Search results for: population trend

Authors: Sevda Ddras, Fariba Mehrkhou, Remzi Atlihan, Maryam Fourouzan

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The greenhouse whitefly, Trialeurodes vaporariorum Westwood (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae), is one of the most important pest on vegetables and ornamental host plants. In this research, the sub-lethal concentration (LC30) of thiamethoxam-lambda cyhalothrin (TLC) on the biological properties, life table parameters and population projection of T. vaporarium and its parasitoid, Encarsia formosa Gahan, were studied at controlled condition (25 ±5 ℃, R.H. 60 ±10 % and a photoperiod of 16:8 h (L:D). Bioassays were conducted by dipping tomato leaves containing third instar nymphs of the whitefly T. vaporariorum, in the obtained LC30 concentration of eforia. The life table data were analyzed using the computer program TWOSEX–MSChart based on the age-stage, two-sex life table theory. The results showed that, usage of sublethal concentration of TLC effected the biological properties and population growth parameters of greenhouse whitefly by shortening the developmentl time, adult longevity, decreasing the fecundity and population growth paramters. Also, the LC30 concentration of TLC had negative effects on life history and life table parameters of E.formosa. The obtained results illustrated that the sublethal concentration of TLC resulted in prolonging of developmental time, decreasing of adult longevity, survival rate and population growth parameters of E.formosa. Additionally, the population projection results were accordance with the population growth rate of either greenhouse whitefly or E.formosa. We conclude that, TLC should not be used in integrated pest management programs where E. formosa exists.

Keywords: greenhouse whitefly, Encarsia formosa, thiamethoxam-lambda cyhalothrin, population projection, life table parameters

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Authors: J-C. Leneveu, A. Chereau, L. Mansart, T. Mesbah, M. Wyka

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Extracting and interpreting information from Big Data represent a stake for years to come in several sectors such as finance. Currently, numerous methods are used (such as Technical Analysis) to try to understand and to anticipate market behavior, with mixed results because it still seems impossible to exactly predict a financial trend. The increase of available data on Internet and their diversity represent a great opportunity for the financial world. Indeed, it is possible, along with these standard financial data, to focus on exogenous data to take into account more macroeconomic factors. Coupling the interpretation of these data with standard methods could allow obtaining more precise trend predictions. In this paper, in order to observe the influence of exogenous data price independent of other usual effects occurring in classical markets, behaviors of Bitcoin users are introduced in a model reconstituting Bitcoin value, which is elaborated and tested for prediction purposes.

Keywords: big data, bitcoin, data mining, social network, financial trends, exogenous data, global economy, behavioral finance

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Authors: Sasiwimol Auepong, Raywat Tanadkithirun

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In this work, the problem that squirrels ruin durian, which is an economical fruit in Thailand, is considered. We seek the strategy for the durian farmers to eliminate the squirrels under the consideration that squirrels also provide ecosystem service. The population dynamics of squirrels are constructed to have carrying capacity since we consider the population in a confined area. A performance index indicating the total benefit of a given elimination strategy is provided. It comprises the cost of countermeasures, the loss of resources, and the ecosystem service provided by squirrels. The optimal performance index is numerically solved through the variational inequality using the finite difference method. The optimal strategy to control the squirrel population is also given numerically.

Keywords: controlled stochastic differential equation, durian, finite difference method, performance index, singular stochastic control model, squirrel

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Authors: Pawit Mongkolprasit, Proud Arunrangsiwed

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Lately, many media organizations in Thailand have started to produce 3D animation, so the quality of personnel should be identified. As an instructor in the school of Animation and Multimedia, the researchers have to prepare the students, suitable for the need of industry. The current study used exploratory research design to establish the knowledge of about this issue, including the required qualification of employees and the potential of animation industry in Thailand. The interview sessions involved three key informants from three well-known organizations. The interview data was used to design a questionnaire for the confirmation phase. The overall results showed that the industry needed an individual with 3D animation skill, computer graphic skills, good communication skills, a high responsibility, and an ability to finish the project on time. Moreover, it is also found that there were currently various kinds of media where 3D animation has been involved, such as films, TV variety, TV advertising, online advertising, and application on mobile device.

Keywords: 3D animation, animation industry, marketing trend, Thailand animation

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Authors: Surrya Khanam

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Understanding the population characteristics of pest species is crucial to develop suitable management plans. The present study was aimed to determine the population ecology of House rat (Rattus rattus) in rural human dwellings of Pothwar, Pakistan. Seasonal rodent trapping was conducted in four villages of Pothwar area from March 2012 to February 2014. A total of 217 individuals of R.rattus were captured from houses, shops, and farm houses. There was no significant difference in the abundance of species across different trapping seasons. The species sex ratio was unbiased and did not differ significantly from 1:1 at all the sites and across all the trapping seasons. The population of R. Rattus had individuals of different age groups, viz., juvenile, sub adults and adults. Overall, more adult individuals were captured in spring and summer season. Breeding activity was continuous throughout the year and reproductively active individuals relatively outnumbered inactive individuals. The results showed that village indoor habitats provided a suitable habitat for rat populations all the year round. The information obtained from this study will be helpful in the development of control strategies for R. rattus populations in commensal habitats.

Keywords: ecology, indoor pests, Rattus rattus, population characteristics

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Authors: Megi Surmanidze

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The relations between tourists and the population is essentially important to develop tourism. This global branch is an incoming stream and plays the huge economy role in the country is development. This branch is important for adjarian region as well as for Batumi as a touristic city. When lots of tourists visit our city, the relationship and attitudes between tourists and the local population is too important and play the determinant role whether they will visit the country again or not. Receptivness is on actual accompanying process typical for tourism as a growing incoming business direction, and its necessary to be studied the problems and touristic relationships. The aim of the article is to show the importance of receptibility in the business touristic industry also, the topic was to show the dimension scale of receptibility revearing in Batumi population. The topic itself is of hight importance as the touristic business is growing day by day, though the helpful and disturbing social couses were left out of focus were dencely connected to the relations between tourists and the local population. The value is real and directly proportional to the relationship between tourists and the population. The qualitative social research was fulfield. The method to get information was deepened interview. the method gave us the opportunity to get acquented to the actors points of view, also it was suitable points of view, also it was suitable to create favourable conditions to respodents be sincere during interviev and don’t hide their real emotions and the opinions.

Keywords: tourism industry, receptiveness, cultural identity, xenophobia

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Authors: Kopal Verma, Umesh C. Kulshrestha

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India is a rural major country and majority of rural population is dependent on burning of biomass as fuel for domestic cooking on traditional stoves (Chullahs) and heating purposes. This results into indoor air pollution and ultimately affects health of the residents. Still, a very small fraction of rural population has been benefitted by the facilities of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) cylinders. Different regions of country follow different methods and use different type of biomass for cooking. So in order to study the differences in cooking practices and resulting indoor air pollution, this study was carried out in two rural areas of India viz. Budhwada, Madhya Pradesh and Baggi, Himachal Pradesh. Both the regions have significant differences in terms of topography, culture and daily practices. Budhwada lies in plain area and Baggi belongs to hilly terrain. The study of carbonaceous aerosols was carried out in four different houses of each village. The residents were asked to bring slight change in their practices by cooking only with biomass (BB) then with a mix of biomass and LPG (BL) and then finally only with LPG (LP). It was found that in BB, average values of organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) were 28% and 44% lower in Budhwada than in Baggi whereas a reverse trend was found where OC and EC was respectively more by 56% and 26% with BL and by 54% and 29% with LP in Budhwada than in Baggi. Although, a significant reduction was found both in Budhwada (OC by 49% and EC by 34%) as well as in Baggi (OC by 84% and EC by 73%) when cooking was shifted from BB to LP. The OC/EC ratio was much higher for Budhwada (BB=9.9; BL=2.5; LP=6.1) than for Baggi (BB=1.7; BL=1.6; LP=1.3). The correlation in OC and EC was found to be excellent in Baggi (r²=0.93) and relatively poor in Budhwada (r²=0.65). A questionnaire filled by the residents suggested that they agree to the health benefits of using LPG over biomass burning but the challenges of supply of LPG and changing the prevailing tradition of cooking on Chullah are making it difficult for them to make this shift.

Keywords: biomass burning, elemental carbon, liquefied petroluem gas, organic carbon

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Authors: Sophie Laurence, Catherine Rivard

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The assessment of acquired language disorders in the adult population, whether for a bilingual or monolingual adult, is a complex process that requires the speech-language pathologist (SLP) to make a judicious choice when selecting the assessment method and tools. However, this task is even more complex with Ontario's bilingual population due to the lack of linguistically and culturally appropriate tools for this population. Numerous researches examined language assessment of the pediatric bilingual population; however, few studies have focused on assessing acquired language disorders in bilingual adults. This study's main objective is to identify the challenges that SLPs encounter when assessing language in the bilingual English-French adult population in Ontario to ultimately be able to serve this population in the future better. An online questionnaire was made available to 1325 members of the College of Audiologists and Speech-Language Pathologists of Ontario (CASLPO) who work with the adult population. The answers to this questionnaire (n = 71) allowed us to identify the tools and strategies most commonly used by SLPs in current practice, identify the assessment challenges faced by SLPs, and determine the causes of these challenges as well as potential solutions. In an English and French assessment, the Western Aphasia Battery, the Boston Diagnostic Aphasia Examination, and the Boston Naming Test were the three tools that respondents deemed to be the most relevant for the assessment. Besides, the results revealed that limited access to SLPs and interpreters who speak the client's language and the lack of standardized and normalized assessment tools for Ontario's French-speaking and bilingual English-French clientele are at the heart of the challenges of current SLP practice. Consistent with these findings, respondents highlighted two potential solutions to address these challenges: SLPs have access to standardized/normalized tools for the population under study and better access to SLPs and interpreters who speak the client's language.

Keywords: assessment, acquired language disorders, bilingualism, speech-Language pathology, adult population

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Authors: Elena Arquer Cuenca

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The gypsy community has been a mistreated and rejected group since its arrival in the Iberian Peninsula in the 15th century. At present, despite being the largest ethnic minority group in Spain as well as in Europe, the different legal and social initiatives in favour of equality continue to suffer discrimination by the general society. This has fostered a strengthening of the endogroup accompanied by cultural conservatism as a form of self-protection. Despite the current trend of normalization of sexual diversity in modern societies, LGB people continue to suffer discrimination, especially in more traditional environments or communities. This rejection for reasons of sexual orientation within the family or community can hinder the free development of the person and compromise peaceful coexistence. The present work is intended as an approach to the attitudes of the gypsy population towards non-heterosexual sexual orientation. The objective is none other than ‘to know the appreciation that the gypsy population has about homosexual sex-affective relationships, in order to assess whether this has any impact on family and community coexistence’. The following specific objectives are derived from this general objective: ‘To find out whether there is a relationship between the dichotomous Roma gender system and the acceptance/rejection of homosexuality’; ‘to analyse whether sexual orientation has an impact on the coexistence of the Roman family and community’; ‘to analyse whether the historical discrimination suffered by the Roman population favours the maintenance of the patriarchal heterosexual reproductive family’; and lastly ‘to explore whether ICTs have promoted the process of normalisation and/or acceptance of homosexuality within the Roma community’. In order to achieve these objectives, a bibliographical and documentary review has been used, as well as the semi-structured interview technique, in which 4 gypsy people participated (2 women and 2 men of different ages). One of the main findings was the inappropriateness of the use of the homogenising category "Gypsy People" at present, given the great diversity among the Roma communities. Moreover, the difficulty in accepting homosexuality seems to be related to the fact that the heterosexual reproductive family has been the main survival mechanism of Roma communities over centuries. However, it will be concluded that attitudes towards homosexuality will vary depending on the socio-economic and cultural context and factors such as age or professed religion. Three main contributions of this research are: firstly, the inclusion of sexual orientation as a variable to be considered when analysing peaceful coexistence; secondly socio-historical dynamics and structures of inequality have been taken into account when analysing Roma attitudes towards homosexuality; and finally, the processual nature of socio-cultural changes has also been considered.

Keywords: gender, homosexuality, ICTs, peaceful coexistence, Roma community, sexual orientation

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Authors: Tokuei Sako, Paul-Antoine Hervieux

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The energy-level structure of a pair of electron and positron confined in a quasi-one-dimensional nano-scale potential well has been investigated focusing on its trend in the small limit of confinement strength ω, namely, the Wigner molecular regime. An anisotropic Gaussian-type basis functions supplemented by high angular momentum functions as large as l = 19 has been used to obtain reliable full configuration interaction (FCI) wave functions. The resultant energy spectrum shows a band structure characterized by ω for the large ω regime whereas for the small ω regime it shows an energy-level pattern dominated by excitation into the in-phase motion of the two particles. The observed trend has been rationalized on the basis of the nodal patterns of the FCI wave functions.

Keywords: confined systems, positron, wave function, Wigner molecule, quantum dots

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Authors: Mengjia Zhi, Xingmei Wei, Xiang Gao, Shiyang Liu, Zhiran Huang, Li Yang, Jing Sun

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Background: To understand the consumption trend of opioid analgesics and the consumption adequacy of opioid analgesic treatment for moderate to severe pain in China, as well as the pain control level of China with international perspective. Importance: To author’s best knowledge, this is the first study in China to measure the adequacy of opioid analgesic treatment for moderate to severe pain considering disease pattern and with the standardized pain treatment guideline. Methods: A retrospective analysis was carried out to show the consumption frequency (daily defined doses, DDDs) of opioid analgesics and its trend in China from 2006 to 2016. Adequacy of consumption measure (ACM) was used to measure the number of needed morphine equivalents and the overall adequacy of opioid analgesic treatment of moderate to severe pain in China, and compared with international data. Results: The consumption frequency of opioid analgesics (DDDs) in China increased from 13,200,000 DDDs in 2006 to 44,200,000 DDDs in 2016, and showed an increasing trend. The growth rate was faster at first, especially in 2013, then slowed down, decreased slightly in 2015. The ACM of China increased from 0.0032 in 2006 to 0.0074 in 2016, with an overall trend of growth. The ACM level of China has been always a very poor level during 2006-2016. Conclusion: The consumption of opioid analgesics for the treatment of moderate to severe pain in China has always been inadequate. There is a huge gap between China and the international level. There are many reasons behind this problem, which lie in different aspects, including medical staff, patients and the public, health systems and social & cultural aspects. It is necessary to strengthen the training and education of medical staff and the patients, to use mass media to disseminate scientific knowledge of pain management, to encourage communications between doctors and patients, to improve regulatory system for the controlled medicines and the overall health systems, and to balance the regulatory goal for avoidance of abuse, and the social goal of meeting the increasing needs of the people for better life.

Keywords: opioid analgesics, adequate consumption measure, pain control, China

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Authors: Mingsiang Chen

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The increasing transactions among countries worldwide have brought about a trend of comparative law research in the legal community. An important branch of legal research, i.e., constitutional law, is no exception to the trend. The comparative study of constitutional law takes various forms, and one of these is to study the use of foreign law by constitutional courts. There are, in essence, three sources of foreign law usually used by constitutional courts: foreign constitutions, decisions by foreign constitutional courts, and legal theories developed by foreign scholars. There are two types of using foreign law by constitutional courts: citing any of the forenamed sources for reference purpose, ruling based on the contents or logic of any of the forenamed sources. This paper examines all the decisions handed down by the Constitutional Court of Taiwan from 1990 to 2017. Its purpose is to seek out the occasions, the extent, the significance, and the approach of such usage.

Keywords: comparative constitutional law, constitutional court, judicial review, Taiwan judiciary

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Authors: Raja Kannusamy

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The research focuses on the applicable technologies in the automobile industry and their effects on the productivity and annual revenue of the industry. A study has been conducted on 6 major automobile manufacturing industries represented in this research as M1, M2, M3, M4, M5 and M6. The results indicate that M1, which is a pioneer in technological applications, remains the market leader, followed by M5 & M2 taking the second and third positions, respectively. M3, M6 and M4 are the followers and are placed next in positions. It has also been observed that M1 and M2 have entered into an agreement to share the basic structural technologies and they maintain long-term and trusted relationships with their suppliers through the Keiretsu system. With technological giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Uber and Google entering the automobile industry in recent years, an upward trend is expected in the futuristic market with self-driving cars to dominate the automobile sector. To keep up with the market trend, it is essential for automobile manufacturers to understand the importance of developing technological capabilities and skills to be competitive in the marketplace.

Keywords: automobile manufacturing industries, competitiveness, performance improvement, technological applications

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Authors: Vidishaa Jali, Amit Sinha, Kameshwar Prasad

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Background and Objective: Cerebral microbleeds are frequently found in healthy elderly individuals. We performed a meta- analysis to determine the prevalence of cerebral microbleeds in apparently healthy, elderly population and to determine the effect of age, smoking and hypertension on the occurrence of cerebral microbleeds. Methods: Relevant literature was searched using electronic databases such as MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, Cochrane database, Google scholar to identify studies on the prevalence of cerebral microbleeds in general elderly population till March 2016. STATA version 13 software was used for analysis. Fixed effect model was used if heterogeneity was less than 50%. Otherwise, random effect model was used. Meta- regression analysis was performed to check any effect of important variables such as age, smoking, hypertension. Selection Criteria: We included cross-sectional studies performed in apparently healthy elderly population, who had age more than 50 years. Results: The pooled proportion of cerebral microbleeds in healthy population is 12% (95% CI, 0.11 to 0.13). No significant effect of age was found on the prevalence of cerebral microbleeds (p= 0.99). A linear relationship between increase in hypertension and the prevalence of cerebral microbleeds was found, however, this linear relationship was not statistically significant (p=0.16). Similarly, A linear relationship between increase in smoking and the prevalence of cerebral microbleeds was found, however, this linear relationship was also not statistically significant (p=0.21). Conclusion: Presence of cerebral microbleeds is evident in apparently healthy, elderly population, in more than 10% of individuals.

Keywords: apparently healthy, elderly, prevalence, cerebral microbleeds

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Authors: Syed Ali Taqi, Muhammad Ismail

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A comparative study of estimators of population means in two phase sampling in the presence of non-response when Unknown population means of the auxiliary variable(s) and incomplete information of study variable y as well as of auxiliary variable(s) is made. Three real data sets of University students, hospital and unemployment are used for comparison of all the available techniques in two phase sampling in the presence of non-response with the newly generalized ratio estimators.

Keywords: two-phase sampling, ratio estimator, product estimator, generalized estimators

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Authors: Iman Shabanzadeh

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Over the last three decades, the main demands of the Iranian workforce have been focused on three areas: "The right to a decent wage", "The right to organize" and "The right to job security". In order to investigate and analyze this situation, the present study focuses on the component of job security. The purpose of the study is to figure out what mechanisms in Iran's Labor Law have led to the destabilization and undermining of workers' job security. The research method is descriptive-analytical. To collect information, library and document sources in the field of laws related to labor rights in Iran and, semi-structured interviews with experts have been used. In the data analysis stage, the qualitative content analysis method was also used. The trend analysis of the statistics related to the labor force situation in Iran in the last three decades shows that the employment structure has been facing an increase in the active population, but in the last decade, a large part of this population has been mainly active in the service sector, and contract-free enterprises, so a smaller share of this employment has insurance coverage and a larger share has underemployment. In this regard, the results of this study show that four contexts have been proposed as the main legal and executive mechanisms of labor instability in Iran, which are: 1) temporaryization of the labor force by providing different interpretations of labor law, 2) adjustment labor in the public sector and the emergence of manpower contracting companies, 3) the cessation of labor law protection of workers in small workshops and 4) the existence of numerous restrictions on the effective organization of workers. The theoretical conclusion of this article is that the main root of the challenges of the labor society and the destabilized workforce in Iran is the existence of structural inequalities in the field of labor security, whose traces can be seen in the legal provisions and executive regulations of this field.

Keywords: inequality, precariat, temporaryization, labor force, labor law

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Authors: Nino Abesadze, Marine Mindorashvili, Nino Paresashvili

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The main purpose of the article is to make complex statistical analysis of tourist expenses of foreign visitors. We used mixed technique of selection that implies rules of random and proportional selection. Computer software SPSS was used to compute statistical data for corresponding analysis. Corresponding methodology of tourism statistics was implemented according to international standards. Important information was collected and grouped from the major Georgian airports. Techniques of statistical observation were prepared. A representative population of foreign visitors and a rule of selection of respondents were determined. We have a trend of growth of tourist numbers and share of tourists from post-soviet countries constantly increases. Level of satisfaction with tourist facilities and quality of service has grown, but still we have a problem of disparity between quality of service and prices. The design of tourist expenses of foreign visitors is diverse; competitiveness of tourist products of Georgian tourist companies is higher.

Keywords: tourist, expenses, methods, statistics, analysis

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Authors: Dimpy Shah

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The global economy has substantially changed in last three decades. Now almost all markets are transparent and visible for global customers. The corporates are now no more reliant on local markets for trade. The information technology revolution has changed business dynamics and marketing practices of corporate. The markets are divided into two different formats: traditional and virtual. In very short span of time, many e-commerce portals have captured global market. This strategy is well supported by global delivery system of multinational logistic companies. Now the markets are dealing with global supply chain networks, which are more demand driven and customer oriented. The corporate have realized importance of supply chain integration and marketing in this competitive environment. The Indian markets are also significantly affected with all these changes. In terms of population, India is in second place after China. In terms of demography, almost half of the population is of youth. It has been observed that the Indian youth are more inclined towards e-commerce and prefer to buy goods from web portal. Initially, this trend was observed in Indian service sector, textile and electronic goods and now further extended in other product categories. The FMCG companies have also recognized this change and started integration of their supply chain with e-commerce platform. This paper attempts to understand contemporary marketing practices of corporate in e-commerce business in Indian food and beverages segment and also tries to identify innovative marketing practices for proper execution of their strategies. The findings are mainly focused on supply chain re-integration and brand building strategies with proper utilization of social media.

Keywords: FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods), ISCM (Integrated supply chain management), RFID (Radio Frequency Identification), traditional and virtual formats

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Authors: Hanadi Mohamed Shawgi Gamal, Claus Thomas Bues

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Wood density is a variable influencing many of the technological and quality properties of wood. Understanding the pattern of wood density radial variation is important for its end-use. The X-ray technique, traditionally applied to softwood species to assess the wood quality properties, due to its simple and relatively uniform wood structure. On the other hand, very limited information is available about the validation of using this technique for hardwood species. The suitability of using the X-ray technique for the determination of hardwood density has a special significance in countries like Sudan, where only a few timbers are well known. This will not only save the time consumed by using the traditional methods, but it will also enhance the investigations of the great number of the lesser known species, the thing which will fill the huge cap of lake information of hardwood species growing in Sudan. The current study aimed to evaluate the validation of using the X-ray densitometry technique to determine the radial variation of wood density of Acacia seyal var. seyal. To this, a total of thirty trees were collected randomly from four states in Sudan. The wood density radial trend was determined using the basic density as well as density obtained by the X-ray densitometry method in order to assess the validation of X-ray technique in wood density radial variation determination. The results showed that the pattern of radial trend of density obtained by X-ray technique is very similar to that achieved by basic density. These results confirmed the validation of using the X-ray technique for Acacia seyal var. seyal density radial trend determination. It also promotes the suitability of using this method in other hardwood species.

Keywords: x-ray densitometry, wood density, Acacia seyal var. seyal, radial variation

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Authors: Yue Hao

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COVID-19 vaccines not only protect individuals but society as a whole. In this case, having an understanding of the change and trend of vaccination conditions may shed some light on revising and making up-to-date policies regarding large-scale public health promotions and calls in order to lead and encourage the adoption of COVID-19 vaccines. However, vaccination status change over time and vary from place to place hidden patterns that were not fully explored in previous research. In our research, we took advantage of the spatial-temporal analytical methods in the domain of geographic information science and captured the spatial-temporal changes regarding COVID-19 vaccination status in the United States during 2020 and 2021. After conducting the emerging hot spots analysis on both the state level data of the US and county level data of California we found that: (1) at the macroscopic level, there is a continuously increasing trend of the vaccination rate in the US, but there is a variance on the spatial clusters at county level; (2) spatial hotspots and clusters with high vaccination amount over time were clustered around the west and east coast in regions like California and New York City where are densely populated with considerable economy conditions; (3) in terms of the growing trend of the daily vaccination among, Los Angeles County alone has very high statistics and dramatic increases over time. We hope that our findings can be valuable guidance for supporting future decision-making regarding vaccination policies as well as directing new research on relevant topics.

Keywords: COVID-19 vaccine, GIS, space time cube, spatial-temporal analysis

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Authors: Prashant Verma, K. K. Singh, Anjali Singh, Ujjaval Srivastava

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Contraceptive policies have been derived to achieve desired reductions in the growth rate and also, applied to the data of Uttar-Pradesh, India for illustration. Using the Lotka’s integral equation for the stable population, expressions for the proportion of contraceptive users at different ages have been obtained. At the age of 20 years, 42% of contraceptive users is imperative to reduce the present annual growth rate of 0.036 to 0.02, assuming that 40% of the contraceptive users discontinue at the age of 25 years and 30% again continue contraceptive use at age 30 years. Further, presuming that 75% of women start using contraceptives at the age of 23 years, and 50% of the remaining women start using contraceptives at the age of 28 years, while the rest of them start using it at the age of 32 years. If we set a minimum age of marriage as 20 years, a reduction of 0.019 in growth rate will be obtained. This study describes how the level of contraceptive use at different age groups of women reduces the growth rate in the state of Uttar Pradesh. The article also promotes delayed marriage in the region.

Keywords: child bearing, contraceptive devices, contraceptive policies, population growth, stable population

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Authors: N. Hoosain, S. Nene, B. Pearce, C. Jacobs, M. Du Plessis, M. Benjeddou

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Organic Cation Transporters play a vital role in the absorption, tissue distribution and elimination of various substrates. Numerous studies have suggested that variations in non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of SLC22A2 could influence an individual’s response to various treatments, including clinically important drugs. This study is the first to determine the baseline frequency distribution for twenty SNPs of SLC22A2in the Zulu population. DNA was collected from 101 unrelated “healthy” Zulu participants. Genotypes of all samples were determined using a multiplex PCR and SNaPshot assay followed by the generation of the haplotype structure. This is the first time that the baseline frequency distribution of SNPs is reported for the Zulu population. Data from this study could be used in in vitro and in vivo pharmacogenetic and pharmacokinetic studies to evaluate the potential role the studied SNPs play in the therapeutic efficacy of clinically important drugs.

Keywords: SLC22A2 gene, SNaPshot assay, PCR, Zulu population

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Authors: Obaid Alotaibi

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The geographical location of the State of Kuwait contributed significantly to the suffering of Kuwait in the past, due to the scarcity of natural water resources and the inability of the State's financial resources to provide other water resources to meet the needs of the population. The problem of water scarcity in Kuwait remained until the beginning of the second half of the twentieth century, as the country's economic conditions revived with the emergence and export of oil; which was clearly reflected in the steady growth of the population. To cope with this population, increase, it was necessary to expand the various development programs to include all sectors of the state. The process of development and urbanization could not start without finding solutions to the problem of water shortage in Kuwait. The only option for officials to meet the needs of the population and the different sectors of water development is the desalination of seawater. This process necessitated the establishment of six desalination plants along the coast of Kuwait and extended freshwater arteries to reach everywhere on the land. However, this does not mean that the problem of water shortage has been completely solved. The desalination plants are not meeting the country's future water needs, especially considering the increasing population growth. These stations are nearing completion and they need to be replaced, renovation and maintenance, require significant expenses. Therefore, it was necessary for scientific research to address the issue of water in Kuwait, whether in the field of development of existing resources or in the field of rationalization of consumption and protection of available resources. The study focused on how to address the increasing demand for water resulting from population increase, the impact of water on economic and social development, the prospects of water resources in Kuwait and its ability to meet the needs of the country by 2030.

Keywords: economic, development, Kuwait, social, water resources

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Authors: Chin-Pin, Chen, Shi-Chi, Shiao, Ting-Hao, Lin

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Current industry is facing the rapid development of new technology in the world and fierce changes of economic environment in the society so that the industry development trend gradually does not focus on labor, but leads the industry and the academic circle with innovation and creativity. The development trend in machinery industry presents the same situation. Based on the aim of Creativity White Paper, Ministry of Education in Taiwan promotes and develops various creativity contests to cope with the industry trend. Domestic students and enterprises have good performance on domestic and international creativity contests in recent years. There must be important creative elements in such creative works to win the award among so many works. Literature review and in-depth interview with five creativity contest awarded instructors are first proceeded to conclude 15 machinery creative elements, which are further compared with the creative elements of machinery awarded creative works in past five years to understand the relationship between awarded works and creative elements. The statistical analysis results show that IDEA (Industrial Design Excellence Award) contains the most creative elements among four major international creativity contests. That is, most creativity review focuses on creative elements that are comparatively stricter. Concerning the groups participating in creativity contests, enterprises consider more creative elements of the creative works than other two elements for contests. From such contest works, creative elements of “replacement or improvement”, “convenience”, and “modeling” present higher significance. It is expected that the above findings could provide domestic colleges and universities with reference for participating in creativity related contests in the future.

Keywords: machinery, creative elements, creativity contest, creativity works

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Authors: Ali Razmi, Saeed Golian

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Climate change is known to have the potential to impact adversely hydrologic patterns for variables such as rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and sea level rise. Long-term average of these climate variables could possibly change over time due to climate change impacts. In this study, trend analysis was performed on rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and water level data of a coastal area in Manhattan, New York City, Central Park and Battery Park stations to investigate if there is a significant change in the data mean. Partial Man-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. Frequency analysis was then performed on data using common probability distribution functions such as Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), normal, log-normal and log-Pearson. Goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov are used to determine the most appropriate distributions. In flood frequency analysis, rainfall and water level data are often separately investigated. However, in determining flood zones, simultaneous consideration of rainfall and water level in frequency analysis could have considerable effect on floodplain delineation (flood extent and depth). The present study aims to perform flood frequency analysis considering joint probability distribution for rainfall and storm surge. First, correlation between the considered variables was investigated. Joint probability distribution of extreme water level and temperature was also investigated to examine how global warming could affect sea level flooding impacts. Copula functions were fitted to data and joint probability of water level with rainfall and temperature for different recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, 600 and 1000 was determined and compared with the severity of individual events. Results for trend analysis showed increase in long-term average of data that could be attributed to climate change impacts. GEV distribution was found as the most appropriate function to be fitted to the extreme climate variables. The results for joint probability distribution analysis confirmed the necessity for incorporation of both rainfall and water level data in flood frequency analysis.

Keywords: climate change, climate variables, copula, joint probability

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Authors: Muhammad Fiaz, Muhammad Saqlain, Abid Mahmood, S. M. Saqlan Naqvi, Rizwan Aziz Qazi, Ghazala Kaukab Raja

Abstract:

Background: Metabolic Syndrome is a clustering of multiple risk factors including central obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia and hyperglycemia. These risk phenotypes of metabolic syndrome (MetS) prevalent world-wide, Therefore we aimed to identify the frequency of risk phenotypes among metabolic syndrome subjects in local adult Pakistani population. Methods: Screening of subjects visiting out-patient department of medicine, Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Medical University, Islamabad was performed to assess the occurrence of risk phenotypes among MetS subjects in Pakistani population. The Metabolic Syndrome was defined based on International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria. Anthropometric and biochemical assay results were recorded. Data was analyzed using SPSS software (16.0). Results: Our results showed that dyslipidemia (31.50%) and hyperglycemia (30.50%) was most population specific risk phenotypes of MetS. The results showed the order of association of metabolic risk phenotypes to MetS as follows hyperglycemia>dyslipidemia>obesity >hypertension. Conclusion: The hyperglycemia and dyslipidemia were found be the major risk phenotypes among the MetS subjects and have greater chances of deceloping MetS among Pakistani Population.

Keywords: dyslipidemia, hypertention, metabolic syndrome, obesity

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Authors: Somdech Rungsrisawat

Abstract:

The purposes of this research are to investigate Thai teens’ attitude toward prostitution on the internet, to discover the causes of teenage prostitution and to study the relationship between teenage promiscuity and the causes of teenage prostitution. This study is a mixed research which utilized both qualitative and quantitative approach. The population of this study included teenagers and early adults between 14-21 years old who were studying in high schools, colleges, or universities. A total of 600 respondents was sampled for interviews using a questionnaire, and 48 samples were chosen for an in-depth interview. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents recognized that teenage prostitution on line was real. The reasons for choosing the internet to contact with customers included easy, convenient, safe, and anonymous. Moreover, the internet allowed teen prostitutes to contact customers anywhere and anytime. The correlation showed that promiscuity was related to the trend of teen prostitution. Other factors that contributed to increasing widespread teen prostitution online included their need for quick money to buy luxurious products and to support their extravagant behavior.

Keywords: internet, prostitutes, online, Thai teens

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

Abstract:

A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: Pooja Ahuja, Tejal Bhutani, M. S. Dahiya

Abstract:

Cheiloscopy, the study of lip prints, is a tool in forensic investigation technique that deals with identification of individuals based on lips patterns. The objective of this study is to determine predominant lip print pattern found among the Gujarati population, to evaluate whether any sex difference exists and to study the permanence of the pattern over six months duration. The study comprised of 100 healthy individuals (50 males and 50 females), in the age group of 18 to 25 years of Gujarati population of the Gandhinagar region of the Gujarat state, India. By using Suzuki and Tsuchihashi classification, Lip prints were then divided into four quadrants and also classified on the basis of peripheral shape of the lips. Materials used to record the lip prints were dark brown colored lipstick, cellophane tape, and white bond paper. Lipstick was applied uniformly, and lip prints were taken on the glued portion of cellophane tape and then stuck on to a white bond paper. These lip prints were analyzed with magnifying lens and virtually with stereo microscope. On the analysis of the subject population, results showed Branched pattern Type II (29.57 percentage) to be most predominant in the Gujarati population. Branched pattern Type II (35.60 percentage) and long vertical Type I (28.28 percentage) were most prevalent in males and females respectively and large full lips were most predominantly present in both the sexes. The study concludes that lip prints in any form can be an effective tool for identification of an individual in a closed or open group forms.

Keywords: cheiloscopy, lip pattern, predomianant, Gujarati population

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Authors: Deniz Peksen

Abstract:

This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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