Search results for: transport generalized cost
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8136

Search results for: transport generalized cost

8076 Modeling of Maximum Rainfall Using Poisson-Generalized Pareto Distribution in Kigali, Rwanda

Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye

Abstract:

Extreme rainfall events have caused significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure, disruption of human activities, injury, and loss of life. They also have significant social, economic, and environmental consequences because they considerably damage urban as well as rural areas. Early detection of extreme maximum rainfall helps to implement strategies and measures, before they occur, hence mitigating the consequences. Extreme value theory has been used widely in modeling extreme rainfall and in various disciplines, such as financial markets, the insurance industry, failure cases. Climatic extremes have been analyzed by using either generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which provides evidence of the importance of modeling extreme rainfall from different regions of the world. In this paper, we focused on Peak Over Thresholds approach, where the Poisson-generalized Pareto distribution is considered as the proper distribution for the study of the exceedances. This research also considers the use of the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution with a Poisson model for arrivals to describe peaks over a threshold. The research used statistical techniques to fit models that used to predict extreme rainfall in Kigali. The results indicate that the proposed Poisson-GP distribution provides a better fit to maximum monthly rainfall data. Further, the Poisson-GP models are able to estimate various return levels. The research also found a slow increase in return levels for maximum monthly rainfall for higher return periods, and further, the intervals are increasingly wider as the return period is increasing.

Keywords: exceedances, extreme value theory, generalized Pareto distribution, Poisson generalized Pareto distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 104
8075 Sustainable Development Variables to Assess Transport Infrastructure in Remote Destinations

Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

Abstract:

The assessment variables of the accessibility and the sustainability of access infrastructure for remote regions may vary significant by location and a wide range of factors may affect the decision process. In this paper, the environmental disturbance implications of transportation system to key demand and supply variables impact the economic system in remote destination are descripted. According to a systemic approach, the key sustainability variables deals with decision making process that have to be included in strategic plan for the critical transport infrastructure development and their relationship to regional socioeconomic system are presented. The application deals with the development of railway in remote destinations, where the traditional CBA not include the external cost generated by the environmental impacts that may have a range of diverse impacts on transport infrastructure and services. The analysis output provides key messages to decision and policy makers towards sustainable development of transport infrastructure, especially for remote destinations where accessibility is a key factor of regional economic development and social stability. The key conclusion could be essential useful for relevant applications in remote regions in the same latitude.

Keywords: sustainable development in remote regions, transport infrastructure, strategic planning, sustainability variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 313
8074 Generalized Rough Sets Applied to Graphs Related to Urban Problems

Authors: Mihai Rebenciuc, Simona Mihaela Bibic

Abstract:

Branch of modern mathematics, graphs represent instruments for optimization and solving practical applications in various fields such as economic networks, engineering, network optimization, the geometry of social action, generally, complex systems including contemporary urban problems (path or transport efficiencies, biourbanism, & c.). In this paper is studied the interconnection of some urban network, which can lead to a simulation problem of a digraph through another digraph. The simulation is made univoc or more general multivoc. The concepts of fragment and atom are very useful in the study of connectivity in the digraph that is simulation - including an alternative evaluation of k- connectivity. Rough set approach in (bi)digraph which is proposed in premier in this paper contribute to improved significantly the evaluation of k-connectivity. This rough set approach is based on generalized rough sets - basic facts are presented in this paper.

Keywords: (bi)digraphs, rough set theory, systems of interacting agents, complex systems

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8073 Innovative Methods of Improving Train Formation in Freight Transport

Authors: Jaroslav Masek, Juraj Camaj, Eva Nedeliakova

Abstract:

The paper is focused on the operational model for transport the single wagon consignments on railway network by using two different models of train formation. The paper gives an overview of possibilities of improving the quality of transport services. Paper deals with two models used in problematic of train formatting - time continuously and time discrete. By applying these models in practice, the transport company can guarantee a higher quality of service and expect increasing of transport performance. The models are also applicable into others transport networks. The models supplement a theoretical problem of train formation by new ways of looking to affecting the organization of wagon flows.

Keywords: train formation, wagon flows, marshalling yard, railway technology

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8072 On Demand Transport: Feasibility Study - Local Needs and Capabilities within the Oran Wilaya

Authors: Nadjet Brahmia

Abstract:

The evolution of urban forms, the new aspects of mobility, the ways of life and economic models make public transport conventional collective low-performing on the majority of largest Algerian cities, particularly in the west of Algeria. On the other side, the information and communication technologies (ICT) open new eventualities to develop a new mode of transport which brings together both the tenders offered by the public service collective and those of the particular vehicle, suitable for urban requirements, social and environmental. Like the concrete examples made in the international countries in terms of on-demand transport systems (ODT) more particularly in the developed countries, this article has for objective the opportunity analysis to establish a service of ODT at the level of a few towns of Oran Wilaya, such a service will be subsequently spread on the totality of the Wilaya if not on the whole of Algeria. In this context, we show the different existing means of transport in the current network whose aim to illustrate the points of insufficiency accented in the present transport system, then we discuss the solutions that may exhibit a service of ODT to the problem studied all around the transport sector, to carry at the end to highlight the capabilities of ODT replying to the transformation of mobilities, this in the light of well-defined cases.

Keywords: mobility, on-demand transport, public transport collective, transport system

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8071 Improving the Quality of Transport Management Services with Fuzzy Signatures

Authors: Csaba I. Hencz, István Á. Harmati

Abstract:

Nowadays the significance of road transport is gradually increasing. All transport companies are working in the same external environment where the speed of transport is defined by traffic rules. The main objective is to accelerate the speed of service and it is only dependent on the individual abilities of the managing members. These operational control units make decisions quickly (in a typically experiential and/or intuitive way). For this reason, support for these decisions is an important task. Our goal is to create a decision support model based on fuzzy signatures that can assist the work of operational management automatically. If the model sets parameters properly, the management of transport could be more economical and efficient.

Keywords: freight transport, decision support, information handling, fuzzy methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 228
8070 Reliability-Based Life-Cycle Cost Model for Engineering Systems

Authors: Reza Lotfalian, Sudarshan Martins, Peter Radziszewski

Abstract:

The effect of reliability on life-cycle cost, including initial and maintenance cost of a system is studied. The failure probability of a component is used to calculate the average maintenance cost during the operation cycle of the component. The standard deviation of the life-cycle cost is also calculated as an error measure for the average life-cycle cost. As a numerical example, the model is used to study the average life cycle cost of an electric motor.

Keywords: initial cost, life-cycle cost, maintenance cost, reliability

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8069 VaR or TCE: Explaining the Preferences of Regulators

Authors: Silvia Faroni, Olivier Le Courtois, Krzysztof Ostaszewski

Abstract:

While a lot of research concentrates on the merits of VaR and TCE, which are the two most classic risk indicators used by financial institutions, little has been written on explaining why regulators favor the choice of VaR or TCE in their set of rules. In this paper, we investigate the preferences of regulators with the aim of understanding why, for instance, a VaR with a given confidence level is ultimately retained. Further, this paper provides equivalence rules that explain how a given choice of VaR can be equivalent to a given choice of TCE. Then, we introduce a new risk indicator that extends TCE by providing a more versatile weighting of the constituents of probability distribution tails. All of our results are illustrated using the generalized Pareto distribution.

Keywords: generalized pareto distribution, generalized tail conditional expectation, regulator preferences, risk measure

Procedia PDF Downloads 134
8068 Improved Ohmic Contact by Li Doping in Electron Transport Layers

Authors: G. Sivakumar, T. Pratyusha, D. Gupta, W. Shen

Abstract:

To get ohmic contact between the cathode and organic semiconductor, transport layers are introduced between the active layer and the electrodes. Generally zinc oxide or titanium dioxide are used as electron transport layer. When electron transport layer is doped with lithium, the resultant film exhibited superior electronic properties, which enables faster electron transport. Doping is accomplished by heat treatment of films with Lithium salts. Li-doped films. We fabricated organic solar cell using PTB7(poly(3-hexylthiopene-2,5- diyl):PCBM(phenyl-C61-butyric acid methyl ester) and found that the solar cells prepared using Li doped films had better performance in terms of efficiency when compared to the undoped transport layers.

Keywords: electron transport layer, higher efficiency, lithium doping, ohmic contact

Procedia PDF Downloads 476
8067 The Generalized Pareto Distribution as a Model for Sequential Order Statistics

Authors: Mahdy ‎Esmailian, Mahdi ‎Doostparast, Ahmad ‎Parsian

Abstract:

‎In this article‎, ‎sequential order statistics (SOS) censoring type II samples coming from the generalized Pareto distribution are considered‎. ‎Maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the unknown parameters are derived on the basis of the available multiple SOS data‎. ‎Necessary conditions for existence and uniqueness of the derived ML estimates are given‎. Due to complexity in the proposed likelihood function‎, ‎a useful re-parametrization is suggested‎. ‎For illustrative purposes‎, ‎a Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted and an illustrative example is analysed‎.

Keywords: bayesian estimation‎, generalized pareto distribution‎, ‎maximum likelihood estimation‎, sequential order statistics

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8066 Resolving Urban Mobility Issues through Network Restructuring of Urban Mass Transport

Authors: Aditya Purohit, Neha Bansal

Abstract:

Unplanned urbanization and multidirectional sprawl of the cities have resulted in increased motorization and deteriorating transport conditions like traffic congestion, longer commuting, pollution, increased carbon footprint, and above all increased fatalities. In order to overcome these problems, various practices have been adopted including– promoting and implementing mass transport; traffic junction channelization; smart transport etc. However, these methods are found to be primarily focusing on vehicular mobility rather than people accessibility. With this research gap, this paper tries to resolve the mobility issues for Ahmedabad city in India, which being the economic capital Gujarat state has a huge commuter and visitor inflow. This research aims to resolve the traffic congestion and urban mobility issues focusing on Gujarat State Regional Transport Corporation (GSRTC) for the city of Ahmadabad by analyzing the existing operations and network structure of GSRTC followed by finding possibilities of integrating it with other modes of urban transport. The network restructuring (NR) methodology is used with appropriate variations, based on commuter demand and growth pattern of the city. To do these ‘scenarios’ based on priority issues (using 12 parameters) and their best possible solution, are established after route network analysis for 2700 population sample of 20 traffic junctions/nodes across the city. Approximately 5% sample (of passenger inflow) at each node is considered using random stratified sampling technique two scenarios are – Scenario 1: Resolving mobility issues by use of Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) in joint venture to GSRTC and Private Operators for establishing feeder service, which shall provide a transfer service for passenger for movement from inner city area to identified peripheral terminals; and Scenario 2: Augmenting existing mass transport services such as BRTS and AMTS for using them as feeder service to the identified peripheral terminals. Each of these has now been analyzed for the best suitability/feasibility in network restructuring. A desire-line diagram is constructed using this analysis which indicated that on an average 62% of designated GSRTC routes are overlapping with mass transportation service routes of BRTS and AMTS in the city. This has resulted in duplication of bus services causing traffic congestion especially in the Central Bus Station (CBS). Terminating GSRTC services on the periphery of the city is found to be the best restructuring network proposal. This limits the GSRTC buses at city fringe area and prevents them from entering into the city core areas. These end-terminals of GSRTC are integrated with BRTS and AMTS services which help in segregating intra-state and inter-state bus services. The research concludes that absence of integrated multimodal transport network resulted in complexity of transport access to the commuters. As a further scope of research comparing and understanding of value of access time in total travel time and its implication on generalized cost on trip and how it varies city wise may be taken up.

Keywords: mass transportation, multi-modal integration, network restructuring, travel behavior, urban transport

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8065 A Computational Study of the Electron Transport in HgCdTe Bulk Semiconductor

Authors: N. Dahbi, M. Daoudi

Abstract:

This paper deals with the use of computational method based on Monte Carlo simulation in order to investigate the transport phenomena of the electron in HgCdTe narrow band gap semiconductor. Via this method we can evaluate the time dependence of the transport parameters: velocity, energy and mobility of electrons through matter (HgCdTe).

Keywords: Monte Carlo, transport parameters, HgCdTe, computational mechanics

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8064 A New Fixed Point Theorem for Almost θ-Contraction

Authors: Hichem Ramoul

Abstract:

In this work, we introduce a new type of contractive maps and we establish a new fixed point theorem for the class of almost θ-contractions (more general than the class of almost contractions) in a complete generalized metric space. The major novelty of our work is to prove a new fixed point result by weakening some hypotheses imposed on the function θ which will change completely the classical technique used in the literature review to prove fixed point theorems for almost θ-contractions in a complete generalized metric space.

Keywords: almost contraction, almost θ-contraction, fixed point, generalized metric space

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8063 Integrating High-Performance Transport Modes into Transport Networks: A Multidimensional Impact Analysis

Authors: Sarah Pfoser, Lisa-Maria Putz, Thomas Berger

Abstract:

In the EU, the transport sector accounts for roughly one fourth of the total greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, the transport sector is one of the main contributors of greenhouse gas emissions. Climate protection targets aim to reduce the negative effects of greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. climate change, global warming) worldwide. Achieving a modal shift to foster environmentally friendly modes of transport such as rail and inland waterways is an important strategy to fulfill the climate protection targets. The present paper goes beyond these conventional transport modes and reflects upon currently emerging high-performance transport modes that yield the potential of complementing future transport systems in an efficient way. It will be defined which properties describe high-performance transport modes, which types of technology are included and what is their potential to contribute to a sustainable future transport network. The first step of this paper is to compile state-of-the-art information about high-performance transport modes to find out which technologies are currently emerging. A multidimensional impact analysis will be conducted afterwards to evaluate which of the technologies is most promising. This analysis will be performed from a spatial, social, economic and environmental perspective. Frequently used instruments such as cost-benefit analysis and SWOT analysis will be applied for the multidimensional assessment. The estimations for the analysis will be derived based on desktop research and discussions in an interdisciplinary team of researchers. For the purpose of this work, high-performance transport modes are characterized as transport modes with very fast and very high throughput connections that could act as efficient extension to the existing transport network. The recently proposed hyperloop system represents a potential high-performance transport mode which might be an innovative supplement for the current transport networks. The idea of hyperloops is that persons and freight are shipped in a tube at more than airline speed. Another innovative technology consists in drones for freight transport. Amazon already tests drones for their parcel shipments, they aim for delivery times of 30 minutes. Drones can, therefore, be considered as high-performance transport modes as well. The Trans-European Transport Networks program (TEN-T) addresses the expansion of transport grids in Europe and also includes high speed rail connections to better connect important European cities. These services should increase competitiveness of rail and are intended to replace aviation, which is known to be a polluting transport mode. In this sense, the integration of high-performance transport modes as described above facilitates the objectives of the TEN-T program. The results of the multidimensional impact analysis will reveal potential future effects of the integration of high-performance modes into transport networks. Building on that, a recommendation on the following (research) steps can be given which are necessary to ensure the most efficient implementation and integration processes.

Keywords: drones, future transport networks, high performance transport modes, hyperloops, impact analysis

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8062 A Local Invariant Generalized Hough Transform Method for Integrated Circuit Visual Positioning

Authors: Wei Feilong

Abstract:

In this study, an local invariant generalized Houghtransform (LI-GHT) method is proposed for integrated circuit (IC) visual positioning. The original generalized Hough transform (GHT) is robust to external noise; however, it is not suitable for visual positioning of IC chips due to the four-dimensionality (4D) of parameter space which leads to the substantial storage requirement and high computational complexity. The proposed LI-GHT method can reduce the dimensionality of parameter space to 2D thanks to the rotational invariance of local invariant geometric feature and it can estimate the accuracy position and rotation angle of IC chips in real-time under noise and blur influence. The experiment results show that the proposed LI-GHT can estimate position and rotation angle of IC chips with high accuracy and fast speed. The proposed LI-GHT algorithm was implemented in IC visual positioning system of radio frequency identification (RFID) packaging equipment.

Keywords: Integrated Circuit Visual Positioning, Generalized Hough Transform, Local invariant Generalized Hough Transform, ICpacking equipment

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8061 An Assessment on Awareness of Public Transport Policies for Persons with Disabilities in Three South-West Nigerian States

Authors: Julius A. Ademokoya, Grace C. Ilori

Abstract:

Extreme public transport difficulty for persons with disabilities (PWDs) has always been one of the challenges which these individuals experience on a daily basis in Nigeria. Private and public transport vehicles are not disability- friendly. Operators of public transport are often very intolerant of PWDs' conditions. Indeed, many Nigerians believe it is luxury for PWDs to engage in public transport. They are rarely expected to be seen in public much less going to places via public transport means. Initiatives by a few Nigerian states to develop and implement public transport policies for PWDs, therefore, were a huge relief for them and some concerned Nigerians. A few years ago, three southwest Nigerian states (Lagos, Ondo, and Ekiti) came up with some legislative welfare provisions (including transport programmes) for PWDs. This study, therefore, sought to ascertain levels of awareness and implementation of public policies among the PWDs and those expected to implement the policies. The study adopted a mixed method research. Findings across the three states showed that: (1) awareness of public policies among PWDs is low and (2) a considerable scope of the policies is not yet implemented. Recommendations are, therefore, made on how to improve on awareness and implementation of transport policies for PWDs in three south-west Nigerian states.

Keywords: awareness, disability rights, implementation persons with disability, transport policies

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8060 A Generalized Model for Performance Analysis of Airborne Radar in Clutter Scenario

Authors: Vinod Kumar Jaysaval, Prateek Agarwal

Abstract:

Performance prediction of airborne radar is a challenging and cumbersome task in clutter scenario for different types of targets. A generalized model requires to predict the performance of Radar for air targets as well as ground moving targets. In this paper, we propose a generalized model to bring out the performance of airborne radar for different Pulsed Repetition Frequency (PRF) as well as different type of targets. The model provides a platform to bring out different subsystem parameters for different applications and performance requirements under different types of clutter terrain.

Keywords: airborne radar, blind zone, clutter, probability of detection

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8059 Public Transport Analysis and Introducing of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) System in Kabul City

Authors: Ramin Mirzada

Abstract:

This research investigates the valuation of public transport importance in decreasing congestion and in introduction of bus rapid transit in Kabul city. The main concern and main problem of the Kabul city public transport is traffic congestion. When buses and trams are stuck in traffic jams, it is clear that they fall behind from the schedule and this cause lots of problem for Kabul residence. In this research, the main attention has been given to improve current public transport in Kabul city which Public transport has large share almost 50% share among all mode. The main purpose of this research is to improve public transport system, to examine the demand and the supply of public transport in Kabul city, and to improve public transport system by introducing Bus rapid transit (BRT) system in Kabul city. The data which is used in this research is gathered by Transport Ministry, Kabul Municipality and Japan Cooperation Agency in Afghanistan (JICA). Urban transportation modeling system (UTMS) which is also known as traditional four-step modeling is used as the methodology of this research. The outcome of this research shows that by improving public transport which is local bus system mostly congestion problem of Kabul city become solve, and for those lanes which has the high demand and has more congestion, it is needed to introduce bus rapid transit system.

Keywords: transportation, planning, public transport, bus rapid transit, Kabul, Afghanistan

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8058 Analysis of the CO2 Emissions of Public Passenger Transport in Tianjin City of China

Authors: Tao Zhao, Xianshuo Xu

Abstract:

Low-carbon public passenger transport is an important part of low carbon city. The CO2 emissions of public passenger transport in Tianjin from 1995 to 2010 are estimated with IPCC CO2 counting method, which shows that the total CO2 emissions of Tianjin public passenger transport have gradually become stable at 1,425.1 thousand tons. And then the CO2 emissions of the buses, taxies, and rail transits are calculated respectively. A CO2 emission of 829.9 thousand tons makes taxies become the largest CO2 emissions source among the public passenger transport in Tianjin. Combining with passenger volume, this paper analyzes the CO2 emissions proportion of the buses, taxies, and rail transits compare the passenger transport rate with the proportion of CO2 emissions, as well as the CO2 emissions change of per 10,000 people. The passenger volume proportion of bus among the three public means of transport is 72.62% which is much higher than its CO2 emissions proportion of 36.01%, with the minimum number of CO2 emissions per 10,000 people of 4.90 tons. The countermeasures to reduce CO2 emissions of public passenger transport in Tianjin are to develop rail transit, update vehicles and use alternative fuel vehicles.

Keywords: public passenger transport, carbon emissions, countermeasures, China

Procedia PDF Downloads 399
8057 Feasibility of On-Demand Transport Systems (ODT) in Oran Wilaya: Geomatics Study

Authors: Brahmia Nadjet

Abstract:

The growing needs of displacements led advanced countries in this field install new specific transport systems, able to palliate any deficiencies, especially when regular public transport does not adequately meet the requests of users. In this context, on-demand transport systems (ODT) are very efficient; they rely on techniques based on the location of trip generators which should be assured effectively with the use of operators responsible of the advance reservation, planning and organization, and studying the different ODT criteria (organizational, technical, geographical, etc.). As the advanced countries in the field of transport, some developing countries are involved in the adaptation of the new technologies to reduce the deficit in their communication system. This communication presents the study of an ODT implementation in the west of Algeria, by developing the Geomatics side of the study. This part requires the use of specific systems (such as GIS, RDBMS), so we developed the process through an application in an environment of mobility by using the computer tools dedicated to the management of the entities related to the transport field.

Keywords: ODT, geomatics, GIS, transport systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 472
8056 Model Based Improvement of Ultrasound Assisted Transport of Cohesive Dry Powders

Authors: Paul Dunst, Ing. Tobias Hemsel, Ing. Habil. Walter Sextro

Abstract:

The use of fine powders with high cohesive and adhesive properties leads to challenges during transport, mixing and dosing in industrial processes, which have not been satisfactorily solved so far. Due to the increased contact forces at the transporting parts (e. g. pipe-wall and transport screws), conventional transport systems and also vibratory conveyors reach their limits. Often, flowability increasing additives that need to be removed again in later process steps are the only option to achieve wanted transport results. A rather new ultrasound-assisted powder transport system showed to overcome some of the issues by manipulating the effective friction between powder and transport pipe. Within this contribution, the transport mechanism will be introduced shortly, together with preliminary transport results. As the tangential force of the transport pipe and the powder is the main influencing factor within the transport process, a test stand for measuring tangential forces of a powder-wall contact in the presence of an ultrasonic vibration orthogonal to the contact plane was built. Measurements for a sample powder show that the effective tangential force can already be significantly reduced at very low ultrasonic amplitude. As a result of the measurements, an empirical model for the relationship of tangential force, contact parameters and ultrasonic excitation is presented. This model was used to adjust the driving parameters of the powder transport system, resulting in better performance.

Keywords: powder transport, ultrasound, friction, friction manipulation, vibratory conveyor

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8055 Application of Transportation Linear Programming Algorithms to Cost Reduction in Nigeria Soft Drinks Industry

Authors: Salami Akeem Olanrewaju

Abstract:

The transportation models or problems are primarily concerned with the optimal (best possible) way in which a product produced at different factories or plants (called supply origins) can be transported to a number of warehouses or customers (called demand destinations). The objective in a transportation problem is to fully satisfy the destination requirements within the operating production capacity constraints at the minimum possible cost. The objective of this study is to determine ways of minimizing transport cost in order to maximum profit. Data were gathered from the records of the Distribution Department of 7-Up Bottling Company Plc. Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria. The data were analyzed using SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences) while applying the three methods of solving a transportation problem. The three methods produced the same results; therefore, any of the method can be adopted by the company in transporting its final products to the wholesale dealers in order to minimize total production cost.

Keywords: cost minimization, resources utilization, distribution system, allocation problem

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8054 Generalized Extreme Value Regression with Binary Dependent Variable: An Application for Predicting Meteorological Drought Probabilities

Authors: Retius Chifurira

Abstract:

Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
8053 Estimation of Sediment Transport into a Reservoir Dam

Authors: Kiyoumars Roushangar, Saeid Sadaghian

Abstract:

Although accurate sediment load prediction is very important in planning, designing, operating and maintenance of water resources structures, the transport mechanism is complex, and the deterministic transport models are based on simplifying assumptions often lead to large prediction errors. In this research, firstly, two intelligent ANN methods, Radial Basis and General Regression Neural Networks, are adopted to model of total sediment load transport into Madani Dam reservoir (north of Iran) using the measured data and then applicability of the sediment transport methods developed by Engelund and Hansen, Ackers and White, Yang, and Toffaleti for predicting of sediment load discharge are evaluated. Based on comparison of the results, it is found that the GRNN model gives better estimates than the sediment rating curve and mentioned classic methods.

Keywords: sediment transport, dam reservoir, RBF, GRNN, prediction

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8052 Benefits of Polish Accession to the European Union for Air Transport

Authors: D. Tloczynski

Abstract:

The main aim of this article is to present a balance of the decade of Polish air transport market in the European Union having taking into account selected entities of the aviation market. This article analyzes the functioning of the Polish air transport market after the Polish accession to the European Union. During the study two main areas were pointed: shipping activity and activity of the airports. The most important benefits of integration and the benefits of introducing of the open sky policy were indicated. The last part of the article presents the perspectives of development of air traffic.

Keywords: air transport, airports, development air transport, European Union, Poland

Procedia PDF Downloads 416
8051 Parameter Estimation for the Mixture of Generalized Gamma Model

Authors: Wikanda Phaphan

Abstract:

Mixture generalized gamma distribution is a combination of two distributions: generalized gamma distribution and length biased generalized gamma distribution. These two distributions were presented by Suksaengrakcharoen and Bodhisuwan in 2014. The findings showed that probability density function (pdf) had fairly complexities, so it made problems in estimating parameters. The problem occurred in parameter estimation was that we were unable to calculate estimators in the form of critical expression. Thus, we will use numerical estimation to find the estimators. In this study, we presented a new method of the parameter estimation by using the expectation – maximization algorithm (EM), the conjugate gradient method, and the quasi-Newton method. The data was generated by acceptance-rejection method which is used for estimating α, β, λ and p. λ is the scale parameter, p is the weight parameter, α and β are the shape parameters. We will use Monte Carlo technique to find the estimator's performance. Determining the size of sample equals 10, 30, 100; the simulations were repeated 20 times in each case. We evaluated the effectiveness of the estimators which was introduced by considering values of the mean squared errors and the bias. The findings revealed that the EM-algorithm had proximity to the actual values determined. Also, the maximum likelihood estimators via the conjugate gradient and the quasi-Newton method are less precision than the maximum likelihood estimators via the EM-algorithm.

Keywords: conjugate gradient method, quasi-Newton method, EM-algorithm, generalized gamma distribution, length biased generalized gamma distribution, maximum likelihood method

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8050 Some Generalized Multivariate Estimators for Population Mean under Multi Phase Stratified Systematic Sampling

Authors: Muqaddas Javed, Muhammad Hanif

Abstract:

The generalized multivariate ratio and regression type estimators for population mean are suggested under multi-phase stratified systematic sampling (MPSSS) using multi auxiliary information. Estimators are developed under the two different situations of availability of auxiliary information. The expressions of bias and mean square error (MSE) are developed. Special cases of suggested estimators are also discussed and simulation study is conducted to observe the performance of estimators.

Keywords: generalized estimators, multi-phase sampling, stratified random sampling, systematic sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 700
8049 Notes on Frames in Weighted Hardy Spaces and Generalized Weighted Composition Operators

Authors: Shams Alyusof

Abstract:

This work is to enrich the studies of the frames due to their prominent role in pure mathematics as well as in applied mathematics and many applications in computer science and engineering. Recently, there are remarkable studies of operators that preserve frames on some spaces, and this research could be considered as an extension of such studies. Indeed, this paper is to we characterize weighted composition operators that preserve frames in weighted Hardy spaces on the open unit disk. Moreover, it shows that this characterization does not apply to generalized weighted composition operators on such spaces. Nevertheless, this study could be extended to provide more specific characterizations.

Keywords: frames, generalized weighted composition operators, weighted Hardy spaces, analytic functions

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8048 Effective Planning of Public Transportation Systems: A Decision Support Application

Authors: Ferdi Sönmez, Nihal Yorulmaz

Abstract:

Decision making on the true planning of the public transportation systems to serve potential users is a must for metropolitan areas. To take attraction of travelers to projected modes of transport, adequately fair overall travel times should be provided. In this fashion, other benefits such as lower traffic congestion, road safety and lower noise and atmospheric pollution may be earned. The congestion which comes with increasing demand of public transportation is becoming a part of our lives and making residents’ life difficult. Hence, regulations should be done to reduce this congestion. To provide a constructive and balanced regulation in public transportation systems, right stations should be located in right places. In this study, it is aimed to design and implement a Decision Support System (DSS) Application to determine the optimal bus stop places for public transport in Istanbul which is one of the biggest and oldest cities in the world. Required information is gathered from IETT (Istanbul Electricity, Tram and Tunnel) Enterprises which manages all public transportation services in Istanbul Metropolitan Area. By using the most real-like values, cost assignments are made. The cost is calculated with the help of equations produced by bi-level optimization model. For this study, 300 buses, 300 drivers, 10 lines and 110 stops are used. The user cost of each station and the operator cost taken place in lines are calculated. Some components like cost, security and noise pollution are considered as significant factors affecting the solution of set covering problem which is mentioned for identifying and locating the minimum number of possible bus stops. Preliminary research and model development for this study refers to previously published article of the corresponding author. Model results are represented with the intent of decision support to the specialists on locating stops effectively.

Keywords: operator cost, bi-level optimization model, user cost, urban transportation

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8047 Effect of Cost Control and Cost Reduction Techniques in Organizational Performance

Authors: Babatunde Akeem Lawal

Abstract:

In any organization, the primary aim is to maximize profit, but the major challenges facing them is the increase in cost of operation because of this there is increase in cost of production that could lead to inevitable cost control and cost reduction scheme which make it difficult for most organizations to operate at the cost efficient frontier. The study aims to critically examine and evaluate the application of cost control and cost reduction in organization performance and also to review budget as an effective tool of cost control and cost reduction. A descriptive survey research was adopted. A total number of 40 respondent retrieved were used for the study. The analysis of data collected was undertaken by applying appropriate statistical tools. Regression analysis was used to test the hypothesis with the use of SPSS. Based on the findings; it was evident that cost control has a positive impact on organizational performance and also the style of management has a positive impact on organizational performance.

Keywords: organization, cost reduction, cost control, performance, budget, profit

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