Search results for: position error

Authors: Sidra A. Shaikh, M. A. Ahmed, M. W. Akhtar

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Global and diffuse solar radiation studies have been carried out for Islamabad (Lat: 330 43’ N, Long: 370 71’) to access the solar potential of the area using sunshine hour data. A detailed analysis of global solar radiation values measured using several methods is presented. These values are then compared with the NASA SSE model. The variation in direct and diffuse components of solar radiation is observed in summer and winter months for Islamabad along with the clearness index KT. The diffuse solar radiation is found maximum in the month of July. Direct and beam radiation is found to be high in the month of April to June. From the results it appears that with the exception of monsoon months, July and August, solar radiation for electricity generation can be utilized very efficiently throughout the year. Finally, the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean percent error (MPE) for global solar radiation are also presented.

Keywords: solar potential, global and diffuse solar radiation, Islamabad, errors

Procedia PDF Downloads 411

Authors: Andi Intan Purnamasari, Supriyadi, Sulbadana, Aminuddin Kasim

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Law functions as social control. Providing arrangements not only for legal certainty, but also in the scope of justice and expediency. The three values ​​achieved by law essentially function to bring comfort to each individual in carrying out daily activities. However, it is undeniable that global conditions have changed the orientation of people's lifestyles. Some people want to ensure their existence in the digital world which is popularly known as the metaverse. Some countries even project their city to be a metaverse city. The order of life is no longer limited to the real space, but also to the cyber world. Not infrequently, legal events that occur in the cyber world also force the law to position its position and even prevent crime in cyberspace. Through this research, conceptually it provides a view of the legal position in crime prevention in the Metaverse world. when the law acts to regulate the situation in the virtual world, of course some people will feel disturbed, this is due to the thought that the virtual world is a world in which an avatar can do things that cannot be done in the real world, or can be called a world without boundaries. Therefore, when the law is present to provide boundaries, of course the concept of the virtual world itself becomes no longer a cyber world that is not limited by space and time, it becomes a new order of life. approach, approach, approach, approach, and approach will certainly be the method used in this research.

Keywords: crime, cyber, metaverse, law

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Wararit Panichkitkosolkul

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The unit root tests based on the robust estimator for the first-order autoregressive process are proposed and compared with the unit root tests based on the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator. The percentiles of the null distributions of the unit root test are also reported. The empirical probabilities of Type I error and powers of the unit root tests are estimated via Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation results show that all unit root tests can control the probability of Type I error for all situations. The empirical power of the unit root tests based on the robust estimator are higher than the unit root tests based on the OLS estimator.

Keywords: autoregressive, ordinary least squares, type i error, power of the test, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Maoxin Ye

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This study examines the relationship between social network sites (SNS) usage and social capital. Because SNS usage can expand the users’ networks, and people who are connected in this networks may become resources to SNS users and lead them to advantage in some situation, it is important to estimate the relationship between SNS usage and ‘who’ is connected or what resources the SNS users can get. Additionally, ‘who’ can be divided in two aspects – people who possess high position and people who are different, hence, it is important to estimate the relationship between SNS usage and high position people and different people. This study adapts Lin’s definition of social capital and the measurement of position generator which tells us who was connected, and can be divided into the same two aspects as well. A national data of America (N = 2,255) collected by Pew Research Center is utilized to do a general regression analysis about SNS usage and social capital. The results indicate that SNS usage is negatively associated with each factor of social capital, and it suggests that, in fact, comparing with non-users, although SNS users can get more connections, the variety and resources of these connections are fewer. For this reason, we could lose benefits through SNS usage.

Keywords: social network sites, social capital, position generator, general regression

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Authors: Rutej R. Mehta, Michael A. Chappell

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Introduction: Arterial spin labelling (ASL) is an increasingly popular perfusion MRI technique, in which arterial blood water is magnetically labelled in the neck before flowing into the brain, providing a non-invasive measure of cerebral blood flow (CBF). The accuracy of ASL CBF measurements, however, is hampered by dispersion effects; the distortion of the ASL labelled bolus during its transit through the vasculature. In spite of this, the current recommended implementation of ASL – the white paper (Alsop et al., MRM, 73.1 (2015): 102-116) – does not account for dispersion, which leads to the introduction of errors in CBF. Given that the transport time from the labelling region to the tissue – the arterial transit time (ATT) – depends on the region of the brain and the condition of the patient, it is likely that these errors will also vary with the ATT. In this study, various dispersion models are assessed in comparison with the white paper (WP) formula for CBF quantification, enabling the errors introduced by the WP to be quantified. Additionally, this study examines the relationship between the errors associated with the WP and the ATT – and how this is influenced by dispersion. Methods: Data were simulated using the standard model for pseudo-continuous ASL, along with various dispersion models, and then quantified using the formula in the WP. The ATT was varied from 0.5s-1.3s, and the errors associated with noise artefacts were computed in order to define the concept of significant error. The instantaneous slope of the error was also computed as an indicator of the sensitivity of the error with fluctuations in ATT. Finally, a regression analysis was performed to obtain the mean error against ATT. Results: An error of 20.9% was found to be comparable to that introduced by typical measurement noise. The WP formula was shown to introduce errors exceeding 20.9% for ATTs beyond 1.25s even when dispersion effects were ignored. Using a Gaussian dispersion model, a mean error of 16% was introduced by using the WP, and a dispersion threshold of σ=0.6 was determined, beyond which the error was found to increase considerably with ATT. The mean error ranged from 44.5% to 73.5% when other physiologically plausible dispersion models were implemented, and the instantaneous slope varied from 35 to 75 as dispersion levels were varied. Conclusion: It has been shown that the WP quantification formula holds only within an ATT window of 0.5 to 1.25s, and that this window gets narrower as dispersion occurs. Provided that the dispersion levels fall below the threshold evaluated in this study, however, the WP can measure CBF with reasonable accuracy if dispersion is correctly modelled by the Gaussian model. However, substantial errors were observed with other common models for dispersion with dispersion levels similar to those that have been observed in literature.

Keywords: arterial spin labelling, dispersion, MRI, perfusion

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Authors: Sandro Bartolini, Alessandro Mecocci, Alessio Medaglini

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The growing popularity of systems based on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is highlighting their vulnerability, particularly in relation to the positioning system used. Typically, UAV architectures use the civilian GPS, which is exposed to a number of different attacks, such as jamming or spoofing. This is why it is important to develop alternative methodologies to accurately estimate the actual UAV position without relying on GPS measurements only. In this paper, we propose a position estimate method for UAVs based on monocular visual odometry. We have developed a flight control system capable of keeping track of the entire trajectory travelled, with a reduced dependency on the availability of GPS signals. Moreover, the simplicity of the developed solution makes it applicable to a wide range of commercial drones. The final goal is to allow for safer flights in all conditions, even under cyber-attacks trying to deceive the drone.

Keywords: visual odometry, autonomous uav, position measurement, autonomous outdoor flight

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Authors: Ramy H. Mohammed

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In heat sinks, the flow within the core exhibits separation and hence does not lend itself to simple analytical boundary layer or duct flow analysis of the wall friction. In this paper, I present some findings from an experimental and numerical study aimed to obtain physical insight into the influence of the presence of the shield and its position on the hydraulic and thermal performance of square pin fin heat sink without top by-pass. The variations of the Nusselt number and friction factor are obtained under varied parameters, such as the Reynolds number and the shield position. The numerical code is validated by comparing the numerical results with the available experimental data. It is shown that, there is a good agreement between the temperature predictions based on the model and the experimental data. Results show that, as the presence of the shield, the heat transfer of fin array is enhanced and the flow resistance increased. The surface temperature distribution of the heat sink base is more uniform when the dimensionless shield position equals to 1/3 or 2/3. The comprehensive performance evaluation approach based on identical pumping power criteria is adopted and shows that the optimum shield position is at x/l=0.43 where energy is saved.

Keywords: shield, fin array, performance evaluation, heat transfer, energy

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: Tigist Girma Kedane

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The purpose of the current research work is to measure the physical properties of bamboo species in Ethiopia on the impact of age, harvesting seasons and culm height. Three representatives of bamboo plants are harvested in three groups of ages, 2 harvesting months, and 3 regions of Ethiopia. Research has not been done on the physical properties of bamboo species in Ethiopia so far. Moisture content and shrinkage of bamboo culm increase when the culm ages younger and moves from top to bottom position. The harvesting month of November has a higher moisture content and shrinkage compared to February. One year old of Injibara, Kombolcha, and Mekaneselam bamboo culm has 40%, 30%, and 33% higher moisture content, 29%, 24%, and 28% higher radial shrinkage, 32%, 37%, and 32% higher tangential shrinkage compared to 3 years old respectively. The bottom position of Injibara, Kombolcha, and Mekaneselam in November have 45%, 28%, and 25% higher moisture content, 41%, 29%, and 34% radial shrinkage, 29%, 28%, and 42% tangential shrinkage than the top position, respectively. The basic density increases as the age of the bamboo becomes older and moves from the bottom to the top position. November has the lowest basic density compared to February. 3 years old of Injibara, Kombolcha, and Mekaneselam at the age of 3 years have 32%, 50%, and 24% higher basic density compared to 1 year, whereas the top position has 35%, 26%, and 22% higher than the bottom position in February, respectively. The current research proposed that 3 years and February are suited for structural purposes and furniture making, but 1 year and November are suited for fiber extraction in the composite industry. The existence of water in the culm improves an easy extraction of the fibers without damage from the culm.

Keywords: bamboo age, bamboo height, harvesting seasons, physical properties

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Authors: Rafsan Al Mamun, Md. Motaharul Islam, Rabana Tajrin, Nabiha Noor, Shafinaz Qader

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In an attempt to enrich the lives of billions of people by providing proper information, security and a way of communicating with others, the need for efficient and improved satellites is constantly growing. Thus, there is an increasing demand for better error detection and correction (EDAC) schemes, which are capable of protecting the data onboard the satellites. The paper is aimed towards detecting and correcting such errors using a special algorithm called the Hamming Code, which uses the concept of parity and parity bits to prevent single-bit errors onboard a satellite in Low Earth Orbit. This paper focuses on the study of Low Earth Orbit satellites and the process of generating the Hamming Code matrix to be used for EDAC using computer programs. The most effective version of Hamming Code generated was the Hamming (16, 11, 4) version using MATLAB, and the paper compares this particular scheme with other EDAC mechanisms, including other versions of Hamming Codes and Cyclic Redundancy Check (CRC), and the limitations of this scheme. This particular version of the Hamming Code guarantees single-bit error corrections as well as double-bit error detections. Furthermore, this version of Hamming Code has proved to be fast with a checking time of 5.669 nanoseconds, that has a relatively higher code rate and lower bit overhead compared to the other versions and can detect a greater percentage of errors per length of code than other EDAC schemes with similar capabilities. In conclusion, with the proper implementation of the system, it is quite possible to ensure a relatively uncorrupted satellite storage system.

Keywords: bit-flips, Hamming code, low earth orbit, parity bits, satellite, single error upset

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Authors: Vixen Joshua Tan, Siyuan He

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Scanners have been implemented within single point laser rangefinders, to determine the ranges within an environment by sweeping the laser spot across the surface of interest. The research motivation is to exploit a smaller and cheaper alternative scanning component for the emitting portion within current designs of laser rangefinders. This research implements an FPCB (Flexible Programmable Circuit Board) Electromagnetic 1-Dimensional scanning micro-mirror as a scanning component for laser rangefinding by means of triangulation. The prototype uses a laser module, micro-mirror, and receiver. The laser module is infrared (850 nm) with a power output of 4.5 mW. The receiver consists of a 50 mm convex lens and a 45mm 1-dimensional PSD (Position Sensitive Detector) placed at the focal length of the lens at 50 mm. The scanning component is an elliptical Micro-Mirror attached onto an FPCB Structure. The FPCB structure has two miniature magnets placed symmetrically underneath it on either side, which are then electromagnetically actuated by small solenoids, causing the FPCB to mechanically rotate about its torsion beams. The laser module projects a laser spot onto the micro-mirror surface, hence producing a scanning motion of the laser spot during the rotational actuation of the FPCB. The receiver is placed at a fixed distance from the micro-mirror scanner and is oriented to capture the scanning motion of the laser spot during operation. The elliptical aperture dimensions of the micro-mirror are 8mm by 5.5 mm. The micro-mirror is supported by an FPCB with two torsion beams with dimensions of 4mm by 0.5mm. The overall length of the FPCB is 23 mm. The voltage supplied to the solenoids is sinusoidal with an amplitude of 3.5 volts and 4.5 volts to achieve optical scanning angles of +/- 10 and +/- 17 degrees respectively. The operating scanning frequency during experiments was 5 Hz. For an optical angle of +/- 10 degrees, the prototype is capable of detecting objects within the ranges from 0.3-1.2 meters with an error of less than 15%. As for an optical angle of +/- 17 degrees the measuring range was from 0.3-0.7 meters with an error of 16% or less. Discrepancy between the experimental and actual data is possibly caused by misalignment of the components during experiments. Furthermore, the power of the laser spot collected by the receiver gradually decreased as the object was placed further from the sensor. A higher powered laser will be tested to potentially measure further distances more accurately. Moreover, a wide-angled lens will be used in future experiments when higher scanning angles are used. Modulation within the current and future higher powered lasers will be implemented to enable the operation of the laser rangefinder prototype without the use of safety goggles.

Keywords: FPCB electromagnetic 1-D scanning micro-mirror, laser rangefinder, position sensitive detector, PSD, triangulation

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Authors: Abdel-Razzaq Mugdadi, Ruqayyah Sani

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The Kernel Distribution Function Estimator (KDFE) method is the most popular method for nonparametric estimation of the cumulative distribution function. The kernel and the bandwidth are the most important components of this estimator. In this investigation, we replace the kernel in the KDFE with a linear combination of kernels to obtain a new estimator based on the linear combination of kernels, the mean integrated squared error (MISE), asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) and the asymptotically optimal bandwidth for the new estimator are derived. We propose a new data-based method to select the bandwidth for the new estimator. The new technique is based on the Plug-in technique in density estimation. We evaluate the new estimator and the new technique using simulations and real-life data.

Keywords: estimation, bandwidth, mean square error, cumulative distribution function

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Authors: Y. T. Lee, J. H. Na, S. H. Kim, S. U. Hong

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In this study, an experimental research for estimation of slab depth, column size and location of rebar of concrete specimen is conducted using the Impact Echo Method (IE) based on stress wave among non-destructive test methods. Estimation of slab depth had total length of 1800×300 and 6 different depths including 150 mm, 180 mm, 210 mm, 240 mm, 270 mm and 300 mm. The concrete column specimen was manufactured by differentiating the size into 300×300×300 mm, 400×400×400 mm and 500×500×500 mm. In case of the specimen for estimation of rebar, rebar of ∅22 mm was used in a specimen of 300×370×200 and arranged at 130 mm and 150 mm from the top to the rebar top. As a result of error rate of slab depth was overall mean of 3.1%. Error rate of column size was overall mean of 1.7%. Mean error rate of rebar location was 1.72% for top, 1.19% for bottom and 1.5% for overall mean showing relative accuracy.

Keywords: impact echo method, estimation, slab depth, column size, rebar location, concrete

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Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka

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We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

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Authors: Rufus Temidayo Akinnubi, M. O. Adeniyi

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Existing diurnal air temperature models simulate night time air temperature over Nigeria with high biases. An improved parameterization is presented for modeling the diurnal pattern of air temperature (Ta) which is applicable in the calculation of turbulent heat fluxes in Global climate models, based on Nigeria Micrometeorological Experimental site (NIMEX) surface layer observations. Five diurnal Ta models for estimating hourly Ta from daily maximum, daily minimum, and daily mean air temperature were validated using root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean Error Bias (MBE) and scatter graphs. The original Fourier series model showed better performance for unstable air temperature parameterizations while the stable Ta was strongly overestimated with a large error. The model was improved with the inclusion of the atmospheric cooling rate that accounts for the temperature inversion that occurs during the nocturnal boundary layer condition. The MBE and RMSE estimated by the modified Fourier series model reduced by 4.45 oC and 3.12 oC during the transitional period from dry to wet stable atmospheric conditions. The modified Fourier series model gave good estimation of the diurnal weather patterns of Ta when compared with other existing models for a tropical environment.

Keywords: air temperature, mean bias error, Fourier series analysis, surface energy balance,

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Authors: El Andari Chifaa, Bouaziz Rached

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The central focus of this paper was to check whether the Okun’s law in Tunisia is valid or not. For this purpose, we have used quarterly time series data during the period 1990Q1-2014Q1. Firstly, we applied the error correction model instead of the difference version of Okun's Law, the Engle-Granger and Johansen test are employed to find out long run association between unemployment, production, and how error correction mechanism (ECM) is used for short run dynamic. Secondly, we used the gap version of Okun’s law where the estimation is done from three band pass filters which are mathematical tools used in macro-economic and especially in business cycles theory. The finding of the study indicates that the inverse relationship between unemployment and output is verified in the short and long term, and the Okun's law holds for the Tunisian economy, but with an Okun’s coefficient lower than required. Therefore, our empirical results have important implications for structural and cyclical policymakers in Tunisia to promote economic growth in a context of lower unemployment growth.

Keywords: Okun’s law, validity, unit root, cointegration, error correction model, bandpass filters

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Authors: Matteo Bonaventura, Giancarlo Giudici

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This paper analyses the valuation process of companies listed on the Italian Exchange in the period 2000-2009 at their Initial Public Offering (IPO). One the most common valuation techniques declared in the IPO prospectus to determine the offer price is the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. We develop a ‘reverse engineering’ model to discover the short term profitability implied in the offer prices. We show that there is a significant optimistic bias in the estimation of future profitability compared to ex-post actual realization and the mean forecast error is substantially large. Yet we show that such error characterizes also the estimations carried out by analysts evaluating non-IPO companies. The forecast error is larger the faster has been the recent growth of the company, the higher is the leverage of the IPO firm, the more companies issued equity on the market. IPO companies generally exhibit better operating performance before the listing, with respect to comparable listed companies, while after the flotation they do not perform significantly different in term of return on invested capital. Pre-IPO book building activity plays a significant role in partially reducing the forecast error and revising expectations, while the market price of the first day of trading does not contain information for further reducing forecast errors.

Keywords: initial public offerings, DCF, book building, post-IPO profitability drop

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Authors: Kyoung-Jin Joo, In-Gun Kim, Hyun-Seok Hong, Dong-Woo Kang, Ju Lee

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Recently, the permanent magnet-assisted synchronous reluctance motor (PMa-SynRM) that can be substituted for the induction motor has been studying because of the needs of the development of the premium high efficiency motor for the minimum energy performance standard (MEPS). PMa-SynRM is required to the speed and position information for motor speed and torque controls. However, to apply the sensors has many problems that are sensor mounting space shortage and additional cost, etc. Therefore, in this paper, speed-sensorless control based on model reference adaptive system (MRAS) is introduced to eliminate the sensor. The sensorless method is constructed in a reference model as standard and an adaptive model as the state observer. The proposed algorithm is verified by the simulation.

Keywords: PMa-SynRM, sensorless control, robust estimation, MRAS method

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Authors: Elham Alaee, Mousa Shamsi, Hossein Ahmadi, Soroosh Nazem, Mohammad Hossein Sedaaghi

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Human face has a fundamental role in the appearance of individuals. So the importance of facial surgeries is undeniable. Thus, there is a need for the appropriate and accurate facial skin segmentation in order to extract different features. Since Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm doesn’t work appropriately for noisy images and outliers, in this paper we exploit Possibilistic C-Means (PCM) algorithm in order to segment the facial skin. For this purpose, first, we convert facial images from RGB to YCbCr color space. To evaluate performance of the proposed algorithm, the database of Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz, Iran was used. In order to have a better understanding from the proposed algorithm; FCM and Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms are also used for facial skin segmentation. The proposed method shows better results than the other segmentation methods. Results include misclassification error (0.032) and the region’s area error (0.045) for the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: facial image, segmentation, PCM, FCM, skin error, facial surgery

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Authors: Selami Şahin

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In this paper, in order to achieve sufficient bit error rate (BER) according to zenith angle of the satellite to ground station, SNR requirement is investigated utilizing pulse position modulation (PPM). To realize explicit results, all parameters such as link distance, Rytov variance, scintillation index, wavelength, aperture diameter of the receiver, Fried's parameter and zenith angle have been taken into account. Results indicate that after some parameters are determined since the constraints of the system, to achieve desired BER, required SNR values are in wide range while zenith angle changes from small to large values. Therefore, in order not to utilize high link margin, either SNR should adjust according to zenith angle or link should establish with predetermined intervals of the zenith angle.

Keywords: Free-space optical communication, optical downlink channel, atmospheric turbulence, wireless optical communication

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Authors: Mojtaba Valinataj

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Nowadays reversible logic has received many attentions as one of the new fields for reducing the power consumption. On the other hand, the processing systems have weaknesses against different external effects. In this paper, some error detecting reversible logic serial multipliers are proposed by incorporating the parity-preserving gates. This way, the new designs are presented for signed parity-preserving serial multipliers based on the Booth's algorithm by exploiting the new arrangements of existing gates. The experimental results show that the proposed 4×4 multipliers in this paper reach up to 20%, 35%, and 41% enhancements in the number of constant inputs, quantum cost, and gate count, respectively, as the reversible logic criteria, compared to previous designs. Furthermore, all the proposed designs have been generalized for n×n multipliers with general formulations to estimate the main reversible logic criteria as the functions of the multiplier size.

Keywords: Booth’s algorithm, error detection, multiplication, parity-preserving gates, quantum computers, reversible logic

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Authors: Aye Pa Pa Myo

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Writing in English is accounted as a complex process for English as a foreign language learners. Besides, committing errors in writing can be found as an inevitable part of language learners’ writing. Generally, academic writing is quite difficult for most of the students to manage for getting better scores. Students can commit common errors in their writings when they try to write academic writing. Error analysis deals with identifying and detecting the errors and also explains the reason for the occurrence of these errors. In this paper, the researcher has an attempt to examine the common errors of undergraduate students in their academic writings at Pathein University. The purpose of doing this research is to investigate the errors which students usually commit in academic writing and to find out the better ways for correcting these errors in EFL classrooms. In this research, fifty-third-year non-English specialization students attending Pathein University were selected as participants. This research took one month. It was conducted with a mixed methodology method. Two mini-tests were used as research tools. Data were collected with a quantitative research method. Findings from this research pointed that most of the students noticed their common errors after getting the necessary input, and they became more decreased committing these errors after taking mini-test; hence, all findings will be supportive for further researches related to error analysis in academic writing.

Keywords: academic writing, error analysis, EFL learners, mini-tests, mixed methodology

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Authors: Kazuya Sato, Toru Kasahara, Junji Kuroda

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In this paper, an autonomous hovering control method of multicopter using only Web camera is proposed. Recently, various control method of an autonomous flight for multicopter are proposed. But, in the previously proposed methods, a motion capture system (i.e., OptiTrack) and laser range finder are often used to measure the position and posture of multicopter. To achieve an autonomous flight control of multicopter with simple equipment, we propose an autonomous flight control method using AR marker and Web camera. AR marker can measure the position of multicopter with Cartesian coordinate in three dimensional, then its position connects with aileron, elevator, and accelerator throttle operation. A simple PID control method is applied to the each operation and adjust the controller gains. Experimental result are given to show the effectiveness of our proposed method. Moreover, another simple operation method for autonomous flight control multicopter is also proposed.

Keywords: autonomous hovering control, multicopter, Web camera, operation

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Authors: Brahim Boukabcha, Amar Rebbouh

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The bootstrap method based on the idea of exploiting all the information provided by the initial sample, allows us to study the properties of estimators. In this article we will present a theoretical study on the different methods of bootstrapping and using the technique of re-sampling in statistics inference to calculate the standard error of means of an estimator and determining a confidence interval for an estimated parameter. We apply these methods tested in the regression models and Pareto model, giving the best approximations.

Keywords: bootstrap, error standard, bias, jackknife, mean, median, variance, confidence interval, regression models

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: wind power, uncertainty, stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Salako Rotimi, Oshungade Stephen, Ojewoye Opeyemi

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The maintenance of price stability is one of the macroeconomic challenges facing Nigeria as a nation. This paper attempts to build a co-integration multivariate time series model for inflation movement in Nigeria using data extracted from the abstract of statistics of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 2008 to 2017. The Johansen cointegration test suggests at least one co-integration vector describing the long run relationship between Consumer Price Index (CPI), Food Price Index (FPI) and Non-Food Price Index (NFPI). All three series show increasing pattern, which indicates a sign of non-stationary in each of the series. Furthermore, model predictability was established with root-mean-square-error, mean absolute error, mean average percentage error, and Theil’s unbiased statistics for n-step forecasting. The result depicts that the long run coefficient of a consumer price index (CPI) has a positive long-run relationship with the food price index (FPI) and non-food price index (NFPI).

Keywords: economic, inflation, model, series

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Authors: Morsy Ahmed Morsy Ismail

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In this paper, the structure of a coherent homodyne receiver for the Binary Phase Shift Keying (BPSK) Optical Code Division Multiple Access (OCDMA) network is introduced based on the Multi-Length Weighted Modified Prime Code (ML-WMPC) for multimedia applications. The Bit Error Rate (BER) of this homodyne detection is evaluated as a function of the number of active users and the signal to noise ratio for different code lengths according to the multimedia application such as audio, voice, and video. Besides, the Mach-Zehnder interferometer is used as an external phase modulator in homodyne detection. Furthermore, the Multiple Access Interference (MAI) and the receiver noise in a shot-noise limited regime are taken into consideration in the BER calculations.

Keywords: OCDMA networks, bit error rate, multiple access interference, binary phase-shift keying, multimedia

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Authors: Abdelkader Hachemi & Boualem Remini

Abstract:

Seawater intrusion is a significant challenge faced by coastal aquifers in the Mediterranean basin. This study aims to determine the position of the sharp interface between seawater and freshwater in the aquifer of Wadi Nador, located in the Wilaya of Tipaza, Algeria. A numerical areal sharp interface model using the finite element method is developed to investigate the spatial and temporal behavior of seawater intrusion. The aquifer is assumed to be homogeneous and isotropic. The simulation results are compared with geophysical prospection data obtained through electrical methods in 2011 to validate the model. The simulation results demonstrate a good agreement with the geophysical prospection data, confirming the accuracy of the sharp interface model. The position of the sharp interface in the aquifer is found to be approximately 1617 meters from the sea. Two scenarios are proposed to predict the interface position for the year 2024: one without pumping and the other with pumping. The results indicate a noticeable retreat of the sharp interface position in the first scenario, while a slight decline is observed in the second scenario. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the dynamics of seawater intrusion in the Wadi Nador aquifer. The predicted changes in the sharp interface position highlight the potential impact of pumping activities on the aquifer's vulnerability to seawater intrusion. This study emphasizes the importance of implementing measures to manage and mitigate seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. The sharp interface model developed in this research can serve as a valuable tool for assessing and monitoring the vulnerability of aquifers to seawater intrusion.

Keywords: seawater, intrusion, sharp interface, Algeria

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Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu

Abstract:

Richard's growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richard's growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richard's growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richard's nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richard's growth model.

Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, Richard's, stochastic

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Authors: Shih-Pin Chen, Shih-Syuan You

Abstract:

This study proposes a regression model with flexible spreads for fuzzy input-output data to cope with the situation that the existing measures cannot reflect the actual estimation error. The main idea is that a dissemblance index (DI) is carefully identified and defined for precisely measuring the actual estimation error. Moreover, the graded mean integration (GMI) representation is adopted for determining more representative numeric regression coefficients. Notably, to comprehensively compare the performance of the proposed model with other ones, three different criteria are adopted. The results from commonly used test numerical examples and an application to Taiwan's business monitoring indicator illustrate that the proposed dissemblance index method not only produces valid fuzzy regression models for fuzzy input-output data, but also has satisfactory and stable performance in terms of the total estimation error based on these three criteria.

Keywords: dissemblance index, forecasting, fuzzy sets, linear regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 330