Search results for: natural hazard management

Authors: Souad Romdhane, Lotfi Belkacem

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When referring to actuarial analysis of lifetime, only models accounting for observable risk factors have been developed. Within this context, Cox proportional hazards model (CPH model) is commonly used to assess the effects of observable covariates as gender, age, smoking habits, on the hazard rates. These covariates may fail to fully account for the true lifetime interval. This may be due to the existence of another random variable (frailty) that is still being ignored. The aim of this paper is to examine the shared frailty issue in the Cox proportional hazard model by including two different parametric forms of frailty into the hazard function. Four estimated methods are used to fit them. The performance of the parameter estimates is assessed and compared between the classical Cox model and these frailty models through a real-life data set from the Quebec Pension Plan and then using a more general simulation study. This performance is investigated in terms of the bias of point estimates and their empirical standard errors in both fixed and random effect parts. Both the simulation and the real dataset studies showed differences between classical Cox model and shared frailty model.

Keywords: life insurance-pension plan, survival analysis, risk factors, cox proportional hazards model, multivariate failure-time data, shared frailty, simulations study

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Authors: Hui-Chen Tsai, Chien-Jen Ho, Bo-Wei Power Liang, Ying Shen, Yi-Hsin Lai

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Former Taiwan Metal Mining Corporation and its associated 3 wasted flue gas tunnels, hereinafter referred to as 'TMMC', was contaminated with heavy metals, Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPHs) in soil. Since the contamination had been exposed and unmanaged in the environment for more than 40 years, the extent of the contamination area is estimated to be more than 25 acres. Additionally, TMMC is located in a remote, mountainous area where almost no residents are residing in the 1-km radius area. Thus, it was deemed necessary to conduct an ecological risk assessment in order to evaluate the details of future contaminated site management plan. According to the winter and summer, ecological investigation results, one type of endangered, multiple vulnerable and near threaten plant was discovered, as well as numerous other protected species, such as Crested Serpent Eagle, Crested Goshawk, Black Kite, Brown Shrike, Taiwan Blue Magpie were observed. Ecological soil screening level (Eco-SSLs) developed by USEPA was adopted as a reference to conduct screening assessment. Since all the protected species observed surrounding TMMC site were birds, screening ecological risk assessment was conducted on birds only. The assessment was assessed mainly based on the chemical evaluation, which the contamination in different environmental media was compared directly with the ecological impact levels (EIL) of each evaluation endpoints and the respective hazard quotient (HQ) and hazard index (HI) could be obtained. The preliminary ecological risk assessment results indicated HI is greater than 1. In other words, the biological stressors (birds) were exposed to the contamination, which was already exceeded the dosage that could cause unacceptable impacts to the ecological system. This result was mainly due to the high concentration of arsenic, metal and lead; thus it was suggested the above mention contaminants should be remediated as soon as possible or proper risk management measures should be taken.

Keywords: screening, ecological risk assessment, ecological impact levels, risk management

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Authors: Darius Phiri, Moses Chibesa, Donald Zulu, Robby Kasubika

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In Zambia, wildlife is co-managed by Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA) and the local communities by sharing management responsibilities and benefits derived from harvesting wildlife resources under a benefit sharing mechanism. Although the benefit sharing mechanism has been formulated under good principles, it is still facing numerous challenges. In response to these challenges, a study on the sustainability of ZAWA benefit sharing mechanism was carried out in order to assess its potential and continuity in line with community empowerment and wildlife resources management. Systematic sampling was used with a sampling intensity of 4% to administer three types of questionnaires to community members in Mumbwa Game Management Area (GMA), ZAWA officers, and to the Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources (MTENR) staffs. The collected data was then analysed using SPSS version 16.5. The findings indicated that many people in the GMA do not participate fully because of lacking satisfactory benefits. However, the mechanism contribute to the community well-being and can still remain sustainable especially if measures to address the current challenges are put in place.

Keywords: benefit sharing, concessions, licenses, poaching, local communities, sustainability

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Authors: Ilme Faridatul, Bo Wu

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Bangladesh is often called as a motherland of rivers. It contains about 700 rivers among all these the Padma River is one of the largest rivers of Bangladesh. The change of river bank and erosion has become a common environmental natural hazard in Bangladesh. The river banks are under intense pressure from natural processes such as erosion and accretion as well as anthropogenic processes such as urban growth and pollution. The Padma River is flowing along ten districts of Bangladesh among all these Faridpur district is most vulnerable to river bank erosion. The severity of the river erosion is so high that each year a thousand of populations become homeless and lose their agricultural lands. Though the Faridpur district is most vulnerable to river bank erosion no specific research has been conducted to identify the changing pattern of river bank along this district. The outcome of the research may serve as guidance to prepare river bank monitoring program and management. This research has utilized integrated techniques of remote sensing and geographic information system to monitor the changes from 1995 to 2015 at Faridpur district. To discriminate the land water interface Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) algorithm is applied and on screen digitization approach is used over MNDWI images of 1995, 2002 and 2015 for river bank line extraction. The extent of changes in the river bank along Faridpur district is estimated through overlaying the digitized maps of all three years. The river bank lines are highlighted to infer the erosion and accretion and the changes are calculated. The result shows that the middle of the river is gaining land through sedimentation and the both side river bank is shifting causing severe erosion that consequently resulting the loss of farmland and homestead. Over the study period from 1995 to 2015 it witnessed huge erosion and accretion that played an active role in the changes of the river bank.

Keywords: river bank, erosion and accretion, change monitoring, remote sensing

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Authors: S. Arpit, P. K. Das, S. K. Dash

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In this paper, a comparative study is done between two fuels, naphtha and natural gas (NG), for a gas turbine (GT) plant of 32.5 MW with the same thermodynamic configuration. From the energy analysis, it is confirmed that the turbine inlet temperature (TIT) of the gas turbine in the case of natural gas is higher as compared to naphtha, and hence the isentropic efficiency of the turbine is better. The result from the exergy analysis also confirms that due to high turbine inlet temperature in the case of natural gas, exergy destruction in combustion chamber is less. But comparing two fuels for overall analysis, naphtha has higher energy and exergetic efficiency as compared to natural gas.

Keywords: exergy analysis, gas turbine, naphtha, natural gas

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Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

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Authors: Ozge Nilay Yalcin

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Dialogue has been proposed to be the natural basis for the human-computer interaction, which is behaviorally rich and includes different modalities such as gestures, posture changes, gaze, para-linguistic parameters and linguistic context. However, equipping the system with these capabilities might have consequences on the usability of the system. One issue is to be able to find a good balance between rich behavior and fluent behavior, as planning and generating these behaviors is computationally expensive. In this work, we propose a multi-modal dialogue management system that automates the conversational flow from text-based dialogue examples and uses synchronized verbal and non-verbal conversational cues to achieve a fluent interaction. Our system is integrated with Smartbody behavior realizer to provide real-time interaction with embodied agent. The nonverbal behaviors are used according to turn-taking behavior, emotions, and personality of the user and linguistic analysis of the dialogue. The verbal behaviors are responsive to the emotional value of the utterance and the feedback from the user. Our system is aimed for online planning of these affective multi-modal components, in order to achieve enhanced user experience with richer and more natural interaction.

Keywords: affect, embodied conversational agents, human-agent interaction, multimodal interaction, natural interfaces

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Authors: Tomáš Ludík, Jiří Barta, Josef Navrátil

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Natural or human made disasters have a significant negative impact on the environment. At the same time there is an extensive effort to support management and decision making in emergency situations by information technologies. Therefore the purpose of the paper is to propose a design patterns applicable in emergency management, enabling better analysis and design of emergency management processes and therefore easier development and deployment of information systems in the field of emergency management. It will be achieved by detailed analysis of existing emergency management legislation, contingency plans, and information systems. The result is a set of design patterns focused at emergency management processes that enable easier design of emergency plans or development of new information system. These results will have a major impact on the development of new information systems as well as to more effective and faster solving of emergencies.

Keywords: analysis and design, Business Process Modelling Notation, contingency plans, design patterns, emergency management

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Authors: Katarina Lazarević, Mirjana Todosijević, Tijana Vulević, Natalija Momirović, Ranka Erić

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Due to increasing demand, climate change, and world population growth, natural resources are getting exploit fast. One of the most important natural resources is soil, which is susceptible to degradation. Erosion as one of the forms of land degradation is also one of the most global environmental problems. Ecosystem services are often defined as benefits that nature provides to humankind. Soil, as the foundation of basic ecosystem functions, provides benefits to people, erosion control, water infiltration, food, fuel, fibers… This research is using the ecosystem approach as a strategy for natural resources management for promoting sustainability and conservation. The research was done on the Topčiderska River basin (Belgrade, Serbia). The InVEST Sediment Delivery Ratio model was used, to quantify erosion intensity with a spatial distribution output map of overland sediment generation and delivery to the stream. InVEST SDR, a spatially explicit model, is using a method based on the concept of hydrological connectivity and (R) USLE model. This, combined with socio-economic and law and policy analysis, gives a full set of information to decision-makers helping them to successfully manage and deliver sustainable ecosystems.

Keywords: ecosystem services, InVEST model, soil erosion, sustainability

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Authors: S. Susanti, V. P. Bintoro, A. Setiadi, S. I. Santoso, D. R. Febriandi

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Meat is a foodstuff of animal origin. It is perishable because a suitable medium for bacterial growth. That is why meat can be a potential hazard to humans. Several ways have been done to inhibit bacterial population in an effort to prolong the meat shelf-life. However, aberration sometimes happens in the practices of meat preservation, for example by using chemical material that possessed strong antibacterial activity like formaldehyde. For health reason, utilization of formaldehyde as a food preservative was forbidden because of DNA damage resulting cancer and birth defects. Therefore, it is important to seek a natural food preservative that is not harmful to the body. This study aims to reveal the potency of cashew apple as natural food preservative by measuring its antibacterial activity and marinating effect on the bacterial growth of beef and chicken meat. Antibacterial activity was measured by The Kirby-Bauer method while bacterial growth was determined by total plate count method. The results showed that inhibition zone of 10-30% cashew apple extract significantly wider compared to 0% extract on the medium of E. coli, S. aureus, S. typii, and Bacillus sp. Furthermore, beef marinated with 20-30% cashew apple extract and chicken meat marinated with 5-15% extract significantly less in the total number of bacteria compared to 0% extract. It can be concluded that marinating with 5-30% cashew apple extract can effectively inhibit the bacterial growth of beef and chicken meat. Moreover, the concentration of extracts to inhibit bacterial populations in chicken meat was reached at the lower level compared to beef. Thus, cashew apple is potential as a natural food preservative.

Keywords: bacterial growth, cashew apple, marinating, meat

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Authors: Elias Kodjo Kekesi

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This study seeks to investigate a critical but neglected area in disaster and emergency management in Ghana. It explores aspects of work within one of the safety-critical work environments that expose workers to psychological, social and physical harm. With much attention to crises’ survivors, deceased and their families, this research attempts to answer a key question: ‘What happens to the rescuer’? Emergency response is associated with immense and unprecedented pressure that puts responders’ physical, mental and social well-being at risk. Despite the negative psychological outcomes, scholars argue that being in a traumatic situation may trigger positive outcomes for some people. Thus, the study also focuses on the positive impact of working in a risky crisis environment. Additionally, people’s interpretation of negative experiences or exposure to adverse conditions differ owing to their personal resources which explains why some people may be negatively affected whiles others are positively impacted. To examine these complex nuances, an exploratory sequential mixed method design is adopted. This paper will highlight the findings of study one, which explores the underlying themes emerging from the Ghanaian disaster and emergency response environment regarding psychosocial hazard exposures and the corresponding outcomes.

Keywords: psychosocial hazards, organisational outcomes, qualitative research, Ghana

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Authors: Shotiros Protong

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The incidents of sudden landslides in Thailand during the past decade have occurred frequently and more severely. It is necessary to focus on the principal parameters used for analysis such as land cover land use, rainfall values, characteristic of soil and digital elevation model (DEM). The combination of intense rainfall and severe monsoons is increasing due to global climate change. Landslide occurrences rapidly increase during intense rainfall especially in the rainy season in Thailand which usually starts around mid-May and ends in the middle of October. The rain-triggered landslide hazard analysis is the focus of this research. The combination of geotechnical and hydrological data are used to determine permeability, conductivity, bedding orientation, overburden and presence of loose blocks. The regional landslide hazard mapping is developed using the Slope Stability Index SINMAP model supported on Arc GIS software version 10.1. Geological and land use data are used to define the probability of landslide occurrences in terms of geotechnical data. The geological data can indicate the shear strength and the angle of friction values for soils above given rock types, which leads to the general applicability of the approach for landslide hazard analysis. To address the research objectives, the methods are described in this study: setup and calibration of the SINMAP model, sensitivity of the SINMAP model, geotechnical laboratory, landslide assessment at present calibration and landslide assessment under future climate simulation scenario A2 and B2. In terms of hydrological data, the millimetres/twenty-four hours of average rainfall data are used to assess the rain triggered landslide hazard analysis in slope stability mapping. During 1954-2012 period, is used for the baseline of rainfall data at the present calibration. The climate change in Thailand, the future of climate scenarios are simulated by spatial and temporal scales. The precipitation impact is need to predict for the climate future, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) version 4.2, is used to assess the simulation scenario of future change between latitude 16o 26’ and 18o 37’ north and between longitude 98o 52’ and 103o 05’ east by SDSM software. The research allows the mapping of risk parameters for landslide dynamics, and indicates the spatial and time trends of landslide occurrences. Thus, regional landslide hazard mapping under present-day climatic conditions from 1954 to 2012 and simulations of climate change based on GCM scenarios A2 and B2 from 2013 to 2099 related to the threshold rainfall values for the selected the study area in Uttaradit province in the northern part of Thailand. Finally, the landslide hazard mapping will be compared and shown by areas (km2 ) in both the present and the future under climate simulation scenarios A2 and B2 in Uttaradit province.

Keywords: landslide hazard, GIS, slope stability index (SINMAP), landslides, Thailand

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Authors: Arianna Nativio, Zoran Kapelan, Jan Peter van der Hoek

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Bio-composite materials are becoming increasingly popular in various applications, such as the automotive industry. Usually, bio-composite materials are made from natural resources recovered from plants, now, a new type of bio-composite material has begun to be produced in the Netherlands. This material is made from resources recovered from drinking water treatments (calcite), wastewater treatment (cellulose), and material from surface water management (aquatic plants). Surface water, raw drinking water, and wastewater can be contaminated with pathogens and chemical compounds. Therefore, it would be valuable to develop a framework to assess, monitor, and control the potential risks. Indeed, the goal is to define the major risks in terms of human health, quality of materials, and environment associated with the production and application of these new materials. This study describes the general risk assessment framework, starting with a qualitative risk assessment. The qualitative risk analysis was carried out by using the HAZOP methodology for the hazard identification phase. The HAZOP methodology is logical and structured and able to identify the hazards in the first stage of the design when hazards and associated risks are not well known. The identified hazards were analyzed to define the potential associated risks, and then these were evaluated by using the qualitative Event Tree Analysis. ETA is a logical methodology used to define the consequences for a specific hazardous incidents, evaluating the failure modes of safety barriers and dangerous intermediate events that lead to the final scenario (risk). This paper shows the effectiveness of combining of HAZOP and qualitative ETA methodologies for hazard identification and risk mapping. Then, key risks were identified, and a quantitative framework was developed based on the type of risks identified, such as QMRA and QCRA. These two models were applied to assess human health risks due to the presence of pathogens and chemical compounds such as heavy metals into the bio-composite materials. Thus, due to these contaminations, the bio-composite product, during its application, might release toxic substances into the environment leading to a negative environmental impact. Therefore, leaching tests are going to be planned to simulate the application of these materials into the environment and evaluate the potential leaching of inorganic substances, assessing environmental risk.

Keywords: bio-composite, risk assessment, water reuse, resource recovery

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Authors: N. S. B. Ambarini, Tito Sofyan, Edra Satmaidi

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Coastal and marine are two potential natural resource one of the pillars of the national economy. The Indonesian archipelago has marine and coastal which is quite spacious. Various important natural resources such as fisheries, mining and so on are in coastal areas and the sea, so that this region is a unique area with a variety of interests to exploit it. Therefore, to preserve a sustainable manner need good management and comprehensive. To the national and local level legal regulations have been published relating to the management of coastal and marine areas. However, in practice it has not been able to function optimally. Substantially has not touched the problems of the region, especially concerning the interests of local communities (local). This study is a legal non-doctrinal approach to socio-legal studies. Based on the results of research in some coastal and marine areas in Bengkulu province - Indonesia, there is a fact that the system of customary law and local wisdom began to weaken implementation. Therefore harmonization needs to be done in implementing laws and regulations that apply to the values of indigenous and local knowledge that exists in the community.

Keywords: coastal and marine, harmonization, law, local

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Authors: Marcelo Dias Carvalho, Leticia Ishikawa

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Supply Chain Risk Management refers to a set of strategies used by companies to avoid supply chain disruption caused by damage at production facilities, natural disasters, capacity issues, inventory problems, incorrect forecasts, and delays. Many companies use the techniques of the Toyota Production System, which in a way goes against a better management of supply chain risks. This paper studies key events in some multinationals to analyze the trade-off between the best supply chain risk management techniques and management policies designed to create lean enterprises. The result of a good balance of these actions is the reduction of losses, increased customer trust in the company and better preparedness to face the general risks of a supply chain.

Keywords: just in time, lean manufacturing, supply chain disruptions, supply chain management

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Authors: Vinu Elias Jacob, Manoj Kumar Kini

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Disasters of all types are occurring more frequently and are becoming more costly than ever due to various manmade factors including climate change. A better utilisation of the concept of governance and management within disaster risk reduction is inevitable and of utmost importance. There is a need to explore the role of pre- and post-disaster public policies. The role of urban planning/design in shaping the opportunities of households, individuals and collectively the settlements for achieving recovery has to be explored. Governance strategies that can better support the integration of disaster risk reduction and management has to be examined. The main aim is to thereby build the resilience of individuals and communities and thus, the states too. Resilience is a term that is usually linked to the fields of disaster management and mitigation, but today has become an integral part of planning and design of cities. Disaster resilience broadly describes the ability of an individual or community to 'bounce back' from disaster impacts, through improved mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. The growing population of the world has resulted in the inflow and use of resources, creating a pressure on the various natural systems and inequity in the distribution of resources. This makes cities vulnerable to multiple attacks by both natural and man-made disasters. Each urban area needs elaborate studies and study based strategies to proceed in the discussed direction. Cochin in Kerala is the fastest and largest growing city with a population of more than 26 lakhs. The main concern that has been looked into in this paper is making cities resilient by designing a framework of strategies based on urban design principles for an immediate response system especially focussing on the city of Cochin, Kerala, India. The paper discusses, understanding the spatial transformations due to disasters and the role of spatial planning in the context of significant disasters. The paper also aims in developing a model taking into consideration of various factors such as land use, open spaces, transportation networks, physical and social infrastructure, building design, and density and ecology that can be implemented in any city of any context. Guidelines are made for the smooth evacuation of people through hassle-free transport networks, protecting vulnerable areas in the city, providing adequate open spaces for shelters and gatherings, making available basic amenities to affected population within reachable distance, etc. by using the tool of urban design. Strategies at the city level and neighbourhood level have been developed with inferences from vulnerability analysis and case studies.

Keywords: disaster management, resilience, spatial planning, spatial transformations

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Authors: Abdelkader Ababneh

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Heritage management planning is increasingly important throughout the international context, particularly in the developing countries. Jordan has important and unique heritage resources due to its natural topography and climate, but also to its history and old sites. A high number of these archaeological sites are in very good state of preservation. Most natural sites and resources are privately managed while archaeological heritage sites are publicly managed within national legal texts and with some referencing to international legal documents. This study examines the development of cultural heritage management in Jarash, and questions if this heritage has been managed in an appropriate manner. The purpose of this paper is to define and review the stakeholders in charge of the management of the archaeological site of Jarash, the legal texts, laws and documents adopted to apply the site management. Relations and coordination between stakeholders and the challenge of the planning process is also the focus of this paper. A review of pertinent academic, technical studies, reports and projects literature pertaining to the heritage management planning in general and related to the site of Jarash in particular coupled with field study of the site served as the background of the information base for the study. Current context of actors, legislative framework, planning policies and initiatives for the site of Jarash reveal important and continuous challenge for managing the site. Recommendations suggest reviewing and restructuring the entity responsible of the sites management. It is also recommended to review their applied policies and a redevelopment of the legislative frame work.

Keywords: heritage management, stakeholders, legal protection, Jarash

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Authors: Hariti Rafika, Fekih Malika, Saighi Mohamed

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During the period storage of liquefied natural gas, stability is necessarily affected by natural convection along the walls of the tank with thermal insulation is not perfectly efficient. In this paper, we present the numerical simulation of heat transfert by natural convection double diffusion,in unsteady laminar regime in a storage tank. The storage tank contains a liquefied natural gas (LNG) in its gaseous phase. Fluent, a commercial CFD package, based on the numerical finite volume method, is used to simulate the flow. The gas is just on the surface of the liquid phase. This numerical simulation allowed us to determine the temperature profiles, the stream function, the velocity vectors and the variation of the heat flux density in the vapor phase in the LNG storage tank volume. The results obtained for a general configuration, by numerical simulation were compared to those found in the literature.

Keywords: numerical simulation, natural convection, heat gains, storage tank, liquefied natural gas

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Authors: Sumaira Zafar, Arjumand Zaidi

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During past few years, several floods have adversely affected the areas along lower Indus River. Besides other climate related anomalies, rapidly increasing urbanization and blockage of natural drains due to siltation or encroachments are two other critical causes that may be responsible for these disasters. Due to flat topography of river Indus plains and blockage of natural waterways, drainage of storm water takes time adversely affecting the crop health and soil properties of the area. Government of Sindh is taking a keen interest in revival of natural drainage network in the province and has initiated this work under Sindh Irrigation and Drainage Authority. In this paper, geospatial techniques are used to analyze landuse/land-cover changes of Larkana district over the past three decades (1980-present) and their impact on natural drainage system. Satellite derived Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and topographic sheets (recent and 1950) are used to delineate natural drainage pattern of the district. The urban landuse map developed in this study is further overlaid on drainage line layer to identify the critical areas where the natural floodwater flows are being inhibited by urbanization. Rainfall and flow data are utilized to identify areas of heavy flow, whereas, satellite data including Landsat 7 and Google Earth are used to map previous floods extent and landuse/cover of the study area. Alternatives to natural drainage systems are also suggested wherever possible. The output maps of natural drainage pattern can be used to develop a decision support system for urban planners, Sindh development authorities and flood mitigation and management agencies.

Keywords: geospatial techniques, satellite data, natural drainage, flood, urbanization

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Authors: Damian Czubak

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The Białowieża Forest is a very valuable natural area, included in the World Natural Heritage at UNESCO, where, due to infestation by the bark beetle (Ips typographus), norway spruce (Picea abies) have deteriorated. This catastrophic scenario led to an increase in fire danger. This was due to the occurrence of large amounts of dead wood and grass cover, as light penetrated to the bottom of the stands. These factors in a dry state are materials that favour the possibility of fire and the rapid spread of fire. One of the objectives of the study was to monitor the quantitative and qualitative changes of combustible material on the permanent decay plots of spruce stands from 2012-2022. In addition, the size of the area with highly flammable vegetation was monitored and a classification of the stands of the Białowieża Forest by flammability classes was made. The key factor that determines the potential fire hazard of a forest is combustible material. Primarily its type, quantity, moisture content, size and spatial structure. Based on the inventory data on the areas of forest districts in the Białowieża Forest, the average fire load and its changes over the years were calculated. The analysis was carried out taking into account the changes in the health status of the stands and sanitary operations. The quantitative and qualitative assessment of fallen timber and fire load of ground cover used the results of the 2019 and 2021 inventories. Approximately 9,000 circular plots were used for the study. An assessment was made of the amount of potential fuel, understood as ground cover vegetation and dead wood debris. In addition, monitoring of areas with vegetation that poses a high fire risk was conducted using data from 2019 and 2021. All sub-areas were inventoried where vegetation posing a specific fire hazard represented at least 10% of the area with species characteristic of that cover. In addition to the size of the area with fire-prone vegetation, a very important element is the size of the fire load on the indicated plots. On representative plots, the biomass of the land cover was measured on an area of 10 m2 and then the amount of biomass of each component was determined. The resulting element of variability of ground covers in stands was their flammability classification. The classification developed made it possible to track changes in the flammability classes of stands over the period covered by the measurements.

Keywords: classification, combustible material, flammable vegetation, Norway spruce

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Earthquakes pose significant risks to human life and infrastructure, highlighting the importance of effective earthquake mitigation strategies. Traditional earthquake modelling and mitigation efforts have largely focused on the primary fault segments and their slip behaviour. However, earthquakes can exhibit complex rupture dynamics, including out-of-sequence thrust (OOST) events, which occur on secondary or subsidiary faults. This abstract examines the impact of OOST dynamics on earthquake mitigation strategies and their implications for hazard assessment and disaster planning. OOST events challenge conventional seismic hazard assessments by introducing additional fault segments and potential rupture scenarios that were previously unrecognized or underestimated. Consequently, these events may increase the overall seismic hazard in affected regions. The study reviews recent case studies and research findings that illustrate the occurrence and characteristics of OOST events. It explores the factors contributing to OOST dynamics, such as stress interactions between fault segments, fault geometry, and mechanical properties of fault materials. Moreover, it investigates the potential triggers and precursory signals associated with OOST events to enhance early warning systems and emergency response preparedness. The abstract also highlights the significance of incorporating OOST dynamics into seismic hazard assessment methodologies. It discusses the challenges associated with accurately modelling OOST events, including the need for improved understanding of fault interactions, stress transfer mechanisms, and rupture propagation patterns. Additionally, the abstract explores the potential for advanced geophysical techniques, such as high-resolution imaging and seismic monitoring networks, to detect and characterize OOST events. Furthermore, the abstract emphasizes the practical implications of OOST dynamics for earthquake mitigation strategies and urban planning. It addresses the need for revising building codes, land-use regulations, and infrastructure designs to account for the increased seismic hazard associated with OOST events. It also underscores the importance of public awareness campaigns to educate communities about the potential risks and safety measures specific to OOST-induced earthquakes. This sheds light on the impact of out-of-sequence thrust dynamics in earthquake mitigation. By recognizing and understanding OOST events, researchers, engineers, and policymakers can improve hazard assessment methodologies, enhance early warning systems, and implement effective mitigation measures. By integrating knowledge of OOST dynamics into urban planning and infrastructure development, societies can strive for greater resilience in the face of earthquakes, ultimately minimizing the potential for loss of life and infrastructure damage.

Keywords: earthquake mitigation, out-of-sequence thrust, seismic, satellite imagery

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Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

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This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Irena Lucy Ishimora, Eva Maria Putri Salsabila

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The constellation on Indonesian Legal System that varies shows a structural injustice – as a result of patriarchy – exists from the biggest range as a country to the smallest such as a family. Women in their lives, carry out excessive responsibilities in the community. However, the unequal positions between men and women in the society restrain women to fulfill their constructed role. Therefore, increasing the chance for women to become the victim of structural injustice. The lack of authority given to women and its effects can be seen through a case study of the Cirompang Indigenous Women’s involvement in natural resources management. The decision to make the Mount Halimun-Salak as a National Park and the expansion itself did not involve nor consider the existence of indigenous people (Kasepuhan Ciromopang) – especially the women’s experience regarding natural resources management – has been significantly impacting the fulfillment of the indigenous women’s rights. Moreover, the adat law that still reflects patriarchy, made matters worse because women are restricted from expressing their opinion. The writers explored the experience of Cirompang indigenous women through in-depth interviews with them and analyzed it with several theories such as ecofeminism, woman’s access to land and legal pluralism. This paper is important to show how the decision and expansion of the National Park reduced the rights of access to land, natural resources, expressing an opinion, and participating in development. Reflecting on the Cirompang Indigenous Women’s conditions on natural resources management, this paper aims to present the implications of the regulations that do not acknowledge Indigenous women’s experience and the proposed solutions. First, there should be an integration between the law regarding indigenous people and traditional rights in a regulation to align the understanding of indigenous people and their rights. Secondly, Indonesia as a country that’s rich with diversity should ratify the ILO Convention no 169 to reaffirm the protection of Indigenous people’s rights. Last, considering the position of indigenous women that still experienced unjustness in the community, the government and NGOs must collaborate to provide adequate assistance for them.

Keywords: Cirompang indigenous women, indigenous women’s rights, structural injustice, women access to land

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Authors: G. L. Devnani, Shishir Sinha

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Natural fiber reinforced polymer composite is a very attractive area among the scientific community because of their low cost, eco-friendly and sustainable in nature. Among all advantages there are few issues which need to be addressed, those issues are the poor adhesion and compatibility between two opposite nature materials that is fiber and matrix and their relatively high water absorption. Therefore, natural fiber modifications are necessary to improve their adhesion with different matrices. Excellent properties could be achieved with the surface treatment of these natural fibers ultimately leads to property up-gradation of their reinforced composites with different polymer matrices. Lot of work is going on to improve the adhesion between reinforced fiber phase and polymer matrix phase to improve the properties of composites. Researchers have suggested various methods for natural fiber treatment like silane treatment, treatment with alkali, acetylation, acrylation, maleate coupling, etc. In this study a review is done on the different methods used for the surface treatment of natural fibers and what are the advance treatment methodologies for natural fiber surface treatment for property improvement of natural fiber reinforced polymer composites.

Keywords: composites, acetylation, natural fiber, surface treatment

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Authors: Recep Karadag

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Natural dyeing had started since pre-historical times for dyeing of textile materials. The natural dyeing had continued to beginning of 20th century. At the end of 19th century some synthetic dyes were synthesized. Although development of dyeing technologies and methods, natural dyeing was not developed in recent years. Despite rapid advances of synthetic dyestuff industries, natural dye processes have not developed. Therefore natural dyeing was not competed against synthetic dyes. At the same time, it was very difficult that large quantities of coloured textile was dyed with natural dyes And it was very difficult to get reproducible results in the natural dyeing using classical and traditional processes. However, natural dyeing has used slightly in the textile handicraft up to now. It is very important view that re-using of natural dyes to create awareness in textiles in recent years. Natural dyes have got many awareness and sustainability properties. Natural dyes are more eco-friendly than synthetic dyes. A lot of natural dyes have got antioxidant, antibacterial, antimicrobial, antifungal and anti –UV properties. It had been known that were obtained limited numbers colours with natural dyes in the past. On the contrary, colour scale is too wide with natural dyes. Except fluorescent colours, numerous colours can be obtained with natural dyes. Fastnesses of dyed textiles with natural dyes are good that there are light, washing, rubbing, etc. The fastness values can be improved depend on dyeing processes. Thanks to these properties mass production can be made with natural dyes in textiles. Therefore fabric dyeing machine was designed. This machine is too suitable for natural dyeing and mass production. Also any dyeing machine can be modified for natural dyeing. Although dye extraction and dyeing are made separately in the traditional natural dyeing processes and these procedures are become by designed this machine. Firstly, colouring compounds are extracted from natural dye resources, then dyeing is made with extracted colouring compounds. The colouring compounds are moderately dissolved in water. Less water is used in the extraction of colouring compounds from dye resources and dyeing with this new technique on the contrary much quantity water needs to use for dissolve of the colouring compounds in the traditional dyeing. This dyeing technique is very useful method for mass productions with natural dyes in traditional natural dyeing that use less energy, less dye materials, less water, etc. than traditional natural dyeing techniques. In this work, cotton, silk, linen and wool fabrics were dyed with some natural dye plants by the technique. According to the analysis very good results were obtained by this new technique. These results are shown sustainability and awareness of natural dyes for textiles.

Keywords: antibacterial, antimicrobial, natural dyes, sustainability

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Authors: G. Cinelli, T. Tollefsen, P. Bossew, V. Gruber, R. Braga, M. A. Hernández-Ceballos, M. De Cort

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In 2006, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission started the project of the 'European Atlas of Natural Radiation'. The Atlas aims at preparing a collection of maps of Europe displaying the levels of natural radioactivity caused by different sources (indoor and outdoor radon, cosmic radiation, terrestrial radionuclides, terrestrial gamma radiation, etc). The overall goal of the project is to estimate, in geographical resolution, the annual dose that the public may receive from natural radioactivity, combining all the information from the different radiation components. The first map which has been developed is the European map of indoor radon (Rn) since in most cases Rn is the most important contribution to exposure. New versions of the map are realised when new countries join the project or when already participating countries send new data. We show the latest status of this map which currently includes 25 European countries. Second, the JRC has undertaken to map a variable which measures 'what earth delivers' in terms of Rn. The corresponding quantity is called geogenic radon potential (RP). Due to the heterogeneity of data sources across the Europe there is need to develop a harmonized quantity which at the one hand adequately measures or classifies the RP, and on the other hand is suited to accommodate the variety of input data used to estimate this target quantity. Candidates for input quantities which may serve as predictors of the RP, and for which data are available across Europe, to different extent, are Uranium (U) concentration in rocks and soils, soil gas radon and soil permeability, terrestrial gamma dose rate, geological information and indoor data from ground floor. The European Geogenic Radon Map gives the possibility to characterize areas, on European geographical scale, for radon hazard where indoor radon measurements are not available. Parallel to ongoing work on the European Indoor Radon, Geogenic Radon and Cosmic Radiation Maps, we made progress in the development of maps of terrestrial gamma radiation and U, Th and K concentrations in soil and bedrock. We show the first, preliminary map of the terrestrial gamma dose rate, estimated using the data of ambient dose equivalent rate available from the EURDEP system (about 5000 fixed monitoring stations across Europe). Also, the first maps of U, Th, and K concentrations in soil and bedrock are shown in the present work.

Keywords: Europe, natural radiation, mapping, indoor radon

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: Hee Jin Kang

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Despite numerous studies on the reserves and availability of natural gas hydrates, the technology of transporting natural gas hydrates in large quantities to sea has not been put into practical use. Several natural gas hydrate transport technologies presented by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) are under preparation for commercialization. Among them, NGH tank container concept modularized transportation unit to prevent sintering effect during sea transportation. The natural gas hydrate can be vaporized in a certain part during the transportation. Unprocessed BOG increases the pressure inside the tank. Also, there is a risk of fire if you export the BOG out of the tank without proper handling. Therefore, in this study, we have studied the concept of technology to properly process BOG to modularize natural gas hydrate and to transport it to sea for long distance. The study is expected to contribute to the practical use of NGH tank container, which is a modular transport concept proposed to solve the sintering problem that occurs when transporting natural gas hydrate in the form of bulk cargo.

Keywords: Natural gas hydrate, tank container, marine transportation, boil-off gas

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Authors: Umar Hayatu Sidik

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The natural gas vehicle represents a cost-competitive, lower-emission alternative to the gasoline-fuelled vehicle. The immediate challenge that confronts natural gas is increasing its energy density. This paper addresses the question of energy density by reviewing the storage technologies for natural gas with improved adsorbent. Technical comparisons are made between storage systems containing adsorbent and conventional compressed natural gas based on the associated amount of moles contained with Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Adsorbed Natural Gas (ANG). We also compare gas storage in different cylinder types (1, 2, 3 and 4) based on weight factor and storage capacity. For the storage tank system, we discussed the concept of carbon adsorbents, when used in CNG tanks, offer a means of increasing onboard fuel storage and, thereby, increase the driving range of the vehicle. It confirms that the density of the stored gas in ANG is higher than that of compressed natural gas (CNG) operated at the same pressure. The obtained experimental data were correlated using linear regression analysis with common adsorption kinetic (Pseudo-first order and Pseudo-second order) and isotherm models (Sip and Toth). The pseudo-second-order kinetics describe the best fitness with a correlation coefficient of 9945 at 35 bar. For adsorption isotherms, the Sip model shows better fitness with the regression coefficient (R2) of 0.9982 and with the lowest RSMD value of 0.0148. The findings revealed the potential of adsorbent in natural gas storage applications.

Keywords: natural gas, adsorbent, compressed natural gas, adsorption

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Authors: Arif Almutairi, Monjur Mourshed

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Due to varying geographical and tectonic factors, the region of Saudi Arabia has been subjected to numerous natural and man-made maritime disasters during the last two decades. Natural maritime disasters, such as cyclones and tsunamis, have been recorded in coastal areas of the Indian Ocean (including the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden). Therefore, the Indian Ocean is widely recognised as the potential source of future destructive natural disasters that could affect Saudi Arabia’s coastline. Meanwhile, man-made maritime disasters, such as those arising from piracy and oil pollution, are located in the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf, which are key locations for oil export and transportation between Asia and Europe. This paper provides a brief overview of maritime disasters surrounding Saudi Arabia’s coastline in order to classify them by frequency of occurrence and location, and discuss their future impact the region. Results show that the Arabian Gulf will be more vulnerable to natural maritime disasters because of its location, whereas the Red Sea is more vulnerable to man-made maritime disasters, as it is the key location for transportation between Asia and Europe. The results also show that with the aid of proper classification, effective disaster management can reduce the consequences of maritime disasters.

Keywords: disaster classification, maritime disaster, natural disasters, man-made disasters

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Authors: A. E. Delgado, W. Aperador

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This study evaluated the incidence of concentrated natural fibre, as well as the effects of adding a crosslinking agent on the torque when those components are mixed with low density polyethylene (LDPE). The natural fibre has a particle size of between 0.8-1.2mm and a moisture content of 0.17%. An internal mixer was used to measure the torque required to mix the polymer with the fibre. The effect of the fibre content and crosslinking agent on the torque was also determined. A change was observed in the morphology of the mixes using SEM differential scanning microscopy.

Keywords: WPC, DCP, LDPE, natural fibre, torque

Procedia PDF Downloads 393