Search results for: match outcome forecasting

Authors: Vandana Maurya

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Positive psychological capital is the key contributor to the competitive advantage of the organizations. Moreover, work engagement and sense of humor are also positive notions and are able to facilitate positive workplace behaviour but the mechanism behind these relationships are not well understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationships among work engagement, sense of humor and outcome variables (organizational citizenship behaviour and ethical performance) as well as investigating how psychological capital (PsyCap) mediates the relationships between work engagement, sense of humor and the outcome variables among healthcare professionals. A cross-sectional survey was conducted on healthcare professionals (n= 240). Data were collected using questionnaires which includes Utrecht Work Engagement Scale (UWES), Multi-dimensional Sense of Humor Scale (MSHS), Psychological Capital Questionnaire (PCQ), Organizational Citizenship Behavior Questionnaire, and Ethical Performance Scale (EPS). The results of the regression analyses showed that work engagement and sense of humor both positively predicted the outcome variables. Mediation analysis reveals that psychological capital mediates the relationship between predictor and outcome variables. The study recommends that the framework presented in this study can be an important tool for managers to enhance their employees’ psychological capital by increasing their levels of work engagement and sense of humor. In turn, psychological capital could be a positive resource for employees to dealing more ethically and enhancing more positive workplace behaviour.

Keywords: ethical performance, humor, organizational citizenship behavior, PsyCap, work engagement

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Authors: Phang Moon Leng

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Automated Early Warning Scores is a newly developed clinical decision tool that is used to streamline and improve the process of obtaining a patient’s vital signs so a clinical decision can be made at an earlier stage to prevent the patient from further deterioration. This technology provides immediate update on the score and clinical decision to be taken based on the outcome. This paper aims to study the use of an automated early warning score system on whether the technology has assisted the hospital in early detection and escalation of clinical condition and improve patient outcome. The hospital adopted the Modified Early Warning Scores (MEWS) Scoring System and MEWS Clinical Response into Philips IntelliVue Guardian Automated Early Warning Score equipment and studied whether the process has been leaned, whether the use of technology improved the usage & experience of the nurses, and whether the technology has improved patient care and outcome. It was found the steps required to obtain vital signs has been significantly reduced and is used more frequently to obtain patient vital signs. The number of deaths, and length of stay has significantly decreased as clinical decisions can be made and escalated more quickly with the Automated EWS. The automated early warning score equipment has helped improve work efficiency by removing the need for documenting into patient’s EMR. The technology streamlines clinical decision-making and allows faster care and intervention to be carried out and improves overall patient outcome which translates to better care for patient.

Keywords: automated early warning score, clinical quality and safety, patient safety, medical technology

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Authors: Akaash Tawade, Manan Khattar, Lucas Spangher, Costas J. Spanos

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Many grids are increasing the share of renewable energy in their generation mix, which is causing the energy generation to become less controllable. Buildings, which consume nearly 33% of all energy, are a key target for demand response: i.e., mechanisms for demand to meet supply. Understanding the behavior of office workers is a start towards developing demand response for one sector of building technology. The literature notes that dynamic computational modeling can be predictive of individual action, especially given that occupant behavior is traditionally abstracted from demand forecasting. Recent work founded on Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) has provided a promising conceptual basis for modeling behavior, personal states, and environment using control theoretic principles. Here, an adapted linear dynamical system of latent states and exogenous inputs is proposed to simulate energy demand amongst office workers engaged in a social energy shifting game. The energy shifting competition is implemented in an office in Singapore that is connected to a minigrid of buildings with a consistent 'price signal.' This signal is translated into a 'points signal' by a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to influence participant energy use. The dynamic model functions at the intersection of the points signals, baseline energy consumption trends, and SCT behavioral inputs to simulate future outcomes. This study endeavors to analyze how the dynamic model trains an RL agent and, subsequently, the degree of accuracy to which load deferability can be simulated. The results offer a generalizable behavioral model for energy competitions that provides the framework for further research on transfer learning for RL, and more broadly— transactive control.

Keywords: energy demand forecasting, social cognitive behavioral modeling, social game, transfer learning

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Authors: Muhamad Aris Burhanudin, Angga Firmansyas, Bagus Jaya Santosa

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Earthquakes are natural hazard that can trigger the most dangerous hazard, tsunami. 26 December 2004, a giant earthquake occurred in north-west Andalas Island. It made giant tsunami which crushed Sumatra, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Singapore. More than twenty thousand people dead. The occurrence of earthquake and tsunami can not be avoided. But this hazard can be mitigated by earthquake forecasting. Early preparation is the key factor to reduce its damages and consequences. We aim to investigate quantitatively on pattern of earthquake. Then, we can know the trend. We study about earthquake which has happened in Andalas island, Indonesia one last decade. Andalas is island which has high seismicity, more than a thousand event occur in a year. It is because Andalas island is in tectonic subduction zone of Hindia sea plate and Eurasia plate. A tsunami forecasting is needed to mitigation action. Thus, a Tsunami Forecasting Method is presented in this work. Neutral Network has used widely in many research to estimate earthquake and it is convinced that by using Backpropagation Method, earthquake can be predicted. At first, ANN is trained to predict Tsunami 26 December 2004 by using earthquake data before it. Then after we get trained ANN, we apply to predict the next earthquake. Not all earthquake will trigger Tsunami, there are some characteristics of earthquake that can cause Tsunami. Wrong decision can cause other problem in the society. Then, we need a method to reduce possibility of wrong decision. Fuzzy TOPSIS is a statistical method that is widely used to be decision seconder referring to given parameters. Fuzzy TOPSIS method can make the best decision whether it cause Tsunami or not. This work combines earthquake prediction using neural network method and using Fuzzy TOPSIS to determine the decision that the earthquake triggers Tsunami wave or not. Neural Network model is capable to capture non-linear relationship and Fuzzy TOPSIS is capable to determine the best decision better than other statistical method in tsunami prediction.

Keywords: earthquake, fuzzy TOPSIS, neural network, tsunami

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Authors: Luksanaporn Krungkraipetch

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One hundred cataract patients with phacoemulsification were enrolled in the study to compare of visual acuity outcome and complication after phacoemulsification between diabetic and non-diabetic patients at Burapha University Hospital, Chonburi, Thailand. Fifty patients were diabetic (type II) group and 50 patients were non-diabetic group. All cases were operated by one doctor with the same pre-operative care, operation (phacoemulsification), and post-operative care. Visual acuity and complication after surgery were assessed after the operation for two years. There were no significant differences in demographic data between the two groups. The visual outcome values ≥ 2 lines and ≥ 20/40 had no significant differences between two groups after two years of surgery. The complication rate in diabetic group had cystoid macular edema 16%, rupture posterior capsule 8%, posterior capsule opacity 2%, uveitis 2 %, and 2% endophthalmitis. The non-diabetic group had cystoid macular edema 12%, rupture posterior capsule 8%, uveitis 2%, posterior capsule opacity 2%, and 2% wound leak. Comparison of visual acuity outcome and complication after phacoemulsification between diabetic and non-diabetic patients had no statistical significant differences between these two groups. It was found that cystoid macular edema was the most common complication in both groups and 10% of retinopathy progression was seen.

Keywords: cataract, visual acuity, cataract extraction, phacoemulsification, diabetic retinopathy

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Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Amir Hossein Eghbali

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Recent investigations have demonstrated the global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study climate changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using stepwise regression. One models of Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network (DWNN) was developed to explore the relationship between climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components and then ANN was used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and predictands to each other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea level rise is among 90 to 105 cm. Furthermore the result showed a significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas management.

Keywords: climate change scenarios, sea-level rise, strait of Hormuz, forecasting

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Authors: Yangrae Cho, Jinseok Kim, Yongtae Park

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Mobile app service ecosystem has been abruptly emerged, explosively grown, and dynamically transformed. In contrast with product markets in which product sales directly cause increment in firm’s income, customer’s usage is less visible but more valuable in service market. Especially, the market situation with cutthroat competition in mobile app store makes securing and keeping of users as vital. Although a few service firms try to manage their apps’ usage patterns by fitting on S-curve or applying other forecasting techniques, the time series approaches based on past sequential data are subject to fundamental limitation in the market where customer’s attention is being moved unpredictably and dynamically. We therefore propose a new conceptual approach for detecting usage pattern of mobile app service with Hidden Markov Model (HMM) which is based on the dual stochastic structure and mainly used to clarify unpredictable and dynamic sequential patterns in voice recognition or stock forecasting. Our approach could be practically utilized for app service firms to manage their services’ lifecycles and academically expanded to other markets.

Keywords: mobile app service, usage pattern, Hidden Markov Model, pattern detection

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Authors: Fauzia Dianawati, Riska W. Purnomo

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Food and agricultural sector become the biggest sector contributing to inflation in Indonesia. Especially in Wonogiri district, red cayenne pepper was the biggest sector contributing to inflation on 2016. A national statistic proved that in recent five years red cayenne pepper has the highest average level of fluctuation among all commodities. Some factors, like supply chain, price disparity, production quantity, crop failure, and oil price become the possible factor causes high volatility level in red cayenne pepper price. Therefore, this research tries to find the key factor causing fluctuation on red cayenne pepper by using ARCH/GARCH method. The method could accommodate the presence of heteroscedasticity in time series data. At the end of the research, it is statistically found that the second level of supply chain becomes the biggest part contributing to inflation with 3,35 of coefficient in fluctuation forecasting model of red cayenne pepper price. This model could become a reference to the government to determine the appropriate policy in maintaining the price stability of red cayenne pepper.

Keywords: ARCH/GARCH, forecasting, red cayenne pepper, volatility, supply chain

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Authors: Jaypalsinh Parmar, Pintu Nakrani, Bhaumik Shah

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Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is elevation data of the virtual grid on the ground. DEM can be used in application in GIS such as hydrological modelling, flood forecasting, morphometrical analysis and surveying etc.. For morphometrical analysis the stream flow network plays a very important role. DEM lacks accuracy and cannot match field data as it should for accurate results of morphometrical analysis. The present study focuses on comparing the Agree method and the conventional Shortest path method for finding out morphometric parameters in the flat region of the Lower Tapi Basin which is located in the western India. For the present study, open source SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission with 1 arc resolution) and toposheets issued by Survey of India (SOI) were used to determine the morphometric linear aspect such as stream order, number of stream, stream length, bifurcation ratio, mean stream length, mean bifurcation ratio, stream length ratio, length of overland flow, constant of channel maintenance and aerial aspect such as drainage density, stream frequency, drainage texture, form factor, circularity ratio, elongation ratio, shape factor and relief aspect such as relief ratio, gradient ratio and basin relief for 53 catchments of Lower Tapi Basin. Stream network was digitized from the available toposheets. Agree DEM was created by using the SRTM and stream network from the toposheets. The results obtained were used to demonstrate a comparison between the two methods in the flat areas.

Keywords: agree method, morphometric analysis, lower Tapi basin, shortest path method

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Authors: Nazaitul Idya Hamzah, Muhammad Syafiq Mazli, Maszatul Akmar Mustafa

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The peak demand forecast is crucial to identify the future generation plant up needed in the long-term capacity planning analysis for Peninsular Malaysia as well as for the transmission and distribution network planning activities. Currently, peak demand forecast (in Mega Watt) is derived from the generation forecast by using load factor assumption. However, a forecast using this method has underperformed due to the structural changes in the economy, emerging trends and weather uncertainty. The dynamic changes of these drivers will result in many possible outcomes of peak demand for Peninsular Malaysia. This paper will look into the independent model of peak demand forecasting. The model begins with the selection of driver variables to capture long-term growth. This selection and construction of variables, which include econometric, emerging trend and energy variables, will have an impact on the peak forecast. The actual framework begins with the development of system energy and load shape forecast by using the system’s hourly data. The shape forecast represents the system shape assuming all embedded technology and use patterns to continue in the future. This is necessary to identify the movements in the peak hour or changes in the system load factor. The next step would be developing the peak forecast, which involves an iterative process to explore model structures and variables. The final step is combining the system energy, shape, and peak forecasts into the hourly system forecast then modifying it with the forecast adjustments. Forecast adjustments are among other sales forecasts for electric vehicles, solar and other adjustments. The framework will result in an hourly forecast that captures growth, peak usage and new technologies. The advantage of this approach as compared to the current methodology is that the peaks capture new technology impacts that change the load shape.

Keywords: hourly load profile, load forecasting, long term peak demand forecasting, peak demand

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Authors: Terry Liang Khin Teo, Sun Woh Lye, Kai Lun Brendon Goh

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As applied to dynamic monitoring situations, the prevailing approach to situation awareness (SA) assumes that the relevant areas of interest (AOI) be perceived before that information can be processed further to affect decision-making and, thereafter, action. It is not entirely clear whether this is the case. This study seeks to investigate the monitoring of dynamic objects through matching eye fixations with the relevant AOIs in boundary-crossing scenarios. By this definition, a match is where a fixation is registered on the AOI. While many factors may affect monitoring characteristics, traffic simulations were designed in this study to explore two factors, namely: the number of inbounds/outbound traffic transfers and the number of entry and/or exit points in a radar monitoring sector. These two factors were graded into five levels of difficulty ranging from low to high traffic flow numbers. Combined permutation in terms of levels of difficulty of these two factors yielded a total of thirty scenarios. Through this, results showed that changes in the traffic flow numbers on transfer resulted in greater variations having match limits ranging from 29%-100%, as compared to the number of sector entry/exit points of range limit from 80%-100%. The subsequent analysis is able to determine the type and combination of traffic scenarios where imperfect matching is likely to occur.

Keywords: air traffic simulation, eye-tracking, visual monitoring, focus attention

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Authors: Madaki Umar Yusuf, Mohd Rizam B. Abubakar

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The survival censored data with incomplete covariate data is a common occurrence in many studies in which the outcome is survival time. With model when the missing covariates are categorical, a useful technique for obtaining parameter estimates is the EM by the method of weights. The survival outcome for the class of generalized linear model is applied and this method requires the estimation of the parameters of the distribution of the covariates. In this paper, we propose some clinical trials with ve covariates, four of which have some missing values which clearly show that they were fully censored data.

Keywords: EM algorithm, incomplete categorical covariates, ignorable missing data, missing at random (MAR), Weibull Distribution

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Authors: Walid Abouzeid, Mohamed Shadad, Mostafa Farid, Magdy El Hawary

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The most frequent treatable vascular abnormality of the spinal canal is spinal dural arteriovenous fistulae (SDAVFs), which cause progressive para- or quadriplegia mostly affecting elderly males. SDAVFs are present in the thoracolumbar region. The main goal of treatment must be to obliterate the shunting zone via superselective embolization with the usage of a liquid embolic agent. This study aims to evaluate endovascular technique as a safe and efficient approach for the treatment SDAVFs, especially with long-term follow-up clinical outcomes. Study Design: A retrospective clinical case study. From May 2010 to May 2017, 15 patients who had symptoms attributed to SDAVFs underwent the operation in the Departments of Neurosurgery in Suhag, Tanta, and Al-Azhar Universities and Interventional Radiology, Ain Shams University. All the patients had varying degrees of progressive spastic paraparesis with and without sphincteric disturbances. Endovascular embolization was used in all cases. Fourteen were males, with ages ranging from 45 to 74 years old. After the treatment, good outcome was found in five patients (33.3%), a moderate outcome was delineated in six patients (40 %), and four patients revealed a poor outcome (26.7%). Spinal AVF could be treated safely and effectively by the endovascular approach. Generally, there is no correlation between the disappearance of MRI abnormalities and significant clinical improvement. The preclinical state of the patient is directly proportional to the clinical outcome. Due to unexpected responses, embolization should be attempted even the patient is in a bad clinical condition.

Keywords: spine, arteriovenous, fistula, endovascular, embolization

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Authors: Kurias George, Ildefonso Cuesta Romeo, Clara Salueña Pérez, Jordi Sole Olle

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With the growing prevalence of wind energy there is a need, for modeling techniques to evaluate the impact of wind farms on meteorology and oceanography. This study presents an approach that utilizes the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting )with that include a Wind Farm Parametrization model to simulate the dynamics around Parc Tramuntana project, a offshore wind farm to be located near the Gulf of Roses off the coast of Barcelona, Catalonia. The model incorporates parameterizations for wind turbines enabling a representation of the wind field and how it interacts with the infrastructure of the wind farm. Current results demonstrate that the model effectively captures variations in temeperature, pressure and in both wind speed and direction over time along with their resulting effects on power output from the wind farm. These findings are crucial for optimizing turbine placement and operation thus improving efficiency and sustainability of the wind farm. In addition to focusing on atmospheric interactions, this study delves into the wake effects within the turbines in the farm. A range of meteorological parameters were also considered to offer a comprehensive understanding of the farm's microclimate. The model was tested under different horizontal resolutions and farm layouts to scrutinize the wind farm's effects more closely. These experimental configurations allow for a nuanced understanding of how turbine wakes interact with each other and with the broader atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This modified approach serves as a potent tool for stakeholders in renewable energy, environmental protection, and marine spatial planning. environmental protection and marine spatial planning. It provides a range of information regarding the environmental and socio economic impacts of offshore wind energy projects.

Keywords: weather research and forecasting, wind turbine wake effects, environmental impact, wind farm parametrization, sustainability analysis

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Authors: Vaibhavi Birle

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Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome is a rare clinic-radiological syndrome associated with acute changes in blood pressure during pregnancy. It is characterized symptomatically by headache, seizures, altered mental status, and visual blurring with radiological changes of white matter (vasogenic oedema) affecting the posterior occipital and parietal lobes of the brain. It is being increasingly recognized due to increased institutional deliveries and advances in imaging particularly magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). In spite of the increasing diagnosis the prediction of PRES and patient factors affecting susceptibility is still not clear. Hence, we conducted the retrospective study to analyse the factors associated with PRES at our tertiary centre.

Keywords: pres syndrome, eclampsia, maternal outcome, fetal outcome

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Authors: Novie Nuraini, Sari Hanifa, Yetty Ramli

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Chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH) is a common condition after head trauma. Although the size of the thickness of cSDH has an important role in the decision to perform surgery, but the size limit of the thickness is not absolute. In this serial case report, we evaluate three case report of cSDH that indicated to get the surgical procedure because of deficit neurologic and neuroimaging finding with subfalcine herniation more than 0.5 cm and hematoma thickness more than one cm. On the first case, the patient got evacuation hematoma procedure, but the second and third case, we did nonsurgical treatment because the patient and family refused to do the operation. We did the conservative treatment with bed rest and mannitol. Serial radiologic evaluation is done when we found worsening condition. We also reevaluated radiologic examination two weeks after the treatment. The results in this serial case report, the first and second case have a good outcome. On the third case, there was a worsening condition, which in this patient there was a comorbid with type two diabetic mellitus, pneumonie and chronic kidney disease. Some conservative treatment such as bed rest, corticosteroid, mannitol or the other hyperosmolar has a good outcome in patient without neurologic deficits, small hematoma, and or patient without comorbid disease. Evacuate hematome is the best choice in cSDH treatment with deficit neurologic finding. Afterall, there is some condition that we can not do the surgical procedure. Serial radiologic examination needed after two weeks to evaluate the treatment or if there is any worsening condition.

Keywords: chronic subdural hematoma, traumatic brain injury, surgical treatment, nonsurgical treatment, outcome

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Authors: Peter P. K. Chiu

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This paper reports a comparative study of new and old criteria for the professional accreditation of programme by the Hong Kong Institution of Engineers (HKIE). The major change in the criteria is the adoption of the outcome-based accreditation criteria and the use of measurement of attainment of outcomes which is very different from what academic did in the past. This has imposed a lot of difficulty for people in preparation for such exercise. Through this comparative study, the major difference between the two criteria is identified and a methodology is devised to help the academic to handle the issues due to the adoption of the new criteria. Thus it saves a lot of efforts.

Keywords: Hong Kong institution of engineers, outcome-based accreditation, Sydney accord, Washington accord

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Authors: R. Ramesh, K. K. Shivaraman

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The main aim of this paper is to handle the energy requirement in an efficient manner by merging the advanced digital communication and control technologies for smart grid applications. In order to reduce user home load during peak load hours, utility applies several incentives such as real-time pricing, time of use, demand response for residential customer through smart meter. However, this method provides inconvenience in the sense that user needs to respond manually to prices that vary in real time. To overcome these inconvenience, this paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN) with k-means clustering machine learning model which have ability to forecast energy requirement in short term, i.e., hour of the day or day of the week. By integrating our proposed technique with home energy management based on Bluetooth low energy provides predicted value to user for scheduling appliance in advanced. This paper describes detail about CNN configuration and k-means clustering algorithm for short-term energy forecasting.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, fuzzy logic, k-means clustering approach, smart home energy management

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Authors: Ahmad Jawad Fardin

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Over 60% of patients with breast cancer in Afghanistan present late with advanced stage III and IV, a major cause for the poor survival rate. The objectives of this study were to identify the contributing factors for the diagnosis and treatment delay and its outcome. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 318 patients with histologically confirmed breast cancer in the oncology department of Jamhoriat hospital, which is the first and only national cancer center in Afghanistan; data were collected from medical records and interviews conducted with women diagnosed with breast cancer, linear regression and logistic regression were used for analysis. Patient delay was defined as the time from first recognition of symptoms until first medical consultation and doctor form first consultation with a health care provider until histological confirmation of breast cancer. The mean age of patients was 49.2+_ 11.5years. The average time for the final diagnosis of breast cancer was 8.5 months; most patients had ductal carcinoma 260.7 (82%). Factors associated with delay were low education level 76% poor socioeconomic and cultural conditions 81% lack of cancer center 73% lack of screening 19%. The stage distribution was as follows stage IV 4 22% stage III 44.4% stage II 29.3% stage I 4.3%. Complex associated factors were identified to delayed the diagnosis of breast cancer and increased adverse outcomes consequently. Raising awareness and education in women, the establishment of cancer centers and providing accessible diagnosis service and screening, training of general practitioners; required to promote early detection, diagnosis and treatment.

Keywords: delayed diagnosis and poor outcome, breast cancer in Afghanistan, poor outcome of delayed breast cancer treatment, breast cancer delayed diagnosis and treatment in Afghanistan

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Authors: Mariyam Arif, Ye Liu, Israr Ul Haq, Ahsan Ashfaq

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High cost of fossil fuels and intensifying installations of alternate energy generation sources are intimidating main challenges in power systems. Making accurate load forecasting an important and challenging task for optimal energy planning and management at both distribution and generation side. There are many techniques to forecast load but each technique comes with its own limitation and requires data to accurately predict the forecast load. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one such technique to efficiently forecast the load. Comparison between two different ranges of input datasets has been applied to dynamic ANN technique using MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox. It has been observed that selection of input data on training of a network has significant effects on forecasted results. Day-wise input data forecasted the load accurately as compared to year-wise input data. The forecasted load is then distributed among the six generators by using the linear programming to get the optimal point of generation. The algorithm is then verified by comparing the results of each generator with their respective generation limits.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, demand-side management, economic dispatch, linear programming, power generation dispatch

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Authors: L. Totladze

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The role of financial sector in supporting economic growth and development is well acknowledged. The term spread (the difference between the yields on long-term and short-term Treasury securities) has been found useful for predicting economic variables as output growth, inflation, industrial production, consumption. The temp spread is one of the leading economic indicators according to NBER methodology. Leading economic indicators are widely used in forecasting of economic activity. Many empirical studies find that the term spread predicts future economic activity. The article shortly explains how the term spread might predict future economic activity. This paper analyses the dynamics of the spread between short and long-term interest rates in countries with transition economies. The research paper analyses term spread dynamics in Georgia and compare it with post-communist countries and transition economies spread dynamics. In Georgia, the banking sector plays an important and dominant role in the financial sector, especially with respect to the mobilization of savings and provision of credit and may impact on economic activity. For this purpose, we study the impact of the term spread on economic growth in Georgia.

Keywords: forecasting, leading economic indicators, term spread, transition economies

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Authors: Albert Suryaprawira

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The Nasion-Sella Line (NSL) has been used for several years as a reference line in longitudinal growth study. Therefore this line is considered to be stable not only to evaluate treatment outcome and to predict relapse possibility but also to manage prognosis. This is a radiographic superimposition of an adult male aged 19 years who complained of difficulty in aesthetic, talking and chewing. Patient has a midface hypoplasia profile (concave). He was diagnosed to have a severe Skeletal Class III with Class III malocclusion, increased lower vertical height, and an anterior open bite. A pre-treatment cephalometric radiograph was taken to analyse the skeletal problem and to measure the amount of bone movement and the prediction soft tissue response. A panoramic radiograph was also taken to analyse bone quality, bone abnormality, third molar impaction, etc. Before the surgery, a pre-surgical cephalometric radiograph was taken to re-evaluate the plan and to settle the final amount of bone cut. After the surgery, a post-surgical cephalometric radiograph was taken to confirm the result with the plan. The superimposition using NSL as a reference line between those radiographs was performed to analyse the outcome. It is important to describe the amount of hard and soft tissue movement and to predict the possibility of relapse after the surgery. The patient also needs to understand all the surgical plan, outcome and relapse prevention. The surgical management included maxillary impaction and advancement of Le Fort I osteotomy. The evaluation using NSL as a reference was a very useful method in determining the outcome and prognosis.

Keywords: Nasion-Sella Line, midface hypoplasia, Le Fort 1, maxillary advancement

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Authors: Hung Manh Nguyen, Duong Dai Nguyen

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Objective: To evaluate the effects of Tai Chi exercise on cognitive performance of community-dwelling elderly in Vinh city, Vietnam. Design: A randomized controlled trial. Participants: One hundred and two subjected were recruited. Intervention: Subjects were divided randomly into two groups. Tai Chi group was assigned 6-months Tai Chi training. Control group was instructed to maintain their routine daily activities. Outcome measures: Trail Making Test (TMT) is primary outcome measure. Results: Participants in Tai Chi group reported significant improvement in TMT (part A) F(1, 71) = 78.37, p < .001, and in TMT (part B) F(1, 71)= 175.00, p < .001 in comparison with Control group. Conclusion: Tai Chi is beneficial to improve cognitive performance of the elderly.

Keywords: cognitive, elderly, Vietnam, Tai Chi

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Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Kolawole Taiwo Olabode

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This is a comparative study of ICTs adoption and use in selected manufacturing industries in for development. This study was carried out 2004 and was repeated 2013 (nine years after) using the same selected manufacturing industries to assess the level, improvement and extent ICT facilities used in these companies. The theory of modernization was explored to explain some developmental issues in this study. The same semi-structured questionnaire and IDI were used to elicit data on the subject matter. About 24.9% of the total workers (1,247) were sampled for this study using quota sampling technique. SPSS was used to analysis the quantitative data. The qualitative data was used to buttress the quantitative data. Findings indicated that Seven-Up Bottling Company and Frigoglass Glass Industry still remained Intensive ICT Users while only Niger Match Nigeria Limited still remained Non-Intensive ICT User while unfortunately, Askar Paint Nigeria Limited has gone liquidated. It is also important to discover that only the Intensive ICT users improved on relevant ICT facilities. The existing problems of ICT adoption and used in these companies remained the same in Niger Match Limited. The study concluded that for a society to be developed, management and government at all levels must do all things necessary to ensure that all existing organisations must be ICT compliance for workers and organisational performance and to enhance nation’s development in order to compete with other companies for global standard or recognition.

Keywords: ICT, intensive ICT-users, entrepreneurial, manufacturing industries, industries and development

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Authors: Balaji Ganesh Rajagopal, Subramanian Appavu alias Balamurugan, Ayyalraj Midhun Kumar, Krishnan Nallaperumal

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Intelligent Transportation System is an Emerging area to solve multiple transportation problems. Several forms of inputs are needed in order to solve ITS problems. Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS) is a core and important ITS area of this modern era. This involves travel time forecasting, efficient road map analysis and cost based path selection, Detection of the vehicle in the dynamic conditions and Traffic congestion state forecasting. This Article designs and provides an algorithm for traffic data generation which can be used for the above said ATIS application. By inputting the real world traffic situation in the form of video sequences, the algorithm determines the Traffic density in terms of congestion, number of vehicles in a given path which can be fed for various ATIS applications. The Algorithm deduces the key frame from the video sequences and follows the Blob detection, Identification and Tracking using connected components algorithm to determine the correlation between the vehicles moving in the real road scene.

Keywords: traffic transportation, traffic density estimation, blob identification and tracking, relative velocity of vehicles, correlation between vehicles

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Authors: Parvin Ghafarian, Mohammadreza Mohammadpur Panchah, Mehri Fallahi

Abstract:

Synoptic patterns from surface up to tropopause are very important for forecasting the weather and atmospheric conditions. There are many tools to prepare and analyze these maps. Reanalysis data and the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, satellite images, meteorological radar, and weather station data are used in world forecasting centers to predict the weather. The forecasting extreme precipitating on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea (CS) is the main issue due to complex topography. Also, there are different types of climate in these areas. In this research, we used two reanalysis data such as ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation Description (ERA5) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction /National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) for verification of the numerical model. ERA5 is the latest version of ECMWF. The temporal resolution of ERA5 is hourly, and the NCEP/NCAR is every six hours. Some atmospheric parameters such as mean sea level pressure, geopotential height, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, sea surface temperature, etc. were selected and analyzed. Some different type of precipitation (rain and snow) was selected. The results showed that the NCEP/NCAR has more ability to demonstrate the intensity of the atmospheric system. The ERA5 is suitable for extract the value of parameters for specific point. Also, ERA5 is appropriate to analyze the snowfall events over CS (snow cover and snow depth). Sea surface temperature has the main role to generate instability over CS, especially when the cold air pass from the CS. Sea surface temperature of NCEP/NCAR product has low resolution near coast. However, both data were able to detect meteorological synoptic patterns that led to heavy rainfall over CS. However, due to the time lag, they are not suitable for forecast centers. The application of these two data is for research and verification of meteorological models. Finally, ERA5 has a better resolution, respect to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, but NCEP/NCAR data is available from 1948 and appropriate for long term research.

Keywords: synoptic patterns, heavy precipitation, reanalysis data, snow

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: M. Khazam, M. Altawil, A. Eljabri

Abstract:

Fluid properties in states near a vapor-liquid critical region are the most difficult to measure and to predict with EoS models. The principal model difficulty is that near-critical property variations do not follow the same mathematics as at conditions far away from the critical region. Libyan NC98 field in Sirte basin is a typical example of near critical fluid characterized by high initial condensate gas ratio (CGR) greater than 160 bbl/MMscf and maximum liquid drop-out of 25%. The objective of this paper is to model NC98 phase behavior with the proper selection of EoS parameters and also to model reservoir depletion versus gas cycling option using measured PVT data and EoS Models. The outcomes of our study revealed that, for accurate gas and condensate recovery forecast during depletion, the most important PVT data to match are the gas phase Z-factor and C7+ fraction as functions of pressure. Reasonable match, within -3% error, was achieved for ultimate condensate recovery at abandonment pressure of 1500 psia. The smooth transition from gas-condensate to volatile oil was fairly simulated by the tuned PR-EoS. The predicted GOC was approximately at 14,380 ftss. The optimum gas cycling scheme, in order to maximize condensate recovery, should not be performed at pressures less than 5700 psia. The contribution of condensate vaporization for such field is marginal, within 8% to 14%, compared to gas-gas miscible displacement. Therefore, it is always recommended, if gas recycle scheme to be considered for this field, to start it at the early stage of field development.

Keywords: EoS models, gas-condensate, gas cycling, near critical fluid

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Ratima Damkham, Natasha Dejdumrong, Priyakorn Pusawiro

Abstract:

This paper explored the solution in game design to help game designers in the educational game designing using digital educational game model canvas (DEGMC) and digital educational game form (DEGF) based on Outcome-based Education program. DEGMC and DEGF can help designers develop an overview of the game while designing and planning their own game. The way to clearly assess players’ ability from learning outcomes and support their game learning design is by using the tools. Designers can balance educational content and entertainment in designing a game by using the strategies of the Business Model Canvas and design the gameplay and players’ ability assessment from learning outcomes they need by referring to the Constructive Alignment. Furthermore, they can use their design plan in this research to write their Game Design Document (GDD). The success of the research was evaluated by four experts’ perspectives in the education and computer field. From the experiments, the canvas and form helped the game designers model their game according to the learning outcomes and analysis of their own game elements. This method can be a path to research an educational game design in the future.

Keywords: constructive alignment, constructivist theory, educational game, outcome-based education

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Galal H. Senussi, Muamar Benisa, Sanja Vasin

Abstract:

In our business field today, one of the most important issues for any enterprises is cost minimization and profit maximization. Second issue is how to develop a strong and capable model that is able to give us desired forecasting of these two issues. Many researches deal with these issues using different methods. In this study, we developed a model for multi-criteria production program optimization, integrated with Artificial Neural Network. The prediction of the production cost and profit per unit of a product, dealing with two obverse functions at same time can be extremely difficult, especially if there is a great amount of conflict information about production parameters. Feed-Forward Neural Networks are suitable for generalization, which means that the network will generate a proper output as a result to input it has never seen. Therefore, with small set of examples the network will adjust its weight coefficients so the input will generate a proper output. This essential characteristic is of the most important abilities enabling this network to be used in variety of problems spreading from engineering to finance etc. From our results as we will see later, Feed-Forward Neural Networks has a strong ability and capability to map inputs into desired outputs.

Keywords: project profitability, multi-objective optimization, genetic algorithm, Pareto set, neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 414