Search results for: risk estimation.

Authors: Y. Shpungin

Abstract:

Estimating the lifetime distribution of computer networks in which nodes and links exist in time and are bound for failure is very useful in various applications. This problem is known to be NP-hard. In this paper we present efficient combinatorial approaches to Monte Carlo estimation of network lifetime distribution. We also present some simulation results.

Keywords: Combinatorial spectrum, Monte Carlo, Networklifetime, Unreliable nodes and edges.

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Authors: Jing Wu, Wei Lv, Yibing Li, Yuanfan You

Abstract:

The separation of speech signals has become a research hotspot in the field of signal processing in recent years. It has many applications and influences in teleconferencing, hearing aids, speech recognition of machines and so on. The sounds received are usually noisy. The issue of identifying the sounds of interest and obtaining clear sounds in such an environment becomes a problem worth exploring, that is, the problem of blind source separation. This paper focuses on the under-determined blind source separation (UBSS). Sparse component analysis is generally used for the problem of under-determined blind source separation. The method is mainly divided into two parts. Firstly, the clustering algorithm is used to estimate the mixing matrix according to the observed signals. Then the signal is separated based on the known mixing matrix. In this paper, the problem of mixing matrix estimation is studied. This paper proposes an improved algorithm to estimate the mixing matrix for speech signals in the UBSS model. The traditional potential algorithm is not accurate for the mixing matrix estimation, especially for low signal-to noise ratio (SNR).In response to this problem, this paper considers the idea of an improved potential function method to estimate the mixing matrix. The algorithm not only avoids the inuence of insufficient prior information in traditional clustering algorithm, but also improves the estimation accuracy of mixing matrix. This paper takes the mixing of four speech signals into two channels as an example. The results of simulations show that the approach in this paper not only improves the accuracy of estimation, but also applies to any mixing matrix.

Keywords: Clustering algorithm, potential function, speech signal, the UBSS model.

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Authors: M. Bastanfard, S. Jafari, B.Jalaeian

Abstract:

Ultrasound images are very useful diagnostic tool to distinguish benignant from malignant masses of the breast. However, there is a considerable overlap between benignancy and malignancy in ultrasonic images which makes it difficult to interpret. In this paper, a new noise removal algorithm was used to improve the images and classification process. The masses are classified by wavelet transform's coefficients, morphological and textural features as a novel feature set for this goal. The Bayesian estimation theory is used to classify the tissues in three classes according to their features.

Keywords: Bayesian estimation theory, breast, ultrasound, wavelet.

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Authors: R. Suzana, T. Wardah, A.B. Sahol Hamid

Abstract:

The use of radar in Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) for radar-rainfall measurement is significantly beneficial. Radar has advantages in terms of high spatial and temporal condition in rainfall measurement and also forecasting. In Malaysia, radar application in QPE is still new and needs to be explored. This paper focuses on the Z/R derivation works of radarrainfall estimation based on rainfall classification. The works developed new Z/R relationships for Klang River Basin in Selangor area for three different general classes of rain events, namely low (<10mm/hr), moderate (>10mm/hr, <30mm/hr) and heavy (>30mm/hr) and also on more specific rain types during monsoon seasons. Looking at the high potential of Doppler radar in QPE, the newly formulated Z/R equations will be useful in improving the measurement of rainfall for any hydrological application, especially for flood forecasting.

Keywords: Radar, Quantitative Precipitation Estimation, Z/R development, flood forecasting

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Authors: Morakot Worachairungreung

Abstract:

The objectives of the research are to study patterns of fire location distribution and develop techniques of Geographic Information System application in fire risk assessment for fire planning and management. Fire risk assessment was based on two factors: the vulnerability factor such as building material types, building height, building density and capacity for mitigation factor such as accessibility by road, distance to fire station, distance to hydrants and it was obtained from four groups of stakeholders including firemen, city planners, local government officers and local residents. Factors obtained from all stakeholders were converted into Raster data of GIS and then were superimposed on the data in order to prepare fire risk map of the area showing level of fire risk ranging from high to low. The level of fire risk was obtained from weighted mean of each factor based on the stakeholders. Weighted mean for each factor was obtained by Analytical Hierarchy Analysis.

Keywords: Fire Risk Assessment, Geographic Information System: GIS, Raster Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Analysis.

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Authors: Akinola Ikudayisi, Josiah Adeyemo

Abstract:

The correct estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETₒ) is required for effective irrigation water resources planning and management. However, there are some variables that must be considered while estimating and modeling ETₒ. This study therefore determines the multivariate analysis of correlated variables involved in the estimation and modeling of ETₒ at Vaalharts irrigation scheme (VIS) in South Africa using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique. Weather and meteorological data between 1994 and 2014 were obtained both from South African Weather Service (SAWS) and Agricultural Research Council (ARC) in South Africa for this study. Average monthly data of minimum and maximum temperature (°C), rainfall (mm), relative humidity (%), and wind speed (m/s) were the inputs to the PCA-based model, while ETₒ is the output. PCA technique was adopted to extract the most important information from the dataset and also to analyze the relationship between the five variables and ETₒ. This is to determine the most significant variables affecting ETₒ estimation at VIS. From the model performances, two principal components with a variance of 82.7% were retained after the eigenvector extraction. The results of the two principal components were compared and the model output shows that minimum temperature, maximum temperature and windspeed are the most important variables in ETₒ estimation and modeling at VIS. In order words, ETₒ increases with temperature and windspeed. Other variables such as rainfall and relative humidity are less important and cannot be used to provide enough information about ETₒ estimation at VIS. The outcome of this study has helped to reduce input variable dimensionality from five to the three most significant variables in ETₒ modelling at VIS, South Africa.

Keywords: Irrigation, principal component analysis, reference evapotranspiration, Vaalharts.

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Authors: Maithem Al-Saadi, Min An

Abstract:

During airport planning and design stages, the major issues of capacity and safety in construction and operation of an airport need to be taken into consideration. The airside of an airport is a major and critical infrastructure that usually consists of runway(s), taxiway system, and apron(s) etc., which have to be designed according to the international standards and recommendations, and local limitations to accommodate the forecasted demands. However, in many cases, airport airsides are suffering from unexpected risks that occurred during airport operations. Therefore, safety risk assessment should be applied in the planning and design of airsides to cope with the probability of risks and their consequences, and to make decisions to reduce the risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based on safety risk assessment. This paper presents a combination approach of Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to develop a risk analysis model for safety risk assessment. An illustrated example is used to the demonstrate risk assessment process on how the design of an airside in an airport can be analysed by using the proposed safety design risk assessment model.

Keywords: Airport airside planning and design, design for safety, fuzzy reasoning approach, fuzzy AHP, risk assessment.

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Authors: Chung-Hung Tsai

Abstract:

Global environmental changes lead to increased frequency and scale of natural disaster, Taiwan is under the influence of global warming and extreme weather. Therefore, the vulnerability was increased and variability and complexity of disasters is relatively enhanced. The purpose of this study is to consider the source and magnitude of hazard characteristics on the tourism industry. Using modern risk management concepts, integration of related domestic and international basic research, this goes beyond the Taiwan typhoon disaster risk assessment model and evaluation of loss. This loss evaluation index system considers the impact of extreme weather, in particular heavy rain on the tourism industry in Taiwan. Consider the extreme climate of the compound impact of disaster for the tourism industry; we try to make multi-hazard risk assessment model, strategies and suggestions. Related risk analysis results are expected to provide government department, the tourism industry asset owners, insurance companies and banking include tourist disaster risk necessary information to help its tourism industry for effective natural disaster risk management.

Keywords: Tourism industry, extreme weather, multi-hazard, vulnerability analysis, loss exceeding probability, risk management.

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Authors: A. Pontrandolfi, G. Enjolras, F. Capitanio

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The study analyses the strategies Italian farmers use to cope with the risks that face their production. We specifically explore the potential and the limitations of the economic tools for climatic risk management in agriculture of the Common Agricultural Policy 2014-2020, that foresees contributions for economic tools for risk management, in relation to farms’ needs, exposure and vulnerability of agricultural areas to climatic risk. We consider at the farm level approaches to hedge risks in terms of the use of technical tools (agricultural practices, pesticides, fertilizers, irrigation) and economic/financial instruments (insurances, etc.). We develop cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses as well as analyses of correlation that underline the main differences between the way farms adapt their structure and management towards risk. The results show a preference for technical tools, despite the presence of important public aids on economic tools such as insurances. Therefore, there is a strong need for a more effective and integrated risk management policy scheme. Synergies between economic tools and risk reduction actions of a more technical, structural and management nature (production diversification, irrigation infrastructures, technological and management innovations and formation-information-consultancy, etc.) are emphasized.

Keywords: Agriculture and climate change, climatic risk management, insurance schemes.

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Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

Abstract:

The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: Airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty.

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Authors: Dinesh Rao, M.G.M. Khan, Sabiha Khan

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Calibration estimation is a method of adjusting the original design weights to improve the survey estimates by using auxiliary information such as the known population total (or mean) of the auxiliary variables. A calibration estimator uses calibrated weights that are determined to minimize a given distance measure to the original design weights while satisfying a set of constraints related to the auxiliary information. In this paper, we propose a new multivariate calibration estimator for the population mean in the stratified sampling design, which incorporates information available for more than one auxiliary variable. The problem of determining the optimum calibrated weights is formulated as a Mathematical Programming Problem (MPP) that is solved using the Lagrange multiplier technique.

Keywords: Calibration estimation, Stratified sampling, Multivariate auxiliary information, Mathematical programming problem, Lagrange multiplier technique.

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater.

In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: Drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement.

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Authors: Siripen Yiamjanya, Kevin Wongleedee

Abstract:

Food safety is an important concern for holiday makers in foreign and unfamiliar tourist destinations. In fact, risk from food in these tourist destinations has an influence on tourist perception. This risk can potentially affect physical health and lead to an inability to pursue planned activities. The objective of this paper was to compare foreign tourists- demographics including gender, age and education level, with the level of perceived risk towards food safety. A total of 222 foreign tourists during their stay at Khao San Road in Bangkok were used as the sample. Independent- samples ttest, analysis of variance, and Least Significant Difference or LSD post hoc test were utilized. The findings revealed that there were few demographic differences in level of perceived risk among the foreign tourists. The post hoc test indicated a significant difference among the old and the young tourists, and between the higher and lower level of education. Ranks of tourists- perceived risk towards food safety unveiled some interesting results. Tourists- perceived risk of food safety in established restaurants can be ranked as i) cleanliness of dining utensils, ii) sanitation of food preparation area, and iii) cleanliness of food seasoning and ingredients. Whereas, the tourists- perceived risk of food safety in street food and drink can be ranked as i) cleanliness of stalls and pushcarts, ii) cleanliness of food sold, and iii) personal hygiene of street food hawkers or vendors.

Keywords: Food Safety, Foreign Tourists, Perceived Risk, Khao San Road.

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Authors: Chan Hee Park, Arim Lee, Jung Min Lee, Joo Hyun Moon

Abstract:

Accident in spent fuel pool (SFP) of Fukushima Daiichi Unit 4 showed the importance of continuous monitoring of the key environmental parameters such as water temperature, water level, and radiation level in the SFP at accident conditions. Because the SFP water temperature is one of the key parameters indicating SFP conditions, its behavior at accident conditions shall be understood to prepare appropriate measures. This study estimated temporal change in the SFP water temperature at Kori Unit 1 with 587 MWe for 1 hour after initiation of a loss-of-pool-cooling accident. For the estimation, ANSYS CFX 13.0 code was used. The estimation showed that the increasing rate of the water temperature was 3.90C per hour and the SFP water temperature could reach 1000C in 25.6 hours after the initiation of loss-of-pool-cooling accident.

Keywords: Spent fuel pool, water temperature, Kori Unit 1, a loss-of-pool-cooling accident.

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Authors: H. Bakhshi, E. Khayyamian

Abstract:

Cognitive radios have been recognized as one of the most promising technologies dealing with the scarcity of the radio spectrum. In cognitive radio systems, secondary users are allowed to utilize the frequency bands of primary users when the bands are idle. Hence, how to accurately detect the idle frequency bands has attracted many researchers’ interest. Detection performance is sensitive toward noise power and gain fluctuation. Since signal to noise ratio (SNR) between primary user and secondary users are not the same and change over the time, SNR and noise power estimation is essential. In this paper, we present a cooperative spectrum sensing algorithm using SNR estimation to improve detection performance in the real situation.

Keywords: Cognitive radio, cooperative spectrum sensing, energy detection, SNR estimation, spectrum sensing, Rayleigh fading channel.

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Authors: A. Falsafain, S. M. Taheri, M. Mashinchi

Abstract:

Using a set of confidence intervals, we develop a common approach, to construct a fuzzy set as an estimator for unknown parameters in statistical models. We investigate a method to derive the explicit and unique membership function of such fuzzy estimators. The proposed method has been used to derive the fuzzy estimators of the parameters of a Normal distribution and some functions of parameters of two Normal distributions, as well as the parameters of the Exponential and Poisson distributions.

Keywords: Confidence interval. Fuzzy number. Fuzzy estimation.

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Authors: Shih-Hsu Wang, Yuan-Yuan Cheng, Ming-Tsung Lee, Wei-Chih Wang

Abstract:

Determining reasonable fees is the main objective of designing the cost estimation and payment systems for consultant contracts. However, project clients utilize different cost estimation and payment systems because of their varying views on the reasonableness of consultant fees. This study reviews the cost estimation and payment systems of consultant contracts for five countries, including the US (Washington State Department of Transportation), Japan (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism), China (Engineering Design Charging Standard) and UK (Her Majesty's Treasure). Specifically, this work investigates the budgeting process, contractor selection method, contractual price negotiation process, cost review, and cost-control concept of the systems used in these countries. The main finding indicates that that project client-s view on whether the fee is high will affect the way he controls it. In the US, the fee is commonly considered to be high. As a result, stringent auditing system (low flexibility given to the consultant) is then applied. In the UK, the fee is viewed to be low by comparing it to the total life-cycle project cost. Thus, a system that has high flexibility in budgeting and cost reviewing is given to the consultant. In terms of the flexibility allowed for the consultant, the systems applied in Japan and China fall between those of the US and UK. Both the US and UK systems are helpful in determining a reasonable fee. However, in the US system, rigid auditing standards must be established and additional cost-audit manpower is required. In the UK system, sufficient historical cost data should be needed to evaluate the reasonableness of the consultant-s proposed fee

Keywords: Consultant Services, Cost Estimation and Payment System, Payment Flexibility, Cost-control Concept

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

Abstract:

Electricity has an indispensable role in human daily life, technological development and economy. It is a special product or service that should be instantaneously generated and consumed. Sources of the world are limited so that effective and efficient use of them is very important not only for human life and environment but also for technological and economic development. Competitive electricity market is one of the important way that provides suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. Besides benefits, it brings along some risks that should be carefully managed by a market player like Electricity Generation Company. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Value at Risk methods for case studies. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and the portfolio performance has been evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and compared with conventional approach. Biennial historical electricity price data of Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: Electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management, Sharpe ratio, value at risk.

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

Abstract:

Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: Attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cyber-security, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005.

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Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

Abstract:

Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: Ebola, Epidemic Risk, Medical Ethics, Medical Humanities.

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Authors: Lamia Hammadi, Abdellah Ait Ouhman, Aomar Ibourk

Abstract:

It is widely assumed that the case of Customs Supply Chain is classified as a complex system, due to not only the variety and large number of actors, but also their complex structural links, and the interactions between these actors, that’s why this system is subject to various types of Risks. The economic, political and social impacts of those risks are highly detrimental to countries, businesses and the public, for this reason, Risk management in the customs supply chain is becoming a crucial issue to ensure the sustainability, security and safety. The main characteristic of customs risk management approach is determining which goods and means of transport should be examined? To what extend? And where future compliance resources should be directed? The purposes of this article are, firstly to deal with the concept of customs supply chain, secondly present our risk management approach based on Cross Activity Based Costing (ABC) Method as an interactive tool to support decision making in customs risk management. Finally, analysis of case study of Moroccan customs to putting theory into practice and will thus draw together the various elements of a structured and efficient risk management approach.

Keywords: Cross ABC Method, Customs Supply Chain, Risk, Risk Management.

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Authors: Azhar Hussain, Kashif Shahzad, Chunming Tang

Abstract:

this paper gives a novel approach towards real-time speed estimation of multiple traffic vehicles using fuzzy logic and image processing techniques with proper arrangement of camera parameters. The described algorithm consists of several important steps. First, the background is estimated by computing median over time window of specific frames. Second, the foreground is extracted using fuzzy similarity approach (FSA) between estimated background pixels and the current frame pixels containing foreground and background. Third, the traffic lanes are divided into two parts for both direction vehicles for parallel processing. Finally, the speeds of vehicles are estimated by Maximum a Posterior Probability (MAP) estimator. True ground speed is determined by utilizing infrared sensors for three different vehicles and the results are compared to the proposed algorithm with an accuracy of ± 0.74 kmph.

Keywords: Defuzzification, Fuzzy similarity approach, lane cropping, Maximum a Posterior Probability (MAP) estimator, Speed estimation

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Authors: Hironori Kakuta, Kajiro Watanabe, Yosuke Kurihara

Abstract:

Water leakage is a serious problem in the maintenance of a waterworks facility. Monitoring the water flow rate is one way to locate leakage. However, conventional flowmeters such as the wet-type flowmeter and the clamp-on type ultrasonic flowmeter require additional construction for their installation and are therefore quite expensive. This paper proposes a novel estimation system for the flow rate in a water pipeline, which employs a vibration sensor. This assembly can be attached to any water pipeline without the need for additional high-cost construction. The vibration sensor is designed based on a condenser microphone. This sensor detects vibration caused by water flowing through a pipeline. It is possible to estimate the water flow rate by measuring the amplitude of the output signal from the vibration sensor. We confirmed the validity of the proposed sensing system experimentally.

Keywords: Condenser microphone, Flow rate estimation, Piping vibration, Water pipe.

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Authors: V.K.Ananthashayana, Pushpa.M.K

Abstract:

In this paper a new Joint Adaptive Block Matching Search (JABMS) algorithm is proposed to generate motion vector and search a best match macro block by classifying the motion vector movement based on prediction error. Diamond Search (DS) algorithm generates high estimation accuracy when motion vector is small and Adaptive Rood Pattern Search (ARPS) algorithm can handle large motion vector but is not very accurate. The proposed JABMS algorithm which is capable of considering both small and large motions gives improved estimation accuracy and the computational cost is reduced by 15.2 times compared with Exhaustive Search (ES) algorithm and is 1.3 times less compared with Diamond search algorithm.

Keywords: Adaptive rood pattern search, Block matching, Diamond search, Joint Adaptive search, Motion estimation.

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

Abstract:

This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: Defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, Generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), Risk factors.

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Authors: F. M. Nor, N. Abdullah, Al-M. Mustapa, L. Q. Wen, N. A. Faisal, D. A. A. Ahmad Nazari

Abstract:

Estimation of stature is an important step in developing a biological profile for human identification. It may provide a valuable indicator for unknown individual in a population. The aim of this study was to analyses the relationship between stature and lower limb dimensions in the Malaysian population. The sample comprised 100 corpses, which included 69 males and 31 females between age ranges of 20 to 90 years old. The parameters measured were stature, thigh length, lower leg length, leg length, foot length, foot height and foot breadth. Results showed that mean values in males were significantly higher than those in females (P < 0.05). There were significant correlations between lower limb dimensions and stature. Cross-validation of the equation on 100 individuals showed close approximation between known stature and estimated stature. It was concluded that lower limb dimensions were useful for estimation of stature, which should be validated in future studies. 

Keywords: Forensic anthropology population data, lower leg length, Malaysian, stature.

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Authors: Larisa N. Pop, Irina M. Ban

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This paper aims to present the main instruments used in the economic literature for measuring the price risk, pointing out on the advantages brought by the conditional variance in this respect. The theoretical approach will be exemplified by elaborating an EGARCH model for the price returns of wheat, both on Romanian and on international market. To our knowledge, no previous empirical research, either on price risk measurement for the Romanian markets or studies that use the ARIMA-EGARCH methodology, have been conducted. After estimating the corresponding models, the paper will compare the estimated conditional variance on the two markets.

Keywords: conditional variance, GARCH models, price risk, volatility

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Authors: Samuel Capintero, Ole H. Petersen

Abstract:

This paper examines the utilization of public-private partnerships for the building and operation of wastewater treatment plants. Our research focuses on risk allocation in this kind of projects. Our analysis builds on more than hundred wastewater treatment plants built and operated through PPP projects in Aragon (Spain). The paper illustrates the consequences of an inadequate management of construction risk and an unsuitable transfer of demand risk in wastewater treatment plants. It also shows that the involvement of many public bodies at local, regional and national level further increases the complexity of this kind of projects and make time delays more likely.

Keywords: Wastewater, treatment plants, PPP, construction.

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Authors: Suresh Palla, Suresh Vanguri, Anitha, B. N. Mohapatra

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This paper presents the results of the study on the estimation of fly ash, slag and cement contents in blended and composite cements by selective dissolution method. Types of cement samples investigated include Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) with fly ash as performance improver, OPC with slag as performance improver, Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC), Portland Slag Cement (PSC) and composite cement confirming to respective Indian Standards. Slag and OPC contents in PSC were estimated by selectively dissolving OPC in stage 1 and selectively dissolving slag in stage 2. In the case of composite cement sample, the percentage of cement, slag and fly ash were estimated systematically by selective dissolution of cement, slag and fly ash in three stages. In the first stage, cement is dissolved and separated by leaving the residue of slag and fly ash, designated as R1. The second stage involves gravimetric estimation of fractions of OPC, residue and selective dissolution of fly ash and slag contents. Fly ash content, R2 was estimated through gravimetric analysis. Thereafter, the difference between the R1 and R2 is considered as slag content. The obtained results of cement, fly ash and slag using selective dissolution method showed 10% of standard deviation with the corresponding percentage of respective constituents. The results suggest that this selective dissolution method can be successfully used for estimation of OPC and Supplementary Cementitious material (SCM) contents in different types of cements.

Keywords: Selective dissolution method, fly ash, Ground Granulated blast furnace slag, EDTA.

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Authors: Ming-Hui Lee, Tsung-Chien Chen, Tsu-Ping Yu, Horng-Yuan Jang

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The innovative intelligent fuzzy weighted input estimation method (FWIEM) can be applied to the inverse heat transfer conduction problem (IHCP) to estimate the unknown time-varying heat flux of the multilayer materials as presented in this paper. The feasibility of this method can be verified by adopting the temperature measurement experiment. The experiment modular may be designed by using the copper sample which is stacked up 4 aluminum samples with different thicknesses. Furthermore, the bottoms of copper samples are heated by applying the standard heat source, and the temperatures on the tops of aluminum are measured by using the thermocouples. The temperature measurements are then regarded as the inputs into the presented method to estimate the heat flux in the bottoms of copper samples. The influence on the estimation caused by the temperature measurement of the sample with different thickness, the processing noise covariance Q, the weighting factor γ , the sampling time interval Δt , and the space discrete interval Δx , will be investigated by utilizing the experiment verification. The results show that this method is efficient and robust to estimate the unknown time-varying heat input of the multilayer materials.

Keywords: Multilayer Materials, Input Estimation Method, IHCP, Heat Flux.

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