Search results for: decline
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 715

Search results for: decline

355 Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Meteorological Droughts

Authors: Alireza Nikbakht Shahbazi

Abstract:

There are various factors that affect climate changes; drought is one of those factors. Investigation of efficient methods for estimating climate change impacts on drought should be assumed. The aim of this paper is to investigate climate change impacts on drought in Karoon3 watershed located south-western Iran in the future periods. The atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) data under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios should be used for this purpose. In this study, watershed drought under climate change impacts will be simulated in future periods (2011 to 2099). Standard precipitation index (SPI) as a drought index was selected and calculated using mean monthly precipitation data in Karoon3 watershed. SPI was calculated in 6, 12 and 24 months periods. Statistical analysis on daily precipitation and minimum and maximum daily temperature was performed. LRAS-WG5 was used to determine the feasibility of future period's meteorological data production. Model calibration and verification was performed for the base year (1980-2007). Meteorological data simulation for future periods under General Circulation Models and climate change IPCC scenarios was performed and then the drought status using SPI under climate change effects analyzed. Results showed that differences between monthly maximum and minimum temperature will decrease under climate change and spring precipitation shall increase while summer and autumn rainfall shall decrease. The precipitation occurs mainly between January and May in future periods and summer or autumn precipitation decline and lead up to short term drought in the study region. Normal and wet SPI category is more frequent in B1 and A2 emissions scenarios than A1B.

Keywords: climate change impact, drought severity, drought frequency, Karoon3 watershed

Procedia PDF Downloads 215
354 Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa

Authors: Sara D. Garduno-Diaz, Philippe Y. Garduno-Diaz

Abstract:

To date, one of the few comprehensive indicators for the measurement of food security is the Global Food Security Index. This index is a dynamic quantitative and qualitative bench marking model, constructed from 28 unique indicators, that measures drivers of food security across both developing and developed countries. Whereas the Global Food Security Index has been calculated across a set of 109 countries, in this paper we aim to present and compare, for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), 1) the Food Security Index scores achieved and 2) the data available on affordability, availability, and quality of food. The data for this work was taken from the latest (2014) report published by the creators of the GFSI, which in turn used information from national and international statistical sources. According to the 2014 Global Food Security Index, MENA countries rank from place 17/109 (Israel, although with resent political turmoil this is likely to have changed) to place 91/109 (Yemen) with household expenditure spent in food ranging from 15.5% (Israel) to 60% (Egypt). Lower spending on food as a share of household consumption in most countries and better food safety net programs in the MENA have contributed to a notable increase in food affordability. The region has also however experienced a decline in food availability, owing to more limited food supplies and higher volatility of agricultural production. In terms of food quality and safety the MENA has the top ranking country (Israel). The most frequent challenges faced by the countries of the MENA include public expenditure on agricultural research and development as well as volatility of agricultural production. Food security is a complex phenomenon that interacts with many other indicators of a country’s well-being; in the MENA it is slowly but markedly improving.

Keywords: diet, food insecurity, global food security index, nutrition, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 327
353 Learning-by-Heart vs. Learning by Thinking: Fostering Thinking in Foreign Language Learning A Comparison of Two Approaches

Authors: Danijela Vranješ, Nataša Vukajlović

Abstract:

Turning to learner-centered teaching instead of the teacher-centered approach brought a whole new perspective into the process of teaching and learning and set a new goal for improving the educational process itself. However, recently a tremendous decline in students’ performance on various standardized tests can be observed, above all on the PISA-test. The learner-centeredness on its own is not enough anymore: the students’ ability to think is deteriorating. Especially in foreign language learning, one can encounter a lot of learning by heart: whether it is grammar or vocabulary, teachers often seem to judge the students’ success merely on how well they can recall a specific word, phrase, or grammar rule, but they rarely aim to foster their ability to think. Convinced that foreign language teaching can do both, this research aims to discover how two different approaches to teaching foreign language foster the students’ ability to think as well as to what degree they help students get to the state-determined level of foreign language at the end of the semester as defined in the Common European Framework. For this purpose, two different curricula were developed: one is a traditional, learner-centered foreign language curriculum that aims at teaching the four competences as defined in the Common European Framework and serves as a control variable, whereas the second one has been enriched with various thinking routines and aims at teaching the foreign language as a means to communicate ideas and thoughts rather than reducing it to the four competences. Moreover, two types of tests were created for each approach, each based on the content taught during the semester. One aims to test the students’ competences as defined in the CER, and the other aims to test the ability of students to draw on the knowledge gained and come to their own conclusions based on the content taught during the semester. As it is an ongoing study, the results are yet to be interpreted.

Keywords: common european framework of reference, foreign language learning, foreign language teaching, testing and assignment

Procedia PDF Downloads 76
352 Experimental Research of Smoke Impact on the Performance of Cylindrical Eight Channel Cyclone

Authors: Pranas Baltrėnas, Dainius Paliulis

Abstract:

Cyclones are widely used for separating particles from gas in energy production objects. Efficiency of normal centrifugal air cleaning devices ranges from 85 to 90%, but weakness of many cyclones is low collection efficiency of particles less than 10 μm in diameter. Many factors have impact on cyclone efficiency – humidity, temperature, gas (air) composition, airflow velocity and etc. Many scientists evaluated only effect of origin and size of PM on cyclone efficiency. Effect of gas (air) composition and temperature on cyclone efficiency still demands contributions. Complex experimental research on efficiency of cylindrical eight-channel system with adjustable half-rings for removing fine dispersive particles (< 20 μm) was carried out. The impact of gaseous smoke components on removal of wood ashes was analyzed. Gaseous components, present in the smoke mixture, with the dynamic viscosity lower than that of same temperature air, decrease the d50 value, simultaneously increasing the overall particulate matter removal efficiency in the cyclone, i.e. this effect is attributed to CO2 and CO, while O2 and NO have the opposite effect. Air temperature influences the d50 value, an increase in air temperature yields an increase in d50 value, i.e. the overall particulate matter removal efficiency declines, the reason for this being an increasing dynamic air viscosity. At 120 °C temperature the d50 value is approximately 11.8 % higher than at air temperature of 20 °C. With an increase in smoke (gas) temperature from 20 °C to 50 °C, the aerodynamic resistance in a 1-tier eight-channel cylindrical cyclone drops from 1605 to 1380 Pa, from 1660 to 1420 Pa in a 2-tier eight-channel cylindrical cyclone, from 1715 to 1450 Pa in a 3-tier eight-channel cylindrical cyclone. The reason for a decline in aerodynamic resistance is the declining gas density. The aim of the paper is to analyze the impact of gaseous smoke components on the eight–channel cyclone with tangential inlet.

Keywords: cyclone, adjustable half-rings, particulate matter, efficiency, gaseous compounds, smoke

Procedia PDF Downloads 264
351 International Trade and Regional Inequality in South America: A Study Applied to Brazil and Argentina

Authors: Mónica Arroyo

Abstract:

South America shows increasing decline in regional export values in the last years, after a strong growth of trade flows especially with China up to 2013. This change is due to the end of the commodity price boom, the slowing of the Chinese economy and the effects of the 2008 economic crisis. This paper examines the integration of regional economies in this context, particularly the situation in Brazil and Argentina. Based on transformations over the last two decades, the analysis is focused on the spatial circuits of production linked to foreign markets, contributing to the understanding of the different uses of territory and the within-country inequality. The South American regional exports, consisting basically of raw materials, are concentrated in a few companies. Large areas are intended for the production of agriculture and mining commodities, under the command of major economic groups, both domestic and foreign, relegating the local population to less productive places or, in most cases, forcing them to change their activity and to migrate to other regions in search of some source of income. On the other hand, the dynamics of these commodities’ spatial circuits of production print requirements in territories in terms of infrastructure and regulation. Capturing this movement requires understanding businesses and government’s role in territorial regulation, and consequently how regional systems are changing – for instance, economic specialisation, growing role of services, investment in roads, railways, ports, and airports. This paper aims to highlight topics for discussion on regional economic dynamics and their different degrees of internationalisation. The intention is to contribute to the debate about the relations between trade, globalization, and development.

Keywords: regional inequality, international trade, developing world, South America

Procedia PDF Downloads 238
350 Long-Term Modal Changes in International Traffic - Example of the Polish Eastern Border

Authors: Tomasz Komornicki

Abstract:

The possibilities of cross-border traffic depend on the degree of permeability of a given border as well as the state of the existing transport infrastructure. The aim of this paper is to identify the impact of economic transformation, EU accession, and infrastructure development on modal shifts in border traffic through the Polish eastern boundary. In the 1980s railway was still the main mode of cross-border transport in Poland. At the beginning of the 1990s, the role of the road and rail transborder passenger traffic was similar, but since 1993, the role of rail was decreasing. The general decline in rail infrastructure in Poland continued uninterruptedly until accession to the European Union. The slow opposite trend can be observed later as a result of the inflow of European funds. In the countries neighbouring Poland from the east, these processes took place with some delay, and the loss of railway position was not so drastic. Therefore, cross-border railway connections have been maintained for quite a long time since the break-up of the USSR. However, finally, cross-border rail transport proved to be completely inflexible in relation to both economic, geopolitical, and transport transformations. It has been shown that the current modal split of the passenger border traffic was shaped by the following factors: a) closure of many transborder railway lines, especially local ones; b) the signing of an agreement on minor border traffic with Ukraine; c) rapidly growing number of citizens of Ukraine working in Poland (unofficial transportation of workers by car directly to their workplaces in Poland); d) the emergence of low-cost air connections between Ukraine and Poland and the growing role of air transport in the Russia-Poland relationship. The summary points to the possibility of a renewed increase in the importance of rail transport on the eastern border of the European Union.

Keywords: modal change, border, rail transport, Poland

Procedia PDF Downloads 182
349 Greywater Treatment Using Activated Biochar Produced from Agricultural Waste

Authors: Pascal Mwenge, Tumisang Seodigeng

Abstract:

The increase in urbanisation in South Africa has led to an increase in water demand and a decline in freshwater supply. Despite this, poor water usage is still a major challenge in South Africa, for instance, freshwater is still used for non-drinking applications. The freshwater shortage can be alleviated by using other sources of water for non-portable purposes such as greywater treated with activated biochar produced from agricultural waste. The success of activated biochar produced from agricultural waste to treat greywater can be both economically and environmentally beneficial. Greywater treated with activated biochar produced from agricultural waste is considered a cost-effective wastewater treatment.  This work was aimed at determining the ability of activated biochar to remove Total Suspended Solids (TSS), Ammonium (NH4-N), Nitrate (NO3-N), and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) from greywater. The experiments were carried out in 800 ml laboratory plastic cylinders used as filter columns. 2.5 cm layer of gravel was used at the bottom and top of the column to sandwich the activated biochar material. Activated biochar (200 g and 400 g) was loaded in a column and used as a filter medium for greywater. Samples were collected after a week and sent for analysis. Four types of greywater were treated: Kitchen, floor cleaning water, shower and laundry water. The findings showed: 95% removal of TSS, 76% of NO3-N and 63% of COD on kitchen greywater and 85% removal of NH4-N on bathroom greywater, as highest removal of efficiency of the studied pollutants. The results showed that activated biochar produced from agricultural waste reduces a certain amount of pollutants from greywater. The results also indicated the ability of activated biochar to treat greywater for onsite non-potable reuse purposes.

Keywords: activated biochar produced from agriculture waste, ammonium, NH₄-N, chemical oxygen demand, COD, greywater, nitrate, NO₃-N, total suspended solids, TSS

Procedia PDF Downloads 170
348 Delisting Wave: Corporate Financial Distress, Institutional Investors Perception and Performance of South African Listed Firms

Authors: Adebiyi Sunday Adeyanju, Kola Benson Ajeigbe, Fortune Ganda

Abstract:

In the past three decades, there has been a notable increase in the number of firms delisting from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in South Africa. The recent increasing rate of delisting waves of corporate listed firms motivated this study. This study aims to explore the influence of institutional investor perceptions on the financial distress experienced by delisted firms within the South African market. The study further examined the impact of financial distress on the corporate performance of delisted firms. Using the data of delisted firms spanning from 2000 to 2023 and the FGLS (Feasible Generalized Least Squares) for the short run and PCSE (Panel-Corrected Standard Errors) for the long run effects of the relationship. The finding indicated that a decline in institutional investors’ perceptions was associated with the corporate financial distress of the delisted firms, particularly during the delisting year and the few years preceding the announcement of the delisting. This study addressed the importance of investor recognition in corporate financial distress and the delisting wave among listed firms- a finding supporting the stakeholder theory. This study is an insight for companies’ managements, investors, governments, policymakers, stockbrokers, lending institutions, bankers, the stock market, and other stakeholders in their various decision-making endeavours. Based on the above findings, it was recommended that corporate managements should improve their governance strategies that can help companies’ financial performances. Accountability and transparency through governance must also be improved upon with government support through the introduction of policies and strategies and enabling an easy environment that can help companies perform better.

Keywords: delisting wave, institutional investors, financial distress, corporate performance, investors’ perceptions

Procedia PDF Downloads 17
347 Hemodynamics of a Cerebral Aneurysm under Rest and Exercise Conditions

Authors: Shivam Patel, Abdullah Y. Usmani

Abstract:

Physiological flow under rest and exercise conditions in patient-specific cerebral aneurysm models is numerically investigated. A finite-volume based code with BiCGStab as the linear equation solver is used to simulate unsteady three-dimensional flow field through the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. Flow characteristics are first established in a healthy cerebral artery for both physiological conditions. The effect of saccular aneurysm on cerebral hemodynamics is then explored through a comparative analysis of the velocity distribution, nature of flow patterns, wall pressure and wall shear stress (WSS) against the reference configuration. The efficacy of coil embolization as a potential strategy of surgical intervention is also examined by modelling coil as a homogeneous and isotropic porous medium where the extended Darcy’s law, including Forchheimer and Brinkman terms, is applicable. The Carreau-Yasuda non-Newtonian blood model is incorporated to capture the shear thinning behavior of blood. Rest and exercise conditions correspond to normotensive and hypertensive blood pressures respectively. The results indicate that the fluid impingement on the outer wall of the arterial bend leads to abnormality in the distribution of wall pressure and WSS, which is expected to be the primary cause of the localized aneurysm. Exercise correlates with elevated flow velocity, vortex strength, wall pressure and WSS inside the aneurysm sac. With the insertion of coils in the aneurysm cavity, the flow bypasses the dilatation, leading to a decline in flow velocities and WSS. Particle residence time is observed to be lower under exercise conditions, a factor favorable for arresting plaque deposition and combating atherosclerosis.

Keywords: 3D FVM, Cerebral aneurysm, hypertension, coil embolization, non-Newtonian fluid

Procedia PDF Downloads 211
346 Evaluating Aquaculture Farmers Responses to Climate Change and Sustainable Practices in Kenya

Authors: Olalekan Adekola, Margaret Gatonye, Paul Orina

Abstract:

The growing demand for farmed fish by underdeveloped and developing countries as a means of contributing positively towards eradication of hunger, food insecurity, and malnutrition for their fast growing populations has implications to the environment. Likewise, climate change poses both an immediate and future threat to local fish production with capture fisheries already experiencing a global decline. This not only raises fundamental questions concerning how aquaculture practices affect the environment, but also how ready are aquaculture farmers to adapt to climate related hazards. This paper assesses existing aquaculture practices and approaches to adapting to climate hazards in Kenya, where aquaculture has grown rapidly since the year 2009. The growth has seen rise in aquaculture set ups mainly along rivers and streams, importation of seed and feed and intensification with possible environmental implications. The aquaculture value chain in the context of climate change and their implication for practice is further investigated, and the strategies necessary for an improved implementation of resilient aquaculture system in Kenya is examined. Data for the study are collected from interviews, questionnaires, two workshops and document analysis. Despite acclaimed nutritional benefit of fish consumption in Kenya, poor management of effluents enriched with nitrogen, phosphorus, organic matter, and suspended solids has implications not just on the ecosystem, goods, and services, but is also potential source of resource-use conflicts especially in downstream communities and operators in the livestock, horticulture, and industrial sectors. The study concluded that aquaculture focuses on future orientation, climate resilient infrastructure, appropriate site selection and invest on biosafety as the key sustainable strategies against climate hazards.

Keywords: aquaculture, resilience, environment, strategies, Kenya

Procedia PDF Downloads 139
345 Opioid Administration on Patients Hospitalized in the Emergency Department

Authors: Mani Mofidi, Neda Valizadeh, Ali Hashemaghaee, Mona Hashemaghaee, Soudabeh Shafiee Ardestani

Abstract:

Background: Acute pain and its management remained the most complaint of emergency service admission. Diagnostic and therapeutic procedures add to patients’ pain. Diminishing the pain increases the quality of patient’s feeling and improves the patient-physician relationship. Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcomes and side effects of opioid administration in emergency patients. Material and Methods: patients admitted to ward II emergency service of Imam Khomeini hospital, who received one of the opioids: morphine, pethidine, methadone or fentanyl as an analgesic were evaluated. Their vital signs and general condition were examined before and after drug injection. Also, patient’s pain experience were recorded as numerical rating score (NRS) before and after analgesic administration. Results: 268 patients were studied. 34 patients were addicted to opioid drugs. Morphine had the highest rate of prescription (86.2%), followed by pethidine (8.5%), methadone (3.3%) and fentanyl (1.68). While initial NRS did not show significant difference between addicted patients and non-addicted ones, NRS decline and its score after drug injection were significantly lower in addicted patients. All patients had slight but statistically significant lower respiratory rate, heart rate, blood pressure and O2 saturation. There was no significant difference between different kind of opioid prescription and its outcomes or side effects. Conclusion: Pain management should be always in physicians’ mind during emergency admissions. It should not be assumed that an addicted patient complaining of pain is malingering to receive drug. Titration of drug and close monitoring must be in the curriculum to prevent any hazardous side effects.

Keywords: numerical rating score, opioid, pain, emergency department

Procedia PDF Downloads 404
344 Produced Water Treatment Using Novel Solid Scale Inhibitors Based on Silver Tungstate Loaded Kit-6: Static and Modeling Evaluation

Authors: R. Hosny, Mahmoud F. Mubarak, Heba M. Salem, Asmaa A. Abdelrahman

Abstract:

Oilfield scaling is a major problem in the oil and gas industry. Scale issues cost the industry millions of dollars in damage and lost production every year. One of the main causes of global production decline is scale. In this study, solid scale inhibitors based on silver tungstate loaded KIT-6 were synthesized and evaluated in both static and scale inhibition modeling. The silver tungstate loaded KIT-6 catalysts were synthesized via a simple impregnated method using 3D mesoporous KIT-6 as support. The synthesized materials were characterized using wide and low XRD, N2 adsorption–desorption analysis, TGA analysis, and FTIR, SEM, and XPS analysis. The scale inhibition efficiency of the synthesized materials was evaluated using a static scale inhibition test. The results of this study demonstrate the potential application of silver tungstate-loaded KIT-6 solid scale inhibitors for the oil and gas industry. The results of this study will contribute to the development of new and innovative solid scale inhibitors based on silver tungstate-loaded KIT-6. The inhibition efficiency of the scale inhibitor increases, and calcite scale inhibitor decreases with increasing pH (2 to8), it proposes that the scale inhibitor was more effective under alkaline conditions. An inhibition efficiency of 99% on calcium carbonate can be achieved at the optimal dosage of 7.5 ppm at 55oC, indicating that the scale inhibitor exhibits a relatively good inhibition performance on calcium carbonate. The use of these materials can potentially lead to more efficient and cost-effective solutions for scaling inhibition in various industrial processes.

Keywords: produced water treatment, solid scale inhibitors, calcite, silver tungestate, 3 D mesoporous KIT-6, oilfield scales, adsorption

Procedia PDF Downloads 122
343 The Prospect of Income Contingent Loan in Malaysia Higher Education Financing Using Deterministic and Stochastic Methods in Modelling Income

Authors: Syaza Isma, Timothy Higgins

Abstract:

In Malaysia, increased take-up rates of tertiary student borrowing, and reliance on retirement savings to fund children's education show the importance of public higher education financing schemes (PTPTN). PTPTN has been operating for 2 decades now; however, there are some critical issues and challenges that include low loan recovery and loan default that suggest a detailed consideration of student loan/financing scheme alternatives is crucial. In addition, the decline in funding level per student following introduction of the new PTPTN full and partial loan scheme has raised ongoing concerns over the sustainability of the scheme to provide continuous financial assistance to students in tertiary education. This research seeks to assess these issues that put greater efficiency in an effort to ensure equitable access to student funding for current and future generations. We explore the extent of repayment hardship under the current loan arrangements that presumably led to low recovery from the borrowers, particularly low-income graduates. The concept of manageable debt exists in the design of income-contingent repayment schemes, as practiced in Australia, New Zealand, UK, Hungary, USA (in limited form), the Netherlands, and South Korea. Can Income Contingent Loans (ICL) offer the best practice for an education financing scheme, and address the issue of repayment hardship and concurrently, can a properly designed ICL scheme provide a solution to the current issues and challenges facing Malaysia student financing? We examine the different potential ICL models using deterministic and stochastic approach to simulate income of graduates.

Keywords: deterministic, income contingent loan, repayment burden, simulation, stochastic

Procedia PDF Downloads 208
342 Sub-Chronic Exposure to Dexamethasone Impairs Cognitive Function and Insulin in Prefrontal Cortex of Male Wistar Rats

Authors: A. Alli-Oluwafuyi, A. Amin, S. M. Fii, S. O. Amusa, A. Imam, N. T. Asogwa, W. I. Abdulmajeed, F. Olaseinde, B. V. Owoyele

Abstract:

Chronic stress or prolonged glucocorticoid administration impairs higher cognitive functions in rodents and humans. However, the mechanisms are not fully clear. Insulin and receptors are expressed in the brain and are involved in cognition. Insulin resistance accompanies Alzheimer’s disease and associated cognitive decline. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effects of sub-chronic administration of a glucocorticoid, dexamethasone (DEX) on behavior and biochemical changes in prefrontal cortex (PFC). Male Wistar rats were administered DEX (2, 4 & 8 mg/kg, IP) or saline for seven consecutive days and behavior was assessed in the following paradigms: “Y” maze, elevated plus maze, Morris’ water maze and novel object recognition (NOR) tests. Insulin, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and Superoxide Dismutase (SOD) activity were evaluated in homogenates of the prefrontal cortex. DEX-treated rats exhibited impaired prefrontal cortex function manifesting as reduced locomotion, impaired novel object exploration and impaired short- and long-term spatial memory compared to normal controls (p < 0.05). These effects were not consistently dose-dependent. These behavioral alterations were accompanied by a decrease in insulin concentration observed in PFC of 4 mg/kg DEX-treated rats compared to control (10μIU/mg vs. 50μIU/mg; p < 0.05) but not 2mg/kg. Furthermore, we report a modification of brain stress markers LDH and SOD (p > 0.05). These results indicate that prolonged activation of GCs disrupt prefrontal cortex function which may be related to insulin impairment. These effects may not be attributable to a non-specific elevation of oxidative stress in the brain. Future studies would evaluate mechanisms of GR-induced insulin loss.

Keywords: dexamethasone, insulin, memory, prefrontal cortex

Procedia PDF Downloads 253
341 Predicting Foreign Direct Investment of IC Design Firms from Taiwan to East and South China Using Lotka-Volterra Model

Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

This work explores the inter-region investment behaviors of integrated circuit (IC) design industry from Taiwan to China using the amount of foreign direct investment (FDI). According to the mutual dependence among different IC design industrial locations, Lotka-Volterra model is utilized to explore the FDI interactions between South and East China. Effects of inter-regional collaborations on FDI flows into China are considered. Evolutions of FDIs into South China for IC design industry significantly inspire the subsequent FDIs into East China, while FDIs into East China for Taiwan’s IC design industry significantly hinder the subsequent FDIs into South China. The supply chain along IC industry includes IC design, manufacturing, packing and testing enterprises. I C manufacturing, packaging and testing industries depend on IC design industry to gain advanced business benefits. The FDI amount from Taiwan’s IC design industry into East China is the greatest among the four regions: North, East, Mid-West and South China. The FDI amount from Taiwan’s IC design industry into South China is the second largest. If IC design houses buy more equipment and bring more capitals in South China, those in East China will have pressure to undertake more FDIs into East China to maintain the leading position advantages of the supply chain in East China. On the other hand, as the FDIs in East China rise, the FDIs in South China will successively decline since capitals have concentrated in East China. Prediction of Lotka-Volterra model in FDI trends is accurate because the industrial interactions between the two regions are included. Finally, this work confirms that the FDI flows cannot reach a stable equilibrium point, so the FDI inflows into East and South China will expand in the future.

Keywords: Lotka-Volterra model, foreign direct investment, competitive, Equilibrium analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 339
340 Agroecology and Seasonal Disparity Nexus with Nutritional Status of Children in Ethiopia

Authors: Dagem Alemayehu, Samson Gebersilassie, Jan Frank

Abstract:

Climate change is impacting nutrition through reducing food quantity and access, limiting dietary diversity, and decreased nutritional food content as well as strongly affecting seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. Nevertheless, only a few data is available on the impacts of seasonality in Infant, and Young Child Feeding (IYCF) practices undernutrition among 6-23 months old children in different agro-ecological zones of poor resource settings of Ethiopia. Methods: Socio-demographic, anthropometry, and IYCF indicators were assessed in the harvest and lean seasons among children aged 6–23 months of age randomly selected from rural villages of lowland and midland agro-ecological zones. Results: Child stunting and underweight increased from prevalence of 32.8 % and 23.9 % (lowland &midland respectively) in the lean season to 36.1% and 33.8 % harvest seasons, respectively. The biggest increase in the prevalence of stunting and underweight between harvest and lean seasons was noted in the lowland zone. Wasting decreased from 11.6% lean to 8.5% harvest, with the biggest decline recorded in the midland zone. Minimum meal frequency, minimum acceptable diet, and poor dietary diversity increased considerably in harvest compared to a lean season in the lowland zone. Feeding practices and maternal age were predictors of wasting, while women's dietary diversity and children's age was a predictor of child dietary diversity in both seasons. Conclusion: There is seasonal variation in undernutrition and IYCF practices among children 6-23 months of age with more pronounced effect lowland agro-ecological zone.

Keywords: agroecology, seasonality, stunting, wasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 110
339 Distribution and Historical Trends of PAHs Deposition in Recent Sediment Cores of the Imo River, SE Nigeria

Authors: Miranda I. Dosunmu, Orok E. Oyo-Ita, Inyang O. Oyo-Ita

Abstract:

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a class of priority listed organic pollutants due to their carcinogenicity, mutagenity, acute toxicity and persistency in the environment. The distribution and historical changes of PAHs contamination in recent sediment cores from the Imo River were investigated using gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometer. The concentrations of total PAHs (TPAHs) ranging from 402.37 ng/g dry weight (dw) at the surface layer of the Estuary zone (ESC6; 0-5 cm) to 92,388.59 ng/g dw at the near surface layer of the Afam zone (ASC5; 5-10 cm) indicate that PAHs contamination was localized not only between sample sites but also within the same cores. Sediment-depth profiles for the four (Afam, Mangrove, Estuary and illegal Petroleum refinery) cores revealed irregular distribution patterns in the TPAH concentrations except the fact that these levels became maximized at the near surface layers (5-10 cm) corresponding to a geological time-frame of about 1996-2004. This time scale coincided with the period of intensive bunkering and oil pipeline vandalization by the Niger Delta militant groups. Also a general slight decline was found in the TPAHs levels from near the surface layers (5-10 cm) to the most recent top layers (0-5 cm) of the cores, attributable to the recent effort by the Nigerian government in clamping down the illegal activity of the economic saboteurs. Therefore, the recent amnesty period granted to the militant groups should be extended. Although mechanism of perylene formation still remains enigmatic, examination of its distributions down cores indicates natural biogenic, pyrogenic and petrogenic origins for the compound at different zones. Thus, the characteristic features of the Imo River environment provide a means of tracing diverse origins for perylene.

Keywords: perylene, historical trend, distribution, origin, Imo River

Procedia PDF Downloads 233
338 The Impact of Restricting Product Availability on the Purchasing of Lower Sugar Biscuits in UK Convenience Stores

Authors: Hannah S. Waldron

Abstract:

Background: The government has proposed sugar reduction targets in an effort to tackle childhood obesity, focussing on those of low socioeconomic status (SES). Supermarkets are a key location for reducing the amount of sugar purchased, but success so far in this environment has been limited. Building on previous research, this study will assess the impact of restricting the availability of higher sugar biscuits as a strategy to encourage lower sugar biscuit purchasing, and whether the effects vary by customer SES. Method: 14 supermarket convenience stores were divided between control (n=7) and intervention (n=7) groups. In the intervention stores, biscuits with sugar above the government’s target (26.2g/100g) were removed from sale and replaced with lower sugar ( < 26.2g sugar/100g) alternatives. Sales and customer demographic information were collected using loyalty card data and point-of-sale transaction data for 8-weeks pre and post the intervention for lower sugar biscuits, total biscuits, alternative higher sugar products, and all products. Results were analysed using three-way and two-way mixed ANOVAs. Results: The intervention resulted in a significant increase in lower sugar biscuit purchasing (p < 0.001) and a significant decline in overall biscuit sales (p < 0.001) between the time periods compared to control stores. Sales of higher sugar products and all products increased significantly between the two time periods in both the intervention and control stores (p < 0.05). SES showed no significant effect on any of the reported outcomes (p > 0.05). Conclusion: Restricting the availability of higher sugar products may be a successful strategy for encouraging lower sugar purchasing across all SES groups. However, larger-scale interventions are required in additional categories to assess the long term implications for both consumers and retailers.

Keywords: biscuits, nudging, sugar, supermarket

Procedia PDF Downloads 82
337 The Direct Drivers of Ethnocentric Consumer, Intention and Actual Purchasing Behavior in Malaysia

Authors: Nik Kamariah Nikmat, Noor Hasmini Abdghani

Abstract:

The Malaysian government had consistently revived its campaign for “Buy Malaysian Goods” from time to time. The purpose of the campaign is to remind consumers to be ethnocentric and patriotic when purchasing product and services. This is necessary to ensure high demand for local products and services compared to foreign products. However, the decline of domestic investment in 2012 has triggered concern for the Malaysian economy. Hence, this study attempts to determine the drivers of actual purchasing behavior, intention to purchase domestic products and ethnocentrism. The study employs the cross-sectional primary data, self-administered on household, selected using stratified random sampling in four Malaysian regions. A nine factor driver of actual domestic purchasing behavior (culture openness, conservatism, collectivism, patriotism, control belief, interest in foreign travel, attitude, ethnocentrism and intention) were measured utilizing 60 items, using 7-point Likert-scale. From 1000 questionnaires distributed, a sample of 486 were returned representing 48.6 percent response rate. From the fit generated structural model (SEM analysis), it was found that the drivers of actual purchase behavior are collectivism, cultural openness and patriotism; the drivers of intention to purchase domestic product are attitude, control belief, collectivism and conservativeness; and drivers of ethnocentrism are cultural openness, control belief, foreign travel and patriotism. It also shows that Malaysian consumers scored high in ethnocentrism and patriotism. The findings are discussed in the perspective of its implication to Malaysian National Agenda.

Keywords: actual purchase, ethnocentrism, patriotism, culture openness, conservatism

Procedia PDF Downloads 289
336 Ecological impacts of Cage Farming: A Case Study of Lake Victoria, Kenya

Authors: Mercy Chepkirui, Reuben Omondi, Paul Orina, Albert Getabu, Lewis Sitoki, Jonathan Munguti

Abstract:

Globally, the decline in capture fisheries as a result of the growing population and increasing awareness of the nutritional benefits of white meat has led to the development of aquaculture. This is anticipated to meet the increasing call for more food for the human population, which is likely to increase further by 2050. Statistics showed that more than 50% of the global future fish diet will come from aquaculture. Aquaculture began commercializing some decades ago; this is accredited to technological advancement from traditional to modern cultural systems, including cage farming. Cage farming technology has been rapidly growing since its inception in Lake Victoria, Kenya. Currently, over 6,000 cages have been set up in Kenyan waters, and this offers an excellent opportunity for recognition of Kenya’s government tactic to eliminate food insecurity and malnutrition, create employment and promote a Blue Economy. However, being an open farming enterprise is likely to emit large bulk of waste hence altering the ecosystem integrity of the lake. This is through increased chlorophyll-a pigments, alteration of the plankton community, macroinvertebrates, fish genetic pollution, transmission of fish diseases and pathogens. Cage farming further increases the nutrient loads leading to the production of harmful algal blooms, thus negatively affecting aquatic and human life. Despite the ecological transformation, cage farming provides a platform for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals of 2030, especially the achievement of food security and nutrition. Therefore, there is a need for Integrated Multitrophic Aquaculture as part of Blue Transformation for ecosystem monitoring.

Keywords: aquaculture, ecosystem, blue economy, food security

Procedia PDF Downloads 53
335 Tourist’s Perception and Identification of Landscape Elements of Traditional Village

Authors: Mengxin Feng, Feng Xu, Zhiyong Lai

Abstract:

As a typical representative of the countryside, traditional Chinese villages are rich in cultural landscape resources and historical information, but they are still in continuous decline. The problems of people's weak protection awareness and low cultural recognition are still serious, and the protection of cultural heritage is imminent. At the same time, with the rapid development of rural tourism, its cultural value has been explored and paid attention to again. From the perspective of tourists, this study aimed to explore people's perception and identity of cultural landscape resources under the current cultural tourism development background. We selected eleven typical landscape elements of Lingshui Village, a traditional village in Beijing, as research objects and conducted a questionnaire survey with two scales of perception and identity to explore the characteristics of people's perception and identification of landscape elements. We found that there was a strong positive correlation between the perception and identity of each element and that geographical location influenced visitors' overall perception. The perception dimensions scored the highest in location, and the lowest in history and culture, and the identity dimensions scored the highest in meaning and lowest in emotion. We analyzed the impact of visitors' backgrounds on people's perception and identity characteristics and found that age and education were two important factors. The elderly had a higher degree of perceived identity, as the familiarity effect increased their attention. Highly educated tourists had more stringent criteria for perception and identification. The above findings suggest strategies for conserving and optimizing landscape elements in the traditional village to improve the acceptance and recognition of cultural information in traditional villages, which will inject new vitality into the development of traditional villages.

Keywords: traditional village, tourist perception, landscape elements, perception and identity

Procedia PDF Downloads 111
334 Breastfeeding Knowledge, Attitudes and Practice: A Cross-Sectional Study among a Sample of Tunisian Mothers

Authors: Arfaoui Emna, Nouira Mariem

Abstract:

Background and aims: Breastfeeding is the reference feeding for a child, especially during the first months of life. It is not widespread in many countries due to many factors. There has been a decline in exclusive breastfeeding (EB) practice, particularly in the middle- and low-income countries, i.e., Tunisia. The aim of our study was to describe the knowledge, attitudes, and practice of a sample of Tunisian mothers toward breastfeeding. Methods: It was a descriptive cross-sectional study conducted during the year 2022 over a period of two months in three health structures in the north of Tunisia among mothers of infants aged 2 to 18 months. Levels of mothers’ knowledge (low/moderate/high) were determined using a score ranging from 0 to 11 points. EB was defined as the proportion of infants who were exclusively breastfed during the first six months of life. Results: A total of 180 women with a mean age of 33±4.9 years were included. The average knowledge score was equal to 6.4 ±1.5 points, with extremes ranging from 3 to 11 points. Most of the respondents had a moderate knowledge level (44.4%). More than half of surveyed mothers (66.1%) thought that breastfeeding deforms breasts, and 16.7% thought that breastfeeding is specific to women who do not work. Breastfeeding experience during the first week of life was considered difficult in 70% of cases. The prevalence of EB up to 6 months of age was equal to 16.4% [10.8-23.2]. The main reported obstacles during breastfeeding practice were having an insufficient quantity of breast milk (18.3%) and child difficulties with sucking (12.8%), and having pain in the breast while breastfeeding (12.80%). Conclusion: Our results highlighted the insufficient level of knowledge and a low prevalence of EB in our study population. Improving mothers’ knowledge and promoting EB practice is needed. Implementing health education strategies involving healthcare workers, who represent a main actor in education and breastfeeding promotion, is very important to reach a satisfactory frequency for EB.

Keywords: breastfeeding, practices, knowledge, Tunisia

Procedia PDF Downloads 50
333 Changing Geomorphosites in a Changing Lake: How Environmental Changes in Urmia Lake Have Been Driving Vanishing or Creating of Geomorphosites

Authors: D. Mokhtari

Abstract:

Any variation in environmental characteristics of geomorphosites would lead to destabilisation of their geotouristic values all around the planet. The Urmia lake, with an area of approximately 5,500 km2 and a catchment area of 51,876 km2, and to which various reasons over time, especially in the last fifty years have seen a sharp decline and have decreased by about 93 % in two recent decades. These variations are not only driving significant changes in the morphology and ecology of the present lake landscape, but at the same time are shaping newly formed morphologies, which vanished some valuable geomorphosites or develop into smaller geomorphosites with significant value from a scientific and cultural point of view. This paper analyses and discusses features and evolution in several representative coastal and island geomorphosites. For this purpose, a total of 23 geomorphosites were studied in two data series (1963 and 2015) and the respective data were compared and analysed. The results showed, The total loss in geomorphosites area in a half century amounted to a loss of more than 90% of the valuable geomorphosites. Moreover, the comparison between the mean yearly value of coastal area lost over the entire period and the yearly average calculated for the shorter period (1998-2014) clearly indicates a pattern of acceleration. This acceleration in the rate of reduction in lake area was seen in most of the southern half of the lake. In the region as well, the general water-level falling is not only causing the loss of a significant water resource, which is followed by major impact on regional ecosystems, but is also driving the most marked recent (last century) changes in the geotouristic landscapes. In fact, the disappearance of geomorphosites means the loss of tourism phenomenon. In this context attention must be paid to the question of conservation. The action needed to safeguard geomorphosites includes: 1) Preventive action, 2) Corrective action, and 3) Sharing knowledge.

Keywords: geomorphosite, environmental changes, changing lake, Urmia lake, northwest of Iran

Procedia PDF Downloads 352
332 Pattern and Trend of Open Burning Occurrence in Greater Mekong Sub-Region Countries: Case Study Thailand, Laos, and Myanmar

Authors: Nion Sirimongkonlertkun, Vivard Phonekeo

Abstract:

This research focused on open burning occurrence in Greater Mekong Sub-Region countries that influences the increase of PM10concentrations. Thailand, Myanmar, and Laos were chosen as a case study, and 2009, 2010, and 2012 were chosen as the year for case study. Hotspot detected by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Specto radiometer) sensor on board of Terra/Aqua satellites and provided by Rapid Response System was used to represent open burning location in the region. Hotspot was selected through fire confidence with confidence levels of 80-100%. The spatial analysis by GIS was used as the main tool for analyzing and defining the location of open burning at study sites as hotspot with the pixel size of 1 km by 1 km. The total hotspot counts in the study period of four years (2007, 2009, 2010, and January-April 2012) at the regional level, including Thailand, Laos, and Myanmar were 255,177 hotspots or a very high yearly average of 63,795 hotspots. The highest amount was seen in Myanmar (50%), followed by Laos (36%), and Thailand (14%). For Thailand, the majority of burning or 64% occurred in the northern region with the density of 5 hotspots per 100 km2. According to statistics of the 4 years, the increasing rate of hotspot from January to February was 10 times and from February to March was 4 times. After that period, the hotspot started to decline by 2 times from March to April. Therefore, in order to develop a policy which aims to lessen open burning conduction, the government should seriously focus on this problem during the peak period—February to March in every year when hotspot and open burning area is significantly increased.

Keywords: PM10, hotspot, greater mekong sub-region, open burning

Procedia PDF Downloads 343
331 Protective Effect of Diosgenin against Silica-Induced Tuberculosis in Rat Model

Authors: Williams A. Adu, Cynthia A. Danquah, Paul P. S. Ossei, Selase Ativui, Michael Ofori, James Asenso, George Owusu

Abstract:

Background Silicosis is an occupational disease of the lung that is caused by chronic exposure to silica dust. There is a higher frequency of co-existence of silicosis with tuberculosis (TB), ultimately resulting in lung fibrosis and respiratory failure. Chronic intake of synthetic drugs has resulted in undesirable side effects. Diosgenin is a steroidal saponin that has been shown to exert a therapeutic effect on lung injury. Therefore, we investigated the ability of diosgenin to reduce the susceptibility of silica-induced TB in rats. Method Silicosis was induced by intratracheal instillation of 50 mg/kg crystalline silica in Sprague Dawley rats. Different doses of diosgenin (1, 10, and 100 mg/kg), Mycobacterium smegmatis and saline were administered for 30 days. Afterwards, 5 of the rats from each group were sacrificed, and the 5 remaining rats in each group, except the control, received Mycobacterium smegmatis. Treatment of diosgenin continued until the 50th day, and the rats were sacrificed at the end of the experiment. The result was analysed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with a Graph-pad prism Result At a half-maximal inhibition concentration of 48.27 µM, diosgenin inhibited the growth of Mycobacterium smegmatis. There was a marked decline in the levels of immune cell infiltration and cytokines production. Lactate dehydrogenase and total protein levels were significantly reduced compared to control. There was an increase in the survival rate of the treatment group compared to the control. Conclusion Diosgenin ameliorated silica-induced pulmonary tuberculosis by declining the levels of inflammatory and pro-inflammatory cytokines and, in effect, significantly reduced the susceptibility of rats to pulmonary TB.

Keywords: silicosis, tuberculosis, diosgenin, fibrosis, crystalline silica

Procedia PDF Downloads 39
330 From Within a Domestic Violence Shelter Identifying the Sociological and Psychological Impact of Refugee Muslim Women and Children in America

Authors: Asma Inge-Hanif, Ayyub Ansari Hanif

Abstract:

The impact of conflicts, the subsequent refugee migration to America and their attempted use of societal resources implicate the lack of further humanitarian aid as a consequence of the abrupt decrease in services and policy changes stemming from new governmental mandates and Executive Orders. Statistical research data indicates a substantial decline in access to standardized health services by refugee women creating a significant alteration in the management of their maternal health care in America, previously shown to result in decreased mortality and morbidity. Studying nursing at Howard University in Washington, D.C., observed doctors were not always sensitive to the needs and modesty concerns of immigrant Muslim women - often unintentionally. Among health care professionals, the prevailing belief should be that every man, woman and child has the right to quality care in a dignified manner and the achievement of optimal health and well-being, regardless of race, creed, socio-economic level or status. In 1987 Muslimat Al Nisaa Health and Social Services Center was established to care for underserved and uninsured women and children. This Center, plus the subsequent shelter, provided direct access to those homeless, refugees, human trafficking and women victims of domestic violence was established and provides the data for this study. Understanding specific culture, social, economic and religious nuances respects their diversity and addressing their basic human needs that they achieve optimal success. The ultimate goal being to facilitate the rescue and housing of those whom escaped from a country/communities where girls are devalued, brought, sold and abused.

Keywords: women, refugee, domestic violence, health care

Procedia PDF Downloads 65
329 Views of South African Academic Instructors to the Scholarship of Teaching and Learning in Anatomy Education

Authors: Lelika Lazarus, Reshma Sookrajh, Kapil S. Satyapal

Abstract:

Reflecting on teaching is commonly cited as a fundamental practice for personal and professional development. Educational research into the scholarship of teaching and learning anatomy includes engaging in discipline specific literature on teaching, reflecting on individual teaching methods and communicating these findings to peers. The aim of this paper is to formally assess the opinions of senior anatomy instructors regarding the state of anatomical knowledge at their respective institutions. The context of the paper derives from ongoing debates about the perceived decline in standards of anatomical knowledge of medical students and postgraduate learners. An open ended questionnaire was devised consisting of eight direct questions seeking opinions on anatomy teaching, knowledge, and potential educational developments and general thoughts on the teaching of anatomy to medical students. These were distributed to senior anatomy Faculty (identified by the author by their affiliation with the Anatomical Society of Southern Africa) based at the eight national medical schools within the country. A number of key themes emerged. Most senior faculty felt that the standard of medical education at their respective institutions was ‘good.’. However, emphasis was also placed on the ‘quality of teaching’ incorporating clinical scenarios. There were also indications that staff are split into those that are keen to do research and those that are happy to provide teaching to medical students as their primary function. Several challenges were also highlighted such as time constraints within the medical curriculum, the lack of cadavers to reinforce knowledge and gain depth perception and lack of appropriately qualified staff. Recommendations included fostering partnerships with both clinicians and medical scientists into the anatomy curriculum thus improving teaching and research.

Keywords: anatomy, education, reflection, teaching

Procedia PDF Downloads 266
328 Impacts of Oil Palm Plantation on Mammal and Herpetofauna Diversity: A Case Study in Riau Province, Indonesia

Authors: Yanto Santosa, Yohanna Dalimunthe, Intan Purnamasari

Abstract:

Expansion of Indonesia oil palm plantations has contributed significantly to the national revenue annually and has been able to absorb millions of workers. Behind all these positive contributions, such expansion was accused as the cause of the decline in wildlife populations such as mammal and herpetofauna. Research was carried out in 8 oil palm plantations in Riau Province of Indonesia from March to April 2016, to determine the impacts of oil palm plantations on mammal and herpetofauna biodiversity. Direct observation was conducted simultaneously equipped with camera traps placed (for mammal) on various land cover types. For mammals' survey, line transect method was used, and for herpetofauna, Visual Encounter Survey (VES) method was used. Landsat imagery was used to interpret land cover types 3 years prior to the establishment of the oil palm plantations. The study revealed that one year before the oil palm plantations was established, most the land covers were comprised of 49.96% rubber plantations, 35.99% secondary forest, 10.17% bare land, 3.03% shrubs and 0.84% mixed dryland farming-shrubs. Based on the number of species found, it was identified that on the average, mammal diversity in 4 of 8 oil palm plantations, showed a decrease by 14.29%-100%, whereas 2 plantations did not experienced any changes in the number of species and one plantation showed an increased in the number of mammal species. The plantations that experienced a reduction in the number of mammal’s diversity were previously dominated covered by secondary forest (40%) and rubber plantation (40%), while those experiencing no changes in the number of species were also dominated by secondary forest. The area with an increased number of mammal species was historically dominated by rubber plantation. On the contrary, significant results were shown for herpetofauna, where all study sites showed a sharp increase in the number of herpetofauna species, by 100%-225.00%.

Keywords: herpetofauna, impact, mammal, oil palm plantations

Procedia PDF Downloads 209
327 Efficacy of Conservation Strategies for Endangered Garcinia gummi gutta under Climate Change in Western Ghats

Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

Abstract:

Climate change is continuously affecting the ecosystem, species distribution as well as global biodiversity. The assessment of the species potential distribution and the spatial changes under various climate change scenarios is a significant step towards the conservation and mitigation of habitat shifts, and species' loss and vulnerability. In this context, the present study aimed to predict the influence of current and future climate on an ecologically vulnerable medicinal species, Garcinia gummi-gutta, of the southern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. The future projections were made for the period of 2050 and 2070 with RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario of 4.5 and 8.5 using 84 species occurrence data, and climatic variables from three different models of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment. Climatic variables contributions were assessed using jackknife test and AOC value 0.888 indicates the model perform with high accuracy. The major influencing variables will be annual precipitation, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of driest quarter. The model result shows that the current high potential distribution of the species is around 1.90% of the study area, 7.78% is good potential; about 90.32% is moderate to very low potential for species suitability. Finally, the results of all model represented that there will be a drastic decline in the suitable habitat distribution by 2050 and 2070 for all the RCP scenarios. The study signifies that MaxEnt model might be an efficient tool for ecosystem management, biodiversity protection, and species re-habitation planning under climate change.

Keywords: Garcinia gummi gutta, maximum entropy modeling, medicinal plants, climate change, western ghats, MaxEnt

Procedia PDF Downloads 357
326 Evaluation of the Analytic for Hemodynamic Instability as a Prediction Tool for Early Identification of Patient Deterioration

Authors: Bryce Benson, Sooin Lee, Ashwin Belle

Abstract:

Unrecognized or delayed identification of patient deterioration is a key cause of in-hospitals adverse events. Clinicians rely on vital signs monitoring to recognize patient deterioration. However, due to ever increasing nursing workloads and the manual effort required, vital signs tend to be measured and recorded intermittently, and inconsistently causing large gaps during patient monitoring. Additionally, during deterioration, the body’s autonomic nervous system activates compensatory mechanisms causing the vital signs to be lagging indicators of underlying hemodynamic decline. This study analyzes the predictive efficacy of the Analytic for Hemodynamic Instability (AHI) system, an automated tool that was designed to help clinicians in early identification of deteriorating patients. The lead time analysis in this retrospective observational study assesses how far in advance AHI predicted deterioration prior to the start of an episode of hemodynamic instability (HI) becoming evident through vital signs? Results indicate that of the 362 episodes of HI in this study, 308 episodes (85%) were correctly predicted by the AHI system with a median lead time of 57 minutes and an average of 4 hours (240.5 minutes). Of the 54 episodes not predicted, AHI detected 45 of them while the episode of HI was ongoing. Of the 9 undetected, 5 were not detected by AHI due to either missing or noisy input ECG data during the episode of HI. In total, AHI was able to either predict or detect 98.9% of all episodes of HI in this study. These results suggest that AHI could provide an additional ‘pair of eyes’ on patients, continuously filling the monitoring gaps and consequently giving the patient care team the ability to be far more proactive in patient monitoring and adverse event management.

Keywords: clinical deterioration prediction, decision support system, early warning system, hemodynamic status, physiologic monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 161