Search results for: big data markets

Authors: Mai A. Ibrahim, Mohammed El-Beltagy, Motaz Khorshid

Abstract:

Emerging Markets return distributions have shown significance departure from normality were they are characterized by fatter tails relative to the normal distribution and exhibit levels of skewness and kurtosis that constitute a significant departure from normality. Therefore, the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance is not applicable for emerging markets since it assumes normally-distributed returns (with zero skewness and kurtosis) and a quadratic utility function. Moreover, the Markowitz mean-variance analysis can be used in cases of moderate non-normality and it still provides a good approximation of the expected utility, but it may be ineffective under large departure from normality. Higher moments models and median models have been suggested in the literature for asset allocation in this case. Higher moments models have been introduced to account for the insufficiency of the description of a portfolio by only its first two moments while the median model has been introduced as a robust statistic which is less affected by outliers than the mean. Tail risk measures such as Value-at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) have been introduced instead of Variance to capture the effect of risk. In this research, higher moment models including the Mean-Variance-Skewness (MVS) and Mean-Variance-Skewness-Kurtosis (MVSK) are formulated as single-objective non-linear programming problems (NLP) and median models including the Median-Value at Risk (MedVaR) and Median-Mean Absolute Deviation (MedMAD) are formulated as a single-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems. The higher moment models and median models are compared to some benchmark portfolios and tested on real financial data in the Egyptian main Index EGX30. The results show that all the median models outperform the higher moment models were they provide higher final wealth for the investor over the entire period of study. In addition, the results have confirmed the inapplicability of the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance to the Egyptian stock market as it resulted in very low realized profits.

Keywords: Egyptian stock exchange, emerging markets, higher moment models, median models, mixed-integer linear programming, non-linear programming

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Josip Arneric, Blanka Skrabic Peric

Abstract:

Forecasting of volatility, i.e. returns fluctuations, has been a topic of interest to portfolio managers, option traders and market makers in order to get higher profits or less risky positions. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most common used models are GARCH type models. As standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance, it is difficult the predict volatility using standard GARCH models. Due to practical limitations of these models different approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on Markov switching models. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate because they allow some part of the model to depend on the state of the economy. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility for selected emerging markets.

Keywords: emerging markets, Markov switching, GARCH model, transition probabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 433

Authors: Puwanenthiren Pratheepkanth

Abstract:

The main aim of this paper is to analyse existing literature (1960 -2016) on management accounting revolution by firms in a comparative perspective to see whether any differences between developed and developing countries context. The significant role that management accounting practices play in corporate finance is well established by reams of research articles. The study reveals that there are clear limitations to the literature review, it suggests that a majority of management accounting practices’ studies are focused on developed markets and that there is a scarcity of serious analyses of the situation in emerging markets.

Keywords: developed countries, developing countries, literature review, management accounting practices

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: Maciej Jedrzejczyk, Karolina Marzantowicz

Abstract:

Traditional utility value chain is being transformed during last few years into unbundled markets. Increased distributed generation of energy is one of considerable challenges faced by Smart Grid networks. New sources of energy introduce volatile demand response which has a considerable impact on traditional middlemen in E&U market. The purpose of this research is to search for ways to allow near-real-time electricity markets to transact with surplus energy based on accurate time synchronous measurements. A proposed framework evaluates the use of secure peer-2-peer (P2P) communication and distributed transaction ledgers to provide flat hierarchy, and allow real-time insights into present and forecasted grid operations, as well as state and health of the network. An objective is to achieve dynamic grid operations with more efficient resource usage, higher security of supply and longer grid infrastructure life cycle. Methods used for this study are based on comparative analysis of different distributed ledger technologies in terms of scalability, transaction performance, pluggability with external data sources, data transparency, privacy, end-to-end security and adaptability to various market topologies. An intended output of this research is a design of a framework for safer, more efficient and scalable Smart Grid network which is bridging a gap between traditional components of the energy network and individual energy producers. Results of this study are ready for detailed measurement testing, a likely follow-up in separate studies. New platforms for Smart Grid achieving measurable efficiencies will allow for development of new types of Grid KPI, multi-smart grid branches, markets, and businesses.

Keywords: autonomous agents, Distributed computing, distributed ledger technologies, large scale systems, micro grids, peer-to-peer networks, Self-organization, self-stabilization, smart grids

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Mohamed Ziyaina, Ahlam Rajab, Khadija Alkhweldi, Wafia Algami, Omer Al. Toumi, Barbara Rasco1

Abstract:

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in monitoring heavy metal contamination in food products. Spices can improve the taste of food and can also be a source of many bioactive compounds but can unfortunately, also be contaminated with dangerous materials, potentially heavy metals. This study was conducted to investigate lead (Pb) and cadmium (Cd) contamination in selected spices commonly consumed in Libya including Capsicum frutescens (chili pepper) Piper nigrum, (black pepper), Curcuma longa (turmeric), and mixed spices (HRARAT) which consist of a combination of: Alpinia officinarum, Zingiber officinale and Cinnamomum zeylanicum. Spices were analyzed by atomic absorption spectroscopy after digestion with nitric acid/hydrogen peroxide. The highest level of lead (Pb) was found in Curcuma longa and Capsicum frutescens in wholesale markets (1.05 ± 0.01 mg/kg, 0.96 ± 0.06 mg/kg). Cadmium (Cd) levels exceeded FAO/WHO permissible limit. Curcuma longa and Piper nigrum sold in retail markets had a high concentration of Cd (0.36 ± 0.09, 0.35 ± 0.07 mg/kg, respectively) followed by (0.32 ± 0.04 mg/kg) for Capsicum frutescens. Mixed spices purchased from wholesale markets also had high levels of Cd (0.31 ± 0.08 mg/kg). Curcuma longa and Capsicum frutescens may pose a food safety risk due to high levels of lead and cadmium. Cadmium levels exceeded FAO/WHO recommendations (0.2 ppm) for Piper nigrum, Curcuma longa, and mixed spices (HRARAT).

Keywords: heavy metals, lead, cadmium determination, spice

Procedia PDF Downloads 613

Authors: Rotem Mashkov, Noam Shoval

Abstract:

In an age when a tourist’s gaze is more focused on the daily lives of locals, it is evident that local food markets are being rediscovered. Traditional urban markets succeed in reinventing themselves as a space for consumption, recreation, and culture, enabling authentic experiences and interpersonal interactions with the local culture. Alongside this, the pressure of tourism development may result in commercialization and retail gentrification to the point of losing the sense of local identity. The issue of finding a balance between tourism development and the preservation of unique local features is at the heart of this study and is being tested using the case of the Mahane Yehuda market in Jerusalem. The research question—how merchants respond to tourism development in the Mahane Yehuda food market— focuses on local traders, a group of players who are usually absent from the research arenas, although they influence tourism development as well as influenced by it. Three main research methods were integrated into this study. The first two methods, a survey of articles survey and comparative mapping of the business mix, were used to characterize the changes in the Mahane Yehuda market both consciously and physically. The third research method, involving in-depth interviews with merchants, was used to examine the traders' attitudes and responses to tourism development. The findings indicate that there has been a turnaround in the market image over the past decade and a half. Additionally, there has been a significant physical change in the business mix, reflected by a decline of 15% in the number of stalls selling food products and delicacies. The data from the interviews on the traders’ attitudes towards tourism development were inconclusive; there were disagreements among the traders about the economic contribution of tourism development in relation to their dependence on the tourism industry. However, there was a consensus on the need for authentic elements in the marketplace. The findings of the study also indicate a strong link between the merchants’ response to tourism development and their stall ownership status as the merchant could exercise their position in various ways depending on the possession type.

Keywords: business mix, Jerusalem, local food markets, Mahane Yehuda market, merchants’ attitude, ownership status, retail gentrification, tourism development, traditional urban markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Simon Huston, Ebraheim Lahbash, Ali Parsa

Abstract:

The development of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) into a regional trade, tourism, finance and logistics hub has transformed its real estate markets. However, speculative activity and price volatility remain concerns. UAE residential market values (MV) are exposed to fluctuations in capital flows and migration which in turn are affected by geopolitical uncertainty, oil price volatility, and global investment market sentiment. Internally, a complex interplay between administrative boundaries, land tenure, building quality and evolving location characteristics fragments UAE residential property markets. In short, the UAE Residential Valuation System (UAE-RVS) confronts multiple challenges to collect, filter and analyze relevant information in complex and dynamic spatial and capital markets. A robust (RVS) can mitigate the risk of unhelpful volatility, speculative excess or investment mistakes. The research outlines the institutional, ontological, dynamic, and epistemological issues at play. We highlight the importance of system capabilities, valuation standard salience and stakeholders trust.

Keywords: valuation, property rights, information, institutions, trust, salience

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Aparna Viswanath

Abstract:

Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as non-storability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: financial derivatives, forward, futures, options, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 450

Authors: Gultekin Gurcay

Abstract:

In this paper, effects and responses of stock were analyzed. This analysis was done periodically. The dimensions of the financial crisis impact on the stock market were investigated by GARCH model. In this context, S&P 500 stock market is modeled with DAX, NIKKEI and BIST100. In this way, The effects of the changing in S&P 500 stock market were examined on European and Asian stock markets. Conditional variance coefficient will be calculated through garch model. The scope of the crisis period, the conditional covariance coefficient will be analyzed comparatively.

Keywords: conditional variance coefficient, financial crisis, garch model, stock market

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Astha Sinha, Anjali Kanagali

Abstract:

The United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union, also termed as “Brexit,” took place on June 23, 2016 and immediately had global repercussions on the stock markets of the world. It is however expected to have a greater impact on the Banking sector in the UK. There is a two-fold effect on the earnings of banks which is being expected. First is of the trading activity and investment banking businesses being hit due to global weakness in financial markets. Second is that the banks having a large presence in the European Union will have to restructure their operations in order to cover other European countries as well increase their operating costs. As per the analysis, banks are expected to face rate cuts, bad loans, and tight liquidity. The directives in the Brexit negotiations on the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) will be a major decision to be taken for the Banking sector. New regulations will be required since most of the regulations governing the financial services industry allowing for the cross-border transactions were at the EU level. This paper aims to analyze the effect of Brexit on the UK Banking sector and changes in regulations that are expected due to the same. It shall also lay down the lessons learnt from the 2008 financial crisis and draw a parallel in terms of potential areas to be focused on for revival of the financial sector of Britain.

Keywords: Brexit, Brexit impact on UK, impact of Brexit on banking, impact of Brexit on financial services

Procedia PDF Downloads 380

Authors: Lydia Nkechi Philip

Abstract:

Due to its well-documented commitment to sustainability across diverse global markets, Unilever, a multinational consumer goods powerhouse, serves as a compelling case study. The study's goal is to critically examine Unilever's CSR initiatives, assessing their alignment with international standards and the impact on consumer perceptions and loyalty. The study investigates how Unilever's CSR practices resonate with consumers in various regions using a mixed-methods approach that includes surveys and interviews. The conceptual framework considers the role of sustainable marketing practices as a bridge builder in the CSR-consumer relationship. The findings are expected to provide valuable insights for businesses seeking to navigate the complex terrain of global markets while remaining ethical and sustainable. As consumers place a higher value on socially responsible brands, this study examines Unilever's CSR impact on consumer behavior. The abstract captures the essence of the study, providing a sneak peek at the methodology, key objectives, and anticipated contributions to our understanding of CSR's role in shaping consumer attitudes and loyalty in the global marketplace.

Keywords: Unilever, consumer loyalty, sustainable marketing practices, consumer loyalties

Procedia PDF Downloads 48

Authors: Phumelele Kubheka, Pius Owolawi, Gbolahan Aiyetoro

Abstract:

Twitter is one of the most popular social media platforms where users can share their opinions on different subjects. As of 2010, The Twitter platform generates more than 12 Terabytes of data daily, ~ 4.3 petabytes in a single year. For this reason, Twitter is a great source for big mining data. Many industries such as Telecommunication companies can leverage the availability of Twitter data to better understand their markets and make an appropriate business decision. This study performs topic modeling on Twitter data using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). The obtained results are benchmarked with another topic modeling technique, Latent Semantic Indexing (LSI). The study aims to retrieve topics on a Twitter dataset containing user tweets on South African Telcos. Results from this study show that LSI is much faster than LDA. However, LDA yields better results with higher topic coherence by 8% for the best-performing model represented in Table 1. A higher topic coherence score indicates better performance of the model.

Keywords: big data, latent Dirichlet allocation, latent semantic indexing, telco, topic modeling, twitter

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Priti Bajpai, Mohammed Shibil

Abstract:

This paper utilizes a comparative case study design to examine a regional onion market. The particular case of onion markets is used to understand perishable product supply chains. The site for the study is Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Results from a six-month field study are outlined. In particular, the findings suggest that firms should examine adding additional destinations to their supply chain. Further, we argue that utilizing Dubai as a supply chain hub is in certain cases counterproductive. Implications for food supply chains and regional trade are discussed.

Keywords: supply chains, food markets, onion trade, field study

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Cristian Pauna

Abstract:

Trading the financial markets is a widespread activity today. A large number of investors, companies, public of private funds are buying and selling every day in order to make profit. Algorithmic trading is the prevalent method to make the trade decisions after the electronic trading release. The orders are sent almost instantly by computers using mathematical models. This paper will present a price prediction methodology based on a multi-dimensional neural network. Using the Fisher transform, the neural network will be instructed for a low-latency auto-adaptive process in order to predict the price evolution for the next period of time. The model is designed especially for algorithmic trading and uses the real-time price series. It was found that the characteristics of the Fisher function applied at the nodes scale level can generate reliable trading signals using the neural network methodology. After real time tests it was found that this method can be applied in any timeframe to trade the financial markets. The paper will also include the steps to implement the presented methodology into an automated trading system. Real trading results will be displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the model. As conclusion, the compared results will reveal that the neural network methodology applied together with the Fisher transform at the nodes level can generate a good price prediction and can build reliable trading signals for algorithmic trading.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Yangrae Cho, Jinseok Kim, Yongtae Park

Abstract:

Mobile app service ecosystem has been abruptly emerged, explosively grown, and dynamically transformed. In contrast with product markets in which product sales directly cause increment in firm’s income, customer’s usage is less visible but more valuable in service market. Especially, the market situation with cutthroat competition in mobile app store makes securing and keeping of users as vital. Although a few service firms try to manage their apps’ usage patterns by fitting on S-curve or applying other forecasting techniques, the time series approaches based on past sequential data are subject to fundamental limitation in the market where customer’s attention is being moved unpredictably and dynamically. We therefore propose a new conceptual approach for detecting usage pattern of mobile app service with Hidden Markov Model (HMM) which is based on the dual stochastic structure and mainly used to clarify unpredictable and dynamic sequential patterns in voice recognition or stock forecasting. Our approach could be practically utilized for app service firms to manage their services’ lifecycles and academically expanded to other markets.

Keywords: mobile app service, usage pattern, Hidden Markov Model, pattern detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: Gunnar Oskarsson, Gudjon Helgi Egilsson

Abstract:

Due to globalization, small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) increasingly offer their products and services in foreign markets. The main reasons are either to compensate for a decreased market share in their home market or to exploit opportunities in foreign markets, which are becoming less distant and better accessible than before. International markets are particularly important for companies located in a small economy and offering specialized products. Although more accessible, entering international markets is both expensive and difficult. In order to select the most appropriate markets, it is, therefore, important to gain an insight into the factors that have an impact on success, or potential failure. Although there has been a reasonable volume of research into the theory of internationalization, there is still a need to gain further understanding of the decision-making process of SMEs in small economies and the most important characteristics that distinguish between success and failure. The main objective of this research is to enhance knowledge on the internationalization of SMEs, including the drivers for the decision to internationalize, and the most important factors contributing to success in their internationalization activities. A qualitative approach was found to be most appropriate for this kind of research, with the objective of gaining a deeper understanding and discovering factors which impact a company’s decision-making and potential success. In-depth interviews were conducted with 14 companies in different industries located in Iceland, a country extensively dependent on export revenues. The interviews revealed several factors as drivers of internationalization and, not surprisingly, the most frequently mentioned source of motivation was that the local market is inadequate to maintain a sustainable operation. Good networking relationships were seen as a particular priority for potential success, searching for new markets was mainly carried out through the internet, although sales exhibitions and sales trips were also considered important. When it comes to the final decision as to whether a market should be considered for further analysis, economy, labor cost, legal environment, and cultural barriers were the most common factors to be weighted. The ultimate answer to successful internationalization, however, is largely dependent on a coordinated and experienced management team. The main contribution of this research is offering an insight into factors affecting decision-making in the internationalization process of SMEs, based on the opinion and experience of managers of SMEs in a small economy.

Keywords: internationalization, success factors, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), drivers, decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Christian Neunzig, Simon Fahle, Jürgen Schulz, Matthias Möller, Bernd Kuhlenkötter

Abstract:

Due to increasing cost pressure in global markets, artificial intelligence is becoming a technology that is decisive for competition. Predictive quality enables machinery and plant manufacturers to ensure product quality by using data-driven forecasts via machine learning models as a decision-making basis for test results. The use of cross-process Bosch production data along the value chain of hydraulic valves is a promising approach to classifying the quality characteristics of workpieces.

Keywords: predictive quality, hydraulics, machine learning, classification, supervised learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Mohammed Lawal Danrimi, Ervina Alfan, Mazni Abdullah

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) encourages information-based trading and mitigates investors’ herding practice in emerging EU equity markets. Utilizing a modified non-linear model of cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD), we find that the hypothesis that mandatory IFRS adoption improves the information set of investors and reduces irrational investment behavior may in some cases be incorrect, and the reverse may be true. For instance, with regard to herding concerns, the new reporting benchmark has rather aggravated investors’ herding practice. However, we also find that mandatory IFRS adoption does not appear to be the only instigator of the observed herding practice; national institutional factors, particularly regulatory quality, political stability and control of corruption, also significantly contribute to investors’ herd formation around the new reporting regime. The findings would be of interest to academics, regulators and policymakers in performing a cost-benefit analysis of the so-called better reporting regime, as well as financial statement users who make decisions based on firms’ fundamental variables, treating them as significant indicators of future market movement.

Keywords: equity markets, herding, IFRS, CSAD

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Nini Johana Marin Rodriguez

Abstract:

This paper applies DCC, EWMA and OGARCH models to compare the dynamic correlations between exchange rates, oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets to examine the time-varying conditional correlations to the daily oil prices and index returns in relation to the US dollar/local currency for developed (Canada and Mexico) and emerging Latin American markets (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru). Changes in correlation interactions are indicative of structural changes in market linkages with implications to contagion and interdependence. For each pair of stock price-exchange rate and oil price-US dollar/local currency, empirical evidence confirms of a strengthening negative correlation in the last decade. Methodologies suggest only two events have significatively impact in the countries analyzed: global financial crisis and Europe crisis, both events are associated with shifts of correlations to stronger negative level for most of the pairs analyzed. While, the first event has a shifting effect on mainly emerging members, the latter affects developed members. The identification of these relationships provides benefits in risk diversification and inflation targeting.

Keywords: crude oil, dynamic conditional correlation, exchange rates, interdependence, stock prices

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: Shamsuddeen Muhammad Ahmad

Abstract:

The emergence and operations of Islamic Financial Institutions (IFIs) are being regarded as the new economic and financial pride at the global stage today. Admittedly, therefore, the IFIs has continued to impact positively on the economies of its host countries, especially the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, Asian and Western countries as well as making a steady in-road into the sub-Saharan Africa. Hence, the number of countries that adopted Islamic financial system in Africa has continued to increase. As a matter of fact, this paper examines the role and contributions of Islamic Financial Institutions (IFIs) to the economic growth and financial development of the big emerging markets in the African continent i.e. South Africa, Nigeria, and Egypt. The methods adopted for this study are descriptive, comparative and analytical in nature. Essentially, the findings from this study reveal that the three sampled countries are benefitting from the presence of IFIs in their economies in terms of contributions to economic growth and real sector participation, particularly for Egypt and South Africa. Similarly, they reap from foreign direct investments and economic diversification among others. However, this study recommends that African countries should integrate IFIs as part and parcel of their economic and financial systems, in order to benefit optimally from this new economic phenomenon.

Keywords: Islamic financial services, Africa, emerging markets, development, operation

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: Bel Abed Ines Mariem

Abstract:

Different stock markets keep changing their exchange structure for the only purpose of improving the functioning of their markets. This paper investigates the effects of the transfer from one trading category to another in the Tunisian Stock Exchange on market price and liquidity. The sample consists of 40 securities transferred from call auction to continuous auction and conversely during the period between 2004 and 2013. The methodology used is the event study. Empirical results show an interesting phenomenon observed; stocks transferred to the call system have experienced an improvement on their price and liquidity especially for less liquid ones. However, price and liquidity for stocks transferred from call system to continuous system have decreased.

Keywords: microstructure, call auction, continuous auction, price, liquidity and event study

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Neha Asthana, Vishal Krishna Prasad

Abstract:

Reverse logistics and green supply chain form an interconnected and interwoven network of parameters that contribute to enhancement and incremental exchange in the triple bottom line in the consistently changing and fragmenting markets of the globalizing markets of today. Reverse logistics not only contributes to completing the supply chain in a comprehensive and synchronized manner but also contributes to a significant degree in optimizing green supply chains through procedures such as recycling, refurbishing etc. contributing to waste reduction. Carbon trading, owing to its limitations in the global context and being in a nascent stage seeks plethora of research to determine its full application in synergy with reverse logistics and green supply chain.

Keywords: reverse logistics, carbon trading, carbon emissions, green supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 391

Authors: Christian Bucio Pacheco, Miriam Magnolia Sosa Castro, María Alejandra Cabello Rosales

Abstract:

This paper aims to analyze the contagion effect among the stock markets of the BRIC+M block (Brazil, Russia, India, China plus Mexico). The contagion effect is proved through increasing on dependence parameters during crisis periods. The dependence parameters are estimated through copula approach in a period of time from July 1997 to December 2015. During this period there are instability and calm episodes, allowing to analyze changes in the relations of dependence. Empirical results show strong evidence of time-varying dependence among the BRIC+M markets and an increasing dependence relation during global financial crisis period.

Keywords: BRIC+M Block, Contagion effect, Copula, dependence

Procedia PDF Downloads 319

Authors: Wali Ullah, Muhammad Nishat

Abstract:

The study investigates the extent to which the so called Nelson-Siegel model (DNS) and its extended version that accounts for time varying volatility (DNS-EGARCH) can optimally fit the yield curve and predict its future path in the context of an emerging economy. For the in-sample fit, both models fit the curve remarkably well even in the emerging markets. However, the DNS-EGARCH model fits the curve slightly better than the DNS. Moreover, both specifications of yield curve that are based on the Nelson-Siegel functional form outperform the benchmark VAR forecasts at all forecast horizons. The DNS-EGARCH comes with more precise forecasts than the DNS for the 6- and 12-month ahead forecasts, while the two have almost similar performance in terms of RMSE for the very short forecast horizons.

Keywords: yield curve, forecasting, emerging markets, Kalman filter, EGARCH

Procedia PDF Downloads 513

Authors: Kwaku Damoah

Abstract:

The agricultural sector is characterized by continuous transformation, driven by factors such as demographic shifts, evolving consumer preferences, climate change, and migration trends. This dynamic environment presents complex challenges for key stakeholders including farmers, governments, and investors, who must navigate these changes to achieve optimal investment returns. To effectively predict market trends and uncover promising investment opportunities, a systematic, data-driven approach is essential. This paper introduces the Structural Evolution Index (SEI), a machine learning-based methodology. SEI is specifically designed to analyse long-term trends and forecast the potential of emerging agricultural products for investment. Versatile in application, it evaluates various agricultural metrics such as production, yield, trade, land use, and consumption, providing a comprehensive view of the evolution within agricultural markets. By harnessing data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAOSTAT), this study demonstrates the SEI's capabilities through Comparative Exploratory Analysis and evaluation of international trade in agricultural products, focusing on Malaysia and Singapore. The SEI methodology reveals intricate patterns and transitions within the agricultural sector, enabling stakeholders to strategically identify and capitalize on emerging markets. This predictive framework is a powerful tool for decision-makers, offering crucial insights that help anticipate market shifts and align investments with anticipated returns.

Keywords: agricultural investment, algorithm, comparative exploratory analytics, machine learning, market trends, predictive analytics, structural evolution index

Procedia PDF Downloads 32

Authors: Alloysius C. Ogodo, Ositadinma C. Ugbogu, Uzochukwu G. Ekeleme

Abstract:

Food poisoning and infection by bacteria are of public health significance to both developing and developed countries. Samples of ogi (akamu) prepared from white and yellow variety of maize sold in Uturu and Okigwe were analyzed together with the laboratory prepared ogi for microbial quality using the standard microbiological methods. The analyses showed that both white and yellow variety had total bacterial counts (cfu/g) of 4.0 ×107 and 3.9 x 107 for the laboratory prepared ogi while the commercial ogi had 5.2 x 107 and 4.9 x107, 4.9 x107 and 4.5 x107, 5.4 x107 and 5.0 x107 for Eke-Okigwe, Up-gate and Nkwo-Achara market respectively. The Staphylococcal counts ranged from 2.0 x 102 to 5.0 x102 and 1.0 x 102 to 4.0 x102 for the white and yellow variety from the different markets while Staphylococcal growth was not recorded on the laboratory prepared ogi. The laboratory prepared ogi had no Coliform growth while the commercially prepared ogi had counts of 0.5 x103 to 1.6 x 103 for white variety and 0.3 x 103 to 1.1 x103 for yellow variety respectively. The Lactic acid bacterial count of 3.5x106 and 3.0x106 was recorded for the laboratory ogi while the commercially prepared ogi ranged from 3.2x106 to 4.2x106 (white variety) and 3.0 x106 to 3.9 x106 (yellow). The presence of bacteria isolates from the commercial and laboratory fermented ogi showed that Lactobacillus sp, Leuconostoc sp and Citrobacter sp were present in all the samples, Micrococcus sp and Klebsiella sp were isolated from Eke-Okigwe and ABSU-up-gate markets varieties respectively, E. coli and Staphylococcus sp were present in Eke-Okigwe and Nkwo-Achara markets while Salmonella sp were isolated from the three markets. Hence, there are chances of contracting food borne diseases from commercially prepared ogi. Therefore, there is the need for sanitary measures in the production of fermented cereals so as to minimize the rate of food borne pathogens during processing and storage.

Keywords: ogi, fermentation, bacterial quality, lactic acid bacteria, maize

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Ashenafi Beyene Fanta, Daniel Makina

Abstract:

Economic theory predicts that finance promotes economic growth. Although the finance-growth link is among the most researched areas in financial economics, our understanding of the link between the two is still incomplete. This is caused by, among others, wrong econometric specifications, using weak proxies of financial development, and inability to address the endogeneity problem. Studies on the finance growth link in South Africa consistently report economic growth driving financial development. Early studies found that economic growth drives financial development in South Africa, and recent studies have confirmed this using different econometric models. However, the monetary aggregate (i.e. M2) utilized used in these studies is considered a weak proxy for financial development. Furthermore, the fact that the models employed do not address the endogeneity problem in the finance-growth link casts doubt on the validity of the conclusions. For this reason, the current study examines the finance growth link in South Africa using data for the period 1990 to 2011 by employing a generalized method of moments (GMM) technique that is capable of addressing endogeneity, simultaneity and omitted variable bias problems. Unlike previous cross country and country case studies that have also used the same technique, our contribution is that we account for the development of bond markets and non-bank financial institutions rather than being limited to stock market and banking sector development. We find that bond market development affects economic growth in South Africa, and no similar effect is observed for the bank and non-bank financial intermediaries and the stock market. Our findings show that examination of individual elements of the financial system is important in understanding the unique effect of each on growth. The observation that bond markets rather than private credit and stock market development promotes economic growth in South Africa induces an intriguing question as to what unique roles bond markets play that the intermediaries and equity markets are unable to play. Crucially, our results support observations in the literature that using appropriate measures of financial development is critical for policy advice. They also support the suggestion that individual elements of the financial system need to be studied separately to consider their unique roles in advancing economic growth. We believe that our understanding of the channels through which bond market contribute to growth would be a fertile ground for future research.

Keywords: bond market, finance, financial sector, growth

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

Authors: Ahmed Rashad Harb Riad Ismail

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to study the potential of Dynamic Pricing if deployed by mobile operators and analyse its effects from both operators and consumers side. Furthermore, to conclude, throughout the research study, the recommended conditions for successful Dynamic Pricing deployment, recommended factors identifying the type of markets where Dynamic Pricing can be effective, and proposal for a Dynamic Pricing stakeholders’ framework were presented. Currently, the mobile telecommunications industry is witnessing a dramatic growth rate in the data consumption, being fostered mainly by higher data speed technology as the 4G LTE and by the smart devices penetration rates. However, operators’ revenue from data services lags behind and is decupled from this data consumption growth. Pricing strategy is a key factor affecting this ecosystem. Since the introduction of the 4G LTE technology will increase the pace of data growth in multiples, consequently, if pricing strategies remain constant, then the revenue and usage gap will grow wider, risking the sustainability of the ecosystem. Therefore, this research study is focused on Dynamic Pricing for 4G LTE data services, researching the drivers, benefits and challenges of 4G LTE Dynamic Pricing and the feasibility of its deployment in practice from different perspectives including operators, regulators, consumers, and telecommunications equipment manufacturers point of views.

Keywords: LTE, dynamic pricing, EPC, research

Procedia PDF Downloads 299

Authors: Martin Pellon Consunji

Abstract:

Due to the rise in popularity of Bitcoin and other crypto assets as a store of wealth and speculative investment, there is an ever-growing demand for automated trading tools, such as bots, in order to gain an advantage over the market. Traditionally, trading in the stock market was done by professionals with years of training who understood patterns and exploited market opportunities in order to gain a profit. However, nowadays a larger portion of market participants are at minimum aided by market-data processing bots, which can generally generate more stable signals than the average human trader. The rise in trading bot usage can be accredited to the inherent advantages that bots have over humans in terms of processing large amounts of data, lack of emotions of fear or greed, and predicting market prices using past data and artificial intelligence, hence a growing number of approaches have been brought forward to tackle this task. However, the general limitation of these approaches can still be broken down to the fact that limited historical data doesn’t always determine the future, and that a lot of market participants are still human emotion-driven traders. Moreover, developing markets such as those of the cryptocurrency space have even less historical data to interpret than most other well-established markets. Due to this, some human traders have gone back to the tried-and-tested traditional technical analysis tools for exploiting market patterns and simplifying the broader spectrum of data that is involved in making market predictions. This paper proposes a method which uses neuro evolution techniques on both sentimental data and, the more traditionally human-consumed, technical analysis data in order to gain a more accurate forecast of future market behavior and account for the way both automated bots and human traders affect the market prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This study’s approach uses evolutionary algorithms to automatically develop increasingly improved populations of bots which, by using the latest inflows of market analysis and sentimental data, evolve to efficiently predict future market price movements. The effectiveness of the approach is validated by testing the system in a simulated historical trading scenario, a real Bitcoin market live trading scenario, and testing its robustness in other cryptocurrency and stock market scenarios. Experimental results during a 30-day period show that this method outperformed the buy and hold strategy by over 260% in terms of net profits, even when taking into consideration standard trading fees.

Keywords: neuro-evolution, Bitcoin, trading bots, artificial neural networks, technical analysis, evolutionary algorithms

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Fedil Jemal Ahmed

Abstract:

This conference abstract paper presents a study that aimed to explore the impact of talent management and business skills on performance improvement in mini markets located in Johannesburg and Cape Town, South Africa. Mini markets are small retail stores that play a crucial role in providing essential goods and services to communities. However, due to their small size, they often face significant challenges in terms of resources and management. The study conducted interviews with mini market owners and managers in Johannesburg and Cape Town to understand their approach to talent management, business skills, and their impact on business performance. The results showed that effective talent management practices, including recruitment, training, and retention, along with strong business skills, had a significant positive impact on business performance in mini markets. Furthermore, the study found that the use of technology, such as point of sale systems and inventory management software, can also contribute to business performance improvement in mini markets. The results suggest that mini market owners and managers should prioritize talent management, business skills, and invest in technology to improve their business performance. Comparing the improvements made by mini markets in Johannesburg and Cape Town to those made by others, the study found that the adoption of effective talent management practices and strong business skills were key factors in driving performance improvement. Mini market owners and managers who invested in these areas were better equipped to manage their resources, enhance their customer service, and increase their profitability. When comparing the personal experiences of the fedil jemal who improved their business performance from a small market to a large one, they found that effective talent management practices and strong business skills were crucial in achieving success. Through the adoption of effective talent management practices, the fedil was able to attract and retain top talent, ensuring that the business was managed effectively. Furthermore, the fedil invested in improving their business skills, such as financial management, marketing, and customer service, which helped to increase their revenue and profitability. In terms of technology adoption, the author found that the use of point-of-sale systems and inventory management software were essential in managing their inventory and improving their customer service. By investing in technology, the fedil was able to streamline their operations and enhance their overall business performance. In conclusion, this study provides valuable insights into the importance of talent management, business skills, and technology adoption in improving business performance in mini markets. It highlights the need for mini market owners and managers to prioritize these areas and invest in them to enhance their business performance. The findings of this study have practical implications for mini market owners and managers who are looking to improve their business performance and compete in a highly competitive market. By adopting effective talent management practices, developing strong business skills, and investing in technology, mini market owners and managers can improve their operations and increase their profitability.

Keywords: talent management, business skills, technology adoption, mini markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 71