Search results for: risk cost
3042 Financial Analysis Analogies for Software Risk
Authors: Masood Uzzafer
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A dynamic software risk assessment model is presented. Analogies between dynamic financial analysis and software risk assessment models are established and based on these analogies it suggested that dynamic risk model for software projects is the way to move forward for the risk assessment of software project. It is shown how software risk assessment change during different phases of a software project and hence requires a dynamic risk assessment model to capture these variations. Further evolution of dynamic financial analysis models is discussed and mapped to the evolution of software risk assessment models.Keywords: Software Risk Assessment, Software ProjectManagement, Software Cost, Dynamic Modeling.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15403041 Evaluation of Optimal Transfer Capability in Power System Interconnection
Authors: Jin-O Kim, Hyun-Il Son
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As the electrical power industry is restructured, the electrical power exchange is becoming extended. One of the key information used to determine how much power can be transferred through the network is known as available transfer capability (ATC). To calculate ATC, traditional deterministic approach is based on the severest case, but the approach has the complexity of procedure. Therefore, novel approach for ATC calculation is proposed using cost-optimization method in this paper, and is compared with well-being method and risk-benefit method. This paper proposes the optimal transfer capability of HVDC system between mainland and a separated island in Korea through these three methods. These methods will consider production cost, wheeling charge through HVDC system and outage cost with one depth (N-1 contingency)
Keywords: ATC, power system interconnection, well-being method, cost-optimization method, risk-benefit analysis, outage cost.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16153040 Shariah Views on the Components of Profit Rate in Al-Murabahah Asset Financing in Malaysian Islamic Bank
Authors: M. Pisol B Mat Isa, Asmak Ab Rahman, Hezlina Bt M Hashim, Abd Mutalib B Embong
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Al-Murabahah is an Islamic financing facility used in asset financing, the profit rate of the contract is determined by components which are also being used in the conventional banking. Such are cost of fund, overhead cost, risk premium cost and bank-s profit margin. At the same time, the profit rate determined by Islamic banking system also refers to Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR) in London as a benchmark. This practice has risen arguments among Muslim scholars in term of its validity of the contract; whether the contract maintains the Shariah compliance or not. This paper aims to explore the view of Shariah towards the above components practiced by Islamic Banking in determining the profit rate of al-murabahah asset financing in Malaysia. This is a comparative research which applied the views of Muslim scholars from all major mazahibs in Islamic jurisprudence and examined the practices by Islamic banks in Malaysia for the above components. The study found that the shariah accepts all the components with conditions. The cost of fund is accepted as a portion of al-mudarabah-s profit, the overhead cost is accepted as a cost of product, risk premium cost consist of business risk and mitigation risk are accepted through the concept of alta-awun and bank-s profit margin is accepted as a right of bank after venturing in risky investment.Keywords: Islamic banking, Islamic finance, al-murabahah and asset financing
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 58993039 A Zero-Cost Collar Option Applied to Materials Procurement Contracts to Reduce Price Fluctuation Risks in Construction
Authors: H. L. Yim, S. H. Lee, S. K. Yoo, J. J. Kim
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This study proposes a materials procurement contracts model to which the zero-cost collar option is applied for heading price fluctuation risks in construction.The material contract model based on the collar option that consists of the call option striking zone of the construction company(the buyer) following the materials price increase andthe put option striking zone of the material vendor(the supplier) following a materials price decrease. This study first determined the call option strike price Xc of the construction company by a simple approach: it uses the predicted profit at the project starting point and then determines the strike price of put option Xp that has an identical option value, which completes the zero-cost material contract.The analysis results indicate that the cost saving of the construction company increased as Xc decreased. This was because the critical level of the steel materials price increasewas set at a low level. However, as Xc decreased, Xpof a put option that had an identical option value gradually increased. Cost saving increased as Xc decreased. However, as Xp gradually increased, the risk of loss from a construction company increased as the steel materials price decreased. Meanwhile, cost saving did not occur for the construction company, because of volatility. This result originated in the zero-cost features of the two-way contract of the collar option. In the case of the regular one-way option, the transaction cost had to be subtracted from the cost saving. The transaction cost originated from an option value that fluctuated with the volatility. That is, the cost saving of the one-way option was affected by the volatility. Meanwhile, even though the collar option with zero transaction cost cut the connection between volatility and cost saving, there was a risk of exercising the put option.Keywords: Construction materials, Supply chain management, Procurement, Payment, Collar option
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 25093038 Economic Evaluation Offshore Wind Project under Uncertainly and Risk Circumstances
Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti
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Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.
Keywords: Wind energy project; uncertain resources; risks; Monte Carlo simulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7853037 Risk Assessment in Durations and Costs for Construction of Industrial Facilities in Egypt Using Equations and Computer
Authors: M. Kamal Elbokl, Negadi Kheira
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Risk Evaluation is an important step in protecting your workers and your business, as well as complying with the law. It helps you focus on the risks that really matter in your workplace – the ones with the potential to cause real harm. We are in this paper introduce basics of risk assessment then we mention some of ways to risk evaluation by computer especially Monte Carlo simulation and Microsoft project.
We use Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) to deal with Risks in Industrial Facilities in Evaluation and Assessment for this risk. Using PERT Technique in Microsoft Project by the PERT toolbar and using PERTMASTER Program with Primavera Program we evaluate many hazards and make calculations for that by mathematical equation to make right decisions. We define and calculate risk factor and risk severity to ranking the type of the risk then dealing with it using in that many ways like probability computation, curves, and tables. By introducing variables in the equation of functions in computer programs we calculate the risk in the time and the cost in general case and then mention some examples in industrial facilities field.
Keywords: Risk, Industrial Facilities, PERT, Monte Carlo Simulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19403036 Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace
Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon
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This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.
Keywords: Ergonomics, musculoskeletal disorders, occupational diseases, risk factors.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20443035 Application of “Multiple Risk Communicator“ to the Personal Information Leakage Problem
Authors: Mitsuhiro Taniyama, Yuu Hidaka, Masato Arai, Satoshi Kai, Hiromi Igawa, Hiroshi Yajima, Ryoichi Sasaki
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Along with the progress of our information society, various risks are becoming increasingly common, causing multiple social problems. For this reason, risk communications for establishing consensus among stakeholders who have different priorities have become important. However, it is not always easy for the decision makers to agree on measures to reduce risks based on opposing concepts, such as security, privacy and cost. Therefore, we previously developed and proposed the “Multiple Risk Communicator" (MRC) with the following functions: (1) modeling the support role of the risk specialist, (2) an optimization engine, and (3) displaying the computed results. In this paper, MRC program version 1.0 is applied to the personal information leakage problem. The application process and validation of the results are discussed.Keywords: Decision Making, Personal Information Leakage Problem, Risk Communication, Risk Management
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16003034 Minimizing Risk Costs through Optimal Responses in NPD Projects
Authors: Chan-Sik Kim, Jong-Seong Kim, Se Won Lee, Hoo-Gon Choi
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In rapidly changing market environment, firms are investing a lot of time and resources into new product development (NPD) projects to make profit and to obtain competitive advantage. However, failure rate of NPD projects is becoming high due to various internal and external risks which hinder successful NPD projects. To reduce the failure rate, it is critical that risks have to be managed effectively and efficiently through good strategy, and treated by optimal responses to minimize risk cost. Four strategies are adopted to handle the risks in this study. The optimal responses are characterized by high reduction of risk costs with high efficiency. This study suggests a framework to decide the optimal responses considering the core risks, risk costs, response efficiency and response costs for successful NPD projects. Both binary particles warm optimization (BPSO) and multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) methods are mainly used in the framework. Although several limitations exist in use for real industries, the frame work shows good strength for handling the risks with highly scientific ways through an example.
Keywords: NPD projects, risk cost, strategy, optimal responses, Particle Swarm Optimization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19483033 Proposal of a Model Supporting Decision-Making on Information Security Risk Treatment
Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu
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Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.
Keywords: Information security risk treatment, Selection of risk measures, Risk acceptance and Multi-objective optimization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21233032 Wafer Fab Operational Cost Monitoring and Controlling with Cost per Equivalent Wafer Out
Authors: Ian Kree, Davina Chin Lee Yien
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This paper presents Cost per Equivalent Wafer Out, which we find useful in wafer fab operational cost monitoring and controlling. It removes the loading and product mix effect in the cost variance analysis. The operation heads, therefore, could immediately focus on identifying areas for cost improvement. Without this, they would have to measure the impact of the loading variance and product mix variance between actual and budgeted prior to make any decision on cost improvement. Cost per Equivalent Wafer Out, thereby, increases efficiency in wafer fab operational cost monitoring and controlling.
Keywords: Cost Control, Cost Variance, Operational Expenditure, Semiconductor.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23993031 A New Classification of Risk-Reduction Options to Improve the Risk-Reduction Readiness of the Railway Industry
Authors: Eberechi Weli, Michael Todinov
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The gap between the selection of risk-reduction options in the railway industry and the task of their effective implementation results in compromised safety and substantial losses. An effective risk management must necessarily integrate the evaluation phases with the implementation phase. This paper proposes an essential categorisation of risk reduction measures that best addresses a standard railway industry portfolio. By categorising the risk reduction options into design, operational, procedural and technical options, it is guaranteed that the efforts of the implementation facilitators (people, processes and supporting systems) are systematically harmonised. The classification is based on an integration of fundamental principles of risk reduction in the railway industry with the systems engineering approach.
This paper argues that the use of a similar classification approach is an attribute of organisations possessing a superior level of risk-reduction readiness. The integration of the proposed rational classification structure provides a solid ground for effective risk reduction.
Keywords: Cost effectiveness, organisational readiness, risk reduction, railway, system engineering.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17943030 Reliability-Based Life-Cycle Cost Model for Engineering Systems
Authors: Reza Lotfalian, Sudarshan Martins, Peter Radziszewski
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The effect of reliability on life-cycle cost, including initial and maintenance cost of a system is studied. The failure probability of a component is used to calculate the average maintenance cost during the operation cycle of the component. The standard deviation of the life-cycle cost is also calculated as an error measure for the average life-cycle cost. As a numerical example, the model is used to study the average life-cycle cost of an electric motor.
Keywords: Initial Cost, Life-cycle cost, Maintenance Cost, Reliability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22033029 Proposal of a Model Supporting Decision-Making Based On Multi-Objective Optimization Analysis on Information Security Risk Treatment
Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu
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Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Moreover, risks generally have trends and it also should be considered in risk treatment. Therefore, this paper provides the extension of the model proposed in the previous study. The original model supports the selection of measures by applying a combination of weighted average method and goal programming method for multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. The extended model includes the notion of weights to the risks, and the larger weight means the priority of the risk.
Keywords: Information security risk treatment, Selection of risk measures, Risk acceptanceand Multi-objective optimization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17123028 Multidimensional and Data Mining Analysis for Property Investment Risk Analysis
Authors: Nur Atiqah Rochin Demong, Jie Lu, Farookh Khadeer Hussain
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Property investment in the real estate industry has a high risk due to the uncertainty factors that will affect the decisions made and high cost. Analytic hierarchy process has existed for some time in which referred to an expert-s opinion to measure the uncertainty of the risk factors for the risk analysis. Therefore, different level of experts- experiences will create different opinion and lead to the conflict among the experts in the field. The objective of this paper is to propose a new technique to measure the uncertainty of the risk factors based on multidimensional data model and data mining techniques as deterministic approach. The propose technique consist of a basic framework which includes four modules: user, technology, end-user access tools and applications. The property investment risk analysis defines as a micro level analysis as the features of the property will be considered in the analysis in this paper.Keywords: Uncertainty factors, data mining, multidimensional data model, risk analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 29073027 On Identity Disclosure Risk Measurement for Shared Microdata
Authors: M. N. Huda, S. Yamada, N. Sonehara
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Probability-based identity disclosure risk measurement may give the same overall risk for different anonymization strategy of the same dataset. Some entities in the anonymous dataset may have higher identification risks than the others. Individuals are more concerned about higher risks than the average and are more interested to know if they have a possibility of being under higher risk. A notation of overall risk in the above measurement method doesn-t indicate whether some of the involved entities have higher identity disclosure risk than the others. In this paper, we have introduced an identity disclosure risk measurement method that not only implies overall risk, but also indicates whether some of the members have higher risk than the others. The proposed method quantifies the overall risk based on the individual risk values, the percentage of the records that have a risk value higher than the average and how larger the higher risk values are compared to the average. We have analyzed the disclosure risks for different disclosure control techniques applied to original microdata and present the results.Keywords: Anonymization, microdata, disclosure risk, privacy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13583026 A Concept to Assess the Economic Importance of the On-Site Activities of ETICS
Authors: V. Sulakatko, F. U. Vogdt, I. Lill
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Construction technology and on-site construction activities have a direct influence on the life cycle costs of energy efficiently renovated apartment buildings. The systematic inadequacies of the External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS) which occur during the construction phase increase the risk for all stakeholders, reduce mechanical durability and increase the life cycle costs of the building. The economic effect of these shortcomings can be minimised if the risk of the most significant on-site activities is recognised. The objective of the presented ETICS economic assessment concept is to evaluate the economic influence of on-site shortcomings and reveal their significance to the foreseeable future repair costs. The model assembles repair techniques, discusses their direct cost calculation methods, argues over the proper usage of net present value over the life cycle of the building, and proposes a simulation tool to evaluate the risk of on-site activities. As the technique is dependent on the selected real interest rate, a sensitivity analysis is anticipated to determine the validity of the recommendations. After the verification of the model on the sample buildings by the industry, it is expected to increase economic rationality of resource allocation and reduce high-risk systematic shortcomings during the construction process of ETICS.
Keywords: Activity-based cost estimating, Cost estimation, ETICS, Life cycle costing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8143025 An Optimization Model of CMMI-Based Software Project Risk Response Planning
Authors: Chun-guang Pan, Ying-wu Chen
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Risk response planning is of importance for software project risk management (SPRM). In CMMI, risk management was in the third capability maturity level, which provides a framework for software project risk identification, assessment, risk planning, risk control. However, the CMMI-based SPRM currently lacks quantitative supporting tools, especially during the process of implementing software project risk planning. In this paper, an economic optimization model for selecting risk reduction actions in the phase of software project risk response planning is presented. Furthermore, an example taken from a Chinese software industry is illustrated to verify the application of this method. The research provides a risk decision method for project risk managers that can be used in the implementation of CMMI-based SPRM.
Keywords: Software project, risk management, CMMI, riskresponse planning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20703024 A New Dimension in Software Risk Managment
Authors: Masood Uzzafer
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A dynamic risk management framework for software projects is presented. Currently available software risk management frameworks and risk assessment models are static in nature and lacks feedback capability. Such risk management frameworks are not capable of providing the risk assessment of futuristic changes in risk events. A dynamic risk management framework for software project is needed that provides futuristic assessment of risk events.Keywords: Software Risk Management, Dynamic Models, Software Project Managment.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17253023 Analysis of Risk-Based Disaster Planning in Local Communities
Authors: R. A. Temah, L. A. Nkengla-Asi
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Planning for future disasters sets the stage for a variety of activities that may trigger multiple recurring operations and expose the community to opportunities to minimize risks. Local communities are increasingly embracing the necessity for planning based on local risks, but are also significantly challenged to effectively plan and response to disasters. This research examines basic risk-based disaster planning model and compares it with advanced risk-based planning that introduces the identification and alignment of varieties of local capabilities within and out of the local community that can be pivotal to facilitate the management of local risks and cascading effects prior to a disaster. A critical review shows that the identification and alignment of capabilities can potentially enhance risk-based disaster planning. A tailored holistic approach to risk based disaster planning is pivotal to enhance collective action and a reduction in disaster collective cost.
Keywords: Capabilities, disaster planning, hazards, local community, risk-based.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10583022 The Economic Cost of Health and Safety in Work Places: An Approach on the Costs Calculating Model
Authors: Efat Lali Dastjerdi, Hassan Sadeghi Naeini, Hadi Sanjari
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One of the important steps in a safety and risk management system is the economical evaluation of occupational accident and diseases costs in order to decrease accidents from reoccurring in the workplace. This study proposed a plausible method for calculating occupational accident costs and illnesses in work place. This method design for cost estimation takes into account both the personnel, organizational level as well as the community level especially intended for an Iranian work place. The research indicates that a using systematic method for calculating costs which also provides risk evaluation can help managers to plan correctly the investment in health and safety measures. Using this method is that not only is it comprehensive, easy and practical and could be applied in practice by a manager within a short period of time but it also shows the importance of accident costs as well as calculates the real cost of an accident and illnesses.
Keywords: ost calculating model, Economics of health and Safety.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22153021 Quantification of Technology Innovation Usinga Risk-Based Framework
Authors: Gerard E. Sleefe
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There is significant interest in achieving technology innovation through new product development activities. It is recognized, however, that traditional project management practices focused only on performance, cost, and schedule attributes, can often lead to risk mitigation strategies that limit new technology innovation. In this paper, a new approach is proposed for formally managing and quantifying technology innovation. This approach uses a risk-based framework that simultaneously optimizes innovation attributes along with traditional project management and system engineering attributes. To demonstrate the efficacy of the new riskbased approach, a comprehensive product development experiment was conducted. This experiment simultaneously managed the innovation risks and the product delivery risks through the proposed risk-based framework. Quantitative metrics for technology innovation were tracked and the experimental results indicate that the risk-based approach can simultaneously achieve both project deliverable and innovation objectives.Keywords: innovation, risk assessment, product development, technology management.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15913020 Pension Plan Member’s Investment Strategies with Transaction Cost and Couple Risky Assets Modelled by the O-U Process
Authors: Udeme O. Ini, Edikan E. Akpanibah
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This paper studies the optimal investment strategies for a plan member (PM) in a defined contribution (DC) pension scheme with transaction cost, taxes on invested funds and couple risky assets (stocks) under the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) process. The PM’s portfolio is assumed to consist of a risk-free asset and two risky assets where the two risky assets are driven by the O-U process. The Legendre transformation and dual theory is use to transform the resultant optimal control problem which is a nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) into linear PDE and the resultant linear PDE is then solved for the explicit solutions of the optimal investment strategies for PM exhibiting constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) using change of variable technique. Furthermore, theoretical analysis is used to study the influences of some sensitive parameters on the optimal investment strategies with observations that the optimal investment strategies for the two risky assets increase with increase in the dividend and decreases with increase in tax on the invested funds, risk averse coefficient, initial fund size and the transaction cost.
Keywords: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, portfolio management, Legendre transforms, CARA utility.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4613019 A Survey on Usage and Diffusion of Project Risk Management Techniques and Software Tools in the Construction Industry
Authors: Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem, Alberto De Marco
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The area of Project Risk Management (PRM) has been extensively researched, and the utilization of various tools and techniques for managing risk in several industries has been sufficiently reported. Formal and systematic PRM practices have been made available for the construction industry. Based on such body of knowledge, this paper tries to find out the global picture of PRM practices and approaches with the help of a survey to look into the usage of PRM techniques and diffusion of software tools, their level of maturity, and their usefulness in the construction sector. Results show that, despite existing techniques and tools, their usage is limited: software tools are used only by a minority of respondents and their cost is one of the largest hurdles in adoption. Finally, the paper provides some important guidelines for future research regarding quantitative risk analysis techniques and suggestions for PRM software tools development and improvement.Keywords: Construction industry, Project risk management, Software tools, Survey study.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 29613018 Classification and Analysis of Risks in Software Engineering
Authors: Hooman Hoodat, Hassan Rashidi
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Despite various methods that exist in software risk management, software projects have a high rate of failure. When complexity and size of the projects are increased, managing software development becomes more difficult. In these projects the need for more analysis and risk assessment is vital. In this paper, a classification for software risks is specified. Then relations between these risks using risk tree structure are presented. Analysis and assessment of these risks are done using probabilistic calculations. This analysis helps qualitative and quantitative assessment of risk of failure. Moreover it can help software risk management process. This classification and risk tree structure can apply to some software tools.
Keywords: Risk analysis, risk assessment, risk classification, risk tree.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 90113017 Achieving Design-Stage Elemental Cost Planning Accuracy: Case Study of New Zealand
Authors: Johnson Adafin, James O. B. Rotimi, Suzanne Wilkinson, Abimbola O. Windapo
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An aspect of client expenditure management that requires attention is the level of accuracy achievable in design-stage elemental cost planning. This has been a major concern for construction clients and practitioners in New Zealand (NZ). Pre-tender estimating inaccuracies are significantly influenced by the level of risk information available to estimators. Proper cost planning activities should ensure the production of a project’s likely construction costs (initial and final), and subsequent cost control activities should prevent unpleasant consequences of cost overruns, disputes and project abandonment. If risks were properly identified and priced at the design stage, observed variance between design-stage elemental cost plans (ECPs) and final tender sums (FTS) (initial contract sums) could be reduced. This study investigates the variations between design-stage ECPs and FTS of construction projects, with a view to identifying risk factors that are responsible for the observed variance. Data were sourced through interviews, and risk factors were identified by using thematic analysis. Access was obtained to project files from the records of study participants (consultant quantity surveyors), and document analysis was employed in complementing the responses from the interviews. Study findings revealed the discrepancies between ECPs and FTS in the region of -14% and +16%. It is opined in this study that the identified risk factors were responsible for the variability observed. The values obtained from the analysis would enable greater accuracy in the forecast of FTS by Quantity Surveyors. Further, whilst inherent risks in construction project developments are observed globally, these findings have important ramifications for construction projects by expanding existing knowledge on what is needed for reasonable budgetary performance and successful delivery of construction projects. The findings contribute significantly to the study by providing quantitative confirmation to justify the theoretical conclusions generated in the literature from around the world. This therefore adds to and consolidates existing knowledge.
Keywords: Accuracy, design-stage, elemental cost plan, final tender sum, New Zealand.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17873016 Application of Artificial Neural Network to Forecast Actual Cost of a Project to Improve Earned Value Management System
Authors: Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh, Mansoureh Zarezadeh
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This paper presents an application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to forecast actual cost of a project based on the earned value management system (EVMS). For this purpose, some projects randomly selected based on the standard data set , and it is produced necessary progress data such as actual cost ,actual percent complete , baseline cost and percent complete for five periods of project. Then an ANN with five inputs and five outputs and one hidden layer is trained to produce forecasted actual costs. The comparison between real and forecasted data show better performance based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) criterion. This approach could be applicable to better forecasting the project cost and result in decreasing the risk of project cost overrun, and therefore it is beneficial for planning preventive actions.
Keywords: Earned Value Management System (EVMS), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Estimate At Completion, Forecasting Methods, Project Performance Measurement.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27503015 UEMSD Risk Identification – Case Study
Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon
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The article demonstrates on a case study how it is possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation Risk identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upperextremities musculoskeletal disorders.
Keywords: Case study, upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20553014 Scheduled Maintenance and Downtime Cost in Aircraft Maintenance Management
Authors: Remzi Saltoglu, Nazmia Humaira, Gokhan Inalhan
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During aircraft maintenance scheduling, operator calculates the budget of the maintenance. Usually, this calculation includes only the costs that are directly related to the maintenance process such as cost of labor, material, and equipment. In some cases, overhead cost is also included. However, in some of those, downtime cost is neglected claiming that grounding is a natural fact of maintenance; therefore, it is not considered as part of the analytical decision-making process. Based on the normalized data, we introduce downtime cost with its monetary value and add its seasonal character. We envision that the rest of the model, which works together with the downtime cost, could be checked with the real life cases, through the review of MRO cost and airline spending in the particular and scheduled maintenance events.
Keywords: Aircraft maintenance, downtime, downtime cost, maintenance cost.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 44093013 The Cost and Benefit on the Investment in Safety and Health of the Enterprises in Thailand
Authors: Charawee Butbumrung
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The purpose of this study is to evaluate the monetary worthiness of investment and the usefulness of risk estimation as a tool employed by a production section of an electronic factory. This study employed the case study of accidents occurring in production areas. Data is collected from interviews with six production of safety coordinators and collect the information from the relevant section. The study will present the ratio of benefits compared with the operation costs for investment. The result showed that it is worthwhile for investment with the safety measures. In addition, the organizations must be able to analyze the causes of accidents about the benefits of investing in protective working process. They also need to quickly provide the manual for the staff to learn how to protect themselves from accidents and how to use all of the safety equipment.
Keywords: Cost and benefit, enterprises in Thailand, investment in safety and health, risk estimation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 771