Search results for: extreme precipitation events

Authors: Basit Shahzad, Abdullatif M. Abdullatif

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Recent advancements in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and easy access to Internet have made social media the first choice for information sharing related to any important events or news. On Twitter, trend is a common feature that quantifies the level of popularity of a certain news or event. In this work, we examine the impact of Twitter trends on real world events by hypothesizing that Twitter trends have an influence on print media in Pakistan. For this, Twitter is used as a platform and Twitter trends as a base line. We first collect data from two sources (Twitter trends and print media) in the period May to August 2016. Obtained data from two sources is analyzed and it is observed that social media is significantly influencing the print media and majority of the news printed in newspaper are posted on Twitter earlier.

Keywords: twitter trends, text mining, effectiveness of trends, print media

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Fidelis E. Uwumiro, Chimaobi O. Nwevo, Favour O. Osemwota, Victory O. Okpujie, Emeka S. Obi, Omamuyovbi F. Nwoagbe, Ejiroghene Tejere, Joycelyn Adjei-Mensah, Christopher N. Ekeh, Charles T. Ogbodo

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Several risk factors associated with cardiovascular events have been identified as specific to Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD). This study endeavors to validate these CKD-specific risk factors using up-to-date national-level data, thereby highlighting the crucial significance of confirming the validity and generalizability of findings obtained from previous studies conducted on smaller patient populations. The study utilized the nationwide inpatient sample database to identify adult hospitalizations for CKD from 2016 to 2020, employing validated ICD-10-CM/PCS codes. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify both traditional and CKD-specific risk factors associated with cardiovascular events. Risk factors and cardiovascular events were defined using a combination of ICD-10-CM/PCS codes and statistical commands. Only risk factors with specific ICD-10 codes and hospitalizations with complete data were included in the study. Cardiovascular events of interest included cardiac arrhythmias, sudden cardiac death, acute heart failure, and acute coronary syndromes. Univariate and multivariate regression models were employed to evaluate the association between chronic kidney disease-specific risk factors and cardiovascular events while adjusting for the impact of traditional CV risk factors such as old age, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, inactivity, and smoking. A total of 690,375 hospitalizations for CKD were included in the analysis. The study population was predominantly male (375,564, 54.4%) and primarily received care at urban teaching hospitals (512,258, 74.2%). The mean age of the study population was 61 years (SD 0.1), and 86.7% (598,555) had a CCI of 3 or more. At least one traditional risk factor for CV events was present in 84.1% of all hospitalizations (580,605), while 65.4% (451,505) included at least one CKD-specific risk factor for CV events. The incidence of CV events in the study was as follows: acute coronary syndromes (41,422; 6%), sudden cardiac death (13,807; 2%), heart failure (404,560; 58.6%), and cardiac arrhythmias (124,267; 18%). 91.7% (113,912) of all cardiac arrhythmias were atrial fibrillations. Significant odds of cardiovascular events on multivariate analyses included: malnutrition (aOR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.06–1.13; p<0.001), post-dialytic hypotension (aOR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.26–1.42; p<0.001), thrombophilia (aOR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.29–1.65; p<0.001), sleep disorder (aOR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09–1.25; p<0.001), and post-renal transplant immunosuppressive therapy (aOR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.26–1.53; p<0.001). The study validated malnutrition, post-dialytic hypotension, thrombophilia, sleep disorders, and post-renal transplant immunosuppressive therapy, highlighting their association with increased risk for cardiovascular events in CKD patients. No significant association was observed between uremic syndrome, hyperhomocysteinemia, hyperuricemia, hypertriglyceridemia, leptin levels, carnitine deficiency, anemia, and the odds of experiencing cardiovascular events.

Keywords: cardiovascular events, cardiovascular risk factors in CKD, chronic kidney disease, nationwide inpatient sample

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Authors: Vahid Borji

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The interaction between photons and particles is a common phenomenon in nature that is discussed in order to obtain information about the environment and the conditions governing the phenomena. In the astrophysics, like others, we study these interactions to get useful knowledge and can be predict aftercoming events. One of the events is the transition of photon beam through medium with special conditions, like shocked medium. In our discussion, we have studied this situation and obtained results for different conditions that transition of photon depends on the energy of photon and distributions of electrons in medium.

Keywords: cross section, astrophysics, GRB, photon

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Authors: Clarinda Vitorino Nhangumbe, Ercília Sousa

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Weather derivatives are financial products used to cover non catastrophic weather events with a weather index as the underlying asset. The rainfall weather derivative pricing model is modeled based in the assumption that the rainfall dynamics follows Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and the partial differential equation approach is used to derive the convection-diffusion two dimensional time dependent partial differential equation, where the spatial variables are the rainfall index and rainfall depth. To compute the approximation solutions of the partial differential equation, the appropriate boundary conditions are suggested, and an explicit numerical method is proposed in order to deal efficiently with the different choices of the coefficients involved in the equation. Being an explicit numerical method, it will be conditionally stable, then the stability region of the numerical method and the order of convergence are discussed. The model is tested for real precipitation data.

Keywords: finite differences method, ornstein-uhlenbeck process, partial differential equations approach, rainfall derivatives

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Authors: Hasen Keder Edris, Ryuji Matsunaga, Toshi Yamanaka

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The issue of climate change and its impact is a major contemporary global concern. Ethiopia is one of the countries experiencing adverse climate change impact including frequent extreme weather events that are exacerbating drought and water scarcity. Due to this reason, the government of Ethiopia develops a strategic document which focuses on the climate resilience green economy. One of the major components of the strategic framework is designed to improve community adaptation capacity and mitigation of drought. For effective implementation of the strategy, identification of regions relative vulnerability to drought is vital. There is a growing tendency of applying Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing technologies for collecting information on duration and severity of drought by direct measure of the topography as well as an indirect measure of land cover. This study aims to show an application of remote sensing technology and GIS for developing drought vulnerability index by taking lowland of Ethiopia as a case study. In addition, it assesses integrated Information Communication Technology (ICT) potential of Ethiopia lowland and proposes integrated solution. Satellite data is used to detect the beginning of the drought. The severity of drought risk prone areas of livestock keeping pastoral is analyzed through normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and ten years rainfall data. The change from the existing and average SPOT NDVI and vegetation condition index is used to identify the onset of drought and potential risks. Secondary data is used to analyze geographical coverage of mobile and internet usage in the region. For decades, the government of Ethiopia introduced some technologies and approach to overcoming climate change related problems. However, lack of access to information and inadequate technical support for the pastoral area remains a major challenge. In conventional business as usual approach, the lowland pastorals continue facing a number of challenges. The result indicated that 80% of the region face frequent drought occurrence and out of this 60% of pastoral area faces high drought risk. On the other hand, the target area mobile phone and internet coverage is rapidly growing. One of identified ICT solution enabler technology is telecom center which covers 98% of the region. It was possible to identify the frequently affected area and potential drought risk using the NDVI remote-sensing data analyses. We also found that ICT can play an important role in mitigating climate change challenge. Hence, there is a need to strengthen implementation efforts of climate change adaptation through integrated Remote Sensing and web based information dissemination and mobile alert of extreme events.

Keywords: climate changes, ICT, pastoral, remote sensing

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Authors: I. V. Kuzminov

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The research is dedicated to the issue of Bosporus evolution and its key role in the Black Sea forming. Up till nowadays, there is no distinct picture of the historical and geographical events of the last 10 thousand years on the territory from Altai up to the Alps. The present article is an attempt to clarify and, moreover, link the presented version to the historical and climatic events of this period. The paper is a development of the basic idea stated in "Hypothesis on the Black Sea origin". The succession of events in dynamics is offered in this article. In the article, it is shown that fluctuation of the level of the World Ocean is a mirror of the basic events connected with the climate on the Earth on the one hand and hydraulic processes on the other hand. In the present article, it is come out with the assumption that at the formation of passage, there were some cycles of change in a level of the World ocean. The phase of the beginning of climate warming is characterized by an increase in the level of inland water bodies on the way of meltwater runoff and an increase in the World ocean level. The end of the warming phase is characterized by the continuation of a rise in the level of the World ocean and the drying up of inland water bodies deprived of meltwater replenishment.

Keywords: Bosporus, Ryan-Pitman hypothesis, fluctuations of the World Ocean level, the Paratethys Sea, catastrophic breakthrough

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Authors: Sulamain Alharbi, Mohammad Khiyami, Reda Amasha, Bassam Al-Johny, Hesham Khalil, Milton Wainwrigh

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Nematodes, Rotifers and Tardigrades (NRT) are extreme-tolerant invertebrates which can survive long periods of stasis brought about by extreme drying and cold. They can also resist the effects of UV radiation, and as a result could act as vehicles for the panspermic transfer of microorganisms. Here we show that NRT contain a variety of bacteria and fungi within their bodies in which environment they could be protected from the extremes of the space and released into new cosmic environments. Diatoms were also shown to contain viable alga and Escherichia coli and so could also act as panspermic vehicles for the transfer of these and perhaps other microbes through space. Although not studied here, NRT, and possibly diatoms, also carry protozoa and viruses within their bodies and could act as vehicles for the panspermic transfer of an even wider range of microbes than shown here.

Keywords: extromophiles, diatoms, panspermia, survival in space

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Authors: Kaniz Roksana, Aluthgun Hewage Shaini, Cheng Zhu

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Lead is environmentally hazardous because it may persist for a long time in soil, water, and air, and it can travel large distances when carried by wind or water. Lead is toxic to many different species of organisms and has the potential to disrupt ecosystem stability. Moreover, lead can contaminate crops and livestock, which can then have an adverse effect on human health. This study was conducted to use the enzyme-induced calcium carbonate precipitation (EICP) technique from soybean crude extract urease along coconut fiber derived biochar’s (CFB) to bioremediate lead. To study the desorption rates of heavy metals from the soil, lead (Pb) was added to the soil at load ratios of 50 and 100 mg/kg. There were five separate treatment soil columns created: control sample, only CFB, only EICP, EICP with 2% (w/w) CFB, and EICP with 4% (w/w) CFB. Laboratory scale experiment demonstrates significant lead removal from soil. The amount of CaCO₃ precipitated in the soil was measured using a gravimetric acid digestion test, which related heavy metal desorption to the amount of precipitated calcium carbonate. These findings were validated using a scanning electron microscope (SEM), which revealed calcium carbonate and lead coprecipitation. As a result, the study reveals that the EICP technique, in conjunction with coconut fiber biochar, could be an efficient alternative in the remediation of heavy metal ion-contaminated soils.

Keywords: enzyme induced calcium carbonate precipitation (EICP), coconut fiber derived biochar’s (CFB), bioremediation, heavy metal

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Authors: Jasmin H. Kwon , Thomas M. Brinthaupt

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There is a general lack of consumer behavior research on seasonal shopping events. Studying these kinds of events is interesting and important for several reasons. First, global shopping opportunities have implications for cross-cultural shopping events and effects on seasonal events in other countries. Second, seasonal shopping events are subject to economic conditions and may wane in popularity, especially with e-commerce options. Third, retailers can expand the success of their seasonal shopping events by taking advantage of cross-cultural opportunities. Fourth, it is interesting to consider how consumers from other countries might take advantage of different countries’ seasonal shopping events. Many countries have seasonal shopping events such as Black Friday. Research on these kinds of events can lead to the identification of cross-cultural similarities and differences in consumer behavior. We compared shopping motivations of college students who did (n=36) and did not (n=81) shop on Cyber Monday. The results showed that the groups did not differ significantly on any of the shopping motivation subscales. The Cyber Monday shoppers reported being significantly more likely to agree than disagree that their online shopping experience was enjoyable and exciting. They were more likely to disagree than agree that their experience was overwhelming. In addition, they agreed that they shopped only for deals, purchased the exact items they wanted, and thought that their efforts were worth it. Finally, they intended to shop again at next year’s Cyber Monday. It appears that there are many positive aspects to online seasonal shopping, independent of one’s typical shopping motivations. Different countries have seasonal events similar to the Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping holiday (e.g., Boxing Day, Fukubukuro, China’s Singles Day). In Korea, there is increasing interest in taking advantage of U.S. Black Friday and Cyber Monday opportunities. Government officials are interested in adapting the U.S. holiday to Korean retailers, essentially recreating the Black Friday/Cyber Monday holiday there. Similarly, the Japanese Fukubukuro ('Lucky Bag') holiday is being adapted by other countries such as Korea and the U.S. International shipping support companies are also emerging that help customers to identify and receive products from other countries. U.S. department stores also provide free shipping on international orders for certain items. As these structural changes are occurring and new options for global shopping emerge, the need to understand the role of shoppers’ motivations becomes even more important. For example, the Cyber Monday results are particularly relevant to the new landscape with e-commerce and cross-cultural opportunities, since many of these events involve e-commerce. Within today’s global market, physical location of a retail store is no longer a limitation to growing one’s market share. From a consumer perspective, it is important to investigate how shopping motivations are related to e-commerce seasonal events. From a retail perspective, understanding the shopping motivations of international customers would help retailers to expand and better tailor their seasonal shopping events beyond the boundaries of their own countries. From a collaborative perspective, research on this topic can include interdisciplinary researchers, including those from fashion merchandising, marketing, retailing, and psychology.

Keywords: Black Friday, cross-cultural research, Cyber Monday, seasonal shopping behavior

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Authors: Petra Balla, Gabor Manhertz, Akos Antal

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Nowadays spinal deformities are very frequent problems among teenagers. Scheuermann disease is a one dimensional deformity of the spine, but it has prevalence over 11% of the children. A traditional technology, the moiré method was used by us for screening and diagnosing this type of spinal deformity. A LabVIEW program has been developed to evaluate the moiré pictures of patients with Scheuermann disease. Two different solutions were tested in this computer program, the extreme and the inflexion point calculation methods. Effects using these methods were compared and according to the results both solutions seemed to be appropriate. Statistical results showed better efficiency in case of the extreme search method where the average difference was only 6,09⁰.

Keywords: spinal deformity, picture evaluation, Moiré method, Scheuermann disease, curve detection, Moiré topography

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Authors: Khadeeja Munawar, Shamsul Haque

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We examined the plausibility of transition theory suggesting that memories of transitional events, which give rise to a significant and persistent change in the fabric of daily life, are organized around the historically defined autobiographical periods (H-DAPs). 141 Pakistani older adults retrieved 10 autobiographical memories (AMs) each to 10 cue words. As the history of Pakistan is dominated by various political and nationwide transitional events, it was expected that the participants would recall memories with H-DAPs references. The content analysis revealed that 0.7% of memories had H-DAP references and 0.4% memories mentioned major transitional events such as War/Natural Disaster. There was a vivid reminiscence bump between 10 - 20 years of age in lifespan distribution of AMs. There were 67.9% social-focused AMs. Significantly more self-focused memories were reported by individuals who endorsed themselves as conservatives. Only a few H-DAPs were reported, although the history of Pakistan was dominated by numerous political, historical and nationwide transitional events. Memories within and outside of the bump period were mostly positive. The participants rarely used historical/political or nationwide significant events or periods to date the memories elicited. The intense and nationwide (as well as region-wise) significant historical/political events spawned across decades in the lives of participants of the present study but these events did not produce H-DAPs. The findings contradicted the previous studies on H-DAPs and transition theory. The dominance of social-focused AMs in the present study is in line with the past studies comparing the memories of collectivist and individualist cultures (i.e., European Americans vs. Asian, African and Latin-American cultures). The past empirical evidence shows that conservative values and beliefs are adopted as a coping strategy to feel secure in the face of danger when future is dominated with uncertainty and to connect to likeminded others. In the present study, conservative political ideology is somehow assisting the participants in living a stable life midst of their complex social worlds. The reminiscence bump, as well as dominance of positive memories within and outside the bump period, are in line with the narrative/identity account which states that the events and experiences during adolescence and early adulthood assimilate into a person’s lifelong narratives. Hence these events are used as identity markers and are more easily recalled later in life. Also, according to socioemotional theory and the positivity effect, the participants evaluated past events more positively as they grow up and the intensity of negative emotions decreased with time.

Keywords: autobiographical memory, historically defined autobiographical periods, narrative/identity account, Pakistan, reminiscence bump, SMS framework, transition theory

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Authors: Milica Lazic, Jovana Jestrovic

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The aim of this research is to examine moderating role of positive and negative affect, defined as traits, in relationship between a number of stressful life events to which an individual is exposed and life satisfaction. The tendency to experience positive and negative emotions is considered as relatively independent, and life satisfaction depends on presence and intensity of emotions of different valence. However, the role of positive and negative affect can be much more complex. It can change the direction and/or intensity of correlation between a number of stressful life events and life satisfaction. Thus, this question is important for two reasons, (I) better comprehension of inconsistent result of correlation intensity between stressful events and life satisfaction (II) verification on what conditions positive and negative affect have a protective role, and on what conditions the positive and/or negative affect is vulnerability factor. Longitudinal data were collected in two waves from 660 adolescents. Firstly, participants completed the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule. A year later, Life events questionnaire, which measures the number of stressful events in the past six months and Satisfaction with Life Scale were administered. The data were analyzed using hierarchical regression analyses: three-way interaction. The results show that number of life events, positive and negative effect contribute to the level of life satisfaction. The check of moderation role shows the significant three-way interaction of number of life event, and both, positive and negative affect. Individuals who report high level of positive affect, estimate to be moderate to highly satisfied with their lives, regardless of number of stressors to which they are exposed and also how often they experience negative emotions. Individuals, who often experience negative emotions and rarely positive, report the lowest level of life satisfaction. It doesn't change despite the number of stressors they were exposed to. Individuals who report that rarely experience not only positive than also negative emotions estimate different level of life satisfaction depending on number of stressors they were exposed to. Under the influence of numerous stressors, their level of life satisfaction is low, and it's equal to life satisfaction level of individuals who often experience negative and rarely positive emotions. The result of this research shows that tendency to often experience positive emotions is the protective factor in situation when individuals are exposed to high number of stressors. On the other hand, tendency to rarely experience positive emotions present vulnerability factor. Conclusions and practical implications are further discussed.

Keywords: life events, life satisfaction, subjective well-being, positive and negative affect

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Authors: Fawehinmi Olabisi Alaba, O. R. Adeniyi

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Farming households faces lots of disaster which contribute to endemic poverty. Anticipated increases in extreme weather events will exacerbate this. Primary data was administered to farming household using multi-stage random sampling technique. The result of the analysis shows that majority of the respondents (69.9%) are male, have mean household size, years of formal education and age of 5±1.14, 6±3.41, and 51.06±10.43 respectively. The major (48.9%) type of disaster experienced is flooding. Major coping mechanism adopted is sourcing for support from family and friends. Age, education, experience, access to extension agent, and mitigation control method contribute significantly to vulnerability to disaster. The major adaptation method (62.3%) is construction of drainage. The study revealed that the coping mechanisms employed may become less effective as increasingly fragile livelihood systems struggle to withstand disaster shocks. Thus there is need for training of the farmers on measures to adapt to mitigate the shock from disasters.

Keywords: adaptation, disasters, flooding, vulnerability

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Authors: Anas Al-Ali, Mohammed Suleiman, Ayman Hussein

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Sulfur is an important element has many practical applications in present as nanoparticles. Nanosize sulfur particles also have many important applications like in pharmaceuticals, medicine, syn-thesis of nano-composites for lithium batteries, modification of carbon nano tubes. Different methods were used for nano-sized particle synthesis; among those, chemical precipitation, electrochemical method, micro emulsion technique, composing of oil, surfactant, co-surfactant, aqueous phases with the specific compositions and ultrasonic treatment of sulfur-cystine solution. In this work Sulfur nanoparticles (S NPs) were prepared by a quick precipitation method with and without using a surfactant to stabilize the formed S NPs. The synthesized S NPs were characterized by XRD, SEM and TEM in order to confirm their sizes and structures.Application of nanotechnology is suggested for diag-nosis and treatment of cancer. The anticancer activity of the prepared S NPs has been tested on various types of cancer cell clones including leukemia, kidney and colon cancers.

Keywords: sulfur nanoparticles (S-NPs), TEM, SEM, XRD

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Authors: Van Trieu, Shouhuai Xu, Yusheng Feng

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Tracking attack trajectories can be difficult, with limited information about the nature of the attack. Even more difficult as attack information is collected by Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) due to the current IDSs having some limitations in identifying malicious and anomalous traffic. Moreover, IDSs only point out the suspicious events but do not show how the events relate to each other or which event possibly cause the other event to happen. Because of this, it is important to investigate new methods capable of performing the tracking of attack trajectories task quickly with less attack information and dependency on IDSs, in order to prioritize actions during incident responses. This paper proposes a two-level graph causality framework for tracking attack trajectories in internet networks by leveraging observable malicious behaviors to detect what is the most probable attack events that can cause another event to occur in the system. Technically, given the time series of malicious events, the framework extracts events with useful features, such as attack time and port number, to apply to the conditional independent tests to detect the relationship between attack events. Using the academic datasets collected by IDSs, experimental results show that the framework can quickly detect the causal pairs that offer meaningful insights into the nature of the internet network, given only reasonable restrictions on network size and structure. Without the framework’s guidance, these insights would not be able to discover by the existing tools, such as IDSs. It would cost expert human analysts a significant time if possible. The computational results from the proposed two-level graph network model reveal the obvious pattern and trends. In fact, more than 85% of causal pairs have the average time difference between the causal and effect events in both computed and observed data within 5 minutes. This result can be used as a preventive measure against future attacks. Although the forecast may be short, from 0.24 seconds to 5 minutes, it is long enough to be used to design a prevention protocol to block those attacks.

Keywords: causality, multilevel graph, cyber-attacks, prediction

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Authors: Anas Al-Ali, Mohammed Suleiman, Ayman Hussein

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Sulfur is an important element has many practical applications in present as nanoparticles. Nanosize sulfur particles also have many important applications like in pharmaceuticals, medicine, synthesis of nanocomposites for lithium batteries, modification of carbon nanotubes. Different methods were used for nano-sized particle synthesis; among those, chemical precipitation, electrochemical method, micro-emulsion technique, composing of oil, surfactant, co-surfactant, aqueous phases with the specific compositions and ultrasonic treatment of sulfur-cystine solution. In this work, sulfur nanoparticles (S NPs) were prepared by a quick precipitation method with and without using a surfactant to stabilize the formed S NPs. The synthesized S NPs were characterized by XRD, SEM, and TEM in order to confirm their sizes and structures. Application of nanotechnology is suggested for diagnosis and treatment of cancer. The anticancer activity of the prepared S NPs has been tested on various types of cancer cell clones including leukemia, kidney and colon cancers.

Keywords: sulfur nanoparticles (S-NPs), TEM, SEM, anti cancer activity, XRD

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Authors: Nokwethaba Makhanya, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Piotr Wolski

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Climate change possibly intensifies hydrological droughts and reduces water availability in river basins. Despite this, most research on climate change effects in southern Africa has focused exclusively on meteorological droughts. This thesis projects the potential impact of climate change on the future characteristics of hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). The study uses regional climate model (RCM) measurements (from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, CORDEX) and a combination of hydrological simulations (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model, SWAT+) to predict the impacts at four global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃, and 3.0℃) under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated with a streamflow dataset observed over the basin, and the sensitivity of model parameters was investigated. The performance of the SWAT+LRB model was verified using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have been used to detect meteorological droughts. The Soil Water Index (SSI) has been used to define agricultural drought, while the Water Yield Drought Index (WYLDI), the Surface Run-off Index (SRI), and the Streamflow Index (SFI) have been used to characterise hydrological drought. The performance of the SWAT+ model simulations over LRB is sensitive to the parameters CN2 (initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II) and ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor). The best simulation generally performed better during the calibration period than the validation period. In calibration and validation periods, NSE is ≤ 0.8, while PBIAS is ≥ ﹣80.3%, RMSE ≥ 11.2 m³/s, and R² ≤ 0.9. The simulations project a future increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration over the basin, but they do not project a significant future trend in precipitation and hydrological variables. However, the spatial distribution of precipitation reveals a projected increase in precipitation in the southern part of the basin and a decline in the northern part of the basin, with the region of reduced precipitation projected to increase with GWLs. A decrease in all hydrological variables is projected over most parts of the basin, especially over the eastern part of the basin. The simulations predict meteorological droughts (i.e., SPEI and SPI), agricultural droughts (i.e., SSI), and hydrological droughts (i.e., WYLDI, SRI) would become more intense and severe across the basin. SPEI-drought has a greater magnitude of increase than SPI-drought, and agricultural and hydrological droughts have a magnitude of increase between the two. As a result, this research suggests that future hydrological droughts over the LRB could be more severe than the SPI-drought projection predicts but less severe than the SPEI-drought projection. This research can be used to mitigate the effects of potential climate change on basin hydrological drought.

Keywords: climate change, CORDEX, drought, hydrological modelling, Limpopo River Basin

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Authors: Elham Sharifineyestani, Mohammad Farshchin

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Tropical cyclones are one of the most expensive and deadliest natural disasters. They cause heavy rainfall and serious flash flooding that result in billions of dollars of damage and considerable mortality each year in the United States. Prediction of the frequency of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events can be helpful in emergency planning and flood risk management. In this study, we have developed a machine-learning model to predict the exceedance frequencies of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events in the United States. Model results show a satisfactory agreement with available observations. To examine the effectiveness of our approach, we also have compared the result of our predictions with the exceedance frequencies predicted using a physics-based rainfall model by Feldmann.

Keywords: flash flooding, tropical cyclones, frequencies, machine learning, risk management

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Authors: Daniyar Seitenov, Nazim Mir-Nasiri

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Optimization of horizontal axis semi-exposed wind turbine has been performed using a shield protection that automatically protects the generator shaft at extreme wind speeds from over speeding, mechanical damage and continues generating electricity during the high wind speed conditions. A semi-exposed to wind generator has been designed and its structure has been described in this paper. The simplified point-force dynamic load model on the blades has been derived for normal and extreme wind conditions with and without shield involvement. Numerical simulation has been conducted at different values of wind speed to study the efficiency of shield application. The obtained results show that the maximum power generated by the wind turbine with shield does not exceed approximately the rated value of the generator, where shield serves as an automatic break for extreme wind speed values of 15 m/sec and above. Meantime the wind turbine without shield produced a power that is much larger than the rated value. The optimized horizontal axis semi-exposed wind turbine with shield protection is suitable for low and medium power generation when installed on the roofs of high rise buildings for harvesting wind energy. Wind shield works automatically with no power consumption. The structure of the generator with the protection, math simulation of kinematics and dynamics of power generation has been described in details in this paper.

Keywords: renewable energy, wind turbine, wind turbine optimization, high wind speed

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Authors: Aniket Alam, Sravya Gurram

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This paper proposes a categorization of sport that is based on the system of rules that a sport must adhere to. We focus on these systems of rules to examine how a winner is produced in different sports. The rules of a sport dictate the game play and the direction it takes. We propose to break down the game play into events. At this junction, we observe two kinds of events that constitute the game play of a sport –ones that follow sequential logic and ones that do not. Our focus is pertained to sports that are comprised of sequential events. To examine these events further, to understand how a winner emerges, we take the help of finite-state automaton from the theory of computation (Automata theory). We showcase how sequential sports are eligible to be represented as finite state machines. We depict these finite state machines as state diagrams. We examine these state diagrams to observe how a team/player reaches the final states of the sport, with a special focus on one final state –the final state which determines the winner. This exercise has been carried out for the following sports: Hurdles, Track, Shot Put, Long Jump, Bowling, Badminton, Pacman and Weightlifting (Snatch). Based on our observations of how this final state of winning is achieved, we propose a categorization of sports.

Keywords: sport classification, sport modelling, ontology, automata theory

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Authors: Antonia Harold-Barry, Eugene Dempsey

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Background: The objective is to examine the survival and outcome of infants born under 26 weeks gestation in an Irish tertiary maternity hospital from 2007-2016 and to describe the survival and neurodevelopmental outcomes of these extremely preterm infants. Method: The population is 132 infants born at 23, 24, and 25 weeks in Cork University Maternity Hospital from 2007 to 2016. Ethical approval was granted by the Cork Clinical Research Ethics Committee. Patient details were obtained from the Vermont Oxford and Badger Networks. Survival rates and Bayley scores were calculated to assess neurodevelopmental outcomes. Statistical analysis with SPSS included frequencies, distributions, and comparisons between data from 2007-2011 and 2012-2016. Results: Overall survival rate was 63%. Of the surviving babies, 61% had Bayley scores calculated. Survival stood at 39% for delivery at 23 weeks, 50% at 24 weeks, and 83% at 25 weeks. The 2012 to 2016 cohort has shown further increases in survival, with 50% of babies at 23 weeks, 58% at 24 weeks, and 89% at 25 weeks. Corresponding figures for 2007-2011 are 20%, 39%, and 75%. Gestational age and incidence of periventricular leukomalacia were statistically significant, with a p-value of 0.022. Gestational age and delivery room deaths had a p-value of 0.025, as did gestational age and birth weight. A comparison of the two cohorts (2007-2011 and 2012-2016) with the administration of antenatal steroids showed a statistically significant p-value of 0.044. Conclusion: There is less morbidity and mortality in infants born at 25 than at 23 or 24 weeks. Survival of extremely premature infants has increased significantly over the past ten years. Survival rates with normal neurodevelopmental outcomes are comparable with international standards and reflect positive changes in attitude and practices in neonatal intensive care. This study will inform parents about the potential outcomes of extreme prematurity and policy regarding the management of extreme prematurity.

Keywords: extreme of viability, neurodevelopmental outcome, periventricular leukomalacia, prematurity

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Authors: Wei-Bo Hua, Zhuo Zheng, Xiao-Dong Guo, Ben-He Zhong

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The layered structure LiNi1/3Co1/3Mn1/3-xAlxO2 (x = 0 ~ 0.04) series cathode materials were synthesized by a carbonate co-precipitation method, followed by a high temperature calcination process. The influence of Al substitution on the microstructure and electrochemical performances of the prepared materials was investigated by X-Ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and galvanostatic charge/discharge test. The results show that the LiNi1/3Co1/3Mn1/3-xAlxO2 has a well-ordered hexagonal "α" -NaFeO2 structure. Although the discharge capacity of Al-doped samples decreases as x increases, LiNi1/3Co1/3Mn1/3-0.02Al0.02O2 exhibits superior capacity retention at high voltage (4.6 V). Therefore, LiNi1/3Co1/3Mn1/3-0.02Al0.02O2 is a promising material for “green” vehicles.

Keywords: lithium ion battery, carbonate co-precipitation, doping, microstructure, electrochemical properties

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zonoozian

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For such important constructions as jacket type platforms, scrupulous attention in analysis, design and calculation processes is needed. The reliability assessment method has been established into an extensively used method to behavior safety calculation of jacket platforms. In the present study, a methodology for the reliability calculation of an offshore jacket platform in contradiction of the extreme wave loading state is available. Therefore, sensitivity analyses are applied to acquire the nonlinear response of jacket-type platforms against extreme waves. The jacket structure is modeled by applying a nonlinear finite-element model with regards to the tubular members' behave. The probability of a member’s failure under extreme wave loading is figured by a finite-element reliability code. The FORM and SORM approaches are applied for the calculation of safety directories and reliability indexes have been detected. A case study for a fixed jacket-type structure positioned in the Persian Gulf is studied by means of the planned method. Furthermore, to define the failure standards, equations suggested by the 21st version of the API RP 2A-WSD for The jacket-type structures’ tubular members designing by applying the mixed axial bending and axial pressure. Consequently, the effect of wave Loades in the reliability index was considered.

Keywords: Jacket-Type structure, reliability, failure probability, tubular members

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Authors: E. Obreque-Slier, F. Orellana-Rodríguez, R. López-Solís

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Phenolic compounds are secondary metabolites present in some foods, such as wine. Polyphenols comprise two main groups: flavonoids (anthocyanins, flavanols, and flavonols) and non-flavonoids (stilbenes and phenolic acids). Phenolic acids are low molecular weight non flavonoid compounds that are usually grouped into benzoic (gallic, vanillinic and protocatechuic acids) and cinnamic acids (ferulic, p-coumaric and caffeic acids). Likewise, tannic acid is an important polyphenol constituted mainly by gallic acid. Phenolic compounds are responsible for important properties in foods and drinks, such as color, aroma, bitterness, and astringency. Astringency is a drying, roughing, and sometimes puckering sensation that is experienced on the various oral surfaces during or immediately after tasting foods. Astringency perception has been associated with interactions between flavanols present in some foods and salivary proteins. Despite the quantitative relevance of phenolic acids in food and beverages, there is no information about its effect on salivary proteins and consequently on the sensation of astringency. The objective of this study was assessed the interaction of several phenolic acids (gallic, vanillinic, protocatechuic, ferulic, p-coumaric and caffeic acids) with saliva. Tannic acid was used as control. Thus, solutions of each phenolic acids (5 mg/mL) were mixed with human saliva (1:1 v/v). After incubation for 5 min at room temperature, 15-μL aliquots of the mixtures were dotted on a cellulose membrane and allowed to diffuse. The dry membrane was fixed in 50 g/L trichloroacetic acid, rinsed in 800 mL/L ethanol and stained for protein with Coomassie blue for 20 min, destained with several rinses of 73 g/L acetic acid and dried under a heat lamp. Both diffusion area and stain intensity of the protein spots were semiqualitative estimates for protein-tannin interaction (diffusion test). The rest of the whole saliva-phenol solution mixtures of the diffusion assay were centrifuged and fifteen-μL aliquots of each supernatant were dotted on a cellulose membrane, allowed to diffuse and processed for protein staining, as indicated above. In this latter assay, reduced protein staining was taken as indicative of protein precipitation (precipitation test). The diffusion of the salivary protein was restricted by the presence of each phenolic acids (anti-diffusive effect), while tannic acid did not alter diffusion of the salivary protein. By contrast, phenolic acids did not provoke precipitation of the salivary protein, while tannic acid produced precipitation of salivary proteins. In addition, binary mixtures (mixtures of two components) of various phenolic acids with gallic acid provoked a restriction of saliva. Similar effect was observed by the corresponding individual phenolic acids. Contrary, binary mixtures of phenolic acid with tannic acid, as well tannic acid alone, did not affect the diffusion of the saliva but they provoked an evident precipitation. In summary, phenolic acids showed a relevant interaction with the salivary proteins, thus suggesting that these wine compounds can also contribute to the sensation of astringency.

Keywords: astringency, polyphenols, tannins, tannin-protein interaction

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Authors: Amir Hamzeh Haghiabi

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Water resource management is of global significance as it plays a key role in the socioeconomic development of all nations. On account of the fact that Iran is situated in a highly pressurized belt in the world, precipitation is limited, so that the average annual precipitation in the country is about 250 mm, only about one third to one quarter of the world average for rainfall. Karkheh basin is located in the semiarid and arid regions of Western Iran, an area with severe water scarcity. 70 % of rainfall is directly evaporated. The potential annual evaporation of the southern and northern regions is 3,600 mm 1,800 mm, respectively. In this paper, Some aspects of water resources management for this region, the specifications of the Karkheh reservoir dam & hydroelectric power plant as the biggest dam in history of Iran with total volume of reservoir 7.3 Bm3 are illustrated. Also the situation of water availability in the basin, surface and groundwater potential are considered.

Keywords: Iran, water availability, water resources, Zagros

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Authors: Zerarka Hizia, Akchiche Mustapha, Prunier Florent

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The landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) is characterized by a complex geology and a high hydrogeology hazard. AEH's perpetual reactivation compels us to look closely at its triggers and to better understand the mechanisms of its evolution in mass and in depth. This study builds a numerical model to simulate the influencing factors such as precipitation, non-saturation, and pore pressure fluctuations, using Plaxis software. For a finer analysis of instabilities, we use Hill's criterion, based on the sign of the second order work, which is the most appropriate material stability criterion for non-associated elastoplastic materials. The results of this type of calculation allow us, in theory, to predict the shape and position of the slip surface(s) which are liable to ground movements of the slope, before reaching the rupture given by the plastic limit of Mohr Coulomb. To validate the numerical model, an analysis of inclinometer measures is performed to confirm the direction of movement and kinematic of the sliding mechanism of AEH’s slope.

Keywords: landslide, second order work, precipitation, inclinometers

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Márcia Afonso, Marisa Dinis-Almeida, Cristina Fael

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Climate change, namely precipitation patterns alteration, has led to extreme conditions such as floods and droughts. In turn, excessive construction has led to the waterproofing of the soil, increasing the surface runoff and decreasing the groundwater recharge capacity. The permeable pavements used in areas with low traffic lead to a decrease in the probability of floods peaks occurrence and the sediments reduction and pollutants transport, ensuring rainwater quality improvement. This study aims to evaluate the porous asphalt performance, developed in the laboratory, with addition of cellulosic fibres. One of the main objectives of cellulosic fibres use is to stop binder drainage, preventing its loss during storage and transport. Comparing to the conventional porous asphalt the cellulosic fibres addition improved the porous asphalt performance. The cellulosic fibres allowed the bitumen content increase, enabling retention and better aggregates coating and, consequently, a greater mixture durability. With this solution, it is intended to develop better practices of resilience and adaptation to the extreme climate changes and respond to the sustainability current demands, through the eco-friendly materials use. The mix design was performed for different size aggregates (with fine aggregates – PA1 and with coarse aggregates – PA2). The percentage influence of the fibres to be used was studied. It was observed that overall, the binder drainage decreases as the cellulose fibres percentage increases. It was found that the PA2 mixture obtained most binder drainage relative to PA1 mixture, irrespective of the fibres percentage used. Subsequently, the performance was evaluated through laboratory tests of indirect tensile stiffness modulus, water sensitivity, permeability and permanent deformation. The stiffness modulus for the two mixtures groups (with and without cellulosic fibres) presented very similar values between them. For the water sensitivity test it was observed that porous asphalt containing more fine aggregates are more susceptible to the water presence than mixtures with coarse aggregates. The porous asphalt with coarse aggregates have more air voids which allow water to pass easily leading to ITSR higher values. In the permeability test was observed that asphalt porous without cellulosic fibres presented had lower permeability than asphalt porous with cellulosic fibres. The resistance to permanent deformation results indicates better behaviour of porous asphalt with cellulosic fibres, verifying a bigger rut depth in porous asphalt without cellulosic fibres. In this study, it was observed that porous asphalt with bitumen higher percentages improve the performance to permanent deformation. This fact was only possible due to the bitumen retention by the cellulosic fibres.

Keywords: binder drainage, cellulosic fibres, permanent deformation, porous asphalt

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan, Hasan Uzun

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Flood is the event which damage to the surrounding lands, residential places, infrastructure and vibrant, because of the streams overflow events from its bed for several reasons. Flood is a natural formation which develops due to its region's climatic conditions, technical and topographical characteristics. However, factors causing floods with global warming caused by human activity are events such as uncontrolled urbanization. Floods in Turkey are natural disasters which cause huge economic losses after the earthquake. At the same time, the flood disaster is one of the most observed hydrometeorological disasters, compared to 30%, in Turkey. Every year, there are around 200 flood-flood disasters and the disaster as a result of financial losses of $ 100 million per year are reported to occur in public institutions. The amount allocated for carrying out investment-project activities for reducing and controlling of flood damage control are around US $ 30 million per year. The existence of a linear increase in the number of flood disasters is noteworthy due to various reasons in the last 50 years of observation. In this study, first of all, big events of the flood in Turkey and their reasons were examined. And then, the information about the work to be done in order to prevent flooding by government was given with examples. Meteorological early warning systems, flood risk maps and regulation of urban development studies are described for this purpose. As a result, recommendations regarding in the event of the occurrence of floods disaster management were issues raised.

Keywords: flood, disaster, disaster management, Türkiye

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Authors: Carmen Soria

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The aim of this paper is the study of the cultural and anthropological consequences of the historical natural disasters in Abruzzo (Italy, Central Apennine). These events have left cultural marks in local traditions as well as mythological stories, specific cults, or sanctuary areas in apotropaic function to prevent catastrophic events. Despite the difficult to find archaeological evidence of natural disasters, neverthless, the analisys of micro placenames, directly or indirectly related to such events, represents an integrated and interdisciplinary approach between seismology studies and landscape analysis. Toponymic data, indeed, highlight the strong relation between geomorphological features of areas affected by natural disasters and heritage community resilience, such as, for example, the cult of St. Agatha, widespread in the nearby of healing spring-water and ancient caves as a place of worship, in continuity with pagan rituals.

Keywords: abruzzo, heritage community resilience, seismic planames, St. agata

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Authors: Lyndsey Kim

Abstract:

We utilized country-level data on suicide rates from 1985 through 2015 provided by the WHO to explore global trends as well as country-specific trends. First, we find that up until 1995, there was an increase in suicide rates globally, followed by a steep decline in deaths. This observation is largely driven by the data from Europe, where suicides are prominent but steadily declining. Second, men are more likely to commit suicide than women across the world over the years. Third, the older generation is more likely to commit suicide than youth and adults. Finally, we turn to Durkheim’s theory and use it as a lens to understand trends in suicide across time and countries and attempt to identify social and economic events that might explain patterns that we observe. For example, we discovered a drastically different pattern in suicide rates in the US, with a steep increase in suicides in the early 2000s. We hypothesize this might be driven by both the 9/11 attacks and the recession of 2008.

Keywords: suicide trends, current events, data analysis, world health organization, durkheim theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 65