Search results for: risk and uncertainty analysis

Authors: Beatrice Wamuyu Muchiri, Monika M. L. Dos Santos

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An increasingly recognised prevention approach for substance use entails reduction in risk factors and enhancement of promotive or protective factors in individuals and the environment surrounding them during their growth and development. However, in order to enhance the effectiveness of this approach, continuous study of risk aspects targeting different cultures, social groups and mixture of society has been recommended. This study evaluated the impact of potential risk and protective factors associated with family management and relations on adolescent substance abuse in South Africa. Exploratory analysis and cumulative odds ordinal logistic regression modelling was performed on the data while controlling for demographic and socio-economic characteristics on adolescent substance use. The most intensely used substances were tobacco, cannabis, cocaine, heroin and alcohol in decreasing order of use intensity. The specific protective or risk impact of family management or relations factors varied from substance to substance. Risk factors associated with demographic and socio-economic factors included being male, younger age, being in lower education grades, coloured ethnicity, adolescents from divorced parents and unemployed or fully employed mothers. Significant family relations risk and protective factors against substance use were classified as either family functioning and conflict or family bonding and support. Several family management factors, categorised as parental monitoring, discipline, behavioural control and rewards, demonstrated either risk or protective effect on adolescent substance use. Some factors had either interactive risk or protective impact on substance use or lost significance when analysed jointly with other factors such as controlled variables. Interaction amongst risk or protective factors as well as the type of substance should be considered when further considering interventions based on these risk or protective factors. Studies in other geographical regions, institutions and with better gender balance are recommended to improve upon the representativeness of the results. Several other considerations to be made when formulating interventions, the shortcomings of this study and possible improvements as well as future studies are also suggested.

Keywords: risk factors, protective factors, substance use, adolescents

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Authors: Ebrahim Ghanbari, Mohammad Reza Nematollahi

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Integrating deterministic and probabilistic safety assessment (IDPSA) is one of the most commonly used issues in the field of safety analysis of power plant accident. It has also been recognized today that the role of human error in creating these accidents is not less than systemic errors, so the human interference and system errors in fault and event sequences are necessary. The integration of these analytical topics will be reflected in the frequency of core damage and also the study of the use of water resources in an accident such as the loss of all electrical power of the plant. In this regard, the SBO accident was simulated for the pressurized water reactor in the deterministic analysis issue, and by analyzing the operator's behavior in controlling the accident, the results of the combination of deterministic and probabilistic assessment were identified. The results showed that the best performance of the plant operator would reduce the risk of an accident by 10%, as well as a decrease of 6.82 liters/second of the water sources of the plant.

Keywords: IDPSA, human error, SBO, risk

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Authors: Hamideh S. Shahidi

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This research examines destination image and its impact on tourist revisit intention. Destination images can evolve over time, depending on a number of factors. Due to the multidimensional nature of destination image, the full extent of what might influence that change is not yet fully understood. As a result, the destination image should be measured with a heavy consideration of the variables used. Depending on the time and circumstances, these variables should be adjusted based on the research’s objectives. The aim of this research is to evaluate the image of destinations that may be perceived as risky, such as Iran, from the perspective of European cultural travellers. Further to the goal of understanding the effects of an image on tourists’ decision-making, the research will assess the impact of destination image on the revisit intention using push and pull factors and perceived risks with the potential moderating effect of cultural contact (the direct interaction between the host and the tourists with different culture). In addition, the moderating effect of uncertainty avoidance on revisit intention after Iran’s crisis in 2022 will be measured. Furthermore, the level of uncertainty avoidance between gender and age will be compared.

Keywords: destination image, Iran’s 2022 crisis, revisit intention, uncertainty avoidance

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Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

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Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults

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Authors: Rafael Alvarenga, Hubert Herbaux, Laurent Linguet

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The uncertainty concerning the power production of intermittent renewable energy is one of the main barriers to the integration of such assets into the power grid. Efforts have thus been made to develop methods to quantify this uncertainty, allowing producers to ensure more reliable and profitable engagements related to their future power delivery. Even though a diversity of probabilistic approaches was proposed in the literature giving promising results, the added value of adopting such methods for scheduling intermittent power plants is still unclear. In this study, the profits obtained by a decision-making model used to optimally schedule an existing PV power plant connected to batteries are compared when the model is fed with deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated with two of the most recent methods proposed in the literature. Moreover, deterministic forecasts with different accuracy levels were used in the experiments, testing the utility and the capability of probabilistic methods of modeling the progressively increasing uncertainty. Even though probabilistic approaches are unquestionably developed in the recent literature, the results obtained through a study case show that deterministic forecasts still provide the best performance if accurate, ensuring a gain of 14% on final profits compared to the average performance of probabilistic models conditioned to the same forecasts. When the accuracy of deterministic forecasts progressively decreases, probabilistic approaches start to become competitive options until they completely outperform deterministic forecasts when these are very inaccurate, generating 73% more profits in the case considered compared to the deterministic approach.

Keywords: PV power forecasting, uncertainty quantification, optimal scheduling, power systems

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Authors: Joshua Midha

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This paper provides an evaluation of an intervention designed to promote a risk-realistic environment for women in the workplace and regulate their risk-related decision-making. In past research, women -specifically women of color- are highly risk-averse, and this may prove to be an innate obstacle in gender progress in corporations. By helping women see the risks and the benefits and increasing potential benefits, we can increase the chances of success in the workplace. Our intervention was a success and significantly increased comfort, trust, and frequency in the use of decision-making skills in the workplace. In this paper, we explore the intervention, the methods, the results, and the implications.

Keywords: behavioral economics, decision support, risk, gender equality

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Authors: Paul W. Murray, Marco Barajas

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Recent changes in supply chains, especially globalization and collaboration, have created new risks for enterprises of all sizes. A variety of complex frameworks, often based on enterprise risk management strategies have been presented under the heading of Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM). The literature on promotes the benefits of a robust SCRM strategy; however, implementing SCRM is difficult and resource demanding for Large Enterprises (LEs), and essentially out of reach for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). This research debunks the idea that SCRM is necessary for all enterprises and instead proposes a simple and effective Vendor Selection Template (VST). Empirical testing and a survey of supply chain practitioners provide a measure of validation to the VST. The resulting VSTis a valuable contribution because is easy to use, provides practical results, and is sufficiently flexible to be universally applied to SMEs.

Keywords: multiple regression analysis, supply chain management, risk assessment, vendor selection

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Authors: Yung-Feng Yen, Yun-Ju Lai

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Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is reversible; however, the effect of changes in MetS status on the risk of incident cancer has not been extensively studied. We aimed to investigate the effects of changes in MetS status on incident cancer risk. Methods: This prospective, longitudinal study used data from Taiwan’s MJ cohort of 157,915 adults recruited from 2002–2016 who had repeated MetS measurements 5.2 (±3.5) years apart and were followed up for the new onset of cancer over 8.2 (±4.5) years. A new diagnosis of incident cancer in study individuals was confirmed by their pathohistological reports. The participants’ MetS status included MetS-free (n=119,331), MetS-developed (n=14,272), MetS-recovered (n=7,914), and MetS-persistent (n=16,398). We used the Fine-Gray sub-distribution method, with death as the competing risk, to determine the association between MetS changes and the risk of incident cancer. Results: During the follow-up period, 7,486 individuals had new development of cancer. Compared with the MetS-free group, MetS-persistent individuals had a significantly higher risk of incident cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.18). Considering the effect of dynamic changes in MetS status on the risk of specific cancer types, MetS persistence was significantly associated with a higher risk of incident colon and rectum, kidney, pancreas, uterus, and thyroid cancer. The risk of kidney, uterus, and thyroid cancer in MetS-recovered individuals was higher than in those who remained MetS but lower than MetS-persistent individuals. Conclusions: Persistent MetS is associated with a higher risk of incident cancer, and recovery from MetS may reduce the risk. The findings of our study suggest that it is imperative for individuals with pre-existing MetS to seek treatment for this condition to reduce the cancer risk.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome change, cancer, risk factor, cohort study

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Authors: Iyanujesu Adereti, Tajudeen Basiru, Ayodamola Olanipekun

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Background: Substance abuse among adolescents is of public health concern globally. Despite being the most abused by adolescents, there are limited studies on the prevalence of alcohol use and cigarette smoking among adolescents in Mauritius. Objectives: To determine the prevalence of cigarette smoking, alcohol use and associated correlates among school-going adolescents in Mauritius. Methodology: Data obtained from 2017 WHO Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) survey of 3,012 school-going adolescents in Mauritius was analyzed using STATA. Descriptive statistics were used to obtain prevalence. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate predictors of cigarette smoking and alcohol use. Results: Prevalence of alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking were 26.0% and 17.1%, respectively. Smoking and alcohol use was more prevalent among males, younger adolescents, and those in higher school grades (p-value <.000). In multivariable logistic regression, male gender was associated with a higher risk of cigarette smoking (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) [95%Confidence Interval (CI)]= 1.51[1.06-2.14]) but lower risk of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 0.69[0.53-0.90]) while older age (mid and late adolescence) and parental smoking were found to be associated with increased risk of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 1.94[1.34-2.99] and 1.36[1.05-1.78] respectively). Marijuana use, truancy, being in a fight and suicide ideation were associated with increased odds of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 3.82[3.39-6.09]; 2.15[1.62-2.87]; 1.83[1.34-2.49] and 1.93[1.38-2.69] respectively) and cigarette smoking (aOR[95%CI]= 17.28[10.4 - 28.51]; 1.73[1.21-2. 49]; 1.67[1.14-2.45] and 2.17[1.43-3.28] respectively) while involvement in sexual activity was associated with reduced risk of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 0.50[0.37-0.68]) and cigarette smoking (aOR[95%CI]= 0.47[0.33-0.69]). Parental support and parental monitoring were uniquely associated with lower risk of cigarette smoking (aOR[95%CI]= 0.69[0.47-0.99] and 0.62[0.43-0.91] respectively). Conclusion: The high prevalence of alcohol use and cigarette smoking in this study shows the need for the government of Mauritius to enhance policies that will help address this issue putting into accounts the various risk and protective factors.

Keywords: adolescent health, alcohol use, cigarette smoking, global school-based student health survey

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Authors: Masuma Novak, Daniel Novak

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Background: Sweden along with other Nordic countries has the highest incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) worldwide. The trend is increasing globally. The diagnosis is often given at the emergency clinic when children arrive with cardinal symptom of T1DM. Children with T1DM are known to have an increased risk of microvascular- and macrovascular complications. A family history of cardiovascular complications may further increase their risk. Clinically evident diabetes-related vascular complications are however rarely visible in childhood and adolescence, whereby an intensive diabetes treatment and normoglycemic control is a goal for every child. This study is a risk evaluation of children with T1DM based on their family’s cardiovascular history. Method: Since 2005 the Better Diabetes Diagnosis (BDD) study is a nationwide Swedish prospective cohort study that recruits new-onset T1DM who are less than 18 years old at time of diagnosis. For each newly diagnosed child, blood samples are collected for specific HLA genotyping and islet autoantibody assays and their family’s cardiovascular history is evaluated. As part of the BDD study, during the years 2010-2013 all children diagnosed with T1DM at the Queen Silvia’s Children’s Hospital in Sweden were asked about their family’s cardiovascular history. Questions regarded maternal and paternal high blood pressure, stroke, and myocardial infarction before the age of 55 years, and hyperlipidemia were answered. A maximum risk score of eight was possible. All children are clinically observed prospectively for early functional and structural abnormalities such as protein uremia, blood pressure, and retinopathy. Results: A total of 275 children aged 0 to 18 years were diagnosed with T1DM at the Queen Silvia’s Children’s Hospital emergency clinic during this four year period. The participation rate was 99.7%. 26.4% of the children had no hereditary cardiovascular risk factors. 22.7 % had one risk factor and 18.8% had two risk factors. 14.8% had three risk factors. 9.7% had four risk factors and 7.5% had five risk factors or more. Conclusion: Among children with T1DM in Sweden there is a difference in hereditary cardiovascular risk factors. These results indicate that children with T1DM who also have increased hereditary cardiovascular risk factors should be monitored closely with early screening for functional and structural cardiovascular abnormalities. This is a very preliminary and ongoing study which will be complemented with the cardiovascular risk analysis among children without T1DM.

Keywords: children, type I diabetes, emergency clinic, CVD risk

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Authors: Pırıl Tekin, Rızvan Erol

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Risk management has become very important and popular in developing countries in recent years. Especially making patient and employee health and safety issues compulsory in the hospitals, raised the number of studies in Turkey. Also risk management become more important for hospital senior management from clinics to the laboratories. Because quality is really important to be chosen for both patients to consult and employees to prefer to work. And also risk management studies can lead to hospital management team about future works and methods. By this point of view, this study is the risk assessment carried out in the biggest dental hospital in the south part of Turkey. This study was conducted as a research case study, covering two different health care place; A Clinic and A Laboratory. It shows that the problems in this dental hospital and how it can solve all.

Keywords: risk management, healthcare, dental hospital, quality management

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Authors: T. C. Hsu, H. L. Lin

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Taiwan is mountainous country, 70% of land is covered with mountains. Because of extreme climate, the mountain villages with sensitive and fragile environment often get easily affected by inundation and debris flow from typhoon which brings huge rainfall. Due to inappropriate development, overuse and fewer access roads, occurrence of disaster becomes more frequent through downpour and rescue actions are postponed. However, risk map is generally established through administrative boundaries, the difference of urban and rural area is ignored. The neglect of mountain village characteristics eventually underestimates the importance of factors related to vulnerability and reduces the effectiveness. In disaster management, there are different strategies and actions at each stage. According to different tasks, there will be different risk indices and weights to analyze disaster risk for each stage and then it will contribute to confront threat and reduce impact appropriately on right time. Risk map is important in mitigation, but also in response stage because some factors such as road network will be changed by disaster. This study will use risk assessment to establish risk map of Shanlin District which is mountain village in Kaohsiung as a case study in mitigation and response stage through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP helps to recognize the composition and weights of risk factors in mountain village by experts’ opinions through survey design and is combined with present potential hazard map to produce risk map.

Keywords: risk assessment, mountain village, risk map, analytic hierarchy process

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Authors: Choppala Pratheek, Vineet Ahuja

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Background: Crohn's disease (CD) recurrence following surgery is a common challenge, and current detection methods rely on risk factors identified in Western populations. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors and rates of postoperative CD recurrence in a tuberculosis-endemic region like India. Retrospective data was collected from a structured database from a specialty IBD clinic by reviewing case files from January 2005 to December 2021. Inclusion criteria involved CD patients diagnosed based on the ECCO-ESGAR consensus guidelines, who had undergone at least one intestinal resection and had a minimum follow-up period of one year at the IBD clinic. Results: A total of 90 patients were followed up for a median period of 45 months (IQR, 20.75 - 72.00). Out of the 90 patients, 61 received ATT prior to surgery, with a mean delay in diagnosis of 2.5 years, although statistically non-significant (P=0.078). Clinical recurrence occurred in 50% of patients, with the cumulative rate increasing from 13.3% at one year to 40% at three years. Among 63 patients who underwent endoscopy, 65.7% showed evidence of endoscopic recurrence, with the cumulative rate increasing from 31.7% at one year to 55.5% at four years. Smoking was identified as a significant risk factor for early endoscopic recurrence (P=0.001) by Cox regression analysis, but no other risk factors were identified. Initiating post-operative medications prior to clinical recurrence delayed its onset (P=0.004). Subgroup analysis indicated that endoscopic monitoring aided in the early identification of recurrence (P=0.001). The findings contribute to enhancing post-operative CD management strategies in such regions where the disease burden is escalating.

Keywords: crohns, post operative, tuberculosis-endemic, risk factors

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Authors: Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Masoud Ferdosi, Abbas Haghshenas, Fatemeh Rezaei

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Surgical procedures aim at preserving human life and improving quality of their life. However, there are many potential risk sources that can cause serious harm to patients. For centuries, managers believed that technical competence of a surgeon is the only key to a successful surgery. But over the past decade, risks are considered in terms of process-based safety procedures, teamwork and inter departmental communication. Aims: This study aims to determine how the process- biased surgical risk management should be done in terms of project management tool named ABS (Activity Breakdown Structure). Settings and Design: This study was conducted in two stages. First, literature review and meeting with professors was done to determine principles and framework of surgical risk management. Next, responsible teams for surgical patient journey were involved in following meeting to develop the process- biased surgical risk management. Methods and Material: This study is a qualitative research in which focus groups with the inductive approach is used. Sampling was performed to achieve representativeness through intensity sampling biased on experience and seniority. Analysis Method used: context analysis of interviews and consensus themes extracted from FDG meetings discussion was the analysis tool. Results: we developed the patient journey process in 5 main phases, 24 activities and 108 tasks. Then, responsible teams, transposition and allocated places for performing determined. Some activities and tasks themes were repeated in each phases like patient identification and records review because of their importance. Conclusions: Risk management of surgical departments is significant as this facility is the hospital’s largest cost and revenue center. Good communication between surgical team and other clinical teams outside surgery department through process- biased perspective could improve safety of patient under this procedure.

Keywords: risk management, activity breakdown structure (ABS), surgical department, medical sciences

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Authors: Liaqat Ali, Khalid Farooq, Shafieullah Khan, Nasir Orakzai, Qudratullah

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Objectives: To determine the risk factors for high resistance of ciprofloxacin in complicated urinary tract infections. Materials and Methods: It is an analytical study that was conducted in the department of Urology (Team ‘C’) at Institute of Kidney Diseases Hayatabad Peshawar from 1st June 2012 till 31st December 2012. Total numbers of 100 patients with complicated UTI was selected in the study. Multivariate analysis and linear regression were performed for the detection of risk factors. All the data was recorded on structured Proforma and was analyzed on SPSS version 17. Results: The mean age of the patient was 55.6 years (Range 3-82 years). 62 patients were male while 38 patients were female. 66 isolates of E-Coli were found sensitive to ciprofloxacin while 34 isolates were found Resistant for ciprofloxacin. Using multivariate analysis and linear regression, an increasing age above 50 (p=0.002) History of urinary catheterization especially for bladder outflow obstruction (p=0.001) and previous multiple use of ciprofloxacin (p=0.001) and poor brand of ciprofloxacin were found to be independent risk factors for high resistance of ciprofloxacin. Conclusion: UTI is common illness across the globe with increasing trend of antimicrobial resistance for ciprofloxacin against E Coli in complicated UTI. The risk factors for emerging resistance are increasing age, urinary catheterization and multiple use and poor brand of ciprofloxacin.

Keywords: urinary tract infection, ciprofloxacin, urethral catheterization, antimicrobial resistance

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Authors: Muhammad A. Alsubaie, Mubarak K. H. Alhajri, Tarek S. Altowaim

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A repetitive controller designed to accommodate periodic disturbances via state feedback is discussed. Periodic disturbances can be represented by a time delay model in a positive feedback loop acting on system output. A direct use of the small gain theorem solves the periodic disturbances problem via 1) isolating the delay model, 2) finding the overall system representation around the delay model and 3) designing a feedback controller that assures overall system stability and tracking error convergence. This paper addresses uncertainty conditions for the repetitive controller designed in state feedback in either past error feedforward or current error feedback using singular values. The uncertainty investigation is based on the overall system found and the stability condition associated with it; depending on the scheme used, to set an upper/lower limit weighting parameter. This creates a region that should not be exceeded in selecting the weighting parameter which in turns assures performance improvement against system uncertainty. Repetitive control problem can be described in lifted form. This allows the usage of singular values principle in setting the range for the weighting parameter selection. The Simulation results obtained show a tracking error convergence against dynamic system perturbation if the weighting parameter chosen is within the range obtained. Simulation results also show the advantage of weighting parameter usage compared to the case where it is omitted.

Keywords: model mismatch, repetitive control, singular values, state feedback

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Authors: Jo Angouri, Charlotte Kennedy, Shawnea Ting, David Rawlinson, Matthew Booker, Nigel Rees

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Ambulance services need to balance the large volume of emergency (999 in the UK) calls they receive (e.g., West Midlands Ambulance Service reports per day about 4,000 999 calls; about 679,000 calls per year are received in Wales), with dispatching limited resource for on-site intervention to the most critical cases. The process by which Emergency Medical Dispatch (EMD) decisions are made is related to risk assessment and involves the caller and call-taker as well as clinical teams negotiating risk levels on a case-by-case basis. Medical Priority Dispatch System (MPDS – also referred to as Advanced Medical Priority Dispatch System AMPDS) are used in the UK by NHS Trusts (e.,g WAST) to process and prioritise 999 calls. MPDS / AMPDS provide structured protocols for call prioritisation and call management. Protocols/policy frameworks have not been examined before in the way we propose in our project. In more detail, the risk factors that play a role in the EMD negotiation between the caller and call-taker have been analysed in both medical and social science research. Research has focused on the structural, morphological and phonological aspects that could improve, and train, human-to-human interaction or automate risk detection, as well as the medical factors that need to be captured from the caller to inform the dispatch decision. There are two significant gaps in our knowledge that we address in our work: 1. the role of backstage clinical teams in translating the caller/call-taker interaction in their internal risk negotiation and, 2. the role of policy frameworks, protocols and regulations in the framing of institutional priorities and resource allocation. We take a multi method approach and combine the analysis of 999 calls with the analysis of policy documents. We draw on interaction analysis, corpus methodologies and thematic analysis. In this paper, we report on our preliminary findings and focus in particular on the risk factors we have identified and the relationship with the regulations that create the frame within which teams operate. We close the paper with implications of our study for providing evidence-based policy intervention and recommendations for further research.

Keywords: emergency (999) call, interaction analysis, discourse analysis, ambulance dispatch, medical discourse

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Authors: Renny Wulandari

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This study aims to determine how the influence of Non Performing Financing, Financing Deposit Ratio, Operating Expenses and Operating Revenue and Net Income Margin on the disclosure of financial risk in Sharia banks. To achieve these objectives conducted associative research method with data source in the form of secondary data that is annual report data with period 2013-2016. The population in this study is the sharia banking industry in Indonesia and who issued the annual financial statements. A method of sampling use probability sampling. Analysis in this research is with SEM-PLS. The result is Net Income Margin has a significant effect on financial risk disclosure while Non Performing Financing (NPF) Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR), Operating Expenses and Operating Revenue (OEOR) have no effect on the disclosure of financial risk in sharia bank.

Keywords: Sharia banks, disclosure of risk financial, non performing financing, financing deposit ratio, operating expenses and operating revenue, net income margin

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Authors: Yangze Lan, Ruihua Xv, Feng Zhou, Yijia Shan, Longhao Zhang, Qinghui Xv

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Receiving and dispatching trains is an important part of railroad organization, and the risky evaluation of operating personnel is still reflected by scores, lacking further excavation of wrong answers and operating accidents. With natural language processing (NLP) technology, this study extracts the keywords and key phrases of 40 relevant risk events about receiving and dispatching trains and reclassifies the risk events into 8 categories, such as train approach and signal risks, dispatching command risks, and so on. Based on the historical risk data of personnel, the K-Means clustering method is used to classify the risk level of personnel. The result indicates that the high-risk operating personnel need to strengthen the training of train receiving and dispatching operations towards essential trains and abnormal situations.

Keywords: receiving and dispatching trains, natural language processing, risk evaluation, K-means clustering

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Authors: A. Dehghani, S. Shirin

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We propose in this article a new configuration of quantum states, |α, β> := |α>×|β>. Which are composed of vector products of two different copies of spin coherent states, |α> and |β>. Some mathematical as well as physical properties of such states are discussed. For instance, it has been shown that the cross products of two coherent vectors remain coherent again. They admit a resolution of the identity through positive definite measures on the complex plane. They represent packets similar to the true coherent states, in other words we would not expect to take spin squeezing in any of the field quadratures Lˆx, Lˆy and Lˆz. Depending on the particular choice of parameters in the above scenarios, they can be converted into the so-called Dicke states which minimize the uncertainty relations of each pair of the angular momentum components.

Keywords: vector (Cross-)products, minimum uncertainty, angular momentum, measurement, Dicke states

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Authors: Érick Aragão Ribeiro, George André Pereira Thé, José Marques Soares

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Several problems in industrial supervision software development projects may lead to the delay or cancellation of projects. These problems can be avoided or contained by using identification methods, analysis and control of risks. These procedures can give an overview of the possible problems that can happen in the projects and what are the immediate solutions. Therefore, we propose a risk management method applied to the teaching and development of industrial supervision software. The method is developed through a literature review and previous projects can be divided into phases of management and have basic features that are validated with experimental research carried out by mechatronics engineering students and professionals. The management is conducted through the stages of identification, analysis, planning, monitoring, control and communication of risks. Programmers use a method of prioritizing risks considering the gravity and the possibility of occurrence of the risk. The outputs of the method indicate which risks occurred or are about to happen. The first results indicate which risks occur at different stages of the project and what risks have a high probability of occurring. The results show the efficiency of the proposed method compared to other methods, showing the improvement of software quality and leading developers in their decisions. This new way of developing supervision software helps students identify design problems, evaluate software developed and propose effective solutions. We conclude that the risk management optimizes the development of the industrial process control software and provides higher quality to the product.

Keywords: supervision software, risk management, industrial supervision, project management

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Authors: E. Channol, O. Collet, N. Kostyuchyk, T. Mesbah, Quoc Hoang Long Nguyen

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In this paper, a pricing model is proposed for co-integrated commodities extending Larsson model. The futures formulae have been derived and tests have been performed with non-constant volatility. The model has been applied to energy commodities (gas, CO2, energy) and soft commodities (corn, wheat). Results show that non-constant volatility leads to more accurate short term prices, which provides better evaluation of value-at-risk and more generally improve the risk management.

Keywords: co-integration, soft commodities, risk management, value-at-risk

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Authors: Ashley Wei-Ting Wang, Wen-Yau Hsu

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Objectives: The current study applies and expands the Tripartite Model to elaborate the link between non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicidal behavior. We propose a structural model of NSSI and suicidal risk, in which negative affect (NA) predicts both anxiety and depression, positive affect (PA) predicts depression only, anxiety is linked to NSSI, and depression is linked to suicidal risk. Method: Four hundreds and eighty seven undergraduates participated. Data were collected by administering self-report questionnaires. We performed hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling to test the proposed structural model. Results: The results largely support the proposed structural model, with one exception: anxiety was strongly associated with NSSI and to a lesser extent with suicidal risk. Conclusions: We conclude that the co-occurrence of NSSI and suicidal risk is due to NA and anxiety, and suicidal risk can be differentiated by depression. Further theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Keywords: non-suicidal self-injury, suicidal risk, anxiety, depression, the tripartite model, hierarchical relationship

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Authors: Omid Giahi, Ebrahim Darvishi, Mahdi Akbarzadeh

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Introduction: Occupational low back pain (LBP) is one of the most prevalent work-related musculoskeletal disorders in which a lot of risk factors are involved that. The present study focuses on the relation between personal, psycho-social and occupational risk factors and LBP severity in industrial workers. Materials and Methods: This research was a case-control study which was conducted in Kurdistan province. 100 workers (Mean Age ± SD of 39.9 ± 10.45) with LBP were selected as the case group, and 100 workers (Mean Age ± SD of 37.2 ± 8.5) without LBP were assigned into the control group. All participants were selected from various industrial units, and they had similar occupational conditions. The required data including demographic information (BMI, smoking, alcohol, and family history), occupational (posture, mental workload (MWL), force, vibration and repetition), and psychosocial factors (stress, occupational satisfaction and security) of the participants were collected via consultation with occupational medicine specialists, interview, and the related questionnaires and also the NASA-TLX software and REBA worksheet. Chi-square test, logistic regression and structural equation modeling (SEM) were used to analyze the data. For analysis of data, IBM Statistics SPSS 24 and Mplus6 software have been used. Results: 114 (77%) of the individuals were male and 86 were (23%) female. Mean Career length of the Case Group and Control Group were 10.90 ± 5.92, 9.22 ± 4.24, respectively. The statistical analysis of the data revealed that there was a significant correlation between the Posture, Smoking, Stress, Satisfaction, and MWL with occupational LBP. The odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) derived from a logistic regression model were 2.7 (1.27-2.24) and 2.5 (2.26-5.17) and 3.22 (2.47-3.24) for Stress, MWL, and Posture, respectively. Also, the SEM analysis of the personal, psycho-social and occupational factors with LBP revealed that there was a significant correlation. Conclusion: All three broad categories of risk factors simultaneously increase the risk of occupational LBP in the workplace. But, the risks of Posture, Stress, and MWL have a major role in LBP severity. Therefore, prevention strategies for persons in jobs with high risks for LBP are required to decrease the risk of occupational LBP.

Keywords: industrial workers occupational, low back pain, occupational risk factors, psychosocial factors

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Authors: Hilalah Alturkistani, Alaa AlFaadhel, Nora AlJahani, Fatiha Djebbar

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Cloud computing is one of the most widely used technology which provides opportunities and services to government entities, large companies, and standard users. However, cybersecurity risk management studies of cloud computing and resiliency approaches are lacking. This paper proposes resilient cloud cybersecurity risk assessment and management tailored specifically, to Dropbox with two approaches:1) technical-based solution motivated by a cybersecurity risk assessment of cloud services, and 2)a target personnel-based solution guided by cybersecurity-related survey among employees to identify their knowledge that qualifies them withstand to any cyberattack. The proposed work attempts to identify cloud vulnerabilities, assess threats and detect high risk components, to finally propose appropriate safeguards such as failure predicting and removing, redundancy or load balancing techniques for quick recovery and return to pre-attack state if failure happens.

Keywords: cybersecurity risk management plan, resilient cloud computing, cyberattacks, cybersecurity risk assessment

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Authors: Amir Ghasem Norouzi, Mahdi Zowghi

Abstract:

This study propose a framework based on the fuzzy T-Norms, T-conorm, a novel operator, and multi-expert approach to help organizations build awareness of the critical influential factors on the success of knowledge management (KM) implementation, analysis the failure of knowledge management. This study considers the complex uncertainty concept that is in knowledge management implementing capability (KMIC) and it is used by fuzzy logic for this reason. The contribution of our paper is shown with an empirical study in a nonprofit educational organization evaluation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, knowledge management, multi expert analysis, consensus oriented average operator

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Authors: Ines Gasmi, Salima Smiti, Makram Soui, Khaled Ghedira

Abstract:

Credit risk is considered as one of the important issues for financial institutions. It provokes great losses for banks. To this objective, numerous methods for credit risk evaluation have been proposed. Many evaluation methods are black box models that cannot adequately reveal information hidden in the data. However, several works have focused on building transparent rules-based models. For credit risk assessment, generated rules must be not only highly accurate, but also highly interpretable. In this paper, we aim to build both, an accurate and transparent credit risk evaluation model which proposes a set of classification rules. In fact, we consider the credit risk evaluation as an optimization problem which uses a genetic programming (GP) algorithm, where the goal is to maximize the accuracy of generated rules. We evaluate our proposed approach on the base of German and Australian credit datasets. We compared our finding with some existing works; the result shows that the proposed GP outperforms the other models.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, rule generation, genetic programming, feature selection

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Authors: Maria M. Giannakou, Athanasios K. Ziliaskopoulos

Abstract:

Transmission pipelines carrying natural gas are often routed through populated cities, industrial and environmentally sensitive areas. While the need for these networks is unquestionable, there are serious concerns about the risk these lifeline networks pose to the people, to their habitat and to the critical infrastructures, especially in view of natural disasters such as earthquakes. This work presents an Integrated Pipeline Risk Management methodology (IPRM) for assessing the hazard associated with a natural gas pipeline failure due to natural or manmade disasters. IPRM aims to optimize the allocation of the available resources to countermeasures in order to minimize the impacts of pipeline failure to humans, the environment, the infrastructure and the economic activity. A proposed knapsack mathematical programming formulation is introduced that optimally selects the proper mitigation policies based on the estimated cost – benefit ratios. The proposed model is demonstrated with a small numerical example. The vulnerability analysis of these pipelines and the quantification of consequences from such failures can be useful for natural gas industries on deciding which mitigation measures to implement on the existing pipeline networks with the minimum cost in an acceptable level of hazard.

Keywords: cost benefit analysis, knapsack problem, natural gas distribution network, risk management, risk mitigation

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Authors: Shan Li, Qiuwen Ma

Abstract:

Integrated project delivery (IPD) is a project delivery method distinguished by a shared risk/rewards mechanism and multiparty agreement. IPD has drawn increasing attention from construction industry due to its reliability to deliver high-performing buildings. However, unavailable IPD specific insurance concerns the industry participants who are interested in IPD implementation. Even though the risk management capability can be enhanced using shared risk mechanism, some risks may occur when the partners do not commit themselves into the integrated practices in a desired manner. This is because the intense collaboration and close integration can not only create added value but bring new opportunistic behaviors and disputes. The study is aimed to investigate the risks of implementing IPD using Bayesian theory. IPD risk taxonomy is presented to identify all potential risks of implementing IPD and a risk network map is developed to capture the interdependencies between IPD risks. The conditional relations between risk occurrences and the impacts of IPD risks on project performances are evaluated and simulated based on Bayesian theory. The probability of project outcomes is predicted by simulation. In addition, it is found that some risks caused by integration are most possible occurred risks. This study can help the IPD project participants identify critical risks of adopting IPD to improve project performances. In addition, it is helpful to develop IPD specific insurance when the pertinent risks can be identified.

Keywords: Bayesian theory, integrated project delivery, project risks, project performances

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Authors: Shoufeng Cao, Kim Bryceson, Damian Hine

Abstract:

The existing supply chain risk management (SCRM) research is currently chaotic and somewhat disorganized, and the topic has been addressed conceptually more often than empirically. This paper, using both qualitative and quantitative data, employs a modified Meta-study method to investigate the SCRM empirical research published in quality journals over the period of 12 years (2004-2015). The purpose is to outline the extent research trends and the employed research methodologies (i.e., research method, data collection and data analysis) across the sub-field that will guide future research. The synthesized findings indicate that empirical study on risk ripple effect along an entire supply chain, industry-specific supply chain risk management and global/export supply chain risk management has not yet given much attention than it deserves in the SCRM field. Besides, it is suggested that future empirical research should employ multiple and/or mixed methods and multi-source data collection techniques to reduce common method bias and single-source bias, thus improving research validity and reliability. In conclusion, this paper helps to stimulate more quality empirical research in the SCRM field via identifying promising research directions and providing some methodology guidelines.

Keywords: empirical research, meta-study, methodology guideline, research direction, supply chain risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 287