Search results for: markov process
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 14914

Search results for: markov process

14794 A Combinatorial Representation for the Invariant Measure of Diffusion Processes on Metric Graphs

Authors: Michele Aleandri, Matteo Colangeli, Davide Gabrielli

Abstract:

We study a generalization to a continuous setting of the classical Markov chain tree theorem. In particular, we consider an irreducible diffusion process on a metric graph. The unique invariant measure has an atomic component on the vertices and an absolutely continuous part on the edges. We show that the corresponding density at x can be represented by a normalized superposition of the weights associated to metric arborescences oriented toward the point x. A metric arborescence is a metric tree oriented towards its root. The weight of each oriented metric arborescence is obtained by the product of the exponential of integrals of the form ∫a/b², where b is the drift and σ² is the diffusion coefficient, along the oriented edges, for a weight for each node determined by the local orientation of the arborescence around the node and for the inverse of the diffusion coefficient at x. The metric arborescences are obtained by cutting the original metric graph along some edges.

Keywords: diffusion processes, metric graphs, invariant measure, reversibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 134
14793 Management of Empty Containers by Consignees in the Hinterland

Authors: Benjamin Legros, Jan Fransoo, Oualid Jouini

Abstract:

This study aims to evaluate street-turn strategies for empty container repositioning in the hinterland. Containers arrive over time at the (importer) consignee, while the demand for containers arises from the (exporter) shipper. A match can be operated between an empty container from the consignee and the load from the shipper. Therefore, we model the system as a double-ended queue with non-zero matching time and a limited number of resources in order to optimize the reposition- ing decisions. We determine the performance measures when the consignee operates using a fixed withholding threshold policy. We show that the matching time mainly plays a role in the matching proportion, while under a certain duration, it only marginally impacts the consignee’s inventory policy and cost per container. Also, the withholding level is mainly determined by the shipper’s production rate.

Keywords: container, double-ended queue, inventory, Markov decision process, non-zero matching time, street-turn

Procedia PDF Downloads 109
14792 Mining Diagnostic Investigation Process

Authors: Sohail Imran, Tariq Mahmood

Abstract:

In complex healthcare diagnostic investigation process, medical practitioners have to focus on ways to standardize their processes to perform high quality care and optimize the time and costs. Process mining techniques can be applied to extract process related knowledge from data without considering causal and dynamic dependencies in business domain and processes. The application of process mining is effective in diagnostic investigation. It is very helpful where a treatment gives no dispositive evidence favoring it. In this paper, we applied process mining to discover important process flow of diagnostic investigation for hepatitis patients. This approach has some benefits which can enhance the quality and efficiency of diagnostic investigation processes.

Keywords: process mining, healthcare, diagnostic investigation process, process flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 489
14791 Determining the Effects of Wind-Aided Midge Movement on the Probability of Coexistence of Multiple Bluetongue Virus Serotypes in Patchy Environments

Authors: Francis Mugabi, Kevin Duffy, Joseph J. Y. T Mugisha, Obiora Collins

Abstract:

Bluetongue virus (BTV) has 27 serotypes, with some of them coexisting in patchy (different) environments, which make its control difficult. Wind-aided midge movement is a known mechanism in the spread of BTV. However, its effects on the probability of coexistence of multiple BTV serotypes are not clear. Deterministic and stochastic models for r BTV serotypes in n discrete patches connected by midge and/or cattle movement are formulated and analyzed. For the deterministic model without midge and cattle movement, using the comparison principle, it is shown that if the patch reproduction number R0 < 1, i=1,2,...,n, j=1,2,...,r, all serotypes go extinct. If R^j_i0>1, competitive exclusion takes place. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that when the n patches are connected by midge movement, coexistence takes place. To account for demographic and movement variability, the deterministic model is transformed into a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. Utilizing a multitype branching process, it is shown that the midge movement can have a large effect on the probability of coexistence of multiple BTV serotypes. The probability of coexistence can be brought to zero when the control interventions that directly kill the adult midges are applied. These results indicate the significance of wind-aided midge movement and vector control interventions on the coexistence and control of multiple BTV serotypes in patchy environments.

Keywords: bluetongue virus, coexistence, multiple serotypes, midge movement, branching process

Procedia PDF Downloads 118
14790 Biosignal Recognition for Personal Identification

Authors: Hadri Hussain, M.Nasir Ibrahim, Chee-Ming Ting, Mariani Idroas, Fuad Numan, Alias Mohd Noor

Abstract:

A biometric security system has become an important application in client identification and verification system. A conventional biometric system is normally based on unimodal biometric that depends on either behavioural or physiological information for authentication purposes. The behavioural biometric depends on human body biometric signal (such as speech) and biosignal biometric (such as electrocardiogram (ECG) and phonocardiogram or heart sound (HS)). The speech signal is commonly used in a recognition system in biometric, while the ECG and the HS have been used to identify a person’s diseases uniquely related to its cluster. However, the conventional biometric system is liable to spoof attack that will affect the performance of the system. Therefore, a multimodal biometric security system is developed, which is based on biometric signal of ECG, HS, and speech. The biosignal data involved in the biometric system is initially segmented, with each segment Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) method is exploited for extracting the feature. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to model the client and to classify the unknown input with respect to the modal. The recognition system involved training and testing session that is known as client identification (CID). In this project, twenty clients are tested with the developed system. The best overall performance at 44 kHz was 93.92% for ECG and the worst overall performance was ECG at 88.47%. The results were compared to the best overall performance at 44 kHz for (20clients) to increment of clients, which was 90.00% for HS and the worst overall performance falls at ECG at 79.91%. It can be concluded that the difference multimodal biometric has a substantial effect on performance of the biometric system and with the increment of data, even with higher frequency sampling, the performance still decreased slightly as predicted.

Keywords: electrocardiogram, phonocardiogram, hidden markov model, mel frequency cepstral coeffiecients, client identification

Procedia PDF Downloads 252
14789 Simulation of a Fluid Catalytic Cracking Process

Authors: Sungho Kim, Dae Shik Kim, Jong Min Lee

Abstract:

Fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) process is one of the most important process in modern refinery indusrty. This paper focuses on the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) process. As the FCC process is difficult to model well, due to its nonlinearities and various interactions between its process variables, rigorous process modeling of whole FCC plant is demanded for control and plant-wide optimization of the plant. In this study, a process design for the FCC plant includes riser reactor, main fractionator, and gas processing unit was developed. A reactor model was described based on four-lumped kinetic scheme. Main fractionator, gas processing unit and other process units are designed to simulate real plant data, using a process flowsheet simulator, Aspen PLUS. The custom reactor model was integrated with the process flowsheet simulator to develop an integrated process model.

Keywords: fluid catalytic cracking, simulation, plant data, process design

Procedia PDF Downloads 426
14788 The Analysis of Emergency Shutdown Valves Torque Data in Terms of Its Use as a Health Indicator for System Prognostics

Authors: Ewa M. Laskowska, Jorn Vatn

Abstract:

Industry 4.0 focuses on digital optimization of industrial processes. The idea is to use extracted data in order to build a decision support model enabling use of those data for real time decision making. In terms of predictive maintenance, the desired decision support tool would be a model enabling prognostics of system's health based on the current condition of considered equipment. Within area of system prognostics and health management, a commonly used health indicator is Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL) of a system. Because the RUL is a random variable, it has to be estimated based on available health indicators. Health indicators can be of different types and come from different sources. They can be process variables, equipment performance variables, data related to number of experienced failures, etc. The aim of this study is the analysis of performance variables of emergency shutdown valves (ESV) used in oil and gas industry. ESV is inspected periodically, and at each inspection torque and time of valve operation are registered. The data will be analyzed by means of machine learning or statistical analysis. The purpose is to investigate whether the available data could be used as a health indicator for a prognostic purpose. The second objective is to examine what is the most efficient way to incorporate the data into predictive model. The idea is to check whether the data can be applied in form of explanatory variables in Markov process or whether other stochastic processes would be a more convenient to build an RUL model based on the information coming from registered data.

Keywords: emergency shutdown valves, health indicator, prognostics, remaining useful lifetime, RUL

Procedia PDF Downloads 66
14787 A Markov Model for the Elderly Disability Transition and Related Factors in China

Authors: Huimin Liu, Li Xiang, Yue Liu, Jing Wang

Abstract:

Background: As one of typical case for the developing countries who are stepping into the aging times globally, more and more older people in China might face the problem of which they could not maintain normal life due to the functional disability. While the government take efforts to build long-term care system and further carry out related policies for the core concept, there is still lack of strong evidence to evaluating the profile of disability states in the elderly population and its transition rate. It has been proved that disability is a dynamic condition of the person rather than irreversible so it means possible to intervene timely on them who might be in a risk of severe disability. Objective: The aim of this study was to depict the picture of the disability transferring status of the older people in China, and then find out individual characteristics that change the state of disability to provide theory basis for disability prevention and early intervention among elderly people. Methods: Data for this study came from the 2011 baseline survey and the 2013 follow-up survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Normal ADL function, 1~2 ADLs disability,3 or above ADLs disability and death were defined from state 1 to state 4. Multi-state Markov model was applied and the four-state homogeneous model with discrete states and discrete times from two visits follow-up data was constructed to explore factors for various progressive stages. We modeled the effect of explanatory variables on the rates of transition by using a proportional intensities model with covariate, such as gender. Result: In the total sample, state 2 constituent ratio is nearly about 17.0%, while state 3 proportion is blow the former, accounting for 8.5%. Moreover, ADL disability statistics difference is not obvious between two years. About half of the state 2 in 2011 improved to become normal in 2013 even though they get elder. However, state 3 transferred into the proportion of death increased obviously, closed to the proportion back to state 2 or normal functions. From the estimated intensities, we see the older people are eleven times as likely to develop at 1~2 ADLs disability than dying. After disability onset (state 2), progression to state 3 is 30% more likely than recovery. Once in state 3, a mean of 0.76 years is spent before death or recovery. In this model, a typical person in state 2 has a probability of 0.5 of disability-free one year from now while the moderate disabled or above has a probability of 0.14 being dead. Conclusion: On the long-term care cost considerations, preventive programs for delay the disability progression of the elderly could be adopted based on the current disabled state and main factors of each stage. And in general terms, those focusing elderly individuals who are moderate or above disabled should go first.

Keywords: Markov model, elderly people, disability, transition intensity

Procedia PDF Downloads 255
14786 Pricing and Economic Benefits of Commercial Insurance Incorporated into Home-based Hospice Care

Authors: Lie-Fen Lin, Tzu-Hsuan Lin, Ching-Heng Lin

Abstract:

Hospice care for terminally ill patients provides not only a better quality of life but also cost-saving benefits. However, the utilization of home-based hospice care (HBH care) remains low even for countries covered by National Health Insurance (NHI) programs in Taiwan. In the current commercial insurance policy, only hospital-based hospice benefits were covered. It may have an influence on the insureds chosen to receive end-of-life care in a hospitalized manner. Thus, how to propose a feasible method to advocate HBH care utilization rate of public health policies is an important issue. A total of 130,219 cancer decedents in the year 2011-2013 from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) in Taiwan were included in this study. By adding a day volume pays benefits of HBH care as a commercial insurance rider, will provide alternative benefits for the insureds. A multiple-state Markov chain model was incorporated to estimate the transition intensities of patients in different states at the end of their lives (Non-hospice, HBH, hospital-based hospice), and the premiums were estimated. HBH care insurance benefits provide financial support and reduce the burden of care for patients. The rate-making of this product is very sensitive while the utilization rate is rising, especially for high ages. The proposed HBH care insurance is a feasible way to reduce the financial burden, enhance the care quality and family satisfaction of insureds. Meanwhile, insurance companies can participate in advocating a good medical policy to enhance the social image. In addition, the medical costs of NHI can reduce effectively.

Keywords: home-based hospice care, commercial insurance, Markov chain model, the day volume pays

Procedia PDF Downloads 185
14785 Modeling and Simulation of Fluid Catalytic Cracking Process

Authors: Sungho Kim, Dae Shik Kim, Jong Min Lee

Abstract:

Fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) process is one of the most important process in modern refinery industry. This paper focuses on the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) process. As the FCC process is difficult to model well, due to its non linearities and various interactions between its process variables, rigorous process modeling of whole FCC plant is demanded for control and plant-wide optimization of the plant. In this study, a process design for the FCC plant includes riser reactor, main fractionator, and gas processing unit was developed. A reactor model was described based on four-lumped kinetic scheme. Main fractionator, gas processing unit and other process units are designed to simulate real plant data, using a process flow sheet simulator, Aspen PLUS. The custom reactor model was integrated with the process flow sheet simulator to develop an integrated process model.

Keywords: fluid catalytic cracking, simulation, plant data, process design

Procedia PDF Downloads 491
14784 Modelling Patient Condition-Based Demand for Managing Hospital Inventory

Authors: Esha Saha, Pradip Kumar Ray

Abstract:

A hospital inventory comprises of a large number and great variety of items for the proper treatment and care of patients, such as pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, surgical items, etc. Improper management of these items, i.e. stockouts, may lead to delay in treatment or other fatal consequences, even death of the patient. So, generally the hospitals tend to overstock items to avoid the risk of stockout which leads to unnecessary investment of money, difficulty in storing, more expiration and wastage, etc. Thus, in such challenging environment, it is necessary for hospitals to follow an inventory policy considering the stochasticity of demand in a hospital. Statistical analysis captures the correlation of patient condition based on bed occupancy with the patient demand which changes stochastically. Due to the dependency on bed occupancy, the markov model is developed that helps to map the changes in demand of hospital inventory based on the changes in the patient condition represented by the movements of bed occupancy states (acute care state, rehabilitative state and long-care state) during the length-of-stay of patient in a hospital. An inventory policy is developed for a hospital based on the fulfillment of patient demand with the objective of minimizing the frequency and quantity of placement of orders of inventoried items. The analytical structure of the model based on probability calculation is provided to show the optimal inventory-related decisions. A case-study is illustrated in this paper for the development of hospital inventory model based on patient demand for multiple inpatient pharmaceutical items. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the impact of inventory-related parameters on the developed optimal inventory policy. Therefore, the developed model and solution approach may help the hospital managers and pharmacists in managing the hospital inventory in case of stochastic demand of inpatient pharmaceutical items.

Keywords: bed occupancy, hospital inventory, markov model, patient condition, pharmaceutical items

Procedia PDF Downloads 297
14783 Study of Skid-Mounted Natural Gas Treatment Process

Authors: Di Han, Lingfeng Li

Abstract:

Selection of low-temperature separation dehydration and dehydrochlorination process applicable to skid design, using Hysys software to simulate the low-temperature separation dehydration and dehydrochlorination process under different refrigeration modes, focusing on comparing the refrigeration effect of different refrigeration modes, the condensation amount of hydrocarbon liquids and alcoholic wastewater, as well as the adaptability of the process, and determining the low-temperature separation process applicable to the natural gas dehydration and dehydrochlorination skid into the design of skid; and finally, to carry out the CNG recycling process calculations of the processed qualified natural gas and to determine the dehydration scheme and the key parameters of the compression process.

Keywords: skidding, dehydration and dehydrochlorination, cryogenic separation process, CNG recovery process calculations

Procedia PDF Downloads 111
14782 Methods for Business Process Simulation Based on Petri Nets

Authors: K. Shoylekova, K. Grigorova

Abstract:

The Petri nets are the first standard for business process modeling. Most probably, it is one of the core reasons why all new standards created afterwards have to be so reformed as to reach the stage of mapping the new standard onto Petri nets. The paper presents a Business process repository based on a universal database. The repository provides the possibility the data about a given process to be stored in three different ways. Business process repository is developed with regard to the reformation of a given model to a Petri net in order to be easily simulated two different techniques for business process simulation based on Petri nets - Yasper and Woflan are discussed. Their advantages and drawbacks are outlined. The way of simulating business process models, stored in the Business process repository is shown.

Keywords: business process repository, petri nets, simulation, Woflan, Yasper

Procedia PDF Downloads 338
14781 Process Capability Analysis by Using Statistical Process Control of Rice Polished Cylinder Turning Practice

Authors: S. Bangphan, P. Bangphan, T.Boonkang

Abstract:

Quality control helps industries in improvements of its product quality and productivity. Statistical Process Control (SPC) is one of the tools to control the quality of products that turning practice in bringing a department of industrial engineering process under control. In this research, the process control of a turning manufactured at workshops machines. The varying measurements have been recorded for a number of samples of a rice polished cylinder obtained from a number of trials with the turning practice. SPC technique has been adopted by the process is finally brought under control and process capability is improved.

Keywords: rice polished cylinder, statistical process control, control charts, process capability

Procedia PDF Downloads 464
14780 Business Process Orientation: Case of Croatia

Authors: Ljubica Milanović Glavan

Abstract:

Because of the increasing business pressures, companies must be adaptable and flexible in order to withstand them. Inadequate business processes and low level of business process orientation, that in its core accentuates business processes as opposed to business functions and focuses on process performance and customer satisfaction, hider the ability to adapt to changing environment. It has been shown in previous studies that the companies which have reached higher business process maturity level consistently outperform those that have not reached them. The aim of this paper is to provide a basic understanding of business process orientation concept and business process maturity model. Besides that the paper presents the state of business process orientation in Croatia that has been captured with a study conducted in 2013. Based on the results some practical implications and guidelines for managers are given.

Keywords: business process orientation, business process maturity, Croatia, maturity score

Procedia PDF Downloads 503
14779 A Goal-Oriented Social Business Process Management Framework

Authors: Mohammad Ehson Rangiha, Bill Karakostas

Abstract:

Social Business Process Management (SBPM) promises to overcome limitations of traditional BPM by allowing flexible process design and enactment through the involvement of users from a social community. This paper proposes a meta-model and architecture for socially driven business process management systems. It discusses the main facets of the architecture such as goal-based role assignment that combines social recommendations with user profile, and process recommendation, through a real example of a charity organization.

Keywords: business process management, goal-based modelling, process recommendation social collaboration, social BPM

Procedia PDF Downloads 465
14778 Signature Verification System for a Banking Business Process Management

Authors: A. Rahaf, S. Liyakathunsia

Abstract:

In today’s world, unprecedented operational pressure is faced by banks that test the efficiency, effectiveness, and agility of their business processes. In a typical banking process, a person’s authorization is usually based on his signature on most all of the transactions. Signature verification is considered as one of the highly significant information needed for any bank document processing. Banks usually use Signature Verification to authenticate the identity of individuals. In this paper, a business process model has been proposed in order to increase the quality of the verification process and to reduce time and needed resources. In order to understand the current process, a survey has been conducted and distributed among bank employees. After analyzing the survey, a process model has been created using Bizagi modeler which helps in simulating the process after assigning time and cost of it. The outcomes show that the automation of signature verification process is highly recommended for a banking business process.

Keywords: business process management, process modeling, quality, Signature Verification

Procedia PDF Downloads 391
14777 Transitivity Analysis in Reading Passage of English Text Book for Senior High School

Authors: Elitaria Bestri Agustina Siregar, Boni Fasius Siregar

Abstract:

The paper concerned with the transitivity in the reading passage of English textbook for Senior High School. The six types of process were occurred in the passages with percentage as follows: Material Process is 166 (42%), Relational Process is 155 (39%), Mental Process is 39 (10%), Verbal Process is 21 (5%), Existential Process is 13 (3), and Behavioral Process is 5 (1%). The material processes were found to be the most frequently used process type in the samples in our corpus (41,60 %). This indicates that the twenty reading passages are centrally concerned with action and events. Related to developmental psychology theory, this book fits the needs of students of this age.

Keywords: transitivity, types of processes, reading passages, developmental psycholoy

Procedia PDF Downloads 374
14776 Knowledge Discovery from Production Databases for Hierarchical Process Control

Authors: Pavol Tanuska, Pavel Vazan, Michal Kebisek, Dominika Jurovata

Abstract:

The paper gives the results of the project that was oriented on the usage of knowledge discoveries from production systems for needs of the hierarchical process control. One of the main project goals was the proposal of knowledge discovery model for process control. Specifics data mining methods and techniques was used for defined problems of the process control. The gained knowledge was used on the real production system, thus, the proposed solution has been verified. The paper documents how it is possible to apply new discovery knowledge to be used in the real hierarchical process control. There are specified the opportunities for application of the proposed knowledge discovery model for hierarchical process control.

Keywords: hierarchical process control, knowledge discovery from databases, neural network, process control

Procedia PDF Downloads 450
14775 Enhancing Robustness in Federated Learning through Decentralized Oracle Consensus and Adaptive Evaluation

Authors: Peiming Li

Abstract:

This paper presents an innovative blockchain-based approach to enhance the reliability and efficiency of federated learning systems. By integrating a decentralized oracle consensus mechanism into the federated learning framework, we address key challenges of data and model integrity. Our approach utilizes a network of redundant oracles, functioning as independent validators within an epoch-based training system in the federated learning model. In federated learning, data is decentralized, residing on various participants' devices. This scenario often leads to concerns about data integrity and model quality. Our solution employs blockchain technology to establish a transparent and tamper-proof environment, ensuring secure data sharing and aggregation. The decentralized oracles, a concept borrowed from blockchain systems, act as unbiased validators. They assess the contributions of each participant using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), which is crucial for evaluating the consistency of participant inputs and safeguarding against model poisoning and malicious activities. Our methodology's distinct feature is its epoch-based training. An epoch here refers to a specific training phase where data is updated and assessed for quality and relevance. The redundant oracles work in concert to validate data updates during these epochs, enhancing the system's resilience to security threats and data corruption. The effectiveness of this system was tested using the Mnist dataset, a standard in machine learning for benchmarking. Results demonstrate that our blockchain-oriented federated learning approach significantly boosts system resilience, addressing the common challenges of federated environments. This paper aims to make these advanced concepts accessible, even to those with a limited background in blockchain or federated learning. We provide a foundational understanding of how blockchain technology can revolutionize data integrity in decentralized systems and explain the role of oracles in maintaining model accuracy and reliability.

Keywords: federated learning system, block chain, decentralized oracles, hidden markov model

Procedia PDF Downloads 28
14774 E-Consumers’ Attribute Non-Attendance Switching Behavior: Effect of Providing Information on Attributes

Authors: Leonard Maaya, Michel Meulders, Martina Vandebroek

Abstract:

Discrete Choice Experiments (DCE) are used to investigate how product attributes affect decision-makers’ choices. In DCEs, choice situations consisting of several alternatives are presented from which choice-makers select the preferred alternative. Standard multinomial logit models based on random utility theory can be used to estimate the utilities for the attributes. The overarching principle in these models is that respondents understand and use all the attributes when making choices. However, studies suggest that respondents sometimes ignore some attributes (commonly referred to as Attribute Non-Attendance/ANA). The choice modeling literature presents ANA as a static process, i.e., respondents’ ANA behavior does not change throughout the experiment. However, respondents may ignore attributes due to changing factors like availability of information on attributes, learning/fatigue in experiments, etc. We develop a dynamic mixture latent Markov model to model changes in ANA when information on attributes is provided. The model is illustrated on e-consumers’ webshop choices. The results indicate that the dynamic ANA model describes the behavioral changes better than modeling the impact of information using changes in parameters. Further, we find that providing information on attributes leads to an increase in the attendance probabilities for the investigated attributes.

Keywords: choice models, discrete choice experiments, dynamic models, e-commerce, statistical modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 107
14773 Covariance of the Queue Process Fed by Isonormal Gaussian Input Process

Authors: Samaneh Rahimirshnani, Hossein Jafari

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider fluid queueing processes fed by an isonormal Gaussian process. We study the correlation structure of the queueing process and the rate of convergence of the running supremum in the queueing process. The Malliavin calculus techniques are applied to obtain relations that show the workload process inherits the dependence properties of the input process. As examples, we consider two isonormal Gaussian processes, the sub-fractional Brownian motion (SFBM) and the fractional Brownian motion (FBM). For these examples, we obtain upper bounds for the covariance function of the queueing process and its rate of convergence to zero. We also discover that the rate of convergence of the queueing process is related to the structure of the covariance function of the input process.

Keywords: queue length process, Malliavin calculus, covariance function, fractional Brownian motion, sub-fractional Brownian motion

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14772 Deep Reinforcement Learning Approach for Trading Automation in The Stock Market

Authors: Taylan Kabbani, Ekrem Duman

Abstract:

The design of adaptive systems that take advantage of financial markets while reducing the risk can bring more stagnant wealth into the global market. However, most efforts made to generate successful deals in trading financial assets rely on Supervised Learning (SL), which suffered from various limitations. Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) offers to solve these drawbacks of SL approaches by combining the financial assets price "prediction" step and the "allocation" step of the portfolio in one unified process to produce fully autonomous systems capable of interacting with its environment to make optimal decisions through trial and error. In this paper, a continuous action space approach is adopted to give the trading agent the ability to gradually adjust the portfolio's positions with each time step (dynamically re-allocate investments), resulting in better agent-environment interaction and faster convergence of the learning process. In addition, the approach supports the managing of a portfolio with several assets instead of a single one. This work represents a novel DRL model to generate profitable trades in the stock market, effectively overcoming the limitations of supervised learning approaches. We formulate the trading problem, or what is referred to as The Agent Environment as Partially observed Markov Decision Process (POMDP) model, considering the constraints imposed by the stock market, such as liquidity and transaction costs. More specifically, we design an environment that simulates the real-world trading process by augmenting the state representation with ten different technical indicators and sentiment analysis of news articles for each stock. We then solve the formulated POMDP problem using the Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) algorithm, which can learn policies in high-dimensional and continuous action spaces like those typically found in the stock market environment. From the point of view of stock market forecasting and the intelligent decision-making mechanism, this paper demonstrates the superiority of deep reinforcement learning in financial markets over other types of machine learning such as supervised learning and proves its credibility and advantages of strategic decision-making.

Keywords: the stock market, deep reinforcement learning, MDP, twin delayed deep deterministic policy gradient, sentiment analysis, technical indicators, autonomous agent

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
14771 Design and Characterization of a CMOS Process Sensor Utilizing Vth Extractor Circuit

Authors: Rohana Musa, Yuzman Yusoff, Chia Chieu Yin, Hanif Che Lah

Abstract:

This paper presents the design and characterization of a low power Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS) process sensor. The design is targeted for implementation using Silterra’s 180 nm CMOS process technology. The proposed process sensor employs a voltage threshold (Vth) extractor architecture for detection of variations in the fabrication process. The process sensor generates output voltages in the range of 401 mV (fast-fast corner) to 443 mV (slow-slow corner) at nominal condition. The power dissipation for this process sensor is 6.3 µW with a supply voltage of 1.8V with a silicon area of 190 µm X 60 µm. The preliminary result of this process sensor that was fabricated indicates a close resemblance between test and simulated results.

Keywords: CMOS process sensor, PVT sensor, threshold extractor circuit, Vth extractor circuit

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
14770 Business Process Mashup

Authors: Fethia Zenak, Salima Benbernou, Linda Zaoui

Abstract:

Recently, many companies are based on process development from scratch to achieve their business goals. The process development is not trivial and the main objective of enterprise managing processes is to decrease the software development time. Several concepts have been proposed in the field of business process-based reused development, known as BP Mashup. This concept consists of reusing existing business processes which have been modeled in order to respond to a particular goal. To meet user process requirements, our contribution is to mix parts of processes as 'processes fragments' components to build a new process (i.e. process mashup). The main idea of our paper is to offer graphical framework tool for both creating and running processes mashup. Allow users to perform a mixture of fragments, using a simple interface with set of graphical mixture operators based on a proposed formal model. A process mashup and mixture behavior are described within a new specification of a high-level language, language for process mashup (BPML).

Keywords: business process, mashup, fragments, bp mashup

Procedia PDF Downloads 592
14769 Effect of Atmospheric Turbulence on Hybrid FSO/RF Link Availability under Qatar's Harsh Climate

Authors: Abir Touati, Syed Jawad Hussain, Farid Touati, Ammar Bouallegue

Abstract:

Although there has been a growing interest in the hybrid free-space optical link and radio frequency FSO/RF communication system, the current literature is limited to results obtained in moderate or cold environment. In this paper, using a soft switching approach, we investigate the effect of weather inhomogeneities on the strength of turbulence hence the channel refractive index under Qatar harsh environment and their influence on the hybrid FSO/RF availability. In this approach, either FSO/RF or simultaneous or none of them can be active. Based on soft switching approach and a finite state Markov Chain (FSMC) process, we model the channel fading for the two links and derive a mathematical expression for the outage probability of the hybrid system. Then, we evaluate the behavior of the hybrid FSO/RF under hazy and harsh weather. Results show that the FSO/RF soft switching renders the system outage probability less than that of each link individually. A soft switching algorithm is being implemented on FPGAs using Raptor code interfaced to the two terminals of a 1Gbps/100 Mbps FSO/RF hybrid system, the first being implemented in the region. Experimental results are compared to the above simulation results.

Keywords: atmospheric turbulence, haze, hybrid FSO/RF, outage probability, refractive index

Procedia PDF Downloads 391
14768 A Hierarchical Bayesian Calibration of Data-Driven Models for Composite Laminate Consolidation

Authors: Nikolaos Papadimas, Joanna Bennett, Amir Sakhaei, Timothy Dodwell

Abstract:

Composite modeling of consolidation processes is playing an important role in the process and part design by indicating the formation of possible unwanted prior to expensive experimental iterative trial and development programs. Composite materials in their uncured state display complex constitutive behavior, which has received much academic interest, and this with different models proposed. Errors from modeling and statistical which arise from this fitting will propagate through any simulation in which the material model is used. A general hyperelastic polynomial representation was proposed, which can be readily implemented in various nonlinear finite element packages. In our case, FEniCS was chosen. The coefficients are assumed uncertain, and therefore the distribution of parameters learned using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In engineering, the approach often followed is to select a single set of model parameters, which on average, best fits a set of experiments. There are good statistical reasons why this is not a rigorous approach to take. To overcome these challenges, A hierarchical Bayesian framework was proposed in which population distribution of model parameters is inferred from an ensemble of experiments tests. The resulting sampled distribution of hyperparameters is approximated using Maximum Entropy methods so that the distribution of samples can be readily sampled when embedded within a stochastic finite element simulation. The methodology is validated and demonstrated on a set of consolidation experiments of AS4/8852 with various stacking sequences. The resulting distributions are then applied to stochastic finite element simulations of the consolidation of curved parts, leading to a distribution of possible model outputs. With this, the paper, as far as the authors are aware, represents the first stochastic finite element implementation in composite process modelling.

Keywords: data-driven , material consolidation, stochastic finite elements, surrogate models

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14767 Application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) on the Virtual Process Hazard Analysis of Acetone Production Process

Authors: Princes Ann E. Prieto, Denise F. Alpuerto, John Rafael C. Unlayao, Neil Concibido, Monet Concepcion Maguyon-Detras

Abstract:

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been used in the virtual Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) of the Acetone production process through the dehydrogenation of isopropyl alcohol, for which very limited process risk assessment has been published. In this study, the potential failure modes, effects, and possible causes of selected major equipment in the process were identified. During the virtual FMEA mock sessions, the risks in the process were evaluated and recommendations to reduce and/or mitigate the process risks were formulated. The risk was estimated using the calculated risk priority number (RPN) and was classified into four (4) levels according to their effects on acetone production. Results of this study were also used to rank the criticality of equipment in the process based on the calculated criticality rating (CR). Bow tie diagrams were also created for the critical hazard scenarios identified in the study.

Keywords: chemical process safety, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), process hazard analysis (PHA), process safety management (PSM)

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14766 A Holistic Workflow Modeling Method for Business Process Redesign

Authors: Heejung Lee

Abstract:

In a highly competitive environment, it becomes more important to shorten the whole business process while delivering or even enhancing the business value to the customers and suppliers. Although the workflow management systems receive much attention for its capacity to practically support the business process enactment, the effective workflow modeling method remain still challenging and the high degree of process complexity makes it more difficult to gain the short lead time. This paper presents a workflow structuring method in a holistic way that can reduce the process complexity using activity-needs and formal concept analysis, which eventually enhances the key performance such as quality, delivery, and cost in business process.

Keywords: workflow management, re-engineering, formal concept analysis, business process

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14765 Image Segmentation Techniques: Review

Authors: Lindani Mbatha, Suvendi Rimer, Mpho Gololo

Abstract:

Image segmentation is the process of dividing an image into several sections, such as the object's background and the foreground. It is a critical technique in both image-processing tasks and computer vision. Most of the image segmentation algorithms have been developed for gray-scale images and little research and algorithms have been developed for the color images. Most image segmentation algorithms or techniques vary based on the input data and the application. Nearly all of the techniques are not suitable for noisy environments. Most of the work that has been done uses the Markov Random Field (MRF), which involves the computations and is said to be robust to noise. In the past recent years' image segmentation has been brought to tackle problems such as easy processing of an image, interpretation of the contents of an image, and easy analysing of an image. This article reviews and summarizes some of the image segmentation techniques and algorithms that have been developed in the past years. The techniques include neural networks (CNN), edge-based techniques, region growing, clustering, and thresholding techniques and so on. The advantages and disadvantages of medical ultrasound image segmentation techniques are also discussed. The article also addresses the applications and potential future developments that can be done around image segmentation. This review article concludes with the fact that no technique is perfectly suitable for the segmentation of all different types of images, but the use of hybrid techniques yields more accurate and efficient results.

Keywords: clustering-based, convolution-network, edge-based, region-growing

Procedia PDF Downloads 55