Search results for: budget uncertainty.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 477

Search results for: budget uncertainty.

207 An Optimization Model for Natural Gas Supply Chain through a Cost Approach under Uncertainty

Authors: A. Azadeh, Z. Raoofi

Abstract:

Natural gas, as one of the most important sources of energy for many of the industrial and domestic users all over the world, has a complex, huge supply chain which is in need of heavy investments in all the phases of exploration, extraction, production, transportation, storage and distribution. The main purpose of supply chain is to meet customers’ need efficiently and with minimum cost. In this study, with the aim of minimizing economic costs, different levels of natural gas supply chain in the form of a multi-echelon, multi-period fuzzy linear programming have been modeled. In this model, different constraints including constraints on demand satisfaction, capacity, input/output balance and presence/absence of a path have been defined. The obtained results suggest efficiency of the recommended model in optimal allocation and reduction of supply chain costs.

Keywords: Cost Approach, Fuzzy Theory, Linear Programming, Natural Gas Supply Chain.

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206 Decision Making with Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence Using Geometric Operators

Authors: José M. Merigó, Montserrat Casanovas

Abstract:

We study the problem of decision making with Dempster-Shafer belief structure. We analyze the previous work developed by Yager about using the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the aggregation of the Dempster-Shafer decision process. We discuss the possibility of aggregating with an ascending order in the OWA operator for the cases where the smallest value is the best result. We suggest the introduction of the ordered weighted geometric (OWG) operator in the Dempster-Shafer framework. In this case, we also discuss the possibility of aggregating with an ascending order and we find that it is completely necessary as the OWG operator cannot aggregate negative numbers. Finally, we give an illustrative example where we can see the different results obtained by using the OWA, the Ascending OWA (AOWA), the OWG and the Ascending OWG (AOWG) operator.

Keywords: Decision making, aggregation operators, Dempster- Shafer theory of evidence, Uncertainty, OWA operator, OWG operator.

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205 A New Measurable Definition of Knowledge in New Growth Theory

Authors: Mohammad Ali Molaei

Abstract:

New Growth Theory helps us make sense of the ongoing shift from a resource-based economy to a knowledge-based economy. It underscores the point that the economic processes which create and diffuse new knowledge are critical to shaping the growth of nations, communities and individual firms. In all too many contributions to New (Endogenous) Growth Theory – though not in all – central reference is made to 'a stock of knowledge', a 'stock of ideas', etc., this variable featuring centre-stage in the analysis. Yet it is immediately apparent that this is far from being a crystal clear concept. The difficulty and uncertainty of being able to capture the value associated with knowledge is a real problem. The intent of this paper is introducing new thinking and theorizing about the knowledge and its measurability in new growth theory. Moreover the study aims to synthesize various strain of the literature with a practical bearing on knowledge concept. By contribution of institution framework which is found within NGT, we can indirectly measure the knowledge concept. Institutions matter because they shape the environment for production and employment of new knowledge

Keywords: Institution Framework, Knowledge, New GrowthTheory (NGT)

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204 Suitability of Black Box Approaches for the Reliability Assessment of Component-Based Software

Authors: Anjushi Verma, Tirthankar Gayen

Abstract:

Although, reliability is an important attribute of quality, especially for mission critical systems, yet, there does not exist any versatile model even today for the reliability assessment of component-based software. The existing Black Box models are found to make various assumptions which may not always be realistic and may be quite contrary to the actual behaviour of software. They focus on observing the manner in which the system behaves without considering the structure of the system, the components composing the system, their interconnections, dependencies, usage frequencies, etc.As a result, the entropy (uncertainty) in assessment using these models is much high.Though, there are some models based on operation profile yet sometimes it becomes extremely difficult to obtain the exact operation profile concerned with a given operation. This paper discusses the drawbacks, deficiencies and limitations of Black Box approaches from the perspective of various authors and finally proposes a conceptual model for the reliability assessment of software.

Keywords: Black Box, faults, failure, software reliability.

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203 Controller Design for Active Suspension System of ¼ Car with Unknown Mass and Time-Delay

Authors: Ali Al-Zughaibi, Huw Davies

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present a modeling and control of a quarter-car active suspension system with unknown mass, unknown time-delay and road disturbance. The objective of designing the controller is to derive a control law to achieve stability of the system and convergence that can considerably improve ride comfort and road disturbance handling. This is accomplished by using Routh-Hurwitz criterion based on defined parameters. Mathematical proof is given to show the ability of the designed controller to ensure the target of design, implementation with the active suspension system and enhancement dispersion oscillation of the system despite these problems. Simulations were also performed to control quarter car suspension, where the results obtained from these simulations verify the validity of the proposed design.

Keywords: Active suspension system, disturbance rejection, dynamic uncertainty, time-delay.

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202 Discovery of Fuzzy Censored Production Rules from Large Set of Discovered Fuzzy if then Rules

Authors: Tamanna Siddiqui, M. Afshar Alam

Abstract:

Censored Production Rule is an extension of standard production rule, which is concerned with problems of reasoning with incomplete information, subject to resource constraints and problem of reasoning efficiently with exceptions. A CPR has a form: IF A (Condition) THEN B (Action) UNLESS C (Censor), Where C is the exception condition. Fuzzy CPR are obtained by augmenting ordinary fuzzy production rule “If X is A then Y is B with an exception condition and are written in the form “If X is A then Y is B Unless Z is C. Such rules are employed in situation in which the fuzzy conditional statement “If X is A then Y is B" holds frequently and the exception condition “Z is C" holds rarely. Thus “If X is A then Y is B" part of the fuzzy CPR express important information while the unless part acts only as a switch that changes the polarity of “Y is B" to “Y is not B" when the assertion “Z is C" holds. The proposed approach is an attempt to discover fuzzy censored production rules from set of discovered fuzzy if then rules in the form: A(X) ÔçÆ B(Y) || C(Z).

Keywords: Uncertainty Quantification, Fuzzy if then rules, Fuzzy Censored Production Rules, Learning algorithm.

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201 GPI Observer-based Tracking Control and Synchronization of Chaotic Systems

Authors: Dangjun Zhao, Yongji Wang, Lei Liu

Abstract:

Based on general proportional integral (GPI) observers and sliding mode control technique, a robust control method is proposed for the master-slave synchronization of chaotic systems in the presence of parameter uncertainty and with partially measurable output signal. By using GPI observer, the master dynamics are reconstructed by the observations from a measurable output under the differential algebraic framework. Driven by the signals provided by GPI observer, a sliding mode control technique is used for the tracking control and synchronization of the master-slave dynamics. The convincing numerical results reveal the proposed method is effective, and successfully accommodate the system uncertainties, disturbances, and noisy corruptions.

Keywords: GPI observer, sliding mode control, master-slave synchronization, chaotic systems.

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200 On the Robust Stability of Homogeneous Perturbed Large-Scale Bilinear Systems with Time Delays and Constrained Inputs

Authors: Chien-Hua Lee, Cheng-Yi Chen

Abstract:

The stability test problem for homogeneous large-scale perturbed bilinear time-delay systems subjected to constrained inputs is considered in this paper. Both nonlinear uncertainties and interval systems are discussed. By utilizing the Lyapunove equation approach associated with linear algebraic techniques, several delay-independent criteria are presented to guarantee the robust stability of the overall systems. The main feature of the presented results is that although the Lyapunov stability theorem is used, they do not involve any Lyapunov equation which may be unsolvable. Furthermore, it is seen the proposed schemes can be applied to solve the stability analysis problem of large-scale time-delay systems.

Keywords: homogeneous bilinear system, constrained input, time-delay, uncertainty, transient response, decay rate.

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199 Order Partitioning in Hybrid MTS/MTO Contexts using Fuzzy ANP

Authors: H. Rafiei, M. Rabbani

Abstract:

A novel concept to balance and tradeoff between make-to-stock and make-to-order has been hybrid MTS/MTO production context. One of the most important decisions involved in the hybrid MTS/MTO environment is determining whether a product is manufactured to stock, to order, or hybrid MTS/MTO strategy. In this paper, a model based on analytic network process is developed to tackle the addressed decision. Since the regarded decision deals with the uncertainty and ambiguity of data as well as experts- and managers- linguistic judgments, the proposed model is equipped with fuzzy sets theory. An important attribute of the model is its generality due to diverse decision factors which are elicited from the literature and developed by the authors. Finally, the model is validated by applying to a real case study to reveal how the proposed model can actually be implemented.

Keywords: Fuzzy analytic network process, Hybrid make-tostock/ make-to-order, Order partitioning, Production planning.

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198 Using Dempster-Shafer Theory in XML Information Retrieval

Authors: F. Raja, M. Rahgozar, F. Oroumchian

Abstract:

XML is a markup language which is becoming the standard format for information representation and data exchange. A major purpose of XML is the explicit representation of the logical structure of a document. Much research has been performed to exploit logical structure of documents in information retrieval in order to precisely extract user information need from large collections of XML documents. In this paper, we describe an XML information retrieval weighting scheme that tries to find the most relevant elements in XML documents in response to a user query. We present this weighting model for information retrieval systems that utilize plausible inferences to infer the relevance of elements in XML documents. We also add to this model the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to express the uncertainty in plausible inferences and Dempster-Shafer rule of combination to combine evidences derived from different inferences.

Keywords: Dempster-Shafer theory, plausible inferences, XMLinformation retrieval.

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197 Financial Sources and Instruments for Public Grants and Financial Facilities of Smes in EU

Authors: Simeon Karafolas, Maciej Woźniak

Abstract:

Mostly of public financing programs at national and regional level are funded from European Union sources. EU can participate directly to a national and regional program (example LEADER initiative, URBAN…) or indirectly by funding regional or national funds.Funds from European Union are provided from EU multiannual financial framework form which the annual budget is programmed. The adjusted program 2007-2013 of the EU considered commitments of almost 1 trillion Euros for the EU-28 countries. Provisions of the new program 2014-2020 consider commitments of more than 1 trillion Euros. Sustainable growth, divided to Cohesion and Competitiveness for Growth an Employment, is one of the two principal categories; the other is the preservation and management of natural resources.Through this financing process SMEs benefited of EU and public sources by receiving grants for their investments. Most of the financial instruments are available indirectly through the national financial intermediaries. Part of them is managed by the European Investment Fund.The paper focuses on the public financing to SMEs by examining case studies on divers forms of public help. It tries to distinguish the efficiency of the examined good practices and therefore try to have some conclusions on the possibility of application to other regions.

Keywords: DIFASS, financing, grants, SMEs.

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196 'Drought Proofing' Australian Cities: Implications for Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainability

Authors: Phoenix Lawhon Isler, John Merson, David Roser

Abstract:

Urban water management in Australia faces increasing pressure to deal with the challenges of droughts, growing population and the climate change uncertainty. Addressing these challenges is an opportunity to incorporate the parallel goals of sustainable water management and climate change adaptation through holistic, non-technical means. This paper presents case studies from Perth and Sydney which show how despite robust adaptation plans and experience, recent efforts to 'drought proof' cities have focused on supply-side measures (i.e. desalination), rather than rethinking how water is used and managing demand. The trend towards desalination as a climate adaptation measure raises questions about the sustainability of urban water futures in Australia.

Keywords: Climate change adaptation, desalination, drought management, sustainable urban water management.

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195 Co-tier and Co-channel Interference Avoidance Algorithm for Femtocell Networks

Authors: S. Padmapriya, M. Tamilarasi

Abstract:

Femtocells are regarded as a milestone for next generation cellular networks. As femtocells are deployed in an unplanned manner, there is a chance of assigning same resource to neighboring femtocells. This scenario may induce co-channel interference and may seriously affect the service quality of neighboring femtocells. In addition, the dominant transmit power of a femtocell will induce co-tier interference to neighboring femtocells. Thus to jointly handle co-tier and co-channel interference, we propose an interference-free power and resource block allocation (IFPRBA) algorithm for closely located, closed access femtocells. Based on neighboring list, inter-femto-base station distance and uplink noise power, the IFPRBA algorithm assigns non-interfering power and resource to femtocells. The IFPRBA algorithm also guarantees the quality of service to femtouser based on the knowledge of resource requirement, connection type, and the tolerable delay budget. Simulation result shows that the interference power experienced in IFPRBA algorithm is below the tolerable interference power and hence the overall service success ratio, PRB efficiency and network throughput are maximum when compared to conventional resource allocation framework for femtocell (RAFF) algorithm.

Keywords: Co-channel interference, co-tier interference, femtocells, guaranteed QoS, power optimization, resource assignment.

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194 Network Intrusion Detection Design Using Feature Selection of Soft Computing Paradigms

Authors: T. S. Chou, K. K. Yen, J. Luo

Abstract:

The network traffic data provided for the design of intrusion detection always are large with ineffective information and enclose limited and ambiguous information about users- activities. We study the problems and propose a two phases approach in our intrusion detection design. In the first phase, we develop a correlation-based feature selection algorithm to remove the worthless information from the original high dimensional database. Next, we design an intrusion detection method to solve the problems of uncertainty caused by limited and ambiguous information. In the experiments, we choose six UCI databases and DARPA KDD99 intrusion detection data set as our evaluation tools. Empirical studies indicate that our feature selection algorithm is capable of reducing the size of data set. Our intrusion detection method achieves a better performance than those of participating intrusion detectors.

Keywords: Intrusion detection, feature selection, k-nearest neighbors, fuzzy clustering, Dempster-Shafer theory

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193 Analysis of Network Performance Using Aspect of Quantum Cryptography

Authors: Nisarg A. Patel, Hiren B. Patel

Abstract:

Quantum cryptography is described as a point-to-point secure key generation technology that has emerged in recent times in providing absolute security. Researchers have started studying new innovative approaches to exploit the security of Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) for a large-scale communication system. A number of approaches and models for utilization of QKD for secure communication have been developed. The uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics created a new paradigm for QKD. One of the approaches for use of QKD involved network fashioned security. The main goal was point-to-point Quantum network that exploited QKD technology for end-to-end network security via high speed QKD. Other approaches and models equipped with QKD in network fashion are introduced in the literature as. A different approach that this paper deals with is using QKD in existing protocols, which are widely used on the Internet to enhance security with main objective of unconditional security. Our work is towards the analysis of the QKD in Mobile ad-hoc network (MANET).

Keywords: QKD, cryptography, quantum cryptography, network performance.

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192 Medical Negligence Disputes in Malaysia: Resolving through Hazards of Litigation or through Community Responsibilities?

Authors: Puteri Nemie Jahn Kassim, Khadijah Mohd Najid

Abstract:

Medical negligence disputes in Malaysia are mainly resolved through litigation by using the tort system. The tort system, being adversarial in nature has subjected parties to litigation hazards such as delay, excessive costs and uncertainty of outcome. The dissatisfaction of the tort system in compensating medically injured victims has created various alternatives to litigation. Amongst them is the implementation of a no-fault compensation system which would allow compensation to be given without the need of proving fault on the medical personnel. Instead, the community now bears the burden of compensating and at the end, promotes collective responsibility. For Malaysia, introducing a no-fault system would provide a tempting solution and may ultimately, achieve justice for the medical injured victims. Nevertheless, such drastic change requires a great deal of consideration to determine the suitability of the system and whether or not it will eventually cater for the needs of the Malaysian population

Keywords: Medical Disputes, Litigation, Malaysia, No-Fault Compensation.

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191 Achieving Performance in an Organization through Marketing Innovation

Authors: Andreea Maier, Diana Nicoară, Dorin Maier, Maria-Mihaela Suărăsan, Alexandra Anastasiu

Abstract:

Innovation is becoming more and more important in modern society. There are a lot of researches on different kinds of innovation but marketing innovation is one kind of innovation that has not been studied frequently before. Marketing innovation is defined as a new way in which companies can market themselves to potential or existing customers. The study shows some key elements for marketing innovation that are worth paying attention to when implementing marketing innovation projects. Examples of such key elements are: paying attention to the neglected market, suitable market segmentatio reliable market information, public relationship, increased customer value, combination of market factors, explore different marketing channels and the use of technology in combination with what? Beside the key elements for marketing innovation, we also present some risks that may occur, such as cost, market uncertainty, information leakage, imitation and overdependence on experience. By proposing a set of indicators to measure marketing innovation, the article offers solutions for marketing innovation implementation so that any organization can achieve optimal results.

Keywords: Innovation, marketing innovation, performance in an organization.

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190 An Analysis of Digital Forensic Laboratory Development among Malaysia’s Law Enforcement Agencies

Authors: Sarah K. Taylor, Miratun M. Saharuddin, Zabri A. Talib

Abstract:

Cybercrime is on the rise, and yet many Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs) in Malaysia have no Digital Forensics Laboratory (DFL) to assist them in the attrition and analysis of digital evidence. From the estimated number of 30 LEAs in Malaysia, sadly, only eight of them owned a DFL. All of the DFLs are concentrated in the capital of Malaysia and none at the state level. LEAs are still depending on the national DFL (CyberSecurity Malaysia) even for simple and straightforward cases. A survey was conducted among LEAs in Malaysia owning a DFL to understand their history of establishing the DFL, the challenges that they faced and the significance of the DFL to their case investigation. The results showed that the while some LEAs faced no challenge in establishing a DFL, some of them took seven to 10 years to do so. The reason was due to the difficulty in convincing their management because of the high costs involved. The results also revealed that with the establishment of a DFL, LEAs were better able to get faster forensic result and to meet agency’s timeline expectation. It is also found that LEAs were also able to get more meaningful forensic results on cases that require niche expertise, compared to sending off cases to the national DFL. Other than that, cases are getting more complex, and hence, a continuous stream of budget for equipment and training is inevitable. The result derived from the study is hoped to be used by other LEAs in justifying to their management the benefits of establishing an in-house DFL.

Keywords: Digital forensics, digital forensics laboratory, digital evidence, law enforcement agency.

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189 Liver Lesion Extraction with Fuzzy Thresholding in Contrast Enhanced Ultrasound Images

Authors: Abder-Rahman Ali, Adélaïde Albouy-Kissi, Manuel Grand-Brochier, Viviane Ladan-Marcus, Christine Hoeffl, Claude Marcus, Antoine Vacavant, Jean-Yves Boire

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a new segmentation approach for focal liver lesions in contrast enhanced ultrasound imaging. This approach, based on a two-cluster Fuzzy C-Means methodology, considers type-II fuzzy sets to handle uncertainty due to the image modality (presence of speckle noise, low contrast, etc.), and to calculate the optimum inter-cluster threshold. Fine boundaries are detected by a local recursive merging of ambiguous pixels. The method has been tested on a representative database. Compared to both Otsu and type-I Fuzzy C-Means techniques, the proposed method significantly reduces the segmentation errors.

Keywords: Defuzzification, fuzzy clustering, image segmentation, type-II fuzzy sets.

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188 Function Approximation with Radial Basis Function Neural Networks via FIR Filter

Authors: Kyu Chul Lee, Sung Hyun Yoo, Choon Ki Ahn, Myo Taeg Lim

Abstract:

Recent experimental evidences have shown that because of a fast convergence and a nice accuracy, neural networks training via extended kalman filter (EKF) method is widely applied. However, as to an uncertainty of the system dynamics or modeling error, the performance of the method is unreliable. In order to overcome this problem in this paper, a new finite impulse response (FIR) filter based learning algorithm is proposed to train radial basis function neural networks (RBFN) for nonlinear function approximation. Compared to the EKF training method, the proposed FIR filter training method is more robust to those environmental conditions. Furthermore , the number of centers will be considered since it affects the performance of approximation.

Keywords: Extended kalmin filter (EKF), classification problem, radial basis function networks (RBFN), finite impulse response (FIR)filter.

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187 Action Recognition in Video Sequences using a Mealy Machine

Authors: L. Rodriguez-Benitez, J. Moreno-Garcia, J.J. Castro-Schez, C. Solana, L. Jimenez

Abstract:

In this paper the use of sequential machines for recognizing actions taken by the objects detected by a general tracking algorithm is proposed. The system may deal with the uncertainty inherent in medium-level vision data. For this purpose, fuzzification of input data is performed. Besides, this transformation allows to manage data independently of the tracking application selected and enables adding characteristics of the analyzed scenario. The representation of actions by means of an automaton and the generation of the input symbols for finite automaton depending on the object and action compared are described. The output of the comparison process between an object and an action is a numerical value that represents the membership of the object to the action. This value is computed depending on how similar the object and the action are. The work concludes with the application of the proposed technique to identify the behavior of vehicles in road traffic scenes.

Keywords: Approximate reasoning, finite state machines, video analysis.

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186 Deterioration Assessment Models for Water Pipelines

Authors: L. Parvizsedghy, I. Gkountis, A. Senouci, T. Zayed, M. Alsharqawi, H. El Chanati, M. El-Abbasy, F. Mosleh

Abstract:

The aging and deterioration of water pipelines in cities worldwide result in more frequent water main breaks, water service disruptions, and flooding damage. Therefore, there is an urgent need for undertaking proper maintenance procedures to avoid breaks and disastrous failures. However, due to budget limitations, the maintenance of water pipeline networks needs to be prioritized through efficient deterioration assessment models. Previous studies focused on the development of structural or physical deterioration assessment models, which require expensive inspection data. But, this paper aims at developing deterioration assessment models for water pipelines using statistical techniques. Several deterioration models were developed based on pipeline size, material type, and soil type using linear regression analysis. The categorical nature of some variables affecting pipeline deterioration was considered through developing several categorical models. The developed models were validated with an average validity percentage greater than 95%. Moreover, sensitivity analysis was carried out against different classifications and it displayed higher importance of age of pipes compared to other factors. The developed models will be helpful for the water municipalities and asset managers to assess the condition of their pipes and prioritize them for maintenance and inspection purposes.

Keywords: Water pipelines, deterioration assessment models, regression analysis.

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185 Using Exponential Lévy Models to Study Implied Volatility patterns for Electricity Options

Authors: Pinho C., Madaleno M.

Abstract:

German electricity European options on futures using Lévy processes for the underlying asset are examined. Implied volatility evolution, under each of the considered models, is discussed after calibrating for the Merton jump diffusion (MJD), variance gamma (VG), normal inverse Gaussian (NIG), Carr, Geman, Madan and Yor (CGMY) and the Black and Scholes (B&S) model. Implied volatility is examined for the entire sample period, revealing some curious features about market evolution, where data fitting performances of the five models are compared. It is shown that variance gamma processes provide relatively better results and that implied volatility shows significant differences through time, having increasingly evolved. Volatility changes for changed uncertainty, or else, increasing futures prices and there is evidence for the need to account for seasonality when modelling both electricity spot/futures prices and volatility.

Keywords: Calibration, Electricity Markets, Implied Volatility, Lévy Models, Options on Futures, Pricing

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184 A Visualized Framework for Representing Uncertain and Incomplete Temporal Knowledge

Authors: Yue Wang, Jixin Ma, Brian Knight

Abstract:

This paper presents a visualized computer aided case tool for non-expert, called Visual Time, for representing and reasoning about incomplete and uncertain temporal information. It is both expressive and versatile, allowing logical conjunctions and disjunctions of both absolute and relative temporal relations, such as “Before”, “Meets”, “Overlaps”, “Starts”, “During”, and “Finishes”, etc. In terms of a visualized framework, Visual Time provides a user-friendly environment for describing scenarios with rich temporal structure in natural language, which can be formatted as structured temporal phrases and modeled in terms of Temporal Relationship Diagrams (TRD). A TRD can be automatically and visually transformed into a corresponding Time Graph, supported by automatic consistency checker that derives a verdict to confirm if a given scenario is temporally consistent or inconsistent.

Keywords: Time Visualization, Uncertainty, Incompleteness, Consistency Checking.

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183 Fuzzy Controlled Hydraulic Excavator with Model Parameter Uncertainty

Authors: Ganesh Kothapalli, Mohammed Y. Hassan

Abstract:

The hydraulic actuated excavator, being a non-linear mobile machine, encounters many uncertainties. There are uncertainties in the hydraulic system in addition to the uncertain nature of the load. The simulation results obtained in this study show that there is a need for intelligent control of such machines and in particular interval type-2 fuzzy controller is most suitable for minimizing the position error of a typical excavator-s bucket under load variations. We consider the model parameter uncertainties such as hydraulic fluid leakage and friction. These are uncertainties which also depend up on the temperature and alter bulk modulus and viscosity of the hydraulic fluid. Such uncertainties together with the load variations cause chattering of the bucket position. The interval type-2 fuzzy controller effectively eliminates the chattering and manages to control the end-effecter (bucket) position with positional error in the order of few millimeters.

Keywords: excavator, fuzzy control, hydraulics, mining, type-2

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182 The Impact of System Cascading Collapse and Transmission Line Outages to the Transfer Capability Assessment

Authors: N. A. Salim, M. M. Othman, I. Musirin, M. S. Serwan

Abstract:

Uncertainty of system operating conditions is one of the causative reasons which may render to the instability of a transmission system. For that reason, accurate assessment of transmission reliability margin (TRM) is essential to ensure effective power transfer between areas during the occurrence of system uncertainties. The power transfer is also called as the available transfer capability (ATC) which is the information required by the utilities and marketers to instigate selling and buying the electric energy. This paper proposes a computationally effective approach to estimate TRM and ATC by considering the uncertainties of system cascading collapse and transmission line outages. In accordance to the results that have been obtained, the proposed method is essential for the transmission providers which could help the power marketers and planning sectors in the operation and reserving transmission services based on the ATC calculated.

Keywords: Available transfer capability, System cascading collapse, Transmission line outages, Transmission reliability margin.

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181 Strategic Risk Issues for Film Distributors of Hindi Film Industry in Mumbai: A Grounded Theory Approach

Authors: R. Dyondi, S. K. Jha

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product (movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk behavior under conditions of uncertainty.

Keywords: Entrepreneurial Risk Behavior, Film Distribution Strategy, Hindi Film Industry, Risk.

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180 Classification and Resolving Urban Problems by Means of Fuzzy Approach

Authors: F. Habib, A. Shokoohi

Abstract:

Urban problems are problems of organized complexity. Thus, many models and scientific methods to resolve urban problems are failed. This study is concerned with proposing of a fuzzy system driven approach for classification and solving urban problems. The proposed study investigated mainly the selection of the inputs and outputs of urban systems for classification of urban problems. In this research, five categories of urban problems, respect to fuzzy system approach had been recognized: control, polytely, optimizing, open and decision making problems. Grounded Theory techniques were then applied to analyze the data and develop new solving method for each category. The findings indicate that the fuzzy system methods are powerful processes and analytic tools for helping planners to resolve urban complex problems. These tools can be successful where as others have failed because both incorporate or address uncertainty and risk; complexity and systems interacting with other systems.

Keywords: Classification, complexity, Fuzzy theory, urban problems.

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179 New Multisensor Data Fusion Method Based on Probabilistic Grids Representation

Authors: Zhichao Zhao, Yi Liu, Shunping Xiao

Abstract:

A new data fusion method called joint probability density matrix (JPDM) is proposed, which can associate and fuse measurements from spatially distributed heterogeneous sensors to identify the real target in a surveillance region. Using the probabilistic grids representation, we numerically combine the uncertainty regions of all the measurements in a general framework. The NP-hard multisensor data fusion problem has been converted to a peak picking problem in the grids map. Unlike most of the existing data fusion method, the JPDM method dose not need association processing, and will not lead to combinatorial explosion. Its convergence to the CRLB with a diminishing grid size has been proved. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique.

Keywords: Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB), data fusion, probabilistic grids, joint probability density matrix, localization, sensor network.

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178 Solid Waste Management in Steel Industry - Challenges and Opportunities

Authors: Sushovan Sarkar, Debabrata Mazumder

Abstract:

Solid waste management in steel industry is broadly classified in “4 Rs” i.e. reduce, reuse, recycle and restore the materials. Reuse and recycling the entire solid waste generated in the process of steel making is a viable solution in targeting a clean, green and zero waste technology leading to sustainable development of the steel industry. Solid waste management has gained importance in steel industry in view of its uncertainty, volatility and speculation due to world competitive standards, rising input costs, scarcity of raw materials and solid waste generated like in other sectors. The challenges that the steel Industry faces today are the requirement of a sustainable development by meeting the needs of our present generation without compromising the ability of future generations. Technologies are developed not only for gainful utilization of solid wastes in manufacture of conventional products but also for conversion of same in to completely new products.

Keywords: Reuse, recycle, solid waste, sustainable development.

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