Search results for: poetic inference

Authors: Amin Nezarat, Naeime Seifadini

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Trip mode selection is a behavioral characteristic of passengers with immense importance for travel demand analysis, transportation planning, and traffic management. Identification of trip mode distribution will allow transportation authorities to adopt appropriate strategies to reduce travel time, traffic and air pollution. The majority of existing trip mode inference models operate based on human selected features and traditional machine learning algorithms. However, human selected features are sensitive to changes in traffic and environmental conditions and susceptible to personal biases, which can make them inefficient. One way to overcome these problems is to use neural networks capable of extracting high-level features from raw input. In this study, the convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture is used to predict the trip mode distribution based on raw GPS trajectory data. The key innovation of this paper is the design of the layout of the input layer of CNN as well as normalization operation, in a way that is not only compatible with the CNN architecture but can also represent the fundamental features of motion including speed, acceleration, jerk, and Bearing rate. The highest prediction accuracy achieved with the proposed configuration for the convolutional neural network with batch normalization is 85.26%.

Keywords: predicting, deep learning, neural network, urban trip

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Authors: Muhammad Umar Hassan

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Renal cell carcinoma is a subset of kidney cancer that arises in the lining of DCT and is present in parenchymal tissue. Diagnosis is based on lab reports, including urinalysis, renal function tests (RFTs), and electrolyte balance, along with imaging techniques. Organ failure and other complications have been commonly observed in these cases. Over the years, the presentation of patients has varied, so carcinoma was classified on the basis of site, shape, and consistency for detailed analysis. Lifestyle patterns and occupational history were inquired about and recorded. Methods: Data from 100 patients presenting to the oncology and nephrology department of Mayo Hospital in the year 2015-2020 were included in this retrospective study on a random basis. The study was specifically focused on three risk factors. Smoking, occupational exposures, and Hakim medicine are taken by the patient for any cause. After procurement of data, follow-up contacts of these patients were established, resulting in a detailed analysis of lifestyle. Conclusion: The inference drawn is a direct causal link between smoking, industrial workplace exposure, and Hakim medicine with the development of Renal Cell Carcinoma. It was shown in the majority of the patients and hence confirmed our hypothesis.

Keywords: renal cell carcinoma, kidney cancer, clear cell carcinoma

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Authors: Mohammad Sheikhalishahi, Vahid Ebrahimipour, Amir Hossein Radman-Kian

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This paper proposes an Ontology framework for knowledge modeling and representation of the equipment integrity process in a typical oil and gas production plant. Our aim is to construct a knowledge modeling that facilitates translation, interpretation, and conversion of human-readable integrity interpretation into computer-readable representation. The framework provides a function structure related to fault propagation using ISO 14224 and ISO 15926 OWL-Lite/ Resource Description Framework (RDF) to obtain a generic system-level model of asset integrity that can be utilized in the integrity engineering process during the equipment life cycle. It employs standard terminology developed by ISO 15926 and ISO 14224 to map textual descriptions of equipment failure and then convert it to a causality-driven logic by semantic interpretation and computer-based representation using Lite/RDF. The framework applied for an offshore gas riser. The result shows that the approach can cross-link the failure-related integrity words and domain-specific logic to obtain a representation structure of equipment integrity with causality inference based on semantic extraction of inspection report context.

Keywords: asset integrity modeling, interoperability, OWL, RDF/XML

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Authors: Vimala Rani P, Narasimha Malikarjunan, Mercy Shalinie S

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Data Networking was brought forth as an instantiation of information-centric networking. The attackers can send a colossal number of spoofs to take hold of the Pending Interest Table (PIT) named an Interest Flooding attack (IFA) since the in- interests are recorded in the PITs of the intermediate routers until they receive corresponding Data Packets are go beyond the time limit. These attacks can be detrimental to network performance. PIT expiration rate or the Interest satisfaction rate, which cannot differentiate the IFA from attacks, is the criterion Traditional IFA detection techniques are concerned with. Threshold values can casually affect Threshold-based traditional methods. This article proposes an accurate IFA detection mechanism based on a Multiple Feature-based Extreme Learning Machine (MF-ELM). Accuracy of the attack detection can be increased by presenting the entropy of Internet names, Interest satisfaction rate and PIT usage as features extracted in the MF-ELM classifier. Furthermore, we deploy a queue-based hostile Interest prefix mitigation mechanism. The inference of this real-time test bed is that the mechanism can help the network to resist IFA with higher accuracy and efficiency.

Keywords: information-centric network, pending interest table, interest flooding attack, MF-ELM classifier, queue-based mitigation strategy

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Authors: Verarisa Ujung

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The Anthropocene – as scientists define as a new geological epoch where human intervention has the dominant influence on the geological, atmospheric, and ecological processes challenges the contemporary discourse in architecture and interior. The dominant influence characterises the incapability to distinguish the notion of nature, subnature, human and non-human. Consequently, living in the Anthropocene demands sensitivity and responsiveness to heighten our sense of the rhythm of transformation and recognition of our environment as a product of natural, social and historical processes. The notion of subnature is particularly emphasised in this paper to investigate the poetic sense of living with subnature. It could be associated with the critical tool for exploring the aesthetic and programmatic implications of subnature on interiority. The ephemeral immaterial attached to subnature promotes the sense of atmospheric delineation of interiority, the very inner significance of body-surface interaction, which central to interior architecture discourse. This would then reflect human’s activities; examine the transformative change, the architectural motion and the traces that left between moments. In this way, engaging the notion of subnature enable us to better understand the critical subject on interiority and might provide an in-depth study on interior architecture. Incorporating the exploration on the form, materiality, and pattern of subnature, this research seeks to grasp the inner significance of micro to macro approaches so that the future of interior might be compelled to depend more on the investigation and development of responsive environment. To reflect upon the form, materiality and intensity of subnature that specifically characterized by the natural, social and historical processes, this research examines a volcanic land, White Island/Whakaari, New Zealand as the chosen site of investigation. Emitting various forms and intensities of subnatures - smokes, mud, sulphur gas, this volcanic land also open to the new inhabitation within the sulphur factory ruins that reflects human’s past occupation. In this way, temporal and natural selected manifestations of materiality, artefact, and performance can be traced out and might reveal the meaningful relations among space, inhabitation, and well-being of inhabitants in the Anthropocene.

Keywords: anthropocene, body, intensification, intensity, interior architecture, subnature, surface

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Authors: They Shao Peng

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Machine vision system for inspection is an automated technology that is normally utilized to analyze items on the production line for quality control purposes, it also can be known as an automated visual inspection (AVI) system. By applying automated visual inspection, the existence of items, defects, contaminants, flaws, and other irregularities in manufactured products can be easily detected in a short time and accurately. However, AVI systems are still inflexible and expensive due to their uniqueness for a specific task and consuming a lot of set-up time and space. With the rapid development of mobile devices, smartphones can be an alternative device for the visual system to solve the existing problems of AVI. Since the smartphone-based AVI system is still at a nascent stage, this led to the motivation to investigate the smartphone-based AVI system. This study is aimed to provide a low-cost AVI system with high efficiency and flexibility. In this project, the object detection models, which are You Only Look Once (YOLO) model and Single Shot MultiBox Detector (SSD) model, are trained, evaluated, and integrated with the smartphone and webcam devices. The performance of the smartphone-based AVI is compared with the webcam-based AVI according to the precision and inference time in this study. Additionally, a mobile application is developed which allows users to implement real-time object detection and object detection from image storage.

Keywords: automated visual inspection, deep learning, machine vision, mobile application

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Authors: Caroline Kim

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The designation autism spectrum disorder (ASD) groups complex disorders in the development of the brain. Autism is defined essentially as a condition in which an individual lacks a theory of mind. The theory of mind, in this sense, explains the ability of an individual to attribute feelings, emotions, or thoughts to another person. An autistic patient is characteristically unable to determine what an interlocutor is feeling, or to understand the beliefs of others. However, it is possible that autism cannot plausibly characterized as the lack of theory of mind in an individual. Genes, the bran, and its interplay with environmental factors may also cause autism. A mutation in a gene may be hereditary, or instigated by diseases such as mumps. Though an autistic patient may experience abnormalities in the cerebellum and the cortical regions, these are in fact only possible theories as to a biochemical explanation behind the disability. The prevailing theory identifying autism with lacking the theory of mind is supported by behavioral observation, but this form of observation is itself determined by socially constructed standards, limiting the possibility for empirical verification. The theory of mind infers that the beliefs and emotions of people are causally based on their behavior. This paper demonstrates the fallacy of this inference, critiquing its basis in socially constructed values, and arguing instead for a biochemical approach free from the conceptual apparatus of language and social expectation.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, sociology of psychology, social construction, the theory of mind

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Authors: Kuixi Du, Thomas J. Lipscomb

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The proficiency in Mathematics skills is fundamental to success in the STEM disciplines. In the US, beginning college students who are placed in remedial/developmental Mathematics courses frequently struggle to achieve academic success. Therefore, Mathematics remediation in college has become an important concern, and providing Mathematics remediation is a prevalent way to help the students who may not be fully prepared for college-level courses. Programs vary, however, and the effectiveness of a particular remedial Mathematics program must be empirically demonstrated. The purpose of this study was to apply the sharp regression discontinuity (RD) technique to determine the effectiveness of the Jack Leaps Summer (JLS) Mathematic remediation program in supporting improved Mathematics learning outcomes among newly admitted Mathematics students in the South Dakota State University. The researchers studied the newly admitted Fall 2019 cohort of Mathematics majors (n=423). The results indicated that students whose pretest score was lower than the cut-off point and who were assigned to the JLS program experienced significantly higher scores on the post-test (Math 101 final score). Based on these results, there is evidence that the JLS program is effective in meeting its primary objective.

Keywords: causal inference, mathematisc remedial program evaluation, quasi-experimental research design, regression discontinuity design, cohort studies

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Authors: Ruchi Makani, B. V. R. Reddy

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Mobile Adhoc Networks (MANETs) are gaining popularity due to their potential of providing low-cost mobile connectivity solutions to real-world communication problems. Integrating Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) in MANETs is a tedious task by reason of its distinctive features such as dynamic topology, de-centralized authority and highly controlled/limited resource environment. IDS primarily use automated soft-computing techniques to monitor the inflow/outflow of traffic packets in a given network to detect intrusion. Use of machine learning techniques in IDS enables system to make decisions on intrusion while continuous keep learning about their dynamic environment. An appropriate IDS model is essential to be selected to expedite this application challenges. Thus, this paper focused on fuzzy-logic based machine learning IDS technique for MANETs and presented their applicability for achieving effectiveness in identifying the intrusions. Further, the selection of appropriate protocol attributes and fuzzy rules generation plays significant role for accuracy of the fuzzy-logic based IDS, have been discussed. This paper also presents the critical attributes of MANET’s routing protocol and its applicability in fuzzy logic based IDS.

Keywords: AODV, mobile adhoc networks, intrusion detection, anomaly detection, fuzzy logic, fuzzy membership function, fuzzy inference system

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Authors: Amit Kumar, Amanpreet Chander, Ashish Sahani

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This paper presents our recent work on real-time human activity detection based on the media pipe pipeline and machine learning algorithms. The proposed system can detect human activities, including running, jumping, squatting, bending to the left or right, and standing still. This is a robust solution for developing a yoga, dance, metaverse, and fitness application that checks for the correction of the pose without having any additional monitor like a personal trainer. MediaPipe solution offers an open-source cross-platform which utilizes a two-step detector-tracker ML pipeline for live detection of key landmarks on our body which can be used for motion data collection. The prediction of real-time poses uses a variety of machine learning techniques and different types of analysis. Without primarily relying on powerful desktop environments for inference, our method achieves real-time performance on the majority of contemporary mobile phones, desktops/laptops, Python, or even the web. Experimental results show that our method outperforms the existing method in terms of accuracy and real-time capability, achieving an accuracy of 99.92% on testing datasets.

Keywords: human activity detection, media pipe, machine learning, metaverse applications

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Authors: Bipasha Sen, Aditya Agarwal

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Multilingual automatic speech recognition (ASR) system is a single entity capable of transcribing multiple languages sharing a common phone space. Performance of such a system is highly dependent on the compatibility of the languages. State of the art speech recognition systems are built using sequential architectures based on recurrent neural networks (RNN) limiting the computational parallelization in training. This poses a significant challenge in terms of time taken to bootstrap and validate the compatibility of multiple languages for building a robust multilingual system. Complex architectural choices based on self-attention networks are made to improve the parallelization thereby reducing the training time. In this work, we propose Reed, a simple system based on 1D convolutions which uses very short context to improve the training time. To improve the performance of our system, we use raw time-domain speech signals directly as input. This enables the convolutional layers to learn feature representations rather than relying on handcrafted features such as MFCC. We report improvement on training and inference times by atleast a factor of 4x and 7.4x respectively with comparable WERs against standard RNN based baseline systems on SpeechOcean's multilingual low resource dataset.

Keywords: convolutional neural networks, language compatibility, low resource languages, multilingual automatic speech recognition

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Authors: Zameerpal Kaur

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Ecocriticism comes into existence in 1990s, it tries to explore the relationship of literature with the natural world and further it examines the role that natural surroundings and environment play in the minds of the creative writers during their imagination and creative process. The present study is an attempt to focus on the comparative ecocritical analysis of Shiv Kumar Batalvi and Surjit Patar’s selected poetry in the theoretical framework of ecocriticism in order to shed light on the poet’s vigilant views about the relationship of human life and nature. Shiv Kumar Batalvi is a renowned modern Punjabi poet. He is essentially a poet of nature and love. His opinions towards nature support his position to be considered as a major representative of recent environmental issues and ecocritical concerns in Punjabi literature. He is one of the most outstanding modern Punjabi poets, is endowed with the most artistic temperament in whose poetry nature always has a dominating existence. He seems to consciously portray the scenes of natural surroundings into his poetry; in fact the titles of his poems in themselves signify his love for the nature. Surjit Patar, an imminent modern Punjabi poet tries to present a different picture of nature into his poems; he also uses to write poems about contemporary problems. Surjit Patar’s radical quarrel with the modern cultural context makes him reject all the absolutes and finalities in the form of transcendental reason and religion, history and evolution, he freely writes about the deterioration of nature at selfish materialistic society. He is modern poet who weaves the natural imagery with the syntax of his poems. Patar’s work reflects a universal voice that is dribbled with nuanced humanism and a sense of modernity that seemed neither dated, nor trapped in regional boundaries. Through his poetry he has given a voice to the fragile, disrupting borders, disturbing the status quo. An attempt to analyse the poetic works of above said poets from ecocritical perspective as well as especially focussing on various aspects of ecocriticism like ecocentric ethics, ecoaesthetics, anthropomorphism etc. has been made throughout the comparative study of the selected works.

Keywords: anthropocentrism, degradation, environment and literature, nature

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

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This paper discusses the effects of using progressive Type-I right censoring on the design of the Simple Step Accelerated Life testing using Bayesian approach for Weibull life products under the assumption of cumulative exposure model. The optimization criterion used in this paper is to minimize the expected pre-posterior variance of the PTH percentile time of failures. The model variables are the stress changing time and the stress value for the first step. A comparison between the conventional and the progressive Type-I right censoring is provided. The results have shown that the progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of testing on the expense of the test precision when the sample size is small. Moreover, the results have shown that using strong priors or large sample size reduces the sensitivity of the test precision to the censoring proportion. Hence, the progressive Type-I right censoring is recommended in these cases as progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of the test and doesn't affect the precision of the test a lot. Moreover, the results have shown that using direct or indirect priors affects the precision of the test.

Keywords: reliability, accelerated life testing, cumulative exposure model, Bayesian estimation, progressive type-I censoring, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Pui Shan Wong, Kosuke Tashiro, Satoru Kuhara, Sachiyo Aburatani

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Functional genomics and gene regulation inference has readily expanded our knowledge and understanding of gene interactions with regards to expression regulation. With the advancement of transcriptome sequencing in time-series comes the ability to study the sequential changes of the transcriptome. This method presented here works to augment existing regulation networks accumulated in literature with transcriptome data gathered from time-series experiments to construct a sequential representation of transcription factor activity. This method is applied on a time-series RNA-Seq data set from Escherichia coli as it transitions from growth to stationary phase over five hours. Investigations are conducted on the various metabolic activities in gene regulation processes by taking advantage of the correlation between regulatory gene pairs to examine their activity on a dynamic network. Especially, the changes in metabolic activity during phase transition are analyzed with focus on the pagP gene as well as other associated transcription factors. The visualization of the sequential transcriptional activity is used to describe the change in metabolic pathway activity originating from the pagP transcription factor, phoP. The results show a shift from amino acid and nucleic acid metabolism, to energy metabolism during the transition to stationary phase in E. coli.

Keywords: Escherichia coli, gene regulation, network, time-series

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Authors: Arian Hosseini, Mahmudul Hasan

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To address the increasing need for efficient and accurate content moderation, we propose an efficient and lightweight deep classification ensemble structure. Our approach is based on a combination of simple visual features, designed for high-accuracy classification of violent content with low false positives. Our ensemble architecture utilizes a set of lightweight models with narrowed-down color features, and we apply it to both images and videos. We evaluated our approach using a large dataset of explosion and blast contents and compared its performance to popular deep learning models such as ResNet-50. Our evaluation results demonstrate significant improvements in prediction accuracy, while benefiting from 7.64x faster inference and lower computation cost. While our approach is tailored to explosion detection, it can be applied to other similar content moderation and violence detection use cases as well. Based on our experiments, we propose a "think small, think many" philosophy in classification scenarios. We argue that transforming a single, large, monolithic deep model into a verification-based step model ensemble of multiple small, simple, and lightweight models with narrowed-down visual features can possibly lead to predictions with higher accuracy.

Keywords: deep classification, content moderation, ensemble learning, explosion detection, video processing

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Authors: Kong Ngai Pei

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The argument scheme approach to argumentation has two components. One is to identify the recurrent patterns of inferences used in everyday discourse. The second is to devise critical questions to evaluate the inferences in these patterns. Although this approach is intuitive and contains many insightful ideas, it has been noted to be not free of problems. One is that due to its disavowing the probability calculus, it cannot give the exact strength of an inference. In order to tackle this problem, thereby paving the way to a more complete normative account of argument strength, it has been proposed, the most promising way is to combine the scheme-based approach with Bayesian networks (BNs). This paper pursues this line of thought, attempting to combine three common schemes, Appeal to Ignorance, Composition, and Division, with BNs. In the first part, it is argued that most (if not all) formulations of the critical questions corresponding to these schemes in the current argumentation literature are incomplete and not very informative. To remedy these flaws, more thorough and precise formulations of these questions are provided. In the second part, how to use graphical idioms (e.g. measurement and synthesis idioms) to translate the schemes as well as their corresponding critical questions to graphical structure of BNs, and how to define probability tables of the nodes using functions of various sorts are shown. In the final part, it is argued that many misuses of these schemes, traditionally called fallacies with the same names as the schemes, can indeed be adequately accounted for by the BN models proposed in this paper.

Keywords: appeal to ignorance, argument schemes, Bayesian networks, composition, division

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Authors: Roseline Oghogho Osaseri, Osaseri E. I.

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Lassa fever is an epidemic hemorrhagic fever caused by the Lassa virus, an extremely virulent arena virus. This highly fatal disorder kills 10% to 50% of its victims, but those who survive its early stages usually recover and acquire immunity to secondary attacks. One of the major challenges in giving proper treatment is lack of fast and accurate diagnosis of the disease due to multiplicity of symptoms associated with the disease which could be similar to other clinical conditions and makes it difficult to diagnose early. This paper proposed an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for the prediction of Lass Fever. In the design of the diagnostic system, four main attributes were considered as the input parameters and one output parameter for the system. The input parameters are Temperature on admission (TA), White Blood Count (WBC), Proteinuria (P) and Abdominal Pain (AP). Sixty-one percent of the datasets were used in training the system while fifty-nine used in testing. Experimental results from this study gave a reliable and accurate prediction of Lassa fever when compared with clinically confirmed cases. In this study, we have proposed Lassa fever diagnostic system to aid surgeons and medical healthcare practictionals in health care facilities who do not have ready access to Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) diagnosis to predict possible Lassa fever infection.

Keywords: anfis, lassa fever, medical diagnosis, soft computing

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Authors: Swathi M. Vanniarajan

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Reading research suggests that online contextual vocabulary comprehension while reading is an interactive and integrative process. One’s success in it depends on a variety of factors including the amount and the nature of available linguistic and nonlinguistic cues, his/her analytical and integrative skills, schema memory (content familiarity), and processing speed characterized along the continuum of controlled to automatic processing. The experiment reported here, conducted with 30 native speakers as one group and 30 nonnative speakers as another group (all graduate students), hypothesized that while working on (24) tasks which required them to comprehend an unfamiliar word in real time without backtracking, due to the differences in the nature of their respective reading processes, the nonnative subjects would be less able to construct the meanings of the unknown words by integrating the multiple but sufficient contextual cues provided in the text but the native subjects would be able to. The results indicated that there were significant inter-group as well as intra-group differences in terms of the quality of definitions given. However, when given additional time, while the nonnative speakers could significantly improve the quality of their definitions, the native speakers in general would not, suggesting that all things being equal, time is a significant factor for success in nonnative vocabulary and reading comprehension processes and that accuracy precedes automaticity in the development of nonnative reading processes also.

Keywords: reading, second language processing, vocabulary comprehension

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Najrullah Khan, Athar Ali Khan

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The Topp-Leone distribution was introduced by Topp- Leone in 1955. In this paper, an attempt has been made to fit Topp-Leone Generalized exponential (TPGE) distribution. A real survival data set is used for illustrations. Implementation is done using R and JAGS and appropriate illustrations are made. R and JAGS codes have been provided to implement censoring mechanism using both optimization and simulation tools. The main aim of this paper is to describe and illustrate the Bayesian modelling approach to the analysis of survival data. Emphasis is placed on the modeling of data and the interpretation of the results. Crucial to this is an understanding of the nature of the incomplete or 'censored' data encountered. Analytic approximation and simulation tools are covered here, but most of the emphasis is on Markov chain based Monte Carlo method including independent Metropolis algorithm, which is currently the most popular technique. For analytic approximation, among various optimization algorithms and trust region method is found to be the best. In this paper, TPGE model is also used to analyze the lifetime data in Bayesian paradigm. Results are evaluated from the above mentioned real survival data set. The analytic approximation and simulation methods are implemented using some software packages. It is clear from our findings that simulation tools provide better results as compared to those obtained by asymptotic approximation.

Keywords: Bayesian Inference, JAGS, Laplace Approximation, LaplacesDemon, posterior, R Software, simulation

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Authors: Arkadiusz Urzędowski, Dorota Wójcicka-Migasiuk, Andrzej Sachajdak, Magdalena Paśnikowska-Łukaszuk

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Due to the impact of climate changes and inevitability to reduce greenhouse gases, the need to use low-carbon and sustainable construction has increased. In this work, it is investigated how texture of the surface building materials and radiative heat transfer phenomenon in flat multilayer can be correlated. Attempts to test the surface emissivity are taken however, the trustworthiness of measurement results remains a concern since sensor size and thickness are common problems. This paper presents an experimental method to studies surface emissivity with use self constructed thermal sensors and thermal imaging technique. The surface of building materials was modified by mechanical and chemical treatment affecting the reduction of the emissivity. For testing the shaping surface of materials and mapping its three-dimensional structure, scanning profilometry were used in a laboratory. By comparing the results of laboratory tests and performed analysis of 3D computer fluid dynamics software, it can be shown that a change in the surface coverage of materials affects the heat transport by radiation between layers. Motivated by recent advancements in variational inference, this publication evaluates the potential use a dedicated data processing approach, and properly constructed temperature sensors, the influence of the surface emissivity on the phenomenon of radiation and heat transport in the entire partition can be determined.

Keywords: heat transfer, surface roughness, surface emissivity, radiation

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Authors: Xinyuan Y. Song, Kai Kang

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Joint models for analyzing longitudinal and survival data are widely used to investigate the relationship between a failure time process and time-variant predictors. A common assumption in conventional joint models in the survival analysis literature is that all predictors are observable. However, this assumption may not always be supported because unobservable traits, namely, latent variables, which are indirectly observable and should be measured through multiple observed variables, are commonly encountered in the medical, behavioral, and financial research settings. In this study, a joint modeling approach to deal with this feature is proposed. The proposed model comprises three parts. The first part is a dynamic factor analysis model for characterizing latent variables through multiple observed indicators over time. The second part is a random coefficient trajectory model for describing the individual trajectories of latent variables. The third part is a proportional hazard model for examining the effects of time-invariant predictors and the longitudinal trajectories of time-variant latent risk factors on hazards of interest. A Bayesian approach coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to perform statistical inference. An application of the proposed joint model to a study on the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging Initiative is presented.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, joint model, longitudinal data, time-to-event data

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Authors: Endeshaw Assefa Derso, Maria Gabriella Campolo, Angela Alibrandi

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Objectives:Early childhood malnutrition can have long-term and irreversible effects on a child's health and development. This study uses the Bayesian method with spatial variation to investigate the flexible trends of metrical covariates and to identify communities at high risk of injury. Methods: Cross-sectional data on underweight are collected from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). The Bayesian geo-additive model is performed. Appropriate prior distributions were provided for scall parameters in the models, and the inference is entirely Bayesian, using Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) stimulation. Results: The results show that metrical covariates like child age, maternal body mass index (BMI), and maternal age affect a child's underweight non-linearly. Lower and higher maternal BMI seem to have a significant impact on the child’s high underweight. There was also a significant spatial heterogeneity, and based on IDW interpolation of predictive values, the western, central, and eastern parts of the country are hotspot areas. Conclusion: Socio-demographic and community- based programs development should be considered compressively in Ethiopian policy to combat childhood underweight malnutrition.

Keywords: bayesX, Ethiopia, malnutrition, MCMC, semi-parametric bayesian analysis, spatial distribution, P- splines

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Authors: Lauren Schuldt Wilson

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Felicia Hemans’ memorializing of the unwritten lives of women and the consequent allowance for marginalized voices to remember and be remembered has been considered by many critics in terms of ekphrasis and elegy, terms which privilege the question of whether Hemans’ poeticizing can represent lost voices of history or only her poetic expression. Amy Gates, Brian Elliott, and others point out Hemans’ acknowledgement of the self-projection necessary for imaginatively filling the absences of unrecorded histories. Yet, few have examined the complex temporal positioning Hemans inscribes in these moments of self-projection and imaginative historicizing. In poems like ‘The Image in Lava,’ Hemans maps not only a lost past, but also a lost potential future onto the image of a dead infant in its mother’s arms, the discovery and consideration of which moves the imagined viewer to recover and incorporate the ‘hope’ encapsulated in the figure of the infant into a reevaluation of national time embodied by the ‘relics / Left by the pomps of old.’ By examining Hemans’ acknowledgement and response to Percy Bysshe Shelley’s ‘Ozymandias,’ this essay explores how Hemans’ depictions of imaginative historicizing open new horizons of possibility and reevaluate temporal value structures by imagining previously undiscovered or unexplored potentialities of the past. Where Shelley’s poem mocks the futility of national power and time, this essay outlines Hemans’ suggestion of alternative threads of identity and temporal meaning-making which, regardless of historical veracity, exist outside of and against the structures Shelley challenges. Counter to previous readings of Hemans’ poem as celebration of either recovered or poetically constructed maternal love, this essay argues that Hemans offers a meditation on sites of reproduction—both of personal reproductive futurity and of national reproduction of power. This meditation culminates in Hemans’ gesturing towards a method of historicism by which the imagined viewer reinvigorates the sterile, ‘shattered visage’ of national time by forming temporal identity through the imagining of trans-historical hope inscribed on the infant body of the universal, individual subject rather than the broken monument of the king.

Keywords: futurity, national temporalities, reproduction, revisionary histories

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Authors: Rima Abu Jaber-Bransi, Rawya Jarjoura Burbara

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This study reveals the extension and continuity between the classical Arabic poetry and modern Arabic poetry through investigation of its ambiguity, symbolism, and antithetical relationships. The significance of this study lies in its exploration and discovering of a new method of reading classical and modern Arabic poetry. The study deals with the Fatimid poetry and discovers a new method to read it. It also deals with the relationship between the apparent and the hidden meanings of words through focusing on how the paradoxical antithetical relationships change the meaning of the whole poem and give it a different dimension through the use of Oxymorons. In our unprecedented research on Oxymoron, we found out that the words in modern Arabic poetry are used in unusual combinations that convey apparent and hidden meanings. In some cases, the poet introduces an image with a symbol of a certain thing, but the reader soon discovers that the symbol includes its opposite, too. The question is: How does the reader find that hidden harmony in that apparent disharmony? The first and most important conclusion of this study is that the Fatimid poetry was written for two types of readers: religious readers who know the religious symbols and the hidden secret meanings behind the words, and ordinary readers who understand the apparent literal meaning of the words. Consequently, the interpretation of the poem is subject to the type of reading. In Fatimid poetry we found out that the hunting-journey is a journey of hidden esoteric knowledge; the Horse is al-Naqib, a religious rank of the investigator and missionary; the Lion is Ali Ibn Abi Talib. The words black and white, day and night, bird, death and murder have different meanings and indications. Our study points out the importance of reading certain poems in certain periods in two different ways: the first depends on a doctrinal interpretation that transforms the external apparent (ẓāher) meanings into internal inner hidden esoteric (bāṭen) ones; the second depends on the interpretation of antithetical relationships between the words in order to reveal meanings that the poet hid for a reader who participates in the processes of creativity. The second conclusion is that the classical poem employed symbols, oxymora and antonymous and antithetical forms to create two poetic texts in one mold and form. We can conclude that this study is pioneering in showing the constant paradoxical relationship between the apparent and the hidden meanings in classical and modern Arabic poetry.

Keywords: apparent, symbol, hidden, antithetical, oxymoron, Sophism, Fatimid poetry

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Authors: Karen V. Lee

Abstract:

The background and significance of this study involve communication in education by a faculty advisor exploring story and music that informs others about a disabled teacher. Social issues draw deep reflection about the emotional turmoil. As a musician becoming a teacher is a passionate yet complex endeavor, the faculty advisor shares a poetic but painful story about a disabled teacher being inducted into the teaching profession. The qualitative research method as theoretical framework draws on autoethnography of music and story where the faculty advisor approaches a professor for advice. His musicianship shifts her forward, backward, and sideways through feelings that evoke and provoke curriculum to remove communication barriers in education. They discover they do not transfer knowledge from educational method classes. Instead, the autoethnography embeds musical language as a metaphorical conduit for removing communication barriers in teacher education. Sub-themes involve communication barriers and educational technologies to ensure teachers receive social, emotional, physical, spiritual, and intervention disability resources that evoke visceral, emotional responses from the audience. Major findings of the study discover how autoethnography of music and story bring the authors to understand wider political issues of the practicum internship for teachers with disabilities. An epiphany reveals the irony of living in a culture of both uniformity and diversity. They explore the constructs of secrecy, ideology, abnormality, and marginalization by evoking visceral and emotional responses from the audience. As the voices harmonize plot, climax, characterization, and denouement, they dramatize meaning that is episodic yet incomplete to highlight the circumstances surrounding the disabled protagonist’s life. In conclusion, the qualitative research method argues for embracing storied experiences that depict communication in education. Scholarly significance embraces personal thoughts and feelings as a way of understanding social phenomena while highlighting the importance of removing communication barriers in education. The circumstance about a teacher with a disability is not uncommon in society. Thus, the authors resolve to removing barriers in education by using stories to transform the personal and cultural influences that provoke new ways of thinking about the curriculum for a disabled teacher.

Keywords: communication in education, communication barriers, autoethnography, teaching

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Authors: Sonam Kelzang

Abstract:

Background: Penetrating injuries as a result of traditional sports (Archery and Khuru) are commonly seen in Bhutan. To our knowledge, there is no study carried out looking into the data of penetrating injuries due to traditional sports. Aim: This is a retrospective analysis of cases of penetrating injuries as a result of traditional sports admitted to JDWNRH over the last 3 years to draw an inference on the pattern of injury and associated morbidity and mortality. Method: Data on penetrating injuries related to traditional sports (Archery and Khuru) were collected and reviewed over the period of 3 years. Assault cases were excluded. For each year we analysed age, sex, parts of the body affected, agent of injury and whether admission was required or not. Results: Out of the total 44 victims of penetrating injury by traditional sports (Archery and Khuru) between 2013 and 2015 (average of 15 cases of penetrating injuries per year). Eighty-five percent were male and 15% were female. Their age ranged from 4 yrs to 62 years. Sixty-one percent of the victims were in the working age group of 19-58 years; 30% of the victims were referred from various district hospitals; 38% of the victims needed admission; 42 % of the victims suffered injury to the head; and 54% of the injuries were caused by Khuru. Conclusion: Penetrating injuries due to traditional sports admitted to JDWNRH, Thimphu, remained same over the three years period despite safety regulations in place. Although there were no deaths during the last three years, morbidity still remains high.

Keywords: archery, Bhutan, Khuru, darts

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Authors: Sofia M. Karadimitriou, Kostas Triantafyllopoulos, Timothy Heaton

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Reduced dimension Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Models (DSTMs) jointly describe the spatial and temporal evolution of a function observed subject to noise. A basic state space model is adopted for the discrete temporal variation, while a continuous autoregressive structure describes the continuous spatial evolution. Application of such a DSTM relies upon the pre-selection of a suitable reduced set of basic functions and this can present a challenge in practice. In this talk, we propose an online estimation method for high dimensional spatio-temporal data based upon DSTM and we attempt to resolve this issue by allowing the basis to adapt to the observed data. Specifically, we present a wavelet decomposition in order to obtain a parsimonious approximation of the spatial continuous process. This parsimony can be achieved by placing a Laplace prior distribution on the wavelet coefficients. The aim of using the Laplace prior, is to filter wavelet coefficients with low contribution, and thus achieve the dimension reduction with significant computation savings. We then propose a Hierarchical Bayesian State Space model, for the estimation of which we offer an appropriate particle filter algorithm. The proposed methodology is illustrated using real environmental data.

Keywords: multidimensional Laplace prior, particle filtering, spatio-temporal modelling, wavelets

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Authors: Ms Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

Abstract:

Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis as a tool for the causal inference in the observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned, thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. For the binary outcome, the effect of treatment on the outcome can be estimated by odds ratios, relative risks, and risk differences. However, using the different PS methods may give you a different estimation of the treatment effect on the outcome. Several methods of PS analyses have been used mainly, include matching, inverse probability of weighting, stratification, and covariate adjusted on PS. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables (exposure, covariates), the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect (ATE) utilizing the stratification of PS method. Therefore, we are trying to avoid choosing arbitrary cut-points, instead, we continuously discretize the PS and accumulate information across all cut-points for inferences. We will use Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate ATE, focusing on two PS methods, stratification and covariate adjusted on PS. We will then show how this can be observed based on the analyses of the data from a case-control study of breast cancer, the Polish Women’s Health Study.

Keywords: average treatment effect, propensity score, stratification, covariate adjusted, monte Calro estimation, breast cancer, case_control study

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Authors: Isha Saxena, Behzad Kazemtabrizi, Matthias C. M. Troffaes, Christopher Crabtree

Abstract:

The calculations done at the beginning of the life of a wind farm are rarely reliable, which makes it important to conduct research and study the failure and repair rates of the wind turbines under various conditions. This miscalculation happens because the current models make a simplifying assumption that the failure/repair rate remains constant over time. This means that the reliability function is exponential in nature. This research aims to create a more accurate model using sensory data and a data-driven approach. The data cleaning and data processing is done by comparing the Power Curve data of the wind turbines with SCADA data. This is then converted to times to repair and times to failure timeseries data. Several different mathematical functions are fitted to the times to failure and times to repair data of the wind turbine components using Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Posterior expectation method for Bayesian Parameter Estimation. Initial results indicate that two parameter Weibull function and exponential function produce almost identical results. Further analysis is being done using the complex system analysis considering the failures of each electrical and mechanical component of the wind turbine. The aim of this project is to perform a more accurate reliability analysis that can be helpful for the engineers to schedule maintenance and repairs to decrease the downtime of the turbine.

Keywords: reliability, bayesian parameter inference, maximum likelihood estimation, weibull function, SCADA data

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