Search results for: urban community

Authors: B. Ozarisoy, E. Ampatzi, G. Z. Lancaster

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This research project is undertaken in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (T.R.N.C). The study focuses on identifying refurbishment activities capable of diagnosing and detecting the underlying problems alongside the challenges offered by the buildings’ typology in addition to identifying the correct construction materials in the refurbishment process which allow for the maximisation of expected energy savings. Attention is drawn to, the level of awareness and understanding of refurbishment activity that needs to be raised in the current construction process alongside factors that include the positive environmental impact and the saving of energy. The approach here is to look at buildings that have been built by private construction companies that have already been refurbished by occupants and to suggest additional control mechanisms for retrofitting that can further enhance the process of renewal. The objective of the research is to investigate the occupants’ behaviour and role in the refurbishment activity; to explore how and why occupants decide to change building components and to understand why and how occupants consider using energy-efficient materials. The present work is based on data from this researcher’s first-hand experience and incorporates the preliminary data collection on recent housing sector statistics, including the year in which housing estates were built, an examination of the characteristics that define the construction industry in the T.R.N.C., building typology and the demographic structure of house owners. The housing estates are chosen from 16 different projects in four different regions of the T.R.N.C. that include urban and suburban areas. There is, therefore, a broad representation of the common drivers in the property market, each with different levels of refurbishment activity and this is coupled with different samplings from different climatic regions within the T.R.N.C. The study is conducted through semi-structured interviews to identify occupants’ behaviour as it is associated with refurbishment activity. The interviews provide all the occupants’ demographic information, needs and intentions as they relate to various aspects of the refurbishment process. This research paper presents the results of semi-structured interviews with 70 homeowners in a selected group of 16 housing estates in five different parts of the T.R.N.C. The people who agreed to be interviewed in this study are all residents of single or multi-family housing units. Alongside the construction process and its impact on the environment, the results point out the need for control mechanisms in the housing sector to promote and support the adoption of retrofit strategies and minimize non-controlled refurbishment activities, in line with diagnostic information of the selected buildings. The expected solutions should be effective, environmentally acceptable and feasible given the type of housing projects under review, with due regard for their location, the climatic conditions within which they were undertaken, the socio-economic standing of the house owners and their attitudes, local resources and legislative constraints. Furthermore, the study goes on to insist on the practical and long-term economic benefits of refurbishment under the proper conditions and why this should be fully understood by the householders.

Keywords: construction process, energy-efficiency, refurbishment activity, retrofitting

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Authors: Marzieh Nojomi, Azadeh Mottaghi, Arghavan Haj-Sheykholeslami, Narjes Khalili, Arash Tehrani Banihashemi

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Background and objectives: Domestic violence is a global problem with severe consequences throughout the life of the victims. Iran’s Ministry of Health has launched an intimate partner violence (IPV) prevention program, integrated in the primary health care services since 2016. The present study is a part of this national program’s evaluation. In this section, we aimed to examine spousal abuse victims’ knowledge and attitude towards domestic violence before and after receivingthese services. Methods: To assess the knowledge and attitudes of victims, a questionnaire designed by Ahmadzadand colleagues in 2013 was used. This questionnaire includes 15 questions regarding knowledge in the fields of definition, epidemiology, and effects on children, outcomes, and prevention of domestic violence. To assess the attitudes, this questionnaire has 10 questions regarding the attitudes toward the causes, effects, and legal or protective support services of domestic violence. To assess the satisfaction and the effect of the program on prevention or reduction of spousal violence episodes, two more questions were also added. Since domestic violence prevalence differs in different parts of the country, we chose nine areas with the highest, the lowest, and moderate prevalence of IPVfor the study. The link to final electronic version of the questionnaire was sent to the randomly selected public rural or urban health centers in the nine chosen areas. Since the study had to be completed in one month, we used newly identified victims as pre-intervention group and people who had at least received one related service from the program (like psychiatric consultation, education about safety measures, supporting organizations and etc.) during the previous year, as our post- intervention group. Results: A hundred and ninety-two newly identified IPV victims and 267 victims who had at least received one related program service during the previous year entered the study. All of the victims were female. Basic characteristics of the two groups, including age, education, occupation, addiction, spouses’ age, spouses’ addiction, duration of the current marriage, and number of children, were not statistically different. In knowledge questions, post- intervention group had statistically better scores in the fields of domestic violence outcomes and its effects on children; however, in the remaining areas, the scores of both groups were similar. The only significant difference in the attitude across the two groups was in the field of legal or protective support services. From the 267 women who had ever received a service from the program, 91.8% were satisfied with the services, and 74% reported a decrease in the number of violent episodes. Conclusion: National IPV prevention program integrated in the primary health care services in Iran is effective in improving the knowledge of victims about domestic violence outcomes and its effects on children. Improving the attitude and knowledge of domestic violence victims about its causes and preventive measures needs more effective interventions. This program can reduce the number of IPV episodes between the spouses, and satisfaction among the service users is high.

Keywords: intimate partner violence, assessment, health services, efficacy

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Authors: Milica B. Veljković, Milica B. Simović, Marija M. Ćorović, Ana D. Milivojević, Anja I. Petrov, Katarina M. Banjanac, Dejan I. Bezbradica

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In recent decades, the scientific community has recognized the growing importance of prebiotics, and therefore, numerous studies are focused on their economic production due to their low presence in natural resources. It has been confirmed that prebiotics is a source of energy for probiotics in the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) and enable their proliferation, consequently leading to the normal functioning of the intestinal microbiota. Also, products of their fermentation are short-chain fatty acids (SCFA), which play a key role in maintaining and improving the health not only of the GIT but also of the whole organism. Among several confirmed prebiotics, fructooligosaccharides (FOS) are considered interesting candidates for use in a wide range of products in the food industry. They are characterized as low-calorie and non-cariogenic substances that represent an adequate sugar substitute and can be considered suitable for use in products intended for diabetics. The subject of this research will be the production of FOS by transforming sucrose using a fructosyltransferase (FTase) present in commercial preparation Pectinex® Ultra SP-L, with special emphasis on the development of adequate FTase immobilization method that would enable selective isolation of the enzyme responsible for the synthesis of FOS from the complex enzymatic mixture. This would lead to considerable enzyme purification and allow its direct incorporation into different sucrose-based products without the fear that the action of the other hydrolytic enzymes may adversely affect the products' functional characteristics. Accordingly, the possibility of selective immobilization of the enzyme using support with primary amino groups, Purolite® A109, which was previously activated and modified using glutaraldehyde (GA), was investigated. In the initial phase of the research, the effects of individual immobilization parameters such as pH, enzyme concentration, and immobilization time were investigated to optimize the process using support chemically activated with 15% and 0.5% GA to form dimers and monomers, respectively. It was determined that highly active immobilized preparations (371.8 IU/g of support - dimer and 213.8 IU/g of support – monomer) were achieved under acidic conditions (pH 4) provided that an enzyme concentration was 50 mg/g of support after 7 h and 3 h, respectively. Bearing in mind the obtained results of the expressed activity, it is noticeable that the formation of dimers showed higher reactivity compared to the form of monomers. Also, in the case of support modification using 15% GA, the value of the ratio of FTase and pectinase (as dominant enzyme mixture component) activity immobilization yields was 16.45, indicating the high feasibility of selective immobilization of FTase on modified polystyrene resin. After obtaining immobilized preparations of satisfactory features, they were tested in a reaction of FOS synthesis under determined optimal conditions. The maximum FOS yields of approximately 50% of total carbohydrates in the reaction mixture were recorded after 21 h. Finally, it can be concluded that the examined immobilization method yielded highly active, stable and, more importantly, refined enzyme preparation that can be further utilized on a larger scale for the development of continual processes for FOS synthesis, as well as for modification of different sucrose-based mediums.

Keywords: chemical modification, fructooligosaccharides, glutaraldehyde, immobilization of fructosyltransferase

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Authors: Gideon Nyuimbe Gasu

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Sub Saharan Africa is at a critical point, experiencing rapid population growth, particularly in urban areas and young growing force. At the same time, the growing risk of catastrophic global climate change threatens to weaken food production system, increase intensity and frequency of drought, flood, and fires and undermine gains on development and poverty reduction. Although the region has the lowest per capital greenhouse gas emission level in the world, it will need to join global efforts to address climate change, including action to avoid significant increases and to encourage a green economy. Thus, there is a need for the concept of 'greening the economy' as was prescribed at Rio Summit of 1992. Renewable energy is one of the criterions to achieve this laudable goal of maintaining a green economy. There is need to address climate change while facilitating continued economic growth and social progress as energy today is critical to economic growth. Fossil fuels remain the major contributor of greenhouse gas emission. Thus, cleaner technologies such as carbon capture storage, renewable energy have emerged to be commercially competitive. This paper sets out to examine how to achieve a low carbon economy with minimal emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases which is one of the outcomes of implementing a green economy. Also, the paper examines the different renewable energy sources such as nuclear, wind, hydro, biofuel, and solar voltaic as a panacea to the looming climate change menace. Finally, the paper assesses the different renewable energy and energy efficiency as a propeller to generating new sources of income and jobs and in turn reduces carbon emission. The research shall engage qualitative, evaluative and comparative methods. The research will employ both primary and secondary sources of information. The primary sources of information shall be drawn from the sub Saharan African region and the global environmental organizations, energy legislation, policies and related industries and the judicial processes. The secondary sources will be made up of some books, journal articles, commentaries, discussions, observations, explanations, expositions, suggestions, prescriptions and other material sourced from the internet on renewable energy as a panacea to climate change. All information obtained from these sources will be subject to content analysis. The research result will show that the entire planet is warming as a result of the activities of mankind which is clear evidence that the current development is fundamentally unsustainable. Equally, the study will reveal that a low carbon development pathway in the sub Saharan African region should be embraced to minimize emission of greenhouse gases such as using renewable energy rather than coal, oil, and gas. The study concludes that until adequate strategies are devised towards the use of renewable energy the region will continue to add and worsen the current climate change menace and other adverse environmental conditions.

Keywords: carbon dioxide, climate change, legislation/law, renewable energy

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Authors: Sesethu G. Njokweni, Marelize Botes, Emile W. H. Van Zyl

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An alternative strategy to the production of bioethanol is by examining the degradability of biomass in a natural system such as the rumen of mammals. This anaerobic microbial community has higher cellulolytic activities than microbial communities from other habitats and degrades cellulose to produce volatile fatty acids (VFA), methane and CO₂. VFAs have the potential to serve as intermediate products for electrochemical conversion to hydrocarbon fuels. In vitro mimicking of this process would be more cost-effective than bioethanol production as it does not require chemical pre-treatment of biomass, a sterile environment or added enzymes. The strategies of the carboxylate platform and the co-cultures of a bovine ruminal microbiota from cannulated cows were combined in order to investigate and optimize the bioconversion of agricultural biomass (apple and grape pomace, citrus pulp, sugarcane bagasse and triticale straw) to high value VFAs as intermediates for biofuel production in a consolidated bioprocess. Optimisation of reactor conditions was investigated using five different ruminal inoculum concentrations; 5,10,15,20 and 25% with fixed pH at 6.8 and temperature at 39 ˚C. The ANKOM 200/220 fiber analyser was used to analyse in vitro neutral detergent fiber (NDF) disappearance of the feedstuffs. Fresh and cryo-frozen (5% DMSO and 50% glycerol for 3 months) rumen cultures were tested for the retainment of fermentation capacity and durability in 72 h fermentations in 125 ml serum vials using a FURO medical solutions 6-valve gas manifold to induce anaerobic conditions. Fermentation of apple pomace, triticale straw, and grape pomace showed no significant difference (P > 0.05) in the effect of 15 and 20 % inoculum concentrations for the total VFA yield. However, high performance liquid chromatographic separation within the two inoculum concentrations showed a significant difference (P < 0.05) in acetic acid yield, with 20% inoculum concentration being the optimum at 4.67 g/l. NDF disappearance of 85% in 96 h and total VFA yield of 11.5 g/l in 72 h (A/P ratio = 2.04) for apple pomace entailed that it was the optimal feedstuff for this process. The NDF disappearance and VFA yield of DMSO (82% NDF disappearance and 10.6 g/l VFA) and glycerol (90% NDF disappearance and 11.6 g/l VFA) stored rumen also showed significantly similar degradability of apple pomace with lack of treatment effect differences compared to a fresh rumen control (P > 0.05). The lack of treatment effects was a positive sign in indicating that there was no difference between the stored samples and the fresh rumen control. Retaining of the fermentation capacity within the preserved cultures suggests that its metabolic characteristics were preserved due to resilience and redundancy of the rumen culture. The amount of degradability and VFA yield within a short span was similar to other carboxylate platforms that have longer run times. This study shows that by virtue of faster rates and high extent of degradability, small scale alternatives to bioethanol such as rumen microbiomes and other natural fermenting microbiomes can be employed to enhance the feasibility of biofuels large-scale implementation.

Keywords: agricultural wastes, carboxylate platform, rumen microbiome, volatile fatty acids

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Authors: Same Noel Ngando, Yakub Abdulfatai Olatunji

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Renewable energy micro-grids, such as those powered by solar or wind energy, are often intermittent in nature. This means that the amount of energy generated by these systems can vary depending on weather conditions or other factors, which can make it difficult to ensure a steady supply of power. To address this issue, energy storage systems have been developed to increase the reliability of renewable energy micro-grids. Battery systems have been the dominant energy storage technology for renewable energy micro-grids. Batteries can store large amounts of energy in a relatively small and compact package, making them easy to install and maintain in a micro-grid setting. Additionally, batteries can be quickly charged and discharged, allowing them to respond quickly to changes in energy demand. However, the process involved in recycling batteries is quite costly and difficult. An alternative energy storage system that is gaining popularity is hydrogen storage. Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that can be produced from renewable energy sources such as solar or wind. It can be stored in large quantities at low cost, making it suitable for long-distance mass storage. Unlike batteries, hydrogen does not degrade over time, so it can be stored for extended periods without the need for frequent maintenance or replacement, allowing it to be used as a backup power source when the micro-grid is not generating enough energy to meet demand. When hydrogen is needed, it can be converted back into electricity through a fuel cell. Energy consumption data is got from a particular residential area in Daegu, South Korea, and the data is processed and analyzed. From the analysis, the total energy demand is calculated, and different hybrid energy system configurations are designed using HOMER Pro (Hybrid Optimization for Multiple Energy Resources) and MATLAB software. A techno-economic and environmental comparison and life cycle assessment (LCA) of the different configurations using battery and hydrogen as storage systems are carried out. The various scenarios included PV-hydrogen-grid system, PV-hydrogen-grid-wind, PV-hydrogen-grid-biomass, PV-hydrogen-wind, PV-hydrogen-biomass, biomass-hydrogen, wind-hydrogen, PV-battery-grid-wind, PV- battery -grid-biomass, PV- battery -wind, PV- battery -biomass, and biomass- battery. From the analysis, the least cost system for the location was the PV-hydrogen-grid system, with a net present cost of about USD 9,529,161. Even though all scenarios were environmentally friendly, taking into account the recycling cost and pollution involved in battery systems, all systems with hydrogen as a storage system produced better results. In conclusion, hydrogen is becoming a very prominent energy storage solution for renewable energy micro-grids. It is easier to store compared with electric power, so it is suitable for long-distance mass storage. Hydrogen storage systems have several advantages over battery systems, including flexibility, long-term stability, and low environmental impact. The cost of hydrogen storage is still relatively high, but it is expected to decrease as more hydrogen production, and storage infrastructure is built. With the growing focus on renewable energy and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, hydrogen is expected to play an increasingly important role in the energy storage landscape.

Keywords: renewable energy systems, microgrid, hydrogen production, energy storage systems

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Authors: Aleksandra Bylinska, Samantha Slight-Webb, Kevin Thomas, Miles Smith, Susan Macwana, Nicolas Dominguez, Eliza Chakravarty, Joan T. Merrill, Judith A. James, Joel M. Guthridge

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Background: Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) is an interferon-related autoimmune disease characterized by B cell dysfunction. One of the main hallmarks is a loss of tolerance to self-antigens leading to increased levels of autoantibodies against nuclear components (ANAs). However, up to 20% of healthy ANA+ individuals will not develop clinical illness. SLE is more prevalent among women and minority populations (African, Asian American and Hispanics). Moreover, African Americans have a stronger interferon (IFN) signature and develop more severe symptoms. The exact mechanisms involved in ethnicity-dependent B cell dysregulation and the progression of autoimmune disease from ANA+ healthy individuals to clinical disease remains unclear. Methods: Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from African (AA) and European American (EA) ANA- (n=12), ANA+ (n=12) and SLE (n=12) individuals were assessed by multimodal scRNA-Seq/CITE-Seq methods to examine differential gene signatures in specific B cell subsets. Library preparation was done with a 10X Genomics Chromium according to established protocols and sequenced on Illumina NextSeq. The data were further analyzed for distinct cluster identification and differential gene signatures in the Seurat package in R and pathways analysis was performed using Ingenuity Pathways Analysis (IPA). Results: Comparing all subjects, 14 distinct B cell clusters were identified using a community detection algorithm and visualized with Uniform Manifold Approximation Projection (UMAP). The proportion of each of those clusters varied by disease status and ethnicity. Transitional B cells trended higher in ANA+ healthy individuals, especially in AA. Ribonucleoprotein high population (HNRNPH1 elevated, heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoprotein, RNP-Hi) of proliferating Naïve B cells were more prevalent in SLE patients, specifically in EA. Interferon-induced protein high population (IFIT-Hi) of Naive B cells are increased in EA ANA- individuals. The proportion of memory B cells and plasma cells clusters tend to be expanded in SLE patients. As anticipated, we observed a higher signature of cytokine-related pathways, especially interferon, in SLE individuals. Pathway analysis among AA individuals revealed an NRF2-mediated Oxidative Stress response signature in the transitional B cell cluster, not seen in EA individuals. TNFR1/2 and Sirtuin Signaling pathway genes were higher in AA IFIT-Hi Naive B cells, whereas they were not detected in EA individuals. Interferon signaling was observed in B cells in both ethnicities. Oxidative phosphorylation was found in age-related B cells (ABCs) for both ethnicities, whereas Death Receptor Signaling was found only in EA patients in these cells. Interferon-related transcription factors were elevated in ABCs and IFIT-Hi Naive B cells in SLE subjects of both ethnicities. Conclusions: ANA+ healthy individuals have altered gene expression pathways in B cells that might drive apoptosis and subsequent clinical autoimmune pathogenesis. Increases in certain regulatory pathways may delay progression to SLE. Further, AA individuals have more elevated activation pathways that may make them more susceptible to SLE.

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Authors: Tanveer Ahmed Choudhury

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Background: Bangladesh is one of the largest deltas in the world, with high population density and high rates of poverty and illiteracy. 80% of the country is on low-lying floodplains, leaving the country one of the most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change: sea level rise, cyclones and storms, salinity intrusion, rising temperatures and heavy monsoon downpours. Such climatic events already limit Economic Development in the country. Although Bangladesh has had little responsibility in contributing to global climatic change, it is vulnerable to both its direct and indirect impacts. Real threats include reduced agricultural production, worsening food security, increased incidence of flooding and drought, spreading disease and an increased risk of conflict over scarce land and water resources. Currently, 8.3 million Bangladeshis live in cyclone high risk areas. However, by 2050 this is expected to grow to 20.3 million people, if proper adaptive actions are not taken. Under a high emissions scenario, an additional 7.6 million people will be exposed to very high salinity by 2050 compared to current levels. It is also projected that, an average of 7.2 million people will be affected by flooding due to sea level rise every year between 2070-2100 and If global emissions decrease rapidly and adaptation interventions are taken, the population affected by flooding could be limited to only about 14,000 people. To combat the climate change adverse effects, Bangladesh government has initiated many adaptive measures specially in infrastructure and renewable energy sector. Government is investing huge money and initiated many projects which have been proved very success full. Objectives: The objective of this paper is to describe some successful measures initiated by Bangladesh government in its effort to make the country a Climate Resilient. Methodology: Review of operation plan and activities of different relevant Ministries of Bangladesh government. Result: The following initiative projects, programs and activities are considered as best practices for Climate Change adaptation successes for Bangladesh: 1. The Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL); 2. Climate Change and Health Promotion Unit (CCHPU); 3. The Climate Change Trust Fund (CCTF); 4. Community Climate Change Project (CCCP); 5. Health, Population, Nutrition Sector Development Program (HPNSDP, 2011-2016)- "Climate Change and Environmental Issues"; 6. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh and WHO Collaboration; - National Adaptation Plan. -"Building adaptation to climate change in health in least developed countries through resilient WASH". 7. COP-21 “Climate and health country profile -2015 Bangladesh. Conclusion: Due to a vast coastline, low-lying land and abundance of rivers, Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate change. Having extensive experience with facing natural disasters, Bangladesh has developed a successful adaptation program, which led to a significant reduction in casualties from extreme weather events. In a low income country setting, Bangladesh had successfully adapted various projects and initiatives to combat future Climate Change challenges.

Keywords: climate, change, success, Bangladesh

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Authors: N. Singh, G. K. Darbha

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Since the last decade, a wave of research has begun to study the prevalence and impact of ever-increasing plastic pollution in the environment. The wide application and ubiquitous distribution of plastic have become a global concern due to its persistent nature. The disposal of plastics has emerged as one of the major challenges for waste management landfills. Microplastics (MPs) have found its existence in almost every environment, from the high altitude mountain lake to the deep sea sediments, polar icebergs, coral reefs, estuaries, beaches, and river, etc. Microplastics are fragments of plastics with size less than 5 mm. Microplastics can be classified as primary microplastics and secondary microplastics. Primary microplastics includes purposefully introduced microplastics into the end products for consumers (microbeads used in facial cleansers, personal care product, etc.), pellets (used in manufacturing industries) or fibres (from textile industries) which finally enters into the environment. Secondary microplastics are formed by disintegration of larger fragments under the exposure of sunlight, mechanical abrasive forces by rain, waves, wind and/or water. A number of factors affect the quantity of microplastic present in freshwater environments. In addition to physical forces, human population density proximal to the water body, proximity to urban centres, water residence time, and size of the water body also affects plastic properties. With time, other complex processes in nature such as physical, chemical and biological break down plastics by interfering with its structural integrity. Several studies demonstrate that microplastics found in wastewater sludge being used as manure for agricultural fields, thus having the tendency to alter the soil environment condition influencing the microbial population as well. Inadequate data are available on the fate and transport of microplastics under varying environmental conditions that are required to supplement important information for further research. In addition, microplastics have the tendency to absorb heavy metals and hydrophobic organic contaminants such as PAHs and PCBs from its surroundings and thus acting as carriers for these contaminants in the environment system. In this study, three kinds of microplastics (polyethylene, polypropylene and expanded polystyrene) of different densities were chosen. Plastic samples were placed in sand with different aqueous media (distilled water, surface water, groundwater and marine water). It was incubated at varying temperatures (25, 35 and 40 °C) and agitation levels (rpm). The results show that the number of plastic fragments enhanced with increase in temperature and agitation speed. Moreover, the rate of disintegration of expanded polystyrene is high compared to other plastics. These results demonstrate that temperature, salinity, and mechanical abrasion plays a major role in degradation of plastics. Since weathered microplastics are more harmful as compared to the virgin microplastics, long-term studies involving other environmental factors are needed to have a better understanding of degradation of plastics.

Keywords: environmental contamination, fragmentation, microplastics, temperature, weathering

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Authors: Irum Naz

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In the Arabian higher education context, linguistic proficiency in the English language is considered crucial for the developmental sustainability, economic growth, and stability of communities and societies. Qatar’s educational reforms package, through the 2030 vision, identifies the acquisition of English at K-12 as an essential survival communication tool for globalization, believing that Qatari students need better preparation to take on the responsibilities of leadership and to participate effectively in the country’s surging economy. The idea of introducing Qatari students to modern curricula benchmarked to high-student-performance curricula in developed countries is one of the components of reformatory design principles of Education for New Era reform project that is mutually consented to and supported by the Office of Shared Services, Communications Office, and Supreme Education Council. In appreciation of the government’s vision, the English Language Centre (ELC) at the Community College of Qatar ran an internal educational audit and conducted evaluative research to understand and appraise the value, impact, and practicality of the existing ELC language development program. This study sought to identify the type of change that could identify and improve the quality of Foundation Program courses and the manners in which second language learners could be assisted to transit smoothly between (ELC) levels. Following the interpretivist paradigm and mixed research method, the data was gathered through a bicyclic research model and a triangular design. The analyses of the data suggested that there was a need for improvement in the ELC program as a whole, and particularly in terms of curriculum, student learning outcomes, and the general learning environment in the department. Key findings suggest that the target program would benefit from significant revisions, which would include narrowing the focus of the courses, providing sets of specific learning objectives, and preventing repetition between levels. Another promising finding was about the assessment tools and process. The data suggested that a set of standardized assessments that more closely suited the programs of study should be devised. It was also recommended that students undergo a more comprehensive placement process to ensure that they begin the program at an appropriate level and get the maximum benefit from their learning experience. Although this ties into the idea of curriculum revamp, it was expected that students could leave the ELC having had exposure to courses in English for specific purposes. The idea of a more reliable exit assessment for students was raised frequently so ELC could regulate itself and ensure optimum learning outcomes. Another important recommendation was the provision of a Student Learning Center for students that would help them to receive personalized tuition, differentiated instruction, and self-driven and self-evaluated learning experience. In addition, an extra study level was recommended to be added to the program to accommodate the different levels of English language proficiency represented among ELC students. The evidence collected in the course of conducting the study suggests that significant change is needed in the structure of the ELC program, specifically about curriculum, the program learning outcomes, and the learning environment in general.

Keywords: educational audit, ESL, optimum learning outcomes, Qatar’s educational reforms, self-driven and self-evaluated learning experience, Student Learning Center

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Authors: Andrew Laming, John Hattie, Mark Wilson

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Nine Queensland Independent high schools provided deidentified student-matched ATAR and NAPLAN data for all 1217 ATAR graduates since 2020 who also sat NAPLAN at the school. Graduating cohorts from the nine schools contained a mean 100 ATAR graduates with previous NAPLAN data from their school. Excluded were vocational students (mean=27) and any ATAR graduates without NAPLAN data (mean=20). Based on Index of Community Socio-Educational Access (ICSEA) prediction, all schools had larger that predicted proportions of their students graduating with ATARs. There were an additional 173 students not releasing their ATARs to their school (14%), requiring this data to be inferred by schools. Gain was established by first converting each student’s strongest NAPLAN domain to a statewide percentile, then subtracting this result from final ATAR. The resulting ‘percentile shift’ was corrected for plausible ATAR participation at each NAPLAN level. Strongest NAPLAN domain had the highest correlation with ATAR (R2=0.58). RESULTS School mean NAPLAN scores fitted ICSEA closely (R2=0.97). Schools achieved a mean cohort gain of two ATAR rankings, but only 66% of students gained. This ranged from 46% of top-NAPLAN decile students gaining, rising to 75% achieving gains outside the top decile. The 54% of top-decile students whose ATAR fell short of prediction lost a mean 4.0 percentiles (or 6.2 percentiles prior to correction for regression to the mean). 71% of students in smaller schools gained, compared to 63% in larger schools. NAPLAN variability in each of the 13 ICSEA1100 cohorts was 17%, with both intra-school and inter-school variation of these values extremely low (0.3% to 1.8%). Mean ATAR change between years in each school was just 1.1 ATAR ranks. This suggests consecutive school cohorts and ICSEA-similar schools share very similar distributions and outcomes over time. Quantile analysis of the NAPLAN/ATAR revealed heteroscedasticity, but splines offered little additional benefit over simple linear regression. The NAPLAN/ATAR R2 was 0.33. DISCUSSION Standardised data like NAPLAN and ATAR offer educators a simple no-cost progression metric to analyse performance in conjunction with their internal test results. Change is expressed in percentiles, or ATAR shift per student, which is layperson intuitive. Findings may also reduce ATAR/vocational stream mismatch, reveal proportions of cohorts meeting or falling short of expectation and demonstrate by how much. Finally, ‘crashed’ ATARs well below expectation are revealed, which schools can reasonably work to minimise. The percentile shift method is neither value-add nor a growth percentile. In the absence of exit NAPLAN testing, this metric is unable to discriminate academic gain from legitimate ATAR-maximizing strategies. But by controlling for ICSEA, ATAR proportion variation and student mobility, it uncovers progression to ATAR metrics which are not currently publicly available. However achieved, ATAR maximisation is a sought-after private good. So long as standardised nationwide data is available, this analysis offers useful analytics for educators and reasonable predictivity when counselling subsequent cohorts about their ATAR prospects.  

Keywords: NAPLAN, ATAR, analytics, measurement, gain, performance, data, percentile, value-added, high school, numeracy, reading comprehension, variability, regression to the mean

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Authors: Alberto Azevedo, Ricardo Martins, André B. Fortunato, Anabela Oliveira

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Water is under severe threat today because of the rising population, increased agricultural and industrial needs, and the intensifying effects of climate change. Due to sea-level rise, erosion, and demographic pressure, the coastal regions are of significant concern to the scientific community. The Water Monitoring Sentinel Cloud platform (WORSICA) service is focused on providing new tools for monitoring water in coastal and inland areas, taking advantage of remote sensing, in situ and tidal modeling data. WORSICA is a service that can be used to determine the coastline, coastal inundation areas, and the limits of inland water bodies using remote sensing (satellite and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles - UAVs) and in situ data (from field surveys). It applies to various purposes, from determining flooded areas (from rainfall, storms, hurricanes, or tsunamis) to detecting large water leaks in major water distribution networks. This service was built on components developed in national and European projects, integrated to provide a one-stop-shop service for remote sensing information, integrating data from the Copernicus satellite and drone/unmanned aerial vehicles, validated by existing online in-situ data. Since WORSICA is operational using the European Open Science Cloud (EOSC) computational infrastructures, the service can be accessed via a web browser and is freely available to all European public research groups without additional costs. In addition, the private sector will be able to use the service, but some usage costs may be applied, depending on the type of computational resources needed by each application/user. Although the service has three main sub-services i) coastline detection; ii) inland water detection; iii) water leak detection in irrigation networks, in the present study, an application of the service to Óbidos lagoon in Portugal is shown, where the user can monitor the evolution of the lagoon inlet and estimate the topography of the intertidal areas without any additional costs. The service has several distinct methodologies implemented based on the computations of the water indexes (e.g., NDWI, MNDWI, AWEI, and AWEIsh) retrieved from the satellite image processing. In conjunction with the tidal data obtained from the FES model, the system can estimate a coastline with the corresponding level or even topography of the inter-tidal areas based on the Flood2Topo methodology. The outcomes of the WORSICA service can be helpful for several intervention areas such as i) emergency by providing fast access to inundated areas to support emergency rescue operations; ii) support of management decisions on hydraulic infrastructures operation to minimize damage downstream; iii) climate change mitigation by minimizing water losses and reduce water mains operation costs; iv) early detection of water leakages in difficult-to-access water irrigation networks, promoting their fast repair.

Keywords: remote sensing, coastline detection, water detection, satellite data, sentinel, Copernicus, EOSC

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Authors: Yi Wang, Greg Hearn, Terry Flew

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In order to understand how cultural innovation occurs, this paper explores the interaction in Shenzhen of China between universities, creative industries, and government in creative economic using the Triple Helix framework. During the past two decades, Triple Helix has been recognized as a new theory of innovation to inform and guide policy-making in national and regional development. Universities and governments around the world, especially in developing countries, have taken actions to strengthen connections with creative industries to develop regional economies. To date research based on the Triple Helix model has focused primarily on Science and Technology collaborations, largely ignoring other fields. Hence, there is an opportunity for work to be done in seeking to better understand how the Triple Helix framework might apply in the field of creative industries and what knowledge might be gleaned from such an undertaking. Since the late 1990s, the concept of ‘creative industries’ has been introduced as policy and academic discourse. The development of creative industries policy by city agencies has improved city wealth creation and economic capital. It claims to generate a ‘new economy’ of enterprise dynamics and activities for urban renewal through the arts and digital media, via knowledge transfer in knowledge-based economies. Creative industries also involve commercial inputs to the creative economy, to dynamically reshape the city into an innovative culture. In particular, this paper will concentrate on creative spaces (incubators, digital tech parks, maker spaces, art hubs) where academic, industry and government interact. China has sought to enhance the brand of their manufacturing industry in cultural policy. It aims to transfer the image of ‘Made in China’ to ‘Created in China’ as well as to give Chinese brands more international competitiveness in a global economy. Shenzhen is a notable example in China as an international knowledge-based city following this path. In 2009, the Shenzhen Municipal Government proposed the city slogan ‘Build a Leading Cultural City”’ to show the ambition of government’s strong will to develop Shenzhen’s cultural capacity and creativity. The vision of Shenzhen is to become a cultural innovation center, a regional cultural center and an international cultural city. However, there has been a lack of attention to the triple helix interactions in the creative industries in China. In particular, there is limited knowledge about how interactions in creative spaces co-location within triple helix networks significantly influence city based innovation. That is, the roles of participating institutions need to be better understood. Thus, this paper discusses the interplay between university, creative industries and government in Shenzhen. Secondary analysis and documentary analysis will be used as methods in an effort to practically ground and illustrate this theoretical framework. Furthermore, this paper explores how are creative spaces being used to implement Triple Helix in creative industries. In particular, the new combination of resources generated from the synthesized consolidation and interactions through the institutions. This study will thus provide an innovative lens to understand the components, relationships and functions that exist within creative spaces by applying Triple Helix framework to the creative industries.

Keywords: cultural policy, creative industries, creative city, triple Helix

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Authors: Jungyeol Hong, Dongjoo Park

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The urban transit system is a critical part of a solution to the economic, energy, and environmental challenges. Furthermore, it ultimately contributes the improvement of people’s quality of lives. For taking these kinds of advantages, the city of Seoul has tried to construct an integrated transit system including both subway and buses. The effort led to the fact that approximately 6.9 million citizens use the integrated transit system every day for their trips. Diagnosing the current transit network is a significant task to provide more convenient and pleasant transit environment. Therefore, the critical objective of this study is to establish a methodological framework for the analysis of an integrated bus-subway network and to examine the relationship between subway ridership and parameters such as network topology measures, bus demand, and a variety of commercial business facilities. Regarding a statistical approach to estimate subway ridership at a station level, many previous studies relied on Ordinary Least Square regression, but there was lack of studies considering the endogeneity issues which might show in the subway ridership prediction model. This study focused on both discovering the impacts of integrated transit network topology measures and endogenous effect of bus demand on subway ridership. It could ultimately contribute to developing more accurate subway ridership estimation accounting for its statistical bias. The spatial scope of the study covers Seoul city in South Korea, and it includes 243 subway stations and 10,120 bus stops with the temporal scope set during twenty-four hours with one-hour interval time panels each. The subway and bus ridership information in detail was collected from the Seoul Smart Card data in 2015 and 2016. First, integrated subway-bus network topology measures which have characteristics regarding connectivity, centrality, transitivity, and reciprocity were estimated based on the complex network theory. The results of integrated transit network topology analysis were compared to subway-only network topology. Also, the non-recursive approach which is Three-Stage Least Square was applied to develop the daily subway ridership model as capturing the endogeneity between bus and subway demands. Independent variables included roadway geometry, commercial business characteristics, social-economic characteristics, safety index, transit facility attributes, and dummies for seasons and time zone. Consequently, it was found that network topology measures were significant size effect. Especially, centrality measures showed that the elasticity was a change of 4.88% for closeness centrality, 24.48% for betweenness centrality while the elasticity of bus ridership was 8.85%. Moreover, it was proved that bus demand and subway ridership were endogenous in a non-recursive manner as showing that predicted bus ridership and predicted subway ridership is statistically significant in OLS regression models. Therefore, it shows that three-stage least square model appears to be a plausible model for efficient subway ridership estimation. It is expected that the proposed approach provides a reliable guideline that can be used as part of the spectrum of tools for evaluating a city-wide integrated transit network.

Keywords: integrated transit system, network topology measures, three-stage least squared, endogeneity, subway ridership

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Authors: Felix Darko-Amoah, Daniel Acquah

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In contemporary ecosystems for developing countries like Ghana, the need to explore innovative solutions for sustainable livelihoods of farmers is more important than ever. With Ghana’s population growing steadily and the demand for food, fiber and shelter increasing, it is imperative that the construction industry and agriculture come together to address the challenges faced by farmers in the country. In order to enhance the livelihoods of cocoa farmers in Ghana, this paper provides an innovative strategy that aims to integrate the areas of civil engineering and cash crop agriculture. This study focuses on cocoa cultivation in poorer nations, where farmers confront a variety of difficulties include restricted access to financing, subpar infrastructure, and insufficient support services. We seek to improve farmers' access to financing, improve infrastructure, and provide support services that are essential to their success by combining the fields of building engineering and cocoa production. The findings of the study are beneficial to cocoa producers, community extension agents, and construction engineers. In order to accomplish our objectives, we conducted 307 of field investigations in particular cocoa growing communities in the Western Region of Ghana. Several studies have shown that there is a lack of adequate infrastructure and financing, leading to low yields, subpar beans, and low farmer profitability in developing nations like Ghana. Our goal is to give farmers access to better infrastructure, better financing, and support services that are crucial to their success through the fusion of construction engineering and cocoa production. Based on data gathered from the field investigations, the results show that the employment of appropriate technology and methods for developing structures, roads, and other infrastructure in rural regions is one of the essential components of this strategy. For instance, we find that using affordable, environmentally friendly materials like bamboo, rammed earth, and mud bricks can assist to cut expenditures while also protecting the environment. By applying simple relational techniques to the data gathered, the results also show that construction engineers are crucial in planning and building infrastructure that is appropriate for the local environment and circumstances and resilient to natural disasters like floods. Thus, the convergence of construction engineering and cash crop cultivation is another crucial component of the agriculture-construction interplay. For instance, farmers can receive financial assistance to buy essential inputs, such as seeds, fertilizer, and tools, as well as training in proper farming methods. Moreover, extension services can be offered to assist farmers in marketing their crops and enhancing their livelihoods and revenue. In conclusion, our analysis of responses from the 307 participants depicts that the combination of construction engineering and cash crop agriculture offers an innovative approach to improving farmers' livelihoods in cocoa farming communities in Ghana. In conclusion, by inculcating the findings of this study into core decision-making, policymakers can help farmers build sustainable and profitable livelihoods by addressing challenges such as limited access to financing, poor infrastructure, and inadequate support services.

Keywords: cocoa agriculture, construction engineering, farm buildings and equipment, improved livelihoods of farmers

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Authors: Yael Rieder, Yael Gilboa, S. O. Adva, Efrat Halevi, Ronnie Tepper

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Background: Operation of ultrasound equipment is a core skill for many clinical specialties. As part of the training program at -Simultech- a simulation center for Ob\Gyn at the Meir Medical Center, Israel, teaching how to operate ultrasound equipment requires dealing with misunderstandings of spatial and 3D orientation, failure of the operator to hold a transducer correctly, and limited ability to evaluate the data on the screen. We have developed a platform intended to endow physicians and sonographers with clinical and operational skills of obstetric ultrasound. Simultech's simulations are focused on medical knowledge, risk management, technology operations and physician-patient communication. The simulations encompass extreme work conditions. Setup: Between eight and ten of the eight hundred and fifty physicians and sonographers of the Clalit health services from seven hospitals and eight community centers across Israel, participate in individual Ob/Gyn training sessions each week. These include Ob/Gyn specialists, experts, interns, and sonographers. Innovative teaching and training methodologies: The six-hour training program includes: (1) An educational computer program that challenges trainees to deal with medical questions based upon ultrasound pictures and films. (2) Sophisticated hands-on simulators that challenge the trainees to practice correct grip of the transducer, elucidate pathology, and practice daily tasks such as biometric measurements and analysis of sonographic data. (3) Participation in a video-taped simulation which focuses on physician-patient communications. In the simulation, the physician is required to diagnose the clinical condition of a hired actress based on the data she provides and by evaluating the assigned ultrasound films accordingly. Giving ‘bad news’ to the patient may put the physician in a stressful situation that must be properly managed. (4) Feedback at the end of each phase is provided by a designated trainer, not a physician, who is specially qualified by Ob\Gyn senior specialists. (5) A group exercise in which the trainer presents a medico-legal case in order to encourage the participants to use their own experience and knowledge to conduct a productive ‘brainstorming’ session. Medical cases are presented and analyzed by the participants together with the trainer's feedback. Findings: (1) The training methods and content that Simultech provides allows trainees to review their medical and communications skills. (2) Simultech training sessions expose physicians to both basic and new, up-to-date cases, refreshing and expanding the trainee's knowledge. (3) Practicing on advanced simulators enables trainees to understand the sonographic space and to implement the basic principles of ultrasound. (4) Communications simulations were found to be beneficial for trainees who were unaware of their interpersonal skills. The trainer feedback, supported by the recorded simulation, allows the trainee to draw conclusions about his performance. Conclusion: Simultech was found to contribute to physicians at all levels of clinical expertise who deal with ultrasound. A break in daily routine together with attendance at a neutral educational center can vastly improve performance and outlook.

Keywords: medical training, simulations, ultrasound, Simultech

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Authors: Tracey Woods

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In the ever-evolving landscape of academia, the traditional role of the librarian has undergone a remarkable transformation. Once considered as custodians of books and gatekeepers of information, librarians have the potential to take on the vital role of facilitators of cross and inter-disciplinary projects. This shift is driven by the growing recognition of the value of interdisciplinary collaboration in addressing complex research questions in pursuit of novel solutions to real-world problems. This paper shall explore the potential of the academic librarian’s role in facilitating innovative, multi-disciplinary projects, both recognising and validating the vital role that the librarian plays in a somewhat underplayed profession. Academic libraries support teaching, the strengthening of knowledge discourse, and, potentially, the development of innovative practices. As the role of the library gradually morphs from a quiet repository of books to a community-based information hub, a potential opportunity arises. The academic librarian’s role is to build knowledge across a wide span of topics, from the advancement of AI to subject-specific information, and, whilst librarians are generally not offered the research opportunities and funding that the traditional academic disciplines enjoy, they are often invited to help build research in support of the academic. This identifies that one of the primary skills of any 21st-century librarian must be the ability to collaborate and facilitate multi-disciplinary projects. In universities seeking to develop research diversity and academic performance, there is an increasing awareness of the need for collaboration between faculties to enable novel directions and advancements. This idea has been documented and discussed by several researchers; however, there is not a great deal of literature available from recent studies. Having a team based in the library that is adept at creating effective collaborative partnerships is valuable for any academic institution. This paper outlines the development of such a project, initiated within and around an identified library-specific need: the replication of fragile special collections for object-based learning. The research was developed as a multi-disciplinary project involving the faculties of engineering (digital twins lab), architecture, design, and education. Centred around methods for developing a fragile archive into a series of tactile objects furthers knowledge and understanding in both the role of the library as a facilitator of projects, chairing and supporting, alongside contributing to the research process and innovating ideas through the bank of knowledge found amongst the staff and their liaising capabilities. This paper shall present the method of project development from the initiation of ideas to the development of prototypes and dissemination of the objects to teaching departments for analysis. The exact replication of artefacts is also balanced with the adaptation and evolutionary speculations initiated by the design team when adapted as a teaching studio method. The dynamic response required from the library to generate and facilitate these multi-disciplinary projects highlights the information expertise and liaison skills that the librarian possesses. As academia embraces this evolution, the potential for groundbreaking discoveries and innovative solutions across disciplines becomes increasingly attainable.

Keywords: Liaison librarian, multi-disciplinary collaborations, library innovations, librarian stakeholders

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Authors: Michelle E. Taylor, Clare E. Morrall

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Microplastics are small particles produced for industrial purposes or formed by breakdown of anthropogenic debris. Caribbean nations import large quantities of plastic products. The Caribbean region is vulnerable to natural disasters and Climate Change is predicted to bring multiple additional challenges to island nations. Microplastics have been found in an array of marine environments and in a diversity of marine species. Occurrence of microplastic in the intestinal tracts of marine fish is a concern to human and ecosystem health as pollutants and pathogens can associate with plastics. Studies have shown that the incidence of microplastics in marine fish varies with species and location. Prevalence of microplastics (≤ 5 mm) in fish species from Grenadian waters (representing pelagic, semi-pelagic and demersal lifestyles) harvested for human consumption have been investigated via gut analysis. Harvested tissue was digested in 10% KOH and particles retained on a 0.177 mm sieve were examined. Microplastics identified have been classified according to type, colour and size. Over 97% of fish examined thus far (n=34) contained microplastics. Current and future work includes examining the invasive Lionfish (Pterois spp.) for microplastics, investigating marine invertebrate species as well as examining environmental sources of microplastics (i.e. rivers, coastal waters and sand). Owing to concerns of pollutant accumulation on microplastics and potential migration into organismal tissues, we plan to analyse fish tissue for mercury and other persistent pollutants. Despite having ~110,000 inhabitants, the island nation of Grenada imported approximately 33 million plastic bottles in 2013, of which it is estimated less than 5% were recycled. Over 30% of the imported bottles were ‘unmanaged’, and as such are potential litter/marine debris. A revised Litter Abatement Act passed into law in Grenada in 2015, but little enforcement of the law is evident to date. A local Non-governmental organization (NGO) ‘The Grenada Green Group’ (G3) is focused on reducing litter in Grenada through lobbying government to implement the revised act and running sessions in schools, community groups and on local media and social media to raise awareness of the problems associated with plastics. A local private company has indicated willingness to support an Anti-Litter Campaign in 2018 and local awareness of the need for a reduction of single use plastic use and litter seems to be high. The Government of Grenada have called for a Sustainable Waste Management Strategy and a ban on both Styrofoam and plastic grocery bags are among recommendations recently submitted. A Styrofoam ban will be in place at the St. George’s University campus from January 1st, 2018 and many local businesses have already voluntarily moved away from Styrofoam. Our findings underscore the importance of continuing investigations into microplastics in marine life; this will contribute to understanding the associated health risks. Furthermore, our findings support action to mitigate the volume of plastics entering the world’s oceans. We hope that Grenada’s future will involve a lot less plastic. This research was supported by the Caribbean Node of the Global Partnership on Marine Litter.

Keywords: Caribbean, microplastics, pollution, small island developing nation

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Authors: Ruchira Das

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The major Metropolises of India are resultant of Colonial manifestation of Production, Consumption and Sustenance. These cities grew, survived, and sustained on the basic whims of Colonial Power and Administrative Agendas. They were symbols of power, authority and administration. Within them some Colonial Towns remained as small towns within the close vicinity of the major metropolises and functioned as self–sufficient units until peripheral development due to tremendous pressure occurred in the metropolises. After independence huge expansion in Judiciary and Administration system resulted City Oriented Employment. A large number of people started residing within the city or within commutable distance of the city and it accelerated expansion of the cities. Since then Budgetary and Planning expenditure brought a new pace in Economic Activities. Investment in Industry and Agriculture sector generated opportunity of employment which further led towards urbanization. After two decades of Budgetary and Planning economic activities in India, a new era started in metropolitan expansion. Four major metropolises started further expansion rapidly towards its suburbs. A concept of large Metropolitan Area developed. Cities became nucleus of suburbs and rural areas. In most of the cases such expansion was not favorable to the relationship between City and its hinterland due to absence of visualization of Compact Sustainable Development. The search for solutions needs to weigh the choices between Rural and Urban based development initiatives. Policymakers need to focus on areas which will give the greatest impact. The impact of development initiatives will spread the significant benefit to all. There is an assumption that development integrates Economic, Social and Environmental considerations with equal weighing. The traditional narrower and almost exclusive focus on economic criteria as the determinant of the level of development is thus re–described and expanded. The Social and Environmental aspects are equally important as Economic aspect to achieve Sustainable Development. The arrangement of opportunities for Public, Semi – Public facilities for its citizen is very much relevant to development. It is responsibility of the administration to provide opportunities for the basic requirement of its inhabitants. Development should be in terms of both Industrial and Agricultural to maintain a balance between city and its hinterland. Thus, policy is to formulate shifting the emphasis away from Economic growth towards Sustainable Human Development. The goal of Policymaker should aim at creating environments in which people’s capabilities can be enhanced by the effective dynamic and adaptable policy. The poverty could not be eradicated simply by increasing income. The improvement of the condition of the people would have to lead to an expansion of basic human capabilities. In this scenario the suburbs/rural areas are considered as environmental burden to the metropolises. A new living has to be encouraged in the suburban or rural. We tend to segregate agriculture from the city and city life, this leads to over consumption, but this urbanism model attempts both these to co–exists and hence create an interesting overlapping of production and consumption network towards sustainable Rurbanism.

Keywords: socio–economic progress, sustainability, social equity, urbanism

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Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

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Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

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Authors: Linda Fellag, Arlene Caney

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E-learning has earned an essential place in academia because it promotes learner autonomy, student engagement, and technological aptitude, and allows for flexible learning. However, despite advantages, educators have been slower to embrace e-learning for ESL and other non-traditional students for fear that such students will not succeed without the direct faculty contact and academic support of face-to-face classrooms. This study aims to determine if a non-traditional student-friendly online course can produce student retention and performance rates that compare favorably with those of students in standard online sections of the same course aimed at traditional college-level students. One Music faculty member is currently collaborating with an English instructor to redesign an online college-level Music Appreciation course for non-traditional college students. At Community College of Philadelphia, Introduction to Music Appreciation was recently designated as one of the few college-level courses that advanced ESL, and developmental English students can take while completing their language studies. Beginning in Fall 2017, the course will be critical for international students who must maintain full-time student status under visa requirements. In its current online format, however, Music Appreciation is designed for traditional college students, and faculty who teach these sections have been reluctant to revise the course to address the needs of non-traditional students. Interestingly, presenters maintain that the online platform is the ideal place to develop language and college readiness skills in at-risk students while maintaining the course's curricular integrity. The two faculty presenters describe how curriculum rather than technology drives the redesign of the digitized music course, and self-study materials, guided assignments, and periodic assessments promote independent learning and comprehension of material. The 'scaffolded' modules allow ESL and developmental English students to build on prior knowledge, preview key vocabulary, discuss content, and complete graded tasks that demonstrate comprehension. Activities and assignments, in turn, enhance college success by allowing students to practice academic reading strategies, writing, speaking, and student-faculty and peer-peer communication and collaboration. The course components facilitate a comparison of student performance and retention in sections of the redesigned and existing online sections of Music Appreciation as well as in previous sections with at-risk students. Indirect, qualitative measures include student attitudinal surveys and evaluations. Direct, quantitative measures include withdrawal rates, tests of disciplinary knowledge, and final grades. The study will compare the outcomes of three cohorts in the two versions of the online course: ESL students, at-risk developmental students, and college-level students. These data will also be compared with retention and student outcomes data of the three cohorts in f2f Music Appreciation, which permitted non-traditional student enrollment from 1998-2005. During this eight-year period, the presenter addressed the problems of at-risk students by adding language and college success support, which resulted in strong retention and outcomes. The presenters contend that the redesigned course will produce favorable outcomes among all three cohorts because it contains components which proved successful with at-risk learners in f2f sections of the course. Results of their study will be published in 2019 after the redesigned online course has met for two semesters.

Keywords: college readiness, e-learning, music appreciation, online courses

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Authors: Pibool Waijittragum

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This paper has its objectives to reveal contents and personality suitable to women’s newspapers. The research methodology employed in this study is the questionnaire which is derived from a literature review related to newspapers, graphic elements method for print media design and 12 sample sizes of different daily newspapers. In order to acquire an in-depth understanding and comprehensible view of desirable for a women’s newspaper design, graphic elements that related to that personality as well as other preferable elements for a women’s newspaper, including seven editorial Many Thai newspapers were offer a women’s documentary and column space. With its feminine looks, most of them appeared with warm tones and friendly mood through their headlines, contents, illustrations and graphics. The study found that most desirable personalities for a women’s newspaper design in Thailand are: Modern, Chic and Natural. Each personality has significant graphic elements as follows: 1. Modern: significant elements of modern personality comprises of the composition with graduation pattern which creates attractiveness by using an anomalous alignment layout grid and outstanding structure to create focal points and dynamic movement. Dark to black color that has narrowed, limited hue coupled with bright color tones. The round shape of the Thai font style was suitable for this concept. Such Thai fonts have harmonious proportion and consistent stroke with the urban-polite look. 2. Chic: significant elements of chic personality comprises of the proper composition with distinctive scale, using rhythmic repetition and a contrast of scale to draw in reader attention. Vivid and bright color tones with extensive hues coupled with similar color tones and round shape of the Thai font style with a light stroke and consistent line. 3. Natural: significant elements of natural personality comprises of the proper composition using rhythmic repetition that creates a focal point through striking images and harmonious perspective. Warm color tones with restricted hues that appear to look natural. Duo tone color was suitable through the gradually increasing gradient. The Thai style with hand writing font was suitable through the inconsistent stroke. There are 10 types of daily content that were revealed to be the most desirable for Thai women readers, these are: Daily News, Economics News, Education News, Entertainment News, International news, Political News, Public Health News, Scientific News, Social News and Sports News. As well, there are 16 topics identified as very desirable for Thai women readers, such as: Art and Culture, Automobile, Classified, Special Scoop, Editorial, Advertisement, Entertainment, Health and Quality of Life, History, Horoscope, Lifestyle and Fashion, Literature, Nature - Environment and Tourism, Night Life, Stars and Jet Set Gossip, Women’s Issue.

Keywords: women behaviors, feminine looks, newspaper design, news content

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Authors: Harry Einhorn

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This paper aims to explore the integration of Buddhism into educational settings with the goal of fostering the holistic development of children. By incorporating Buddhist principles and practices, educators can create a nurturing environment that cultivates wisdom, compassion, and ethical values in children. The teachings of Buddhism provide valuable insights into mindfulness, compassion, and critical thinking, which can be adapted and applied to educational curricula to enhance children's intellectual, emotional, and moral growth. One of the fundamental aspects of Buddhist philosophy that is particularly relevant to education is the concept of mindfulness. By introducing mindfulness practices, such as meditation and breathing exercises, children can learn to cultivate present-moment awareness, develop emotional resilience, and enhance their ability to concentrate and focus. These skills are essential for effective learning and can contribute to reducing stress and promoting overall well-being in children. Mindfulness practices can also teach children how to manage their emotions and thoughts, promoting self-regulation and creating a positive classroom environment. In addition to mindfulness, Buddhism emphasizes the cultivation of compassion and empathy toward all living beings. Integrating teachings on kindness, empathy, and ethical behavior into the educational framework can help children develop a deep sense of interconnectedness and social responsibility. By engaging children in activities that promote empathy and encourage acts of kindness, such as community service projects and cooperative learning, educators can foster the development of compassionate individuals who are actively engaged in creating a more harmonious and compassionate society. Moreover, Buddhist teachings encourage critical thinking and inquiry, which are crucial skills for intellectual development. By introducing children to fundamental Buddhist concepts such as impermanence, interdependence, and the nature of suffering, educators can engage them in philosophical reflections and broaden their perspectives on life. These teachings promote open-mindedness, curiosity, and a deeper understanding of the interconnectedness of all things. Through the exploration of these concepts, children can develop critical thinking skills and gain insights into the complexities of the world, enabling them to navigate challenges with wisdom and discernment. While integrating Buddhism into education requires sensitivity, cultural awareness, and respect for diverse beliefs and backgrounds, it holds great potential for nurturing the holistic development of children. By incorporating mindfulness practices, fostering compassion and empathy, and promoting critical thinking, Buddhism can contribute to the creation of a more compassionate, inclusive, and harmonious educational environment. This integration can shape well-rounded individuals who are equipped with the necessary skills and qualities to navigate the complexities of the modern world with wisdom, compassion, and resilience. In conclusion, the integration of Buddhism into education offers a valuable framework for cultivating wisdom, compassion, and ethical values in children. By incorporating mindfulness, compassion, and critical thinking into educational practices, educators can create a supportive environment that promotes children's holistic development. By nurturing these qualities, Buddhism can help shape individuals who are not only academically proficient but also morally and ethically responsible, contributing to a more compassionate and harmonious society.

Keywords: Buddhism, education, children, mindfulness

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Authors: Azza Zagouani

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Introduction: In the work of William Faulkner, characters often evade the boundaries and categories of patriarchal standards of order. Female characters like Lena Grove and Joanna Burden cross thresholds in attempts to gain liberation, while others fail to do so. They stand as non-conformists and refuse established patterns of feminine behavior, such as marriage and motherhood after. They refute submissiveness, domesticity and abstinence to reshape their own identities. The presence of independent and creative women represents new, unconventional images of female subjectivity. This paper will examine the structures of submission and oppression faced by Lena and Joanna, and will show how, in the end, they reshape themselves and their identities, and disrupt or even destroy patriarchal structures. Objectives: Participants will understand through the examples of Lena Grove and Joanna Burden that female subjectivities are constructions, and are constantly subject to change. Approaches: Two approaches will be used in the analysis of the subjectivity formation of Lena Grove and Joanna Burden. Following the arguments propounded by Judith Butler, We explore the ways in which Lena Grove maneuvers around the restrictions and the limitations imposed on her without any physical or psychological violence. She does this by properly performing the roles prescribed to her gendered body. Her repetitious performances of these roles are both the ones that are constructed to confine women and the vehicle for her travel. Her performance parodies the prescriptive roles and thereby reveals that they are cultural constructions. Second, We will explore the argument propounded by Kristeva that subjectivity is always in a state of development because we are always changing in context with changing circumstances. For example, in Light in August, Lena Grove changes the way she defines herself in light of the events of the novel. Also, Kristeva talks about stages of development: the semiotic stage and the symbolic stage. In Light in August, Joanna shows different levels of subjectivity as time passes. Early in the novel, Joanna is very connected to her upbringing. This suggests Kristeva’s concept of the semiotic, in which the daughter identifies closely to her parents. Kristeva relates the semiotic to a strong daughter/mother connection, but in the novel it is strong daughter/father/grandfather identification instead. Then as Joanna becomes sexually involved with Joe, she breaks off, and seems to go into an identity crisis. To me, this represents Kristeva’s move from the semiotic to the symbolic. When Joanna returns to a religious fanaticism, she is returning to a semiotic state. Detailed outline: At the outset of this paper, We will investigate the subjugation of women: social constraints, and the formation of the feminine identity in Light in August. Then, through the examples of Lena Grove’s attempt to cross the boundaries of community moralities and Joanna Burden’s refusal to submit to the standards of submissiveness, domesticity, and obstinance, We will reveal the tension between progressive conceptions of individual freedom and social constraints that limit this freedom. In the second part of the paper, We will underscore the rhetoric of femininity in Light in August: subjugation through naming. The implications of both female’s names offer a powerful contrast between the two different forms of subjectivity. Conclusion: Through Faulkner’s novel, We demonstrate that female subjectivity is an open-ended issue. The spiral shaping of its form maintains its characteristics as a process changing according to different circumstances.

Keywords: female subjectivity, Faulkner’s light August, gender, sexuality, diversity

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Authors: Fouzia Khanam, Belal Hossain, Kaosar Afsana, Mahfuzar Rahman

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Aim: Although cardiovascular diseases (CVD) has already been recognized as a major cause of death in developed countries, its prevalence is rising in developing countries as well, and engendering a challenge for the health sector. Bangladesh has experienced an epidemiological transition from communicable to non-communicable diseases over the last few decades. So, the rising prevalence of CVD and its risk factors are imposing a major problem for the country. We aimed to examine the prevalence of CVDs and socioeconomic and lifestyle factors related to it from a population-based survey. Methods: The data used for this study were collected as a part of a large-scale cross-sectional study conducted to explore the overall health status of children, mothers and senior citizens of Bangladesh. Multistage cluster random sampling procedure was applied by considering unions as clusters and households as the primary sampling unit to select a total of 11,428 households for the base survey. Present analysis encompassed 12338 respondents of ≥ 35 years, selected from both rural areas and urban slums of the country. Socio-economic, demographic and lifestyle information were obtained through individual by a face-to-face interview which was noted in ODK platform. And height, weight, blood pressure and glycosuria were measured using standardized methods. Chi-square test, Univariate modified Poisson regression model, and multivariate modified Poisson regression model were done using STATA software (version 13.0) for analysis. Results: Overall, the prevalence of CVD was 4.51%, of which 1.78% had stroke and 3.17% suffered from heart diseases. Male had higher prevalence of stroke (2.20%) than their counterparts (1.37%). Notably, thirty percent of respondents had high blood pressure and 5% population had diabetes and more than half of the population was pre-hypertensive. Additionally, 20% were overweight, 77% were smoker or consumed smokeless tobacco and 28% of respondents were physically inactive. Eighty-two percent of respondents took extra salt while eating and 29% of respondents had deprived sleep. Furthermore, the prevalence of risk factor of CVD varied according to gender. Women had a higher prevalence of overweight, obesity and diabetes. Women were also less physically active compared to men and took more extra salt. Smoking was lower in women compared to men. Moreover, women slept less compared to their counterpart. After adjusting confounders in modified Poisson regression model, age, gender, occupation, wealth quintile, BMI, extra salt intake, daily sleep, tiredness, diabetes, and hypertension remained as risk factors for CVD. Conclusion: The prevalence of CVD is significant in Bangladesh, and there is an evidence of rising trend for its risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes especially in older population, women and high-income groups. Therefore, in this current epidemiological transition, immediate public health intervention is warranted to address the overwhelming CVD risk.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, hypertension, stroke

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Authors: Sergio A. Bernal-Chavez, Sergio Alcalá-Alcalá, Doris A. Cerecedo-Mercado, Adriana Ganem-Rondero

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The prevalence of people with chronic wounds has increased dramatically by many factors including smoking, obesity and chronic diseases, such as diabetes, that can slow the healing process and increase the risk of becoming chronic. Because of this situation, the improvement of chronic wound treatments is a necessity, which has led to the scientific community to focus on improving the effectiveness of current therapies and the development of new treatments. The wound formation is a physiological complex process, which is characterized by an inflammatory stage with the presence of proinflammatory cells that create a proteolytic microenvironment during the healing process, which includes the degradation of important growth factors and cytokines. This decrease of growth factors and cytokines provides an interesting strategy for wound healing if they are administered externally. The use of nanometric drug delivery systems, such as polymer nanoparticles (NP), also offers an interesting alternative around dermal systems. An interesting strategy would be to propose a formulation based on a thermosensitive hydrogel loaded with polymeric nanoparticles that allows the inclusion and application of a platelet lysate (PL) on damaged skin, with the aim of promoting wound healing. In this work, NP were prepared by a double emulsion-solvent evaporation technique, using polylactic-co-glycolic acid (PLGA) as biodegradable polymer. Firstly, an aqueous solution of PL was emulsified into a PLGA organic solution, previously prepared in dichloromethane (DCM). Then, this disperse system (W/O) was poured into a polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) solution to get the double emulsion (W/O/W), finally the DCM was evaporated by magnetic stirring resulting in the NP formation containing PL. Once the NP were obtained, these systems were characterized by morphology, particle size, Z-potential, encapsulation efficiency (%EE), physical stability, infrared spectrum, calorimetric studies (DSC) and in vitro release profile. The optimized nanoparticles were included in a thermosensitive gel formulation of Pluronic® F-127. The gel was prepared by the cold method at 4 °C and 20% of polymer concentration. Viscosity, sol-gel phase transition, time of no flow solid-gel at wound temperature, changes in particle size by temperature-effect using dynamic light scattering (DLS), occlusive effect, gel degradation, infrared spectrum and micellar point by DSC were evaluated in all gel formulations. PLGA NP of 267 ± 10.5 nm and Z-potential of -29.1 ± 1 mV were obtained. TEM micrographs verified the size of NP and evidenced their spherical shape. The %EE for the system was around 99%. Thermograms and in infrared spectra mark the presence of PL in NP. The systems did not show significant changes in the parameters mentioned above, during the stability studies. Regarding the gel formulation, the transition sol-gel occurred at 28 °C with a time of no flow solid-gel of 7 min at 33°C (common wound temperature). Calorimetric, DLS and infrared studies corroborated the physical properties of a thermosensitive gel, such as the micellar point. In conclusion, the thermosensitive gel described in this work, contains therapeutic amounts of PL and fulfills the technological properties to be used in damaged skin, with potential application in wound healing and tissue regeneration.

Keywords: growth factors, polymeric nanoparticles, thermosensitive hydrogels, tissue regeneration

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Authors: Awatef Ahmed Ben Ramadan, Aqsa Arshad

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Background: There is a huge Muslim migration movement to North America and Europe for several reasons, primarily refuge from war areas and partly to search for better work and educational chances. There are always concerns regarding first-Generation Immigrant women's health and computer literacy, an adequate understanding of the health systems, and the use of the existing healthcare technology and services effectively and efficiently. Language proficiency level, preference for cultural and traditional remedies, socioeconomic factors, fear of stereotyping, limited accessibility to health services, and general unfamiliarity with the existing health services and resources are familiar variables among these women. Aims: The current study aims to assess the health and digital literacy of first-generation Muslim women in Atlanta city. Also, the study aims to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic has encouraged the use of health information technology and increased technology awareness among the targeted women. Methods: The study design is cross-sectional correlational research. The study will be conducted to produce preliminary results that the investigators want to have to supplement an NIH grant application about leveraging information technology to reduce the health inequalities amongst the first-generation immigrant Muslim women in Atlanta City. The investigators will collect the study data in two phases using different tools. Phase one was conducted in June 2022; the investigators used tools to measure health and digital literacy amongst 42 first-generation immigrant Muslim women. Phase two was conducted in November 2022; the investigators measured the Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice (KAP) of using health information technology such as telehealth from a sample of 45 first-generation Muslim immigrant women in Atlanta; in addition, the investigators measured how the current pandemic has affected their KAP to use telemedicine and telehealth services. Both phases' study participants were recruited using convenience sampling methodology. The investigators collected around 40 of 18 years old or older first-generation Muslim immigrant women for both study phases. The study excluded Immigrants who hold work visas and second-generation immigrants. Results: At the point of submitting this abstract, the investigators are still analyzing the study data to produce preliminary results to apply for an NIH grant entitled "Leveraging Health Information Technology (Health IT) to Address and Reduce Health Care Disparities (R01 Clinical Trial Optional)". This research will be the first step of a comprehensive research project to assess and measure health and digital literacy amongst a vulnerable community group. The targeted group might have different points of view from the U.S.-born inhabitants on how to: promote their health, gain healthy lifestyles and habits, screen for diseases, adhere to health treatment and follow-up plans, perceive the importance of using available and affordable technology to communicate with their providers and improve their health, and help in making serious decisions for their health. The investigators aim to develop an educational and instructional health mobile application considering the language and cultural factors that affect immigrants' ability to access different health and social support sources, know their health rights and obligations in their communities, and improve their health behavior and behavior lifestyles.

Keywords: first-generation immigrant Muslim women, telehealth, COVID-19 pandemic, health information technology, health and digital literacy

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Authors: Sagar Saroha, Sawan S. Sinha, Sunil Lakshmipathy

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Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model is the popular computational tool for prediction of turbulent flows. Being computationally less expensive as compared to direct numerical simulation (DNS), RANS has received wide acceptance in industry and research community as well. However, for high Reynolds number flows, the traditional RANS approach based on the Boussinesq hypothesis is incapacitated to capture all the essential flow characteristics, and thus, its performance is restricted in high Reynolds number flows of practical interest. RANS performance turns out to be inadequate in regimes like flow over curved surfaces, flows with rapid changes in the mean strain rate, duct flows involving secondary streamlines and three-dimensional separated flows. In the recent decade, partially averaged Navier-Stokes (PANS) methodology has gained acceptability among seamless bridging methods of turbulence- placed between DNS and RANS. PANS methodology, being a scale resolving bridging method, is inherently more suitable than RANS for simulating turbulent flows. The superior ability of PANS method has been demonstrated for some cases like swirling flows, high-speed mixing environment, and high Reynolds number turbulent flows. In our work, we intend to evaluate PANS in case of separated turbulent flows past bluff bodies -which is of broad aerodynamic research and industrial application. PANS equations, being derived from base RANS, continue to inherit the inadequacies from the parent RANS model based on linear eddy-viscosity model (LEVM) closure. To enhance PANS’ capabilities for simulating separated flows, the shortcomings of the LEVM closure need to be addressed. Inabilities of the LEVMs have inspired the development of non-linear eddy viscosity models (NLEVM). To explore the potential improvement in PANS performance, in our study we evaluate the PANS behavior in conjugation with NLEVM. Our work can be categorized into three significant steps: (i) Extraction of PANS version of NLEVM from RANS model, (ii) testing the model in the homogeneous turbulence environment and (iii) application and evaluation of the model in the canonical case of separated non-homogeneous flow field (flow past prismatic bodies and bodies of revolution at high Reynolds number). PANS version of NLEVM shall be derived and implemented in OpenFOAM -an open source solver. Homogeneous flows evaluation will comprise the study of the influence of the PANS’ filter-width control parameter on the turbulent stresses; the homogeneous analysis performed over typical velocity fields and asymptotic analysis of Reynolds stress tensor. Non-homogeneous flow case will include the study of mean integrated quantities and various instantaneous flow field features including wake structures. Performance of PANS + NLEVM shall be compared against the LEVM based PANS and LEVM based RANS. This assessment will contribute to significant improvement of the predictive ability of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools in massively separated turbulent flows past bluff bodies.

Keywords: bridging methods of turbulence, high Re-CFD, non-linear PANS, separated turbulent flows

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Authors: Jose CanIzares

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In the last decades, resilience has received much attention in relation to understanding and managing new forms of risk, especially in the context of urban adaptation to climate change. There are abundant concerns, however, on how to best interpret resilience and related ideas, and on whether they can guide ethically appropriate risk-related or adaptation efforts. Narrative creation and framing are critical steps in shaping public discussion and policy in large-scale interventions, since they favor or inhibit early decision and interpretation habits, which can be morally sensitive and then become persistent on time. This article adds to such framing process by contesting a conventional narrative on resilience and offering an alternative one. Conventionally, present ideas on resilience are traced to the work of ecologist C. S. Holling, especially to his article Resilience and Stability in Ecosystems. This article is usually portrayed as a contribution of complex systems thinking to theoretical ecology, where Holling appeals to resilience in order to challenge received views on ecosystem stability and the diversity-stability hypothesis. In this regard, resilience is construed as a “purely scientific”, precise and descriptive concept, denoting a complex property that allows ecosystems to persist, or to maintain functions, after disturbance. Yet, these formal features of resilience supposedly changed with Holling’s later work in the 90s, where, it is argued, Holling begun to use resilience as a more pragmatic “boundary term”, aimed at unifying transdisciplinary research about risks, ecological or otherwise, and at articulating public debate and governance strategies on the issue. In the conventional story, increased vagueness and degrees of normativity are the price to pay for this conceptual shift, which has made the term more widely usable, but also incompatible with scientific purposes and morally problematic (if not completely objectionable). This paper builds on a detailed analysis of Holling’s early work to propose an alternative narrative. The study will show that the “complexity turn” has often entangled theoretical and pragmatic aims. Accordingly, Holling’s primary aim was to fight what he termed “pathologies of natural resource management” or “pathologies of command and control management”, and so, the terms of his reform of ecosystem science are partly subordinate to the details of his proposal for reforming the management sciences. As regards resilience, Holling used it as a polysemous, ambiguous and normative term: sometimes, as an instrumental value that is closely related to various stability concepts; other times, and more crucially, as an intrinsic value and a tool for attacking efficiency and instrumentalism in management. This narrative reveals the limitations of its conventional alternative and has several practical advantages. It captures well the structure and purposes of Holling’s project, and the various roles of resilience in it. It helps to link Holling’s early work with other philosophical and ideological shifts at work in the 70s. It highlights the currency of Holling’s early work for present research and action in fields such as risk and climate adaptation. And it draws attention to morally relevant aspects of resilience that the conventional narrative neglects.

Keywords: resilience, complexity turn, risk management, positivistic, framing

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Authors: K. Bencherif, M. Bellifa

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The expected climatic changes in North Africa are the increase of both intensity and frequencies of the summer droughts and a reduction in water availability during growing season. The exiting coppices and forest formations in the national park of Tlemcen are dominated by holm oak, zen oak and cork oak. These opened-fragmented structures don’t seem enough strong so to hope durable protection against climate change. According to the observed climatic tendency, the objective is to analyze the climatic context and its evolution taking into account the eventual behaving of the oak species during the next 20-30 years on one side and the landscaped context in relation with the most adequate sylvicultural models to choose and especially in relation with human activities on another side. The study methodology is based on Climatic synthesis and Floristic and spatial analysis. Meteorological data of the decade 1989-2009 are used to characterize the current climate. An another approach, based on dendrochronological analysis of a 120 years sample Aleppo pine stem growing in the park, is used so to analyze the climate evolution during one century. Results on the climate evolution during the 50 years obtained through climatic predictive models are exploited so to predict the climate tendency in the park. Spatially, in each forest unit of the Park, stratified sampling is achieved so to reduce the degree of heterogeneity and to easily delineate different stands using the GPS. Results from precedent study are used to analyze the anthropogenic factor considering the forecasts for the period 2025-2100, the number of warm days with a temperature over 25°C would increase from 30 to 70. The monthly mean temperatures of the maxima’s (M) and the minima’s (m) would pass respectively from 30.5°C to 33°C and from 2.3°C to 4.8°C. With an average drop of 25%, precipitations will be reduced to 411.37 mm. These new data highlight the importance of the risk fire and the water stress witch would affect the vegetation and the regeneration process. Spatial analysis highlights the forest and the agricultural dimensions of the park compared to the urban habitat and bare soils. Maps show both fragmentation state and forest surface regression (50% of total surface). At the level of the park, fires affected already all types of covers creating low structures with various densities. On the silvi cultural plan, Zen oak form in some places pure stands and this invasion must be considered as a natural tendency where Zen oak becomes the structuring specie. Climate-related changes have nothing to do with the real impact that South-Mediterranean forests are undergoing because human constraints they support. Nevertheless, hardwoods stand of oak in the national park of Tlemcen will face up to unexpected climate changes such as changing rainfall regime associated with a lengthening of the period of water stress, to heavy rainfall and/or to sudden cold snaps. Faced with these new conditions, management based on mixed uneven aged high forest method promoting the more dynamic specie could be an appropriate measure.

Keywords: global warming, mediterranean forest, oak shrub-lands, Tlemcen

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