Search results for: insurance markets

Authors: E.George, P. Ojeaga, O. Matthew, A. Adekola

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Can foreign direct investment (FDI), promote growth in Africa? What does the inflow of investment hold for African emerging economies? Are the determinants of FDI different for different regional blocs in Africa? This study reviews the implication of FDI for different regional blocs in Africa. FDI was found to have a significant effect on growth in North Africa but had no significant effect in East, Southern and West Africa. FDI was also found not to be driving growth in the whole of Africa in a significant manner. The implications of the findings are that even though trade openness seems to be a major factor driving FDI. Poor domestic markets were still preventing many African economies from taking full advantage of the gains from foreign direct investment. The study results could be useful to scholars who study the dynamics surrounding FDI disbursement and strategies on how FDI can drive growth in developing countries.

Keywords: Africa, political economy, FDI, regional policy, markets

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Authors: Salma Krafessi

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The financial markets have a multifaceted, intricate environment, and enormous volumes of data are produced every day. To find investment possibilities, possible fraudulent activity, and market oddities, accurate anomaly identification in this data is essential. Conventional methods for detecting anomalies frequently fail to capture the complex organization of financial data. In order to improve the identification of abnormalities in financial time series data, this study presents Tucker Decomposition as a reliable multi-way analysis approach. We start by gathering closing prices for the S&P 500 index across a number of decades. The information is converted to a three-dimensional tensor format, which contains internal characteristics and temporal sequences in a sliding window structure. The tensor is then broken down using Tucker Decomposition into a core tensor and matching factor matrices, allowing latent patterns and relationships in the data to be captured. A possible sign of abnormalities is the reconstruction error from Tucker's Decomposition. We are able to identify large deviations that indicate unusual behavior by setting a statistical threshold. A thorough examination that contrasts the Tucker-based method with traditional anomaly detection approaches validates our methodology. The outcomes demonstrate the superiority of Tucker's Decomposition in identifying intricate and subtle abnormalities that are otherwise missed. This work opens the door for more research into multi-way data analysis approaches across a range of disciplines and emphasizes the value of tensor-based methods in financial analysis.

Keywords: tucker decomposition, financial markets, financial engineering, artificial intelligence, decomposition models

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Authors: Babak Kamrani, Nozar Kishi

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Stochastic catalog represents the events module of the earthquake loss estimation models. It includes series of events with different magnitudes and corresponding frequencies/probabilities. For the development of the stochastic catalog, random or uniform sampling methods are used to sample the events from the seismicity model. For covering all the Magnitude Frequency Distribution (MFD), a huge number of events should be generated for the above-mentioned methods. Characteristic Event (CE) method chooses the events based on the interest of the insurance industry. We divide the MFD of each source into bins. We have chosen the bins based on the probability of the interest by the insurance industry. First, we have collected the information for the available seismic sources. Sources are divided into Fault sources, subduction, and events without specific fault source. We have developed the MFD for each of the individual and areal source based on the seismicity of the sources. Afterward, we have calculated the CE magnitudes based on the desired probability. To develop the stochastic catalog, we have introduced uncertainty to the location of the events too.

Keywords: stochastic catalogue, earthquake loss, uncertainty, characteristic event

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Authors: Engy Eissa, Dina M. Yousri

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COVID-19 has hit massively the world economy, financial markets and even societies’ livelihood. The infectious disease caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus was claimed responsible for a shrink in the global economy by 4.4% in 2020. Shortly after the first case in Wuhan was identified, a quick surge in the number of confirmed cases in China was evident and a vast spread worldwide is recorded with cases surpassing the 500,000 cases. Irrespective of the disease’s trajectory in each country, a call for immediate action and prompt government intervention was needed. Given that there is no one-size-fits-all approach across the world, a number of containment and adoption policies were embraced. It was starting by enforcing complete lockdown like China to even stricter policies targeted containing the spread of the virus, augmenting the efficiency of health systems, and controlling the economic outcomes arising from this crisis. Hence, this paper has three folds; first, it examines the impact of containment policies taken by governments on controlling the number of cases and deaths in the given countries. Second, to assess the ramifications of COVID-19 on financial markets measured by stock returns. Third, to study the impact of containment policies measured by the government response index, the stringency index, the containment health index, and the economic support index on financial markets performance. Using a sample of daily data covering the period 31st of January 2020 to 15th of April 2021 for the 10 most hit countries in wave one by COVID-19 namely; Brazil, India, Turkey, Russia, UK, USA, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy. The aforementioned relationships were tested using Panel VAR Regression. The preliminary results showed that the number of daily deaths had an impact on the stock returns; moreover, the health containment policies and the economic support provided by the governments had a significant effect on lowering the impact of COVID-19 on stock returns.

Keywords: COVID-19, government policies, stock returns, VAR

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal

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In today’s world, companies are operating in dynamic, uncertain and ambiguous business environments. Globally, more companies are failing due to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors than ever. Corporate governance and risk management are intertwined in nature. For decades, corporate governance and risk management have been influenced by internal and external factors. Three schools of thought have influenced risk governance for decades: Agency theory, Contingency theory, and Institutional theory. Agency theory argues that agents have interests conflicting with principal interests and the information problem. Contingency theory suggests that risk management adoption is influenced by internal and external factors, while Institutional theory suggests that organizations legitimize risk management with regulators, competitors, and professional bodies. The conflicting objectives of theories have created problems for executives in organizations in the adoption of Risk Governance. So far, there are many studies that discussed risk culture and the role of actors in risk governance, but there are rare studies discussing the role of risk culture in the adoption of risk governance from a leadership style perspective. This study explores the adoption of risk governance in two contrasting industries, such as the Insurance and energy business, to understand whether risk governance is influenced by internal/external factors or whether risk culture is influenced by leaders. We draw empirical evidence by comparing the cases of an Indian insurance company and a renewable energy-based firm in India. We interviewed more than 20 senior executives of companies and collected annual reports, risk management policies, and more than 10 PPTs and other reports from 2017 to 2024. We visited the company for follow-up questions several times. The findings of my research revealed that both companies have used risk governance for strategic renewal of the company. Insurance companies use a transactional leadership style based on performance and reward for improving risk, while energy companies use rather symbolic management to make debt restructuring meaningful for stakeholders. Overall, both companies turned from loss-making to profitable ones in a few years. This comparative study highlights the role of different leadership styles in the adoption of risk governance. The study is also distinct as previous research rarely studied risk governance in two contrasting industries in reference to leadership styles.

Keywords: leadership style, corporate governance, risk management, risk culture, strategic renewal

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Authors: Mai A. Ibrahim, Mohammed El-Beltagy, Motaz Khorshid

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Emerging Markets return distributions have shown significance departure from normality were they are characterized by fatter tails relative to the normal distribution and exhibit levels of skewness and kurtosis that constitute a significant departure from normality. Therefore, the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance is not applicable for emerging markets since it assumes normally-distributed returns (with zero skewness and kurtosis) and a quadratic utility function. Moreover, the Markowitz mean-variance analysis can be used in cases of moderate non-normality and it still provides a good approximation of the expected utility, but it may be ineffective under large departure from normality. Higher moments models and median models have been suggested in the literature for asset allocation in this case. Higher moments models have been introduced to account for the insufficiency of the description of a portfolio by only its first two moments while the median model has been introduced as a robust statistic which is less affected by outliers than the mean. Tail risk measures such as Value-at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) have been introduced instead of Variance to capture the effect of risk. In this research, higher moment models including the Mean-Variance-Skewness (MVS) and Mean-Variance-Skewness-Kurtosis (MVSK) are formulated as single-objective non-linear programming problems (NLP) and median models including the Median-Value at Risk (MedVaR) and Median-Mean Absolute Deviation (MedMAD) are formulated as a single-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems. The higher moment models and median models are compared to some benchmark portfolios and tested on real financial data in the Egyptian main Index EGX30. The results show that all the median models outperform the higher moment models were they provide higher final wealth for the investor over the entire period of study. In addition, the results have confirmed the inapplicability of the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance to the Egyptian stock market as it resulted in very low realized profits.

Keywords: Egyptian stock exchange, emerging markets, higher moment models, median models, mixed-integer linear programming, non-linear programming

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Authors: Faheem Ur Rehman, Muhammad Khalil Khan, Miao Qing

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This study investigated the asymmetric links and portfolio strategies between green bonds and the markets of three different cryptocurrencies, i.e., green, Islamic, and conventional, using data from January 1, 2018, to April 8, 2022, and employing asymmetric TVP-VAR model to quantify risk spillovers in the network analysis. In addition, we use the minimum variance, minimum correlation, and minimum connectedness methodologies to assess the portfolio implications. The results of the asymmetric dynamic connectedness index (TCI) model show that by adopting cryptocurrencies for digital finance, risk spillovers are found to be reduced. The findings of net directional connectedness demonstrate that during the study period, green bonds consistently get return spillovers from all other network variables. Positive return spillovers are bigger in magnitude than negative ones. These results imply that the influence of the green bond market on the cryptocurrency markets is decreasing. Positive return spillovers generate higher connectedness values for (HG, BNB, and TRX) coins and persistent net recipients in the specific network. On the other hand, Cardano and ADA coins are persistent net transmitters in the system. XLM and MIOTA's responsibilities shift over time, and there is evidence of asymmetry when both positive and negative returns are considered. According to the pairwise portfolio weights, BNB vs. BTC has the largest portfolio weights in the system, followed by BNB vs. Ethereum, suggesting the best investment strategies in the network.

Keywords: asymmetric TVP-VAR, global sustainable index, cryptocurrency, portfolios

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Authors: Damien Kunjal, Faeezah Peerbhai

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Despite the increasing popularity of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), ETF investment choices may not always be rational. Excess trading volume, misevaluations of securities, and excess return volatility present in financial markets can be attributed to the influence of the overconfidence bias. Whilst previous research has explored the overconfidence bias in stock markets; this study focuses on trading in ETF markets. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the presence of investor overconfidence in the South African ETF market. Using vector autoregressive models, the lead-lag relationship between market turnover and the market return is examined for the market of South African ETFs tracking domestic benchmarks and for the market of South African ETFs tracking international benchmarks over the period November 2000 till August 2019. Consistent with the overconfidence hypothesis, a positive relationship between current market turnover and lagged market return is found for both markets, even after controlling for market volatility and cross-sectional dispersion. This relationship holds for both market and individual ETF turnover suggesting that investors are overconfident when trading in South African ETFs tracking domestic benchmarks and South African ETFs tracking international benchmarks since trading activity depends on past market returns. Additionally, using the global recession as a structural break, this study finds that investor overconfidence is more pronounced after the global recession suggesting that investors perceive ETFs as risk-reducing assets due to their diversification benefits. Overall, the results of this study indicate that the overconfidence bias has a significant influence on ETF investment choices, therefore, suggesting that the South African ETF market is inefficient since investors’ decisions are based on their biases. As a result, the effect of investor overconfidence can account for the difference between the fair value of ETFs and its current market price. This finding has implications for policymakers whose responsibility is to promote the efficiency of the South African ETF market as well as ETF investors and traders who trade in the South African ETF market.

Keywords: exchange-traded fund, market return, market turnover, overconfidence, trading activity

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Authors: Rotem Mashkov, Noam Shoval

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In an age when a tourist’s gaze is more focused on the daily lives of locals, it is evident that local food markets are being rediscovered. Traditional urban markets succeed in reinventing themselves as a space for consumption, recreation, and culture, enabling authentic experiences and interpersonal interactions with the local culture. Alongside this, the pressure of tourism development may result in commercialization and retail gentrification to the point of losing the sense of local identity. The issue of finding a balance between tourism development and the preservation of unique local features is at the heart of this study and is being tested using the case of the Mahane Yehuda market in Jerusalem. The research question—how merchants respond to tourism development in the Mahane Yehuda food market— focuses on local traders, a group of players who are usually absent from the research arenas, although they influence tourism development as well as influenced by it. Three main research methods were integrated into this study. The first two methods, a survey of articles survey and comparative mapping of the business mix, were used to characterize the changes in the Mahane Yehuda market both consciously and physically. The third research method, involving in-depth interviews with merchants, was used to examine the traders' attitudes and responses to tourism development. The findings indicate that there has been a turnaround in the market image over the past decade and a half. Additionally, there has been a significant physical change in the business mix, reflected by a decline of 15% in the number of stalls selling food products and delicacies. The data from the interviews on the traders’ attitudes towards tourism development were inconclusive; there were disagreements among the traders about the economic contribution of tourism development in relation to their dependence on the tourism industry. However, there was a consensus on the need for authentic elements in the marketplace. The findings of the study also indicate a strong link between the merchants’ response to tourism development and their stall ownership status as the merchant could exercise their position in various ways depending on the possession type.

Keywords: business mix, Jerusalem, local food markets, Mahane Yehuda market, merchants’ attitude, ownership status, retail gentrification, tourism development, traditional urban markets

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Authors: Ahmet Diken, Tahsin Karabulut

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The factor which developing countries are in need is capital. Such countries make an effort to increase their income in order to meet their expenses for employment, infrastructure, superstructure investments, education, health and defense. The sole income of the countries is taxes collected from businesses. The businesses should drive profit and return in order to be able to toll. In a world where competition exists, different strategies may be followed by business in developing countries and they must specify their target markets. İn order to minimize cost and maximize profit, SMEs have to concentrate on target markets and select cost oriented strategy. In this study, a theoretical model is suggested that SME firms have to act as cluster between each other, and also must be optimal provider for large scale firms. SMEs’ policy must be supported by public. This relationship can benefit large scale firms to have brand over the world, and this organization increases value added for developing countries.

Keywords: competitiveness, countries, SMEs developing, sustainability

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Authors: Mwehe Mathenge, Ben G. J. S. Sonneveld, Jacqueline E. W. Broerse

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Smallholder farmers are important drivers of agriculture productivity, food security, and poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, they are faced with myriad challenges in their efforts at participating in agribusiness markets. How the geographic explicit factors existing at the local level interact to impede smallholder farmers' decision to participates (or not) in agribusiness markets is not well understood. Deconstructing the spatial complexity of the local environment could provide a deeper insight into how geographically explicit determinants promote or impede resource-poor smallholder farmers from participating in agribusiness. This paper’s objective was to identify, map, and analyze local spatial autocorrelation in factors that impede poor smallholders from participating in agribusiness markets. Data were collected using geocoded researcher-administered survey questionnaires from 392 households in Western Kenya. Three spatial statistics methods in geographic information system (GIS) were used to analyze data -Global Moran’s I, Cluster and Outliers Analysis (Anselin Local Moran’s I), and geographically weighted regression. The results of Global Moran’s I reveal the presence of spatial patterns in the dataset that was not caused by spatial randomness of data. Subsequently, Anselin Local Moran’s I result identified spatially and statistically significant local spatial clustering (hot spots and cold spots) in factors hindering smallholder participation. Finally, the geographically weighted regression results unearthed those specific geographic explicit factors impeding market participation in the study area. The results confirm that geographically explicit factors are indispensable in influencing the smallholder farming decisions, and policymakers should take cognizance of them. Additionally, this research demonstrated how geospatial explicit analysis conducted at the local level, using geographically disaggregated data, could help in identifying households and localities where the most impoverished and resource-poor smallholder households reside. In designing spatially targeted interventions, policymakers could benefit from geospatial analysis methods in understanding complex geographic factors and processes that interact to influence smallholder farmers' decision-making processes and choices.

Keywords: agribusiness markets, GIS, smallholder farmers, spatial statistics, disaggregated spatial data

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Authors: Malay Bhattacharyya, Saparya Suresh

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The Correlation Structure associated with a portfolio is subjected to vary across time. Studying the structural breaks in the time-dependent Correlation matrix associated with a collection had been a subject of interest for a better understanding of the market movements, portfolio selection, etc. The current paper proposes a methodology for testing the change in the time-dependent correlation structure of a portfolio in the high dimensional data using the techniques of generalized inverse, singular valued decomposition and multivariate distribution theory which has not been addressed so far. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test are derived. Also, the performance and the validity of the method is tested on a real data set. The proposed test performs well for detecting the change in the dependence of global markets in the context of high dimensional data.

Keywords: correlation structure, high dimensional data, multivariate distribution theory, singular valued decomposition

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Authors: Mami Sugiura, Shinichi Arakawa, Masayuki Murata, Satoshi Imai, Toru Katagiri, Motoyoshi Sekiya

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API (Application Programming Interface) economy, where many participants join/interact and form the economy, is expected to increase collaboration between information services through API, and thereby, it is expected to increase market value from the service collaborations. In this paper, we introduce API evaluators, which are the activator of API economy by reviewing and/or evaluating APIs, and develop a multi-sided API economy model that formulates interactions among platform provider, API developers, consumers, and API evaluators. By obtaining the equilibrium that maximizes utility of all participants, the impact of API evaluators on the utility of participants in the API economy is revealed. Numerical results show that, with the existence of API evaluators, the number of developers and consumers increase by 1.5% and the utility of platformer increases by 2.3%. We also discuss the strategies of platform provider to maximize its utility under the existence of API evaluators.

Keywords: API economy, multi-sided markets, API evaluator, platform, platform provider

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Authors: Chang Lee Shu-Jung, Mei-Se Chien, Chien-Chiang Lee, Hui-Ting Hu

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This paper applies recursive cointegration analysis to examine the dynamic changes in Feldstein-Horioka saving-investment (S-I) coefficients across China and the ASEAN-5 countries over time. To the extent that the S-I coefficients measure international capital mobility, the main empirical results are as follows. The recursive trace statistics show that the investment- savings nexus varies in these six countries. There is no cointegration between investment and savings in three countries (China, Malaysia, and Singapore), which means that the mobility of the capital markets in the three is high and that domestic investment in them will be financed by the global pool of capital. As to the other three countries (Indonesia, Thailand, and Philippines), there is cointegration between investment and savings for part of the sample period in the three, including before 2002 for Thailand, before 2001 for Indonesia, and before 2002 for Philippines. This shows these three countries achieved highly mobile and open capital markets later.

Keywords: investment, savings, recursive cointegration test, ASEAN, China

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Authors: Greg Zimmerman

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Background: Major depression is a common illness that affects millions of people globally. It is the leading cause of disability and is projected to become the number one cause of the global burden of disease by 2030. Many of those who suffer from depression also suffer from Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS). Acupuncture has been shown to help depression. The aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of acupuncture in reducing the risk of IBS in patients with depression. Methods: We enrolled patients diagnosed with depression through the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). Propensity score matching was used to match equal numbers (n=32971) of the acupuncture cohort and no-acupuncture cohort based on characteristics including sex, age, baseline comorbidity, and medication. The Cox regression model was used to compare the hazard ratios (HRs) of IBS in the two cohorts. Results: The basic characteristics of the two groups were similar. The cumulative incidence of IBS was significantly lower in the acupuncture cohort than in the no-acupuncture cohort (Log-rank test, p<0.001). Conclusion: The results provided real-world evidence that acupuncture may have a beneficial effect on IBS risk reduction in patients with depression.

Keywords: acupuncture, depression, irritable bowel syndrome, national health insurance research database, real-world evidence

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Authors: Algia Hammami, Abdelfatteh Bouri

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In this work, our objective is to study the transmission of volatility between oil and stock markets in developed (USA, Germany, Italy, France and Japan) and emerging countries (Tunisia, Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, and Jordan) for the period 1998-2015. Our methodology consists of analyzing the monthly data by the GARCH-BEKK model to capture the effect in terms of volatility in the variation of the oil price on the different stock market. The empirical results in the emerging countries indicate that the relationships are unidirectional from the stock market to the oil market. For the developed countries, we find that the transmission of volatility is unidirectional from the oil market to stock market. For the USA and Italy, we find no transmission between the two markets. The transmission is bi-directional only in Thailand. Following our estimates, we also noticed that the emerging countries influence almost the same extent as the developed countries, while at the transmission of volatility there a bid difference. The GARCH-BEKK model is more effective than the others versions to minimize the risk of an oil-stock portfolio.

Keywords: GARCH, oil prices, stock market, volatility transmission

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Authors: Oleg Oborin

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This paper is dedicated to the development of the model, which can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of long-term corporate strategies and identify the best strategies. The theoretical model of the relatively homogenous product market (such as iron and steel industry, mobile services or road transport) has been developed. In the model, the market consists of a large number of companies with different internal characteristics and objectives. The companies can perform mergers and acquisitions in order to increase their market share. The model allows the simulation of long-time dynamics of the market (for a period longer than 20 years). Therefore, a large number of simulations on random input data was conducted in the framework of the model. After that, the results of the model were compared with the dynamics of real markets, such as the US steel industry from the beginning of the XX century to the present day, and the market of mobile services in Germany for the period between 1990 and 2015.

Keywords: Economic Modelling, Long-Time Strategy, Mergers and Acquisitions, Simulation

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Authors: Seyed Sajjad Habibi

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The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of global financial crises and corporate financial crisis on tax evasion of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, panel data in the periods of financial crisis period (2007 to 2012) and without a financial crisis (2004, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2014, and 2015) was analyzed using multivariate linear regression. The results indicate a significant relationship between the corporate financial crisis (bankruptcy risk) and tax evasion in the global financial crisis period. The results also showed a significant relationship between the corporate bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period with no global financial crisis. A significant difference was found between the bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period of the global financial crisis and that with no financial crisis so that tax evasion increased in the financial crisis period.

Keywords: global financial crisis, corporate financial crisis, bankruptcy risk, tax evasion risk, emerging markets

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Authors: Scarlet Tabot Enanga Longsti

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Community-Based Health Insurance (CBHI) schemes have been proposed as a possible means to achieve affordable health care in low-and lower-middle-income countries. The existing evidence provides mixed results on the impact of CBHI schemes on healthcare utilisation and out -of-pocket payments (OOPP) for healthcare. Over 900 CBHI schemes have been implemented in underdeveloped countries, and these schemes have undergone different modifications over the years. Prior reviews have suggested that different designs of CBHI schemes may result in different outcomes. Objectives: This review sought to determine the interventions that affect the impact of CBHI schemes on OOPP and health service utilisation. Interventions in this study referred to any action or modification in the design of a CBHI scheme that affected the impact of the scheme on OOPP and/or healthcare utilization. Methods: Any CBHI study that was done in a lower middle-income country, that used an experimental design, that included OOPP or health care utilisation as outcome variables, and that was published in either English or French was included in this study. Studies were searched for in MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, EconLit, IBSS, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Global Index Medicus from July to August 2023. Bias was assessed using Joanna Brigs Institute tools for quality assessment for randomized control trials and quasi experimental studies. A narrative synthesis was done. Results: 12 studies were included in the review, with a total of 69 villages, 13,653 households, and 62,786 participants. Average premium collection was 4.8 USD/year. Most CBHI schemes had flat rates. The study revealed that a range of interventions impact OOPP and health care utilisation. Five categories of interventions were identified. The intervention with the highest impact on OOPP and utilisation was “Audit visits”. Next in line came external funds, training scheme workers, and engaging community leaders and village heads to advertise the scheme. Free healthcare led to a significant increase in utilisation of health services, a significant reduction in Catastrophic health expenditure, but an insignificant effect on OOPP among insured compared with uninsured. Conclusions: Community-Based Health Insurance could pave the way for Universal Health Care in low and middle-income countries. However, this can only be possible if careful thought is given to how schemes are designed. Due to the heterogeneity of studies and results on CBHI schemes, there is need for further research for more effective designs to be developed.

Keywords: community based health insurance, developing countries, health service utilisation, out of pocket payment

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Authors: Abu Umar Faruq Ahmad, Muhammad Ayub

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Tabarru` (unilateral gratuitous contribution) is thought to be the basic concept that distinguishes Takaful from conventional non-Sharīʿah compliant insurance. The Sharīʿah compliance of its current practice has been questioned in the premise that, a) it is a form of commutative contract; b) it is akin to the commercial corporate structure of insurance companies due to following the same marketing strategies, allocation to reserves, sharing of underwriting surplus by the companies one way or the other, providing loans to the Takaful funds, and resultantly absorbing the underwriting losses. The Sharīʿah scholars are of the view that the relationship between participants in Takaful should be in the form of commitment to donate, under which a contributor makes commitments himself to donate a sum of money for mutual help and cooperation on the condition that the balance, if any, should be returned to him. With the aim of finding solutions to the above mentioned concerns and other Sharīʿah related issues the study seeks to investigate whether the Takaful companies are functioning in accordance with the Islamic principles of brotherhood, solidarity, and cooperative risk sharing. Given that it discusses the cooperative model of Takaful to address the current and future Sharīʿah related and legal concerns. The study proposed an alternative model and considers it to best serve the objectives of Takaful which operates on the basis of ta`awun or mutual co-operation.

Keywords: hibah, musharakah ta`awuniyyah, Tabarru`, Takaful

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Authors: Asmaa M. Marzouk, Abdallah M. Elshaer

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Despite the well-recognized value of shopping as a revenue-generating resource, little effort was made to investigate what is the structure of tourists’ shopping behavior, which in turn, affect their travel experience. The purpose of this paper is to study the structure of tourists’ shopping process to better understand their shopping behavior by investigating factors that influence this activity other than hotels tyranny. This study specifically aims to propose a model incorporating those all variables. This empirical study investigates the shopping experience of international tourists using a questionnaire aimed to examine multinational samples selected from the tourist population visiting a specific destination in Egypt. This study highlights the various stakeholders that make tourists do shop independent of hotels. The results, therefore, demonstrate the relationship between the shopping process entities involved and configure the variables within the model in a way that provides a viable solution for visitors to avoid the tyranny of hotel facilities and amenities on the public markets.

Keywords: hotels’ amenities, shopping process, tourist behavior, tourist satisfaction

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Authors: Sergio Andres Rojas, Julian Benavides Franco, Juan Tomas Sayago

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An increasing amount of research demonstrates how market mood affects financial markets, but their primary goal is to demonstrate how Trump's tweets impacted US interest rate volatility. Following that lead, this work evaluates the effect that Trump's tweets had during his presidency on local and international stock markets, considering not just volatility but the direction of the movement. Three indexes for Trump's tweets were created relating his activity with movements in the S&P500 using natural language analysis and machine learning algorithms. The indexes consider Trump's tweet activity and the positive or negative market sentiment they might inspire. The first explores the relationship between tweets generating negative movements in the S&P500; the second explores positive movements, while the third explores the difference between up and down movements. A pseudo-investment strategy using the indexes produced statistically significant above-average abnormal returns. The findings also showed that the pseudo strategy generated a higher return in the local market if applied to intraday data. However, only a negative market sentiment caused this effect on daily data. These results suggest that the market reacted primarily to a negative idea reflected in the negative index. In the international market, it is not possible to identify a pervasive effect. A rolling window regression model was also performed. The result shows that the impact on the local and international markets is heterogeneous, time-changing, and differentiated for the market sentiment. However, the negative sentiment was more prone to have a significant correlation most of the time.

Keywords: market sentiment, Twitter market sentiment, machine learning, natural dialect analysis

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Authors: Slim Amami

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A model is developed to prevent the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a farmer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is mainly based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By a simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is deduced from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. Optimal premium is then deduced, and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect their harvest. The application to wheat production in the French Oise department illustrates the reliability of the present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost every agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.

Keywords: agriculture, database, meteorological factors, production model, optimal price

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Authors: J. Stejskal, P. Hajek

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The goal of this article is the analysis of knowledge transfer at the regional level of the Czech Republic. We show how goals of enterprises´ innovative activities are related to the rate of cooperation with different actors within regional innovative systems as well as in other world regions. The results show that the most important partners of enterprises are their suppliers and clients in most Czech regions. The cooperation rate of enterprises correlates significantly mainly with enterprises´ efforts to enter new markets and reduce labour costs per unit output. The meaning of this cooperation decreases with the increase of partner’s distance. Regarding the type of a cooperating partner, cooperation within an enterprise had to do with the increase of market share and decrease of labour costs. On the other hand, cooperation with clients had to do with efforts to replace outdated products or processes or enter new markets. We can pay less attention to the cooperation with government authorities and organizations. The reasons for marginalization of this cooperation should be submitted to further detailed investigation.

Keywords: knowledge, transfer, innovative process, Czech republic, region

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Authors: Josip Arneric, Blanka Skrabic Peric

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Forecasting of volatility, i.e. returns fluctuations, has been a topic of interest to portfolio managers, option traders and market makers in order to get higher profits or less risky positions. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most common used models are GARCH type models. As standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance, it is difficult the predict volatility using standard GARCH models. Due to practical limitations of these models different approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on Markov switching models. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate because they allow some part of the model to depend on the state of the economy. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility for selected emerging markets.

Keywords: emerging markets, Markov switching, GARCH model, transition probabilities

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Authors: Omogboyega Abe

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This paper examines the relationships between socio-economic inequalities of power, race, wealth engendered by corporate structure, and domination in postcolonial Africa. The paper further considers how land as an epitome of property and power for the locals paved the way for capitalist accumulation and control in the hands of transnational corporations. European colonization of Africa was contingent on settler colonialism, where properties, including land, were re-modified as extractive resources for primitive accumulation. In developing Africa's extractive resources, transnational corporations (TNCs) usurped states' structures and domination over native land. The usurpation/corporate capture that exists to date has led to remonstrations and arguably a counter-productive approach to development projects. In some communities, the mention of extractive companies triggers resentment. The paradigm of state capture and state autonomy is simply inadequate to either describe or resolve the play of forces or actors responsible for severe corporate-induced human rights violations in emerging markets. Moreover, even if the deadly working conditions are conceived as some regulatory failure, it is tough to tell whose failure. The analysis in this paper is that the complexity and ambiguity evidenced by the multiple regimes and political and economic forces shaping production, consumption, and distribution of socio-economic variables are not exceptional in emerging markets. Instead, the varied experience in developing countries provides a window for seeing what we face in understanding and theorizing the structure and operation of the global economic and regulatory order in general.

Keywords: colonial, emerging markets, business, human rights, corporation

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Authors: Gulnaz Erkomaishvili

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Introduction: The pandemic and the current economic crisis have created problems for entrepreneurship and, therefore for start-up entrepreneurs. The paper presents the challenges of start-up entrepreneurs in Georgia in the time of pandemic and the analysis of the state economic policy measures. Despite many problems, the study found that in 54.2% of start-ups surveyed under the pandemic, innovation opportunities were growing. It can be stated that the pandemic was a good opportunity to increase the innovative capacity of the enterprise. 52% of the surveyed start-up entrepreneurs managed to adapt to the current situation and increase the sale of their products/services through remote channels. As for the assessment of state support measures by start-up entrepreneurs, a large number of Georgian start-ups do not assess the measures implemented by the state positively. Methodology: The research process uses methods of analysis and synthesis, quantitative and qualitative, interview/survey, grouping, relative and average values, graphing, comparison, data analysis, and others. Main Findings: Studies have shown that for the start-up entrepreneurs, the main problem remains: inaccessible funding, workers' qualifications gap, inflation, taxes, regulation, political instability, inadequate provision of infrastructure, amount of taxes, and other factors. Conclusions: The state should take the following measures to support business start-ups: create an attractive environment for investment, availability of soft loans, creation of an insurance system, infrastructure development, increase the effectiveness of tax policy (simplicity of the tax system, clarity, optimal tax level ); promote export growth (develop strategy for opening up international markets, build up a broad marketing network, etc.).

Keywords: start-up entrepreneurs, startups, start-up entrepreneurs support programs, start-up entrepreneurs support economic policy

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Authors: Şule Turhan, Özlem Turan

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Permanence in the international markets for many global companies is about being known as having effective logistics which targets customer satisfaction management and lower costs. Under competitive conditions, the necessity of providing the products to customers quickly and on time for the companies which constantly aim to improve their profitability increased the strategic importance of the logistics concept. Food logistic is one of the most difficult areas in logistics. In the process from manufacturer to final consumer, quality and hygiene standards must be provided constantly. In food logistics, reliable and extensive service network has great importance and on time delivery is the target. Developing logistics industry provide the supply of foods in the country and the development of export markets more quickly and has an important role in providing added value to the country's economy. Turkey that creates a bridge between the east and the west is an attractive market for logistics companies. In this study, by examining both the place and the importance of logistics in Turkish food sector, recommendations will be made for the food industry.

Keywords: logistics, Turkish food industry, competition, food industry

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Authors: E. M. Mhlongo, E. Lutge

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In 2010, South Africa’s National Department of Health (NDoH) launched national primary health care (PHC) initiative to strengthen health promotion, disease prevention, and early disease detection. The strategy, called Re-engineering Primary Health Care (rPHC), aims to support a preventive and health-promoting community-based PHC model by using community-based outreach teams (known in South Africa as Ward-based Primary Health Care Outreach teams or WBPHCOTs). These teams provide health education, promote healthy behaviors, assess community health needs, manage minor health problems, and support linkages to health services and health facilities. Ward based primary health care outreach teams are supervised by a professional nurse who is the outreach team leader. In South Africa, the WBPHCOTs have been established, registered, and are reporting their activities in the District Health Information System (DHIS). This study explored and described the challenges faced by outreach team leaders in supporting and supervising the WBPHCOTs. Qualitative data were obtained through interviews conducted with the outreach team leaders at a sub-district level. Thematic analysis of data was done. Findings revealed some challenges faced by team leaders in day to day execution of their duties. Issues such as staff shortages, inadequate resources to carry out health promotion activities, and lack of co-operation from team members may undermine the capacity of team leaders to support and supervise the WBPHCOTs. Many community members are under the impression that the outreach team is responsible for bringing the clinic to the community while the outreach teams do not carry any medication/treatment with them when doing home visits. The study further highlights issues around the challenges of WBPHCOTs at a household level. In conclusion, the WBPHCOTs are an important component of National Health Insurance (NHI), and in order for NHI to be optimally implemented, the issues raised in this research should be addressed with some urgency.

Keywords: community health worker, national health insurance, primary health care, ward-based primary health care outreach teams

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Authors: Thomas Ruppert, Shana Jones, J. Scott Pippin

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State and federal government agencies within the United States have recently invested substantial resources into studies of future flood risk conditions associated with climate change and sea-level rise. A review of numerous case studies has uncovered several key themes that speak to an overall incoherence within current flood risk assessment procedures in the U.S. context. First, there are substantial local differences in the quality of available information about basic infrastructure, particularly with regard to local stormwater features and essential facilities that are fundamental components of effective flood hazard planning and mitigation. Second, there can be substantial mismatch between regulatory Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) as produced by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and other 'current condition' flood assessment approaches. This is of particular concern in areas where FIRMs already seem to underestimate extant flood risk, which can only be expected to become a greater concern if future FIRMs do not appropriately account for changing climate conditions. Moreover, while there are incentives within the NFIP’s Community Rating System (CRS) to develop enhanced assessments that include future flood risk projections from climate change, the incentive structures seem to have counterintuitive implications that would tend to promote moral hazard. In particular, a technical finding of higher future risk seems to make it easier for a community to qualify for flood insurance savings, with much of these prospective savings applied to individual properties that have the most physical risk of flooding. However, there is at least some case study evidence to indicate that recognition of these issues is prompting broader discussion about the need to move beyond FIRMs as a standalone local flood planning standard. The paper concludes with approaches for developing climate adaptation and flood resilience strategies in the U.S. that move away from the social welfare model being applied through NFIP and toward more of an informed risk approach that transfers much of the investment responsibility over to individual private property owners.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, flood risk, moral hazard, sea-level rise

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