Search results for: option price valuation formula

Authors: Zahra Abdolkarimi, Naser Zouri

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Nowadays, there is unbelievable growing of Robots created a collection of complex and motivate subject in robotic and intellectual ornate, also it made a mechatronics style base of theoretical and technical way in Robocop. Additionally, robotics system recommended RoboCup factor as a provider of some standardization and testing method in case of computer discussion widely. The actual purpose of RoboCup is creating independent team of robots in 2050 based of FiFa roles to bring the victory in compare of world star team. In addition, decision making of robots depends to environment reaction, self-player and rival player with using inductive Fuzzy system valuation subsidiary to solve issue of robots in land game. The measure of selection in compare with other methods depends to amount of victories percentage in the same team that plays accidently. Consequences, shows method of our discussion is the best way for Particle Swarm Optimization and Fuzzy system compare to other decision of robotics algorithmic.

Keywords: PSO algorithm, inference fuzzy system, chaos theory, soccer robot league

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Authors: Ali Hojati Najafabadi, Mohamad Hosein Rahmati, Seyed Ali Madanizadeh

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Governments execute energy subsidy reforms by either increasing energy prices or reducing energy price dispersion. These policies make less use of energy per plant (intensive margin), vary the total number of firms (extensive margin), promote technological progress (technology channel), and make additional resources to redistribute (resource channel). We estimate a structural dynamic firm model with endogenous technology adaptation using data from the manufacturing firms in Iran and a country ranked the second-largest energy subsidy plan by the IMF. The findings show significant dynamics and distributional effects due to an energy reform plan. The price elasticity of energy consumption in the industrial sector is about -2.34, while it is -3.98 for large firms. The dispersion elasticity, defined as the amounts of changes in energy consumption by a one-percent reduction in the standard error of energy price distribution, is about 1.43, suggesting significant room for a distributional policy. We show that the intensive margin is the main driver of energy price elasticity, whereas the other channels mostly offset it. In contrast, the labor response is mainly through the extensive margin. Total factor productivity slightly improves in light of the reduction in energy consumption if, at the same time, the redistribution policy boosts the aggregate demands.

Keywords: energy reform, firm dynamics, structural estimation, subsidy policy

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Authors: Benedict O. Ayomanor, Cookey Iyen, Ifeoma S. Iyen

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Rice hull (RH) biomass product gives feasible silica for exact temperature and period. The minimal fabrication price turns its best feasible produce to metallurgical grade silicon (MG-Si). In this work, to avoid ecological worries extending from CO₂ release to oil leakage on water and land, or nuclear left-over pollution, all finally add to the immense topics of ecological squalor; high purity silicon > 98.5% emerge set from rice hull ash (RHA) by solid-liquid removal. The RHA derived was purified by nitric and hydrochloric acid solutions. Leached RHA sieved, washed in distilled water, and desiccated at 1010ºC for 4h. Extra cleansing was achieved by carefully mixing the SiO₂ ash through Mg dust at a proportion of 0.9g SiO₂ to 0.9g Mg, galvanised at 1010ºC to formula magnesium silicide. The solid produced was categorised by X-ray fluorescence (XRF), X-ray diffractometer (XRD), and Fourier transformation infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. Elemental analysis using XRF found the percentage of silicon in the material is approximately 98.6%, main impurities are Mg (0.95%), Ca (0.09%), Fe (0.3%), K (0.25%), and Al (0.40%).

Keywords: siliceous, leached, biomass, solid-liquid extraction

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Authors: Ashraf Eid

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Many formulas are set to estimate the pile load capacity based on the in-situ pile load tests. However, discrepancy is obvious between the results of these applications. Some formulas are more adequate than others with respect to soil formation and its characteristics. In this research, attempts were undertaken to evaluate the adequacy of the most well-known formulas based on a series of pile load tests carried out in Port Said city in the northeast of Egypt for major residential projects. Comparisons were undertaken between the different formulas supported by the results of in-situ Cone Penetration Tests (CPT). Based on this study, a guide for engineers for using the proper formula can be adopted with consideration of soil type and characteristics. The Egyptian Code which relies on the results of some formulas is involved in the study as a guiding aspect in the pile design.

Keywords: pile load formula, load test of piles, CPT, Egyptian code

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Authors: Tijjani Bashir Musa

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The recent global crisis which suddenly results to Nigerian stock market crash revealed some peculiarities of Nigerian firms. Some firms in Nigeria are performing but their stock prices are not increasing while some firms are at the brink of collapse but their stock prices are increasing. Thus, this study examines the relationship between firm performance and stock price in Nigeria. The study covered the period of 2005 to 2009. This period is the period of stock boom and also marked the period of stock market crash as a result of global financial meltdown. The study is a panel study. A total of 140 firms were sampled from 216 firms listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). Data were collected from secondary source. These data were divided into four strata comprising the most performing stock, the least performing stock, most performing firms and the least performing firms. Each stratum contains 35 firms with characteristic of most performing stock, most performing firms, least performing stock and least performing firms. Multiple linear regression models were used to analyse the data while statistical/econometrics package of Stata 11.0 version was used to run the data. The study found that, relationship exists between selected firm performance parameters (operating efficiency, firm profit, earning per share and working capital) and stock price. As such firm performance gave sufficient information or has predictive power on stock prices movements in Nigeria for all the years under study.. The study recommends among others that Managers of firms in Nigeria should formulate policies and exert effort geared towards improving firm performance that will enhance stock prices movements.

Keywords: firm, Nigeria, performance, stock price

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Authors: Jorge M. Uribe

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We propose a methodology for setting the price of an insurance contract targeted to manage the risk associated with weather conditions that affect variable renewable energy generation. The methodology relies on conditional quantile regressions to estimate the weather risk of a solar panel. It is illustrated using real daily radiation and weather data for three cities in Spain (Valencia, Barcelona and Madrid) from February 2/2004 to January 22/2019. We also adapt the concepts of value at risk and expected short fall from finance to this context, to provide a complete panorama of what we label as weather risk. The methodology is easy to implement and can be used by insurance companies to price a contract with the aforementioned characteristics when data about similar projects and accurate cash flow projections are lacking. Our methodology assigns a higher price to an insurance product with the stated characteristics in Madrid, compared to Valencia and Barcelona. This is consistent with Madrid showing the largest interquartile range of operational deficits and it is unrelated to the average value deficit, which illustrates the importance of our proposal.

Keywords: insurance, weather, vre, risk

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Authors: P. Kanakasabapathy, S. Radhika

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In the competitive electricity market environment, the profit of the pumped-storage plant in the energy market can be maximized by operating it as a generator, when market clearing price is high and as a pump, to pump water from lower reservoir to upper reservoir, when the price is low. An optimal self-scheduling plan has been developed for a pumped-storage plant, carried out on weekly basis in order to maximize the profit of the plant, keeping into account of all the major uncertainties such as the sudden ancillary service delivery request and the price forecasting errors. For a pumped storage power plant to operate in a real time market successive self-scheduling has to be done by considering the forecast of the day-ahead market and the modified reservoir storage due to the ancillary service request of the previous day. Sliding Window Technique has been used for successive self-scheduling to ensure profit for the plant.

Keywords: ancillary services, BPSO, power system economics, self-scheduling, sliding window technique

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Authors: Anitha Narasimhan, Aarthy Anandan, Madhan Karky, C. N. Subalalitha

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Games can be the excellent tools for teaching a language. There are few e-learning games in Indian languages like word scrabble, cross word, quiz games etc., which were developed mainly for educational purposes. This paper proposes a Tamil word game called, “Porul”, which focuses on education as well as on players’ thinking and decision-making skills. Porul is a multiple choice based quiz game, in which the players attempt to answer questions correctly from the given multiple options that are generated using a unique algorithm called the Option Selection algorithm which explores the semantics of the question in various dimensions namely, synonym, rhyme and Universal Networking Language semantic category. This kind of semantic exploration of the question not only increases the complexity of the game but also makes it more interesting. The paper also proposes a Scoring Algorithm which allots a score based on the popularity score of the question word. The proposed game has been tested using 20,000 Tamil words.

Keywords: Porul game, Tamil word game, option selection, flash card, scoring, algorithm

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Authors: Grienggrai Rajchakit

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This paper is concerned with the exponential stability of switched linear systems with interval time-varying delays. The time delay is any continuous function belonging to a given interval, in which the lower bound of delay is not restricted to zero. By constructing a suitable augmented Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional combined with Leibniz-Newton's formula, a switching rule for the exponential stability of switched linear systems with interval time-varying delays and new delay-dependent sufficient conditions for the exponential stability of the systems are first established in terms of LMIs. Finally, some examples are exploited to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Keywords: exponential stability, hybrid systems, time-varying delays, lyapunov-krasovskii functional, leibniz-newton's formula

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Authors: Dai-Ling Li, Jung-Fa Cheng, Min-Lang Huang, Yun-Yao Chi

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The hedonic pricing model has been popularly applied to describe the economic value of environmental amenities in urban housing, but the results for cultural heritage variables remain relatively ambiguous. In this paper, integrated variables extending by GIS-based data and an existing typology of communities used to examine how cultural heritage and environmental amenities and disamenities affect housing prices across urban communities in Tainan, Taiwan. The developed models suggest that, although a sophisticated variable for central services is selected, the centrality of location is not fully controlled in the price models and thus picked up by correlated peripheral and central amenities such as cultural heritage, open space or parks. Analysis of these correlations permits us to qualify results and present a revised set of relatively reliable estimates. Positive effects on housing prices are identified for views, various types of recreational infrastructure and vicinity of nationally cultural sites and significant landscapes. Negative effects are found for several disamenities including wasteyards, refuse incinerators, petrol stations and industries. The results suggest that systematic hypothesis testing and reporting of correlations may contribute to consistent explanatory patterns in hedonic pricing estimates for cultural heritage and landscape amenities in urban.

Keywords: hedonic pricing model, cultural heritage, landscape amenities, housing

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Authors: Redhouane Benfares, Kamel Boudjemaa, Affaf Kord, Sonia Messis, Linda Farai, Belkacem Guenachi, Kherarba Maha, Jaroslava ŠVarc-Gajić

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In recent years valorization of biowaste has attracted a lot of attention worldwide owing to its high nutritional value and low price. In this work, biowaste of animal (sardines) and plant (tomato) biowaste was used to formulate a new feed for red tilapia that showed to be competitive in its price, and zootechnical performance in comparison to commercially available tilapia feeds. Mathematical modelling was used to formulate optimal feed composition with favorable chemical composition and the lowest price. Formulated feed had high protein content (40.76%) and an energy value of 279.6 Kcal/100 g. Optimised feed was manufactured and compared to commercially available reference feed with respect to feeding intake, feed efficiency, the specific growth rate of fingerlings of Tilapia sp, and, most important, zootechnical parameters. With a fish survival rate of 100% calculated feed conversion index for the formulated feed was 2.7.

Keywords: conversion index, fish waste, formulated feed, tomato waste

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Authors: Andrea Ghermandi

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Constructed wetlands have long been recognized as sources of ancillary benefits such as support for recreational activities. To date, there is a lack of quantitative understanding of the extent and welfare impact of such benefits. Here, it is shown how geotagged, passively crowdsourced data from online social networks (e.g., Flickr and Panoramio) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques can: (1) be used to infer annual recreational visits to 273 engineered wetlands worldwide; and (2) be integrated with non-market economic valuation techniques (e.g., travel cost method) to infer the monetary value of recreation in these systems. Counts of social media photo-user-days are highly correlated with the number of observed visits in 62 engineered wetlands worldwide (Pearson’s r = 0.811; p-value < 0.001). The estimated, mean willingness to pay for access to 115 wetlands ranges between $5.3 and $374. In 50% of the investigated wetlands providing polishing treatment to advanced municipal wastewater, the present value of such benefits exceeds that of the capital, operation and maintenance costs (lifetime = 45 years; discount rate = 6%), indicating that such systems are sources of net societal benefits even before factoring in benefits derived from water quality improvement and storage. Based on the above results, it is argued that recreational benefits should be taken into account in the design and management of constructed wetlands, as well as when such green infrastructure systems are compared with conventional wastewater treatment solutions.

Keywords: constructed wetlands, cultural ecosystem services, ecological engineering, social media

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Authors: Tamara Slišković, Tomislav Sekur

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This manuscript examines factors that affect demand and supply of the housing market in Croatia. The period from the beginning of this century, until 2008, was characterized by a strong expansion of construction, housing and real estate market in general. Demand for residential units was expanding, and this was supported by favorable lending conditions of banks. Indicators on the supply side, such as the number of newly built houses and the construction volume index were also increasing. Rapid growth of demand, along with the somewhat slower supply growth, led to the situation in which new apartments were sold before the completion of residential buildings. This resulted in a rise of housing price which was indication of a clear link between the housing prices with the supply and demand in the housing market. However, after 2008 general economic conditions in Croatia worsened and demand for housing has fallen dramatically, while supply descended at much slower pace. Given that there is a gap between supply and demand, it can be concluded that the housing market in Croatia is in imbalance. Such trend is accompanied by a relatively small decrease in housing price. The final result of such movements is the large number of unsold housing units at relatively high price levels. For this reason, it can be argued that housing prices are sticky and that, consequently, the price level in the aftermath of a crisis does not correspond to the discrepancy between supply and demand on the Croatian housing market. The degree of rigidity of the housing price can be determined by inclusion of the housing price as the explanatory variable in the housing demand function. Other independent variables are demographic variable (e.g. the number of households), the interest rate on housing loans, households' disposable income and rent. The equilibrium price is reached when the demand for housing equals its supply, and the speed of adjustment of actual prices to equilibrium prices reveals the extent to which the prices are rigid. The latter requires inclusion of the housing prices with time lag as an independent variable in estimating demand function. We also observe the supply side of the housing market, in order to explain to what extent housing prices explain the movement of new construction activity, and other variables that describe the supply. In this context, we test whether new construction on the Croatian market is dependent on current prices or prices with a time lag. Number of dwellings is used to approximate new construction (flow variable), while the housing prices (current or lagged), quantity of dwellings in the previous period (stock variable) and a series of costs related to new construction are independent variables. We conclude that the key reason for the imbalance in the Croatian housing market should be sought in the relative relationship of price elasticities of supply and demand.

Keywords: Croatian housing market, economic crisis, housing prices, supply imbalance, demand imbalance

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Authors: Haoxue Cui, Sirui Zhang, Shanshan Gao, Weiyi Zhang, Lantian Wang, Xuanwen Zheng

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The 2020 "multi-school zoning" policy makes students ineligible for direct attendance in their district. To study whether the housing price trend of the school district is affected by the policy, This paper studies housing prices based on the school district division in Xicheng District, Beijing. In this paper, we collected housing prices and the basic situation of communities from "Anjuke", which were divided into two periods of 15 months before and after the 731 policy in the Xicheng District, Beijing. Then we used DID model and time fixed effect to investigate the DIFFERENTIAL statistics, that is, the overall net impact of the policy. The results show that the coefficient is negative at a certain statistical level. It indicates that the housing prices of school districts in the Xicheng district decreased after the "multi-school zoning" policy, which shows that the policy has effectively reduced the housing price of school districts in the Xicheng District and laid a foundation for the "double reduction" policy in 2022.

Keywords: “multi-school zoning”policy, DID, time fixed effect, housing prices

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Authors: Tseng-Lung Huang

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Sensory breadth experiences, such as visualization, a sense of self-location, and haptic experiences, are critical in an online try-on environment. This research adopts an emotional appeal perspective, including concrete and abstract effects, to clarify the relationship between sensory experience and consumer's behavior intention in an online try-on context. This study employed an augmented reality interactive technology (ARIT) in an online clothes-fitting context and applied snowball sampling using e-mail to invite online consumers, first to use ARIT for trying on online apparel and then to complete a questionnaire. One hundred sixty-eight valid questionnaires were collected, and partial least squares (PLS) path modeling was used to test our hypotheses. The results showed that sensory breadth, by arousing concrete effect, induces impulse buying intention and willingness to pay a price premium of online shopping. Parasocial presence, as an abstract effect, diminishes the effect of concrete effects on willingness to pay a price premium.

Keywords: sensory breadth, impulsive behavior, price premium, emotional appeal, online try-on context

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Authors: T. J. B. van Niekerk, J. Viviers, E. J. Cilliers

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Substantial efforts were made in South Africa, stemming from a historic political change in 1994, to remedy the inequality and injustice, resulting from a dispensation where spatial patterns were largely based on racial segregation. Spatially distorted patterns predominantly originated from colonialism in the beginning of the twentieth century, ensuing a physical imprint on South African cities relating to architecture, urban layout and planning, frequently reflecting European norms and standards. As a consequence of physical and land use barriers, and well-established dual cities, attempts to address spatial injustices, apart from limited occurrences in metropolitan areas, gravely failed. Interception of incessant segregated growth, combined with urban sprawl is becoming increasingly evident. Intervention is a prerequisite to duly address the impact of colonial planning and its legacy still prevalent in most urban areas. During 1998, the National Department of Transport prepared the “Moving South Africa” strategy; presenting the Corridor Densification Option Model for the first time, as it was deemed more fitting to the existing South African urban tenure patterns than more familiar planning approaches. Urban planners are progressively contemplating the Corridor Densification Option Model and its attributes, besides its transportation emphasis, as an alternative approach to address spatial imbalances and to attain the physical integration of contemporary urban forms. In attaining a clearer understanding of the Corridor Densification Option Model, its rationale was analysed in greater detail. This research further investigated the provisional applications of the model in spatially segregated cities and illustrated that viable options are present to effectively employ it. Research revealed that the application of the model will, however, be dependent on the occurrence of specific characteristics in spatially segregated cities to warrant augmentation thereof.

Keywords: corridor densification option model, spatially segregated settlements, integration, urban restructuring

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Authors: Yuhanis Yusof, Zuriani Mustaffa, Siti Sakira Kamaruddin

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Data mining is a fundamental technique in identifying patterns from large data sets. The extracted facts and patterns contribute in various domains such as marketing, forecasting, and medical. Prior to that, data are consolidated so that the resulting mining process may be more efficient. This study investigates the effect of different data normalization techniques, which are Min-max, Z-score, and decimal scaling, on Swarm-based forecasting models. Recent swarm intelligence algorithms employed includes the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) and Artificial Bee Colony (ABC). Forecasting models are later developed to predict the daily spot price of crude oil and gasoline. Results showed that GWO works better with Z-score normalization technique while ABC produces better accuracy with the Min-Max. Nevertheless, the GWO is more superior that ABC as its model generates the highest accuracy for both crude oil and gasoline price. Such a result indicates that GWO is a promising competitor in the family of swarm intelligence algorithms.

Keywords: artificial bee colony, data normalization, forecasting, Grey Wolf optimizer

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Authors: Oded Hochman

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We first show that current measures of welfare changes in the whole economy do not apply to an economy with cities. In addition, since such measures are defined over a partial equilibrium, they capture only partially the effect of a welfare change. We then define a unique and additive measure that we term the modified economic surplus (mES) which fully captures the welfare effects caused by a change in the price of a nationally traded good. We show that the price change causes, on the one hand a change of land rents in the economy and, on the other hand, an equal change of mES that can be estimated by measuring areas in the price-quantity national demand and supply plane. We construct for each city a cost function from which we derive a city’s and, after aggregation, an economy-wide demand and supply functions of nationwide prices and of either the unearned incomes (Marshalian functions) or the utility levels (compensated functions).

Keywords: city cost function, welfare measures, modified compensated variation, modified economic surplus, unearned income function, differential land rents, city size

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Authors: Hui Wu, Ye Li

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Applying the structural break estimation method proposed by Perron and Bai (1998) to the housing price growth rate of top 5 MSAs in the Texas area, this paper estimated the structural break date for the growth rate of housing prices index. As shown in the estimation results, the break dates for each region are quite different, which indicates the heterogeneity of the housing market in response to macroeconomic conditions.

Keywords: structural break, housing prices index, ADF test, linear model

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Authors: Saeed Yazdani, Shahrbanoo Bagheri, Sepideh Nikravesh

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Considering the importance and scarcity of water resources, the efficient management of water resources is of great importance. Adoption of modern irrigation technology is considered to be a key of increasing the efficiency of water used in agriculture. Policy makers have implemented several ways to induce the adoption of new irrigation technology. The empirical studies show that farmers are reluctant to utilize the use of new irrigation methods. This study aims to assess factors affecting on farmer’s decision on the application of water saving technologies with emphasize on crop price variation and water sources. A Logit model was employed to examine the impact of different variables on use of water saving technology. The required data gathered from a sample of 204 farmers in the year 2012. The results indicate that different variables such as crop price variability, water supply source, high-value crops, farm size, income, education, membership in cooperatives have a positive effect and variables such as age and number of plots have a negative impact on the probability of adopting modern water saving technologies.

Keywords: irrigation, water, water saving technology, scarcity

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Authors: Cesar Leines

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The social effects of the pandemic are significant and diverse, most of those effects have widened the gap of economic inequality. Without a doubt, each country faces difficulties associated with the strengths and weaknesses of its own institutions that can address these causes and consequences. Around the world, pricing practices that have no connection to production costs have been used extensively in numerous markets beyond those relating to the supply of essential goods and services, and although it is not unlawful to adjust pricing considering the increased demand of certain products, shortages and disruption of supply chains, illegitimate pricing practices may arise and these tend to transfer wealth from consumers to producers that affect the purchasing power of the former, making people worse off. High prices with no objective justification indicate a poor state of the competitive process in any market and the impact of those underlying competition issues leading to inefficiency is increased when national competition agencies are weak and ineffective in enforcing competition in law and policy. It has been observed that in those countries where competition authorities are perceived as weak or ineffective, price increases of a wide range of products and services were more significant during the pandemic than those price increases observed in countries where the perception of the effectiveness of the competition agency is high. When a perception is created of a highly effective competition authority, one which enforces competition law and its non-enforcement activities result in the fulfillment of its substantive functions of protecting competition as the means to create efficient markets, the price rise observed in markets under its jurisdiction is low. A case study focused on the effectiveness of the national competition agency in Mexico (COFECE) points to institutional weakness as one of the causes leading to excessive pricing. There are many factors that contribute to its low effectiveness and which, in turn, have led to a very significant price hike, potentiated by the pandemic. This paper contributes to the discussion of these factors and proposes different steps that overall help COFECE or any other competition agency to increase the perception of effectiveness for the benefit of the consumers.

Keywords: agency effectiveness, competition, institutional weakness, price gouging

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Authors: Yan Wang, Yasushi Asami, Yukio Sadahiro

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In urban area, several landmarks may affect housing price and rents, hedonic analysis should employ distance variables corresponding to each landmarks. Unfortunately, the effects of distances to landmarks on housing prices are generally not consistent with the true price. These distance variables may cause magnitude error in regression, pointing a problem of spatial multicollinearity. In this paper, we provided some approaches for getting the samples with less bias and method on locating the specific sampling area to avoid the multicollinerity problem in two specific landmarks case.

Keywords: landmarks, hedonic regression, distance variables, collinearity, multicollinerity

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Authors: Erfan Memarian, Seyyed Fazayel Alizadeh

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This study aims to evaluate the impacts of the oil and financial markets of the United States on Iran stock exchange and to develop an ARDL model to predict the short and long-term relationship between these markets. In this regard, all 713 weekly data between 28 July 1999 and 20 March 2013 were analyzed by using Microfit4.0 and Eviews7 econometric softwares. The independent variable of the study is the “Price and Yield Index (TEDPIX)” of Tehran Stock Exchange and the independent variables include S & P 500 Index, the US three-month treasury bill rate and West Texas Intermediate oil spot price index. The results show that the West Texas Intermediate oil spot price and the S&P 500 indices have significant positive relationships with Iran's TEDPIX. Also, there exists a significant negative relationship between Iran's TEDPIX and the US three-month Treasury bill rate.

Keywords: TEDPIX; Tehran Stock Exchange; S&P 500 index; USA three-month Treasury bill rate; West Texas Intermediate oil

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Authors: Ririh Rahma Ratinghayu, Jayu Pramudya, Nur Aini Masruroh, Shi-Woei Lin

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This research studies pricing strategy in cooperative setting of hotel duopoly selling perishable product under fixed capacity constraint by using the perspective of managers. In hotel revenue management, competitor’s average room rate and occupancy rate should be taken into manager’s consideration in determining pricing strategy to generate optimum revenue. This information is not provided by business intelligence or available in competitor’s website. Thus, Information Sharing (IS) among players might result in improved performance of pricing strategy. IS is widely adopted in the logistics industry, but IS within hospitality industry has not been well-studied. This research put IS as one of cooperative game schemes, besides Mutual Price Setting (MPS) scheme. In off-peak season, hotel manager arranges pricing strategy to offer promotion package and various kinds of discounts up to 60% of full-price to attract customers. Competitor selling homogenous product will react the same, then triggers a price war. Price war which generates lower revenue may be avoided by creating collaboration in pricing strategy to optimize payoff for both players. In MPS cooperative game, players collaborate to set a room rate applied for both players. Cooperative game may avoid unfavorable players’ payoff caused by price war. Researches on horizontal cooperative game in logistics show better performance and payoff for the players, however, horizontal cooperative game in hotel revenue management has not been demonstrated. This paper aims to develop hotel revenue management models under duopoly cooperative schemes (IS & MPS), which are compared to models under non-cooperative scheme too. Each scheme has five models, Capacity Allocation Model; Demand Model; Revenue Model; Optimal Price Model; and Equilibrium Price Model. Capacity Allocation Model and Demand Model employs self-hotel and competitor’s full and discount price as predictors under non-linear relation. Optimal price is obtained by assuming revenue maximization motive. Equilibrium price is observed by interacting self-hotel’s and competitor’s optimal price under reaction equation. Equilibrium is analyzed using game theory approach. The sequence applies for three schemes. MPS Scheme differently aims to optimize total players’ payoff. The case study in which theoretical models are applied observes two hotels offering homogenous product in Indonesia during a year. The Capacity Allocation, Demand, and Revenue Models are built using multiple regression and statistically tested for validation. Case study data confirms that price behaves within demand model in a non-linear manner. IS Models can represent the actual demand and revenue data better than Non-IS Models. Furthermore, IS enables hotels to earn significantly higher revenue. Thus, duopoly hotel players in general, might have reasonable incentives to share information horizontally. During off-peak season, MPS Models are able to predict the optimal equal price for both hotels. However, Nash equilibrium may not always exist depending on actual payoff of adhering or betraying mutual agreement. To optimize performance, horizontal cooperative game may be chosen over non-cooperative game. Mathematical models can be used to detect collusion among business players. Empirical testing can be used as policy input for market regulator in preventing unethical business practices potentially harming society welfare.

Keywords: horizontal cooperative game theory, hotel revenue management, information sharing, mutual price setting

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Authors: Layal Mansour

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The aim of this paper is to identify whether oil price volatility or geopolitical risks can predict future financial stress periods or economic recessions in Kuwait. We construct the first Financial Stress Index for Kuwait (FSIK) that includes informative vulnerable indicators of the main financial sectors: the banking sector, the equities market, and the foreign exchange market. The study covers the period from 2000 to 2020, so it includes the two recent most devastating world economic crises with oil price fluctuation: the Covid-19 pandemic crisis and Ukraine-Russia War. All data are taken by the central bank of Kuwait, the World Bank, IMF, DataStream, and from Federal Reserve System St Louis. The variables are computed as the percentage growth rate, then standardized and aggregated into one index using the variance equal weights method, the most frequently used in the literature. The graphical FSIK analysis provides detailed information (by dates) to policymakers on how internal financial stability depends on internal policy and events such as government elections or resignation. It also shows how monetary authorities or internal policymakers’ decisions to relieve personal loans or increase/decrease the public budget trigger internal financial instability. The empirical analysis under vector autoregression (VAR) models shows the dynamic causal relationship between the oil price fluctuation and the Kuwaiti economy, which relies heavily on the oil price. Similarly, using vector autoregression (VAR) models to assess the impact of the global geopolitical risks on Kuwaiti financial stability, results reveal whether Kuwait is confronted with or sheltered from geopolitical risks. The Financial Stress Index serves as a guide for macroprudential regulators in order to understand the weakness of the overall Kuwaiti financial market and economy regardless of the Kuwaiti dinar strength and exchange rate stability. It helps policymakers predict future stress periods and, thus, address alternative cushions to confront future possible financial threats.

Keywords: Kuwait, financial stress index, causality test, VAR, oil price, geopolitical risks

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Authors: T. Hadj Sadok, R. Hattab Bey, K. Rebiha

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The valuation of juice from prickly pear of Opuntia ficus indica inermis as cocktails appears an attractive alternative because of their nutritional intake and functional compound has anti-radical activity (polyphenols, vitamin C, carotenoids, Betalaines, fiber and minerals). The juice from the fruit pulp is characterized by a high pH 5.85 which makes it difficult for its conservation and preservation requires a thermal treatment at high temperatures (over 100 °C) harmful for bioactive constituents compared to juice orange more acidic and processed at temperatures < 100 °C. The valuation as fig cocktails-orange is particularly interesting thanks to the contribution of polyph2nols, fiber, vitamin C, reducing sugar (sweetener) and betalaine, minerals while allowing lower temperature processing to decrease pH. The heat treatment of these juices: orange alone or in cocktails showed that the antioxidant power decreases by 12% in presence of 30% of juice treated by the heat and of 28 and 32% in the presence of 10 and 20% juice which shows the effect prickly pear juice of Opuntia. During storage for 4 weeks the loss of vitamin C is 40 and 38% in the presence of 10 and 20% juice and 33% in the presence of 30% pear juice parallel, a treatment of stabilization by heat affects relatively the polyphenols rate which decreases from 10.5% to 30% in the cocktail, and 6.11-6.71pour cocktails at 10% and 20%. Vitamin C decreases to 12 to 24 % after a heat treatment at 85°C for 30 minutes respectively for the orange juice and pear juice; this reduction is higher when the juice is in the form of cocktails composed of 10 to 30 % pear juice.

Keywords: prickly pear juice, orange cocktail, polyphenol, Opuntia ficus indica, vitamin

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Authors: Yohanna Panshak

Abstract:

The impact of macroeconomic instability on economic growth and prosperity has been at forefront in many discourses among researchers and policy makers and has generated a lot of controversies over the years. This has generated series of research efforts towards understanding the remote causes of this phenomenon; its nature, determinants and how it can be targeted and mitigated. While others have opined that the root cause of macroeconomic flux in Nigeria is attributed to Oil-Price volatility, others viewed the issue as resulting from some constellation of structural constraints both within and outside the shores of the country. Research works of scholars such as [Akpan (2009), Aliyu (2009), Olomola (2006), etc] argue that oil volatility can determine economic growth or has the potential of doing so. On the contrary, [Darby (1982), Cerralo (2005) etc] share the opinion that it can slow down growth. The earlier argument rest on the understanding that for a net balance of oil exporting economies, price upbeat directly increases real national income through higher export earnings, whereas, the latter allude to the case of net-oil importing countries (which experience price rises, increased input costs, reduced non-oil demand, low investment, fall in tax revenues and ultimately an increase in budget deficit which will further reduce welfare level). Therefore, assessing the precise impact of oil price volatility on virtually any economy is a function of whether it is an oil-exporting or importing nation. Research on oil price volatility and its outcome on the growth of the Nigerian economy are evolving and in a march towards resolving Nigeria’s macroeconomic instability as long as oil revenue still remain the mainstay and driver of socio-economic engineering. Recently, a major importer of Nigeria’s oil- United States made a historic breakthrough in more efficient source of energy for her economy with the capacity of serving significant part of the world. This undoubtedly suggests a threat to the exchange earnings of the country. The need to understand fluctuation in its major export commodity is critical. This paper leans on the Renaissance growth theory with greater focus on theoretical work of Lee (1998); a leading proponent of this school who makes a clear cut of difference between oil price changes and oil price volatility. Based on the above background, the research seeks to empirically examine the impact oil-price volatility on government expenditure using quarterly time series data spanning 1986:1 to 2014:4. Vector Auto Regression (VAR) econometric approach shall be used. The structural properties of the model shall be tested using Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron. Relevant diagnostics tests of heteroscedasticity, serial correlation and normality shall also be carried out. Policy recommendation shall be offered on the empirical findings and believes it assist policy makers not only in Nigeria but the world-over.

Keywords: oil-price, volatility, prosperity, budget, expenditure

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Michael N. O'Sullivan, Con Sheahan

Abstract:

Mass customization is the idea of offering custom products or services to satisfy the needs of each individual customer while maintaining the efficiency of mass production. Technologies like 3D printing and artificial intelligence have many start-ups hoping to capitalize on this dream of creating personalized products at an affordable price, and well established companies scrambling to innovate and maintain their market share. However, the majority of them are failing as they struggle to understand one key question – where does customization make sense? Customization and personalization only make sense where the value of the perceived benefit outweighs the cost to implement it. In other words, will people pay for it? Looking at the Kano Model makes it clear that it depends on the product. In products where customization is an inherent need, like prosthetics, mass customization technologies can be highly beneficial. However, for products that already sell as a standard, like headphones, offering customization is likely only an added bonus, and so the product development team must figure out if the customers’ perception of the added value of this feature will outweigh its premium price tag. This can be done through the use of a ‘serious game,’ whereby potential customers are given a limited budget to collaboratively buy and bid on potential features of the product before it is developed. If the group choose to buy customization over other features, then the product development team should implement it into their design. If not, the team should prioritize the features on which the customers have spent their budget. The level of customization purchased can also be translated to an appropriate production method, for example, the most expensive type of customization would likely be free-form design and could be achieved through digital fabrication, while a lower level could be achieved through short batch production. Twenty-five teams of final year students from design, engineering, construction and technology tested this methodology when bringing a product from concept through to production specification, and found that it allowed them to confidently decide what level of customization, if any, would be worth offering for their product, and what would be the best method of producing it. They also found that the discussion and negotiations between players during the game led to invaluable insights, and often decided to play a second game where they offered customers the option to buy the various customization ideas that had been discussed during the first game.

Keywords: Kano model, mass customization, new product development, serious game

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Kittipong Tripetch

Abstract:

This paper proposes studies of input impedance of two types of the CMOS active inductor. It derives two input impedance formulas. The first formula is the input impedance of a grounded active inductor. The second formula is an input impedance of floating active inductor. After that, these formulas can be used to simulate magnitude and phase response of input impedance as a function of current consumption with MATLAB. Common mode rejection ratio (CMRR) of a fully differential bandpass amplifier is derived based on superposition principle. CMRR as a function of input frequency is plotted as a function of current consumption

Keywords: grounded active inductor, floating active inductor, fully differential bandpass amplifier

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Jingwen Shi, Qi Wu

Abstract:

We study the role played interest rate risk in carry trade return in order to understand the forward premium puzzle. In this study, our goal is to investigate to what extent carry trade return is indeed due to compensation for risk taking and, more important, to reveal the nature of these risks. Using option data not only on exchange rates but also on interest rate swaps (swaptions), our first finding is that, besides the consensus currency risks, interest rate risks also contribute a non-negligible portion to the carry trade return. What strikes us is our second finding. We find that large downside risks of future exchange rate movements are, in fact, priced significantly in option market on interest rates. The role played by interest rate risk differs structurally from the currency risk. There is a unique premium associated with interest rate risk, though seemingly small in size, which compensates the tail risks, the left tail to be precise. On the technical front, our study relies on accurately retrieving implied distributions from currency options and interest rate swaptions simultaneously, especially the tail components of the two. For this purpose, our major modeling work is to build a new international asset pricing model where we use an orthogonal setup for pricing kernels and specify non-Gaussian dynamics in order to capture three sets of option skew accurately and consistently across currency options and interest rate swaptions, domestic and foreign, within one model. Our results open a door for studying forward premium anomaly through implied information from interest rate derivative market.

Keywords: carry trade, forward premium anomaly, FX option, interest rate swaption, implied volatility skew, uncovered interest rate parity

Procedia PDF Downloads 417