Search results for: geothermal energy production forecasting

Authors: Pawel Sowa, Joachim Bargiel, Bogdan Mol, Katarzyna Luszcz

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The article raises the issue of the development of local renewable energy sources and the production of distributed energy in context of improving the reliability of the Polish Power System and the beneficial impact on local and national energy security. The paper refers to the current problems of local governments in the process of investment in the area of distributed energy projects, and discusses the issues of the future role and cooperation within the local power plants and distributed energy. Attention is paid to the local communities the chance to raise their own resources and management of energy fuels (biomass, wind, gas mining) and improving the local energy balance. The material presented takes the issue of the development of the energy potential of municipalities and future cooperation with professional energy. As an example, practical solutions used in one of the communes in Silesia.

Keywords: distributed generation, mini centers energy, renewable energy sources, reliability of supply of rural commune

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Authors: Farnaz Farhangi

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Many people in New Zealand believe that the access to water is inexhaustible, and it comes from a history of virtually unrestricted access to it. For the region like Hamilton which is one of New Zealand’s fastest growing cities, it is crucial for policy makers to know about the future water consumption and implementation of rules and regulation such as universal water metering. Hamilton residents use water freely and they do not have any idea about how much water they use. Hence, one of proposed objectives of this research is focusing on forecasting water consumption using different methods. Residential water consumption time series exhibits seasonal and trend variations. Seasonality is the pattern caused by repeating events such as weather conditions in summer and winter, public holidays, etc. The problem with this seasonal fluctuation is that, it dominates other time series components and makes difficulties in determining other variations (such as educational campaign’s effect, regulation, etc.) in time series. Apart from seasonality, a stochastic trend is also combined with seasonality and makes different effects on results of forecasting. According to the forecasting literature, preprocessing (de-trending and de-seasonalization) is essential to have more performed forecasting results, while some other researchers mention that seasonally non-adjusted data should be used. Hence, I answer the question that is pre-processing essential? A wide range of forecasting methods exists with different pros and cons. In this research, I apply double seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), considering diverse elements such as seasonality and calendar effects (public and school holidays) and combine their results to find the best predicted values. My hypothesis is the examination the results of combined method (hybrid model) and individual methods and comparing the accuracy and robustness. In order to use ARIMA, the data should be stationary. Also, ANN has successful forecasting applications in terms of forecasting seasonal and trend time series. Using a hybrid model is a way to improve the accuracy of the methods. Due to the fact that water demand is dominated by different seasonality, in order to find their sensitivity to weather conditions or calendar effects or other seasonal patterns, I combine different methods. The advantage of this combination is reduction of errors by averaging of each individual model. It is also useful when we are not sure about the accuracy of each forecasting model and it can ease the problem of model selection. Using daily residential water consumption data from January 2000 to July 2015 in Hamilton, I indicate how prediction by different methods varies. ANN has more accurate forecasting results than other method and preprocessing is essential when we use seasonal time series. Using hybrid model reduces forecasting average errors and increases the performance.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), double seasonal ARIMA, forecasting, hybrid model

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Authors: Sneha Thakur, Sanjeev Karmakar

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This paper proposed hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) – Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) model for groundwater level prediction. The evaluation of the performance is realized using the parameters: root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Ground water level forecasting will be very effective for planning water harvesting. Proper calculation of water level forecasting can overcome the problem of drought and flood to some extent. The objective of this work is to develop a ground water level forecasting model using deep learning technique integrated with optimization technique PSO by applying 29 years data of Chhattisgarh state, In-dia. It is important to find the precise forecasting in case of ground water level so that various water resource planning and water harvesting can be managed effectively.

Keywords: long short-term memory, particle swarm optimization, prediction, deep learning, groundwater level

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Authors: Tami A. Ulhiza, Noor I. M. Puad, Azlin S. Azmi, Mohd. I. A. Malek

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High amount of chemical oxygen demand (COD) in starchy waste can be harmful to the environment. In common practice, starch processing wastewater is discharged to the river without proper treatment. However, starchy waste still contains complex sugars and organic acids. By the right pretreatment method, the complex sugar can be hydrolyzed into more readily digestible sugars which can be utilized to be converted into more valuable products. At the same time, the global demand of energy is inevitable. The continuous usage of fossil fuel as the main source of energy can lead to energy scarcity. Hydrogen is a renewable form of energy which can be an alternative energy in the future. Moreover, hydrogen is clean and carries the highest energy compared to other fuels. Biohydrogen produced from waste has significant advantages over chemical methods. One of the major problems in biohydrogen production is the raw material cost. The carbohydrate-rich starchy wastes such as tapioca, maize, wheat, potato, and sago wastes is a promising candidate to be used as a substrate in producing biohydrogen. The utilization of those wastes for biohydrogen production can provide cheap energy generation with simultaneous waste treatment. Therefore this paper aims to review variety source of starchy wastes that has been widely used to synthesize biohydrogen. The scope includes the source of waste, the performance in yielding hydrogen, the pretreatment method and the type of culture that is suitable for starchy waste.

Keywords: biohydrogen, dark fermentation, renewable energy, starchy waste

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Authors: Matthew B. Davis, Amit Kumar

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With potentially dangerous impacts of climate change on the horizon, Canada has an opportunity to take a lead role on the international stage to demonstrate how energy use intensity and greenhouse gas emission intensity may be effectively reduced. Through bottom-up modelling of Canada’s energy sector using Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) software, it can be determined where efforts should to be concentrated to produce the most positive energy management results. By analyzing a provincially integrated Canada, one can develop strategies to minimize the country’s economic downfall while transitioning to lower-emission energy technologies. Canada’s electricity sector plays an important role in accommodating these transitionary technologies as fossil-fuel based power production is prevalent in many parts of the country and is responsible for a large portion (17%) of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions. Current findings incorporate an in-depth model of Canada’s current energy supply and demand sectors, as well as a business-as-usual scenario up to the year 2035. This allows for in-depth analysis of energy flow from resource potential, to extraction, to fuel and electricity production, to energy end use and emissions in Canada’s residential, transportation, commercial, institutional, industrial, and agricultural sectors. Bottom-up modelling techniques such as these are useful to critically analyze and compare the various possible scenarios of implementing sustainable energy measures. This work can aid government in creating effective energy and environmental policies, as well as guide industry to what technology or process changes would be most worthwhile to pursue.

Keywords: energy management, LEAP, energy end-use, GHG emissions

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Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek

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In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model

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Authors: Thabelo Nelushi, Michael Scurrell, Tumelo Seadira

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Global warming is one of the most important environmental issues which arise from occurrence of gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in the atmosphere. Exposure to these greenhouse gases results in health risk. Hydrogen is regarded as an alternative energy source which is a clean energy carrier for the future. There are different methods to produce hydrogen such as steam reforming, coal gasification etc., however the challenge with these processes is that they emit CO and CO2 gases and are costly. Photocatalytic reforming is a substitute process which is fascinating due to the combination of solar energy and renewable sources and the use of semiconductor materials such as catalysts. TiO2 is regarded as the most promising catalysts. TiO2 nanoparticles prepared by hydrothermal method and Ag/TiO2 are being investigated for photocatalytic production of hydrogen from butanol. The samples were characterized by raman spectroscopy, TEM/SEM, XRD, XPS, EDAX, DRS and BET surface area. 2 wt% Ag-doped TiO2 nanoparticle showed enhanced hydrogen production compared to a non-doped TiO2. The results of characterization and photoactivity shows that TiO2 nanoparticles play a very important role in producing high hydrogen by utilizing solar irradiation.

Keywords: butanol, hydrogen production, silver particles, TiO2 nanoparticles

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Authors: Kiran Kumar K., Ramesh Babu Bejjam, Atul Najan

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A thermosyphon system is a heat transfer loop which operates on the basis of gravity and buoyancy forces. It guarantees a good reliability and low maintenance cost as it does not involve any mechanical pump. Therefore it can be used in many industrial applications such as refrigeration and air conditioning, electronic cooling, nuclear reactors, geothermal heat extraction, etc. But flow instabilities and loop configuration are the major problems in this system. Several previous researchers studied that stabilities can be suppressed by using nanofluids as loop fluid. In the present study a rectangular thermosyphon loop with end heat exchangers are considered for the study. This configuration is more appropriate for many practical applications such as solar water heater, geothermal heat extraction, etc. In the present work, steady-state analysis is carried out on thermosyphon loop with parallel flow coaxial heat exchangers at heat source and heat sink. In this loop nano fluid is considered as the loop fluid and water is considered as the external fluid in both hot and cold heat exchangers. For this analysis one-dimensional homogeneous model is developed. In this model, conservation equations like conservation of mass, momentum, energy are discretized using finite difference method. A computer code is written in MATLAB to simulate the flow in thermosyphon loop. A comparison in terms of heat transfer is made between water and nano fluid as working fluids in the loop.

Keywords: heat exchanger, heat transfer, nanofluid, thermosyphon loop

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Authors: G. Kaur, A. P. Kulkarni, S. Giddey

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Production of fuels and chemicals using renewable energy is a promising way for large-scale energy storage and export. Solid oxide electrolysers (SOEs) integrated with renewable source of energy can produce 'Syngas' H₂/CO from H₂O/CO₂ in the desired ratio for further conversion to liquid fuels. As only a waste CO₂ from industrial and power generation processes is utilized in these processes, this approach is CO₂ neutral compared to using fossil fuel feedstock. In addition, the waste heat from industrial processes or heat from solar thermal concentrators can be effectively utilised in SOEs to further reduce the electrical requirements by up to 30% which boosts overall energy efficiency of the process. In this paper, the electrochemical performance of various novel steam/CO₂ reduction electrodes (cathode) would be presented. The efficiency and lifetime degradation data for single cells and a stack would be presented along with the response of cells to variable electrical load input mimicking the intermittent nature of the renewable energy sources. With such optimisation, newly developed electrodes have been tested for 500+ hrs with Faraday efficiency (electricity to fuel conversion efficiency) up to 95%, and thermal efficiency in excess of 70% based upon energy content of the syngas produced.

Keywords: carbon dioxide, steam conversion, electrochemical system, energy storage, fuel production, renewable energy

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Authors: Watchareeporn Chaimongkol

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In this paper, we compare the statistical measures accuracy of composite forecasting model to estimate automobile customer demand in Thailand. A modified simple exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model is built to estimate customer demand of passenger cars, instead of using information of historical sales data. Our model takes into account special characteristic of the Thai automobile market such as sales promotion, advertising and publicity, petrol price, and interest rate for loan. We evaluate our forecasting model by comparing forecasts with actual data using six accuracy measurements, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), geometric mean absolute error (GMAE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE), median relative absolute error (MdRAE), and geometric mean relative absolute error (GMRAE).

Keywords: composite forecasting, simple exponential smoothing model, autoregressive integrate moving average model selection, accuracy measurements

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Authors: Michael Graz, Natasha Hurril, Andrew Shearer

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Research on feed supplementation with natural compounds is currently being intensively pursued with a view to improving energy utilisation in ruminants and mitigating the production of methane by these animals. Towards this end, a novel combination of extracts from garlic and bitter orange was therefore selected for trials on the basis of their previously published in vitro anti-methanogenic potential. Three separate in vitro experiments were conducted to determine energy utilisation and greenhouse gas production. These included use of rumen fluid from fistulated cows and sheep in batch culture, the Hohenheim gas test, and the Rusitec technique. Experimental and control arms were utilised, with 5g extracts per kilogram of total dietary dry matter (0.05g/kg active compounds) being used to supplement or not supplement the in vitro systems. Respiratory measurements were conducted on experimental day 1 for the batch culture and Hohenheim gas test and on day 14-21 for the Rusitec Technique (in a 21-day trial). Measurements included methane (CH4) production, total volatile fatty acid (VFA) concentration, molar proportions of acetate, propionate and butyrate and degradation of organic matter (Rusitec). CH4 production was reduced by 82% (±16%), 68% (±11%) and 37% (±4%) in the batch culture, Hohenheim gas test and Rusitec, respectively. Total VFA production was reduced by 13% (±2%) and 2% (±0.1%) in the batch culture and Hohenheim gas test whilst it was increased by 8% (±2%) in the Rusitec. Total VFA production was reduced in all tests between 2 and 10%, whilst acetate production was reduced between 10% and 29%. Propionate production which is an indicator of weight gain was increased in all cases between 16% and 30%. Butyrate production which is considered an indicator of potential milk yield was increased by between 6 and 11%. Degradation of organic matter in the Rusitec experiments was improved by 10% (±0.1%). In conclusion, the study demonstrated the potential of the combination of garlic and citrus extracts to improve digestion, enhance body energy retention and limit CH4 formation in relation to feed intake.

Keywords: citrus, garlic, methane, ruminants

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Authors: Daham Owaid Matrood, Naqaa Hussein Raheem

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Evolutionary algorithms and Artificial neural networks (ANN) are two relatively young research areas that were subject to a steadily growing interest during the past years. This paper examines the use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to train a multi-layer feed forward neural network for demand forecasting. We use in this paper weekly demand data for packed cement and towels, which have been outfitted by the Northern General Company for Cement and General Company of prepared clothes respectively. The results showed superiority of trained neural networks using particle swarm optimization on neural networks trained using error back propagation because their ability to escape from local optima.

Keywords: artificial neural network, demand forecasting, particle swarm optimization, weight optimization

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Authors: Andreas Livera, Spyros Theocharides, Michalis Florides, Charalambos Anastassiou

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A main challenge in the quest for ensuring quality of operation, especially for photovoltaic (PV) systems, is to safeguard the reliability and optimal performance by detecting and diagnosing potential failures and performance losses at early stages or before the occurrence through real-time monitoring, supervision, fault detection, and predictive maintenance. The purpose of this work is to present the functionalities and results related to the development and validation of a software platform for PV assets diagnosis and maintenance. The platform brings together proprietary hardware sensors and software algorithms to enable the early detection and prediction of the most common and critical faults in PV systems. It was validated using field measurements from operating PV systems. The results showed the effectiveness of the platform for detecting faults and losses (e.g., inverter failures, string disconnections, and potential induced degradation) at early stages, forecasting PV power production while also providing recommendations for maintenance actions. Increased PV energy yield production and revenue can be thus achieved while also minimizing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs.

Keywords: failure detection and prediction, operation and maintenance, performance monitoring, photovoltaic, platform, recommendations, predictive maintenance

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Authors: Andreas Gohs, Reinhold Kosfeld

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This study should be of interest for practitioners who want to predict precisely the sales numbers of vehicles equipped with an innovative propulsion technology as well as for researchers interested in applied (regional) time series analysis. The study is based on the numbers of new registrations of pure electric and hybrid cars. Methods of time series analysis like ARIMA are compared with the Bass Diffusion-model concerning their forecasting performances for new registrations in Germany at the national and federal state levels. Especially it is investigated if the additional information content from regional data increases the forecasting accuracy for the national level by adding predictions for the federal states. Results of parameters of the Bass Diffusion Model estimated for Germany and its sixteen federal states are reported. While the focus of this research is on the German market, estimation results are also provided for selected European and other countries. Concerning Bass-parameters and forecasting performances, we get very different results for Germany's federal states and the member states of the European Union. This corresponds to differences across the EU-member states in the adoption process of this innovative technology. Concerning the German market, the adoption is rather proceeded in southern Germany and stays behind in Eastern Germany except for Berlin.

Keywords: bass diffusion model, electric vehicles, forecasting performance, market diffusion

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Authors: Pujari Muruga, T. K. Radhakrishnan, N. Samsudeen

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Hydrogen is considered as the most important energy carrier and fuel of the future because of its high energy density and zero emission properties. Microbial Electrolysis Cell (MEC) is a new and promising approach for hydrogen production from organic matter, including wastewater and other renewable resources. By utilizing anode microorganism activity, MEC can produce hydrogen gas with smaller voltages (as low as 0.2 V) than those required for electrolytic hydrogen production ( ≥ 1.23 V). The hydrogen production processes of the MEC reactor are very nonlinear and highly complex because of the presence of microbial interactions and highly complex phenomena in the system. Increasing the hydrogen production rate and lowering the energy input are two important challenges of MEC technology. The mathematical model of the MEC is based on material balance with the integration of bioelectrochemical reactions. The main objective of the research is to produce biohydrogen by selecting the optimum current and controlling applied voltage to the MEC. Precise control is required for the MEC reactor, so that the amount of current required to produce hydrogen gas can be controlled according to the composition of the substrate in the reactor. Various simulation tests involving multiple set-point changes disturbance and noise rejection were performed to evaluate the performance using PID controller tuned with Ziegler Nichols settings. Simulation results shows that other good controller can provide better control effect on the MEC system, so that higher hydrogen production can be obtained.

Keywords: microbial electrolysis cell, hydrogen production, applied voltage, PID controller

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Authors: Dylber Qema

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Driven by recent developments in technology and the growing concern about the sustainability and environmental impact of conventional fuel use, the possibility of producing clean and sustainable energy in significant quantities from renewable energy sources has sparked interest all over the world. Solar energy is one of the sources for the generation of electricity, with no emissions or environmental pollution. The electricity produced by photovoltaics can supply a home or business and can even be sold or exchanged with the grid operator. A very positive effect of using photovoltaic modules is that they do not produce greenhouse gases and do not produce chemical waste, unlike all other forms of energy production. Photovoltaics are becoming one of the largest investments in the field of renewable generating units. Improving the reliability of the electric power system is one of the most important impacts of the installation of photovoltaics (PV). Renewable energy sources are so large that they can meet the energy demands of the whole world, thus enabling sustainable supply as well as reducing local and global atmospheric emissions. Albania is rated by experts as one of the most favorable countries in Europe for the production of electricity from solar panels. But the country currently produces about 1% of its energy from the sun, while the rest of the needs are met by hydropower plants and imports. Albania has very good characteristics in terms of solar radiation (about 1300–1400 kW/m2). Solar energy has great potential and is a permanent source of energy with greater economic efficiency. Photovoltaic energy is also seen as an alternative, as long periods of drought in Albania have produced crises and high costs for securing energy in the foreign market.

Keywords: capacity, ministry of tourism and environment, obstacles, photovoltaic energy, sustainable

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Authors: Fabian Velasquez, John Espitia, Henry Hernadez, Sebastian Escobar, Jader Rodriguez

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Non-centrifuged cane sugar (NCS) is a concentrated product obtained through the evaporation of water contain from sugarcane juice inopen heat exchangers (OE). The heat supplied to the evaporation stages is obtained from the cane bagasse through the thermochemical process of combustion, where the thermal energy released is transferred to OE by the flue gas. Therefore, the optimization of energy usage becomes essential for the proper design of the production process. For optimize the energy use, it is necessary modeling and simulation of heat transfer between the combustion gases and the juice and to understand the major mechanisms involved in the heat transfer. The main objective of this work was simulated heat transfer phenomena between the flue gas and open heat exchangers using Computational Fluid Dynamics model (CFD). The simulation results were compared to field measured data. Numerical results about temperature profile along the flue gas pipeline at the measurement points are in good accordance with field measurements. Thus, this study could be of special interest in design NCS production process and the optimization of the use of energy.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, design variables, computational fluid dynamics, overall thermal efficiency

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Authors: Santosh Ghosh, Vinod Kumar Yadav, Vivekananda Mukherjee, Ishta Garg

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India, akin to the rest of the world today, is grappling with balancing act between ever increasing demand for energy and alarmingly high level of green house gas emission, which is inevitable corollary of energy production in the conventional way. Researchers and energy policy makers around the world are now focusing on renewable energy (RE) technologies to find solution to this crisis. In India various agencies at both national and state level has been set up and bestowed with responsibility of development of renewable energy technologies, viz. Ministry of New Renewable Energy (MNRE), National Vidyut Vyapar Nigam Ltd. (NVVNL), Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Limited (IREDA) and RE Development Agencies in respective states. In the present work, the preparedness of India in terms of forming institutional and policy frame work briefly discussed. Status of implementation of RE technologies state wise and of India as a whole, critically reviewed.

Keywords: energy policy, energy sustainability, renewable energy, IREDA

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Authors: Aldona Kluczek

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In recent years, manufacturing processes have interacted with sustainability issues realized in the cost-effective ways that minimalize energy, decrease negative impacts on the environment and are safe for society. However, the attention has been on separate sustainability assessment methods considering energy and material flow, energy consumption, and emission release or process control. In this paper, the energy-led sustainability assessment approach combining the methods: energy Life Cycle Assessment to assess environmental impact, Life Cycle Cost to analyze costs, and Social Life Cycle Assessment through ‘energy LCA-based value stream map’, is used to assess the energy sustainability of the hardwood lumber manufacturing process in terms of technologies. The approach integrating environmental, economic and social issues can be visualized in the considered energy-efficient technologies on the map of an energy LCA-related (input and output) inventory data. It will enable the identification of efficient technology of a given process to be reached, through the effective analysis of energy flow. It is also indicated that interventions in the considered technology should focus on environmental, economic improvements to achieve energy sustainability. The results have indicated that the most intense energy losses are caused by a cogeneration technology. The environmental impact analysis shows that a substantial reduction by 34% can be achieved with the improvement of it. From the LCC point of view, the result seems to be cost-effective, when done at that plant where the improvement is used. By demonstrating the social dimension, every component of the energy of plant labor use in the life-cycle process of the lumber production has positive energy benefits. The energy required to install the energy-efficient technology amounts to 30.32 kJ compared to others components of the energy of plant labor and it has the highest value in terms of energy-related social indicators. The paper depicts an example of hardwood lumber production in order to prove the applicability of a sustainability assessment method.

Keywords: energy efficiency, energy life cycle assessment, life cycle cost, social life cycle analysis, manufacturing process, sustainability assessment

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Authors: Ji-Seok Koo, Hee‑Yong Kwon, Hui-Young Yun, Kyung-Hui Wang, Youn-Seo Koo

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This paper presents a forecasting system for PM2.5 levels in Seoul, South Korea, leveraging a combination of chemical transport modeling and ConvLSTM-DNN machine learning technology. Exposure to PM2.5 has known detrimental impacts on public health, making its prediction crucial for establishing preventive measures. Existing forecasting models, like the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), are hindered by their reliance on uncertain input data, such as anthropogenic emissions and meteorological patterns, as well as certain intrinsic model limitations. The system we've developed specifically addresses these issues by integrating machine learning and using carefully selected input features that account for local and distant sources of PM2.5. In South Korea, the PM2.5 concentration is greatly influenced by both local emissions and long-range transport from China, and our model effectively captures these spatial and temporal dynamics. Our PM2.5 prediction system combines the strengths of advanced hybrid machine learning algorithms, convLSTM and DNN, to improve upon the limitations of the traditional CMAQ model. Data used in the system include forecasted information from CMAQ and WRF models, along with actual PM2.5 concentration and weather variable data from monitoring stations in China and South Korea. The system was implemented specifically for Seoul's PM2.5 forecasting.

Keywords: PM2.5 forecast, machine learning, convLSTM, DNN

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Authors: Maha Hammami, Olfa Benouda Sioud

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This study investigates the reliability of management earnings forecasts with reference to these two ingredients: verifiability and neutrality. Specifically, we examine the biasedness (or accuracy) of management earnings forecasts and company specific characteristics that can be associated with accuracy. Based on sample of 102 IPO prospectuses published for admission on NYSE Euronext Paris from 2002 to 2010, we found that these forecasts are on average optimistic and two of the five test variables, earnings variability and financial leverage are significant in explaining ex post bias. Acknowledging the possibility that the bias is the result of the managers’ forecasting behavior, we then examine whether managers decide to under-predict, over-predict or forecast accurately for self-serving purposes. Explicitly, we examine the role of financial distress, operating performance, ownership by insiders and the economy state in influencing managers’ forecasting preferences. We find that managers of distressed firms seem to over-predict future earnings. We also find that when managers are given more stock options, they tend to under-predict future earnings. Finally, we conclude that the management earnings forecasts are affected by an intentional bias due to managers’ forecasting preferences.

Keywords: intentional bias, management earnings forecasts, neutrality, verifiability

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Authors: Jiangyong Liu, Xiangxiang Xu, Bote Luo, Xiaoxue Luo, Jiang Zhu, Lingzhi Yi

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To address the problems of non-linearity and high randomness of the original power load sequence causing the degradation of power load forecasting accuracy, a short-term load forecasting method is proposed. The method is based on the Least Square Support Vector Machine optimized by an Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm combined with the Variational Mode Decomposition proposed in this paper. The application of the variational mode decomposition technique decomposes the raw power load data into a series of Intrinsic Mode Functions components, which can reduce the complexity and instability of the raw data while overcoming modal confounding; the proposed improved sparrow search algorithm can solve the problem of difficult selection of learning parameters in the least Square Support Vector Machine. Finally, through comparison experiments, the results show that the method can effectively improve prediction accuracy.

Keywords: load forecasting, variational mode decomposition, improved sparrow search algorithm, least square support vector machine

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Authors: Aurela Jahja, Katarzyna Wątor, Arjan Beqiraj, Piotr Rusiniak, Nevton Kodhelaj

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Albanian geological terrains represent an important node of the Alpine – Mediterranean mountain belt and are divided into several predominantly NNW - SSE striking geotectonic units, which, based on the presence or lack of Cretaceous transgression and magmatic rocks, belong to Internal or External Albanides. The internal (Korabi, Mirdita and Gashi) units are characterized by the Lower Cretaceous discordance and the presence of abundant magmatic rocks whereas in the external (Alps, Krasta-Cukali, Kruja, Ionian, Sazani and Peri Adriatic Depression) units an almost continuous sedimentation from Triassic to Paleogene is evidenced. The internal and external units show relevant differences in both geothermal and heat flow density values. The gradient values vary from 15-21.3 to 36 mK/m, while the heat flow density ranges from 42 to 60 mW/m2, in the external (Preadriatic Depression) and internal (ophiolitic belt) units, respectively. The geothermal fluids, which are found in natural springs and deep oil wells of Albania, are located in four thermo-mineral provinces: a) Peshkopi (Korabi) province; b) Kruja province; c) Preadriatic basin province, and d) South Ionian province. Thirteen geothermal waters were sampled from 11 natural springs and 2 deep wells, of which 6 springs and 2 wells from Kruja, 1 spring from Peshkopia, 2 springs from Preadriatic basin and 2 springs South Ionian province. Temperature, pH and Electrical Conductivity were measured in situ, while in laboratory were analyzed by ICP method major anions and cations and several trace elements (B, Li, Sr, Rb, I, Br, etc.). The measured values of temperature, pH and electrical conductivity range within 17-63°C, 6.26-7.92 and 724- 26856µS/cm intervals, respectively. The chemical type of the Albania thermal waters is variable. In the Kruja province prevail the Cl-SO4-NaCa and Cl-Na-Ca water types; while SO4-Ca, HCO3-Ca and Cl-HCO3-Na-Ca, and Cl-Na are found in the provinces of Peshkopi, Ionian and Preadriatic basin, respectively. In the Cl-SO4-HCO3 triangular diagram most of the geothermal waters are close to the chloride corner that belong to “mature waters”, typical of geothermal deep and hot fluids. Only samples from the Ionian province are located within the region of high bicarbonate concentration and they can be classified as peripheral waters that may have mixed with cold groundwater. In the Na-Ca-Mg and Na-K-Mg triangular diagram the majority of waters fall in the corner of sodium, suggesting that their cation ratios are controlled by mineral-solution equilibrium. There is a linear relationship between Cl and B which indicates the mixing of geothermal water with cold water, where the low-chlorine thermal waters from Ionian basin and Preadriatic depression provinces are distinguished by high-chlorine thermal waters from Kruja province. The Cl/Br molar ration of the thermal waters from Kruja province ranges from 1000 to 2660 and separates them from the thermal waters of Ionian basin and Preadriatic depression provinces having Cl/Br molar ratio lower than 650. The apparent increase of Cl/Br molar ratio that correlates with the increasing of the chloride, is probably related with dissolution of the Halite.

Keywords: geothermal fluids, geotectonic units, natural springs, deep wells, mature waters, peripheral waters

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Authors: Frantisek Bozek, Pavel Budinsky, Ignac Hoza, Alexandr Bozek, Magdalena Naplavova

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A cleaner production project was implemented in a bakery. The project is based on the substitution of the best available technique for an obsolete leaven production technology. The new technology enables production of durable, high-quality leavens. Moreover, 25% of flour as the original raw material can be replaced by pastry from the previous day production which has not been sold. That pastry was previously disposed in a waste incineration plant. Besides the environmental benefits resulting from less waste, lower consumption of energy, reduction of sewage waters quantity and floury dustiness there are also significant economic benefits. Payback period of investment was calculated with help of static method of financial analysis about 2.6 years, using dynamic method 3.5 years and an internal rate of return more than 29%. The supposed annual average profit after taxation in the second year of operation was incompliance with the real profit.

Keywords: bakery, best available technology, cleaner production, costs, economic benefit, efficiency, energy, environmental benefit, investment, savings

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Authors: René Davids

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Some Western countries are abandoning coal and finding cleaner alternatives, such as solar, wind, hydroelectric, biomass, and geothermal, for the production of energy. As a consequence, industries have closed, and the toxic contaminated slag heaps formed essentially of discarded rock that did not contain coal are being colonized by spontaneously generated plant communities. In becoming green hiking territory, goat farms, viewing platforms, vineyards, great staging posts for species experiencing, and skiing slopes, many of the formerly abandoned hills of refuse have become delightful amenities to the surrounding communities. Together with the transformation of many industrial facilities into cultural venues, these changes to the slag hills have allowed the old coal districts to develop a new identity, but in the process, they have also literally buried the past. This essay reviews a few case studies to analyze the different ways slag heaps have contributed to the cultural landscape in the ex-coal county while arguing that it is important when deciding on their future, that we find ways to make the environmental damage that the extraction industry caused visibly and honor the lives of the people that worked under often appalling conditions in them.

Keywords: slag-heaps, mines, extraction, remediation, pollution

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Authors: M. Graus, K. Westhoff, X. Xu

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The climate change causes a change in all aspects of society. While the expansion of renewable energies proceeds, industry could not be convinced based on general studies about the potential of demand side management to reinforce smart grid considerations in their operational business. In this article, a procedure model for a case-specific data-driven decision support for industrial energy management based on a holistic data analytics approach is presented. The model is executed on the example of the strategic decision problem, to integrate the aspect of renewable energies into industrial energy management. This question is induced due to considerations of changing the electricity contract model from a standard rate to volatile energy prices corresponding to the energy spot market which is increasingly more affected by renewable energies. The procedure model corresponds to a data analytics process consisting on a data model, analysis, simulation and optimization step. This procedure will help to quantify the potentials of sustainable production concepts based on the data from a factory. The model is validated with data from a printer in analogy to a simple production machine. The overall goal is to establish smart grid principles for industry via the transformation from knowledge-driven to data-driven decisions within manufacturing companies.

Keywords: data analytics, green production, industrial energy management, optimization, renewable energies, simulation

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Authors: Narayan Prasad Adhikari

Abstract:

In Nepal, the crop residues have often been considered as one of the potential sources of energy to cope with prevailing energy crisis. However, the lack of systematic studies about production and various other competent uses of crop production is the main obstacle to evaluate net potential of the residues for energy production. Under this background, this study aims to assess the net annual availability of crop residues for energy production by undertaking three different districts with the representation of country’s three major regions of lowland, hill, and mountain. The five major cereal crops of paddy, wheat, maize, millet, and barley are considered for the analysis. The analysis is based upon two modes of household surveys. The first mode of survey is conducted to total of 240 households to obtain key information about crop harvesting and livestock management throughout a year. Similarly, the quantification of main crops along with the respective residues on fixed land is carried out to 45 households during second mode. The range of area of such fixed land is varied from 50 to 100 m2. The measurements have been done in air dry basis. The quantity for competitive uses of respective crop residues is measured on the basis of respondents’ feedback. There are four major competitive uses of crop residues at household which are building material, burning, selling, and livestock fodder. The results reveal that the net annual available crop residues per household are 4663 kg, 2513 kg, and 1731 kg in lowland, hill, and mountain respectively. Of total production of crop residues, the shares of dedicated fodder crop residues (except maize stalk and maize cob) are 94 %, 62 %, and 89 % in lowland, hill, and mountain respectively and of which the corresponding shares of fodder are 87 %, 91 %, and 82 %. The annual percapita energy equivalent from net available crop residues in lowland, hill, and mountain are 2.49 GJ, 3.42 GJ, and 0.44 GJ which represent 30 %, 33 %, and 3 % of total annual energy consumption respectively whereas the corresponding current shares of crop residues are only 23 %, 8 %, and 1 %. Hence, even utmost exploitation of available crop residues can hardly contribute to one third of energy consumption at household level in lowland, and hill whereas this is limited to particularly negligible in mountain. Moreover, further analysis has also been done to evaluate district wise supply-demand context of dedicated fodder crop residues on the basis of presence of livestock. The high deficit of fodder crop residues in hill and mountain is observed where the issue of energy generation from these residues will be ludicrous. As a contrary, the annual production of such residues for livestock fodder in lowland meets annual demand with modest surplus even if entire fodder to be derived from the residues throughout a year and thus there seems to be further potential to utilize the surplus residues for energy generation.

Keywords: crop residues, hill, lowland, mountain

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Authors: Vidar Hepsø

Abstract:

The energy and oil companies on the Norwegian Continental shelf come from a situation where each asset control and manage their energy supply (island mode) and move towards a situation where the assets need to collaborate and coordinate energy use with others due to increased cost and scarcity of electric energy sharing the energy that is provided. Currently, several areas are electrified either with an onshore grid cable or are receiving intermittent energy from offshore wind-parks. While the onshore grid in Norway is well regulated, the offshore grid is still in the making, with several oil and gas electrification projects and offshore wind development just started. The paper will describe the shift in the mindset that comes with operating this new offshore grid. This transition process heralds an increase in collaboration across boundaries and integration of energy management across companies, businesses, technical disciplines, and engagement with stakeholders in the larger society. This transition will be described as a function of the new challenges with increased complexity of the energy mix (wind, oil/gas, hydrogen and others) coupled with increased technical and organization complexity in energy management. Organizational complexity denotes an increasing integration across boundaries, whether these boundaries are company, vendors, professional disciplines, regulatory regimes/bodies, businesses, and across numerous societal stakeholders. New practices must be developed, made legitimate and institutionalized across these boundaries. Only parts of this complexity can be mitigated technically, e.g.: by use of batteries, mixing energy systems and simulation/ forecasting tools. Many challenges must be mitigated with legitimated societal and institutionalized governance practices on many levels. Offshore electrification supports Norway’s 2030 climate targets but is also controversial since it is exploiting the larger society’s energy resources. This means that new systems and practices must also be transparent, not only for the industry and the authorities, but must also be acceptable and just for the larger society. The paper report from ongoing work in Norway, participant observation and interviews in projects and people working with offshore grid development in Norway. One case presented is the development of an offshore floating windfarm connected to two offshore installations and the second case is an offshore grid development initiative providing six installations electric energy via an onshore cable. The development of the offshore grid is analyzed using a capability platform framework, that describes the technical, competence, work process and governance capabilities that are under development in Norway. A capability platform is a ‘stack’ with the following layers: intelligent infrastructure, information and collaboration, knowledge sharing & analytics and finally business operations. The need for better collaboration and energy forecasting tools/capabilities in this stack will be given a special attention in the two use cases that are presented.

Keywords: capability platform, electrification, carbon footprint, control rooms, energy forecsting, operational model

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Authors: Djamel Saba, Fatima Zohra Laallam, Brahim Berbaoui

Abstract:

This paper presents a contribution to the design of a multi-agent for the energy management system in a hybrid energy system (SEH). The multi-agent-based energy-coordination management system (MA-ECMS) is based mainly on coordination between agents. The agents share the tasks and exchange information through communications protocols to achieve the main goal. This intelligent system can fully manage the consumption and production or simply to make proposals for action he thinks is best. The initial step is to give a presentation for the system that we want to model in order to understand all the details as much as possible. In our case, it is to implement a system for simulating a process control of energy management.

Keywords: communications protocols, control process, energy management, hybrid energy system, modelization, multi-agents system, simulation

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Authors: Si̇nem Uğuz, Yuksel Ardali

Abstract:

Nowadays rapid population growth causes a mandatory increase in consumption. As a result of production activities which meet this consumption, energy sources decrease rapidly on our world. As well as with this production activities various waste occurs. At the end of the production and accumulation of this waste need a mandatory disposal. In this context, copyrolysis of waste polyolefins were investigated. In this study for pyrolysis process, polyethylene and polyprophylene are selected as polyolefins. The pyrolysis behavior (efficiency of solid, liquid and gas production) of selected materials were examined at the different temperatures and different mixtures. Pyrolysis process was carried out at 550 °C and 600 °C without air in a fixed bed pyrolysis oven solid under the nitrogen flow to provide inertness of medium. Elemental analyses (C, H, O, N, S) of this solid and liquid (bitumen) products were made and the calorific value was calculated. The availability of liquid product as a fuel was investigated. In addition different products’ amounts formed like solid, liquid and gas at different temperatures were evaluated.

Keywords: alternative energy, elemental analysis, pyrolysis, waste reduction

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