Search results for: climate extreme

Authors: M. M. Ubayo, U. S. Babuga, A. Garba

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The study examined the level of climate change awareness and perception by rice farmers in Jigawa State, Nigeria. A multi-stage and purposive sampling technique was used to select respondents. The state is divided into four agricultural zones namely Birninkudu zone, Gumel zone, Hadejia zone, and Kazaure zone. Two agricultural zones (Gumel zone and Hadejia zones) were purposively selected. Six Local Government Areas (LGAs) were randomly selected from the two zones. Also, twenty rice farmers were purposively selected from each of the LGAS. Data were analyzed using frequency and percentages. The result shows that 83.3% of the respondents are aware of the climate change impact on their rice output. Personal experience is the main sources of climate change information in the study area, another 45.6% adopted use of irrigation as the most effective measure to combating climate change, 25.5% use of early maturing variety. Further studies are needed on how to combat the threat and menace of the climate change in the study area.

Keywords: awareness, perception, climate, change, Jigawa

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Authors: Paraskevi Liosatou

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Climate change is considered to be of global concern being amplified by the fact that by its nature, cannot be spatially limited. This fact makes necessary the intergovernmental decision-making procedures. In the intergovernmental level, the institutions such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change develop efforts, methods, and practices in order to plan and suggest climate mitigation and adaptation measures. These measures are based on specific scientific findings and methods making clear the strong connection between science and policy. In particular, these scientific recommendations offer a series of practices, methods, and choices mitigating the problem by aiming at the indirect mitigation of the causes and the factors amplifying climate change. Moreover, modern production and economic context do not take into consideration the social, political, environmental and spatial dimensions of the problem. This work studies the decision-making process working in international and European level. In this context, this work considers the policy tools that have been implemented by various intergovernmental organizations. The methodology followed is based mainly on the critical study of standards and process concerning the connections and cooperation between science and policy as well as considering the skeptic debates developed. The finding of this work focuses on the links between science and policy developed by the institutional and scientific mechanisms concerning climate change mitigation. It also analyses the dimensions and the factors of the science-policy framework; in this way, it points out the causes that maintain skepticism in current scientific circles.

Keywords: climate change, climate change mitigation, climate change skepticism, IPCC, skepticism

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Authors: Nagham Ismail, Djamel Ouahrani

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Thermal resilience in the built environment reflects the building's capacity to adapt to extreme climate changes. In hot climates, power outages in office buildings pose risks to the health and productivity of workers. Therefore, it is of interest to quantify the thermal resilience of office buildings by developing a user-friendly simplified model. This simplified model begins with creating an assessment metric of thermal resilience that measures the duration between the power outage and the point at which the thermal habitability condition is compromised, considering different power interruption times (morning, noon, and afternoon). In this context, energy simulations of an office building are conducted for Qatar's summer weather by changing different parameters that are related to the (i) wall characteristics, (ii) glazing characteristics, (iii) load, (iv) orientation and (v) air leakage. The simulation results are processed using SPSS to derive linear regression equations, aiding stakeholders in evaluating the performance of commercial buildings during different power interruption times. The findings reveal the significant influence of glazing characteristics on thermal resilience, with the morning power outage scenario posing the most detrimental impact in terms of the shortest duration before compromising thermal resilience.

Keywords: thermal resilience, thermal envelope, energy modeling, building simulation, thermal comfort, power disruption, extreme weather

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Authors: Laxmi Prasad Bhattarai

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Climate change is regarded as one of the most fundamental threats to sustainable livelihood and global development. There is a growing global concern in linking community-managed forests as potential climate change mitigation projects. This study was conducted to explore local people’s perception on climate change and the role of community forestry (CF) to combat climate change impacts. Two active community forest user groups (CFUGs) from Kaski and Syangja Districts in Nepal were selected as study sites, and various participatory tools were applied to collect primary data. Although most of the respondents were unaware about the words “Climate Change” in study sites, they were quite familiar with the irregularities in rainfall season and other weather extremities. 60% of the respondents had the idea that, due to increase in precipitation, there is a frequent occurrence of erosion, floods, and landslide. Around 85% of the people agreed that community forests help in stabilizing soil, reducing the natural hazards like erosion, landslide. Biogas as an alternative source of cooking energy, and changes in crops and their varieties are the common adaptation measures that local people start practicing in both CFUGs in Nepal.

Keywords: community forestry, climate change, global warming, adaptation, Nepal

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Authors: M. Adamczak-Retecka, O. Hołub-Śniadach

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Dangerous of climate change is now global problem and as such has a strategic priority also for the European Union. Europe and European citizens try to do their best to cut greenhouse gas emissions, moreover they substantially encourage other nations and regions to follow the same way. The European Commission and a number of Member States have developed adaptation strategies in order to help strengthen EU's resilience to the inevitable impacts of climate change. The EU has long been a driving force in international negotiations on climate change and was instrumental in the development of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. As the world's leading donor of development aid, the EU also provides substantial funding to help developing countries tackle climate change problem. Global warming influences human health, biodiversity, ecosystems but also many social and economic sectors. The aim of this paper is to focus on impact of claimant change on for food security. Food security challenges are directly related to globalization, climate change. It means that current and future food policy is exposed to all cross-cutting and that must be linked with environmental and climate targets, which supposed to be achieved. In the 7th EAP —The new general Union Environment Action Program to 2020, called “Living well, within the limits of our planet” EU has agreed to step up its efforts to protect natural capital, stimulate resource efficient, low carbon growth and innovation, and safeguard people’s health and wellbeing– while respecting the Earth’s natural limits.

Keywords: climate change, food security, sustainable food consumption, climate governance

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Authors: Deginet Aklilu, Tianqi Wang, Endwoke Amsalu, Wei Feng, Zhiwei Li, Xia Li, Lixin Tao, Yanxia Luo, Moning Guo, Xiangtong Liu, Xiuhua Guo

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Extreme temperature-related cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have become a growing public health concern. However, the impact of temperature on the cause of specific CVDs has not been well studied in the study area. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of temperature on cause-specific cardiovascular hospital admissions in Beijing, China. We obtained data from 172 large general hospitals from the Beijing Public Health Information Center Cardiovascular Case Database and China. Meteorological Administration covering 16 districts in Beijing from 2013 to 2017. We used a time-stratified case crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to derive the impact of temperature on CVD in hospitals back to 27 days on CVD admissions. The temperature data were stratified as cold (extreme and moderate ) and hot (moderate and extreme ). Within five years (January 2013-December 2017), a total of 460,938 (male 54.9% and female 45.1%) CVD admission cases were reported. The exposure-response relationship for hospitalization was described by a "J" shape for the total and cause-specific. An increase in the six-day moving average temperature from moderate hot (30.2 °C) to extreme hot (36.9 °C) resulted in a significant increase in CVD admissions of 16.1%(95% CI = 12.8%-28.9%). However, the effect of cold temperature exposure on CVD admissions over a lag time of 0-27 days was found to be non significant, with a relative risk of 0.45 (95% CI = 0.378-0.55) for extreme cold (-8.5 °C)and 0.53 (95% CI = 0.47-0.60) for moderate cold (-5.6 °C). The results of this study indicate that exposure to extremely high temperatures is highly associated with an increase in cause-specific CVD admissions. These finding may guide to create and raise awareness of the general population, government and private sectors regarding on the effects of current weather conditions on CVD.

Keywords: admission, Beijing, cardiovascular diseases, distributed lag non linear model, temperature

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Authors: Mohammad Aynal Haque

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Under the international cooperation — Paris Agreement — countries outline their self-determined policy ambition for emissions reduction in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as a key to addressing climate change globally. Although practically all countries commit themselves to reach the Paris landmark (below 20 C) globally, some act as climate leaders, others behave as followers, and others turn out to be climate laggards. As a result, there is a substantial variation in ‘emissions reduction targets’ across countries. Thus, a question emerges: What explains this variation? Or why do some countries opt for higher while others opt for lower ‘emissions reduction targets toward global mitigation efforts? Conceptualizing the ‘emissions reduction targets by 2030’ outlined in NDCs by each country as the climate policy ambition (CPA), this paper explores how certain national political, economic, environmental, and external factors play vital roles in determining climate policy ambition. Based on the cross-country regression analysis among 168 countries, this study finds that democracy, vulnerability to climate change effects, and foreign direct investment have substantial effects on CPA. The paper also finds that resource capacity has a minimal negative effect on CPA across developed countries.

Keywords: climate change, Paris agreement, international cooperation, political economy, environmental politics, NDCs

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Authors: Dirk V. H. K. Franco

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For many of us a lot of phenomena are considered a risk. Examples are: climate change, decrease of biodiversity, amount of available, clean water and the decreasing variety of living organism in the oceans. On the other hand a lot of people perceive the following trends as catastrophic: the sea level, the melting of the pole ice, the numbers of tornado’s, floods and forest fires, the national security and the potential of 192 million climate migrants in 2060. The interest for climate, health and the possible solutions is large and common. The 5th IPCC states that the last decades especially human activities (and in second order natural emissions) have caused large, mainly negative impacts on our ecological environments. Chris Stringer stated that we represent, nowadays after evolution, the only one version of the possible humanity. At this very moment we are faced with an (over) crowded planet together with global climate changes and a strong demand for energy and material resources. Let us hope that we can counter these difficulties either with better application of existing technologies or by inventing new (applications of) clean technologies together with new business models.

Keywords: clean technologies, catastrophic, climate, possible solutions

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Authors: Dagaci Aliyu Manbe, Anthony Abah Ebonyi

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The increase in global temperatures is worsened by frequent natural events and human activities. Climate change has taken a prominent space in the global discourse on crime and criminality. Compared to when the subject centred around the discussion on the depletion of the ozone layer and global warming, today, the narrative revolves around the implications of changes in weather and climatic conditions in relations to violent crimes or conflict that traverse vast social, economic, and political spaces in different countries. Global warming and climate change refer to an increase in average global temperatures in the Earth’s near-surface air and oceans, which occurs due to human activities such as deforestation and the burning of fossil fuel such as gas flaring. The trend is projected to continue, if unchecked. This paper seeks to explore the nexus between climate change and criminality in Nigeria. It further examines the main ecological changes that predispose conflict dynamics of security threats factored by climate change to peaceful co-existence in Nigeria. It concludes with some recommendations on the way forward.

Keywords: conflict, climate change, criminality, global warning, peace

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Authors: Malek Jamaliah, Robert Powell

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In spite of the influence of climate change on tourism destinations, particularly those rely heavily on natural resources, little attention paid to study the appropriate adaptation efforts to cope with, moderate and benefit from the impacts of climate change. The existing literature indicated that the research of climate change adaptation in the tourism and outdoor recreation field is at least 5-7 years behind other sectors such as water resources and agriculture. In Jordan, there are many observed changes in climate patterns such as higher temperatures, decreased precipitation and increased severity and frequency of drought. Dana Biosphere Reserve (DBR), the largest protected area and the major eco-tourism destination in Jordan, is facing climate change, which gradually degrading environment, shifting tourism seasons and changing livelihood and lifestyle of local communities. This study aims to assess climate change adaptation practices and policies used in DBR to cope with climate change related-risks. We conducted qualitative semi-structured interviews with key informants in DBR to assess climate change adaptation practices. Direct content analysis (or a priori content analysis) was used to determine the components and indicators of climate change adaptation. The results found that DBR has implemented a wide range of adaptation practices, including infrastructure development, diversification of tourism products, environmentally-friendly practices, visitor management, land use management, rainwater collection, environmental monitoring and research, environmental education and collaboration with stakeholders. These diverse practices implicitly and explicitly play an important role in coping with the social, economic and environmental impacts caused by climate change. Finally, this study demonstrated that climate change adaptation is closely related to sustainable management of eco-tourism.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, dana biosphere reserve, ecotourism, sustainable management

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Authors: Sadik Yigit

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The energy consumed in the buildings constitutes a large portion of the total energy consumption in the world. In this study, it was aimed to measure the impact of climate change on the energy consumption of residential building stock by analyzing a typical mid-rise residential building in four different climate regions of Turkey. An integrated system was developed using the "Distribution Evolutionary Algorithms in Python" tool and Energy Plus. By using the developed integrated system, the energy performance of the typical residential building was analyzed under the effect of different climate change scenarios. The results indicated that predicted overheating will be experienced in the future, which will significantly increase the cooling energy loads of the buildings. In addition, design solutions to improve the future energy performance of the buildings were proposed, considering budget constraints. The results of the study will guide researchers studying in this area of research and designers in the sector in finding climate change resilient design solutions.

Keywords: energy_efficient, residential buildings, climate change, energyplus

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Authors: Omar Romero-Hernandez, Federico Castillo, Armando Sanchez, Sergio Romero, Andrea Romero, Michael Mitchell

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Environmental policies for resource conservation in rural areas include subsidies on services and social programs to cover living expenses. Government's expectation is that rural communities who benefit from social programs, such as payment for ecosystem services, are provided with an incentive to conserve natural resources and preserve natural sinks for greenhouse gases. At the same time, global climate change has affected the lives of people worldwide. The capability to adapt to global warming depends on the available resources and the standard of living, putting rural communities at a disadvantage. This paper explores whether rural entrepreneurship can represent a solution to resource conservation and global warming adaptation in rural communities. The research focuses on a sample of two coffee communities in Oaxaca, Mexico. Researchers used geospatial information contained in aerial photographs of the geographical areas of interest. Households were identified in the photos via the roofs of households and georeferenced via coordinates. From the household population, a random selection of roofs was performed and received a visit. A total of 112 surveys were completed, including questions of socio-demographics, perception to climate change and adaptation activities. The population includes two groups of study: entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs. Data was sorted, filtered, and validated. Analysis includes descriptive statistics for exploratory purposes and a multi-regression analysis. Outcomes from the surveys indicate that coffee farmers, who demonstrate entrepreneurship skills and hire employees, are more eager to adapt to climate change despite the extreme adverse socioeconomic conditions of the region. We show that farmers with entrepreneurial tendencies are more creative in using innovative farm practices such as the planting of shade trees, the use of live fencing, instead of wires, and watershed protection techniques, among others. This result counters the notion that small farmers are at the mercy of climate change and have no possibility of being able to adapt to a changing climate. The study also points to roadblocks that farmers face when coping with climate change. Among those roadblocks are a lack of extension services, access to credit, and reliable internet, all of which reduces access to vital information needed in today’s constantly changing world. Results indicate that, under some circumstances, funding and supporting entrepreneurship programs may provide more benefit than traditional social programs.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, global warming, rural communities, climate change adaptation

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Authors: Lauren A. Bailey, Amber R. Childs, Nicola C. James, Murray I. Duncan, Alexander Winkler, Warren M. Potts

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Changes in behaviour and physiology are the most important responses of marine life to anthropogenic impacts such as climate change and over-fishing. Behavioural changes (such as a shift in distribution or changes in phenology) can ensure that a species remains in an environment suited for its optimal physiological performance. However, if marine life is unable to shift their distribution, they are reliant on physiological adaptation (either by broadening their metabolic curves to tolerate a range of stressors or by shifting their metabolic curves to maximize their performance at extreme stressors). However, since there are links between fish physiology and behaviour, changes to either of these traits may have reciprocal interactions. This paper reviews the current knowledge of the links between the behaviour and physiology of fishes, discusses these in the context of exploitation and climate change, and makes recommendations for future research needs. The review revealed that our understanding of the links between fish behaviour and physiology is rudimentary. However, both are hypothesized to be linked to stress responses along the hypothalamic pituitary axis. The link between physiological capacity and behaviour is particularly important as both determine the response of an individual to a changing climate and are under selection by fisheries. While it appears that all types of capture fisheries are likely to reduce the adaptive potential of fished populations to climate stressors, angling, which is primarily associated with recreational fishing, may induce fission of natural populations by removing individuals with bold behavioural traits and potentially the physiological traits required to facilitate behavioural change. Future research should focus on assessing how the links between physiological capacity and behaviour influence catchability, the response to climate change drivers, and post-release recovery. The plasticity of phenotypic traits should be examined under a range of stressors of differing intensity in several species and life history stages. Future studies should also assess plasticity (fission or fusion) in the phenotypic structuring of social hierarchy and how this influences habitat selection. Ultimately, to fully understand how physiology is influenced by the selective processes driven by fisheries, long-term monitoring of the physiological and behavioural structure of fished populations, their fitness, and catch rates are required.

Keywords: climate change, metabolic shifts, over-fishing, phenotypic plasticity, stress response

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Authors: Reet Bishnoi

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Climate change poses a pressing global challenge, with far-reaching consequences for the planet's ecosystems and biodiversity. This abstract introduces the research topic, "Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity Hotspots: A Multidisciplinary Study," which delves into the intricate relationship between climate change and biodiversity in the world's most ecologically diverse regions. Biodiversity hotspots, characterized by their exceptionally high species richness and endemism, are under increasing threat due to rising global temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate-related factors. This research employs a multidisciplinary approach, incorporating ecological, climatological, and conservationist methodologies to comprehensively analyze the effects of climate change on these vital regions. Through a combination of field research, climate modelling, and ecological assessments, this study aims to elucidate the vulnerabilities of biodiversity hotspots and understand how changes in temperature and precipitation are affecting the diverse species and ecosystems that inhabit these areas. The research seeks to identify potential tipping points, assess the resilience of native species, and propose conservation strategies that can mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on these critical regions. By illuminating the complex interplay between climate change and biodiversity hotspots, this research not only contributes to our scientific understanding of these issues but also informs policymakers, conservationists, and the public about the urgent need for coordinated efforts to safeguard our planet's ecological treasures. The outcomes of this multidisciplinary study are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping future climate policies and conservation practices, emphasizing the importance of protecting biodiversity hotspots for the well-being of the planet and future generations.

Keywords: climate change, biodiversity hotspots, ecological diversity, conservation, multidisciplinary study

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Authors: Ravi Kumar Pandit

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Climate change is regarded as one of the most fundamental threats to sustainable livelihood and global development. There is growing a global concern in linking community-managed forests as potential climate change mitigation projects. This study was conducted to explore the local people’s perception on climate change and the role of community forestry (CF) to combat climate change impacts. Two active community forest user groups (CFUGs) from Kaski and Syangja Districts in Nepal were selected as study sites, and various participatory tools were applied to collect primary data. Although most of the respondents were unaware about the words “Climate Change” in study sites, they were quite familiar with the irregularities in rainfall season and other weather extremities. 60% of the respondents had the idea that, due to increase in precipitation, there is a frequent occurrence of erosion, floods and landslide. Around 85% of the people agreed that community forests help in stabilizing soil, reducing the natural hazards like erosion, landslide. Biogas as an alternative source of cooking energy, and changes in crops and their varieties are the common adaptation measures that local people start practicing in both CFUGs in Nepal.

Keywords: climate change, community forestry, global warming, adaptation in Nepal

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Authors: Mohammad Borhani, Ahmad Jamshidzaei, Mehdi Koohsari

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The study of climate has captivated human interest throughout history. In response to this fascination, individuals historically organized their daily activities in alignment with prevailing climatic conditions and seasonal variations. Understanding the elements and specific climatic parameters of each region, such as precipitation, which directly impacts human life, is essential because, in recent years, there has been a significant increase in heavy rainfall in various parts of the world attributed to the effects of climate change. Climate prediction models suggest a future scenario characterized by an increase in severe precipitation events and related floods on a global scale. This is a result of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions causing changes in the natural precipitation patterns. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported global warming in 2001. The average global temperature has shown an increasing trend since 1861. In the 20th century, this increase has been between (0/2 ± 0/6) °C. The present study focused on examining the trend of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation in Sistan and Baluchestan provinces. The study employed data obtained from 13 precipitation measurement stations managed by the Iran Water Resources Management Company, encompassing daily precipitation records spanning the period from 1997 to 2016. The results indicated that the total monthly precipitation at the studied stations in Sistan and Baluchestan province follows a sinusoidal trend. The highest intense precipitation was observed in January, February, and March, while the lowest occurred in September, October, and then November. The investigation of the trend of seasonal precipitation in this province showed that precipitation follows an upward trend in the autumn season, reaching its peak in winter, and then shows a decreasing trend in spring and summer. Also, the examination of average precipitation indicated that the highest yearly precipitation occurred in 1997 and then in 2004, while the lowest annual precipitation took place between 1999 and 2001. The analysis of the annual precipitation trend demonstrates a decrease in precipitation from 1997 to 2016 in Sistan and Baluchestan province.

Keywords: climate change, extreme precipitation, greenhouse gas, trend analysis

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Authors: Adandé Belarmain Fandohan

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Climate change has become a major concern globally, particularly in rural communities that have to find rapid coping solutions. Several vulnerability assessment approaches have been developed in the last decades. This comes along with a higher risk for different methods to result in different conclusions, thereby making comparisons difficult and decision-making non-consistent across areas. The effect of methods and computational approaches on estimates of people’s vulnerability was assessed using data collected from the Gambia. Twenty-four indicators reflecting vulnerability components: (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) were selected for this purpose. Data were collected through household surveys and key informant interviews. One hundred and fifteen respondents were surveyed across six communities and two administrative districts. Results were compared over three computational approaches: the maximum value transformation normalization, the z-score transformation normalization, and simple averaging. Regardless of the approaches used, communities that have high exposure to climate change and extreme events were the most vulnerable. Furthermore, the vulnerability was strongly related to the socio-economic characteristics of farmers. The survey evidenced variability in vulnerability among communities and administrative districts. Comparing output across approaches, overall, people in the study area were found to be highly vulnerable using the simple average and maximum value transformation, whereas they were only moderately vulnerable using the z-score transformation approach. It is suggested that assessment approach-induced discrepancies be accounted for in international debates to harmonize/standardize assessment approaches to the end of making outputs comparable across regions. This will also likely increase the relevance of decision-making for adaptation policies.

Keywords: maximum value transformation, simple averaging, vulnerability assessment, West Africa, z-score transformation

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Authors: Abdelghani Qadem, Zouhair Qadem

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Like the countries of the Mediterranean region, Morocco is likely to be at high risk of water scarcity due to climate change. Morocco, which is the subject of this study, is located between two climatic zones, temperate in the North tropical in the South, Morocco is distinguished by four types of climate: humid, sub-humid, semi-arid, and arid. The last decades attest to the progression of the semi-arid climate towards the North of the country. The IPCC projections, which have been made in this direction, show that there is an overall downward trend in rainfall contributions varying on average between 10% and 30% depending on the scenario selected and the region considered, they also show an upward trend in average annual temperatures. These trends will have a real impact on water resources, which will result in a drop in the volume of water resources varying between 7.6% and 40.6%. The present study aims to describe the meteorological conditions of Morocco in order to answer the problem dealing with the effect of climatic fluctuations on water resources and to assess water vulnerability in the face of climate change.

Keywords: morocco, climate change, water resources, impact, water scarcity

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Authors: Mehul Srivastava, Sharma Tushar Ravikant, Mridul Krishn Mishra

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In structural design, the evaluation of safety and probability failure of structure is of significant importance, mainly when the variables are random. On real structures, structural reliability can be evaluated obtaining an implicit limit state function. The structural reliability limit state function is obtained depending upon the statistically independent variables. In the analysis of reliability, we considered the statistically independent random variables to be the load intensity applied and the depth or height of the beam member considered. There are many approaches for structural reliability problems. In this paper Extreme Learning Machine technique and First Order Second Moment Method is used to determine the reliability indices for the same set of variables. The reliability index obtained using ELM is compared with the reliability index obtained using FOSM. Higher the reliability index, more feasible is the method to determine the reliability.

Keywords: reliability, reliability index, statistically independent, extreme learning machine

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Authors: Lana Singleton

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Achieving a sufficient global solution to climate change seems elusive through disappointing climate agreements and lack of cooperation. However, is this reluctance of coordination deep rooted on a more individual, societal level within countries due to a fundamental lack of social and institutional trust? The risks of climate change are illustrious and widely accepted, yet responses on an individual level are also largely inadequate. This research looks to further investigate types of trust, risk perception of climate change, and their interaction to build a greater understanding of whether a social trap (Rothstein, 2005) – where an absence of trust can overwhelm an individuals’ risk perception and result in minimal action despite knowing the dangers of no action – exists and where it is more prevalent. Presence of the social trap will be analysed for willingness to act in favour of climate change mitigation as well as attitude (acceptance) of different types of renewable energy forms. Using probit models with cross-sectional survey data on four developed European countries (UK, France, Germany, and Norway), we find evidence of the social trap in the aggregated data model, which highlights the importance of social trust regarding willingness to act in favour of climate mitigation as there is a high probability of action regardless of risk perception of climate change when social trust is high. In contrast, the same is not true for renewables, as interactions were mainly insignificant, although there were interesting findings involving institutional trust, gender, and country specific results for particular renewables.

Keywords: climate risk, renewables, risk perception, social trap, trust, willingness to act

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Authors: N. V. Nikhil, S. R. Lee, Do Won Park

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Korean peninsula receives about two third of the annual rainfall during summer season. The extreme rainfall pattern due to typhoon and heavy rainfall results in severe mountain disasters among which 55% of them are debris flows, a major natural hazard especially when occurring around major settlement areas. The basic mechanism underlined for this kind of failure is the unsaturated shallow slope failure by reduction of matric suction due to infiltration of water and liquefaction of the failed mass due to generation of positive pore water pressure leading to abrupt loss of strength and commencement of flow. However only an empirical model cannot simulate this complex mechanism. Hence, we have employed an empirical-physical based approach for hazard analysis of debris flow using TRIGRS, a debris flow initiation criteria and DAN3D in mountain Woonmyun, South Korea. Debris flow initiation criteria is required to discern the potential landslides which can transform into debris flow. DAN-3D, being a new model, does not have the calibrated values of rheology parameters for Korean conditions. Thus, in our analysis we have used the recent 2011 debris flow event in mountain Woonmyun san for calibration of both TRIGRS model and DAN-3D, thereafter identifying and predicting the debris flow initiation points, path, run out velocity, and area of spreading for future extreme rainfall based scenarios.

Keywords: debris flow, DAN-3D, extreme rainfall, hazard analysis

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Authors: Warda Ajaz

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This study uses the ‘Community Capitals Framework’ (CCF) to develop a community resilience index that can serve as a useful tool for measuring resilience of communities in diverse contexts and backgrounds. CCF is an important analytical tool to assess holistic community change. This framework identifies seven major types of community capitals: natural, cultural, human, social, political, financial and built, and claims that the communities that have been successful in supporting healthy sustainable community and economic development have paid attention to all these capitals. The framework, therefore, proposes to study the community development through identification of assets in these major capitals (stock), investment in these capitals (flow), and the interaction between these capitals. Capital based approaches have been extensively used to assess community resilience, especially in the context of natural disasters and extreme events. Therefore, this study identifies key indicators for estimating each of the seven capitals through an extensive literature review and then develops an index to calculate a community resilience score. The CCF-based community resilience index presents an innovative way of operationalizing the concept of community resilience and will contribute toward decision-relevant research regarding adaptation and mitigation of community vulnerabilities to climate change-induced, as well as other adverse events.

Keywords: adverse events, community capitals, community resilience, climate change, economic development, sustainability

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Authors: Unity Chipfupa, Aluwani Tagwi, Edilegnaw Wale

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Climate change adaptation studies are challenged by a limited understanding of how non-cognitive factors such as psychological capital affect adaptation decisions of smallholder farmers. The concept of psychological capital has not been fully applied in the empirical literature on climate change adaptation strategies. Hence, the study was meant to assess how psychological capital endowment affects climate change adaptation among smallholder farmers. A multivariate probit regression model was estimated using data collected from 328 smallholder farmers in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The findings indicate that, among other factors, self-confidence and hope or aspirations in farming influence climate change adaptation decisions of smallholders. The psychological capital theory proved to be comprehensive in identifying specific psychological dimensions associated with adaptation decisions. However, the non-alignment of approaches for measuring non-cognitive factors made it difficult to compare results among different studies. In conclusion, the study recommends the need for practical ways for enhancing smallholders’ endowment with key non-cognitive abilities. Researchers should develop and agree on a comprehensive framework for assessing non-cognitive factors critical for climate change adaptation. This will improve the use of positive psychology theories to advance the literature on climate change adaptation. Other key recommendations include targeted support for communities facing higher risks of climate change, improving smallholders’ ability to adapt, promotion of social networks and the inclusion of farming objectives as an important indicator in climate change adaptation research.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, climate change adaptation, psychological capital, multivariate probit, non-cognitive factors.

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Authors: Mohammed A. Alhoot, Rathika A/P Nagarajan

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Climate change and variability are affecting human health and diseases direct or indirectly through many mechanisms. Change in rain pattern, an increase of temperature and humidity are showing an increased trend in Malaysia. This will affect the biological, physical and chemical component of water through different pathways and will enhance the risk of waterborne diseases. Besides, the warm temperature and humid climate provide very suitable conditions for the growth of pathogenic bacteria. This study is intended to highlight the relationship between the climate changes and the incidence food and water associated infections. Incidences of food and water associated infection and climate data were collected from Malaysian Ministry of health and Malaysian Metrological Department respectively. Maximum and minimum temperature showed high correlation with incidence of typhoid, hepatitis A, dysentery, food poisoning (P value <0.05 significant with 2 tailed / 0.5<[r]). Heavy rainfall does not associated with any outbreaks. Climate change brings out new challenges in controlling food and water associated infections. Adaptation strategies should involve all key stakeholders with a strong regional cooperation to prevent and deal with cross-boundary health crises. Moreover, the role of health care personnel at local, state and national levels is important to ensure the success of these programmes. As has been shown herein, climate variability is an important element influencing the food and water associated epidemiology in Malaysia. The results of this study are crucial to implementing climate changes as a factor to reduce any future outbreaks.

Keywords: climate change, typhoid, hepatitis A, dysentery, food poisoning

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Authors: EMMANUEL DWAMENA SASU

Abstract:

International climate policy actions require countries under Paris Agreement to design instruments, provide support (financial and technical), and strengthen institutional capacity with tendency to transcending policy formulation to implementation and sustainability. Changes associated with moisture depletion has been a growing phenomenon; especially in developing countries with projected global GDP drop from 7% to 2% between 2005 and 2050. These developments have potential to adversely affect food production in feeding the growing world population, with corresponding rise in global hunger. Incongruously, there is global absence of a harmonized policy direction; capable of providing the required indicators on climate policies for monitoring sustainability of international agricultural development projects. We conduct extensive review and synthesis on existing limitations on global climate policy governance, agricultural food security and sustainability of international agricultural development projects, and conjecture the role of non-state and sub-national climate stakeholder engagements, and monitoring and evaluation strategies for improved climate policy action for sustaining international agricultural development projects.

Keywords: climate policy, agriculture, development projects, sustainability

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Authors: Gabriel Sunday Ayayia

Abstract:

The paper argues that Ubuntu, as a philosophy that emphasizes the interconnectedness of all living things and importance of community and mutual support, can be used as a social framework to address the problems of climate change and promote environmental sustainability. The research demonstrate that Ubuntu is an ideological concept that encourages collective action on climate change, with the emphasis on individual and collective commitment to taking concrete action to address the problems of climate change. The paper shows that Ubuntu can be employed as a social tool that would enhance the cultivation of shared identity and promote the sense of shared response responsibility to develop the resilience to cope with climate change. Using qualitative and quantitative methodologies, the study establishes the imperativeness of mutual support and cooperation through the lens of Ubuntu as a human-centered scalable response to the debacle of climate change. It recommends that we can build a society that values the environment and promotes sustainable practices by encouraging community involvement in sustainable initiatives by integrating Ubuntu-based principles to our decision-making processes, collaboration, leadership, human agency and governance.

Keywords: ubuntu, climate change, humanity, collective actions, community-based

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Rebecca A. Deek

Abstract:

There is evidence that erratic and extreme weather is becoming a common occurrence, and even predictions that this will become even more frequent and more severe. It also appears that the severity of earthquakes is intensifying. Some observers believe that human conduct has given reasons for such change; others attribute this to environmental and geological cycles. However, as some physicists, environmental scientists, politicians, and others continue to debate the connection between weather events, seismic activities, and climate change, other scientists, engineers, and urban planners are exploring how can our habitat become more responsive and resilient to such phenomena. There are a number of recent instances of nature’s destructive events that provide basis for the development of defensive measures.

Keywords: biomimicry, natural disasters, protection of human lives, resilient infrastructures

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Authors: Laras Tursilowati, Bambang Siswanto

Abstract:

Urban climate change has short- and long-term implications for decision-makers in urban development. The problem for this important metropolitan regional of population and economic value is that there is very little usable information on climate change. Research about urban climate change has been carried out in Bali Indonesia by using Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) that runs with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5. The history data means average data from 1975 to 2005, climate projections with RCP4.5 scenario means average data from 2006 to 2099, and anomaly (urban climate change) is RCP4.5 minus history. The results are the history of temperature between 22.5-27.5 OC, and RCP4.5 between 25.5-29.5 OC. The temperature anomalies can be seen in most of northern Bali that increased by about 1.6 to 2.9 OC. There is a reduced humidity tendency (drier) in most parts of Bali, especially the northern part of Bali, while a small portion in the south increase moisture (wetter). The comfort index of Bali region in history is still relatively comfortable (20-26 OC), but on the condition RCP4.5 there is no comfortable area with index more than 26 OC (hot and dry). This research is expected to be useful to help the government make good urban planning.

Keywords: CCAM, comfort index, IPCC AR5, temperature, urban climate change

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Authors: Dany Ng Cheong Vee, Preethee Nunkoo Gonpot, Noor Sookia

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the application of Extreme Value Theory as a risk measurement tool. The Value at Risk, for a set of indices, from six Stock Exchanges of Frontier markets is calculated using the Peaks over Threshold method and the performance of the model index-wise is evaluated using coverage tests and loss functions. Our results show that 'fat-tailedness' alone of the data is not enough to justify the use of EVT as a VaR approach. The structure of the returns dynamics is also a determining factor. This approach works fine in markets which have had extremes occurring in the past thus making the model capable of coping with extremes coming up (Colombo, Tunisia and Zagreb Stock Exchanges). On the other hand, we find that indices with lower past than present volatility fail to adequately deal with future extremes (Mauritius and Kazakhstan). We also conclude that using EVT alone produces quite static VaR figures not reflecting the actual dynamics of the data.

Keywords: extreme value theory, financial crisis 2008, value at risk, frontier markets

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Authors: Martin Adlington, Boris Ceranic, Sally Shazhad

Abstract:

In an effort to reduce carbon emissions, changes in UK regulations, such as Part L Conservation of heat and power, dictates improved thermal insulation and enhanced air tightness. These changes were a direct response to the UK Government being fully committed to achieving its carbon targets under the Climate Change Act 2008. The goal is to reduce emissions by at least 80% by 2050. Factors such as climate change are likely to exacerbate the problem of overheating, as this phenomenon expects to increase the frequency of extreme heat events exemplified by stagnant air masses and successive high minimum overnight temperatures. However, climate change is not the only concern relevant to overheating, as research signifies, location, design, and occupation; construction type and layout can also play a part. Because of this growing problem, research shows the possibility of health effects on occupants of buildings could be an issue. Increases in temperature can perhaps have a direct impact on the human body’s ability to retain thermoregulation and therefore the effects of heat-related illnesses such as heat stroke, heat exhaustion, heat syncope and even death can be imminent. This review paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of the current literature on the causes and health effects of overheating in buildings and has examined the differing applied assessment approaches used to measure the concept. Firstly, an overview of the topic was presented followed by an examination of overheating research work from the last decade. These papers form the body of the article and are grouped into a framework matrix summarizing the source material identifying the differing methods of analysis of overheating. Cross case evaluation has identified systematic relationships between different variables within the matrix. Key areas focused on include, building types and country, occupants behavior, health effects, simulation tools, computational methods.

Keywords: overheating, climate change, thermal comfort, health

Procedia PDF Downloads 326