Search results for: link breaking probability
752 Analytical Slope Stability Analysis Based on the Statistical Characterization of Soil Shear Strength
Authors: Bernardo C. P. Albuquerque, Darym J. F. Campos
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Increasing our ability to solve complex engineering problems is directly related to the processing capacity of computers. By means of such equipments, one is able to fast and accurately run numerical algorithms. Besides the increasing interest in numerical simulations, probabilistic approaches are also of great importance. This way, statistical tools have shown their relevance to the modelling of practical engineering problems. In general, statistical approaches to such problems consider that the random variables involved follow a normal distribution. This assumption tends to provide incorrect results when skew data is present since normal distributions are symmetric about their means. Thus, in order to visualize and quantify this aspect, 9 statistical distributions (symmetric and skew) have been considered to model a hypothetical slope stability problem. The data modeled is the friction angle of a superficial soil in Brasilia, Brazil. Despite the apparent universality, the normal distribution did not qualify as the best fit. In the present effort, data obtained in consolidated-drained triaxial tests and saturated direct shear tests have been modeled and used to analytically derive the probability density function (PDF) of the safety factor of a hypothetical slope based on Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion. Therefore, based on this analysis, it is possible to explicitly derive the failure probability considering the friction angle as a random variable. Furthermore, it is possible to compare the stability analysis when the friction angle is modelled as a Dagum distribution (distribution that presented the best fit to the histogram) and as a Normal distribution. This comparison leads to relevant differences when analyzed in light of the risk management.Keywords: Statistical slope stability analysis, Skew distributions, Probability of failure, Functions of random variables.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1545751 Convex Restrictions for Outage Constrained MU-MISO Downlink under Imperfect Channel State Information
Authors: A. Preetha Priyadharshini, S. B. M. Priya
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In this paper, we consider the MU-MISO downlink scenario, under imperfect channel state information (CSI). The main issue in imperfect CSI is to keep the probability of each user achievable outage rate below the given threshold level. Such a rate outage constraints present significant and analytical challenges. There are many probabilistic methods are used to minimize the transmit optimization problem under imperfect CSI. Here, decomposition based large deviation inequality and Bernstein type inequality convex restriction methods are used to perform the optimization problem under imperfect CSI. These methods are used for achieving improved output quality and lower complexity. They provide a safe tractable approximation of the original rate outage constraints. Based on these method implementations, performance has been evaluated in the terms of feasible rate and average transmission power. The simulation results are shown that all the two methods offer significantly improved outage quality and lower computational complexity.
Keywords: Imperfect channel state information, outage probability, multiuser- multi input single output.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1114750 Model Parameters Estimating on Lyman–Kutcher–Burman Normal Tissue Complication Probability for Xerostomia on Head and Neck Cancer
Authors: Tsair-Fwu Lee , Hui-Min Ting , Pei-Ju Chao, Jing-Chuan Jiang, Min-Yuan Chao, Wen-Cheng Chen, Long-Chang Chen, Jia-Ming Wu
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The purpose of this study is to derive parameters estimating for the Lyman–Kutcher–Burman (LKB) normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model using analysis of scintigraphy assessments and quality of life (QoL) measurement questionnaires for the parotid gland (xerostomia). In total, 31 patients with head-and-neck (HN) cancer were enrolled. Salivary excretion factor (SEF) and EORTC QLQ-H&N35 questionnaires datasets are used for the NTCP modeling to describe the incidence of grade 4 xerostomia. Assuming that n= 1, NTCP fitted parameters are given as TD50= 43.6 Gy, m= 0.18 in SEF analysis, and as TD50= 44.1 Gy, m= 0.11 in QoL measurements, respectively. SEF and QoL datasets can validate the Quantitative Analyses of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) guidelines well, resulting in NPV-s of 100% for the both datasets and suggests that the QUANTEC 25/20Gy gland-spared guidelines are suitable for clinical used for the HN cohort to effectively avoid xerostomia.Keywords: HN, NTCP, SEF, QoL, QUANTEC
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2101749 Wireless Transmission of Big Data Using Novel Secure Algorithm
Authors: K. Thiagarajan, K. Saranya, A. Veeraiah, B. Sudha
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This paper presents a novel algorithm for secure, reliable and flexible transmission of big data in two hop wireless networks using cooperative jamming scheme. Two hop wireless networks consist of source, relay and destination nodes. Big data has to transmit from source to relay and from relay to destination by deploying security in physical layer. Cooperative jamming scheme determines transmission of big data in more secure manner by protecting it from eavesdroppers and malicious nodes of unknown location. The novel algorithm that ensures secure and energy balance transmission of big data, includes selection of data transmitting region, segmenting the selected region, determining probability ratio for each node (capture node, non-capture and eavesdropper node) in every segment, evaluating the probability using binary based evaluation. If it is secure transmission resume with the two- hop transmission of big data, otherwise prevent the attackers by cooperative jamming scheme and transmit the data in two-hop transmission.Keywords: Big data, cooperative jamming, energy balance, physical layer, two-hop transmission, wireless security.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2180748 MC and IC – What Is the Relationship?
Authors: O. V. Missioura
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MC (Management Control)& IC (Internal Control) – what is the relationship? (an empirical study into the definitions between MC and IC) based on the wider considerations of Internal Control and Management Control terms, attention is focused not only on the financial aspects but also more on the soft aspects of the business, such as culture, behaviour, standards and values. The limited considerations of Management Control are focused mainly in the hard, financial aspects of business operation. The definitions of Management Control and Internal Control are often used interchangeably and the results of this empirical study reveal that Management Control is part of Internal Control, there is no causal link between the two concepts. Based on the interpretation of the respondents, the term Management Control has moved from a broad term to a more limited term with the soft aspects of the influencing of behaviour, performance measurements, incentives and culture. This paper is an exploratory study based on qualitative research and on a qualitative matrix method analysis of the thematic definition of the terms Management Control and Internal Control.
Keywords: Management Control (MC), Internal Control (IC), definition, causal link, COSO 1992/2004, CoCo (Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants), Russian CG code (КОДЕКС) , limited and broad concepts MC and IC.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1790747 The Contribution of Growth Rate to the Pathogenicity of Candida spp.
Authors: Shu-Ying Marissa Pang, Stephen Tristram, Simon Brown
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Fungal infections are becoming more common and the range of susceptible individuals has expanded. While Candida albicans remains the most common infective species, other Candida spp. are becoming increasingly significant. In a range of large-scale studies of candidaemia between 1999 and 2006, about 52% of 9717 cases involved C. albicans, about 30% involved either C. glabrata or C. parapsilosis and less than 15% involved C. tropicalis, C. krusei or C. guilliermondii. However, the probability of mortality within 30 days of infection with a particular species was at least 40% for C. tropicalis, C. albicans, C. glabrata and C. krusei and only 22% for C. parapsilopsis. Clinical isolates of Candida spp. grew at rates ranging from 1.65 h-1 to 4.9 h-1. Three species (C. krusei, C. albicans and C. glabrata) had relatively high growth rates (μm > 4 h-1), C. tropicalis and C. dubliniensis grew moderately quickly (Ôëê 3 h-1) and C. parapsilosis and C. guilliermondii grew slowly (< 2 h-1). Based on these data, the log of the odds of mortality within 30 days of diagnosis was linearly related to μm. From this the underlying probability of mortality is 0.13 (95% CI: 0.10-0.17) and it increases by about 0.09 ± 0.02 for each unit increase in μm. Given that the overall crude mortality is about 0.36, the growth of Candida spp. approximately doubles the rate, consistent with the results of larger case-matched studies of candidaemia.Keywords: Candida spp., candidiasis, growth, pathogenicity.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1592746 Performance Evaluation of QoS Based Forwarding and Non Forwarding Energetic Node Selection Algorithm for Reducing the Flooding in Multihop Routing in Highly Dynamic MANET
Authors: R. Reka, R. S. D. Wahidabanu
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The aim of this paper is to propose a novel technique to guarantee Quality of Service (QoS) in a highly dynamic environment. The MANET changes its topology dynamically as the nodes are moved frequently. This will cause link failure between mobile nodes. MANET cannot ensure reliability without delay. The relay node is selected based on achieving QoS in previous transmission. It considers one more factor Connection Existence Period (CEP) to ensure reliability. CEP is to find out the period during that connection exists between the nodes. The node with highest CEP becomes a next relay node. The relay node is selected dynamically to avoid frequent failure. The bandwidth of each link changed dynamically based on service rate and request rate. This paper proposes Active bandwidth setting up algorithm to guarantee the QoS. The series of results obtained by using the Network Simulator (NS-2) demonstrate the viability of our proposed techniques.
Keywords: Bandwidth, Connection Existence Period (CEP), Mobile Adhoc Network (MANET), Quality of Service (QoS), Relay node.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2107745 A Recognition Method of Ancient Yi Script Based on Deep Learning
Authors: Shanxiong Chen, Xu Han, Xiaolong Wang, Hui Ma
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Yi is an ethnic group mainly living in mainland China, with its own spoken and written language systems, after development of thousands of years. Ancient Yi is one of the six ancient languages in the world, which keeps a record of the history of the Yi people and offers documents valuable for research into human civilization. Recognition of the characters in ancient Yi helps to transform the documents into an electronic form, making their storage and spreading convenient. Due to historical and regional limitations, research on recognition of ancient characters is still inadequate. Thus, deep learning technology was applied to the recognition of such characters. Five models were developed on the basis of the four-layer convolutional neural network (CNN). Alpha-Beta divergence was taken as a penalty term to re-encode output neurons of the five models. Two fully connected layers fulfilled the compression of the features. Finally, at the softmax layer, the orthographic features of ancient Yi characters were re-evaluated, their probability distributions were obtained, and characters with features of the highest probability were recognized. Tests conducted show that the method has achieved higher precision compared with the traditional CNN model for handwriting recognition of the ancient Yi.
Keywords: Recognition, CNN, convolutional neural network, Yi character, divergence.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 747744 Comparison of Different k-NN Models for Speed Prediction in an Urban Traffic Network
Authors: Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu
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A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.Keywords: Big data, k-NN, machine learning, traffic speed prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1376743 A Kernel Based Rejection Method for Supervised Classification
Authors: Abdenour Bounsiar, Edith Grall, Pierre Beauseroy
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In this paper we are interested in classification problems with a performance constraint on error probability. In such problems if the constraint cannot be satisfied, then a rejection option is introduced. For binary labelled classification, a number of SVM based methods with rejection option have been proposed over the past few years. All of these methods use two thresholds on the SVM output. However, in previous works, we have shown on synthetic data that using thresholds on the output of the optimal SVM may lead to poor results for classification tasks with performance constraint. In this paper a new method for supervised classification with rejection option is proposed. It consists in two different classifiers jointly optimized to minimize the rejection probability subject to a given constraint on error rate. This method uses a new kernel based linear learning machine that we have recently presented. This learning machine is characterized by its simplicity and high training speed which makes the simultaneous optimization of the two classifiers computationally reasonable. The proposed classification method with rejection option is compared to a SVM based rejection method proposed in recent literature. Experiments show the superiority of the proposed method.Keywords: rejection, Chow's rule, error-reject tradeoff, SupportVector Machine.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1444742 Some Investigations on Higher Mathematics Scores for Chinese University Student
Authors: Xun Ge, Jingju Qian
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To investigate some relations between higher mathe¬matics scores in Chinese graduate student entrance examination and calculus (resp. linear algebra, probability statistics) scores in subject's completion examination of Chinese university, we select 20 students as a sample, take higher mathematics score as a decision attribute and take calculus score, linear algebra score, probability statistics score as condition attributes. In this paper, we are based on rough-set theory (Rough-set theory is a logic-mathematical method proposed by Z. Pawlak. In recent years, this theory has been widely implemented in the many fields of natural science and societal science.) to investigate importance of condition attributes with respective to decision attribute and strength of condition attributes supporting decision attribute. Results of this investigation will be helpful for university students to raise higher mathematics scores in Chinese graduate student entrance examination.
Keywords: Rough set, higher mathematics scores, decision attribute, condition attribute.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1084741 New Application of EHTA for the Generalized(2+1)-Dimensional Nonlinear Evolution Equations
Authors: Mohammad Taghi Darvishi, Maliheh Najafi, Mohammad Najafi
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In this paper, the generalized (2+1)-dimensional Calogero-Bogoyavlenskii-Schiff (shortly CBS) equations are investigated. We employ the Hirota-s bilinear method to obtain the bilinear form of CBS equations. Then by the idea of extended homoclinic test approach (shortly EHTA), some exact soliton solutions including breather type solutions are presented.
Keywords: EHTA, (2+1)-dimensional CBS equations, (2+1)-dimensional breaking solution equation, Hirota's bilinear form.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1487740 Chemical Destabilization on Water in Crude Oil Emulsions
Authors: Abdurahman H. N., M. Nuraini
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Experimental data are presented to show the influence of different types of chemical demulsifier on the stability and demulsification of emulsions. Three groups of demulsifier with different functional groups were used in this work namely amines, alcohol and polyhydric alcohol. The results obtained in this study have exposed the capability of chemical breaking agents in destabilization of water in crude oil emulsions. From the present study, found that molecular weight of the demulsifier were influent the capability of the emulsion to separate.
Keywords: Demulsification, emulsions, stability, breakingagent, destabilization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6082739 Reliability of Chute-Feeders in Automatic Machines of High Production Capacity
Authors: R. Usubamatov, A. Usubamatova, S. Hussain
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Modern highly automated production systems faces problems of reliability. Machine function reliability results in changes of productivity rate and efficiency use of expensive industrial facilities. Predicting of reliability has become an important research and involves complex mathematical methods and calculation. The reliability of high productivity technological automatic machines that consists of complex mechanical, electrical and electronic components is important. The failure of these units results in major economic losses of production systems. The reliability of transport and feeding systems for automatic technological machines is also important, because failure of transport leads to stops of technological machines. This paper presents reliability engineering on the feeding system and its components for transporting a complex shape parts to automatic machines. It also discusses about the calculation of the reliability parameters of the feeding unit by applying the probability theory. Equations produced for calculating the limits of the geometrical sizes of feeders and the probability of sticking the transported parts into the chute represents the reliability of feeders as a function of its geometrical parameters.Keywords: Chute-feeder, parts, reliability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1454738 Dynamic Routing to Multiple Destinations in IP Networks using Hybrid Genetic Algorithm (DRHGA)
Authors: K. Vijayalakshmi, S. Radhakrishnan
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In this paper we have proposed a novel dynamic least cost multicast routing protocol using hybrid genetic algorithm for IP networks. Our protocol finds the multicast tree with minimum cost subject to delay, degree, and bandwidth constraints. The proposed protocol has the following features: i. Heuristic local search function has been devised and embedded with normal genetic operation to increase the speed and to get the optimized tree, ii. It is efficient to handle the dynamic situation arises due to either change in the multicast group membership or node / link failure, iii. Two different crossover and mutation probabilities have been used for maintaining the diversity of solution and quick convergence. The simulation results have shown that our proposed protocol generates dynamic multicast tree with lower cost. Results have also shown that the proposed algorithm has better convergence rate, better dynamic request success rate and less execution time than other existing algorithms. Effects of degree and delay constraints have also been analyzed for the multicast tree interns of search success rate.
Keywords: Dynamic Group membership change, Hybrid Genetic Algorithm, Link / node failure, QoS Parameters.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1447737 FEM Simulation of HE Blast-Fragmentation Warhead and the Calculation of Lethal Range
Authors: G. Tanapornraweekit, W. Kulsirikasem
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This paper presents the simulation of fragmentation warhead using a hydrocode, Autodyn. The goal of this research is to determine the lethal range of such a warhead. This study investigates the lethal range of warheads with and without steel balls as preformed fragments. The results from the FE simulation, i.e. initial velocities and ejected spray angles of fragments, are further processed using an analytical approach so as to determine a fragment hit density and probability of kill of a modelled warhead. In order to simulate a plenty of preformed fragments inside a warhead, the model requires expensive computation resources. Therefore, this study attempts to model the problem in an alternative approach by considering an equivalent mass of preformed fragments to the mass of warhead casing. This approach yields approximately 7% and 20% difference of fragment velocities from the analytical results for one and two layers of preformed fragments, respectively. The lethal ranges of the simulated warheads are 42.6 m and 56.5 m for warheads with one and two layers of preformed fragments, respectively, compared to 13.85 m for a warhead without preformed fragment. These lethal ranges are based on the requirement of fragment hit density. The lethal ranges which are based on the probability of kill are 27.5 m, 61 m and 70 m for warheads with no preformed fragment, one and two layers of preformed fragments, respectively.Keywords: Lethal Range, Natural Fragment, Preformed Fragment, Warhead.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4309736 Modal Approach for Decoupling Damage Cost Dependencies in Building Stories
Authors: Haj Najafi Leila, Tehranizadeh Mohsen
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Dependencies between diverse factors involved in probabilistic seismic loss evaluation are recognized to be an imperative issue in acquiring accurate loss estimates. Dependencies among component damage costs could be taken into account considering two partial distinct states of independent or perfectly-dependent for component damage states; however, in our best knowledge, there is no available procedure to take account of loss dependencies in story level. This paper attempts to present a method called "modal cost superposition method" for decoupling story damage costs subjected to earthquake ground motions dealt with closed form differential equations between damage cost and engineering demand parameters which should be solved in complex system considering all stories' cost equations by the means of the introduced "substituted matrixes of mass and stiffness". Costs are treated as probabilistic variables with definite statistic factors of median and standard deviation amounts and a presumed probability distribution. To supplement the proposed procedure and also to display straightforwardness of its application, one benchmark study has been conducted. Acceptable compatibility has been proven for the estimated damage costs evaluated by the new proposed modal and also frequently used stochastic approaches for entire building; however, in story level, insufficiency of employing modification factor for incorporating occurrence probability dependencies between stories has been revealed due to discrepant amounts of dependency between damage costs of different stories. Also, more dependency contribution in occurrence probability of loss could be concluded regarding more compatibility of loss results in higher stories than the lower ones, whereas reduction in incorporation portion of cost modes provides acceptable level of accuracy and gets away from time consuming calculations including some limited number of cost modes in high mode situation.
Keywords: Dependency, story-cost, cost modes, engineering demand parameter.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1017735 Probabilistic Modeling of Network-induced Delays in Networked Control Systems
Authors: Manoj Kumar, A.K. Verma, A. Srividya
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Time varying network induced delays in networked control systems (NCS) are known for degrading control system-s quality of performance (QoP) and causing stability problems. In literature, a control method employing modeling of communication delays as probability distribution, proves to be a better method. This paper focuses on modeling of network induced delays as probability distribution. CAN and MIL-STD-1553B are extensively used to carry periodic control and monitoring data in networked control systems. In literature, methods to estimate only the worst-case delays for these networks are available. In this paper probabilistic network delay model for CAN and MIL-STD-1553B networks are given. A systematic method to estimate values to model parameters from network parameters is given. A method to predict network delay in next cycle based on the present network delay is presented. Effect of active network redundancy and redundancy at node level on network delay and system response-time is also analyzed.Keywords: NCS (networked control system), delay analysis, response-time distribution, worst-case delay, CAN, MIL-STD-1553B, redundancy
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1769734 A Markov Chain Model for Load-Balancing Based and Service Based RAT Selection Algorithms in Heterogeneous Networks
Authors: Abdallah Al Sabbagh
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Next Generation Wireless Network (NGWN) is expected to be a heterogeneous network which integrates all different Radio Access Technologies (RATs) through a common platform. A major challenge is how to allocate users to the most suitable RAT for them. An optimized solution can lead to maximize the efficient use of radio resources, achieve better performance for service providers and provide Quality of Service (QoS) with low costs to users. Currently, Radio Resource Management (RRM) is implemented efficiently for the RAT that it was developed. However, it is not suitable for a heterogeneous network. Common RRM (CRRM) was proposed to manage radio resource utilization in the heterogeneous network. This paper presents a user level Markov model for a three co-located RAT networks. The load-balancing based and service based CRRM algorithms have been studied using the presented Markov model. A comparison for the performance of load-balancing based and service based CRRM algorithms is studied in terms of traffic distribution, new call blocking probability, vertical handover (VHO) call dropping probability and throughput.Keywords: Heterogeneous Wireless Network, Markov chain model, load-balancing based and service based algorithm, CRRM algorithms, Beyond 3G network.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2485733 Flow Duration Curves and Recession Curves Connection through a Mathematical Link
Authors: Elena Carcano, Mirzi Betasolo
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This study helps Public Water Bureaus in giving reliable answers to water concession requests. Rapidly increasing water requests can be supported provided that further uses of a river course are not totally compromised, and environmental features are protected as well. Strictly speaking, a water concession can be considered a continuous drawing from the source and causes a mean annual streamflow reduction. Therefore, deciding if a water concession is appropriate or inappropriate seems to be easily solved by comparing the generic demand to the mean annual streamflow value at disposal. Still, the immediate shortcoming for such a comparison is that streamflow data are information available only for few catchments and, most often, limited to specific sites. Subsequently, comparing the generic water demand to mean daily discharge is indeed far from being completely satisfactory since the mean daily streamflow is greater than the water withdrawal for a long period of a year. Consequently, such a comparison appears to be of little significance in order to preserve the quality and the quantity of the river. In order to overcome such a limit, this study aims to complete the information provided by flow duration curves introducing a link between Flow Duration Curves (FDCs) and recession curves and aims to show the chronological sequence of flows with a particular focus on low flow data. The analysis is carried out on 25 catchments located in North-Eastern Italy for which daily data are provided. The results identify groups of catchments as hydrologically homogeneous, having the lower part of the FDCs (corresponding streamflow interval is streamflow Q between 300 and 335, namely: Q(300), Q(335)) smoothly reproduced by a common recession curve. In conclusion, the results are useful to provide more reliable answers to water request, especially for those catchments which show similar hydrological response and can be used for a focused regionalization approach on low flow data. A mathematical link between streamflow duration curves and recession curves is herein provided, thus furnishing streamflow duration curves information upon a temporal sequence of data. In such a way, by introducing assumptions on recession curves, the chronological sequence upon low flow data can also be attributed to FDCs, which are known to lack this information by nature.
Keywords: Chronological sequence of discharges, recession curves, streamflow duration curves, water concession.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 594732 Automatic Generation Control Design Based on Full State Vector Feedback for a Multi-Area Energy System Connected via Parallel AC/DC Lines
Authors: Gulshan Sharma
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This article presents the design of optimal automatic generation control (AGC) based on full state feedback control for a multi-area interconnected power system. An extra high voltage AC transmission line in parallel with a high voltage DC link is considered as an area interconnection between the areas. The optimal AGC are designed and implemented in the wake of 1% load perturbation in one of the areas and the system dynamic response plots for various system states are obtained to investigate the system dynamic performance. The pattern of closed-loop eigenvalues are also determined to analyze the system stability. From the investigations carried out in the work, it is revealed that the dynamic performance of the system under consideration has an appreciable improvement when a high voltage DC line is paralleled with an extra high voltage AC line as an interconnection between the areas. The investigation of closed-loop eigenvalues reveals that the system stability is ensured in all case studies carried out with the designed optimal AGC.
Keywords: Automatic generation control, area control error, DC link, optimal AGC regulator, closed-loop eigenvalues.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 826731 Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models
Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi
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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.
Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 483730 Exploring the Activity Fabric of an Intelligent Environment with Hierarchical Hidden Markov Theory
Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen
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The Internet of Things (IoT) was designed for widespread convenience. With the smart tag and the sensing network, a large quantity of dynamic information is immediately presented in the IoT. Through the internal communication and interaction, meaningful objects provide real-time services for users. Therefore, the service with appropriate decision-making has become an essential issue. Based on the science of human behavior, this study employed the environment model to record the time sequences and locations of different behaviors and adopted the probability module of the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model for the inference. The statistical analysis was conducted to achieve the following objectives: First, define user behaviors and predict the user behavior routes with the environment model to analyze user purposes. Second, construct the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model according to the logic framework, and establish the sequential intensity among behaviors to get acquainted with the use and activity fabric of the intelligent environment. Third, establish the intensity of the relation between the probability of objects’ being used and the objects. The indicator can describe the possible limitations of the mechanism. As the process is recorded in the information of the system created in this study, these data can be reused to adjust the procedure of intelligent design services.Keywords: Behavior, big data, hierarchical Hidden Markov Model, intelligent object.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 764729 Strategic Leadership and Sustainable Project Management in Enugu, Nigeria
Authors: Nnadi Ezekiel Ejiofor
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The study investigates the connection between strategic leadership and project management sustainability, with an emphasis on building projects Nigeria. The study set out to accomplish two specific goals: first, it sought to establish a link between creative project management and resource efficiency in construction projects in Nigeria; and second, it sought to establish a link between innovative thinking and waste minimization in those same projects. A structured questionnaire was used to collect primary data from 45 registered construction enterprises in the study area as part of the study's descriptive research approach. Due to the nonparametric nature of the data, Spearman Rank Order Correlation was used to evaluate the acquired data. The findings demonstrate that creative project management had a significant positive impact on resource efficiency in construction projects carried out by project management firms (r =.849; p.001), and that innovative thinking had a significant impact on waste reduction in those same projects (r =.849; p.001). It was determined that strategic leadership had a significant impact on the sustainability of project management, and it was thus advised that project managers should foresee, prepare for, and effectively communicate present and future developments to project staff in order to ensure that the objective of sustainable initiatives, such as recycling and reuse, is implemented in construction projects.
Keywords: Construction, project management, strategic leadership, sustainability, waste reduction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 109728 Breaking the Legacy of Silence: A Feminist Perspective on Therapist Attraction to Clients
Authors: Renata Carneiro, Jody Russon, Allena Moncrief, Erica Wilkins
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Views on therapists- attraction have influenced the ethical and professional development of the mental health fields. Because the majority of therapist attraction literature (63.6%) has been conducted from a psychoanalytic standpoint, approaches to attraction from feminist perspectives have not been adequately developed. Considering the lack of a feminist voice regarding attraction, this article attempts to offer a feminist perspective on this issue. The purpose of this article is to offer a feminist perspective on the phenomenon of attraction in order to raise awareness about the importance of power inequalities, intersectionalities, contextual variables and the need for action in the field.
Keywords: attraction, feminism, power inequality, silence
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2182727 Disaggregation the Daily Rainfall Dataset into Sub-Daily Resolution in the Temperate Oceanic Climate Region
Authors: Mohammad Bakhshi, Firas Al Janabi
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High resolution rain data are very important to fulfill the input of hydrological models. Among models of high-resolution rainfall data generation, the temporal disaggregation was chosen for this study. The paper attempts to generate three different rainfall resolutions (4-hourly, hourly and 10-minutes) from daily for around 20-year record period. The process was done by DiMoN tool which is based on random cascade model and method of fragment. Differences between observed and simulated rain dataset are evaluated with variety of statistical and empirical methods: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), usual statistics, and Exceedance probability. The tool worked well at preserving the daily rainfall values in wet days, however, the generated data are cumulated in a shorter time period and made stronger storms. It is demonstrated that the difference between generated and observed cumulative distribution function curve of 4-hourly datasets is passed the K-S test criteria while in hourly and 10-minutes datasets the P-value should be employed to prove that their differences were reasonable. The results are encouraging considering the overestimation of generated high-resolution rainfall data.
Keywords: DiMoN tool, disaggregation, exceedance probability, Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test, rainfall.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1007726 Energy Detection Based Sensing and Primary User Traffic Classification for Cognitive Radio
Authors: Urvee B. Trivedi, U. D. Dalal
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As wireless communication services grow quickly; the seriousness of spectrum utilization has been on the rise gradually. An emerging technology, cognitive radio has come out to solve today’s spectrum scarcity problem. To support the spectrum reuse functionality, secondary users are required to sense the radio frequency environment, and once the primary users are found to be active, the secondary users are required to vacate the channel within a certain amount of time. Therefore, spectrum sensing is of significant importance. Once sensing is done, different prediction rules apply to classify the traffic pattern of primary user. Primary user follows two types of traffic patterns: periodic and stochastic ON-OFF patterns. A cognitive radio can learn the patterns in different channels over time. Two types of classification methods are discussed in this paper, by considering edge detection and by using autocorrelation function. Edge detection method has a high accuracy but it cannot tolerate sensing errors. Autocorrelation-based classification is applicable in the real environment as it can tolerate some amount of sensing errors.Keywords: Cognitive radio (CR), probability of detection (PD), probability of false alarm (PF), primary User (PU), secondary user (SU), Fast Fourier transform (FFT), signal to noise ratio (SNR).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1470725 Decomposition Method for Neural Multiclass Classification Problem
Authors: H. El Ayech, A. Trabelsi
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In this article we are going to discuss the improvement of the multi classes- classification problem using multi layer Perceptron. The considered approach consists in breaking down the n-class problem into two-classes- subproblems. The training of each two-class subproblem is made independently; as for the phase of test, we are going to confront a vector that we want to classify to all two classes- models, the elected class will be the strongest one that won-t lose any competition with the other classes. Rates of recognition gotten with the multi class-s approach by two-class-s decomposition are clearly better that those gotten by the simple multi class-s approach.Keywords: Artificial neural network, letter-recognition, Multi class Classification, Multi Layer Perceptron.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1571724 Mining Network Data for Intrusion Detection through Naïve Bayesian with Clustering
Authors: Dewan Md. Farid, Nouria Harbi, Suman Ahmmed, Md. Zahidur Rahman, Chowdhury Mofizur Rahman
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Network security attacks are the violation of information security policy that received much attention to the computational intelligence society in the last decades. Data mining has become a very useful technique for detecting network intrusions by extracting useful knowledge from large number of network data or logs. Naïve Bayesian classifier is one of the most popular data mining algorithm for classification, which provides an optimal way to predict the class of an unknown example. It has been tested that one set of probability derived from data is not good enough to have good classification rate. In this paper, we proposed a new learning algorithm for mining network logs to detect network intrusions through naïve Bayesian classifier, which first clusters the network logs into several groups based on similarity of logs, and then calculates the prior and conditional probabilities for each group of logs. For classifying a new log, the algorithm checks in which cluster the log belongs and then use that cluster-s probability set to classify the new log. We tested the performance of our proposed algorithm by employing KDD99 benchmark network intrusion detection dataset, and the experimental results proved that it improves detection rates as well as reduces false positives for different types of network intrusions.Keywords: Clustering, detection rate, false positive, naïveBayesian classifier, network intrusion detection.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 5535723 Detecting Geographically Dispersed Overlay Communities Using Community Networks
Authors: Madhushi Bandara, Dharshana Kasthurirathna, Danaja Maldeniya, Mahendra Piraveenan
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Community detection is an extremely useful technique in understanding the structure and function of a social network. Louvain algorithm, which is based on Newman-Girman modularity optimization technique, is extensively used as a computationally efficient method extract the communities in social networks. It has been suggested that the nodes that are in close geographical proximity have a higher tendency of forming communities. Variants of the Newman-Girman modularity measure such as dist-modularity try to normalize the effect of geographical proximity to extract geographically dispersed communities, at the expense of losing the information about the geographically proximate communities. In this work, we propose a method to extract geographically dispersed communities while preserving the information about the geographically proximate communities, by analyzing the ‘community network’, where the centroids of communities would be considered as network nodes. We suggest that the inter-community link strengths, which are normalized over the community sizes, may be used to identify and extract the ‘overlay communities’. The overlay communities would have relatively higher link strengths, despite being relatively apart in their spatial distribution. We apply this method to the Gowalla online social network, which contains the geographical signatures of its users, and identify the overlay communities within it.Keywords: Social networks, community detection, modularity optimization, geographically dispersed communities.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1298