Search results for: weed infestation forecast

Authors: Tamer M. Shehata, Heba S. Elsewedy, Mashel Al Dosary, Alaa Elshehry, Mohamed A. Khedr, Maged E. Mohamed

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Objective: 2,4-Dichlorophenoxy acetic acid (2,4-D) is a well-known herbicide widely used as a weed killer. Recently, 2,4-D was rediscovered as a new anti-inflammatory agent through in silico as well as in-vivo experiments. However, poor solubility of 2,4-D could represent a problems during pharmaceutical development in addition to lower bioavailability. Solid dispersion (SD) refers to a group of solid products consisting of at least two different components, usually a hydrophobic drug and hydrophilic matrix. It is well known technique for enhancing drug solubility. Therefore, selecting SD as a tool for enhancing 2,4-D could be of great interest to the formulator. Method: In our project, several polymers were investigated (such as PEG, HPMC, citric acid and others) in addition to drug polymer ratios and its effect on solubility. Evaluation of drug polymer interaction was investigated through both Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) and Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC). Finally, in-vivo evaluation was performed for the best selected preparation through inflammatory response of rat induce hind paw. Results: Results indicated that, citric acid 2,4-D and in ratio of 0.75 : 1 showed modified the dissolution profile of the drug. The FTIR resltes indicated no significant chemical interaction, however DSC showed shifting of the drug melting point. Finally, Carragenan induced rat hind paw edema showed significant reduction of the drug solid dispersion in comparison to the pure drug, indicating rapid and complete absorption of the drug in solid dispersion form. Conclusion: Solid dispersion technology can be utilized efficiently to enhance the solubility of 2,4-D.

Keywords: solid dispersion, 2, 4-D solubility, carragenan induced edema

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Authors: Piotr A. Kowalski, Kasper Sapala, Wiktor Warchalowski

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PM10 is a suspended dust that primarily has a negative effect on the respiratory system. PM10 is responsible for attacks of coughing and wheezing, asthma or acute, violent bronchitis. Indirectly, PM10 also negatively affects the rest of the body, including increasing the risk of heart attack and stroke. Unfortunately, Poland is a country that cannot boast of good air quality, in particular, due to large PM concentration levels. Therefore, based on the dense network of Airly sensors, it was decided to deal with the problem of prediction of suspended particulate matter concentration. Due to the very complicated nature of this issue, the Machine Learning approach was used. For this purpose, Convolution Neural Network (CNN) neural networks have been adopted, these currently being the leading information processing methods in the field of computational intelligence. The aim of this research is to show the influence of particular CNN network parameters on the quality of the obtained forecast. The forecast itself is made on the basis of parameters measured by Airly sensors and is carried out for the subsequent day, hour after hour. The evaluation of learning process for the investigated models was mostly based upon the mean square error criterion; however, during the model validation, a number of other methods of quantitative evaluation were taken into account. The presented model of pollution prediction has been verified by way of real weather and air pollution data taken from the Airly sensor network. The dense and distributed network of Airly measurement devices enables access to current and archival data on air pollution, temperature, suspended particulate matter PM1.0, PM2.5, and PM10, CAQI levels, as well as atmospheric pressure and air humidity. In this investigation, PM2.5, and PM10, temperature and wind information, as well as external forecasts of temperature and wind for next 24h served as inputted data. Due to the specificity of the CNN type network, this data is transformed into tensors and then processed. This network consists of an input layer, an output layer, and many hidden layers. In the hidden layers, convolutional and pooling operations are performed. The output of this system is a vector containing 24 elements that contain prediction of PM10 concentration for the upcoming 24 hour period. Over 1000 models based on CNN methodology were tested during the study. During the research, several were selected out that give the best results, and then a comparison was made with the other models based on linear regression. The numerical tests carried out fully confirmed the positive properties of the presented method. These were carried out using real ‘big’ data. Models based on the CNN technique allow prediction of PM10 dust concentration with a much smaller mean square error than currently used methods based on linear regression. What's more, the use of neural networks increased Pearson's correlation coefficient (R²) by about 5 percent compared to the linear model. During the simulation, the R² coefficient was 0.92, 0.76, 0.75, 0.73, and 0.73 for 1st, 6th, 12th, 18th, and 24th hour of prediction respectively.

Keywords: air pollution prediction (forecasting), machine learning, regression task, convolution neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: Muhammad Saeed, Nazeer Ahmed, Mukhtar Alam, Fazli Subhan, Muhammad Adnan, Fazli Wahid, Hidayat Ullah, Rafiullah

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The present experiment evaluated different synthetic insecticides against Jassid (Amrasca devastations) on pea crop at Agriculture Research Institute Tarnab, Peshawar Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The field was prepared to cultivate okra crop in Randomized Complete Block (RCB) Design having six treatments with four replications. Plant to plant and row to row distance was kept at 15 cm and 30 cm, respectively. Pre and post spray data were recorded randomly from the top, middle and bottom leaves of five selected plants. Five synthetic insecticides, namely Confidor (Proponil), a neonicotinoid insecticide, Chlorpyrifos (chlorinated organophosphate (OP) insecticide), Lazer (dinitroaniline) (Pendimethaline), Imidacloprid (neonicotinoids insecticide) and Thiodan (Endosulfan, organochlorine insecticide), were used against infestation of aphids, pea pod borer, stem fly, leaf minor and pea weevil. Each synthetic insecticide showed significantly more effectiveness than control (untreated plots) but was non-significant among each other. The lowest population density was recorded in the plot treated with synthetic insecticide i.e. Confidor (0.6175 liter.ha-1) (4.24 aphids plant⁻¹) which is followed by Imidacloprid (0.6175 liter.ha⁻¹) (4.64 pea pod borer plant⁻¹), Thiodan (1.729 liter.ha⁻¹) (4.78 leaf minor plant⁻¹), Lazer (2.47 liter.ha-1) (4.91 pea weevil plant⁻¹), Chlorpyrifos (1.86 liter.ha⁻¹) (5.11 stem fly plant⁻¹), respectively while the highest population was recorded from the control plot. It is concluded from the data that the residual effect decreases with time after the application of spray, which may be less dangerous to the environment and human beings and can effectively manage this dread.

Keywords: okra crop, jassids, Confidor, imidacloprid, chlorpyrifos, laser, Thiodan

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Victoria Y. Garnova, Vladimir G. Merzlikin, Sergey V. Khudyakov, Aleksandr A. Gajour, Andrei P. Garnov

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This paper refers to the analysis of the characteristics of industrial and lifestyle facilities heat- energy objects as a part of the thermal envelope of Earth's surface for inclusion in any database of economic forecasting. The idealized model of the Earth's surface is discussed. This model gives the opportunity to obtain the energy equivalent for each element of terrain and world ocean. Energy efficiency criterion of comfortable human existence is introduced. Dynamics of changes of this criterion offers the possibility to simulate the possible technogenic catastrophes with a spontaneous industrial development of the certain Earth areas. Calculated model with the confirmed forecast of the Gulf Stream freezing in the Polar Regions in 2011 due to the heat-energy balance disturbance for the oceanic subsurface oil polluted layer is given. Two opposing trends of human development under the limited and unlimited amount of heat-energy resources are analyzed.

Keywords: Earth's surface, heat-energy consumption, energy criteria, technogenic catastrophes

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Süleyman Günes

Abstract:

The crucial effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have on social and economic systems in Turkey as well as all over the world. It has impacted logistic providers and worldwide supply chains. Unexpected risks played a central role in creating vulnerabilities for logistics service operations during the pandemic terms. This study aims to research and design qualitative and quantitive contributions to logistic services. The COVID-19 pandemic brought unavoidable risks to the logistics industry in Turkey. The Logistic Service Providers (LSPs) have learned how to ensure uncertainties and risks triggered by main and adverse effects. The risks that LSPs encounter during the COVID-19 pandemic have been investigated and unveiled, and identified uncertainties and risks. The cause-effect structures were displayed by the qualitative and quantitive studies. The results suggest that supply chains and demand changes triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic while it influenced financial failure and forecast horizon with operational performances.

Keywords: logistic service providers, COVID-19, development, financial failure

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Alina Goldberg Cavalleri, Sara Franco Ortega, Nawaporn Onkokesung, Richard Dale, Melissa Brazier-Hicks, Robert Edwards

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Non-target site based resistance (NTSR) to herbicides in weeds is a polygenic trait associated with the upregulation of proteins involved in xenobiotic detoxification and translocation we have termed the xenome. Among the xenome proteins, ABC transporters play a key role in enhancing herbicide metabolism by effluxing conjugated xenobiotics from the cytoplasm into the vacuole. The importance of ABC transporters is emphasized by the fact that they often contribute to multidrug resistance in human cells and antibiotic resistance in bacteria. They also play a key role in insecticide resistance in major vectors of human diseases and crop pests. By surveying available databases, transcripts encoding ABCs have been identified as being enhanced in populations exhibiting NTSR in several weed species. Based on a transcriptomics data in black grass (Alopecurus myosuroides, Am), we have identified three proteins from the ABC-C subfamily that are upregulated in NTSR populations. ABC-C transporters are poorly characterized proteins in plants, but in Arabidopsis localize to the vacuolar membrane and have functional roles in transporting glutathionylated (GSH)-xenobiotic conjugates. We found that the up-regulation of AmABCs strongly correlates with the up-regulation of a glutathione transferase termed AmGSTU2, which can conjugate GSH to herbicides. The expression profile of the ABC transcripts was profiled in populations of black grass showing different degree of resistance to herbicides. This, together with a phylogenetic analysis, revealed that AmABCs cluster in different groups which might indicate different substrate and roles in the herbicide resistance phenotype in the different populations

Keywords: black grass, herbicide, resistance, transporters

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Juliana Amaka Ugwu

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Trapping efficiency of methyl eugenol and three locally made food-based lures were evaluated in three locations for trapping of B. dorsalis on mango homestead trees in Ibadan South west Nigeria. The treatments were methyl eugenol, brewery waste, pineapple juice, orange juice, and control (water). The experiment was laid in a Complete Randomized Block Design (CRBD) and replicated three times in each location. Data collected were subjected to analysis of variance and significant means were separated by Turkey’s test. The results showed that B. dorsalis was recorded in all locations of study. Methyl eugenol significantly (P < 0.05) trapped higher population of B. dorsalis in all the study area. The population density of B. dorsalis was highest during the ripening period of mango in all locations. The percentage trapped flies after 7 weeks were 77.85%-82.38% (methyl eugenol), 7.29%-8.64% (pineapple juice), 5.62-7.62% (brewery waste), 4.41%-5.95% (orange juice), and 0.24-0.47% (control). There were no significance differences (p > 0.05) on the population of B. dorsalis trapped in all locations. Similarly, there were no significant differences (p > 0.05) on the population of flies trapped among the food attractants. However, the three food attractants significantly (p < 0.05) trapped higher flies than control. Methyl eugenol trapped only male flies while brewery waste and other food based attractants trapped both male and female flies. The food baits tested were promising attractants for trapping B. dorsalis on mango homestead tress, hence increased dosage could be considered for monitoring and mass trapping as management strategies against fruit fly infestation.

Keywords: attractants, trapping, mango, Bactrocera dorsalis

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Authors: K. Mohammed, M. Agarwal, J. Mewman, Y. Ren

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An optimum technic has been developed for extracting volatile organic compounds which contribute to the aroma of lime fruit (Citrus aurantifolia). The volatile organic compounds of healthy and infested lime fruit with California red scale Aonidiella aurantii were characterized using headspace solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) combined with gas chromatography (GC) coupled flame ionization detection (FID) and gas chromatography with mass spectrometry (GC-MS) as a very simple, efficient and nondestructive extraction method. A three-phase 50/30 μm PDV/DVB/CAR fibre was used for the extraction process. The optimal sealing and fibre exposure time for volatiles reaching equilibrium from whole lime fruit in the headspace of the chamber was 16 and 4 hours respectively. 5 min was selected as desorption time of the three-phase fibre. Herbivorous activity induces indirect plant defenses, as the emission of herbivorous-induced plant volatiles (HIPVs), which could be used by natural enemies for host location. GC-MS analysis showed qualitative differences among volatiles emitted by infested and healthy lime fruit. The GC-MS analysis allowed the initial identification of 18 compounds, with similarities higher than 85%, in accordance with the NIST mass spectral library. One of these were increased by A. aurantii infestation, D-limonene, and three were decreased, Undecane, α-Farnesene and 7-epi-α-selinene. From an applied point of view, the application of the above-mentioned VOCs may help boost the efficiency of biocontrol programs and natural enemies’ production techniques.

Keywords: lime fruit, Citrus aurantifolia, California red scale, Aonidiella aurantii, VOCs, HS-SPME/GC-FID-MS

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Authors: Lin Wenli, Fu Linchun, Zhang Yi, Wu Ming

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To meet the demands of long-life and high-intelligence for satellites, the electrical power system should be provided with self-health condition evaluation capability. Any over-stress events in operations should be recorded. Based on Linear stresses accumulation damage theory, accumulative damage analysis was performed on thermal-mechanical-electrical united stresses for three components including the solar array, the batteries and the power conditioning unit. Then an overall health percentage evaluation model for satellite electrical power system was built. To obtain the accurate quantity for system health percentage, an automatic feedback closed-loop correction method for all coefficients in the evaluation model was present. The evaluation outputs could be referred as taking earlier fault-forecast and interventions for Ground Control Center or Satellites self.

Keywords: satellite electrical power system, health percentage, linear stresses accumulation damage, evaluation model

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Authors: Ebrahim Izadi-Darbandi

Abstract:

In order to investigation the effects of sowing methods, nitrogen and phosphorus application methods in wheat weeds management, an experiment was performed as split plot, based on randomized completely block design with three replications at Research Farm, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, in 2010. Treatments included, wheat sowing methods (single-row with 30 cm distance and twine row on 50 cm width ridges) as main plots and nitrogen and phosphorus application methods (Broadcast and Band) as sub plots. In this experiment, phosphorus and nitrogen sources for fertilization were super phosphate triple (150 kg ha-1) applied before wheat sowing and incorporated with soil and urea (200 kg ha-1) respectively, applied in 2 phases (pre-plant 50%) and near wheat shooting (50%). Results showed that the effect of fertilizers application methods and wheat sowing methods were significant (p≤0.01) on wheat yield increasing and reducing weed-wheat competition. Wheat twine row sowing method, reduced weeds biomass for 25% compared wheat single-row sowing method and increased wheat seed yield and biomass for 60% and 30% respectively. Phosphorus and nitrogen band application reduced weeds biomass for 46% and 53% respectively and increased wheat seed yield for 22% and 33% compared to their broadcast application. The effects of wheat sowing method plus phosphorus and nitrogen application methods interactions, showed that the fertilizers band application and wheat twine-row sowing method were the best methods in wheat yield improvement and reducing wheat-weeds interaction. These results shows that modifying of fertilization methods and wheat sowing method can have important role in fertilizers use efficiency and improving of weeds managements.

Keywords: competition, wheat yield, fertilizer management, biomass

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Authors: Ya-Li Tsai

Abstract:

Nitrogen is a vital element crucial for crop growth, significantly influencing crop yield. In rice cultivation, farmers often apply substantial nitrogen fertilizer to maximize yields. However, excessive nitrogen application increases the risk of lodging and pest infestation, leading to yield losses. Additionally, conventional flooded irrigation methods consume significant water resources, necessitating precise agricultural and intelligent water management systems. In this study, it leveraged physiological data and field images captured by unmanned aerial vehicles, considering fertilizer treatment and irrigation as key factors. Statistical models incorporating rice physiological data, yield, and vegetation indices from image data were developed. Missing physiological data were addressed using multiple imputation and regression methods, and regression models were established using principal component analysis and stepwise regression. Target nitrogen accumulation at key growth stages was identified to optimize fertilizer application, with the difference between actual and target nitrogen accumulation guiding recommendations for ear dressing dosage. Field experiments conducted in 2022 validated the recommended ear dressing dosage, demonstrating no significant difference in final yield compared to traditional fertilizer levels under alternate wetting and drying irrigation. These findings highlight the efficacy of applying recommended dosages based on fertilizer decision models, offering the potential for reduced fertilizer use while maintaining yield in rice cultivation.

Keywords: intelligent fertilizer management, nitrogen top and ear dressing fertilizer, rice, yield optimization

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Authors: Amro Issam Hamed Attia Ramadan, Marco Zappatore, Pasquale Balena, Antonella Longo

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Considering the energetic crisis that is hitting Europe, it becomes more and more necessary to change the energy policies to depend less on fossil fuels and replace them with energy from renewable sources. This has triggered the urge to use clean energy not only to satisfy energy needs and fulfill the required consumption but also to decrease the danger of climatic changes due to harmful emissions. Many countries have already started creating energetic communities based on renewable energy sources. The first step to understanding energy needs in any place is to perfectly know the consumption. In this work, we aim to estimate electricity consumption for a municipality that makes up part of a rural area located in southern Italy using forecast models that allow for the estimation of electricity consumption for the next ten years, and we then apply the same model to the province where the municipality is located and estimate the future consumption for the same period to examine whether it is possible to start from the municipality level to reach the province level when creating energy communities.

Keywords: ARIMA, electricity consumption, forecasting models, time series

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Authors: András Medve, Katalin Szabad, István Patkó

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According to the International Energy Association the previous principles of the energy sector should be reassessed, in which renewable energy sources have a significant role. We might witness the exchange of roles of countries from importer to exporter, which look for the main resources of market needs. According to the World Energy Outlook 2013, the duration of high oil prices is exceptionally long in the history of the energy market. Forecasts also point at the expected great differences between the regional prices of gas and electric energy. The energy need of the world will grow by its third. two thirds of which will appear in China, India, and South-East Asia, while only 4 per cent of which will be related to OECD countries. Current trends also forecast the growth of the price of energy sources and the emission of glasshouse gases. As a reflection of these forecasts alternative energy sources will gain value, of which geothermic energy is one of the cheapest and most economical. Hungary possesses outstanding resources of geothermic energy. The aim of the study is to research the environmental effects of geothermic energy and the opportunities of its exploitation in Hungary, related to „Horizon 2020” project.

Keywords: sustainable energy, renewable energy, development of geothermic energy in Hungary

Procedia PDF Downloads 571

Authors: H. J. Joshi, Satyajeet Patil, Parth Dandavate, Mihir Kulkarni, Harshita Agrawal

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As the world looks towards a sustainable future, electric vehicles have become increasingly popular. Millions worldwide are looking to switch to Electric cars over the previously favored combustion engine-powered cars. This demand has seen an increase in Electric Vehicle Charging Stations. The big challenge is that the randomness of electrical energy makes it tough for these charging stations to provide an adequate amount of energy over a specific amount of time. Thus, it has become increasingly crucial to model these patterns and forecast the energy needs of power stations. This paper aims to analyze how different machine learning models perform on Electric Vehicle charging time-series data. The data set consists of authentic Electric Vehicle Data from the Netherlands. It has an overview of ten thousand transactions from public stations operated by EVnetNL.

Keywords: forecasting, smart grid, electric vehicle load forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Tawanda Mushiri, Charles Mbohwa

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The performance of door assembly is very significant for the vehicle design. In the present paper, the finite element method is used in the development processes of the door assembly. The stiffness, strength, modal characteristic, and anti-extrusion of a newly developed passenger vehicle door assembly are calculated and evaluated by several finite element analysis commercial software. The structural problems discovered by FE analysis have been modified and finally achieved the expected door structure performance target of this new vehicle. The issue in focus is to predict the performance of the door assembly by powerful finite element analysis software, and optimize the structure to meet the design targets. It is observed that this method can be used to forecast the performance of vehicle door efficiently when it’s designed. In order to reduce lead time and cost in the product development of vehicles more development will be made virtually.

Keywords: vehicle door, structure, strength, stiffness, modal characteristic, anti-extrusion, Finite Element Method

Procedia PDF Downloads 395

Authors: Chen-Yin Kuo, Yung-Hsin Lee

Abstract:

Previous studies applying residual income valuation (RIV) model generally use panel data and single-equation model to forecast stock prices. Unlike these, this paper uses Taiwan longitudinal data to estimate multi-equation time-series models such as Vector Autoregressive (VAR), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and conduct out-of-sample forecasting. Further, this work assesses their forecasting performance by two instruments. In favor of extant research, the major finding shows that VECM outperforms other three models in forecasting for three stock sectors over entire horizons. It implies that an error correction term containing long-run information contributes to improve forecasting accuracy. Moreover, the pattern of composite shows that at longer horizon, VECM produces the greater reduction in errors, and performs substantially better than VAR.

Keywords: residual income valuation model, vector error correction model, out of sample forecasting, forecasting accuracy

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: K. Assis, K. P. Chong, A. S. Idris, C. M. Ho

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Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.

Keywords: ganoderma, oil palm, regression model, yield loss, economic loss

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Aleksandr A. Gajour, Vladimir G. Merzlikin, Vladimir I. Veselov

Abstract:

This paper refers to the analysis of the characteristics of industrial and lifestyle facilities heat- energy objects as a part of the thermal envelope of Earth's surface for inclusion in any database of economic forecasting. The idealized model of the Earth's surface is discussed. This model gives the opportunity to obtain the energy equivalent for each element of terrain and world ocean. Energy efficiency criterion of comfortable human existence is introduced. Dynamics of changes of this criterion offers the possibility to simulate the possible technogenic catastrophes with the spontaneous industrial development of the certain Earth areas. Calculated model with the confirmed forecast of the Gulf Stream freezing in the polar regions in 2011 due to the heat-energy balance disturbance for the oceanic subsurface oil polluted layer is given. Two opposing trends of human development under limited and unlimited amount of heat-energy resources are analyzed.

Keywords: Earth's surface, heat-energy consumption, energy criteria, technogenic catastrophes

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: P. Kanakasabapathy, S. Radhika

Abstract:

In the competitive electricity market environment, the profit of the pumped-storage plant in the energy market can be maximized by operating it as a generator, when market clearing price is high and as a pump, to pump water from lower reservoir to upper reservoir, when the price is low. An optimal self-scheduling plan has been developed for a pumped-storage plant, carried out on weekly basis in order to maximize the profit of the plant, keeping into account of all the major uncertainties such as the sudden ancillary service delivery request and the price forecasting errors. For a pumped storage power plant to operate in a real time market successive self-scheduling has to be done by considering the forecast of the day-ahead market and the modified reservoir storage due to the ancillary service request of the previous day. Sliding Window Technique has been used for successive self-scheduling to ensure profit for the plant.

Keywords: ancillary services, BPSO, power system economics, self-scheduling, sliding window technique

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Authors: A. Hakimiyan, H. Namazi

Abstract:

Human behavior is defined as a range of behaviors exhibited by humans who are influenced by different internal or external sources. Human behavior is the subject of much research in different areas of psychology and neuroscience. Despite some advances in studies related to forecasting of human behavior, there are not many researches which consider the effect of the time delay between the presence of stimulus and the related human response. Analysis of EEG signal as a fractal time series is one of the major tools for studying the human behavior. In the other words, the human brain activity is reflected in his EEG signal. Artificial Neural Network has been proved useful in forecasting of different systems’ behavior especially in engineering areas. In this research, a time delay neural network is trained and tested in order to forecast the human EEG signal and subsequently human behavior. This neural network, by introducing a time delay, takes care of the lagging time between the occurrence of the stimulus and the rise of the subsequent action potential. The results of this study are useful not only for the fundamental understanding of human behavior forecasting, but shall be very useful in different areas of brain research such as seizure prediction.

Keywords: human behavior, EEG signal, time delay neural network, prediction, lagging time

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Authors: F. Massri, M. Shkarneh, B. Almassri

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Water scarcity and increasing water demand especially for residential use are major challenges facing Palestine. The need to accurately forecast water consumption is useful for the planning and management of this natural resource. The main objective of this paper is to (i) study the major factors influencing the water consumption in Palestine, (ii) understand the general pattern of Household water consumption, (iii) assess the possible changes in household water consumption and suggest appropriate remedies and (iv) develop prediction model based on the Artificial Neural Network to the water consumption in Palestinian cities. The paper is organized in four parts. The first part includes literature review of household water consumption studies. The second part concerns data collection methodology, conceptual frame work for the household water consumption surveys, survey descriptions and data processing methods. The third part presents descriptive statistics, multiple regression and analysis of the water consumption in the two Palestinian cities. The final part develops the use of Artificial Neural Network for modeling the water consumption in Palestinian cities.

Keywords: water management, demand forecasting, consumption, ANN, Ramallah

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Abiodun Ayodele Sanyaolu

Abstract:

The research was carried out to investigate the time series analysis on quarterly production of fruit juice at the National Horticultural Research Institute Ibadan from 2010 to 2018. Documentary method of data collection was used, and the method of least square and moving average were used in the analysis. From the calculation and the graph, it was glaring that there was increase, decrease, and uniform movements in both the graph of the original data and the tabulated quarter values of the original data. Time series analysis was used to detect the trend in the highest number of fruit juice and it appears to be good over a period of time and the methods used to forecast are additive and multiplicative models. Since it was observed that the production of fruit juice is usually high in January of every year, it is strongly advised that National Horticultural Research Institute should make more provision for fruit juice storage outside this period of the year.

Keywords: fruit juice, least square, multiplicative models, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

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This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: electricity price, k-factor GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, forecasting

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Authors: Emmanuel Olugbenga Fakoya

Abstract:

The study examined the perceived impact of climate change on the livelihood of arable crop farmers in Ipokia Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria. Multistage sampling technique was used to select 80 arable crop farmers in the study area. Data collected were analyzed using percentages, frequencies and Chi square analysis. The result showed that 63.8 percent of the respondents were male while 55.0 percent were married. Less than half (30.0 percent) of the respondents were between the age bracket of 41-50 years and 50.0 percent had 6-10 household size. Furthermore, majority (40.0 percent) of the arable crop farmers farmed on an inherited land and 51.3 percent had 2-3 hectares of land. Majority (38.8 percent) of the farmers intercrop maize with cassava and maize with yam. Various strategies adapted to reduce the effect of climate change on their crop and livelihood include: crop rotation (53.8 percent), planting of leguminous crop (35.0 percent), application of organic fertilizers (45.0 percent), mulching (56.3 percent) and by planting drought resistance crops (46.5 percent). Reported among the effects of climate change on crop and farmers’ livelihood were: discoloration of crop leave (63.8 percent), increase infestation of pests and diseases (58.8 percent) and reduction of crop yield (60.0 percent). Chi- square analysis showed significant relationship between impact of climate change on arable crop production and thus famers’ livelihood. It was concluded from the study that climate change is an impinging factor that seriously affect arable crop production and hence farmers’ livelihood despite coping strategies to minimize its effect. It was however recommended that Agricultural policies and practices that could minimize or eliminate its effect should be seriously enacted to boost production and increase farmers’ livelihood.

Keywords: agricultural extension, extension agent, private sector, perception

Procedia PDF Downloads 418

Authors: Arslan Shehroz, Muhammad Amjad Ali, Amjad Abbas, Imran Ramzan, Muhammad Zunair Latif

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Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is the 4th most important food crop of the world after wheat, rice and maize. It is the staple food in many European countries. Being rich in starch (one of the main three food ingredients) and having the highest productivity per unit area, has great potential to address the challenge of the food security. Processed potato is also used as chips and crisps etc as ‘fast food’. There are many biotic and abiotic factors which check the production of potato and become hurdle in achievement production potential of potato. 20 new varieties along with two checks were evaluated. Plant to plant and row to row distances were maintained as 20 cm and 75 cm, respectively. The trial was conducted according to the randomized complete block design with three replications. Normal agronomic and plant protection measures were carried out in the crop. It is revealed from the experiment that exotic variety 171 gave the highest yield of 35.5 t/ha followed by Masai with 31.0 t/ha tuber yield. The check variety Simply Red 24.2 t/ha yield, while the lowest tuber yield (1.5 t/ha) was produced by the exotic variety KWS-06-125. The maximum emergence was shown by the Variety Red Sun (89.7 %). The lowest emergence was shown by the variety Camel (71.7%). Regarding tuber grades, it was noted that the maximum Ration size tubers were produced by the exotic variety Compass (3.7%), whereas 11 varieties did not produce ration size tubers at all. The variety Red Sun produced lowest percentage of small size tubers (12.7%) whereas maximum small size tubers (93.0%) were produced by the variety Jitka. Regarding disease infestation, it was noted that the maximum scab incidence (4.0%) was recorded on the variety Masai, maximum rhizoctonia attack (60.0%) was recorded on the variety Camel and maximum tuber cracking (0.7%) was noted on the variety Vendulla.

Keywords: check variety, potato, potential and yield, trial

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Nattapong Techarattanased

Abstract:

This survey research aimed to study the influence of attitude in services, product, and marketing mix affected intention to revisit in boutique hotel of foreign travelers in Bangkok, Thailand. The total 400 sets of closed-ended questionnaires were utilized for conducting data from foreign tourists who come to boutique hotel and can communicate in English. The descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze data. The research found that tourists’ attitude towards the service of check in and check out process, food and beverage, guest room and other facilities affected in opportunity of revisiting, recommending to others and possibility of revisiting in the future at 0.05 statistically significant levels. Tourists’ attitude towards service and marketing mix in term of people, physical evidence, price, process and channel of distribution could forecast intention to revisit in term of recommending to others and intention to revisit in the future at 0.05 statistically significant levels.

Keywords: boutique hotel, foreign tourists, intention to revisit, service marketing mix

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

Abstract:

Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. However, it is difficult to find analytical solution of these complex non-linear equations. Hence, verification of the numerical model should be carried out against field data and numerical predictions. This paper presents the verification of developed finite element model applying for unsteady flow in the open channels. The results of a proposed model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29 km at both sites (15 km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400 km downstream from Sukkur barrage, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for predicting and issuing flood warnings about flood hazardous in advance.

Keywords: finite element method, Preissmann scheme, HEC-RAS, flood forecasting, Indus river

Procedia PDF Downloads 474

Authors: Abdullah Eqal Al Mazrooei

Abstract:

In this paper, a nonlinear dynamical system is presented. This system is a bilinear class. The bilinear systems are very important kind of nonlinear systems because they have many applications in real life. They are used in biology, chemistry, manufacturing, engineering, and economics where linear models are ineffective or inadequate. They have also been recently used to analyze and forecast weather conditions. Bilinear systems have three advantages: First, they define many problems which have a great applied importance. Second, they give us approximations to nonlinear systems. Thirdly, they have a rich geometric and algebraic structures, which promises to be a fruitful field of research for scientists and applications. The type of nonlinearity that is treated and analyzed consists of bilinear interaction between the states vectors and the system input. By using some properties of the tensor product, these systems can be transformed to linear systems. But, here we discuss the nonlinearity when the state vector is multiplied by itself. So, this model will be able to handle evolutions according to the Lotka-Volterra models or the Lorenz weather models, thus enabling a wider and more flexible application of such models. Here we apply by using an estimator to estimate temperatures. The results prove the efficiency of the proposed system.

Keywords: Lorenz models, nonlinear systems, nonlinear estimator, state-space model

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: X. Lu, T. Lu, S. Javadi

Abstract:

A simple dynamic approach is presented for analyzing thermal and moisture dynamics of buildings, which is of particular relevance to understanding climate change impacts on buildings, including assessment of risks and applications of resilience strategies. With the goal to demonstrate the proposed modeling methodology, to verify the model, and to show that wooden materials provide a mechanism that can facilitate the reduction of moisture risks and be more resilient to global warming, a wooden church equipped with high precision measurement systems was taken as a test building for full-scale time-series measurements. Sensitivity analyses indicate a high degree of accuracy in the model prediction regarding the indoor environment. The model is then applied to a future projection of climate indoors aiming to identify significant environmental factors, the changing temperature and humidity, and effective response to the climate change impacts. The paper suggests that wooden building materials offer an effective and resilient response to anticipated future climate changes.

Keywords: dynamic model, forecast, climate change impact, wooden structure, buildings

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Halimatu S. Abdullahi, Ray E. Sheriff, Fatima Mahieddine

Abstract:

Agriculture is essential to the continuous existence of human life as they directly depend on it for the production of food. The exponential rise in population calls for a rapid increase in food with the application of technology to reduce the laborious work and maximize production. Technology can aid/improve agriculture in several ways through pre-planning and post-harvest by the use of computer vision technology through image processing to determine the soil nutrient composition, right amount, right time, right place application of farm input resources like fertilizers, herbicides, water, weed detection, early detection of pest and diseases etc. This is precision agriculture which is thought to be solution required to achieve our goals. There has been significant improvement in the area of image processing and data processing which has being a major challenge. A database of images is collected through remote sensing, analyzed and a model is developed to determine the right treatment plans for different crop types and different regions. Features of images from vegetations need to be extracted, classified, segmented and finally fed into the model. Different techniques have been applied to the processes from the use of neural network, support vector machine, fuzzy logic approach and recently, the most effective approach generating excellent results using the deep learning approach of convolution neural network for image classifications. Deep Convolution neural network is used to determine soil nutrients required in a plantation for maximum production. The experimental results on the developed model yielded results with an average accuracy of 99.58%.

Keywords: convolution, feature extraction, image analysis, validation, precision agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 291