Search results for: transition probability function

Authors: Nitaya Buntao

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This paper considers the problems of interval estimation for rainfall mean of the lognormal distribution and the delta-lognormal distribution in Northeastern Thailand. We present here the modified generalized pivotal approach (MGPA) compared to the modified method of variance estimates recovery (MMOVER). The performance of each method is examined in term of coverage probabilities and average lengths by Monte Carlo simulation. An extensive simulation study indicates that the MMOVER performs better than the MGPA approach in terms of the coverage probability; it results in highly accurate coverage probability.

Keywords: rainfall mean, interval estimation, lognormal distribution, delta-lognormal distribution

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Authors: Keunhong Chae, Seokho Yoon

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This paper proposes frequency offset (FO) estimation schemes robust to the non-Gaussian noise for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems. A maximum-likelihood (ML) scheme and a low-complexity estimation scheme are proposed by applying the probability density function of the cyclic prefix of OFDM symbols to the ML criterion. From simulation results, it is confirmed that the proposed schemes offer a significant FO estimation performance improvement over the conventional estimation scheme in non-Gaussian noise environments.

Keywords: frequency offset, cyclic prefix, maximum-likelihood, non-Gaussian noise, OFDM

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Authors: Syed Ahzam Tariq, Atharva Modi

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This paper presents a probabilistic analysis of the safety of water tube boilers using fault tree analysis (FTA). A fault tree has been constructed by considering all possible areas where a malfunction could lead to a boiler accident. Boiler accidents are relatively rare, causing a scarcity of data. The fuzzy approach is employed to perform a quantitative analysis, wherein theories of fuzzy logic are employed in conjunction with expert elicitation to calculate failure probabilities. The Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) provides a scientific and contingent method to forecast and prevent accidents.

Keywords: fault tree analysis water tube boiler, fuzzy probability score, failure probability

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Authors: Abir Touati, Syed Jawad Hussain, Farid Touati, Ammar Bouallegue

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Although there has been a growing interest in the hybrid free-space optical link and radio frequency FSO/RF communication system, the current literature is limited to results obtained in moderate or cold environment. In this paper, using a soft switching approach, we investigate the effect of weather inhomogeneities on the strength of turbulence hence the channel refractive index under Qatar harsh environment and their influence on the hybrid FSO/RF availability. In this approach, either FSO/RF or simultaneous or none of them can be active. Based on soft switching approach and a finite state Markov Chain (FSMC) process, we model the channel fading for the two links and derive a mathematical expression for the outage probability of the hybrid system. Then, we evaluate the behavior of the hybrid FSO/RF under hazy and harsh weather. Results show that the FSO/RF soft switching renders the system outage probability less than that of each link individually. A soft switching algorithm is being implemented on FPGAs using Raptor code interfaced to the two terminals of a 1Gbps/100 Mbps FSO/RF hybrid system, the first being implemented in the region. Experimental results are compared to the above simulation results.

Keywords: atmospheric turbulence, haze, hybrid FSO/RF, outage probability, refractive index

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Authors: Cuneyt Yucelbas, Seral Ozsen, Sule Yucelbas, Gulay Tezel

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Due to the fact that there exist only a small number of complex systems in artificial immune system (AIS) that work out nonlinear problems, nonlinear AIS approaches, among the well-known solution techniques, need to be developed. Gaussian function is usually used as similarity estimation in classification problems and pattern recognition. In this study, diagnosis of breast cancer, the second type of the most widespread cancer in women, was performed with different distance calculation functions that euclidean, gaussian and gaussian-euclidean hybrid function in the clonal selection model of classical AIS on Wisconsin Breast Cancer Dataset (WBCD), which was taken from the University of California, Irvine Machine-Learning Repository. We used 3-fold cross validation method to train and test the dataset. According to the results, the maximum test classification accuracy was reported as 97.35% by using of gaussian-euclidean hybrid function for fold-3. Also, mean of test classification accuracies for all of functions were obtained as 94.78%, 94.45% and 95.31% with use of euclidean, gaussian and gaussian-euclidean, respectively. With these results, gaussian-euclidean hybrid function seems to be a potential distance calculation method, and it may be considered as an alternative distance calculation method for hard nonlinear classification problems.

Keywords: artificial immune system, breast cancer diagnosis, Euclidean function, Gaussian function

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Authors: Martha E. Aguiar-Barrera, Humberto Gutierrez-Pulido, Veronica Vargas-Alejo

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Identifying and modeling random phenomena is a fundamental cognitive process to understand and transform reality. Recognizing situations governed by chance and giving them a scientific interpretation, without being carried away by beliefs or intuitions, is a basic training for citizens. Hence the importance of generating teaching-learning processes, supported using technology, paying attention to model creation rather than only executing mathematical calculations. In order to develop the student's knowledge about basic probability distributions and decision making; in this work a model eliciting activity (MEA) is reported. The intention was applying the Model and Modeling Perspective to design an activity related to civil engineering that would be understandable for students, while involving them in its solution. Furthermore, the activity should imply a decision-making challenge based on sample data, and the use of the computer should be considered. The activity was designed considering the six design principles for MEA proposed by Lesh and collaborators. These are model construction, reality, self-evaluation, model documentation, shareable and reusable, and prototype. The application and refinement of the activity was carried out during three school cycles in the Probability and Statistics class for Civil Engineering students at the University of Guadalajara. The analysis of the way in which the students sought to solve the activity was made using audio and video recordings, as well as with the individual and team reports of the students. The information obtained was categorized according to the activity phase (individual or team) and the category of analysis (sample, linearity, probability, distributions, mechanization, and decision-making). With the results obtained through the MEA, four obstacles have been identified to understand and apply the binomial distribution: the first one was the resistance of the student to move from the linear to the probabilistic model; the second one, the difficulty of visualizing (infering) the behavior of the population through the sample data; the third one, viewing the sample as an isolated event and not as part of a random process that must be viewed in the context of a probability distribution; and the fourth one, the difficulty of decision-making with the support of probabilistic calculations. These obstacles have also been identified in literature on the teaching of probability and statistics. Recognizing these concepts as obstacles to understanding probability distributions, and that these do not change after an intervention, allows for the modification of these interventions and the MEA. In such a way, the students may identify themselves the erroneous solutions when they carrying out the MEA. The MEA also showed to be democratic since several students who had little participation and low grades in the first units, improved their participation. Regarding the use of the computer, the RStudio software was useful in several tasks, for example in such as plotting the probability distributions and to exploring different sample sizes. In conclusion, with the models created to solve the MEA, the Civil Engineering students improved their probabilistic knowledge and understanding of fundamental concepts such as sample, population, and probability distribution.

Keywords: linear model, models and modeling, probability, randomness, sample

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Authors: S. Boudali, A. M. Soliman, B. Abdulsalam, K. Ayed, D. E. Kerdal, S. Poncet

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This study investigates the potential of using crushed concrete as aggregates to produce green and sustainable concrete. Crushed concrete was sieved to powder fine recycled aggregate (PFRA) less than 80 µm and coarse recycled aggregates (CRA). Physical, mechanical, and microstructural properties for PFRA and CRA were evaluated. The effect of the additional rates of PFRA and CRA on strength development of recycled aggregate concrete (RAC) was investigated. Additionally, the characteristics of interfacial transition zone (ITZ) between cement paste and recycled aggregate were also examined. Results show that concrete mixtures made with 100% of CRA and 40% PFRA exhibited similar performance to that of the control mixture prepared with 100% natural aggregate (NA) and 40% natural pozzolan (NP). Moreover, concrete mixture incorporating recycled aggregate exhibited a slightly higher later compressive strength than that of the concrete with NA. This was confirmed by the very dense microstructure for concrete mixture incorporating recycled concrete aggregates compared to that of conventional concrete mixture.

Keywords: compressive strength, recycled concrete aggregates, microstructure, interfacial transition zone, powder fine recycled aggregate

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Authors: E. Cuevas, M. Feigel'man, L. Ioffe, M. Mezard

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The origin of continuous energy spectrum in large disordered interacting quantum systems is one of the key unsolved problems in quantum physics. While small quantum systems with discrete energy levels are noiseless and stay coherent forever in the absence of any coupling to external world, most large-scale quantum systems are able to produce thermal bath, thermal transport and excitation decay. This intrinsic decoherence is manifested by a broadening of energy levels which acquire a finite width. The important question is: What is the driving force and mechanism of transition(s) between two different types of many-body systems - with and without decoherence and thermal transport? Here, we address this question via two complementary approaches applied to the same model of quantum spin-1/2 system with XY-type exchange interaction and random transverse field. Namely, we develop analytical theory for this spin model on a Bethe lattice and implement numerical study of exact level statistics for the same spin model on random graph. This spin model is relevant to the study of pseudogaped superconductivity and S-I transition in some amorphous materials.

Keywords: strongly correlated electrons, quantum phase transitions, superconductor, insulator

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Authors: Mahdi Rahimi, Mohammad Mahdi Mojahedian, Mohammad Reza Aref

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In this paper, a cellular communication scenario with a transmitter and an authorized user is considered to analyze its secrecy in the face of eavesdroppers and the interferences propagated unintentionally through the communication network. It is also assumed that some D2D pairs and eavesdroppers are randomly located in the cell. Assuming hardware impairment, perfect connection probability is analytically calculated, and upper bound is provided for the secrecy outage probability. In addition, a method based on random activation of D2Ds is proposed to improve network security. Finally, the analytical results are verified by simulations.

Keywords: physical layer security, stochastic geometry, device-to-device, hardware impairment

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Authors: Veronika Zivicova, Petr Broz, Zdenek Fik, Alzbeta Mifkova, Jan Plzak, Zdenek Cada, Herbert Kaltner, Jana Fialova Kucerova, Hans-Joachim Gabius, Karel Smetana Jr.

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The possibility to determine genome-wide expression profiles of cells and tissues opens a new level of analysis in the quest to define dysregulation in malignancy and thus identify new tumor markers. Toward this long-term aim, we here address two issues on this level for head and neck cancer specimen: i) defining profiles in different regions, i.e. the tumor, the transition zone and normal control and ii) comparing complete data sets for seven individual patients. Special focus in the flanking immunohistochemical part is given to adhesion/growth-regulatory galectins that upregulate chemo- and cytokine expression in an NF-κB-dependent manner, to these regulators and to markers of differentiation, i.e. keratins. The detailed listing of up- and down-regulations, also available in printed form (1), not only served to unveil new candidates for testing as marker but also let the impact of the tumor in the transition zone become apparent. The extent of interindividual variation raises a strong cautionary note on assuming uniformity of regulatory events, to be noted when considering therapeutic implications. Thus, a combination of test targets (and a network analysis for galectins and their downstream effectors) is (are) advised prior to reaching conclusions on further perspectives.

Keywords: galectins, genome scale sequencing, squamous cell carcinoma, transition zone

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Authors: A. Katsman, L. Bloch, Y. Etinger, Y. Kauffmann, B. Pokroy

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Various nanosized amorphous alumina thin films in the range of (2.4 - 63.1) nm were deposited onto amorphous carbon and amorphous Si3N4 membrane grids. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM), electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) techniques were used to probe the size effect on the short range order and the amorphous to crystalline phase transition temperature. It was found that the short-range order changes as a function of size: the fraction of tetrahedral Al sites is greater in thinner amorphous films. This result correlates with the change of amorphous alumina density with the film thickness demonstrated by the reflectivity experiments: the thinner amorphous films have the less density. These effects are discussed in terms of surface reconstruction of the amorphous alumina films. The average atomic binding energy in the thin film layer decreases with decease of the thickness, while the average O-Al interatomic distance increases. The reconstruction of amorphous alumina is induced by the surface reconstruction, and the short range order changes being dependent on the density. Decrease of the surface energy during reconstruction is the driving force of the alumina reconstruction (density change) followed by relaxation process (short range order change). The amorphous to crystalline phase transition temperature measured by DSC rises with the decrease in thickness from 997.6°C for 13.9 nm to 1020.4 °C for 2.7 nm thick. This effect was attributed to the different film densities: formation of nanovoids preceding and accompanying crystallization process influences the crystallization rate, and by these means, the temperature of crystallization peak.

Keywords: amorphous alumina, density, short range order, size effect

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Authors: Abhijitsinh Gohil, Kaushal Wadhvaniya, Kuldipsinh Jadeja

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Road Safety is a multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional issue. An effective model can assess the risk associated with highway safety. A questionnaire survey is very essential to identify the events or activities which are causing unsafe condition for traffic on an urban highway. A questionnaire of standard questions including vehicular, human and infrastructure characteristics can be made. Responses from the age wise group of road users can be taken on field. Each question or an event holds a specific risk weightage, which contributes in creating an inappropriate and unsafe flow of traffic. The probability of occurrence of an event can be calculated from the data collected from the road users. Finally, the risk score can be calculated by considering the risk factor and the probability of occurrence of individual event and addition of all risk score for the individual event will give the total risk score of a particular road. Standards for risk score can be made and total risk score can be compared with the standards. Thus road can be categorized based on risk associated and traffic safety on it. With this model, one can assess the need for traffic safety improvement on a given road, and qualitative data can be analysed.

Keywords: probability of occurrence, questionnaire, risk factor, risk score

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Authors: Askar Kilmametov, Julia Ivanisenko, Boris Straumal, Horst Hahn

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The high-pressure α- to ω-phase transition was discovered in elemental Ti and Zr fifty years ago using static high pressure and then observed to appear between 2 and 12 GPa at room temperature, depending on the experimental technique, the pressure environment, and the sample purity. The fact that ω-phase is retained in a metastable state in ambient condition after the removal of the pressure has been used to check the changes in magnetic and superconductive behavior, electron band structure and mechanical properties. However, the fundamental knowledge on a combination of both mechanical treatment and high applied pressure treatments for ω-phase formation in Ti alloys is currently lacking and has to be studied in relation to improved mechanical properties of bulk nanostructured states. In the present study, nanostructured (α+β) Ti alloys containing β-stabilizing elements such as Co, Fe, Cr, Nb were performed by severe plastic deformation, namely high pressure torsion (HPT) technique. HPT-induced α- to ω-phase transformation was revealed in dependence on applied pressure and shear strains by means of X-ray diffraction, transmission electron microscopy, and differential scanning calorimetry. The transformation kinetics was compared with the kinetics of pressure-induced transition. Orientation relationship between α-, β- and ω-phases was taken into consideration and analyzed according to theoretical calculation proposed earlier. The influence of initial state before HPT appeared to be considerable for subsequent α- to ω-phase transition. Thermal stability of the HPT-induced ω-phase was discussed as well in the frame of mechanical behavior of Ti and Ti-based alloys produced by shear deformation under high applied pressure.

Keywords: bulk nanostructured materials, high pressure phase transitions, severe plastic deformation, titanium alloys

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Authors: Othman Saleh Al-Razgan

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Obesity establishes an epidemic along with an array of comorbidities and this call for careful clinical assessment, to identify causal factors and comprehensive management. In Kuwait, this epidemic reflects the progressive, socio-economic and age-related issues, along with the shift of nutrition from traditional to modern-style. The current research attempts to narrate the obesity and related health issues in Kuwait, with a special emphasis on the magnitude of the issue in Kuwait, nutrition transition over the past three decades, change in life-style, and possible solution for this issue.

Keywords: clinical assessment, comorbidities, obesity, socio-economic

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Authors: Shun Horikoshi, Tohru Kawabe

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This study presents performance analysis results of SMC (Sliding mode control) with changing the chattering functions applied to slip suppression problem of electric vehicles (EVs). In SMC, chattering phenomenon always occurs through high frequency switching of the control inputs. It is undesirable phenomenon and degrade the control performance, since it causes the oscillations of the control inputs. Several studies have been conducted on this problem by introducing some general saturation function. However, study about whether saturation function was really best and the performance analysis when using the other functions, weren’t being done so much. Therefore, in this paper, several candidate functions for SMC are selected and control performance of candidate functions is analyzed. In the analysis, evaluation function based on the trade-off between slip suppression performance and chattering reduction performance is proposed. The analyses are conducted in several numerical simulations of slip suppression problem of EVs. Then, we can see that there is no difference of employed candidate functions in chattering reduction performance. On the other hand, in slip suppression performance, the saturation function is excellent overall. So, we conclude the saturation function is most suitable for slip suppression sliding mode control.

Keywords: sliding mode control, chattering function, electric vehicle, slip suppression, performance analysis

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Authors: Sameer Jung Karki, Gokhan Saygili

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The allowable bearing capacity of foundation systems is determined by applying a factor of safety to the ultimate bearing capacity. Conventional ultimate bearing capacity calculations routines are based on deterministic input parameters where the nonuniformity and inhomogeneity of soil and site properties are not accounted for. Hence, the laws of mathematics like probability calculus and statistical analysis cannot be directly applied to foundation engineering. It’s assumed that the Factor of Safety, typically as high as 3.0, incorporates the uncertainty of the input parameters. This factor of safety is estimated based on subjective judgement rather than objective facts. It is an ambiguous term. Hence, a probabilistic analysis of the bearing capacity of an isolated footing on a clayey soil is carried out by using the Monte Carlo Simulation method. This simulated model was compared with the traditional discrete model. It was found out that the bearing capacity of soil was found higher for the simulated model compared with the discrete model. This was verified by doing the sensitivity analysis. As the number of simulations was increased, there was a significant % increase of the bearing capacity compared with discrete bearing capacity. The bearing capacity values obtained by simulation was found to follow a normal distribution. While using the traditional value of Factor of safety 3, the allowable bearing capacity had lower probability (0.03717) of occurring in the field compared to a higher probability (0.15866), while using the simulation derived factor of safety of 1.5. This means the traditional factor of safety is giving us bearing capacity that is less likely occurring/available in the field. This shows the subjective nature of factor of safety, and hence probability method is suggested to address the variability of the input parameters in bearing capacity equations.

Keywords: bearing capacity, factor of safety, isolated footing, montecarlo simulation

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Authors: Christopher Giehl, Anja Allabar, Daniela Ehgartner

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Rotational rheometry is standard practice for the viscosity measurement of molten glass, neglecting the viscoelastic properties of this material, especially at temperatures approaching the glass transition. Oscillatory rheometry serves as a powerful toolbox for glass melt characterization beyond viscosity measurements. Heating and cooling rates and the time-dependent visco-elastic behavior influence the temperature where materials undergo the glass transition. This study presents quantitative thermo-mechanical visco-elasticity measurements on three samples in the Na-K-Al-Si-O system. The measurements were performed with a Furnace Rheometer System combined with an air-bearing DSR 502 measuring head (Anton Paar) and a Pt90Rh10 measuring geometry. Temperature ramps were conducted in rotation and oscillation, and the (complex) viscosity values were compared to calculated viscosity values based on sample composition. Furthermore, temperature ramps with different frequencies were conducted, also revealing the frequency-dependence of the shear loss modulus G’’ and the shear storage modulus G’. Here, lower oscillatory frequency results in lower glass transition temperature, as defined by the G’-G’’ crossover point. This contribution demonstrates that oscillatory rheometry serves as a powerful toolbox beyond viscosity measurements, as it considers the visco-elasticity of glass melts quantifying viscous and elastic moduli. Further, it offers a strong definition of Tg beyond the 10^12 Pas concept, which cannot be utilized with rotational viscometry data.

Keywords: frequency dependent glass transition, Na-K-Al-Si-O glass melts, oscillatory rheometry, visco-elasticity

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Authors: Mohamed Ouazene

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The insulating properties of the polymers are widely used in electrical engineering for the production of insulators and various supports, as well as for the insulation of electric cables for medium and high voltage, etc. These polymeric materials have significant advantages both technically and economically. However, although the insulation with polymeric materials has advantages, there are also certain disadvantages such as the influence of the heat which can have a detrimental effect on these materials. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is one of the polymers used in a plasticized state in the cable insulation to medium and high voltage. The studied material is polyvinyl chloride (PVC 4000 M) from the Algerian national oil company whose formula is: Industrial PVC 4000 M is in the form of white powder. The test sample is a pastille of 1 mm thick and 1 cm in diameter. The consequences of increasing the temperature of a polymer are modifications; some of them are reversible and others irreversible [1]. The reversible changes do not affect the chemical composition of the polymer, or its structure. They are characterized by transitions and relaxations. The glass transition temperature is an important feature of a polymer. Physical aging of PVC is to maintain the material for a longer or shorter time to its glass transition temperature. The aim of this paper is to study this phenomenon by the method of thermally stimulated depolarization currents. Relaxations within the polymer have been recorded in the form of current peaks. We have found that the intensity decreases for more residence time in the polymer along its glass transition temperature. Furthermore, it is inferred from this work that the phenomenon of physical aging can have important consequences on the properties of the polymer. It leads to a more compact rearrangement of the material and a reconstruction or reinforcement of structural connections.

Keywords: depolarization currents, glass transition temperature, physical aging, polyvinyl chloride (PVC)

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wang

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The study of extreme rainfall events is very important for flood management in river basins and the design of water conservancy infrastructure. Evaluation of quantiles of annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) is required in different environmental fields, agriculture operations, renewable energy sources, climatology, and the design of different structures. Therefore, the annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) was performed at different stations in Pakistan. Multiple probability distributions, log normal (LN), generalized extreme value (GEV), Gumbel (max), and Pearson type3 (P3) were used to find out the most appropriate distributions in different stations. The L moments method was used to evaluate the distribution parameters. Anderson darling test, Kolmogorov- Smirnov test, and chi-square test showed that two distributions, namely GUM (max) and LN, were the best appropriate distributions. The quantile estimate of a multi-parameter PD offers extreme rainfall through a specific location and is therefore important for decision-makers and planners who design and construct different structures. This result provides an indication of these multi-parameter distribution consequences for the study of sites and peak flow prediction and the design of hydrological maps. Therefore, this discovery can support hydraulic structure and flood management.

Keywords: RAMSE, multiple frequency analysis, annual maximum rainfall, L-moments

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Authors: S. Phanyaem

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This paper presents the confidence intervals for the effect size base on bootstrap resampling method. The meta-analytic confidence interval for effect size is proposed that are easy to compute. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the proposed confidence intervals with the existing confidence intervals. The best confidence interval method will have a coverage probability close to 0.95. Simulation results have shown that our proposed confidence intervals perform well in terms of coverage probability and expected length.

Keywords: effect size, confidence interval, bootstrap method, resampling

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Authors: Diriba Dereje

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Background: Cardiac and renal disease are the most prevalent chronic non-communicable diseases (CNCD) affecting the community in a significant manner. The best and recommended method in halting CNCD is by working on prevention as early as possible. This is only possible if early surrogate markers are identified. As part of the stated solution, this study will identify an association between microalbuminuria (an early surrogate marker of renal and cardiac disease) and lung function test among adult in the community. Objective: The main aim of this study was to assess an association between microalbuminuria (an early surrogate marker of renal and cardiac disease) and lung function test among adult in the community. Methodology: Community based cross sectional study was conducted among 384 adult in Jimma town. A systematic sampling technique was used in selecting participants to the study. In searching for the possible association, binary and multivariate logistic regression and t-test was conducted. Finally, the association between microalbuminuria and lung function test was well stated in the form of figures and written description. Result and Conclusion: A significant association was found between microalbuminuria and different lung function test parameters.

Keywords: microalbuminuria, lung function, association, test

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Authors: Muhammad Bahrul Ilmi

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The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of Islamic financing and work relation founding simultaneously and partially towards non-performing financing in Islamic banks. This research was regression quantitative field research, and had been done in Muammalat Indonesia Bank and Islamic Danamon Bank in 3 months. The populations of this research were 15 account officers of Muammalat Indonesia Bank and Islamic Danamon Bank in Surakarta, Indonesia. The techniques of collecting data used in this research were documentation, questionnaire, literary study and interview. Regression analysis result shows that Islamic financing and work relation founding simultaneously has positive and significant effect towards non performing financing of two Islamic Banks. It is obtained with probability value 0.003 which is less than 0.05 and F value 9.584. The analysis result of Islamic financing regression towards non performing financing shows the significant effect. It is supported by double linear regression analysis with probability value 0.001 which is less than 0.05. The regression analysis of work relation founding effect towards non-performing financing shows insignificant effect. This is shown in the double linear regression analysis with probability value 0.161 which is bigger than 0.05.

Keywords: Syariah financing, work relation founding, non-performing financing (NPF), Islamic Bank

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Authors: Mehrnaz Alibeikloo, Hadi Khabbaz, Behzad Fatahi

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Probabilistic analysis has become one of the most popular methods to quantify and manage geotechnical risks due to the spatial variability of soil input parameters. The correlation length is one of the key factors of quantifying spatial variability of soil parameters which is defined as a distance within which the random variables are correlated strongly. This paper aims to assess the impact of correlation length on the long-term settlement of soft soils improved with preloading. The concept of 'worst-case' spatial correlation length was evaluated by determining the probability of failure of a real case study of Vasby test fill. For this purpose, a finite difference code was developed based on axisymmetric consolidation equations incorporating the non-linear elastic visco-plastic model and the Karhunen-Loeve expansion method. The results show that correlation length has a significant impact on the post-construction settlement of soft soils in a way that by increasing correlation length, probability of failure increases and the approach to asymptote.

Keywords: Karhunen-Loeve expansion, probability of failure, soft soil settlement, 'worst case' spatial correlation length

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Authors: Masoud Ghahvechi Pour

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Risk management is a systematic and regular process of identifying, analyzing and responding to risks throughout the project's life cycle in order to achieve the optimal level of elimination, reduction or control of risk. The purpose of project risk management is to increase the probability and effect of positive events and reduce the probability and effect of unpleasant events on the project. Risk management is one of the most fundamental parts of project management, so that unmanaged or untransmitted risks can be one of the primary factors of failure in a project. Effective risk management does not apply to risk regression, which is apparently the cheapest option of the activity. However, the main problem with this option is the economic sensitivity, because what is potentially profitable is by definition risky, and what does not pose a risk is economically interesting and does not bring tangible benefits. Therefore, in relation to the implemented project, effective risk management is finding a "middle ground" in its management, which includes, on the one hand, protection against risk from a negative direction by means of accurate identification and classification of risk, which leads to analysis And it becomes a comprehensive analysis. On the other hand, management using all mathematical and analytical tools should be based on checking the maximum benefits of these decisions. Detailed analysis, taking into account all aspects of the company, including stakeholder analysis, will allow us to add what will become tangible benefits for our project in the future to effective risk management. Identifying the risk of the project is based on the theory that which type of risk may affect the project, and also refers to specific parameters and estimating the probability of their occurrence in the project. These conditions can be divided into three groups: certainty, uncertainty, and risk, which in turn support three types of investment: risk preference, risk neutrality, specific risk deviation, and its measurement. The result of risk identification and project analysis is a list of events that indicate the cause and probability of an event, and a final assessment of its impact on the environment.

Keywords: risk, management, knowledge, risk management

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Authors: O. A. Lawal, O. A Ojesanmi

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The demand for wireless cellular services continues to increase while the radio resources remain limited. Thus, network operators have to continuously manage the scarce radio resources in order to have an improved quality of service for mobile users. This paper proposes how to handle the problem of congestion in the mobile network by prioritizing handoff call, using the guard channel allocation scheme. The research uses specific threshold value for the time of allocation of the channel in the algorithm. The scheme would be simulated by generating various data for different traffics in the network as it would be in the real life. The result would be used to determine the probability of handoff call dropping and the probability of the new call blocking as a way of measuring the network performance.

Keywords: call block, channel, handoff, mobile cellular network

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Authors: Ali Kargar, Kamyar Mansour

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In this paper, experimental results of using hot wire anemometer and smoke visualization are presented. The results obtained on the hot wire anemometer for critical Reynolds number and transitional Reynolds number are compared by previous results. Excellent agreement is found for the transitional Reynolds number. The results for the transitional Reynolds number are also compared by previous linear stability results. The results of the smoke visualization clearly show the cross flow vortices which arise in the transition process from a laminar to a turbulent flow. A non-zero angle of attack is also considered. We compare our results by linear stability theory which was done by Garret et. Al (2007). We just emphasis, Also the visualization and hot wire anemometer results have been compared graphically. The goal in this paper is to check reliability of using hot wire anemometer and smoke visualization in transition problems and check reliability of linear stability theory for this case and compare our results with some trusty experimental works.

Keywords: transitional reynolds number, wind tunnel, rotating cone, smoke visualization

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Authors: J. Juan Peña, J. Morales, J. García-Ravelo, J. García-Martínes

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It is known that by introducing alternative forms of exponential and logarithmic functions, the Tsallis entropy Sq is itself a generalization of Shannon entropy S. In this work, from a deformation through a scaling function applied to the differential operator, it is possible to generate a q-deformed calculus as well as a q-deformed arithmetic, which not only allows generalizing the exponential and logarithmic functions but also any other standard function. The updated q-deformed differential operator leads to an updated integral operator under which the functions are integrated together with a weight function. For each differentiable function, it is possible to identify its q-deformed partner, which is useful to generalize other algebraic relations proper of the original functions. As an application of this proposal, in this work, a generalization of exponential and logarithmic functions is studied in such a way that their relationship with the thermodynamic functions, particularly the entropy, allows us to have a q-deformed expression of these. As a result, from a particular scaling function applied to the differential operator, a q-deformed arithmetic is obtained, leading to the generalization of the Tsallis entropy.

Keywords: q-calculus, q-deformed arithmetic, entropy, exponential functions, thermodynamic functions

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Authors: Kunal Tongaria, Abhishek Mangal, S. Mandal, Devendra Mohan

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The carbonation of concrete is a phenomenon which is a function of various interdependent parameters. Therefore, in spite of numerous literature and database, the useful generalization is not an easy task. These interdependent parameters can be grouped under the category of internal and external factors. This paper focuses on the internal parameters which govern and increase the probability of the ingress of deleterious substances into concrete. The mechanism of effects of internal parameters such as microstructure for with and without supplementary cementing materials (SCM), water/binder ratio, the age of concrete etc. has been discussed. This is followed by the comparison of various proposed mathematical models for the deterioration of concrete. Based on existing laboratory experiments as well as field results, this paper concludes the present understanding of mechanism, modeling and future research needs in this field.

Keywords: carbonation, diffusion coefficient, microstructure of concrete, reinforced concrete

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Authors: Damou Mehdi, Nouri Keltouma, Fahem Mohammed

Abstract:

In this paper, the concept of substrate integrated waveguide (SIW) technology is used to design filter for 30 GHz communication systems. SIW is created in the substrate of RT/Duroid 5880 having relative permittivity ε_r= 2.2 and loss tangent tanφ = 0.0009. Four Via are placed on the century filter the structures of SIW are modeled using and have been optimized in software HFSS (High Frequency Structure Simulator), à transition is designed for a Ka-band transceiver module with a 28.5GHz center frequency, . and then the results are verified using another simulation CST Microwave Studio (Computer Simulation Technology). The return loss are less than -18 dB, and -13 dB respectively. The insertion loss is divided equally -1.2 dB and -1.4 respectively.

Keywords: transition, microstrip, substrat integrated wave guide, filter, via

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Authors: Patrick Strefford, Michael Davies, Masahiko Iguchi

Abstract:

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted in 2015 to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure prosperity for all. Sustainable tourism is firmly positioned in these Goals, since tourism has significant potential to contribute to inclusive and sustainable economic growth, as well as to promote sustainable use of natural capital. Recognizing this, the new quasi-democratic government of Myanmar has embraced Sustainable Tourism as a core component of its economic reforms and opening up of the country. However, it is also highly likely that the Democrats within the government also support Sustainable Tourism as a potential contributor to the democratization of the country. This paper outlines how the government of Myanmar has understood the concept of Sustainable Tourism, and how it intends to implement and facilitate Sustainable Tourism. This paper, therefore, focuses primarily on the institutional frameworks that have been put in place, a specific one being the Inlay Lake Destination Management Plan, which is one of the four priority destinations identified by the government. The plan aims to improve local infrastructure, manage the local environment and develop local human resources. Importantly, the Plan also includes the establishment of a Destination Management Organization (DMO) to implement and manage Inlay Lake as a Sustainable Tourism destination. This research aims to investigate, for example, the equality in both input to the DMO and benefits accrued to the various stakeholders. How such equality can be ensured and how this can be reliably quantified will be crucial to ultimately evaluating the success of any such plans to implement Sustainable Tourism in Myanmar in the coming years. However, this research paper concludes that while the establishment of the DMO is a positive development, there are considerable institutional, economic and cultural factors that severely limit the ability of the DMO to function as an agent of sustainable tourism implementation.

Keywords: sustainable tourism, myanmar, country in transition, destination management organizations

Procedia PDF Downloads 279