Search results for: nonparametric option pricing

Authors: Katja Ignatieva, Patrick Wong

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We investigated the dynamics of high frequency energy prices, including crude oil and electricity prices. The returns of underlying quantities are modelled using various parametric models such as stochastic framework with jumps and stochastic volatility (SVCJ) as well as non-parametric alternatives, which are purely data driven and do not require specification of the drift or the diffusion coefficient function. Using different statistical criteria, we investigate the performance of considered parametric and nonparametric models in their ability to forecast price series and volatilities. Our models incorporate possible seasonalities in the underlying dynamics and utilise advanced estimation techniques for the dynamics of energy prices.

Keywords: stochastic volatility, affine jump-diffusion models, high frequency data, model specification, markov chain monte carlo

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Authors: Eumsin Payan

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The article desires the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to take interest in the policies and give importance to India over other powerful countries in the World, including powerful countries in Asia, comprising of: People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia, and India countries with the ability to drive the Asian continent, specifically, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). (Japan was incapable of stepping up to become the leader of ASEAN due to the fact that Japan has created “wounds” from military history with too many countries in Asia, including wounds from the Greater East Asia War, combining with economic problems Japan is currently facing and also several natural disasters, therefore Japan is not considered a good option of our era.) China appears to be an option that stands out, which could be seen through countless published articles in the general public. However, this article desires to propose India as an option to develop and drive the relationship between ASEAN countries in the future development of Computer Science Technology and allow India to be the leader in driving the Asian Economy in place of China and the United States. As for Russia, its location is distant and apart from South East Asia. Moreover, Russia does not give as much importance to ASEAN. In this light, the author perceives that India already has the “Look East” policy. Therefore, it would be simple for ASEAN to look back at India by simply starting cooperation through policies related to collaboration in the areas of computer science. In effect, this will continuously adjust and improve the relationship towards cooperation in the areas of economics, society, and culture. Referring to the above, the author suggests a word that could be used to call the relationship between India and ASEAN, INSEAN or IN-SEAN. Hereinafter, the author hopes that Thailand, in the position of one in the five founders of ASEAN, could become the leader or be the entity that pushes forward the ASEAN policies that will increase the importance of looking towards India. India is an emerging giant that has the ability to step up in Asia. With the proficient use of English, India is able to pass on the knowledge and drive the ASEAN’s Economic relationship better than China or Russia, as faced with higher language barriers. Moreover, India has cultivated democratic civilization from the colonization of the British Empire, similar to other nations of Southeast Asia, which are familiar with various heritage cultures that the British has brought them. The most important aspect in the author’s perspective is the fact that India is not aggressive and that they have courtesy. Through developing policies of the East through the “Look East” policy, it enabled India to establish a more smooth relationship with Asian countries comparing to China. China has imposed harsh policies towards democracy to the land above the South China Sea, which directly affect the ASEAN countries. From the above reasons, India, therefore, is an appropriate option in the establishment of a closer relationship with ASEAN, as the author has proposed relationship as INSEAN or IN-SEAN.

Keywords: IN-SEAN, INSEAN, look west policy, look east policy, ASEAN, India

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Authors: Ya-Mei Chang

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This research is intended to apply spatio-temporal point process methods to the dengue fever data in Tainan. The spatio-temporal intensity function of the dataset is assumed to be separable. The kernel estimation is a widely used approach to estimate intensity functions. The intensity function is very helpful to study the relation of the spatio-temporal point process and some covariates. The covariate effects might be nonlinear. An nonparametric smoothing estimator is used to detect the nonlinearity of the covariate effects. A fitted parametric model could describe the influence of the covariates to the dengue fever. The correlation between the data points is detected by the K-function. The result of this research could provide useful information to help the government or the stakeholders making decisions.

Keywords: dengue fever, spatial point process, kernel estimation, covariate effect

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Authors: Chen Li-Ching

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The multinomial logistic regression model is used popularly for inferring the relationship of risk factors and disease with multiple categories. This study based on the discrepancy between the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator and semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the cumulative distribution function to propose a Kolmogorov-Smirnov type test statistic to assess adequacy of the multinomial logistic regression model for case-control data. A bootstrap procedure is presented to calculate the critical value of the proposed test statistic. Empirical type I error rates and powers of the test are performed by simulation studies. Some examples will be illustrated the implementation of the test.

Keywords: case-control studies, goodness-of-fit test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, multinomial logistic regression

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Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

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Vibration during machining process is crucial since it affects cutting tool, machine, and workpiece leading to a tool wear, tool breakage, and an unacceptable surface roughness. This paper applies a nonparametric statistical method, single decision tree (SDT), to identify factors affecting on vibration in machining process. Workpiece material (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 Aluminum alloy, A48-class30 Gray Cast Iron), cutting tool (conventional, cutting tool with holes in toolholder, cutting tool filled up with epoxy-granite), tool overhang (41-65 mm), spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev) and depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) were used as input variables, while vibration was the output parameter. It is concluded that workpiece material is the most important parameters for natural frequency followed by cutting tool and overhang.

Keywords: cutting condition, vibration, natural frequency, decision tree, CART algorithm

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Authors: Alinka Molnár-Tóth, Tímea Tánczos, Regina Barna, Katalin Jakab, Péter Klivényi

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Supported by neuroscientific findings, the so-called Hub-and-Spoke model of the human semantic system is based on two subcomponents of semantic cognition, namely the semantic control process and semantic representation. Our semantic knowledge is multimodal in nature, as the knowledge system stored in relation to a conception is extensive and broad, while different aspects of the conception may be relevant depending on the purpose. The motivation of our research is to develop a new diagnostic measurement procedure based on the preservation of semantic representation, which is appropriate to the specificities of the Hungarian language and which can be used to compare the non-verbal semantic knowledge of healthy and aphasic persons. The development of the test will broaden the Hungarian clinical diagnostic toolkit, which will allow for more specific therapy planning. The sample of healthy persons (n=480) was determined by the last census data for the representativeness of the sample. Based on the concept of the Pyramids and Palm Tree Test, and according to the characteristics of the Hungarian language, we have elaborated a test based on different types of semantic information, in which the subjects are presented with three pictures: they have to choose the one that best fits the target word above from the two lower options, based on the semantic relation defined. We have measured 5 types of semantic knowledge representations: associative relations, taxonomy, motional representations, concrete as well as abstract verbs. As the first step in our data analysis, we examined the normal distribution of our results, and since it was not normally distributed (p < 0.05), we used nonparametric statistics further into the analysis. Using descriptive statistics, we could determine the frequency of the correct and incorrect responses, and with this knowledge, we could later adjust and remove the items of questionable reliability. The reliability was tested using Cronbach’s α, and it can be safely said that all the results were in an acceptable range of reliability (α = 0.6-0.8). We then tested for the potential gender differences using the Mann Whitney-U test, however, we found no difference between the two (p < 0.05). Likewise, we didn’t see that the age had any effect on the results using one-way ANOVA (p < 0.05), however, the level of education did influence the results (p > 0.05). The relationships between the subtests were observed by the nonparametric Spearman’s rho correlation matrix, showing statistically significant correlation between the subtests (p > 0.05), signifying a linear relationship between the measured semantic functions. A margin of error of 5% was used in all cases. The research will contribute to the expansion of the clinical diagnostic toolkit and will be relevant for the individualised therapeutic design of treatment procedures. The use of a non-verbal test procedure will allow an early assessment of the most severe language conditions, which is a priority in the differential diagnosis. The measurement of reaction time is expected to advance prodrome research, as the tests can be easily conducted in the subclinical phase.

Keywords: communication disorders, diagnostic toolkit, neurorehabilitation, semantic knowlegde

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Authors: Mohammed S. Assiri

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In EFL programs, rating scales used in writing assessment are often constructed by intuition. Intuition-based scales tend to provide inaccurate and divisive ratings of learners’ writing performance. Hence, following an empirical approach, this study attempted to develop a rating scale for elementary-level writing at an EFL program in Saudi Arabia. Towards this goal, 98 students’ essays were scored and then coded using comprehensive taxonomy of writing constructs and their measures. An automatic linear modeling was run to find out which measures would best predict essay scores. A nonparametric ANOVA, the Kruskal-Wallis test, was then used to determine which measures could best differentiate among scoring levels. Findings indicated that there were certain measures that could serve as either good predictors of essay scores or differentiators among scoring levels, or both. The main conclusion was that a rating scale can be empirically developed using predictive and discriminative statistical tests.

Keywords: analytic scoring, rating scales, writing assessment, writing constructs, writing performance

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Authors: E. Channol, O. Collet, N. Kostyuchyk, T. Mesbah, Quoc Hoang Long Nguyen

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In this paper, a pricing model is proposed for co-integrated commodities extending Larsson model. The futures formulae have been derived and tests have been performed with non-constant volatility. The model has been applied to energy commodities (gas, CO2, energy) and soft commodities (corn, wheat). Results show that non-constant volatility leads to more accurate short term prices, which provides better evaluation of value-at-risk and more generally improve the risk management.

Keywords: co-integration, soft commodities, risk management, value-at-risk

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Authors: Taisier A. Zoubi, Feras Salama, Mahmud Hossain, Yass A. Alkafaji

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The purpose of this study is to examine the equity pricing of other comprehensive income when earnings are disaggregated into several components. Our findings indicate that other comprehensive income can better explain variation in stock returns when net income is reported in a disaggregated form. Additionally, we found that disaggregating both net income and other comprehensive income can explain more of the variation in the stock returns than the two summary components of comprehensive income. Our results survive a series of robustness checks.

Keywords: market valuation, other comprehensive income, value-relevance, incremental information content

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Authors: Md. Mizanur Rahman, Chu Chi Ming, Mohd Suffian Bin Misaran

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Chimney is an important part of the industries to remove waste heat from the processes side to the atmosphere. The increased demand of energy helps to restart to think about the efficiency of chimney as well as to find out a valid option to replace forced draft chimney system from industries. In this study natural draft chimney model is air flow rate; exit air temperature and pressure losses are studied through modification with wire mesh screen and compare the results with without wire mesh screen chimney model. The heat load is varies from 0.1 kW to 1kW and three different wire mesh screens that have pore size 0.15 mm2, 0.40 mm2 and 4.0 mm2 respectively are used. The experimental results show that natural draft chimney model with wire mesh screens significantly restored the flow losses compared to the system without wire mesh screen. The natural draft chimney model with 0.40 mm2 pore size wire mesh screen can minimize the draft losses better than others and able to enhance velocity about 54 % exit air temperature about 41% and pressure loss decreased by about 20%. Therefore, it can be decided that the wire mesh screens significantly minimize the draft losses in the natural draft chimney and 0.40 mm2 pore size screen will be a suitable option.

Keywords: natural draft dhimney, wire mesh screen, natural draft flow, mechanical engineering

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Authors: Hatem Abou-Senna

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Interstate 4 (I-4) is a primary east-west transportation corridor between Tampa and Daytona cities, serving commuters, commercial and recreational traffic. I-4 is known to have severe recurring congestion during peak hours. The congestion spans about 11 miles in the evening peak period in the central corridor area as it is considered the only non-tolled limited access facility connecting the Orlando Central Business District (CBD) and the tourist attractions area (Walt Disney World). Florida officials had been skeptical of tolling I-4 prior to the recent legislation, and the public through the media had been complaining about the excessive toll facilities in Central Florida. So, in search for plausible mitigation to the congestion on the I-4 corridor, this research is implemented to evaluate the effectiveness of different toll pricing alternatives that might divert traffic from I-4 to the toll facilities during the peak period. The network is composed of two main diverging limited access highways, freeway (I-4) and toll road (SR 417) in addition to two east-west parallel toll roads SR 408 and SR 528, intersecting the above-mentioned highways from both ends. I-4 and toll road SR 408 are the most frequently used route by commuters. SR-417 is a relatively uncongested toll road with 15 miles longer than I-4 and $5 tolls compared to no monetary cost on 1-4 for the same trip. The results of the calibrated Orlando PARAMICS network showed that percentages of route diversion vary from one route to another and depends primarily on the travel cost between specific origin-destination (O-D) pairs. Most drivers going from Disney (O1) or Lake Buena Vista (O2) to Lake Mary (D1) were found to have a high propensity towards using I-4, even when eliminating tolls and/or providing real-time information. However, a diversion from I-4 to SR 417 for these OD pairs occurred only in the cases of the incident and lane closure on I-4, due to the increase in delay and travel costs, and when information is provided to travelers. Furthermore, drivers that diverted from I-4 to SR 417 and SR 528 did not gain significant travel-time savings. This was attributed to the limited extra capacity of the alternative routes in the peak period and the longer traveling distance. When the remaining origin-destination pairs were analyzed, average travel time savings on I-4 ranged between 10 and 16% amounting to 10 minutes at the most with a 10% increase in the network average speed. High propensity of diversion on the network increased significantly when eliminating tolls on SR 417 and SR 528 while doubling the tolls on SR 408 along with the incident and lane closure scenarios on I-4 and with real-time information provided. The toll roads were found to be a viable alternative to I-4 for these specific OD pairs depending on the user perception of the toll cost which was reflected in their specific travel times. However, on the macroscopic level, it was concluded that route diversion through toll reduction or elimination on surrounding toll roads would only have a minimum impact on reducing I-4 congestion during the peak period.

Keywords: congestion pricing, dynamic feedback assignment, microsimulation, paramics, route diversion

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Authors: Vinícius L. L. Morrone, David Douek, Helder M. F. Pereira, Bernadete L. M. Grandolpho

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This work aimed to identify the relationships between the level of consumer environmental awareness and their search for sustainable properties, as well as to understand the main sustainability structures considered by these consumers during the decision process. Additionally, the paper looked up to the influence environmental awareness and financial status have over the disposition of buyers to pay more for sustainable properties. To achieve these objectives, 318 questionnaires were answered electronically, after being sent to the Green Building Brazil email basis, as to other Real Estate developers client basis. From all the questionnaires answered, 71 were discarded, leaving a total amount of 247 admitted questionnaires to be analyzed. The responses were evaluated based on the theory of consumer decision making, especially on the influence factors of this process. The data were processed using a PLS model, using the R software. The results have shown that the level of consumer environmental awareness effectively affects the consumer’s will of acquiring a sustainable property or, at least, a property with some environmental friendly structures. The consumer’s environmental awareness also positively impacts the importance consumers give to individual environmental friendly structures. Also, as a consumer value to those individual structures raises, it is also observed a raise in his will to buy a sustainable property. Additionally, the impact of consumer’s environmental awareness and financial status over the willingness to pay more for a property with those attributes. The results indicate that there was no relationship between consumers' environmental awareness and their willingness to pay more for a sustainable property. On the other hand, the financial status and the family income of the consumers showed a positive relation with the willingness to pay more for a sustainable property. This indicates that consumers with better financial conditions, which according to the analysis do not necessarily have a greater environmental awareness, are those who are willing to pay more for a sustainable property. Thus, this study indicates that, even if the environmental awareness impact positively the demand for sustainable structures and properties, this impact is not price reflected, due to the price elasticity of the consumption, especially for a category of lower income consumers. This paper adds to the literature in the way it projects some guidelines to the consumer’s decision process in the Real Estate market in emerging economies, as well as it presents some drivers to pricing decisions.

Keywords: consumer behavior, environmental awareness, real estate pricing, sustainable buildings

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Authors: Piyush Bajpai, Sneha Pandey

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Mumbai’s Dhobighat, 150 year old largest open laundry in the world, is the true live-work place and only source of income for some of Mumbai’s highest density ‘urban poor’ residents. The regeneration of Dhobighat, due to its ultra prime location and complex socio-political culture has been a complex issue. This once flourishing urban industrial core has been degrading for the past several decades mainly due to the decline of the open laundry business, the site’s over burdened infrastructure and conflicting socio-political and economic forces. The phenomena of ‘exaptation’ or ‘co-option’ has been observed by evolutionary biologists as a process responsible for producing highly tenacious and resilient offsprings within a species. The reddish egret uses its wings to cast shadow in shallow waters to attract small fish and hunt them. An unrelated feature used opportunistically to produce a very favorable result. How can this idea of co-option be applied to resolve the complex issue of Dhobighat’s regeneration? Our paper proposes a new methodology/approach for the regeneration of Dhobighat through the lens of evolutionary biology. Forces and systems (social, political, economic, cultural and ecological) that seem conflicting or unrelated by nature are opportunistically transformed into symbiotic and complimentary relationships that produce an inclusive, resilient and holistic solution for the regeneration of Dhobighat.

Keywords: urban regeneration, exaptation, resilience, Dhobighat, Mumbai

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Authors: Abdel-Razzaq Mugdadi, Ruqayyah Sani

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The Kernel Distribution Function Estimator (KDFE) method is the most popular method for nonparametric estimation of the cumulative distribution function. The kernel and the bandwidth are the most important components of this estimator. In this investigation, we replace the kernel in the KDFE with a linear combination of kernels to obtain a new estimator based on the linear combination of kernels, the mean integrated squared error (MISE), asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) and the asymptotically optimal bandwidth for the new estimator are derived. We propose a new data-based method to select the bandwidth for the new estimator. The new technique is based on the Plug-in technique in density estimation. We evaluate the new estimator and the new technique using simulations and real-life data.

Keywords: estimation, bandwidth, mean square error, cumulative distribution function

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Authors: Natanya Meyer, Johann Landsberg

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Unemployment among the youth is a significant problem in South Africa. Large corporations and the public sector simply cannot create enough jobs. Too many youths in South Africa currently do not consider entrepreneurship as an option in order to become independent. Unlike the youth of the Netherlands, South African youth prefer to find employment in the public or private sector. The Netherlands has a much lower unemployment rate than South Africa and the Dutch are generally very entrepreneurial. From early on entrepreneurship is considered a desirable career option in the Netherlands. The purpose of this study was to determine whether there is a difference in the perceptions of some Dutch and South African students in terms of unemployment and entrepreneurship. Questionnaires were distributed to students at the North West University's Vaal Triangle campus in Vanderbijlpark in Gauteng, South Africa and the Technical University of Delft in the Netherlands. A descriptive statistical analysis approach was followed and the means for the independent questions were calculated. The results demonstrate that the Dutch students are not as concerned about unemployment after completion of their studies as this is not as significant a problem as it is in South Africa. Both groups had positive responses towards the posed questions, but the South African group felt more strongly about the issues. Both groups of students felt that there was a need for more practical entrepreneurship training. The South African education system should focus on practical entrepreneurship training from a young age.

Keywords: entrepreneurship development, entrepreneurship development programmes, entrepreneurship intention, Netherlands, South Africa, unemployment

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Authors: Igna Brajević Gizdić, Gorka Vuletić

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Introduction: Addiction is a chronic brain relapsing disorder. Opioid Substitution Therapy (OST) using buprenorphine as a medical treatment option shows as a promising option for achieving and maintaining abstinence in opioid-addicted patients. This research aimed to determine and evaluate the quality of life (QoL) in opiate-addicted patients after five years of buprenorphine therapy. Method: The total sample included 44 buprenorphine-maintained opiate addicts in outpatient treatment. The participants were administered the QoL questionnaire (WHOQOL-BREF) at two-time points (T1 and T2) with an interval of at least five years. WHOQOL-BREF contains a total of 26 questions. The first two questions, related to overall QoL and general health status, and the remaining questions (3–26), which represented four domains—physical, psychological, social, and environmental health—were evaluated separately. Results: The results indicated no significant differences in overall self-assessed QoL nor in individual domains after five years (T2) of abstinence with OST buprenorphine- maintenance. Conclusion: These findings indicated no improvement in QoL of buprenorphine-maintenance opiate addicts in outpatient treatment. However, this might be due to the smaller sample size and participants' overall high scores in QoL at T1. This study suggests the importance of expectations when considering the QoL and general health of buprenorphine-maintenance opiate addicts in outpatient treatment.

Keywords: abstinence, addicts, buprenorphine, opioid substitution therapy, quality of life

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Authors: Adilah Abdul Ghapor, Yong Zulina Zubairi, A. H. M. R. Imon

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Missing value problem is common in statistics and has been of interest for years. This article considers two modern techniques in handling missing data for linear functional relationship model (LFRM) namely the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm and Expectation-Maximization with Bootstrapping (EMB) algorithm using three performance indicators; namely the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and estimated biased (EB). In this study, we applied the methods of imputing missing values in two types of LFRM namely the full model of LFRM and in LFRM when the slope is estimated using a nonparametric method. Results of the simulation study suggest that EMB algorithm performs much better than EM algorithm in both models. We also illustrate the applicability of the approach in a real data set.

Keywords: expectation-maximization, expectation-maximization with bootstrapping, linear functional relationship model, performance indicators

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Authors: Jianlin Wang, Jiajia Zhao

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This paper applies the theory and empirical method to examine the relationship between electricity price and coal price, as well as electricity and industry output, for China during Jan 1999-Dec 2012. Our results indicate that there is no any causality between coal price and electricity price under other factors are controlled. However, we found a bi-directional causality between electricity consumption and industry output. Overall, the electricity price set by China’s NDRC is inefficient, which lead to the electricity supply shortage after 2004. It is time to reform electricity price system for China’s reformers.

Keywords: electricity price, coal price, power supply, China

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Authors: Demisash, Abate Getnet, Gudisa, Ababo Geleta, Daba, Berhane Olani

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As consumption trends of fish are rising in Ethiopia, assessment of the environmental performance of Fisheries becomes vital. Hence, Cleaner Production Assessment was conducted on Lake Tana No.1 Fish Supply Association. This paper focuses on determining the characteristics, quantity, and setting up cleaner production options for the site with the experimental investigation. The survey analysis showed that illegal waste dumping in Lake Tana is common practice in the area, and some of the main reasons raised were they have no option than doing this for dis-charging fish wastes. Quantifying a fish waste by examination of records at the point of generation resulted in a generation rate of 72,822.61 kg per year, which is a significant amount of waste and needs management system. The result of the proximate analysis showed high free fat content of about 12.33%, and this was a good candidate for the production of biodiesel that has been set as an option for fish waste utilization. Among the different waste management options, waste reduction by product optimization, which involves biodiesel production, was chosen as a potential method. Laboratory scale experiments were performed to produce a renewable energy source from the wastes. The resulting biodiesel was characterized and found to have a density of 0.756kg/L, viscosity 0.24p, and 153°C flashpoints, which shows the product has values in compliance with the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards.

Keywords: biodiesel, cleaner production, renewable energy, waste management

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Authors: Zhongzhen Luo, Saeid Habibi, Martin v. Mohrenschildt

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Self-driving vehicle require a high level of situational awareness in order to maneuver safely when driving in real world condition. This paper presents a LiDAR based real time perception system that is able to process sensor raw data for multiple target detection and tracking in dynamic environment. The proposed algorithm is nonparametric and deterministic that is no assumptions and priori knowledge are needed from the input data and no initializations are required. Additionally, the proposed method is working on the three-dimensional data directly generated by LiDAR while not scarifying the rich information contained in the domain of 3D. Moreover, a fast and efficient for real time clustering algorithm is applied based on a radially bounded nearest neighbor (RBNN). Hungarian algorithm procedure and adaptive Kalman filtering are used for data association and tracking algorithm. The proposed algorithm is able to run in real time with average run time of 70ms per frame.

Keywords: lidar, segmentation, clustering, tracking

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Authors: Aniket S. Joshi, Aditya R. Mane, Arjun Tukaram

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In the 21st century, in the era of e-world, people are continuously getting updated by daily information such as weather conditions, news, stock exchange market updates, new projects, cricket updates, sports and other such applications. In the busy situation, they want this information on the little use of keyboard, time. Today in order to get such information user have to repeat same mouse and keyboard actions which includes time and inconvenience. In India due to rural background many people are not much familiar about the use of computer and internet also. Also in small clinics, small offices, and hotels and in the airport there should be a system which retrieves daily information with the minimum use of keyboard and mouse actions. We plan to design application based project that can easily retrieve information with minimum use of keyboard and mouse actions and make our task more convenient and easier. This can be possible with an image processing application which takes real time hand gestures which will get matched by system and retrieve information. Once selected the functions with hand gestures, the system will report action information to user. In this project we use real time hand gesture movements to select required option which is stored on the screen in the form of RSS Feeds. Gesture will select the required option and the information will be popped and we got the information. A real time hand gesture makes the application handier and easier to use.

Keywords: hand detection, hand tracking, hand gesture recognition, HSV color model, Blob detection

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Authors: Athina Thanou, Eirini Eleni Tsiropoulou, Symeon Papavassiliou

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The problem of museum visitor experience and congestion management – in various forms - has come increasingly under the spotlight over the last few years, since overcrowding can significantly decrease the quality of visitors’ experience. Evidence suggests that on busy days the amount of time a visitor spends inside a crowded house museum can fall by up to 60% compared to a quiet mid-week day. In this paper we consider the aforementioned problem, by treating museums as evolving social systems that induce constraints. However, in a cultural heritage space, as opposed to the majority of social environments, the momentum of the experience is primarily controlled by the visitor himself. Visitors typically behave selfishly regarding the maximization of their own Quality of Experience (QoE) - commonly expressed through a utility function that takes several parameters into consideration, with crowd density and waiting/visiting time being among the key ones. In such a setting, congestion occurs when either the utility of one visitor decreases due to the behavior of other persons, or when costs of undertaking an activity rise due to the presence of other persons. We initially investigate how visitors’ behavioral risk attitudes, as captured and represented by prospect theory, affect their decisions in resource sharing settings, where visitors’ decisions and experiences are strongly interdependent. Different from the majority of existing studies and literature, we highlight that visitors are not risk neutral utility maximizers, but they demonstrate risk-aware behavior according to their personal risk characteristics. In our work, exhibits are organized into two groups: a) “safe exhibits” that correspond to less congested ones, where the visitors receive guaranteed satisfaction in accordance with the visiting time invested, and b) common pool of resources (CPR) exhibits, which are the most popular exhibits with possibly increased congestion and uncertain outcome in terms of visitor satisfaction. A key difference is that the visitor satisfaction due to CPR strongly depends not only on the invested time decision of a specific visitor, but also on that of the rest of the visitors. In the latter case, the over-investment in time, or equivalently the increased congestion potentially leads to “exhibit failure”, interpreted as the visitors gain no satisfaction from their observation of this exhibit due to high congestion. We present a framework where each visitor in a distributed manner determines his time investment in safe or CPR exhibits to optimize his QoE. Based on this framework, we analyze and evaluate how visitors, acting as prospect-theoretic decision-makers, respond and react to the various pricing policies imposed by the museum curators. Based on detailed evaluation results and experiments, we present interesting observations, regarding the impact of several parameters and characteristics such as visitor heterogeneity and use of alternative pricing policies, on scalability, user satisfaction, museum capacity, resource fragility, and operation point stability. Furthermore, we study and present the effectiveness of alternative pricing mechanisms, when used as implicit tools, to deal with the congestion management problem in the museums, and potentially decrease the exhibit failure probability (fragility), while considering the visitor risk preferences.

Keywords: museum resource and visitor management, congestion management, propsect theory, cyber physical social systems

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Authors: Amer Ait Sidhoum

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Interest in sustainability has gained ground among practitioners, academics and policy-makers due to growing stakeholders’ awareness of environmental and social concerns. This is particularly true for agriculture. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the quantification of social sustainability and the contribution of social issues to the agricultural production efficiency. This research's main objective is to propose a method for evaluating prices of social outputs, more precisely shadow prices, by allowing for the stochastic nature of agricultural production that is to say for production uncertainty. In this article, the assessment of social outputs’ shadow prices is conducted within the methodological framework of nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). An output-oriented directional distance function (DDF) is implemented to represent the technology of a sample of Catalan arable crop farms and derive the efficiency scores the overall production technology of our sample is assumed to be the intersection of two different sub-technologies. The first sub-technology models the production of random desirable agricultural outputs, while the second sub-technology reflects the social outcomes from agricultural activities. Once a nonparametric production technology has been represented, the DDF primal approach can be used for efficiency measurement, while shadow prices are drawn from the dual representation of the DDF. Computing shadow prices is a method to assign an economic value to non-marketed social outcomes. Our research uses cross sectional, farm-level data collected in 2015 from a sample of 180 Catalan arable crop farms specialized in the production of cereals, oilseeds and protein (COP) crops. Our results suggest that our sample farms show high performance scores, from 85% for the bad state of nature to 88% for the normal and ideal crop growing conditions. This suggests that farm performance is increasing with an improvement in crop growth conditions. Results also show that average shadow prices of desirable state-contingent output and social outcomes for efficient and inefficient farms are positive, suggesting that the production of desirable marketable outputs and of non-marketable outputs makes a positive contribution to the farm production efficiency. Results also indicate that social outputs’ shadow prices are contingent upon the growing conditions. The shadow prices follow an upward trend as crop-growing conditions improve. This finding suggests that these efficient farms prefer to allocate more resources in the production of desirable outputs than of social outcomes. To our knowledge, this study represents the first attempt to compute shadow prices of social outcomes while accounting for the stochastic nature of the production technology. Our findings suggest that the decision-making process of the efficient farms in dealing with social issues are stochastic and strongly dependent on the growth conditions. This implies that policy-makers should adjust their instruments according to the stochastic environmental conditions. An optimal redistribution of rural development support, by increasing the public payment with the improvement in crop growth conditions, would likely enhance the effectiveness of public policies.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, shadow prices, social sustainability, sustainable farming

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou

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Considering a worldwide tendency, air transports are growing very fast and many changes have taken place in planning, management and decision making process. Given the complexity of airport operation, the best use of existing capacity is the key driver of efficiency and productivity. This paper deals with the evaluation framework for the ground access at airports, by using a set of mode choice indicators providing key messages towards airport’s ground access performance. The application presents results for a sample of 12 European airports, illustrating recommendations to define policy and improve service for the air transport access chain.

Keywords: airport ground access, air transport chain, airport access performance, airport policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Serge Provost, Yishan Zang

Abstract:

Copulas are currently utilized in finance, reliability theory, machine learning, signal processing, geodesy, hydrology and biostatistics, among several other fields of scientific investigation. It follows from Sklar's theorem that the joint distribution function of a multidimensional random vector can be expressed in terms of its associated copula and marginals. Since marginal distributions can easily be determined by making use of a variety of techniques, we address the problem of securing the distribution of the copula. This will be done by using several approaches. For example, we will obtain bivariate least-squares approximations of the empirical copulas, modify the kernel density estimation technique and propose a criterion for selecting appropriate bandwidths, differentiate linearized empirical copulas, secure Bernstein polynomial approximations of suitable degrees, and apply a corollary to Sklar's result. Illustrative examples involving actual observations will be presented. The proposed methodologies will as well be applied to a sample generated from a known copula distribution in order to validate their effectiveness.

Keywords: copulas, Bernstein polynomial approximation, least-squares polynomial approximation, kernel density estimation, density approximation

Procedia PDF Downloads 44

Authors: S. J. M. Mohd Saleh, S. Guo

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Composite materials have become an important option for the primary structure of aircraft due to their design flexibility and ability to improve the overall performance. At present, the option for composite usage in aircraft component is largely based on experience, knowledge, benchmarking and partly market driven. An inevitable iterative design during the design stage and validation process will increase the development time and cost. This paper aims at presenting the correlation between laminate and composite thin-wall beam structure, which contains the theoretical and numerical investigations on stiffness estimation of composite aerostructures with applications to aircraft wings. Classical laminate theory and thin-walled beam theory were applied to define the correlation between 1-dimensional composite laminate and 2-dimensional composite beam structure, respectively. Then FE model was created to represent the 3-dimensional structure. A detailed study on stiffness matrix of composite laminates has been carried out to understand the effects of stacking sequence on the coupling between extension, shear, bending and torsional deformation of wing box structures for 1-dimensional, 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional structures. Relationships amongst composite laminates and composite wing box structures of the same material have been developed in this study. These correlations will be guidelines for the design engineers to predict the stiffness of the wing box structure during the material selection process and laminate design stage.

Keywords: aircraft design, aircraft structures, classical lamination theory, composite structures, laminate theory, structural design, thin-walled beam theory, wing box design

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Kingsley Okoro Nwannennaya

Abstract:

The 21st century seems to have been eclipsed by social conflict, giving vent to a mentality construct that accepts conflict as inextricable part of the social system. This is justified by the escalation of conflict in all the zones of the world. We therefore, query whether a peaceful society is a mere illusion? It is in an attempt to give lucid answer to this question that the researcher began critical investigations on various peace building and conflict management models. Here the researcher discovered that these models as good as they may be have not addressed the root of conflicts which revolves on the social structure in place in any society. Hence the current social structure is organized around class system, which gave birth to competition, greed, selfishness, power struggle etc. and also promotes mono-culture based on Euro-American traditions. This placed some cultures on a disadvantageous position, with conflict as its outgrowth. However, the researcher being interested to finding a peace building and conflict management model that will address this gap discovered that Taoism has the seed that can offer the world the desired peace. This tradition anchors on the principles of Tao, Yin-yang and Wu-wei. Basic to the trio concepts are the idea of Pluralism, non-interference, non-action and flowing with the order of nature. This paper, having adopted, historical and sociological methods of investigations opines that if Taoist tradition shall be adopted as a peace building model, the desired peace of our dream shall soon become a reality.

Keywords: critical option, oriental traditions, peace initiative, taoism

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: S. Doyle, G. A. Aggidis

Abstract:

Wave energy converter technologies continue to show good progress in worldwide research. One of the most researched technologies, the Oscillating Water Column (OWC), is arguably one of the most popular categories within the converter technologies due to its robustness, simplicity and versatility. However, the versatility of the OWC is still largely untapped with most deployments following similar trends with respect to applications and operating systems. As the competitiveness of the energy market continues to increase, the demand for wave energy technologies to be innovative also increases. For existing wave energy technologies, this requires identifying areas to diversify for lower costs of energy with respect to applications and synergies or integrated systems. This paper provides a review of all OWCs systems integrated into alternative applications in the past and present. The aspects and variation in their design, deployment and system operation are discussed. Particular focus is given to the Multi-OWCs (M-OWCs) and their great potential to increase capture on a larger scale, especially in synergy applications. It is made clear that these steps need to be taken in order to make wave energy a competitive and viable option in the renewable energy mix as progression to date shows that stand alone single function devices are not economical. Findings reveal that the trend of development is moving toward these integrated applications in order to reduce the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) and will ultimately continue in this direction in efforts to make wave energy a competitive option in the renewable energy mix.

Keywords: wave energy converter, oscillating water column, ocean energy, renewable energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Fatma Romeh, Shiferaw Gurmu

Abstract:

This paper examines the impact of female education on fertility, using the change in length of primary schooling in Egypt in 1988-89 as the source of exogenous variation in schooling. In particular, beginning in 1988, children had to attend primary school for only five years rather than six years. This change was applicable to all individuals born on or after October 1977. Using a nonparametric regression discontinuity approach, we compare education and fertility of women born just before and after October 1977. The results show that female education significantly reduces the number of children born per woman and delays the time until first birth. Applying a robust regression discontinuity approach, however, the impact of education on the number of children is no longer significant. The impact on the timing of first birth remained significant under the robust approach. Each year of female education postponed childbearing by three months, on average.

Keywords: Egypt, female education, fertility, robust regression discontinuity

Procedia PDF Downloads 311

Authors: Oriyomi M. Okeyinka, David A. Oloke, Jamal M. Khatib

Abstract:

Large quantities of solid wastes being generated worldwide from sources such as household, domestic, industrial, commercial and construction demolition activities, leads to environmental concerns. Utilization of these wastes in making building construction materials can reduce the magnitude of the associated problems. When these waste products are used in place of other conventional materials, natural resources and energy are preserved and expensive and/or potentially harmful waste disposal is avoided. Recycling which is regarded as the third most preferred waste disposal option, with its numerous environmental benefits, stand as a viable option to offset the environmental impact associated with the construction industry. This paper reviews the results of laboratory tests and important research findings, and the potential of using these wastes in building construction materials with focus on sustainable development. Research gaps, which includes; the need to develop standard mix design for solid waste based building materials; the need to develop energy efficient method of processing solid waste use in concrete; the need to study the actual behavior or performance of such building materials in practical application and the limited real life application of such building materials have also been identified. Therefore a research is being proposed to develop an environmentally friendly, lightweight building block from recycled waste paper, without the use of cement, and with properties suitable for use as walling unit. This proposed research intends to incorporate, laboratory experimentation and modeling to address the identified research gaps.

Keywords: recycling, solid wastes, construction, building materials

Procedia PDF Downloads 361