Search results for: flood risk adaptation

Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

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Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques

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Authors: Sahar El-Achkar, Mizan Ahmad

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Poor adaptation of developmental milestones over the lifespan can significantly impact emotional experiences and Satisfaction with Life (SWL) post-retirement. Thus, it is important to understand how adaptive behaviour over the life course can predict emotional experiences. Broadly emotional experiences are either Positive Affect (PA) or Negative Affect (NA). This study sought to explore the impact of successful adaptation of developmental milestones throughout one’s life on emotional experiences and satisfaction with life following retirement. A cross-sectional self-report survey was completed by 132 Australian retirees between the ages 55 and 70 years. Three hierarchical regression models were fitted, controlling for age and gender, to predict PA, NA, and SWL. The full model predicting PA was statistically significant overall, F (8, 121) = 17.97, p < .001, account for 57% of the variability in PA. Industry/Inferiority were significantly predictive of PA. The full model predicting NA was statistically significant overall, F (8, 121) = 12.00, p < .001, accounting for 51% of the variability in NA. Age and Trust/Mistrust were significantly predictive of NA. The full model predicting NA was statistically significant overall, F (8, 121) = 12.00, p < .001, accounting for 51% of the variability in NA. Age and Trust/Mistrust were significantly predictive of NA. The full model predicting SWL, F (8, 121) = 11.05, p < .001, accounting for 45% of the variability in SWL. Trust/Mistrust and Ego Integrity/Despair were significantly predictive of SWL. A sense of industry post-retirement is important in generating PA. These results highlight that individuals presenting with adaptation and identity issues are likely to present with adjustment challenges and unpleasant emotional experiences post-retirement. This supports the importance of identifying and understanding the benefits of successful adaptation and development throughout the lifespan and its significance for the self-concept. Most importantly, the quality of lives of many may be improved, and the future risk of continued poor emotional experiences and SWL post-retirement may be mitigated. Specifically, the clinical implications of these findings are that they support the promotion of successful adaption over the life course and healthy ageing.

Keywords: adaptation, development, negative affect, positive affect, retirement, satisfaction with life

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Authors: Irene Perez Lopez

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Delta and estuary cities are spaces constantly evolving, incessantly altered by the ever-changing actions of water transformation. Strategies that incorporate comprehensive and integrated approaches to planning and design with water will play a powerful role in defining new types of flood defense. These strategies will encourage more resilient and active urban environments, allowing for new spatial and functional programs. This abstract presents the undergoing research in Newcastle, the first urbanized delta in New South Wales (Australia), and the region's second-biggest catchment and estuary. The research methodology is organized in three phases: 1) a projective cartography that analyses maps and data across the region's recorded history, identifying past and present constraints, and predicting future conditions. The cartography aids to identify worst-case scenarios, revealing the implications of land reclamation that have not considered the confronting evolution of climate change and its conflicts with inhabitation; 2) the cartographic studies identify the areas under threat and form the basis for further interdisciplinary research, complimented by community consultation, to reduce flood risk and increase urban resilience and livability; 3) a speculative or prospective phase of design with water to generate evidence-based guidelines that strengthen urban resilience of shorelines and flood prone areas.

Keywords: coastal defense, design, urban resilience, mapping

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Authors: N. Pegahfar, P. Ghafarian

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In this research, the synoptic weather conditions during the heavy flood of 10-12 January 2020 in the Sistan-va-Balouchestan Province of Iran will be analyzed. To this aim, reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) analysis data, measured data from a surface station together with satellite images from the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) have been used from 9 to 12 January 2020. Atmospheric parameters both at the lower troposphere and also at the upper part of that have been used, including absolute vorticity, wind velocity, temperature, geopotential height, relative humidity, and precipitation. Results indicated that both lower-level and upper-level currents were strong. In addition, the transport of a large amount of humidity from the Oman Sea and the Red Sea to the south and southeast of Iran (Sistan-va-Balouchestan Province) led to the vast and unexpected precipitation and then a heavy flood.

Keywords: Sistan-va-Balouchestn Province, heavy flood, synoptic, analysis data

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Authors: Maharjan Shree Kumar

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Climate change impacts are observed in all livelihood sectors primarily in agriculture and forestry. Multiple factors have influenced the climate vulnerabilities and adaptations in agricultural at the household level. This study focused on the factors affecting adaptation in agriculture in Madi and Deukhuri valleys of Central and Western Nepal. The systematic random sampling technique was applied to select 154 households in Madi and 150 households in Deukhuri. The main purpose of the study was to analyze the socio-economic factors that either influence or restrain the farmers’ adaptation to climate change at the household level by applying the linear probability model. Based on the analysis, it is revealed that crop diversity, education, training and total land holding (acre) were positively significant for adaptation choices the study sites. Rest of the variables were not significant though indicated positive as expected except age, occupation, ethnicity, family size, and access to credit.

Keywords: adaptation, agriculture, climate, factors, Nepal

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Authors: Habib Abida, Noura Dahri

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Flash floods are among the most serious natural hazards that have disastrous environmental and human impacts. They are associated with exceptional rain events, characterized by short durations, very high intensities, rapid flows and small spatial extent. Flash floods happen very suddenly and are difficult to forecast. They generally cause damage to agricultural crops and property, infrastructures, and may even result in the loss of human lives. The city of Gabes (South-eastern Tunisia) has been exposed to numerous damaging floods because of its mild topography, clay soil, high urbanization rate and erratic rainfall distribution. The risks associated with this situation are expected to increase further in the future because of climate change, deemed responsible for the increase of the frequency and the severity of this natural hazard. Recently, exceptional events hit Gabes City causing death and major property losses. A major flooding event hit the region on June 2nd, 2014, causing human deaths and major material losses. It resulted in the stagnation of storm water in the numerous low zones of the study area, endangering thereby human health and causing disastrous environmental impacts. The characterization of flood risk in Gabes Watershed (South-eastern Tunisia) is considered an important step for flood management. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method coupled with Monte Carlo simulation and geographic information system were applied to delineate and characterize flood areas. A spatial database was developed based on geological map, digital elevation model, land use, and rainfall data in order to evaluate the different factors susceptible to affect flood analysis. Results obtained were validated by remote sensing data for the zones that showed very high flood hazard during the extreme rainfall event of June 2014 that hit the study basin. Moreover, a survey was conducted from different areas of the city in order to understand and explore the different causes of this disaster, its extent and its consequences.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, flash floods, Gabes, remote sensing, Tunisia

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Authors: S. Chuenchooklin, S. Taweepong, U. Pangnakorn

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This research was conducted in the Mae Sot Watershed whereas located in the Moei River Basin at the Upper Salween River Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. The Mae Sot Municipality is the largest urbanized in Tak Province and situated in the midstream of the Mae Sot Watershed. It usually faces flash flood problem after heavy rain due to poor flood management has been reported since economic rapidly bloom up in recently years. Its catchment can be classified as ungauged basin with lack of rainfall data and no any stream gaging station was reported. It was attached by most severely flood event in 2013 as the worst studied case for those all communities in this municipality. Moreover, other problems are also faced in this watershed such shortage water supply for domestic consumption and agriculture utilizations including deterioration of water quality and landslide as well. The research aimed to increase capability building and strengthening the participation of those local community leaders and related agencies to conduct better water management in urban area was started by mean of the data collection and illustration of appropriated application of some short period rainfall forecasting model as the aim for better flood relief plan and management through the hydrologic model system and river analysis system programs. The authors intended to apply the global rainfall data via the integrated data viewer (IDV) program from the Unidata with the aim for rainfall forecasting in short period of 7 - 10 days in advance during rainy season instead of real time record. The IDV product can be present in advance period of rainfall with time step of 3 - 6 hours was introduced to the communities. The result can be used to input to either the hydrologic modeling system model (HEC-HMS) or the soil water assessment tool model (SWAT) for synthesizing flood hydrographs and use for flood forecasting as well. The authors applied the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) to present flood flow behaviors in the reach of the Mae Sot stream via the downtown of the Mae Sot City as flood extents as water surface level at every cross-sectional profiles of the stream. Both models of HMS and RAS were tested in 2013 with observed rainfall and inflow-outflow data from the Mae Sot Dam. The result of HMS showed fit to the observed data at dam and applied at upstream boundary discharge to RAS in order to simulate flood extents and tested in the field, and the result found satisfied. The result of IDV’s rainfall forecast data was compared to observed data and found fair. However, it is an appropriate tool to use in the ungauged catchment to use with flood hydrograph and river analysis models for future efficient flood relief plan and management.

Keywords: global rainfall, flood forecast, hydrologic modeling system, river analysis system

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Authors: Duran Fiack, Jeremy Cumberbatch, Michael Sutherland, Nadine Zerphey

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Civic leaders have increasingly relied upon local climate adaptation plans to identify vulnerabilities, prioritize goals, and implement actions in order to prepare cities for the present and projected effects of global climate change. The concept of sustainability is central to these efforts, as climate adaptation discussions are often framed within the context of economic resilience, environmental protection, and the distribution of climate change impacts across various socioeconomic groups. For urban centers, the climate change issue presents unique challenges for each of these dimensions; however, its potential impacts on marginalized populations are extensive. This study draws from the ‘just sustainabilities’ framework to perform a qualitative analysis of climate adaptation plans prepared by 22 of the 100 largest U.S. cities and examine whether, and to what extent, such initiatives prioritize social equity improvements. Past research has found that the integration of sustainability in urban policy and planning often produces outcomes that favor environmental and economic objectives over social equity improvements. We find that social equity is a particularly prominent theme in local-level climate adaptation efforts, relative to environmental quality and economic development. The findings contribute to the literature on climate adaptation and sustainability within the urban context and offer practical insight for local-level stakeholders concerning potential obstacles and opportunities for the integration of social equity initiatives into climate adaptation planning. Given the likelihood that climate changes will continue to impose unique challenges for marginalized communities in urban areas, advancing our understanding of how social equity concerns are integrated into adaptation efforts is likely to become an increasingly critical area of inquiry.

Keywords: climate adaptation plan, climate change, social equity, sustainability

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Authors: Hotlan Siagian, Hatane Semuel, Wilma Laura Sahetapy

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This study aims at examining the effect of market orientation on marketing performance through product adaptation strategy. The population of the research is domestic leather craft companies located in five regions, the center of the leather craft industry in Indonesia, i.e., Central Java, East Java, South Sulawesi, Bali, and West Kalimantan. The respondent consists of a manager level from each company. Data collection used a questionnaire designed with five-item Likert scale. Collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique with SmartPLS software version 3.0 to examine the hypotheses. The result of the study shows that all hypotheses are supported. Market orientation affects marketing performance. Market orientation affects product adaptation strategy. Product adaptation strategy influences the marketing performance. The research also has revealed the main finding that product adaptation strategy contributes to a mediating role in the market orientation strategy and marketing performance relationship. The leather craft companies in Indonesia, therefore, may refer to this result in improving their marketing performance.

Keywords: leather craft industry, market orientation, marketing performance, product adaptation strategy

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Authors: Rabih Ghostine, Craig Kapfer, Viswanathan Kannan, Ibrahim Hoteit

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Urban flooding resulting from a sudden release of water due to dam-break or excessive rainfall is a serious threatening environment hazard, which causes loss of human life and large economic losses. Anticipating floods before they occur could minimize human and economic losses through the implementation of appropriate protection, provision, and rescue plans. This work reports on the numerical modelling of flash flood propagation in urban areas after an excessive rainfall event or dam-break. A two-dimensional (2D) depth-averaged shallow water model is used with a refined unstructured grid of triangles for representing the urban area topography. The 2D shallow water equations are solved using a second-order well-balanced discontinuous Galerkin scheme. Theoretical test case and three flood events are described to demonstrate the potential benefits of the scheme: (i) wetting and drying in a parabolic basin (ii) flash flood over a physical model of the urbanized Toce River valley in Italy; (iii) wave propagation on the Reyran river valley in consequence of the Malpasset dam-break in 1959 (France); and (iv) dam-break flood in October 1982 at the town of Sumacarcel (Spain). The capability of the scheme is also verified against alternative models. Computational results compare well with recorded data and show that the scheme is at least as efficient as comparable second-order finite volume schemes, with notable efficiency speedup due to parallelization.

Keywords: dam-break, discontinuous Galerkin scheme, flood modeling, shallow water equations

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Authors: Hj Mohd Sidek bin Hj Mohd Yusof

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More than 1.5 billion people around the world are adversely affected by floods. Floods account for about a third of all natural catastrophes, cause more than half of all fatalities and are responsible for a third of overall economic loss around the world. Giving advanced warning of impending disasters can reduce or even avoid the number of deaths, social and economic hardships that are so commonly reported after the event. Integrated catchment management recognizes that it is not practical or viable to provide structural measures that will keep floodwater away from the community and their property. Non-structural measures are therefore required to assist the community to cope when flooding occurs which exceeds the capacity of the structural measures. Non-structural measures may need to be used to influence the way land is used or buildings are constructed, or they may be used to improve the community’s preparedness and response to flooding. The development and implementation of non-structural measures may be guided and encouraged by policy and legislation, or through voluntary action by the community based on knowledge gained from public education programs. There is a range of non-structural measures that can be used for flood hazard mitigation which can be the use measures includes policies and rules applied by government to regulate the kinds of activities that are carried out in various flood-prone areas, including minimum floor levels and the type of development approved. Voluntary actions taken by the authorities and by the community living and working on the flood plain to lessen flooding effects on themselves and their properties including monitoring land use changes, monitoring and investigating the effects of bush / forest clearing in the catchment and providing relevant flood related information to the community. Response modification measures may include: flood warning system, flood education, community awareness and readiness, evacuation arrangements and recovery plan. A Civil Defense Emergency Management needs to be established for Brunei Darussalam in order to plan, co-ordinate and undertake flood emergency management. This responsibility may be taken by the Ministry of Home Affairs, Brunei Darussalam who is already responsible for Fire Fighting and Rescue services. Several pieces of legislation and planning instruments are in place to assist flood management, particularly: flood warning system, flood education Community awareness and readiness, evacuation arrangements and recovery plan.

Keywords: RTB, radio television brunei, DDMC, district disaster management center, FIR, flood incidence report, PWD, public works department

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Authors: Adnan F. Sheikh, Fayaz A. Mir

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After the recent devastating flood in Kashmir in 2014, dredging of the local water bodies, especially Jhelum River has become a priority for the government. Local government under the project name of 'Comprehensive Flood Management Programme' plans to undertake an increase in discharge of existing flood channels by removal of encroachments and acquisition of additional land, dredging and other works of the water bodies. The total quantity of soil to be dredged will be 16.15 lac cumecs. Dredged soil is a major component that would result from the project which requires disposal/utilization. This study analyses the effect of cement and sand on the engineering properties of soil. The tests were conducted with variable additions of sand (10%, 20% and 30%), whereas cement was added at 12%. Samples with following compositions: soil-cement (12%) and soil-sand (30%) were tested as well. Laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the engineering characteristics of soil, i.e., compaction, strength, and CBR characteristics. The strength characteristics of the soil were determined by unconfined compressive strength test and direct shear test. Unconfined compressive strength of the soil was tested immediately and for a curing period of seven days. CBR test was performed for unsoaked, soaked (worst condition- 4 days) and cured (4 days) samples.

Keywords: comprehensive flood management programme, dredge soil, strength characteristics, flood

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Authors: Abderrahim Siam, Ramdane Maamri, Zaidi Sahnoun

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The development of adaptive user interfaces (UI) presents for a long time an important research area in which researcher attempt to call upon the full resources and skills of several disciplines. The adaptive UI community holds a thorough knowledge regarding the adaptation of UIs with users and with contexts of use. Several solutions, models, formalisms, techniques, and mechanisms were proposed to develop adaptive UI. In this paper, we propose an approach based on the fuzzy set theory for modeling the concept of the appropriateness of different solutions of UI adaptation with different situations for which interactive systems have to adapt their UIs.

Keywords: adaptive user interfaces, adaptation solution’s appropriateness, fuzzy sets

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Authors: Soumita Banerjee

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The State of West Bengal is mostly watered by innumerable rivers, and they are different in nature in both the northern and the southern part of the state. The southern part of West Bengal is mainly drained with the river Bhagirathi-Hooghly, and its major distributaries and tributaries have divided this major river basin into many subparts like the Ichamati-Bidyadhari, Pagla-Bansloi, Mayurakshi-Babla, Ajay, Damodar, Kangsabati Sub-basin to name a few. These rivers basically drain the Districts of Bankura, Burdwan, Hooghly, Nadia and Purulia, Birbhum, Midnapore, Murshidabad, North 24-Parganas, Kolkata, Howrah and South 24-Parganas. West Bengal has a huge number of flood-prone blocks in the southern part of the state of West Bengal, the responsible factors for flood situation are the shape and size of the catchment area, its steep gradient starting from plateau to flat terrain, the river bank erosion and its siltation, tidal condition especially in the lower Ganga Basin and very low maintenance of the embankments which are mostly used as communication links. Along with these factors, DVC (Damodar Valley Corporation) plays an important role in the generation (with the release of water) and controlling the flood situation. This year the whole Gangetic West Bengal is being flooded due to high intensity and long duration rainfall, and the release of water from the Durgapur Barrage As most of the rivers are interstate in nature at times floods also take place with release of water from the dams of the neighbouring states like Jharkhand. Other than Embankments, there is no such structural measures for combatting flood in West Bengal. This paper tries to analyse the reasons behind the flood situation this year especially with the help of climatic data collected from the Indian Metrological Department, flood related data from the Irrigation and Waterways Department, West Bengal and GPM (General Precipitation Measurement) data for rainfall analysis. Based on the threshold value derived from the calculation of the past available flood data, it is possible to predict the flood events which may occur in the near future and with the help of social media it can be spread out within a very short span of time to aware the mass. On a larger or a governmental scale, heightening the settlements situated on the either banks of the river can yield a better result than building up embankments.

Keywords: dam failure, embankments, flood, rainfall

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Authors: Mohammad Shoraka, Raulina Wojtkiewicz, Karthik Ramanathan

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Following the devastating summer 2021 floods in Germany, catastrophe modelers realized that hazard parameters, such as flow velocity, flood duration, and debris flow, play a significant role in capturing the overall damage potential of such events. Accounting for the location-specific static depth as the only hazard intensity metric may lead to a substantial underestimation of the vulnerability of building stock and, eventually, the loss potential of such catastrophic events. As the flow velocity increases, the hydrodynamic forces acting on various building components are amplified. Longer flood duration leads to water permeating porous components, incurring additional cleanup costs that contribute to an overall increase in damage. Debris flow possesses the power to erode extensive sections of buildings, thus substantially augmenting the extent of losses. This paper introduces four flow velocity classes, ranging from no flow velocity to major velocity, along with two flood duration classes: short and long, in estimating the vulnerability of the building stock. Additionally, the study examines the impact of the presence of debris flow and its role in exacerbating flood damage. The paper delves into the effects of each of these parameters on building component damageability and their collective impact on the overall building vulnerability.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, building vulnerability, hazard parameters, component damage function

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Authors: G. Lei, P. C. Dong, X. Q. Cen, S. Y. Mo

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One of the most significant parameters, describing the effect of water flooding in porous media, is flood-response time, and it is an important index in oilfield development. The responding time in low permeability reservoir is usually calculated by the method of stable state successive substitution neglecting the effect of medium deformation. Numerous studies show that the media deformation has an important impact on the development for low permeability reservoirs and can not be neglected. On the base of streamline tube model, we developed a method to interpret responding time with medium deformation factor. The results show that: the media deformation factor, threshold pressure gradient and well spacing have a significant effect on the flood response time. The greater the media deformation factor, threshold pressure gradient or well spacing is, the lower the flood response time is. The responding time of different streamlines varies. As the angle with the main streamline increases, the water flooding response time delays as a "parabola" shape.

Keywords: low permeability, flood-response time, threshold pressure gradient, medium deformation

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Authors: Said Moqeem Sadat, Saito Takahiro, Inuzuka Norikazu, Sugiyama Ikuo

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Kabul city is the capital of Afghanistan with a population of about 4.0 million in 2009 and 6.5 million in 2025. It is geographically located in a narrow plain valley along the Kabul River and is surrounded by high mountains. Due to its sharp geological condition, the city has been suffering from floods caused by storm water and snow melting water in the rainy season. Meanwhile, potable water resources are becoming a critical issue as the underground water table is decreasing falling rapidly due to domestic usage, industrial and agricultural activities usage especially in the dry season. This paper focuses on flood water management in Kabul including suburban agricultural area considering not only for flood protection but also: 1. To reserve the quality underground water for the future population growth. 2. To irrigate farming area in dry season using storm water ponds in rainy season. 3. To discharge city contaminated flood water to the downstream safely using existing channels/new pipes. Cost and benefit is considered in this study to find out a suitable flood protection method both in rural area and city center from a view point of 1 to 3 mentioned above. In this analysis, cost mainly consists of lost opportunity to develop lands due to flood ponds in addition to construction and maintenance one including connecting channels for water collecting/discharging. Benefit mainly consists of damage reduction of flood loss due to counter measures (this is corresponding cost) in addition to the contribution to agricultural crops. As far as reservation of the ground water for the future city growth is concerned, future demand and supply are compared in case that the pumping amount is limited by this irrigation system.

Keywords: cost-benefit, hydrological modeling, water management, water quality

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Authors: A. V. Dolzhikova

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The article deals with the problems of labour migration in the Russian Federation in the context of Russia's national security, provides the typology of migrants residing in the territory of the Russian Federation and analyzes the risk factors. The author considers the structure of migration flows and the terms of legal, economic and socio-cultural adaptation of migrants in the Russian Federation. In this connection, the status of the Russian migration legislation, the concept of the comprehensive exam in Russian as a foreign language, history of Russia and the basics of the Russian Federation legislation for foreign citizens which was introduced in Russia on January 1, 2015, are analyzed. The article discloses its role as the adaptation strategy and the factor of Russia's migration security.

Keywords: comprehensive exam, migration policy, migration legislation, Russia's national security

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Authors: Roger M. Wall, David G. Proverbs, Yamina Silva, Danny Scipion

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This paper critically reviews the outcomes of a 4 day workshop focused on building resilience to El Niño related Flood Events in northern Perú. The workshop was run jointly by Birmingham City University (BCU) in partnership with Instituto Geofísico del Perú (IGP) and was hosted by the Universidad de Piura (UDEP). The event took place in August 2018 and was funded by the Newton-Paulet fund administered by the British Council. The workshop was a response to the severe flooding experienced in Piura during the El Niño event of March 2017 which damaged over 100,000 homes and destroyed much local infrastructure including around 100 bridges. El Niño is a recurrent event and there is concern that its frequency and intensity may change in the future as a consequence of climate change. A group of 40 early career researchers and practitioners from the UK and Perú were challenged with working together across disciplines to identify key cross-cutting themes and make recommendations for building resilience to similar future events. Key themes identified on day 1 of the workshop were governance; communities; risk information; river management; urban planning; health; and infrastructure. A field study visit took place on day 2 so that attendees could gain first-hand experience of affected and displaced communities. Each of the themes was then investigated in depth on day 3 by small interdisciplinary teams drawing on their own expertise, local knowledge and the experiences of the previous day’s field trip. Teams were responsible for developing frameworks for analysis of their chosen theme and presenting their findings to the whole group. At this point, teams worked together to develop links between the different themes so that an integrated approach could be developed and presented on day 4. This paper describes the approaches taken by each team and the way in which these were integrated to form an holistic picture of the whole system. The findings highlighted the importance of risk-related information and the need for strong governance structures to enforce planning regulations and development. The structured facilitation approach proved to be very effective and it is recommended that the process be repeated with a broader group of stakeholders from across the region.

Keywords: El Niño, integrated flood risk management, Perú, structured facilitation, systems approach, resilience

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Authors: B. S. Choudri

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Introduction: Climate change is a major threat to rural livelihoods and to food security in the developing world, including Oman. The aim of this study is to provide a basis for policymakers and researchers in order to understand the impacts of climate change on agriculture and developing adaptation strategies in Oman. Methodology: The data was collected from different agricultural areas across the country with the help of a questionnaire survey among farmers, discussion with community, and observations at the field level. Results: The analysis of data collected from different areas within the country shows a shift in the sowing period of major crops and increased temperatures over recent years. Farmer community is adopting through diversification of crops, use of heat-tolerant species, and improved measures of soil and water conservation. Agriculture has been the main livelihood for most of the farmer communities in rural areas in the country. Conclusions: In order to reduce the effects of climate change at the local and farmer communities, risk reduction would be important along with an in-depth analysis of the vulnerability. Therefore, capacity building of local farmers and providing them with scientific knowledge, mainstreaming adaptation into development activities would be essential with additional funding and subsidies.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, vulnerability, adaptation

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Authors: Md Kamrul Hassan

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Adaptation interventions are the common response to manage the vulnerabilities of climate change. The nature of adaptation intervention depends on the degree of vulnerability and the capacity of a society. The coping interventions can take the form of hard adaptation – utilising technologies and capital goods like dykes, embankments, seawalls, and/or soft adaptation – engaging knowledge and information sharing, capacity building, policy and strategy development, and innovation. Hard adaptation is quite capital intensive but provides immediate relief from climate change vulnerabilities. This type of adaptation is not real development, as the investment for the adaptation cannot improve the performance – just maintain the status quo of a social or ecological system, and often lead to maladaptation in the long-term. Maladaptation creates a two-way loss for a society – interventions bring further vulnerability on top of the existing vulnerability and investment for getting rid of the consequence of interventions. Hard adaptation is popular to the vulnerable groups, but it focuses so much on the immediate solution and often ignores the environmental issues and future risks of climate change. On the other hand, soft adaptation is education oriented where vulnerable groups learn how to live with climate change impacts. Soft adaptation interventions build the capacity of vulnerable groups through training, innovation, and support, which might enhance the resilience of a system. In consideration of long-term sustainability, soft adaptation can contribute more to resilience than hard adaptation. Taking a developing society as the study context, this study aims to investigate and understand the effectiveness of the adaptation interventions of the coastal community of Sundarbans mangrove forest in Bangladesh. Applying semi-structured interviews with a range of Sundarbans stakeholders including community residents, tourism demand-supply side stakeholders, and conservation and management agencies (e.g., Government, NGOs and international agencies) and document analysis, this paper reports several key insights regarding climate change adaptation. Firstly, while adaptation interventions may offer a short-term to medium-term solution to climate change vulnerabilities, interventions need to be revised for long-term sustainability. Secondly, soft adaptation offers advantages in terms of resilience in a rapidly changing environment, as it is flexible and dynamic. Thirdly, there is a challenge to communicate to educate vulnerable groups to understand more about the future effects of hard adaptation interventions (and the potential for maladaptation). Fourthly, hard adaptation can be used if the interventions do not degrade the environmental balance and if the investment of interventions does not exceed the economic benefit of the interventions. Overall, the goal of an adaptation intervention should be to enhance the resilience of a social or ecological system so that the system can with stand present vulnerabilities and future risks. In order to be sustainable, adaptation interventions should be designed in such way that those can address vulnerabilities and risks of climate change in a long-term timeframe.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, maladaptation, resilience, Sundarbans, sustainability, vulnerability

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

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The article demonstrates on a case study how it is possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation risk identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upper-extremities musculoskeletal disorders.

Keywords: case study, upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics, risk identification

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Authors: Molakala Mourya Vardhan Reddy, Kandimala Revanth, Koduru Sumanth, Beena B. M.

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Emergency response and recovery operations are severely hampered by natural catastrophes, especially floods. Understanding post-flood scenarios is essential to disaster management because it facilitates quick evaluation and decision-making. To this end, we introduce FloodNet, a brand-new high-resolution aerial picture collection created especially for comprehending post-flood scenes. A varied collection of excellent aerial photos taken during and after flood occurrences make up FloodNet, which offers comprehensive representations of flooded landscapes, damaged infrastructure, and changed topographies. The dataset provides a thorough resource for training and assessing computer vision models designed to handle the complexity of post-flood scenarios, including a variety of environmental conditions and geographic regions. Pixel-level semantic segmentation masks are used to label the pictures in FloodNet, allowing for a more detailed examination of flood-related characteristics, including debris, water bodies, and damaged structures. Furthermore, temporal and positional metadata improve the dataset's usefulness for longitudinal research and spatiotemporal analysis. For activities like flood extent mapping, damage assessment, and infrastructure recovery projection, we provide baseline standards and evaluation metrics to promote research and development in the field of post-flood scene comprehension. By integrating FloodNet into machine learning pipelines, it will be easier to create reliable algorithms that will help politicians, urban planners, and first responders make choices both before and after floods. The goal of the FloodNet dataset is to support advances in computer vision, remote sensing, and disaster response technologies by providing a useful resource for researchers. FloodNet helps to create creative solutions for boosting communities' resilience in the face of natural catastrophes by tackling the particular problems presented by post-flood situations.

Keywords: image classification, segmentation, computer vision, nature disaster, unmanned arial vehicle(UAV), machine learning.

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Authors: Tuisem Shimrah

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One general agreement on climate change is that its causes may be local but the effects are global. Indigenous people are subscribed to “low-carbon” traditional ways of life and as such they have contributed little to causes of climate change. On the contrary they are the most adversely affected by climate change due to their dependence on surrounding rich biological wealth as a source of their livelihood, health care, entertainment and cultural activities This paper deals with the results of the investigation of various adaptation strategies adopted to combat climate change by traditional community. The result shows effective ways of application of traditional knowledge and wisdom applied by Tangkhul traditional community at local and community level in remote areas in Northeast India. Four adaptation measures are being presented in this paper.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, Northeast India, Tangkhul, traditional community

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Authors: Muhammad Afzal, Shahbaz Mushtaq, Duc-Anh-An-Vo, Kathryn Reardon Smith, Thanh Ma

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Climate change has become one of the most challenging environmental issues in the 21st century. Climate change-induced natural disasters, especially floods, are the major factors of livelihood vulnerability, impacting millions of individuals worldwide. Evaluating and mitigating the effects of floods requires an in-depth understanding of the relationship between vulnerability and livelihood capital assets. Using an integrated approach, sustainable livelihood framework, and system thinking approach, the study developed a conceptual model of a generalized livelihood system in District Rajanpur, Pakistan. The model visualizes the livelihood vulnerability system as a whole and identifies the key feedback loops likely to influence the livelihood vulnerability. The study suggests that such conceptual models provide effective communication and understanding tools to stakeholders and decision-makers to anticipate the problem and design appropriate policies. It can also serve as an evaluation technique for rural livelihood policy and identify key systematic interventions. The key finding of the study reveals that household income, health, and education are the major factors behind the livelihood vulnerability of the rural poor of District Rajanpur. The Pakistani government tried to reduce the livelihood vulnerability of the region through different income, health, and education programs, but still, many changes are required to make these programs more effective especially during the flood times. The government provided only cash to vulnerable and marginalized families through income support programs, but this study suggests that along with the cash, the government must provide seed storage facilities and access to crop insurance to the farmers. Similarly, the government should establish basic health units in villages and frequent visits of medical mobile vans should be arranged with advanced medical lab facilities during and after the flood.

Keywords: livelihood vulnerability, rural communities, flood, sustainable livelihood framework, system dynamics, Pakistan

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Authors: Pratima Pokharel

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When sewer overflow due to rainfall in urban areas, this leads to public health risks when an individual is exposed to that contaminated floodwater. Nevertheless, it is still unclear the extent to which the infections pose a risk to public health. This study analyzed reported diarrheal cases by month and age in Bangkok, Thailand. The results showed that the cases are reported higher in the wet season than in the dry season. It was also found that in Bangkok, the probability of infection with diarrheal diseases in the wet season is higher for the age group between 15 to 44. However, the probability of infection is highest for kids under 5 years, but they are not influenced by wet weather. Further, this study introduced a vulnerability that leads to health risks from urban flooding. This study has found some vulnerability variables that contribute to health risks from flooding. Thus, for vulnerability analysis, the study has chosen two variables, economic status, and age, that contribute to health risk. Assuming that the people's economic status depends on the types of houses they are living in, the study shows the spatial distribution of economic status in the vulnerability maps. The vulnerability map result shows that people living in Sukhumvit have low vulnerability to health risks with respect to the types of houses they are living in. In addition, from age the probability of infection of diarrhea was analyzed. Moreover, a field survey was carried out to validate the vulnerability of people. It showed that health vulnerability depends on economic status, income level, and education. The result depicts that people with low income and poor living conditions are more vulnerable to health risks. Further, the study also carried out 1D Hydrodynamic Advection-Dispersion modelling with 2-year rainfall events to simulate the dispersion of fecal coliform concentration in the drainage network as well as 1D/2D Hydrodynamic model to simulate the overland flow. The 1D result represents higher concentrations for dry weather flows and a large dilution of concentration on the commencement of a rainfall event, resulting in a drop of the concentration due to runoff generated after rainfall, whereas the model produced flood depth, flood duration, and fecal coliform concentration maps, which were transferred to ArcGIS to produce hazard and risk maps. In addition, the study also simulates the 5-year and 10-year rainfall simulations to show the variation in health hazards and risks. It was found that even though the hazard coverage is very high with a 10-year rainfall events among three rainfall events, the risk was observed to be the same with a 5-year and 10-year rainfall events.

Keywords: urban flooding, risk, hazard, vulnerability, health risk, framework

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Authors: Munenari Inoguchi, Keiko Tamura

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In Japan, we were suffered by earthquake, typhoon, and flood disaster in 2019. Especially, 38 of 47 prefectures were affected by typhoon #1919 occurred in October 2019. By this disaster, 99 people were dead, three people were missing, and 484 people were injured as human damage. Furthermore, 3,081 buildings were totally collapsed, 24,998 buildings were half-collapsed. Once disaster occurs, local responders have to inspect damage level of each building by themselves in order to certificate building damage for survivors for starting their life reconstruction process. At that disaster, the total number to be inspected was so high. Based on this situation, Cabinet Office of Japan approved the way to detect building damage level efficiently, that is collectively detection. However, they proposed a just guideline, and local responders had to establish the concrete and infallible method by themselves. Against this issue, we decided to establish the effective and efficient methodology to detect building damage level collectively with flood depth. Besides, we thought that the flood depth was relied on the land height, and we decided to utilize GIS (Geographic Information System) for analyzing the elevation spatially. We focused on the analyzing tool of spatial interpolation, which is utilized to survey the ground water level usually. In establishing the methodology, we considered 4 key-points: 1) how to satisfy the condition defined in the guideline approved by Cabinet Office for detecting building damage level, 2) how to satisfy survivors for the result of building damage level, 3) how to keep equitability and fairness because the detection of building damage level was executed by public institution, 4) how to reduce cost of time and human-resource because they do not have enough time and human-resource for disaster response. Then, we proposed a methodology for detecting building damage level collectively with flood depth utilizing GIS with five steps. First is to obtain the boundary of flooded area. Second is to collect the actual flood depth as sampling over flooded area. Third is to execute spatial analysis of interpolation with sampled flood depth to detect two-dimensional flood depth extent. Fourth is to divide to blocks by four categories of flood depth (non-flooded, over the floor to 100 cm, 100 cm to 180 cm and over 180 cm) following lines of roads for getting satisfaction from survivors. Fifth is to put flood depth level to each building. In Koriyama city of Fukushima prefecture, we proposed the methodology of collectively detection for building damage level as described above, and local responders decided to adopt our methodology at typhoon #1919 in 2019. Then, we and local responders detect building damage level collectively to over 1,000 buildings. We have received good feedback that the methodology was so simple, and it reduced cost of time and human-resources.

Keywords: building damage inspection, flood, geographic information system, spatial interpolation

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Authors: Dessy Pinem, Rahmadian Sembiring, Adanil Bushra

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Medan Belawan is one of the subdistricts of 21 districts in Medan. Medan Belawan Sub-district is directly adjacent to the Malacca Strait in the North. Due to its direct border with the Malacca Strait, the problem in this sub-district, which has continued for many years, is a flood of rob. In 2015, rob floods inundated Sicanang urban village, Belawan I urban village, Belawan Bahagia urban village and Bagan Deli village. The extent of inundation in the flood of rob that occurred in September 2015 reached 540, 938 ha. Rob flood is a phenomenon where the sea water is overflowing into the mainland. Rob floods can also be interpreted as a puddle of water on the coastal land that occurs when the tidal waters. So this phenomenon will inundate parts of the coastal plain or lower place of high tide sea level. Rob flood is a daily disaster faced by the residents in the district of Medan Belawan. Rob floods can happen every month and last for a week. The flood is not only the residents' houses, the flood also soaked the main road to Belawan Port reaching 50 cm. To deal with the problems caused by the flood and to prepare coastal communities to face the character of coastal areas, it is necessary to know the vulnerability of the people who are always the victims of the rob flood. Are the people of Medan Belawan sub-district, especially in the flood-affected villages, able to cope with the consequences of the floods? To answer this question, it is necessary to assess the vulnerability of the Belawan District community in the face of the flood disaster. This research is descriptive, qualitative and quantitative. Data were collected by observation, interview and questionnaires in 4 urban villages often affected by rob flood. The vulnerabilities measured are physical, economic, social, environmental, organizational and motivational vulnerabilities. For vulnerability in the physical field, the data collected is the distance of the building, floor area ratio, drainage, and building materials. For economic vulnerability, data collected are income, employment, building ownership, and insurance ownership. For the vulnerability in the social field, the data collected is education, number of family members, children, the elderly, gender, training for disasters, and how to dispose of waste. For the vulnerability in the field of organizational data collected is the existence of organizations that advocate for the victims, their policies and laws governing the handling of tidal flooding. The motivational vulnerability is seen from the information center or question and answer about the rob flood, and the existence of an evacuation plan or path to avoid disaster or reduce the victim. The results of this study indicate that most people in Medan Belawan sub-district have a high-level vulnerability in physical, economic, social, environmental, organizational and motivational fields. They have no access to economic empowerment, no insurance, no motivation to solve problems and only hope to the government, not to have organizations that support and defend them, and have physical buildings that are easily destroyed by rob floods.

Keywords: disaster, rob flood, Medan Belawan, vulnerability

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Authors: Benjamin Anabaraonye, Okafor Joachim Chukwuma, Olamire James

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The impacts of climate change are greatly felt on Nigeria’s agricultural sector which in turn affects the economy of the nation. There is an urgent need to educate farmers and fishermen in rural areas in Nigeria on climate change adaptation and mitigation for sustainable development. Through our literature and participant observation, it has been discovered that many farmers and fishermen in rural areas in Nigeria have little or no knowledge about climate change adaptation and mitigation. This paper seeks to draw the attention of policy makers in government, private sectors, non-governmental organizations and interested individuals to the need to seek for innovative ways of educating farmers and fishermen in rural areas about climate change adaptation and mitigation for global sustainability. This study also explores the effective methods of bridging the communication gaps through efficient information dissemination, intensive awareness outreach, use of climate change poems and blogs, innovative loan scheme to farmers and fishermen, etc. to help ensure that farmers and fishermen in rural areas in Nigeria are adequately educated about climate change adaptation and mitigation for global sustainability.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, farmers, fishermen

Procedia PDF Downloads 214

Authors: Mohamad Muqtada Ali Khan, Nor Ashikin Shaari, Donny Adriansyah bin Nazaruddin, Hafzan Eva Bt Mansoor

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Floods play a key role in landform evolution of an area. This process is likely to alter the topography of the earth’s surface. The present study area, Kota Bharu is very prone to floods extends from upstream of Kelantan River near Kemubu to the downstream area near Kuala Besar. These flood events which occur every year in the study area exhibit a strong bearing on river morphological set-up. In the present study, three satellite imageries of different time periods have been used to manifest the post-flood landform changes. The pre-processing of the images such as subset, geometric corrections and atmospheric corrections were carried-out using ENVI 4.5 followed by the analysis processes. Twenty sets of cross sections were plotted using software Erdas 9.2, ERDAS and ArcGis 10 for the all three images. The results show a significant change in the length of the cross section which suggest that the geomorphological processes play a key role in carving and shaping the river banks during the floods.

Keywords: flood induced, geomorphic imprints, Kelantan river, Malaysia

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