Search results for: epistemic uncertainty

Authors: Feleke Tsegaye

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The work in this thesis mainly focuses on trajectory tracking of fixed wing unmanned aerial vehicle (FWUAV) by using fuzzy based sliding mode controller(FSMC) for surveillance applications. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are general-purpose aircraft built to fly autonomously. This technology is applied in a variety of sectors, including the military, to improve defense, surveillance, and logistics. The model of FWUAV is complex due to its high non-linearity and coupling effect. In this thesis, input decoupling is done through extracting the dominant inputs during the design of the controller and considering the remaining inputs as uncertainty. The proper and steady flight maneuvering of UAVs under uncertain and unstable circumstances is the most critical problem for researchers studying UAVs. A FSMC technique was suggested to tackle the complexity of FWUAV systems. The trajectory tracking control algorithm primarily uses the sliding-mode (SM) variable structure control method to address the system’s control issue. In the SM control, a fuzzy logic control(FLC) algorithm is utilized in place of the discontinuous phase of the SM controller to reduce the chattering impact. In the reaching and sliding stages of SM control, Lyapunov theory is used to assure finite-time convergence. A comparison between the conventional SM controller and the suggested controller is done in relation to the chattering effect as well as tracking performance. It is evident that the chattering is effectively reduced, the suggested controller provides a quick response with a minimum steady-state error, and the controller is robust in the face of unknown disturbances. The designed control strategy is simulated with the nonlinear model of FWUAV using the MATLAB® / Simulink® environments. The simulation result shows the suggested controller operates effectively, maintains an aircraft’s stability, and will hold the aircraft’s targeted flight path despite the presence of uncertainty and disturbances.

Keywords: fixed-wing UAVs, sliding mode controller, fuzzy logic controller, chattering, coupling effect, surveillance, finite-time convergence, Lyapunov theory, flight path

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Authors: Donatella R. Fiorino, Marzia Loddo

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The practice of freeing monuments from subsequent additions crosses the entire history of conservation and it is traditionally connected to the aim of valorisation, both for cultural and educational purpose and recently even for touristic exploitation. Defence heritage has been widely interested by these cultural and technical moods from philological restoration to critic innovations. A renovated critical analysis of Italian episodes and in particular the Sardinian case of the area of San Pancrazio in Cagliari, constitute an important lesson about the limits of this practice and the uncertainty in terms of results, towards the definition of a sustainable good practice in the restoration of military architectures.

Keywords: defensive architecture, liberation, Valorisation for tourism, historical restoration

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Authors: Fatbardha Kadiu, Nulifer Caliskan

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The value added tax came as a necessity of substituting the old tax on sales. Based on the advantages of this new tax in our days it is used successfully in more than 140 countries around the world. The aim of the paper is to describe the nature of this tax with its advantages and disadvantages. Also it will describe the way how it functions in most of the European countries and the actual challenges of these countries on value added tax. It will be present the types of goods which are exempt from this tax, the reasons and the consequences of those exemptions. The paper will be based on secondary data taken from respective literature. An econometric model will be present in order to identify the dependence of value tax from other parameters. The analyzing most refers to the two main principles of harmonization and billing on the fiscal system and the ways how to restructures the system in order to minimize the fiscal evasion.

Keywords: value added tax, revenues, complexity, legal uncertainty

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Authors: Aparna Viswanath

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Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as non-storability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: financial derivatives, forward, futures, options, risk management

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Authors: Vahid Tabrizi, Reza GHasemi, Ahmadreza Vali

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This paper presents robust nonlinear control law for a quadrotor UAV using fast terminal sliding mode control. Fast terminal sliding mode idea is used for introducing a nonlinear sliding variable that guarantees the finite time convergence in sliding phase. Then, in reaching phase for removing chattering and producing smooth control signal, continuous approximation idea is used. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is robust against parameter uncertainty and has better performance than conventional sliding mode for controlling a quadrotor UAV.

Keywords: quadrotor UAV, fast terminal sliding mode, second order sliding mode t

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Authors: Max Moleke, Gilbert Mbonde

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Coordinating supply chain process within a manufacturing environment is a very critical aspect of any organization. Nowadays, most manufacturing industries turn to look at only the financial indicator which in real life situation on the shop floor, there are a number of supply chain disruptions that are been ignored. In this work, we had to look at different types of supply chain disruption and their various impact within the organization. A number of Industrial engineering tools are employed which includes, Multifactor productivity, activity on arrow and rescheduling plans. The final result shows that supply chain disruption various with different geographical area where the production plant is operating.

Keywords: supply chain, disruptions, flow shop scheduling, uncertainty

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Authors: K. M. Alsager, N. O. Alshehri

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In this paper, we proposed the notion of single valued neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy rough set, by combining single valued neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy set and rough set. The combination of single valued neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy set and rough set is a powerful tool for dealing with uncertainty, granularity and incompleteness of knowledge in information systems. We presented both definition and some basic properties of the proposed model. Finally, we gave a general approach which is applied to a decision making problem in disease diagnoses, and demonstrated the effectiveness of the approach by a numerical example.

Keywords: single valued neutrosophic fuzzy set, single valued neutrosophic fuzzy hesitant set, rough set, single valued neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy rough set

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Authors: Rashmi Dyondi, Shishir K. Jha

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The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product (movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk behavior under conditions of uncertainty. Unlike extensive scholarly work on dynamics of Hollywood motion picture industry, Hindi film industry is an under-researched area till now. Especially how do film distributors perceive risk is an unexplored study for the Hindi film industry. Films are unique experience products and the film distributor acts as an entrepreneur assuming high risks given the uncertainty in the motion picture business. With the entry of mighty corporate studios and astronomical film budgets posing serious business threats to the independent distributors, there is a need for an in-depth qualitative enquiry (applying grounded theory technique) for unraveling the definition of risk for the independent distributors in Mumbai vis-à-vis the corporate studios. Need for good content was a common challenge to both the groups in the present state of the industry, however corporate studios with their distinct ideologies, focus on own productions and financial power faced different set of challenges than the independents (like achieving sustainability in business). Softer issues like market goodwill and relations with producers, honesty in business dealings and transparency came out to be clear markers for success of independents in long run. The findings from the qualitative analysis stress on different elements of risk and challenges as perceived by the two groups of distributors in the Hindi film industry and provide a future research agenda for empirical investigation of determinants of box-office success of Hindi films distributed in Mumbai.

Keywords: entrepreneurial risk behavior, film distribution strategy, Hindi film industry, risk

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Authors: Mohammad Hossein Badamchi

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In Iran as well as other developing countries instituting innovation and entrepreneurship ecosystems by government around the universities is the new imported fashion of modernization and development in the 21st century. In recent decade various statesmen, policy makers, university administrations, economists and development theorists are emphasizing excitingly about the new “start-ups” which are going to solve all economic problems and backwardness of the country. However, critical study of modernization practices in Iran implies that this new trend is suffering from conventional deficiency of modernization planning in 20th century. This article is going to depict the misunderstandings of a situation which we can name “Pseudo-innovation in a closed society” by presenting these 12 paradoxes of this new system, actually happening in Iran: (1) Innovation without freedom? Fiction of innovation in a patriarchal state (2) Entrepreneurship without free market? Fiction of entrepreneurship in a rentier-state. (3) Ecosystem or a state-glasshouse? Is it possible to make and plan an innovation? (4) Innovation; epistemic or practical? How academic innovation could happen abstractly out of context? (5) Risk and Lucre: innovation to protect power and property?! (6) Silicon-valley mirage: what is in common between American-Iranian polity? (7) Information or Communication? ICT startups to restrict the internet (8) The elite paradox: new proletariat of private sector, new governmental clerk or a new path of brain drain? (9) Innovation or commercialization? Revisiting Schumpeterian creative destruction (10) The friendship of Jungle and fire: paradox of public science and market (11) Innovation and revolution: top-down or bottom-up paradox in an Iranian experience (12) Technology instead of civil society: ultimate result of innovation in a closed society. Through explaining these paradoxes we can gradually penetrate the real rationality of Pseudo-innovation ecosystem in a closed society, which can be understood as new-Neopatriarchy reconstruction of traditional patriarchal politics, economy and culture in Iran.

Keywords: innovation, critical sociology, modernisation, Iran, closed society

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Authors: David G. Maxinez, Andrés Ferreyra Ramírez, Liliana Castillo Sánchez, Nancy Adán Mendoza, Carlos Aviles Cruz

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This research describes the use of fuzzy logic in detection, assessment, analysis and evaluation of children with behavioral disorders. It shows how to acquire and analyze ambiguous, vague and full of uncertainty data coming from the input variables to get an accurate assessment result for each of the typologies presented by children with behavior problems. Behavior disorders analyzed in this paper are: hyperactivity (H), attention deficit with hyperactivity (DAH), conduct disorder (TD) and attention deficit (AD).

Keywords: alteration, behavior, centroid, detection, disorders, economic, fuzzy logic, hyperactivity, impulsivity, social

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Authors: Mohammad A. U. Khan, Omar A. Kittaneh, M. Akbar, Tariq M. Khan, Husam A. Bayoud

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The Shannon Entropy measure has been widely used for measuring uncertainty. However, in partial settings, the histogram is used to estimate the underlying distribution. The histogram is dependent on the number of bins used. In this paper, a modification is proposed that makes the Shannon entropy based on histogram consistent. For providing the benefits, two application are picked in medical image processing applications. The simulations are carried out to show the superiority of this modified measure for image segmentation problem. The improvement may be contributed to robustness shown to uneven background in images.

Keywords: Shannon entropy, medical image processing, image segmentation, modification

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Authors: Alia Alghosoun, Nabil El Moçayd, Mohammed Seaid

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Modeling dam-break flows over non-flat beds requires an accurate representation of the topography which is the main source of uncertainty in the model. Therefore, developing robust and accurate techniques for reconstructing topography in this class of problems would reduce the uncertainty in the flow system. In many hydraulic applications, experimental techniques have been widely used to measure the bed topography. In practice, experimental work in hydraulics may be very demanding in both time and cost. Meanwhile, computational hydraulics have served as an alternative for laboratory and field experiments. Unlike the forward problem, the inverse problem is used to identify the bed parameters from the given experimental data. In this case, the shallow water equations used for modeling the hydraulics need to be rearranged in a way that the model parameters can be evaluated from measured data. However, this approach is not always possible and it suffers from stability restrictions. In the present work, we propose an adaptive optimal control technique to numerically identify the underlying bed topography from a given set of free-surface observation data. In this approach, a minimization function is defined to iteratively determine the model parameters. The proposed technique can be interpreted as a fractional-stage scheme. In the first stage, the forward problem is solved to determine the measurable parameters from known data. In the second stage, the adaptive control Ensemble Kalman Filter is implemented to combine the optimality of observation data in order to obtain the accurate estimation of the topography. The main features of this method are on one hand, the ability to solve for different complex geometries with no need for any rearrangements in the original model to rewrite it in an explicit form. On the other hand, its achievement of strong stability for simulations of flows in different regimes containing shocks or discontinuities over any geometry. Numerical results are presented for a dam-break flow problem over non-flat bed using different solvers for the shallow water equations. The robustness of the proposed method is investigated using different numbers of loops, sensitivity parameters, initial samples and location of observations. The obtained results demonstrate high reliability and accuracy of the proposed techniques.

Keywords: erodible beds, finite element method, finite volume method, nonlinear elasticity, shallow water equations, stresses in soil

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Authors: S. Cencek, A. Markun

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Noise assessment methods are regularly used in scope of Environmental Impact Assessments for planned projects to assess (predict) the expected noise emissions of these projects. Different noise assessment methods could be used. In recent years, we had an opportunity to collaborate in some noise assessment procedures where noise assessments of different laboratories have been performed simultaneously. We identified some significant differences in noise assessment results between laboratories in Slovenia. We estimate that despite good input Georeferenced Data to set up acoustic model exists in Slovenia; there is no clear consensus on methods for predictive noise methods for planned projects. We analyzed input data, methods and results of predictive noise methods for two planned industrial projects, both were done independently by two laboratories. We also analyzed the data, methods and results of two interlaboratory collaborative noise models for two existing noise sources (railway and motorway). In cases of predictive noise modelling, the validations of acoustic models were performed by noise measurements of surrounding existing noise sources, but in varying durations. The acoustic characteristics of existing buildings were also not described identically. The planned noise sources were described and digitized differently. Differences in noise assessment results between different laboratories have ranged up to 10 dBA, which considerably exceeds the acceptable uncertainty ranged between 3 to 6 dBA. Contrary to predictive noise modelling, in cases of collaborative noise modelling for two existing noise sources the possibility to perform the validation noise measurements of existing noise sources greatly increased the comparability of noise modelling results. In both cases of collaborative noise modelling for existing motorway and railway, the modelling results of different laboratories were comparable. Differences in noise modeling results between different laboratories were below 5 dBA, which was acceptable uncertainty set up by interlaboratory noise modelling organizer. The lessons learned from the study were: 1) Predictive noise calculation using formulae from International standard SIST ISO 9613-2: 1997 is not an appropriate method to predict noise emissions of planned projects since due to complexity of procedure they are not used strictly, 2) The noise measurements are important tools to minimize noise assessment errors of planned projects and should be in cases of predictive noise modelling performed at least for validation of acoustic model, 3) National guidelines should be made on the appropriate data, methods, noise source digitalization, validation of acoustic model etc. in order to unify the predictive noise models and their results in scope of Environmental Impact Assessments for planned projects.

Keywords: environmental noise assessment, predictive noise modelling, spatial planning, noise measurements, national guidelines

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Authors: Mustarakh Gelfi, Tiedo Vellinga, Poonam Taneja, Delon Hamonangan

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The development of New Priok/Kalibaru as an expansion terminal of the old port has been being done by IPC (Indonesia Port Cooperation) together with the subsidiary company, Port Developer (PT Pengembangan Pelabuhan Indonesia). As stated in the master plan, from 2 phases that had been proposed, phase I has shown its form and even Container Terminal I has been operated in 2016. It was planned principally, the development will be divided into Phase I (2013-2018) consist of 3 container terminals and 2 product terminals and Phase II (2018-2023) consist of 4 container terminals. In fact, the master plan has to be changed due to some major uncertainties which were escaped in prediction. This study is focused on the design scenario of phase II (2035- onwards) to deal with future uncertainty. The outcome is the robust design of phase II of the Kalibaru Terminal taking into account the future changes. Flexibility has to be a major goal in such a large infrastructure project like New Priok in order to deal and manage future uncertainty. The phasing of project needs to be adapted and re-look frequently before being irrelevant to future challenges. One of the frameworks that have been developed by an expert in port planning is Adaptive Port Planning (APP) with scenario-based planning. The idea behind APP framework is the adaptation that might be needed at any moment as an answer to a challenge. It is a continuous procedure that basically aims to increase the lifespan of waterborne transport infrastructure by increasing flexibility in the planning, contracting and design phases. Other methods used in this study are brainstorming with the port authority, desk study, interview and site visit to the real project. The result of the study is expected to be the insight for the port authority of Tanjung Priok over the future look and how it will impact the design of the port. There will be guidelines to do the design in an uncertain environment as well. Solutions of flexibility can be divided into: 1 - Physical solutions, all the items related hard infrastructure in the projects. The common things in this type of solution are using modularity, standardization, multi-functional, shorter and longer design lifetime, reusability, etc. 2 - Non-physical solutions, usually related to the planning processes, decision making and management of the projects. To conclude, APP framework seems quite robust to deal with the problem of designing phase II of New Priok Project for such a long period.

Keywords: Indonesia port, port's design, port planning, scenario-based planning

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Authors: Bogdan Walek, Vladimir Bradac, Radim Farana

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Distance learning systems offer useful methods of learning and usually contain final course test or another form of test. The paper proposes web application for evaluating tests using expert system in distance learning systems. Proposed web application is appropriate for didactic tests or tests with results for subsequent studying follow-up courses. Web application works with test questions and uses expert system and LFLC tool for test evaluation. After test evaluation the results are visualized and shown to student.

Keywords: distance learning, test, uncertainty, fuzzy, expert system, student

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Authors: Citra Pertiwi, Muhammad Fikruzzaman Rahawarin

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Government of Indonesia had committed to increasing its national defense the budget up to 1,5 percent of GDP. However, the budget increase does not necessarily allocate efficiently and effectively. Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the operational units of Indonesian Armed Forces are considered as a proxy to measure those two aspects. The bootstrap technique is being used as well to reduce uncertainty in the estimation. Additionally, technological change is being measured as a nonstationary component. Nearly half of the units are being estimated as fully efficient, with less than a third is considered as effective. Longer and larger sets of data might increase the robustness of the estimation in the future.

Keywords: bootstrap, effectiveness, efficiency, DEA, military, Malmquist, technological change

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Authors: Amir Ghasem Norouzi, Mahdi Zowghi

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This study propose a framework based on the fuzzy T-Norms, T-conorm, a novel operator, and multi-expert approach to help organizations build awareness of the critical influential factors on the success of knowledge management (KM) implementation, analysis the failure of knowledge management. This study considers the complex uncertainty concept that is in knowledge management implementing capability (KMIC) and it is used by fuzzy logic for this reason. The contribution of our paper is shown with an empirical study in a nonprofit educational organization evaluation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, knowledge management, multi expert analysis, consensus oriented average operator

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Authors: Elsadig Naseraddeen Ahmed Mohamed

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In contrast to the uncertainty and complementary principle, it will be shown in the present paper that the probability of the simultaneous occupation event of any definite values of coordinates by any definite values of momentum and energy at any definite instance of time can be described by a binary definite function equivalent to the difference between their numbers of occupation and evacuation epochs up to that time and also equivalent to the number of exchanges between those occupation and evacuation epochs up to that times modulus two, these binary definite quantities can be defined at all point in the time’s real-line so it form a binary signal represent a complete mechanical description of physical reality, the time of these exchanges represent the boundary of occupation and evacuation epochs from which we can calculate these binary signals using the fact that the time of universe events actually extends in the positive and negative of time’s real-line in one direction of extension when these number of exchanges increase, so there exists noninvertible transformation matrix can be defined as the matrix multiplication of invertible rotation matrix and noninvertible scaling matrix change the direction and magnitude of exchange event vector respectively, these noninvertible transformation will be called actual transformation in contrast to information transformations by which we can navigate the universe’s events transformed by actual transformations backward and forward in time’s real-line, so these information transformations will be derived as an elements of a group can be associated to their corresponded actual transformations. The actual and information model of the universe will be derived by assuming the existence of time instance zero before and at which there is no coordinate occupied by any definite values of momentum and energy, and then after that time, the universe begin its expanding in spacetime, this assumption makes the need for the existence of Laplace’s demon who at one moment can measure the positions and momentums of all constituent particle of the universe and then use the law of classical mechanics to predict all future and past of universe’s events, superfluous, we only need for the establishment of our analog to digital converters to sense the binary signals that determine the boundaries of occupation and evacuation epochs of the definite values of coordinates relative to its origin by the definite values of momentum and energy as present events of the universe from them we can predict approximately in high precision it's past and future events.

Keywords: binary-signal mechanics, actual-information model of the universe, actual-transformation, information-transformation, uncertainty principle, Laplace's demon

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Authors: Amirmozafar Benshams, Khatere Kashmari, Farzad Hatami, Mesbah Saybani

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As a part of the transportation network, bridges are one of the most vulnerable structures. In order to investigate the vulnerability and seismic evaluation of bridges performance, identifying of bridge associated with various state of damage is important. Fragility curves provide important data about damage states and performance of bridges against earthquakes. The development of vulnerability information in the form of fragility curves is a widely practiced approach when the information is to be developed accounting for a multitude of uncertain source involved. This paper presents the fragility curve methodologies for bridges and investigates the practice and applications relating to the seismic fragility assessment of bridges.

Keywords: fragility curve, bridge, uncertainty, NLTHA, IDA

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Authors: Johannes Gantner, Michael Held, Matthias Fischer

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The refurbishment of the building stock in terms of energy supply and efficiency is one of the major challenges of the German turnaround in energy policy. As the building sector accounts for 40% of Germany’s total energy demand, additional insulation is key for energy efficient refurbished buildings. Nevertheless the energetic benefits often the environmental and economic performances of insulation materials are questioned. The methods Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as well as Life Cycle Costing (LCC) can form the standardized basis for answering this doubts and more and more become important for material producers due efforts such as Product Environmental Footprint (PEF) or Environmental Product Declarations (EPD). Due to increasing use of LCA and LCC information for decision support the robustness and resilience of the results become crucial especially for support of decision and policy makers. LCA and LCC results are based on respective models which depend on technical parameters like efficiencies, material and energy demand, product output, etc.. Nevertheless, the influence of parameter uncertainties on lifecycle results are usually not considered or just studied superficially. Anyhow the effect of parameter uncertainties cannot be neglected. Based on the example of an exterior wall the overall lifecycle results are varying by a magnitude of more than three. As a result simple best case worst case analyses used in practice are not sufficient. These analyses allow for a first rude view on the results but are not taking effects into account such as error propagation. Thereby LCA practitioners cannot provide further guidance for decision makers. Probabilistic analyses enable LCA practitioners to gain deeper understanding of the LCA and LCC results and provide a better decision support. Within this study, the environmental and economic impacts of an exterior wall system over its whole lifecycle are illustrated, and the effect of different uncertainty analysis on the interpretation in terms of resilience and robustness are shown. Hereby the approaches of error propagation and Monte Carlo Simulations are applied and combined with statistical methods in order to allow for a deeper understanding and interpretation. All in all this study emphasis the need for a deeper and more detailed probabilistic evaluation based on statistical methods. Just by this, misleading interpretations can be avoided, and the results can be used for resilient and robust decisions.

Keywords: uncertainty, life cycle assessment, life cycle costing, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Sunny Nwakanma

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The emergence of the new economy has created a new world order for skill acquisition, economic activities and employment. It has dramatically changed the way we live, learn, work and even think about work. It has also created new opportunities as well as challenges and uncertainty. This paper will not only demystify the new economy and present its instrumentality in the acceleration of skill acquisition in technical education, but will also highlight industrial and occupational changes brought about by the synergy between information and communication technology revolution and the global economic system. It advocates among other things, the use of information and communication technology mediated instruction in technical education as it provides the flexibility to meet diverse learners’ need anytime and anywhere and facilitate skill acquisition.

Keywords: new economy, technical education, skill acquisition, information and communication technology

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Authors: Hee Joon Lee

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There are many difficulties in measuring a small flow rate of an order of milli grams per minute (LPM) or less using a conventional flowmeter. Therefore, a flow meter with minimal loss and based on a new concept was designed as part of this paper. A chamber was manufactured with a level transmitter and an on-off control valve. When the level of the collected condensed water reaches the top of the chamber, the valve opens to allow the collected water to drain back into the tank. To allow the water to continue to drain when the signal is lost, the valve is held open for a few seconds by a time delay switch and then closed. After an examination, the condensing flow rate was successfully measured with the uncertainty of ±5.7% of the full scale for the chamber.

Keywords: chamber, condensation, flow meter, milli-grams

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Authors: Noureddine Henka, Sami Tazi, Mohamad Assaad

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The electrical grid is a highly intricate system designed to transfer electricity from production areas to consumption areas. The Transmission System Operator (TSO) is responsible for ensuring the efficient distribution of electricity and maintaining the grid's safety and quality. However, due to the increasing integration of intermittent renewable energy sources, there is a growing level of uncertainty, which requires a faster responsive approach. A potential solution involves the use of electrical segmentation, which involves creating coherence zones where electrical disturbances mainly remain within the zone. Indeed, by means of coherent electrical zones, it becomes possible to focus solely on the sub-zone, reducing the range of possibilities and aiding in managing uncertainty. It allows faster execution of operational processes and easier learning for supervised machine learning algorithms. Electrical segmentation can be applied to various applications, such as electrical control, minimizing electrical loss, and ensuring voltage stability. Since the electrical grid can be modeled as a graph, where the vertices represent electrical buses and the edges represent electrical lines, identifying coherent electrical zones can be seen as a clustering task on graphs, generally called community detection. Nevertheless, a critical criterion for the zones is their ability to remain resilient to the electrical evolution of the grid over time. This evolution is due to the constant changes in electricity generation and consumption, which are reflected in graph structure variations as well as line flow changes. One approach to creating a resilient segmentation is to design robust zones under various circumstances. This issue can be represented through a multiplex graph, where each layer represents a specific situation that may arise on the grid. Consequently, resilient segmentation can be achieved by conducting community detection on this multiplex graph. The multiplex graph is composed of multiple graphs, and all the layers share the same set of vertices. Our proposal involves a model that utilizes a unified representation to compute a flattening of all layers. This unified situation can be penalized to obtain (K) connected components representing the robust electrical segmentation clusters. We compare our robust segmentation to the segmentation based on a single reference situation. The robust segmentation proves its relevance by producing clusters with high intra-electrical perturbation and low variance of electrical perturbation. We saw through the experiences when robust electrical segmentation has a benefit and in which context.

Keywords: community detection, electrical segmentation, multiplex graph, power grid

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Authors: M. Ndeley

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Now our days, Almost all manufacturing facilities need to use production planning and scheduling systems to increase productivity and to reduce production costs. Real-life production operations are subject to a large number of unexpected disruptions that may invalidate the original schedules. In these cases, rescheduling is essential to minimize the impact on the performance of the system. In this work we consider flow shop layouts that have seldom been studied in the rescheduling literature. We generate and employ three types of disruption that interrupt the original schedules simultaneously. We develop rescheduling algorithms to finally accomplish the twofold objective of establishing a standard framework on the one hand; and proposing rescheduling methods that seek a good trade-off between schedule quality and stability on the other.

Keywords: flow shop scheduling, uncertainty, rescheduling, stability

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Authors: Sehrish Qayyum

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In this age of constant technology, asymmetrical warfare could not be won. Attuned psychometric study confirms that screaming sometimes is more productive than active retaliation against strong adversaries. Asymmetric warfare is a game of nerves and thoughts with least vigorous participation for large anticipated losses. It creates the condition of paraplegia with partial but permanent immobility, which effects the core warfare operations, being screams rather than active retaliation. When one’s own power is doubted, it gives power to one’s own doubt to ruin all planning either done with superlative cost-benefit analysis. Strategically calculated estimation of asymmetric warfare since the early WWI to WWII, WWII-to Cold War, and then to the current era in three chronological periods exposits that courage makes nations win the battle of warriors to battle of comrades. Asymmetric warfare has been most difficult to fight and survive due to unexpectedness and being lethal despite preparations. Thoughts before action may be the best-assumed strategy to mix Regional Security Complex Theory and OODA loop to develop the Paraplegic Resilience Policy Plan (PRPP) to win asymmetric warfare. PRPP may serve to control and halt the ongoing wave of terrorism, guerilla warfare, and insurgencies, etc. PRPP, along with a strategic work plan, is based on psychometric analysis to deal with any possible war condition and tactic to save millions of innocent lives such that lost in Christchurch New Zealand in 2019, November 2015 Paris attacks, and Berlin market attacks in 2016, etc. Getting tangled into self-imposed epistemic dilemmas results in regret that becomes the only option of performance. It is a descriptive psychometric analysis of war conditions with generic application of probability tests to find the best possible options and conditions to develop PRPP for any adverse condition possible so far. Innovation in technology begets innovation in planning and action-plan to serve as a rheostat approach to deal with asymmetric warfare.

Keywords: asymmetric warfare, psychometric analysis, PRPP, security

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Authors: Anthony Coogan

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Born’s probability interpretation of wave functions would have led to nearly identical results had he chosen a frequency interpretation instead. Logically, Born may have assumed that only one electron was under consideration, making it nonsensical to propose a frequency wave. Author’s suggestion: the actual experimental results were not of a single electron; rather, they were groups of reflected x-ray photons. The vertical waveform used by Scrhödinger in his Particle in the Box Theory makes sense if it was intended to represent a quantum leap. The author extended the single vertical panel to form a bar chart: separate panels would represent different energy levels. The proposed bar chart would be populated by reflected photons. Expansion of basic ideas: Part of Scrhödinger’s ‘Particle in the Box’ theory may be valid despite negative criticism. The waveform used in the diagram is vertical, which may seem absurd because real waves decay at a measurable rate, rather than instantaneously. However, there may be one notable exception. Supposedly, following from the theory, the Uncertainty Principle was derived – may a Quantum Leap not be represented as an instantaneous waveform? The great Scrhödinger must have had some reason to suggest a vertical waveform if the prevalent belief was that they did not exist. Complex wave forms representing a particle are usually assumed to be continuous. The actual observations made were x-ray photons, some of which had struck an electron, been reflected, and then moved toward a detector. From Born’s perspective, doing similar work the years in question 1926-7, he would also have considered a single electron – leading him to choose a probability distribution. Probability Distributions appear very similar to Frequency Distributions, but the former are considered to represent the likelihood of future events. Born’s interpretation of the results of quantum experiments led (or perhaps misled) many researchers into claiming that humans can influence events just by looking at them, e.g. collapsing complex wave functions by 'looking at the electron to see which slit it emerged from', while in reality light reflected from the electron moved in the observer’s direction after the electron had moved away. Astronomers may say that they 'look out into the universe' but are actually using logic opposed to the views of Newton and Hooke and many observers such as Romer, in that light carries information from a source or reflector to an observer, rather the reverse. Conclusion: Due to the controversial nature of these ideas, especially its implications about the nature of complex numbers used in applications in science and engineering, some time may pass before any consensus is reached.

Keywords: complex wave functions not necessary, frequency distributions instead of wave functions, information carried by light, sketch graph of uncertainty principle

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Authors: R. H. Fattepur, Sameer R. Fattepur, D. K. Sreekantha

Abstract:

Dairy Farming is one of the key industries in India. India is the leading producer and also the consumer of milk, milk-based products in the world. In this paper, we have attempted to the replace the human expert system and to develop an artificial expert system prototype to increase the speed and accuracy of decision making dairy farming credit risk evaluation. Fuzzy logic is used for dealing with uncertainty, vague and acquired knowledge, fuzzy rule base method is used for representing this knowledge for building an effective expert system.

Keywords: expert system, fuzzy logic, knowledge base, dairy farming, credit risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 333

Authors: K. E. Daryani, H. Mohamad

Abstract:

Uncertainties in the geo-structure analysis and design have a significant impact on the safety of slopes. Traditionally, uncertainties in the geotechnical design are addressed by incorporating a conservative factor of safety in the analytical model. In this paper, a risk-based approach is adopted to assess the influence of the geotechnical variable uncertainties on the stability of infinite slopes in cohesionless soils using the “partial factor of safety on shear strength” approach as stated in Eurocode 7. Analyses conducted using Monte Carlo simulation show that the same partial factor can have very different levels of risk depending on the degree of uncertainty of the mean values of the soil friction angle and void ratio.

Keywords: Safety, Probability of Failure, Reliability, Infinite Slopes, Sand.

Procedia PDF Downloads 546

Authors: Ibrahim M. Alwehaibi

Abstract:

Recently the windows of globalization weirdly open, which increase the trade between the Western countries and Muslim nations. Sales of goods contracts are one of the most common business transaction in the world. This commercial exchange has faced many obstacles. One of the most concerned obstacles is the conflicts between laws. Thus, United Nation created a Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods (CISG). Some of Islamic countries have ratified the CISG, while other Islamic countries have concerns about the feasibility of ratification of the CISG, and many businessmen have a concern of application of the convention. The concerns related to the conflict between CISG and Sharia, and the long debate about the success, ambiguity, and stability of the CISG. Therefore, this research will examine the feasibility of Muslim countries and Muslim businessmen to adopt the CISG by following steps: First, this research will introduce sharia Law (Islamic contracts law) and CISG and provide backgrounds of both laws. Second, this research will compare the provisions of CISG and Sharia and figuring out the conflicts and provide possible solutions for the conflicts. Third, this study will examine the advantages and disadvantages of adopting the CISG and examining the success of the CISG. Fourth, this study will explore the current situation in Islamic countries by taking Saudi Arabia as a case and explore how the application of Sharia law works and the possibility to enforce the CISG and explore the current practice of foreign Sales in Saudi Arabia. The research finds that there are some conflicts between CISG and Sharia Law. The most notable conflicts are interest and uncertainty in considerations. Also, this research finds that it seems that ratification of CISG is not beneficial for Muslim countries because the convention has not reached its goal which is uniformity of laws. Moreover, the CISG has been excluded and ignored by businessmen and some courts. Additionally, this research finds that it could be possible to enforce CISG in Saudi Arabia, provided that no conflict between the enforced provision and Sharia Law. This study is following the competitive and analysis methodologies to reach its findings. The researcher analyzes the provision of CISG and compares them with Sharia rules and finds the conflicts and compatibilities. In fact, CISG has 101 articles, so a comprehensive comparison of all articles in CISG with Sharia is difficult. Thus, in order to deeply analyze all aspects of this issue, this study will exclude some areas of contract which have been discussed by other researchers such as deliver of goods, conformity, and mirror image rules. The comparative section of this study will focus on the most concerned articles that conflict or doubtful of conflict with Sharia, which are interest, uncertainty, statute of limitation, specific performance, and pass of risk.

Keywords: Sharia, CISG, Contracts for International Sale of Goods, contracts, sale of goods, Saudi Arabia

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: C. Shih, J. R. Wang, H. C. Chang, S. W. Chen, S. C. Chiang, T. Y. Yu

Abstract:

After the measurement uncertainty recapture (MUR) power uprates, Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) was uprated the power from 2894 MWt to 2943 MWt. For power upgrade, several codes (e.g., TRACE, RELAP5, etc.) were applied to assess the safety of Kuosheng NPP. Hence, the main work of this research is to establish a RELAP5/MOD3.3 model of Kuosheng NPP with SNAP interface. The establishment of RELAP5/SNAP model was referred to the FSAR, training documents, and TRACE model which has been developed and verified before. After completing the model establishment, the startup test scenarios would be applied to the RELAP5/SNAP model. With comparing the startup test data and TRACE analysis results, the applicability of RELAP5/SNAP model would be assessed.

Keywords: RELAP5, TRACE, SNAP, BWR

Procedia PDF Downloads 395