Search results for: relative humidity
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2615

Search results for: relative humidity

665 Spherical Organic Particle (SOP) Emissions from Fixed-Bed Residential Coal-Burning Devices

Authors: Tafadzwa Makonese, Harold Annegarn, Patricia Forbes

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Residential coal combustion is one of the largest sources of carbonaceous aerosols in the Highveld region of South Africa, significantly affecting the local and regional climate. In this study, we investigated single coal burning particles emitted when using different fire-ignition techniques (top-lit up-draft vs bottom-lit up-draft) and air ventilation rates (defined by the number of air holes above and below the fire grate) in selected informal braziers. Aerosol samples were collected on nucleopore filters at the SeTAR Centre Laboratory, University of Johannesburg. Individual particles (~700) were investigated using a scanning electron microscope equipped with an energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS). Two distinct forms of spherical organic particles (SOPs) were identified, one less oxidized than the other. The particles were further classified into "electronically" dark and bright, according to China et al. [2014]. EDS analysis showed that 70% of the dark spherical organic particles balls had higher (~60%) relative oxygen content than in the bright SOPs. We quantify the morphology of spherical organic particles and classify them into four categories: ~50% are bare single particles; ~35% particles are aggregated and form diffusion accretion chains; 10% have inclusions; and 5% are deformed due to impaction on filter material during sampling. We conclude that there are two distinct kinds of coal burning spherical organic particles and that dark SOPs are less volatile than bright SOPs. We also show that these spherical organic particles are similar in nature and characteristics to tar balls observed in biomass combustion, and that they have the potential to absorb sunlight thereby affecting the earth’s radiative budget and climate. This study provides insights on the mixing states, morphology, and possible formation mechanisms of these organic particles from residential coal combustion in informal stoves.

Keywords: spherical organic particles, residential coal combustion, fixed-bed, aerosols, morphology, stoves

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664 Ankaferd Blood Stopper (ABS) Has Protective Effect on Colonic Inflammation: An in Vitro Study in Raw 264.7 and Caco-2 Cells

Authors: Aysegul Alyamac, Sukru Gulec

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Ankaferd Blood Stopper (ABS) is a plant extract used to stop bleeding caused by injuries and surgical interventions. ABS also involved in wound healing of intestinal mucosal damage due to oxidative stress and inflammation. Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is a common chronic disorder of the gastrointestinal tract that causes abdominal pain, diarrhea, and gastrointestinal bleeding, and increases the risk of colon cancer. Inflammation is an essential factor in the development of IBD. The various studies have been performed about the physiological effects of ABS; however, ABS dependent mechanism on colonic inflammation has not been elucidated. Thus, the protective effect of ABS on colonic inflammation was investigated in this study. The Caco-2 and RAW 264.7 murine macrophage cells were used as a model of in vitro colonic inflammation. RAW 264.7 cells were treated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) for 12 hours to induce the inflammation, and a conditional medium was obtained. Caco-2 cells were treated with 15 µl/ml ABS for 4 hours, then incubated with conditional medium and the cells also were incubated with 15 µl/ml ABS and conditional medium together for 4 hours. Tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) protein levels were targeted in testing inflammatory condition and its level was significantly increased (25 fold, p<0.001) compared to the control group by using Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) method. The COX-2 mRNA level was used as a marker gene to show the possible anti-inflammatory effect of ABS in Caco-2 cells. RAW cells-derived conditional medium significantly (3.3 fold, p<0.001) induced cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) mRNA levels in Caco-2 cells. The pretreatment of Caco-2 cells caused a significant decrease (3.3 fold, p<0.001) in COX-2 mRNA levels relative to conditional medium given group. Furthermore, COX-2 mRNA level was significantly reduced (4,7 fold, p<0.001) in ABS and conditional medium treated group. These results suggest that ABS might have an anti-inflammatory effect in vitro.

Keywords: Ankaferd blood stopper, CaCo-2, colonic inflammation, RAW 264.7

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663 Genetic Association and Functional Significance of Matrix Metalloproteinase-14 Promoter Variants rs1004030 and rs1003349 in Gallbladder Cancer Pathogenesis

Authors: J. Vinay , Kusumbati Besra, Niharika Pattnaik, Shivaram Prasad Singh, Manjusha Dixit

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Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is rare but highly malignant cancer; its prevalence is more in certain geographical regions and ethnic groups, which include the Northern and Eastern states of India. Previous studies in India have reported genetic predisposition as one of the risk factors in GBC pathogenesis. Although the matrix metalloproteinase-14 (MMP14) is a well-known modulator of the tumor microenvironment and tumorigenesis and TCGA data also suggests its upregulation yet, its role in the genetic predisposition for GBC is completely unknown. We elucidated the role of MMP14 promoter variants as genetic risk factors and their implications in expression modulation. We screened MMP14 promoter variants association with GBC using Sanger’s sequencing in approximately 300 GBC and 300 control subjects and 26 GBC tissue samples of Indian ethnicity. The immunohistochemistry was used to check the MMP14 protein expression in GBC tissue samples. The role of promoter variants on expression levels was elucidated using a luciferase reporter assay. The variants rs1004030 (p-value = 0.0001) and rs1003349 (p-value = 0.0008) were significantly associated with gallbladder cancer. The luciferase assay in two different cell lines, HEK-293 (p = 0.0006) and TGBC1TKB (p = 0.0036) showed a significant increase in relative luciferase activity in the presence of risk alleles for both the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Similarly, genotype-phenotype correlation in patients samples confirmed that the presence of risk alleles at rs1004030 and rs1003349 increased MMP14 expression. Overall, this study unravels the genetic association of MMP14 promoter variants with gallbladder cancer, which may contribute to pathogenesis by increasing its expression.

Keywords: gallbladder cancer, matrix metalloproteinase-14, single nucleotide polymorphism, case control study, genetic association study

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662 Alternative Ways to Measure Impacts of Dam Closure to the Structure of Fish Communities of a Neotropical River

Authors: Ana Carolina Lima, Carlos Sérgio Agostinho, Amadeu M. V. M. Soares, Kieran A. Monaghan

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Neotropical freshwaters host some of the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world and are among the most threatened by habitat alterations. The high number of species and lack of basic ecological knowledge provides a major obstacle to understanding the effects of environmental change. We assessed the impact of dam closure on the fish communities of a neotropical river by applying simple descriptions of community organizations: Species Abundance Distribution (SAD) and Abundance Biomass Comparison (ABC) curves. Fish data were collected during three distinct time periods (one year before, one year after and five years after closure), at eight sites located downstream of the dam, in the reservoir and reservoir transition zone and upstream of the regulated flow. Dam closure was associated with changes in the structural and functional organization of fish communities at all sites. Species richness tended to increase immediately after dam closure while evenness decreased. Changes in taxonomic structure were accompanied by a change in the distribution of biomass with the proportionate contribution by smaller individuals significantly increased relative to larger individuals. Five years on, richness had fallen to below pre-closure levels at all sites, while the comparative stability of the transformed habitats was reflected by biomass-abundance distribution patterns that approximated pre-disturbance ratios. Despite initial generality, respective sites demonstrated distinct ecological responses that were related to the environmental characteristics of their transformed habitats. This simplistic analysis provides a sensitive and informative assessment of ecological conditions that highlights the impact to ecosystem process and ecological networks and has particular value in regions where detailed ecological knowledge precludes the application of traditional bioassessment methods.

Keywords: ABC curves, SADs, biodiversity, damming, tropical fish

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661 Design and Development of an Optimal Fault Tolerant 3 Degree of Freedom Robotic Manipulator

Authors: Ramish, Farhan Khalique Awan

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Kinematic redundancy within the manipulators presents extended dexterity and manipulability to the manipulators. Redundant serial robotic manipulators are very popular in industries due to its competencies to keep away from singularities during normal operation and fault tolerance because of failure of one or more joints. Such fault tolerant manipulators are extraordinarily beneficial in applications where human interference for repair and overhaul is both impossible or tough; like in case of robotic arms for space programs, nuclear applications and so on. The design of this sort of fault tolerant serial 3 DoF manipulator is presented in this paper. This work was the extension of the author’s previous work of designing the simple 3R serial manipulator. This work is the realization of the previous design with optimizing the link lengths for incorporating the feature of fault tolerance. Various measures have been followed by the researchers to quantify the fault tolerance of such redundant manipulators. The fault tolerance in this work has been described in terms of the worst-case measure of relative manipulability that is, in fact, a local measure of optimization that works properly for certain configuration of the manipulators. An optimum fault tolerant Jacobian matrix has been determined first based on prescribed null space properties after which the link parameters have been described to meet the given Jacobian matrix. A solid model of the manipulator was then developed to realize the mathematically rigorous design. Further work was executed on determining the dynamic properties of the fault tolerant design and simulations of the movement for various trajectories have been carried out to evaluate the joint torques. The mathematical model of the system was derived via the Euler-Lagrange approach after which the same has been tested using the RoboAnalyzer© software. The results have been quite in agreement. From the CAD model and dynamic simulation data, the manipulator was fabricated in the workshop and Advanced Machining lab of NED University of Engineering and Technology.

Keywords: fault tolerant, Graham matrix, Jacobian, kinematics, Lagrange-Euler

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660 Nowcasting Indonesian Economy

Authors: Ferry Kurniawan

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In this paper, we nowcast quarterly output growth in Indonesia by exploiting higher frequency data (monthly indicators) using a mixed-frequency factor model and exploiting both quarterly and monthly data. Nowcasting quarterly GDP in Indonesia is particularly relevant for the central bank of Indonesia which set the policy rate in the monthly Board of Governors Meeting; whereby one of the important step is the assessment of the current state of the economy. Thus, having an accurate and up-to-date quarterly GDP nowcast every time new monthly information becomes available would clearly be of interest for central bank of Indonesia, for example, as the initial assessment of the current state of the economy -including nowcast- will be used as input for longer term forecast. We consider a small scale mixed-frequency factor model to produce nowcasts. In particular, we specify variables as year-on-year growth rates thus the relation between quarterly and monthly data is expressed in year-on-year growth rates. To assess the performance of the model, we compare the nowcasts with two other approaches: autoregressive model –which is often difficult when forecasting output growth- and Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression. In particular, both mixed frequency factor model and MIDAS nowcasts are produced by exploiting the same set of monthly indicators. Hence, we compare the nowcasts performance of the two approaches directly. To preview the results, we find that by exploiting monthly indicators using mixed-frequency factor model and MIDAS regression we improve the nowcast accuracy over a benchmark simple autoregressive model that uses only quarterly frequency data. However, it is not clear whether the MIDAS or mixed-frequency factor model is better. Neither set of nowcasts encompasses the other; suggesting that both nowcasts are valuable in nowcasting GDP but neither is sufficient. By combining the two individual nowcasts, we find that the nowcast combination not only increases the accuracy - relative to individual nowcasts- but also lowers the risk of the worst performance of the individual nowcasts.

Keywords: nowcasting, mixed-frequency data, factor model, nowcasts combination

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659 The Effects of Prolonged Use of Caffeine on Thyroid and Adrenal Glands – A Retrospective Cohort Study

Authors: Vasishtha Avadhani Upadrasta, Mradul Kumar Daga, Smita Kaushik

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Background: Caffeine consumption has skyrocketed in the recent decades as we try to match pace with the machines. Studies have been conducted on animals and a few on humans, mainly on the acute effects of high-dose caffeine intake. Almost none have been conducted on the chronic effects of caffeine consumption. This study involved Medical professionals as case subjects, who consumed caffeine daily. Methods: This study, over a period of 3 months, involved 96 volunteers (chosen randomly w.r.t. gender and field in medical fraternity), including people who drank >500mg of caffeine a day to people who consumed none. People with any co-morbidities at all were excluded straight away. Two sets of blood samples were drawn and assessed. Three groups were created, Group 1 (>200mg caffeine/day) and Group 2 (15-200 mg caffeine/day) and Group 3 (<200mg Caffeine/day). Results: The result of the study found that exposure to caffeine at doses >200mg/day for more than 6 months leads to a significant difference in circulating free T3 [(-0.96 pmol/L ± 0.07) = (-18.5%), CI 95%, p = .000024] and Cortisol [(-123 nmol/L ± 9.8) = (-46.8%), CI 95%, p = .00029] hormones but shows an insignificant effect on circulating TSH [0.4 mIU/L, CI 95%, p=.37] and ACTH [(-3.2 pg/ml ± 0.3), CI 95%, p = .53) hormones, which stay within normal physiological ranges, irrespective of the daily dose of consumption. Results also highlight that women are more susceptible to decrement in fT3 than men (Relative Risk =1.58, ANOVA F-static = 7.15, p = 0.0105). Conclusions: Caffeine consumption in excess of 200mg/day, for more than or equal to 6 months, causes significant derangement in basal fT3 and Cortisol hormone levels, without affecting the TSH and ACTH (regulatory) hormone levels, indicating disturbance of action at the peripheral and/or cellular levels, possibly via the Paraventricular Nucleus –Leptin-CAR-Adenosine interactions. Women are more susceptible to decrement in fT3 levels than men (at same dose of caffeine).

Keywords: ACTH, adrenals, caffeine, cortisol, thyroid, thyroxin, TSH

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658 Relative Importance of Contact Constructs to Acute Respiratory Illness in General Population in Hong Kong

Authors: Kin On Kwok, Vivian Wei, Benjamin Cowling, Steven Riley, Jonathan Read

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Background: The role of social contact behavior measured in different contact constructs in the transmission of respiratory pathogens with acute respiratory illness (ARI) remains unclear. We, therefore, aim to depict the individual pattern of ARI in the community and investigate the association between different contact dimensions and ARI in Hong Kong. Methods: Between June 2013 and September 2013, 620 subjects participated in the last two waves of recruitment of the population based longitudinal phone social contact survey. Some of the subjects in this study are from the same household. They are also provided with the symptom diaries to self-report any acute respiratory illness related symptoms between the two days of phone recruitment. Data from 491 individuals who were not infected on the day of phone recruitment and returned the symptom diaries after the last phone recruitment were used for analysis. Results: After adjusting different follow-up periods among individuals, the overall incidence rate of ARI was 1.77 per 100 person-weeks. Over 75% ARI episodes involve running nose, cough, sore throat, which are followed by headache (55%), malagia (35%) and fever (18%). Using a generalized estimating equation framework accounting for the cluster effect of subjects living in the same household, we showed that both daily number of locations visited with contacts and the number of contacts, explained the ARI incidence rate better than only one single contact construct. Conclusion: Our result suggests that it is the intertwining property of contact quantity (number of contacts) and contact intensity (ratio of subject-to-contact) that governs the infection risk by a collective set of respiratory pathogens. Our results provide empirical evidence that multiple contact constructs should be incorporated in the mathematical transmission models to feature a more realistic dynamics of respiratory disease.

Keywords: acute respiratory illness, longitudinal study, social contact, symptom diaries

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657 Board Nomination and Selection Process in Indonesian State-Owned Enterprises

Authors: Synthia A. Sari

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The transparent nomination and selection process is the first step to obtaining qualified members of board. It is believed as the representative (agent) of the owners, members of the board must consist of competent and professional people. However, the development of transparent and ideal nomination and selection process in Indonesian State-owned enterprises (SOEs) has been based on relatively little research. Considering the relative importance attached by boards to conduct their roles in their principal’s interest in a variety of governance tasks in state-owned enterprises, the primary aim of this paper is to shed light on the extent of nomination and selection process impact performance of the board in implementing good corporate governance in Indonesian SOEs. The exploratory nature of this study led to the adoption of a qualitative research methodology which uses semi-structured interviews and publically available documents to collect a range of data pertaining board nomination and selection and the work of boards. Interviews were conducted with four informants from three Indonesian SOEs and Ministry of SOEs. Findings in this study demonstrate unclear job description and expectations board members as a result of unclear functions of the board in Indonesian SOEs make transparent and accountable nomination and selection process hard to conduct. This situation is vulnerable to the influences from political interest and that even the process itself can degenerate into situations of political interference. In the end, it leads to choosing the wrong person for membership of the board. This study makes a significant contribution to several fields; the human resource management, corporate governance, and Southeast studies by addressing the basic research gaps of board selection process issues in Indonesian SOEs. The gap is addressed by providing a more coherent framework for effective nomination and selection system which reflects more clearly the real experiences of those actually involved at board level.

Keywords: board selection and nomination process, Indonesian stated-owned enterprises, good corporate governance, political influence

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656 DNA Methylation 6mA and Histone Methylation Involved in Multi-/Trans-Generational Reproductive Effects in Caenorhabditis elegans Induced by Atrazine

Authors: Jiechen Yin, Xiang Hong, Ran Liu

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Atrazine (ATR), a widely used triazine herbicide, is an environmental endocrine disruptor that can cause health problems. However, whether there are multi/trans-generational reproductive impacts of ATR have not been studied to our best knowledge. Therefore, in this study, Caenorhabditis elegans was used as a preferable model organism to identify the multi/trans-generational reproductive toxicity of ATR. L1 larvae were exposed to different concentrations (0.0004–40 mg/L) of ATR for 48 h. Successive generations (F1 to F5) were fed without ATR and consecutive exposure. The results showed that ATR exposure during P0 decreased fecundity, including a reduction in fertilized eggs, oocytes, and ovulation rate, delayed gonadal development, and decreased the relative area of the gonad arm and germ cell number. Furthermore, continuous ATR exposure (P0–F5) causes a significant increase in reproductive toxicity in subsequent generations, although no significant toxicity occurred in the P0 generation after exposure to environmental-related concentrations, suggesting that ATR exposure might have cumulative effects. Likewise, parental exposure to ATR caused transgenerational toxicity impairments. Interestingly, reproductive toxicity not development toxicity was transmitted to several generations (F1–F4), and the F2 generation showed the most notable changes. QRT-PCR results showed that genes related to DNA methylation 6mA (damt-1, nmad-1) and histone H3 methylation (mes-4, met-2, set-25, set-2, and utx-1) can also be passed on to offspring. The function of H3K4 and H3K9 methylation were explored by using loss-of-function mutants for set-2, set-25, and met-2. Transmissible reproductive toxicity was absent in met-2(n4256), set-2(ok952), and set-25(n5021) mutants, which suggests that the histone methyltransferases H3K4 and H3K9 activity are indispensable for the transgenerational effect of ATR. Finally, the downstream genes of DNA methylation and histone H3 methylation were determined. ATR upregulated the expression of ZC317.7, hsp-6, and hsp-60. Mitochondrial stress in parental generation dependent transcription 6mA modifiers may establish these epigenetic marks in progeny.

Keywords: ATR, Caenorhabditis elegans, multi-/trans-generation, reproductive toxicity

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655 Antibiotic Resistance and Susceptibility of Bacteria Strains Isolated from Sheep Milk

Authors: Fatima Bouazza, Rachida Hassikou, Lamiae Amallah, Jihane Ennadir, Khadija Khedid

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This study evaluated the in vitro resistance and susceptibility of Enterobacteriaceae (Escherichia coli and Klebsiella oxytoca strains) and Staphylococci strains, isolated from sheep’s milk, against antibiotics and essential oils from Thymus satureioides and Mentha pulegium. Antibiotic resistance tests were done using disc diffusion while essential oils were extracted by steam distillation, and yields were calculated relative to plant dry matter. Gas chromatography-mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) was used to analyze each oil's chemical composition. The AMC, CTX, FOX, NA, CN, CIP, and OFX were very effective against the E. coli strains tested. Half of the strains were resistant to AMC, 60% to TIC, and 80% to TE. The K. oxytoca was resistant against AMC, FOX, and TIC (100%). Antibiotic-resistant testing on Staphylococci strains indicated Staphylococcus capitis and Staphylococcus chromogenes as the most sensitive. Staphylococcus aureus, Staphylococcus xylosus, and Staphylococcus cohnii ureal exhibited less resistance to OX, TE, PT, E, and P. The M. pulegium resulted in a higher yield of essential oil of 3.2% oil compared to T. satureioides with only 1.85% yield. Staphylococcus aureus, Staphylococcus xylosus, and Staphylococcus cohnii ureal had lower OX, TE, PT, E, and P resistance. M. pulegium yielded 3.2% essential oil compared to 1.85% for T. satureioides. The monoterpene oxygenated derivatives, monoterpene hydrocarbons, and phenols are found in essential oil extracts. T. satureioides essential oil had high antibacterial activity even at low concentrations (0.2; 0.55 g/mL). The Minimal Bactericidal Concentration (MBC) values indicate that the essential oils from the plants analyzed had bactericidal effects on all strains tested and are similar to the Minimal Inhibitory Concentration (MIC) values. The high antibacterial properties of these medicinal plants, against bacteria isolated from sheep’s milk, provide an opportunity to use these medicinal plants in the breeding sector as additives and preservatives in the dairy industry.

Keywords: antibiotic resistance, medicinal plants, essential oils, enterobacteriaceae, staphylococci, sheep milk

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654 Testing for Endogeneity of Foreign Direct Investment: Implications for Economic Policy

Authors: Liwiusz Wojciechowski

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Research background: The current knowledge does not give a clear answer to the question of the impact of FDI on productivity. Results of the empirical studies are still inconclusive, no matter how extensive and diverse in terms of research approaches or groups of countries analyzed they are. It should also take into account the possibility that FDI and productivity are linked and that there is a bidirectional relationship between them. This issue is particularly important because on one hand FDI can contribute to changes in productivity in the host country, but on the other hand its level and dynamics may imply that FDI should be undertaken in a given country. As already mentioned, a two-way relationship between the presence of foreign capital and productivity in the host country should be assumed, taking into consideration the endogenous nature of FDI. Purpose of the article: The overall objective of this study is to determine the causality between foreign direct investment and total factor productivity in host county in terms of different relative absorptive capacity across countries. In the classic sense causality among variables is not always obvious and requires for testing, which would facilitate proper specification of FDI models. The aim of this article is to study endogeneity of selected macroeconomic variables commonly being used in FDI models in case of Visegrad countries: main recipients of FDI in CEE. The findings may be helpful in determining the structure of the actual relationship between variables, in appropriate models estimation and in forecasting as well as economic policymaking. Methodology/methods: Panel and time-series data techniques including GMM estimator, VEC models and causality tests were utilized in this study. Findings & Value added: The obtained results allow to confirm the hypothesis states the bi-directional causality between FDI and total factor productivity. Although results differ from among countries and data level of aggregation implications may be useful for policymakers in case of providing foreign capital attracting policy.

Keywords: endogeneity, foreign direct investment, multi-equation models, total factor productivity

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653 Gender Features of Left Ventricular Myocardial Remodeling and the Development of Chronic Heart Failure in Patients with Postinfarction Cardiosclerosis

Authors: G. Dadashova, A. Bakhshaliyev

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Aim: Determine gender differences in the etiology and clinical outcomes, as well as in the remodeling of the left ventricle (LV) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF), suffering from arterial hypertension (AH) and coronary heart disease (CHD). Material and methods: The study included 112 patients of both sexes; aged 45 to 60 years with postinfarction cardiosclerosis had functional class (FC) heart failure II-IV of NYHA which were examined on the basis of Azerbaijan Scientific Research Institute of Cardiology. The patients were divided into 2 groups: 1st c. 60 males, mean age 54,8 ± 3,3 years, and 2nd gr 52 women, mean age 55,8 ± 3,1 years. To assess cardiac hemodynamic all patients underwent echocardiography (B-M-modes) using ‘Vivid 3’. Thus on the basis of indicators such as the index of the relative thickness of the left ventricle wall and the index of left ventricular mass (LVMI) was identified the architectonic model of the left ventricle. Results: According to our research leading cause of heart failure in women is 50.5% of cases of hypertension, ischemic heart disease 23.7% (with 79.5% of the cases developed in patients with chronic heart failure who did not have a history of myocardial infarction). While in men is the undisputed leader of CHD, forming 78.3% of CHF (80.3% in men with CHF occurred after myocardial infarction). According to our research in women more often than men CHF develops a type of diastolic dysfunction (DD, and left ventricular ejection fraction remained unchanged. Since DD occurs in men at 65,8% vs. 76,4% of women when p < 0,05. In the group of women was more common prognostic neblagopryatnye remodeling - eccentric hypertrophy of the left ventricle: 68% vs. 54.5% among men (p < 0,05), concentric left ventricular hypertrophy: 21% in women vs 19,1% (p > 0,05 ). Conclusions: Patients with heart failure are a number of gender-specific: the prevalence of hypertension in women, and coronary heart disease in men. While in women with heart failure often recorded diastolic dysfunction and characterized by the development of prognostically unfavorable remodeling types: eccentric and concentric LV hypertrophy.

Keywords: chronic heart failure, arterial hypertension, remodeling, diastolic dysfunction, men, women, ischemic heart disease

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652 The Psychology of Virtual Relationships Provides Solutions to the Challenges of Online Learning: A Pragmatic Review and Case Study from the University of Birmingham, UK

Authors: Catherine Mangan, Beth Anderson

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There has been a significant drive to use online or hybrid learning in Higher Education (HE) over recent years. HEs with a virtual presence offer their communities a range of benefits, including the potential for greater inclusivity, diversity, and collaboration; more flexible learning packages; and more engaging, dynamic content. Institutions can also experience significant challenges when seeking to extend learning spaces in this way, as can learners themselves. For example, staff members’ and learners’ digital literacy varies (as do their perceptions of technologies in use), and there can be confusion about optimal approaches to implementation. Furthermore, the speed with which HE institutions have needed to shift to fully online or hybrid models, owing to the COVID19 pandemic, has highlighted the significant barriers to successful implementation. HE environments have been shown to predict a range of organisational, academic, and experiential outcomes, both positive and negative. Much research has focused on the social aspect of virtual platforms, as well as the nature and effectiveness of the technologies themselves. There remains, however, a relative paucity of synthesised knowledge on the psychology of learners’ relationships with their institutions; specifically, how individual difference and interpersonal factors predict students’ ability and willingness to engage with novel virtual learning spaces. Accordingly, extending learning spaces remains challenging for institutions, and wholly remote courses, in particular, can experience high attrition rates. Focusing on the last five years, this pragmatic review summarises evidence from the psychological and pedagogical literature. In particular, the review highlights the importance of addressing the psychological and relational complexities of students’ shift from offline to online engagement. In doing so, it identifies considerations for HE institutions looking to deliver in this way.

Keywords: higher education, individual differences, interpersonal relationships, online learning, virtual environment

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651 Effects of Changes in LULC on Hydrological Response in Upper Indus Basin

Authors: Ahmad Ammar, Umar Khan Khattak, Muhammad Majid

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Empirically based lumped hydrologic models have an extensive track record of use for various watershed managements and flood related studies. This study focuses on the impacts of LULC change for 10 year period on the discharge in watershed using lumped model HEC-HMS. The Indus above Tarbela region acts as a source of the main flood events in the middle and lower portions of Indus because of the amount of rainfall and topographic setting of the region. The discharge pattern of the region is influenced by the LULC associated with it. In this study the Landsat TM images were used to do LULC analysis of the watershed. Satellite daily precipitation TRMM data was used as input rainfall. The input variables for model building in HEC-HMS were then calculated based on the GIS data collected and pre-processed in HEC-GeoHMS. SCS-CN was used as transform model, SCS unit hydrograph method was used as loss model and Muskingum was used as routing model. For discharge simulation years 2000 and 2010 were taken. HEC-HMS was calibrated for the year 2000 and then validated for 2010.The performance of the model was assessed through calibration and validation process and resulted R2=0.92 during calibration and validation. Relative Bias for the years 2000 was -9% and for2010 was -14%. The result shows that in 10 years the impact of LULC change on discharge has been negligible in the study area overall. One reason is that, the proportion of built-up area in the watershed, which is the main causative factor of change in discharge, is less than 1% of the total area. However, locally, the impact of development was found significant in built up area of Mansehra city. The analysis was done on Mansehra city sub-watershed with an area of about 16 km2 and has more than 13% built up area in 2010. The results showed that with an increase of 40% built-up area in the city from 2000 to 2010 the discharge values increased about 33 percent, indicating the impact of LULC change on discharge value.

Keywords: LULC change, HEC-HMS, Indus Above Tarbela, SCS-CN

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650 Phylogenetic Relationships between the Whole Sets of Individual Flow Sorted U, M, S and C Chromosomes of Aegilops and Wheat as Revealed by COS Markers

Authors: András Farkas, István Molnár, Jan Vrána, Veronika Burešová, Petr Cápal, András Cseh, Márta Molnár-Láng, Jaroslav Doležel

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Species of Aegilops played a central role in the evolution of wheat and are sources of traits related to yield quality and tolerance against biotic and abiotic stresses. These wild genes and alleles are desirable to use in crop improvement programs via introgressive hybridization. However, the success of chromosome mediated gene transfer to wheat are hampered by the pour knowledge on the genome structure of Aegilops relative to wheat and by the low number of cost-effective molecular markers specific for Aegilops chromosomes. The COS markers specific for genes conserved throughout evolution in both sequence and copy number between Triticeae/Aegilops taxa and define orthologous regions, thus enabling the comparison of regions on the chromosomes of related species. The present study compared individual chromosomes of Aegilops umbellulata (UU), Ae. comosa (MM), Ae. speltoides (SS) and Ae. caudata (CC) purified by flourescent labelling with oligonucleotid SSR repeats and biparametric flow cytometry with wheat by identifying orthologous chromosomal regions by COS markers. The linear order of bin-mapped COS markers along the wheat D chromosomes was identified by the use of chromosome-specific sequence data and virtual gene order. Syntenic regions of wheat identifying genome rearrangements differentiating the U, M, S or C genomes from the D genome of wheat were detected. The conserved orthologous set markers assigned to Aegilops chromosomes promise to accelerate gene introgression by facilitating the identification of alien chromatin. The syntenic relationships between the Aegilops species and wheat will facilitate the targeted development of new markers specific for U, M, S and C genomic regions and will contribute to the understanding of molecular processes related to the evolution of Aegilops.

Keywords: Aegilops, cos-markers, flow-sorting, wheat

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649 Micropropagation and in vitro Conservation via Slow Growth Techniques of Prunus webbii (Spach) Vierh: An Endangered Plant Species in Albania

Authors: Valbona Sota, Efigjeni Kongjika

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Wild almond is a woody species, which is difficult to propagate either generatively by seed or by vegetative methods (grafting or cuttings) and also considered as Endangered (EN) in Albania based on IUCN criteria. As a wild relative of cultivated fruit trees, this species represents a source of genetic variability and can be very important in breeding programs and cultivation. For this reason, it would be of interest to use an effective method of in vitro mid-term conservation, which involves strategies to slow plant growth through physicochemical alterations of in vitro growth conditions. Multiplication of wild almond was carried out using zygotic embryos, as primary explants, with the purpose to develop a successful propagation protocol. Results showed that zygotic embryos can proliferate through direct or indirect organogenesis. During subculture, stage was obtained a great number of new plantlets identical to mother plants derived from the zygotic embryos. All in vitro plantlets obtained from subcultures underwent in vitro conservation by minimal growth in low temperature (4ºC) and darkness. The efficiency of this technique was evaluated for 3, 6, and 10 months of conservation period. Maintenance in these conditions reduced micro cuttings growth. Survival and regeneration rates for each period were evaluated and resulted that the maximal time of conservation without subculture on 4ºC was 10 months, but survival and regeneration rates were significantly reduced, specifically 15.6% and 7.6%. An optimal period of conservation in these conditions can be considered the 5-6 months storage, which can lead to 60-50% of survival and regeneration rates. This protocol may be beneficial for mass propagation, mid-term conservation, and for genetic manipulation of wild almond.

Keywords: micropropagation, minimal growth, storage, wild almond

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648 The LNG Paradox: The Role of Gas in the Energy Transition

Authors: Ira Joseph

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The LNG paradox addresses the issue of how the most expensive form of gas supply, which is LNG, will grow in an end user market where demand is most competitive, which is power generation. In this case, LNG demand growth is under siege from two entirely different directions. At one end is price; it will be extremely difficult for gas to replace coal in Asia due to the low price of coal and the age of the generation plants. Asia's coal fleet, on average, is less than two decades old and will need significant financial incentives to retire before its state lifespan. While gas would cut emissions in half relative to coal, it would also more than double the price of the fuel source for power generation, which puts it in a precarious position. In most countries in Asia other than China, this cost increase, particularly from imports, is simply not realistic when it is also necessary to focus on economic growth and social welfare. On the other end, renewables are growing at an exponential rate for three reasons. One is that prices are dropping. Two is that policy incentives are driving deployment, and three is that China is forcing renewables infrastructure into the market to take a political seat at the global energy table with Saudi Arabia, the US, and Russia. Plus, more renewables will lower import growth of oil and gas in China, if not end it altogether. Renewables are the predator at the gate of gas demand in power generation and in every year that passes, renewables cut into demand growth projections for gas; in particular, the type of gas that is most expensive, which is LNG. Gas does have a role in the future, particularly within a domestic market. Once it crosses borders in the form of LNG or even pipeline gas, it quickly becomes a premium fuel and must be marketed and used this way. Our research shows that gas will be able to compete with batteries as an intermittency and storage tool and does offer a method to harmonize with renewables as part of the energy transition. As a baseload fuel, however, the role of gas, particularly, will be limited by cost once it needs to cross a border. Gas converted into blue or green hydrogen or ammonia is also an option for storage depending on the location. While this role is much reduced from the primary baseload role that gas once aspired to land, it still offers a credible option for decades to come.

Keywords: natural gas, LNG, demand, price, intermittency, storage, renewables

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647 Comparative Assessment of Geocell and Geogrid Reinforcement for Flexible Pavement: Numerical Parametric Study

Authors: Anjana R. Menon, Anjana Bhasi

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Development of highways and railways play crucial role in a nation’s economic growth. While rigid concrete pavements are durable with high load bearing characteristics, growing economies mostly rely on flexible pavements which are easier in construction and more economical. The strength of flexible pavement is based on the strength of subgrade and load distribution characteristics of intermediate granular layers. In this scenario, to simultaneously meet economy and strength criteria, it is imperative to strengthen and stabilize the load transferring layers, namely subbase and base. Geosynthetic reinforcement in planar and cellular forms have been proven effective in improving soil stiffness and providing a stable load transfer platform. Studies have proven the relative superiority of cellular form-geocells over planar geosynthetic forms like geogrid, owing to the additional confinement of infill material and pocket effect arising from vertical deformation. Hence, the present study investigates the efficiency of geocells over single/multiple layer geogrid reinforcements by a series of three-dimensional model analyses of a flexible pavement section under a standard repetitive wheel load. The stress transfer mechanism and deformation profiles under various reinforcement configurations are also studied. Geocell reinforcement is observed to take up a higher proportion of stress caused by the traffic loads compared to single and double-layer geogrid reinforcements. The efficiency of single geogrid reinforcement reduces with an increase in embedment depth. The contribution of lower geogrid is insignificant in the case of the double-geogrid reinforced system.

Keywords: Geocell, Geogrid, Flexible Pavement, Repetitive Wheel Load, Numerical Analysis

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646 Evaluation of the Impact of Community Based Disaster Risk Management Applied In Landslide Prone Area; Reference to Badulla District

Authors: S. B. D. Samarasinghe, Malini Herath

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Participatory planning is a very important process for decision making and choosing the best alternative options for community welfare, development of the society and its interactions among community and professionals. People’s involvement is considered as the key guidance in participatory planning. Presently, Participatory planning is being used in many fields. It's not only limited to planning but also to disaster management, poverty, housing, etc. In the past, Disaster management practice was a top-down approach, but it raised many issues as it was converted to a bottom-up approach. There are several approaches that can aid disaster management. Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) is a very successful participatory approach to risk management that is often successfully applied by other disaster-prone countries. In the local context, CBDRM has been applied to prevent Diseases as well as to prevent disasters such as landslides, tsunamis and floods. From three years before, Sri Lanka has initiated the CBDRM approach to minimize landslide vulnerability. Hence, this study mainly focuses on the impact of CBDRM approaches on landslide hazards. Also to identify their successes and failures from both implementing parties and community. This research is carried out based on a qualitative method combined with a descriptive research approach. A successful framework was prepared via a literature review. Case studies were selected considering landslide CBDRM programs which were implemented by Disaster Management Center and National Building Research Organization in Badulla. Their processes were evaluated. Data collection is done through interviews and informal discussions. Then their ideas were quantified by using the Relative Effectiveness index. The resulting numerical value was used to rank the program effectiveness and their success, failures and impacting factors. Results show that there are several failures among implementing parties and the community. Overcoming those factors can make way for better conduction of future CBDRM programs.

Keywords: community-based disaster risk management, disaster management, preparedness, landslide

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645 Delivery of Ginseng Extract Containing Phytosome Loaded Microsphere System: A Preclinical Approach for Treatment of Neuropathic Pain in Rodent Model

Authors: Nitin Kumar

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Purpose: The current research work focuses mainly on evolving a delivery system for ginseng extract (GE), which in turn will ameliorate the neuroprotective potential by means of enhancing the ginsenoside (Rb1) bio-availability (BA). For more noteworthy enhancement in oral bioavailability (OBA) along with pharmacological properties, the drug carriers’ performance can be strengthened by utilizing phytosomes-loaded microspheres (PM) delivery system. Methods: For preparing the disparate phytosome complexes (F1, F2, and F3), an aqueous extract of ginseng roots (GR) along with phospholipids were reacted in disparate ratio. Considering the outcomes, F3 formulation (spray-dried) was chosen for preparing the phytosomes powder (PP), PM, and extract microspheres (EM). PM was made by means of loading of F3 into Gum Arabic (GA) in addition to maltodextrin polymer mixture, whereas EM was prepared by means of the addition of extract directly into the same polymer mixture. For investigating the neuroprotective effect (NPE) in addition to their pharmacokinetic (PK) properties, PP, PM, and EM formulations were assessed. Results: F3 formulation gave enhanced entrapment efficiency (EE) (i.e., 50.61%) along with good homogeneity of spherical shaped particle size (PS) (42.58 ± 1.4 nm) with least polydispersity index (PDI) (i.e., 0.193 ± 0.01). The sustained release (up to 24 h) of ginsenoside Rb1 (GRb1) is revealed by the dissolution study of PM. A significantly (p < 0.05) greater anti-oxidant (AO) potential of PM can well be perceived as of the diminution in the lipid peroxidase level in addition to the rise in the glutathione superoxide dismutase (SOD) in addition to catalase levels. It also showed a greater neuroprotective potential exhibiting significant (p < 0.05) augmentation in the nociceptive threshold together with the diminution in damage to nerves. A noteworthy enhancement in the relative BA (157.94%) of GRb1 through the PM formulation can well be seen in the PK studies. Conclusion: It is exhibited that the PM system is an optimistic and feasible strategy to enhance the delivery of GE for the effectual treatment of neuropathic pain.

Keywords: ginseng, neuropathic, phytosome, pain

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644 Expression Level of Dehydration-Responsive Element Binding/DREB Gene of Some Local Corn Cultivars from Kisar Island-Maluku Indonesia Using Quantitative Real-Time PCR

Authors: Hermalina Sinay, Estri L. Arumingtyas

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The research objective was to determine the expression level of dehydration responsive element binding/DREB gene of local corn cultivars from Kisar Island Maluku. The study design was a randomized block design with single factor consist of six local corn cultivars obtained from farmers in Kisar Island and one reference varieties wich has been released by the government as a drought-tolerant varieties and obtained from Cereal Crops Research Institute (ICERI) Maros South Sulawesi. Leaf samples were taken is the second leaf after the flag leaf at the 65 days after planting. Isolation of total RNA from leaf samples was carried out according to the protocols of the R & A-BlueTM Total RNA Extraction Kit and was used as a template for cDNA synthesis. The making of cDNA from total RNA was carried out according to the protocol of One-Step Reverse Transcriptase PCR Premix Kit. Real Time-PCR was performed on cDNA from reverse transcription followed the procedures of Real MODTM Green Real-Time PCR Master Mix Kit. Data obtained from the real time-PCR results were analyzed using relative quantification method based on the critical point / Cycle Threshold (CP / CT). The results of gene expression analysis of DREB gene showed that the expression level of the gene was highest obtained at Deep Yellow local corn cultivar, and the lowest one was obtained at the Rubby Brown Cob cultivar. It can be concluded that the expression level of DREB gene of Deep Yellow local corn cultivar was highest than other local corn cultivars and Srikandi variety as a reference variety.

Keywords: expression, level, DREB gene, local corn cultivars, Kisar Island, Maluku

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643 Creation of Computerized Benchmarks to Facilitate Preparedness for Biological Events

Authors: B. Adini, M. Oren

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Introduction: Communicable diseases and pandemics pose a growing threat to the well-being of the global population. A vital component of protecting the public health is the creation and sustenance of a continuous preparedness for such hazards. A joint Israeli-German task force was deployed in order to develop an advanced tool for self-evaluation of emergency preparedness for variable types of biological threats. Methods: Based on a comprehensive literature review and interviews with leading content experts, an evaluation tool was developed based on quantitative and qualitative parameters and indicators. A modified Delphi process was used to achieve consensus among over 225 experts from both Germany and Israel concerning items to be included in the evaluation tool. Validity and applicability of the tool for medical institutions was examined in a series of simulation and field exercises. Results: Over 115 German and Israeli experts reviewed and examined the proposed parameters as part of the modified Delphi cycles. A consensus of over 75% of experts was attained for 183 out of 188 items. The relative importance of each parameter was rated as part of the Delphi process, in order to define its impact on the overall emergency preparedness. The parameters were integrated in computerized web-based software that enables to calculate scores of emergency preparedness for biological events. Conclusions: The parameters developed in the joint German-Israeli project serve as benchmarks that delineate actions to be implemented in order to create and maintain an ongoing preparedness for biological events. The computerized evaluation tool enables to continuously monitor the level of readiness and thus strengths and gaps can be identified and corrected appropriately. Adoption of such a tool is recommended as an integral component of quality assurance of public health and safety.

Keywords: biological events, emergency preparedness, bioterrorism, natural biological events

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642 Urban Security and Social Sustainability in Cities of Developing Countries

Authors: Taimaz Larimian, Negin Sadeghi

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Very little is known about the impacts of urban security on the level of social sustainability within the cities of developing countries. Urban security is still struggling to find its position in the social sustainability agenda, despite the significant role of safety and security on different aspects of peoples’ lives. This paper argues that urban safety and security should be better integrated within the social sustainability framework. With this aim, this study investigates the hypothesized relationship between social sustainability and Crime Prevention through Environmental Design (CPTED) approach at the neighborhood scale. This study proposes a model of key influential dimensions of CPTED analyzed into localized factors and sub-factors. These factors are then prioritized using pairwise comparison logic and fuzzy group Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in order to determine the relative importance of each factor on achieving social sustainability. The proposed model then investigates social sustainability in six case study neighborhoods of Isfahan city based on residents’ perceptions of safety within their neighborhood. Mixed method of data collection is used by using a self-administered questionnaire to explore the residents’ perceptions of social sustainability in their area of residency followed by an on-site observation to measure the CPTED construct. In all, 150 respondents from selected neighborhoods were involved in this research. The model indicates that CPTED approach has a significant direct influence on increasing social sustainability in neighborhood scale. According to the findings, among different dimensions of CPTED, ‘activity support’ and ‘image/ management’ have the most influence on people’s feeling of safety within studied areas. This model represents a useful designing tool in achieving urban safety and security during the development of more socially sustainable and user-friendly urban areas.

Keywords: crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED), developing countries, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), social sustainability

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641 Improved Operating Strategies for the Optimization of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell System Performance

Authors: Guillaume Soubeyran, Fabrice Micoud, Benoit Morin, Jean-Philippe Poirot-Crouvezier, Magali Reytier

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Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) technology is considered as a solution for the reduction of CO2 emissions. However, this technology still meets several challenges for high-scale industrialization. In this context, the increase of durability remains a critical aspect for competitiveness of this technology. Fortunately, performance degradations in nominal operating conditions is partially reversible, meaning that if specific conditions are applied, a partial recovery of fuel cell performance can be achieved, while irreversible degradations can only be mitigated. Thus, it is worth studying the optimal conditions to rejuvenate these reversible degradations and assessing the long-term impact of such procedures on the performance of the cell. Reversible degradations consist mainly of anode Pt active sites poisoning by carbon monoxide at the anode, heterogeneities in water management during use, and oxidation/deactivation of Pt active sites at the cathode. The latter is identified as a major source of reversible performance loss caused by the presence oxygen, high temperature and high cathode potential that favor platinum oxidation, especially in high efficiency operating points. Hence, we studied here a recovery procedure aiming at reducing the platinum oxides by decreasing cathode potential during operation. Indeed, the application of short air starvation phase leads to a drop of cathode potential. Cell performances are temporarily increased afterwards. Nevertheless, local temperature and current heterogeneities within the cells are favored and shall be minimized. The consumption of fuel during the recovery phase shall also be considered to evaluate the global efficiency. Consequently, the purpose of this work is to find an optimal compromise between the recovery of reversible degradations by air starvation, the increase of global cell efficiency and the mitigation of irreversible degradations effects. Different operating parameters have first been studied such as cell voltage, temperature and humidity in single cell set-up. Considering the global PEMFC system efficiency, tests showed that reducing duration of recovery phase and reducing cell voltage was the key to ensure an efficient recovery. Recovery phase frequency was a major factor as well. A specific method was established to find the optimal frequency depending on the duration and voltage of the recovery phase. Then, long-term degradations have also been studied by applying FC-DLC cycles based on NEDC cycles on a 4-cell short stack by alternating test sequences with and without recovery phases. Depending on recovery phase timing, cell efficiency during the cycle was increased up to 2% thanks to a mean voltage increase of 10 mV during test sequences with recovery phases. However, cyclic voltammetry tests results suggest that the implementation of recovery phases causes an acceleration of the decrease of platinum active areas that could be due to the high potential variations applied to the cathode electrode during operation.

Keywords: durability, PEMFC, recovery procedure, reversible degradation

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640 Three-Dimensional Computer Graphical Demonstration of Calcified Tissue and Its Clinical Significance

Authors: Itsuo Yokoyama, Rikako Kikuti, Miti Sekikawa, Tosinori Asai, Sarai Tsuyoshi

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Introduction: Vascular access for hemodialysis therapy is often difficult, even for experienced medical personnel. Ultrasound guided needle placement have been performed occasionally but is not always helpful in certain cases with complicated vascular anatomy. Obtaining precise anatomical knowledge of the vascular structure is important to prevent access-related complications. With augmented reality (AR) device such as AR glasses, the virtual vascular structure is shown superimposed on the actual patient vessels, thus enabling the operator to maneuver catheter placement easily with free both hands. We herein report our method of AR guided vascular access method in dialysis treatment Methods: Three dimensional (3D) object of the arm with arteriovenous fistula is computer graphically created with 3D software from the data obtained by computer tomography, ultrasound echogram, and image scanner. The 3D vascular object thus created is viewed on the screen of the AR digital display device (such as AR glass or iPad). The picture of the vascular anatomical structure becomes visible, which is superimposed over the real patient’s arm, thereby the needle insertion be performed under the guidance of AR visualization with ease. By this method, technical difficulty in catheter placement for dialysis can be lessened and performed safely. Considerations: Virtual reality technology has been applied in various fields and medical use is not an exception. Yet AR devices have not been widely used among medical professions. Visualization of the virtual vascular object can be achieved by creation of accurate three dimensional object with the help of computer graphical technique. Although our experience is limited, this method is applicable with relative easiness and our accumulating evidence has suggested that our method of vascular access with the use of AR can be promising.

Keywords: abdominal-aorta, calcification, extraskeletal, dialysis, computer graphics, 3DCG, CT, calcium, phosphorus

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639 Cattle Commodification and Pastoral Identity in the Horn of Africa

Authors: Chanda Burrage

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The past half-century has revealed massive structural, geographic, and technological changes in livestock production. The move, for instance, toward expanding export markets, massive feedlots for the fattening of cattle and improved veterinary standards is a global trend in food animal agribusiness and is apparent in both developed and developing regions. In the Horn of Africa, various breeds of cattle that previously were not considered in economic terms are now treated as commodities and branded for numerous export markets. Formerly a culturally significant exchange good within the subsistence pastoral livelihoods, cattle are now identified as a key economic resource and fully connected to global markets. This study incorporates an ethnographic-commodity chain approach to examine critical issues surrounding regional trade, harmonization of standards, import & export legislation, the role of the private sector, and infrastructure development relative to the Boran cattle breed and Borana pastoralists. The specific sites assessed include the cattle production region of Moyale in southern Ethiopia, feedlots and export abattoirs in Adama, Ethiopia, and quarantines and ports in Djibouti and Somaliland. The goal is to evaluate innovation and modernization outcomes and narratives around Boran cattle production and development and the associate livelihood changes for cattle producers in southern Ethiopia and how the smallholder pastoralists are coping with the multitude of global changes. Inevitably, the inherent pressures related to such changes alter, and may even promote the reconfiguration of identity, while inadvertently contribute to the capacity of smallholder cattle producers to act independently and make their own free choices in sustainability. It is through these processes that local Borana groups may appropriate, bypass, or put to new use available and innovative material resources.

Keywords: globalization, global change, commodification, pastoralism, vulnerability, adaptive capacity

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638 The Temperature Degradation Process of Siloxane Polymeric Coatings

Authors: Andrzej Szewczak

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Study of the effect of high temperatures on polymer coatings represents an important field of research of their properties. Polymers, as materials with numerous features (chemical resistance, ease of processing and recycling, corrosion resistance, low density and weight) are currently the most widely used modern building materials, among others in the resin concrete, plastic parts, and hydrophobic coatings. Unfortunately, the polymers have also disadvantages, one of which decides about their usage - low resistance to high temperatures and brittleness. This applies in particular thin and flexible polymeric coatings applied to other materials, such a steel and concrete, which degrade under varying thermal conditions. Research about improvement of this state includes methods of modification of the polymer composition, structure, conditioning conditions, and the polymerization reaction. At present, ways are sought to reflect the actual environmental conditions, in which the coating will be operating after it has been applied to other material. These studies are difficult because of the need for adopting a proper model of the polymer operation and the determination of phenomena occurring at the time of temperature fluctuations. For this reason, alternative methods are being developed, taking into account the rapid modeling and the simulation of the actual operating conditions of polymeric coating’s materials in real conditions. The nature of a duration is typical for the temperature influence in the environment. Studies typically involve the measurement of variation one or more physical and mechanical properties of such coating in time. Based on these results it is possible to determine the effects of temperature loading and develop methods affecting in the improvement of coatings’ properties. This paper contains a description of the stability studies of silicone coatings deposited on the surface of a ceramic brick. The brick’s surface was hydrophobized by two types of inorganic polymers: nano-polymer preparation based on dialkyl siloxanes (Series 1 - 5) and an aqueous solution of the silicon (series 6 - 10). In order to enhance the stability of the film formed on the brick’s surface and immunize it to variable temperature and humidity loading, the nano silica was added to the polymer. The right combination of the polymer liquid phase and the solid phase of nano silica was obtained by disintegration of the mixture by the sonification. The changes of viscosity and surface tension of polymers were defined, which are the basic rheological parameters affecting the state and the durability of the polymer coating. The coatings created on the brick’s surfaces were then subjected to a temperature loading of 100° C and moisture by total immersion in water, in order to determine any water absorption changes caused by damages and the degradation of the polymer film. The effect of moisture and temperature was determined by measurement (at specified number of cycles) of changes in the surface hardness (using a Vickers’ method) and the absorption of individual samples. As a result, on the basis of the obtained results, the degradation process of polymer coatings related to their durability changes in time was determined.

Keywords: silicones, siloxanes, surface hardness, temperature, water absorption

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637 An Investigation into the Decision-Making Process of Choosing Long-Term Care Services in Taiwan

Authors: Yu-Ching Liu

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Background: Family numbers usually take responsibility for taking care of their elderly relatives, especially parents. Caring for a patient with chronic diseases is a stressful experience, which makes carers suffer physical and mental health stress, difficulties maintaining family relationships and issues in participating in the labor market, which may lower their quality of life (QoL). The issue of providing care to relatives with chronic illness has been widely explored in Taiwan, but most studies focus on the need for full-time caregivers. Objective: The main goal of this study was to examine the topic of working carers involved in the decision-making process of LTC services and to explore what affects working carers considering when they choose the care services for their disabled, elderly relatives. Method: A total of 7 working caregivers were enrolled in this study. A face-to-face and semi-structured in-depth qualitative interview study were conducted to explore the caregivers' perspectives. Results: Working carers have a positive experience of using LTC service because it allows them to kill two birds with one stone, continue employment, and care for an elderly disabled relative. However, working carers have still been struggling to find friendly community-based LTC services. There were no longer available community services that could be used with the illness condition of patients getting worse. As such, patients have to be cared for at home, which might increase the caregiver burden of carers. Conclusion: Working family caregivers suffer from heavy physical and psychological burdens as they not only have to maintain their employment but care for elderly disabled relatives; however, the current support provided is insufficient. The design of services should consider working carers' employment situation and need rather than the only caring situation of patients at home.

Keywords: family caregiver, Long-term care, work-life balance, decision-making

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636 A Data-Driven Compartmental Model for Dengue Forecasting and Covariate Inference

Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

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Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

Procedia PDF Downloads 46