Search results for: risk optimization
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8719

Search results for: risk optimization

8689 Cuckoo Search (CS) Optimization Algorithm for Solving Constrained Optimization

Authors: Sait Ali Uymaz, Gülay Tezel

Abstract:

This paper presents the comparison results on the performance of the Cuckoo Search (CS) algorithm for constrained optimization problems. For constraint handling, CS algorithm uses penalty method. CS algorithm is tested on thirteen well-known test problems and the results obtained are compared to Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. Mean, best, median and worst values were employed for the analyses of performance.

Keywords: cuckoo search, particle swarm optimization, constrained optimization problems, penalty method

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8688 Risk and Uncertainty in Aviation: A Thorough Analysis of System Vulnerabilities

Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

Abstract:

Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty

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8687 UEMSD Risk Identification: Case Study

Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

Abstract:

The article demonstrates on a case study how it is possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation risk identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upper-extremities musculoskeletal disorders.

Keywords: case study, upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics, risk identification

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8686 An Algorithm of Set-Based Particle Swarm Optimization with Status Memory for Traveling Salesman Problem

Authors: Takahiro Hino, Michiharu Maeda

Abstract:

Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is an optimization approach that achieves the social model of bird flocking and fish schooling. PSO works in continuous space and can solve continuous optimization problem with high quality. Set-based particle swarm optimization (SPSO) functions in discrete space by using a set. SPSO can solve combinatorial optimization problem with high quality and is successful to apply to the large-scale problem. In this paper, we present an algorithm of SPSO with status memory to decide the position based on the previous position for solving traveling salesman problem (TSP). In order to show the effectiveness of our approach. We examine SPSOSM for TSP compared to the existing algorithms.

Keywords: combinatorial optimization problems, particle swarm optimization, set-based particle swarm optimization, traveling salesman problem

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8685 Application of the Global Optimization Techniques to the Optical Thin Film Design

Authors: D. Li

Abstract:

Optical thin films are used in a wide variety of optical components and there are many software tools programmed for advancing multilayer thin film design. The available software packages for designing the thin film structure may not provide optimum designs. Normally, almost all current software programs obtain their final designs either from optimizing a starting guess or by technique, which may or may not involve a pseudorandom process, that give different answers every time, depending upon the initial conditions. With the increasing power of personal computers, functional methods in optimization and synthesis of optical multilayer systems have been developed such as DGL Optimization, Simulated Annealing, Genetic Algorithms, Needle Optimization, Inductive Optimization and Flip-Flop Optimization. Among these, DGL Optimization has proved its efficiency in optical thin film designs. The application of the DGL optimization technique to the design of optical coating is presented. A DGL optimization technique is provided, and its main features are discussed. Guidelines on the application of the DGL optimization technique to various types of design problems are given. The innovative global optimization strategies used in a software tool, OnlyFilm, to optimize multilayer thin film designs through different filter designs are outlined. OnlyFilm is a powerful, versatile, and user-friendly thin film software on the market, which combines optimization and synthesis design capabilities with powerful analytical tools for optical thin film designers. It is also the only thin film design software that offers a true global optimization function.

Keywords: optical coatings, optimization, design software, thin film design

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8684 Enterprise Risk Management: A Future Outlook

Authors: Ruchi Agarwal, Jake Ansell

Abstract:

Austerity impacts on all aspects of society. Companies into the future will have to be more capable of dealing with the risks they face. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has widely been accepted in recent years as an approach to manage risks within businesses. ERM attempts to tackle risk holistically with gains from opportunities in a managing risk and reduction in the risk of failure. The paper reviews merits and demerits of approaches to risk management in regard to antifragility. A qualitative study has investigated current practices and the problems with ERM implementation by interviewing over 25 chief risk officers and senior management. The findings indicate the gap in ERM description, understanding, and implementation. The paper suggests risk learning and expertise knowledge supports development of effective enterprise risk management by designing systems with inherent resilience.

Keywords: risk management, interviews, antifragility, failure

Procedia PDF Downloads 522
8683 Optimization of Interface Radio of Universal Mobile Telecommunication System Network

Authors: O. Mohamed Amine, A. Khireddine

Abstract:

Telecoms operators are always looking to meet their share of the other customers, they try to gain optimum utilization of the deployed equipment and network optimization has become essential. This project consists of optimizing UMTS network, and the study area is an urban area situated in the center of Algiers. It was initially questions to become familiar with the different communication systems (3G) and the optimization technique, its main components, and its fundamental characteristics radios were introduced.

Keywords: UMTS, UTRAN, WCDMA, optimization

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8682 Periodic Topology and Size Optimization Design of Tower Crane Boom

Authors: Wu Qinglong, Zhou Qicai, Xiong Xiaolei, Zhang Richeng

Abstract:

In order to achieve the layout and size optimization of the web members of tower crane boom, a truss topology and cross section size optimization method based on continuum is proposed considering three typical working conditions. Firstly, the optimization model is established by replacing web members with web plates. And the web plates are divided into several sub-domains so that periodic soft kill option (SKO) method can be carried out for topology optimization of the slender boom. After getting the optimized topology of web plates, the optimized layout of web members is formed through extracting the principal stress distribution. Finally, using the web member radius as design variable, the boom compliance as objective and the material volume of the boom as constraint, the cross section size optimization mathematical model is established. The size optimization criterion is deduced from the mathematical model by Lagrange multiplier method and Kuhn-Tucker condition. By comparing the original boom with the optimal boom, it is identified that this optimization method can effectively lighten the boom and improve its performance.

Keywords: tower crane boom, topology optimization, size optimization, periodic, SKO, optimization criterion

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8681 Topology Optimization of Composite Structures with Material Nonlinearity

Authors: Mengxiao Li, Johnson Zhang

Abstract:

Currently, topology optimization technique is widely used to define the layout design of structures that are presented as truss-like topologies. However, due to the difficulty in combining optimization technique with more realistic material models where their nonlinear properties should be considered, the achieved optimized topologies are commonly unable to apply straight towards the practical design problems. This study presented an optimization procedure of composite structures where different elastic stiffness, yield criteria, and hardening models are assumed for the candidate materials. From the results, it can be concluded that a more explicit modeling has the significant influence on the resulting topologies. Also, the isotropic or kinematic hardening is important for elastoplastic structural optimization design. The capability of the proposed optimization procedure is shown through several cases.

Keywords: topology optimization, material composition, nonlinear modeling, hardening rules

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8680 The Whale Optimization Algorithm and Its Implementation in MATLAB

Authors: S. Adhirai, R. P. Mahapatra, Paramjit Singh

Abstract:

Optimization is an important tool in making decisions and in analysing physical systems. In mathematical terms, an optimization problem is the problem of finding the best solution from among the set of all feasible solutions. The paper discusses the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), and its applications in different fields. The algorithm is tested using MATLAB because of its unique and powerful features. The benchmark functions used in WOA algorithm are grouped as: unimodal (F1-F7), multimodal (F8-F13), and fixed-dimension multimodal (F14-F23). Out of these benchmark functions, we show the experimental results for F7, F11, and F19 for different number of iterations. The search space and objective space for the selected function are drawn, and finally, the best solution as well as the best optimal value of the objective function found by WOA is presented. The algorithmic results demonstrate that the WOA performs better than the state-of-the-art meta-heuristic and conventional algorithms.

Keywords: optimization, optimal value, objective function, optimization problems, meta-heuristic optimization algorithms, Whale Optimization Algorithm, implementation, MATLAB

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8679 Mathematical Programming Models for Portfolio Optimization Problem: A Review

Authors: Mazura Mokhtar, Adibah Shuib, Daud Mohamad

Abstract:

Portfolio optimization problem has received a lot of attention from both researchers and practitioners over the last six decades. This paper provides an overview of the current state of research in portfolio optimization with the support of mathematical programming techniques. On top of that, this paper also surveys the solution algorithms for solving portfolio optimization models classifying them according to their nature in heuristic and exact methods. To serve these purposes, 40 related articles appearing in the international journal from 2003 to 2013 have been gathered and analyzed. Based on the literature review, it has been observed that stochastic programming and goal programming constitute the highest number of mathematical programming techniques employed to tackle the portfolio optimization problem. It is hoped that the paper can meet the needs of researchers and practitioners for easy references of portfolio optimization.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, mathematical programming, multi-objective programming, solution approaches

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8678 Discretization of Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm for Solving Quadratic Assignment Problems

Authors: Elham Kazemi

Abstract:

Quadratic Assignment Problem (QAP) is one the combinatorial optimization problems about which research has been done in many companies for allocating some facilities to some locations. The issue of particular importance in this process is the costs of this allocation and the attempt in this problem is to minimize this group of costs. Since the QAP’s are from NP-hard problem, they cannot be solved by exact solution methods. Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm is a Meta-heuristicmethod which has higher capability to find the global optimal points. It is an algorithm which is basically raised to search a continuous space. The Quadratic Assignment Problem is the issue which can be solved in the discrete space, thus the standard arithmetic operators of Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm need to be redefined on the discrete space in order to apply the Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm on the discrete searching space. This paper represents the way of discretizing the Cuckoo optimization algorithm for solving the quadratic assignment problem.

Keywords: Quadratic Assignment Problem (QAP), Discrete Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm (DCOA), meta-heuristic algorithms, optimization algorithms

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8677 A Guidance to Enhance the Risk Culture among the Organizations

Authors: Najeebah Almahmeed

Abstract:

Risk Management is an evolving subject among organizations that include corporations, governments, non-governmental organizations, and not-for-profit corporations. In order to enhance awareness around the importance of Risk Management and make sure everyone is using it in their day-to-day job, the Risk Culture topic has emerged and gained importance not only in the Finance Sector but also in the National Oil Companies in Kuwait. Risk Culture can be defined as the shared beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors within a company that guide its approach to managing risks. It acts as a connecting force that links policies, procedures, and individuals, influencing how risks are understood and tackled through activities. In this research, benefits of Risk Culture are shared, guidelines are presented to promote a risk aware culture, and fully embed and enforce Risk-based processes and procedures. Moreover, this research demonstrates methodologies of measuring the Risk Culture using specific dimensions and clusters.

Keywords: clusters, dimensions, national oil companies, risk culture, risk management

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8676 Consideration of Uncertainty in Engineering

Authors: A. Mohammadi, M. Moghimi, S. Mohammadi

Abstract:

Engineers need computational methods which could provide solutions less sensitive to the environmental effects, so the techniques should be used which take the uncertainty to account to control and minimize the risk associated with design and operation. In order to consider uncertainty in engineering problem, the optimization problem should be solved for a suitable range of the each uncertain input variable instead of just one estimated point. Using deterministic optimization problem, a large computational burden is required to consider every possible and probable combination of uncertain input variables. Several methods have been reported in the literature to deal with problems under uncertainty. In this paper, different methods presented and analyzed.

Keywords: uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulated, stochastic programming, scenario method

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8675 Risk Assessment for International Investment: A Standardized Approach to Identify Risk, Risk Appetite, Risk Rating, Risk Treatment and Mitigation Plans

Authors: Pui Yong Leo, Normy Maziah Mohd Said

Abstract:

Change of global economy landscape and business environment has led to companies’ decision to go global and enter international markets. As the companies go beyond the comfort zone (i.e. investing in the home country), it is important to ensure a comprehensive risk assessment is carried out. This paper describes a standardized approach for international investment, ensuring identification of risk, risk appetite, risk rating, risk treatment and mitigation plans for respective international investment proposal. The standardized approach is divided into three (3) stages as follows: Stage 1 – Preliminary Risk profiling; with the objective to gauge exposure to countries and high level risk factors as first level assessment. Stage 2 – Risk Parameters; with the objective to define risk appetite for the international investment from the perspective of likelihood and impact. Stage 3 – Detailed Risk Assessments; with the objectives to assess in detail any triggered elements from Stage 1, and project specific risks. The final output will include the mitigation plans for the identified risks for the total investment. Example will be given in this paper to show how comprehensive risk assessment is carried out for an international investment in power energy sector.

Keywords: international investment, mitigation plans, risk appetite, risk assessment

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8674 Analysis of Diabetes Patients Using Pearson, Cost Optimization, Control Chart Methods

Authors: Devatha Kalyan Kumar, R. Poovarasan

Abstract:

In this paper, we have taken certain important factors and health parameters of diabetes patients especially among children by birth (pediatric congenital) where using the above three metrics methods we are going to assess the importance of each attributes in the dataset and thereby determining the most highly responsible and co-related attribute causing diabetics among young patients. We use cost optimization, control chart and Spearmen methodologies for the real-time application of finding the data efficiency in this diabetes dataset. The Spearmen methodology is the correlation methodologies used in software development process to identify the complexity between the various modules of the software. Identifying the complexity is important because if the complexity is higher, then there is a higher chance of occurrence of the risk in the software. With the use of control; chart mean, variance and standard deviation of data are calculated. With the use of Cost optimization model, we find to optimize the variables. Hence we choose the Spearmen, control chart and cost optimization methods to assess the data efficiency in diabetes datasets.

Keywords: correlation, congenital diabetics, linear relationship, monotonic function, ranking samples, pediatric

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8673 Comparative Analysis of Two Different Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm for Solving Travelling Salesman Problem

Authors: Sourabh Joshi, Tarun Sharma, Anurag Sharma

Abstract:

Ant Colony Optimization is heuristic Algorithm which has been proven a successful technique applied on number of combinatorial optimization problems. Two variants of Ant Colony Optimization algorithm named Ant System and Max-Min Ant System are implemented in MATLAB to solve travelling Salesman Problem and the results are compared. In, this paper both systems are analyzed by solving the some Travelling Salesman Problem and depict which system solve the problem better in term of cost and time.

Keywords: Ant Colony Optimization, Travelling Salesman Problem, Ant System, Max-Min Ant System

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8672 Gas Lift Optimization to Improve Well Performance

Authors: Mohamed A. G. H. Abdalsadig, Amir Nourian, G. G. Nasr, Meisam Babaie

Abstract:

Gas lift optimization is becoming more important now a day in petroleum industry. A proper lift optimization can reduce the operating cost, increase the net present value (NPV) and maximize the recovery from the asset. A widely accepted definition of gas lift optimization is to obtain the maximum output under specified operating conditions. In addition, gas lift, a costly and indispensable means to recover oil from high depth reservoir entails solving the gas lift optimization problems. Gas lift optimization is a continuous process; there are two levels of production optimization. The total field optimization involves optimizing the surface facilities and the injection rate that can be achieved by standard tools softwares. Well level optimization can be achieved by optimizing the well parameters such as point of injection, injection rate, and injection pressure. All these aspects have been investigated and presented in this study by using experimental data and PROSPER simulation program. The results show that the well head pressure has a large influence on the gas lift performance and also proved that smart gas lift valve can be used to improve gas lift performance by controlling gas injection from down hole. Obtaining the optimum gas injection rate is important because excessive gas injection reduces production rate and consequently increases the operation cost.

Keywords: optimization, production rate, reservoir pressure effect, gas injection rate effect, gas injection pressure

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8671 Ant Lion Optimization in a Fuzzy System for Benchmark Control Problem

Authors: Leticia Cervantes, Edith Garcia, Oscar Castillo

Abstract:

At today, there are several control problems where the main objective is to obtain the best control in the study to decrease the error in the application. Many techniques can use to control these problems such as Neural Networks, PID control, Fuzzy Logic, Optimization techniques and many more. In this case, fuzzy logic with fuzzy system and an optimization technique are used to control the case of study. In this case, Ant Lion Optimization is used to optimize a fuzzy system to control the velocity of a simple treadmill. The main objective is to achieve the control of the velocity in the control problem using the ALO optimization. First, a simple fuzzy system was used to control the velocity of the treadmill it has two inputs (error and error change) and one output (desired speed), then results were obtained but to decrease the error the ALO optimization was developed to optimize the fuzzy system of the treadmill. Having the optimization, the simulation was performed, and results can prove that using the ALO optimization the control of the velocity was better than a conventional fuzzy system. This paper describes some basic concepts to help to understand the idea in this work, the methodology of the investigation (control problem, fuzzy system design, optimization), the results are presented and the optimization is used for the fuzzy system. A comparison between the simple fuzzy system and the optimized fuzzy systems are presented where it can be proving the optimization improved the control with good results the major findings of the study is that ALO optimization is a good alternative to improve the control because it helped to decrease the error in control applications even using any control technique to optimized, As a final statement is important to mentioned that the selected methodology was good because the control of the treadmill was improve using the optimization technique.

Keywords: ant lion optimization, control problem, fuzzy control, fuzzy system

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8670 Research on Measuring Operational Risk in Commercial Banks Based on Internal Control

Authors: Baobao Li

Abstract:

Operational risk covers all operations of commercial banks and has a close relationship with the bank’s internal control. But in the commercial banks' management practice, internal control is always separated from the operational risk measurement. With the increasing of operational risk events in recent years, operational risk is paid more and more attention by regulators and banks’ managements. The paper first discussed the relationship between internal control and operational risk management and used CVaR-POT model to measure operational risk, and then put forward a modified measurement method (to use operational risk assessment results to modify the measurement results of the CVaR-POT model). The paper also analyzed the necessity and rationality of this method. The method takes into consideration the influence of internal control, improves the accuracy and effectiveness of operational risk measurement and save the economic capital for commercial banks, avoiding the drawbacks of using some mainstream models one-sidedly.

Keywords: commercial banks, internal control, operational risk, risk measurement

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8669 Isogeometric Topology Optimization in Cracked Structures Design

Authors: Dongkyu Lee, Thanh Banh Thien, Soomi Shin

Abstract:

In the present study, the isogeometric topology optimization is proposed for cracked structures through using Solid Isotropic Material with Penalization (SIMP) as a design model. Design density variables defined in the variable space are used to approximate the element analysis density by the bivariate B-spline basis functions. The mathematical formulation of topology optimization problem solving minimum structural compliance is an alternating active-phase algorithm with the Gauss-Seidel version as an optimization model of optimality criteria. Stiffness and adjoint sensitivity formulations linked to strain energy of cracked structure are proposed in terms of design density variables. Numerical examples demonstrate interactions of topology optimization to structures design with cracks.

Keywords: topology optimization, isogeometric, NURBS, design

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8668 Provisions for Risk in Islamic Banking and Finance in Comparison to the Conventional Banks in Malaysia

Authors: Rashid Masoud Ali Al-Mazrui, Ramadhani Mashaka Shabani

Abstract:

Islamic banks and financial institutions are exposed to the same risks as conventional banking. These risks include the rate return risk, credit or market risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk among others. However, being a financial institution that operates Islamic banking and finance operations, there is additional risk associated with its operations different from conventional finance, such as displacing commercial risk. They face Shari'ah compliance risks because of their failure to follow Shari'ah principles. To have proper mitigation and risk management, banks should have proper risk management policies to mitigate risks. This paper aims to study the risk management taken by Islamic banks in comparison with conventional banks. Also, the study evaluates the provisions for risk management taken by selected Islamic banks and conventional banks. The study employs qualitative analysis using secondary data by applying a content analysis approach with a sample size of 4 Islamic banks and four conventional banks ranging from 2010 to 2020. We find that these banks all use the same technique, except for the associated risk. The extra ways are used, but only for additional risks that are available to Islamic banking and finance.

Keywords: emerging risk, risk management, Islamic banking, conventional bank

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8667 A Mathematical Optimization Model for Locating and Fortifying Capacitated Warehouses under Risk of Failure

Authors: Tareq Oshan

Abstract:

Facility location and size decisions are important to any company because they affect profitability and success. However, warehouses are exposed to various risks of failure that affect their activity. This paper presents a mixed-integer non-linear mathematical model that can be used to determine optimal warehouse locations and sizes, which warehouses to fortify, and which branches should be assigned to specific warehouses when there is a risk of warehouse failure. Every branch is assigned to a fortified primary warehouse or a nonfortified primary warehouse and a fortified backup warehouse. The standard method and an introduced method, based on the average probabilities, for linearizing this mathematical model were used. A Canadian case study was used to demonstrate the developed mathematical model, followed by some sensitivity analysis.

Keywords: supply chain network design, fortified warehouse, mixed-integer mathematical model, warehouse failure risk

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8666 Sensitivity Analysis during the Optimization Process Using Genetic Algorithms

Authors: M. A. Rubio, A. Urquia

Abstract:

Genetic algorithms (GA) are applied to the solution of high-dimensional optimization problems. Additionally, sensitivity analysis (SA) is usually carried out to determine the effect on optimal solutions of changes in parameter values of the objective function. These two analyses (i.e., optimization and sensitivity analysis) are computationally intensive when applied to high-dimensional functions. The approach presented in this paper consists in performing the SA during the GA execution, by statistically analyzing the data obtained of running the GA. The advantage is that in this case SA does not involve making additional evaluations of the objective function and, consequently, this proposed approach requires less computational effort than conducting optimization and SA in two consecutive steps.

Keywords: optimization, sensitivity, genetic algorithms, model calibration

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8665 Optimizing Groundwater Pumping for a Complex Groundwater/Surface Water System

Authors: Emery A. Coppola Jr., Suna Cinar, Ferenc Szidarovszky

Abstract:

Over-pumping of groundwater resources is a serious problem world-wide. In addition to depleting this valuable resource, hydraulically connected sensitive ecological resources like wetlands and surface water bodies are often impacted and even destroyed by over-pumping. Effectively managing groundwater in a way that satisfy human demand while preserving natural resources is a daunting challenge that will only worsen with growing human populations and climate change. As presented in this paper, a numerical flow model developed for a hypothetical but realistic groundwater/surface water system was combined with formal optimization. Response coefficients were used in an optimization management model to maximize groundwater pumping in a complex, multi-layered aquifer system while protecting against groundwater over-draft, streamflow depletion, and wetland impacts. Pumping optimization was performed for different constraint sets that reflect different resource protection preferences, yielding significantly different optimal pumping solutions. A sensitivity analysis on the optimal solutions was performed on select response coefficients to identify differences between wet and dry periods. Stochastic optimization was also performed, where uncertainty associated with changing irrigation demand due to changing weather conditions are accounted for. One of the strengths of this optimization approach is that it can efficiently and accurately identify superior management strategies that minimize risk and adverse environmental impacts associated with groundwater pumping under different hydrologic conditions.

Keywords: numerical groundwater flow modeling, water management optimization, groundwater overdraft, streamflow depletion

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8664 Holistic Risk Assessment Based on Continuous Data from the User’s Behavior and Environment

Authors: Cinzia Carrodano, Dimitri Konstantas

Abstract:

Risk is part of our lives. In today’s society risk is connected to our safety and safety has become a major priority in our life. Each person lives his/her life based on the evaluation of the risk he/she is ready to accept and sustain, and the level of safety he/she wishes to reach, based on highly personal criteria. The assessment of risk a person takes in a complex environment and the impact of actions of other people’actions and events on our perception of risk are alements to be considered. The concept of Holistic Risk Assessment (HRA) aims in developing a methodology and a model that will allow us to take into account elements outside the direct influence of the individual, and provide a personalized risk assessment. The concept is based on the fact that in the near future, we will be able to gather and process extremely large amounts of data about an individual and his/her environment in real time. The interaction and correlation of these data is the key element of the holistic risk assessment. In this paper, we present the HRA concept and describe the most important elements and considerations.

Keywords: continuous data, dynamic risk, holistic risk assessment, risk concept

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8663 Portfolio Optimization under a Hybrid Stochastic Volatility and Constant Elasticity of Variance Model

Authors: Jai Heui Kim, Sotheara Veng

Abstract:

This paper studies the portfolio optimization problem for a pension fund under a hybrid model of stochastic volatility and constant elasticity of variance (CEV) using asymptotic analysis method. When the volatility component is fast mean-reverting, it is able to derive asymptotic approximations for the value function and the optimal strategy for general utility functions. Explicit solutions are given for the exponential and hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) utility functions. The study also shows that using the leading order optimal strategy results in the value function, not only up to the leading order, but also up to first order correction term. A practical strategy that does not depend on the unobservable volatility level is suggested. The result is an extension of the Merton's solution when stochastic volatility and elasticity of variance are considered simultaneously.

Keywords: asymptotic analysis, constant elasticity of variance, portfolio optimization, stochastic optimal control, stochastic volatility

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8662 Optimization of a High-Growth Investment Portfolio for the South African Market Using Predictive Analytics

Authors: Mia Françoise

Abstract:

This report aims to develop a strategy for assisting short-term investors to benefit from the current economic climate in South Africa by utilizing technical analysis techniques and predictive analytics. As part of this research, value investing and technical analysis principles will be combined to maximize returns for South African investors while optimizing volatility. As an emerging market, South Africa offers many opportunities for high growth in sectors where other developed countries cannot grow at the same rate. Investing in South African companies with significant growth potential can be extremely rewarding. Although the risk involved is more significant in countries with less developed markets and infrastructure, there is more room for growth in these countries. According to recent research, the offshore market is expected to outperform the local market over the long term; however, short-term investments in the local market will likely be more profitable, as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is predicted to outperform the S&P500 over the short term. The instabilities in the economy contribute to increased market volatility, which can benefit investors if appropriately utilized. Price prediction and portfolio optimization comprise the two primary components of this methodology. As part of this process, statistics and other predictive modeling techniques will be used to predict the future performance of stocks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Following predictive data analysis, Modern Portfolio Theory, based on Markowitz's Mean-Variance Theorem, will be applied to optimize the allocation of assets within an investment portfolio. By combining different assets within an investment portfolio, this optimization method produces a portfolio with an optimal ratio of expected risk to expected return. This methodology aims to provide a short-term investment with a stock portfolio that offers the best risk-to-return profile for stocks listed on the JSE by combining price prediction and portfolio optimization.

Keywords: financial stocks, optimized asset allocation, prediction modelling, South Africa

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8661 A Review on Robot Trajectory Optimization and Process Validation through off-Line Programming in Virtual Environment Using Robcad

Authors: Ashwini Umale

Abstract:

Trajectory planning and optimization is a fundamental problem in articulated robotics. It is often viewed as a two phase problem of initial feasible path planning around obstacles and subsequent optimization of a trajectory satisfying dynamical constraints. An optimized trajectory of multi-axis robot is important and directly influences the Performance of the executing task. Optimal is defined to be the minimum time to transition from the current speed to the set speed. In optimization of trajectory through virtual environment explores the most suitable way to represent robot motion from virtual environment to real environment. This paper aims to review the research of trajectory optimization in virtual environment using simulation software Robcad. Improvements are to be expected in trajectory optimization to generate smooth and collision free trajectories with minimization of overall robot cycle time.

Keywords: trajectory optimization, forward kinematics and reverse kinematics, dynamic constraints, robcad simulation software

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8660 A Risk Management Approach for Nigeria Manufacturing Industries

Authors: Olaniyi O. Omoyajowo

Abstract:

To be successful in today’s competitive global environment, manufacturing industry must be able to respond quickly to changes in technology. These changes in technology introduce new risks and hazards. The management of risk/hazard in a manufacturing process recommends method through which the success rate of an organization can be increased. Thus, there is a continual need for manufacturing industries to invest significant amount of resources in risk management, which in turn optimizes the production output and profitability of any manufacturing industry (if implemented properly). To help improve the existing risk prevention and mitigation practices in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) in Nigeria Manufacturing Industries (NMI), the researcher embarks on this research to develop a systematic Risk Management process.

Keywords: manufacturing management, risk, risk management, SMEs

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