Search results for: earnings forecasts

Authors: Serkan Aras, Emrah Gulay

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Combining various forecasting models is an important tool for researchers to attain more accurate forecasts. A great number of papers have shown that selecting single models as dissimilar models, or methods based on different information as possible leads to better forecasting performances. However, there is not a certain rule regarding the number of single models to be used in any combining methods. This study focuses on determining the optimal or near optimal number for single models with the help of statistical tests. An extensive experiment is carried out by utilizing some well-known time series data sets from diverse fields. Furthermore, many rival forecasting methods and some of the commonly used combining methods are employed. The obtained results indicate that some statistically significant performance differences can be found regarding the number of the single models in the combining methods under investigation.

Keywords: combined forecast, forecasting, M-competition, time series

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Authors: Prachi Desai, Ankita Gandhi, Mitali Acharya

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Rainfall forecast is mainly used for predictions of rainfall in a specified area and determining their future rainfall conditions. Rainfall is always a global issue as it affects all major aspects of one's life. Agricultural, fisheries, forestry, tourism industry and other industries are widely affected by these conditions. The studies have resulted in insufficient availability of water resources and an increase in water demand in the near future. We already have a new forecast system that uses the deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to forecast monthly rainfall and climate changes. We have also compared CNN against Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Machine Learning techniques that are used in rainfall predictions include ARIMA Model, ANN, LR, SVM etc. The dataset on which we are experimenting is gathered online over the year 1901 to 20118. Test results have suggested more realistic improvements than conventional rainfall forecasts.

Keywords: ANN, CNN, supervised learning, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: Alka Obadić

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The research concentrates on the role of tourism in generating female employment and on impact of gender discrimination in tourism sector. Unfortunately, in many countries there are still some barriers to the inclusion of women at all hierarchical levels of tourism labor market. Research analysis focuses on EU countries where tourism is a main employer of women. The analysis shows that women represent over third persons employed in the non-financial business economy and almost two thirds in core tourism activities. Women's gross hourly earnings in accommodation and food services were below those of men in the European Union and only countries who recorded increase of gender pay gap from the beginning of crisis are Bulgaria and Croatia. Women in tourism industry are still overrepresented in lower status jobs with fewer opportunities for career progression and are often treated unequally.

Keywords: employment, gender discrimination, tourism, women’s participation

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Authors: Georgia Pozoukidou

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TELUM software is a land use model designed specifically to help metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) prepare their transportation improvement programs and fulfill their numerous planning responsibilities. In this context obtaining, preparing, and validating socioeconomic forecasts are becoming fundamental tasks for an MPO in order to ensure that consistent population and employment data are provided to travel demand models. Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization of Vermont State was used as a case study to test the applicability of TELUM land use model. The technical insights and lessons learned from the land use model application have transferable value for all MPOs faced with land use forecasting development and transportation modelling.

Keywords: calibration data requirements, land use models, land use planning, metropolitan planning organizations

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Authors: Ulrike Dowie, Ralph Grothmann

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Rational planning decisions are based upon forecasts. Precise forecasting has, therefore, a central role in business. The prediction of customer demand is a prime example. This paper introduces recurrent neural networks to model customer demand and combines the forecast with uncertainty measures to derive decision support of the demand planning department. It identifies and describes the keys to the successful implementation of an AI-based solution: bringing together data with business knowledge, AI methods, and user experience, and applying agile software development practices.

Keywords: agile software development, AI project success factors, deep learning, demand forecasting, forecast uncertainty, neural networks, supply chain management

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Authors: Dana Al-Qattan, Faiza Goodarzi, Heba Al-Resheedan, Kawther Shehab, Shoug Al-Ansari

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This project involves working with different types of forecasting methods and facility planning tools to help the company we have chosen to improve and reduce its inventory, increase its sales, and decrease its wastes and losses. The methods that have been used by the company have shown no improvement in decreasing the annual losses. The research made in the company has shown that no interest has been made in exploring different techniques to help the company. In this report, we introduce several methods and techniques that will help the company make more accurate forecasts and use of the available space efficiently. We expect our approach to reduce costs without affecting the quality of the product, and hence making production more viable.

Keywords: production planning, inventory management, inventory control, simulation, facility planning and design, engineering economy and costs

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Authors: Ghaleb Y. Abbasi, Israa Abu Rumman

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This paper modeled sales history archived from 2012 to 2015 bulked in monthly bins for five products for a medical supply company in Jordan. The sales forecasts and extracted consistent patterns in the sales demand history from the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system were used to predict future forecasting and generate sales demand forecasting using time series analysis statistical technique called Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). This was used to model and estimate realistic sales demand patterns and predict future forecasting to decide the best models for five products. Analysis revealed that the current replenishment system indicated inventory overstocking.

Keywords: ARIMA models, sales demand forecasting, time series, R code

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

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The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price

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Authors: Piotr Fiszeder, Marcin Fałdziński, Peter Molnár

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The dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle (2002) is one of the most popular multivariate volatility models. However, this model is based solely on closing prices. It has been documented in the literature that the high and low price of the day can be used in an efficient volatility estimation. We, therefore, suggest a model which incorporates high and low prices into the dynamic conditional correlation framework. Empirical evaluation of this model is conducted on three datasets: currencies, stocks, and commodity exchange-traded funds. The utilisation of realized variances and covariances as proxies for true variances and covariances allows us to reach a strong conclusion that our model outperforms not only the standard dynamic conditional correlation model but also a competing range-based dynamic conditional correlation model.

Keywords: volatility, DCC model, high and low prices, range-based models, covariance forecasting

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Authors: Sabur Mollah, Asma Mobarek

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This study aims to explore the endogenous relationship between Shari’ah governance and board governance for Islamic banks to identify complementary or substituting relationship between these governance parameters. By using a sample of 161 Islamic Banks from 24 countries for the period of 2005-2013, we show an endogenous relationship between Shari’ah Supervisory Board (SSB) and Board of Directors (BoD). In this relationship, SSB and BoD complement each other. We also show that this complementary relationship between SSB and BoD helps enhance both management and asset quality, but mitigates capital adequacy, earnings, and liquidity in Islamic banks. The study has important implications for financial stability in the Islamic banking system.

Keywords: Shari’ah Supervisory Board, Boards of Directors, Islamic banking, financial stability

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Authors: Debneil Saha Roy

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Weather forecasting is a complex topic and is well suited for analysis by deep learning approaches. With the wide availability of weather observation data nowadays, these approaches can be utilized to identify immediate comparisons between historical weather forecasts and current observations. This work explores the application of deep learning techniques to weather forecasting in order to accurately predict the weather over a given forecast hori­zon. Three deep neural networks are used in this study, namely, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Tunn Memory Network (LSTM) and a combination of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and LSTM. The predictive performance of these models is compared using two evaluation metrics. The results show that forecasting accuracy increases with an increase in the complexity of deep neural networks.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, deep learning, long short term memory, multi-layer perceptron

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model

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Authors: Paola Bordon, Breno Braga

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This paper investigates whether firms use university prestige to statistically discriminate among college graduates. The test is based on the employer learning literature which suggests that if firms use a characteristic for statistical discrimination, this variable should become less important for earnings as a worker gains labor market experience. In this framework, we use a regression discontinuity design to estimate a 19% wage premium for recent graduates of two of the most selective universities in Chile. However, we find that this premium decreases by 3 percentage points per year of labor market experience. These results suggest that employers use college selectivity as a signal of workers' quality when they leave school. However, as workers reveal their productivity throughout their careers, they become rewarded based on their true quality rather than the prestige of their college.

Keywords: employer learning, statistical discrimination, college returns, college selectivity

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Authors: Margarita Mayoral-Villa, J. Klapp, L. Di G. Sigalotti, J. E. V. Guzmán

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Automated learning techniques are widely applied in the energy sector to address challenging problems from a practical point of view. To this end, we discuss the implementation of a Message Passing algorithm (MPNN)within a Graph Neural Network(GNN)to leverage the neighborhood of a set of nodes during the aggregation process. This approach enables the characterization of multiphase diffusion processes in the reservoir, such that the flow paths underlying the interconnections between multiple wells may be inferred from previously available data on flow rates and bottomhole pressures. The results thus obtained compare favorably with the predictions produced by the Reduced Order Capacitance-Resistance Models (CRM) and suggest the potential of MPNNs to enhance the robustness of the forecasts while improving the computational efficiency.

Keywords: multiphase diffusion, message passing neural network, well interconnection, interwell connectivity, graph neural network, capacitance-resistance models

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Authors: Jagriti Mishra, Vasundhara Chaudhary

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Introduction: The case highlights various issues and challenges faced by Khanna Enterprises while conceptualizing and execution of launching Active Leisure wear in the domestic market, where different steps involved in the range planning and production have been elaborated. Although Khanna Enterprises was an established company which dealt in the production of knitted and woven garments, they took the risk of launching a new concept- Active Leisure wear for Millennials. Methodology: It is based on primary and secondary research where data collection has been done through survey, in-depth interviews and various reports, forecasts, and journals. Findings: The research through primary and secondary data and execution of active leisure wear substantiated the acceptance, not only by the millennials but also by the generation X. There was a demand of bigger sizes as well as more muted colours. Conclusion: The sales data paved the way for future product development in tune with the strengths of Khanna Enterprises.

Keywords: millennials, range planning, production, active leisure wear

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Authors: Ekapon Thienthaworn

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This research aims to study the reliability of the forecasting factor in social media by using survey research methods with questionnaires. The sampling is the group of undergraduate students in Bangkok. A multiple-step random number of 400 persons, data analysis are descriptive statistics with multivariate regression analysis. The research found the average of the overall trust at the intermediate level for reading the news in social media and the results of the multivariate regression analysis to find out the factors that forecast credibility of the media found the only content that has the power to forecast reliability of undergraduate students in Bangkok to reading the news on social media at the significance level.at 0.05.These can be factors with forecasts reliability of news in social media by a variable that has the highest influence factor of the media content and the speed is also important for reliability of the news.

Keywords: credibility of news, behaviors and attitudes, social media, web board

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Authors: Beata Wentura-Dudek

Abstract:

In Sweden the needs of the labor market are regularly monitored. Test results and forecasts translate directly into the education system in this country, which is largely a state system. Sweden is one of the first countries in Europe that has used active labor market policies. It is realized that there is an active unemployment which includes a wide range of activities that can be divided into three groups: Active forms of influencing the creation of new jobs, active forms that affect the labor supply and active forms for people with disabilities. Most of the funding is allocated there for subsidized employment and training. Research conducted in Sweden shows that active forms of counteracting unemployment focused on the long-term unemployed can significantly raise the level of employment in this group.

Keywords: Sweden, research conducted in Sweden, labour market, labour market policies, unemployment, active forms of influencing the creation of new jobs, active forms of counteracting unemployment, employment, subsidized employment education

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Authors: Elena Collino, Dario A. Ronzio, Goffredo Decimi, Maurizio Riva

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The rapid increase of renewable energy in Italy is led by wind and solar installations. The 2017 Italian energy strategy foresees a further development of these sustainable technologies, especially solar. This fact has resulted in new opportunities, challenges, and different problems to deal with. The growth of renewables allows to meet the European requirements regarding energy and environmental policy, but these types of sources are difficult to manage because they are intermittent and non-programmable. Operationally, these characteristics can lead to instability on the voltage profile and increasing uncertainty on energy reserve scheduling. The increasing renewable production must be considered with more and more attention especially by the Transmission System Operator (TSO). The TSO, in fact, every day provides orders on energy dispatch, once the market outcome has been determined, on extended areas, defined mainly on the basis of power transmission limitations. In Italy, six market zone are defined: Northern-Italy, Central-Northern Italy, Central-Southern Italy, Southern Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily. An accurate hourly renewable power forecasting for the day-ahead on these extended areas brings an improvement both in terms of dispatching and reserve management. In this study, an operational forecasting tool of the hourly solar output for the six Italian market zones is presented, and the performance is analysed. The implementation is carried out by means of a numerical weather prediction model, coupled with a statistical post-processing in order to derive the power forecast on the basis of the meteorological projection. The weather forecast is obtained from the limited area model RAMS on the Italian territory, initialized with IFS-ECMWF boundary conditions. The post-processing calculates the solar power production with the Analog Ensemble technique (AN). This statistical approach forecasts the production using a probability distribution of the measured production registered in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar to the forecasted one. The similarity is evaluated for the components of the solar radiation: global (GHI), diffuse (DIF) and direct normal (DNI) irradiation, together with the corresponding azimuth and zenith solar angles. These are, in fact, the main factors that affect the solar production. Considering that the AN performance is strictly related to the length and quality of the historical data a training period of more than one year has been used. The training set is made by historical Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts at 12 UTC for the GHI, DIF and DNI variables over the Italian territory together with corresponding hourly measured production for each of the six zones. The AN technique makes it possible to estimate the aggregate solar production in the area, without information about the technologic characteristics of the all solar parks present in each area. Besides, this information is often only partially available. Every day, the hourly solar power forecast for the six Italian market zones is made publicly available through a website.

Keywords: analog ensemble, electricity market, PV forecast, solar energy

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Authors: Naveed Ul Hassan, Bilal Aziz, Maryam Mushtaq, Imran Ameen Khan

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Equity risk premium (ERP) is the stock return in excess of risk free return. Even though it is an essential topic of finance but still there is no common consensus upon its forecasting. For forecasting ERP, apart from the macroeconomic variables attention is devoted to technical indicators as well. For this purpose, set of 14 technical and 14 macro-economic variables is selected and all forecasts are generated based on a standard predictive regression framework, where ERP is regressed on a constant and a lag of a macroeconomic variable or technical indicator. The comparative results showed that technical indicators provide better indications about ERP estimates as compared to macro-economic variables. The relative strength of ERP predictability is also investigated by using National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) data of business cycle expansion and recessions and found that ERP predictability is more than twice for recessions as compared to expansions.

Keywords: equity risk premium, forecasting, macroeconomic indicators, technical indicators

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Authors: A. Vinay, Mary Josephine, Shreesha. S. Rao, Dhande Kranthi Kumar, J. Nandini

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This paper looks at the development of Fisheries education in Karnataka and the supply of skilled human capital to the sector. The study tries to analyse their job occupancy patterns, Compound Growth Rate (CGR) and forecasts the fisheries graduates supply using the Holt method. In Karnataka, fisheries are one of the neglected allied sectors of agriculture in spite of having enormous scope and potential to contribute to the State's agriculture GDP. The State Government has been negligent in absorbing skilled human capital for the development of fisheries, as there are so many vacant positions in both education institutes, as well as the State fisheries department. CGR and forecasting of fisheries graduates shows a positive growth rate and increasing trend, from which we can understand that by proper utilization of skilled human capital can bring development in the fisheries sector of Karnataka.

Keywords: compound growth rate, fisheries education, holt method, skilled human capital

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: wind power, uncertainty, stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Gyan Kashyap, Shri Kant Singh

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Improved mental health can be articulated as a good physical health and quality of life. Mental health plays an important role in survival of any one’s life. In today’s time people living with stress in life due to their personal matters, health problems, unemployment, work environment, living environment, substance use, life style and many more important reasons. Many studies confirmed that the significant proportion of mental health people increasing in India. This study is focused on mental well-being of male leather tannery workers in Kanpur city, India. Environment at work place as well as living environment plays an important health risk factors among leather tannery workers. Leather tannery workers are more susceptible to many chemicals and physical hazards, just because they are liable to be affected by their exposure to lots of hazardous materials and processes during tanning work in very hazardous work environment. The aim of this study to determine the level of mental health disorder and quality of life among male leather tannery and non-tannery workers in Kanpur city, India. This study utilized the primary data from the cross- sectional household study which was conducted from January to June, 2015 on tannery and non-tannery workers as a part of PhD program from the Jajmau area of Kanpur city, India. The sample of 286 tannery and 295 non-tannery workers has been collected from the study area. We have collected information from the workers of age group 15-70 those who were working at the time of survey for at least one year. This study utilized the general health questionnaire (GHQ-12) and work related stress scale to test the mental wellbeing of male tannery and non-tannery workers. By using GHQ-12 and work related stress scale, Polychoric factor analysis method has been used for best threshold and scoring. Some of important question like ‘How would you rate your overall quality of life’ on Likert scale to measure the quality of life, their earnings, education, family size, living condition, household assets, media exposure, health expenditure, treatment seeking behavior and food habits etc. Results from the study revealed that around one third of tannery workers had severe mental health problems then non-tannery workers. Mental health problem shown the statistically significant association with wealth quintile, 56 percent tannery workers had severe mental health problem those belong to medium wealth quintile. And 42 percent tannery workers had moderate mental health problem among those from the low wealth quintile. Work related stress scale found the statistically significant results for tannery workers. Large proportion of tannery and non-tannery workers reported they are unable to meet their basic needs from their earnings and living in worst condition. Important result from the study, tannery workers who were involved in beam house work in tannery (58%) had severe mental health problem. This study found the statistically significant association with tannery work and mental health problem among tannery workers.

Keywords: GHQ-12, mental well-being, factor analysis, quality of life, tannery workers

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Authors: Manisha Mukherjee, Diptarka Saha

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Reliable forecasts of univariate time series data are often necessary for several contexts. ARIMA models are quite popular among practitioners in this regard. Hence, choosing correct parameter values for ARIMA is a challenging yet imperative task. Thus, a stepwise algorithm is introduced to provide automatic and robust estimates for parameters (p; d; q)(P; D; Q) used in seasonal ARIMA models. This process is focused on improvising the overall quality of the estimates, and it alleviates the problems induced due to the unidimensional nature of the methods that are currently used such as auto.arima. The fast and automated search of parameter space also ensures reliable estimates of the parameters that possess several desirable qualities, consequently, resulting in higher test accuracy especially in the cases of noisy data. After vigorous testing on real as well as simulated data, the algorithm doesn’t only perform better than current state-of-the-art methods, it also completely obviates the need for human intervention due to its automated nature.

Keywords: time series, ARIMA, auto.arima, ARIMA parameters, forecast, R function

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Authors: Yohanna Panshak

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The impact of macroeconomic instability on economic growth and prosperity has been at forefront in many discourses among researchers and policy makers and has generated a lot of controversies over the years. This has generated series of research efforts towards understanding the remote causes of this phenomenon; its nature, determinants and how it can be targeted and mitigated. While others have opined that the root cause of macroeconomic flux in Nigeria is attributed to Oil-Price volatility, others viewed the issue as resulting from some constellation of structural constraints both within and outside the shores of the country. Research works of scholars such as [Akpan (2009), Aliyu (2009), Olomola (2006), etc] argue that oil volatility can determine economic growth or has the potential of doing so. On the contrary, [Darby (1982), Cerralo (2005) etc] share the opinion that it can slow down growth. The earlier argument rest on the understanding that for a net balance of oil exporting economies, price upbeat directly increases real national income through higher export earnings, whereas, the latter allude to the case of net-oil importing countries (which experience price rises, increased input costs, reduced non-oil demand, low investment, fall in tax revenues and ultimately an increase in budget deficit which will further reduce welfare level). Therefore, assessing the precise impact of oil price volatility on virtually any economy is a function of whether it is an oil-exporting or importing nation. Research on oil price volatility and its outcome on the growth of the Nigerian economy are evolving and in a march towards resolving Nigeria’s macroeconomic instability as long as oil revenue still remain the mainstay and driver of socio-economic engineering. Recently, a major importer of Nigeria’s oil- United States made a historic breakthrough in more efficient source of energy for her economy with the capacity of serving significant part of the world. This undoubtedly suggests a threat to the exchange earnings of the country. The need to understand fluctuation in its major export commodity is critical. This paper leans on the Renaissance growth theory with greater focus on theoretical work of Lee (1998); a leading proponent of this school who makes a clear cut of difference between oil price changes and oil price volatility. Based on the above background, the research seeks to empirically examine the impact oil-price volatility on government expenditure using quarterly time series data spanning 1986:1 to 2014:4. Vector Auto Regression (VAR) econometric approach shall be used. The structural properties of the model shall be tested using Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron. Relevant diagnostics tests of heteroscedasticity, serial correlation and normality shall also be carried out. Policy recommendation shall be offered on the empirical findings and believes it assist policy makers not only in Nigeria but the world-over.

Keywords: oil-price, volatility, prosperity, budget, expenditure

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Authors: Kati Skarp, Keijo Varis, Juha Kettunen

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The purpose of this paper is to examine and evaluate the top-down and bottom-up leadership development programs focused on human capital that improve the performance of a company. This study reports on the external top-down leadership development program supported by a consulting company and the internal participatory action research of the bottom-up program. The sickness rate and the lost time incident failure rate decreased and the ideas produced for cost savings improved, leading to increased earnings during the top-down program. The estimated cost savings potential of the bottom-up program was 3.8 million euro based on the cost savings of meeting habits, maintenance practices and the way of working in production. The results of this study are useful for those who plan and evaluate leadership development and human capital productivity consultation programs to improve the performance of a company.

Keywords: leadership, development, human resources, company, indicators, evaluation

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Authors: Dimitriu Corneliu-Ioan, Gheorghe FrațIlă

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Romania has one of the highest rates of road deaths among European Union Member States, and there is a concern that the country will not meet its goal of "zero deaths" by 2050. The European Union also aims to halve the number of people seriously injured in road accidents by 2030. Therefore, there is a need to improve road infrastructure safety management in Romania. The aim of this study is to analyze road accident data through statistical methods to assess the current state of road infrastructure safety in Bucharest. The study also aims to identify trends and make forecasts regarding serious road accidents and their consequences. The objective is to provide insights that can help prioritize measures to increase road safety, particularly in urban areas. The research utilizes statistical analysis methods, including exploratory analysis and descriptive statistics. Databases from the Traffic Police and the Romanian Road Authority are analyzed using Excel. Road risks are compared with the main causes of road accidents to identify correlations. The study emphasizes the need for better quality and more diverse collection of road accident data for effective analysis in the field of road infrastructure engineering. The research findings highlight the importance of prioritizing measures to improve road safety in urban areas, where serious accidents and their consequences are more frequent. There is a correlation between the measures ordered by road safety auditors and the main causes of serious accidents in Bucharest. The study also reveals the significant social costs of road accidents, amounting to approximately 3% of GDP, emphasizing the need for collaboration between local and central administrations in allocating resources for road safety. This research contributes to a clearer understanding of the current road infrastructure safety situation in Romania. The findings provide critical insights that can aid decision-makers in allocating resources efficiently and institutionally cooperating to achieve sustainable road safety. The data used for this study are collected from the Traffic Police and the Romanian Road Authority. The data processing involves exploratory analysis and descriptive statistics using the Excel tool. The analysis allows for a better understanding of the factors contributing to the current road safety situation and helps inform managerial decisions to eliminate or reduce road risks. The study addresses the state of road infrastructure safety in Bucharest and analyzes the trends and forecasts regarding serious road accidents and their consequences. It studies the correlation between road safety measures and the main causes of serious accidents. To improve road safety, cooperation between local and central administrations towards joint financial efforts is important. This research highlights the need for statistical data processing methods to substantiate managerial decisions in road infrastructure management. It emphasizes the importance of improving the quality and diversity of road accident data collection. The research findings provide a critical perspective on the current road safety situation in Romania and offer insights to identify appropriate solutions to reduce the number of serious road accidents in the future.

Keywords: road death rate, strategic objective, serious road accidents, road safety, statistical analysis

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Authors: Florian Kleber, Martin Kampel

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The increasing demand of gallium, indium and rare-earth elements for the production of electronics, e.g. solid state-lighting, photovoltaics, integrated circuits, and liquid crystal displays, will exceed the world-wide supply according to current forecasts. Recycling systems to reclaim these materials are not yet in place, which challenges the sustainability of these technologies. This paper proposes a multispectral imaging system as a basis for a vision based recognition system for valuable components of electronics waste. Multispectral images intend to enhance the contrast of images of printed circuit boards (single components, as well as labels) for further analysis, such as optical character recognition and entire printed circuit board recognition. The results show that a higher contrast is achieved in the near infrared compared to ultraviolet and visible light.

Keywords: electronics waste, multispectral imaging, printed circuit boards, rare-earth elements

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Authors: Raja Kannusamy

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The research focuses on reducing food waste in the restaurant industry. A study has been conducted on the chain of retail restaurant outlets. It has been observed that the food wastages are due to the inefficient inventory management systems practiced in the restaurant outlets. The major food items which are wasted more in quantity are being selected across the retail chain outlets. A moving average forecasting method has been applied for the selected food items so that their future demand could be predicted accurately and food wastage could be avoided. It has been found that the moving average prediction method helps in predicting forecasts accurately. The demand values obtained from the moving average method have been compared to the actual demand values and are found to be similar with minimum variations. The inventory optimization technique helps in reducing food wastage in restaurant supply chain outlets.

Keywords: food wastage, restaurant supply chain, inventory optimisation, demand forecasting

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Authors: Liqiang Chen

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This study investigates the effects of political connections on the association between firms’ business strategy and their tax aggressiveness in an emerging economy such as China. By studying all public Chinese firms in the period from 2011 to 2017, we find that firms adopting innovative business strategy are more tax aggressive overall, but innovative firms with political connections are less tax aggressive compared to those without political connections. Moreover, we document several channels through which political connections affect the association between innovative business strategy and tax aggressiveness. In particular, we show that the mitigation effect of political connections on tax aggressiveness is stronger for innovative firms located in areas with a lower marketization index and for innovative firms with a lower leverage level or with less earnings management. Our results are robust to an instrumental variable approach to account for possible endogenous bias. Our study contributes to the understanding of firms’ tax behaviors in an emerging economy setting and suggests that there are costs associated with political connections, such as foregone tax saving opportunities, which are understudied in the prior literature.

Keywords: tax aggressiveness, business strategy, political connections, emerging economy

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

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This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, supply chain

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