Search results for: probability distribution

Authors: Thong Lantharthong, Nattchote Rugthaicharoencheep, Att Phayomhom

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This paper presents the electrical effect of two neighboring distribution substation during the construction phase. The size of auxiliary grounding grid have an effect on entire grounding system. The bigger the size of auxiliary grounding grid, the lower the GPR and maximum touch voltage, with the exception that when the two grids are unconnected, i.e. the bigger the size of auxiliary grounding grid, the higher the maximum step voltage. The results in this paper could be served as design guideline of grounding system, and perhaps remedy of some troublesome grounding grids in power distribution’s system. Modeling and simulation is carried out on the Current Distribution Electromagnetic interference Grounding and Soil structure (CDEGS) program. The simulation results exhibit the design and analysis of power system grounding and perhaps could be set as a standard in grounding system design and modification in distribution substations.

Keywords: grounding system, touch voltage, step voltage, safety criteria

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Authors: Abdenour Bourabaa, Malika Fekih, Mohamed Saighi

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A numerical investigation of the fin efficiency and temperature distribution of an annular fin under dehumidification has been presented in this paper. The non-homogeneous second order differential equation that describes the temperature distribution from the fin base to the fin tip has been solved using the central finite difference method. The effects of variations in parameters including relative humidity, air temperature, air face velocity on temperature distribution and fin efficiency are investigated and compared with those under fully dry fin conditions. Also, the effect of fin pitch on the dimensionless temperature has been studied.

Keywords: annular fin, dehumidification, fin efficiency, heat and mass transfer, wet fin

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Authors: Kiran Nair, Jincy George, Suhaib Anagreh

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Artificial intelligence (AI) in a marketing context is a form of a deterministic tool designed to optimize and enhance marketing tasks, research tools, and techniques. It is on the verge of transforming marketing roles and revolutionize the entire industry. This paper aims to explore the current dissemination of the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the marketing mix, reviewing the scope and application of AI in various aspects of sales and distribution management. The paper also aims at identifying the areas of the strong impact of AI in factors of sales and distribution management such as distribution channel, purchase automation, customer service, merchandising automation, and shopping experiences. This is a qualitative research paper that aims to examine the impact of AI on sales and distribution management of 30 multinational brands in six different industries, namely: airline; automobile; banking and insurance; education; information technology; retail and telecom. Primary data is collected by means of interviews and questionnaires from a sample of 100 marketing managers that have been selected using convenient sampling method. The data is then analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis. The study reveals that AI applications are extensively used in sales and distribution management, with a strong impact on various factors such as identifying new distribution channels, automation in merchandising, customer service, and purchase automation as well as sales processes. International brands have already integrated AI extensively in their day-to-day operations for better efficiency and improved market share while others are investing heavily in new AI applications for gaining competitive advantage.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, sales and distribution, marketing mix, distribution channel, customer service

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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From a theoretical point of view, the relationship between the risk associated with an investment and the expected value are directly proportional, in the sense that the market allows a greater result to those who are willing to take a greater risk. However, empirical evidence proves that this relationship is distorted in the minds of investors and is perceived exactly the opposite. To deepen and understand the discrepancy between the actual actions of the investor and the theoretical predictions, this paper analyzes the essential parameters used for the valuation of financial assets with greater attention to two elements: probability and the passage of time. Although these may seem at first glance to be two distinct elements, they are closely related. In particular, the error in the theoretical description of the relationship between risk and return lies in the failure to consider the impatience that is generated in the decision-maker when events that have not yet happened occur in the decision-making context. In this context, probability loses its objective meaning and in relation to the psychological aspects of the investor, it can only be understood as the degree of confidence that the investor has in the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. Moreover, the concept of objective probability does not consider the inter-temporality that characterizes financial activities and does not consider the condition of limited cognitive capacity of the decision maker. Cognitive psychology has made it possible to understand that the mind acts with a compromise between quality and effort when faced with very complex choices. To evaluate an event that has not yet happened, it is necessary to imagine that it happens in your head. This projection into the future requires a cognitive effort and is what differentiates choices under conditions of risk and choices under conditions of uncertainty. In fact, since the receipt of the outcome in choices under risk conditions is imminent, the mechanism of self-projection into the future is not necessary to imagine the consequence of the choice and the decision makers dwell on the objective analysis of possibilities. Financial activities, on the other hand, develop over time and the objective probability is too static to consider the anticipatory emotions that the self-projection mechanism generates in the investor. Assuming that uncertainty is inherent in valuations of events that have not yet occurred, the focus must shift from risk management to uncertainty management. Only in this way the intertemporal dimension of the decision-making environment and the haste generated by the financial market can be cautioned and considered. The work considers an extension of the prospectus theory with the temporal component with the aim of providing a description of the attitude towards risk with respect to the passage of time.

Keywords: impatience, risk aversion, subjective probability, uncertainty

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Authors: Rahul Kumar

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Background: Under-FiveMortality Rate(U5MR)ofanationiswidelyacceptedandlong-standing indicators of well-beingofherchildren.They measuredtheprobability of dying before theageoffive(expressedper1000livebirths).TheU5MRisanappropriate indicator of the cumulative exposure totheriskofdeathduringthefirstfiveyearsoflife, and accepted globalindicator ofthehealthandsocioeconomicstatusofagiven population.Itisalsousefulforassessing theimpactofvariousintervention programmes aimed at improving child survival.Under-fivemortalitytrendsconstitutealeadingindicatorofthelevel ofchildhealthandoveralldevelopmentincountries. Objectives: The first aim of our research is to study the level, trends, and Pattern of Under-five mortality using different sources of data. The second objective is to examine the survival pattern of Under-five mortality by different background characteristics. Data Source and Methodology: SRS and NFHS data have been used forobservingthelevelandtrendofUnder-Five mortality rate. Kaplan Meier Estimate has been used to understand the survival Pattern of Under-five mortality. Result: WefindthatallmostallthestatesmadesomeprogressbyreducingU5MRin recent decades.During1992-93highestU5MR(per thousand live birth) was observed in Assam(142)followed by up(141),Odisha(131),MP(130),andBihar(127.5).While the least U5MR(perthousandlive birth)wasobservedinRajasthan(102). The highestU5MR(per thousandlive birth)isobservedinUP(78.1), followed by MP(64.9)and Chhattisgarh(63.7)which are far away from the national level(50). Among them, Uttarakhand(46.7)hadleastU5MR(perthousandlivebirth), followed by Odisha(48.6). TheU5MR(perthousandlivebirth)ofcombinedhighfocusstateis63.7whichisfar away fromthenationallevel(50). Weidentified thatthesurvivalprobability ofunder-fivechildrenfromadolescentmotherislessin comparisontootherchildrenbornby differentagegroupofmothers. thatduringneonatalperiodusually male mortality exceedsthefemale mortality butthisdifferentialreversedinthepostneonatalperiod. Astheirageincreasesand approachingtofiveyears,weidentifiedthatthesurvivalprobability ofbothsexdecreasesbut female’s survival probabilitydecrement is more than male as their ageincreases. The poorer children’s survival probability is minimum. Children using improved toilet facility has more survival probability throughout thefiveyearsthan who uses unimproved. The survival probability of children under five who got Full ANCis more than the survival probability of children under five who doesn’t get any ANC. Conclusions: Improvement of maternal education is an urgent need to improve their health seeking behavior and thus the health of their children. Awareness on reproductive health and environmental sanitation should be strengthened.

Keywords: under-five mortality, survival pattern, ANC, trend

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Authors: Taha Zakaraia Abdel Wahid

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The behavior of the unsteady non-equilibrium distribution function for a dilute gas under the effect of non-linear thermal radiation field is presented. For the best of our knowledge this is done for the first time at all. The distinction and comparisons between the unsteady perturbed and the unsteady equilibrium velocity distribution functions are illustrated. The equilibrium time for the dilute gas is determined for the first time. The non-equilibrium thermodynamic properties of the system (gas+the heated plate) are investigated. The results are applied to the Argon gas, for various values of radiation field intensity. 3D-Graphics illustrating the calculated variables are drawn to predict their behavior. The results are discussed.

Keywords: dilute gas, radiation field, exact solutions, travelling wave method, unsteady BGK model, irreversible thermodynamics, unsteady non-equilibrium distribution functions

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Authors: A. GuhaRay, C. V. S. P. Kiranmayi, S. Rudraraju

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The present study considers the effect of variation of different geotechnical random variables in the design of stone column-foundation systems for assessing the bearing capacity and consolidation settlement of highly compressible soil. The soil and stone column properties, spacing, diameter and arrangement of stone columns are considered as the random variables. Probability of failure (P_f) is computed for a target degree of consolidation and a target safe load by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The study shows that the variation in coefficient of radial consolidation (c_r) and cohesion of soil (c_s) are two most important factors influencing Pf. If the coefficient of variation (COV) of c_r exceeds 20%, P_f exceeds 0.001, which is unsafe following the guidelines of US Army Corps of Engineers. The bearing capacity also exceeds its safe value for COV of c_s > 30%. It is also observed that as the spacing between the stone column increases, the probability of reaching a target degree of consolidation decreases. Accordingly, design guidelines, considering both consolidation and bearing capacity of improved ground, are proposed for different spacing and diameter of stone columns and geotechnical random variables.

Keywords: bearing capacity, consolidation, geotechnical random variables, probability of failure, stone columns

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Authors: Fatemah A. Alqallaf, Debasis Kundu

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The aim of this paper is to introduce a bivariate inverse generalized exponential distribution which has a singular component. The proposed bivariate distribution can be used when the marginals have heavy-tailed distributions, and they have non-monotone hazard functions. Due to the presence of the singular component, it can be used quite effectively when there are ties in the data. Since it has four parameters, it is a very flexible bivariate distribution, and it can be used quite effectively for analyzing various bivariate data sets. Several dependency properties and dependency measures have been obtained. The maximum likelihood estimators cannot be obtained in closed form, and it involves solving a four-dimensional optimization problem. To avoid that, we have proposed to use an EM algorithm, and it involves solving only one non-linear equation at each `E'-step. Hence, the implementation of the proposed EM algorithm is very straight forward in practice. Extensive simulation experiments and the analysis of one data set have been performed. We have observed that the proposed bivariate inverse generalized exponential distribution can be used for modeling dependent competing risks data. One data set has been analyzed to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Block and Basu bivariate distributions, competing risks, EM algorithm, Marshall-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution, maximum likelihood estimators

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Authors: Saba Rahman, Arvind K. Jain, S. D. Bharti, T. K. Datta

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Chimneys are generally tall and slender structures with circular cross-sections, due to which they are highly prone to wind forces. Wind exerts pressure on the wall of the chimneys, which produces unwanted forces. Vortex-induced oscillation is one of such excitations which can lead to the failure of the chimneys. Therefore, vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys is of great concern to researchers and practitioners since many failures of chimneys due to vortex shedding have occurred in the past. As a consequence, extensive research has taken place on the subject over decades. Many laboratory experiments have been performed to verify the theoretical models proposed to predict vortex-induced forces, including aero-elastic effects. Comparatively, very few proto-type measurement data have been recorded to verify the proposed theoretical models. Because of this reason, the theoretical models developed with the help of experimental laboratory data are utilized for analyzing the chimneys for vortex-induced forces. This calls for reliability analysis of the predictions of the responses of the chimneys produced due to vortex shedding phenomena. Although several works of literature exist on the vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys, including code provisions, the reliability analysis of chimneys against failure caused due to vortex shedding is scanty. In the present study, the reliability analysis of chimneys against vortex shedding failure is presented, assuming the uncertainty in vortex shedding phenomena to be significantly more than other uncertainties, and hence, the latter is ignored. The vortex shedding is modeled as a stationary random process and is represented by a power spectral density function (PSDF). It is assumed that the vortex shedding forces are perfectly correlated and act over the top one-third height of the chimney. The PSDF of the tip displacement of the chimney is obtained by performing a frequency domain spectral analysis using a matrix approach. For this purpose, both chimney and random wind forces are discretized over a number of points along with the height of the chimney. The method of analysis duly accounts for the aero-elastic effects. The double barrier threshold crossing level, as proposed by Vanmarcke, is used for determining the probability of crossing different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney. Assuming the annual distribution of the mean wind velocity to be a Gumbel type-I distribution, the fragility curve denoting the variation of the annual probability of threshold crossing against different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney is determined. The reliability estimate is derived from the fragility curve. A 210m tall concrete chimney with a base diameter of 35m, top diameter as 21m, and thickness as 0.3m has been taken as an illustrative example. The terrain condition is assumed to be that corresponding to the city center. The expression for the PSDF of the vortex shedding force is taken to be used by Vickery and Basu. The results of the study show that the threshold crossing reliability of the tip displacement of the chimney is significantly influenced by the assumed structural damping and the Gumbel distribution parameters. Further, the aero-elastic effect influences the reliability estimate to a great extent for small structural damping.

Keywords: chimney, fragility curve, reliability analysis, vortex-induced vibration

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Authors: Önder M. Özdem

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Producing and circulating films of professional standards have become technically easier with the development and widespread use of digital recording and distribution technologies. Additionally, film festivals on common platforms have rapidly increased in numbers and diversity. On the one hand, no-charge applications result in excessive submissions; thus, it complicates the evaluation and selection process. On the other hand, festival’s high submission fees may make the distribution of films with a limited budget very difficult. Inspired by the author’s engagement with the film industry as both a pre-jury member of an international film festival and an applicant to many festivals, this study discusses the causes and consequences of the increasing commercialization of film festivals. The author’s double identity, both as a jury and an applicant, provides a comparative perspective through which one can unfold the different dimensions and dynamics in the film production and distribution processes.

Keywords: commercialization, film distribution, film festivals, film production

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Authors: I. Touaїbia, E. Azzag, O. Narjes

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Power supply networks are growing continuously and their reliability is getting more important than ever. The complexity of the whole network comprises numerous components that can fail and interrupt the power supply for the end user. Underground distribution systems are normally exposed to permanent faults, due to specific construction characteristics. In these systems, visual inspection cannot be performed. In order to enhance service restoration, accurate fault location techniques must be applied. This paper describes the different faults that affect the underground distribution system of SONELGAZ (National Society of Electricity and Gas of Algeria), and cable fault location procedure with impulse reflection method (TDR), based in the analyses of the cable response of the electromagnetic impulse, allows cable fault prelocation. The results are obtained from real test in the underground distribution feeder from electrical network of energy distribution company of Souk-Ahras, in order to know the influence of cable characteristics in the types and frequency of faults.

Keywords: distribution networks, fault location, TDR, underground cable

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Authors: Syed Ahzam Tariq, Atharva Modi

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This paper presents a probabilistic analysis of the safety of water tube boilers using fault tree analysis (FTA). A fault tree has been constructed by considering all possible areas where a malfunction could lead to a boiler accident. Boiler accidents are relatively rare, causing a scarcity of data. The fuzzy approach is employed to perform a quantitative analysis, wherein theories of fuzzy logic are employed in conjunction with expert elicitation to calculate failure probabilities. The Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) provides a scientific and contingent method to forecast and prevent accidents.

Keywords: fault tree analysis water tube boiler, fuzzy probability score, failure probability

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Authors: Abir Touati, Syed Jawad Hussain, Farid Touati, Ammar Bouallegue

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Although there has been a growing interest in the hybrid free-space optical link and radio frequency FSO/RF communication system, the current literature is limited to results obtained in moderate or cold environment. In this paper, using a soft switching approach, we investigate the effect of weather inhomogeneities on the strength of turbulence hence the channel refractive index under Qatar harsh environment and their influence on the hybrid FSO/RF availability. In this approach, either FSO/RF or simultaneous or none of them can be active. Based on soft switching approach and a finite state Markov Chain (FSMC) process, we model the channel fading for the two links and derive a mathematical expression for the outage probability of the hybrid system. Then, we evaluate the behavior of the hybrid FSO/RF under hazy and harsh weather. Results show that the FSO/RF soft switching renders the system outage probability less than that of each link individually. A soft switching algorithm is being implemented on FPGAs using Raptor code interfaced to the two terminals of a 1Gbps/100 Mbps FSO/RF hybrid system, the first being implemented in the region. Experimental results are compared to the above simulation results.

Keywords: atmospheric turbulence, haze, hybrid FSO/RF, outage probability, refractive index

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Authors: Ashkan Golgoon, Arash Yavari

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In this paper, we present some analytical solutions for the stress fields of nonlinear anisotropic solids with line and point defects distributions. In particular, we determine the induced stress fields of a parallel cylindrically-symmetric distribution of screw dislocations in infinite orthotropic and monoclinic media as well as a cylindrically-symmetric distribution of parallel wedge disclinations in an infinite orthotropic medium. For a given distribution of edge dislocations, the material manifold is constructed using Cartan's moving frames and the stress field is obtained assuming that the medium is orthotropic. Also, we consider a spherically-symmetric distribution of point defects in a transversely isotropic spherical ball. We show that for an arbitrary incompressible transversely isotropic ball with the radial material preferred direction, a uniform point defect distribution results in a uniform hydrostatic stress field inside the spherical region the distribution is supported in. Finally, we find the stresses induced by a discombination in an orthotropic medium.

Keywords: defects, disclinations, dislocations, monoclinic solids, nonlinear elasticity, orthotropic solids, transversely isotropic solids

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Authors: A. Amiri Delouei

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In the current study, two-dimensional unsteady heat conduction in a functionally graded cylinder is studied analytically. The temperature distribution is in radial and longitudinal directions. Heat conduction coefficients are considered a power function of radius both in radial and longitudinal directions. The proposed solution can exactly satisfy the boundary conditions. Analytical unsteady temperature distribution for different parameters of functionally graded cylinder is investigated. The achieved exact solution is useful for thermal stress analysis of functionally graded cylinders. Regarding the analytical approach, this solution can be used to understand the concepts of heat conduction in functionally graded materials.

Keywords: functionally graded materials, unsteady heat conduction, cylinder, temperature distribution

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Authors: Mahdi Rahimi, Mohammad Mahdi Mojahedian, Mohammad Reza Aref

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In this paper, a cellular communication scenario with a transmitter and an authorized user is considered to analyze its secrecy in the face of eavesdroppers and the interferences propagated unintentionally through the communication network. It is also assumed that some D2D pairs and eavesdroppers are randomly located in the cell. Assuming hardware impairment, perfect connection probability is analytically calculated, and upper bound is provided for the secrecy outage probability. In addition, a method based on random activation of D2Ds is proposed to improve network security. Finally, the analytical results are verified by simulations.

Keywords: physical layer security, stochastic geometry, device-to-device, hardware impairment

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Authors: Abhijitsinh Gohil, Kaushal Wadhvaniya, Kuldipsinh Jadeja

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Road Safety is a multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional issue. An effective model can assess the risk associated with highway safety. A questionnaire survey is very essential to identify the events or activities which are causing unsafe condition for traffic on an urban highway. A questionnaire of standard questions including vehicular, human and infrastructure characteristics can be made. Responses from the age wise group of road users can be taken on field. Each question or an event holds a specific risk weightage, which contributes in creating an inappropriate and unsafe flow of traffic. The probability of occurrence of an event can be calculated from the data collected from the road users. Finally, the risk score can be calculated by considering the risk factor and the probability of occurrence of individual event and addition of all risk score for the individual event will give the total risk score of a particular road. Standards for risk score can be made and total risk score can be compared with the standards. Thus road can be categorized based on risk associated and traffic safety on it. With this model, one can assess the need for traffic safety improvement on a given road, and qualitative data can be analysed.

Keywords: probability of occurrence, questionnaire, risk factor, risk score

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Authors: Michel A. Thomet

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A discrete-event simulation model was used to perform a Reliability-Availability-Maintainability (RAM) study of a large petrochemical complex which included sixteen process units, and seven feeds and intermediate streams. All the feeds and intermediate streams have associated storage tanks, so that if a processing unit fails and shuts down, the downstream units can keep producing their outputs. This also helps the upstream units which do not have to reduce their outputs, but can store their excess production until the failed unit restart. Each process unit and each pipe section carrying the feeds and intermediate streams has a probability of failure with an associated distribution and a Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF), as well as a distribution of the time to restore and a Mean Time To Restore (MTTR). The utilities supporting the process units can also fail and have their own distributions with specific MTBF and MTTR. The model runs are for ten years or more and the runs are repeated several times to obtain statistically relevant results. One of the main results is the On-Stream factor (OSF) of each process unit (percent of hours in a year when the unit is running in nominal conditions). One of the objectives of the study was to investigate if the storage capacity of each of the feeds and the intermediate stream was adequate. This was done by increasing the storage capacities in several steps and through running the simulation to see if the OSF were improved and by how much. Other objectives were to see if the failure of the utilities were an important factor in the overall OSF, and what could be done to reduce their failure rates through redundant equipment.

Keywords: business continuity, on-stream factor, petrochemical, RAM study, simulation, MTBF

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Authors: Soban Najam, S. M. Jahanzeb, Ahmed Sohail, Faraz Idris Khan

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With the recent increase in reliance on Gas as the primary source of energy across the world, there has been a lot of research conducted on gas distribution networks. As the complexity and size of these networks grow, so does the leakage of gas in the distribution network. One of the most crucial factors in the production and distribution of gas is UFG or Unaccounted for Gas. The presence of UFG signifies that there is a difference between the amount of gas distributed, and the amount of gas billed. Our approach is to use information that we acquire from several specified points in the network. This information will be used to calculate the loss occurring in the network using the developed algorithm. The Algorithm can also identify the leakages at any point of the pipeline so we can easily detect faults and rectify them within minimal time, minimal efforts and minimal resources.

Keywords: FLA, fault location analysis, GDN, gas distribution network, GIS, geographic information system, NMS, network Management system, OMS, outage management system, SSGC, Sui Southern gas company, UFG, unaccounted for gas

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Authors: Al Omari Mohammed Ahmed

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This paper focuses on Maximum Likelihood Estimator with Covariate. Covariates are incorporated into the Weibull model. Under this regression model with regards to maximum likelihood estimator, the parameters of the covariate, shape parameter, survival function and hazard rate of the Weibull regression distribution with right censored data are estimated. The mean square error (MSE) and absolute bias are used to compare the performance of Weibull regression distribution. For the simulation comparison, the study used various sample sizes and several specific values of the Weibull shape parameter.

Keywords: weibull regression distribution, maximum likelihood estimator, survival function, hazard rate, right censoring

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Authors: Rong-Tsorng Wang

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In this paper, we derive a pricing formula for catastrophe equity put options (or CatEPut) with non-homogeneous loss and approximated compound distributions. We assume that the loss claims arrival process is a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) representing the clustering occurrences of loss claims, the size of loss claims is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, and the accumulated loss distribution forms a compound distribution and is approximated by a heavy-tailed distribution. A numerical example is given to calibrate parameters, and we discuss how the value of CatEPut is affected by the changes of parameters in the pricing model we provided.

Keywords: catastrophe equity put options, compound distributions, nonhomogeneous Poisson process, pricing model

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Authors: S. Bouhouche, R. Drai, J. Bast

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This paper is concerned with a method for uncertainty evaluation of steel sample content using X-Ray Fluorescence method. The considered method of analysis is a comparative technique based on the X-Ray Fluorescence; the calibration step assumes the adequate chemical composition of metallic analyzed sample. It is proposed in this work a new combined approach using the Kalman Filter and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for uncertainty estimation of steel content analysis. The Kalman filter algorithm is extended to the model identification of the chemical analysis process using the main factors affecting the analysis results; in this case, the estimated states are reduced to the model parameters. The MCMC is a stochastic method that computes the statistical properties of the considered states such as the probability distribution function (PDF) according to the initial state and the target distribution using Monte Carlo simulation algorithm. Conventional approach is based on the linear correlation, the uncertainty budget is established for steel Mn(wt%), Cr(wt%), Ni(wt%) and Mo(wt%) content respectively. A comparative study between the conventional procedure and the proposed method is given. This kind of approaches is applied for constructing an accurate computing procedure of uncertainty measurement.

Keywords: Kalman filter, Markov chain Monte Carlo, x-ray fluorescence calibration and testing, steel content measurement, uncertainty measurement

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Authors: S. Phanyaem

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This paper presents the confidence intervals for the effect size base on bootstrap resampling method. The meta-analytic confidence interval for effect size is proposed that are easy to compute. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the proposed confidence intervals with the existing confidence intervals. The best confidence interval method will have a coverage probability close to 0.95. Simulation results have shown that our proposed confidence intervals perform well in terms of coverage probability and expected length.

Keywords: effect size, confidence interval, bootstrap method, resampling

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Authors: A. Assif

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This paper presents the modeling of a prototype distribution static compensator (D-STATCOM) for voltage sag and swell mitigation in an unbalanced distribution system. Here the concept that an inverter can be used as generalized impedance converter to realize either inductive or capacitive reactance has been used to mitigate power quality issues of distribution networks. The D-STATCOM is here supposed to replace the widely used StaticVar Compensator (SVC). The scheme is based on the Voltage Source Converter (VSC) principle. In this model PWM based control scheme has been implemented to control the electronic valves of VSC. Phase shift control Algorithm method is used for converter control. The D-STATCOM injects a current into the system to mitigate the voltage sags. In this paper the modeling of D¬STATCOM has been designed using MATLAB SIMULINIC. Accordingly, simulations are first carried out to illustrate the use of D-STATCOM in mitigating voltage sag in a distribution system. Simulation results prove that the D-STATCOM is capable of mitigating voltage sag as well as improving power quality of a system.

Keywords: D-STATCOM, voltage sag, voltage source converter (VSC), phase shift control

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Authors: Oleg A. Romanovskii, Vladimir D. Burlakov, Sergey I. Dolgii, Olga V. Kharchenko, Alexey A. Nevzorov, Alexey V. Nevzorov

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The paper presents the results of DIAL measurements of the vertical ozone distribution. The ozone lidar operate as part of the measurement complex at Siberian Lidar Station (SLS) of V.E. Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics SB RAS, Tomsk (56.5ºN; 85.0ºE) and designed for study of the vertical ozone distribution in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere. Most suitable wavelengths for measurements of ozone profiles are selected. We present an algorithm for retrieval of vertical distribution of ozone with temperature and aerosol correction during DIAL lidar sounding of the atmosphere. The temperature correction of ozone absorption coefficients is introduced in the software to reduce the retrieval errors. Results of lidar measurement at wavelengths of 299 and 341 nm agree with model estimates, which point to acceptable accuracy of ozone sounding in the 6–18 km altitude range.

Keywords: lidar, ozone distribution, atmosphere, DIAL

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Authors: Behnam Tavakkol

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Uncertain data mining algorithms use different ways to consider uncertainty in data such as by representing a data object as a sample of points or a probability distribution. Fuzzy methods have long been used for clustering traditional (certain) data objects. They are used to produce non-crisp cluster labels. For uncertain data, however, besides some uncertain fuzzy k-medoids algorithms, not many other fuzzy clustering methods have been developed. In this work, we develop a fuzzy kernel k-medoids algorithm for clustering uncertain data objects. The developed fuzzy kernel k-medoids algorithm is superior to existing fuzzy k-medoids algorithms in clustering data sets with non-linearly separable clusters.

Keywords: clustering algorithm, fuzzy methods, kernel k-medoids, uncertain data

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Authors: Rafik Ouared

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The purpose of this paper is to invalidate decisions made by the Islamic conference led at Istanbul in 2016, which had defined two basic criteria to determine the start of the lunar month: (1)they are all based on the sighting of the crescent, be it observed or computed with modern methods, and (2) they've strongly recommended the adoption of the principle of 'unification of sighting', by which any occurrence of sighting anywhere would be applicable everywhere. To demonstrate the invalidation of those statements, a survey of 101 years of data, from 1938 to 2038, have been analyzed to compare the probability density function (PDF) of time difference between different types of fajr and new moon. Two groups of fajr have been considered: the 'natural fajr', which is the very first fajr following new moon, and the 'biased fajr', which is defined by human being inclusively of all chosen definitions. The parametric and non-parametric statistical comparisons between the different groups have shown the all the biased PDFs are significantly different from the unbiased (natural) PDF with probability value (p-value) less than 0.001. The significance level was fixed to 0.05. Conclusion: the on-going reference to sighting of crescent is inducing an significant bias in defining lunar calendar. Therefore, 'natural' calendar would be more applicable requiring a more contextualized revision of issue in fiqh.

Keywords: biased fajr, lunar calendar, natural fajr, probability density function, sighting of crescent, time difference between fajr and new moon

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Authors: Muhammad Bahrul Ilmi

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The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of Islamic financing and work relation founding simultaneously and partially towards non-performing financing in Islamic banks. This research was regression quantitative field research, and had been done in Muammalat Indonesia Bank and Islamic Danamon Bank in 3 months. The populations of this research were 15 account officers of Muammalat Indonesia Bank and Islamic Danamon Bank in Surakarta, Indonesia. The techniques of collecting data used in this research were documentation, questionnaire, literary study and interview. Regression analysis result shows that Islamic financing and work relation founding simultaneously has positive and significant effect towards non performing financing of two Islamic Banks. It is obtained with probability value 0.003 which is less than 0.05 and F value 9.584. The analysis result of Islamic financing regression towards non performing financing shows the significant effect. It is supported by double linear regression analysis with probability value 0.001 which is less than 0.05. The regression analysis of work relation founding effect towards non-performing financing shows insignificant effect. This is shown in the double linear regression analysis with probability value 0.161 which is bigger than 0.05.

Keywords: Syariah financing, work relation founding, non-performing financing (NPF), Islamic Bank

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Authors: Suk-Hyun Yu, Heeyong Kwon

Abstract:

Recently PM-10 has become a social and global issue. It is one of major air pollutants which affect human health. Therefore, it needs to be forecasted rapidly and precisely. However, PM-10 comes from various emission sources, and its level of concentration is largely dependent on meteorological and geographical factors of local and global region, so the forecasting of PM-10 concentration is very difficult. Neural network model can be used in the case. But, there are few cases of high concentration PM-10. It makes the learning of the neural network model difficult. In this paper, we suggest a simple input balancing method when the data distribution is uneven. It is based on the probability of appearance of the data. Experimental results show that the input balancing makes the neural networks’ learning easy and improves the forecasting rates.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, air quality prediction, neural networks, pattern recognition, PM-10

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Authors: Mehrnaz Alibeikloo, Hadi Khabbaz, Behzad Fatahi

Abstract:

Probabilistic analysis has become one of the most popular methods to quantify and manage geotechnical risks due to the spatial variability of soil input parameters. The correlation length is one of the key factors of quantifying spatial variability of soil parameters which is defined as a distance within which the random variables are correlated strongly. This paper aims to assess the impact of correlation length on the long-term settlement of soft soils improved with preloading. The concept of 'worst-case' spatial correlation length was evaluated by determining the probability of failure of a real case study of Vasby test fill. For this purpose, a finite difference code was developed based on axisymmetric consolidation equations incorporating the non-linear elastic visco-plastic model and the Karhunen-Loeve expansion method. The results show that correlation length has a significant impact on the post-construction settlement of soft soils in a way that by increasing correlation length, probability of failure increases and the approach to asymptote.

Keywords: Karhunen-Loeve expansion, probability of failure, soft soil settlement, 'worst case' spatial correlation length

Procedia PDF Downloads 137