Search results for: load forecasting

Authors: Faruk Elaldi

Abstract:

There are lots of concrete columns and beams around in our living cities. Those columns are mostly open to aggressive environmental conditions and earthquakes. Mostly, they are deteriorated by sand, wind, humidity and other external applications at times. After a while, these beams and columns need to be repaired. Within the scope of this study, for reinforcement of concrete columns, samples were designed and fabricated to be strengthened with carbon fiber reinforced composite materials and conventional concrete encapsulation and followed by, and they were put into the axial compression test to determine load-carrying performance before column failure. In the first stage of this study, concrete column design and mold designs were completed for a certain load-carrying capacity. Later, the columns were exposed to environmental deterioration in order to reduce load-carrying capacity. To reinforce these damaged columns, two methods were applied, “concrete encapsulation” and the other one “wrapping with carbon fiber /epoxy” material. In the second stage of the study, the reinforced columns were applied to the axial compression test and the results obtained were analyzed. Cost and load-carrying performance comparisons were made and it was found that even though the carbon fiber/epoxy reinforced method is more expensive, this method enhances higher load-carrying capacity and reduces the reinforcement processing period.

Keywords: column reinforcement, composite, earth quake, carbon fiber reinforced

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Authors: Camilla Elphick, Graham Hole, Samuel Hutton, Graham Pike

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Pupil size has been found to change irrespective of luminosity, suggesting that it can be used to make inferences about cognitive processes, such as cognitive load. To see whether identifying a target requires a different cognitive load to rejecting distractors, the effect of viewing a target (compared with viewing distractors) on pupil size was investigated using a sequential video lineup procedure with two lineup sessions. Forty one participants were chosen randomly via the university. Pupil sizes were recorded when viewing pre target distractors and post target distractors and compared to pupil size when viewing the target. Overall, pupil size was significantly larger when viewing the target compared with viewing distractors. In the first session, pupil size changes were significantly different between participants who identified the target (Hits) and those who did not. Specifically, the pupil size of Hits reduced significantly after viewing the target (by 26%), suggesting that cognitive load reduced following identification. The pupil sizes of Misses (who made no identification) and False Alarms (who misidentified a distractor) did not reduce, suggesting that the cognitive load remained high in participants who failed to make the correct identification. In the second session, pupil sizes were smaller overall, suggesting that cognitive load was smaller in this session, and there was no significant difference between Hits, Misses and False Alarms. Furthermore, while the frequency of Hits increased, so did False Alarms. These two findings suggest that the benefits of including a second session remain uncertain, as the second session neither provided greater accuracy nor a reliable way to measure it. It is concluded that pupil size is a measure of face recognition strength in the first session of a target present lineup procedure. However, it is still not known whether cognitive load is an adequate explanation for this, or whether cognitive engagement might describe the effect more appropriately. If cognitive load and cognitive engagement can be teased apart with further investigation, this would have positive implications for understanding eyewitness identification. Nevertheless, this research has the potential to provide a tool for improving the reliability of lineup procedures.

Keywords: cognitive load, eyewitness identification, face recognition, pupillometry

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Authors: Rami A. Maher, Ibraheem K. Ibraheem

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This work presents a comparison study between the state-space and polynomial methods for the design of the robust governor for load frequency control of steam turbine power systems. The robust governor is synthesized using the two approaches and the comparison is extended to include time and frequency domains performance, controller order, and uncertainty representation, weighting filters, optimality and sub-optimality. The obtained results are represented through tables and curves with reasons of similarities and dissimilarities.

Keywords: robust control, load frequency control, steam turbine, H∞-norm, system uncertainty, load disturbance

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Authors: Josip Arneric, Blanka Skrabic Peric

Abstract:

Forecasting of volatility, i.e. returns fluctuations, has been a topic of interest to portfolio managers, option traders and market makers in order to get higher profits or less risky positions. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most common used models are GARCH type models. As standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance, it is difficult the predict volatility using standard GARCH models. Due to practical limitations of these models different approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on Markov switching models. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate because they allow some part of the model to depend on the state of the economy. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility for selected emerging markets.

Keywords: emerging markets, Markov switching, GARCH model, transition probabilities

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Authors: Mohammed Alhadi Ebrahiem

Abstract:

This study was designed to investigate the effect of breed and feeding level before slaughter on the skin\leather quality of the three main breeds of Sudan goats. Thirty (30) pieces of fresh skins from the three goat breeds (an average age 1-1.5 years) were chosen for the study purpose. For whole variations between the three breeds in two levels of feeding (poor and rich pastures) Complete Randomized Design (CRD) was used for data analysis. The results revealed that, leather weight (kg), elongation%, tensile strength (kg/cm2), cracking load (kg), thickness (mm), tear load (kg/cm) and chrome% findings were significantly affected (P≥0.05) by breed variation. Flexibility, moisture%, Ash% and fat % were not significantly affected (P ≥ 0.05) by breed. On the other hand, skin weight (kg), Cracking load (kg), Tear load (kg/cm) and Ash% were significantly affected (P≥0.05) by pasture quality. While Leather Elongation%, Tensile strength (kg/cm2), Thickness (mm), Flexibility, Moisture%, Fat % and Chrome% were not statistically (P ≥ 0.05) affected by pastures quality.

Keywords: skin\leather quality, goats leather, natural pasture, Sudan

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Authors: Amir H. Bayat, Mohammad R. Alipour, Saeed Khamneh

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As the respiration via nose is important physiologically, many studies have been done about nasal breathing that switches to oronasal breathing during exercise. The aim of this study was to assess the role of anterior nasal resistance as one of the effective factors on this switching. Twelve young, healthy, non-athletic and non-smoker male volunteers with normal BMI were selected after physical examination and participated in exercise protocol, including measurement of the ventilation, work load and oronasal switching point (OSP) during exercise, and anterior rhinomanometry at rest. The protocol was an incremental exercise with 25 watt increase in work load per minute up to OSP occurrence. There was a significant negative correlation between resting total anterior nasal resistance with OSP, work load and ventilation (p<0.05, r= -0.709). Resting total anterior nasal resistance can be considered as an important factor on OSP occurrence. So, the reducing the resistance of nasal passage may increase nasal respiration tolerance for longer time during exercise.

Keywords: anterior nasal resistance, exercise, OSP, ventilation, work load

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Authors: Taejin Kim, Heonwoo Lee, Jong-Ho Kim, Dongchul Lee

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Recently, there have been various high-rise building projects which reflect unique inspiration from architects to their feature. And it is frequently found that some of these buildings have diagrid structural system. Diagrid system provides engineers many options for structural plan, since it has triangular module so it can form a number of complex shapes. Unlike braced frame systems, diagonal members in diagrid system resist gravity and horizontal loads simultaneously. Correspondingly, diagrid members take roles of both beams and columns, and it is expected that their ductile capacity may depend on the amount of gravity loads. However, not enough studies have been made for this issue so far, which means that there is demand of examination on the seismic behavior of diagrid members under large gravity loads. Therefore, in this study, the ductile capacity of diagrid members was evaluated through analytical and experimental method. Several cases that have different vertical load condition were set up for both approaches to consider the effect of initial compression force due to gravity load. Regarding the result, it was found that buckling in a diagonal member occurs at smaller drift angle when larger gravity load acts on the specimen, which also reduces the amount of energy dissipation. It means that axial stress in a diagonal member reaches critical buckling force early due to the combined axial force from not only horizontal load but also gravity load.

Keywords: buckling, diagrid, ductility, seismic performance

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Authors: Rachel Y. Zhang, Christopher K. Anderson

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A critical aspect of revenue management is a firm’s ability to predict demand as a function of price. Historically hotels have used simple time series models (regression and/or pick-up based models) owing to the complexities of trying to build casual models of demands. Machine learning approaches are slowly attracting attention owing to their flexibility in modeling relationships. This study provides an overview of approaches to forecasting hospitality demand – focusing on the opportunities created by machine learning approaches, including K-Nearest-Neighbors, Support vector machine, Regression Tree, and Artificial Neural Network algorithms. The out-of-sample performances of above approaches to forecasting hotel demand are illustrated by using a proprietary sample of the market level (24 properties) transactional data for Las Vegas NV. Causal predictive models can be built and evaluated owing to the availability of market level (versus firm level) data. This research also compares and contrast model accuracy of firm-level models (i.e. predictive models for hotel A only using hotel A’s data) to models using market level data (prices, review scores, location, chain scale, etc… for all hotels within the market). The prospected models will be valuable for hotel revenue prediction given the basic characters of a hotel property or can be applied in performance evaluation for an existed hotel. The findings will unveil the features that play key roles in a hotel’s revenue performance, which would have considerable potential usefulness in both revenue prediction and evaluation.

Keywords: hotel revenue, k-nearest-neighbors, machine learning, neural network, prediction model, regression tree, support vector machine

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Authors: H. H. Goh, Q. S. Chua, S. W. Lee, B. C. Kok, K. C. Goh, K. T. K. Teo

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At present, the evaluation of voltage stability assessment experiences sizeable anxiety in the safe operation of power systems. This is due to the complications of a strain power system. With the snowballing of power demand by the consumers and also the restricted amount of power sources, therefore, the system has to perform at its maximum proficiency. Consequently, the noteworthy to discover the maximum ability boundary prior to voltage collapse should be undertaken. A preliminary warning can be perceived to evade the interruption of power system’s capacity. The effectiveness of line voltage stability indices (LVSI) is differentiated in this paper. The main purpose of the indices is used to predict the proximity of voltage instability of the electric power system. On the other hand, the indices are also able to decide the weakest load buses which are close to voltage collapse in the power system. The line stability indices are assessed using the IEEE 14 bus test system to validate its practicability. Results demonstrated that the implemented indices are practically relevant in predicting the manifestation of voltage collapse in the system. Therefore, essential actions can be taken to dodge the incident from arising.

Keywords: critical line, line outage, line voltage stability indices (LVSI), maximum loadability, voltage collapse, voltage instability, voltage stability analysis

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Authors: Wang Guangda, Ma Jun, Zhao Caiqi, Pan Rui

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Wind load is the main control load of large statue structures. Due to the irregular plane and elevation and uneven outer contour, statues’ shape coefficient can not pick up from the current code. Currently a common practice is based on wind tunnel test. But this method is time-consuming and high cost. In this paper, based on the fundamental theory of CFD, using fluid dynamics software of Fluent 15.0, a few large statue structure of 40 to 70m high, which are located in china , including large fairy statues and large Buddha statues, are analyzed by numerical wind tunnel. The results are contrasted with the recommended values in load code and the wind tunnel test results respectively. Results show that the shape coefficient has a good reliability by the numerical wind tunnel method of this kind of building. This will has a certain reference value of wind load values for large statues’ structure.

Keywords: large statue structure, shape coefficient, irregular structure, wind tunnel test, numerical wind tunnel simulation

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Authors: Bryan Young, Andrew Wodehouse, Marion Sheridan

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The availability of working memory has long been identified as a critical aspect of an instructional design. Many conventional instructional procedures impose irrelevant or unrelated cognitive loads on the learner due to the fact that they were created without contemplation, or understanding, of cognitive work load. Learning to physically operate traditional products can be viewed as a learning process akin to any other. As such, many of today's products, such as cars, boats, and planes, which have traditional controls that predate modern user-centered design techniques may be imposing irrelevant or unrelated cognitive loads on their operators. The goal of the research was to investigate the fundamental relationships between physical inputs, resulting actions, and learnability. The results showed that individuals can quickly adapt to input/output reversals across dimensions, however, individuals struggle to cope with the input/output when the dimensions are rotated due to the resulting increase in cognitive load.

Keywords: cognitive load theory, instructional design, physical product interactions, usability design

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Authors: Raja Kannusamy

Abstract:

The research focuses on reducing food waste in the restaurant industry. A study has been conducted on the chain of retail restaurant outlets. It has been observed that the food wastages are due to the inefficient inventory management systems practiced in the restaurant outlets. The major food items which are wasted more in quantity are being selected across the retail chain outlets. A moving average forecasting method has been applied for the selected food items so that their future demand could be predicted accurately and food wastage could be avoided. It has been found that the moving average prediction method helps in predicting forecasts accurately. The demand values obtained from the moving average method have been compared to the actual demand values and are found to be similar with minimum variations. The inventory optimization technique helps in reducing food wastage in restaurant supply chain outlets.

Keywords: food wastage, restaurant supply chain, inventory optimisation, demand forecasting

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Authors: Ahmad Shayeq Azizi, Yuji Toda

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In Afghanistan, floods are the most frequent and recurrent events among other natural disasters. On the other hand, lack of monitoring data is a severe problem, which increases the difficulty of making the appropriate flood countermeasures of flood forecasting. This study is carried out to simulate the flood inundation in Harirud River Basin by application of distributed hydrological model, Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) and 2D hydrodynamic model, International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) based on satellite rainfall combined with historical peak discharge and global accessed data. The results of the simulation can predict the inundation area, depth and velocity, and the hardware countermeasures such as the impact of levee installation can be discussed by using the present method. The methodology proposed in this study is suitable for the area where hydrological and geographical data including river survey data are poorly observed.

Keywords: distributed hydrological model, flood inundation, hydrodynamic model, ungauged basins

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Authors: R. Mehta, M. Ghogomu, B. Schoel

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Reports appeared in 2020 about China detecting SARS-Cov-2 (Covid-19) on frozen meat, shrimp, and food packaging material. In this study, we examined the use of swabs for the detection of Covid-19 on meat samples, and chicken breast (CB) was used as a model. Methods: Heat inactivated SARS-Cov-2 virus (IV) from Microbiologics was loaded onto the CB, swabbing was done, and the recovered inactivated virus was subjected to the Machery & Nagel NucleoSpin RNAVirus kit for RNA isolation according to manufacturer's instructions. For RT-PCR, the IDT 2019-nCoV RUO Covid-19 test kit was used with the Taqman Fast Virus 1-step master mix. The limit of detection (LOD) of viral load recovered from the CB was determined under various conditions: first on frozen CB where the IV was introduced on a defined area, then on frozen CB, with IV spread-out, and finally, on thawed CB. Results: The lowest amount of IV which can be reliably detected on frozen CB was a load of 1,000 - 2,000 IV copies where the IV was loaded on one spot of about 1 square inch. Next, the IV was spread out over a whole frozen CB about 16 square inches. The IV could be recovered at a lowest load of 4,000 to 8,000 copies. Furthermore, the effects of temperature change on viral load recovery was investigated i.e., if raw unfrozen meat became contaminated and remains for 1 hour at 4°C or gets refrozen. The amount of IV recovered successfully from CB kept at 4°C and the refrozen CB was similar to the recovery gotten from loading the IV directly on the frozen CB. In conclusion, an assay using swabs was successfully established for the detection of SARS-Cov-2 on frozen or raw (unfrozen) CB with a minimal load of up to 8,000 copies spread over 16 square inches.

Keywords: assay, COVID-19, meat, SARS-Cov-2

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Authors: Ahmed Elkholy

Abstract:

Most power transmission cases use gearing in general, and worm gearing, in particular for energy utilization. Therefore, designing gears for minimum weight and maximum power transmission is the main target of this study. In this regard, a new approach has been developed to estimate the load share and stress distribution of worm gear sets. The approach is based upon considering the instantaneous tooth meshing stiffness where the worm gear drive was modelled as a series of spur gear slices, and each slice was analyzed separately using a well-established criteria. By combining the results obtained for all slices, the entire worm gear set loading and stressing was determined. The geometric modelling method presented, allows tooth elastic deformation and tooth root stresses of worm gear drives under different load conditions to be investigated. On the basis of the method introduced in this study, the instantaneous meshing stiffness and load share were obtained. In comparison with existing methods, this approach has both good analytical accuracy and less computing time.

Keywords: gear, load/stress distribution, worm, wheel, tooth stiffness, contact line

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Authors: B. Kędra, R. Małkowski

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This paper presents information on Power System Component Simulator – a device designed for LINTE^2 laboratory owned by Gdansk University of Technology in Poland. In this paper, we first provide an introductory information on the Power System Component Simulator and its capabilities. Then, the concept of the unit is presented. Requirements for the unit are described as well as proposed and introduced functions are listed. Implementation details are given. Hardware structure is presented and described. Information about used communication interface, data maintenance and storage solution, as well as used Simulink real-time features are presented. List and description of all measurements is provided. Potential of laboratory setup modifications is evaluated. Lastly, the results of experiments performed using Power System Component Simulator are presented. This includes simulation of under frequency load shedding, frequency and voltage dependent characteristics of groups of load units, time characteristics of group of different load units in a chosen area.

Keywords: power converter, Simulink Real-Time, Matlab, load, tap controller

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Authors: T. Yilmaz, N. Kirac

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Beam-column elements are defined as structural members subjected to a combination of axial and bending forces. Lateral torsional buckling is one of the major failure modes in which beam-columns that are bent about its strong axis may buckle out of the plane by deflecting laterally and twisting. This study presents a compact closed-form equation that it can be used for calculating critical lateral torsional-buckling load of beam-columns with monosymmetric sections in the presence of a known axial load. Lateral-torsional buckling behavior of beam-columns subjected to constant axial force and various transverse load cases are investigated by using Ritz method in order to establish proposed equation. Lateral-torsional buckling loads calculated by presented formula are compared to finite element model results. ABAQUS software is utilized to generate finite element models of beam-columns. It is found out that lateral-torsional buckling load of beam-columns with monosymmetric sections can be determined by proposed equation and can be safely used in design.

Keywords: lateral-torsional buckling, stability, beam-column, monosymmetric section

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Authors: Morteza Aien, Masoud Rashidinejad, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad

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As energetic and environmental issues are getting more and more attention all around the world, the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) mainly those harvesting renewable energies (REs) ascends with an unprecedented rate. This matter causes more uncertainties to appear in the power system context; ergo, the uncertainty analysis of the system performance is an obligation. The uncertainties of any system can be represented probabilistically or possibilistically. Since sufficient historical data about all the system variables is not available, therefore, they do not have a probability density function (PDF) and must be represented possibilistiacally. When some of system uncertain variables are probabilistic and some are possibilistic, neither the conventional pure probabilistic nor pure possibilistic methods can be implemented. Hence, a combined solution is appealed. The first of this two-paper series formulates a new possibilistic-probabilistic tool for the load flow uncertainty assessment. The proposed methodology is based on the evidence theory and joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties. This possibilistic- probabilistic formulation is solved in the second companion paper in an uncertain load flow (ULF) study problem.

Keywords: probabilistic uncertainty modeling, possibilistic uncertainty modeling, uncertain load flow, wind turbine generator

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Authors: Chattrarat Hotrawaisaya

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This research aims to formulate the logistics collaborative model which is the management tool for orchid flower exporter. The researchers study logistics activities in orchid supply chain that stakeholders can collaborate and develop, including demand forecasting, inventory management, warehouse and storage, order-processing, and transportation management. The research also explores logistics collaboration implementation into orchid’s stakeholders. The researcher collected data before implementation and after model implementation. Consequently, the costs and efficiency were calculated and compared between pre and post period of implementation. The research found that the results of applying the logistics collaborative model to orchid exporter reduces inventory cost and transport cost. The model also improves forecasting accuracy, and synchronizes supply chain of exporter. This research paper contributes the uniqueness logistics collaborative model which value to orchid industry in Thailand. The orchid exporters may use this model as their management tool which aims in competitive advantage.

Keywords: logistics, orchid, supply chain, collaboration

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Authors: Parveen K. Saini, Tarun Agarwal

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An investigation into the effect of countersunk depth, plate thickness, countersunk angle and plate width on the stress concentration around countersunk hole is carried out with the help of finite element analysis. The variation of stress concentration with respect to these parameters is studied for three types of loading viz. uniformly distributed load, uniformly varying load and functionally distributed load. The results of the finite element analysis are interpreted and some conclusions are drawn. The distribution of stress concentration around countersunk hole in isotropic plates simply supported at all the edges is found similar and is independent of loading. The maximum stress concentration also occurs at a particular point irrespective of the loading conditions.

Keywords: stress concentration factor, countersunk hole, finite element, ANSYS

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Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

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This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: electricity price, k-factor GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, forecasting

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Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

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Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting

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Authors: Benalia Nadia, Bensiali Nadia, Zezouri Noura

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This paper studies the effects of voltage sags, both symmetrical and unsymmetrical, on the three-phase Synchronous Machine (SM) when powering an isolate load or infinite bus bar. The vast majority of the electrical power generation systems in the world is consist of synchronous generators coupled to the electrical network though a transformer. Voltage sags on SM cause speed variations, current and torque peaks and hence may cause tripping and equipment damage. The consequences of voltage sags in the machine behavior depends on different factors such as its magnitude (or depth), duration , the parameters of the machine and also the size of load. In this study, we consider the machine feeds an infinite bus bar in the first and the isolate load using symmetric and asymmetric defaults to see the behavior of the machine in both case the simulation have been used on SIMULINK MATLAB.

Keywords: power quality, voltage sag, synchronous generator, infinite system

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Authors: S. H. Kazmi, T. Ahmed, K. Javed, A. Ghani

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In this paper static scheme of under-frequency based load shedding is considered for chemical and petrochemical industries with islanded distribution networks relying heavily on the primary commodity to ensure minimum production loss, plant downtime or critical equipment shutdown. A simplistic methodology is proposed for in-house implementation of this scheme using underfrequency relays and a step by step guide is provided including the techniques to calculate maximum percentage overloads, frequency decay rates, time based frequency response and frequency based time response of the system. Case study of FFL electrical system is utilized, presenting the actual system parameters and employed load shedding settings following the similar series of steps. The arbitrary settings are then verified for worst overload conditions (loss of a generation source in this case) and comprehensive system response is then investigated.

Keywords: islanding, under-frequency load shedding, frequency rate of change, static UFLS

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Authors: Juan Bojórquez, Sonia E. Ruiz, Edén Bojórquez, David de León Escobedo

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A life-cycle optimization procedure to establish the best load factors combinations for seismic design of buildings, is proposed. The expected cost of damage from future earthquakes within the life of the structure is estimated, and realistic cost functions are assumed. The functions include: Repair cost, cost of contents damage, cost associated with loss of life, cost of injuries and economic loss. The loads considered are dead, live and earthquake load. The study is performed for reinforced concrete buildings located in Mexico City. The buildings are modeled as multiple-degree-of-freedom frame structures. The parameter selected to measure the structural damage is the maximum inter-story drift. The structural models are subjected to 31 soft-soil ground motions recorded in the Lake Zone of Mexico City. In order to obtain the annual structural failure rates, a numerical integration method is applied.

Keywords: load factors, life-cycle analysis, seismic design, reinforced concrete buildings

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Authors: Hatem Hamdy Ghieth

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In the recent time many fires happened in many skeleton buildings. The fire may be continues for a long time. This fire may cause a collapse of the building. This collapse may be happened due to the time of exposure to fire as well as the rate of the loading to the carrying elements. In this research a laboratory study for reinforced concrete columns under effect of fire with temperature reaches (650 ْ C) on the behavior of columns which loaded with axial load and with exposing to fire temperature only from all sides of columns. the main parameters of this study are level of load applying to the column, and the temperature applied to the fire, this temperatures was 500oC and 650oc. Nine concrete columns with dimensions 20x20x100 cms were casted one of these columns was tested to determine the ultimate load while the least were fired according to the experimental schedule.

Keywords: columns, fire duration, concrete strength, level of loading

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Authors: Eylem Guzel, Faruk Osmanoglu, Muhammet Kurucu

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The concrete filled steel tube (CFST) columns are commonly used in construction applications such as high-rise buildings and bridges owing to its lots of remarkable benefits. The use of concrete-filled steel tube columns provides large areas by reduction in cross-sectional area of columns. The main aim of this study is to examine the axial load capacities of circular high strength concrete-filled steel tube columns according to Eurocode 4 (EC4) and Chinese Code (DL/T). The results showed that the predictions of EC4 and Chinese Code DL/T are unsafe for all specimens.

Keywords: concrete-filled steel tube column, axial load capacity, Chinese code, Australian standard

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Authors: R. J. Kuo, W. C. Cheng, W. C. Lien, T. J. Yang

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Taiwan is a hyper endemic area for the Hepatitis B virus (HBV). The estimated total number of HBsAg carriers in the general population who are more than 20 years old is more than 3 million. Therefore, a case record review is conducted from January 2003 to June 2007 for all patients with a diagnosis of acute hepatitis who were admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of a well-known teaching hospital. The cost for the use of medical resources is defined as the total medical fee. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA) is firstly employed to reduce the number of dimensions. Support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN) are then used to develop the forecasting model. A total of 117 patients meet the inclusion criteria. 61% patients involved in this study are hepatitis B related. The computational result shows that the proposed PCA-SVR model has superior performance than other compared algorithms. In conclusion, the Child-Pugh score and echogram can both be used to predict the cost of medical resources for patients with acute hepatitis in the ED.

Keywords: acute hepatitis, medical resource cost, artificial neural network, support vector regression

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Authors: Iyad M. Muslih, Yehya Abdellatif, Sara Qutishat

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Renewable energy and in particular solar photovoltaic energy is emerging as a reasonable power generation source. The intermittent and unpredictable nature of solar energy can represent a serious challenge to the utility grids, specifically at relatively high penetration. To minimize the impact of PV power systems on the grid, self-consumption is encouraged. Self-consumption can be improved by matching the PV power generation with the electrical load consumption profile. This study will focus in studying different load profiles and comparing them to typical solar PV power generation at the selected sites with the purpose of analyzing the mismatch in consumption load profile for different users; residential, commercial, and industrial versus the solar photovoltaic output generation. The PV array orientation can be adjusted to reduce the mismatch effects. The orientation shift produces a corresponding shift in the energy production curve. This shift has a little effect on the mismatch for residential loads due to the fact the peak load occurs at night due to lighting loads. This minor gain does not justify the power production loss associated with the orientation shift. The orientation shift for both commercial and industrial cases lead to valuable decrease in the mismatch effects. Such a design is worth considering for reducing grid penetration. Furthermore, the proposed orientation shift yielded better results during the summer time due to the extended daylight hours.

Keywords: grid impact, HOMER, power mismatch, solar PV energy

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Authors: Sakura Yoshii, Masakazu Abe, Akihiro Iijima

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Nitrogen saturation has become one of the serious issues in the field of forest environment. The watershed protection forests located in the downwind hinterland of Tokyo Metropolitan Area are believed to be facing nitrogen saturation. In this study, we carefully focus on the balance of nitrogen between load and runoff. Annual nitrogen load via atmospheric deposition was estimated to 461.1 t-N/year in the upper reaches of the Kanna River. Annual nitrogen runoff to the forested headwater stream of the Kanna River was determined to 184.9 t-N/year, corresponding to 40.1% of the total nitrogen load. Clear seasonal change in NO3-N concentration was still observed. Therefore, watershed protection forest of the Kanna River is most likely to be in Stage-1 on the status of nitrogen saturation.

Keywords: atmospheric deposition, nitrogen accumulation, denitrification, forest ecosystems

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