Search results for: entropy minimization
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 610

Search results for: entropy minimization

40 Biotechnological Methods for the Grouting of the Tunneling Space

Authors: V. Ivanov, J. Chu, V. Stabnikov

Abstract:

Different biotechnological methods for the production of construction materials and for the performance of construction processes in situ are developing within a new scientific discipline of Construction Biotechnology. The aim of this research was to develop and test new biotechnologies and biotechnological grouts for the minimization of the hydraulic conductivity of the fractured rocks and porous soil. This problem is essential to minimize flow rate of groundwater into the construction sites, the tunneling space before and after excavation, inside levies, as well as to stop water seepage from the aquaculture ponds, agricultural channels, radioactive waste or toxic chemicals storage sites, from the landfills or from the soil-polluted sites. The conventional fine or ultrafine cement grouts or chemical grouts have such restrictions as high cost, viscosity, sometime toxicity but the biogrouts, which are based on microbial or enzymatic activities and some not expensive inorganic reagents, could be more suitable in many cases because of lower cost and low or zero toxicity. Due to these advantages, development of biotechnologies for biogrouting is going exponentially. However, most popular at present biogrout, which is based on activity of urease- producing bacteria initiating crystallization of calcium carbonate from calcium salt has such disadvantages as production of toxic ammonium/ammonia and development of high pH. Therefore, the aim of our studies was development and testing of new biogrouts that are environmentally friendly and have low cost suitable for large scale geotechnical, construction, and environmental applications. New microbial biotechnologies have been studied and tested in the sand columns, fissured rock samples, in 1 m3 tank with sand, and in the pack of stone sheets that were the models of the porous soil and fractured rocks. Several biotechnological methods showed positive results: 1) biogrouting using sequential desaturation of sand by injection of denitrifying bacteria and medium following with biocementation using urease-producing bacteria, urea and calcium salt decreased hydraulic conductivity of sand to 2×10-7 ms-1 after 17 days of treatment and consumed almost three times less reagents than conventional calcium-and urea-based biogrouting; 2) biogrouting using slime-producing bacteria decreased hydraulic conductivity of sand to 1x10-6 ms-1 after 15 days of treatment; 3) biogrouting of the rocks with the width of the fissures 65×10-6 m using calcium bicarbonate solution, that was produced from CaCO3 and CO2 under 30 bars pressure, decreased hydraulic conductivity of the fissured rocks to 2×10-7 ms-1 after 5 days of treatment. These bioclogging technologies could have a lot of advantages over conventional construction materials and processes and can be used in geotechnical engineering, agriculture and aquaculture, and for the environmental protection.

Keywords: biocementation, bioclogging, biogrouting, fractured rocks, porous soil, tunneling space

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39 Stable Time Reversed Integration of the Navier-Stokes Equation Using an Adjoint Gradient Method

Authors: Jurriaan Gillissen

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This work is concerned with stabilizing the numerical integration of the Navier-Stokes equation (NSE), backwards in time. Applications involve the detection of sources of, e.g., sound, heat, and pollutants. Stable reverse numerical integration of parabolic differential equations is also relevant for image de-blurring. While the literature addresses the reverse integration problem of the advection-diffusion equation, the problem of numerical reverse integration of the NSE has, to our knowledge, not yet been addressed. Owing to the presence of viscosity, the NSE is irreversible, i.e., when going backwards in time, the fluid behaves, as if it had a negative viscosity. As an effect, perturbations from the perfect solution, due to round off errors or discretization errors, grow exponentially in time, and reverse integration of the NSE is inherently unstable, regardless of using an implicit time integration scheme. Consequently, some sort of filtering is required, in order to achieve a stable, numerical, reversed integration. The challenge is to find a filter with a minimal adverse affect on the accuracy of the reversed integration. In the present work, we explore an adjoint gradient method (AGM) to achieve this goal, and we apply this technique to two-dimensional (2D), decaying turbulence. The AGM solves for the initial velocity field u0 at t = 0, that, when integrated forward in time, produces a final velocity field u1 at t = 1, that is as close as is feasibly possible to some specified target field v1. The initial field u0 defines a minimum of a cost-functional J, that measures the distance between u1 and v1. In the minimization procedure, the u0 is updated iteratively along the gradient of J w.r.t. u0, where the gradient is obtained by transporting J backwards in time from t = 1 to t = 0, using the adjoint NSE. The AGM thus effectively replaces the backward integration by multiple forward and backward adjoint integrations. Since the viscosity is negative in the adjoint NSE, each step of the AGM is numerically stable. Nevertheless, when applied to turbulence, the AGM develops instabilities, which limit the backward integration to small times. This is due to the exponential divergence of phase space trajectories in turbulent flow, which produces a multitude of local minima in J, when the integration time is large. As an effect, the AGM may select unphysical, noisy initial conditions. In order to improve this situation, we propose two remedies. First, we replace the integration by a sequence of smaller integrations, i.e., we divide the integration time into segments, where in each segment the target field v1 is taken as the initial field u0 from the previous segment. Second, we add an additional term (regularizer) to J, which is proportional to a high-order Laplacian of u0, and which dampens the gradients of u0. We show that suitable values for the segment size and for the regularizer, allow a stable reverse integration of 2D decaying turbulence, with accurate results for more then O(10) turbulent, integral time scales.

Keywords: time reversed integration, parabolic differential equations, adjoint gradient method, two dimensional turbulence

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38 Analysis of Epileptic Electroencephalogram Using Detrended Fluctuation and Recurrence Plots

Authors: Mrinalini Ranjan, Sudheesh Chethil

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Epilepsy is a common neurological disorder characterised by the recurrence of seizures. Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals are complex biomedical signals which exhibit nonlinear and nonstationary behavior. We use two methods 1) Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and 2) Recurrence Plots (RP) to capture this complex behavior of EEG signals. DFA considers fluctuation from local linear trends. Scale invariance of these signals is well captured in the multifractal characterisation using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Analysis of long-range correlations is vital for understanding the dynamics of EEG signals. Correlation properties in the EEG signal are quantified by the calculation of a scaling exponent. We report the existence of two scaling behaviours in the epileptic EEG signals which quantify short and long-range correlations. To illustrate this, we perform DFA on extant ictal (seizure) and interictal (seizure free) datasets of different patients in different channels. We compute the short term and long scaling exponents and report a decrease in short range scaling exponent during seizure as compared to pre-seizure and a subsequent increase during post-seizure period, while the long-term scaling exponent shows an increase during seizure activity. Our calculation of long-term scaling exponent yields a value between 0.5 and 1, thus pointing to power law behaviour of long-range temporal correlations (LRTC). We perform this analysis for multiple channels and report similar behaviour. We find an increase in the long-term scaling exponent during seizure in all channels, which we attribute to an increase in persistent LRTC during seizure. The magnitude of the scaling exponent and its distribution in different channels can help in better identification of areas in brain most affected during seizure activity. The nature of epileptic seizures varies from patient-to-patient. To illustrate this, we report an increase in long-term scaling exponent for some patients which is also complemented by the recurrence plots (RP). RP is a graph that shows the time index of recurrence of a dynamical state. We perform Recurrence Quantitative analysis (RQA) and calculate RQA parameters like diagonal length, entropy, recurrence, determinism, etc. for ictal and interictal datasets. We find that the RQA parameters increase during seizure activity, indicating a transition. We observe that RQA parameters are higher during seizure period as compared to post seizure values, whereas for some patients post seizure values exceeded those during seizure. We attribute this to varying nature of seizure in different patients indicating a different route or mechanism during the transition. Our results can help in better understanding of the characterisation of epileptic EEG signals from a nonlinear analysis.

Keywords: detrended fluctuation, epilepsy, long range correlations, recurrence plots

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37 The Features of the Synergistic Approach in Marketing Management to Regional Level

Authors: Evgeni Baratashvili, Anzor Abralava, Rusudan Kutateladze, Nino Pailodze, Irma Makharashvili, Larisa Takalandze

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Sinergy as a neological term is reflected in modern sciences. It can be found in the various fields of science including the humanities and technical sciences. Among them are biology and medicine, philology, economy and etc. Synergy is the received surplus of marginal high total effect of the groups, consolidated by one common idea, received through endeavored applies of their combined tools, via obtained effect of the separate independent actions of the groups. In the conditions of market economy, according the terms of new communication terminology, synergy effects on management and marketing successfully as well as on purity defense of native language. The well-known scientist’s and public figure’s Academician I. Prangishvili’s works are especially valuable in this aspect. In our opinion the entropy research is linked to his name in our country. In modern economy, the current qualitative changes shows us that the most number of factors and issues have been regrouped. They have a great influence and even define the economic development. The declining abilities of traditional recourses of economic growth have been related on the use of their physical abilities and their moving closer to the edge. Also it is related on the reduced effectiveness, which at the same time increases the expenditures. This means that the leading must be the innovative process system of products and services in the economic growth model. In our opinion the above mentioned system is distinguished with the synergistic approach. It should be noted that the main components of the innovative system are technological, scientific and scientific-technical, social-organizational, managerial and cognitive changes. All of them are reflected on scientific works and inventions in the proper dosages, in know-how and material source. At any stage they create the reproduction cycle. The innovations are different from each other by technologies, origination, design, innovation and quality, subject-content structure, by the the spread of economic processes and the impact of the level of it’s distribution. We have presented a generalized statement of an innovative approach, which is not a single act of innovation but it is also targeted system of the development, implementation, reconciling-exploitation, production, diffusion and commercialization of news. The innovative approaches should be considered as the creation of news, in-depth process of creativity as an innovative alternative to the realization of innovative and entrepreneurial efforts and measures, in order to meet the requirements of the permanent process.

Keywords: economic development, leading process, neological term, synergy

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36 Multiphase Equilibrium Characterization Model For Hydrate-Containing Systems Based On Trust-Region Method Non-Iterative Solving Approach

Authors: Zhuoran Li, Guan Qin

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A robust and efficient compositional equilibrium characterization model for hydrate-containing systems is required, especially for time-critical simulations such as subsea pipeline flow assurance analysis, compositional simulation in hydrate reservoirs etc. A multiphase flash calculation framework, which combines Gibbs energy minimization function and cubic plus association (CPA) EoS, is developed to describe the highly non-ideal phase behavior of hydrate-containing systems. A non-iterative eigenvalue problem-solving approach for the trust-region sub-problem is selected to guarantee efficiency. The developed flash model is based on the state-of-the-art objective function proposed by Michelsen to minimize the Gibbs energy of the multiphase system. It is conceivable that a hydrate-containing system always contains polar components (such as water and hydrate inhibitors), introducing hydrogen bonds to influence phase behavior. Thus, the cubic plus associating (CPA) EoS is utilized to compute the thermodynamic parameters. The solid solution theory proposed by van der Waals and Platteeuw is applied to represent hydrate phase parameters. The trust-region method combined with the trust-region sub-problem non-iterative eigenvalue problem-solving approach is utilized to ensure fast convergence. The developed multiphase flash model's accuracy performance is validated by three available models (one published and two commercial models). Hundreds of published hydrate-containing system equilibrium experimental data are collected to act as the standard group for the accuracy test. The accuracy comparing results show that our model has superior performances over two models and comparable calculation accuracy to CSMGem. Efficiency performance test also has been carried out. Because the trust-region method can determine the optimization step's direction and size simultaneously, fast solution progress can be obtained. The comparison results show that less iteration number is needed to optimize the objective function by utilizing trust-region methods than applying line search methods. The non-iterative eigenvalue problem approach also performs faster computation speed than the conventional iterative solving algorithm for the trust-region sub-problem, further improving the calculation efficiency. A new thermodynamic framework of the multiphase flash model for the hydrate-containing system has been constructed in this work. Sensitive analysis and numerical experiments have been carried out to prove the accuracy and efficiency of this model. Furthermore, based on the current thermodynamic model in the oil and gas industry, implementing this model is simple.

Keywords: equation of state, hydrates, multiphase equilibrium, trust-region method

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35 Rehabilitation Team after Brain Damages as Complex System Integrating Consciousness

Authors: Olga Maksakova

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A work with unconscious patients after acute brain damages besides special knowledge and practical skills of all the participants requires a very specific organization. A lot of said about team approach in neurorehabilitation, usually as for outpatient mode. Rehabilitologists deal with fixed patient problems or deficits (motion, speech, cognitive or emotional disorder). Team-building means superficial paradigm of management psychology. Linear mode of teamwork fits casual relationships there. Cases with deep altered states of consciousness (vegetative states, coma, and confusion) require non-linear mode of teamwork: recovery of consciousness might not be the goal due to phenomenon uncertainty. Rehabilitation team as Semi-open Complex System includes the patient as a part. Patient's response pattern becomes formed not only with brain deficits but questions-stimuli, context, and inquiring person. Teamwork is sourcing of phenomenology knowledge of patient's processes as Third-person approach is replaced with Second- and after First-person approaches. Here is a chance for real-time change. Patient’s contacts with his own body and outward things create a basement for restoration of consciousness. The most important condition is systematic feedbacks to any minimal movement or vegetative signal of the patient. Up to now, recovery work with the most severe contingent is carried out in the mode of passive physical interventions, while an effective rehabilitation team should include specially trained psychologists and psychotherapists. It is they who are able to create a network of feedbacks with the patient and inter-professional ones building up the team. Characteristics of ‘Team-Patient’ system (TPS) are energy, entropy, and complexity. Impairment of consciousness as the absence of linear contact appears together with a loss of essential functions (low energy), vegetative-visceral fits (excessive energy and low order), motor agitation (excessive energy and excessive order), etc. Techniques of teamwork are different in these cases for resulting optimization of the system condition. Directed regulation of the system complexity is one of the recovery tools. Different signs of awareness appear as a result of system self-organization. Joint meetings are an important part of teamwork. Regular or event-related discussions form the language of inter-professional communication, as well as the patient's shared mental model. Analysis of complex communication process in TPS may be useful for creation of the general theory of consciousness.

Keywords: rehabilitation team, urgent rehabilitation, severe brain damage, consciousness disorders, complex system theory

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34 Strategic Asset Allocation Optimization: Enhancing Portfolio Performance Through PCA-Driven Multi-Objective Modeling

Authors: Ghita Benayad

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Asset allocation, which affects the long-term profitability of portfolios by distributing assets to fulfill a range of investment objectives, is the cornerstone of investment management in the dynamic and complicated world of financial markets. This paper offers a technique for optimizing strategic asset allocation with the goal of improving portfolio performance by addressing the inherent complexity and uncertainty of the market through the use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in a multi-objective modeling framework. The study's first section starts with a critical evaluation of conventional asset allocation techniques, highlighting how poorly they are able to capture the intricate relationships between assets and the volatile nature of the market. In order to overcome these challenges, the project suggests a PCA-driven methodology that isolates important characteristics influencing asset returns by decreasing the dimensionality of the investment universe. This decrease provides a stronger basis for asset allocation decisions by facilitating a clearer understanding of market structures and behaviors. Using a multi-objective optimization model, the project builds on this foundation by taking into account a number of performance metrics at once, including risk minimization, return maximization, and the accomplishment of predetermined investment goals like regulatory compliance or sustainability standards. This model provides a more comprehensive understanding of investor preferences and portfolio performance in comparison to conventional single-objective optimization techniques. While applying the PCA-driven multi-objective optimization model to historical market data, aiming to construct portfolios better under different market situations. As compared to portfolios produced from conventional asset allocation methodologies, the results show that portfolios optimized using the proposed method display improved risk-adjusted returns, more resilience to market downturns, and better alignment with specified investment objectives. The study also looks at the implications of this PCA technique for portfolio management, including the prospect that it might give investors a more advanced framework for navigating financial markets. The findings suggest that by combining PCA with multi-objective optimization, investors may obtain a more strategic and informed asset allocation that is responsive to both market conditions and individual investment preferences. In conclusion, this capstone project improves the field of financial engineering by creating a sophisticated asset allocation optimization model that integrates PCA with multi-objective optimization. In addition to raising concerns about the condition of asset allocation today, the proposed method of portfolio management opens up new avenues for research and application in the area of investment techniques.

Keywords: asset allocation, portfolio optimization, principle component analysis, multi-objective modelling, financial market

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33 Willingness to Pay for Improvements of MSW Disposal: Views from Online Survey

Authors: Amornchai Challcharoenwattana, Chanathip Pharino

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Rising amount of MSW every day, maximizing material diversions from landfills via recycling is a prefer method to land dumping. Characteristic of Thai MSW is classified as 40 -60 per cent compostable wastes while potentially recyclable materials in waste streams are composed of plastics, papers, glasses, and metals. However, rate of material recovery from MSW, excluding composting or biogas generation, in Thailand is still low. Thailand’s recycling rate in 2010 was only 20.5 per cent. Central government as well as local governments in Thailand have tried to curb this problem by charging some of MSW management fees at the users. However, the fee is often too low to promote MSW minimization. The objective of this paper is to identify levels of willingness-to-pay (WTP) for MSW recycling in different social structures with expected outcome of sustainable MSW managements for different town settlements to maximize MSW recycling pertaining to each town’s potential. The method of eliciting WTP is a payment card. The questionnaire was deployed using online survey during December 2012. Responses were categorized into respondents living in Bangkok, living in other municipality areas, or outside municipality area. The responses were analysed using descriptive statistics, and multiple linear regression analysis to identify relationships and factors that could influence high or low WTP. During the survey period, there were 168 filled questionnaires from total 689 visits. However, only 96 questionnaires could be usable. Among respondents in the usable questionnaires, 36 respondents lived in within the boundary of Bangkok Metropolitan Administration while 45 respondents lived in the chartered areas that were classified as other municipality but not in BMA. Most of respondents were well-off as 75 respondents reported positive monthly cash flow (77.32%), 15 respondents reported neutral monthly cash flow (15.46%) while 7 respondent reported negative monthly cash flow (7.22%). For WTP data including WTP of 0 baht with valid responses, ranking from the highest means of WTP to the lowest WTP of respondents by geographical locations for good MSW management were Bangkok (196 baht/month), municipalities (154 baht/month), and non-urbanized towns (111 baht/month). In-depth analysis was conducted to analyse whether there are additional room for further increase of MSW management fees from the current payment that each correspondent is currently paying. The result from multiple-regression analysis suggested that the following factors could impacts the increase or decrease of WTP: incomes, age, and gender. Overall, the outcome of this study suggests that survey respondents are likely to support improvement of MSW treatments that are not solely relying on landfilling technique. Recommendations for further studies are to obtain larger sample sizes in order to improve statistical powers and to provide better accuracy of WTP study.

Keywords: MSW, willingness to pay, payment card, waste seperation

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32 Budgetary Performance Model for Managing Pavement Maintenance

Authors: Vivek Hokam, Vishrut Landge

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An ideal maintenance program for an industrial road network is one that would maintain all sections at a sufficiently high level of functional and structural conditions. However, due to various constraints such as budget, manpower and equipment, it is not possible to carry out maintenance on all the needy industrial road sections within a given planning period. A rational and systematic priority scheme needs to be employed to select and schedule industrial road sections for maintenance. Priority analysis is a multi-criteria process that determines the best ranking list of sections for maintenance based on several factors. In priority setting, difficult decisions are required to be made for selection of sections for maintenance. It is more important to repair a section with poor functional conditions which includes uncomfortable ride etc. or poor structural conditions i.e. sections those are in danger of becoming structurally unsound. It would seem therefore that any rational priority setting approach must consider the relative importance of functional and structural condition of the section. The maintenance priority index and pavement performance models tend to focus mainly on the pavement condition, traffic criteria etc. There is a need to develop the model which is suitably used with respect to limited budget provisions for maintenance of pavement. Linear programming is one of the most popular and widely used quantitative techniques. A linear programming model provides an efficient method for determining an optimal decision chosen from a large number of possible decisions. The optimum decision is one that meets a specified objective of management, subject to various constraints and restrictions. The objective is mainly minimization of maintenance cost of roads in industrial area. In order to determine the objective function for analysis of distress model it is necessary to fix the realistic data into a formulation. Each type of repair is to be quantified in a number of stretches by considering 1000 m as one stretch. A stretch considered under study is having 3750 m length. The quantity has to be put into an objective function for maximizing the number of repairs in a stretch related to quantity. The distress observed in this stretch are potholes, surface cracks, rutting and ravelling. The distress data is measured manually by observing each distress level on a stretch of 1000 m. The maintenance and rehabilitation measured that are followed currently are based on subjective judgments. Hence, there is a need to adopt a scientific approach in order to effectively use the limited resources. It is also necessary to determine the pavement performance and deterioration prediction relationship with more accurate and economic benefits of road networks with respect to vehicle operating cost. The infrastructure of road network should have best results expected from available funds. In this paper objective function for distress model is determined by linear programming and deterioration model considering overloading is discussed.

Keywords: budget, maintenance, deterioration, priority

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31 Possibilities of Psychodiagnostics in the Context of Highly Challenging Situations in Military Leadership

Authors: Markéta Chmelíková, David Ullrich, Iva Burešová

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The paper maps the possibilities and limits of diagnosing selected personality and performance characteristics of military leadership and psychology students in the context of coping with challenging situations. Individuals vary greatly inter-individually in their ability to effectively manage extreme situations, yet existing diagnostic tools are often criticized mainly for their low predictive power. Nowadays, every modern army focuses primarily on the systematic minimization of potential risks, including the prediction of desirable forms of behavior and the performance of military commanders. The context of military leadership is well known for its life-threatening nature. Therefore, it is crucial to research stress load in the specific context of military leadership for the purpose of possible anticipation of human failure in managing extreme situations of military leadership. The aim of the submitted pilot study, using an experiment of 24 hours duration, is to verify the possibilities of a specific combination of psychodiagnostic to predict people who possess suitable equipment for coping with increased stress load. In our pilot study, we conducted an experiment of 24 hours duration with an experimental group (N=13) in the bomb shelter and a control group (N=11) in a classroom. Both groups were represented by military leadership students (N=11) and psychology students (N=13). Both groups were equalized in terms of study type and gender. Participants were administered the following test battery of personality characteristics: Big Five Inventory 2 (BFI-2), Short Dark Triad (SD-3), Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ), Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS), and Impulsive Behavior Scale (UPPS-P). This test battery was administered only once at the beginning of the experiment. Along with this, they were administered a test battery consisting of the Test of Attention (d2) and the Bourdon test four times overall with 6 hours ranges. To better simulate an extreme situation – we tried to induce sleep deprivation - participants were required to try not to fall asleep throughout the experiment. Despite the assumption that a stay in an underground bomb shelter will manifest in impaired cognitive performance, this expectation has been significantly confirmed in only one measurement, which can be interpreted as marginal in the context of multiple testing. This finding is a fundamental insight into the issue of stress management in extreme situations, which is crucial for effective military leadership. The results suggest that a 24-hour stay in a shelter, together with sleep deprivation, does not seem to simulate sufficient stress for an individual, which would be reflected in the level of cognitive performance. In the context of these findings, it would be interesting in future to extend the diagnostic battery with physiological indicators of stress, such as: heart rate, stress score, physical stress, mental stress ect.

Keywords: bomb shelter, extreme situation, military leadership, psychodiagnostic

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30 Formation of the Water Assisted Supramolecular Assembly in the Transition Structure of Organocatalytic Asymmetric Aldol Reaction: A DFT Study

Authors: Kuheli Chakrabarty, Animesh Ghosh, Atanu Roy, Gourab Kanti Das

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Aldol reaction is an important class of carbon-carbon bond forming reactions. One of the popular ways to impose asymmetry in aldol reaction is the introduction of chiral auxiliary that binds the approaching reactants and create dissymmetry in the reaction environment, which finally evolves to enantiomeric excess in the aldol products. The last decade witnesses the usage of natural amino acids as chiral auxiliary to control the stereoselectivity in various carbon-carbon bond forming processes. In this context, L-proline was found to be an effective organocatalyst in asymmetric aldol additions. In last few decades the use of water as solvent or co-solvent in asymmetric organocatalytic reaction is increased sharply. Simple amino acids like L-proline does not catalyze asymmetric aldol reaction in aqueous medium not only that, In organic solvent medium high catalytic loading (~30 mol%) is required to achieve moderate to high asymmetric induction. In this context, huge efforts have been made to modify L-proline and 4-hydroxy-L-proline to prepare organocatalyst for aqueous medium asymmetric aldol reaction. Here, we report the result of our DFT calculations on asymmetric aldol reaction of benzaldehyde, p-NO2 benzaldehyde and t-butyraldehyde with a number of ketones using L-proline hydrazide as organocatalyst in wet solvent free condition. Gaussian 09 program package and Gauss View program were used for the present work. Geometry optimizations were performed using B3LYP hybrid functional and 6-31G(d,p) basis set. Transition structures were confirmed by hessian calculation and IRC calculation. As the reactions were carried out in solvent free condition, No solvent effect were studied theoretically. Present study has revealed for the first time, the direct involvement of two water molecules in the aldol transition structures. In the TS, the enamine and the aldehyde is connected through hydrogen bonding by the assistance of two intervening water molecules forming a supramolecular network. Formation of this type of supramolecular assembly is possible due to the presence of protonated -NH2 group in the L-proline hydrazide moiety, which is responsible for the favorable entropy contribution to the aldol reaction. It is also revealed from the present study that, water assisted TS is energetically more favorable than the TS without involving any water molecule. It can be concluded from this study that, insertion of polar group capable of hydrogen bond formation in the L-proline skeleton can lead to a favorable aldol reaction with significantly high enantiomeric excess in wet solvent free condition by reducing the activation barrier of this reaction.

Keywords: aldol reaction, DFT, organocatalysis, transition structure

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29 The Properties of Risk-based Approaches to Asset Allocation Using Combined Metrics of Portfolio Volatility and Kurtosis: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

Authors: Maria Debora Braga, Luigi Riso, Maria Grazia Zoia

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Risk-based approaches to asset allocation are portfolio construction methods that do not rely on the input of expected returns for the asset classes in the investment universe and only use risk information. They include the Minimum Variance Strategy (MV strategy), the traditional (volatility-based) Risk Parity Strategy (SRP strategy), the Most Diversified Portfolio Strategy (MDP strategy) and, for many, the Equally Weighted Strategy (EW strategy). All the mentioned approaches were based on portfolio volatility as a reference risk measure but in 2023, the Kurtosis-based Risk Parity strategy (KRP strategy) and the Minimum Kurtosis strategy (MK strategy) were introduced. Understandably, they used the fourth root of the portfolio-fourth moment as a proxy for portfolio kurtosis to work with a homogeneous function of degree one. This paper contributes mainly theoretically and methodologically to the framework of risk-based asset allocation approaches with two steps forward. First, a new and more flexible objective function considering a linear combination (with positive coefficients that sum to one) of portfolio volatility and portfolio kurtosis is used to alternatively serve a risk minimization goal or a homogeneous risk distribution goal. Hence, the new basic idea consists in extending the achievement of typical risk-based approaches’ goals to a combined risk measure. To give the rationale behind operating with such a risk measure, it is worth remembering that volatility and kurtosis are expressions of uncertainty, to be read as dispersion of returns around the mean and that both preserve adherence to a symmetric framework and consideration for the entire returns distribution as well, but also that they differ from each other in that the former captures the “normal” / “ordinary” dispersion of returns, while the latter is able to catch the huge dispersion. Therefore, the combined risk metric that uses two individual metrics focused on the same phenomena but differently sensitive to its intensity allows the asset manager to express, in the context of an objective function by varying the “relevance coefficient” associated with the individual metrics, alternatively, a wide set of plausible investment goals for the portfolio construction process while serving investors differently concerned with tail risk and traditional risk. Since this is the first study that also implements risk-based approaches using a combined risk measure, it becomes of fundamental importance to investigate the portfolio effects triggered by this innovation. The paper also offers a second contribution. Until the recent advent of the MK strategy and the KRP strategy, efforts to highlight interesting properties of risk-based approaches were inevitably directed towards the traditional MV strategy and SRP strategy. Previous literature established an increasing order in terms of portfolio volatility, starting from the MV strategy, through the SRP strategy, arriving at the EQ strategy and provided the mathematical proof for the “equalization effect” concerning marginal risks when the MV strategy is considered, and concerning risk contributions when the SRP strategy is considered. Regarding the validity of similar conclusions when referring to the MK strategy and KRP strategy, the development of a theoretical demonstration is still pending. This paper fills this gap.

Keywords: risk parity, portfolio kurtosis, risk diversification, asset allocation

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28 Catalytic Ammonia Decomposition: Cobalt-Molybdenum Molar Ratio Effect on Hydrogen Production

Authors: Elvis Medina, Alejandro Karelovic, Romel Jiménez

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Catalytic ammonia decomposition represents an attractive alternative due to its high H₂ content (17.8% w/w), a product stream free of COₓ, among others; however, challenges need to be addressed for its consolidation as an H₂ chemical storage technology, especially, those focused on the synthesis of efficient bimetallic catalytic systems, as an alternative to the price and scarcity of ruthenium, the most active catalyst reported. In this sense, from the perspective of rational catalyst design, adjusting the main catalytic activity descriptor, a screening of supported catalysts with different compositional settings of cobalt-molybdenum metals is presented to evaluate their effect on the catalytic decomposition rate of ammonia. Subsequently, a kinetic study on the supported monometallic Co and Mo catalysts, as well as on the bimetallic CoMo catalyst with the highest activity is shown. The synthesis of catalysts supported on γ-alumina was carried out using the Charge Enhanced Dry Impregnation (CEDI) method, all with a 5% w/w loading metal. Seeking to maintain uniform dispersion, the catalysts were oxidized and activated (In-situ activation) using a flow of anhydrous air and hydrogen, respectively, under the same conditions: 40 ml min⁻¹ and 5 °C min⁻¹ from room temperature to 600 °C. Catalytic tests were carried out in a fixed-bed reactor, confirming the absence of transport limitations, as well as an Approach to equilibrium (< 1 x 10⁻⁴). The reaction rate on all catalysts was measured between 400 and 500 ºC at 53.09 kPa NH3. The synergy theoretically (DFT) reported for bimetallic catalysts was confirmed experimentally. Specifically, it was observed that the catalyst composed mainly of 75 mol% cobalt proved to be the most active in the experiments, followed by the monometallic cobalt and molybdenum catalysts, in this order of activity as referred to in the literature. A kinetic study was performed at 10.13 – 101.32 kPa NH3 and at four equidistant temperatures between 437 and 475 °C the data were adjusted to an LHHW-type model, which considered the desorption of nitrogen atoms from the active phase surface as the rate determining step (RDS). The regression analysis were carried out under an integral regime, using a minimization algorithm based on SLSQP. The physical meaning of the parameters adjusted in the kinetic model, such as the RDS rate constant (k₅) and the lumped adsorption constant of the quasi-equilibrated steps (α) was confirmed through their Arrhenius and Van't Hoff-type behavior (R² > 0.98), respectively. From an energetic perspective, the activation energy for cobalt, cobalt-molybdenum, and molybdenum was 115.2, 106.8, and 177.5 kJ mol⁻¹, respectively. With this evidence and considering the volcano shape described by the ammonia decomposition rate in relation to the metal composition ratio, the synergistic behavior of the system is clearly observed. However, since characterizations by XRD and TEM were inconclusive, the formation of intermetallic compounds should be still verified using HRTEM-EDS. From this point onwards, our objective is to incorporate parameters into the kinetic expressions that consider both compositional and structural elements and explore how these can maximize or influence H₂ production.

Keywords: CEDI, hydrogen carrier, LHHW, RDS

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27 Sustainability in Space: Material Efficiency in Space Missions

Authors: Hamda M. Al-Ali

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From addressing fundamental questions about the history of the solar system to exploring other planets for any signs of life have always been the core of human space exploration. This triggered humans to explore whether other planets such as Mars could support human life on them. Therefore, many planned space missions to other planets have been designed and conducted to examine the feasibility of human survival on them. However, space missions are expensive and consume a large number of various resources to be successful. To overcome these problems, material efficiency shall be maximized through the use of reusable launch vehicles (RLV) rather than disposable and expendable ones. Material efficiency is defined as a way to achieve service requirements using fewer materials to reduce CO2 emissions from industrial processes. Materials such as aluminum-lithium alloys, steel, Kevlar, and reinforced carbon-carbon composites used in the manufacturing of spacecrafts could be reused in closed-loop cycles directly or by adding a protective coat. Material efficiency is a fundamental principle of a circular economy. The circular economy aims to cutback waste and reduce pollution through maximizing material efficiency so that businesses can succeed and endure. Five strategies have been proposed to improve material efficiency in the space industry, which includes waste minimization, introduce Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to measure material efficiency, and introduce policies and legislations to improve material efficiency in the space sector. Another strategy to boost material efficiency is through maximizing resource and energy efficiency through material reusability. Furthermore, the environmental effects associated with the rapid growth in the number of space missions include black carbon emissions that lead to climate change. The levels of emissions must be tracked and tackled to ensure the safe utilization of space in the future. The aim of this research paper is to examine and suggest effective methods used to improve material efficiency in space missions so that space and Earth become more environmentally and economically sustainable. The objectives used to fulfill this aim are to identify the materials used in space missions that are suitable to be reused in closed-loop cycles considering material efficiency indicators and circular economy concepts. An explanation of how spacecraft materials could be re-used as well as propose strategies to maximize material efficiency in order to make RLVs possible so that access to space becomes affordable and reliable is provided. Also, the economic viability of the RLVs is examined to show the extent to which the use of RLVs has on the reduction of space mission costs. The environmental and economic implications of the increase in the number of space missions as a result of the use of RLVs are also discussed. These research questions are studied through detailed critical analysis of the literature, such as published reports, books, scientific articles, and journals. A combination of keywords such as material efficiency, circular economy, RLVs, and spacecraft materials were used to search for appropriate literature.

Keywords: access to space, circular economy, material efficiency, reusable launch vehicles, spacecraft materials

Procedia PDF Downloads 84
26 Preparation of Metallic Nanoparticles with the Use of Reagents of Natural Origin

Authors: Anna Drabczyk, Sonia Kudlacik-Kramarczyk, Dagmara Malina, Bozena Tyliszczak, Agnieszka Sobczak-Kupiec

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Nowadays, nano-size materials are very popular group of materials among scientists. What is more, these materials find an application in a wide range of various areas. Therefore constantly increasing demand for nanomaterials including metallic nanoparticles such as silver of gold ones is observed. Therefore, new routes of their preparation are sought. Considering potential application of nanoparticles, it is important to select an adequate methodology of their preparation because it determines their size and shape. Among the most commonly applied methods of preparation of nanoparticles chemical and electrochemical techniques are leading. However, currently growing attention is directed into the biological or biochemical aspects of syntheses of metallic nanoparticles. This is associated with a trend of developing of new routes of preparation of given compounds according to the principles of green chemistry. These principles involve e.g. the reduction of the use of toxic compounds in the synthesis as well as the reduction of the energy demand or minimization of the generated waste. As a result, a growing popularity of the use of such components as natural plant extracts, infusions or essential oils is observed. Such natural substances may be used both as a reducing agent of metal ions and as a stabilizing agent of formed nanoparticles therefore they can replace synthetic compounds previously used for the reduction of metal ions or for the stabilization of obtained nanoparticles suspension. Methods that proceed in the presence of previously mentioned natural compounds are environmentally friendly and proceed without the application of any toxic reagents. Methodology: Presented research involves preparation of silver nanoparticles using selected plant extracts, e.g. artichoke extract. Extracts of natural origin were used as reducing and stabilizing agents at the same time. Furthermore, syntheses were carried out in the presence of additional polymeric stabilizing agent. Next, such features of obtained suspensions of nanoparticles as total antioxidant activity as well as content of phenolic compounds have been characterized. First of the mentioned studies involved the reaction with DPPH (2,2-Diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl) radical. The content of phenolic compounds was determined using Folin-Ciocalteu technique. Furthermore, an essential issue was also the determining of the stability of formed suspensions of nanoparticles. Conclusions: In the research it was demonstrated that metallic nanoparticles may be obtained using plant extracts or infusions as stabilizing or reducing agent. The methodology applied, i.e. a type of plant extract used during the synthesis, had an impact on the content of phenolic compounds as well as on the size and polydispersity of obtained nanoparticles. What is more, it is possible to prepare nano-size particles that will be characterized by properties desirable from the viewpoint of their potential application and such an effect may be achieved with the use of non-toxic reagents of natural origin. Furthermore, proposed methodology stays in line with the principles of green chemistry.

Keywords: green chemistry principles, metallic nanoparticles, plant extracts, stabilization of nanoparticles

Procedia PDF Downloads 102
25 Medical Dressing Induced Digital Ischemia in Patient with Congenital Insensitivity to Pain and Anhidrosis

Authors: Abdulwhab Alotaibi, Abdullah Alzahrani, Ziyad Bokhari, Abdulelah Alghamdi

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First described in 1975 by Dr. Miller, Medical dressings are uncommon but possible cause of hand digital ischemia due the tourniquet-like effect. The incident of this complication has been reported across wide range of age-groups, yet it seems like that the pediatric population are specifically vulnerable. Multiple dressing types were reported to have caused ischemic injury, such as elastic wrap, tubular gauze, and self-adherent dressings. We present a case of medical dressing induced digital ischemia in patient with Congenital insensitivity to pain and anhidrosis (CIPA), which further challenge the discovery of the condition. An 8-year-old girl known case of CIPA. Brought by her mother to the ER after nail bed injury, which she managed by application of elastic wrap that was left for 24 hours. When the mother found out she immediately removed the elastic band, and noticed the fingertip was black and cold with tense bullae. The color then changed later when she arrived to the ER to dark purple with bluish discoloration on the tip. On examination there was well demarcated tense bullae on the distal right fifth finger. Neurovascular intact, pulse oximetry on distal digit 100%, capillary refill time was delayed. She was seen under Plastic surgery and conservative management recommended, and patient was discharged with safety netting. Two days later the patient came as follow-up visit at which her condition demonstrated significant improvement, the bullae has since ruptured leaving behind sloughed skin, capillary refill and pulse oximetry were both within normal limits, sensory function couldn’t be assessed but her motor function and ROM were normal, topical bacitracin and bandage dressings were applied for the eroded skin. Patient was scheduled for a follow-up in 2 weeks. Preventatively it’s advisable to avoid the commonly implicated dressings such as elastic, tubular gauze or self-adherent wraps in hand or digital injuries when possible, but in cases where the use of these dressings is of necessity the appropriate precautions must be taken, Dr. Makarewich proposed the following 5 measures to help minimize the incidence of the injury: 1-Unwrapping 12 inches of the dressing before rolling the injured finger. 2-Wrapping from distal to proximal with minimal tension to avoid vascular embarrassment. 3-The use of 5-25 inch to overlap the entire wrap. 4-Maintaining light pressure over the wrap to allow adherence of the dressing. 5-Minimization of the number of layers used to wrap the affected digit. Also assessing the capillary refill after the application can help in determining the patency of the supplying blood vessels. It’s also important to selectively determine if the patient is a candidate for conservative management, as tailored approach can help in maximizing the positive outcomes for our patients.

Keywords: congenital insensitivity to pain, digital ischemia, medical dressing, conservative management

Procedia PDF Downloads 38
24 Biodsorption as an Efficient Technology for the Removal of Phosphate, Nitrate and Sulphate Anions in Industrial Wastewater

Authors: Angel Villabona-Ortíz, Candelaria Tejada-Tovar, Andrea Viera-Devoz

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Wastewater treatment is an issue of vital importance in these times where the impacts of human activities are most evident, which have become essential tasks for the normal functioning of society. However, they put entire ecosystems at risk by time destroying the possibility of sustainable development. Various conventional technologies are used to remove pollutants from water. Agroindustrial waste is the product with the potential to be used as a renewable raw material for the production of energy and chemical products, and their use is beneficial since products with added value are generated from materials that were not used before. Considering the benefits that the use of residual biomass brings, this project proposes the use of agro-industrial residues from corn crops for the production of natural adsorbents whose purpose is aimed at the remediation of contaminated water bodies with large loads of nutrients. The adsorption capacity of two biomaterials obtained from the processing of corn stalks was evaluated by batch system tests. Biochar impregnated with sulfuric acid and thermally activated was synthesized. On the other hand, the cellulose was extracted from the corn stalks and chemically modified with cetyltrimethylammonium chloride in order to quaternize the surface of the adsorbent. The adsorbents obtained were characterized by thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), infrared spectrometry with Fourier Transform (FTIR), analysis by Brunauer, Emmett and Teller method (BET) and X-ray Diffraction analysis ( XRD), which showed favorable characteristics for the cellulose extraction process. Higher adsorption capacities of the nutrients were obtained with the use of biochar, with phosphate being the anion with the best removal percentages. The effect of the initial adsorbate concentration was evaluated, with which it was shown that the Freundlich isotherm better describes the adsorption process in most systems. The adsorbent-phosphate / nitrate systems fit better to the Pseudo Primer Order kinetic model, while the adsorbent-sulfate systems showed a better fit to the Pseudo second-order model, which indicates that there are both physical and chemical interactions in the process. Multicomponent adsorption tests revealed that phosphate anions have a higher affinity for both adsorbents. On the other hand, the thermodynamic parameters standard enthalpy (ΔH °) and standard entropy (ΔS °) with negative results indicate the exothermic nature of the process, whereas the ascending values of standard Gibbs free energy (ΔG °). The adsorption process of anions with biocarbon and modified cellulose is spontaneous and exothermic. The use of the evaluated biomateriles is recommended for the treatment of industrial effluents contaminated with sulfate, nitrate and phosphate anions.

Keywords: adsorption, biochar, modified cellulose, corn stalks

Procedia PDF Downloads 154
23 Dynamic Exergy Analysis for the Built Environment: Fixed or Variable Reference State

Authors: Valentina Bonetti

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Exergy analysis successfully helps optimizing processes in various sectors. In the built environment, a second-law approach can enhance potential interactions between constructions and their surrounding environment and minimise fossil fuel requirements. Despite the research done in this field in the last decades, practical applications are hard to encounter, and few integrated exergy simulators are available for building designers. Undoubtedly, an obstacle for the diffusion of exergy methods is the strong dependency of results on the definition of its 'reference state', a highly controversial issue. Since exergy is the combination of energy and entropy by means of a reference state (also called "reference environment", or "dead state"), the reference choice is crucial. Compared to other classical applications, buildings present two challenging elements: They operate very near to the reference state, which means that small variations have relevant impacts, and their behaviour is dynamical in nature. Not surprisingly then, the reference state definition for the built environment is still debated, especially in the case of dynamic assessments. Among the several characteristics that need to be defined, a crucial decision for a dynamic analysis is between a fixed reference environment (constant in time) and a variable state, which fluctuations follow the local climate. Even if the latter selection is prevailing in research, and recommended by recent and widely-diffused guidelines, the fixed reference has been analytically demonstrated as the only choice which defines exergy as a proper function of the state in a fluctuating environment. This study investigates the impact of that crucial choice: Fixed or variable reference. The basic element of the building energy chain, the envelope, is chosen as the object of investigation as common to any building analysis. Exergy fluctuations in the building envelope of a case study (a typical house located in a Mediterranean climate) are confronted for each time-step of a significant summer day, when the building behaviour is highly dynamical. Exergy efficiencies and fluxes are not familiar numbers, and thus, the more easy-to-imagine concept of exergy storage is used to summarize the results. Trends obtained with a fixed and a variable reference (outside air) are compared, and their meaning is discussed under the light of the underpinning dynamical energy analysis. As a conclusion, a fixed reference state is considered the best choice for dynamic exergy analysis. Even if the fixed reference is generally only contemplated as a simpler selection, and the variable state is often stated as more accurate without explicit justifications, the analytical considerations supporting the adoption of a fixed reference are confirmed by the usefulness and clarity of interpretation of its results. Further discussion is needed to address the conflict between the evidence supporting a fixed reference state and the wide adoption of a fluctuating one. A more robust theoretical framework, including selection criteria of the reference state for dynamical simulations, could push the development of integrated dynamic tools and thus spread exergy analysis for the built environment across the common practice.

Keywords: exergy, reference state, dynamic, building

Procedia PDF Downloads 201
22 Use of Analytic Hierarchy Process for Plant Site Selection

Authors: Muzaffar Shaikh, Shoaib Shaikh, Mark Moyou, Gaby Hawat

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This paper presents the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in evaluating the site selection of a new plant by a corporation. Due to intense competition at a global level, multinational corporations are continuously striving to minimize production and shipping costs of their products. One key factor that plays significant role in cost minimization is where the production plant is located. In the U.S. for example, labor and land costs continue to be very high while they are much cheaper in countries such as India, China, Indonesia, etc. This is why many multinational U.S. corporations (e.g. General Electric, Caterpillar Inc., Ford, General Motors, etc.), have shifted their manufacturing plants outside. The continued expansion of the Internet and its availability along with technological advances in computer hardware and software all around the globe have facilitated U.S. corporations to expand abroad as they seek to reduce production cost. In particular, management of multinational corporations is constantly engaged in concentrating on countries at a broad level, or cities within specific countries where certain or all parts of their end products or the end products themselves can be manufactured cheaper than in the U.S. AHP is based on preference ratings of a specific decision maker who can be the Chief Operating Officer of a company or his/her designated data analytics engineer. It serves as a tool to first evaluate the plant site selection criteria and second, alternate plant sites themselves against these criteria in a systematic manner. Examples of site selection criteria are: Transportation Modes, Taxes, Energy Modes, Labor Force Availability, Labor Rates, Raw Material Availability, Political Stability, Land Costs, etc. As a necessary first step under AHP, evaluation criteria and alternate plant site countries are identified. Depending upon the fidelity of analysis, specific cities within a country can also be chosen as alternative facility locations. AHP experience in this type of analysis indicates that the initial analysis can be performed at the Country-level. Once a specific country is chosen via AHP, secondary analyses can be performed by selecting specific cities or counties within a country. AHP analysis is usually based on preferred ratings of a decision-maker (e.g., 1 to 5, 1 to 7, or 1 to 9, etc., where 1 means least preferred and a 5 means most preferred). The decision-maker assigns preferred ratings first, criterion vs. criterion and creates a Criteria Matrix. Next, he/she assigns preference ratings by alternative vs. alternative against each criterion. Once this data is collected, AHP is applied to first get the rank-ordering of criteria. Next, rank-ordering of alternatives is done against each criterion resulting in an Alternative Matrix. Finally, overall rank ordering of alternative facility locations is obtained by matrix multiplication of Alternative Matrix and Criteria Matrix. The most practical aspect of AHP is the ‘what if’ analysis that the decision-maker can conduct after the initial results to provide valuable sensitivity information of specific criteria to other criteria and alternatives.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, multinational corporations, plant site selection, preference ratings

Procedia PDF Downloads 260
21 Energy Efficiency of Secondary Refrigeration with Phase Change Materials and Impact on Greenhouse Gases Emissions

Authors: Michel Pons, Anthony Delahaye, Laurence Fournaison

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Secondary refrigeration consists of splitting large-size direct-cooling units into volume-limited primary cooling units complemented by secondary loops for transporting and distributing cold. Such a design reduces the refrigerant leaks, which represents a source of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. However, inserting the secondary circuit between the primary unit and the ‘users’ heat exchangers (UHX) increases the energy consumption of the whole process, which induces an indirect emission of greenhouse gases. It is thus important to check whether that efficiency loss is sufficiently limited for the change to be globally beneficial to the environment. Among the likely secondary fluids, phase change slurries offer several advantages: they transport latent heat, they stabilize the heat exchange temperature, and the formerly evaporators still can be used as UHX. The temperature level can also be adapted to the desired cooling application. Herein, the slurry {ice in mono-propylene-glycol solution} (melting temperature Tₘ of 6°C) is considered for food preservation, and the slurry {mixed hydrate of CO₂ + tetra-n-butyl-phosphonium-bromide in aqueous solution of this salt + CO₂} (melting temperature Tₘ of 13°C) is considered for air conditioning. For the sake of thermodynamic consistency, the analysis encompasses the whole process, primary cooling unit plus secondary slurry loop, and the various properties of the slurries, including their non-Newtonian viscosity. The design of the whole process is optimized according to the properties of the chosen slurry and under explicit constraints. As a first constraint, all the units must deliver the same cooling power to the user. The other constraints concern the heat exchanges areas, which are prescribed, and the flow conditions, which prevent deposition of the solid particles transported in the slurry, and their agglomeration. Minimization of the total energy consumption leads to the optimal design. In addition, the results are analyzed in terms of exergy losses, which allows highlighting the couplings between the primary unit and the secondary loop. One important difference between the ice-slurry and the mixed-hydrate one is the presence of gaseous carbon dioxide in the latter case. When the mixed-hydrate crystals melt in the UHX, CO₂ vapor is generated at a rate that depends on the phase change kinetics. The flow in the UHX, and its heat and mass transfer properties are significantly modified. This effect has never been investigated before. Lastly, inserting the secondary loop between the primary unit and the users increases the temperature difference between the refrigerated space and the evaporator. This results in a loss of global energy efficiency, and therefore in an increased energy consumption. The analysis shows that this loss of efficiency is not critical in the first case (Tₘ = 6°C), while the second case leads to more ambiguous results, partially because of the higher melting temperature.The consequences in terms of greenhouse gases emissions are also analyzed.

Keywords: exergy, hydrates, optimization, phase change material, thermodynamics

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20 Geographic Information Systems and a Breath of Opportunities for Supply Chain Management: Results from a Systematic Literature Review

Authors: Anastasia Tsakiridi

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Geographic information systems (GIS) have been utilized in numerous spatial problems, such as site research, land suitability, and demographic analysis. Besides, GIS has been applied in scientific fields like geography, health, and economics. In business studies, GIS has been used to provide insights and spatial perspectives in demographic trends, spending indicators, and network analysis. To date, the information regarding the available usages of GIS in supply chain management (SCM) and how these analyses can benefit businesses is limited. A systematic literature review (SLR) of the last 5-year peer-reviewed academic literature was conducted, aiming to explore the existing usages of GIS in SCM. The searches were performed in 3 databases (Web of Science, ProQuest, and Business Source Premier) and reported using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology. The analysis resulted in 79 papers. The results indicate that the existing GIS applications used in SCM were in the following domains: a) network/ transportation analysis (in 53 of the papers), b) location – allocation site search/ selection (multiple-criteria decision analysis) (in 45 papers), c) spatial analysis (demographic or physical) (in 34 papers), d) combination of GIS and supply chain/network optimization tools (in 32 papers), and e) visualization/ monitoring or building information modeling applications (in 8 papers). An additional categorization of the literature was conducted by examining the usage of GIS in the supply chain (SC) by the business sectors, as indicated by the volume of the papers. The results showed that GIS is mainly being applied in the SC of the biomass biofuel/wood industry (33 papers). Other industries that are currently utilizing GIS in their SC were the logistics industry (22 papers), the humanitarian/emergency/health care sector (10 papers), the food/agro-industry sector (5 papers), the petroleum/ coal/ shale gas sector (3 papers), the faecal sludge sector (2 papers), the recycle and product footprint industry (2 papers), and the construction sector (2 papers). The results were also presented by the geography of the included studies and the GIS software used to provide critical business insights and suggestions for future research. The results showed that research case studies of GIS in SCM were conducted in 26 countries (mainly in the USA) and that the most prominent GIS software provider was the Environmental Systems Research Institute’s ArcGIS (in 51 of the papers). This study is a systematic literature review of the usage of GIS in SCM. The results showed that the GIS capabilities could offer substantial benefits in SCM decision-making by providing key insights to cost minimization, supplier selection, facility location, SC network configuration, and asset management. However, as presented in the results, only eight industries/sectors are currently using GIS in their SCM activities. These findings may offer essential tools to SC managers who seek to optimize the SC activities and/or minimize logistic costs and to consultants and business owners that want to make strategic SC decisions. Furthermore, the findings may be of interest to researchers aiming to investigate unexplored research areas where GIS may improve SCM.

Keywords: supply chain management, logistics, systematic literature review, GIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
19 Characterization of Bio-Inspired Thermoelastoplastic Composites Filled with Modified Cellulose Fibers

Authors: S. Cichosz, A. Masek

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A new cellulose hybrid modification approach, which is undoubtedly a scientific novelty, is introduced. The study reports the properties of cellulose (Arbocel UFC100 – Ultra Fine Cellulose) and characterizes cellulose filled polymer composites based on an ethylene-norbornene copolymer (TOPAS Elastomer E-140). Moreover, the approach of physicochemical two-stage cellulose treatment is introduced: solvent exchange (to ethanol or hexane) and further chemical modification with maleic anhydride (MA). Furthermore, the impact of the drying process on cellulose properties was investigated. Suitable measurements were carried out to characterize cellulose fibers: spectroscopic investigation (Fourier Transform Infrared Spektrofotometer-FTIR, Near InfraRed spectroscopy-NIR), thermal analysis (Differential scanning calorimetry, Thermal gravimetric analysis ) and Karl Fischer titration. It should be emphasized that for all UFC100 treatments carried out, a decrease in moisture content was evidenced. FT-IR reveals a drop in absorption band intensity at 3334 cm-1, the peak is associated with both –OH moieties and water. Similar results were obtained with Karl Fischer titration. Based on the results obtained, it may be claimed that the employment of ethanol contributes greatly to the lowering of cellulose water absorption ability (decrease of moisture content to approximately 1.65%). Additionally, regarding polymer composite properties, crucial data has been obtained from the mechanical and thermal analysis. The highest material performance was noted in the case of the composite sample that contained cellulose modified with MA after a solvent exchange with ethanol. This specimen exhibited sufficient tensile strength, which is almost the same as that of the neat polymer matrix – in the region of 40 MPa. Moreover, both the Payne effect and filler efficiency factor, calculated based on dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA), reveal the possibility of the filler having a reinforcing nature. What is also interesting is that, according to the Payne effect results, fibers dried before the further chemical modification are assumed to allow more regular filler structure development in the polymer matrix (Payne effect maximum at 1.60 MPa), compared with those not dried (Payne effect in the range 0.84-1.26 MPa). Furthermore, taking into consideration the data gathered from DSC and TGA, higher thermal stability is obtained in case of the materials filled with fibers that were dried before the carried out treatments (degradation activation energy in the region of 195 kJ/mol) in comparison with the polymer composite samples filled with unmodified cellulose (degradation activation energy of approximately 180 kJ/mol). To author’s best knowledge this work results in the introduction of a novel, new filler hybrid treatment approach. Moreover, valuable data regarding the properties of composites filled with cellulose fibers of various moisture contents have been provided. It should be emphasized that plant fiber-based polymer bio-materials described in this research might contribute significantly to polymer waste minimization because they are more readily degraded.

Keywords: cellulose fibers, solvent exchange, moisture content, ethylene-norbornene copolymer

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18 Optimal-Based Structural Vibration Attenuation Using Nonlinear Tuned Vibration Absorbers

Authors: Pawel Martynowicz

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Vibrations are a crucial problem for slender structures such as towers, masts, chimneys, wind turbines, bridges, high buildings, etc., that is why most of them are equipped with vibration attenuation or fatigue reduction solutions. In this work, a slender structure (i.e., wind turbine tower-nacelle model) equipped with nonlinear, semiactive tuned vibration absorber(s) is analyzed. For this study purposes, magnetorheological (MR) dampers are used as semiactive actuators. Several optimal-based approaches to structural vibration attenuation are investigated against the standard ‘ground-hook’ law and passive tuned vibration absorber(s) implementations. The common approach to optimal control of nonlinear systems is offline computation of the optimal solution, however, so determined open loop control suffers from lack of robustness to uncertainties (e.g., unmodelled dynamics, perturbations of external forces or initial conditions), and thus perturbation control techniques are often used. However, proper linearization may be an issue for highly nonlinear systems with implicit relations between state, co-state, and control. The main contribution of the author is the development as well as numerical and experimental verification of the Pontriagin maximum-principle-based vibration control concepts that produce directly actuator control input (not the demanded force), thus force tracking algorithm that results in control inaccuracy is entirely omitted. These concepts, including one-step optimal control, quasi-optimal control, and optimal-based modified ‘ground-hook’ law, can be directly implemented in online and real-time feedback control for periodic (or semi-periodic) disturbances with invariant or time-varying parameters, as well as for non-periodic, transient or random disturbances, what is a limitation for some other known solutions. No offline calculation, excitations/disturbances assumption or vibration frequency determination is necessary, moreover, all of the nonlinear actuator (MR damper) force constraints, i.e., no active forces, lower and upper saturation limits, hysteresis-type dynamics, etc., are embedded in the control technique, thus the solution is optimal or suboptimal for the assumed actuator, respecting its limitations. Depending on the selected method variant, a moderate or decisive reduction in the computational load is possible compared to other methods of nonlinear optimal control, while assuring the quality and robustness of the vibration reduction system, as well as considering multi-pronged operational aspects, such as possible minimization of the amplitude of the deflection and acceleration of the vibrating structure, its potential and/or kinetic energy, required actuator force, control input (e.g. electric current in the MR damper coil) and/or stroke amplitude. The developed solutions are characterized by high vibration reduction efficiency – the obtained maximum values of the dynamic amplification factor are close to 2.0, while for the best of the passive systems, these values exceed 3.5.

Keywords: magnetorheological damper, nonlinear tuned vibration absorber, optimal control, real-time structural vibration attenuation, wind turbines

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17 A Variational Reformulation for the Thermomechanically Coupled Behavior of Shape Memory Alloys

Authors: Elisa Boatti, Ulisse Stefanelli, Alessandro Reali, Ferdinando Auricchio

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Thanks to their unusual properties, shape memory alloys (SMAs) are good candidates for advanced applications in a wide range of engineering fields, such as automotive, robotics, civil, biomedical, aerospace. In the last decades, the ever-growing interest for such materials has boosted several research studies aimed at modeling their complex nonlinear behavior in an effective and robust way. Since the constitutive response of SMAs is strongly thermomechanically coupled, the investigation of the non-isothermal evolution of the material must be taken into consideration. The present study considers an existing three-dimensional phenomenological model for SMAs, able to reproduce the main SMA properties while maintaining a simple user-friendly structure, and proposes a variational reformulation of the full non-isothermal version of the model. While the considered model has been thoroughly assessed in an isothermal setting, the proposed formulation allows to take into account the full nonisothermal problem. In particular, the reformulation is inspired to the GENERIC (General Equations for Non-Equilibrium Reversible-Irreversible Coupling) formalism, and is based on a generalized gradient flow of the total entropy, related to thermal and mechanical variables. Such phrasing of the model is new and allows for a discussion of the model from both a theoretical and a numerical point of view. Moreover, it directly implies the dissipativity of the flow. A semi-implicit time-discrete scheme is also presented for the fully coupled thermomechanical system, and is proven unconditionally stable and convergent. The correspondent algorithm is then implemented, under a space-homogeneous temperature field assumption, and tested under different conditions. The core of the algorithm is composed of a mechanical subproblem and a thermal subproblem. The iterative scheme is solved by a generalized Newton method. Numerous uniaxial and biaxial tests are reported to assess the performance of the model and algorithm, including variable imposed strain, strain rate, heat exchange properties, and external temperature. In particular, the heat exchange with the environment is the only source of rate-dependency in the model. The reported curves clearly display the interdependence between phase transformation strain and material temperature. The full thermomechanical coupling allows to reproduce the exothermic and endothermic effects during respectively forward and backward phase transformation. The numerical tests have thus demonstrated that the model can appropriately reproduce the coupled SMA behavior in different loading conditions and rates. Moreover, the algorithm has proved effective and robust. Further developments are being considered, such as the extension of the formulation to the finite-strain setting and the study of the boundary value problem.

Keywords: generalized gradient flow, GENERIC formalism, shape memory alloys, thermomechanical coupling

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16 Efficient Computer-Aided Design-Based Multilevel Optimization of the LS89

Authors: A. Chatel, I. S. Torreguitart, T. Verstraete

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The paper deals with a single point optimization of the LS89 turbine using an adjoint optimization and defining the design variables within a CAD system. The advantage of including the CAD model in the design system is that higher level constraints can be imposed on the shape, allowing the optimized model or component to be manufactured. However, CAD-based approaches restrict the design space compared to node-based approaches where every node is free to move. In order to preserve a rich design space, we develop a methodology to refine the CAD model during the optimization and to create the best parameterization to use at each time. This study presents a methodology to progressively refine the design space, which combines parametric effectiveness with a differential evolutionary algorithm in order to create an optimal parameterization. In this manuscript, we show that by doing the parameterization at the CAD level, we can impose higher level constraints on the shape, such as the axial chord length, the trailing edge radius and G2 geometric continuity between the suction side and pressure side at the leading edge. Additionally, the adjoint sensitivities are filtered out and only smooth shapes are produced during the optimization process. The use of algorithmic differentiation for the CAD kernel and grid generator allows computing the grid sensitivities to machine accuracy and avoid the limited arithmetic precision and the truncation error of finite differences. Then, the parametric effectiveness is computed to rate the ability of a set of CAD design parameters to produce the design shape change dictated by the adjoint sensitivities. During the optimization process, the design space is progressively enlarged using the knot insertion algorithm which allows introducing new control points whilst preserving the initial shape. The position of the inserted knots is generally assumed. However, this assumption can hinder the creation of better parameterizations that would allow producing more localized shape changes where the adjoint sensitivities dictate. To address this, we propose using a differential evolutionary algorithm to maximize the parametric effectiveness by optimizing the location of the inserted knots. This allows the optimizer to gradually explore larger design spaces and to use an optimal CAD-based parameterization during the course of the optimization. The method is tested on the LS89 turbine cascade and large aerodynamic improvements in the entropy generation are achieved whilst keeping the exit flow angle fixed. The trailing edge and axial chord length, which are kept fixed as manufacturing constraints. The optimization results show that the multilevel optimizations were more efficient than the single level optimization, even though they used the same number of design variables at the end of the multilevel optimizations. Furthermore, the multilevel optimization where the parameterization is created using the optimal knot positions results in a more efficient strategy to reach a better optimum than the multilevel optimization where the position of the knots is arbitrarily assumed.

Keywords: adjoint, CAD, knots, multilevel, optimization, parametric effectiveness

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15 On-Farm Biopurification Systems: Fungal Bioaugmentation of Biomixtures For Carbofuran Removal

Authors: Carlos E. Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Karla Ruiz-Hidalgo, Kattia Madrigal-Zúñiga, Juan Salvador Chin-Pampillo, Mario Masís-Mora, Elizabeth Carazo-Rojas

Abstract:

One of the main causes of contamination linked to agricultural activities is the spillage and disposal of pesticides, especially during the loading, mixing or cleaning of agricultural spraying equipment. One improvement in the handling of pesticides is the use of biopurification systems (BPS), simple and cheap degradation devices where the pesticides are biologically degraded at accelerated rates. The biologically active core of BPS is the biomixture, which is constituted by soil pre-exposed to the target pesticide, a lignocellulosic substrate to promote the activity of ligninolitic fungi and a humic component (peat or compost), mixed at a volumetric proportion of 50:25:25. Considering the known ability of lignocellulosic fungi to degrade a wide range of organic pollutants, and the high amount of lignocellulosic waste used in biomixture preparation, the bioaugmentation of biomixtures with these fungi represents an interesting approach for improving biomixtures. The present work aimed at evaluating the effect of the bioaugmentation of rice husk based biomixtures with the fungus Trametes versicolor in the removal of the insectice/nematicide carbofuran (CFN) and to optimize the composition of the biomixture to obtain the best performance in terms of CFN removal and mineralization, reduction in formation of transformation products and decrease in residual toxicity of the matrix. The evaluation of several lignocellulosic residues (rice husk, wood chips, coconut fiber, sugarcane bagasse or newspaper print) revealed the best colonization by T. versicolor in rice husk. Pre-colonized rice husk was then used in the bioaugmentation of biomixtures also containing soil pre-exposed to CFN and either peat (GTS biomixture) or compost (GCS biomixture). After spiking with 10 mg/kg CBF, the efficiency of the biomixture was evaluated through a multi-component approach that included: monitoring of CBF removal and production of CBF transformation products, mineralization of radioisotopically labeled carbofuran (14C-CBF) and changes in the toxicity of the matrix after the treatment (Daphnia magna acute immobilization test). Estimated half-lives of CBF in the biomixtures were 3.4 d and 8.1 d in GTS and GCS, respectively. The transformation products 3-hydroxycarbofuran and 3-ketocarbofuran were detected at the moment of CFN application, however their concentration continuously disappeared. Mineralization of 14C-CFN was also faster in GTS than GCS. The toxicological evaluation showed a complete toxicity removal in the biomixtures after 48 d of treatment. The composition of the GCS biomixture was optimized using a central composite design and response surface methodology. The design variables were the volumetric content of fungally pre-colonized rice husk and the volumetric ratio compost/soil. According to the response models, maximization of CFN removal and mineralization rate, and minimization in the accumulation of transformation products were obtained with an optimized biomixture of composition 30:43:27 (pre-colonized rice husk:compost:soil), which differs from the 50:25:25 composition commonly employed in BPS. Results suggest that fungal bioaugmentation may enhance the performance of biomixtures in CFN removal. Optimization reveals the importance of assessing new biomixture formulations in order to maximize their performance.

Keywords: bioaugmentation, biopurification systems, degradation, fungi, pesticides, toxicity

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14 Green Synthesis (Using Environment Friendly Bacteria) of Silver-Nanoparticles and Their Application as Drug Delivery Agents

Authors: Sutapa Mondal Roy, Suban K. Sahoo

Abstract:

The primary aim of this work is to synthesis silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) through environmentally benign routes to avoid any chemical toxicity related undesired side effects. The nanoparticles were stabilized with drug ciprofloxacin (Cp) and were studied for their effectiveness as drug delivery agent. Targeted drug delivery improves the therapeutic potential of drugs at the diseased site as well as lowers the overall dose and undesired side effects. The small size of nanoparticles greatly facilitates the transport of active agents (drugs) across biological membranes and allows them to pass through the smallest capillaries in the body that are 5-6 μm in diameter, and can minimize possible undesired side effects. AgNPs are non-toxic, inert, stable, and has a high binding capacity and thus can be considered as biomaterials. AgNPs were synthesized from the nutrient broth supernatant after the culture of environment-friendly bacteria Bacillus subtilis. The AgNPs were found to show the surface plasmon resonance (SPR) band at 425 nm. The Cp capped Ag nanoparticles formation was complete within 30 minutes, which was confirmed from absorbance spectroscopy. Physico-chemical nature of the AgNPs-Cp system was confirmed by Dynamic Light Scattering (DLS), Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) etc. The AgNPs-Cp system size was found to be in the range of 30-40 nm. To monitor the kinetics of drug release from the surface of nanoparticles, the release of Cp was carried out by careful dialysis keeping AgNPs-Cp system inside the dialysis bag at pH 7.4 over time. The drug release was almost complete after 30 hrs. During the drug delivery process, to understand the AgNPs-Cp system in a better way, the sincere theoretical investigation is been performed employing Density Functional Theory. Electronic charge transfer, electron density, binding energy as well as thermodynamic properties like enthalpy, entropy, Gibbs free energy etc. has been predicted. The electronic and thermodynamic properties, governed by the AgNPs-Cp interactions, indicate that the formation of AgNPs-Cp system is exothermic i.e. thermodynamically favorable process. The binding energy and charge transfer analysis implies the optimum stability of the AgNPs-Cp system. Thus, the synthesized Cp-Ag nanoparticles can be effectively used for biological purposes due to its environmentally benign routes of synthesis procedures, which is clean, biocompatible, non-toxic, safe, cost-effective, sustainable and eco-friendly. The Cp-AgNPs as biomaterials can be successfully used for drug delivery procedures due to slow release of drug from nanoparticles over a considerable period of time. The kinetics of the drug release show that this drug-nanoparticle assembly can be effectively used as potential tools for therapeutic applications. The ease of synthetic procedure, lack of possible chemical toxicity and their biological activity along with excellent application as drug delivery agent will open up vista of using nanoparticles as effective and successful drug delivery agent to be used in modern days.

Keywords: silver nanoparticles, ciprofloxacin, density functional theory, drug delivery

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13 Improving the Efficiency of a High Pressure Turbine by Using Non-Axisymmetric Endwall: A Comparison of Two Optimization Algorithms

Authors: Abdul Rehman, Bo Liu

Abstract:

Axial flow turbines are commonly designed with high loads that generate strong secondary flows and result in high secondary losses. These losses contribute to almost 30% to 50% of the total losses. Non-axisymmetric endwall profiling is one of the passive control technique to reduce the secondary flow loss. In this paper, the non-axisymmetric endwall profile construction and optimization for the stator endwalls are presented to improve the efficiency of a high pressure turbine. The commercial code NUMECA Fine/ Design3D coupled with Fine/Turbo was used for the numerical investigation, design of experiments and the optimization. All the flow simulations were conducted by using steady RANS and Spalart-Allmaras as a turbulence model. The non-axisymmetric endwalls of stator hub and shroud were created by using the perturbation law based on Bezier Curves. Each cut having multiple control points was supposed to be created along the virtual streamlines in the blade channel. For the design of experiments, each sample was arbitrarily generated based on values automatically chosen for the control points defined during parameterization. The Optimization was achieved by using two algorithms i.e. the stochastic algorithm and gradient-based algorithm. For the stochastic algorithm, a genetic algorithm based on the artificial neural network was used as an optimization method in order to achieve the global optimum. The evaluation of the successive design iterations was performed using artificial neural network prior to the flow solver. For the second case, the conjugate gradient algorithm with a three dimensional CFD flow solver was used to systematically vary a free-form parameterization of the endwall. This method is efficient and less time to consume as it requires derivative information of the objective function. The objective function was to maximize the isentropic efficiency of the turbine by keeping the mass flow rate as constant. The performance was quantified by using a multi-objective function. Other than these two classifications of the optimization methods, there were four optimizations cases i.e. the hub only, the shroud only, and the combination of hub and shroud. For the fourth case, the shroud endwall was optimized by using the optimized hub endwall geometry. The hub optimization resulted in an increase in the efficiency due to more homogenous inlet conditions for the rotor. The adverse pressure gradient was reduced but the total pressure loss in the vicinity of the hub was increased. The shroud optimization resulted in an increase in efficiency, total pressure loss and entropy were reduced. The combination of hub and shroud did not show overwhelming results which were achieved for the individual cases of the hub and the shroud. This may be caused by fact that there were too many control variables. The fourth case of optimization showed the best result because optimized hub was used as an initial geometry to optimize the shroud. The efficiency was increased more than the individual cases of optimization with a mass flow rate equal to the baseline design of the turbine. The results of artificial neural network and conjugate gradient method were compared.

Keywords: artificial neural network, axial turbine, conjugate gradient method, non-axisymmetric endwall, optimization

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12 Multi-scale Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis (GEOBIA) Approach to Segment a Very High Resolution Images for Extraction of New Degraded Zones. Application to The Region of Mécheria in The South-West of Algeria

Authors: Bensaid A., Mostephaoui T., Nedjai R.

Abstract:

A considerable area of Algerian lands are threatened by the phenomenon of wind erosion. For a long time, wind erosion and its associated harmful effects on the natural environment have posed a serious threat, especially in the arid regions of the country. In recent years, as a result of increases in the irrational exploitation of natural resources (fodder) and extensive land clearing, wind erosion has particularly accentuated. The extent of degradation in the arid region of the Algerian Mécheriadepartment generated a new situation characterized by the reduction of vegetation cover, the decrease of land productivity, as well as sand encroachment on urban development zones. In this study, we attempt to investigate the potential of remote sensing and geographic information systems for detecting the spatial dynamics of the ancient dune cords based on the numerical processing of PlanetScope PSB.SB sensors images by September 29, 2021. As a second step, we prospect the use of a multi-scale geographic object-based image analysis (GEOBIA) approach to segment the high spatial resolution images acquired on heterogeneous surfaces that vary according to human influence on the environment. We have used the fractal net evolution approach (FNEA) algorithm to segment images (Baatz&Schäpe, 2000). Multispectral data, a digital terrain model layer, ground truth data, a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) layer, and a first-order texture (entropy) layer were used to segment the multispectral images at three segmentation scales, with an emphasis on accurately delineating the boundaries and components of the sand accumulation areas (Dune, dunes fields, nebka, and barkhane). It is important to note that each auxiliary data contributed to improve the segmentation at different scales. The silted areas were classified using a nearest neighbor approach over the Naâma area using imagery. The classification of silted areas was successfully achieved over all study areas with an accuracy greater than 85%, although the results suggest that, overall, a higher degree of landscape heterogeneity may have a negative effect on segmentation and classification. Some areas suffered from the greatest over-segmentation and lowest mapping accuracy (Kappa: 0.79), which was partially attributed to confounding a greater proportion of mixed siltation classes from both sandy areas and bare ground patches. This research has demonstrated a technique based on very high-resolution images for mapping sanded and degraded areas using GEOBIA, which can be applied to the study of other lands in the steppe areas of the northern countries of the African continent.

Keywords: land development, GIS, sand dunes, segmentation, remote sensing

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11 Multi-Model Super Ensemble Based Advanced Approaches for Monsoon Rainfall Prediction

Authors: Swati Bhomia, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal

Abstract:

Traditionally, monsoon forecasts have encountered many difficulties that stem from numerous issues such as lack of adequate upper air observations, mesoscale nature of convection, proper resolution, radiative interactions, planetary boundary layer physics, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, representation of orography, etc. Uncertainties in any of these areas lead to large systematic errors. Global circulation models (GCMs), which are developed independently at different institutes, each of which carries somewhat different representation of the above processes, can be combined to reduce the collective local biases in space, time, and for different variables from different models. This is the basic concept behind the multi-model superensemble and comprises of a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. These weights are then used in the forecast phase. The superensemble forecasts carry the highest skill compared to simple ensemble mean, bias corrected ensemble mean and the best model out of the participating member models. This approach is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing the direct model output errors. Although it can be applied successfully to the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure etc., in this paper, this approach is applied to rainfall, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods, due to its high temporal and spatial variability. The present study aims at the development of advanced superensemble schemes comprising of 1-5 day daily precipitation forecasts from five state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (Europe), National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA), China Meteorological Administration (China), Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canada) and U.K. Meteorological Office (U.K.) obtained from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), which is one of the most complete data set available. The novel approaches include the dynamical model selection approach in which the selection of the superior models from the participating member models at each grid and for each forecast step in the training period is carried out. Multi-model superensemble based on the training using similar conditions is also discussed in the present study, which is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches. Further, a variety of methods that incorporate a 'neighborhood' around each grid point which is available in literature to allow for spatial error or uncertainty, have also been experimented with the above mentioned approaches. The comparison of these schemes with respect to the observations verifies that the newly developed approaches provide more unified and skillful prediction of the summer monsoon (viz. June to September) rainfall compared to the conventional multi-model approach and the member models.

Keywords: multi-model superensemble, dynamical model selection, similarity criteria, neighborhood technique, rainfall prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 111