Search results for: heavy-tailed distributions

Authors: Dino Carpentras, Paul J. Maher, Caoimhe O'Reilly, Michael Quayle

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Opinion dynamics is a sub-field of agent-based modeling that focuses on people’s opinions and their evolutions over time. Despite the rapid increase in the number of publications in this field, it is still not clear how to apply these models to real-world scenarios. Indeed, there is no agreement on how people update their opinion while interacting. Furthermore, it is not clear if different topics will show the same dynamics (e.g., more polarized topics may behave differently). These problems are mostly due to the lack of experimental validation of the models. Some previous studies started bridging this gap in the literature by directly measuring people’s opinions before and after the interaction. However, these experiments force people to express their opinion as a number instead of using natural language (and then, eventually, encoding it as numbers). This is not the way people normally interact, and it may strongly alter the measured dynamics. Another limitation of these studies is that they usually average all the topics together, without checking if different topics may show different dynamics. In our work, we collected data from 200 participants on 5 unpolarized topics. Participants expressed their opinions in natural language (“agree” or “disagree”). We also measured the certainty of their answer, expressed as a number between 1 and 10. However, this value was not shown to other participants to keep the interaction based on natural language. We then showed the opinion (and not the certainty) of another participant and, after a distraction task, we repeated the measurement. To make the data compatible with opinion dynamics models, we multiplied opinion and certainty to obtain a new parameter (here called “continuous opinion”) ranging from -10 to +10 (using agree=1 and disagree=-1). We firstly checked the 5 topics individually, finding that all of them behaved in a similar way despite having different initial opinions distributions. This suggested that the same model could be applied for different unpolarized topics. We also observed that people tend to maintain similar levels of certainty, even when they changed their opinion. This is a strong violation of what is suggested from common models, where people starting at, for example, +8, will first move towards 0 instead of directly jumping to -8. We also observed social influence, meaning that people exposed with “agree” were more likely to move to higher levels of continuous opinion, while people exposed with “disagree” were more likely to move to lower levels. However, we also observed that the effect of influence was smaller than the effect of random fluctuations. Also, this configuration is different from standard models, where noise, when present, is usually much smaller than the effect of social influence. Starting from this, we built an opinion dynamics model that explains more than 80% of data variance. This model was also able to show the natural conversion of polarization from unpolarized states. This experimental approach offers a new way to build models grounded on experimental data. Furthermore, the model offers new insight into the fundamental terms of opinion dynamics models.

Keywords: experimental validation, micro-dynamics rule, opinion dynamics, update rule

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Authors: Rafael do Amaral Teodoro, Leandro Augusto da Silva

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Originated from graphite, graphene is a two-dimensional (2D) material that promises to revolutionize technology in many different areas, such as energy, telecommunications, civil construction, aviation, textile, and medicine. This is possible because its structure, formed by carbon bonds, provides desirable optical, thermal, and mechanical characteristics that are interesting to multiple areas of the market. Thus, several research and development centers are studying different manufacturing methods and material applications of graphene, which are often compromised by the scarcity of more agile and accurate methodologies to characterize the material – that is to determine its composition, shape, size, and the number of layers and crystals. To engage in this search, this study proposes a computational methodology that applies deep learning to identify graphene oxide crystals in order to characterize samples by crystal sizes. To achieve this, a fully convolutional neural network called U-net has been trained to segment SEM graphene oxide images. The segmentation generated by the U-net is fine-tuned with a standard deviation technique by classes, which allows crystals to be distinguished with different labels through an object delimitation algorithm. As a next step, the characteristics of the position, area, perimeter, and lateral measures of each detected crystal are extracted from the images. This information generates a database with the dimensions of the crystals that compose the samples. Finally, graphs are automatically created showing the frequency distributions by area size and perimeter of the crystals. This methodological process resulted in a high capacity of segmentation of graphene oxide crystals, presenting accuracy and F-score equal to 95% and 94%, respectively, over the test set. Such performance demonstrates a high generalization capacity of the method in crystal segmentation, since its performance considers significant changes in image extraction quality. The measurement of non-overlapping crystals presented an average error of 6% for the different measurement metrics, thus suggesting that the model provides a high-performance measurement for non-overlapping segmentations. For overlapping crystals, however, a limitation of the model was identified. To overcome this limitation, it is important to ensure that the samples to be analyzed are properly prepared. This will minimize crystal overlap in the SEM image acquisition and guarantee a lower error in the measurements without greater efforts for data handling. All in all, the method developed is a time optimizer with a high measurement value, considering that it is capable of measuring hundreds of graphene oxide crystals in seconds, saving weeks of manual work.

Keywords: characterization, graphene oxide, nanomaterials, U-net, deep learning

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Authors: Patcharaporn Sakulpong, Wiriya Phokhwang

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Background: Banpunrug (Love Sharing House) established in 2013 provides a community-based palliative care for patients with cancer from 7 provinces in southern Thailand. These patients come to receive outpatient chemotherapy and radiotherapy at Suratthani Cancer Hospital. They are poor and uneducated; they need an accommodation during their 30-45 day course of therapy. Methods: A community-participatory action research (PAR) was employed to establish a model of palliative care for patients with cancer. The participants included health care providers, community, and patients and families. The PAR process includes problem identification and need assessment, community and team establishment, field survey, organization founding, model of care planning, action and inquiry (PDCA), outcome evaluation, and model distribution. Results: The model of care at Banpunrug involves the concepts of HHHS model, in that Banpunrug is a Home for patients; patients live in a house comfortable like in a Hotel resource; the patients are given care and living facilities similarly to those in a Hospital; the house is a School for patients to learn how to take care themselves, how to live well with cancer, and most importantly how to prepare themselves for a good death. The house is also a humanized care school for health care providers. Banpunrug’s philosophy of care is based on friendship therapy, social and spiritual support, community partnership, patient-family centeredness, Live & Love sharing house, and holistic and humanized care. With this philosophy, the house is managed as a home of the patients and everyone involved; everything is costless for all eligible patients and their family members; all facilities and living expense are donated from benevolent people, friends, and community. Everyone, including patients and family, has a sense of belonging to the house and there is no authority between health care providers and the patients in the house. The house is situated in a temple and a community and supported by many local nonprofit organizations and healthcare facilities such as a health promotion hospital at sub-disctrict level and Suratthani Cancer Hospital. Village health volunteers and multi-professional health care volunteers have contributed not only appropriate care, but also knowledge and experience to develop a distinguishing HHHS community-based palliative care model for patients with cancer. Since its opening the house has been a home for more than 400 patients and 300 family members. It is also a model for many national and international healthcare organizations and providers, who come to visit and learn about palliative care in and by community. Conclusions: The success of this palliative care model comes from community involvement, multi-professional volunteers and distributions, and concepts of HHHS model. Banpunrug promotes a consistent care across the cancer trajectory independent of prognosis in order to strengthen a full integration of palliative

Keywords: community-based palliative care, model, participatory action research, patients with cancer

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Authors: M. Qamarul Islam, Ergun Dogan, Mehmet Yazici

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There is a growing body of evidence that non-normal data is more prevalent in nature than the normal one. Examples can be quoted from, but not restricted to, the areas of Economics, Finance and Actuarial Science. The non-normality considered here is expressed in terms of fat-tailedness and asymmetry of the relevant distribution. In this study a skew t distribution that can be used to model a data that exhibit inherent non-normal behavior is considered. This distribution has tails fatter than a normal distribution and it also exhibits skewness. Although maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained by solving iteratively the likelihood equations that are non-linear in form, this can be problematic in terms of convergence and in many other respects as well. Therefore, it is preferred to use the method of modified maximum likelihood in which the likelihood estimates are derived by expressing the intractable non-linear likelihood equations in terms of standardized ordered variates and replacing the intractable terms by their linear approximations obtained from the first two terms of a Taylor series expansion about the quantiles of the distribution. These estimates, called modified maximum likelihood estimates, are obtained in closed form. Hence, they are easy to compute and to manipulate analytically. In fact the modified maximum likelihood estimates are equivalent to maximum likelihood estimates, asymptotically. Even in small samples the modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be approximately the same as maximum likelihood estimates that are obtained iteratively. It is shown in this study that the modified maximum likelihood estimates are not only unbiased but substantially more efficient than the commonly used moment estimates or the least square estimates that are known to be biased and inefficient in such cases. Furthermore, in conventional regression analysis, it is assumed that the error terms are distributed normally and, hence, the well-known least square method is considered to be a suitable and preferred method for making the relevant statistical inferences. However, a number of empirical researches have shown that non-normal errors are more prevalent. Even transforming and/or filtering techniques may not produce normally distributed residuals. Here, a study is done for multiple linear regression models with random error having non-normal pattern. Through an extensive simulation it is shown that the modified maximum likelihood estimates of regression parameters are plausibly robust to the distributional assumptions and to various data anomalies as compared to the widely used least square estimates. Relevant tests of hypothesis are developed and are explored for desirable properties in terms of their size and power. The tests based upon modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be substantially more powerful than the tests based upon least square estimates. Several examples are provided from the areas of Economics and Finance where such distributions are interpretable in terms of efficient market hypothesis with respect to asset pricing, portfolio selection, risk measurement and capital allocation, etc.

Keywords: least square estimates, linear regression, maximum likelihood estimates, modified maximum likelihood method, non-normality, robustness

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Authors: Suteera Pradubwong, Pattama Surit, Sumalee Pongpagatip, Tharinee Pethchara, Bowornsilp Chowchuen

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Background: Cleft lip and palate (CLP) is a congenital anomaly of the lip and palate that is caused by several factors. It was found in approximately one per 500 to 550 live births depending on nationality and socioeconomic status. The Tawanchai Center and out-patients surgical room of Srinagarind Hospital are responsible for providing care to patients with CLP (starting from birth to adolescent) and their caregivers. From the observations and interviews with nurses working in these units, they reported that both patients and their caregivers confronted many problems which affected their physical and mental health. Based on the Soukup’s model (2000), the researchers used evidence triggers from clinical practice (practice triggers) and related literature (knowledge triggers) to investigate the problems. Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the problems of care for patients with CLP in the Tawanchai Center and out-patient surgical room of Srinagarind Hospital. Material and Method: The descriptive method was used in this study. For practice triggers, the researchers obtained the data from medical records of ten patients with CLP and from interviewing two patients with CLP, eight caregivers, two nurses, and two assistant workers. Instruments for the interview consisted of a demographic data form and a semi-structured questionnaire. For knowledge triggers, the researchers used a literature search. The data from both practice and knowledge triggers were collected between February and May 2016. The quantitative data were analyzed through frequency and percentage distributions, and the qualitative data were analyzed through a content analysis. Results: The problems of care gained from practice and knowledge triggers were consistent and were identified as holistic issues, including 1) insufficient feeding, 2) risks of respiratory tract infections and physical disorders, 3) psychological problems, such as anxiety, stress, and distress, 4) socioeconomic problems, such as stigmatization, isolation, and loss of income, 5)spiritual problems, such as low self-esteem and low quality of life, 6) school absence and learning limitation, 7) lack of knowledge about CLP and its treatments, 8) misunderstanding towards roles among the multidisciplinary team, 9) no available services, and 10) shortage of healthcare professionals, especially speech-language pathologists (SLPs). Conclusion: From evidence-triggers, the problems of care affect the patients and their caregivers holistically. Integrated long-term care by the multidisciplinary team is needed for children with CLP starting from birth to adolescent. Nurses should provide effective care to these patients and their caregivers by using a holistic approach and working collaboratively with other healthcare providers in the multidisciplinary team.

Keywords: evidence-triggers, cleft lip, cleft palate, problems of care

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Authors: Lexi Li

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This study aims to contribute to the field of how computer technology can be exploited to enhance EFL textbook design. Specifically, the study demonstrates how computerized native and learner corpora can be used to enhance modal verb treatment in EFL textbooks. The linguistic focus is will, would, can, could, may, might, shall, should, must. The native corpus is the spoken component of BNC2014 (hereafter BNCS2014). The spoken part is chosen because the pedagogical purpose of the textbooks is communication-oriented. Using the standard query option of CQPweb, 5% of each of the nine modals was sampled from BNCS2014. The learner corpus is the POS-tagged Ten-thousand English Compositions of Chinese Learners (TECCL). All the essays under the “secondary school” section were selected. A series of five secondary coursebooks comprise the textbook corpus. All the data in both the learner and the textbook corpora are retrieved through the concordance functions of WordSmith Tools (version, 5.0). Data analysis was divided into two parts. The first part compared the patterns of modal verbs in the textbook corpus and BNC2014 with respect to distributional features, semantic functions, and co-occurring constructions to examine whether the textbooks reflect the authentic use of English. Secondly, the learner corpus was compared with the textbook corpus in terms of the use (distributional features, semantic functions, and co-occurring constructions) in order to examine the degree of influence of the textbook on learners’ use of modal verbs. Moreover, the learner corpus was analyzed for the misuse (syntactic errors, e.g., she can sings*.) of the nine modal verbs to uncover potential difficulties that confront learners. The results indicate discrepancies between the textbook presentation of modal verbs and authentic modal use in natural discourse in terms of distributions of frequencies, semantic functions, and co-occurring structures. Furthermore, there are consistent patterns of use between the learner corpus and the textbook corpus with respect to the three above-mentioned aspects, except could, will and must, partially confirming the correlation between the frequency effects and L2 grammar acquisition. Further analysis reveals that the exceptions are caused by both positive and negative L1 transfer, indicating that the frequency effects can be intercepted by L1 interference. Besides, error analysis revealed that could, would, should and must are the most difficult for Chinese learners due to both inter-linguistic and intra-linguistic interference. The discrepancies between the textbook corpus and the native corpus point to a need to adjust the presentation of modal verbs in the textbooks in terms of frequencies, different meanings, and verb-phrase structures. Along with the adjustment of modal verb treatment based on authentic use, it is important for textbook writers to take into consideration the L1 interference as well as learners’ difficulties in their use of modal verbs. The present study is a methodological showcase of the combination both native and learner corpora in the enhancement of EFL textbook language authenticity and appropriateness for learners.

Keywords: EFL textbooks, learner corpus, modal verbs, native corpus

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Authors: Andrey A. Lipovskii, Alexey V. Redkov, Vyacheslav V. Rusan, Dmitry K. Tagantsev, Valentina V. Zhurikhina

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The presented research is related to the development of recently proposed technique of the formation of composite materials, like optical glass-ceramics, with predetermined structure and properties of the crystalline component. The technique is based on the control of the size and concentration of the crystalline grains using the phenomenon of glass-ceramics decrystallization (vitrification) induced by ion-exchange. This phenomenon was discovered and explained in the beginning of the 2000s, while related theoretical description was given in 2016 only. In general, the developed theory enables one to model the process and optimize the conditions of ion-exchange processing of glass-ceramics, which provide given properties of crystalline component, in particular, profile of the average size of the crystalline grains. The optimization is possible if one knows two dimensionless parameters of the theoretical model. One of them (β) is the value which is directly related to the solubility of crystalline component of the glass-ceramics in the glass matrix, and another (γ) is equal to the ratio of characteristic times of ion-exchange diffusion and crystalline grain dissolution. The presented study is dedicated to the development of experimental technique and simulation which allow determining these parameters. It is shown that these parameters can be deduced from the data on the space distributions of diffusant concentrations and average size of crystalline grains in the glass-ceramics samples subjected to ion-exchange treatment. Measurements at least at two temperatures and two processing times at each temperature are necessary. The composite material used was a silica-based glass-ceramics with crystalline grains of Li2OSiO2. Cubical samples of the glass-ceramics (6x6x6 mm3) underwent the ion exchange process in NaNO3 salt melt at 520 oC (for 16 and 48 h), 540 oC (for 8 and 24 h), 560 oC (for 4 and 12 h), and 580 oC (for 2 and 8 h). The ion exchange processing resulted in the glass-ceramics vitrification in the subsurface layers where ion-exchange diffusion took place. Slabs about 1 mm thick were cut from the central part of the samples and their big facets were polished. These slabs were used to find profiles of diffusant concentrations and average size of the crystalline grains. The concentration profiles were determined from refractive index profiles measured with Max-Zender interferometer, and profiles of the average size of the crystalline grains were determined with micro-Raman spectroscopy. Numerical simulation were based on the developed theoretical model of the glass-ceramics decrystallization induced by ion exchange. The simulation of the processes was carried out for different values of β and γ parameters under all above-mentioned ion exchange conditions. As a result, the temperature dependences of the parameters, which provided a reliable coincidence of the simulation and experimental data, were found. This ensured the adequate modeling of the process of the glass-ceramics decrystallization in 520-580 oC temperature interval. Developed approach provides a powerful tool for fine tuning of the glass-ceramics structure, namely, concentration and average size of crystalline grains.

Keywords: diffusion, glass-ceramics, ion exchange, vitrification

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Authors: Alessandra Pardu, Elena Curti, Marco Caredda, Alessio Dedola, Margherita Addis, Massimo Pes, Antonio Pirisi, Tonina Roggio, Sergio Uzzau, Roberto Anedda

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Some of the artisanal cheeses products of European Countries certificated as PDO (Protected Designation of Origin) are made from raw milk. To recognise potential frauds (e.g. pasteurisation or thermisation of milk aimed at raw milk cheese production), the alkaline phosphatase (ALP) assay is currently applied only for pasteurisation, although it is known to have notable limitations for the validation of ALP enzymatic state in nonbovine milk. It is known that frauds considerably impact on customers and certificating institutions, sometimes resulting in a damage of the product image and potential economic losses for cheesemaking producers. Robust, validated, and univocal analytical methods are therefore needed to allow Food Control and Security Organisms, to recognise a potential fraud. In an attempt to develop a new reliable method to overcome this issue, Time-Domain Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (TD-NMR) spectroscopy has been applied in the described work. Daily fresh milk was analysed raw (680.00 µL in each 10-mm NMR glass tube) at least in triplicate. Thermally treated samples were also produced, by putting each NMR tube of fresh raw milk in water pre-heated at temperatures from 68°C up to 72°C and for up to 3 min, with continuous agitation, and quench-cooled to 25°C in a water and ice solution. Raw and thermally treated samples were analysed in terms of 1H T2 transverse relaxation times with a CPMG sequence (Recycle Delay: 6 s, interpulse spacing: 0.05 ms, 8000 data points) and quasi-continuous distributions of T2 relaxation times were obtained by CONTIN analysis. In line with previous data collected by high field NMR techniques, a decrease in the spin-spin relaxation constant T2 of the predominant 1H population was detected in heat-treated milk as compared to raw milk. The decrease of T2 parameter is consistent with changes in chemical exchange and diffusive phenomena, likely associated to changes in milk protein (i.e. whey proteins and casein) arrangement promoted by heat treatment. Furthermore, experimental data suggest that molecular alterations are strictly dependent on the specific heat treatment conditions (temperature/time). Such molecular variations in milk, which are likely transferred to cheese during cheesemaking, highlight the possibility to extend the TD-NMR technique directly on cheese to develop a method for assessing a fraud related to the use of a milk thermal treatment in PDO raw milk cheese. Results suggest that TDNMR assays might pave a new way to the detailed characterisation of heat treatments of milk.

Keywords: cheese fraud, milk, pasteurisation, TD-NMR

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Authors: M. Vezir Kahraman, Emre Basturk

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Energy storage technology offers new ways to meet the demand to obtain efficient and reliable energy storage materials. Thermal energy storage systems provide the potential to acquire energy savings, which in return decrease the environmental impact related to energy usage. For this purpose, phase change materials (PCMs) that work as 'latent heat storage units' which can store or release large amounts of energy are preferred. Phase change materials (PCMs) are being utilized to absorb, collect and discharge thermal energy during the cycle of melting and freezing, converting from one phase to another. Phase Change Materials (PCMs) can generally be arranged into three classes: organic materials, salt hydrates and eutectics. Many kinds of organic and inorganic PCMs and their blends have been examined as latent heat storage materials. PCMs have found different application areas such as solar energy storage and transfer, HVAC (Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning) systems, thermal comfort in vehicles, passive cooling, temperature controlled distributions, industrial waste heat recovery, under floor heating systems and modified fabrics in textiles. Ultraviolet (UV)-curing technology has many advantages, which made it applicable in many different fields. Low energy consumption, high speed, room-temperature operation, low processing costs, high chemical stability, and being environmental friendly are some of its main benefits. UV-curing technique has many applications. One of the many advantages of UV-cured PCMs is that they prevent the interior PCMs from leaking. Shape-stabilized PCM is prepared by blending the PCM with a supporting material, usually polymers. In our study, this problem is minimized by coating the fatty alcohols with a photo-cross-linked thiol-ene based polymeric system. Leakage is minimized because photo-cross-linked polymer acts a matrix. The aim of this study is to introduce a novel thiol-ene based shape-stabilized PCM. Photo-crosslinked thiol-ene based polymers containing fatty alcohols were prepared and characterized for the purpose of phase change materials (PCMs). Different types of fatty alcohols were used in order to investigate their properties as shape-stable PCMs. The structure of the PCMs was confirmed by ATR-FTIR techniques. The phase transition behaviors, thermal stability of the prepared photo-crosslinked PCMs were investigated by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). This work was supported by Marmara University, Commission of Scientific Research Project.

Keywords: differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), Polymeric phase change material, thermal energy storage, UV-curing

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Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

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Groundwater is a vital water resource in many areas in the world, particularly in the Middle-East region where the water resources become scarce and depleting. Sustainable management and planning of the groundwater resources become essential and urgent given the impact of the global climate change. In the recent years, numerical models have been widely used to predict the flow pattern and assess the water resources security, as well as the groundwater quality affected by the contaminants transported. In this study, MODFLOW is used to study the current status of groundwater resources and the risk of water resource security in the region centred at Al-Najaf City, which is located in the mid-west of Iraq and adjacent to the Euphrates River. In this study, a conceptual model is built using the geologic and hydrogeologic collected for the region, together with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data obtained from the "Global Land Cover Facility" (GLCF) and "United State Geological Survey" (USGS) for the study area. The computer model is also implemented with the distributions of 69 wells in the area with the steady pro-defined hydraulic head along its boundaries. The model is then applied with the recharge rate (from precipitation) of 7.55 mm/year, given from the analysis of the field data in the study area for the period of 1980-2014. The hydraulic conductivity from the measurements at the locations of wells is interpolated for model use. The model is calibrated with the measured hydraulic heads at the locations of 50 of 69 wells in the domain and results show a good agreement. The standard-error-of-estimate (SEE), root-mean-square errors (RMSE), Normalized RMSE and correlation coefficient are 0.297 m, 2.087 m, 6.899% and 0.971 respectively. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out, and it is found that the model is sensitive to recharge, particularly when the rate is greater than (15mm/year). Hydraulic conductivity is found to be another parameter which can affect the results significantly, therefore it requires high quality field data. The results show that there is a general flow pattern from the west to east of the study area, which agrees well with the observations and the gradient of the ground surface. It is found that with the current operational pumping rates of the wells in the area, a dry area is resulted in Al-Najaf City due to the large quantity of groundwater withdrawn. The computed water balance with the current operational pumping quantity shows that the Euphrates River supplies water into the groundwater of approximately 11759 m3/day, instead of gaining water of 11178 m3/day from the groundwater if no pumping from the wells. It is expected that the results obtained from the study can provide important information for the sustainable and effective planning and management of the regional groundwater resources for Al-Najaf City.

Keywords: Al-Najaf city, conceptual modelling, groundwater, unconfined aquifer, visual MODFLOW

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Authors: Klaus Peter Scherer, Daniel Knöll, Constantin Rieder

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Problem and Purpose: Intelligent systems are available and helpful to support the human being decision process, especially when complex surgical eye interventions are necessary and must be performed. Normally, such a decision support system consists of a knowledge-based module, which is responsible for the real assistance power, given by an explanation and logical reasoning processes. The interview based acquisition and generation of the complex knowledge itself is very crucial, because there are different correlations between the complex parameters. So, in this project (semi)automated self-learning methods are researched and developed for an enhancement of the quality of such a decision support system. Methods: For ophthalmic data sets of real patients in a hospital, advanced data mining procedures seem to be very helpful. Especially subgroup analysis methods are developed, extended and used to analyze and find out the correlations and conditional dependencies between the structured patient data. After finding causal dependencies, a ranking must be performed for the generation of rule-based representations. For this, anonymous patient data are transformed into a special machine language format. The imported data are used as input for algorithms of conditioned probability methods to calculate the parameter distributions concerning a special given goal parameter. Results: In the field of knowledge discovery advanced methods and applications could be performed to produce operation and patient related correlations. So, new knowledge was generated by finding causal relations between the operational equipment, the medical instances and patient specific history by a dependency ranking process. After transformation in association rules logically based representations were available for the clinical experts to evaluate the new knowledge. The structured data sets take account of about 80 parameters as special characteristic features per patient. For different extended patient groups (100, 300, 500), as well one target value as well multi-target values were set for the subgroup analysis. So the newly generated hypotheses could be interpreted regarding the dependency or independency of patient number. Conclusions: The aim and the advantage of such a semi-automatically self-learning process are the extensions of the knowledge base by finding new parameter correlations. The discovered knowledge is transformed into association rules and serves as rule-based representation of the knowledge in the knowledge base. Even more, than one goal parameter of interest can be considered by the semi-automated learning process. With ranking procedures, the most strong premises and also conjunctive associated conditions can be found to conclude the interested goal parameter. So the knowledge, hidden in structured tables or lists can be extracted as rule-based representation. This is a real assistance power for the communication with the clinical experts.

Keywords: an expert system, knowledge-based support, ophthalmic decision support, self-learning methods

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Authors: Jacqueline Y. Thompson, Sam Watson, Lee Middleton, Karla Hemming

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Introduction: The odds ratio (estimated via logistic regression) is a well-established and common approach for estimating covariate-adjusted binary treatment effects when comparing a treatment and control group with dichotomous outcomes. Its popularity is primarily because of its stability and robustness to model misspecification. However, the situation is different for the relative risk and risk difference, which are arguably easier to interpret and better suited to specific designs such as non-inferiority studies. So far, there is no equivalent, widely acceptable approach to estimate an adjusted relative risk and risk difference when conducting clinical trials. This is partly due to the lack of a comprehensive evaluation of available candidate methods. Methods/Approach: A simulation study is designed to evaluate the performance of relevant candidate methods to estimate relative risks to represent conditional and marginal estimation approaches. We consider the log-binomial, generalised linear models (GLM) with iteratively weighted least-squares (IWLS) and model-based standard errors (SE); log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and model-based SEs; log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and permutation tests; modified-Poisson GLM IWLS and robust SEs; log-binomial generalised estimation equations (GEE) and robust SEs; marginal standardisation and delta method SEs; and marginal standardisation and permutation test SEs. Independent and identically distributed datasets are simulated from a randomised controlled trial to evaluate these candidate methods. Simulations are replicated 10000 times for each scenario across all possible combinations of sample sizes (200, 1000, and 5000), outcomes (10%, 50%, and 80%), and covariates (ranging from -0.05 to 0.7) representing weak, moderate or strong relationships. Treatment effects (ranging from 0, -0.5, 1; on the log-scale) will consider null (H0) and alternative (H1) hypotheses to evaluate coverage and power in realistic scenarios. Performance measures (bias, mean square error (MSE), relative efficiency, and convergence rates) are evaluated across scenarios covering a range of sample sizes, event rates, covariate prognostic strength, and model misspecifications. Potential Results, Relevance & Impact: There are several methods for estimating unadjusted and adjusted relative risks. However, it is unclear which method(s) is the most efficient, preserves type-I error rate, is robust to model misspecification, or is the most powerful when adjusting for non-prognostic and prognostic covariates. GEE estimations may be biased when the outcome distributions are not from marginal binary data. Also, it seems that marginal standardisation and convex optimisation may perform better than GLM IWLS log-binomial.

Keywords: binary outcomes, statistical methods, clinical trials, simulation study

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Authors: Peter Modregger, Özgül Öztürk

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Glass fabric reinforced thermoplastic (GFRT) are composite materials, which combine low weight and resilient mechanical properties rendering them especially suitable for automobile construction. However, defects in the glass fabric as well as in the polymer matrix can occur during manufacturing, which may compromise component lifetime or even safety. One type of these defects is local fiber shifts, which can be difficult to detect. Recently, we have experimentally demonstrated the reliable detection of local fiber shifts by X-ray scattering based on the edge-illumination (EI) principle. EI constitutes a novel X-ray imaging technique that utilizes two slit masks, one in front of the sample and one in front of the detector, in order to simultaneously provide absorption, phase, and scattering contrast. The principle of contrast formation is as follows. The incident X-ray beam is split into smaller beamlets by the sample mask, resulting in small beamlets. These are distorted by the interaction with the sample, and the distortions are scaled up by the detector masks, rendering them visible to a pixelated detector. In the experiment, the sample mask is laterally scanned, resulting in Gaussian-like intensity distributions in each pixel. The area under the curves represents absorption, the peak offset refraction, and the width of the curve represents the scattering occurring in the sample. Here, scattering is caused by the numerous glass fiber/polymer matrix interfaces. In our recent publication, we have shown that the standard deviation of the absorption and scattering values over a selected field of view can be used to distinguish between intact samples and samples with local fiber shift defects. The quantification of defect detection performance was done by using p-values (p=0.002 for absorption and p=0.009 for scattering) and contrast-to-noise ratios (CNR=3.0 for absorption and CNR=2.1 for scattering) between the two groups of samples. This was further improved for the scattering contrast to p=0.0004 and CNR=4.2 by utilizing a harmonic decomposition analysis of the images. Thus, we concluded that local fiber shifts can be reliably detected by the X-ray scattering contrasts provided by EI. However, a potential application in, for example, production monitoring requires fast data acquisition times. For the results above, the scanning of the sample masks was performed over 50 individual steps, which resulted in long total scan times. In this paper, we will demonstrate that reliable detection of local fiber shift defects is also possible by using single images, which implies a speed up of total scan time by a factor of 50. Additional performance improvements will also be discussed, which opens the possibility for real-time acquisition. This contributes a vital step for the translation of EI to industrial applications for a wide variety of materials consisting of numerous interfaces on the micrometer scale.

Keywords: defects in composites, X-ray scattering, local fiber shifts, X-ray edge Illumination

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Authors: Nidhi Prabha

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Transportation as a sector is one of the most significant infrastructural elements of the ‘urban.' The distinctness of an urban life in a city is marked by the dynamic movements that it enables within the city-space. Therefore it is important to study the public-transport systems that enable and foster mobility which characterizes the urban. It is also crucial to underscore the way one is examining the urban transport systems - either as an infrastructural unit in a strict physical-structural sense or as a structural unit which acts as a prism refracting multiple experiences depending on the location of the ‘commuter.' In the proposed paper, the attempt is to uncover and investigate the assumption of the neuter-commuter by looking at urban transportation in the secondary sense i.e. as a structural unit which is experienced differently by different kinds of commuters, thus making transportation deeply distributed with various social structures and locations like class or gender which map onto the transport systems. To this end, the public-transit systems operating in Urban Delhi i.e. the Delhi Metros and the Delhi Transport Corporation run public-buses are looked at as case studies. The study is premised on the knowledge and data gained from both primary and secondary sources. Primary sources include data and knowledge collected from fieldwork, the methodology for which has ranged from adopting ‘mixed-methods’ which is ‘Qualitative-then-Quantitative’ as well as borrowing ethnographic techniques. Apart from fieldwork, other primary sources looked at including Annual Reports and policy documents of the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) and the Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC), Union and Delhi budgets, Economic Survey of Delhi, press releases, etc. Secondary sources include the vast array of literature available on the critical nodes that inform the research like gender, transport geographies, urban-space, etc. The study indicates a deeply-distributed urban transport system wherein the various social-structural locations or different kinds of commuters map onto the way these different commuters experience mobility or movement within the city space. Mobility or movement, therefore, becomes gendered or has class-based ramifications. The neuter-commuter assumption is thus challenged. Such an understanding enables us to challenge the anonymity which the ‘urban’ otherwise claims it provides over the rural. The rural is opposed to the urban wherein urban ushers a modern way of life, breaking ties of traditional social identities. A careful study of the transport systems through the traveling patterns and choices of the commuters, however, indicate that this does not hold true as even the same ‘public-space’ of the transport systems allocates different places to different kinds of commuters. The central argument made though the research done is therefore that infrastructure like urban-transport-systems has to be studied and examined as seen beyond just a physical structure. The various experiences of daily mobility of different kinds of commuters have to be taken into account in order to design and plan more inclusive transport systems.

Keywords: gender, infrastructure, mobility, urban-transport-systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: Roberto M. G. Velásquez, Jonas R. Gazoli, Nelson Ponce Jr, Valério L. Borges, Alessandro Sete, Fernanda M. C. Tomé, Julian D. Hunt, Heitor C. Lira, Cristiano L. de Souza, Fabio T. Bindemann, Wilmar Wounnsoscky

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Nowadays, society is working toward reducing energy losses and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as seeking clean energy sources, as a result of the constant increase in energy demand and emissions. Energy loss occurs in the gas pressure reduction stations at the delivery points in natural gas distribution systems (city gates). Installing pressure reduction turbines (PRT) parallel to the static reduction valves at the city gates enhances the energy efficiency of the system by recovering the enthalpy of the pressurized natural gas, obtaining in the pressure-lowering process shaft work and generating electrical power. Currently, the Brazilian natural gas transportation network has 9,409 km in extension, while the system has 16 national and 3 international natural gas processing plants, including more than 143 delivery points to final consumers. Thus, the potential of installing PRT in Brazil is 66 MW of power, which could yearly avoid the emission of 235,800 tons of CO2 and generate 333 GWh/year of electricity. On the other hand, an economic viability analysis of these energy efficiency projects is commonly carried out based on estimates of the project's cash flow obtained from several variables forecast. Usually, the cash flow analysis is performed using representative values of these variables, obtaining a deterministic set of financial indicators associated with the project. However, in most cases, these variables cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy, resulting in the need to consider, to a greater or lesser degree, the risk associated with the calculated financial return. This paper presents an approach applied to the technical-economic viability analysis of PRTs projects that explicitly considers the uncertainties associated with the input parameters for the financial model, such as gas pressure at the delivery point, amount of energy generated by TRP, the future price of energy, among others, using sensitivity analysis techniques, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo methods. In the latter case, estimates of several financial risk indicators, as well as their empirical probability distributions, can be obtained. This is a methodology for the financial risk analysis of PRT projects. The results of this paper allow a more accurate assessment of the potential PRT project's financial feasibility in Brazil. This methodology will be tested at the Cuiabá thermoelectric plant, located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and can be applied to study the potential in other countries.

Keywords: pressure reduction turbine, natural gas pressure drop station, energy efficiency, electricity generation, monte carlo methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 77

Authors: Md. Hafezur Rahaman, Mohd. Maniruzzaman, Md. Shadiqul Islam, Md. Masud Rana

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With the growth of environmental awareness, enormous researches are running to develop the next generation materials based on sustainability, eco-competence, and green chemistry to preserve and protect the environment. Due to biodegradability and biocompatibility, poly (L-lactic acid) (PLLA) has a great interest in ecological and medical applications. Also, cellulose is one of the most abundant biodegradable, renewable polymers found in nature. It has several advantages such as low cost, high mechanical strength, biodegradability and so on. Recently, an immense deal of attention has been paid for the scientific and technological development of α-cellulose based composite material. PLLA could be used for grafting of cellulose to improve the compatibility prior to the composite preparation. Here it is quite difficult to form a bond between lower hydrophilic molecules like PLLA and α-cellulose. Dimmers and oligomers can easily be grafted onto the surface of the cellulose by ring opening or polycondensation method due to their low molecular weight. In this research, α-cellulose extracted from jute fiber is grafted with oligo(D-lactic acid) (ODLA) via graft polycondensation reaction in presence of para-toluene sulphonic acid and potassium persulphate in toluene at 130°C for 9 hours under 380 mmHg. Here ODLA is synthesized by ring opening polymerization of D-lactides in the presence of stannous octoate (0.03 wt% of lactide) and D-lactic acids at 140°C for 10 hours. Composites of PLLA with ODLA grafted α-cellulose are prepared by solution mixing and film casting method. Confirmation of grafting was carried out through FTIR spectroscopy and SEM analysis. A strongest carbonyl peak of FTIR spectroscopy at 1728 cm⁻¹ of ODLA grafted α-cellulose confirms the grafting of ODLA onto α-cellulose which is absent in α-cellulose. It is also observed from SEM photographs that there are some white areas (spot) on ODLA grafted α-cellulose as compared to α-cellulose may indicate the grafting of ODLA and consistent with FTIR results. Analysis of the composites is carried out by FTIR, SEM, WAXD and thermal gravimetric analyzer. Most of the FTIR characteristic absorption peak of the composites shifted to higher wave number with increasing peak area may provide a confirmation that PLLA and grafted cellulose have better compatibility in composites via intermolecular hydrogen bonding and this supports previously published results. Grafted α-cellulose distributions in composites are uniform which is observed by SEM analysis. WAXD studied show that only homo-crystalline structures of PLLA present in the composites. Thermal stability of the composites is enhanced with increasing the percentages of ODLA grafted α-cellulose in composites. As a consequence, the resultant composites have a resistance toward the thermal degradation. The effects of length of the grafted chain and biodegradability of the composites will be studied in further research.

Keywords: α-cellulose, composite, graft polycondensation, oligo(D-lactic acid), poly(L-lactic acid)

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Merve Uzuner Sahin, Kumru D. Atalay, Berna Dengiz

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In today’s competitive market, there are many alternative products that can be used in similar manner and purpose. Therefore, the utility of the product is an important issue for the preferability of the brand. This utility could be measured in terms of its functionality, durability, reliability. These all are affected by the system capabilities. Reliability is an important system design criteria for the manufacturers to be able to have high availability. Availability is the probability that a system (or a component) is operating properly to its function at a specific point in time or a specific period of times. System availability provides valuable input to estimate the production rate for the company to realize the production plan. When considering only the corrective maintenance downtime of the system, mean time between failure (MTBF) and mean time to repair (MTTR) are used to obtain system availability. Also, the MTBF and MTTR values are important measures to improve system performance by adopting suitable maintenance strategies for reliability engineers and practitioners working in a system. Failure and repair time probability distributions of each component in the system should be known for the conventional availability analysis. However, generally, companies do not have statistics or quality control departments to store such a large amount of data. Real events or situations are defined deterministically instead of using stochastic data for the complete description of real systems. A fuzzy set is an alternative theory which is used to analyze the uncertainty and vagueness in real systems. The aim of this study is to present a novel approach to compute system availability using representation of MTBF and MTTR in fuzzy numbers. Based on the experience in the system, it is decided to choose 3 different spread of MTBF and MTTR such as 15%, 20% and 25% to obtain lower and upper limits of the fuzzy numbers. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed method is the first application that is used fuzzy MTBF and fuzzy MTTR for fuzzy system availability estimation. This method is easy to apply in any repairable production system by practitioners working in industry. It is provided that the reliability engineers/managers/practitioners could analyze the system performance in a more consistent and logical manner based on fuzzy availability. This paper presents a real case study of a repairable multi-stage production line in lead-acid battery production factory in Turkey. The following is focusing on the considered wet-charging battery process which has a higher production level than the other types of battery. In this system, system components could exist only in two states, working or failed, and it is assumed that when a component in the system fails, it becomes as good as new after repair. Instead of classical methods, using fuzzy set theory and obtaining intervals for these measures would be very useful for system managers, practitioners to analyze system qualifications to find better results for their working conditions. Thus, much more detailed information about system characteristics is obtained.

Keywords: availability analysis, battery production system, fuzzy sets, triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs)

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Andrea Cretu, Calin Cadar, Maria Miclaus, Lucian Barbu-Tudoran, Siegfried Stapf, Ioan Ardelean

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Additives and mineral admixtures have become an integral part of cement-based materials. It is common practice to add silica fume to cement based mixes in order to produce high-performance concrete. There is still a lack of scientific understanding regarding the effects that silica fume has on the microstructure of hydrated cement paste. The aim of the current study is to develop high-performance materials with low permeability and high resistance to flexural stress using silica fume and an organosilane. Organosilane bonds with cement grains and silica fume, influencing both the workability and the final properties of the mix, especially the pore size distributions and pore connectivity. Silica fume is a known pozzolanic agent which reacts with the calcium hydroxide in hydrated cement paste, producing more C-S-H and improving the mechanical properties of the mix. It is believed that particles of silica fume act as capillary pore fillers and nucleation centers for C-S-H and other hydration products. In order to be able to design cement-based materials with added silica fume and organosilane, it is necessary first to understand the formation of the porous network during hydration and to observe the distribution of pores and their connectivity. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) methods in low-fields are non-destructive and allow the study of cement-based materials from the standpoint of their porous structure. Other methods, such as XRD and SEM-EDS, help create a comprehensive picture of the samples, along with the classic mechanical tests (compressive and flexural strength measurements). The transverse relaxation time (T₂) was measured during the hydration of 16 samples prepared with two water/cement ratios (0.3 and 0.4) and different concentrations or organosilane (APTES, up to 2% by mass of cement) and silica fume (up to 6%). After their hydration, the pore size distribution was assessed using the same NMR approach on the samples filled with cyclohexane. The SEM-EDS and XRD measurements were applied on pieces and powders prepared from the samples that were used in mechanical testing, which were kept under water for 28 days. Adding silica fume does not influence the hydration dynamics of cement paste, while the addition of organosilane extends the dormancy stage up to 10 hours. The size distribution of the capillary pores is not influenced by the addition of silica fume or organosilane, while the connectivity of capillary pores is decreased only when there is organosilane in the mix. No filling effect is observed even at the highest concentration of silica fume. There is an apparent increase in flexural strength of samples prepared only with silica fume and a decrease for those prepared with organosilane, with a few exceptions. XRD reveals that the pozzolanic reactivity of silica fume can only be observed when there is no organosilane present and the SEM-EDS method reveals the pore distribution, as well as hydration products and the presence or absence of calcium hydroxide. The current work was funded by the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research, CNCS – UEFISCDI, through project PN-III-P2-2.1-PED-2016-0719.

Keywords: cement hydration, concrete admixtures, NMR, organosilane, porosity, silica fume

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Authors: Dhanesh Sing Das, Bharat Tadikonda Venkata

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Collapsible soils undergo significant volume reduction upon wetting under the pre-existing mechanically applied normal stress (inundation pressure). These soils exhibit a very high strength in air-dried conditions and can carry up to a considerable magnitude of normal stress without undergoing significant volume change. The soil strength is, however, lost upon saturation and results in a sudden collapse of the soil structure under the existing mechanical stress condition. The intrusion of water into the dry deposits of such soil causes ground subsidence leading to damages in the overlying buildings/structures. A study on the wetting-induced volume change behavior of collapsible soils is essential in dealing with the ground subsidence problems in various geotechnical engineering practices. The collapse of loosely compacted Kaolin soil upon wetting under various inundation pressures has been reported in recent studies. The collapse in the Kaolin soil is attributed to the alteration in the soil particle-particle association (fabric) resulting due to the changes in the various inter-particle (microscale) forces induced by the water saturation. The inundation pressure plays a significant role in the fabric evolution during the wetting process, thus controls the collapse potential of the compacted soil. A microstructural study is useful to understand the collapse mechanisms at various pore-fabric levels under different inundation pressure. Kaolin soil compacted to a dry density of 1.25 g/cc was used in this work to study the wetting-induced volume change behavior under different inundation pressures in the range of 10-1600 kPa. The compacted specimen of Kaolin soil exhibited a consistent collapse under all the studied inundation pressure. The collapse potential was observed to be increasing with an increase in the inundation pressure up to a maximum value of 13.85% under 800 kPa and then decreased to 11.7% under 1600 kPa. Microstructural analysis was carried out based on the fabric images and the pore size distributions (PSDs) obtained from FESEM analysis and mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP), respectively. The PSDs and the soil fabric images of ‘as-compacted’ specimen and post-collapse specimen under 400 kPa were analyzed to understand the changes in the soil fabric and pores due to wetting. The pore size density curve for the post-collapse specimen was found to be on the finer side with respect to the ‘as-compacted’ specimen, indicating the reduction of the larger pores during the collapse. The inter-aggregate pores in the range of 0.1-0.5μm were identified as the major contributing pore size classes to the macroscopic volume change. Wetting under an inundation pressure results in the reduction of these pore sizes and lead to an increase in the finer pore sizes. The magnitude of inundation pressure influences the amount of reduction of these pores during the wetting process. The collapse potential was directly related to the degree of reduction in the pore volume contributed by these pore sizes.

Keywords: collapse behavior, inundation pressure, kaolin, microstructure

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Regina Rekuviene, Vykintas Samaitis, Liudas Mažeika, Audrius Jankauskas, Virginija Jankauskaitė, Laura Gegeckienė, Abdolali Sadaghiani, Shaghayegh Saeidiharzand

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Icing brings significant damage to aviation and renewable energy installations. Air-conditioning, refrigeration, wind turbine blades, airplane and helicopter blades often suffer from icing phenomena, which cause severe energy losses and impair aerodynamic performance. The icing process is a complex phenomenon with many different causes and types. Icing mechanisms, distributions, and patterns are still relevant to research topics. The adhesion strength between ice and surfaces differs in different icing environments. This makes the task of anti-icing very challenging. The techniques for various icing environments must satisfy different demands and requirements (e.g., efficient, lightweight, low power consumption, low maintenance and manufacturing costs, reliable operation). It is noticeable that most methods are oriented toward a particular sector and adapting them to or suggesting them for other areas is quite problematic. These methods often use various technologies and have different specifications, sometimes with no clear indication of their efficiency. There are two major groups of anti-icing methods: passive and active. Active techniques have high efficiency but, at the same time, quite high energy consumption and require intervention in the structure’s design. It’s noticeable that vast majority of these methods require specific knowledge and personnel skills. The main effect of passive methods (ice-phobic, superhydrophobic surfaces) is to delay ice formation and growth or reduce the adhesion strength between the ice and the surface. These methods are time-consuming and depend on forecasting. They can be applied on small surfaces only for specific targets, and most are non-biodegradable (except for anti-freezing proteins). There is some quite promising information on ultrasonic ice mitigation methods that employ UGW (Ultrasonic Guided Wave). These methods are have the characteristics of low energy consumption, low cost, lightweight, and easy replacement and maintenance. However, fundamental knowledge of ultrasonic de-icing methodology is still limited. The objective of this work was to identify the ice formation processes and its progress by employing ultrasonic guided wave technique. Throughout this research, the universal set-up for acoustic measurement of ice formation in a real condition (temperature range from +240 C to -230 C) was developed. Ultrasonic measurements were performed by using high frequency 5 MHz transducers in a pitch-catch configuration. The selection of wave modes suitable for detection of ice formation phenomenon on copper metal surface was performed. Interaction between the selected wave modes and ice formation processes was investigated. It was found that selected wave modes are sensitive to temperature changes. It was demonstrated that proposed ultrasonic technique could be successfully used for the detection of ice layer formation on a metal surface.

Keywords: ice formation processes, ultrasonic GW, detection of ice formation, ultrasonic testing

Procedia PDF Downloads 36

Authors: Kalpana Adhikari, Mandip Subedi, Keshab Sharma, Indra P. Acharya

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The Gorkha Nepal earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 struck the central region of Nepal on April 25, 2015 with the epicenter about 77 km northwest of Kathmandu Valley . Peak ground acceleration observed during the earthquake was 0.18g. This motion induced several geotechnical effects such as landslides, foundation failures liquefaction, lateral spreading and settlement, and local amplification. An aftershock of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.3 hit northeast of Kathmandu on May 12 after 17 days of main shock caused additional damages. Kathmandu is the largest city in Nepal, have a population over four million. As the Kathmandu Valley deposits are composed mainly of sand, silt and clay layers with a shallow ground water table, liquefaction is highly anticipated. Extensive liquefaction was also observed in Kathmandu Valley during the 1934 Nepal-Bihar earthquake. Field investigations were carried out in Kathmandu Valley immediately after Mw 7.8, April 25 main shock and Mw 7.3, May 12 aftershock. Geotechnical investigation of both liquefied and non-liquefied sites were conducted after the earthquake. This paper presents observations of liquefaction and liquefaction induced damage, and the liquefaction potential assessment based on Standard Penetration Tests (SPT) for liquefied and non-liquefied sites. SPT based semi-empirical approach has been used for evaluating liquefaction potential of the soil and Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) has been used to determine liquefaction probability. Recorded ground motions from the event are presented. Geological aspect of Kathmandu Valley and local site effect on the occurrence of liquefaction is described briefly. Observed liquefaction case studies are described briefly. Typically, these are sand boils formed by freshly ejected sand forced out of over-pressurized sub-strata. At most site, sand was ejected to agricultural fields forming deposits that varied from millimetres to a few centimeters thick. Liquefaction-induced damage to structures in these areas was not significant except buildings on some places tilted slightly. Boiled soils at liquefied sites were collected and the particle size distributions of ejected soils were analyzed. SPT blow counts and the soil profiles at ten liquefied and non-liquefied sites were obtained. The factors of safety against liquefaction with depth and liquefaction potential index of the ten sites were estimated and compared with observed liquefaction after 2015 Gorkha earthquake. The liquefaction potential indices obtained from the analysis were found to be consistent with the field observation. The field observations along with results from liquefaction assessment were compared with the existing liquefaction hazard map. It was found that the existing hazard maps are unrepresentative and underestimate the liquefaction susceptibility in Kathmandu Valley. The lessons learned from the liquefaction during this earthquake are also summarized in this paper. Some recommendations are also made to the seismic liquefaction mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley.

Keywords: factor of safety, geotechnical investigation, liquefaction, Nepal earthquake

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: Torsten Hermanns, You Wang, Stefan Janssen, Markus Niessen, Christoph Schoeler, Ulrich Thombansen, Wolfgang Schulz

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In long pulse laser drilling of metals, it can be demonstrated that the ablation shape approaches a so-called asymptotic shape such that it changes only slightly or not at all with further irradiation. These findings are already known from ultra short pulse (USP) ablation of dielectric and semiconducting materials. The explanation for the occurrence of an asymptotic shape in long pulse drilling of metals is identified, a model for the description of the asymptotic hole shape numerically implemented, tested and clearly confirmed by comparison with experimental data. The model assumes a robust process in that way that the characteristics of the melt flow inside the arising melt film does not change qualitatively by changing the laser or processing parameters. Only robust processes are technically controllable and thus of industrial interest. The condition for a robust process is identified by a threshold for the mass flow density of the assist gas at the hole entrance which has to be exceeded. Within a robust process regime the melt flow characteristics can be captured by only one model parameter, namely the intensity threshold. In analogy to USP ablation (where it is already known for a long time that the resulting hole shape results from a threshold for the absorbed laser fluency) it is demonstrated that in the case of robust long pulse ablation the asymptotic shape forms in that way that along the whole contour the absorbed heat flux density is equal to the intensity threshold. The intensity threshold depends on the special material and radiation properties and has to be calibrated be one reference experiment. The model is implemented in a numerical simulation which is called AsymptoticDrill and requires such a few amount of resources that it can run on common desktop PCs, laptops or even smart devices. Resulting hole shapes can be calculated within seconds what depicts a clear advantage over other simulations presented in literature in the context of industrial every day usage. Against this background the software additionally is equipped with a user-friendly GUI which allows an intuitive usage. Individual parameters can be adjusted using sliders while the simulation result appears immediately in an adjacent window. A platform independent development allow a flexible usage: the operator can use the tool to adjust the process in a very convenient manner on a tablet during the developer can execute the tool in his office in order to design new processes. Furthermore, at the best knowledge of the authors AsymptoticDrill is the first simulation which allows the import of measured real beam distributions and thus calculates the asymptotic hole shape on the basis of the real state of the specific manufacturing system. In this paper the emphasis is placed on the investigation of the effect of multiple reflections on the asymptotic hole shape which gain in importance when drilling holes with large aspect ratios.

Keywords: asymptotic hole shape, intensity threshold, long pulse laser drilling, robust process

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: A. Almurshedi, M. Atherton, C. Mares, T. Stolarski, M. Miyatake

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Transportation and handling of delicate and lightweight objects is currently a significant issue in some industries. Two common contactless movement prototype designs, ultrasonic transducer design and vibrating plate design, are compared. Both designs are based on the method of squeeze-film levitation, and this study aims to identify the limitations, and challenges of each. The designs are evaluated in terms of levitation capabilities, and characteristics. To this end, theoretical and experimental explorations are made. It is demonstrated that the ultrasonic transducer prototype design is better suited to the terms of levitation capabilities. However, the design has some operating and mechanical designing difficulties. For making accurate industrial products in micro-fabrication and nanotechnology contexts, such as semiconductor silicon wafers, micro-components and integrated circuits, non-contact oil-free, ultra-precision and low wear transport along the production line is crucial for enabling. One of the designs (design A) is called the ultrasonic chuck, for which an ultrasonic transducer (Langevin, FBI 28452 HS) comprises the main part. Whereas the other (design B), is a vibrating plate design, which consists of a plain rectangular plate made of Aluminium firmly fastened at both ends. The size of the rectangular plate is 200x100x2 mm. In addition, four rounded piezoelectric actuators of size 28 mm diameter with 0.5 mm thickness are glued to the underside of the plate. The vibrating plate is clamped at both ends in the horizontal plane through a steel supporting structure. In addition, the dynamic of levitation using the designs (A and B) has been investigated based on the squeeze film levitation (SFL). The input apparatus that is used with designs consist of a sine wave signal generator connected to an amplifier type ENP-1-1U (Echo Electronics). The latter has to be utilised to magnify the sine wave voltage that is produced by the signal generator. The measurements of the maximum levitation for three different semiconductor wafers of weights 52, 70 and 88 [g] for design A are 240, 205 and 187 [um], respectively. Whereas the physical results show that the average separation distance for a disk of 5 [g] weight for design B reaches 70 [um]. By using the methodology of squeeze film levitation, it is possible to hold an object in a non-contact manner. The analyses of the investigation outcomes signify that the non-contact levitation of design A provides more improvement than design B. However, design A is more complicated than design B in terms of its manufacturing. In order to identify an adequate non-contact SFL design, a comparison between two common such designs has been adopted for the current investigation. Specifically, the study will involve making comparisons in terms of the following issues: floating component geometries and material type constraints; final created pressure distributions; dangerous interactions with the surrounding space; working environment constraints; and complication and compactness of the mechanical design. Considering all these matters is essential for proficiently distinguish the better SFL design.

Keywords: ANSYS, floating, piezoelectric, squeeze-film

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Akm Badrul Alam, Yoshiaki Fujii, Nahid Hasan Dipu, Shakil Ahmed Razo

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Shale rockmasses often include silt layers, impacting slope stability in construction and mining. Analyzing their interaction is crucial for long-term stability. A study used an elastoplastic model, incorporating the stress transfer method and Coulomb's criterion, to assess a shale rock mass with silt layers. It computed stress distribution, assessed failure potential, and identified vulnerable regions where nodal forces were calculated for a comprehensive analysis. A shale rock mass ranging from 14.75 to 16.75 meters thick, with silt layers varying from 0.36 to 0.5 meters, was considered in the model. It examined four silt layer conditions: horizontal (SiHL), vertical (SiVL), inclined against slope (SiIincAGS), and along slope (SilincALO). Mechanical parameters like uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), tensile strength (TS), Young’s modulus (E), Poisson’s ratio, and density were adjusted for varied scenarios: UCS (0.5 to 5 MPa), TS (0.1 to 1 MPa), and E (6 to 60 MPa). In elastic analysis of shale rock masses, stress distributions vary based on layer properties. When shale and silt layers have the same elasticity modulus (E), stress concentrates at corners. If the silt layer has a lower E than shale, marginal changes in maximum stress (σmax) occur for SilHL. A decrease in σmax is evident at SilVL. Slight variations in σmax are observed for SilincAGS and SilincALO. In the elastoplastic analysis, the overall decrease of 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, and 90% was considered. For SilHL:(i) Same E, UCS, and TS for silt layer and shale, UCS/TS ratio 5: strength decrease led to shear (S), tension then shear (T then S) failure; noticeable failure at 60% decrease, significant at 80%, collapse at 90%. (ii) Lower E for silt layer, same strength as shale: No significant differences. (iii) Lower E and UCS, silt layer strength 1/10: No significant differences. For SilVL: (i) Same E, UCS, and TS for silt layer and shale, UCS/TS ratio 5: Similar effects as SilHL. (ii) Lower E for silt layer, same strength as shale: Slip occurred. (iii) Lower E and UCS, silt layer strength 1/10: Bitension failure also observed with larger slip. For SilincAGS: (i) Same E, UCS, and TS for silt layer and shale, UCS/TS ratio 5: Effects similar to SilHL. (ii) Lower E for silt layer, same strength as shale: Slip occurred. (iii) Lower E and UCS, silt layer strength 1/10: Tension failure also observed with larger slip. For SilincALO: (i) Same E, UCS, and TS for silt layer and shale, UCS/TS ratio 5: Similar to SilHL with tension failure. (ii) Lower E for silt layer, same strength as shale: No significant differences; failure diverged. (iii) Lower E and UCS, silt layer strength 1/10: Bitension failure also observed with larger slip; failure diverged. Toppling failure was observed for lower E cases of SilVL and SilincAGS. The presence of silt interlayers in shale greatly impacts slope stability. Designing slopes requires careful consideration of both the silt and shale's mechanical properties. The temporal degradation of strength in these layers is a major concern. Thus, slope design must comprehensively analyze the immediate and long-term mechanical behavior of interlayer silt and shale to effectively mitigate instability.

Keywords: shale rock masses, silt layers, slope stability, elasto-plastic model, temporal degradation

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Authors: T. Weber, D. MacKenzie

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The script in this paper describes the use of advanced simulation environment using electronic systems (microcontroller, operational amplifiers, and FPGA). The simulation was used for non-linear dynamic systems behaviour with required observer structure working with parallel real-time simulation based on state-space representation. The proposed deposited model was used for electrodynamic effects including ionising effects and eddy current distribution also. With the script and proposed method, it is possible to calculate the spatial distribution of the electromagnetic fields in real-time and such systems. For further purpose, the spatial temperature distribution may also be used. With upon system, the uncertainties and disturbances may be determined. This provides the estimation of the more precise system states for the required system and additionally the estimation of the ionising disturbances that arise due to radiation effects in space systems. The results have also shown that a system can be developed specifically with the real-time calculation (estimation) of the radiation effects only. Electronic systems can take damage caused by impacts with charged particle flux in space or radiation environment. TID (Total Ionising Dose) of 1 Gy and Single Effect Transient (SET) free operation up to 50 MeVcm²/mg may assure certain functions. Single-Event Latch-up (SEL) results on the placement of several transistors in the shared substrate of an integrated circuit; ionising radiation can activate an additional parasitic thyristor. This short circuit between semiconductor-elements can destroy the device without protection and measurements. Single-Event Burnout (SEB) on the other hand, increases current between drain and source of a MOSFET and destroys the component in a short time. A Single-Event Gate Rupture (SEGR) can destroy a dielectric of semiconductor also. In order to be able to react to these processes, it must be calculated within a shorter time that ionizing radiation and dose is present. For this purpose, sensors may be used for the realistic evaluation of the diffusion and ionizing effects of the test system. For this purpose, the Peltier element is used for the evaluation of the dynamic temperature increases (dT/dt), from which a measure of the ionization processes and thus radiation will be detected. In addition, the piezo element may be used to record highly dynamic vibrations and oscillations to absorb impacts of charged particle flux. All available sensors shall be used to calibrate the spatial distributions also. By measured value of size and known location of the sensors, the entire distribution in space can be calculated retroactively or more accurately. With the formation, the type of ionisation and the direct effect to the systems and thus possible prevent processes can be activated up to the shutdown. The results show possibilities to perform more qualitative and faster simulations independent of space-systems and radiation environment also. The paper gives additionally an overview of the diffusion effects and their mechanisms.

Keywords: cattle, biochar, manure, microbial activity

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Mikko Salminen, Niklas Ravaja

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Previous studies have shown that emotional intelligence (EI) has an important role in leadership and social interaction. On the other hand, physiological synchronization between two interacting participants has been related to, for example, intensity of the interaction, and interestingly also to empathy. It is suggested that the amount of covariation in physiological signals between the two interacting persons would also be related to how the discussion is perceived subjectively. To study the interrelations between physiological synchronization, emotional intelligence, and subjective perception of the interaction, performance review discussions between real manager – subordinate dyads were studied using psychophysiological measurements and self-reports. The participants consisted of 40 managers, of which 24 were female, and 78 of their subordinates, of which 45 were female. The participants worked in various fields, for example banking, education, and engineering. The managers had a normal performance review discussion with two subordinates, except two managers who, due to scheduling issues, had discussion with only one subordinate. The managers were on average 44.5 years old, and the subordinates on average 45.5 years old. Written consent, in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki, was obtained from all the participants. After the discussion, the participants filled a questionnaire assessing their emotions during the discussion. This included a self-assessment manikin (SAM) scale for the emotional valence during the discussion, with a 9-point graphical scale representing a manikin whose facial expressions ranged from smiling and happy to frowning and unhappy. In addition, the managers filled EI360, a 37-item self-report trait emotional intelligence questionnaire. The psychophysiological activity of the participants was recorded using two Varioport-B portable recording devices. Cardiac activity (ECG, electrocardiogram) was measured with two electrodes placed on the torso. Inter-beat interval (IBI, time between two successive heart beats) was calculated from the ECG signals. The facial muscle activation (EMG, electromyography) was recorded on three sites of the left side of the face: zygomaticus major (cheek muscle), orbicularis oculi (periocular muscle), and corrugator supercilii (frowning muscle). The facial-EMG signals were rectified and smoothed, and cross-coherences were calculated between members of each dyad, for all the three EMG signals, for the baseline and discussion periods. The values were natural-log transformed to normalize the distributions. Higher cross-coherence during the discussion between the manager’s and the subordinate’s zygomatic muscles was related to more positive valence self-reported emotions, F(1; 66,137) = 7,051; p=0,01. Thus, synchronized cheek muscle activation, either due to synchronous smiling or talking, was related to more positive perception of the discussion. In addition, higher IBI synchronization between the manager and the subordinate during the discussion was related to the manager’s higher self-reported emotional intelligence, F(1; 27,981)=4,58; p=0,041. That is, the EI was related to synchronous cardiac activity and possibly to similar physiological arousal levels. The results imply that the psychophysiological synchronization could be a potentially useful index in the study of social interaction and a valuable tool in the coaching of leadership skills in organizational contexts.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, leadership, psychophysiology, social interaction, synchronization

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Authors: Kai Warsoenke, Maik Mackiewicz

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To achieve a high quality of assembled car body structures, tolerancing is used to ensure a geometric accuracy of the single car body parts. There are two main techniques to determine the required tolerances. The first is tolerance analysis which describes the influence of individually tolerated input values on a required target value. Second is tolerance synthesis to determine the location of individual tolerances to achieve a target value. Both techniques are based on classical statistical methods, which assume certain probability distributions. To ensure competitiveness in both saturated and dynamic markets, production processes in vehicle manufacturing must be flexible and efficient. The dimensional specifications selected for the individual body components and the resulting assemblies have a major influence of the quality of the process. For example, in the manufacturing of forming tools as operating equipment or in the higher level of car body assembly. As part of the metrological process monitoring, manufactured individual parts and assemblies are recorded and the measurement results are stored in databases. They serve as information for the temporary adjustment of the production processes and are interpreted by experts in order to derive suitable adjustments measures. In the production of forming tools, this means that time-consuming and costly changes of the tool surface have to be made, while in the body shop, uncertainties that are difficult to control result in cost-intensive rework. The stored measurement results are not used to intelligently design tolerances in future processes or to support temporary decisions based on real-world geometric data. They offer potential to extend the tolerancing methods through data analysis and machine learning models. The purpose of this paper is to examine real-world measurement data from individual car body components, as well as assemblies, in order to develop an approach for using the data in short-term actions and future projects. For this reason, the measurement data will be analyzed descriptively in the first step in order to characterize their behavior and to determine possible correlations. In the following, a database is created that is suitable for developing machine learning models. The objective is to create an intelligent way to determine the position and number of measurement points as well as the local tolerance range. For this a number of different model types are compared and evaluated. The models with the best result are used to optimize equally distributed measuring points on unknown car body part geometries and to assign tolerance ranges to them. The current results of this investigation are still in progress. However, there are areas of the car body parts which behave more sensitively compared to the overall part and indicate that intelligent tolerancing is useful here in order to design and control preceding and succeeding processes more efficiently.

Keywords: automotive production, machine learning, process optimization, smart tolerancing

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Authors: Gerd Wilsch, Tobias Guenther, Tobias Voelker

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In view of the ageing of vital infrastructure facilities, a reliable condition assessment of concrete structures is becoming of increasing interest for asset owners to plan timely and appropriate maintenance and repair interventions. For concrete structures, reinforcement corrosion induced by penetrating chlorides is the dominant deterioration mechanism affecting the serviceability and, eventually, structural performance. The determination of the quantitative chloride ingress is required not only to provide valuable information on the present condition of a structure, but the data obtained can also be used for the prediction of its future development and associated risks. At present, wet chemical analysis of ground concrete samples by a laboratory is the most common test procedure for the determination of the chloride content. As the chloride content is expressed by the mass of the binder, the analysis should involve determination of both the amount of binder and the amount of chloride contained in a concrete sample. This procedure is laborious, time-consuming, and costly. The chloride profile obtained is based on depth intervals of 10 mm. LIBS is an economically viable alternative providing chloride contents at depth intervals of 1 mm or less. It provides two-dimensional maps of quantitative element distributions and can locate spots of higher concentrations like in a crack. The results are correlated directly to the mass of the binder, and it can be applied on-site to deliver instantaneous results for the evaluation of the structure. Examples for the application of the method in the laboratory for the investigation of diffusion and migration of chlorides, sulfates, and alkalis are presented. An example for the visualization of the Li transport in concrete is also shown. These examples show the potential of the method for a fast, reliable, and automated two-dimensional investigation of transport processes. Due to the better spatial resolution, more accurate input parameters for model calculations are determined. By the simultaneous detection of elements such as carbon, chlorine, sodium, and potassium, the mutual influence of the different processes can be determined in only one measurement. Furthermore, the application of a mobile LIBS system in a parking garage is demonstrated. It uses a diode-pumped low energy laser (3 mJ, 1.5 ns, 100 Hz) and a compact NIR spectrometer. A portable scanner allows a two-dimensional quantitative element mapping. Results show the quantitative chloride analysis on wall and floor surfaces. To determine the 2-D distribution of harmful elements (Cl, C), concrete cores were drilled, split, and analyzed directly on-site. Results obtained were compared and verified with laboratory measurements. The results presented show that the LIBS method is a valuable addition to the standard procedures - the wet chemical analysis of ground concrete samples. Currently, work is underway to develop a technical code of practice for the application of the method for the determination of chloride concentration in concrete.

Keywords: chemical analysis, concrete, LIBS, spectroscopy

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Authors: Shawndra Bowers, Allie Brandriet, Betsy Gilbertson

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This paper will highlight how Auburn Online’s instructional designers leveraged student and faculty data to update and improve online course design and instructional materials. When designing and revising online courses, it can be difficult for faculty to know what strategies are most likely to engage learners and improve educational outcomes in a specific discipline. It can also be difficult to identify which metrics are most useful for understanding and improving teaching, learning, and course design. At Auburn Online, the instructional designers use a suite of data based student’s performance, participation, satisfaction, and engagement, as well as faculty perceptions, to inform sound learning and design principles that guide growth-mindset consultations with faculty. The consultations allow the instructional designer, along with the faculty member, to co-create an actionable course improvement plan. Auburn Online gathers learning analytics from a variety of sources that any instructor or instructional design team may have access to at their own institutions. Participation and performance data, such as page: views, assignment submissions, and aggregate grade distributions, are collected from the learning management system. Engagement data is pulled from the video hosting platform, which includes unique viewers, views and downloads, the minutes delivered, and the average duration each video is viewed. Student satisfaction is also obtained through a short survey that is embedded at the end of each instructional module. This survey is included in each course every time it is taught. The survey data is then analyzed by an instructional designer for trends and pain points in order to identify areas that can be modified, such as course content and instructional strategies, to better support student learning. This analysis, along with the instructional designer’s recommendations, is presented in a comprehensive report to instructors in an hour-long consultation where instructional designers collaborate with the faculty member on how and when to implement improvements. Auburn Online has developed a triage strategy of priority 1 or 2 level changes that will be implemented in future course iterations. This data-informed decision-making process helps instructors focus on what will best work in their teaching environment while addressing which areas need additional attention. As a student-centered process, it has created improved learning environments for students and has been well received by faculty. It has also shown to be effective in addressing the need for improvement while removing the feeling the faculty’s teaching is being personally attacked. The process that Auburn Online uses is laid out, along with the three-tier maintenance and revision guide that will be used over a three-year implementation plan. This information can help others determine what components of the maintenance and revision plan they want to utilize, as well as guide them on how to create a similar approach. The data will be used to analyze, revise, and improve courses by providing recommendations and models of good practices through determining and disseminating best practices that demonstrate an impact on student success.

Keywords: data-driven, improvement, online courses, faculty development, analytics, course design

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Authors: Samia Elfekih, Wee Tek Tay, Karl Gordon, Paul De Barro

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Invasive species represent an increasing threat to food biosecurity, causing significant economic losses in agricultural systems. An example is the sweet potato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, which is a complex of morphologically indistinguishable species causing average annual global damage estimated at US$2.4 billion. The Bemisia complex represents an interesting model for evolutionary studies because of their extensive distribution and potential for invasiveness and population expansion. Within this complex, two species, Middle East-Asia Minor 1 (MEAM1) and Mediterranean (MED) have invaded well beyond their home ranges whereas others, such as Indian Ocean (IO) and Australia (AUS), have not. In order to understand why some Bemisia species have become invasive, genome-wide sequence scans were used to estimate population dynamics over time and relate these to climate. The Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) method as implemented in BEAST was used to infer the historical effective population size. In order to overcome sampling bias, the populations were combined based on geographical origin. The datasets used for this particular analysis are genome-wide SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) called separately in each of the following groups: Sub-Saharan Africa (Burkina Faso), Europe (Spain, France, Greece and Croatia), USA (Arizona), Mediterranean-Middle East (Israel, Italy), Middle East-Central Asia (Turkmenistan, Iran) and Reunion Island. The non-invasive ‘AUS’ species endemic to Australia was used as an outgroup. The main findings of this study show that the BSP for the Sub-Saharan African MED population is different from that observed in MED populations from the Mediterranean Basin, suggesting evolution under a different set of environmental conditions. For MED, the effective size of the African (Burkina Faso) population showed a rapid expansion ≈250,000-310,000 years ago (YA), preceded by a period of slower growth. The European MED populations (i.e., Spain, France, Croatia, and Greece) showed a single burst of expansion at ≈160,000-200,000 YA. The MEAM1 populations from Israel and Italy and the ones from Iran and Turkmenistan are similar as they both show the earlier expansion at ≈250,000-300,000 YA. The single IO population lacked the latter expansion but had the earlier one. This pattern is shared with the Sub-Saharan African (Burkina Faso) MED, suggesting IO also faced a similar history of environmental change, which seems plausible given their relatively close geographical distributions. In conclusion, populations within the invasive species MED and MEAM1 exhibited signatures of population expansion lacking in non-invasive species (IO and AUS) during the Pleistocene, a geological epoch marked by repeated climatic oscillations with cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. These expansions strongly suggested the potential of some Bemisia species’ genomes to affect their adaptability and invasiveness.

Keywords: whitefly, RADseq, invasive species, SNP, climate change

Procedia PDF Downloads 104