Search results for: cumulative past inaccuracy

Authors: Arash Azarpanah, Masoud Zadehbagheri, Shorangiz Javanmardi

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Abiotic stresses are the principle threat to plant growth and crop productivity all over the world. In order to improve the germination of corn seeds in drought stress conditions, effect of seed priming by various concentrations of salicylic acid (SA) (0.8 and 0.2 mM) on activities of catalase and peroxidase in Zea mays L. plant (Var-Sc.704) was evaluated at Agriculture Research Center located in Arsenjan city in Iran, during summer 2013. A farm research was done in RCBD as factorial with three replications. We considered four irrigation was carried out once the cumulative evaporation from Pan Class A come to 40, 60, 80 and 100 mm. Results illustrated that drought stress significantly increased activities of catalase and peroxidase and also treatment with salicylic acid significantly increased activities of catalase and peroxidase. In addition, treatment with salicylic acid enhances drought tolerance in Zea mays L. plant (Var-Sc.704) with increasing activities of antioxidant enzymes.

Keywords: catalase, corn, salicylic acid, water deficits stress, cumulative evaporation, Pan Class A

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Authors: Michel Moliere

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In the next decades, the thermal power generation segment will survive only if it achieves deep mutations, including drastical abatements of CO2 emissions and strong efficiency gains. In this challenging perspective, stationary gas turbines appear as serious candidates to lead the energy transition. Indeed, during the past decades, these turbomachines have made brisk technological advances in terms of efficiency, reliability, fuel flex (including the combustion of hydrogen), and the ability to hybridize with regenrables. It is, therefore, timely to summarize the progresses achieved by gas turbines in the recent past and to examine what are their assets to face the challenges of the energy transition.

Keywords: energy transition, gas turbines, decarbonization, power generation

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Javed Khan, Aamir Saeed Malik, Nidal Kamel, Sarat Chandra Dass, Azura Mohd Affandi

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Low contrast images can result from the wrong setting of image acquisition or poor illumination conditions. Such images may not be visually appealing and can be difficult for feature extraction. Contrast enhancement of color images can be useful in medical area for visual inspection. In this paper, a new technique is proposed to improve the contrast of color images. The RGB (red, green, blue) color image is transformed into normalized RGB color space. Adaptive histogram equalization technique is applied to each of the three channels of normalized RGB color space. The corresponding channels in the original image (low contrast) and that of contrast enhanced image with adaptive histogram equalization (AHE) are morphed together in proper proportions. The proposed technique is tested on seventy color images of acne patients. The results of the proposed technique are analyzed using cumulative variance and contrast improvement factor measures. The results are also compared with decorrelation stretch. Both subjective and quantitative analysis demonstrates that the proposed techniques outperform the other techniques.

Keywords: contrast enhacement, normalized RGB, adaptive histogram equalization, cumulative variance.

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Authors: Armin Shirbazo, Mohammad Vahab, Hamed Lamei Ramandi, Jalal Fahimpour

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One of the most effective ways for increasing production in wells that are faced with problems such as pressure depletion and low rate is hydraulic fracturing. Hydraulic fracturing is creating a high permeable path through the reservoir and simulated area around the wellbore. This is very important for low permeability reservoirs, which their production is uneconomical. In this study, the influence of the fracturing pattern in multi-stage fractured horizontal wells is analyzed for a tight, heavy oil reservoir to explore the impact of fracturing patterns on improving oil recovery. The horizontal well has five transverse fractures with the same fracture length, width, height, and conductivity properties. The fracture patterns are divided into four distinct shapes: uniform shape, diamond shape, U shape, and W shape. The results show that different fracturing patterns produce various cumulative production after ten years, and the best pattern can be selected based on the most cumulative production. The result also illustrates that optimum design in fracturing can boost the production up to 3% through the permeability distribution around the wellbore and reservoir.

Keywords: multi-stage fracturing, horizontal well, fracture patterns, fracture length, number of stages

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Siddharth Rana

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As we know so far, there are 3 dimensions that we are capable of interpreting and perceiving, and there is a 4th dimension, called time, about which we don’t know much yet. We, as humans, live in the 4th dimension, not the 3rd. We travel 3 dimensionally but cannot yet travel 4 dimensionally; perhaps if we could, then visiting the past and the future would be like climbing a mountain or going down a road. So far, we humans are not even capable of imagining any higher dimensions than the three dimensions in which we can travel. We are the beings of the 4th dimension; we are the beings of time; that is why we can travel 3 dimensionally; however, if, say, there were beings of the 5th dimension, then they would easily be able to travel 4 dimensionally, i.e., they could travel in the 4th dimension as well. Beings of the 5th dimension can easily time travel. However, beings of the 4th dimension, like us, cannot time travel because we live in a 4-D world, traveling 3 dimensionally. That means to ever do time travel, we just need to go to a higher dimension and not only perceive it but also be able to travel in it. However, traveling to the past is not very possible, unlike traveling to the future. Even if traveling to the past were possible, it would be very unlikely that an event in the past would be changed. In this paper, some approaches are provided to define time, our movement in time to the future, some aspects of time travel using dimensions, and how we can perceive a higher dimension.

Keywords: time, dimensions, String theory, relativity

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Authors: Natalia Bustos Sierra, Katrien Tersago

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It is currently proven that both extremes of temperature are associated with increased mortality and that air pollution is associated with temperature. This relationship is complex, and in countries with important seasonal variations in weather such as Belgium, some effects can appear as non-significant when the analysis is done over the entire year. We, therefore, analyzed the effect of short-term outdoor air pollution exposure on cardiovascular mortality during the warmer and colder months separately. We used daily cardiovascular deaths from acute cardiovascular diagnostics according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10: I20-I24, I44-I49, I50, I60-I66) during the period 2008-2013. The environmental data were population-weighted concentrations of particulates with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 µm (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 µm (PM₂.₅) (daily average), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) (daily maximum of the hourly average) and ozone (O₃) (daily maximum of the 8-hour running mean). A Generalized linear model was applied adjusting for the confounding effect of season, temperature, dew point temperature, the day of the week, public holidays and the incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) per 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risks (RR) were calculated for an increase of one interquartile range (IQR) of the air pollutant (μg/m³). These were presented for the four hottest months (June, July, August, September) and coldest months (November, December, January, February) in Belgium. We applied both individual lag model and unconstrained distributed lag model methods. The cumulative effect of a four-day exposure (day of exposure and three consecutive days) was calculated from the unconstrained distributed lag model. The IQR for PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, NO₂, and O₃ were respectively 8.2, 6.9, 12.9 and 25.5 µg/m³ during warm months and 18.8, 17.6, 18.4 and 27.8 µg/m³ during cold months. The association with CV mortality was statistically significant for the four pollutants during warm months and only for NO₂ during cold months. During the warm months, the cumulative effect of an IQR increase of ozone for the age groups 25-64, 65-84 and 85+ was 1.066 (95%CI: 1.002-1.135), 1.041 (1.008-1.075) and 1.036 (1.013-1.058) respectively. The cumulative effect of an IQR increase of NO₂ for the age group 65-84 was 1.066 (1.020-1.114) during warm months and 1.096 (1.030-1.166) during cold months. The cumulative effect of an IQR increase of PM₁₀ during warm months reached 1.046 (1.011-1.082) and 1.038 (1.015-1.063) for the age groups 65-84 and 85+ respectively. Similar results were observed for PM₂.₅. The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality is greater during warm months for lower pollutant concentrations compared to cold months. Spending more time outside during warm months increases population exposure to air pollution and can, therefore, be a confounding factor for this association. Age can also affect the length of time spent outdoors and the type of physical activity exercised. This study supports the deleterious effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CV) which varies according to season and age groups in Belgium. Public health measures should, therefore, be adapted to seasonality.

Keywords: air pollution, cardiovascular, mortality, season

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Authors: Harjot Singh Gill, Neelkanth Grover, Jwala Parshad Singla

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The main aim of this research work is to present the effect of coating on two different grades of grey cast iron using detonation spray method. Ni20Cr and Al2O3-13TiO2 powders were sprayed using detonation gun onto GI250 and GIHC substrates and the results as well as coating surface morphology of the coating is studied by XRD and SEM/EDAX analysis. The wear resistance of Ni20Cr and Al2O3-13TiO2 has been investigated on pin-on-disc tribometer using ASTM G99 standards. Cumulative wear rate and coefficient of friction (µ) were calculated under three normal load of 30N, 40N, 50N at constant sliding velocity of 1m/s. Worn out surfaces were analyzed by SEM/EDAX. The results show significant resistance to wear with Al2O3-13TiO2 coating as compared to Ni20Cr and bare substrates. SEM/EDAX analysis and cumulative wear loss bar charts clearly explain the wear behavior of coated as well as bare sample of GI250 and GIHC.

Keywords: detonation spray, grey cast iron, wear rate, coefficient of friction

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Authors: Valerii Dashuk

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The usage of the confidence intervals in economics and econometrics is widespread. To be able to investigate a random variable more thoroughly, joint tests are applied. One of such examples is joint mean-variance test. A new approach for testing such hypotheses and constructing confidence sets is introduced. Exploring both the value of the random variable and its deviation with the help of this technique allows checking simultaneously the shift and the probability of that shift (i.e., portfolio risks). Another application is based on the normal distribution, which is fully defined by mean and variance, therefore could be tested using the introduced approach. This method is based on the difference of probability density functions. The starting point is two sets of normal distribution parameters that should be compared (whether they may be considered as identical with given significance level). Then the absolute difference in probabilities at each 'point' of the domain of these distributions is calculated. This measure is transformed to a function of cumulative distribution functions and compared to the critical values. Critical values table was designed from the simulations. The approach was compared with the other techniques for the univariate case. It differs qualitatively and quantitatively in easiness of implementation, computation speed, accuracy of the critical region (theoretical vs. real significance level). Stable results when working with outliers and non-normal distributions, as well as scaling possibilities, are also strong sides of the method. The main advantage of this approach is the possibility to extend it to infinite-dimension case, which was not possible in the most of the previous works. At the moment expansion to 2-dimensional state is done and it allows to test jointly up to 5 parameters. Therefore the derived technique is equivalent to classic tests in standard situations but gives more efficient alternatives in nonstandard problems and on big amounts of data.

Keywords: confidence set, cumulative distribution function, hypotheses testing, normal distribution, probability density function

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Yasser O. Abualnaja1, Alexandra Pavlidou2, Taha Boksmati3, Ahmad Alharbi3, Hammad Alsulmi3, Saleh Omar Maghrabi3, Hassan Mowalad3, Rayan Mutwalli3, James H. Churchill4, Afroditi Androni2, Dionysios Ballas2, Ioannis Hatzianestis2, Harilaos Kontoyiannis2, Angeliki Konstantinopoulou2, Georgios Krokkos1, 5, Georgios Pappas2, Vassilis P. Papadopoulos2, Konstantinos Parinos2, Elvira Plakidi2, Eleni Rousselaki2, Dimitris Velaoras2, Panagiota Zachioti2, Theodore Zoulias2, Ibrahim Hoteit5.

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The coastal areas along the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on both the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf have been witnessing in the past decades an unprecedented economic growth and a rapid increase in anthropogenic activities. Therefore, the Saudi Arabian government has decided to frame a strategy for sustainable development of the coastal and marine environments, which comes in the context of the Vision 2030, aimed at providing the first comprehensive ‘Status Quo Assessment’ of the Kingdom’s coastal and marine environments. This strategy will serve as a baseline assessment for future monitoring activities; this baseline is relied on scientific evidence of the drivers, pressures, and their impact on the environments of the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf. A key element of the assessment was the cumulative pressures of the hotspots analysis, which was developed following the principles of the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework and using the cumulative pressure and impact assessment methodology. Ten hotspot sites were identified, eight in the Red Sea and two in the Arabian Gulf. Thus, multidisciplinary research cruises were conducted throughout the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf coastal and marine environments in June/July 2021 and September 2021, respectively, in order to understand the relative impact of hydrography and the various pressures on the quality of seawater and sediments. The main objective was to record the physical and biogeochemical parameters along the coastal waters of the Kingdom, tracing the dispersion of contaminants related to specific pressures. The assessment revealed the effect of hydrography on the trophic status of the southern marine coastal areas of the Red Sea. Jeddah Lagoon system seems to face significant eutrophication and pollution challenges, whereas sediments are enriched in some heavy metals in many areas of the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf. This multidisciplinary research in the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf coastal waters will pave the way for future detailed environmental monitoring strategies for the Saudi Arabian marine environment.

Keywords: arabian gulf, contaminants, hotspot, red sea

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Authors: Palaniraj Rama Raj, Himeesh Kumar, Paul Adler

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Purpose: To investigate the effect of ultrasound energy, expressed as cumulative dissipated energy (CDE), on short and long-term outcomes after uncomplicated cataract surgery by phacoemulsification. Methods: In this single-surgeon, two-center retrospective study, non-glaucomatous participants who underwent uncomplicated cataract surgery were investigated. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and intraocular pressure (IOP) were measured at 3 separate time points: pre-operative, Day 1 and ≥1 month. Anterior chamber (AC) inflammation and corneal odema (CO) were assessed at 2 separate time points: Pre-operative and Day 1. Short-term changes (Day 1) in BCVA, IOP, AC and CO and long-term changes (≥1 month) in BCVA and IOP were evaluated as a function of CDE using a multivariate multiple linear regression model, adjusting for age, gender, cataract type and grade, preoperative IOP, preoperative BCVA and duration of long-term follow-up. Results: 110 eyes from 97 non-glaucomatous participants were analysed. 60 (54.55%) were female and 50 (45.45%) were male. The mean (±SD) age was 73.40 (±10.96) years. Higher CDE counts were strongly associated with higher grades of sclerotic nuclear cataracts (p <0.001) and posterior subcapsular cataracts (p <0.036). There was no significant association between CDE counts and cortical cataracts. CDE counts also had a positive correlation with Day 1 CO (p <0.001). There was no correlation between CDE counts and Day 1 AC inflammation. Short-term and long-term changes in post-operative IOP did not demonstrate significant associations with CDE counts (all p >0.05). Though there was no significant correlation between CDE counts and short-term changes in BCVA, higher CDE counts were strongly associated with greater improvements in long-term BCVA (p = 0.011). Conclusion: Though higher CDE counts were strongly associated with higher grades of Day 1 postoperative CO, there appeared to be no detriment to long-term BCVA. Correspondingly, the strong positive correlation between CDE counts and long-term BCVA was likely reflective of the greater severity of underlying cataract type and grade. CDE counts were not associated with short-term or long-term postoperative changes in IOP.

Keywords: cataract surgery, phacoemulsification, cumulative dissipated energy, CDE, surgical outcomes

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Authors: R. Kiš, M. Malcho, M. Janovcová

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This work aims to present a numerical analysis of the natural gas which flows through a high-pressure pipeline and an orifice plate, through the use of CFD methods. The paper contains CFD calculations for the flow of natural gas in a pipe with different geometry used for the orifice plates. One of them has a standard geometry and a shape without any deformation and the other is deformed by the action of the pressure differential. It shows the behaviour of natural gas in a pipeline using the velocity profiles and pressure fields of the gas in both models with their differences. The entire research is based on the elimination of any inaccuracy which should appear in the flow of the natural gas measured in the high-pressure pipelines of the gas industry and which is currently not given in the relevant standard.

Keywords: orifice plate, high-pressure pipeline, natural gas, CFD analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Yu-Chen Wei, Yang-Cheng Lu, I-Chi Lin

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This study examines the impacts of news sentiment and press freedom on abnormal returns during the earnings announcement in greater China including the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Taiwan stock markets. The news sentiment ratio is calculated by using the content analysis of semantic orientation. The empirical results show that news released prior to the event date may decrease the cumulative abnormal returns prior to the earnings announcement regardless of whether it is released in China or Taiwan. By contrast, companies with optimistic financial news may increase the cumulative abnormal returns during the announcement date. Furthermore, the difference in terms of press freedom is considered in greater China to compare the impact of press freedom on abnormal returns. The findings show that, the freer the press is, the more negatively significant will be the impact of news on the abnormal returns, which means that the press freedom may decrease the ability of the news to impact the abnormal returns. The intuition is that investors may receive alternative news related to each company in the market with greater press freedom, which proves the efficiency of the market and reduces the possible excess returns.

Keywords: news, press freedom, Greater China, earnings announcement, abnormal returns

Procedia PDF Downloads 367

Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

Procedia PDF Downloads 51

Authors: Jéssica Ferreira Rodrigues, Júlio Silvio De Sousa Bueno Filho, Vanessa Rios De Souza, Ana Carla Marques Pinheiro

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This study aimed to evaluate the implications of the block size and testing order on efficiency and precision of preference estimation for Dulce de leche samples. Efficiency was defined as the inverse of the average variance of pairwise comparisons among treatments. Precision was defined as the inverse of the variance of treatment means (or effects) estimates. The experiment was originally designed to test 16 treatments as a series of 8 Sudoku 16x16 designs being 4 randomized independently and 4 others in the reverse order, to yield balance in testing order. Linear mixed models were assigned to the whole experiment with 112 testers and all their grades, as well as their partially balanced subgroups, namely: a) experiment with the four initial EU; b) experiment with EU 5 to 8; c) experiment with EU 9 to 12; and b) experiment with EU 13 to 16. To record responses we used a nine-point hedonic scale, it was assumed a mixed linear model analysis with random tester and treatments effects and with fixed test order effect. Analysis of a cumulative random effects probit link model was very similar, with essentially no different conclusions and for simplicity, we present the results using Gaussian assumption. R-CRAN library lme4 and its function lmer (Fit Linear Mixed-Effects Models) was used for the mixed models and libraries Bayesthresh (default Gaussian threshold function) and ordinal with the function clmm (Cumulative Link Mixed Model) was used to check Bayesian analysis of threshold models and cumulative link probit models. It was noted that the number of samples tested in the same session can influence the acceptance level, underestimating the acceptance. However, proving a large number of samples can help to improve the samples discrimination.

Keywords: acceptance, block size, mixed linear model, testing order, testing order

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Authors: Ezgi Nevruz, Kasirga Yildirak, Ashis SenGupta

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Comparing or ranking risks is the main motivating factor behind the human trait of making choices. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is a preference theory approach that evaluates perception and bias in decision making under risk and uncertainty. We aim to investigate the aggregate claims of different risk classes in terms of their comparability and amenability to ordering when the impact of risk perception is considered. For this aim, we prioritize the aggregate claims taken as actuarial risks by using various stochastic ordering relations. In order to prioritize actuarial risks, we use stochastic relations such as stochastic dominance and stop-loss dominance that are proposed in the frame of partial order theory. We take into account the dependency of the individual claims exposed to similar environmental risks. At first, we modify the zero-utility premium principle in order to obtain a solution for the stop-loss premium under CPT. Then, we propose a stochastic stop-loss dominance of the aggregate claims and find a relation between the stop-loss dominance and the first-order stochastic dominance under the dependence assumption by using properties of the familiar as well as some emerging multivariate claim distributions.

Keywords: cumulative prospect theory, partial order theory, risk perception, stochastic dominance, stop-loss dominance

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Authors: Majid Amidpour, Parisa Karimi, Marzieh Joda

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For the last few years, release of burned undesirable by-products has become a challenging issue in oil industries. Flaring, as one of the main sources of air contamination, involves detrimental and long-lasting effects on human health and is considered a substantial reason for energy losses worldwide. This research involves studying the implications of two main flare gas recovery methods at three oil refineries, all in Iran as the case I, case II, and case III in which the production capacities are increasing respectively. In the proposed methods, flare gases are converted into more valuable products, before combustion by the flare networks. The first approach involves collecting, compressing and converting the flare gas to smokeless fuel which can be used in the fuel gas system of the refineries. The other scenario includes utilizing the flare gas as a feed into liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production unit already established in the refineries. The processes of these scenarios are simulated, and the capital investment is calculated for each procedure. The cumulative profits of the scenarios are evaluated using Net Present Value method. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis based on total propane and butane mole fraction is carried out to make a rational comparison for LPG production approach, and the results are illustrated for different mole fractions of propane and butane. As the mole fraction of propane and butane contained in LPG differs in summer and winter seasons, the results corresponding to LPG scenario are demonstrated for each season. The results of the simulations show that cumulative profit in fuel gas production scenario and LPG production rate increase with the capacity of the refineries. Moreover, the investment return time in LPG production method experiences a decline, followed by a rising trend with an increase in C₃ and C₄ content. The minimum value of time return occurs at propane and butane sum concentration values of 0.7, 0.6, and 0.7 in case I, II, and III, respectively. Based on comparison of the time of investment return and cumulative profit, fuel gas production is the superior scenario for three case studies.

Keywords: flare gas reduction, liquefied petroleum gas, fuel gas, net present value method, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: sulmaz Mozaffari

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Nostalgia is one of the hot-debated issues in critical psychology which has been translated as the yearning or gloom in Persian. It is defined as the regret of the sweet past and the contrast of the present with the past. The feeling of alienation and being remote from the home, remembering death, the regret of childhood and youth, separation of the beloved, remembering the glorious era of history, desire for the ancient times, and the hope for Utopia are considered as its components. Nazik Al-Malaika, a contemporary poet of Arabic literature, has depicted some shapes and dimensions of sympathy, regret and anguish in her poems. Utilizing a nostalgic approach to the past, this paper has reflected upon love, memories of childhood and youth and hope for Utopia "and also aimed at explaining each one's manifestations through a comparative perspective.

Keywords: Nazik al-malaika, poem, nostalgia, personal memory, collective memory

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Authors: Umar Farouk Abbas, Danjuma Mustapha, Hamisu Idi

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It is now a known fact that quality is an important issue in manufacturing industries. A control chart is an integrated and powerful tool in statistical process control (SPC). The mean µ and standard deviation σ parameters are estimated. In general, the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) and multivariate cumulative sum (MCUSUM) are used in the detection of small shifts in joint monitoring of several correlated variables; the charts used information from past data which makes them sensitive to small shifts. The aim of the paper is to compare the performance of Shewhart xbar, MEWMA, and MCUSUM control charts in terms of their false rates when parameters are estimated with autocorrelation. A simulation was conducted in R software to generate the average run length (ARL) values of each of the charts. After the analysis, the results show that a comparison of the false alarm rates of the charts shows that MEWMA chart has lower false alarm rates than the MCUSUM chart at various levels of parameter estimated to the number of ARL0 (in control) values. Also noticed was that the sample size has an advert effect on the false alarm of the control charts.

Keywords: average run length, MCUSUM chart, MEWMA chart, false alarm rate, parameter estimation, simulation

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Authors: Raneem O. Salem, Najwa Al-Mously, Nihal Mohamed Nabil, Abdulmohsen H. Al-Zalabani, Abeer F. Al-Dhawi, Nasser Al-Hamdan

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Objective: There are various demographic and educational factors that affect the academic performance of undergraduate medical students. The objective of this study is to identify these factors and correlate them to the GPA of the students. Methods: A cross-sectional study design utilizing grade point averages (GPAs) of two cohorts of students in both levels of the pre-clinical phase. In addition, self-administered questionnaire was used to evaluate the effect of these factors on students with poor and good cumulative GPA. Results: Among the various factors studied, gender, marital status, and the transportation used to reach the faculty significantly affected academic performance of students. Students with a cumulative GPA of 3.0 or greater significantly differed than those with a GPA of less than 3.0 being higher in female students, in married students, and type of transportation used to reach the college. Factors including age, educational factors, and type of transportation used have shown to create a significant difference in GPA between male and females. Conclusion: Factors such as age, gender, marital status, learning resources, study time, and the transportation used have been shown to significantly affect medical student GPA as a whole batch as well as when they are tested for gender.

Keywords: academic performance, educational factors, learning resources, study time, gender, socio-demographic factors

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Authors: Linhang Zhu, Hongyu Zhu, Jiahe Liu

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This paper investigated a method of indoor real-time positioning and mapping based on the Manhattan world assumption. In indoor environments, relying solely on feature matching techniques or other geometric algorithms for sensor pose estimation inevitably resulted in cumulative errors, posing a significant challenge to indoor positioning. To address this issue, we adopt the Manhattan world hypothesis to optimize the camera pose algorithm based on feature matching, which improves the accuracy of camera pose estimation. A special processing method was applied to image data frames that conformed to the Manhattan world assumption. When similar data frames appeared subsequently, this could be used to eliminate drift in sensor pose estimation, thereby reducing cumulative errors in estimation and optimizing mapping and positioning. Through experimental verification, it is found that our method achieves high-precision real-time positioning in indoor environments and successfully generates maps of indoor environments. This provides effective technical support for applications such as indoor navigation and robot control.

Keywords: Manhattan world hypothesis, real-time positioning and mapping, feature matching, loopback detection

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Authors: Shourav Ahmed, M. Gulam Kibria, Kais Zaman

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Control charts graphically verify variation in quality parameters. Attribute type control charts deal with quality parameters that can only hold two states, e.g., good or bad, yes or no, etc. At present, p-control chart is most commonly used to deal with attribute type data. In construction of p-control chart using binomial distribution, the value of proportion non-conforming must be known or estimated from limited sample information. As the probability distribution of fraction non-conforming (p) is considered in hyperbinomial distribution unlike a constant value in case of binomial distribution, it reduces the risk of false detection. In this study, a statistical control chart is proposed based on hyperbinomial distribution when prior estimate of proportion non-conforming is unavailable and is estimated from limited sample information. We developed the control limits of the proposed modified p-chart using the mean and variance of hyperbinomial distribution. The proposed modified p-chart can also utilize additional sample information when they are available. The study also validates the use of modified p-chart by comparing with the result obtained using cumulative distribution function of hyperbinomial distribution. The study clearly indicates that the use of hyperbinomial distribution in construction of p-control chart yields much accurate estimate of quality parameters than using binomial distribution.

Keywords: binomial distribution, control charts, cumulative distribution function, hyper binomial distribution

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Authors: Victoria Siriaki Jorry, I. S. Mbalawata, Hayong Shin

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The main objective in a change detection problem is to develop algorithms for efficient detection of gradual and/or abrupt changes in the parameter distribution of a process or time series data. In this paper, we present a modified cumulative (MCUSUM) algorithm to detect the start and end of a time-varying linear drift in mean value of a time series data based on likelihood ratio test procedure. The design, implementation and performance of the proposed algorithm for a linear drift detection is evaluated and compared to the existing CUSUM algorithm using different performance measures. An approach to accurately approximate the threshold of the MCUSUM is also provided. Performance of the MCUSUM for gradual change-point detection is compared to that of standard cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart designed for abrupt shift detection using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of the expected time for detection, the MCUSUM procedure is found to have a better performance than a standard CUSUM chart for detection of the gradual change in mean. The algorithm is then applied and tested to a randomly generated time series data with a gradual linear trend in mean to demonstrate its usefulness.

Keywords: average run length, CUSUM control chart, gradual change detection, likelihood ratio test

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Authors: Tariq Abbas, Younus Muhammad, Sayyad Aun Muhammad

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Background : Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick born viral zoonotic disease that has been notified from almost all regions of Pakistan. The aim of this study was to investigate spatial distribution of CCHF cases reported to National Institue of Health , Islamabad during year 2013. Methods : Spatial statistics tools were applied to detect extent spatial auto-correlation and clusters of the disease based on adjusted cumulative incidence per million population for each district. Results : The data analyses revealed a large multi-district cluster of high values in the uplands of Balochistan province near Afghanistan border. Conclusion : The cluster included following districts: Pishin; Qilla Abdullah; Qilla Saifullah; Quetta, Sibi; Zhob; and Ziarat. These districts may be given priority in CCHF surveillance, control programs, and further epidemiological research . The location of the cluster close to border of Afghanistan and Iran highlight importance of the findings for organizations dealing with disease at national, regional and global levels.

Keywords: Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever, Pakistan, spatial autocorrelation, clusters , adjusted cumulative incidence

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Authors: Nazri Kama, Sufyan Basri, Roslina Ibrahim

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It is important to manage the changes in the software to meet the evolving needs of the customer. Accepting too many changes causes delay in the completion and it incurs additional cost. One type of information that helps to make the decision is through change impact analysis. Current impact analysis approaches assume that all classes in the class artifact are completely developed and the class artifact is used as a source of analysis. However, these assumptions are impractical for impact analysis in the software development phase as some classes in the class artifact are still under development or partially developed that leads to inaccuracy. This paper presents a novel impact analysis approach to be used in the software development phase. The significant achievements of the approach are demonstrated through an extensive experimental validation using three case studies.

Keywords: software development, impact analysis, traceability, static analysis.

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

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This paper discusses the effects of using progressive Type-I right censoring on the design of the Simple Step Accelerated Life testing using Bayesian approach for Weibull life products under the assumption of cumulative exposure model. The optimization criterion used in this paper is to minimize the expected pre-posterior variance of the PTH percentile time of failures. The model variables are the stress changing time and the stress value for the first step. A comparison between the conventional and the progressive Type-I right censoring is provided. The results have shown that the progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of testing on the expense of the test precision when the sample size is small. Moreover, the results have shown that using strong priors or large sample size reduces the sensitivity of the test precision to the censoring proportion. Hence, the progressive Type-I right censoring is recommended in these cases as progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of the test and doesn't affect the precision of the test a lot. Moreover, the results have shown that using direct or indirect priors affects the precision of the test.

Keywords: reliability, accelerated life testing, cumulative exposure model, Bayesian estimation, progressive type-I censoring, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Khalid A. Salman, Shereen Wagih, Tariq Munshi, Musaed Almalki, Safwan Zatari, Zahid Khan

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Aim: To measure exposure levels to family members and caregivers of Saudi patients treated with low dose I131 therapy, and household radiation exposure rate to predict different factors that can affect radiation exposure. Patients and methods: All adult self dependent patients with hyperthyroidism or cancer thyroid referred for low dose radioactive I131 therapy on outpatient basis are included. Radiation protection procedures are given to the participant and family members in details. TLD’s were dispensed to each participant in sufficient quantity for his/her family members living in the household. TLD’s are collected at fifth days post-dispense from patients who agreed to have a home visit during which the household is inspected and level of radiation contamination of surfaces was measured. Results: Thirty-two patients were enrolled in the current study, with a mean age of 43.1± 17.1 years Out of them 25 patients (78%) are females. I131 therapy was given in twenty patients (63%) for cancer thyroid of and for toxic goiter in the remaining twelve patients (37%), with an overall mean I131 dose of 24.1 ± 7.5mCi that is relatively higher in the former. The overall number of household family members and helpers of patients are 139, out of them77 are females (55.4%) & 62 are males (44.6%) with a mean age of 29.8± 17.6. The mean period of contact with the patient is 7.6 ±5.6hours. The cumulative radiation exposure shows that radiation exposure to all family members is below the exposure constraint (1mSv), with a range of 109 to 503uSv, and a mean value of 220.9±91 uSv. Numerical data shows a little higher exposure rate for family members of those who receive higher dose of I131 (patients with thyroid cancer) and household members who spent longer time with the patient, yet, the difference is statistically insignificant (P>0.05). Besides, no significant correlation was found between the degree of cumulative exposure of the family members to their gender, age, socioeconomic standard, educational level and residential factors. In the 21 home visits all data from bedrooms, reception areas and kitchens are below hazardous limits (0.5uSv/h) apart from bathrooms that give a slightly higher reading of 0.57±0.39 uSv/h in those with cancer thyroid who receive a higher radiation dose. A statistically significant difference was found between radiation exposure rate in bathrooms used by the patient versus those used by family members only, with a mean value of exposure rate of 0.701±0.21 uSv/h and 0.17±0.82 uSv/h respectively, with a p-value of 0.018 (<0.05). Conclusion: Family members of patients treated with low dose I131 on outpatient basis have a good compliance to radiation protection instruction if given properly with a cumulative radiation exposure rate evidently beyond the radiation exposure constraints of 1 mSv. Given I131 dose, hours spent with the patient, age, gender, socioeconomic standard, educational level and residential factors have no significant correlation with the cumulative radiation exposure. The patient bathroom exhibits more radiation exposure rate, needing more strict instructions for patient bathroom use and health hygiene.

Keywords: family members, radiation exposure, radioactive iodine therapy, radiation safety

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Authors: Bilal Orfali

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It is common practice in modern times to read mystical poetry and apply it to our mundane lives and loves. Sufis in the early period did the opposite. Their mystical hymns often spun out of the courtly poetic ghazal, panegyric, and wine songs. This paper highlights the relation of the Arabic courtly poetic canon to early Sufism. Sufi akhbār and poetry evoke past poets and their poetic heritage. They tend to quote or refer to eminent poets whose poetry must have been widely circulated and memorized. However, Sufism places this readily recognizable poetry in a new context that deliberately changes the past. It is a process of a metaphorization in which the reality of the pre-Islamic, Umayyad, and Abbasid models now acts as a device or metaphor for the Sufi poetics.

Keywords: Sufism, Arabic poetry, literature, Islamic literature, Abbasid

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Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

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Authors: Narayanappa Devakumar, Chengalappa Seenappa

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The field experiments were conducted during Rabi 2013 and summer 2014 at College of Sericulture, Chintamani, Chickaballapur district, Karnataka, India to find out the response of mulberry to different methods, levels of irrigation and mulching. The results showed that leaf yield and water productivity of mulberry were significantly influenced by different methods, levels of irrigation and mulching. Subsurface drip with lower level of irrigation at 0.8 CPE (Cumulative Pan Evaporation) recorded higher leaf yield and water productivity (42857 kg ha-1 yr-1and 364.41 kg hacm-1) than surface drip with higher level of irrigation at 1.0 CPE (38809 kg ha-1 yr-1 and 264.10 kg hacm-1) and micro spray jet (39931 kg ha-1 yr-1 and 271.83 kg hacm-1). Further, subsurface drip recorded minimum water used to produce one kg of leaf and to earn one rupee of profit (283 L and 113 L) compared to surface drip (390 L and 156 L) and micro spray jet (379 L and 152 L) irrigation methods. Mulberry leaf yield increased and water productivity decreased with increased levels of irrigation. However, these results indicated that irrigation of mulberry with subsurface drip increased leaf yield and water productivity by saving 20% of irrigation water than surface drip and micro spray jet irrigation methods in Eastern Dry Zone (EDZ) of Karnataka.

Keywords: cumulative pan evaporation, mulaberry, subsurface drip irrigation, water productivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Pavak Vyas, Hiral Vyas

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Spin-offs commonly known as demergers in India, represents dismantling of conglomerates which is a common phenomenon in financial markets across the world. Demergers are carried out with different motives. A demerger generally refers to a corporate restructuring where, a large company divests its stake in in its subsidiary and distributes the shares of the subsidiary - demerged entity to the existing shareholders without any consideration. Demergers in Indian companies are over a decade old phenomena, with many companies opting for the same. This study examines the demerger regulations in Indian capital markets and the announcement period price reaction of demergers during year 2010-2015. We study total 97 demerger announcements by companies listed in India and try to establish that demergers results into abnormal returns for the shareholders of the parent company. Using event study methodology we have analyzed the security price performance of the announcement day effect 10 days prior to announcement to 10 days post demerger announcement. We find significant out-performance of the security over the benchmark index post demerger announcements. The cumulative average abnormal returns range from 3.71% on the day of announcement of a private demerger to 2.08% following 10 days surrounding the announcement, and cumulative average abnormal returns range from 5.67% on the day of announcement of a public demerger to 4.15% following10 days surrounding the announcement.

Keywords: demergers, event study, spin offs, stock returns

Procedia PDF Downloads 268