Search results for: coverage probability

Authors: L. Marcos Domínguez, Nils Rage, Ongun B. Kazanci, Bjarne W. Olesen

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Thermally Activated Building Systems (TABS) have proven to be an energy-efficient solution to provide buildings with an optimal indoor thermal environment. This solution uses the structure of the building to store heat, reduce the peak loads, and decrease the primary energy demand. TABS require the heated or cooled surfaces to be as exposed as possible to the indoor space, but exposing the bare concrete surfaces has a diminishing effect on the acoustic qualities of the spaces in a building. Acoustic solutions capable of providing optimal acoustic comfort and allowing the heat exchange between the TABS and the room are desirable. In this study, the effects of free-hanging units on the cooling performance of TABS and the occupants’ thermal comfort was measured in a full-scale TABS laboratory. Investigations demonstrate that the use of free-hanging sound absorbers are compatible with the performance of TABS and the occupant’s thermal comfort, but an appropriate acoustic design is needed to find the most suitable solution for each case. The results show a reduction of 11% of the cooling performance of the TABS when 43% of the ceiling area is covered with free-hanging horizontal sound absorbers, of 23% for 60% ceiling coverage ratio and of 36% for 80% coverage. Measurements in actual buildings showed an increase of the room operative temperature of 0.3 K when 50% of the ceiling surface is covered with horizontal panels and of 0.8 to 1 K for a 70% coverage ratio. According to numerical simulations using a new TRNSYS Type, the use of comfort ventilation has a considerable influence on the thermal conditions in the room; if the ventilation is removed, then the operative temperature increases by 1.8 K for a 60%-covered ceiling.

Keywords: acoustic comfort, concrete core activation, full-scale measurements, thermally activated building systems, TRNSys

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Authors: U. Datta

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The main objective of this study is to find a suitable approach to monitor the land infrastructure growth over a period of time using multispectral satellite images. Bi-temporal change detection method is unable to indicate the continuous change occurring over a long period of time. To achieve this objective, the approach used here estimates a statistical model from series of multispectral image data over a long period of time, assuming there is no considerable change during that time period and then compare it with the multispectral image data obtained at a later time. The change is estimated pixel-wise. Statistical composite hypothesis technique is used for estimating pixel based change detection in a defined region. The generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) is used to detect the changed pixel from probabilistic estimated model of the corresponding pixel. The changed pixel is detected assuming that the images have been co-registered prior to estimation. To minimize error due to co-registration, 8-neighborhood pixels around the pixel under test are also considered. The multispectral images from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 from 2015 to 2018 are used for this purpose. There are different challenges in this method. First and foremost challenge is to get quite a large number of datasets for multivariate distribution modelling. A large number of images are always discarded due to cloud coverage. Due to imperfect modelling there will be high probability of false alarm. Overall conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the probabilistic method described in this paper has given some promising results, which need to be pursued further.

Keywords: co-registration, GLRT, infrastructure growth, multispectral, multitemporal, pixel-based change detection

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Authors: A. Cittadino, P. Gantes, C. Coviella, M. Casset, A. Sanchez Caro

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Three currently active landfills receive the waste from Buenos Aires city and the Great Buenos Aires suburbs. One of the first landfills to receive solid waste from this area was located in Villa Dominico, some 7 km south from Buenos Aires City. With an area of some 750 ha, including riparian habitats, divided into 14 cells, it received solid wastes from June 1979 through February 2004. In December 2010, a biological monitoring program was set up by CEAMSE and Universidad Nacional de Lujan, still operational to date. The aim of the monitoring program is to assess the state of several biological groups within the landfill and to follow their dynamics overtime in order to identify if any, early signs of damage the landfill activities might have over the biota present. Bird and rodent populations, aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates’ populations, cells vegetation coverage, and surrounding areas vegetation coverage and main composition are followed by quarterly samplings. Bird species richness and abundance were estimated by observation over walk transects on each environment. A total of 74 different species of birds were identified. Species richness and diversity were high for both riparian surrounding areas and within the landfill. Several grassland -typical of the 'Pampa'- bird species were found within the landfill, as well as some migratory and endangered bird species. Sherman and Tomahawk traps are set overnight for small mammal sampling. Rodent populations are just above detection limits, and the few specimens captured belong mainly to species common to rural areas, instead of city-dwelling species. The two marsupial species present in the region were captured on occasions. Aquatic macroinvertebrates were sampled on a watercourse upstream and downstream the outlet of the landfill’s wastewater treatment plant and are used to follow water quality using biological indices. Water quality ranged between weak and severe pollution; benthic invertebrates sampled before and after the landfill, show no significant differences in water quality using the IBMWP index. Insect biota from yellow sticky cards and pitfall traps showed over 90 different morphospecies, with Shannon diversity index running from 1.9 to 3.9, strongly affected by the season. An easy-to-perform non-expert demandant method was used to assess vegetation coverage. Two scales of determination are utilized: field observation (1 m resolution), and Google Earth images (that allow for a better than 5 m resolution). Over the eight year period of the study, vegetation coverage over the landfill cells run from a low 83% to 100% on different cells, with an average between 95 to 99% for the entire landfill depending on seasonality. Surrounding area vegetation showed almost 100% coverage during the entire period, with an average density from 2 to 6 species per sq meter and no signs of leachate damaged vegetation.

Keywords: biological indicators, biota monitoring, landfill species diversity, waste management

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Authors: Ansoné Human, Nantes Kirsten, Tanja Verster, Willem D. Schutte

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Every year the telecommunications industry suffers huge losses due to fraud. Mobile fraud, or generally, telecommunications fraud is the utilisation of telecommunication products or services to acquire money illegally from or failing to pay a telecommunication company. A South African telecommunication operator developed two internal fraud scorecards to mitigate future risks of application fraud events. The scorecards aim to predict the likelihood of an application being fraudulent and surprise fraudsters before they surprise the telecommunication operator by identifying fraud at the time of application. The scorecards are utilised in the vetting process to evaluate the applicant in terms of the fraud risk the applicant would present to the telecommunication operator. Telecommunication providers can utilise these scorecards to profile customers, as well as isolate fraudulent and/or high-risk applicants. We provide the complete methodology utilised in the development of the scorecards. Furthermore, a Determination and Discrimination (DD) ratio is provided in the methodology to select the most influential variables from a group of related variables. Throughout the development of these scorecards, the following was revealed regarding fraudulent cases and fraudster behaviour within the telecommunications industry: Fraudsters typically target high-value handsets. Furthermore, debit order dates scheduled for the end of the month have the highest fraud probability. The fraudsters target specific stores. Applicants who acquire an expensive package and receive a medium-income, as well as applicants who obtain an expensive package and receive a high income, have higher fraud percentages. If one month prior to application, the status of an account is already in arrears (two months or more), the applicant has a high probability of fraud. The applicants with the highest average spend on calls have a higher probability of fraud. If the amount collected changes from month to month, the likelihood of fraud is higher. Lastly, young and middle-aged applicants have an increased probability of being targeted by fraudsters than other ages.

Keywords: application fraud scorecard, predictive modeling, regression, telecommunications

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Authors: Kannapha Amaruchkul

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We formulate a dynamic overbooking model for a tour operator, in which most reservations contain at least two people. The cancellation rate and the timing of the cancellation may depend on the group size. We propose two overbooking policies, namely economic- and service-based. In an economic-based policy, we want to minimize the expected oversold and underused cost, whereas, in a service-based policy, we ensure that the probability of an oversold situation does not exceed the pre-specified threshold. To illustrate the applicability of our approach, we use tour package data in 2016-2018 from a tour operator in Thailand to build a data-driven robust optimization model, and we tested the proposed overbooking policy in 2019. We also compare the data-driven approach to the conventional approach of fitting data into a probability distribution.

Keywords: applied stochastic model, data-driven robust optimization, overbooking, revenue management, tour operator

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Authors: Shiwei Deng, Yang Bao

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In this paper, we present a model-based regression test suite reducing approach that uses EFSM model dependence analysis and probability-driven greedy algorithm to reduce software regression test suites. The approach automatically identifies the difference between the original model and the modified model as a set of elementary model modifications. The EFSM dependence analysis is performed for each elementary modification to reduce the regression test suite, and then the probability-driven greedy algorithm is adopted to select the minimum set of test cases from the reduced regression test suite that cover all interaction patterns. Our initial experience shows that the approach may significantly reduce the size of regression test suites.

Keywords: dependence analysis, EFSM model, greedy algorithm, regression test

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Authors: Xiaobin Liang, Wei Liang, Laibin Zhang, Xiaoyan Guo

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Pipelines pass through coal mined gobs inevitably in the mining area, the stability of which has great influence on the safety of pipelines. After extensive literature study and field research, it was found that there are a few risk assessment methods for coal mined gob pipelines, and there is a lack of data on the gob sites. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is widely used based on expert opinions. However, the subjective opinions or lack of experience of individual experts may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Hence the accuracy of the results needs to be further improved. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to achieve this purpose by combining bow-tie model and cloud inference. The specific evaluation process is as follows: First, a bow-tie model composed of a fault tree and an event tree is established to graphically illustrate the probability and consequence indicators of pipeline failure. Second, the interval estimation method can be scored in the form of intervals to improve the accuracy of the results, and the censored mean algorithm is used to remove the maximum and minimum values of the score to improve the stability of the results. The golden section method is used to determine the weight of the indicators and reduce the subjectivity of index weights. Third, the failure probability and failure consequence scores of the pipeline are converted into three numerical features by using cloud inference. The cloud inference can better describe the ambiguity and volatility of the results which can better describe the volatility of the risk level. Finally, the cloud drop graphs of failure probability and failure consequences can be expressed, which intuitively and accurately illustrate the ambiguity and randomness of the results. A case study of a coal mine gob pipeline carrying natural gas has been investigated to validate the utility of the proposed method. The evaluation results of this case show that the probability of failure of the pipeline is very low, the consequences of failure are more serious, which is consistent with the reality.

Keywords: bow-tie model, natural gas pipeline, coal mine gob, cloud inference

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Authors: Alisha Fisher

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Sex trafficking is a worldwide crisis that requires trauma-informed and survivor-centered media attention to accurate disseminate information. Much of the previous literature on sex trafficking tends to focus on the frequency of incidents, intervention, and support strategies for survivors, with few of them looking to how the media is conducting their reporting on sex trafficking cases to the public. Utilizing data of reports from the media of cases of sex trafficking in the two Canadian provinces with the highest cases of sex trafficking, Ontario and Nova Scotia, the authors sought to analyze the similarities and differences of how sex trafficking cases were being reported. A total of twenty articles were examined, with ten based within the province of Ontario and the remaining ten from the province of Nova Scotia. The authors coded in two processes, first, who the article was about, and second, the framing and content inclusion. The results suggest that there is high usage and reliance of voices and images of authority, with male people of color being shown as the perpetrators and white women being shown as the survivors. These findings can aid in the expansion of trauma-informed, survivor-centered media literacy of reports of sex trafficking to provide accurate insights and further developing robust methods to intersectional approaches to reporting cases of sex trafficking.

Keywords: sex trafficking, media coverage, Canada sex trafficking, content analysis

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Authors: A. G. Temnikov, O. S. Belova, L. L. Chernensky, T. K. Gerastenok, N. Y. Lysov, A. V. Orlov, D. S. Zhuravkova

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Hypothesis of the lightning initiation on the arrays of large hydrometeors are in the consideration. There is no agreement about the form the hydrometeors that could be the best for the lightning initiation from the thundercloud. Artificial charged water aerosol clouds of the positive or negative polarity could help investigate the possible influence of the hydrometeor form on the peculiarities and the probability of the lightning discharge initiation between the thundercloud and the ground. Artificial charged aerosol clouds that could create the electric field strength in the range of 5-6 kV/cm to 16-18 kV/cm have been used in experiments. The array of the model hydrometeors of the volume and plate form has been disposed near the bottom cloud boundary. It was established that the different kinds of the discharge could be initiated in the presence of the model hydrometeors array – from the cloud discharges up to the diffuse and channel discharges between the charged cloud and the ground. It was found that the form of the model hydrometeors could significantly influence the channel discharge initiation from the artificial charged aerosol cloud of the negative or positive polarity correspondingly. Analysis and generalization of the experimental results have shown that the maximal probability of the channel discharge initiation and propagation stimulation has been observed for the artificial charged cloud of the positive polarity when the arrays of the model hydrometeors of the cylinder revolution form have been used. At the same time, for the artificial charged clouds of the negative polarity, application of the model hydrometeor array of the plate rhombus form has provided the maximal probability of the channel discharge formation between the charged cloud and the ground. The established influence of the form of the model hydrometeors on the channel discharge initiation and from the artificial charged water aerosol cloud and its following successful propagation has been related with the different character of the positive and negative streamer and volume leader development on the model hydrometeors array being near the bottom boundary of the charged cloud. The received experimental results have shown the possibly important role of the form of the large hail particles precipitated in thundercloud on the discharge initiation.

Keywords: cloud and channel discharges, hydrometeor form, lightning initiation, negative and positive artificial charged aerosol cloud

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Authors: Taufik Hidayat, Yudha Nurhantari, Bambang U. D. Rianto

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Introduction: The examination of the Short Tandem Repeats (STR) locus on nuclear DNA is very useful in solving the paternity cases. The purpose of this study is to know the description of paternity cases and paternity index/probability of paternity analysis based on Indonesian allele frequency at Sardjito Hospital Yogyakarta. Method: This was an observational study with cross-sectional analytic method. Population and sample were all cases of disputed paternity from January 2011 to June 2015 that fulfill the inclusion and exclusion criteria and were examined at Forensic Medicine Unit of Sardjito Hospital, Medical Faculty of Gadjah Mada University. The paternity index was calculated with EasyDNA Program by Fung (2013). Analysis of the study was conducted by comparing the results through unpaired categorical test using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This study was designed with 95% confidence interval (CI) with α = 5% and significance level is p < 0,05. Results: From 42 disputed paternity cases we obtained trio paternity cases were 32 cases (76.2%) and duo without a mother was 10 cases (23.8%). The majority of the fathers' estimated ages were 21-30 years (33.3%) and the mother's age was 31-40 years (38.1%). The majority of the ages of children examined for paternity were under 12 months (47.6%). The majority of ethnic clients are Javanese. Conclusion of inclusion was 57.1%, and exclusion was 42.9%. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test obtained p-value = 0.673. Conclusion: There is no significant difference between paternity index/probability of paternity based on Indonesian allele frequency between trio and duo of paternity.

Keywords: disputed paternity, paternity index, probability of paternity, short tandem

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Authors: B. Ramakrishna, S. Sivamurthy Reddy

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The various types of aggregates such as granite, dolerite, Quartzite, dolomitic limestone, limestone and river gravel were used to produce the concrete with 28-day target compressive strength of 35, 60, and 80 Mpa. The compressive strength of concrete, as well as aggregates, was measured to study the effect of rupture probability of aggregate on the fracture surface of the concrete. Also, the petrographic studies were carried out to study the texture, type of minerals present and their relative proportions in various types of aggregates. The concrete of various grades produced with the same aggregate has shown a rise in RPCA with strength. However, the above relationship has ceased to exist in the concretes of the same grade, made of different types of aggregates. The carbonate aggregates namely Limestone and Dolomitic limestone have produced concrete with higher RPCA irrespective of the strength of concrete. The mode of origin, texture and mineralogical composition of aggregates have a significant impact on their pulse velocity and thereby the pulse velocity of concrete.

Keywords: RPCA, DL, G, LS, RG

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Authors: Arafat Husain

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The lubricants are one of the most used resource in today’s world. Lot of the superpowers are dependent on the lubricant resource for their country to function. To see that the lubricants are not adulterated we need to develop some efficient ways and to see which fluid has been added to the lubricant. So to observe the these malpractices in the lubricant we need to develop a method. We take a elastic ball and through it at probability circle in the submerged in the lubricant at a fixed force and see the distance of pitching and the point of fall. Then we the ratio of distance of falling to the distance of pitching and if the measured ratio is greater than one the fluid is less viscous and if the ratio is lesser than the lubricant is viscous. We will check the falling point of pure lubricant at fixed force and every pure lubricant would have a fixed falling point. After that we would adulterate the lubricant and note the falling point and if the falling point is less than the standard value then adulterate is solid and if the adulterate is liquid the falling point will be more than the standard value. Hence the comparison with the standard falling point will give the efficiency of the lubricant.

Keywords: falling point of lubricant, falling point ratios, probability circle, octane number

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

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Model updating method has received increasing attention in damage detection structures based on measured modal parameters. Therefore, a probability-based damage detection (PBDD) procedure based on a model updating procedure is presented in this paper, in which a one-stage model-based damage identification technique based on the dynamic features of a structure is investigated. The presented framework uses a finite element updating method with a Monte Carlo simulation that considers the uncertainty caused by measurement noise. Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) is used as the main algorithm for model updating. Ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM) is a multiagent algorithm based on the ideal gas molecular movement. Ideal gas molecules disperse rapidly in different directions and cover all the space inside. This is embedded in the high speed of molecules, collisions between them and with the surrounding barriers. In IGMM algorithm to accomplish the optimal solutions, the initial population of gas molecules is randomly generated and the governing equations related to the velocity of gas molecules and collisions between those are utilized. In this paper, an enhanced version of IGMM, which removes unchanged variables after specified iterations, is developed. The proposed method is implemented on two numerical examples in the field of structural damage detection. The results show that the proposed method can perform well and competitive in PBDD of structures.

Keywords: enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM), ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM), model updating method, probability-based damage detection (PBDD), uncertainty quantification

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Authors: Robert Vanderburg, Nicholas Gibson

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Objectives: There has been an increased focus in education students’ mathematics skills in the last two years. Universities have, specifically, had problems teaching students struggling with mathematics. This paper focuses on the ability of a digital platform to significantly improve mathematics skills for struggling students. Methods: 32 students who demonstrated low scores on a mathematics test were selected to take part in a one-month tutorial program using a digital mathematics portal. Students were provided feedback for questions posted on the portal and a fortnightly tutorial session. Results: A pre-test post-test design was analyzed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The analysis suggested that students improved skills in algebra, geometry, statistics, probability, ratios, fractions, and probability. Conclusion: Distance university students can improve their mathematics skills using a digital platform.

Keywords: digital education, distance education, higher education, mathematics education

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Authors: Deepa Das, Susmita Das

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Cognitive Radio (CR) is an emerging technology to combat the spectrum scarcity issues. This is achieved by consistently sensing the spectrum, and detecting the under-utilized frequency bands without causing undue interference to the primary user (PU). In soft decision fusion (SDF) based cooperative spectrum sensing, various evolutionary algorithms have been discussed, which optimize the weight coefficient vector for maximizing the detection performance. In this paper, we propose the hybrid invasive weed optimization and particle swarm optimization (IWO/PSO) algorithm as a fast and global optimization method, which improves the detection probability with a lesser sensing time. Then, the efficiency of this algorithm is compared with the standard invasive weed optimization (IWO), particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA) and other conventional SDF based methods on the basis of convergence and detection probability.

Keywords: cognitive radio, spectrum sensing, soft decision fusion, GA, PSO, IWO, hybrid IWO/PSO

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Authors: Sadaf Nawaz, Adnan Ahmed Khan, Asad Mahmood, Chaudhary Farrukh Javed

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Classically, an energy detector is implemented in time domain (TD). However, frequency domain (FD) based energy detector has demonstrated an improved performance. This paper presents a comparison between the two approaches as to analyze their pros and cons. A detailed performance analysis of the classical TD energy-detector and the periodogram based detector is performed. Exact and approximate mathematical expressions for probability of false alarm (Pf) and probability of detection (Pd) are derived for both approaches. The derived expressions naturally lead to an analytical as well as intuitive reasoning for the improved performance of (Pf) and (Pd) in different scenarios. Our analysis suggests the dependence improvement on buffer sizes. Pf is improved in FD, whereas Pd is enhanced in TD based energy detectors. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations results demonstrate the analysis reached by the derived expressions.

Keywords: cognitive radio, energy detector, periodogram, spectrum sensing

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Authors: Richard Ssempala, Francis Kintu, Christine K. Tashobya

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Funding for health remains a key constraint facing many developing countries, Uganda inclusive. Uganda’s health sector budget to the national budgetary allocation has stagnated between 8.2% to 10% over the years. Using data collected from different government documents, we sought to establish the implications of the budget allocation over the period (FY2010/11-2018/19) on health services delivery in Uganda to inform policymakers specifically Members of Parliament who are critical in making sectorial allocation on the steps they can adapt to change the terrain of health financing in Uganda. Findings revealed that the contribution of public funding to the health sector is low (15.7%) with private sources (42.6%) and donors contributing much more, with the bulk of private funds, are out of pocket. The study further revealed that low budget allocation had been manifested in inadequate and poorly motivated health workers, essential drug stock-outs that ultimately contribute to poor access to services, catastrophic health expenditures, and high morbidity rates. We recommend for a substantial and sustained increase in the government health budget, optimizing the available resources by addressing wastages, prioritizing health promotion, prevention and finally, institutionalizing the National Health Insurance Scheme.

Keywords: budget allocations, universal health coverage, health service delivery, Uganda

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Authors: Selma Sbit, Mohamed Bechir Dadi, Belgacem Chibani Rhaimi

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Incorporating Home eNodeB (HeNB) in cellular networks, e.g. Long Term Evolution Advanced (LTE-A), is beneficial for extending coverage and enhancing capacity at low price especially within the non-line-of sight (NLOS) environments such as homes. HeNB or femtocell is a small low powered base station which provides radio coverage to the mobile users in an indoor environment. This deployment results in a heterogeneous network where the available spectrum becomes shared between two layers. Therefore, a problem of Inter Cell Interference (ICI) appears. This issue is the main challenge in LTE-A. To deal with this challenge, various techniques based on frequency, time and power control are proposed. This paper deals with the impact of carrier aggregation and higher order MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output) schemes on the LTE-Advanced performance. Simulation results show the advantages of these schemes on the system capacity (4.10⁹ b/s/Hz when bandwidth B=100 MHz and when applying MIMO 8x8 for SINR=30 dB), maximum theoretical peak data rate (more than 4 Gbps for B=100 MHz and when MIMO 8x8 is used) and spectral efficiency (15 b/s/Hz and 30b/s/Hz when MIMO 4x4 and MIMO 8x8 are applying respectively for SINR=30 dB).

Keywords: capacity, carrier aggregation, LTE-Advanced, MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output), peak data rate, spectral efficiency

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Authors: Kim Anema, Matthias Max, Chris Zevenbergen

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For any flood risk manager the 'safety paradox' has to be a familiar concept: low probability leads to a sense of safety, which leads to more investments in the area, which leads to higher potential consequences: keeping the aggregated risk (probability*consequences) at the same level. Therefore, it is important to mitigate potential consequences apart from probability. However, when the (perceived) probability is so low that there is no recognizable trend for society to adapt to, addressing the potential consequences will always be the lagging point on the agenda. Preparedness programs fail because of lack of interest and urgency, policy makers are distracted by their day to day business and there's always a more urgent issue to spend the taxpayer's money on. The leading question in this study was how to address the social consequences of flooding in a context of (perceived) low probability. Disruptions of everyday urban life, large or small, can be caused by a variety of (un)expected things - of which flooding is only one possibility. Variability like this is typically addressed with resilience - and we used the concept of Community Resilience as the framework for this study. Drawing on face to face interviews, an extensive questionnaire and publicly available statistical data we explored the 'whole society response' to two recent urban flood events; the Brisbane Floods (AUS) in 2011 and the Dresden Floods (GE) in 2013. In Brisbane, we studied how the societal impacts of the floods were counteracted by both authorities and the public, and in Dresden we were able to validate our findings. A large part of the reactions, both public as institutional, to these two urban flood events were not fuelled by preparedness or proper planning. Instead, more important success factors in counteracting social impacts like demographic changes in neighborhoods and (non-)economic losses were dynamics like community action, flexibility and creativity from authorities, leadership, informal connections and a shared narrative. These proved to be the determining factors for the quality and speed of recovery in both cities. The resilience of the community in Brisbane was good, due to (i) the approachability of (local) authorities, (ii) a big group of ‘secondary victims’ and (iii) clear leadership. All three of these elements were amplified by the use of social media and/ or web 2.0 by both the communities and the authorities involved. The numerous contacts and social connections made through the web were fast, need driven and, in their own way, orderly. Similarly in Dresden large groups of 'unprepared', ad hoc organized citizens managed to work together with authorities in a way that was effective and speeded up recovery. The concept of community resilience is better fitted than 'social adaptation' to deal with the potential consequences of an (im)probable flood. Community resilience is built on capacities and dynamics that are part of everyday life and which can be invested in pre-event to minimize the social impact of urban flooding. Investing in these might even have beneficial trade-offs in other policy fields.

Keywords: community resilience, disaster response, social consequences, preparedness

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Authors: Pawasuth Saengdee, Chamras Promptmas, Ting Zeng, Silke Leimkühler, Ulla Wollenberger

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Sulfite has been used as a versatile preservative to limit the microbial growth and to control the taste in some food and beverage. However, it has been reported to cause a wide spectrum of severe adverse reactions. Therefore, it is important to determine the amount of sulfite in food and beverage to ensure consumer safety. An efficient electrocatalytic biosensor for sulfite detection was developed by immobilizing of human sulfite oxidase (hSO) on 3-aminoproplytriethoxysilane (APTES) modified indium tin oxide (ITO) electrode. Cyclic voltammetry was employed to investigate the electrochemical characteristics of the hSO modified ITO electrode for various pretreatment and binding conditions. Amperometry was also utilized to demonstrate the current responses of the sulfite sensor toward sodium sulfite in an aqueous solution at a potential of 0 V (vs. Ag/AgCl 1 M KCl). The proposed sulfite sensor has a linear range between 0.5 to 2 mM with a correlation coefficient 0.972. Then, the additional polymer layer of PVA was introduced to extend the linear range of sulfite sensor and protect the enzyme. The linear range of sulfite sensor with 5% coverage increases from 2.8 to 20 mM at a correlation coefficient of 0.983. In addition, the stability of sulfite sensor with 5% PVA coverage increases until 14 days when kept in 0.5 mM Tris-buffer, pH 7.0 at 4 8C. Therefore, this sensor could be applied for the detection of sulfite in the real sample, especially in food and beverage.

Keywords: sulfite oxidase, bioelectrocatalytsis, indium tin oxide, direct electrochemistry, sulfite sensor

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Authors: Phontip Kanlahasuth

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This paper presents the environmental safety and occupational health risk assessment of rocket static test by assessing risk level from probability and severity and then appropriately applying the risk control measures. Before the environmental safety and occupational health measures are applied, the serious hazards level is 31%, medium level is 24% and low level is 45%. Once risk control measures are practically implemented, the serious hazard level can be diminished, medium level is 38%, low level is 45% and eliminated level is 17%. It is clearly shown that the environmental safety and occupational health measures can significantly reduce the risk level.

Keywords: rocket static test, hazard, risk, risk assessment, risk analysis, environment, safety, occupational health, acceptable risk, probability, severity, risk level

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Authors: Gatut Priyowidodo, I. I. Indrayani

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The relations between Indonesia and Malaysia are always full of colors. Indonesia is always known as old brother of Malaysia since it has similar history, religion also socio culturally. Some decades show that the declination of relationship the both countries. Another time, as ASEAN members the two countries devotes their nationalities to purify their collective identities as Eastern. The objective of the research is to extricate the construction of Kompas online and Utusan online toward news coverage of the borders dispute between Indonesia-Malaysia in 2010. This research is proposed to examine central issues which reported by Kompas online and Utusan online consistently. As a media industry, Kompas coverage dominates circulation nationally. Kompas.com was the pioneer of online news in Indonesia and born in reformation era. Utusan is prominent media industry in Malaysia that conducted by UMNO as the ruling party in Malaysia for some periods. The method used in this research is framing method by Robert N. Entman’s which consists of four steps identification: defining problem, diagnosing causes, moral judgment and a treatment recommendation. This research found that Kompas news covered the border dispute must be negotiated as recognition of Indonesia dignity. In contrary, Utusan’s spectacle focused on the Indonesia demonstrans anarchism during the dispute.

Keywords: online media, media construction, the border dispute, Indonesia-Malaysia’s bilateral relations

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Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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Authors: Pornwipa Daoduong, Jairak Loysongkroa, Napaphan Viriyautsahakul, Wachira Pengjuntr

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Obesity is on of serious health problem in many countries including Thailand where the prevalence of childhood obesity has increased from 8.8 % in 2014 to 9.5 % in 2015 and 12.9 % in 2016. The Ministry of Public Health’s objective is to reduce prevalence of childhood Obesity to 10% or lower in 2017, by implementing the measure in relation to nutrition, physical activity (PA) and environment in 6,405 targeted school with proportion of school children with obesity is higher than 10 %. Smart Kids Coacher (SKC)” is a new innovative intervention created by Department of Health and consists of 252 regional and provincial officers. The SKC aims to train the super trainers about food and nutrition.PA and emotional control through implementing three learning activities including 1) Food for Fun is about Nutrition flag, Nutrition label, food portion and Nutrition surveillance; 2) Fun for Fit includes intermediated- and advanced level workouts within 60 minutes such as kangaroo dance, Chair stretching; and 3) Control emotional is about to prevent probability of access to unhealthy food, to ensure for having meal in appropriate time, and to recruit peers and family member to increase awareness among target groups. Apart from providing SKC lesson for 3,828 officers at district level, a number of students (2,176) as role model are selected through implementing “Smart Kids Leader: (SKL)”.Consequently. The SKC lowers proportion of childhood obesity from 17% in 2012 to 12.9% in 2016. Further, the SKC coverage should be expanded to other setting. Policy maker should be aware of the important of reduction of the prevalence of childhood obesity, and it’s related risk. Network and Collaboration between stakeholders are essential as well as an improvement of holistic intervention and knowledge “NuPETHS” for kids in the future.

Keywords: childhood obesity, model, obesity, smart kids coacher

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Authors: Gang Li, Ghulam Mubashar Hassan, Arcady Dyskin, Cara MacNish

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Digital image correlation (DIC) is a contactless full-field displacement and strain reconstruction technique commonly used in the field of experimental mechanics. Comparing with physical measuring devices, such as strain gauges, which only provide very restricted coverage and are expensive to deploy widely, the DIC technique provides the result with full-field coverage and relative high accuracy using an inexpensive and simple experimental setup. It is very important to study the natural patterns effect on the DIC technique because the preparation of the artificial patterns is time consuming and hectic process. The objective of this research is to study the effect of using images having natural pattern on the performance of DIC. A systematical simulation method is used to build simulated deformed images used in DIC. A parameter (subset size) used in DIC can have an effect on the processing and accuracy of DIC and even cause DIC to failure. Regarding to the picture parameters (correlation coefficient), the higher similarity of two subset can lead the DIC process to fail and make the result more inaccurate. The pictures with good and bad quality for DIC methods have been presented and more importantly, it is a systematic way to evaluate the quality of the picture with natural patterns before they install the measurement devices.

Keywords: Digital Image Correlation (DIC), deformation simulation, natural pattern, subset size

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Authors: Rachid Marzoug, Noureddine Lakouari, Beatriz Castillo Téllez, Margarita Castillo Téllez, Gerardo Alberto Mejía Pérez

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This paper developed a two-lane cellular automata model to explain the relationship between car accidents at a signalized intersection and traffic-related parameters. It is found that the increase of the lane-changing probability P?ₕ? increases the risk of accidents, besides, the inflow α and the probability of accidents Pₐ? exhibit a nonlinear relationship. Furthermore, depending on the inflow, Pₐ? exhibits three different phases. The transition from phase I to phase II is of first (second) order when P?ₕ?=0 (P?ₕ?>0). However, the system exhibits a second (first) order transition from phase II to phase III when P?ₕ?=0 (P?ₕ?>0). In addition, when the inflow is not very high, the green light length of one road should be increased to improve road safety. Finally, simulation results show that the traffic at the intersection is safer adopting symmetric lane-changing rules than asymmetric ones.

Keywords: two-lane intersection, accidents, fatality risk, lane-changing, phase transition

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Authors: Mohammad Rahim Rahnama, Amir Ali Kharazmi, Safiye Rokni

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The tourism industry will be the most important unlimited, sustainable source of income after the oil and automotive industries by 2020 and not only countries, but cities are striving to apprehend its various facets. In line with this objective, the present descriptive-analytical study, through survey and using a questionnaire, seeks to evaluate the probability of tourists’ return and their recommendation to their countrymen to travel to Mashhad, Iran. The population under study is a sample of 384 foreign tourists who, in 2016, arrived at Mashhad, the second metropolis in Iran and its biggest religious city. The Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to analyze the data. Twenty-six percent of the tourists are female and 74% are male. On average, each tourist has had 3.02 trips abroad and 2.1 trips to Mashhad. Tourists from 14 different countries have arrived at Mashhad. Kuwait (15.9%), Armenia (15.6%), and Iraq (10.9%) were the countries where most tourists originated. Seventy-six percent of the tourists traveled with family and 90% of the tourists arrived at Mashhad via airplane. Major purposes of tourists’ trip include pilgrimage (27.9%), treatment (22.1%) followed by pilgrimage and treatment combined (35.4%). Major issues for tourists, in the order of priority, include quality of goods and services (30.2%), shopping (18%), and inhabitants’ treatment of foreigners (15.9%). Main tourist attractions, in addition to the Holy Shrine of Imam Reza, include Torqabeh and Shandiz (Torqabeh 40.9% and Shandiz 29.9%), Neyshabour (18.2%) followed by Kalat, 4.4%. The average willingness to return among tourists is 3.13, which is higher than the mean 3, indicating satisfaction with the stay in Mashhad. Similarly, the average for tourists’ recommending to their countrymen to visit Mashhad is 3.42, which is also an indicator of tourists’ satisfaction with their presence in Mashhad. According to the findings of the Kaplan-Meier estimator, an increase in the number of tourists’ trips to Mashhad, and an increase in the number of tourists’ foreign trips, reduces the probability of recommending a trip to Mashhad by tourists. Similarly, willingness to return is higher among those who stayed at a relatives’ home compared with other patterns of residence (hotels, self-catering accommodation, and pilgrim houses). Therefore, addressing the issues raised by tourists is essential for their return and their recommendation to others to travel to Mashhad.

Keywords: international tourist, probability of return, satisfaction, Mashhad

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Authors: Xiaohan Bookman, Xiaoyan Zhu

Abstract:

The outputs of non-linear feed-forward neural network are positive, which could be treated as probability when they are normalized to one. If we take Entropy-Based Principle into consideration, the outputs for each sample could be represented as the distribution of this sample for different clusters. Entropy-Based Principle is the principle with which we could estimate the unknown distribution under some limited conditions. As this paper defines two processes in Feed-Forward Neural Network, our limited condition is the abstracted features of samples which are worked out in the abstraction process. And the final outputs are the probability distribution for different clusters in the clustering process. As Entropy-Based Principle is considered into the feed-forward neural network, a clustering method is born. We have conducted some experiments on six open UCI data sets, comparing with a few baselines and applied purity as the measurement. The results illustrate that our method outperforms all the other baselines that are most popular clustering methods.

Keywords: feed-forward neural network, clustering, max-entropy principle, probabilistic models

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Authors: Fouzia Khanam, Tridib Chowdhury, Belal Hossain, Sajedur Rahman, Mahfuzar Rahman

Abstract:

Introduction: Over the last decades, the world has achieved a noticeable success in preventing malaria. Nevertheless, malaria, a vector-borne infectious disease, remains a major public health burden globally as well as in Bangladesh. To achieve the goal of eliminating malaria, BRAC, a leading organization of Bangladesh in collaboration with government, is distributing free LLIN to the 13 endemic districts of the country. The study was conducted with the aim of assessing the gap between coverage, access, and utilization of LLIN among the people of the 13 malaria endemic districts of Bangladesh. Methods: This baseline study employed a community cross-sectional design triangulated with qualitative methods to measure households’ ownership, access and use of 13 endemic districts. A multistage cluster random sampling was employed for the quantitative part and for qualitative part a purposive sampling strategy was done. Thus present analysis included 2640 households encompassing a total of 14475 populations. Data were collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire through one on one face-to-face interview with respondents. All analyses were performed using STATA (Version 13.0). For the qualitative part participant observation, in-depth interview, focus group discussion, key informant interview and informal interview was done to gather the contextual data. Findings: According to our study, 99.8% of households possessed at least one-bed net in both study areas. 77.4% households possessed at least two LLIN and 43.2% households had access to LLIN for all the members. So the gap between coverage and access is 34%. 91.8% people in the 13 districts and 95.1% in Chittagong Hill Tracts areas reported having had slept under a bed net the night before interviewed. And despite the relatively low access, in 77.8% of households, all the members were used the LLIN the previous night. This higher utilization compared to access might be due to the increased awareness among the community people regarding LLIN uses. However, among those people with sufficient access to LLIN, 6% of them still did not use the LLIN which reflects the behavioral failure that needs to be addressed. The major reasons for not using LLIN, identified by both qualitative and quantitative findings, were insufficient access, sleeping or living outside the home, migration, perceived low efficacy of LLIN, fear of physical side effects or feeling uncomfortable. Conclusion: Given that LLIN access and use was a bit short of the targets, it conveys important messages to the malaria control program. Targeting specific population segments and groups for achieving expected LLIN coverage is very crucial. And also, addressing behavior failure by well-designed behavioral change interventions is mandatory.

Keywords: long lasting insecticide net, malaria, malaria control programme, World Health Organisation

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Authors: Gurbir Kaur, Surinder Pal Singh

Abstract:

The present study is a part of the research work on the effect of limestone powder (LP), silica fume (SF) and metakaolin (MK), on the flexural fatigue performance of steel fibre reinforced concrete (SFRC). Corrugated rectangular steel fibres of size 0.6x2.0x35 mm at a constant volume fraction of 1.0% have been incorporated in all mix combinations as the reinforcing material. Three mix combinations were prepared by replacing 30% of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) by weight with these cement additives in binary and ternary fashion to demonstrate their contribution. An experimental programme was conducted to obtain the fatigue lives of all mix combinations at various stress levels. The fatigue life data have been analysed as an attempt to determine the relationship between stress level ‘S’, number of cycles to failure ‘N’ and probability of failure ‘Pf’ for all mix combinations. The experimental coefficients of the fatigue equation have also been obtained from the fatigue data to represent the S-N-Pf curves analytically.

Keywords: cement additives, fatigue life, probability of failure, steel fibre reinforced concrete

Procedia PDF Downloads 389