Search results for: Money demand function

Authors: Susovan Chakrabortty, Madhumangal Pal, Prasun Kumar Nayak

Abstract:

A manufacturing inventory model with shortages with carrying cost, shortage cost, setup cost and demand quantity as imprecise numbers, instead of real numbers, namely interval number is considered here. First, a brief survey of the existing works on comparing and ranking any two interval numbers on the real line is presented. A common algorithm for the optimum production quantity (Economic lot-size) per cycle of a single product (so as to minimize the total average cost) is developed which works well on interval number optimization under consideration. Finally, the designed algorithm is illustrated with numerical example.

Keywords: EOQ, Inventory, Interval Number, Demand, Production, Simulation

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Authors: Min Sun, Zhenyu Liu

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In this paper, a new descent-projection method with a new search direction for monotone structured variational inequalities is proposed. The method is simple, which needs only projections and some function evaluations, so its computational load is very tiny. Under mild conditions on the problem-s data, the method is proved to converges globally. Some preliminary computational results are also reported to illustrate the efficiency of the method.

Keywords: variational inequalities, monotone function, global convergence.

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Authors: R. Fatehi, M.A. Fayazbakhsh, M.T. Manzari

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Discretization of spatial derivatives is an important issue in meshfree methods especially when the derivative terms contain non-linear coefficients. In this paper, various methods used for discretization of second-order spatial derivatives are investigated in the context of Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics. Three popular forms (i.e. "double summation", "second-order kernel derivation", and "difference scheme") are studied using one-dimensional unsteady heat conduction equation. To assess these schemes, transient response to a step function initial condition is considered. Due to parabolic nature of the heat equation, one can expect smooth and monotone solutions. It is shown, however in this paper, that regardless of the type of kernel function used and the size of smoothing radius, the double summation discretization form leads to non-physical oscillations which persist in the solution. Also, results show that when a second-order kernel derivative is used, a high-order kernel function shall be employed in such a way that the distance of inflection point from origin in the kernel function be less than the nearest particle distance. Otherwise, solutions may exhibit oscillations near discontinuities unlike the "difference scheme" which unconditionally produces monotone results.

Keywords: Heat conduction, Meshfree methods, Smoothed ParticleHydrodynamics (SPH), Second-order derivatives.

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Authors: Jiann-Ming Wu, Hsiao-Chang Chen, Chun-Chang Wu, Pei-Hsun Hsu

Abstract:

This work explores blind image deconvolution by recursive function approximation based on supervised learning of neural networks, under the assumption that a degraded image is linear convolution of an original source image through a linear shift-invariant (LSI) blurring matrix. Supervised learning of neural networks of radial basis functions (RBF) is employed to construct an embedded recursive function within a blurring image, try to extract non-deterministic component of an original source image, and use them to estimate hyper parameters of a linear image degradation model. Based on the estimated blurring matrix, reconstruction of an original source image from a blurred image is further resolved by an annealed Hopfield neural network. By numerical simulations, the proposed novel method is shown effective for faithful estimation of an unknown blurring matrix and restoration of an original source image.

Keywords: Blind image deconvolution, linear shift-invariant(LSI), linear image degradation model, radial basis functions (rbf), recursive function, annealed Hopfield neural networks.

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Authors: Nasser Mohamed Ramli, Mohamad Syafiq Mohamad

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Many types of controllers were applied on the continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) unit to control the temperature. In this research paper, Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controller are compared with Fuzzy Logic controller for temperature control of CSTR. The control system for temperature non-isothermal of a CSTR will produce a stable response curve to its set point temperature. A mathematical model of a CSTR using the most general operating condition was developed through a set of differential equations into S-function using MATLAB. The reactor model and S-function are developed using m.file. After developing the S-function of CSTR model, User-Defined functions are used to link to SIMULINK file. Results that are obtained from simulation and temperature control were better when using Fuzzy logic control compared to PID control.

Keywords: CSTR, temperature, PID, fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Waseem Ahmed Khan, Muhammad Akhtar, Asif Mansoor

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The Navier Stokes Equations (NSE) for an incompressible fluid of variable viscosity in the presence of an unknown external force in Von-Mises system x,\ are transformed, and some new exact solutions for a class of flows characterized by equation y f x a\b for an arbitrary state equation are determined, where f x is a function, \ the stream function, a z 0 and b are the arbitrary constants. In three, out of four cases, the function f x is arbitrary, and the solutions are the solutions of the flow equations for all the flows characterized by the equationy f x a\b. Streamline patterns for some forms of f x in unbounded and bounded regions are given.

Keywords: Bounded and unbounded region, Exact solution, Navier Stokes equations, Streamline pattern, Variable viscosity, Von- Mises system

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Authors: Kittipong Tripetch

Abstract:

This paper proposes a study of input impedance of 2 types of CMOS active inductors. It derives 2 input impedance formulas. The first formula is the input impedance of the grounded active inductor. The second formula is the input impedance of the floating active inductor. After that, these formulas can be used to simulate magnitude and phase response of input impedance as a function of current consumption with MATLAB. Common mode rejection ratio (CMRR) of the fully differential bandpass amplifier is derived based on superposition principle. CMRR as a function of input frequency is plotted as a function of current consumption. 

Keywords: Grounded active inductor, floating active inductor, Fully differential bandpass amplifier.

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Authors: Santi Behera, M. Tripathy, J. K. Satapathy

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Power systems are operating under stressed condition due to continuous increase in demand of load. This can lead to voltage instability problem when face additional load increase or contingency. In order to avoid voltage instability suitable size of reactive power compensation at optimal location in the system is required which improves the load margin. This work aims at obtaining optimal size as well as location of compensation in the 39- bus New England system with the help of Bacteria Foraging and Genetic algorithms. To reduce the computational time the work identifies weak candidate buses in the system, and then picks only two of them to take part in the optimization. The objective function is based on a recently proposed voltage stability index which takes into account the weighted average sensitivity index is a simpler and faster approach than the conventional CPF algorithm. BFOA has been found to give better results compared to GA.

Keywords: BFOA, GA, SSVSL, WASI.

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Authors: Donglan Zha, Jiansong Si

Abstract:

Because of its flexibility, CES attracts much interest in economic growth and programming models, and the macroeconomics or micro-macro models. This paper focuses on the development, estimating methods of CES production function considering energy as an input. We leave for future research work of relaxing the assumption of constant returns to scale, the introduction of potential input factors, and the generalization method of the optimal nested form of multi-factor production functions.

Keywords: Bias of technical change, CES production function, elasticity of substitution, energy input.

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Authors: Won-Ho Kim, Chang-Ho Hyun, Moon-Jung Kim

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In this paper, zigbee communication based wireless energy surveillance system is presented. The proposed system consists of multiple energy surveillance devices and an energy surveillance monitor. Each different standby power-off value of electric device is set automatically by using learning function of energy surveillance device. Thus adaptive standby power-off function provides user convenience and it maximizes the energy savings. Also, power consumption monitoring function is helpful to reduce inefficient energy consumption in home. The zigbee throughput simulator is designed to evaluate minimum transmission power and maximum allowable information quantity in the proposed system. The test result of prototype has been satisfied all the requirements. The proposed system has confirmed that can be used as an intelligent energy surveillance system for energy savings in home or office.

Keywords: Energy monitoring system, Energy surveillance system, Energy sensor network, Energy savings.

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Authors: Wen-Lung Huang, Shih-Pin Chen

Abstract:

This paper investigates the optimization problem of multi-product aggregate production planning (APP) with fuzzy data. From a comprehensive viewpoint of conserving the fuzziness of input information, this paper proposes a method that can completely describe the membership function of the performance measure. The idea is based on the well-known Zadeh-s extension principle which plays an important role in fuzzy theory. In the proposed solution procedure, a pair of mathematical programs parameterized by possibility level a is formulated to calculate the bounds of the optimal performance measure at a . Then the membership function of the optimal performance measure is constructed by enumerating different values of a . Solutions obtained from the proposed method contain more information, and can offer more chance to achieve the feasible disaggregate plan. This is helpful to the decision-maker in practical applications.

Keywords: fuzzy data, aggregate production planning, membership function, parametric programming

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Authors: Jin-Hong Kim

Abstract:

Roles of the vegetation to mitigate the erosion of the stream bed or to facilitate the deposition of the fine sediments by the species of the aquatic plants were presented. Field investigation on the estimation of the change of the bed level and the estimation of the flow characteristics were performed. The results showed that Phragmites japonica has the mitigation function of 0.3m-0.4m of the erosion in the range of higher than 1.0m/s of flow velocity at the vegetated region. Phragmites communis has the mitigation function of 0.2m-0.3m of the erosion in the range of higher than 0.7m/s of flow velocity at the vegetated region. Salix gracilistyla has greater role than Phragmites japonica and Phragmites communis to sustain the stable channel. It has the mitigation function of 0.4m-0.5m of the erosion in the range of higher than 1.4m/s of flow velocity. Miscanthus sacchariflorus has a weak role compared with that of Phragmites japonica and Salix gracilistyla, but it has still function for sustaining the stable bed. From these results, the vegetation has effective roles to mitigate the erosion or to facilitate the deposition of the stream bed.

Keywords: Aquatic plants, Phragmites japonica, Phragmites communis, Miscanthus sacchariflorus, Salix gracilistyla.

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Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Kenji Shimoda, Hitoshi Takata

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This paper presents a method of model selection and identification of Hammerstein systems by hybridization of the genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). An unknown nonlinear static part to be estimated is approximately represented by an automatic choosing function (ACF) model. The weighting parameters of the ACF and the system parameters of the linear dynamic part are estimated by the linear least-squares method. On the other hand, the adjusting parameters of the ACF model structure are properly selected by the hybrid algorithm of the GA and PSO, where the Akaike information criterion is utilized as the evaluation value function. Simulation results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid algorithm.

Keywords: Hammerstein system, identification, automatic choosing function model, genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: K. Hosseini, MD., R. Mazaheri, MD., H.R. Khoddami Vishteh, MD., M.A. Mansournia, MD., H. Angoorani, MD

Abstract:

Background: Tissue Doppler Echocardiography (TDE) assesses diastolic function more accurately than routine pulse Doppler echo. Assessment of the effects of dynamic and static exercises on the heart by using TDE can provides new information about the athlete-s heart syndrome. Methods: This study was conducted on 20 elite wrestlers, 14 endurance runners at national level and 21 non-athletes as the control group. Participants underwent two-dimensional echocardiography, standard Doppler and TDE. Results: Wrestlers had the highest left ventricular mass index, enddiastolic inter-ventricular septum thickness and left ventricular Posterior wall thickness. Runners had the highest Left ventricular end-diastolic volume, LV ejection fraction, stroke volume and cardiac output. In TDE, the early diastolic velocity of mitral annulus to the late diastolic velocity ratio in athletic groups was greater than the controls with no significant difference. Conclusion: In spite of cardiac morphological changes in athletes, TDE shows that cardiac diastolic function won-t be adversely affected.

Keywords: Tissue Doppler Echocardiography, Diastolic function, Athlete's heart syndrome, Static exercise, Dynamic exercise

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Authors: S. Adhirai, R. P. Mahapatra, Paramjit Singh

Abstract:

Optimization is an important tool in making decisions and in analysing physical systems. In mathematical terms, an optimization problem is the problem of finding the best solution from among the set of all feasible solutions. The paper discusses the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), and its applications in different fields. The algorithm is tested using MATLAB because of its unique and powerful features. The benchmark functions used in WOA algorithm are grouped as: unimodal (F1-F7), multimodal (F8-F13), and fixed-dimension multimodal (F14-F23). Out of these benchmark functions, we show the experimental results for F7, F11, and F19 for different number of iterations. The search space and objective space for the selected function are drawn, and finally, the best solution as well as the best optimal value of the objective function found by WOA is presented. The algorithmic results demonstrate that the WOA performs better than the state-of-the-art meta-heuristic and conventional algorithms.

Keywords: Optimization, optimal value, objective function, optimization problems, meta-heuristic optimization algorithms, Whale Optimization Algorithm, Implementation, MATLAB.

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Authors: Srinath Shetty K., Shivashankar R., Rashmi P. Shetty

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Earth reinforcing techniques have become useful and economical to solve problems related to difficult grounds and provide satisfactory foundation performance. In this context, this paper uses radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) for predicting the bearing pressure of strip footing on reinforced granular bed overlying weak soil. The inputs for the neural network models included plate width, thickness of granular bed and number of layers of reinforcements, settlement ratio, water content, dry density, cohesion and angle of friction. The results indicated that RBFNN model exhibited more than 84 % prediction accuracy, thereby demonstrating its application in a geotechnical problem.

Keywords: Bearing pressure, granular bed, radial basis function neural network, strip footing.

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Authors: Labiba Gilani, Asifullah Khan, Anwar M. Mirza

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This paper introduces a technique of distortion estimation in image watermarking using Genetic Programming (GP). The distortion is estimated by considering the problem of obtaining a distorted watermarked signal from the original watermarked signal as a function regression problem. This function regression problem is solved using GP, where the original watermarked signal is considered as an independent variable. GP-based distortion estimation scheme is checked for Gaussian attack and Jpeg compression attack. We have used Gaussian attacks of different strengths by changing the standard deviation. JPEG compression attack is also varied by adding various distortions. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed technique is able to detect the watermark even in the case of strong distortions and is more robust against attacks.

Keywords: Blind Watermarking, Genetic Programming (GP), Fitness Function, Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT).

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Authors: Mike Sewell, Jagath Samarabandu, Ranga Rodrigo, Kenneth McIsaac

Abstract:

A novel method of individual level adaptive mutation rate control called the rank-scaled mutation rate for genetic algorithms is introduced. The rank-scaled mutation rate controlled genetic algorithm varies the mutation parameters based on the rank of each individual within the population. Thereby the distribution of the fitness of the papulation is taken into consideration in forming the new mutation rates. The best fit mutate at the lowest rate and the least fit mutate at the highest rate. The complexity of the algorithm is of the order of an individual adaptation scheme and is lower than that of a self-adaptation scheme. The proposed algorithm is tested on two common problems, namely, numerical optimization of a function and the traveling salesman problem. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms both the fixed and deterministic mutation rate schemes. It is best suited for problems with several local optimum solutions without a high demand for excessive mutation rates.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, mutation rate control, adaptive mutation.

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Authors: Chaimongkol Limpianchob

Abstract:

This work addresses the problem of production planning that arises in the production of aromatic coconuts from Samudsakhorn province in Thailand. The planning involves the forwarding of aromatic coconuts from the harvest areas to the factory, which is classified into two groups; self-owned areas and contracted areas, the decisions of aromatic coconuts flow in the plant, and addressing a question of which warehouse will be in use. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model within supply chain management framework. The objective function seeks to minimize the total cost including the harvesting, labor and inventory costs. Constraints on the system include the production activities in the company and demand requirements. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of coconuts supply chain model compared with base case.

Keywords: Aromatic coconut, supply chain management, production planning, mixed-integer linear programming.

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Authors: John N. Ellinas, Panagiotis Kenterlis

Abstract:

The efficiency of an image watermarking technique depends on the preservation of visually significant information. This is attained by embedding the watermark transparently with the maximum possible strength. The current paper presents an approach for still image digital watermarking in which the watermark embedding process employs the wavelet transform and incorporates Human Visual System (HVS) characteristics. The sensitivity of a human observer to contrast with respect to spatial frequency is described by the Contrast Sensitivity Function (CSF). The strength of the watermark within the decomposition subbands, which occupy an interval on the spatial frequencies, is adjusted according to this sensitivity. Moreover, the watermark embedding process is carried over the subband coefficients that lie on edges where distortions are less noticeable. The experimental evaluation of the proposed method shows very good results in terms of robustness and transparency.

Keywords: Image watermarking, wavelet transform, human visual system, contrast sensitivity function.

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Authors: Palang Wongtanasuporn

Abstract:

Rural villagers in Thailand have unique skill for producing craft using local materials. However, the appearance and function of their products are not suited to the demand of international market. The Thai government policy on sustainable economy emphasises the necessity to incorporate a design strategy that will draw out the unique qualities and add value to the products, while raising the satisfaction of international consumer. As an industrial designer, the author sees opportunities that design can enhance sustainability of Thai local products through the potentials that available in village-based enterprises. This research attempts to address, how best use design to practically solve the problems in the development of Thais product in. The privilege solution is expressed through the design of design strategy that supports sustain economic development of microenterprise in Thailand in the way that aligns with product design development. This consideration integrates together with global business outlook in the development of products from rural communities.

Keywords: Community Development, Sufficiency Economy Philosophy, Product Design, Strategy Management.

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Authors: Pankaj Dutta, Debjani Chakraborty

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This paper investigates the effect of product substitution in the single-period 'newsboy-type' problem in a fuzzy environment. It is supposed that the single-period problem operates under uncertainty in customer demand, which is described by imprecise terms and modelled by fuzzy sets. To perform this analysis, we consider the fuzzy model for two-item with upward substitution. This upward substitutability is reasonable when the products can be stored according to certain attribute levels such as quality, brand or package size. We show that the explicit consideration of this substitution opportunity increase the average expected profit. Computational study is performed to observe the benefits of product's substitution.

Keywords: Fuzzy demand, Newsboy, Single-period problem, Substitution.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, Financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model.

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Authors: V.Pavlika

Abstract:

In this paper a numerical algorithm is described for solving the boundary value problem associated with axisymmetric, inviscid, incompressible, rotational (and irrotational) flow in order to obtain duct wall shapes from prescribed wall velocity distributions. The governing equations are formulated in terms of the stream function ψ (x,y)and the function φ (x,y)as independent variables where for irrotational flow φ (x,y)can be recognized as the velocity potential function, for rotational flow φ (x,y)ceases being the velocity potential function but does remain orthogonal to the stream lines. A numerical method based on the finite difference scheme on a uniform mesh is employed. The technique described is capable of tackling the so-called inverse problem where the velocity wall distributions are prescribed from which the duct wall shape is calculated, as well as the direct problem where the velocity distribution on the duct walls are calculated from prescribed duct geometries. The two different cases as outlined in this paper are in fact boundary value problems with Neumann and Dirichlet boundary conditions respectively. Even though both approaches are discussed, only numerical results for the case of the Dirichlet boundary conditions are given. A downstream condition is prescribed such that cylindrical flow, that is flow which is independent of the axial coordinate, exists.

Keywords: Inverse problem, irrotational incompressible flow, Boundary value problem.

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Authors: Maumita Bhattacharya

Abstract:

Evolutionary Algorithms are population-based, stochastic search techniques, widely used as efficient global optimizers. However, many real life optimization problems often require finding optimal solution to complex high dimensional, multimodal problems involving computationally very expensive fitness function evaluations. Use of evolutionary algorithms in such problem domains is thus practically prohibitive. An attractive alternative is to build meta models or use an approximation of the actual fitness functions to be evaluated. These meta models are order of magnitude cheaper to evaluate compared to the actual function evaluation. Many regression and interpolation tools are available to build such meta models. This paper briefly discusses the architectures and use of such meta-modeling tools in an evolutionary optimization context. We further present two evolutionary algorithm frameworks which involve use of meta models for fitness function evaluation. The first framework, namely the Dynamic Approximate Fitness based Hybrid EA (DAFHEA) model [14] reduces computation time by controlled use of meta-models (in this case approximate model generated by Support Vector Machine regression) to partially replace the actual function evaluation by approximate function evaluation. However, the underlying assumption in DAFHEA is that the training samples for the metamodel are generated from a single uniform model. This does not take into account uncertain scenarios involving noisy fitness functions. The second model, DAFHEA-II, an enhanced version of the original DAFHEA framework, incorporates a multiple-model based learning approach for the support vector machine approximator to handle noisy functions [15]. Empirical results obtained by evaluating the frameworks using several benchmark functions demonstrate their efficiency

Keywords: Meta model, Evolutionary algorithm, Stochastictechnique, Fitness function, Optimization, Support vector machine.

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Authors: S. Jalilzadeh, A. Kimiyaghalam, A. Ashouri

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This paper presents a mathematical model and a methodology to analyze the losses in transmission expansion planning (TEP) under uncertainty in demand. The methodology is based on discrete particle swarm optimization (DPSO). DPSO is a useful and powerful stochastic evolutionary algorithm to solve the large-scale, discrete and nonlinear optimization problems like TEP. The effectiveness of the proposed idea is tested on an actual transmission network of the Azerbaijan regional electric company, Iran. The simulation results show that considering the losses even for transmission expansion planning of a network with low load growth is caused that operational costs decreases considerably and the network satisfies the requirement of delivering electric power more reliable to load centers.

Keywords: DPSO, TEP, Uncertainty

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Authors: Joel S. Akintayo, Ramat T. Salman

Abstract:

The stakeholders’ pressure on corporate managers to maintain firm’s profitability has created economic incentives for management to engage in earnings management practices. Therefore, this study examines the effects of audit quality and corporate governance on earnings management of quoted deposit money banks (DMBs) in Nigeria. This study specifically investigates the influence of audit tenure, audit fee, board independence, and board size on earnings management of DMBs. Explanatory research design was employed in carrying out the study while secondary data were sourced from the annual reports and accounts of all the 15 quoted DMBs in Nigerian Stock Exchange as at December 31, 2015 for a period of 10 years covering from 2006 to 2015. The data obtained for the study were analyzed using panel regression analysis approach. The findings reveal that board independence has a negative significant effect on earnings management at a 5% level of significance (p=0.002), while audit fee has a positive significant effect on earnings management at a 5% level of significance (p=0.013) and audit tenure has a negative significant effect on earnings management of DMBs at a 5% level of significance (p=0.003). Surprisingly, board size was statistically not significant at a 5% level of significance (p=0.086). The study concludes that high audit quality and sound corporate governance could improve the earnings quality of DMBs. Hence, the study recommends that the authorities saddled with the responsibility of banking supervision in Nigeria such the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and CBN to advise the National Assembly in Nigeria to pass into law the three years professional requirement for audit tenure.

Keywords: Audit quality, audit tenure, audit fee, board independence, corporate governance, earnings management.

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Authors: Sunita Verma , Divya Tiwari, Ajay Verma

Abstract:

Water samples were collected from river Pandu at six stations where human and animal activities were high. Composite samples were analyzed for dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD) , pH values during dry and wet seasons as well as the harmattan period. The total data points were used to establish relationships between the parameters and data were also subjected to statistical analysis and expressed as mean ± standard error of mean (SEM) at a level of significance of p<0.05. Regression analysis was carried out to establish relationships if any between studied parameters and relationships in form of scatter plots were obtained between DO/BOD, COD/DO, BOD/COD, COD/pH, BOD/pH and DO/pH. The high to moderate correlation coefficient observed, R2 ranged from 0.68 to 0.15 between these parameters.

Keywords: BOD, DO, COD, pH, Regression analysis.

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Authors: Ishapathik Das

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs.

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Authors: Mahdiyeh Zafaranchi, Ethan S. Cantor, William T. Riddell, Jess W. Everett

Abstract:

The New Jersey Department of Military and Veteran’s Affairs (NJ DMAVA) operates over 50 facilities throughout the state of New Jersey, US. NJ DMAVA is under a mandate to move toward decarbonization, which will eventually include eliminating the use of natural gas and other fossil fuels for heating. At the same time, the organization requires increased resiliency regarding electric grid disruption. These competing goals necessitate adopting the use of on-site renewables such as photovoltaic and geothermal power, as well as implementing power control strategies through microgrids. Planning for these changes requires a detailed understanding of current and future electricity use on yearly, monthly, and shorter time scales, as well as a breakdown of consumption by heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. This paper discusses case studies of two buildings that were simulated using the QUick Energy Simulation Tool (eQUEST). Both buildings use electricity from the grid and photovoltaics. One building also uses natural gas. While electricity use data are available in hourly intervals and natural gas data are available in monthly intervals, the simulations were developed using monthly and yearly totals. This approach was chosen to reflect the information available for most NJ DMAVA facilities. Once completed, simulation results are compared to metrics recommended by several organizations to validate energy use simulations. In addition to yearly and monthly totals, the simulated peak demands are compared to actual monthly peak demand values. The simulations resulted in monthly peak demand values that were within 30% of the measured values. These benchmarks will help to assess future energy planning efforts for NJ DMAVA.

Keywords: Building Energy Modeling, eQUEST, peak demand, smart meters.

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