Search results for: seismic vulnerability index

Authors: Evangelos Tsakalos, Maria Kazantzaki, Eleni Filippaki, Yannis Bassiakos

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The coastal areas of the Mediterranean have been extensively affected by the transgressive event that followed the Last Glacial Maximum, with many studies conducted regarding the stratigraphic configuration of coastal sediments around the Mediterranean. The coastal zone of the Messologi area, western Greece, consists of low relief beaches containing low cliffs and eroded dunes, a fact which, in combination with the rising sea level and tectonic subsidence of the area, has led to substantial coastal. Coastal vulnerability assessment is a useful means of identifying areas of coastline that are vulnerable to impacts of climate change and coastal processes, highlighting potential problem areas. Commonly, coastal vulnerability assessment takes the form of an ‘index’ that quantifies the relative vulnerability along a coastline. Here we make use of the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) methodology by Thieler and Hammar-Klose, by considering geological features, coastal slope, relative sea-level change, shoreline erosion/accretion rates, and mean significant wave height as well as mean tide range to assess the present-day vulnerability of the coastal zone of Messologi area. In light of this, an impact assessment is performed under three different sea level rise scenarios, and adaptation measures to control climate change events are proposed. This study contributes toward coastal zone management practices in low-lying areas that have little data information, assisting decision-makers in adopting best adaptations options to overcome sea level rise impact on vulnerable areas similar to the coastal zone of Messologi.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, coastal erosion, sea level rise, GIS

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Authors: Maria Kazantzaki, Evangelos Tsakalos, Eleni Filippaki, Yannis Bassiakos

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Mediterranean areas are characterized by intense seismic and volcanic activity as well as eustatic changes, the result of which is the creation of particularly vulnerable coastal zones. The most vulnerable are low-lying coastal areas, the geomorphological evolution of which are highly affected by natural processes and anthropogenic interventions. Therefore, assessing changes that take place along coastal zones is of great importance in order to enable the development of integrated coastal management plans. A characteristic case is the gulf of Mirabello in N.E Crete, where intense coastal erosion, in combination with the tectonic subsidence of the area, threatens a large part of the coastal zone, resulting in direct socio-economic impacts. The present study assesses the temporal geomorphological changes that have taken place in the coastal zone of Mirabello gulf to provide a clear frame of the coastal zone evolution over time and performs a vulnerability assessment based on the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) methodology by Thieler and Hammar-Klose, considering geological features, coastal slope, relative sea-level change, shoreline erosion/accretion rates and mean significant wave height as well as mean tide range in the area. In light of this, an impact assessment, based on three different sea level rise scenarios, is also performed and presented.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, coastal erosion, GIS, sea level rise

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Authors: Ming Lu, Xiaojun Li, Bodi Lu, Juehui Xing

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Earthquake damage phenomenon of each large earthquake gives comprehensive and profound real test to the dynamic performance and failure mechanism of different engineering structures. Cognitive engineering structure characteristics through seismic damage phenomenon are often far superior to expensive shaking table experiments. After the earthquake, people will record a variety of different types of engineering damage photos. However, a large number of earthquake damage photographs lack sufficient information and reduce their using value. To improve the research value and the use efficiency of engineering seismic damage photographs, this paper objects to explore and show seismic damage background information, which includes the earthquake magnitude, earthquake intensity, and the damaged structure characteristics. From the research requirement in earthquake engineering field, the authors use the 2008 China Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake photographs, and provide four kinds of attribute indexes and classification, which are seismic information, structure types, earthquake damage parts and disaster causation factors. The final object is to set up an engineering structural seismic damage database based on these four attribute indicators and classification, and eventually build a website providing seismic damage photographs.

Keywords: attribute index, classification method, earthquake damage picture, engineering structure

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Authors: F. Tahiri, F. Grajçevci

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The cities are coping with permanent demands to extend their residential and economical capacity. The new urban zones are sometimes induced to be developed in more vulnerable environments. This study is aimed to identify and mitigate the seismic hazards in the stage of urban planning for new settlements, including the existing urban environments which initially have not considered the seismic hazard. Seismic microzoning shall study the amplification/attenuation of seismic excitations from the bedrock to the ground surface. Modification of the seismic excitation is governed from the site specific ground conditions, presented on ground surface as mean values of the ratio of maximum accelerations at the surface versus acceleration of subsoil media – presented with dynamic amplification factors (DAF). The values shall be used to create the maps with isolines of DAF and then seismic microzoning with expected maximum mean surface acceleration as a product of DAF with maximum accelerations at bedrock. Development of resonant map shall conglomerate the information’s obtained from seismic microzoning in regard to expected predominant ground periods of seismic excitation and periods of vibrations of designed/built structures. These information’s shall be used as indispensible tool in early stages of urban planning to determine the most optimal zones for construction, the constructive materials, structural systems, range of buildings height, etc. so the resonance of soil media with built structures is avoided. The information’s could be used also for assessment of seismic risk and vulnerability-damageability of existing urban environments.

Keywords: vulnerable environment, mitigation, seismic microzoning, resonant map, urban planning

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Authors: Pranab Kumar Das

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Vulnerability assessment of buildings with irregularity in the vertical direction has been carried out in this study. The constructions of vertically irregular buildings are increasing in the context of fast urbanization in the developing countries including India. During two reconnaissance based survey performed after Nepal earthquake 2015 and Imphal (India) earthquake 2016, it has been observed that so many structures are damaged due to the vertically irregular configuration. These irregular buildings are necessary to perform safely during seismic excitation. Therefore, it is very urgent demand to point out the actual vulnerability of the irregular structure. So that remedial measures can be taken for protecting those structures during natural hazard as like earthquake. This assessment will be very helpful for India and as well as for the other developing countries. A sufficient number of research has been contributed to the vulnerability of plan asymmetric buildings. In the field of vertically irregular buildings, the effort has not been forwarded much to find out their vulnerability during an earthquake. Irregularity in vertical direction may be caused due to irregular distribution of mass, stiffness and geometrically irregular configuration. Detailed analysis of such structures, particularly non-linear/ push over analysis for performance based design seems to be challenging one. The present paper considered a number of models of irregular structures. Building models made of both reinforced concrete and brick masonry are considered for the sake of generality. The analyses are performed with both help of finite element method and computational method.The study, as a whole, may help to arrive at a reasonably good estimate, insight for fundamental and other natural periods of such vertically irregular structures. The ductility demand, storey drift, and seismic response study help to identify the location of critical stress concentration. Summarily, this paper is a humble step for understanding the vulnerability and framing up the guidelines for vertically irregular structures.

Keywords: ductility, stress concentration, vertically irregular structure, vulnerability

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Authors: Beatriz González-rodrigo, Diego Hidalgo-leiva, Omar Flores, Claudia Germoso, Maribel Jiménez-martínez, Laura Navas-sánchez, Belén Orta, Nicola Tarque, Orlando Hernández- Rubio, Miguel Marchamalo, Juan Gregorio Rejas, Belén Benito-oterino

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Cities facing seismic hazard necessitate detailed risk assessments for effective urban planning and vulnerability identification, ensuring the safety and sustainability of urban infrastructure. Comprehensive studies involving seismic hazard, vulnerability, and exposure evaluations are pivotal for estimating potential losses and guiding proactive measures against seismic events. However, broad-scale traditional risk studies limit consideration of specific local threats and identify vulnerable housing within a structural typology. Achieving precise results at neighbourhood levels demands higher resolution seismic hazard exposure, and vulnerability studies. This research aims to bolster sustainability and safety against seismic disasters in three Central American and Caribbean capitals. It integrates geospatial techniques and artificial intelligence into seismic risk studies, proposing cost-effective methods for exposure data collection and damage prediction. The methodology relies on prior seismic threat studies in pilot zones, utilizing existing exposure and vulnerability data in the region. Emphasizing detailed building attributes enables the consideration of behaviour modifiers affecting seismic response. The approach aims to generate detailed risk scenarios, facilitating prioritization of preventive actions pre-, during, and post-seismic events, enhancing decision-making certainty. Detailed risk scenarios necessitate substantial investment in fieldwork, training, research, and methodology development. Regional cooperation becomes crucial given similar seismic threats, urban planning, and construction systems among involved countries. The outcomes hold significance for emergency planning and national and regional construction regulations. The success of this methodology depends on cooperation, investment, and innovative approaches, offering insights and lessons applicable to regions facing moderate seismic threats with vulnerable constructions. Thus, this framework aims to fortify resilience in seismic-prone areas and serves as a reference for global urban planning and disaster management strategies. In conclusion, this research proposes a comprehensive framework for seismic risk assessment in high-risk urban areas, emphasizing detailed studies at finer resolutions for precise vulnerability evaluations. The approach integrates regional cooperation, geospatial technologies, and adaptive fragility curve adjustments to enhance risk assessment accuracy, guiding effective mitigation strategies and emergency management plans.

Keywords: assessment, behaviour modifiers, emergency management, mitigation strategies, resilience, vulnerability

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Authors: Joshua Harrell, Gideon Osei Bonsu, Susan Garza, Clarence Conner, Da’Neisha Harris, Emma Bukoswki, Zohreh Safari

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The Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) stands as a pivotal tool for gauging community resilience amidst diverse stressors, including pandemics like COVID-19. This paper synthesizes recent research and underscores the significance of SVI in elucidating the differential impacts of crises on communities. Drawing on studies by Fox et al. (2023) and Mah et al. (2023), we delve into the application of SVI alongside emerging data sources to uncover nuanced insights into community vulnerability. Specifically, we explore the utilization of SVI in conjunction with mobility data from platforms like SafeGraph to probe the intricate relationship between social vulnerability and mobility dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic. By leveraging 16 community variables derived from the American Community Survey, including socioeconomic status and demographic characteristics, SVI offers actionable intelligence for guiding targeted interventions and resource allocation. Building upon recent advancements, this paper contributes to the discourse on harnessing AI techniques to mitigate health disparities and fortify public health resilience in the face of pandemics and other crises.

Keywords: social vulnerability index, mobility dynamics, data analytics, health equity, pandemic preparedness, targeted interventions, data integration

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Authors: Suresh Kumar Bandooni, Mirana Laishram

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The Mid Himalaya of Garhwal Himalaya in Uttarakhand (India) has a complex Physiographic features withdiversified climatic conditions and therefore it is suspect to environmental vulnerability. Thenatural disasters and also anthropogenic activities accelerate the rate of environmental vulnerability. To analyse the environmental vulnerability, we have used geoinformatics technologies and numerical models and it is adoptedby using Spatial Principal Component Analysis (SPCA). The model consist of many factors such as slope, landuse/landcover, soil, forest fire risk, landslide susceptibility zone, human population density and vegetation index. From this model, the environmental vulnerability integrated index (EVSI) is calculated for Pasol Gad Watershed of Garhwal Himalaya for the years 1987, 2000, and 2013 and the Vulnerability is classified into five levelsi.e. Very low, low, medium, high and very highby means of cluster principle. The resultsforeco-environmental vulnerability distribution in study area shows that medium, high and very high levels are dominating in the area and it is mainly caused by the anthropogenic activities and natural disasters. Therefore, proper management forconservation of resources is utmost necessity of present century. It is strongly believed that participation at community level along with social worker, institutions and Non-governmental organization (NGOs) have become a must to conserve and protect the environment.

Keywords: eco-environment vulnerability, spatial principal component analysis, remote sensing, geographic information system, institutions, Himalaya

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Authors: Shahrzad Mohammadi, Ghasem Boshrouei Sharq

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All seismic design codes are based on the determination of the design earthquake without taking into account the effects of aftershocks in the design practice. In regions with a high level of seismicity, the occurrence of several aftershocks of various magnitudes and different time lags is very likely. This research aims to estimate the collapse capacity of a 10-story steel bundled tube moment frame subjected to as-recorded seismic sequences. The studied structure is designed according to the seismic regulations of the fourth revision of the Iranian code of practice for the seismic-resistant design of buildings (Code No.2800). A series of incremental dynamic analyses (IDA) is performed up to the collapse level of the intact structure. Then, in order to demonstrate the effects of aftershock events on the collapse vulnerability of the building, aftershock IDA analyzes are carried out. To gain deeper insight, collapse fragility curves are developed and compared for both series. Also, a study on the influence of various ground motion characteristics on collapse capacity is carried out. The results highlight the importance of considering the decisive effects of aftershocks in seismic codes due to their contribution to the occurrence of collapse.

Keywords: IDA, aftershock, bundled tube frame, fragility assessment, GM characteristics, as-recorded seismic sequences

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Authors: Gianni Blasi, Daniele Perrone, Maria Antonietta Aiello

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The seismic vulnerability of non-structural components is nowadays recognized to be a key issue in performance-based earthquake engineering. Recent loss estimation studies, as well as the damage observed during past earthquakes, evidenced how non-structural damage represents the highest rate of economic loss in a building and can be in many cases crucial in a life-safety view during the post-earthquake emergency. The procedures developed to evaluate the seismic demand on non-structural components have been constantly improved and recent studies demonstrated how the existing formulations provided by main Standards generally ignore features which have a sensible influence on the definition of the seismic acceleration/displacements subjecting non-structural components. Since the influence of the infills on the dynamic behaviour of RC structures has already been evidenced by many authors, it is worth to be noted that the evaluation of the seismic demand on non-structural components should consider the presence of the infills as well as their mechanical properties. This study focuses on the evaluation of time-history floor acceleration in RC buildings; which is a useful mean to perform seismic vulnerability analyses of non-structural components through the well-known cascade method. Dynamic analyses are performed on an 8-storey RC frame, taking into account the presence of the infills; the influence of the elastic modulus of the panel on the results is investigated as well as the presence of openings. Floor accelerations obtained from the analyses are used to evaluate the floor response spectra, in order to define the demand on non-structural components depending on the properties of the infills. Finally, the results are compared with formulations provided by main International Standards, in order to assess the accuracy and eventually define the improvements required according to the results of the present research work.

Keywords: floor spectra, infilled RC frames, non-structural components, seismic demand

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Authors: Jose Ruiz, Jose Velasquez, Holger Lovon

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Peruvian university buildings are critical structures for which very little research about its seismic vulnerability is available. This paper develops a probabilistic methodology that predicts seismic loss for university buildings with simulated fragility functions. Two university buildings located in the city of Cusco were analyzed. Fragility functions were developed considering seismic and structural parameters uncertainty. The fragility functions were generated with the Latin Hypercube technique, an improved Montecarlo-based method, which optimizes the sampling of structural parameters and provides at least 100 reliable samples for every level of seismic demand. Concrete compressive strength, maximum concrete strain and yield stress of the reinforcing steel were considered as the key structural parameters. The seismic demand is defined by synthetic records which are compatible with the elastic Peruvian design spectrum. Acceleration records are scaled based on the peak ground acceleration on rigid soil (PGA) which goes from 0.05g to 1.00g. A total of 2000 structural models were considered to account for both structural and seismic variability. These functions represent the overall building behavior because they give rational information regarding damage ratios for defined levels of seismic demand. The university buildings show an expected Mean Damage Factor of 8.80% and 19.05%, respectively, for the 0.22g-PGA scenario, which was amplified by the soil type coefficient and resulted in 0.26g-PGA. These ratios were computed considering a seismic demand related to 10% of probability of exceedance in 50 years which is a requirement in the Peruvian seismic code. These results show an acceptable seismic performance for both buildings.

Keywords: fragility functions, university buildings, loss assessment, Montecarlo simulation, latin hypercube

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Authors: Laura Micheli, Majd Hijazi, Mahmoud Faytarouni

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The damage reported by oil and gas industrial facilities revealed the utmost vulnerability of steel liquid storage tanks to seismic events. The failure of steel storage tanks may yield devastating and long-lasting consequences on built and natural environments, including the release of hazardous substances, uncontrolled fires, and soil contamination with hazardous materials. It is, therefore, fundamental to reliably predict the damage that steel liquid storage tanks will likely experience under future seismic hazard events. The seismic performance of steel liquid storage tanks is usually assessed using vulnerability curves obtained from the numerical simulation of a tank under different hazard scenarios. However, the computational demand of high-fidelity numerical simulation models, such as finite element models, makes the vulnerability assessment of liquid storage tanks time-consuming and often impractical. As a solution, this paper presents a surrogate model-based strategy for predicting seismic-induced damage in steel liquid storage tanks. In the proposed strategy, the surrogate model is leveraged to reduce the computational demand of time-consuming numerical simulations. To create the data set for training the surrogate model, field damage data from past earthquakes reconnaissance surveys and reports are collected. Features representative of steel liquid storage tank characteristics (e.g., diameter, height, liquid level, yielding stress) and seismic excitation parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, magnitude) are extracted from the field damage data. The collected data are then utilized to train a surrogate model that maps the relationship between tank characteristics, seismic hazard parameters, and seismic-induced damage via a data-driven surrogate model. Different types of surrogate algorithms, including naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, and random forest, are investigated, and results in terms of accuracy are reported. The model that yields the most accurate predictions is employed to predict future damage as a function of tank characteristics and seismic hazard intensity level. Results show that the proposed approach can be used to estimate the extent of damage in steel liquid storage tanks, where the use of data-driven surrogates represents a viable alternative to computationally expensive numerical simulation models.

Keywords: damage prediction , data-driven model, seismic performance, steel liquid storage tanks, surrogate model

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Authors: Anjli Pathak, Harshit Sosan Lakra, Smriti Mishra

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The increasing urbanization affects the external environment in which people exist and imposes livelihood vulnerability to shocks and stresses. Although research on the linkages between urbanization and vulnerability has been increasing, only a few studies have examined the caste/ethnicity in livelihood vulnerability. In this study, we explore how physical capital influences vulnerability among indigenous people in the context of livelihood. The study identifies the dimensions and indicators of physical capital that influence the profile of household vulnerability in the livelihood-building process. The result identified five dimensions and 19 indicators of livelihood vulnerability. The study also visualizes the inter-relationship between physical capital and other livelihood capital in formulating the livelihood vulnerability framework.

Keywords: urbanization, livelihood vulnerability, indigenous people, physical capital

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Authors: Kernou Nassim

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The current study presents a vulnerability and a reliability-mechanical approach that focuses on evaluating the seismic performance of reinforced concrete structures to determine the probability of failure. In this case, the performance function reflecting the non-linear behavior of the structure is modeled by a response surface to establish an analytical relationship between the random variables (strength of concrete and yield strength of steel) and mechanical responses of the structure (inter-floor displacement) obtained by the pushover results of finite element simulations. The push over-analysis is executed by software SAP2000. The results acquired prove that properly designed frames will perform well under seismic loads. It is a comparative study of the behavior of the existing structure before and after reinforcement using the pushover method. The coupling indirect mechanical reliability by response surface avoids prohibitive calculation times. Finally, the results of the proposed approach are compared with Monte Carlo Simulation. The comparative study shows that the structure is more reliable after the introduction of new shear walls.

Keywords: finite element method, surface response, reliability, reliability mechanical coupling, vulnerability

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Authors: Tewelde Gebresslase Haile, S. P. Singh

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To bridge the existing knowledge gap on public intervention implementations, this study estimates the impact of social protection intervention (SPI) on alleviating social vulnerability. Following a multi-stage sampling, primary information was gathered through a self-administered questionnaire, FGD, and interviews from the target households located at four systematically selected districts of Tigrai, Ethiopia. Factor analysis and Propensity Score Matching are applied to construct Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and measuring the counterfactual impact of selected intervention. As a multidimensional challenge, social vulnerability is found as an important concept used to guide policy evaluation. Accessibility of basic services of Social Affairs, Agriculture, Health and Education sectors, and Food Security Program are commonly used as SPIs. Finally, this study discovers that the households who had access to SPI have scored 9.65% lower SVI than in the absence of the intervention. Finally, this study suggests the provision of integrated, proactive, productive, and evidence-based SPIs to alleviate social vulnerability.

Keywords: social protection, livelihood assets, social vulnerability, public policy SVI

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Authors: Charuvan Kasemsap

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This research was studied in Bangnampriao District, Chachernsao Province, Thailand. The primary data relating to flooding, drought, and saline intrusion problem on agriculture were collected by surveying, focus group, and in-depth interview with agricultural officers, technical officers of irrigation department, and local government leader of Bangnampriao District. The likelihood and consequence of risk were determined the risk index by risk assessment matrix. In addition, the risk index and the total coping capacity scores were investigated the vulnerability index by vulnerability matrix. It was found that the high-risk drought and saline intrusion was dramatically along Bang Pakong River owing to the end destination of Chao Phraya Irrigation system of Central Thailand. This leads yearly the damage of rice paddy, mango tree, orchard, and fish pond. Therefore, some agriculture avoids rice growing during January to May, and also pumps fresh water from a canal into individual storage pond. However, Bangnampriao District will be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change. Monthly precipitations are expected to decrease in number; dry seasons are expected to be more in number and longer in duration. Thus, the risk and vulnerability of agriculture are also increasing. Adaptation strategies need to be put in place in order to enhance the resilience of the agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, bangnampriao, climate change, risk assessment

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Authors: Nastaran Moosavi, Mohammad Mokhtari

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Seismic inversion is a technique which has been in use for years and its main goal is to estimate and to model physical characteristics of rocks and fluids. Generally, it is a combination of seismic and well-log data. Seismic inversion can be carried out through different methods; we have conducted and compared post-stack and pre- stack seismic inversion methods on real data in one of the fields in the Persian Gulf. Pre-stack seismic inversion can transform seismic data to rock physics such as P-impedance, S-impedance and density. While post- stack seismic inversion can just estimate P-impedance. Then these parameters can be used in reservoir identification. Based on the results of inverting seismic data, a gas reservoir was detected in one of Hydrocarbon oil fields in south of Iran (Persian Gulf). By comparing post stack and pre-stack seismic inversion it can be concluded that the pre-stack seismic inversion provides a more reliable and detailed information for identification and prediction of hydrocarbon reservoirs.

Keywords: density, p-impedance, s-impedance, post-stack seismic inversion, pre-stack seismic inversion

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Authors: K. Shimola, M. Krishnaveni

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This paper examines vulnerability assessment of water resources in a semi-arid basin using the 4-step approach. The vulnerability assessment framework is developed to study the water resources vulnerability which includes the creation of GIS-based vulnerability maps. These maps represent the spatial variability of the vulnerability index. This paper introduces the 4-step approach to assess vulnerability that incorporates a new set of indicators. The approach is demonstrated using a framework composed of a precipitation data for (1975–2010) period, temperature data for (1965–2010) period, hydrological model outputs and the water resources GIS data base. The vulnerability assessment is a function of three components such as exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The current water resources vulnerability is assessed using GIS based spatio-temporal information. Rainfall Coefficient of Variation, monsoon onset and end date, rainy days, seasonality indices, temperature are selected for the criterion ‘exposure’. Water yield, ground water recharge, evapotranspiration (ET) are selected for the criterion ‘sensitivity’. Type of irrigation and storage structures are selected for the criterion ‘Adaptive capacity’. These indicators were mapped and integrated in GIS environment using overlay analysis. The five sub-basins, namely Arjunanadhi, Kousiganadhi, Sindapalli-Uppodai and Vallampatti Odai, fall under medium vulnerability profile, which indicates that the basin is under moderate stress of water resources. The paper also explores prioritization of sub-basinwise adaptation strategies to climate change based on the vulnerability indices.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, exposure, overlay analysis, sensitivity, vulnerability

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Authors: Zerihun Yohannes Amare Id, Bernhard Freyer, Ky Serge Stephane, Ouéda Adama, Blessing Mudombi, Jean Nzuma, Mekonen Getachew Abebe, Adane Tesfaye, Birtukan Atinkut Asmare, Tesfahun Asmamaw Kassie

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The study was conducted in Ethiopia (Zege Catchment) (ZC), Zimbabwe (Upper Save Catchment) (USC), and Burkina Faso (Nakambe Catchment) (NC). The study utilized a quantitative approach with 180 participants and complemented it with qualitative methods, including 33 key informant interviews and 6 focus group discussions. Households in ZC (58%), NC (55%), and US (40%) do not cover their household food consumption from crop production. The households rely heavily on perennial cash crops rather than annual crop production. Exposure indicators in ZC (0.758), USC (0.774), and NC (0.944), and sensitivity indicators in ZC (0.849) and NC (0.937) show statistically significant and high correlation with vulnerability. In the USC, adaptive capacity (0.746) and exposure (0.774) are also statistically significant and highly correlated with vulnerability. Vulnerability levels of the NC are very high (0.75) (0.85 female and 0.65 male participants) compared to the USC (0.66) (0.69 female and 0.61 male participants) and ZC (0.47) (0.34 female and 0.58 male participants). Female-headed households had statistically significantly lower vulnerability index compared to males in ZC, while male-headed households had statistically significantly lower vulnerability index compared to females in USC and NC. The reason is land certification in ZC (80%) is higher than in the US (10%) and NC (8%). Agroforestry practices variables across the study catchments had statistically significant contributions to households' adaptive capacity. We conclude that agroforestry practices do have substantial benefits in increasing women's adaptive capacity and reducing their vulnerability to climate change and food insecurity.

Keywords: climate change vulnerability, agroforestry, gender, food security, Sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Saman Javadi, Mehdi Hashemy, Mohahammad Mahmoodi

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Vulnerability maps are employed as an important solution in order to handle entrance of pollution into the aquifers. The common way to provide vulnerability map is DRASTIC. Meanwhile, application of the method is not easy to apply for any aquifer due to choosing appropriate constant values of weights and ranks. In this study, a new approach using k-means clustering is applied to make vulnerability maps. Four features of depth to groundwater, hydraulic conductivity, recharge value and vadose zone were considered at the same time as features of clustering. Five regions are recognized out of the case study represent zones with different level of vulnerability. The finding results show that clustering provides a realistic vulnerability map so that, Pearson’s correlation coefficients between nitrate concentrations and clustering vulnerability is obtained 61%.

Keywords: clustering, data mining, groundwater, vulnerability assessment

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Authors: Ahmet Parlak, Celalettin Bilgen

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In order to create an effective early warning system, Identification of the risks, preparation and carrying out risk modeling of risk scenarios, taking into account the shortcomings of the old disaster scenarios should be used to improve the system. In the light of this, the importance of risk modeling in creating an effective early warning system is understood. In the scope of TAFRISK project risk modeling trend analysis report on risk modeling developed and a demonstration was conducted for Risk Modeling for flood and mass movements. For risk modeling R&D, studies have been conducted to determine the information, and source of the information, to be gathered, to develop algorithms and to adapt the current algorithms to Turkey’s conditions for determining the risk score in the high disaster risk areas. For each type of the disaster; Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), Local Disaster Index (LDI), Prevalent Vulnerability Index (PVI), Risk Management Index (RMI) have been developed as disaster indices taking danger, sensitivity, fragility, and vulnerability, the physical and economic damage into account in the appropriate scale of the respective type.

Keywords: disaster, hazard, risk modeling, sensor

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Authors: Neha Gupta

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Landslide vulnerability is considered as the crucial parameter for the assessment of landslide risk. The term vulnerability defined as the damage or degree of elements at risk of different dimensions, i.e., physical, social, economic, and environmental dimensions. Himalaya region is very prone to multi-hazard such as floods, forest fires, earthquakes, and landslides. With the increases in fatalities rates, loss of infrastructure, and economy due to landslide in the Himalaya region, leads to the assessment of vulnerability. In this study, a methodology to measure the combination of vulnerability dimension, i.e., social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability in one framework. A combined result of these vulnerabilities has rarely been carried out. But no such approach was applied in the Indian Scenario. The methodology was applied in an area of east Sikkim Himalaya, India. The physical vulnerability comprises of building footprint layer extracted from remote sensing data and Google Earth imaginary. The social vulnerability was assessed by using population density based on land use. The land use map was derived from a high-resolution satellite image, and for environment vulnerability assessment NDVI, forest, agriculture land, distance from the river were assessed from remote sensing and DEM. The classes of social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environment vulnerability were normalized at the scale of 0 (no loss) to 1 (loss) to get the homogenous dataset. Then the Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) was used to assign individual weights to each dimension and then integrate it into one frame. The final vulnerability was further classified into four classes from very low to very high.

Keywords: landslide, multi-criteria analysis, MCA, physical vulnerability, social vulnerability

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Authors: Bishnupriya Sahoo, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Tropical cyclone is one among the worst natural hazards that results in a trail of destruction causing enormous damage to life, property, and coastal infrastructures. In a global perspective, the Indian Ocean is considered as one of the cyclone prone basins in the world. Specifically, the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal is higher compared to the Arabian Sea. Out of the four maritime states in the East coast of India, Odisha is highly susceptible to tropical cyclone landfall. Historical records clearly decipher the fact that the frequency of cyclones have reduced in this basin. However, in the recent decades, the intensity and size of tropical cyclones have increased. This is a matter of concern as the risk and vulnerability level of Odisha coast exposed to high wind speed and gusts during cyclone landfall have increased. In this context, there is a need to assess and evaluate the severity of coastal risk, area of exposure under risk, and associated vulnerability with a higher dimension in a multi-risk perspective. Changing climate can result in the emergence of a new hazard and vulnerability over a region with differential spatial and socio-economic impact. Hence there is a need to have coastal vulnerability projections in a changing climate scenario. With this motivation, the present study attempts to estimate the destructiveness of tropical cyclones based on Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for those cyclones that made landfall along Odisha coast that exhibits an increasing trend based on historical data. The study also covers the futuristic scenarios of integral coastal vulnerability based on the trends in PDI for the Odisha coast. This study considers 11 essential and important parameters; the cyclone intensity, storm surge, onshore inundation, mean tidal range, continental shelf slope, topo-graphic elevation onshore, rate of shoreline change, maximum wave height, relative sea level rise, rainfall distribution, and coastal geomorphology. The study signifies that over a decadal scale, the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) depends largely on the incremental change in variables such as cyclone intensity, storm surge, and associated inundation. In addition, the study also performs a critical analysis on the modulation of PDI on storm surge and inundation characteristics for the entire coastal belt of Odisha State. Interestingly, the study brings to light that a linear correlation exists between the storm-tide with PDI. The trend analysis of PDI and its projection for coastal Odisha have direct practical applications in effective coastal zone management and vulnerability assessment.

Keywords: Bay of Bengal, coastal vulnerability index, power dissipation index, tropical cyclone

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Authors: Paolo Castaldo, Bruno Palazzo, Laura Lodato

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This study deals with the seizure effects of friction pendulum (FP) bearings on the seismic reliability of a 3D base-isolated nonlinear structural system, designed according to Italian seismic code (NTC08). The isolated system consists in a 3D reinforced concrete superstructure, a r.c. substructure and the FP devices, described by employing a velocity dependent model. The seismic input uncertainty is considered as a random variable relevant to the problem, by employing a set of natural seismic records selected in compliance with L’Aquila (Italy) seismic hazard as provided from NTC08. Several non-linear dynamic analyses considering the three components of each ground motion have been performed with the aim to evaluate the seismic reliability of the superstructure, substructure, and isolation level, also taking into account the seizure event of the isolation devices. Finally, a design solution aimed at increasing the seismic robustness of the base-isolated systems with FPS is analyzed.

Keywords: FP devices, seismic reliability, seismic robustness, seizure

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Authors: Kahil Amar, Boukais Said, Kezmane Ali, Hannachi Naceur Eddine, Hamizi Mohand

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The principle of the seismic performance evaluation methods is to provide a measure of capability for a building or set of buildings to be damaged by an earthquake. The common objective of many of these methods is to supply classification criteria. The purpose of this study is to present a method for assessing the seismic performance of structures, based on Pushover method, we are particularly interested in reinforced concrete frame structures, which represent a significant percentage of damaged structures after a seismic event. The work is based on the characterization of seismic movement of the various earthquake zones in terms of PGA and PGD that is obtained by means of SIMQK_GR and PRISM software and the correlation between the points of performance and the scalar characterizing the earthquakes will be developed.

Keywords: seismic performance, pushover method, characterization of seismic motion, harmfulness of the seismic

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Authors: Muhammad Tariq A. Chaudhary

Abstract:

The tremendous loss of life that resulted in the aftermath of recent earthquakes in developing countries is mostly due to the collapse of non-engineered and semi-engineered building structures. Such structures are used as houses, schools, primary healthcare centres and government offices. These building are classified structurally into two categories viz. non-engineered and semi-engineered. Non-engineered structures include: adobe, Unreinforced Masonry (URM) and wood buildings. Semi-engineered buildings are mostly low-rise (up to 3 story) light concrete frame structures or masonry bearing walls with reinforced concrete slab. This paper presents an overview of the typical damage observed in non-engineered structures and their most likely causes in the past earthquakes with specific emphasis on the performance of such structures in the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. It is demonstrated that seismic performance of these structures can be improved from life-safety viewpoint by adopting simple low-cost modifications to the existing construction practices. Incorporation of some of these practices in the reconstruction efforts after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake are examined in the last section for mitigating seismic risk hazard.

Keywords: Kashmir earthquake, non-engineered buildings, seismic hazard, structural details, structural strengthening

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Authors: Adam Gorine, Faten Spondon

Abstract:

Python is considered the most popular programming language and offers its own ecosystem for archiving and maintaining open-source software packages. This system is called the python package index (PyPI), the repository of this programming language. Unfortunately, one-third of these software packages have vulnerabilities that allow attackers to execute code automatically when a vulnerable or malicious package is installed. This paper contributes to large-scale empirical studies investigating security issues in the python ecosystem by evaluating package vulnerabilities. These provide a series of implications that can help the security of software ecosystems by improving the process of discovering, fixing, and managing package vulnerabilities. The vulnerable dataset is generated using the NVD, the national vulnerability database, and the Snyk vulnerability dataset. In addition, we evaluated 807 vulnerability reports in the NVD and 3900 publicly known security vulnerabilities in Python Package Manager (pip) from the Snyk database from 2002 to 2022. As a result, many Python vulnerabilities appear in high severity, followed by medium severity. The most problematic areas have been improper input validation and denial of service attacks. A hybrid scanning tool that combines the three scanners bandit, snyk and dlint, which provide a clear report of the code vulnerability, is also described.

Keywords: Python vulnerabilities, bandit, Snyk, Dlint, Python package index, ecosystem, static analysis, malicious attacks

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Authors: Abdullah M. Algarni, Yashwant K. Malaiya

Abstract:

Some of the key aspects of vulnerability-discovery, dissemination, and disclosure-have received some attention recently. However, the role of interaction among the vulnerability discoverers and vulnerability acquirers has not yet been adequately addressed. Our study suggests that a major percentage of discoverers, a majority in some cases, are unaffiliated with the software developers and thus are free to disseminate the vulnerabilities they discover in any way they like. As a result, multiple vulnerability markets have emerged. In some of these markets, the exchange is regulated, but in others, there is little or no regulation. In recent vulnerability discovery literature, the vulnerability discoverers have remained anonymous individuals. Although there has been an attempt to model the level of their efforts, information regarding their identities, modes of operation, and what they are doing with the discovered vulnerabilities has not been explored. Reports of buying and selling of the vulnerabilities are now appearing in the press; however, the existence of such markets requires validation, and the natures of the markets need to be analysed. To address this need, we have attempted to collect detailed information. We have identified the most prolific vulnerability discoverers throughout the past decade and examined their motivation and methods. A large percentage of these discoverers are located in Eastern and Western Europe and in the Far East. We have contacted several of them in order to collect first-hand information regarding their techniques, motivations, and involvement in the vulnerability markets. We examine why many of the discoverers appear to retire after a highly successful vulnerability-finding career. The paper identifies the actual vulnerability markets, rather than the hypothetical ideal markets that are often examined. The emergence of worldwide government agencies as vulnerability buyers has significant implications. We discuss potential factors that can impact the risk to society and the need for detailed exploration.

Keywords: risk management, software security, vulnerability discoverers, vulnerability markets

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Authors: Mogens Saberi

Abstract:

The following article focuses on a new seismic design approach for Denmark. Denmark is located in a low seismic zone and up till now a general and very simplified approach has been used to accommodate the effect of seismic loading. The current used method is presented and it is found that the approach is on the unsafe side for many building types in Denmark. The damages during time due to earth quake is presented and a seismic map for Denmark is developed and presented. Furthermore, a new design approach is suggested and compared to the existing one. The new approach is relatively simple but captures the effect of seismic loading more realistic than the existing one. The new approach is believed to the incorporated in the Danish Deign Code for building structures.

Keywords: low seismicity, new design approach, earthquakes, Denmark

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Authors: Ho Young Son, Bu Seog Ju, Woo Young Jung

Abstract:

This study presents the seismic safety evaluation of weir structure subjected to strong earthquake ground motions, as a flood defense structure in civil engineering structures. The seismic safety analysis procedure was illustrated through development of Finite Element (FE) and InFinite Element (IFE) method in ABAQUS platform. The IFE model was generated by CINPS4, 4-node linear one-way infinite model as a sold continuum infinite element in foundation areas of the weir structure and then nonlinear FE model using friction model for soil-structure interactions was applied in this study. In order to understand the complex behavior of weir structures, nonlinear time history analysis was carried out. Consequently, it was interesting to note that the compressive stress gave more vulnerability to the weir structure, in comparison to the tensile stress, during an earthquake. The stress concentration of the weir structure was shown at the connection area between the weir body and stilling basin area. The stress both tension and compression was reduced in IFE model rather than FE model of weir structures.

Keywords: seismic, numerical analysis, FEM, weir, boundary condition

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