Search results for: yield and forecast model

Authors: Ijaz Ahmed Khan, Zaheen Ullah, Rahamdad, Gul Hassan

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A field experiment was conducted at Agricultural Research Station Ahmad Wala, Karak, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province during rabi season of 2010-011 to study the effect of different weed management practices on weed control in chickpea under field conditions. The results revealed that treatments showed significant influence on weed density, seed yield kg ha-1 and other growth parameters. Significantly lower weed density (98 m-2) was recorded with the application of Isoproturon 500 EW as compared to control plots having 368.3 weeds m-2. Moreover, significantly highest seed yield (1583.3 kg ha-1) was produced in the plots assigned with Isoproturon 500 EW followed by Eucalyptus extract that produce seed yield of 1416.7 kg ha-1. It was concluded from the study that Isoproturon 500 EW is the best option for controlling weeds and increase the seed yield kg ha-1 of chickpea.

Keywords: chickpea, herbicides, weed control, weeds extracts

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Authors: Ali Assalmi

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This study aimed to compare the yield of two varieties of potato seeds under different water conditions. In the first part of the study, we conducted a literature review to gather academic research published on the two varieties. Based on the literature review, we optimized the water conditions for one variety and tested the other variety under high salinity water conditions. Our findings indicate that the optimized water conditions resulted in a very good yield for one variety of potato seeds. However, under high salinity water conditions, the other variety produced a higher yield in water that was not used due to the high salinity. Overall, our results suggest that the yield of potato seeds can vary significantly based on the water conditions and variety.

Keywords: potatoes, seed varieties, water optimization, high salinity, yield comparison

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Authors: Aswathi Thrivikraman, S. Advaith

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The study is aimed at designing encoders for deciphering intricacies in time series data by redescribing the dynamics operating on a lower-dimensional manifold. A semi-supervised LSTM autoencoder is devised and investigated to see if the latent representation of the time series data can better forecast the data. End-to-end training of the LSTM autoencoder, together with another LSTM network that is connected to the latent space, forces the hidden states of the encoder to represent the most meaningful latent variables relevant for forecasting. Furthermore, the study compares the predictions with those of a traditional seq2seq model.

Keywords: LSTM, autoencoder, forecasting, seq2seq model

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Authors: Rupali Thorat, S. B. Dodake, V. N. Palsande, S. D. Patil

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A field experiment was conducted to study the “Response of onion to FYM and inorganic fertilizers application on growth, yield and nutrient uptake in lateritic soil of Konkan” at the farm of Pangari block of Irrigation of Scheme, Central Experimentation Station, Wakawali during Rabi 2009-10. There were 12 treatment combinations, comprising of 3 levels of NPK fertilizers (C1 ,C2-125 kg N, 62.5 kg P205 and 62.5 kg K20 ha-1 and C3-150 kg N, 75 kg P205 and 75 kg K20 ha-1) and 4 levels of FYM (F1-10 t FYM ha-1, F2 - 15 t FYM ha-1, F3-20 t FYM ha-1, F4-25 t FYM ha-1) replicated thrice using Factorial Randomized Block Design. The observations on plant height, number of leaves, girth of plant, polar and equatorial diameter of bulb as well as dry matter yield, onion bulb yield recorded during the course of field study were subjected to statistical analysis. Similarly nutrient content and uptake, quality parameters of bulb and soil properties were also determined and their data were also analyzed statistically. It is revealed from the study that the growth attributes, dry matter yield, onion bulb yield, nutrient content, nutrient uptake, quality parameters were improved significantly due to application of NPK @ 150:75:75 kg ha-1 along with FYM @ 20 t ha-1(C3F3). Application of NPK @ 150:75:75 kg ha-1 along with FYM @ 20 t ha-1 (C3F3) registered highest onion bulb yield (t ha-1). The quality of onion as well as availability of N, P, K, Fe, Mn, Zn and Cu in the soil was improved due to application of NPK @ 150:75:75 kg ha-1 and FYM @ 20 t ha-1.

Keywords: onion, FYM, yield, nutrient uptake and fertilizer

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Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi

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In this paper, the BP neural network model is established to predict the carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City. First of all, we find the data of carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City from September 30, 2015 to December 23, 2016. The carbon trading price and trading volume data were processed to get the average value of each 5, 10, 20, 30, and 60 carbon trading price and trading volume. Then, these data are used as input of BP neural network model. Finally, after the training of BP neural network, the prediction values of Shanghai carbon trading price and trading volume are obtained, and the model is tested.

Keywords: Carbon trading price, carbon trading volume, BP neural network model, Shanghai City

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Authors: W. H. Wan Zakiyatussariroh, A. A. Nasuhar, W. Y. Wan Fairos, Z. A. Nazatul Shahreen

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Forecasting dengue incidence in a population can provide useful information to facilitate the planning of the public health intervention. Many studies on dengue cases in Malaysia were conducted but are limited in modeling the outbreak and forecasting incidence. This article attempts to propose the most appropriate time series model to explain the behavior of dengue incidence in Malaysia for the purpose of forecasting future dengue outbreaks. Several seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were developed to model Malaysia’s number of dengue incidence on weekly data collected from January 2001 to December 2011. SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 model was found to be the most suitable model for Malaysia’s dengue incidence with the least value of Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) for in-sample fitting. The models further evaluate out-sample forecast accuracy using four different accuracy measures. The results indicate that SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 performed well for both in-sample fitting and out-sample evaluation.

Keywords: time series modeling, Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, forecasting

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Authors: Simon Ingelsten, Anton Lundberg, Vijay Shankar, Lars-Olof Landström, Örjan Johansson

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The flow in a low consistency disc refiner is simulated with the aim of identifying flow structures possibly being of importance for a future study to optimise the energy efficiency in refining processes. A simplified flow geometry is used, where a single groove of a refiner disc is modelled. Two different fibre models are used to simulate turbulent fibre suspension flow in the groove. The first model is a Bingham viscoplastic fluid model where the fibre suspension is treated as a non-Newtonian fluid with a yield stress. The second model is a new model proposed in a recent study where the suspended fibres effect on flow is accounted for through a modelled orientation distribution function (ODF). Both models yielded similar results with small differences. Certain flow characteristics that were expected and that was found in the literature were identified. Some of these flow characteristics may be of importance in a future process to optimise the refiner geometry to increase the energy efficiency. Further study and a more detailed flow model is; however, needed in order for the simulations to yield results valid for quantitative use in such an optimisation study. An outline of the next steps in such a study is proposed.

Keywords: disc refiner, fibre flow, sustainability, turbulence modelling

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Authors: Yenesew Mengiste Yihun, Abraham Mehari Haile, Teklu Erkossa, Bart Schultz

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Teff (Eragrostic tef) is a staple food in Ethiopia. The local and international demand for the crop is ever increasing pushing the current price five times compared with that in 2006. To meet this escalating demand increasing production including using irrigation is imperative. Optimum application of irrigation water, especially in semi-arid areas is profoundly important. AquaCrop model application in irrigation water scheduling and simulation of water productivity helps both irrigation planners and agricultural water managers. This paper presents simulation and evaluation of AquaCrop model in optimizing the yield and biomass response to variation in timing and rate of irrigation water application. Canopy expansion, canopy senescence and harvest index are the key physiological processes sensitive to water stress. For full irrigation water application treatment there was a strong relationship between the measured and simulated canopy and biomass with r2 and d values of 0.87 and 0.96 for canopy and 0.97 and 0.74 for biomass, respectively. However, the model under estimated the simulated yield and biomass for higher water stress level. For treatment receiving full irrigation the harvest index value obtained were 29%. The harvest index value shows generally a decreasing trend under water stress condition. AquaCrop model calibration and validation using the dry season field experiments of 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 shows that AquaCrop adequately simulated the yield response to different irrigation water scenarios. We conclude that the AquaCrop model can be used in irrigation water scheduling and optimizing water productivity of Teff grown under water scarce semi-arid conditions.

Keywords: AquaCrop, climate smart agriculture, simulation, teff, water security, water stress regions

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Authors: Shatha A. Yousif, Hatem Jasim, Ali R. Abas, Dheya P. Yousef

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To study the effect of the cross direction in bead wheat, three hybrid combinations (Babyle 113 , Iratome), (Sawa , Tamose2) and (Al Hashymya Al Iraq) were tested for plant height, number of tillers/m, number of grains per spike, weight of grains per spike, 1000-grain weight and grain yield. The results revealed that the direction of the cross had significant effect the number of grain/spike, tillers/m and grain yields. Grain yield was positively and significantly correlated with 1000-grain weight, number of grains per spike and tillers. Depend on the result of heritability and genetic advance it was suggested that 1000-grain weight number of grains per spike and tillers should be given emphasis for future wheat yield improvement programs.

Keywords: correlation, genetic advance, heritability, wheat, yield traits

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Authors: S. M. T. Mustafa, D. Raes, M. Huysmans

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Proper utilization of water resource is very important in agro-based Bangladesh. Irrigation schedule based on local environmental conditions, soil type and water availability will allow a sustainable use of water resources in agriculture. In this study, the FAO crop water model (AquaCrop) was used to simulate the different water and fertilizer management strategies in different location of Bangladesh to obtain a management guideline for the farmer. Model was calibrated and validated for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). The statistical indices between the observed and simulated grain yields obtained were very good with R2, RMSE, and EF values of 0.92, 0.33, and 0.83, respectively for model calibration and 0.92, 0.68 and 0.77, respectively for model validations. Stem elongation (jointing) to booting and flowering stage were identified as most water sensitive for wheat. Deficit irrigation on water sensitive stage could increase the grain yield for increasing soil fertility levels both for loamy and sandy type soils. Deficit irrigation strategies provides higher water productivity than full irrigation strategies and increase the yield stability (reduce the standard deviation). The practical deficit irrigation schedule for wheat for four different stations and two different soils were designed. Farmer can produce more crops by using deficit irrigation schedule under water stress condition. Practical application and validation of proposed strategies will make them more credible.

Keywords: crop-water model, deficit irrigation, irrigation scheduling, wheat

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Authors: Kittiphop Promdee, Somruedee Satitkune, Chakkrich Boonmee, Tharapong Vitidsant

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Conversion of tropical wood using the process of pyrolysis, which converts tropical wood into fuel products, i.e. bio-oil and charcoal. The results showed the high thermal in the reactor core was thermally controlled between 0-600°C within 60 minutes. The products yield calculation showed that the liquid yield obtained from tropical wood was at its highest at 39.42 %, at 600°C, indicating that the tropical wood had received good yields because of a low gas yield average and high solid and liquid yield average. This research is not only concerned with the controlled temperatures, but also with the controlled screw rotating and feeding rate of biomass.

Keywords: pyrolysis, tropical wood, bio-oil, charcoal, heating value, SEM

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Authors: Lale Efe, Zeynep Gokce

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In this study carried out in 2013-14 growing season in East Mediterranean Region of Turkey, it was aimed to investigate the effects of different sowing times on the seed yield and quality of fenugreek (Trigonella foenum graceum L.). Three fenugreek genotypes (Gürarslan, Candidate Line-1 and Genotype-1) were sown on 13.11.2013 and 07.03.2014 according to factorial randomized block design with 3 replications. Plant height (cm), branch number per plant, first pod height (cm), pod length (mm), seed number per pod (g), seed yield per plant (g), seed yield per decar (kg), thousand seed weight (g), mucilage rate (%), seed protein ratio (%), seed oil ratio (%), oleic acid (%), linoleic acid (%), palmitic acid (%) and stearic acid (%) were investigated. Among genotypes, while the highest seed yield per plant was obtained from Genotype-1 (5 g/plant), the lowest seed yield per plant was obtained from cv. Gürarslan (3.4 g/plant). According to genotype x sowing date interactions, it can be said that the highest seed yield per plant was taken in autumn sowing from Genotype-1 (6.6 g/plant) and the lowest seed yield per plant was taken in spring sowing from cv. Gürarslan (2.9 g/plant). Genotype-1 had the highest linoleic acid ratio (41.6 %). Cv. Gürarslan and Candidate Line-1 had the highest oleic acid ratio (respectively 17.8 % and 17.6%).

Keywords: fenugreek, seed yield and quality, sowing times, Trigonella foenum graecum L.

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Authors: Khuram Nawaz Sadozai, Rizwan Ahmad, Munawar Raza Kazmi, Awais Habib

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Climate change and crop production are intrinsically associated with each other. Therefore, this research study is designed to assess the impact of climate change on pulses production in Southern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province of Pakistan. Two pulses (i.e. chickpea and mung bean) were selected for this research study with respect to climate change. Climatic variables such as temperature, humidity and precipitation along with pulses production and area under cultivation of pulses were encompassed as the major variables of this study. Secondary data of climatic variables and crop variables for the period of thirty four years (1986-2020) were obtained from Pakistan Metrological Department and Agriculture Statistics of KP respectively. Panel data set of chickpea and mung bean crops was estimated separately. The analysis validate that both data sets were a balanced panel data. The Hausman specification test was run separately for both the panel data sets whose findings had suggested the fixed effect model can be deemed as an appropriate model for chickpea panel data, however random effect model was appropriate for estimation of the panel data of mung bean. Major findings confirm that maximum temperature is statistically significant for the chickpea yield. This implies if maximum temperature increases by 1 0C, it can enhance the chickpea yield by 0.0463 units. However, the impact of precipitation was reported insignificant. Furthermore, the humidity was statistically significant and has a positive association with chickpea yield. In case of mung bean the minimum temperature was significantly contributing in the yield of mung bean. This study concludes that temperature and humidity can significantly contribute to enhance the pulses yield. It is recommended that capacity building of pulses growers may be made to adapt the climate change strategies. Moreover, government may ensure the availability of climate change resistant varieties of pulses to encourage the pulses cultivation.

Keywords: climate change, pulses productivity, agriculture, Pakistan

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Authors: Draoui Belkacem, Rahmani Lakhdar, Benachour Elhadj, Seghier Oussama

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Rheology is known to have a strong impact on the flow behavior and the power consumption of mechanically agitated vessels. The laminar 2D agitation flow and power consumption of viscoplastic fluids with an anchor impeller in a stirring tank is studied by using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). In this work the objective of this paper is: to evaluate the power consumption for yield stress fluids in standard mixing system. The power consumption is calculated for the different types of anchor impeller configurations and an optimum configuration is proposed.The hydrodynamic fields of incompressible yield stress fluid with model of Bingham in a cylindrical vessel not chicaned equipped with anchor stirrer was undertaken by means of numerical simulation. The flow structures, and especially the effect of inertia, the plasticity and the yield stress, are discussed.

Keywords: rheology, 2D, numerical, anchor, rotating vissel, non-Newtonien fluid

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Authors: Kashan Bashir, Salah Naji Ahmed Sufyan, Mirza Umar Baig

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In this study, n-dodecane, tetralin, decalin, and tetramethybenzene (TMBE) were used as model compounds of alkanes, naphthenic-aromatic, cycloalkanes and alkyl-benzenes presented in hydro-diesel. The catalytic cracking properties of four model compounds over Y zeolite catalyst (Y-Cat.) and ZSM-5 zeolite catalysts (ZSM-5-Cat.) were probed. The experiment results revealed that high conversion of macromolecular paraffin and naphthenic aromatics were achieved over Y-Cat, whereas its low cracking activity of intermediate products micromolecules paraffin and olefin and high activity of hydride transfer reaction goes against the production of value-added products (light olefin and gasoline). In contrast, despite the fact that the hydride transfer reaction was greatly inhabited over ZSM-5-Cat, the low conversion of macromolecules was observed attributed to diffusion limitations. Interestingly, the mixed catalyst compensates for the shortcomings of the two catalysts, and a “relay reaction” between Y-Cat and ZSM-5-Cat was proposed. Specifically, the added Y-Cat acts as a “pre-cracking booster site” and promotes macromolecules conversion. The addition of ZSM-5-Cat not only significantly suppresses the hydride transfer reaction but also contributes to the cracking of immediate products paraffin and olefin into ethylene and propylene, resulting in a high yield of alkyl-benzene (gasoline), ethylene, and propylene with a low yield of naphthalene (LCO) and coke. The catalytic cracking evaluation experiments of mixed hydro-LCO were also performed to further clarify the “relay reaction” above, showing the highest yield of LPG and gasoline over mixed catalyst. The results indicate that the Y-cat and ZSM-5-cat have a synergistic effect on the conversion of hydro-diesel and corresponding value-added product yield and selective coke yield.

Keywords: synergistic effect, hydro-diesel cracking, FCC, zeolite catalyst, ethylene and propylene

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Authors: S. B. V. S. P. Sastry, V. V. S. Kesava Rao

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In this paper, x-ray impact of Taguchi method and design of experiment philosophy to project relationship between various factors leading to output yield strength of rebar is studied. In bar mill of an integrated steel plant, there are two production lines called as line 1 and line 2. The metallic properties e.g. yield strength of finished product of the same material is varying for a particular grade material when rolled simultaneously in both the lines. A study has been carried out to set the process parameters at optimal level for obtaining equal value of yield strength simultaneously for both lines.

Keywords: bar mill, design of experiment, taguchi, yield strength

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Authors: Olusegun Raphael Adeyemi, Samuel Oluwaseun Osunleti, Abiddin Adekunle Bashiruddin

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Field trials were conducted in 2020 and 2021 at the Teaching and Research Farm of the Federal University of Agriculture Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria to evaluate the effect of biochar application under different weeding regimes on growth and yield of okra. Treatments were laid out in split- plot in a randomized complete block design with three replications. Main plot treatments were three levels of biochar namely 0t/ha, 10t/ha and 20t/ha while sub-plots treatments consisted of four weeding regimes (weeding at 3, 6 and 9 WAS, weeding at 3 and 6 WAS, weeding at 3 WAS and weedy check as control). Data collected on growth and yield of okra, and weed parameters were subjected to analysis of variance and treatment means were separated using least significant difference at p < 0.05. Results showed that biochar applied at 20 t/ha increased okra yield by 47.5% compared to the control. Weeding at 3, 6 and 9 WAS gave the highest okra yield. Uncontrolled weed infestation throughout crop growth resulted in 87.3% yield reduction in okra. It is concluded that weed suppression , growth and yield of okra can be enhanced by the application of biochar at 20t/ha and weeding at 3, 6 and 9 WAS hence recommended.

Keywords: biochar, okra, weeding, weed competition

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Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

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Recently, oil has become more influential in almost every economic sector as a key material. As can be seen from the news, when there are some changes in an oil price or OPEC announces a new strategy, its effect spreads to every part of the economy directly and indirectly. That’s a reason why people always observe the oil price and try to forecast the changes of it. The most important factor affecting the price is its supply which is determined by the number of wildcats drilled. Therefore, a study about the number of wellheads and other economic variables may give us some understanding of the mechanism indicated by the amount of oil supplies. In this paper, we will consider a relationship between the number of wellheads and three key factors: the price of the wellhead, domestic output, and GNP constant dollars. We also add trend variables in the models because the consumption of oil varies from time to time. Moreover, this paper will use an econometrics method to estimate parameters in the model, apply some tests to verify the result we acquire, and then conclude the model.

Keywords: price, domestic output, GNP, trend variable, wildcat activity

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Authors: Khattab E. A., Gehan A. Amin

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The aim of the experiment was to investigate yield and yield components under effect of three different tillage systems and three faba bean varieties on clay-loamy soils. The experiment was conducted as split plot design having tillage systems in main plot and varieties in subplot. A field trial was conducted during the winter seasons of 2021-2022 and 2022-2-23, respectively in private of the agricultural lands of Shobra Beddin village, which belongs to Mansoura District of Dakahlia Province 31°, (04457)- N latitude and 31°4757- E longitude. The soil was prepared. The Seeds covered with a thin layer of soil, sown and watered. Three weeks later, the developed plants were thinned. Finally, the plants collected after 110 days of growth. Growth, yield and chemical contents determined. The results showed that the highest yield in the traditional tillage system corresponds to the superior to other tillage systems. In addition, In the variety comparison, the Sakha 1 variety was characterized by the highest yield as well as the highest values of plant growth properties among the three varieties. Conclusion: The traditional tillage system is increase grain yield of variety Sakha 1 compared with other varieties.

Keywords: yield, tillage system, varieties, faba bean

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Authors: Moses E. Emetere, M. L. Akinyemi

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Agricultural activities in the South–West Nigeria are mitigated by the global increase in temperature. The unpredictive surface temperature of the area had increased health challenges amongst other social influence. The satellite data of surface temperatures were compared with the ground station Davis weather station. The differential heating of the lower atmosphere were represented mathematically. A numerical predictive model was propounded to forecast future surface temperature.

Keywords: numerical predictive model, surface temperature, satellite date, ground data

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Authors: Wiwat Kittinaraporn, Napat Harnpornchai, Sutja Boonyachut

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This paper deals with the application of a novel neural network technique, so-called Support Vector Machine (SVM). The objective of this study is to explore the variable and parameter of forecasting factors in the construction industry to build up forecasting model for construction quantity in Thailand. The scope of the research is to study the non-residential construction quantity in Thailand. There are 44 sets of yearly data available, ranging from 1965 to 2009. The correlation between economic indicators and construction demand with the lag of one year was developed by Apichat Buakla. The selected variables are used to develop SVM models to forecast the non-residential construction quantity in Thailand. The parameters are selected by using ten-fold cross-validation method. The results are indicated in term of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE value for the non-residential construction quantity predicted by Epsilon-SVR in corporation with Radial Basis Function (RBF) of kernel function type is 5.90. Analysis of the experimental results show that the support vector machine modelling technique can be applied to forecast construction quantity time series which is useful for decision planning and management purpose.

Keywords: forecasting, non-residential, construction, support vector machines

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Authors: Quang Minh Dinh, Jian Guang Qin, Sabine Dittmann, Dinh Dac Tran

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The age and population structure the dermal gopy Parapocryptes serperaster were studied using length distributions, otolith and von Bertalanffy model in the Mekong Delta over a whole year through monthly sampling. The sex ratio of P. serperaster was near 1:1, and von Bertalanffy growth parameters were L∞= 25.2 cm, K = 0.74 yr-1, and t0 = -0.22 yr-1. Fish size at first entry to fishery was 14.6 cm, and fishing mortality (1.57 yr-1) and natural mortality (1.51 yr-1) accounted for 51% and 49% of the total mortality (3.07 yr-1), respectively. Relative yield-per-recruit and biomass-per-recruit analyses revealed the levels of maximum exploitation yield (Emax = 0.83), maximum economic yield (E0.1 = 0.71) and the yield at 50% reduction of exploitation (E0.5 = 0.37). Otoliths from 164 female and 196 male gobies were readable, and the otolith morphometry data were used for age identification. The mean age estimated by reading otolith annual rings and by analysing length frequency distribution was consistent. This study shows that the otolith morphometry is a reliable method for aging this goby and possibly also applicable for other tropical gobies. The fishery analysis indicates that this goby stock has not been overexploited in the Mekong Delta.

Keywords: Parapcryptes serperaster, otolith, age, pulation structure, Vietnam

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Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

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The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable in one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity, and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021, and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables on the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of the Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: exchange rate, random forest, time series, machine learning, prediction

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Authors: Hacene Benkhoula, Mohamed Badreddine Benabdella, Hamid Bouzeboudja, Abderrahmane Asraoui

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The wind is a random variable difficult to master, for this, we developed a mathematical and statistical methods enable to modeling and forecast wind power. Gaussian Processes (GP) is one of the most widely used families of stochastic processes for modeling dependent data observed over time, or space or time and space. GP is an underlying process formed by unrecognized operator’s uses to solve a problem. The purpose of this paper is to present how to forecast wind power by using the GP. The Gaussian process method for forecasting are presented. To validate the presented approach, a simulation under the MATLAB environment has been given.

Keywords: wind power, Gaussien process, modelling, forecasting

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Authors: Qamar Iqbal

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Companies strive to improve their forecasting methods to predict the fluctuations in customer demand. These fluctuation and variation in demand affect the manufacturing operations and can limit a company’s ability to fulfill customer demand on time. Companies keep the inventory buffer and maintain the stocking levels to reduce the impact of demand variation. A mid-size company deals with thousands of stock keeping units (skus). It is neither easy and nor efficient to control and manage each sku. Inventory classification provides a tool to the management to increase their ability to support customer demand. The paper presents a framework that shows how inventory classification can play a role to increase supply chain responsiveness. A case study will be presented to further elaborate the method both for build-to-order and build-to-forecast manufacturing environments. Results will be compared that will show which manufacturing setting has advantage over another under different circumstances. The outcome of this study is very useful to the management because this will give them an insight on how inventory classification can be used to increase their ability to respond to changing customer needs.

Keywords: inventory classification, supply chain responsiveness, forecast, manufacturing environment

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Authors: Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Constantine Mbajiorgu

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Vegetation has a marked effect on runoff and has become an important component in hydrologic model. The watershed Resources Management (WRM) model, a process-based, continuous, distributed parameter simulation model developed for hydrologic and soil erosion studies at the watershed scale lack a crop growth component. As such, this model assumes a constant parameter values for vegetation and hydraulic parameters throughout the duration of hydrologic simulation. Our approach is to develop a crop growth algorithm based on the original plant growth model used in the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate Model (EPIC) model. This paper describes the development of a single crop growth model which has the capability of simulating all crops using unique parameter values for each crop. Simulated crop growth processes will reflect the vegetative seasonality of the natural watershed system. An existing model was employed for evaluating vegetative resistance by hydraulic and vegetative parameters incorporated into the WRM model. The improved WRM model will have the ability to evaluate the seasonal variation of the vegetative roughness coefficient with depth of flow and further enhance the hydrologic model’s capability for accurate hydrologic studies

Keywords: crop yield, roughness coefficient, PAR, WRM model

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Authors: Magdeline Pakeng Mohlala, R. L. Molatudi, M. A. Mofokeng

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Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp) is an important annual leguminous crop in semi-arid and tropics. Most of cowpea grain production in South Africa is mainly used for domestic consumption, as seed planting and little or none gets to be used in industrial processing; thus, there is a need to expand the utilization of cowpea through industrial processing. Agronomic traits contribute to the understanding of the association between yield and its component traits to facilitate effective selection for yield improvement. The aim of this study was to evaluate cowpea genotypes using grain yield and canning quality traits. The field experiment was conducted in two locations in Limpopo Province, namely Syferkuil Agricultural Experimental farm and Ga-Molepo village during 2017/2018 growing season and canning took place at ARC-Grain Crops Potchefstroom. The experiment comprised of 100 cowpea genotypes laid out in a Randomized Complete Block Designs (RCBD). The grain yield, yield components, and canning quality traits were analysed using Genstat software. About 62 genotypes were suitable for canning, 38 were not due to their seed coat texture, and water uptake was less than 80% resulting in too soft (mushy) seeds. Grain yield for RV115, 99k-494-6, ITOOK1263, RV111, RV353 and 53 other genotypes recorded high positive association with number of branches, pods per plant, and number of seeds per pod, unshelled weight and shelled weight for Syferkuil than at Ga-Molepo are therefore recommended for canning quality.

Keywords: agronomic traits, canning quality, genotypes, yield

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Authors: Ishit Sheth, Chandrasekhar Jinendran, Chinmaya Ranjan Sahu

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A fourteen degree of freedom (DOF) ride and handling control mathematical model is developed for a car using generalized boltzmann hamel equation which will create a basis for design of ride and handling controller. Mathematical model developed yield equations of motion for non-holonomic constrained systems in quasi-coordinates. The governing differential equation developed integrates ride and handling control of car. Model-based systems engineering approach is implemented for simulation using matlab/simulink, vehicle’s response in different DOF is examined and later validated using commercial software (ADAMS). This manuscript involves detailed derivation of full car vehicle model which provides response in longitudinal, lateral and yaw motion to demonstrate the advantages of the developed model over the existing dynamic model. The dynamic behaviour of the developed ride and handling model is simulated for different road conditions.

Keywords: Full Vehicle Model, MBSE, Non Holonomic Constraints, Boltzmann Hamel Equation

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Authors: Aminah Muchdar, Nuraeni, Eddy

Abstract:

The aims of the research are: (1) to verify the cropsyst plant model of experimental data in the field of soybean plants and (2) to predict planting time and potential yield soybean plant with the use of cropsyst model. This research is divided into several stages: (1) first calibration stage which conducted in the field from June until September 2015.(2) application models stage, where the data obtained from calibration in the field will be included in cropsyst models. The required data models are climate data, ground data/soil data,also crop genetic data. The relationship between the obtained result in field with simulation cropsyst model indicated by Efficiency Index (EF) which the value is 0,939.That is showing that cropsyst model is well used. From the calculation result RRMSE which the value is 1,922%.That is showing that comparative fault prediction results from simulation with result obtained in the field is 1,92%. The conclusion has obtained that the prediction of soybean planting time cropsyst based models that have been made valid for use. and the appropriate planting time for planting soybeans mainly on rain-fed land is at the end of the rainy season, in which the above study first planting time (June 2, 2015) which gives the highest production, because at that time there was still some rain. Tanggamus varieties more resistant to slow planting time cause the percentage decrease in the yield of each decade is lower than the average of all varieties.

Keywords: soybean, Cropsyst, calibration, efficiency Index, RRMSE

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: S. Chuenchooklin, S. Taweepong, U. Pangnakorn

Abstract:

This research was conducted in the Mae Sot Watershed whereas located in the Moei River Basin at the Upper Salween River Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. The Mae Sot Municipality is the largest urbanized in Tak Province and situated in the midstream of the Mae Sot Watershed. It usually faces flash flood problem after heavy rain due to poor flood management has been reported since economic rapidly bloom up in recently years. Its catchment can be classified as ungauged basin with lack of rainfall data and no any stream gaging station was reported. It was attached by most severely flood event in 2013 as the worst studied case for those all communities in this municipality. Moreover, other problems are also faced in this watershed such shortage water supply for domestic consumption and agriculture utilizations including deterioration of water quality and landslide as well. The research aimed to increase capability building and strengthening the participation of those local community leaders and related agencies to conduct better water management in urban area was started by mean of the data collection and illustration of appropriated application of some short period rainfall forecasting model as the aim for better flood relief plan and management through the hydrologic model system and river analysis system programs. The authors intended to apply the global rainfall data via the integrated data viewer (IDV) program from the Unidata with the aim for rainfall forecasting in short period of 7 - 10 days in advance during rainy season instead of real time record. The IDV product can be present in advance period of rainfall with time step of 3 - 6 hours was introduced to the communities. The result can be used to input to either the hydrologic modeling system model (HEC-HMS) or the soil water assessment tool model (SWAT) for synthesizing flood hydrographs and use for flood forecasting as well. The authors applied the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) to present flood flow behaviors in the reach of the Mae Sot stream via the downtown of the Mae Sot City as flood extents as water surface level at every cross-sectional profiles of the stream. Both models of HMS and RAS were tested in 2013 with observed rainfall and inflow-outflow data from the Mae Sot Dam. The result of HMS showed fit to the observed data at dam and applied at upstream boundary discharge to RAS in order to simulate flood extents and tested in the field, and the result found satisfied. The result of IDV’s rainfall forecast data was compared to observed data and found fair. However, it is an appropriate tool to use in the ungauged catchment to use with flood hydrograph and river analysis models for future efficient flood relief plan and management.

Keywords: global rainfall, flood forecast, hydrologic modeling system, river analysis system

Procedia PDF Downloads 322