Search results for: coverage probability

Authors: Linyi Fan, C.J. Schumaker

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Background: Biomedical efforts to treat Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have typically produced mixed to poor results, while more lifestyle-focused treatments such as exercise may fare better than existing biomedical treatments. A few promising studies have indicated that activities of daily life (ADL) may be a useful way of predicting AD. However, the existing cross-sectional studies fail to show how functional-related issues such as ADL in early years predict AD and how social factors influence health either in addition to or in interaction with individual risk factors. This study would helpbetterscreening and early treatments for the elderly population and healthcare practice. The findings have significance academically and practically in terms of creating positive social change. Methodology: The purpose of this quantitative historical, correlational study was to examine the relationship between early years’ ADL and the development of AD in later years. The studyincluded 4,526participantsderived fromRAND HRS dataset. The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is a longitudinal household survey data set that is available forresearchof retirement and health among the elderly in the United States. The sample was selected by the completion of survey questionnaire about AD and dementia. The variablethat indicates whether the participant has been diagnosed with AD was the dependent variable. The ADL indices and changes in ADL were the independent variables. A four-step multilevel regression model approach was utilized to address the research questions. Results: Amongst 4,526 patients who completed the AD and dementia questionnaire, 144 (3.1%) were diagnosed with AD. Of the 4,526 participants, 3,465 (76.6%) have high school and upper education degrees,4,074 (90.0%) were above poverty threshold. The model evaluatedthe effect of ADL and change in ADL on onset of AD in late years while allowing the intercept of the model to vary by level of education. The results suggested that the only significant predictor of the onset of AD was changes in early years’ ADL (b = 20.253, z = 2.761, p < .05). However, the result of the sensitivity analysis (b = 7.562, z = 1.900, p =.058), which included more control variables and increased the observation period of ADL, are not supported this finding. The model also estimated whether the variances of random effect vary by Level-2 variables. The results suggested that the variances associated with random slopes were approximately zero, suggesting that the relationship between early years’ ADL were not influenced bysociodemographic factors. Conclusion: The finding indicated that an increase in changes in ADL leads to an increase in the probability of onset AD in the future. However, this finding is not support in a broad observation period model. The study also failed to reject the hypothesis that the sociodemographic factors explained significant amounts of variance in random effect. Recommendations were then made for future research and practice based on these limitations and the significance of the findings.

Keywords: alzheimer’s disease, epidemiology, moderation, multilevel modeling

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Authors: Etienne Gatera

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Many studies have been conducted on SDT. Most of them focus on developed countries because of influencing factors such as; education, health, labor force, female labor force participation, industrialization, urbanization and migration. However, this thesis project paper aims to assess the impact of the total fertility rate (TFR) on the trends of the SDR in Rwanda. We will mainly be based in Rwanda after the 1994 genocide. Rwanda is located in East Africa, with approximately 13 million inhabitants. Thus, after the 1994 Tutsi genocide. The population growth rate exploded out of control with 6.17 children per woman in 1995. However, it's declined to 4.2 in 2014-2015 and declining to 4.1% in 2019-2020. Respectively with 3.4 children per woman in urban areas and 4.3 in rural areas. According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda. Rwanda's population is expected to continue to grow for the rest of the century and reach 33.35 million people in 2099, with 2.1 children per woman in 2050. However, this project document aims to demonstrate the impact of the TFR on SDT trends in Rwanda. Thus, the decline in the TFR in Rwanda began with the introduction of family planning practices, which now account for 47.5% in 2019. Childbearing with three children for rural women compared to two children in the city, the increase in Divorce and separation caused by the behavior called "Kuza n'ijoro" or "coming at night" similar to cohabitation in developed countries. The decline in remarriage is caused by single mothers behavior who prefer to raise their children rather than remarry. Therefore, the study used probability sampling with (Stratified random sampling) method with a survey questionnaire of 1067 respondents in the 5 Districts (3 in rural areas and two in urban areas), with the target group of women Age between 15-49. The study demonstrated that the age of marriage in rural areas is two years higher than in urban areas. Divorce is more common in urban is with 6.2% with 5.2% in rural areas. However, separation is more common in rural areas than in urban areas, with a lower rate of 3%, due to the higher system called "Kuza n'ijoro" or "come at night", similar to cohabitation in developed countries. The study revealed that more than 85% of divorced people prefer to remain single, which confirms the low remarriage rate. Childbearing has started to decrease, especially for young singles in urban areas, due to the economic situation, with national statistics showing that unemployment in the youth community is still 16% higher. Therefore, the study concluded by confirming the hypothesis based on the results of the TFR indicators such as marriage, remarriage, divorce, separation, divorce, Kuza n'ijoro, childbearing] and abortion. The study consists of four sections, an introduction and background, a review of the literature, a description of the data and methodology, an analysis of the data, discussion results and a conclusion.

Keywords: Kuza n'ijoro, Rwanda, second demographic transition (SDT), total fertility rate (TFR)

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Authors: Elham Bagheri, Yalda Mohsenzadeh

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Image memorability refers to the phenomenon where certain images are more likely to be remembered by humans than others. It is a quantifiable and intrinsic attribute of an image. Understanding how visual perception and memory interact is important in both cognitive science and artificial intelligence. It reveals the complex processes that support human cognition and helps to improve machine learning algorithms by mimicking the brain's efficient data processing and storage mechanisms. To explore the computational underpinnings of image memorability, this study examines the relationship between an image's reconstruction error, distinctiveness in latent space, and its memorability score. A trained autoencoder is used to replicate human-like memorability assessment inspired by the visual memory game employed in memorability estimations. This study leverages a VGG-based autoencoder that is pre-trained on the vast ImageNet dataset, enabling it to recognize patterns and features that are common to a wide and diverse range of images. An empirical analysis is conducted using the MemCat dataset, which includes 10,000 images from five broad categories: animals, sports, food, landscapes, and vehicles, along with their corresponding memorability scores. The memorability score assigned to each image represents the probability of that image being remembered by participants after a single exposure. The autoencoder is finetuned for one epoch with a batch size of one, attempting to create a scenario similar to human memorability experiments where memorability is quantified by the likelihood of an image being remembered after being seen only once. The reconstruction error, which is quantified as the difference between the original and reconstructed images, serves as a measure of how well the autoencoder has learned to represent the data. The reconstruction error of each image, the error reduction, and its distinctiveness in latent space are calculated and correlated with the memorability score. Distinctiveness is measured as the Euclidean distance between each image's latent representation and its nearest neighbor within the autoencoder's latent space. Different structural and perceptual loss functions are considered to quantify the reconstruction error. The results indicate that there is a strong correlation between the reconstruction error and the distinctiveness of images and their memorability scores. This suggests that images with more unique distinct features that challenge the autoencoder's compressive capacities are inherently more memorable. There is also a negative correlation between the reduction in reconstruction error compared to the autoencoder pre-trained on ImageNet, which suggests that highly memorable images are harder to reconstruct, probably due to having features that are more difficult to learn by the autoencoder. These insights suggest a new pathway for evaluating image memorability, which could potentially impact industries reliant on visual content and mark a step forward in merging the fields of artificial intelligence and cognitive science. The current research opens avenues for utilizing neural representations as instruments for understanding and predicting visual memory.

Keywords: autoencoder, computational vision, image memorability, image reconstruction, memory retention, reconstruction error, visual perception

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Authors: Caroline M. B. De Araujo, Helenise A. Do Nascimento, Claudia J. Da S. Cavalcanti, Mauricio A. Da Motta Sobrinho, Maria F. Pimentel

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Oil production is often followed by the joint production of water and gas. During the journey up to the surface, due to severe conditions of temperature and pressure, the mixing between these three components normally occurs. Thus, the three phases separation process must be one of the first steps to be performed after crude oil extraction, where the water-oil separation is the most complex and important step, since the presence of water into the process line can increase corrosion and hydrates formation. A wide range of methods can be applied in order to proceed with oil-water separation, being more commonly used: flotation, hydrocyclones, as well as the three phase separator vessels. Facing what has been presented so far, it is the aim of this paper to study a system consisting of a three-phase separator, evaluating the influence of three variables: temperature, working pressure and separator type, for two types of oil (light and heavy), by performing two factorial design plans 23, in order to find the best operating condition. In this case, the purpose is to obtain the greatest oil flow rate in the product stream (m3/h) as well as the lowest percentage of water in the oil stream. The simulation of the three-phase separator was performed using Aspen Hysys®2006 simulation software in stationary mode, and the evaluation of the factorial experimental designs was performed using the software Statistica®. From the general analysis of the four normal probability plots of effects obtained, it was observed that interaction effects of two and three factors did not show statistical significance at 95% confidence, since all the values were very close to zero. Similarly, the main effect "separator type" did not show significant statistical influence in any situation. As in this case, it has been assumed that the volumetric flow of water, oil and gas were equal in the inlet stream, the effect separator type, in fact, may not be significant for the proposed system. Nevertheless, the main effect “temperature” was significant for both responses (oil flow rate and mass fraction of water in the oil stream), considering both light and heavy oil, so that the best operation condition occurs with the temperature at its lowest level (30oC), since the higher the temperature, the liquid oil components pass into the vapor phase, going to the gas stream. Furthermore, the higher the temperature, the higher the formation water vapor, so that ends up going into the lighter stream (oil stream), making the separation process more difficult. Regarding the “working pressure”, this effect showed to be significant only for the oil flow rate, so that the best operation condition occurs with the pressure at its highest level (9bar), since a higher operating pressure, in this case, indicated a lower pressure drop inside the vessel, generating lower level of turbulence inside the separator. In conclusion, the best-operating condition obtained for the proposed system, at the studied range, occurs for temperature is at its lowest level and the working pressure is at its highest level.

Keywords: factorial experimental design, oil production, simulation, three-phase separator

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Authors: Ana Paula Soares, Alexandrina Lages, Helena Oliveira, Francisco-Javier Gutiérrez-Domínguez, Marisa Lousada

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From an early age, exposure to a spoken language allows us to implicitly capture the structure underlying the succession of the speech sounds in that language and to segment it into meaningful units (words). Statistical learning (SL), i.e., the ability to pick up patterns in the sensory environment even without intention or consciousness of doing it, is thus assumed to play a central role in the acquisition of the rule-governed aspects of language and possibly to lie behind the language difficulties exhibited by children with development language disorder (DLD). The research conducted so far has, however, led to inconsistent results, which might stem from the behavioral tasks used to test SL. In a classic SL experiment, participants are first exposed to a continuous stream (e.g., syllables) in which, unbeknownst to the participants, stimuli are grouped into triplets that always appear together in the stream (e.g., ‘tokibu’, ‘tipolu’), with no pauses between each other (e.g., ‘tokibutipolugopilatokibu’) and without any information regarding the task or the stimuli. Following exposure, SL is assessed by asking participants to discriminate between triplets previously presented (‘tokibu’) from new sequences never presented together during exposure (‘kipopi’), i.e., to perform a two-alternative-forced-choice (2-AFC) task. Despite the widespread use of the 2-AFC to test SL, it has come under increasing criticism as it is an offline post-learning task that only assesses the result of the learning that had occurred during the previous exposure phase and that might be affected by other factors beyond the computation of regularities embedded in the input, typically the likelihood two syllables occurring together, a statistic known as transitional probability (TP). One solution to overcome these limitations is to assess SL as exposure to the stream unfolds using online techniques such as event-related potentials (ERP) that is highly sensitive to the time-course of the learning in the brain. Here we collected ERPs to examine the neurofunctional correlates of SL in preschool children with DLD, and chronological-age typical language development (TLD) controls who were exposed to an auditory stream in which eight three-syllable nonsense words, four of which presenting high-TPs and the other four low-TPs, to further analyze whether the ability of DLD and TLD children to extract-word-like units from the steam was modulated by words’ predictability. Moreover, to ascertain if the previous knowledge of the to-be-learned-regularities affected the neural responses to high- and low-TP words, children performed the auditory SL task, firstly, under implicit, and, subsequently, under explicit conditions. Although behavioral evidence of SL was not obtained in either group, the neural responses elicited during the exposure phases of the SL tasks differentiated children with DLD from children with TLD. Specifically, the results indicated that only children from the TDL group showed neural evidence of SL, particularly in the SL task performed under explicit conditions, firstly, for the low-TP, and, subsequently, for the high-TP ‘words’. Taken together, these findings support the view that children with DLD showed deficits in the extraction of the regularities embedded in the auditory input which might underlie the language difficulties.

Keywords: development language disorder, statistical learning, transitional probabilities, word segmentation

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Authors: Tagel Gebrehiwot, Carolina Castilla

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Food insecurity and child malnutrition are among the most critical issues in Ethiopia. Accordingly, different reform programs have been carried to improve household food security. The Food Security Program (FSP) (among others) was introduced to combat the persistent food insecurity problem in the country. The FSP combines a safety net component called the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) started in 2005. The goal of PSNP is to offer multi-annual transfers, such as food, cash or a combination of both to chronically food insecure households to break the cycle of food aid. Food or cash transfers are the main elements of PSNP. The case for cash transfers builds on the Sen’s analysis of ‘entitlement to food’, where he argues that restoring access to food by improving demand is a more effective and sustainable response to food insecurity than food aid. Cash-based schemes offer a greater choice of use of the transfer and can allow a greater diversity of food choice. It has been proven that dietary diversity is positively associated with the key pillars of food security. Thus, dietary diversity is considered as a measure of household’s capacity to access a variety of food groups. Studies of dietary diversity among Ethiopian rural households are somewhat rare and there is still a dearth of evidence on the impact of PSNP on household dietary diversity. In this paper, we examine the impact of the Ethiopia’s PSNP on household dietary diversity and child nutrition using panel household surveys. We employed different methodologies for identification. We exploit the exogenous increase in kebeles’ PSNP budget to identify the effect of the change in the amount of money households received in transfers between 2012 and 2014 on the change in dietary diversity. We use three different approaches to identify this effect: two-stage least squares, reduced form IV, and generalized propensity score matching using a continuous treatment. The results indicate the increase in PSNP transfers between 2012 and 2014 had no effect on household dietary diversity. Estimates for different household dietary indicators reveal that the effect of the change in the cash transfer received by the household is statistically and economically insignificant. This finding is robust to different identification strategies and the inclusion of control variables that determine eligibility to become a PSNP beneficiary. To identify the effect of PSNP participation on children height-for-age and stunting we use a difference-in-difference approach. We use children between 2 and 5 in 2012 as a baseline because by then they have achieved long-term failure to grow. The treatment group comprises children ages 2 to 5 in 2014 in PSNP participant households. While changes in height-for-age take time, two years of additional transfers among children who were not born or under the age of 2-3 in 2012 have the potential to make a considerable impact on reducing the prevalence of stunting. The results indicate that participation in PSNP had no effect on child nutrition measured as height-for-age or probability of beings stunted, suggesting that PSNP should be designed in a more nutrition-sensitive way.

Keywords: continuous treatment, dietary diversity, impact, nutrition security

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Authors: Henry Lau, Dilupa Nakandala, Li Zhao

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In today’s business, it is well-recognized that risk is an important factor that needs to be taken into consideration before a decision is made. Studies indicate that both the number of risks faced by organizations and their potential consequences are growing. Supply chain risk management has become one of the major concerns for practitioners and researchers. Supply chain leaders and scholars are now focusing on the importance of managing supply chain risk. In order to meet the challenge of managing and mitigating supply chain risk (SCR), we must first identify the different dimensions of SCR and assess its relevant probability and severity. SCR has been classified in many different ways, and there are no consistently accepted dimensions of SCRs and several different classifications are reported in the literature. Basically, supply chain risks can be classified into two dimensions namely disruption risk and operational risk. Disruption risks are those caused by events such as bankruptcy, natural disasters and terrorist attack. Operational risks are related to supply and demand coordination and uncertainty, such as uncertain demand and uncertain supply. Disruption risks are rare but severe and hard to manage, while operational risk can be reduced through effective SCM activities. Other SCRs include supply risk, process risk, demand risk and technology risk. In fact, the disorganized classification of SCR has created confusion for SCR scholars. Moreover, practitioners need to identify and assess SCR. As such, it is important to have an overarching framework tying all these SCR dimensions together for two reasons. First, it helps researchers use these terms for communication of ideas based on the same concept. Second, a shared understanding of the SCR dimensions will support the researchers to focus on the more important research objective: operationalization of SCR, which is very important for assessing SCR. In general, fresh food supply chain is subject to certain level of risks, such as supply risk (low quality, delivery failure, hot weather etc.) and demand risk (season food imbalance, new competitors). Effective strategies to mitigate fresh food supply chain risk are required to enhance operations. Before implementing effective mitigation strategies, we need to identify the risk sources and evaluate the risk level. However, assessing the supply chain risk is not an easy matter, and existing research mainly use qualitative method, such as risk assessment matrix. To address the relevant issues, this paper aims to analyze the risk factor of the fresh food supply chain using an approach comprising both fuzzy logic and hierarchical holographic modeling techniques. This novel approach is able to take advantage the benefits of both of these well-known techniques and at the same time offset their drawbacks in certain aspects. In order to develop this integrated approach, substantial research work is needed to effectively combine these two techniques in a seamless way, To validate the proposed integrated approach, a case study in a fresh food supply chain company was conducted to verify the feasibility of its functionality in a real environment.

Keywords: fresh food supply chain, fuzzy logic, hierarchical holographic modelling, operationalization, supply chain risk

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Authors: Aya Al Masri, Kamel Guerchouche, Youssef Laynaoui, Safoin Aktaou, Malorie Martin, Fouad Maaloul

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Introduction: Mobile C-arms move throughout operating rooms of the operating theater. Being designed to move between rooms, they are not equipped with relays to retrieve the exposition information and export it outside the room. Therefore, no light signaling is available outside the room to warn the X-ray emission for staff. Inadvertent exposition of staff outside the operating theater is a real problem for radiation protection. The French standard NFC 15-160 require that: (1) access to any room containing an X-ray emitting device must be controlled by a light signage so that it cannot be inadvertently crossed, and (2) setting up an emergency button to stop the X-ray emission. This study presents a system that we developed to meet these requirements and the results of its clinical test. Materials and methods: The system is composed of two communicating boxes: o The "DetectBox" is to be installed inside the operating theater. It identifies the various operation states of the C-arm by analyzing its power supply signal. The DetectBox communicates (in wireless mode) with the second box (AlertBox). o The "AlertBox" can operate in socket or battery mode and is to be installed outside the operating theater. It detects and reports the state of the C-arm by emitting a real time light signal. This latter can have three different colors: red when the C-arm is emitting X-rays, orange when it is powered on but does not emit X-rays, and green when it is powered off. The two boxes communicate on a radiofrequency link exclusively carried out in the ‘Industrial, Scientific and Medical (ISM)’ frequency bands and allows the coexistence of several on-site warning systems without communication conflicts (interference). Taking into account the complexity of performing electrical works in the operating theater (for reasons of hygiene and continuity of medical care), this system (having a size <10 cm²) works in complete safety without any intrusion in the mobile C-arm and does not require specific electrical installation work. The system is equipped with emergency button that stops X-ray emission. The system has been clinically tested. Results: The clinical test of the system shows that: it detects X-rays having both high and low energy (50 – 150 kVp), high and low photon flow (0.5 – 200 mA: even when emitted for a very short time (<1 ms)), Probability of false detection < 10-5, it operates under all acquisition modes (continuous, pulsed, fluoroscopy mode, image mode, subtraction and movie mode), it is compatible with all C-arm models and brands. We have also tested the communication between the two boxes (DetectBox and AlertBox) in several conditions: (1) Unleaded room, (2) leaded room, and (3) rooms with particular configuration (sas, great distances, concrete walls, 3 mm of lead). The result of these last tests was positive. Conclusion: This system is a reliable tool to alert the staff present outside the operating room for X-ray emission and insure their radiation protection.

Keywords: Clinical test, Inadvertent staff exposition, Light signage, Operating theater

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Authors: Ipek Goktepe, Israa Elnemr, Hammad Asim, Hao Feng, Mosbah Kushad, Hee Park, Sheikha Alzeyara, Mohammad Alhajri

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Food safety management in Qatar is under the shared oversight of multiple agencies in two government ministries (Ministry of Public Health and Ministry of Municipality and Environment). Despite the increasing number and diversity of the food service establishments, no systematic food surveillance system is in place in the country, which creates a gap in terms of determining the food safety attitudes and practices applied in the food service operations. Therefore, this study seeks to partially address this gap through determination of food safety knowledge among food handlers, specifically with respect to food preparation and handling practices, and sanitation methods applied in food service providers (FSPs) and a major market in Doha, Qatar. The study covered a sample of 53 FSPs randomly selected out of 200 FSPs. Face-to-face interviews with managers at participating FSPs were conducted using a 40-questions survey. Additionally, 120 produce handlers who are in direct contact with fresh produce at the major produce market in Doha were surveyed using a questionnaire containing 21 questions. A written informed consent was obtained from each survey participant. The survey data were analyzed using the chi-square test and correlation test. The significance was evaluated at p ˂ 0.05. The results from the FSPs surveys indicated that the average age of FSPs was 11 years, with the oldest and newest being established in 1982 and 2015, respectively. Most managers (66%) had college degree and 68% of them were trained on the food safety management system known as HACCP. These surveys revealed that FSP managers’ training and education level were highly correlated with the probability of their employees receiving food safety training while managers with lower education level had no formal training on food safety for themselves nor for their employees. Casual sit-in and fine dine-in restaurants consistently kept records (100%), followed by fast food (36%), and catering establishments (14%). The produce handlers’ survey results showed that none of the workers had any training on safe produce handling practices. The majority of the workers were in the age range of 31-40 years (37%) and only 38% of them had high-school degree. Over 64% of produce handlers claimed to wash their hands 4-5 times per day but field observations pointed limited handwashing as there was soap in the settings. This observation suggests potential food safety risks since a significant correlation (p ˂ 0.01) between the educational level and the hand-washing practices was determined. This assessment on food safety culture through determination of food and produce handlers' level of knowledge and practices, the first of its kind in Qatar, demonstrated that training and education are important factors which directly impact the food safety culture in FSPs and produce markets. These findings should help in identifying the need for on-site training of food handlers for effective food safety practices in food establishments in Qatar.

Keywords: food safety, food safety culture, food service providers, food handlers

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Authors: Jérôme de Reffye, Marc Antoni

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Following the development of the ERTMS system, we think it is interesting to develop another software-based track circuit system which would fit secondary railway lines with an easy-to-work implementation and a low sensitivity to rail-wheel impedance variations. We called this track circuit 'Track Railway by Automatic Circuits.' To be internationally implemented, this system must not have any mechanical component and must be compatible with existing track circuit systems. For example, the system is independent from the French 'Joints Isolants Collés' that isolate track sections from one another, and it is equally independent from component used in Germany called 'Counting Axles,' in French 'compteur d’essieux.' This track circuit is fully interoperable. Such universality is obtained by replacing the train detection mechanical system with a space-time filtering of train position. The various track sections are defined by the frequency of a continuous signal. The set of frequencies related to the track sections is a set of orthogonal functions in a Hilbert Space. Thus the failure probability of track sections separation is precisely calculated on the basis of signal-to-noise ratio. SNR is a function of the level of traction current conducted by rails. This is the reason why we developed a very powerful algorithm to reject noise and jamming to obtain an SNR compatible with the precision required for the track circuit and SIL 4 level. The SIL 4 level is thus reachable by an adjustment of the set of orthogonal functions. Our major contributions to railway engineering signalling science are i) Train space localization is precisely defined by a calibration system. The operation bypasses the GSM-R radio system of the ERTMS system. Moreover, the track circuit is naturally protected against radio-type jammers. After the calibration operation, the track circuit is autonomous. ii) A mathematical topology adapted to train space localization by following the train through a linear time filtering of the received signal. Track sections are numerically defined and can be modified with a software update. The system was numerically simulated, and results were beyond our expectations. We achieved a precision of one meter. Rail-ground and rail-wheel impedance sensitivity analysis gave excellent results. Results are now complete and ready to be published. This work was initialised as a research project of the French Railways developed by the Pi-Ramses Company under SNCF contract and required five years to obtain the results. This track circuit is already at Level 3 of the ERTMS system, and it will be much cheaper to implement and to work. The traffic regulation is based on variable length track sections. As the traffic growths, the maximum speed is reduced, and the track section lengths are decreasing. It is possible if the elementary track section is correctly defined for the minimum speed and if every track section is able to emit with variable frequencies.

Keywords: track section, track circuits, space-time crossing, adaptive track section, automatic railway signalling

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Authors: O. Sauperl, L. Fras Zemljic

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The textile industry is gaining increasing importance in the field of medical materials. Therefore, presented research is focused on textile materials for external (out-of-body) use. Such materials could be various hygienic textile products (diapers, tampons, sanitary napkins, incontinence products, etc.), protective textiles and various hospital linens (surgical covers, masks, gowns, cloths, bed linens, etc.) wound pillows, bandages, orthopedic socks, etc. Function of tampons and sanitary napkins is not only to provide protection during the menstrual cycle, but their function can be also to take care of physiological or pathological vaginal discharge. In general, women's intimate areas are against infection protected by a low pH value of the vaginal flora. High pH inhibits the development of harmful microorganisms, as it is difficult to be reproduced in an acidic environment. The normal vaginal flora in healthy women is highly colonized by lactobacilli. The lactic acid produced by these organisms maintains the constant acidity of the vagina. If the balance of natural protection breaks, infections can occur. In the market, there exist probiotic tampons as a medical product supplying the vagina with beneficial probiotic lactobacilli. But, many users have concerns about the use of tampons due to the possible dry-out of the vagina as well as the possible toxic shock syndrome, which is the reason that they use mainly sanitary napkins during the menstrual cycle. Functionalization of sanitary napkins with probiotics is, therefore, interesting in regard to maintain a healthy vaginal flora and to offer to users added value of the sanitary napkins in the sense of health- and environmentally-friendly products. For this reason, the presented research is oriented in functionalization of the sanitary napkins with the probiotic paste in order to activate the lactic acid bacteria presented in the core of the functionalized sanitary napkin at the time of the contact with the menstrual fluid. In this way, lactobacilli could penetrate into vagina and by maintaining healthy vaginal flora to reduce the risk of vaginal disorders. In regard to the targeted research problem, the influence of probiotic paste applied onto cotton hygienic napkins on selected properties was studied. The aim of the research was to determine whether the sanitary napkins with the applied probiotic paste may assure suitable vaginal pH to maintain a healthy vaginal flora during the use of this product. Together with this, sorption properties of probiotic functionalized sanitary napkins were evaluated and compared to the untreated one. The research itself was carried out on the basis of tracking and controlling the input parameters, currently defined by Slovenian producer (Tosama d.o.o.) as the most important. Successful functionalization of sanitary pads with the probiotic paste was confirmed by ATR-FTIR spectroscopy. Results of the methods used within the presented research show that the absorption of the pads treated with probiotic paste deteriorates compared to non-treated ones. The coating shows a 6-month stability. Functionalization of sanitary pads with probiotic paste is believed to have a commercial potential for lowering the probability of infection during the menstrual cycle.

Keywords: functionalization, probiotic paste, sanitary pads, textile materials

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Authors: Cinthia G. P. Calou, Franz J. Antezana, Ana I. O. Nicolau, Eveliny S. Martins, Paula R. A. L. Soares, Glauberto S. Quirino, Dayanne R. Oliveira, Priscila S. Aquino, Régia C. M. B. Castro, Ana K. B. Pinheiro

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Introduction: As an integral part of the health-disease process, gestation is a period in which the social insertion of women can influence, in a positive or negative way, the course of the pregnancy-puerperal cycle. Thus, evaluating the quality of life of this population can redirect the implementation of innovative practices in the quest to make them more effective and real for the promotion of a more humanized care. This study explores the associations between the obstetric factors with affected areas of health-related quality of life of pregnant women with habitual risk. Methods: This is a cross-sectional, quantitative study conducted in three public facilities and a private service that provides prenatal care in the city of Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil. The sample consisted of 261 pregnant women who underwent low-risk prenatal care and were interviewed from September to November 2014. The collection instruments were a questionnaire containing socio-demographic and obstetric variables, in addition to the Brazilian version of the Mother scale Generated Index (MGI) characterized by being a specific and objective instrument, consisting of a single sheet and subdivided into three stages. It allows identifying the areas of life of the pregnant woman that are most affected, which could go unnoticed by the pre-formulated measurement instruments. The obstetric data, as well as the data concerning the application of the MGI scale, were compiled and analyzed through the statistical program Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), version 20.0. After the compilation, a descriptive analysis was carried out. Then, associations were made between some variables. The tests applied were the Pearson Chi-Square and the Fisher's exact test. The odds ratio was also calculated. These associations were considered statistically significant when the p (probability) value was less than or equal to a level of 5% (α = 0.05) in the tests performed. Results: The variables that negatively reflected the quality of life of the pregnant women and presented a significant association with the polaciuria were: gestational age (p = 0.022) and parity (p = 0.048). Episodes of nausea and vomiting also showed significant with gestational age correlation (p = 0.0001). Evaluating the crossing of stress, we observed a significant association with parity (p = 0.0001). In turn, emotional lability revealed dependence on the variable type of delivery (p = 0.009). Conclusion: The health professionals involved in the assistance to the pregnant woman can understand how the process of gestation is experienced, considering all its peculiar transformations; to meet their individual needs, stimulating their autonomy and their power of choice, envisaging the achievement of a better quality of life related to health in the perspective of health promotion.

Keywords: health-related quality of life, obstetric nursing, pregnant women, prenatal care

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Authors: Sanari Chalin Moriri, Kwabena Kingsley Ayisi, Alina Mofokeng

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Dryland smallholder farmers in South Africa are vulnerable to all kinds of risks, and it negatively affects crop productivity and profit. Pigeonpea is a leguminous and multipurpose crop that provides food, fodder, and wood for smallholder farmers. The majority of these farmers are still growing pigeonpea from traditional unimproved seeds, which comprise a mixture of genotypes. The objectives of the study were to identify the key risk factors that affect pigeonpea productivity and to develop management strategies on how to alleviate the risk factors in pigeonpea production. The study was conducted in two provinces (Limpopo and Mpumalanga) of South Africa in six municipalities during the 2020/2021 growing seasons. The non-probability sampling method using purposive and snowball sampling techniques were used to collect data from the farmers through a structured questionnaire. A total of 114 pigeonpea producers were interviewed individually using a questionnaire. Key stakeholders in each municipality were also identified, invited, and interviewed to verify the information given by farmers. Data collected were subjected to SPSS statistical software 25 version. The findings of the study were that majority of farmers affected by risk factors were women, subsistence, and old farmers resulted in low food production. Drought, unavailability of improved pigeonpea seeds for planting, access to information, and processing equipment were found to be the main risk factors contributing to low crop productivity in farmer’s fields. Above 80% of farmers lack knowledge on the improvement of the crop and also on the processing techniques to secure high prices during the crop off-season. Market availability, pricing, and incidence of pests and diseases were found to be minor risk factors which were triggered by the major risk factors. The minor risk factors can be corrected only if the major risk factors are first given the necessary attention. About 10% of the farmers found to use the crop as a mulch to reduce soil temperatures and to improve soil fertility. The study revealed that most of the farmers were unaware of its utilisation as fodder, much, medicinal, nitrogen fixation, and many more. The risk of frequent drought in dry areas of South Africa where farmers solely depend on rainfall poses a serious threat to crop productivity. The majority of these risk factors are caused by climate change due to unrealistic, low rainfall with extreme temperatures poses a threat to food security, water, and the environment. The use of drought-tolerant, multipurpose legume crops such as pigeonpea, access to new information, provision of processing equipment, and support from all stakeholders will help in addressing food security for smallholder farmers. Policies should be revisited to address the prevailing risk factors faced by farmers and involve them in addressing the risk factors. Awareness should be prioritized in promoting the crop to improve its production and commercialization in the dryland farming system of South Africa.

Keywords: management strategies, pigeonpea, risk factors, smallholder farmers

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Nada Al-Qallaf, Aisha Al-Barood, Djamel Lekmine, Srinivasan Vedhapuri

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Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) under the supervision of Kuwait National Focal Point (KNFP) is planning to remediate 26 million (M) m3 of oil-contaminated soil in oil fields of Kuwait as a direct and indirect fallout of the Gulf War during 1990-1991. This project is funded by the United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC) under the Kuwait Environmental Remediation Program (KERP). Oil-contamination of the soil occurred due to the destruction of the oil wells and spilled crude oil across the land surface and created ‘oil lakes’ in low lying land. Aerial fall-out from oil spray and combustion products from oil fires combined with the sand and gravel on the ground surface to form a layer of hardened ‘Tarcrete’. The unique fresh groundwater lenses present in the Raudhatain and Sabriya subsurface areas had been impacted by the discharge and/or spills of dissolved petroleum constituents. These fresh groundwater aquifers were used for drinking water purposes until 1990, prior to invasion. This has significantly damages altered the landscape, ecology and habitat of the flora and fauna and in Kuwait Desert. Under KERP, KOC is fully responsible for the planning and execution of the remediation and restoration projects in KOC oil fields. After the initial recommendation of UNCC to construct engineered landfills for containment and disposal of heavily contaminated soils, two landfills were constructed, one in North Kuwait and another in South East Kuwait of capacity 1.7 million m3 and 0.5 million m3 respectively. KOC further developed the Total Remediation Strategy in conjunction with KNFP and has obtained UNCC approval. The TRS comprises of elements such as Risk Based Approach (RBA), Bioremediation of low Contaminated Soil levels, Remediation Treatment Technologies, Sludge Disposal via Beneficial Recycling or Re-use and Engineered landfills for Containment of untreatable materials. Risk Based Assessment as a key component to avoid any unnecessary remedial works, where it can be demonstrated that human health and the environment are sufficiently protected in the absence of active remediation. This study demonstrates on the risks of tarcrete materials spread over areas 20 Km2 on the fresh Ground water lenses/catchment located beneath the Sabriyah and Raudhatain oil fields in North Kuwait. KOC’s primary objective is to provide justification of using RBA, to support a case with the Kuwait regulators to leave the tarcrete material in place, rather than seek to undertake large-scale removal and remediation. The large-scale coverage of the tarcrete in the oil fields and perception that the residual contamination associated with this source is present in an environmentally sensitive area essentially in ground water resource. As part of this assessment, conceptual site model (CSM) and complete risk-based and fate and transport modelling was carried out which includes derivation of site-specific assessment criteria (SSAC) and quantification of risk to identified waters resource receptors posed by tarcrete impacted areas. The outcome of this assessment was determined that the residual tarcrete deposits across the site area shall not create risks to fresh groundwater resources and the remedial action to remove and remediate the surficial tarcrete deposits is not warranted.

Keywords: conceptual site model, fresh groundwater, oil-contaminated soil, tarcrete, risk based assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Álvaro Turriago-Hoyos

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Most research tends to see innovation as an explanatory factor in achieving high levels of competitiveness and productivity. More recent studies have begun to analyze the determinants of innovation in the services sector as opposed to the much-discussed industrial sector of a country’s economy. This research paper focuses on the services sector in Colombia, one of Latin America’s fastest growing and biggest economies. Over the past decade, much of Colombia’s economic expansion has relied on commodity exports (mainly oil and coffee) whilst the industrial sector has performed relatively poorly. Such developments highlight the potential of the innovative role played by the services sector of the Colombian economy and its future growth prospects. This research paper analyzes the relationship between inputs, which at the same time are internal sources of innovation (such as R&D activities), and external sources that are improved by technology acquisition. The outputs are basically the four kinds of innovation that the OECD Oslo Manual recognizes: product, process, marketing and organizational innovations. The instrument used to measure this input-output relationship is based on Knowledge Production Function approaches. We run Probit models in order to identify the existing relationships between the above inputs and outputs, but also to identify spill-overs derived from interactions of the components of the value chain of the services firms analyzed: customers, suppliers, competitors, and complementary firms. Data are obtained from the Colombian National Administrative Department of Statistics for the period 2008 to 2013 published in the II and III Colombian National Innovation Survey. A short summary of the results obtained lead to conclude that firm size and a firm’s level of technological development turn out to be important discriminating factors for the description of the innovative process at the firm level. The model’s outcomes show a positive impact on the probability of introducing any kind of innovation both on R&D and Technology Acquisition investment. Also, cooperation agreements with customers, research institutes, competitors, and the suppliers are significant. Belonging to a particular industrial group is an important determinant but only to product and organizational innovation. It is possible to establish that Health Services, Education, Computer, Wholesale trade, and Financial Intermediation are the ISIC sectors, which report the highest number of frequencies of the considered set of firms. Those five sectors of the sixteen considered, in all cases, explained more than half of the total of all kinds of innovations. Product Innovation, which is followed by Marketing Innovation, gets the highest results. Displaying the same set of firms distinguishing by size, and belonging to high and low tech services sector shows that the larger the firms the larger a number of innovations, but also that always high-tech firms show a better innovation performance.

Keywords: Colombia, determinants of innovation, innovation, services sector

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Seung Ah Lee, Sunghyun Cho, Kyong Mee Chung

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Rapid population aging became a worldwide demographic phenomenon due to rising life expectancy and declining fertility rates. Considering the current increasing rate of population aging, it is assumed that Korean society enters into a ‘super-aged’ society in 10 years, in which people aged 65 years or older account for more than 20% of entire population. In line with this trend, ICT services aimed to help elderly people to improve the quality of life have been suggested. However, existing ICT services mainly focus on supporting health or nursing care and are somewhat limited to meet a variety of specialized needs and challenges of this population. It is pointed out that the majority of services have been driven by technology-push policies. Given that the usage of ICT services greatly vary on individuals’ socio-economic status (SES), physical and psychosocial needs, this study systematically categorized elderly population into sub-groups and identified their needs and characteristics related to ICT usage in detail. First, three assessment criteria (demographic variables including SES, cognitive functioning level, and emotional functioning level) were identified based on previous literature, experts’ opinions, and focus group interview. Second, survey questions for needs assessment were developed based on the criteria and administered to 600 respondents from a national probability sample. The questionnaire consisted of 67 items concerning demographic information, experience on ICT services and information technology (IT) devices, quality of life and cognitive functioning, etc. As the result of survey, age (60s, 70s, 80s), education level (college graduates or more, middle and high school, less than primary school) and cognitive functioning level (above the cut-off, below the cut-off) were considered the most relevant factors for categorization and 18 sub-groups were identified. Finally, 18 sub-groups were clustered into 3 groups according to following similarities; computer usage rate, difficulties in using ICT, and familiarity with current or previous job. Group 1 (‘active users’) included those who with high cognitive function and educational level in their 60s and 70s. They showed favorable and familiar attitudes toward ICT services and used the services for ‘joyful life’, ‘intelligent living’ and ‘relationship management’. Group 2 (‘potential users’), ranged from age of 60s to 80s with high level of cognitive function and mostly middle to high school graduates, reported some difficulties in using ICT and their expectations were lower than in group 1 despite they were similar to group 1 in areas of needs. Group 3 (‘limited users’) consisted of people with the lowest education level or cognitive function, and 90% of group reported difficulties in using ICT. However, group 3 did not differ from group 2 regarding the level of expectation for ICT services and their main purpose of using ICT was ‘safe living’. This study developed a systematic needs assessment tool and identified three sub-groups of elderly ICT users based on multi-criteria. It is implied that current cognitive function plays an important role in using ICT and determining needs among the elderly population. Implications and limitations were further discussed.

Keywords: elderly population, ICT, needs assessment, population aging

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Andreea Campu, Ilinica Muresan, Simona Cainap, Simion Astilean, Monica Focsan

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Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is the most severe cardiovascular disease, which has threatened human lives for decades, thus a continuous interest is directed towards the detection of cardiac biomarkers such as cardiac troponin I (cTnI) in order to predict risk and, implicitly, fulfill the early diagnosis requirements in AMI settings. Microfluidics is a major technology involved in the development of efficient sensing devices with real-time fast responses and on-site applicability. Microfluidic devices have gathered a lot of attention recently due to their advantageous features such as high sensitivity and specificity, miniaturization and portability, ease-of-use, low-cost, facile fabrication, and reduced sample manipulation. The integration of gold nanoparticles into the structure of microfluidic sensors has led to the development of highly effective detection systems, considering the unique properties of the metallic nanostructures, specifically the Localized Surface Plasmon Resonance (LSPR), which makes them highly sensitive to their microenvironment. In this scientific context, herein, we propose the implementation of a novel detection device, which successfully combines the efficiency of gold bipyramids (AuBPs) as signal transducers and thermal generators with the sample-driven advantages of the microfluidic channels into a miniaturized, portable, low-cost, specific, and sensitive test for the dual LSPR-thermographic cTnI detection. Specifically, AuBPs with longitudinal LSPR response at 830 nm were chemically synthesized using the seed-mediated growth approach and characterized in terms of optical and morphological properties. Further, the colloidal AuBPs were deposited onto pre-treated silanized glass substrates thus, a uniform nanoparticle coverage of the substrate was obtained and confirmed by extinction measurements showing a 43 nm blue-shift of the LSPR response as a consequence of the refractive index change. The as-obtained plasmonic substrate was then integrated into a microfluidic “Y”-shaped polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) channel, fabricated using a Laser Cutter system. Both plasmonic and microfluidic elements were plasma treated in order to achieve a permanent bond. The as-developed microfluidic plasmonic chip was further coupled to an automated syringe pump system. The proposed biosensing protocol implicates the successive injection inside the microfluidic channel as follows: p-aminothiophenol and glutaraldehyde, to achieve a covalent bond between the metallic surface and cTnI antibody, anti-cTnI, as a recognition element, and target cTnI biomarker. The successful functionalization and capture of cTnI was monitored by LSPR detection thus, after each step, a red-shift of the optical response was recorded. Furthermore, as an innovative detection technique, thermal determinations were made after each injection by exposing the microfluidic plasmonic chip to 785 nm laser excitation, considering that the AuBPs exhibit high light-to-heat conversion performances. By the analysis of the thermographic images, thermal curves were obtained, showing a decrease in the thermal efficiency after the anti-cTnI-cTnI reaction was realized. Thus, we developed a microfluidic plasmonic chip able to operate as both LSPR and thermal sensor for the detection of the cardiac troponin I biomarker, leading thus to the progress of diagnostic devices.

Keywords: gold nanobipyramids, microfluidic device, localized surface plasmon resonance detection, thermographic detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Chandra Shekhar Majumder, Md. Shamsul Haque, Khondaker Anower Hossain, Md. Rafiqul Islam

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Introduction: Ocular helminths are parasites that infect the eye or its adnexa. They can be either motile worms or sessile worms that form cysts. These parasites require two hosts for their life cycle, a definite host (usually a human) and an intermediate host (usually an insect). While there have been reports of ocular helminths infecting various structures of the eye, including the anterior chamber and subconjunctival space, there is no previous record of such a case involving the lens. Research Aim: The aim of this case report is to present a rare case of ocular helminth infection in the lens and to contribute to the understanding of this unusual site of infection. Methodology: This study is a case report, presenting the details and findings of an 80-year-old retired policeman who presented with severe pain, redness, and vision loss in the left eye. The patient had a history of diabetes mellitus and hypertension. The examination revealed the presence of a thread-like helminth in the lens. The patient underwent treatment and follow-up, and the helminth specimen was sent for identification to the department of Parasitology. Case report: An 80-year-old retired policeman attended the OPD, Faridpur Medical College Hospital with the complaints of severe pain, redness and gross dimness of vision of the left eye for 5 days. He had a history of diabetes mellitus and hypertension for 3 years. On examination, L/E visual acuity was PL only, moderate ciliary congestion, KP 2+, cells 2+ and posterior synechia from 5 to 7 O’clock position was found. Lens was opaque. A thread like helminth was found under the anterior of the lens. The worm was moving and changing its position during examination. On examination of R/E, visual acuity was 6/36 unaided, 6/18 with pinhole. There was lental opacity. Slit-lamp and fundus examination were within normal limit. Patient was admitted in Faridpur Medical College Hospital. Diabetes mellitus was controlled with insulin. ICCE with PI was done on the same day of admission under depomedrol coverage. The helminth was recovered from the lens. It was thread like, about 5 to 6 mm in length, 1 mm in width and pinkish in colour. The patient followed up after 7 days, VA was HM, mild ciliary congestion, few KPs and cells were present. Media was hazy due to vitreous opacity. The worm was sent to the department of Parasitology, NIPSOM, Dhaka for identification. Findings: The findings of this case report highlight the presence of a helminth in the lens, which has not been previously reported. The helminth was successfully removed from the lens, but the patient experienced complications such as anterior uveitis and vitreous opacity. The exact mechanism by which the helminth enters the lens remains unclear. Theoretical Importance: This case report contributes to the existing literature on ocular helminth infections by reporting a unique case involving the lens. It highlights the need for further research to understand the pathogenesis and mechanism of entry of helminths in the lens. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The data for this case report were collected through clinical examination and medical records of the patient. The findings were described and presented in a descriptive manner. No statistical analysis was conducted. Question Addressed: This case report addresses the question of whether ocular helminth infections can occur in the lens, which has not been previously reported. Conclusion: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first reported case of ocular helminth infection in the lens. The presence of the helminth in the lens raises interesting questions regarding its pathogenesis and entry mechanism. Further study and research are needed to explore these aspects. Ophthalmologists and parasitologists should be aware of the possibility of ocular helminth infections in unusual sites like the lens.

Keywords: ocular, helminth, unsual site, lens

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Authors: Ayesha M. Facey

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The evaluation sought to determine the factors associated with the high failure rate among students taking a first-year introductory statistics course. By utilizing Tyler’s Objective Based Model, the main objectives were: to assess the effectiveness of the lecturer’s teaching strategies; to determine the proportion of students who attends lectures and tutorials frequently and to determine the impact of infrequent attendance on performance; to determine how the assigned activities assisted in students understanding of the course content; to ascertain the possible issues being faced by students in understanding the course material and obtain possible solutions to the challenges and to determine whether the learning outcomes have been achieved based on an assessment of the second in-course examination. A quantitative survey research strategy was employed and the study population was students enrolled in semester one of the academic year 2015/2016. A convenience sampling approach was employed resulting in a sample of 98 students. Primary data was collected using self-administered questionnaires over a one-week period. Secondary data was obtained from the results of the second in-course examination. Data were entered and analyzed in SPSS version 22 and both univariate and bivariate analyses were conducted on the information obtained from the questionnaires. Univariate analyses provided description of the sample through means, standard deviations and percentages while bivariate analyses were done using Spearman’s Rho correlation coefficient and Chi-square analyses. For secondary data, an item analysis was performed to obtain the reliability of the examination questions, difficulty index and discriminant index. The examination results also provided information on the weak areas of the students and highlighted the learning outcomes that were not achieved. Findings revealed that students were more likely to participate in lectures than tutorials and that attendance was high for both lectures and tutorials. There was a significant relationship between participation in lectures and performance on examination. However, a high proportion of students has been absent from three or more tutorials as well as lectures. A higher proportion of students indicated that they completed the assignments obtained from the lectures sometimes while they rarely completed tutorial worksheets. Students who were more likely to complete their assignments were significantly more likely to perform well on their examination. Additionally, students faced a number of challenges in understanding the course content and the topics of probability, binomial distribution and normal distribution were the most challenging. The item analysis also highlighted these topics as problem areas. Problems doing mathematics and application and analyses were their major challenges faced by students and most students indicated that some of the challenges could be alleviated if additional examples were worked in lectures and they were given more time to solve questions. Analysis of the examination results showed that a number of learning outcomes were not achieved for a number of topics. Based on the findings recommendations were made that suggested adjustments to grade allocations, delivery of lectures and methods of assessment.

Keywords: evaluation, item analysis, Tyler’s objective based model, university statistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: Bangkit Adhi Nugraha, Bambang Suripto

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On September 2016 Bank Indonesia (BI) release regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016 that permit bank clients for using the FX option call spread USD/IDR. Basically, this product is a combination between clients buy FX call option (pay premium) and sell FX call option (receive premium) to protect against currency depreciation while also capping the potential upside with cheap premium cost. BI classifies this product as a structured product. The structured product is combination at least two financial instruments, either derivative or non-derivative instruments. The call spread is the first structured product against IDR permitted by BI since 2009 as response the demand increase from Indonesia firms on FX hedging through derivative for protecting market risk their foreign currency asset or liability. The composition of hedging products on Indonesian FX market increase from 35% on 2015 to 40% on 2016, the majority on swap product (FX forward, FX swap, cross currency swap). Swap is formulated by interest rate difference of the two currency pairs. The cost of swap product is 7% for USD/IDR with one year USD/IDR volatility 13%. That cost level makes swap products seem expensive for hedging buyers. Because call spread cost (around 1.5-3%) cheaper than swap, the most Indonesian firms are using NDF FX call spread USD/IDR on offshore with outstanding amount around 10 billion USD. The cheaper cost of call spread is the main advantage for hedging buyers. The problem arises because BI regulation requires the call spread buyer doing the dynamic hedging. That means, if call spread buyer choose strike price 1 and strike price 2 and volatility USD/IDR exchange rate surpass strike price 2, then the call spread buyer must buy another call spread with strike price 1’ (strike price 1’ = strike price 2) and strike price 2’ (strike price 2’ > strike price 1‘). It could make the premium cost of call spread doubled or even more and dismiss the purpose of hedging buyer to find the cheapest hedging cost. It is very crucial for the buyer to choose best optimum strike price before entering into the transaction. To help hedging buyer find the optimum strike price and avoid expensive multiple premium cost, we observe ten years 2005-2015 historical data of USD/IDR volatility to be compared with the price movement of the call spread USD/IDR using Garman–Kohlhagen Model (as a common formula on FX option pricing). We use statistical tools to analysis data correlation, understand nature of call spread price movement over ten years, and determine factors affecting price movement. We select some range of strike price and tenor and calculate the probability of dynamic hedging to occur and how much it’s cost. We found USD/IDR currency pairs is too uncertain and make dynamic hedging riskier and more expensive. We validated this result using one year data and shown small RMS. The study result could be used to understand nature of FX call spread and determine optimum strike price for hedging plan.

Keywords: FX call spread USD/IDR, USD/IDR volatility statistical analysis, Garman–Kohlhagen Model on FX Option USD/IDR, Bank Indonesia Regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Francesca Marsili

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The reliability assessment of existing structures with probabilistic methods is becoming an increasingly important and frequent engineering task. However probabilistic reliability methods are based on an exhaustive knowledge of the stochastic modeling of the variables involved in the assessment; at the moment standards for the modeling of variables are absent, representing an obstacle to the dissemination of probabilistic methods. The framework according to probability distribution functions (PDFs) are established is represented by the Bayesian statistics, which uses Bayes Theorem: a prior PDF for the considered parameter is established based on information derived from the design stage and qualitative judgments based on the engineer past experience; then, the prior model is updated with the results of investigation carried out on the considered structure, such as material testing, determination of action and structural properties. The application of Bayesian statistics arises two different kind of problems: 1. The results of the updating depend on the engineer previous experience; 2. The updating of the prior PDF can be performed only if the structure has been tested, and quantitative data that can be statistically manipulated have been collected; performing tests is always an expensive and time consuming operation; furthermore, if the considered structure is an ancient building, destructive tests could compromise its cultural value and therefore should be avoided. In order to solve those problems, an interesting research path is represented by investigating Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques that can be useful for the automation of the modeling of variables and for the updating of material parameters without performing destructive tests. Among the others, one that raises particular attention in relation to the object of this study is constituted by Case-Based Reasoning (CBR). In this application, cases will be represented by existing buildings where material tests have already been carried out and an updated PDFs for the material mechanical parameters has been computed through a Bayesian analysis. Then each case will be composed by a qualitative description of the material under assessment and the posterior PDFs that describe its material properties. The problem that will be solved is the definition of PDFs for material parameters involved in the reliability assessment of the considered structure. A CBR system represent a good candi¬date in automating the modelling of variables because: 1. Engineers already draw an estimation of the material properties based on the experience collected during the assessment of similar structures, or based on similar cases collected in literature or in data-bases; 2. Material tests carried out on structure can be easily collected from laboratory database or from literature; 3. The system will provide the user of a reliable probabilistic description of the variables involved in the assessment that will also serve as a tool in support of the engineer’s qualitative judgments. Automated modeling of variables can help in spreading probabilistic reliability assessment of existing buildings in the common engineering practice, and target at the best intervention and further tests on the structure; CBR represents a technique which may help to achieve this.

Keywords: reliability assessment of existing buildings, Bayesian analysis, case-based reasoning, historical structures

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: Yadira Tejeda, Wynette Whitegoat, Dylan Jones, Brett Drake

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Background and Purpose: Hispanic and American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) families impacted by child protective services (CPS) continue to be a population in literature where little is known. There is less known about the fathers of these children and the safety or risk factors attributed to child maltreatment and case outcomes. However, it is known that involving fathers in children’s lives is needed for healthy development, academic achievement, and cognitive development. The few articles that have studied the impacts of engaging fathers in the CPS have found that children in general experience shorter times in foster care, are likely to reunify with their biological family, and overall have better case outcomes. The purpose of this study is to determine whether perpetrators identified as the mother, father, or both impact foster care placement in Hispanic and AI/AN families in CPS. Methods: Using NCANDS Child File data, the selected reports submitted in FY2017 with at least one substantiated allegation, i.e. those with perpetrator information. Reports were categorized into one of three categories: mom-perpetrator-only, father-perpetrator-only, and both. Reports that did not fall into any one of these three categorizations were omitted (<18%). Lastly, only reports where the mother and father self-identified as Hispanic or AI/AN were kept. Foster care placement was measured if any child in the report was placed within three months of the report date. Multilevel Logistic Regression models (random intercepts at the state and county) were used to model the relationship between report-parent type and foster care placement. Controls included Maltreatment types, number of children, any prior reports, and age of the youngest child. Results: For AI/AN reports, 64% were mom-perpetrator-only, 20% were father-perpetrator-only, and 16% both. Father-perpetrator-only reports had 60% lower odds of placement than mom-perpetrator-only, and both had 35% greater odds than mom-only. For Hispanics, 51% were mom-perpetrator-only, 30% father-perpetrator-only, and 19% both. Father-perpetrator-only reports had 74% lower odds than mom-perpetrator-only, and both had 55% greater odds than mom-perpetrator-only. Conclusion and Implications: Fatherhood research focused on prevention and intervention services should include Hispanic and AI/AN fathers to create culturally relevant and tailored services for both groups. By identifying differences in children’s CPS trajectories conditional on fathers’ involvement as a perpetrator, this analysis helps to inform where and how prevention efforts should be focused when considering variation in parental involvement for both populations. The findings indicate that the father’s involvement predicts substantial differences in the probability of future placement, with the direction depending on the mother’s joint involvement. Future research should investigate mediating pathways of these relationships while accounting for the unique experiences of AI/AN and Hispanic families. Each of these racial groups faces unique and differing challenges related to CPS, yet both groups have a shared understanding of the importance of fatherhood in the lives of children. Developing a better understanding of what is happening with Hispanic and AI/AN fathers as it relates to children's CPS experiences may result in new tools to reduce child maltreatment rates in these communities.

Keywords: child Abuse, child maltreatment, NDACAN, latino, native American

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Authors: Motaz Alsolaim

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Nowadays, the challenges of running a start-up can be very complex and are perhaps more difficult than at any other time in the past. Changes in technology, manufacturing innovation, and product development, combined with intense competition and market regulations are factors that have put pressure on classic ways of managing firms, thereby forcing change. As a result, the rate of closure, exit or discontinuation of start-ups and young businesses is very high. Despite the essential role of small firms in an economy, they still tend to face obstacles that exert a negative influence on their performance and rate of survival. In fact, it is not easy to determine with any certainty the reasons why small firms fail. For this reason, failure itself is not clearly defined, and its exact causes are hard to diagnose. In this current study, therefore, the barriers to survival will be covered more broadly, especially personal/entrepreneurial, enterprise and environmental factors with regard to various possible reasons for this failure, in order to determine the best solutions and make appropriate recommendations. Methodology: It could be argued that mixed methods might help to improve entrepreneurship research addressing challenges emphasis in previous studies and to achieve the triangulation. Calls for the combined use of quantitative and qualitative research were also made in the entrepreneurship field since entrepreneurship is a multi-faceted area of research. Therefore, explanatory sequential mixed method was used, using questionnaire online survey for entrepreneurs, followed by semi-structure interview. Collecting over 750 surveys and accepting 296 valid surveys, after that 13 interviews from government official seniors, businessmen successful entrepreneurs, and non-successful entrepreneurs. Findings: The first phase findings ( quantitative) shows the obstacles to survive; starting from the personal/ entrepreneurial factors such as; past work experience, lack of skills and interest, are positive factors, while; gender, age and education level of the owner are negative factors. Internal factors such as lack of marketing research and weak business planning are positive. The environmental factors; in economic perspectives; difficulty to find labors, in socio-cultural perspectives; Social restriction and traditions found to be a negative factors. In other hand, from the political perspective; cost of compliance and insufficient government plans found to be a positive factors for small business failure. From infrastructure perspective; lack of skills labor, high level of bureaucracy and lack of information are positive factors. Conclusion: This paper serves to enrich the understanding of failure factors in MENA region more precisely in SA, by minimizing the probability of failure in small-micro entrepreneurial start-up in SA, in the light of the Saudi government’s Vision 2030 plan.

Keywords: small business barriers, start-up business, entrepreneurship, Saudi Arabia

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Kai Warsoenke, Maik Mackiewicz

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To achieve a high quality of assembled car body structures, tolerancing is used to ensure a geometric accuracy of the single car body parts. There are two main techniques to determine the required tolerances. The first is tolerance analysis which describes the influence of individually tolerated input values on a required target value. Second is tolerance synthesis to determine the location of individual tolerances to achieve a target value. Both techniques are based on classical statistical methods, which assume certain probability distributions. To ensure competitiveness in both saturated and dynamic markets, production processes in vehicle manufacturing must be flexible and efficient. The dimensional specifications selected for the individual body components and the resulting assemblies have a major influence of the quality of the process. For example, in the manufacturing of forming tools as operating equipment or in the higher level of car body assembly. As part of the metrological process monitoring, manufactured individual parts and assemblies are recorded and the measurement results are stored in databases. They serve as information for the temporary adjustment of the production processes and are interpreted by experts in order to derive suitable adjustments measures. In the production of forming tools, this means that time-consuming and costly changes of the tool surface have to be made, while in the body shop, uncertainties that are difficult to control result in cost-intensive rework. The stored measurement results are not used to intelligently design tolerances in future processes or to support temporary decisions based on real-world geometric data. They offer potential to extend the tolerancing methods through data analysis and machine learning models. The purpose of this paper is to examine real-world measurement data from individual car body components, as well as assemblies, in order to develop an approach for using the data in short-term actions and future projects. For this reason, the measurement data will be analyzed descriptively in the first step in order to characterize their behavior and to determine possible correlations. In the following, a database is created that is suitable for developing machine learning models. The objective is to create an intelligent way to determine the position and number of measurement points as well as the local tolerance range. For this a number of different model types are compared and evaluated. The models with the best result are used to optimize equally distributed measuring points on unknown car body part geometries and to assign tolerance ranges to them. The current results of this investigation are still in progress. However, there are areas of the car body parts which behave more sensitively compared to the overall part and indicate that intelligent tolerancing is useful here in order to design and control preceding and succeeding processes more efficiently.

Keywords: automotive production, machine learning, process optimization, smart tolerancing

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Ramalan Musa Yerima

Abstract:

The paper titled “loading by number” explained a strategy developed recently by Zonal Commanding Officer of the Federal Road Safety Corps of Nigeria, covering Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara States of Northern Nigeria. The strategy is aimed at reducing competition, which will invariably leads to the reduction in speed, reduction in dangerous driving, reduction in crash rate, reduction in injuries, reduction in property damages and reduction in death through road traffic crashes (RTC). This research paper presents a study focused on enhancing the safety of commercial vehicles. The background of this study highlights the alarming statistics related to commercial vehicle crashes in Nigeria with focus on Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara States, which often result in significant damage to property, loss of lives, and economic costs. The significance and aims is to investigate and propose effective strategy to enhance the safety of commercial vehicles. The study recognizes the pressing need for heightened safety measures in commercial transportation, as it impacts not only the well-being of drivers and passengers but also the overall public safety. To achieve the objectives, an examination of accident data, including causes and contributing factors, was performed to identify critical areas for improvement. The major finding of the study reveals that when competition comes into play within the realm of commercial driving, it has detrimental effects on road safety and resource management. Commercial drivers are pushed to complete their routes quickly, deliver goods on time or they pushed themselves to arrive quickly for more passengers and new contracts. This competitive environment, fuelled by internal and external pressures such as tight deadlines, poverty and greed, often leads to sad endings. The study recommend that if a strategy called loading by number is integrated with other multiple safety measures such as driver training programs, regulatory enforcement, and infrastructure improvements, commercial vehicle safety can be significantly enhanced. "Loading by Number” approach is design to ensure that the sequence of departure of drivers from motor park ‘A’ would be communicated to motor park officials of park ‘B’, which would be considered sequentially when giving them returning passengers, regardless of the first to arrive. In conclusion, this paper underscores the significance of improving the safety measures of commercial vehicles, as they are often larger and heavier than other vehicles on the road. Whenever they are involved in accidents, the consequences can be more severe. Commercial vehicles are also frequently involved in long-haul or interstate transportation, which means they cover longer distances and spend more time on the road. This increased exposure to driving conditions increases the probability of accidents occurring. By implementing the suggested measures, policymakers, transportation authorities, and industry stakeholders can work collectively towards ensuring a safer commercial transportation system.

Keywords: commercial, safety, strategy, transportation

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Authors: Ramalan Musa Yerima

Abstract:

The paper titled “Loading by number” explained a strategy developed recently by the Zonal Commanding Officer of the Federal Road Safety Corps of Nigeria, covering Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara States of Northern Nigeria. The strategy is aimed at reducing competition, which will invariably lead to a reduction in speed, reduction in dangerous driving, reduction in crash rate, reduction in injuries, reduction in property damages and reduction in death through road traffic crashes (RTC). This research paper presents a study focused on enhancing the safety of commercial vehicles. The background of this study highlights the alarming statistics related to commercial vehicle crashes in Nigeria with a focus on Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara States, which often result in significant damage to property, loss of lives, and economic costs. The significance and aims is to investigate and propose an effective strategy to enhance the safety of commercial vehicles. The study recognizes the pressing need for heightened safety measures in commercial transportation, as it impacts not only the well-being of drivers and passengers but also the overall public safety. To achieve the objectives, an examination of accident data, including causes and contributing factors, was performed to identify critical areas for improvement. The major finding of the study reveals that when competition comes into play within the realm of commercial driving, it has detrimental effects on road safety and resource management. Commercial drivers are pushed to complete their routes quickly and deliver goods on time, or they push themselves to arrive quickly for more passengers and new contracts. This competitive environment, fuelled by internal and external pressures such as tight deadlines, poverty and greed, often leads to sad endings. The study recommends that if a strategy called loading by number is integrated with other multiple safety measures, such as driver training programs, regulatory enforcement, and infrastructure improvements, commercial vehicle safety can be significantly enhanced. "Loading by Number” approach is designed to ensure that the sequence of departure of drivers from the motor park ‘A’ would be communicated to motor park officials of park ‘B’, which would be considered sequentially when giving them returning passengers, regardless of the first to arrive. In conclusion, this paper underscores the significance of improving the safety measures of commercial vehicles, as they are often larger and heavier than other vehicles on the road. Whenever they are involved in accidents, the consequences can be more severe. Commercial vehicles are also frequently involved in long-haul or interstate transportation, which means they cover longer distances and spend more time on the road. This increased exposure to driving conditions increases the probability of accidents occurring. By implementing the suggested measures, policymakers, transportation authorities, and industry stakeholders can work collectively toward ensuring a safer commercial transportation system.

Keywords: commercial, safety, strategy, transport

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Authors: Katarzyna Drela, Miroslaw Wielgos, Mikolaj Wrobel, Barbara Lukomska

Abstract:

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have a great potential in regenerative medicine. Since the initial number of isolated MSCs is limited, in vitro propagation is often required to reach sufficient numbers of cells for therapeutic applications. During long-term culture MSCs may undergo genetic or epigenetic alterations that subsequently increase the probability of spontaneous malignant transformation. Thus, factors that influence genomic stability of MSCs following long-term expansions need to be clarified before cultured MSCs are employed for clinical application. The aim of our study was to investigate the potential for spontaneous transformation of human neonatal cord blood (HUCB-MSCs) and adult bone marrow (BM-MSCs) derived MSCs. Materials and Methods: HUCB-MSCs and BM-MSCs were isolated by standard Ficoll gradient centrifugations method. Isolated cells were initially plated in high density 106 cells per cm2. After 48 h medium were changed and non-adherent cells were removed. The malignant transformation of MSCs in vitro was evaluated by morphological changes, proliferation rate, ability to enter cell senescence, the telomerase expression and chromosomal abnormality. Proliferation of MSCs was analyzed with WST-1 reduction method and population doubling time (PDT) was calculated at different culture stages. Then the expression pattern of genes characteristic for mesenchymal or epithelial cells, as well as transcriptions factors were examined by RT-PCR. Concomitantly, immunocytochemical analysis of gene-related proteins was employed. Results: Our studies showed that MSCs from all bone marrow isolations ultimately entered senescence and did not undergo spontaneous malignant transformation. However, HUCB-MSCs from one of the 15 donors displayed an increased proliferation rate, failed to enter senescence, and exhibited an altered cell morphology. In this sample we observed two different cell phenotypes: one mesenchymal-like exhibited spindle shaped morphology and express specific mesenchymal surface markers (CD73, CD90, CD105, CD166) with low proliferation rate, and the second one with round, densely package epithelial-like cells with significantly increased proliferation rate. The PDT of epithelial-like populations was around 1day and 100% of cells were positive for proliferation marker Ki-67. Moreover, HUCB-MSCs showed a positive expression of human telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT), cMYC and exhibit increased number of CFU during the long-term culture in vitro. Furthermore, karyotype analysis revealed chromosomal abnormalities including duplications. Conclusions: Our studies demonstrate that HUCB-MSCs are susceptible to spontaneous malignant transformation during long-term culture. Spontaneous malignant transformation process following in vitro culture has enormous effect on the biosafety issues of future cell-based therapies and regenerative medicine regimens.

Keywords: mesenchymal stem cells, spontaneous, transformation, long-term culture

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Authors: Elena Collino, Dario A. Ronzio, Goffredo Decimi, Maurizio Riva

Abstract:

The rapid increase of renewable energy in Italy is led by wind and solar installations. The 2017 Italian energy strategy foresees a further development of these sustainable technologies, especially solar. This fact has resulted in new opportunities, challenges, and different problems to deal with. The growth of renewables allows to meet the European requirements regarding energy and environmental policy, but these types of sources are difficult to manage because they are intermittent and non-programmable. Operationally, these characteristics can lead to instability on the voltage profile and increasing uncertainty on energy reserve scheduling. The increasing renewable production must be considered with more and more attention especially by the Transmission System Operator (TSO). The TSO, in fact, every day provides orders on energy dispatch, once the market outcome has been determined, on extended areas, defined mainly on the basis of power transmission limitations. In Italy, six market zone are defined: Northern-Italy, Central-Northern Italy, Central-Southern Italy, Southern Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily. An accurate hourly renewable power forecasting for the day-ahead on these extended areas brings an improvement both in terms of dispatching and reserve management. In this study, an operational forecasting tool of the hourly solar output for the six Italian market zones is presented, and the performance is analysed. The implementation is carried out by means of a numerical weather prediction model, coupled with a statistical post-processing in order to derive the power forecast on the basis of the meteorological projection. The weather forecast is obtained from the limited area model RAMS on the Italian territory, initialized with IFS-ECMWF boundary conditions. The post-processing calculates the solar power production with the Analog Ensemble technique (AN). This statistical approach forecasts the production using a probability distribution of the measured production registered in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar to the forecasted one. The similarity is evaluated for the components of the solar radiation: global (GHI), diffuse (DIF) and direct normal (DNI) irradiation, together with the corresponding azimuth and zenith solar angles. These are, in fact, the main factors that affect the solar production. Considering that the AN performance is strictly related to the length and quality of the historical data a training period of more than one year has been used. The training set is made by historical Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts at 12 UTC for the GHI, DIF and DNI variables over the Italian territory together with corresponding hourly measured production for each of the six zones. The AN technique makes it possible to estimate the aggregate solar production in the area, without information about the technologic characteristics of the all solar parks present in each area. Besides, this information is often only partially available. Every day, the hourly solar power forecast for the six Italian market zones is made publicly available through a website.

Keywords: analog ensemble, electricity market, PV forecast, solar energy

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Authors: Chusit Apirumanekul, Chayanis Krittasudthacheewa, Ratchapat Ratanavaraha, Yanyong Inmuong

Abstract:

Rapid economic development in the Lower Mekong region is leading to changes in water quantity and quality. Changes in land- and forest-use, infrastructure development, increasing urbanization, migration patterns and climate risks are increasing demands for water, within various sectors, placing pressure on scarce water resources. Appropriate policies, strategies, and planning are urgently needed for improved water resource management. Over the last decade, Thailand has experienced more frequent and intense drought situations, affecting the level of water storage in reservoirs along with insufficient water allocation for agriculture during the dry season. The Huay Saibat River Basin, one of the well-known water-scarce areas in the northeastern region of Thailand, is experiencing ongoing water scarcity that affects both farming livelihoods and household consumption. Drought management in Thailand mainly focuses on emergency responses, rather than advance preparation and mitigation for long-term solutions. Despite many efforts from local authorities to mitigate the drought situation, there is yet no long-term comprehensive water management strategy, that integrates climate risks alongside other uncertainties. This paper assesses the application in the Huay Saibat River Basin, of the Robust Decision Support framework, to explore the feasibility of multiple drought management policies; including a shift in cropping season, in crop changes, in infrastructural operations and in the use of groundwater, under a wide range of uncertainties, including climate and land-use change. A series of consultative meetings were organized with relevant agencies and experts at the local level, to understand and explore plausible water resources strategies and identify thresholds to evaluate the performance of those strategies. Three different climate conditions were identified (dry, normal and wet). Other non-climatic factors influencing water allocation were further identified, including changes from sugarcane to rubber, delaying rice planting, increasing natural retention storage and using groundwater to supply demands for household consumption and small-scale gardening. Water allocation and water use in various sectors, such as in agriculture, domestic, industry and the environment, were estimated by utilising the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system, under various scenarios developed from the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors mentioned earlier. Water coverage (i.e. percentage of water demand being successfully supplied) was defined as a threshold for water resource strategy assessment. Thresholds for different sectors (agriculture, domestic, industry, and environment) were specified during multi-stakeholder engagements. Plausible water strategies (e.g. increasing natural retention storage, change of crop type and use of groundwater as an alternative source) were evaluated based on specified thresholds in 4 sectors (agriculture, domestic, industry, and environment) under 3 climate conditions. 'Business as usual' was evaluated for comparison. The strategies considered robust, emerge when performance is assessed as successful, under a wide range of uncertainties across the river basin. Without adopting any strategy, the water scarcity situation is likely to escalate in the future. Among the strategies identified, the use of groundwater as an alternative source was considered a potential option in combating water scarcity for the basin. Further studies are needed to explore the feasibility for groundwater use as a potential sustainable source.

Keywords: climate change, robust decision support, scenarios, water resources management

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Authors: Emir Sunguroglu, Merve Sunguroglu, Yesim Aliefendioglu, Harun Tanrivermis

Abstract:

Basic human needs range from physiological needs such as food, water and shelter to safety needs such as security, protection from natural disasters and even urban terrorism which are extant and not fulfilled even in urban areas where people live civilly in large communities. These basic needs when arose in urban life lead to a different kind of crime set defined as urban crimes. Urban crimes mostly result from differences between socioeconomic conditions in society. Income inequality increases tendency towards urban crimes. Especially in slum areas and suburbs, urban crimes not only threaten public security but they also affect deliverance of public services. It is highlighted that, construction of urban security against problems caused by urban crimes is not only achieved by involvement of urban security in security of the community but also comprises juridical development and staying above a level of legal standards concurrently. The idea of urban transformation emerged as interventions to demolishment and rebuilding of built environment to solve the unhealthy urban environment, inadequate infrastructure and socioeconomic problems came up during the industrialization process. Considering the probability of urbanization process driving citizens to commit crimes, The United Nations Commission on Human Security’s focus on this theme is conferred to be a proper approach. In this study, the analysis and change in security before, through and after urban transformation, which is one of the tools related to urbanization process, is strived to be discussed through the case of Sincan County Saraycik District. The study also aims to suggest improvements to current legislation on public safety, urban resilience, and urban transformation. In spite of Saraycik District residing in a developing County in Ankara, Turkey, from urbanization perspective as well as socioeconomic and demographic indicators the District exhibits a negative view throughout the County and the country. When related to the county, rates of intentional harm reports, burglary reports, the offense of libel and threat reports and narcotic crime reports are higher. The District is defined as ‘crime hotspot’. Interviews with residents of Saraycik claim that the greatest issue of the neighborhood is Public Order and Security (82.44 %). The District becomes prominent with negative aspects, especially with the presence of unlicensed constructions, occurrence of important social issues such as crime and insecurity and complicated lives of inhabitants from poverty and low standard conditions of living. Additionally, the social structure and demographic properties and crime and insecurity of the field have been addressed in this study. Consequently, it is claimed that urban crime rates were related to level of education, employment and household income, poverty trap, physical condition of housing and structuration, accessibility of public services, security, migration, safety in terms of disasters and emphasized that urban transformation is one of the most important tools in order to provide urban security.

Keywords: urban security, urban crimes, urban transformation, Saraycik district

Procedia PDF Downloads 276