Search results for: tests for series
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6597

Search results for: tests for series

6417 Deep Graph Embeddings for the Analysis of Short Heartbeat Interval Time Series

Authors: Tamas Madl

Abstract:

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) constitutes a large proportion of cardiovascular mortalities, provides little advance warning, and the risk is difficult to recognize based on ubiquitous, low cost medical equipment such as the standard, 12-lead, ten second ECG. Autonomic abnormalities have been shown to be strongly predictive of SCD risk; yet current methods are not trivially applicable to the brevity and low temporal and electrical resolution of standard ECGs. Here, we build horizontal visibility graph representations of very short inter-beat interval time series, and perform unsuper- vised representation learning in order to convert these variable size objects into fixed-length vectors preserving similarity rela- tions. We show that such representations facilitate classification into healthy vs. at-risk patients on two different datasets, the Mul- tiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II and the PhysioNet Sudden Cardiac Death Holter Database. Our results suggest that graph representation learning of heartbeat interval time series facilitates robust classification even in sequences as short as ten seconds.

Keywords: sudden cardiac death, heart rate variability, ECG analysis, time series classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 207
6416 U.S. Trade and Trade Balance with China: Testing for Marshall-Lerner Condition and the J-Curve Hypothesis

Authors: Anisul Islam

Abstract:

The U.S. has a very strong trade relationship with China but with a large and persistent trade deficit. Some has argued that the undervalued Chinese Yuan is to be blamed for the persistent trade deficit. The empirical results are mixed at best. This paper empirically estimates the U.S. export function along with the U.S. import function with its trade with China with the purpose of testing for the existence of the Marshall-Lerner (ML) condition as well for the possible existence of the J-curve hypothesis. Annual export and import data will be utilized for as long as the time series data exists. The export and import functions will be estimated using advanced econometric techniques, along with appropriate diagnostic tests performed to examine the validity and reliability of the estimated results. The annual time-series data covers from 1975 to 2022 with a sample size of 48 years, the longest period ever utilized before in any previous study. The data is collected from several sources, such as the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, IMF Financial Statistics, IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, and several other sources. The paper is expected to shed important light on the ongoing debate regarding the persistent U.S. trade deficit with China and the policies that may be useful to reduce such deficits over time. As such, the paper will be of great interest for the academics, researchers, think tanks, global organizations, and policy makers in both China and the U.S.

Keywords: exports, imports, marshall-lerner condition, j-curve hypothesis, united states, china

Procedia PDF Downloads 35
6415 Training of Sensors for Early Warning System of Rainfall Induced Landslides

Authors: M. Naresh, Pratik Chaturvedi, Srishti Yadav, Varun Dutt, K. V. Uday

Abstract:

Changes in the Earth’s climate are likely to increase natural hazards such as drought, floods, earthquakes, landslides, etc. The present study focusing on to early warning systems (EWS) of landslides, major issues in Himalayan region without prominence to deforestation, encroachments and un-engineered cutting of slopes and reforming for infrastructural purposes. EWS can be depicted by conducting a series of flume tests using micro-electro mechanical systems sensors data after reaching threshold values under controlled laboratory conditions. Based on the threshold value database, an alert will be sent via SMS.

Keywords: slope-instability, flume test, sensors, early warning system

Procedia PDF Downloads 235
6414 Degree of Approximation of Functions Conjugate to Periodic Functions Belonging to Lipschitz Classes by Product Matrix Means

Authors: Smita Sonker

Abstract:

Various investigators have determined the degree of approximation of conjugate signals (functions) of functions belonging to different classes Lipα, Lip(α,p), Lip(ξ(t),p), W(Lr,ξ(t), (β ≥ 0)) by matrix summability means, lower triangular matrix operator, product means (i.e. (C,1)(E,1), (C,1)(E,q), (E,q)(C,1) (N,p,q)(E,1), and (E,q)(N,pn) of their conjugate trigonometric Fourier series. In this paper, we shall determine the degree of approximation of 2π-periodic function conjugate functions of f belonging to the function classes Lipα and W(Lr; ξ(t); (β ≥ 0)) by (C1.T) -means of their conjugate trigonometric Fourier series. On the other hand, we shall review above-mentioned work in the light of Lenski.

Keywords: signals, trigonometric fourier approximation, class W(L^r, \xi(t), conjugate fourier series

Procedia PDF Downloads 371
6413 Haemocompatibility of Surface Modified AISI 316L Austenitic Stainless Steel Tested in Artificial Plasma

Authors: W. Walke, J. Przondziono, K. Nowińska

Abstract:

The study comprises evaluation of suitability of passive layer created on the surface of AISI 316L stainless steel for products that are intended to have contact with blood. For that purpose, prior to and after chemical passivation, samples were subject to 7 day exposure in artificial plasma at the temperature of T=37°C. Next, tests of metallic ions infiltration from the surface to the solution were performed. The tests were performed with application of spectrometer JY 2000, by Yobin – Yvon, employing Inductively Coupled Plasma Atomic Emission Spectrometry (ICP-AES). In order to characterize physical and chemical features of electrochemical processes taking place during exposure of samples to artificial plasma, tests with application of electrochemical impedance spectroscopy were suggested. The tests were performed with application of measuring unit equipped with potentiostat PGSTAT 302n with an attachment for impedance tests FRA2. Measurements were made in the environment simulating human blood at the temperature of T=37°C. Performed tests proved that application of chemical passivation process for AISI 316L stainless steel used for production of goods intended to have contact with blood is well-grounded and useful in order to improve safety of their usage.

Keywords: AISI 316L stainless steel, chemical passivation, artificial plasma, ions infiltration, EIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 233
6412 Characterization of Anisotropic Deformation in Sandstones Using Micro-Computed Tomography Technique

Authors: Seyed Mehdi Seyed Alizadeh, Christoph Arns, Shane Latham

Abstract:

Geomechanical characterization of rocks in detail and its possible implications on flow properties is an important aspect of reservoir characterization workflow. In order to gain more understanding of the microstructure evolution of reservoir rocks under stress a series of axisymmetric triaxial tests were performed on two different analogue rock samples. In-situ compression tests were coupled with high resolution micro-Computed Tomography to elucidate the changes in the pore/grain network of the rocks under pressurized conditions. Two outcrop sandstones were chosen in the current study representing a various cementation status of well-consolidated and weakly-consolidated granular system respectively. High resolution images were acquired while the rocks deformed in a purpose-built compression cell. A detailed analysis of the 3D images in each series of step-wise compression tests (up to the failure point) was conducted which includes the registration of the deformed specimen images with the reference pristine dry rock image. Digital Image Correlation (DIC) technique based on the intensity of the registered 3D subsets and particle tracking are utilized to map the displacement fields in each sample. The results suggest the complex architecture of the localized shear zone in well-cemented Bentheimer sandstone whereas for the weakly-consolidated Castlegate sandstone no discernible shear band could be observed even after macroscopic failure. Post-mortem imaging a sister plug from the friable rock upon undergoing continuous compression reveals signs of a shear band pattern. This suggests that for friable sandstones at small scales loading mode may affect the pattern of deformation. Prior to mechanical failure, the continuum digital image correlation approach can reasonably capture the kinematics of deformation. As failure occurs, however, discrete image correlation (i.e. particle tracking) reveals superiority in both tracking the grains as well as quantifying their kinematics (in terms of translations/rotations) with respect to any stage of compaction. An attempt was made to quantify the displacement field in compression using continuum Digital Image Correlation which is based on the reference and secondary image intensity correlation. Such approach has only been previously applied to unconsolidated granular systems under pressure. We are applying this technique to sandstones with various degrees of consolidation. Such element of novelty will set the results of this study apart from previous attempts to characterize the deformation pattern in consolidated sands.

Keywords: deformation mechanism, displacement field, shear behavior, triaxial compression, X-ray micro-CT

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
6411 Identifying Applicant Potential Through Admissions Testing

Authors: Belinda Brunner

Abstract:

Objectives: Communicate common test constructs of well-known higher education admissions tests. Discuss influences on admissions test construct definition and design and discuss research on related to factors influencing success in academic study. Discuss how admissions tests can be used to identify relevant talent. Examine how admissions test can be used to facilitate educational mobility and inform selection decisions when the prerequisite curricula is not standardized Observations: Generally speaking, constructs of admissions tests can be placed along a continuum from curriculum-related knowledge to more general reasoning abilities. For example, subject-specific achievement tests are more closely aligned to a prescribed curriculum, while reasoning tests are typically not associated with a specific curriculum. This session will draw reference from the test-constructs of well-known international higher education admissions tests, such as the UK clinical aptitude test (UKCAT) which is used for medicine and dentistry admissions. Conclusions: The purpose of academic admissions testing is to identify potential students with the prerequisite skills set needed to succeed in the academic environment, but how can the test construct help achieve this goal? Determination of the appropriate test construct for tests used in the admissions selection decisions should be influenced by a number of factors, including the preceding academic curricula, other criteria influencing the admissions decision, and the principal purpose for testing. Attendees of this session will learn the types of aptitudes and knowledge that are assessed higher education admissions tests and will have the opportunity to gain insight into how careful and deliberate consideration of the desired test constructs can aid in identifying potential students with the greatest likelihood of success in medical school.

Keywords: admissions, measuring success, selection, identify skills

Procedia PDF Downloads 463
6410 Investigating the Relationship and Interaction between Auditory Processing Disorder and Auditory Attention

Authors: Amirreza Razzaghipour Sorkhab

Abstract:

The exploration of the connection between cognition and Auditory Processing Disorder (APD) holds significant value. Individuals with APD experience challenges in processing auditory information through the central auditory nervous system's varied pathways. Understanding the importance of auditory attention in individuals with APD, as well as the primary diagnostic tools such as language and auditory attention tests, highlights the critical need for assessing their auditory attention abilities. While not all children with Auditory Processing Disorder (APD) show deficits in auditory attention, there are often deficiencies in cognitive and attentional performance. The link between various types of attention deficits and APD suggests impairments in sustained and divided auditory attention. Research into the origins of APD should also encompass higher-level processes, such as auditory attention. It is evident that investigating the interaction between APD and auditory and cognitive functions holds significant value. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that APD tests may be influenced by cognitive factors, but despite signs of auditory attention interaction with auditory processing skills and the influence of cognitive factors on tests for this disorder, auditory attention measures are not typically included in APD diagnostic protocols. Therefore, incorporating attention assessment tests into the battery of tests for individuals with auditory processing disorder will be beneficial for obtaining useful insights into their attentional abilities.

Keywords: auditory processing disorder, auditory attention, central auditory processing disorder, top-down pathway

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6409 Forecasting Issues in Energy Markets within a Reg-ARIMA Framework

Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-SARIMA methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 105
6408 Controlled Shock Response Spectrum Test on Spacecraft Subsystem Using Electrodynamic Shaker

Authors: M. Madheswaran, A. R. Prashant, S. Ramakrishna, V. Ramesh Naidu, P. Govindan, P. Aravindakshan

Abstract:

Shock Response spectrum (SRS) tests are one of the tests that are conducted on some critical systems of spacecraft as part of environmental testing. The SRS tests are conducted to simulate the pyro shocks that occur during launch phases as well as during deployment of spacecraft appendages. Some of the methods to carryout SRS tests are pyro technique method, impact hammer method, drop shock method and using electro dynamic shakers. The pyro technique, impact hammer and drop shock methods are open loop tests, whereas SRS testing using electrodynamic shaker is a controlled closed loop test. SRS testing using electrodynamic shaker offers various advantages such as simple test set up, better controllability and repeatability. However, it is important to devise a a proper test methodology so that safety of the electro dynamic shaker and that of test specimen are not compromised. This paper discusses the challenges that are involved in conducting SRS tests, shaker validation and the necessary precautions to be considered. Approach involved in choosing various test parameters like synthesis waveform, spectrum convergence level, etc., are discussed. A case study of SRS test conducted on an optical payload of Indian Geo stationary spacecraft is presented.

Keywords: maxi-max spectrum, SRS (shock response spectrum), SDOf (single degree of freedom), wavelet synthesis

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6407 Experimental Investigation and Constitutive Modeling of Volume Strain under Uniaxial Strain Rate Jump Test in HDPE

Authors: Rida B. Arieby, Hameed N. Hameed

Abstract:

In this work, tensile tests on high density polyethylene have been carried out under various constant strain rate and strain rate jump tests. The dependency of the true stress and specially the variation of volume strain have been investigated, the volume strain due to the phenomena of damage was determined in real time during the tests by an optical extensometer called Videotraction. A modified constitutive equations, including strain rate and damage effects, are proposed, such a model is based on a non-equilibrium thermodynamic approach called (DNLR). The ability of the model to predict the complex nonlinear response of this polymer is examined by comparing the model simulation with the available experimental data, which demonstrate that this model can represent the deformation behavior of the polymer reasonably well.

Keywords: strain rate jump tests, volume strain, high density polyethylene, large strain, thermodynamics approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 228
6406 Influence of Concrete Cracking in the Tensile Strength of Cast-in Headed Anchors

Authors: W. Nataniel, B. Lima, J. Manoel, M. P. Filho, H. Marcos, Oliveira Mauricio, P. Ferreira

Abstract:

Headed reinforcement bars are increasingly used for anchorage in concrete structures. Applications include connections in composite steel-concrete structures, such as beam-column joints, in several strengthening situations as well as in more traditional uses in cast-in-place and precast structural systems. This paper investigates the reduction in the ultimate tensile capacity of embedded cast-in headed anchors due to concrete cracking. A series of nine laboratory tests are carried out to evaluate the influence of cracking on the concrete breakout strength in tension. The experimental results show that cracking affects both the resistance and load-slip response of the headed bar anchors. The strengths measured in these tests are compared to theoretical resistances calculated following the recommendations presented by fib Bulletin no. 58 (2011), ETAG 001 (2010) and ACI 318 (2014). The influences of parameters such as the effective embedment depth (hef), bar diameter (ds), and the concrete compressive strength (fc) are analysed and discussed. The theoretical recommendations are shown to be over-conservative for both embedment depths and were, in general, inaccurate in comparison to the experimental trends. The ACI 318 (2014) was the design code which presented the best performance regarding to the predictions of the ultimate load, with an average of 1.42 for the ratio between the experimental and estimated strengths, standard deviation of 0.36, and coefficient of variation equal to 0.25.

Keywords: cast-in headed anchors, concrete cone failure, uncracked concrete, cracked concrete

Procedia PDF Downloads 177
6405 Gender Based Variability Time Series Complexity Analysis

Authors: Ramesh K. Sunkaria, Puneeta Marwaha

Abstract:

Nonlinear methods of heart rate variability (HRV) analysis are becoming more popular. It has been observed that complexity measures quantify the regularity and uncertainty of cardiovascular RR-interval time series. In the present work, SampEn has been evaluated in healthy Normal Sinus Rhythm (NSR) male and female subjects for different data lengths and tolerance level r. It is demonstrated that SampEn is small for higher values of tolerance r. Also SampEn value of healthy female group is higher than that of healthy male group for short data length and with increase in data length both groups overlap each other and it is difficult to distinguish them. The SampEn gives inaccurate results by assigning higher value to female group, because male subject have more complex HRV pattern than that of female subjects. Therefore, this traditional algorithm exhibits higher complexity for healthy female subjects than for healthy male subjects, which is misleading observation. This may be due to the fact that SampEn do not account for multiple time scales inherent in the physiologic time series and the hidden spatial and temporal fluctuations remains unexplored.

Keywords: heart rate variability, normal sinus rhythm group, RR interval time series, sample entropy

Procedia PDF Downloads 249
6404 Exploring Time-Series Phosphoproteomic Datasets in the Context of Network Models

Authors: Sandeep Kaur, Jenny Vuong, Marcel Julliard, Sean O'Donoghue

Abstract:

Time-series data are useful for modelling as they can enable model-evaluation. However, when reconstructing models from phosphoproteomic data, often non-exact methods are utilised, as the knowledge regarding the network structure, such as, which kinases and phosphatases lead to the observed phosphorylation state, is incomplete. Thus, such reactions are often hypothesised, which gives rise to uncertainty. Here, we propose a framework, implemented via a web-based tool (as an extension to Minardo), which given time-series phosphoproteomic datasets, can generate κ models. The incompleteness and uncertainty in the generated model and reactions are clearly presented to the user via the visual method. Furthermore, we demonstrate, via a toy EGF signalling model, the use of algorithmic verification to verify κ models. Manually formulated requirements were evaluated with regards to the model, leading to the highlighting of the nodes causing unsatisfiability (i.e. error causing nodes). We aim to integrate such methods into our web-based tool and demonstrate how the identified erroneous nodes can be presented to the user via the visual method. Thus, in this research we present a framework, to enable a user to explore phosphorylation proteomic time-series data in the context of models. The observer can visualise which reactions in the model are highly uncertain, and which nodes cause incorrect simulation outputs. A tool such as this enables an end-user to determine the empirical analysis to perform, to reduce uncertainty in the presented model - thus enabling a better understanding of the underlying system.

Keywords: κ-models, model verification, time-series phosphoproteomic datasets, uncertainty and error visualisation

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6403 Fast Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting under High Meteorological Variability with a Multiple Equation Time Series Approach

Authors: Charline David, Alexandre Blondin Massé, Arnaud Zinflou

Abstract:

In 2016, Clements, Hurn, and Li proposed a multiple equation time series approach for the short-term load forecasting, reporting an average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.36% on an 11-years dataset for the Queensland region in Australia. We present an adaptation of their model to the electrical power load consumption for the whole Quebec province in Canada. More precisely, we take into account two additional meteorological variables — cloudiness and wind speed — on top of temperature, as well as the use of multiple meteorological measurements taken at different locations on the territory. We also consider other minor improvements. Our final model shows an average MAPE score of 1:79% over an 8-years dataset.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, special days, time series, multiple equations, parallelization, clustering

Procedia PDF Downloads 70
6402 New Machine Learning Optimization Approach Based on Input Variables Disposition Applied for Time Series Prediction

Authors: Hervice Roméo Fogno Fotsoa, Germaine Djuidje Kenmoe, Claude Vidal Aloyem Kazé

Abstract:

One of the main applications of machine learning is the prediction of time series. But a more accurate prediction requires a more optimal model of machine learning. Several optimization techniques have been developed, but without considering the input variables disposition of the system. Thus, this work aims to present a new machine learning architecture optimization technique based on their optimal input variables disposition. The validations are done on the prediction of wind time series, using data collected in Cameroon. The number of possible dispositions with four input variables is determined, i.e., twenty-four. Each of the dispositions is used to perform the prediction, with the main criteria being the training and prediction performances. The results obtained from a static architecture and a dynamic architecture of neural networks have shown that these performances are a function of the input variable's disposition, and this is in a different way from the architectures. This analysis revealed that it is necessary to take into account the input variable's disposition for the development of a more optimal neural network model. Thus, a new neural network training algorithm is proposed by introducing the search for the optimal input variables disposition in the traditional back-propagation algorithm. The results of the application of this new optimization approach on the two single neural network architectures are compared with the previously obtained results step by step. Moreover, this proposed approach is validated in a collaborative optimization method with a single objective optimization technique, i.e., genetic algorithm back-propagation neural networks. From these comparisons, it is concluded that each proposed model outperforms its traditional model in terms of training and prediction performance of time series. Thus the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series forecasts. This proves that the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series prediction based on machine learning.

Keywords: input variable disposition, machine learning, optimization, performance, time series prediction

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6401 Degree of Approximation of Functions by Product Means

Authors: Hare Krishna Nigam

Abstract:

In this paper, for the first time, (E,q)(C,2) product summability method is introduced and two quite new results on degree of approximation of the function f belonging to Lip (alpha,r)class and W(L(r), xi(t)) class by (E,q)(C,2) product means of Fourier series, has been obtained.

Keywords: Degree of approximation, (E, q)(C, 2) means, Fourier series, Lebesgue integral, Lip (alpha, r)class, W(L(r), xi(t))class of functions

Procedia PDF Downloads 485
6400 Optimization of Gold Mining Parameters by Cyanidation

Authors: Della Saddam Housseyn

Abstract:

Gold, the quintessential noble metal, is one of the most popular metals today, given its ever-increasing cost in the international market. The Amesmessa gold deposit is one of the gold-producing deposits. The first step in our job is to analyze the ore (considered rich ore). Mineralogical and chemical analysis has shown that the general constitution of the ore is quartz in addition to other phases such as Al2O3, Fe2O3, CaO, dolomite. The second step consists of all the leaching tests carried out in rolling bottles. These tests were carried out on 14 samples to determine the maximum recovery rate and the optimum consumption of reagent (NaCN and CaO). Tests carried out on a pulp density at 50% solid, 500 ppm cyanide concentration and particle size less than 0.6 mm at alkaline pH gave a recovery rate of 94.37%.

Keywords: cyanide, DRX, FX, gold, leaching, rate of recovery, SAA

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
6399 A Hybrid Adomian Decomposition Method in the Solution of Logistic Abelian Ordinary Differential and Its Comparism with Some Standard Numerical Scheme

Authors: F. J. Adeyeye, D. Eni, K. M. Okedoye

Abstract:

In this paper we present a Hybrid of Adomian decomposition method (ADM). This is the substitution of a One-step method of Taylor’s series approximation of orders I and II, into the nonlinear part of Adomian decomposition method resulting in a convergent series scheme. This scheme is applied to solve some Logistic problems represented as Abelian differential equation and the results are compared with the actual solution and Runge-kutta of order IV in order to ascertain the accuracy and efficiency of the scheme. The findings shows that the scheme is efficient enough to solve logistic problems considered in this paper.

Keywords: Adomian decomposition method, nonlinear part, one-step method, Taylor series approximation, hybrid of Adomian polynomial, logistic problem, Malthusian parameter, Verhulst Model

Procedia PDF Downloads 371
6398 Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models

Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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6397 Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalization Admissions, and Death Cases Based on Wastewater Sars-COV-2 Surveillance Using Copula Time Series Model

Authors: Hueiwang Anna Jeng, Norou Diawara, Nancy Welch, Cynthia Jackson, Rekha Singh, Kyle Curtis, Raul Gonzalez, David Jurgens, Sasanka Adikari

Abstract:

Modeling effort is needed to predict the COVID-19 trends for developing management strategies and adaptation measures. The objective of this study was to assess whether SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater could serve as a predictor for forecasting COVID-19 cases, hospitalization cases, and death cases using copula-based time series modeling. SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in raw wastewater in Chesapeake VA was measured using the RT-qPCR method. Gaussian copula time series marginal regression model, incorporating an autoregressive moving average model and the copula function, served as a forecasting model. COVID-19 cases were correlated with wastewater viral load, hospitalization cases, and death cases. The forecasted trend of COVID-19 cases closely paralleled one of the reported cases, with over 90% of the forecasted COVID-19 cases falling within the 99% confidence interval of the reported cases. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load could serve as a predictor for COVID-19 cases and hospitalization cases.

Keywords: COVID-19, modeling, time series, copula function

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6396 Analysis of Exponential Nonuniform Transmission Line Parameters

Authors: Mounir Belattar

Abstract:

In this paper the Analysis of voltage waves that propagate along a lossless exponential nonuniform line is presented. For this analysis the parameters of this line are assumed to be varying function of the distance x along the line from the source end. The approach is based on the tow-port networks cascading presentation to derive the ABDC parameters of transmission using Picard-Carson Method which is a powerful method in getting a power series solution for distributed network because it is easy to calculate poles and zeros and solves differential equations such as telegrapher equations by an iterative sequence. So the impedance, admittance voltage and current along the line are expanded as a Taylor series in x/l where l is the total length of the line to obtain at the end, the main transmission line parameters such as voltage response and transmission and reflexion coefficients represented by scattering parameters in frequency domain.

Keywords: ABCD parameters, characteristic impedance exponential nonuniform transmission line, Picard-Carson's method, S parameters, Taylor's series

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6395 Application of Stochastic Models to Annual Extreme Streamflow Data

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

Abstract:

This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

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6394 Visualization of PM₂.₅ Time Series and Correlation Analysis of Cities in Bangladesh

Authors: Asif Zaman, Moinul Islam Zaber, Amin Ahsan Ali

Abstract:

In recent years of industrialization, the South Asian countries are being affected by air pollution due to a severe increase in fine particulate matter 2.5 (PM₂.₅). Among them, Bangladesh is one of the most polluting countries. In this paper, statistical analyses were conducted on the time series of PM₂.₅ from various districts in Bangladesh, mostly around Dhaka city. Research has been conducted on the dynamic interactions and relationships between PM₂.₅ concentrations in different zones. The study is conducted toward understanding the characteristics of PM₂.₅, such as spatial-temporal characterization, correlation of other contributors behind air pollution such as human activities, driving factors and environmental casualties. Clustering on the data gave an insight on the districts groups based on their AQI frequency as representative districts. Seasonality analysis on hourly and monthly frequency found higher concentration of fine particles in nighttime and winter season, respectively. Cross correlation analysis discovered a phenomenon of correlations among cities based on time-lagged series of air particle readings and visualization framework is developed for observing interaction in PM₂.₅ concentrations between cities. Significant time-lagged correlations were discovered between the PM₂.₅ time series in different city groups throughout the country by cross correlation analysis. Additionally, seasonal heatmaps depict that the pooled series correlations are less significant in warmer months, and among cities of greater geographic distance as well as time lag magnitude and direction of the best shifted correlated particulate matter time series among districts change seasonally. The geographic map visualization demonstrates spatial behaviour of air pollution among districts around Dhaka city and the significant effect of wind direction as the vital actor on correlated shifted time series. The visualization framework has multipurpose usage from gathering insight of general and seasonal air quality of Bangladesh to determining the pathway of regional transportation of air pollution.

Keywords: air quality, particles, cross correlation, seasonality

Procedia PDF Downloads 86
6393 The Effect of Increased Tip Area of Suction Caissons on the Penetration Resistance Coefficients

Authors: Ghaem Zamani, Farveh Aghaye Nezhad, Amin Barari

Abstract:

The installation process of caissons has usually been a challenging step in the design phase, especially in the case of suction-assisted installation. The engineering practice for estimating the caisson penetration resistance is primarily controlled by the resistance governed by inner and outer skirt friction and the tip resistance. Different methods have been proposed in the literature to evaluate the above components, while the CPT-based methodology has attained notable popularity among others. In this method, two empirical coefficients are suggested, k𝒻 and kp, which relate the frictional resistance and tip resistance to the cone penetration resistance (q𝒸), respectively. A series of jacking installation and uninstallation experiments for different soil densities were carried out in the offshore geotechnical laboratory of Aalborg University, Denmark. The main goal of these tests was to find appropriate values for empirical coefficients of the CPT-based method for the buckets with large embedment ratio (i.e., d/D=1, where d is the skirt length and D is the diameter) and increased tip area penetrated into dense sand deposits. The friction resistance effects were isolated during the pullout experiments; hence, the k𝒻 was back-measured from the tests in the absence of tip resistance. The actuator force during jacking installation equals the sum of frictional resistance and tip resistance. Therefore, the tip resistance of the bucket is calculated by subtracting the back-measured frictional resistance from penetration resistance; hence the relevant coefficient kp would be achieved. The cone penetration test was operated at different points before and after each installation attempt to measure the cone penetration resistance (q𝒸), and the average value of q𝒸 is used for calculations. The experimental results of the jacking installation tests indicated that a larger friction area considerably increased the penetration resistance; however, this effect was completely diminished when foundation suction-assisted penetration was used. Finally, the values measured for the empirical coefficient of the CPT-based method are compared with the highest expected and most probable values suggested by DNV(1992) for uniform thickness buckets.

Keywords: suction caisson, offshore geotechnics, cone penetration test, wind turbine foundation

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6392 Feasibility Study on the Application of Waste Materials for Production of Sustainable Asphalt Mixtures

Authors: Farzaneh Tahmoorian, Bijan Samali, John Yeaman

Abstract:

Road networks are expanding all over the world during the past few decades to meet the increasing freight volumes created by the population growth and industrial development. At the same time, the rate of generation of solid wastes in the society is increasing with the population growth, technological development, and changes in the lifestyle of people. Thus, the management of solid wastes has become an acute problem. Accordingly, there is a need for greater efficiency in the construction and maintenance of road networks, in reducing the overall cost, especially the utilization of natural materials such as aggregates. An efficient means to reduce construction and maintenance costs of road networks is to replace natural (virgin) materials by secondary, recycled materials. Recycling will also help to reduce pressure on landfills and demand for extraction of natural virgin materials thus ensuring sustainability. Application of solid wastes in asphalt layer reduces not only environmental issues associated with waste disposal but also the demand for virgin materials which will subsequently result in sustainability. Therefore, this research aims to investigate the feasibility of the application of some of the waste materials such as glass, construction and demolition wastes, etc. as alternative materials in pavement construction, particularly flexible pavements. To this end, various combination of different waste materials in certain percentages is considered in designing the asphalt mixture. One of the goals of this research is to determine the optimum percentage of all these materials in the mixture. This is done through a series of tests to evaluate the volumetric properties and resilient modulus of the mixture. The information and data collected from these tests are used to select the adequate samples for further assessment through advanced tests such as triaxial dynamic test and fatigue test, in order to investigate the asphalt mixture resistance to permanent deformation and also cracking. This paper presents the results of these investigations on the application of waste materials in asphalt mixture for production of a sustainable asphalt mix.

Keywords: asphalt, glass, pavement, recycled aggregate, sustainability

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6391 Mechanical Contribution of Silica Fume and Hydrated Lime Addition in Mortars Assessed by Ultrasonic Pulse Velocity Tests

Authors: Nacim Khelil, Amar Kahil, Said Boukais

Abstract:

The aim of the present study is to investigate the changes in the mechanical properties of mortars including additions of Condensed Silica Fume (CSF), Hydrated Lime (CH) or both at various amounts (5% to 15% of cement replacement) and high water ratios (w/b) (0.4 to 0.7). The physical and mechanical changes in the mixes were evaluated using non-destructive tests (Ultrasonic Pulse Velocity (UPV)) and destructive tests (crushing tests) on 28 day-long specimens consecutively, in order to assess CSF and CH replacement rate influence on the mechanical and physical properties of the mortars, as well as CSF-CH pre-mixing on the improvement of these properties. A significant improvement of the mechanical properties of the CSF, CSF-CH mortars, has been noted. CSF-CH mixes showed the best improvements exceeding 50% improvement, showing the sizable pozzolanic reaction contribution to the specimen strength development. UPV tests have shown increased velocities for CSF and CSH mixes, however no proportional evolution with compressive strengths could be noted. The results of the study show that CSF-CH addition could represent a suitable solution to significantly increase the mechanical properties of mortars.

Keywords: compressive strength, condensed silica fume, hydrated lime, pozzolanic reaction, UPV testing

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6390 Circular Raft Footings Strengthened by Stone Columns under Static Loads

Authors: R. Ziaie Moayed, B. Mohammadi-Haji

Abstract:

Stone columns have been widely employed to improve the load-settlement characteristics of soft soils. The results of two small scale displacement control loading tests on stone columns were used in order to validate numerical finite element simulations. Additionally, a series of numerical calculations of static loading have been performed on strengthened raft footing to investigate the effects of using stone columns on bearing capacity of footings. The bearing capacity of single and group of stone columns under static loading compares with unimproved ground.

Keywords: circular raft footing, numerical analysis, validation, vertically encased stone column

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6389 A Study on Functional Performance and Physical Self-esteem Levels of Differently-Abled Basket Ballplayers: A Case Series

Authors: Prerna Mohan Saxena, Avni Joshi, Raju K Parasher

Abstract:

Disability is a state of decreased functioning associated with disease, disorder, injury, or other health condition, which in the context of one’s environment is experienced as an impairment, activity limitation, or participation restriction. With the concept of disability evolving over the years, the current ICF model of disability has integrated this concept into a comprehensive whole of multiple dimensions of human functioning, including biological, psychological, social, and environmental aspects. Wheelchair basketball is one of the greatest examples of adapted sports for the disabled. Through this study, we aim to evaluate the functional performance and self-esteem levels in differently-abled pediatric wheelchair basketball players, providing an insight on their abilities and deficits and how they can be worked on at a larger level to improve overall performance. The study was conducted on 9 pediatric wheelchair basketball players at Amar Jyoti school for inclusive education Delhi their physical performance was assessed using a battery of tests, and physical self esteem was assessed using the Physical self-description instrument (PSDQ-S). Results showed that 9 participants age ranged between 10-21 years, mostly males with BMI ranging between 16.7 to 28.9 kg/m2 most of them had the experience of 5 to 6 years of playing the sport. The data showed physical performance in accordance to years of experience of playing, physical self esteem showed a different perspective, with experience players scoring less on it. This study supports a multidimensional construct of physical performance and physical self-esteem, suggesting that both may be applied on the wheelchair basketball players at competitive levels.

Keywords: ase series, physical performance, physical self-esteem, wheelchair basketball

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6388 Effect of the Keyword Strategy on Lexical Semantic Acquisition: Recognition, Retention and Comprehension in an English as Second Language Context

Authors: Fatima Muhammad Shitu

Abstract:

This study seeks to investigate the effect of the keyword strategy on lexico–semantic acquisition, recognition, retention and comprehension in an ESL context. The aim of the study is to determine whether the keyword strategy can be used to enhance acquisition. As a quasi- experimental research, the objectives of the study include: To determine the extent to which the scores obtained by the subjects, who were trained on the use of the keyword strategy for acquisition, differ at the pre-tests and the post–tests and also to find out the relationship in the scores obtained at these tests levels. The sample for the study consists of 300 hundred undergraduate ESL Students in the Federal College of Education, Kano. The seventy-five lexical items for acquisition belong to the lexical field category known as register, and they include Medical, Agriculture and Photography registers (MAP). These were divided in the ratio twenty-five (25) lexical items in each lexical field. The testing technique was used to collect the data while the descriptive and inferential statistics were employed for data analysis. For the purpose of testing, the two kinds of tests administered at each test level include the WARRT (Word Acquisition, Recognition, and Retention Test) and the CCPT (Cloze Comprehension Passage Test). The results of the study revealed that there are significant differences in the scores obtained between the pre-tests, and the post–tests and there are no correlations in the scores obtained as well. This implies that the keyword strategy has effectively enhanced the acquisition of the lexical items studied.

Keywords: keyword, lexical, semantics, strategy

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