Search results for: sociodemographic vulnerability

Authors: Falak Nawaz

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The Climate Change Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment carried out in the coastal regions of Thatta and Malir districts underscore the potential risks and challenges associated with climate change affecting water resources. This study was conducted by the author using participatory rural appraisal tools, with a greater focus on conducting focus group discussions, direct observations, key informant interviews, and other PRA tools. The assessment delves into the specific impacts of climate change along the coastal belt, concentrating on aspects such as rising sea levels, depletion of freshwater, alterations in precipitation patterns, fluctuations in water table levels, and the intrusion of saltwater into rivers. These factors have significant consequences for the availability and quality of water resources in coastal areas, manifesting in frequent migration and alterations in agriculture-based livelihood practices. Furthermore, the assessment assesses the adaptive capacity of communities and organizations in these coastal regions to effectively confront and alleviate the effects of climate change on water resources. It considers various measures, including infrastructure enhancements, water management practices, adjustments in agricultural approaches, and disaster preparedness, aiming to bolster adaptive capacity. The study's findings emphasize the necessity for prompt actions to address identified vulnerabilities and fortify the adaptive capacities of Sindh's coastal areas. This calls for comprehensive strategies and policies promoting sustainable water resource management, integrating climate change considerations, and providing essential resources and support to vulnerable communities.

Keywords: climate, climate change adaptation, disaster reselience, vulnerability, capacity, assessment

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Authors: Siti Khadijah Che Osmi, Syed Mohd Ahmad

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This paper presents a methodology to develop fragility curves for shallow tunnels so as to describe a relationship between seismic hazard and tunnel vulnerability. Emphasis is given to the influence of surrounding soil material properties because the dynamic behaviour of the tunnel mostly depends on it. Four ground properties of soils ranging from stiff to soft soils are selected. A 3D nonlinear time history analysis is used to evaluate the seismic response of the tunnel when subjected to five real earthquake ground intensities. The derived curves show the future probabilistic performance of the tunnels based on the predicted level of damage states corresponding to the peak ground acceleration. A comparison of the obtained results with the previous literature is provided to validate the reliability of the proposed fragility curves. Results show the significant role of soil properties and input motions in evaluating the seismic performance and response of shallow tunnels.

Keywords: fragility analysis, seismic performance, tunnel lining, vulnerability

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Authors: Tushar K. Routh

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If inputs are engineered in certain manners, they can influence deep neural networks’ (DNN) performances by facilitating misclassifications, a phenomenon well-known as adversarial attacks that question networks’ vulnerability. Recent studies have unfolded the relationship between vulnerability of such networks with their complexity. In this paper, the distinctive influence of additional convolutional layers at the decision boundaries of several DNN architectures was investigated. Here, to engineer inputs from widely known image datasets like MNIST, Fashion MNIST, and Cifar 10, we have exercised One Step Spectral Attack (OSSA) and Fast Gradient Method (FGM) techniques. The aftermaths of adding layers to the robustness of the architectures have been analyzed. For reasoning, separation width from linear class partitions and local geometry (curvature) near the decision boundary have been examined. The result reveals that model complexity has significant roles in adjusting relative distances from margins, as well as the local features of decision boundaries, which impact robustness.

Keywords: DNN robustness, decision boundary, local curvature, network complexity

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Authors: Josué Alfredo Tomas Machaca Fajardo, Jhon Elvis Chahua Janampa, Pedro Rau Lavado

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A flood vulnerability index was developed for the Piura River watershed in northern Peru using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to assess flood risk. The official methodology to assess risk from natural hazards in Peru was introduced in 1980 and proved effective for aiding complex decision-making. This method relies in part on decision-makers defining subjective correlations between variables to identify high-risk areas. While risk identification and ensuing response activities benefit from a qualitative understanding of influences, this method does not take advantage of the advent of national and international data collection efforts, which can supplement our understanding of risk. Furthermore, this method does not take advantage of broadly applied statistical methods such as PCA, which highlight central indicators of vulnerability. Nowadays, information processing is much faster and allows for more objective decision-making tools, such as PCA. The approach presented here develops a tool to improve the current flood risk assessment in the Peruvian basin. Hence, the spatial analysis of the census and other datasets provides a better understanding of the current land occupation and a basin-wide distribution of services and human populations, a necessary step toward ultimately reducing flood risk in Peru. PCA allows the simplification of a large number of variables into a few factors regarding social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. There is a correlation between the location of people and the water availability mainly found in rivers. For this reason, a comprehensive vision of the population location around the river basin is necessary to establish flood prevention policies. The grouping of 5x5 km gridded areas allows the spatial analysis of flood risk rather than assessing political divisions of the territory. The index was applied to the Peruvian region of Piura, where several flood events occurred in recent past years, being one of the most affected regions during the ENSO events in Peru. The analysis evidenced inequalities for the access to basic services, such as water, electricity, internet and sewage, between rural and urban areas.

Keywords: assess risk, flood risk, indicators of vulnerability, principal component analysis

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Authors: Mengdan Guo, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang

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Drought is one of the most complex and destructive natural disasters, with a huge impact on both nature and society. In recent years, adverse climate conditions and uncontrolled human activities have exacerbated the occurrence of global droughts, among which socio-economic droughts are closely related to human survival. The study of socio-economic drought risk assessment is crucial for sustainable social development. Therefore, this study comprehensively considered the risk of disaster causing factors, the exposure level of the disaster-prone environment, and the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body to construct a socio-economic drought risk assessment model for Chuxiong Prefecture in Yunnan Province. Firstly, a threedimensional frequency analysis of intensity area duration drought was conducted, followed by a statistical analysis of the drought risk of the socio-economic system. Secondly, a grid analysis model was constructed to assess the exposure levels of different agents and study the effects of drought on regional crop growth, industrial economic growth, and human consumption thresholds. Thirdly, an agricultural vulnerability model for different irrigation levels was established by using the DSSAT crop model. Industrial economic vulnerability and domestic water vulnerability under the impact of drought were investigated by constructing a standardized socio-economic drought index and coupling water loss. Finally, the socio-economic drought risk was assessed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results show that the frequency of drought occurrence in Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province is relatively high, with high population and economic exposure concentrated in urban areas of various counties and districts, and high agricultural exposure concentrated in mountainous and rural areas. Irrigation can effectively reduce agricultural vulnerability in Chuxiong, and the yield loss rate under the 20mm winter irrigation scenario decreased by 10.7% compared to the rain fed scenario. From the perspective of comprehensive risk, the distribution of long-term socio-economic drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is relatively consistent, with the more severe areas mainly concentrated in Chuxiong City and Lufeng County, followed by counties such as Yao'an, Mouding and Yuanmou. Shuangbai County has the lowest socio-economic drought risk, which is basically consistent with the economic distribution trend of Chuxiong Prefecture. And in June, July, and August, the drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is generally high. These results can provide constructive suggestions for the allocation of water resources and the construction of water conservancy facilities in Chuxiong Prefecture, and provide scientific basis for more effective drought prevention and control. Future research is in the areas of data quality and availability, climate change impacts, human activity impacts, and countermeasures for a more comprehensive understanding and effective response to drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture.

Keywords: DSSAT model, risk assessment, socio-economic drought, standardized socio-economic drought index

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Authors: Arunima Datta, Prathama Guha Chaudhuri, Ashis Mukhopadhyay

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Background: Acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) is one of the newer forms (third wave) therapy. This therapy helps a cancer patient to increase acceptance level about their disease as well as their present situation. Breast cancer patients are known to suffer from depression and mild cognitive impairment; both affect their quality of life. Objectives:The present study had assessed effect of structured ACT intervention on cognitive function and acceptance level among breast cancer patients who were undergoing chemotherapy. Method: Data was collected from 123 breast cancer patients those who were undergoing chemotherapy were willing to undergo psychological treatment, with no history of past psychiatric illness. Their baseline of cognitive function and acceptance levels were assessed using validated tools. The effect of sociodemographic factors and clinical factors on cognitive function was determined at baseline.The participants were randomly divided into two groups: experimental (ACT, 4 sessions over 2 months) and control group. Cognitive function and acceptance level were measured during post intervention on 2months follow-up. Appropriate statistical analyses were performed to determine the effect on cognitive function and acceptance level in two groups. Result: At baseline, the factors that significantly influenced slower speed of task performance were ER PR HER2 status; number of chemo cycle, treatment type (Adjuvant and neo-adjuvant) was related with that. Sociodemographic characteristics did not show any significant difference between slow and fast performance. Per and post intervention analysis showed that ACT intervention resulted in significant difference both in terms of speed of cognitive performance and acceptance level. Conclusion: ACT is an effective therapeutic option for treating mild cognitive impairment and improve acceptance level among breast cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy.

Keywords: acceptance and commitment therapy, breast cancer, quality of life, cognitive function

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Authors: Agbortoko Manyigbe Ayuk Nkem, Eno Cynthia Osuh

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This paper sets to examine the relationship between climate change and urban livelihood through a vulnerability assessment of the urban poor in Douala. Urban development in Douala places priority towards industrial and city-centre development with little focus on the urban poor in terms of housing units and areas of sustenance. With the high rate of urbanisation and increased land prices, the urban poor are forced to occupy marginal lands which are mainly wetlands, wastelands and along abandoned neighbourhoods prone to natural hazards. Due to climate change and its effects, these wetlands are constantly flooded thereby destroying homes, properties, and crops. Also, most of these urban dwellers have found solace in urban agriculture as a means for survival. However, since agriculture in tropical regions like Cameroon depends largely on seasonal rainfall, the changes in rainfall pattern has led to misplaced periods for crop planting and a huge wastage of resources as rainfall becomes very unreliable with increased temperature levels. Data for the study was obtained from both primary and secondary sources. Secondary sources included published materials related to climate change and vulnerability. Primary data was obtained through focus-group discussions with some urban farmers while a stratified sampling of residents within marginal lands was done. Each stratum was randomly sampled to obtain information on different stressors related to climate change and their effect on livelihood. Findings proved that the high rate of rural-urban migration into Douala has led to increased prevalence of the urban poor and their vulnerability to climate change as evident in their constant fight against flood from unexpected sea level rise and irregular rainfall pattern for urban agriculture. The study also proved that women were most vulnerable as they depended solely on urban agriculture and its related activities like retailing agricultural products in different urban markets which to them serves as a main source of income in the attainment of basic needs for the family. Adaptation measures include the constant use of sand bags, raised makeshifts as well as cultivation along streams, planting after evidence of constant rainfall has become paramount for sustainability.

Keywords: adaptation, Douala, Cameroon, climate change, development, livelihood, vulnerability

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Authors: Md Kamrul Hassan

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Adaptation interventions are the common response to manage the vulnerabilities of climate change. The nature of adaptation intervention depends on the degree of vulnerability and the capacity of a society. The coping interventions can take the form of hard adaptation – utilising technologies and capital goods like dykes, embankments, seawalls, and/or soft adaptation – engaging knowledge and information sharing, capacity building, policy and strategy development, and innovation. Hard adaptation is quite capital intensive but provides immediate relief from climate change vulnerabilities. This type of adaptation is not real development, as the investment for the adaptation cannot improve the performance – just maintain the status quo of a social or ecological system, and often lead to maladaptation in the long-term. Maladaptation creates a two-way loss for a society – interventions bring further vulnerability on top of the existing vulnerability and investment for getting rid of the consequence of interventions. Hard adaptation is popular to the vulnerable groups, but it focuses so much on the immediate solution and often ignores the environmental issues and future risks of climate change. On the other hand, soft adaptation is education oriented where vulnerable groups learn how to live with climate change impacts. Soft adaptation interventions build the capacity of vulnerable groups through training, innovation, and support, which might enhance the resilience of a system. In consideration of long-term sustainability, soft adaptation can contribute more to resilience than hard adaptation. Taking a developing society as the study context, this study aims to investigate and understand the effectiveness of the adaptation interventions of the coastal community of Sundarbans mangrove forest in Bangladesh. Applying semi-structured interviews with a range of Sundarbans stakeholders including community residents, tourism demand-supply side stakeholders, and conservation and management agencies (e.g., Government, NGOs and international agencies) and document analysis, this paper reports several key insights regarding climate change adaptation. Firstly, while adaptation interventions may offer a short-term to medium-term solution to climate change vulnerabilities, interventions need to be revised for long-term sustainability. Secondly, soft adaptation offers advantages in terms of resilience in a rapidly changing environment, as it is flexible and dynamic. Thirdly, there is a challenge to communicate to educate vulnerable groups to understand more about the future effects of hard adaptation interventions (and the potential for maladaptation). Fourthly, hard adaptation can be used if the interventions do not degrade the environmental balance and if the investment of interventions does not exceed the economic benefit of the interventions. Overall, the goal of an adaptation intervention should be to enhance the resilience of a social or ecological system so that the system can with stand present vulnerabilities and future risks. In order to be sustainable, adaptation interventions should be designed in such way that those can address vulnerabilities and risks of climate change in a long-term timeframe.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, maladaptation, resilience, Sundarbans, sustainability, vulnerability

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Authors: Chenyi Ma

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Background: The second costliest hurricane in U.S. history, Sandy landed in southern New Jersey on October 29, 2012, and struck the entire state with high winds and torrential rains. The disaster killed more than 100 people, left more than 8.5 million households without power, and damaged or destroyed more than 200,000 homes across the state. Immediately after the disaster, public policy support was provided in nine coastal counties that constituted 98% of the major and severely damaged housing units in NJ overall. The programs include Individuals and Households Assistance Program, Small Business Loan Program, National Flood Insurance Program, and the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) Public Assistance Grant Program. In the most severely affected counties, additional funding was provided through Community Development Block Grant: Reconstruction, Rehabilitation, Elevation, and Mitigation Program, and Homeowner Resettlement Program. How these policies individually and as a whole impacted housing recovery across communities with different socioeconomic and demographic profiles has not yet been studied, particularly in relation to damage levels. The concept of community social vulnerability has been widely used to explain many aspects of natural disasters. Nevertheless, how communities are vulnerable has been less fully examined. Community resilience has been conceptualized as a protective factor against negative impacts from disasters, however, how community resilience buffers the effects of vulnerability is not yet known. Because housing recovery is a dynamic social and economic process that varies according to context, this study examined the path from community vulnerability and resilience to housing recovery looking at both community characteristics and policy interventions. Sample/Methods: This retrospective longitudinal case study compared a literature-identified set of pre-disaster community characteristics, the effects of multiple public policy programs, and a set of time-variant community resilience indicators to changes in housing stock (operationally defined by percent of building permits to total occupied housing units/households) between 2010 and 2014, two years before and after Hurricane Sandy. The sample consisted of 51 municipalities in the nine counties in which between 4% and 58% of housing units suffered either major or severe damage. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to determine the path from vulnerability to the housing recovery, via multiple public programs, separately and as a whole, and via the community resilience indicators. The spatial analytical tool ArcGIS 10.2 was used to show the spatial relations between housing recovery patterns and community vulnerability and resilience. Findings: Holding damage levels constant, communities with higher proportions of Hispanic households had significantly lower levels of housing recovery while communities with households with an adult >age 65 had significantly higher levels of the housing recovery. The contrast was partly due to the different levels of total public support the two types of the community received. Further, while the public policy programs individually mediated the negative associations between African American and female-headed households and housing recovery, communities with larger proportions of African American, female-headed and Hispanic households were “vulnerable” to lower levels of housing recovery because they lacked sufficient public program support. Even so, higher employment rates and incomes buffered vulnerability to lower housing recovery. Because housing is the "wobbly pillar" of the welfare state, the housing needs of these particular groups should be more fully addressed by disaster policy.

Keywords: community social vulnerability, community resilience, hurricane, public policy

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Authors: Thani R. Said

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There is a wide concern on the academic literatures that the world is on course to experience “severe and pervasive” negative impacts from climate change unless it takes rapid action to slash its greenhouse gas emissions. The big threat however, is more belligerent in the third world countries, small islands states in particular. Most of the academic literatures claims that the livelihoods, economic and ecological landscapes of most of the coastal communities are into serious danger due to the peril of climate change. However, focusing the climate change alone and paying less intention to the surrounding stressors which sometimes are apparent then the climate change its self has now placed at the greater concern on academic debates. The recently studies have begun to question such narrowed assessment of climate change intervening programs from both its methodological and theoretical perspectives as related with livelihoods and the landscapes of the coastal communities. Looking climate as alone as an ostentatious threat doesn't yield the yield an appropriate mechanisms to address the problem in its totality and tend to provide the partially picture of the real problem striking the majority of the peoples living in the coastal areas of small islands states, Zanzibar in particular. By using the multiples human grounded knowledge approaches, the objective of this study is to go beyond the mere climate change by analyzing other multiples stressors that real challenging and treating the livelihoods, economic and ecological landscapes of the coastal communities through dialectic understanding, vulnerability and adaptive mechanisms at their own localities. To be more focus and to capture the full picture on this study special intention will be given to those areas were climate changes intervening programs have been onto place, the study will further compare and contrast between the two islands communities, Unguja and Pemba taking into account their respective diverse economic and geographical landscapes prevailed.

Keywords: climate change, multiple stressors, livelihoods, vulnerability-adaptation

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Authors: Ahmet Parlak, Celalettin Bilgen

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In order to create an effective early warning system, Identification of the risks, preparation and carrying out risk modeling of risk scenarios, taking into account the shortcomings of the old disaster scenarios should be used to improve the system. In the light of this, the importance of risk modeling in creating an effective early warning system is understood. In the scope of TAFRISK project risk modeling trend analysis report on risk modeling developed and a demonstration was conducted for Risk Modeling for flood and mass movements. For risk modeling R&D, studies have been conducted to determine the information, and source of the information, to be gathered, to develop algorithms and to adapt the current algorithms to Turkey’s conditions for determining the risk score in the high disaster risk areas. For each type of the disaster; Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), Local Disaster Index (LDI), Prevalent Vulnerability Index (PVI), Risk Management Index (RMI) have been developed as disaster indices taking danger, sensitivity, fragility, and vulnerability, the physical and economic damage into account in the appropriate scale of the respective type.

Keywords: disaster, hazard, risk modeling, sensor

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Authors: Joseph M. Njoroge

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The need for urgent adaptation have triggered tourism stakeholders and research community to develop generic adaptation framework(s) for national, regional and or local tourism desti-nations. Such frameworks have been proposed to guide the tourism industry in the adaptation process with an aim of reducing tourism industry’s vulnerability and to enhance their ability to cope to climate associated externalities. However research show that current approaches are far from sustainability since the adaptation options sought are usually closely associated with development needs-‘business as usual’-where the implication of adaptation to social justice and environmental integrity are often neglected. Based on this view there is a need to look at adaptation beyond addressing vulnerability and resilience to include the need for adaptation to enhance social justice and environmental integrity. This paper reviews the existing adaptation frameworks/models and evaluates their suitability in enhancing sustainable adaptation for regional tourist destinations. It is noted that existing frameworks contradicts the basic ‘principles of sustainable adaptation’. Further attempts are made to propose a Sustainable Regional Tourism Adaptation Framework (SRTAF) to assist regional tourism stakeholders in the achieving sustainable adaptation.

Keywords: sustainable adaptation, sustainability principles, sustainability portfolio, Regional Tourism

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Authors: J. K. Pis-An

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Objective: The purpose of the study was to examine the vulnerability of farmers to the effects of climate change, specifically the El Niño phenomenon was felt in the Philippines in 2009-2010. Methods: KAP Survey determines behavioral response to vulnerability to the effects of El Niño. Body Mass Index: Dietary Assessment using 24-hour food recall. Results: 75% of the respondents claimed that crop significantly decreased during drought. Indications that households of farmers are large where 51.6% are composed of 6-10 family members with 68% annual incomes below Php 100,00. Anthropometric assessment showed that the prevalence of Chronic Energy Deficiency Grade 1 among females 17% and 28.57% for low normal. While male body mass index result for chronic energy deficiency grade 1 10%, low normal 18.33% and and obese grade 1, 31.67%. Dietary assessment of macronutrient intake of carbohydrates, protein, and fat 31.6 % among respondents are below recommended amounts. Micronutrient deficiency of calcium, iron, vit. A, thiamine, riboflavin, niacin, and Vit. C. Conclusion: Majority of the rural populations are engaged into farming livelihood that makes up the backbone of their economic growth. Placing the current nutritional status of the farmers in the context of food security, there are reasons to believe that the status will go for worse if the extreme climatic conditions will once again prevail in the region. Farmers rely primarily on home grown crops for their food supply, a reduction in farm production during drought is expected to adversely affect dietary intake. The local government therefore institute programs to increase food resiliency and to prioritize health of the population as the moving force for productivity and development.

Keywords: world health organization, united nation framework convention on climate change, anthropometric, macronutrient, micronutrient

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Authors: Pierre Mintom, William Djeukeu Asongni, Michelle Moni, William Dakam, Christine Fernande Nyangono Biyegue.

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Background: In order to prevent congestive heart failure, control of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia is necessary because those risk factors frequently occur in combination. Objective: The aim of the study is to determine the prevalence and risk factors of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and double burden HTA-Hypercholesterolemia in patients with congestive heart failure. Methodology: A database of 98 patients suffering from congestive heart failure was used. The latter were recruited from August 15, 2017, to March 5, 2018, in the Cardiology department of Deido District Hospital of Douala. This database provides information on sociodemographic parameters, biochemical examinations, characteristics of heart failure and food consumption. ESC/ESH and NCEP-ATPIII definitions were used to define Hypercholesterolemia (total cholesterol ≥200mg/dl), Hypertension (SBP≥140mmHg and/or DBP≥90mmHg). Double burden hypertension-hypercholesterolemia was defined as follows: total cholesterol (CT)≥200mg/dl, SBP≥140mmHg and DBP≥90mmHg. Results: The prevalence of hypertension (HTA), hypercholesterolemia (hyperchol) and double burden HTA-Hyperchol were 61.2%, 66.3% and 45.9%, respectively. No sociodemographic factor was associated with hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and double burden, but Male gender was significantly associated (p<0.05) with hypercholesterolemia. HypoHDLemia significantly increased hypercholesterolemia and the double burden by 19.664 times (p=0.001) and 14.968 times (p=0.021), respectively. Regarding dietary habits, the consumption of rice, peanuts and derivatives and cottonseed oil respectively significantly (p<0.05) exposed to the occurrence of hypertension. The consumption of tomatoes, green bananas, corn and derivatives, peanuts and derivatives and cottonseed oil significantly exposed (p<0.05) to the occurrence of hypercholesterolemia. The consumption of palm oil and cottonseed oil exposed the occurrence of the double burden of hypertension-hypercholesterolemia. Consumption of eggs protects against hypercholesterolemia, and consumption of peanuts and tomatoes protects against the double burden. Conclusion: hypercholesterolemia associated with hypertension appears as a complicating factor of congestive heart failure. Key risk factors are mainly diet-based, suggesting the importance of nutritional education for patients. New management protocols emphasizing diet should be considered.

Keywords: risk factors, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, congestive heart failure

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Authors: Ilham S. M. Elsayed

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The purpose of this study is to investigate Alahsa Governorate status and its vulnerability to generate urban heat islands. Alahsa Governorate is a famous oasis in the Arabic Peninsula including several oil centers. Extensive literature review was done to collect previous relative data on the urban heat island of Alahsa Governorate. Data used for the purpose of this research were collected from authorized bodies who control weather station networks over Alahsa Governorate, Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia. Although, the number of weather station networks within the region is very limited and the analysis using GIS software and its techniques is difficult and limited, the data analyzed confirm an increase in temperature for more than 2 °C from 2004 to 2014. Such increase is considerable whenever human health and comfort are the concern. The increase of temperature within one decade confirms the availability of urban heat islands. The study concludes that, Alahsa Governorate is vulnerable to create urban heat islands and more attention should be drawn to strategic planning of the governorate that is developing with a high pace and considerable increasing levels of urbanization.

Keywords: Alahsa Governorate, population density, Urban Heat Island, weather station

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Authors: Senesh Wijayarathne

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This study focuses on how someone could develop a Buffer Overflow and could use that to exploit the SLMail Server. This study uses a Kali Linux V2018.4 Virtual Machine and Windows 7 - Internet Explorer V8 Virtual Machine (IPv4 Address - 192.168.56.107). This study starts by sending continued bytes to the SLMail Server to find the crashing point range and creating a unique pattern of the length of the crashing point range to control the Extended Instruction Pointer (EIP). Then by sending all characters to SLMail Server, we could observe and find which characters are not rendered properly by the software, also known as Bad Characters. By finding the ‘Jump to the ESP register (JMP ESP) and with the help of ‘Mona Modules’, we could use msfvenom to create a non-stage windows reverse shell payload. By including all the details gathered previously on one script, we could get a system-level reverse shell of the Windows 7 PC. The end of this paper will discuss how to mitigate this vulnerability.

Keywords: slmail server, extended instruction pointer, jump to the esp register, bad characters, virtual machine, windows 7, kali Linux, buffer overflow, Seattle lab, vulnerability

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Authors: Stefano Fantin

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The present analysis outcomes from the research undertaken in the course of the European-funded project EUNITY, which targets the gaps in research and development on cybersecurity and privacy between Europe and Japan. Under these auspices, the research presents a study on the policy approach of Japan, the EU and a number of Member States of the Union with regard to the handling and discovery of software vulnerabilities, with the aim of identifying methodological differences and similarities. This research builds upon a functional comparative analysis of both public policies and legal instruments from the identified jurisdictions. The result of this analysis is based on semi-structured interviews with EUNITY partners, as well as by the participation of the researcher to a recent report from the Center for EU Policy Study on software vulnerability. The European Union presents a rather fragmented legal framework on software vulnerabilities. The presence of a number of different legislations at the EU level (including Network and Information Security Directive, Critical Infrastructure Directive, Directive on the Attacks at Information Systems and the Proposal for a Cybersecurity Act) with no clear focus on such a subject makes it difficult for both national governments and end-users (software owners, researchers and private citizens) to gain a clear understanding of the Union’s approach. Additionally, the current data protection reform package (general data protection regulation), seems to create legal uncertainty around security research. To date, at the member states level, a few efforts towards transparent practices have been made, namely by the Netherlands, France, and Latvia. This research will explain what policy approach such countries have taken. Japan has started implementing a coordinated vulnerability disclosure policy in 2004. To date, two amendments can be registered on the framework (2014 and 2017). The framework is furthermore complemented by a series of instruments allowing researchers to disclose responsibly any new discovery. However, the policy has started to lose its efficiency due to a significant increase in reports made to the authority in charge. To conclude, the research conducted reveals two asymmetric policy approaches, time-wise and content-wise. The analysis therein will, therefore, conclude with a series of policy recommendations based on the lessons learned from both regions, towards a common approach to the security of European and Japanese markets, industries and citizens.

Keywords: cybersecurity, vulnerability, European Union, Japan

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Authors: Gustavo Cruz-Bello

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Progreso is a coastal community in Yucatan, Mexico, highly exposed to floods produced by severe storms and tropical cyclones. A participatory cartography approach was conducted to help to reduce floods disasters and assess social vulnerability within the community. The first step was to engage local authorities in risk management to facilitate the process. Two workshop were conducted, in the first, a poster size printed high spatial resolution satellite image of the town was used to gather information from the participants: eight women and seven men, among them construction workers, students, government employees and fishermen, their ages ranged between 23 and 58 years old. For the first task, participants were asked to locate emblematic places and place them in the image to familiarize with it. Then, they were asked to locate areas that get flooded, the buildings that they use as refuges, and to list actions that they usually take to reduce vulnerability, as well as to collectively come up with others that might reduce disasters. The spatial information generated at the workshops was digitized and integrated into a GIS environment. A printed version of the map was reviewed by local risk management experts, who validated feasibility of proposed actions. For the second workshop, we retrieved the information back to the community for feedback. Additionally a survey was applied in one household per block in the community to obtain socioeconomic, prevention and adaptation data. The information generated from the workshops was contrasted, through T and Chi Squared tests, with the survey data in order to probe the hypothesis that poorer or less educated people, are less prepared to face floods (more vulnerable) and live near or among higher presence of floods. Results showed that a great majority of people in the community are aware of the hazard and are prepared to face it. However, there was not a consistent relationship between regularly flooded areas with people’s average years of education, house services, or house modifications against heavy rains to be prepared to hazards. We could say that the participatory cartography intervention made participants aware of their vulnerability and made them collectively reflect about actions that can reduce disasters produced by floods. They also considered that the final map could be used as a communication and negotiation instrument with NGO and government authorities. It was not found that poorer and less educated people are located in areas with higher presence of floods.

Keywords: climate change, floods, Mexico, participatory mapping, social vulnerability

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Authors: Beatriz González-rodrigo, Diego Hidalgo-leiva, Omar Flores, Claudia Germoso, Maribel Jiménez-martínez, Laura Navas-sánchez, Belén Orta, Nicola Tarque, Orlando Hernández- Rubio, Miguel Marchamalo, Juan Gregorio Rejas, Belén Benito-oterino

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Cities facing seismic hazard necessitate detailed risk assessments for effective urban planning and vulnerability identification, ensuring the safety and sustainability of urban infrastructure. Comprehensive studies involving seismic hazard, vulnerability, and exposure evaluations are pivotal for estimating potential losses and guiding proactive measures against seismic events. However, broad-scale traditional risk studies limit consideration of specific local threats and identify vulnerable housing within a structural typology. Achieving precise results at neighbourhood levels demands higher resolution seismic hazard exposure, and vulnerability studies. This research aims to bolster sustainability and safety against seismic disasters in three Central American and Caribbean capitals. It integrates geospatial techniques and artificial intelligence into seismic risk studies, proposing cost-effective methods for exposure data collection and damage prediction. The methodology relies on prior seismic threat studies in pilot zones, utilizing existing exposure and vulnerability data in the region. Emphasizing detailed building attributes enables the consideration of behaviour modifiers affecting seismic response. The approach aims to generate detailed risk scenarios, facilitating prioritization of preventive actions pre-, during, and post-seismic events, enhancing decision-making certainty. Detailed risk scenarios necessitate substantial investment in fieldwork, training, research, and methodology development. Regional cooperation becomes crucial given similar seismic threats, urban planning, and construction systems among involved countries. The outcomes hold significance for emergency planning and national and regional construction regulations. The success of this methodology depends on cooperation, investment, and innovative approaches, offering insights and lessons applicable to regions facing moderate seismic threats with vulnerable constructions. Thus, this framework aims to fortify resilience in seismic-prone areas and serves as a reference for global urban planning and disaster management strategies. In conclusion, this research proposes a comprehensive framework for seismic risk assessment in high-risk urban areas, emphasizing detailed studies at finer resolutions for precise vulnerability evaluations. The approach integrates regional cooperation, geospatial technologies, and adaptive fragility curve adjustments to enhance risk assessment accuracy, guiding effective mitigation strategies and emergency management plans.

Keywords: assessment, behaviour modifiers, emergency management, mitigation strategies, resilience, vulnerability

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Authors: Cindy Sahera, Sarwono Sutikno

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Rapid technological developments also have negative impacts, namely the increasing criminal cases based on technology or cybercrime. One technique that can be used to conduct cybercrime attacks are phishing email. The issue is whether the user is aware that email can be misused by others so that it can harm the user's own? This research was conducted to measure the susceptibility of selected targets against email abuse. The objectives of this research are measurement of targets’ susceptibility and find vulnerability in email recipient. There are three steps being taken in this research, (1) the information gathering phase, (2) the design phase, and (3) the execution phase. The first step includes the collection of the information necessary to carry out an attack on a target. The next step is to make the design of an attack against a target. The last step is to send phishing emails to the target. The levels of susceptibility are three: level 1, level 2 and level 3. Level 1 indicates a low level of targets’ susceptibility, level 2 indicates the intermediate level of targets’ susceptibility, and level 3 indicates a high level of targets’ susceptibility. The results showed that users who are on level 1 and level 2 more that level 3, which means the user is not too careless. However, it does not mean the user to be safe. There are still vulnerabilities that may occur, such as automatic location detection when opening emails and automatic downloaded malware as user clicks a link in the email.

Keywords: cybercrime, email phishing, susceptibility, vulnerability

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Authors: Syed Adnan, Javed Iqbal

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In urban and rural areas groundwater is the most economic natural source of drinking. Groundwater resources of Pakistan are degraded due to high population growth and increased industrial development. A study was conducted in district Peshawar to assess groundwater vulnerable zones using GIS based DRASTIC model. Six input parameters (groundwater depth, groundwater recharge, aquifer material, soil type, slope and hydraulic conductivity) were used in the DRASTIC model to generate the groundwater vulnerable zones. Each parameter was divided into different ranges or media types and a subjective rating from 1-10 was assigned to each factor where 1 represented very low impact on pollution potential and 10 represented very high impact. Weight multiplier from 1-5 was used to balance and enhance the importance of each factor. The DRASTIC model scores obtained varied from 47 to 147. Using quantile classification scheme these values were reclassified into three zones i.e. low, moderate and high vulnerable zones. The areas of these zones were calculated. The final result indicated that about 400 km2, 506 km2, and 375 km2 were classified as low, moderate, and high vulnerable areas, respectively. It is recommended that the most vulnerable zones should be treated on first priority to facilitate the inhabitants for drinking purposes.

Keywords: DRASTIC model, groundwater vulnerability, GIS in groundwater, drinking sources

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Authors: Pedro Martinez-Santos, Víctor Gómez-Escalonilla, Silvia Díaz-Alcaide, Esperanza Montero, Miguel Martín-Loeches

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Groundwater monitoring networks are critical in evaluating the vulnerability of groundwater resources to depletion and contamination, both in space and time. Groundwater monitoring networks typically grow over decades, often in organic fashion, with relatively little overall planning. The groundwater monitoring networks in the Madrid area, Spain, were reviewed for the purpose of identifying gaps and opportunities for improvement. Spatial analysis reveals the presence of various monitoring networks belonging to different institutions, with several hundred observation wells in an area of approximately 4000 km2. This represents several thousand individual data entries, some going back to the early 1970s. Major issues included overlap between the networks, unknown screen depth/vertical distribution for many observation boreholes, uneven time series, uneven monitored species, and potentially suboptimal locations. Results also reveal there is sufficient information to carry out a spatial and temporal analysis of groundwater vulnerability based on machine learning applications. These can contribute to improve the overall planning of monitoring networks’ expansion into the future.

Keywords: groundwater monitoring, observation networks, machine learning, madrid

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Authors: Soorya Vennila

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A comprehensive study of malaria in 165 villages (hamlets) in Harur block, Dharmapuri district, has revealed the fact that there are distinct episodes of malaria due to An. culicifacies, the vector, causes persistent transmission in the revenue village called Vedakatamaduvu. A total of 300 household adult samples are randomly selected to study both quantitatively and qualitatively the vulnerability of malaria. On the basis of the response, the problem uncommon with groups was identified as the outdoor routine, particularly open defecation, with which the samples needed to be stratified into two major groups; users of toilets 21 and those who practice open defecation 279. Open defecation, as the habit-based vulnerability, is measured with the Pearson correlation coefficient to estimate the relationship between malaria and open defecation. It is also verified from the literature that plant fluids provide mosquitoes not only with energy but also with nutrition, to the extent that they can develop fertile eggs. In the endemic areas, the bushy Presopis Juliflora, which naturally serves as a feeding and resting spot for mosquitoes, serves as a cover to practice open defecation as well. Eventually, those who get resort to Presopis for open defecation have a higher chance of getting exposed to mosquito bites and being infected with malaria. The study concludes that the combination of bushy Prosopis Juliflora and open defecation leaves the place perpetually vulnerable to malaria.

Keywords: Malaria, open defecation, endemic, presopis juliflora

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risks are intimately linked to human vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially insecurity, and risk. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means increasing security and decreasing risk. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risks (including threats, assaults, crisis etc.), is to understand the vulnerabilities these external phenomena evoke in humans. As is argued, the basis of risk evaluation, as well as responses, is the more or less subjective perception by the individual person, or a group of persons, exposed to the external event or phenomena in question. This will be determined primarily by the vulnerability or vulnerabilities that the external factor are perceived to evoke. In this way, risk perception is primarily an inward dynamic, rather than an outward one. Therefore, a route towards an understanding of the perception of risks, is a closer scrutiny of the vulnerabilities which they can evoke, thereby approaching an understanding of what in the paper is called the essence of risk (including threat, assault etc.), or that which a certain perceived risk means to an individual or group of individuals. As a necessary basis for gauging the wide spectrum of potential risks and their meaning, the paper proposes a model of human vulnerabilities, drawing from i.a. a long tradition of needs theory. In order to account for the subjectivity factor, which mediates between the innate vulnerabilities on the one hand, and the event or phenomenon out there on the other hand, an ensuing ontological discussion about the timespace characteristics of risk/threat/assault as perceived by humans leads to the positing of two dimensions. These two dimensions are applied on the vulnerabilities, resulting in a modelling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which are related to each other and together represent a dynamic whole. In approaching the problem of risk perception, the paper thus defines the relevant realms of vulnerabilities, depicting them as a dynamic whole. With reference to a substantial body of literature and a growing international policy trend since the 1990s, this model is put in the language of human security - a concept relevant not only for international security studies and policy, but also for other academic disciplines and spheres of human endeavor.

Keywords: human security, timespace, vulnerabilities, risk perception

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Authors: Aiman Mazhar Qureshi, Ahmed Rachid

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Extreme heat events are emerging human environmental health concerns in dense urban areas due to anthropogenic activities. High spatial and temporal resolution heat maps are important for urban heat adaptation and mitigation, helping to indicate hotspots that are required for the attention of city planners. The Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) is the important approach used by decision-makers and urban planners to identify heat-vulnerable communities and areas that require heat stress mitigation strategies. Amiens is a medium-sized French city, where the average temperature has been increasing since the year 2000 by +1°C. Extreme heat events are recorded in the month of July for the last three consecutive years, 2018, 2019 and 2020. Poor air quality, especially ground-level ozone, has been observed mainly during the same hot period. In this study, we evaluated the HVI in Amiens during extreme heat days recorded last three years (2018,2019,2020). The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique is used for fine-scale vulnerability mapping. The main data we considered for this study to develop the HVI model are (a) socio-economic and demographic data; (b) Air pollution; (c) Land use and cover; (d) Elderly heat-illness; (e) socially vulnerable; (f) Remote sensing data (Land surface temperature (LST), mean elevation, NDVI and NDWI). The output maps identified the hot zones through comprehensive GIS analysis. The resultant map shows that high HVI exists in three typical areas: (1) where the population density is quite high and the vegetation cover is small (2) the artificial surfaces (built-in areas) (3) industrial zones that release thermal energy and ground-level ozone while those with low HVI are located in natural landscapes such as rivers and grasslands. The study also illustrates the system theory with a causal diagram after data analysis where anthropogenic activities and air pollution appear in correspondence with extreme heat events in the city. Our suggested index can be a useful tool to guide urban planners and municipalities, decision-makers and public health professionals in targeting areas at high risk of extreme heat and air pollution for future interventions adaptation and mitigation measures.

Keywords: heat vulnerability index, heat mapping, heat health-illness, remote sensing, urban heat mitigation

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Authors: Brian Tung, Yam Wing Siu, Tsun Se Cheong

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Purpose: This research aims to explore how personal and environmental factors, especially the socio-economic changes and behavioral changes fostered by the COVID-19 outbreak pandemic, affect the financial vulnerability of a specific segment of people in financial distress. Innovative research methodology of machine learning will be applied to data collected from over 300 local individuals in Hong Kong seeking counseling or similar services in recent years. Results: First, machine learning has found that too much exposure to digital services and information on digitized services may lead to adverse effects on respondents’ financial vulnerability. Second, the improvement in financial literacy level provides benefits to the financially vulnerable group, especially those respondents who have started with a lower level. Third, serious addiction to digital technology can lead to worsened debt servicing ability. Machine learning also has found a strong correlation between debt servicing situations and income-seeking behavior as well as spending behavior. In addition, if the vulnerable groups are able to make appropriate investments, they can reduce the probability of incurring financial distress. Finally, being too active in borrowing and repayment can result in a higher likelihood of over-indebtedness. Conclusion: Findings can be employed in formulating a better counseling strategy for professionals. Debt counseling services can be more preventive in nature. For example, according to the findings, with a low level of financial literacy, the respondents are prone to overspending and unable to react properly to the e-marketing promotion messages pop-up from digital services or even falling into financial/investment scams. In addition, people with low levels of financial knowledge will benefit from financial education. Therefore, financial education programs could include tech-savvy matters as special features.

Keywords: personal finance, digitization of the economy, COVID-19 pandemic, addiction to digital technology, financial vulnerability

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Authors: B. S. Choudri

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Introduction: Climate change is a major threat to rural livelihoods and to food security in the developing world, including Oman. The aim of this study is to provide a basis for policymakers and researchers in order to understand the impacts of climate change on agriculture and developing adaptation strategies in Oman. Methodology: The data was collected from different agricultural areas across the country with the help of a questionnaire survey among farmers, discussion with community, and observations at the field level. Results: The analysis of data collected from different areas within the country shows a shift in the sowing period of major crops and increased temperatures over recent years. Farmer community is adopting through diversification of crops, use of heat-tolerant species, and improved measures of soil and water conservation. Agriculture has been the main livelihood for most of the farmer communities in rural areas in the country. Conclusions: In order to reduce the effects of climate change at the local and farmer communities, risk reduction would be important along with an in-depth analysis of the vulnerability. Therefore, capacity building of local farmers and providing them with scientific knowledge, mainstreaming adaptation into development activities would be essential with additional funding and subsidies.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, vulnerability, adaptation

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Authors: Hamidou Diallo, Marianne Guille

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This paper identifies leading triggers of deficient episodes in terms of GDP growth based on a sample of countries at different stages of development over 1994-2017. Using logit models, we build early warning systems (EWS), and our results show important differences between developing countries (DCs) and advanced economies (AEs). For AEs, the main predictors of the probability of entering in a GDP growth deficient episode are the deterioration of external imbalances and the vulnerability of fiscal position while DCs face different challenges that need to be considered. The key indicators for them are first, the low ability to pay their debts, and second, their belonging or not to a common currency area. We also build homogeneous pools of countries inside AEs and DCs. The evolution of the proportion of AE countries in the riskiest pool is marked first, by three distinct peaks just after the high-tech bubble burst, the global financial crisis, and the European sovereign debt crisis, and second by a very low minimum level in 2006 and 2007. In contrast, the situation of DCs is characterized first by the relative stability of this proportion and then by an upward trend from 2006, that can be explained by a more unfavorable socio-political environment leading to shortcomings in the fiscal consolidation.

Keywords: currency area, early warning system, external imbalances, fiscal vulnerability, GDP growth, public debt

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Authors: Shi-Yu Xu

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The top three risk factors that have contributed to building collapses during past earthquake events in Taiwan are: "irregular floor plans or elevations," "insufficient columns in single-bay buildings," and the "weak-story problem." Fortunately, these unsound structural characteristics can be directly identified from the floor plans. However, due to the vast number of old buildings, conducting manual inspections to identify these compromised structural features in all existing structures would be time-consuming and prone to human errors. This study aims to develop an algorithm that utilizes artificial intelligence techniques to automatically pinpoint the structural components within a building's floor plans. The obtained spatial information will be utilized to construct a digital structural model of the building. This information, particularly regarding the distribution of columns in the floor plan, can then be used to conduct preliminary seismic assessments of the building. The study employs various image processing and pattern recognition techniques to enhance detection efficiency and accuracy. The study enables a large-scale evaluation of structural vulnerability for numerous old buildings, providing ample time to arrange for structural retrofitting in those buildings that are at risk of significant damage or collapse during earthquakes.

Keywords: structural vulnerability detection, object recognition, seismic capacity assessment, old buildings, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Annie Devault

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Mindfulness-based interventions (MBI) can be beneficial for the well-being of children. MBIs offered for children in contexts of vulnerability (poverty, neglect) report positive results in terms of emotion regulation and cognitive flexibility. Anxiety is a common issue for children living in a vulnerable context. It has a negative impact on children’s attention span, emotional regulation and self-esteem. The MBI (12 weeks) associated with this research has been developed for a total of 30 children suffering from anxiety (7 to 9 years old) and receiving services from a community center over the last seven years. The first objective is to describe in details the content of the mindfulness-based intervention. The second purpose is to document what helps and what hinders the practice of mindfulness for children living in a context of vulnerability. A special attention will be given to the importance of the way that the intervention is offered and the principles that are followed by the practitioners. Perceived effects of the intervention on children were collected through an individual semi-structured interview with each child at the end of the program. Parents were also interviewed to have their point of view on the effect of their children’s participation in the group. Anxiety was measure with the Beck youth pre-post and at follow up (2 months). Qualitative analysis of the interviews with children showed that most of them mentioned that the program helped them become calmer, more confident, less scared and more able to deal with difficult emotions. Almost all of them reported having used the material provided to them to practice at home. This result has been confirmed by parents. They reported that their child had gained confidence and were better at verbalizing emotions. Children also grew calmer, even though all anxiety was not gone. They would have liked more material to practice at home. The quantitative instrument used to measure anxiety did not corroborate the qualitative interviews about anxiety. Discussion will question the use of this questionnaire for children who have important cognitive limitations. Discussion will also report the importance of the personalized contact with children, along with other consideration, to enhance the adherence of children and parents. The MBI seems to have benefited children in different ways, which is corroborated by most parents. Since the sample was limited, we will need to continue documenting its effects with more children and parents. The major strength of this research is to have reported the subjective perspectives of children on their experience of mindfulness.

Keywords: anxiety, mindfulness, children, best practices

Procedia PDF Downloads 80