Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 109

World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology

[Mechanical and Industrial Engineering]

Online ISSN : 1307-6892

109 Time Series Simulation by Conditional Generative Adversarial Net

Authors: Jie Chen, Rao Fu, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

Abstract:

Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Neural Network, Time series, conditional generative adversarial net, market and credit risk management

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108 Lexicon-Based Sentiment Analysis for Stock Movement Prediction

Authors: Zane Turner, Kevin Labille, Susan Gauch

Abstract:

Sentiment analysis is a broad and expanding field that aims to extract and classify opinions from textual data. Lexicon-based approaches are based on the use of a sentiment lexicon, i.e., a list of words each mapped to a sentiment score, to rate the sentiment of a text chunk. Our work focuses on predicting stock price change using a sentiment lexicon built from financial conference call logs. We introduce a method to generate a sentiment lexicon based upon an existing probabilistic approach. By using a domain-specific lexicon, we outperform traditional techniques and demonstrate that domain-specific sentiment lexicons provide higher accuracy than generic sentiment lexicons when predicting stock price change.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, Computational Finance, sentiment lexicon, stock movement prediction

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107 Forecasting Stock Indexes Using Bayesian Additive Regression Tree

Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, forecast, stock, BART

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106 A Stochastic Analytic Hierarchy Process Based Weighting Model for Sustainability Measurement in an Organization

Authors: Faramarz Khosravi, Gokhan Izbirak

Abstract:

A weighted statistical stochastic based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model for modeling the potential barriers and enablers of sustainability for measuring and assessing the sustainability level is proposed. For context-dependent potential barriers and enablers, the proposed model takes the basis of the properties of the variables describing the sustainability functions and was developed into a realistic analytical model for the sustainable behavior of an organization. This thus serves as a means for measuring the sustainability of the organization. The main focus of this paper was the application of the AHP tool in a statistically-based model for measuring sustainability. Hence a strong weighted stochastic AHP based procedure was achieved. A case study scenario of a widely reported major Canadian electric utility was adopted to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model and comparatively examined its results with those of an equal-weighted model method. Variations in the sustainability of a company, as fluctuations, were figured out during the time. In the results obtained, sustainability index for successive years changed form 73.12%, 79.02%, 74.31%, 76.65%, 80.49%, 79.81%, 79.83% to more exact values 73.32%, 77.72%, 76.76%, 79.41%, 81.93%, 79.72%, and 80,45% according to priorities of factors that have found by expert views, respectively. By obtaining relatively necessary informative measurement indicators, the model can practically and effectively evaluate the sustainability extent of any organization and also to determine fluctuations in the organization over time.

Keywords: Performance Measurement, Environmental Sustainability, Environmental Indicators, AHP, sustainability fluctuation

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105 Design of Stainless Steel Implant for Fractured Distal Femur

Authors: Abhishek Soni, Bhagat Singh

Abstract:

Perfect restoration of fractured distal femur has been a challenging task for the medical practitioners. In the present study, model of a fractured bone has been created using the scan data of the damaged bone. Thereafter, customized implant of Stainless Steel (SS-316L) for this fractured femur bone is modeled using the reverse engineering approach. Clinical set-up is prepared by assembling all the models together. Stress and deformation analysis of this clinical set-up has been performed in order to check the load bearing capacity and intactness of the joint. From this analysis, it has been inferred that the stresses and deformation developed due to the static load of the person is within the permissible limits.

Keywords: Reverse Engineering, Biomechanical evaluations, customized implant, stainless steel alloy

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104 Statistical Approach to Identify Stress and Biases Impairing Decision-Making in High-Risk Industry

Authors: Ph. Fauquet-Alekhine

Abstract:

Decision-making occurs several times an hour when working in high risk industry and an erroneous choice might have undesirable outcomes for people and the environment surrounding the industrial plant. Industrial decisions are very often made in a context of acute stress. Time pressure is a crucial stressor leading decision makers sometimes to boost up the decision-making process and if it is not possible then shift to the simplest strategy. We thus found it interesting to update the characterization of the stress factors impairing decision-making at Chinon Nuclear Power Plant (France) in order to optimize decision making contexts and/or associated processes. The investigation was based on the analysis of reports addressing safety events over the last 3 years. Among 93 reports, those explicitly addressing decision-making issues were identified. Characterization of each event was undertaken in terms of three criteria: stressors, biases impairing decision making and weaknesses of the decision-making process. The statistical analysis showed that biases were distributed over 10 possibilities among which the hypothesis confirmation bias was clearly salient. No significant correlation was found between criteria. The analysis indicated that the main stressor was time pressure and highlights an unexpected form of stressor: the trust asymmetry principle of the expert. The analysis led to the conclusion that this stressor impaired decision-making from a psychological angle rather than from a physiological angle: it induces defensive bias of self-esteem, self-protection associated with a bias of confirmation. This leads to the hypothesis that this stressor can intervene in some cases without being detected, and to the hypothesis that other stressors of the same kind might occur without being detected too. Further investigations addressing these hypotheses are considered. The analysis also led to the conclusion that dealing with these issues implied i) decision-making methods being well known to the workers and automated and ii) the decision-making tools being well known and strictly applied. Training was thus adjusted.

Keywords: stress, Expert, bias, high risk industry

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103 Numerical Investigation on the Interior Wind Noise of a Passenger Car

Authors: Liu Ying-jie, Lu Wen-bo, Peng Cheng-jian

Abstract:

With the development of the automotive technology and electric vehicle, the contribution of the wind noise on the interior noise becomes the main source of noise. The main transfer path which the exterior excitation is transmitted through is the greenhouse panels and side windows. Simulating the wind noise transmitted into the vehicle accurately in the early development stage can be very challenging. The basic methodologies of this study were based on the Lighthill analogy; the exterior flow field around a passenger car was computed using unsteady Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) firstly and then a Finite Element Method (FEM) was used to compute the interior acoustic response. The major findings of this study include: 1) The Sound Pressure Level (SPL) response at driver’s ear locations is mainly induced by the turbulence pressure fluctuation; 2) Peaks were found over the full frequency range. It is found that the methodology used in this study could predict the interior wind noise induced by the exterior aerodynamic excitation in industry.

Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics, Finite Element Method, wind noise, passenger car

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102 Simultaneous Optimization of Design and Maintenance through a Hybrid Process Using Genetic Algorithms

Authors: O. Adjoul, A. Feugier, K. Benfriha, A. Aoussat

Abstract:

In general, issues related to design and maintenance are considered in an independent manner. However, the decisions made in these two sets influence each other. The design for maintenance is considered an opportunity to optimize the life cycle cost of a product, particularly in the nuclear or aeronautical field, where maintenance expenses represent more than 60% of life cycle costs. The design of large-scale systems starts with product architecture, a choice of components in terms of cost, reliability, weight and other attributes, corresponding to the specifications. On the other hand, the design must take into account maintenance by improving, in particular, real-time monitoring of equipment through the integration of new technologies such as connected sensors and intelligent actuators. We noticed that different approaches used in the Design For Maintenance (DFM) methods are limited to the simultaneous characterization of the reliability and maintainability of a multi-component system. This article proposes a method of DFM that assists designers to propose dynamic maintenance for multi-component industrial systems. The term "dynamic" refers to the ability to integrate available monitoring data to adapt the maintenance decision in real time. The goal is to maximize the availability of the system at a given life cycle cost. This paper presents an approach for simultaneous optimization of the design and maintenance of multi-component systems. Here the design is characterized by four decision variables for each component (reliability level, maintainability level, redundancy level, and level of monitoring data). The maintenance is characterized by two decision variables (the dates of the maintenance stops and the maintenance operations to be performed on the system during these stops). The DFM model helps the designers choose technical solutions for the large-scale industrial products. Large-scale refers to the complex multi-component industrial systems and long life-cycle, such as trains, aircraft, etc. The method is based on a two-level hybrid algorithm for simultaneous optimization of design and maintenance, using genetic algorithms. The first level is to select a design solution for a given system that considers the life cycle cost and the reliability. The second level consists of determining a dynamic and optimal maintenance plan to be deployed for a design solution. This level is based on the Maintenance Free Operating Period (MFOP) concept, which takes into account the decision criteria such as, total reliability, maintenance cost and maintenance time. Depending on the life cycle duration, the desired availability, and the desired business model (sales or rental), this tool provides visibility of overall costs and optimal product architecture.

Keywords: Availability, life cycle cost, dynamic maintenance, simultaneous optimization, design for maintenance, DFM, LCC, maintenance free operating period, MFOP

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101 A Data Driven Approach for the Degradation of a Lithium-Ion Battery Based on Accelerated Life Test

Authors: Alyaa M. Younes, Nermine Harraz, Mohammad H. Elwany

Abstract:

Lithium ion batteries are currently used for many applications including satellites, electric vehicles and mobile electronics. Their ability to store relatively large amount of energy in a limited space make them most appropriate for critical applications. Evaluation of the life of these batteries and their reliability becomes crucial to the systems they support. Reliability of Li-Ion batteries has been mainly considered based on its lifetime. However, another important factor that can be considered critical in many applications such as in electric vehicles is the cycle duration. The present work presents the results of an experimental investigation on the degradation behavior of a Laptop Li-ion battery (type TKV2V) and the effect of applied load on the battery cycle time. The reliability was evaluated using an accelerated life test. Least squares linear regression with median rank estimation was used to estimate the Weibull distribution parameters needed for the reliability functions estimation. The probability density function, failure rate and reliability function under each of the applied loads were evaluated and compared. An inverse power model is introduced that can predict cycle time at any stress level given.

Keywords: Weibull distribution, reliability evaluation, lithium ion battery, Accelerated Life Test, inverse power law

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100 An Implementation of Fuzzy Logic Technique for Prediction of the Power Transformer Faults

Authors: Omar M. Elmabrouk., Roaa Y. Taha., Najat M. Ebrahim, Sabbreen A. Mohammed

Abstract:

Power transformers are the most crucial part of power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. This part is maintained using predictive or condition-based maintenance approach. The diagnosis of power transformer condition is performed based on Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA). There are five main methods utilized for analyzing these gases. These methods are International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) gas ratio, Key Gas, Roger gas ratio, Doernenburg, and Duval Triangle. Moreover, due to the importance of the transformers, there is a need for an accurate technique to diagnose and hence predict the transformer condition. The main objective of this technique is to avoid the transformer faults and hence to maintain the power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. In this paper, the DGA was utilized based on the data collected from the transformer records available in the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) which is located in Benghazi-Libya. The Fuzzy Logic (FL) technique was implemented as a diagnostic approach based on IEC gas ratio method. The FL technique gave better results and approved to be used as an accurate prediction technique for power transformer faults. Also, this technique is approved to be a quite interesting for the readers and the concern researchers in the area of FL mathematics and power transformer.

Keywords: Fuzzy Logic, prediction, power transformer, DGA, dissolved gas-in-oil analysis

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99 Studies on the Characterization and Machinability of Duplex Stainless Steel 2205 during Dry Turning

Authors: Gaurav D. Sonawane, Vikas G. Sargade

Abstract:

The present investigation is a study of the effect of advanced Physical Vapor Deposition (PVD) coatings on cutting temperature residual stresses and surface roughness during Duplex Stainless Steel (DSS) 2205 turning. Austenite stabilizers like nickel, manganese, and molybdenum reduced the cost of DSS. Surface Integrity (SI) plays an important role in determining corrosion resistance and fatigue life. Resistance to various types of corrosion makes DSS suitable for applications with critical environments like Heat exchangers, Desalination plants, Seawater pipes and Marine components. However, lower thermal conductivity, poor chip control and non-uniform tool wear make DSS very difficult to machine. Cemented carbide tools (M grade) were used to turn DSS in a dry environment. AlTiN and AlTiCrN coatings were deposited using advanced PVD High Pulse Impulse Magnetron Sputtering (HiPIMS) technique. Experiments were conducted with cutting speed of 100 m/min, 140 m/min and 180 m/min. A constant feed and depth of cut of 0.18 mm/rev and 0.8 mm were used, respectively. AlTiCrN coated tools followed by AlTiN coated tools outperformed uncoated tools due to properties like lower thermal conductivity, higher adhesion strength and hardness. Residual stresses were found to be compressive for all the tools used for dry turning, increasing the fatigue life of the machined component. Higher cutting temperatures were observed for coated tools due to its lower thermal conductivity, which results in very less tool wear than uncoated tools. Surface roughness with uncoated tools was found to be three times higher than coated tools due to lower coefficient of friction of coating used.

Keywords: Surface Integrity, HIPIMS, dry turning, DSS2205, Cutting temperatures

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98 Design for Metal Additive Manufacturing: An Investigation of Key Design Application on Electron Beam Melting

Authors: Osama Abdulhameed, Wadea Ameen, Abdulrahman Al-Ahmari

Abstract:

Electron beam melting (EBM) is one of the modern additive manufacturing (AM) technologies. In EBM, the electron beam melts metal powder into a fully solid part layer by layer. Since EBM is a new technology, most designers are unaware of the capabilities and the limitations of EBM technology. Also, many engineers are facing many challenges to utilize the technology because of a lack of design rules for the technology. The aim of this study is to identify the capabilities and the limitations of EBM technology in fabrication of small features and overhang structures and develop a design rules that need to be considered by designers and engineers. In order to achieve this objective, a series of experiments are conducted. Several features having varying sizes were designed, fabricated, and evaluated to determine their manufacturability limits. In general, the results showed the capabilities and limitations of the EBM technology in fabrication of the small size features and the overhang structures. In the end, the results of these investigation experiments are used to develop design rules. Also, the results showed the importance of developing design rules for AM technologies in increasing the utilization of these technologies.

Keywords: Additive manufacturing, electron beam melting, design for additive manufacturing, self-supporting overhang

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97 Automated, Objective Assessment of Pilot Performance in Simulated Environment

Authors: Maciej Zasuwa, Grzegorz Ptasinski, Antoni Kopyt

Abstract:

Nowadays flight simulators offer tremendous possibilities for safe and cost-effective pilot training, by utilization of powerful, computational tools. Due to technology outpacing methodology, vast majority of training related work is done by human instructors. It makes assessment not efficient, and vulnerable to instructors’ subjectivity. The research presents an Objective Assessment Tool (gOAT) developed at the Warsaw University of Technology, and tested on SW-4 helicopter flight simulator. The tool uses database of the predefined manoeuvres, defined and integrated to the virtual environment. These were implemented, basing on Aeronautical Design Standard Performance Specification Handling Qualities Requirements for Military Rotorcraft (ADS-33), with predefined Mission-Task-Elements (MTEs). The core element of the gOAT enhanced algorithm that provides instructor a new set of information. In details, a set of objective flight parameters fused with report about psychophysical state of the pilot. While the pilot performs the task, the gOAT system automatically calculates performance using the embedded algorithms, data registered by the simulator software (position, orientation, velocity, etc.), as well as measurements of physiological changes of pilot’s psychophysiological state (temperature, sweating, heart rate). Complete set of measurements is presented on-line to instructor’s station and shown in dedicated graphical interface. The presented tool is based on open source solutions, and flexible for editing. Additional manoeuvres can be easily added using guide developed by authors, and MTEs can be changed by instructor even during an exercise. Algorithm and measurements used allow not only to implement basic stress level measurements, but also to reduce instructor’s workload significantly. Tool developed can be used for training purpose, as well as periodical checks of the aircrew. Flexibility and ease of modifications allow the further development to be wide ranged, and the tool to be customized. Depending on simulation purpose, gOAT can be adjusted to support simulator of aircraft, helicopter, or unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV).

Keywords: Human Factors, pilot training, flight simulator, automated assessment

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96 Design and Fabrication of a Parabolic Trough Collector and Experimental Investigation of Wind Impact on Direct Steam Production in Tehran

Authors: S. Eslami, H. Akhbari, M. Bidi, A. Bakhtiari

Abstract:

The present paper aims to the techno-economic feasibility of enhancing low-cost parabolic trough collectors in the light of developing the use of solar energy in under-developed regions where expensive high-tech solar devices cannot be afforded. Moreover, the collector is aimed to produce steam so that its performance is based on heat which can be discovered. In this regard, the manufacturing process and the detailed design models in Solidworks software are elaborated. Furthermore, the colletor’s material is chosen in a way to minimize the costs. Finally, to assess the performance of the built collector, it is installed in the site of Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, and the values of the effective peripheral parameters, such as temperature, wind speed, and most importantly, solar irradiance, are recorded simultaneously in June. According to the results obtained, the manufactured collector with the aperture area of 2 m2 (1×2 m) is capable of producing 350 ml.h-1 steam. Also, the wind influence is comprehensively investigated in this paper. As a case in point, it was measured that as the wind speed maximized to 9.77 km/h, the amount of steam outlet is minimized to 580 ml.

Keywords: Experimental investigation, direct steam production, solar water heater, design and fabrication parabolic trough collector, wind impact

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95 Managing Multiple Change Projects in Supply Chains: A Case Study of a Moroccan Multi-Technical Services Company

Authors: Abdelouahab Errida, Bouchra Lotfi, Elalami Semma

Abstract:

In this paper, we try to address the topic of multiple change management by adopting an engineered research methodology, conducted within a Moroccan company during its implementation of several change projects that aim at improving its supply chain management performance. Firstly, we present the key concepts related to our research, namely change management, multiproject management and supply chain management. Then, we try to assess how the change management and multi-project management are applied in this company. Finally, we try to propose an approach that will help managers in dealing with multiple change projects. This approach proposes to integrate change management, project management and multi-project management for managing change projects according to three organizational levels: executive level, project portfolio level and change project level.

Keywords: Supply Chain Management, Project Management, Change Management, multi-project management, change portfolio

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94 WiFi Data Offloading: Bundling Method in a Canvas Business Model

Authors: Majid Mokhtarnia, Alireza Amini

Abstract:

Mobile operators deal with increasing in the data traffic as a critical issue. As a result, a vital responsibility of the operators is to deal with such a trend in order to create added values. This paper addresses a bundling method in a Canvas business model in a WiFi Data Offloading (WDO) strategy by which some elements of the model may be affected. In the proposed method, it is supposed to sell a number of data packages for subscribers in which there are some packages with a free given volume of data-offloaded WiFi complimentary. The paper on hands analyses this method in the views of attractiveness and profitability. The results demonstrate that the quality of implementation of the WDO strongly affects the final result and helps the decision maker to make the best one.

Keywords: Telecommunication, bundling, canvas business model, WiFi data offloading

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93 The Effect of Pulsator on Washing Performance in a Front-Loading Washer

Authors: Eung Ryeol Seo, Hee Tae Lim, Eunsuk Bang, Soon Cheol Kweon, Jeoung-Kyo Jeoung, Ji-Hoon Choic

Abstract:

The object of this study is to investigate the effect of pulsator on washing performance quantitatively for front-loading washer. The front-loading washer with pulsator shows washing performance improvement of 18% and the particle-based body simulation technique has been applied to figure out the relation between washing performance and mechanical forces exerted on textile during washing process. As a result, the mechanical forces, such as collision force and strain force, acting on the textile have turned out to be about twice numerically. The washing performance improvement due to additional pulsate system has been utilized for customers to save 50% of washing time.

Keywords: time saving, front-loading washer, mechanical force, fabric movement, pulsator

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92 Performance Improvement of Information System of a Banking System Based on Integrated Resilience Engineering Design

Authors: A. Mollajan, S. H. Iranmanesh, L. Aliabadi

Abstract:

Integrated resilience engineering (IRE) is capable of returning banking systems to the normal state in extensive economic circumstances. In this study, information system of a large bank (with several branches) is assessed and optimized under severe economic conditions. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) models are employed to achieve the objective of this study. Nine IRE factors are considered to be the outputs, and a dummy variable is defined as the input of the DEA models. A standard questionnaire is designed and distributed among executive managers to be considered as the decision-making units (DMUs). Reliability and validity of the questionnaire is examined based on Cronbach's alpha and t-test. The most appropriate DEA model is determined based on average efficiency and normality test. It is shown that the proposed integrated design provides higher efficiency than the conventional RE design. Results of sensitivity and perturbation analysis indicate that self-organization, fault tolerance, and reporting culture respectively compose about 50 percent of total weight.

Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis, Performance Evaluation, Banking System, DEA, perturbation analysis, integrated resilience engineering, IRE

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91 Implementation of ALD in Product Development: Study of ROPS to Improve Energy Absorption Performance Using Absorption Part

Authors: Shigeyuki Haruyama, Ken Kaminishi, Zefry Darmawan

Abstract:

Product development is a big issue in the industrial competition and takes a serious part in development of technology. Product development process could adapt high changes of market needs and transform into engineering concept in order to produce high-quality product. One of the latest methods in product development is Analysis-Led-Design (ALD). It utilizes digital engineering design tools with finite analysis to perform product robust analysis and valuable for product reliability assurance. Heavy machinery which operates under severe condition should maintain safety to the customer when faced with potential hazard. Cab frame should able to absorb the energy while collision. Through ALD, a series of improvement of cab frame to increase energy absorption was made and analyzed. Improvement was made by modifying shapes of frame and-or install absorption device in certain areas. Simulation result showed that install absorption device could increase absorption energy than modifying shape.

Keywords: Energy Absorption, ROPS, cab frame, ALD

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90 Mathematical Modeling of Drip Emitter Discharge of Trapezoidal Labyrinth Channel

Authors: N. Philipova

Abstract:

The influence of the geometric parameters of trapezoidal labyrinth channel on the emitter discharge is investigated in this work. The impact of the dentate angle, the dentate spacing, and the dentate height are studied among the geometric parameters of the labyrinth channel. Numerical simulations of the water flow movement are performed according to central cubic composite design using Commercial codes GAMBIT and FLUENT. Inlet pressure of the dripper is set up to be 1 bar. The objective of this paper is to derive a mathematical model of the emitter discharge depending on the dentate angle, the dentate spacing, the dentate height of the labyrinth channel. As a result, the obtained mathematical model is a second-order polynomial reporting 2-way interactions among the geometric parameters. The dentate spacing has the most important and positive influence on the emitter discharge, followed by the simultaneous impact of the dentate spacing and the dentate height. The dentate angle in the observed interval has no significant effect on the emitter discharge. The obtained model can be used as a basis for a future emitter design.

Keywords: Numerical Simulations, Drip Irrigation, reynolds stress model, labyrinth channel hydrodynamics

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89 Optimizing and Evaluating Performance Quality Control of the Production Process of Disposable Essentials Using Approach Vague Goal Programming

Authors: Ali Tajdin, Hadi Gholizadeh

Abstract:

To have effective production planning, it is necessary to control the quality of processes. This paper aims at improving the performance of the disposable essentials process using statistical quality control and goal programming in a vague environment. That is expressed uncertainty because there is always a measurement error in the real world. Therefore, in this study, the conditions are examined in a vague environment that is a distance-based environment. The disposable essentials process in Kach Company was studied. Statistical control tools were used to characterize the existing process for four factor responses including the average of disposable glasses’ weights, heights, crater diameters, and volumes. Goal programming was then utilized to find the combination of optimal factors setting in a vague environment which is measured to apply uncertainty of the initial information when some of the parameters of the models are vague; also, the fuzzy regression model is used to predict the responses of the four described factors. Optimization results show that the process capability index values for disposable glasses’ average of weights, heights, crater diameters and volumes were improved. Such increasing the quality of the products and reducing the waste, which will reduce the cost of the finished product, and ultimately will bring customer satisfaction, and this satisfaction, will mean increased sales.

Keywords: Quality Control, Goal Programming, fuzzy regression, vague environment, disposable glasses’ optimization

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88 Aerodynamic Coefficients Prediction from Minimum Computation Combinations Using OpenVSP Software

Authors: Marine Segui, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez

Abstract:

OpenVSP is an aerodynamic solver developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that allows building a reliable model of an aircraft. This software performs an aerodynamic simulation according to the angle of attack of the aircraft makes between the incoming airstream, and its speed. A reliable aerodynamic model of the Cessna Citation X was designed but it required a lot of computation time. As a consequence, a prediction method was established that allowed predicting lift and drag coefficients for all Mach numbers and for all angles of attack, exclusively for stall conditions, from a computation of three angles of attack and only one Mach number. Aerodynamic coefficients given by the prediction method for a Cessna Citation X model were finally compared with aerodynamics coefficients obtained using a complete OpenVSP study.

Keywords: Aerodynamic, Time, Cruise, coefficient, longitudinal, improving, OpenVSP, solver

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87 Analysis of Impact Load Induced by Ultrasonic Cavitation Bubble Collapse Using Thin Film Pressure Sensors

Authors: Nagalingam Arun Prasanth, S. H. Yeo, Moiz S. Vohra, Wei L. Tan

Abstract:

The understanding of generation and collapse of acoustic cavitation bubbles are prerequisites for application of cavitation erosion. Microbubbles generated due to rapid fluctuation of pressure induced by propagation of ultrasonic wave lead to formation of high velocity microjets and or shock waves upon collapse. Due to vast application of ultrasonic, it is important to characterize and understand cavitation collapse pressure under the radiating surface at different conditions. A comparative investigation is carried out to determine impact load and dynamic pressure distribution exerted upon bubble collapse using thin film pressure sensors. Measurements were recorded at different input conditions such as amplitude, stand-off distance, insertion depth of the horn inside the liquid and pulse on-off time of acoustic vibrations. Impact force of 2.97 N is recorded at amplitude of 108 μm and stand-off distance of 1 mm from the sensor film, whereas impulsive force as low as 0.4 N is recorded at amplitude of 12 μm and stand-off distance of 5 mm from the sensor film. The results drawn from the investigation indicated that variety of impact loads can be achieved by controlling generation and collapse of bubbles, making it suitable to use for numerous application.

Keywords: impact load, ultrasonic cavitation, bubble collapse, pressure mapping sensor

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86 Development of a Tilt-Rotor Aircraft Model Using System Identification Technique

Authors: Antonio Vitale, Nicola Genito, Giovanni Cuciniello, Ferdinando Montemari

Abstract:

The introduction of tilt-rotor aircraft into the existing civilian air transportation system will provide beneficial effects due to tilt-rotor capability to combine the characteristics of a helicopter and a fixed-wing aircraft into one vehicle. The disposability of reliable tilt-rotor simulation models supports the development of such vehicle. Indeed, simulation models are required to design automatic control systems that increase safety, reduce pilot's workload and stress, and ensure the optimal aircraft configuration with respect to flight envelope limits, especially during the most critical flight phases such as conversion from helicopter to aircraft mode and vice versa. This article presents a process to build a simplified tilt-rotor simulation model, derived from the analysis of flight data. The model aims to reproduce the complex dynamics of tilt-rotor during the in-flight conversion phase. It uses a set of scheduled linear transfer functions to relate the autopilot reference inputs to the most relevant rigid body state variables. The model also computes information about the rotor flapping dynamics, which are useful to evaluate the aircraft control margin in terms of rotor collective and cyclic commands. The rotor flapping model is derived through a mixed theoretical-empirical approach, which includes physical analytical equations (applicable to helicopter configuration) and parametric corrective functions. The latter are introduced to best fit the actual rotor behavior and balance the differences existing between helicopter and tilt-rotor during flight. Time-domain system identification from flight data is exploited to optimize the model structure and to estimate the model parameters. The presented model-building process was applied to simulated flight data of the ERICA Tilt-Rotor, generated by using a high fidelity simulation model implemented in FlightLab environment. The validation of the obtained model was very satisfying, confirming the validity of the proposed approach.

Keywords: System Identification, Flight Dynamics, flapping dynamics, tilt-rotor modeling and simulation

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85 Order Optimization of a Telecommunication Distribution Center through Service Lead Time

Authors: Tamás Hartványi, Ferenc Tóth

Abstract:

European telecommunication distribution center performance is measured by service lead time and quality. Operation model is CTO (customized to order) namely, a high mix customization of telecommunication network equipment and parts. CTO operation contains material receiving, warehousing, network and server assembly to order and configure based on customer specifications. Variety of the product and orders does not support mass production structure. One of the success factors to satisfy customer is to have a proper aggregated planning method for the operation in order to have optimized human resources and highly efficient asset utilization. Research will investigate several methods and find proper way to have an order book simulation where practical optimization problem may contain thousands of variables and the simulation running times of developed algorithms were taken into account with high importance. There are two operation research models that were developed, customer demand is given in orders, no change over time, customer demands are given for product types, and changeover time is constant.

Keywords: CTO, aggregated planning, demand simulation, changeover time

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84 Experimental Analysis and Optimization of Process Parameters in Plasma Arc Cutting Machine of EN-45A Material Using Taguchi and ANOVA Method

Authors: Raj Kumar, Sahil Sharma, Mukesh Gupta, N. S Bindra

Abstract:

This paper presents an experimental investigation on the optimization and the effect of the cutting parameters on Material Removal Rate (MRR) in Plasma Arc Cutting (PAC) of EN-45A Material using Taguchi L 16 orthogonal array method. Four process variables viz. cutting speed, current, stand-off-distance and plasma gas pressure have been considered for this experimental work. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) has been performed to get the percentage contribution of each process parameter for the response variable i.e. MRR. Based on ANOVA, it has been observed that the cutting speed, current and the plasma gas pressure are the major influencing factors that affect the response variable. Confirmation test based on optimal setting shows the better agreement with the predicted values.

Keywords: Taguchi method, analysis of variance, material removal rate, plasma arc cutting

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83 Dimensional Accuracy of CNTs/PMMA Parts and Holes Produced by Laser Cutting

Authors: A. Karimzad Ghavidel, M. Zadshakouyan

Abstract:

Laser cutting is a very common production method for cutting 2D polymeric parts. Developing of polymer composites with nano-fibers makes important their other properties like laser workability. The aim of this research is investigation of the influence different laser cutting conditions on the dimensional accuracy of parts and holes from poly methyl methacrylate (PMMA)/carbon nanotubes (CNTs) material. Experiments were carried out by considering of CNTs (in four level 0,0.5, 1 and 1.5% wt.%), laser power (60, 80, and 100 watt) and cutting speed 20, 30, and 40 mm/s as input variable factors. The results reveal that CNTs adding improves the laser workability of PMMA and the increasing of power has a significant effect on the part and hole size. The findings also show cutting speed is effective parameter on the size accuracy. Eventually, the statistical analysis of results was done, and calculated mathematical equations by the regression are presented for determining relation between input and output factor.

Keywords:

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82 Analysis of the Diffusion Behavior of an Information and Communication Technology Platform for City Logistics

Authors: Alberto De Marco, Giulio Mangano, Giovanni Zenezini

Abstract:

The concept of City Logistics (CL) has emerged to improve the impacts of last mile freight distribution in urban areas. In this paper, a System Dynamics (SD) model exploring the dynamics of the diffusion of a ICT platform for CL management across different populations is proposed. For the development of the model two sources have been used. On the one hand, the major diffusion variables and feedback loops are derived from a literature review of existing diffusion models. On the other hand, the parameters are represented by the value propositions delivered by the platform as a response to some of the users’ needs. To extract the most important value propositions the Business Model Canvas approach has been used. Such approach in fact focuses on understanding how a company can create value for her target customers. These variables and parameters are thus translated into a SD diffusion model with three different populations namely municipalities, logistics service providers, and own account carriers. Results show that, the three populations under analysis fully adopt the platform within the simulation time frame, highlighting a strong demand by different stakeholders for CL projects aiming at carrying out more efficient urban logistics operations.

Keywords: Simulation, System Dynamics, City Logistics, Business Model

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81 A Design for Supply Chain Model by Integrated Evaluation of Design Value and Supply Chain Cost

Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Jia-Shu Li

Abstract:

To design a product with the given product requirement and design objective, there can be alternative ways to propose the detailed design specifications of the product. In the design modeling stage, alternative design cases with detailed specifications can be modeled to fulfill the product requirement and design objective. Therefore, in the design evaluation stage, it is required to perform an evaluation of the alternative design cases for deciding the final design. The purpose of this research is to develop a product evaluation model for evaluating the alternative design cases by integrated evaluating the criteria of functional design, Kansei design, and design for supply chain. The criteria in the functional design group include primary function, expansion function, improved function, and new function. The criteria in the Kansei group include geometric shape, dimension, surface finish, and layout. The criteria in the design for supply chain group include material, manufacturing process, assembly, and supply chain operation. From the point of view of value and cost, the criteria in the functional design group and Kansei design group represent the design value of the product. The criteria in the design for supply chain group represent the supply chain and manufacturing cost of the product. It is required to evaluate the design value and the supply chain cost to determine the final design. For the purpose of evaluating the criteria in the three criteria groups, a fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) method is presented to evaluate a weighted index by calculating the total relational values among the three groups. A method using the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is used to compare and rank the design alternative cases according to the weighted index using the total relational values of the criteria. The final decision of a design case can be determined by using the ordered ranking. For example, the design case with the top ranking can be selected as the final design case. Based on the criteria in the evaluation, the design objective can be achieved with a combined and weighted effect of the design value and manufacturing cost. An example product is demonstrated and illustrated in the presentation. It shows that the design evaluation model is useful for integrated evaluation of functional design, Kansei design, and design for supply chain to determine the best design case and achieve the design objective.

Keywords: Supply Chain, Functional Design, Design Evaluation, fuzzy analytic network process, Kansei design, technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution, design value, manufacturing cost

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80 Entrepreneurship Education as a 21st Century Strategy for Economic Growth and Sustainable Development

Authors: M. Fems Kurotimi, Agada Franklin, Godsave Aladei, Opigo Helen

Abstract:

Within the last 30 years, entrepreneurship education (EE) has continued to gain massive interest both in the field of research and among policy makers. This surge in interest can be attributed to the perceived importance EE plays in the equipping of potential entrepreneurs and as a 21st century strategy to foster economic growth and development. This paper sets out to ascertain the correlation between EE and economic growth and development. A desk research approach was adopted where a multiplicity of literatures in the field were studied intensely. The findings reveal that indeed EE has a positive effect on entrepreneurship engagement thereby fostering economic growth and development. However, some research studies reported the contrary. That although EE may be able to equip potential entrepreneurs with requisite entrepreneurial skills and competencies, it will only be successful in producing entrepreneurs if they are internally driven to become entrepreneurs, because we cannot make people what they are not. The findings also reveal that countries that adopted EE early have more innovations inspired by entrepreneurs and are more developed than those that only recently adopted EE as a viable tool for entrepreneurship and economic development.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Sustainable Development, Economic Development, Economic growth, Entrepreneurship Education

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