Search results for: contract price

Authors: Kawsar Ahmed, Hong Wang

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The study's goal was to estimate the causal mediation impact of tobacco tax before and after price hikes among low-income male smokers, with a particular emphasis on the effect estimating pathways framework for continuous and dichotomous variables. From July to December 2021, a cross-sectional investigation of observational data (n=739) was collected from Bangladeshi low-wage smokers. The Quasi-Bayesian technique, binomial probit model, and sensitivity analysis using a simulation of the computational tools R mediation package had been used to estimate the effect. After a price rise for tobacco products, the average number of cigarettes or bidis sticks taken decreased from 6.7 to 4.56. Tobacco product rising prices have a direct effect on low-income people's decisions to quit or lessen their daily smoking habits of Average Causal Mediation Effect (ACME) [effect=2.31, 95 % confidence interval (C.I.) = (4.71-0.00), p<0.01], Average Direct Effect (ADE) [effect=8.6, 95 percent (C.I.) = (6.8-0.11), p<0.001], and overall significant effects (p<0.001). Tobacco smoking choice is described by the mediated proportion of income effect, which is 26.1% less of following price rise. The curve of ACME and ADE is based on observational figures of the coefficients of determination that asses the model of hypothesis as the substantial consequence after price rises in the sensitivity analysis. To reduce smoking product behaviors, price increases through taxation have a positive causal mediation with income that affects the decision to limit tobacco use and promote low-income men's healthcare policy.

Keywords: causal mediation analysis, directed acyclic graphs, tobacco price policy, sensitivity analysis, pathway estimation

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

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Authors: Lian Kösters, Wendy Smits, Raymond Montizaan

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The number of solo self-employed in the Netherlands has been increasing for years. The relative increase is among the largest in the EU. To explain this increase, most studies have focused on the supply side, workers who offer themselves as solo self-employed. The number of studies that focus on the demand side, the employer who hires the solo self-employed, is still scarce. Studies into employer behaviour conducted until now show that employers mainly choose self-employed workers when they have a temporary need for specialist knowledge, but also during projects or production peaks. These studies do not provide insight into the employers’ considerations for different contract types. In this study, interviews with employers were conducted, and available literature was consulted to provide an overview of the several factors employers use to compare different contract types. That input was used to set up a vignette study. This was carried out at the end of 2021 among almost 1000 business owners, HR managers, and business leaders of Dutch companies. Each respondent was given two sets of five fictitious candidates for two possible positions in their organization. They were asked to rank these candidates. The positions varied with regard to the type of tasks (core tasks or support tasks) and the time it took to train new people for the position. The respondents were asked additional questions about the positions, such as the required level of education, the duration, and the degree of predictability of tasks. The fictitious candidates varied, among other things, in the type of contract on which they would come to work for the organization. The results were analyzed using a rank-ordered logit analysis. This vignette setup makes it possible to see which factors are most important for employers when choosing to hire a solo self-employed person compared to other contracts. The results show that there are no indications that employers would want to hire solo self-employed workers en masse. They prefer regular employee contracts. The probability of being chosen with a solo self-employed contract over someone who comes to work as a temporary employee is 32 percent. This probability is even lower than for on-call and temporary agency workers. For a permanent contract, this probability is 46 percent. The results provide indications that employers consider knowledge and skills more important than the solo self-employed contract and that this can compensate. A solo self-employed candidate with 10 years of work experience has a 63 percent probability of being found attractive by an employer compared to a temporary employee without work experience. This suggests that employers are willing to give someone a less attractive contract for the employer if the worker so wishes. The results also show that the probability that a solo self-employed person is preferred over a candidate with a temporary employee contract is somewhat higher in business economics, administrative and technical professions. No significant results were found for factors where it was expected that solo self-employed workers are preferred more often, such as for unpredictable or temporary work.

Keywords: employer behaviour, rank-ordered logit analysis, solo self-employment, temporary contract, vignette study

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Authors: Abdulla D. Alblooshi

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The stock market is a representation of human behavior and psychology, such as fear, greed, and discipline. Those are manifested in the form of price movements during the trading sessions. Therefore, predicting the stock movement and prices is a challenging effort. However, those trading sessions produce a large amount of data that can be utilized to train an AI agent for the purpose of predicting the stock movement. Predicting the stock market price action will be advantageous. In this paper, the stock movement data of three DFM listed stocks are studied using historical price movements and technical indicators value and used to train an agent using KNN and SVM methods to predict the future price movement. MATLAB Toolbox and a simple script is written to process and classify the information and output the prediction. It will also compare the different learning methods and parameters s using metrics like RMSE, MAE, and R².

Keywords: KNN, ANN, style, SVM, stocks, technical indicators, RSI, MACD, moving averages, RMSE, MAE

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, turkey

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Authors: K. C. Iyer, Yogita Manan Bindal, Sumit Kumar Bakshi

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Disputes and litigation are becoming inherent to the construction industry in India, and despite construction being one of the major drivers of growth, there have not been many reforms in the government construction contracts. Many of the disputes arising from the government contracts, can be avoided by the proper drafting of contracts and their administration. This study aims to 1) identify the best practices in the construction contract as reviewed from the research papers and additional literature on contract management, 2) obtain perspectives from the industry experts on the implementation of these best practices with regards to likely challenges and relative benefits for implementing the best practices in construction contracts. The best practices for disputes arising due to delay events have been identified through extensive literature survey. The industry perspective is gathered by way of a questionnaire survey to understand the applicability of the identified best practices, the benefits that are likely to be obtained and the challenges that are likely to be faced in the implementation of these practices. The study concludes with the recommended best practices that can be implemented based on the perspectives obtained from the survey. The findings of the study can be used by the industry professionals while drafting construction contracts with a view to avoid disputes related to delay events.

Keywords: best practices, construction contract, delay, dispute avoidance

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Authors: Kaoutar Abbahaddou, Mohammed Salah Chiadmi

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The need to find a relevant way to predict the next-day price of a stock index is a real concern for many financial stakeholders and researchers. We have known across years the proliferation of several methods. Nevertheless, among all these methods, the most controversial one is a machine learning algorithm that claims to be reliable, namely neural networks. Thus, the purpose of this article is to study the prediction power of neural networks in the particular case of Islamic finance as it is an under-looked area. In this article, we will first briefly present a review of the literature regarding neural networks and Islamic finance. Next, we present the architecture and principles of artificial neural networks most commonly used in finance. Then, we will show its empirical application on two Islamic stock indexes. The accuracy rate would be used to measure the performance of the algorithm in predicting the right price the next day. As a result, we can conclude that artificial neural networks are a reliable method to predict the next-day price for Islamic indices as it is claimed for conventional ones.

Keywords: Islamic finance, stock price prediction, artificial neural networks, machine learning

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Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

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The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

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Authors: Merkouche Wassila, Marchand Alain, Renaud Stéphane

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Organizations are facing competitive pressures constraining them to modify their practices and change initial work conditions of employees, however, these modifications have to sustain initial quality of work and engagements toward the workforce. We focus on the importance of promises in the perspective of psychological contract. According to this perspective, employees perceiving a breach of the expected obligations from the employer may become unsatisfied at work and develop organizational withdrawal behaviors. These are negative counterproductive behaviours aiming to damage the organisation according to the principle of reciprocity and social exchange. We present an integrative model of the determinants and manifestations of organizational withdrawal (OW), a set of behaviors allowing the employee to leave his job or avoid his assigned work. OW contains two main components often studied in silos: work withdrawal (delays, absenteeism and other adverse behaviors) and job withdrawal (turnover). We use the systemic micro, meso and macro sociological approach designing the individual at the heart of a system containing individual, organizational, and environmental determinants. Under the influence of these different factors, the individual assesses the type of behavior to adopt. We provide better lighting for understanding OW using both psychological contract approach through the perception of its respect by the organization and job embeddedness approach which explains why the employee does not leave the organization and then remains in his post while practicing negative and counterproductive behaviors such as OW. We study specifically cynicism as a type of OW as it is a dimension of burnout. We focus on the antecedents of cynicism to try to prevent it in the workplace.

Keywords: burnout, cynicism, job embeddedness, organizational withdrawal, psychological contract

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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The basic objective of this paper is twofold. It resides in designing a model for a contingent convertible lease contract that can ensure the financial stability of a company and recover the losses of the parties to the lease in the event of default. It also aims to compare the convertible lease contract on inefficiencies resulting from the debt-overhang problem and asset substitution with other financing policies. From this perspective, this paper highlights the interaction between investments and financing policies in a dynamic model with existing assets and a growth option where the investment cost is financed by a contingent convertible lease and equity. We explore the impact of the contingent convertible lease on the capital structure. We also check the reliability and effectiveness of the use of the convertible lease contract as a means of financing. Findings show that the rental convertible contract with a sufficiently high conversion ratio has less severe inefficiencies arising from risk-shifting and debt overhang than those entailed by risky debt and pure-equity financing. The problem of underinvestment pointed out by Mauer and Ott (2000) and the problem of overinvestment mentioned by Hackbarth and Mauer (2012) may be reduced under contingent convertible lease financing. Our findings predict that the firm value under contingent convertible lease financing increases globally with asset volatility instead of decreasing with business risk. The study reveals that convertible leasing contracts can stand for a reliable solution to ensure the lessee and quickly recover the counterparties of the lease upon default.

Keywords: contingent convertible lease, growth option, debt overhang, risk-shifting, capital structure

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Authors: Huey-Kuo Chen

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This paper applies directional marginal productivity model to study the shadow price of emissions by transportation modes in the years of 2011 and 2013 with the aim to provide a reference for policy makers to improve the emission of pollutants. One input variable (i.e., energy consumption), one desirable output variable (i.e., vehicle kilometers traveled) and three undesirable output variables (i.e., carbon dioxide, sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides) generated by road transportation modes were used to evaluate directional marginal productivity and directional shadow price for 18 transportation modes. The results show that the directional shadow price (DSP) of SOx is much higher than CO2 and NOx. Nevertheless, the emission of CO2 is the largest among the three kinds of pollutants. To improve the air quality, the government should pay more attention to the emission of CO2 and apply the alternative solution such as promoting public transportation and subsidizing electric vehicles to reduce the use of private vehicles.

Keywords: marginal productivity, road transportation modes, shadow price, undesirable outputs

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Authors: Sutanto, Alexander Christy, N. Sutrisno

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The demand of a product is linearly dependent on the price and quality of the product. It is analog to the demand of the employee in job-seeker problem. This paper address a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) where a university plays role as manufacturer that produce graduates as job-seeker according to the demand and promote them to a certain corporation through a trial. Unemployed occurs when the job-seeker failed the trial or dismissed. A third party accomodates the unemployed and sends them back to the university to increase their quality through training.

Keywords: CLSC, price, quality, job-seeker problem

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Authors: R. M. Rajapaksa

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Construction industry is one of the key players in driving the economy of a country to achieve its prosperity. However, a dispute is one of the crucial factors which prevent the completion of construction contracts within the budgeted cost, scheduled time, and accepted quality. Disputes are inevitable in the construction contract. Accordingly, a study has been undertaken to identify the factors affecting contractual disputes in construction projects in Sri Lanka. The study was a mixed approach with major qualitative and minor quantitative. Qualitative study was set in the form of in-depth interviews with eighteen participants, and quantitative study was conducted using a questionnaire with twenty-four respondents from previously implemented projects by the National Water Supply & Drainage Board representing the employer, engineer and the Contractor to identify the factors affecting contractual disputes and to verify most critical factors respectively. Data analysis for qualitative and quantitative studies was carried out by means of transcribing, code & categorizeand average score methods, respectively. The study reveals that there are forty factors affecting the contractual disputes in construction contracts in Sri Lanka. The finding further illustrates that conflicting decisions by inexperience personnel in the higher position of the Employer, ambiguities resulting inadequate descriptions of the preliminary/general items in price schedule, unfair valuation and late confirmation of variations, unfair determination due to lack of experience of the Engineer/Consultant, under certification of progress payments, unfair grant of EOT & application of delay damages, unreasonable claims for variation of works, errors/discrepancies/ambiguities in the contract conditions and discrepancies & errors in designs & specifications are the most critical factors affecting contractual disputes. Finally, the study proposed remedial measures to most critical factors affecting contractual disputes.

Keywords: dispute, contractual, factors, employer, engineer, contractor, construction projects

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Authors: Tzu-Ching Weng, Hsin-Yi Chi

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This study examines the effect of family succession on the cost of bank loans and non-price contractual terms. We use a unique dataset from China and find that lending banks are likely to charge high-interest rates and offer tight contractual terms, such as loan maturity and collateral requirement, for family succession firms. These findings indicate that information and default risks may arise after subsequent family successions. We also find that family succession firms can reduce the cost of bank loans by hiring top-tier auditors to enhance financial reporting credibility. This finding suggests that professional and high-quality auditors can provide extremely valuable services to family succession firms.

Keywords: family succession, cost of bank loans, loan contract terms, top-tier auditor

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Authors: Zhuo Feng, Ying Gao

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Public-private partnership (PPP), as an innovative way to provide infrastructures by the private sector, is being widely used throughout the world. Compared with the traditional mode, PPP emerges largely for merits of relieving public budget constraint and improving infrastructure supply efficiency by involving private funds. However, PPP projects are characterized by large scale, high investment, long payback period, and long concession period. These characteristics make PPP projects full of risks. One of the most important risks faced by the private sector is demand risk because many factors affect the real demand. If the real demand is far lower than the forecasting demand, the private sector will be got into big trouble because operating revenue is the main means for the private sector to recoup the investment and obtain profit. Therefore, it is important to study how the government compensates the private sector when the demand risk occurs in order to achieve Pareto-improvement. This research focuses on price compensation mechanism, an ex-post compensation mechanism, and analyzes, by mathematical modeling, the impact of price compensation mechanism on payoff of the private sector and consumer surplus for PPP toll road projects. This research first investigates whether or not price compensation mechanisms can obtain Pareto-improvement and, if so, then explores boundary conditions for this mechanism. The research results show that price compensation mechanism can realize Pareto-improvement under certain conditions. Especially, to make the price compensation mechanism accomplish Pareto-improvement, renegotiation costs of the government and the private sector should be lower than a certain threshold which is determined by marginal operating cost and distortionary cost of the tax. In addition, the compensation percentage should match with the price cut of the private investor when demand drops. This research aims to provide theoretical support for the government when determining compensation scope under the price compensation mechanism. Moreover, some policy implications can also be drawn from the analysis for better risk-sharing and sustainability of PPP projects.

Keywords: infrastructure, price compensation mechanism, public-private partnership, renegotiation

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Authors: Masoud Rabbani, Majede Smizadeh, Hamed Farrokhi-Asl

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We study jointly determining prices and production in a multiple period horizon under a general non-stationary stochastic demand with continuous prices. In some periods we need to increase capacity of production to satisfy demand. This paper presents a model to aid multi-period production capacity planning by quantifying the trade-off between product quality and production cost. The product quality is estimated as the statistical variation from the target performances obtained from the output tolerances of the production machines that manufacture the components. We consider different tolerance for different machines that use to increase capacity. The production cost is estimated as the total cost of owning and operating a production facility during the planning horizon.so capacity planning has cost that impact on price. Pricing products often turns out to be difficult to measure them because customers have a reservation price to pay that impact on price and demand. We decide to determine prices and production for periods after enhance capacity and consider reservation price to determine price. First we use an algorithm base on fuzzy set of the optimal objective function values to determine capacity planning by determine maximize interval from upper bound in minimum objectives and define weight for objectives. Then we try to determine inventory and pricing policies. We can use a lemma to solve a problem in MATLAB and find exact answer.

Keywords: price policy, inventory policy, capacity planning, product quality, epsilon -constraint

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Authors: Jiemiao Chen, Shuoxun Xu

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The main goal of our research is to apply the Vine copula measuring dependency between price, temperature, and precipitation indices to calculate a fair crop insurance premium. This research is focused on Worth, Iowa, United States, over the period from 2000 to 2020, where the farmers are dependent on precipitation and average temperature during the growth period of corn. Our proposed insurance considers both the natural risk and the price risk in agricultural production. We first estimate the distributions of crops using parametric methods based on Goodness of Fit tests, and then Vine Copula is applied to model dependence between yield price, crop yield, and weather indices. Once the vine structure and its parameters are determined based on AIC/BIC criteria and forecasting price and yield are obtained from the ARIMA model, we calculate this crop insurance premium using the simulation data generated from the vine copula by the Monte Carlo Simulation method. It is shown that, compared with traditional crop insurance, our proposed insurance is more fair and thus less costly for the farmers and government.

Keywords: vine copula, weather index, crop insurance premium, insurance risk management, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Erindi Allaj

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This paper studies arbitrage pricing theory in financial markets with transaction costs. We extend the existing theory to include the more realistic possibility that the price at which the investors trade is dependent on the traded volume. The investors in the market always buy at the ask and sell at the bid price. Transaction costs are composed of two terms, one is able to capture the implicit transaction costs and the other the price impact. Moreover, a new definition of a self-financing portfolio is obtained. The self-financing condition suggests that continuous trading is possible, but is restricted to predictable trading strategies which have left and right limit and finite quadratic variation. That is, predictable trading strategies of infinite variation and of finite quadratic variation are allowed in our setting. Within this framework, the existence of an equivalent probability measure is equivalent to the absence of arbitrage opportunities, so that the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FFTAP) holds. It is also proved that, when this probability measure is unique, any contingent claim in the market is hedgeable in an L2-sense. The price of any contingent claim is equal to the risk-neutral price. To better understand how to apply the theory proposed we provide an example with linear transaction costs.

Keywords: arbitrage pricing theory,
transaction costs, fundamental theorems of arbitrage, financial markets

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Authors: Daniel Mokatsanyane, Johnny Jansen Van Rensburg

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The integral role oil-crushing companies play in sunflower oil production is often overlooked to offer high-quality oil to refineries and end consumers. Sunflower oil crushing companies in South Africa are exposed to price fluctuations resulting from the local and international markets. Hedging instruments enable these companies to hedge themselves against unexpected prices spikes and to ensure sustained profitability. A crushing company is a necessary middleman, and as such, these companies have exposure to the purchasing and selling sides of sunflower. Sunflower oil crushing companies purchase sunflower seeds from farmers or agricultural companies that provide storage facilities. The purchasing price is determined by the supply and demand of sunflower seed, both national and international. When the price of sunflower seeds in South Africa is high but still below import parity, then the crush margins realised by these companies are reduced or even negative at times. There are three main products made by sunflower oil crushing companies, oil, meal, and shells. Profits are realised from selling three products, namely, sunflower oil, meal and shells. However, when selling sunflower oil to refineries, sunflower oil crushing companies needs to hedge themselves against a reduction in vegetable oil prices. Hedging oil prices is often done via futures and is subject to specific volume commitments before a hedge position can be taken in. Furthermore, South African oil-crushing companies hedge sunflower oil with international, Over-the-counter contracts as South Africa is a price taker of sunflower oil and not a price maker. As such, South Africa provides a fraction of the world’s sunflower oil supply and, therefore, has minimal influence on price changes. The advantage of hedging using futures ensures that the sunflower crushing company will know the profits they will realise, but the downside is that they can no longer benefit from a price increase. Alternative hedging instruments like options might pose a solution to the opportunity cost does not go missing and that profit margins are locked in at the best possible prices for the oil crushing company. This paper aims to investigate the possibility of employing options alongside futures to simulate different scenarios to determine if options can bridge the opportunity cost gap.

Keywords: derivatives, hedging, price risk, sunflower, sunflower oil, South Africa

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Authors: Natalia Strobel, Jan Kratzer

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In this paper, we test whether different types of research and development (R&D) alliances positively impact the radical innovation performance of firms. We differentiate between the R&D alliances without extern R&D orders and embeddedness in knowledge source network. We test the differences between the domestically diversified R&D alliances and R&D alliances diversified abroad. Moreover, we test how non-price competition influences the impact of domestically diversified R&D alliances, and R&D alliance diversified abroad on radical innovation performance. Our empirical analysis is based on the comprehensive Swiss innovation panel, which allowed us to study 3520 firms between the years between 1996 and 2011 in 3 years intervals. We analyzed the data with a linear estimation with Swamy-Aurora transformation using plm package in R software. Our results show as hypothesized a positive impact of R&D alliances diversity abroad as well as domestically on radical innovation performance. The effect of non-price interaction is in contrast to our hypothesis, not significant. This suggests that diversity of R&D alliances is highly advantageous independent of non-price competition.

Keywords: R&D alliances, partner diversity, knowledge source diversity, non-price competition, absorptive capacity

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Authors: Chariton Christou, David Cornwell

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Production Sharing Contract (PSC) is the type of contract that is being used widely in our time. The financial crisis made the governments tightfisted and they do not have the resources to participate in a development of a field. Therefore, more and more countries introduce the PSC. The companies have the power and the money to develop the field with their own way. The main problem is the transparency of oil and gas companies especially in the PSC and how this can be achieved. Many discussions have been made especially in the U.K. What we are suggesting is a dynamic financial simulation with the help of a flow meter. The flow meter will count the production of each field every day (it will be installed in a pipeline). The production will be the basic input of the simulation. It will count the profit, the costs and more according to the information of the flow meter. In addition it will include the terms of the contract and the costs that have been paid. By all these parameters the simulation will be able to present in real time the information of a field (taxes, employees, R-factor). By this simulation the company will share some information with the government but not all of them. The government will know the taxes that should be paid and what is the sharing percentage of it. All of the other information could be confidential for the company. Furthermore, oil company could control the R-factor by changing the production each day to maximize its sharing percentages and as a result of this the profit. This idea aims to change the way that governments 'control' oil companies and bring a transparency evolution in the industry. With the help of a simulation every country could be next to the company and have a better collaboration.

Keywords: production sharing contracts, transparency, simulation

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

Abstract:

Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Siddhant Sahu, P. James Daniel Paul

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Technical analysis comprised by various technical indicators is a holistic way of representing price movement of stocks in the market. Various forms of indicators have evolved from the primitive ones in the past decades. There have been many attempts to introduce volume as a major determinant to determine strong patterns in market forecasting. The law of demand defines the relationship between the volume and price. Most of the traders are familiar with the volume game. Including the time dimension to the law of demand provides a different visualization to the theory. While attempting the same, it was found that there are different thresholds in the market for different companies. These thresholds have a significant influence on the price. This article is an attempt in determining the thresholds for companies using the three dimensional graphs for optimizing the portfolios. It also emphasizes on the magnitude of importance of volumes as a key factor for determining of predicting strong price movements, bullish and bearish markets. It uses a comprehensive data set of major companies which form a major chunk of the Indian automotive sector and are thus used as an illustration.

Keywords: technical analysis, expert system, law of demand, stocks, portfolio analysis, Indian automotive sector

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Authors: Abdallah Q. Bataineh

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The electronics market in Jordan is facing extraordinary expectations from consumers, whose opinions are progressively more essential and have effective power on the overall marketing strategy preparation and execution by electronics agents. This research aimed to explore the effect of price volatile, follow-up, maintenance and warranty policy on distributor’s retention. Focus group, in-depth interviews, and self-administered questionnaire were held with a total sample of 50 electronics distribution stores who have a direct contact and purchase frequently from electronic agencies. By using descriptive statistics and multiple regression tests, the main findings of this research is that there is an impact of price volatile, follow-up, maintenance and warranty policy on distributor’s retention, and the key predictor variable was price volatile. Thus, the researcher recommended flat rate pricing strategy to ensure that all distributors will sell the product on the same pricing base, regardless of the generated margin by each one of them. Moreover, conclusion and future research were also discussed.

Keywords: distributors retention, follow-up, maintenance, price volatile, warranty policy

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Authors: Mohammad Rahim Rahnama

Abstract:

Market-transaction price for housing is the main criteria for determining municipality taxes and is determined and announced on an annual basis. Of course, there is a discrepancy between the actual value of transactions in the Bureau of Finance (P for short) or municipality (P´ for short) and the real price on the market (P˝). The present research aims to determine the real price of housing in the metropolis of Mashhad and to pinpoint the price gap with those of the aforementioned apparatuses and identify the factors affecting it. In order to reach this practical objective, Automatic Linear Modeling, which calls for an explanatory research, was utilized. The population of the research consisted of all the residential units in Mashhad, from which 317 residential units were randomly selected. Through cluster sampling, out of the 170 income blocks defined by the municipality, three blocks form high-income (Kosar), middle-income (Elahieh), and low-income (Seyyedi) strata were surveyed using questionnaires during February and March of 2015 and the information regarding the price and specifications of residential units were gathered. In order to estimate the effect of various factors on the price, the relationship between independent variables (8 variables) and the dependent variable of the housing price was calculated using Automatic Linear Modeling in SPSS. The results revealed that the average for housing price index is 788$ per square meter, compared to the Bureau of Finance’s prices which is 10$ and that of municipality’s which is 378$. Correlation coefficient among dependent and independent variables was calculated to be R²=0.81. Out of the eight initial variables, three were omitted. The most influential factor affecting the housing prices is the quality of Quality of construction (Ordinary, Full, Luxury). The least important factor influencing the housing prices is the variable of number of sides. The price gap between low-income (Seyyedi) and middle-income (Elahieh) districts was not confirmed via One-Way ANOVA but their gap with the high-income district (Kosar) was confirmed. It is suggested that city be divided into two low-income and high-income sections, as opposed three, in terms of housing prices.

Keywords: automatic linear modeling, housing prices, Mashhad, Iran

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Authors: Alhaji M. H. Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Alfred V. Gborie

Abstract:

The goal of this study was to increase the awareness of the description and assessments of rice acreage response and to offer mechanisms for agricultural policy scrutiny. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique was utilized to determine the coefficients of acreage response models for the rice varieties. The magnitudes of the coefficients (λ) of both the ROK lagged and NERICA lagged acreages were found positive and highly significant, which indicates that farmers’ adjustment rate was very low. Regarding lagged actual price for both the ROK and NERICE rice varieties, the short-run price elasticities were lower than long-run, which is suggesting a long-term adjustment of the acreage, is under the crop. However, the apparent recommendations for policy transformation are to open farm gate prices and to decrease government’s involvement in agricultural sector especially in the acquisition of agricultural inputs. Impending research have to be centred on how this might be better realized. Necessary conditions should be made available to the private sector by means of minimizing price volatility. In accordance with structural reforms, it is necessary to convey output prices to farmers with minimum distortion. There is a need to eradicate price subsidies and control, which generate distortion in the market in addition to huge financial costs.

Keywords: acreage response, rate of adjustment, rice varieties, Sierra Leone

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Authors: Sohanur Rahman, Elisabeth Sinnewe, Larelle (Ellie) Chapple, Sarah Osborne

Abstract:

Greater political attention to global climate change exposes firms to a higher level of political uncertainty, which can lead to adverse capital market consequences. However, a higher level of discourse on environment-specific political risk (EPR) between management and investors can mitigate information asymmetry, followed by less stock price crash risk. This study examines whether EPR discourse in discourse in the earnings conference calls (ECC) reduces firm-level stock price crash risk in the US market. This research also explores if adverse disclosures via media channels further moderates the association between EPR on crash risk. Employing a dataset of 28,933 firm-year observations from 2002 to 2020, the empirical analysis reveals that EPR discourse in ECC reduces future stock price crash risk. However, adverse disclosures via media channels can offset the favourable effect of EPR discourse on crash risk. The results are robust to the potential endogeneity concern in a quasi-natural experiment setting.

Keywords: earnings conference calls, environment, environment-specific political risk discourse, environmental disclosures, information asymmetry, reputation risk, stock price crash risk

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Authors: H. R. Kamali, A. Sadegheih, M. A. Vahdat-Zad, H. Khademi-Zare

Abstract:

In this paper, a single product, multi-echelon, multi-period closed loop supply chain is surveyed, including a variety of costs, time conditions, and capacities, to plan and determine the values and time of the components procurement, production, distribution, recycling and disposal specially for high-tech products that undergo a decreasing production cost and sale price over time. For this purpose, the mathematic model of the problem that is a kind of mixed integer linear programming is presented, and it is finally proved that the problem belongs to the category of NP-hard problems.

Keywords: closed loop supply chain, continuous price decrease, NP-hard, planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 338

Authors: V. Benedico, C. Anacleto, A. Bearzi, L. Brice, V. Delahaye

Abstract:

The aim in present paper is to construct an affordable and reliable commodity prices based on a recalculation of its cost through time which allows visualize the potential risks and thus, take more appropriate decisions regarding forecasts. Here attention has been focused on Levy model, more reliable and realistic than classical random Gaussian one as it takes into consideration observed abrupt jumps in case of sudden price variation. In application to Energy Trading sector where it has never been used before, equations corresponding to Levy model have been written for electricity pricing in European market. Parameters have been set in order to predict and simulate the price and its evolution through time to remarkable accuracy. As predicted by Levy model, the results show significant spikes which reach unconventional levels contrary to currently used Brownian model.

Keywords: commodity pricing, Lévy Model, price spikes, electricity market

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Authors: Naseem Akhter, Rozina Khattak, Arshad Munir

Abstract:

The Islamic social and family system is very clear concerning will, choice, consent and negation of compulsion and force in human life. Marriage is not only a civil contract but also a religious and spiritual contract between spouse (man and woman), which allows them for each other to live gladly, joyfully and legally in the society. It is an immortal and perpetual association between man and woman, which is filled with sympathetic affection, kindness, compassion and security. Islam gives specific rights to parents and guardians to set up the marriage ceremony and get done it as a respectful family occasion, confer their blessing and advice for a life partner of their children. The rights of parents and guardians are summed up in the term of "Willayah”. Islam does not permit parents, guardians and other relatives to compel their children regarding the marriage of their choice, because the groom and the bride are the real parties of the contract. Therefore, their willingness is of prime importance in order to spend whole life with each other. The Holy Prophet (peace and blessings of Allah be upon him) prohibits forcing a virgin to marriage without her permission, whether this is her father or someone else. The right of free consent to choose a life partner is the basic right for the human which is God (Allah) gifted. Unfortunately, forced marriage is a common practice in Pakistani society that has no link with Islam. This article is being written in the same context.

Keywords: choice, consent, forced marriage, Islam, parents, spouse

Procedia PDF Downloads 290