Search results for: Technological forecasting. S curves

Authors: Gizem Intepe, Tufan Koc

Abstract:

S-Curves are commonly used in technology forecasting. They show the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to describe the inflection points and the limit of improvement of a technology. Companies use this information to base their innovation strategies. However inadequate use and some limitations of this technique lead to problems in decision making. In this paper first technology forecasting and its importance for company level strategies will be discussed. Secondly the S-Curve and its place among other forecasting techniques will be introduced. Thirdly its use in technology forecasting will be discussed based on its advantages, disadvantages and limitations. Finally an application of S-curve on 3D TV technology using patent data will also be presented and the results will be discussed.

Keywords: Patent analysis, Technological forecasting. S curves, 3D TV

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

Abstract:

Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

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Authors: D. Mirauda, M. Greco, P. Moscarelli

Abstract:

The river flow forecasting represents a crucial point to employ for improving a management policy addressed to the right use of water resources as well as for conjugating prevention and defense actions against environmental degradation. The difficulties occurring during the field activities encourage the development and implementation of operative computation and measuring methods addressed to time reduction for data acquisition and processing maintaining a good level of accuracy. Therefore, the aim of the present work is to test a new entropy based expeditive methodology for the evaluation of the rating curves on three gauged sections with different geometric and morphological characteristics. The methodology requires the choice of only three verticals along the measure section and the sampling of only the maximum velocity. The results underline how in most conditions the rating curves drawn can replace those built with classic methodologies, simplifying thus the procedures of data monitoring and calculation.

Keywords: gauged station, entropic approach, expeditive methodology, rating curves.

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Authors: S. F. Wong, W. I. Ho, B. Lin, Q. Huang

Abstract:

ERP has been used in many enterprises for management, the accuracy of the production forecasting module is vital to the decision making of the enterprise, and the profit is affected directly. Therefore, enhancing the accuracy of the production forecasting module can also increase the efficiency and profitability. To deal with a lot of data, a suitable, reliable and accurate statistics model is necessary. LSSVM and Grey System are two main models to be studied in this paper, and a case study is used to demonstrate how the combination model is effective to the result of forecasting.

Keywords: ERP, Grey System, LSSVM, production forecasting.

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Authors: Simões, Evelyne Rolim Braun, Marques, Lana Grasiela Alves, Soares, Bruno Marques Pinheiro, Daniel Pascoalino, Santos, Maria Rita Morais Chaves, Pessoa, Claudia

Abstract:

The prospective analysis is presented as an important tool to identify the most relevant opportunities and needs in research and development from planned interventions in innovation systems. This study chose Phyllanthus niruri, known as "stone break" to describe the knowledge about the specie, by using biotechnological forecasting through the software Vantage Point. It can be seen a considerable increase in studies on Phyllanthus niruri in recent years and that there are patents about this plant since twenty-five years ago. India was the country that most carried out research on the specie, showing interest, mainly in studies of hepatoprotection, antioxidant and anti-cancer activities. Brazil is in the second place, with special interest for anti-tumor studies. Given the identification of the Brazilian groups that exploit the species it is possible to mediate partnerships and cooperation aiming to help on the implementing of the Program of Herbal medicines (phytotherapics) in Brazil.

Keywords: Phyllanthus niruri, phytotherapics, technological forecasting.

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Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

Abstract:

The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: Flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina.

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Authors: M. Centra

Abstract:

Due to the liberalization of countless electricity markets, load forecasting has become crucial to all public utilities for which electricity is a strategic variable. With the goal of contributing to the forecasting process inside public utilities, this paper addresses the issue of applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing technique and the time series analysis for forecasting the hourly electricity load curve of the Italian railways. The results of the analysis confirm the accuracy of the two models and therefore the relevance of forecasting inside public utilities.

Keywords: ARIMA models, Exponential smoothing, Electricity, Load forecasting, Rail transportation.

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Authors: Süha Yılmaz, Melih Turgut

Abstract:

The curves, of which the square of the distance between the two points equal to zero, are called minimal or isotropic curves [4]. In this work, first, necessary and sufficient conditions to be a Pseudo Helix, which is a special case of such curves, are presented. Thereafter, it is proven that an isotropic curve-s position vector and pseudo curvature satisfy a vector differential equation of fourth order. Additionally, In view of solution of mentioned equation, position vector of pseudo helices is obtained.

Keywords: Classical Differential Geometry, Euclidean space, Minimal Curves, Isotropic Curves, Pseudo Helix.

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Authors: S. H. Oudjana, A. Hellal, I. Hadj Mahammed

Abstract:

Photovoltaic power generation forecasting is an important task in renewable energy power system planning and operating. This paper explores the application of neural networks (NN) to study the design of photovoltaic power generation forecasting systems for one week ahead using weather databases include the global irradiance, and temperature of Ghardaia city (south of Algeria) using a data acquisition system. Simulations were run and the results are discussed showing that neural networks Technique is capable to decrease the photovoltaic power generation forecasting error.

Keywords: Photovoltaic Power Forecasting, Regression, Neural Networks.

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Authors: A. Chaouachi, R.M. Kamel, R. Ichikawa, H. Hayashi, K. Nagasaka

Abstract:

This paper presents the applicability of artificial neural networks for 24 hour ahead solar power generation forecasting of a 20 kW photovoltaic system, the developed forecasting is suitable for a reliable Microgrid energy management. In total four neural networks were proposed, namely: multi-layred perceptron, radial basis function, recurrent and a neural network ensemble consisting in ensemble of bagged networks. Forecasting reliability of the proposed neural networks was carried out in terms forecasting error performance basing on statistical and graphical methods. The experimental results showed that all the proposed networks achieved an acceptable forecasting accuracy. In term of comparison the neural network ensemble gives the highest precision forecasting comparing to the conventional networks. In fact, each network of the ensemble over-fits to some extent and leads to a diversity which enhances the noise tolerance and the forecasting generalization performance comparing to the conventional networks.

Keywords: Neural network ensemble, Solar power generation, 24 hour forecasting, Comparative study

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Authors: A. Basiri, S. Rahmany, D. Khatibi

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to review some of standard fact on Miura curves. We give some easy theorem in number theory to define Miura curves, then we present a new implementation of Arita algorithm for Miura curves.

Keywords: Miura curve, discrete logarithm problem, algebraic curve cryptography, Jacobian group.

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Authors: Neha Asthana, Vishal Krishna Prasad

Abstract:

Collaborative Planning and Forecasting is an innovative and systematic approach towards productive integration and assimilation of data synergized into information. The changing and variable market dynamics have persuaded global business chains to incorporate Collaborative Planning and Forecasting as an imperative tool. Thus, it is essential for the supply chains to constantly improvise, update its nature, and mould as per changing global environment.

Keywords: Information transfer, Forecasting, Optimization.

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Authors: Kaoutar Lamrini Uahabi, Mohamed Atounti

Abstract:

In the present work, we consider one category of curves denoted by L(p, k, r, n). These curves are continuous arcs which are trajectories of roots of the trinomial equation zn = αzk + (1 − α), where z is a complex number, n and k are two integers such that 1 ≤ k ≤ n − 1 and α is a real parameter greater than 1. Denoting by L the union of all trinomial curves L(p, k, r, n) and using the box counting dimension as fractal dimension, we will prove that the dimension of L is equal to 3/2.

Keywords: Feasible angles, fractal dimension, Minkowski sausage, trinomial curves, trinomial equation.

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Authors: Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In the last 15 years, a number of methods have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Most of the fuzzy time series methods are presented for forecasting of enrollments at the University of Alabama. However, the forecasting accuracy rates of the existing methods are not good enough. In this paper, we compared our proposed new method of fuzzy time series forecasting with existing methods. Our method is based on frequency density based partitioning of the historical enrollment data. The proposed method belongs to the kth order and time-variant methods. The proposed method can get the best forecasting accuracy rate for forecasting enrollments than the existing methods.

Keywords: Fuzzy logical groups, fuzzified enrollments, fuzzysets, fuzzy time series.

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Authors: Hanaa E.Sayed, Hossam A. Gabbar, Shigeji Miyazaki

Abstract:

This paper presents Faults Forecasting System (FFS) that utilizes statistical forecasting techniques in analyzing process variables data in order to forecast faults occurrences. FFS is proposing new idea in detecting faults. Current techniques used in faults detection are based on analyzing the current status of the system variables in order to check if the current status is fault or not. FFS is using forecasting techniques to predict future timing for faults before it happens. Proposed model is applying subset modeling strategy and Bayesian approach in order to decrease dimensionality of the process variables and improve faults forecasting accuracy. A practical experiment, designed and implemented in Okayama University, Japan, is implemented, and the comparison shows that our proposed model is showing high forecasting accuracy and BEFORE-TIME.

Keywords: Bayesian Techniques, Faults Detection, Forecasting techniques, Multivariate Analysis.

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Authors: Melike Şah, Konstantin Y.Degtiarev

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel improvement of forecasting approach based on using time-invariant fuzzy time series. In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, fuzzy time series can be also applied to problems, in which historical data are linguistic values. It is shown that proposed time-invariant method improves the performance of forecasting process. Further, the effect of using different number of fuzzy sets is tested as well. As with the most of cited papers, historical enrollment of the University of Alabama is used in this study to illustrate the forecasting process. Subsequently, the performance of the proposed method is compared with existing fuzzy time series time-invariant models based on forecasting accuracy. It reveals a certain performance superiority of the proposed method over methods described in the literature.

Keywords: Forecasting, fuzzy time series, linguistic values, student enrollment, time-invariant model.

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Authors: Zhiyong Li, Zhigang Chen, Chao Fu, Shipeng Zhang

Abstract:

Load forecasting has always been the essential part of an efficient power system operation and planning. A novel approach based on support vector machines is proposed in this paper for annual power load forecasting. Different kernel functions are selected to construct a combinatorial algorithm. The performance of the new model is evaluated with a real-world dataset, and compared with two neural networks and some traditional forecasting techniques. The results show that the proposed method exhibits superior performance.

Keywords: combinatorial algorithm, data mining, load forecasting, support vector machines

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Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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Authors: Pu Duan, Shi Cui, Choong Wah Chan

Abstract:

Finding suitable non-supersingular elliptic curves for pairing-based cryptosystems becomes an important issue for the modern public-key cryptography after the proposition of id-based encryption scheme and short signature scheme. In previous work different algorithms have been proposed for finding such elliptic curves when embedding degree k ∈ {3, 4, 6} and cofactor h ∈ {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}. In this paper a new method is presented to find more non-supersingular elliptic curves for pairing-based cryptosystems with general embedding degree k and large values of cofactor h. In addition, some effective parameters of these non-supersingular elliptic curves are provided in this paper.

Keywords: Family of group order, kth root of unity, non-supersingular elliptic curves polynomial field.

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Authors: Ghada Abdelmouez M., Fathy S. Helail, Abdellatif A. Elkouny

Abstract:

It is known that symmetric encryption algorithms are fast and easy to implement in hardware. Also elliptic curves have proved to be a good choice for building encryption system. Although most of the symmetric systems have been broken, we can create a hybrid system that has the same properties of the symmetric encryption systems and in the same time, it has the strength of elliptic curves in encryption. As DES algorithm is considered the core of all successive symmetric encryption systems, we modified DES using elliptic curves and built a new DES algorithm that is hard to be broken and will be the core for all other symmetric systems.

Keywords: DES, Elliptic Curves, hybrid system, symmetricencryption.

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Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah

Abstract:

This paper presents an Artificial Neural Network based approach for short-term load forecasting and exactly for two days ahead. Two seasons have been discussed for Iraqi power system, namely summer and winter; the hourly load demand is the most important input variables for ANN based load forecasting. The recorded daily load profile with a lead time of 1-48 hours for July and December of the year 2012 was obtained from the operation and control center that belongs to the Ministry of Iraqi electricity.

The results of the comparison show that the neural network gives a good prediction for the load forecasting and for two days ahead.

Keywords: Short-Term Load Forecasting, Artificial Neural Networks, Back propagation learning.

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Authors: Ali Heidari

Abstract:

This paper presents the principles for improving flood mitigation operation in multipurpose dams and maximizing reservoir performance during flood occurrence with a focus on the real-time operation of gated spillways. The criteria of operation include the safety of dams during flood management, minimizing the downstream flood risk by decreasing the flood hazard and fulfilling water supply and other purposes of the dam operation in mid and long terms horizons. The parameters deemed to be important include flood inflow, outlet capacity restrictions, downstream flood inundation damages, economic revenue of dam operation, and environmental and sedimentation restrictions. A simulation model was used to determine the real-time release of the Dez Dam located in the Dez Rivers in southwest Iran, considering the gate regulation curves for the gated spillway. The results of the simulation model show that there is a possibility to improve the current procedures used in the real-time operation of the dams, particularly using gate regulation curves and early flood forecasting system results. The Dez Dam operation data show that in one of the best flood control records, 17% of the total active volume and flood control pool of the reservoir have not been used in decreasing the downstream flood hazard despite the availability of a flood forecasting system.

Keywords: Dam operation, flood control criteria, Dez Dam, Iran.

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Authors: R. Mechgoug, A. Titaouine

Abstract:

Fuzzy systems have been successfully used for exchange rate forecasting. However, fuzzy system is very confusing and complex to be designed by an expert, as there is a large set of parameters (fuzzy knowledge base) that must be selected, it is not a simple task to select the appropriate fuzzy knowledge base for an exchange rate forecasting. The researchers often look the effect of fuzzy knowledge base on the performances of fuzzy system forecasting. This paper proposes a genetic fuzzy predictor to forecast the future value of daily US Dollar/Euro exchange rate time’s series. A range of methodologies based on a set of fuzzy predictor’s which allow the forecasting of the same time series, but with a different fuzzy partition. Each fuzzy predictor is built from two stages, where each stage is performed by a real genetic algorithm.

Keywords: Foreign exchange rate, time series forecasting, Fuzzy System, and Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Süha Yılmaz, Emin Özyılmaz, Melih Turgut

Abstract:

In the first part of this paper [6], a method to determine Frenet apparatus of the space-like curves in Minkowski space-time is presented. In this work, the mentioned method is developed for the time-like curves in Minkowski space-time. Additionally, an example of presented method is illustrated.

Keywords: Frenet Apparatus, Time-like Curves, MinkowskiSpace-time.

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Authors: Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain, Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar

Abstract:

The construction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves is one of the most common and useful tools in order to design hydraulic structures and to provide a mathematical relationship between rainfall characteristics. IDF curves, especially those in Peninsular Malaysia, are often built using moving windows of rainfalls. However, these windows do not represent the actual rainfall events since the duration of rainfalls is usually prefixed. Hence, instead of using moving windows, this study aims to find regionalized distributions for IDF curves of extreme rainfalls based on storm events. Homogeneity test is performed on annual maximum of storm intensities to identify homogeneous regions of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The L-moment method is then used to regionalized Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of these annual maximums and subsequently. IDF curves are constructed using the regional distributions. The differences between the IDF curves obtained and IDF curves found using at-site GEV distributions are observed through the computation of the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, mean percentage difference and the coefficient of determination. The small differences implied that the construction of IDF curves could be simplified by finding a general probability distribution of each region. This will also help in constructing IDF curves for sites with no rainfall station.

Keywords: IDF curves, L-moments, regionalization, storm events.

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Authors: Melih Turgut, José Luis López-Bonilla, Süha Yılmaz

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to determine Frenet-Serret invariants of non-null curves in Lorentzian 5-space. First, we define a vector product of four vectors, by this way, we present a method to calculate Frenet-Serret invariants of the non-null curves. Additionally, an algebraic example of presented method is illustrated.

Keywords: Lorentzian 5-space, Frenet-Serret Invariants, Nonnull Curves

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Authors: S. M. Anowarul Haque, Md. Asiful Islam

Abstract:

Electrical load forecasting is considered to be one of the most indispensable parts of a modern-day electrical power system. To ensure a reliable and efficient supply of electric energy, special emphasis should have been put on the predictive feature of electricity supply. Artificial Neural Network-based approaches have emerged to be a significant area of interest for electric load forecasting research. This paper proposed an Artificial Neural Network model based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm for improved electric load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh. The forecasting model is developed and simulated on the MATLAB environment with a large number of training datasets. The model is trained based on eight input parameters including historical load and weather data. The predicted load data are then compared with an available dataset for validation. The proposed neural network model is proved to be more reliable in terms of day-wise load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh.

Keywords: Load forecasting, artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: H. Naciba, C. Le Bas, C. Mothe, T.U. Nguyen-Thi

Abstract:

Organizational innovation favors technological innovation, but does it also influence technological innovation persistence? This article investigates empirically the pattern of technological innovation persistence and tests the potential impact of organizational innovation using firm-level data from three waves of the French Community Innovation Surveys. Evidence shows a positive effect of organizational innovation on technological innovation persistence, according to various measures of organizational innovation. Moreover, this impact is more significant for complex innovators (i.e., those who innovate in both products and processes). These results highlight the complexity of managing organizational practices with regard to the firm-s technological innovation. They also add to comprehension of the drivers of innovation persistence, through a focus on an often forgotten dimension of innovation in a broader sense.

Keywords: Organizational Innovation, Technological Innovation, Persistence

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Authors: Theodor D. Popescu

Abstract:

The paper presents a method for multivariate time series forecasting using Independent Component Analysis (ICA), as a preprocessing tool. The idea of this approach is to do the forecasting in the space of independent components (sources), and then to transform back the results to the original time series space. The forecasting can be done separately and with a different method for each component, depending on its time structure. The paper gives also a review of the main algorithms for independent component analysis in the case of instantaneous mixture models, using second and high-order statistics. The method has been applied in simulation to an artificial multivariate time series with five components, generated from three sources and a mixing matrix, randomly generated.

Keywords: Independent Component Analysis, second order statistics, simulation, time series forecasting

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Authors: Fatemeh Mosalman Yazdi

Abstract:

One of the most important requirements for the operation and planning activities of an electrical utility is the prediction of load for the next hour to several days out, known as short term load forecasting. This paper presents the development of an artificial neural network based short-term load forecasting model. The model can forecast daily load profiles with a load time of one day for next 24 hours. In this method can divide days of year with using average temperature. Groups make according linearity rate of curve. Ultimate forecast for each group obtain with considering weekday and weekend. This paper investigates effects of temperature and humidity on consuming curve. For forecasting load curve of holidays at first forecast pick and valley and then the neural network forecast is re-shaped with the new data. The ANN-based load models are trained using hourly historical. Load data and daily historical max/min temperature and humidity data. The results of testing the system on data from Yazd utility are reported.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Holiday forecasting, pickand valley load forecasting, Short-term load-forecasting.

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