Search results for: banking union

Authors: Gulden Aykinbaeva, Assem Umirzakova, Assel Makhadiyeva

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The problem of studying of young married couples in connection with a change of social institute of a family and marriage is represented very actual for family consultation, considering a family role in the development of modern society. Results of numerous researchs say that one of difficult in formation and stabilization of a matrimony is the period of a young family. This period is characterized by various processes of integration, adaptation and emotional compatibility of spouses. The young family in it the period endures the first standard crisis which postpones a print for the further development of the family scenario. Emergence new, earlier not existing, systems of values render a huge value on the process of formation of a young family and each of spouses separately. Possibly to solve the set family tasks at the development of the uniform system of the family relations in which socially mature persons capable to consider a family as the creativity of each other act as subjects. Due to the research objective in work the following techniques were used: a questionnaire of satisfaction with V. V. Stolin's marriage and A. N. Volkova's technique directed on detection of coherence of family values and role installations in a married couple, and also content – the analysis. Development of an internal basis of a family on mutual clearing of values is important during the work with married couples. 'The mature view' of the partner in the marriage union provides coherence between the expected and real behavior of the partner that is important for the realization of the purposes of adaptation in a family. For research of communication of the data obtained by means of A. N. Volkova's techniques, V. V. Stolina and content – the analysis, the correlation analysis, with the application of the criterion of Spirmen was used. The analysis of results of the conducted research allowed us to determine the number of consistent patterns: 1. Nature of change of satisfaction with marriage at spouses testifies that the matrimonial relations undergo high-quality changes at different stages of formation of a young family. 2. The matrimonial relations in the course of their development, formation and functioning in young marriage undergo considerable changes on psychological, social and psychological and insignificant — at the psychophysiological and sociocultural levels. The material received by us allows to plan ways of further detailed researches of the development of the matrimonial relations not only in the young marriage but also at further stages of development of a matrimony. We believe that the results received in this research can be almost applied at creation of algorithms of selection of marriage partners, at diagnostics of character and the maintenance of matrimonial disharmonies, at the forecast of stability of marriage and a family.

Keywords: married couples, formation of the young family, psychological consultation, matrimony

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Authors: Jerzy Bański

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Central and Eastern European agriculture is characterized by large spatial variations in the structure of agricultural land and the structure of crops on arable land. In general, field crops predominate among the land used for agriculture. In the southern part of the study area, permanent crops have a relatively large share, which is due to favorable climatic conditions. Clear differences between the north and south of the region concern the structure of crop cultivation. In the north, the cultivation of cereals, mainly wheat, definitely prevails. In the south of the region, on the other hand, the structure of crops is more diverse, as more industrial crops are grown in addition to cereals. The primary cognitive objective of the study is to diagnose and identify the directions of changes in the structure of agricultural land use in the CEE region. Particular attention was paid to the spatial differentiation of this structure and its importance in its formation of various conditions. The analysis included the basic elements of the structure of agricultural land use and the structure of crops on arable land. The decrease in the area of arable land is characteristic of the entire region and is the result of the territorial growth of cities, the development of communications infrastructure (rail and road), and the increase in the rationality of crop production involving, among other things, the exclusion from the cultivation of land with the lowest agro-ecological values and their afforestation. It can be summarized that the directions of changes in the basic categories of agricultural land are related to agro-ecological conditions, which indicates an increase in the rationality of crop production. In countries with lower-quality of agricultural production space, the share of grassland generally increased, while in countries with favorable conditions -mainly soil- the share of arable land increased. As for the structure of field crops, the direction of its changes seems to be mainly due to economic and social reasons. Ownership changes shaping an unfavorable agrarian structure (fragmentation and fragmentation of arable fields) and the process of aging of the rural population resulted in the abandonment of resource- and labor-intensive crops. As a result, the importance of growing fruits and vegetables, and potatoes has declined. The structure of vegetable crops has been greatly influenced by the accession of Central and Eastern European countries to the European Union. This is primarily the increase in the importance of oil crops (rapeseed and sunflower) related to biofuel production. In the case of cereal crops, the main direction of change was the increase in the share of wheat at the expense of other cereal species.

Keywords: agriculture, land use, Central and Eastern Europe, crops, arable land

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Authors: Sandeep Mehmi, Harsh Verma, A. L. Sangal

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Ever since the idea of using computing services as commodity that can be delivered like other utilities e.g. electric and telephone has been floated, the scientific fraternity has diverted their research towards a new area called utility computing. New paradigms like cluster computing and grid computing came into existence while edging closer to utility computing. With the advent of internet the demand of anytime, anywhere access of the resources that could be provisioned dynamically as a service, gave rise to the next generation computing paradigm known as cloud computing. Today, cloud computing has become one of the most aggressively growing computer paradigm, resulting in growing rate of applications in area of IT outsourcing. Besides catering the computational and storage demands, cloud computing has economically benefitted almost all the fields, education, research, entertainment, medical, banking, military operations, weather forecasting, business and finance to name a few. Smart grid is another discipline that direly needs to be benefitted from the cloud computing advantages. Smart grid system is a new technology that has revolutionized the power sector by automating the transmission and distribution system and integration of smart devices. Cloud based smart grid can fulfill the storage requirement of unstructured and uncorrelated data generated by smart sensors as well as computational needs for self-healing, load balancing and demand response features. But, security issues such as confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and privacy need to be resolved for the development of smart grid cloud. In recent years, a number of intrusion prevention techniques have been proposed in the cloud, but hackers/intruders still manage to bypass the security of the cloud. Therefore, precise intrusion detection systems need to be developed in order to secure the critical information infrastructure like smart grid cloud. Considering the success of artificial neural networks in building robust intrusion detection, this research proposes an artificial neural network based model for detecting attacks in smart grid cloud.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, cloud computing, intrusion detection systems, security issues, smart grid

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Authors: Krishna Prasad Sharma

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Nepal’s financial sector has become deeper and wider, and the number and types of financial intermediaries have grown rapidly over the past two decades. However, access to financial services remains limited for many people in many parts of rural Nepal. While financial institutions have been expanding rapidly in an urban area in recent years, the access to the rural poor is excessively inadequate due to financial illiteracy and limited numbers of financial institutions that confined only to the district headquarters. Based on the focus group discussion, semi-structured interview of key people and literature review, this paper aims to examine the supply of and demand for financial services in Nepal and the constraints to increasing access to them, and offers way forward for making the financial sector work for all of Nepal’s people, especially the rural poor. While Nepal’s government has tried to increase access to formal financial services for small businesses and low-income households through directed lending programs for small businesses and low-income households, created specialized wholesale and retail institutions, and lowered market entry requirements, formal financial services are declining, and financial intermediation is stagnating. Supply and demand indicators show that, despite government efforts, formal financial institutions do not serve the needs of most of the Nepalese population. While access to and use of formal financial services are limited, in general, the problem is acute for small businesses and low-income households. Indeed, both access and use are closely correlated with business loan size and household income. This study concludes that banks and microfinance institutions with the use of mobile phones can connect hundreds of millions of unbanked and low-income people, especially rural poor to financial services at low costs. While there are many challenges ahead in expanding the service to rural areas, the mobile financial services will be beneficial that makes payments faster and cheaper, more convenient and accessible to a greater number of senders and recipients in rural areas. In rural areas, clients will benefit from money transfer and other mobile and online services.

Keywords: financial inclusion, financial enabling environment, microfinance, branchless banking, rural poor

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Authors: Emmanuel Dele Balogun

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This paper analyzes, using descriptive statistics and econometrics data which span the period 1981 to 2014 to gauge the effects of trade policy incentives on economic growth in Nigeria. It argues that the provided incentives penalize economic growth during pre-trade liberalization eras, but stimulated a rapid increase in total factor productivity during the post-liberalization period of 2000 to 2014. The trend analysis shows that Nigeria maintained high tariff walls in economic regulation eras which became low in post liberalization era. The protections were in favor of infant industries, which were mainly appendages of multinationals but against imports of competing food and finished consumer products. The trade openness index confirms the undue exposure of Nigeria’s economy to the vagaries of international market shocks; while banking sector recapitalization and new listing of telecommunications companies deepened the financial markets in post-liberalization era. The structure of economic incentives was biased in favor of construction, trade and services, but against the real sector despite protectionist policies. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) estimates show that the Nigerian economy suffered stagnation in pre-liberalization eras, but experienced rapid growth rates in post-liberalization eras. The regression results relating trade policy incentives to TFP growth rate yielded a significant but negative intercept suggesting that a non-interventionist policy could be detrimental to economic progress, while protective tariff which limits imports of competing products could spur productivity gains in domestic import substitutes beyond factor growth with market liberalization. The main constraint to the effectiveness of trade policy incentives is the failure of benefiting industries to leverage on the domestic factor endowments of the nation. This paper concludes that there is the need to review the current economic transformation strategies urgently with a view to provide policymakers with a better understanding of the most viable options that could make for rapid success.

Keywords: economic growth, macroeconomic incentives, total factor productivity, trade policies

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Authors: Serpil Kilic, Ihsan Burak Cam, Murat Kilic, Timur Tongur

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Interest in the lead (Pb) has considerably increased due to knowledge about the potential toxic effects of this element, recently. Exposure to heavy metals above the acceptable limit affects human health. Indeed, Pb is accumulated through food chains up to toxic concentrations; therefore, it can pose an adverse potential threat to human health. A sensitive and reliable method for determination of Pb element in red pepper were improved in the present study. Samples (33 red pepper products having different brands) were purchased from different markets in Turkey. The selected method validation criteria (linearity, Limit of Detection, Limit of Quantification, recovery, and trueness) demonstrated. Recovery values close to 100% showed adequate precision and accuracy for analysis. According to the results of red pepper analysis, all of the tested lead element in the samples was determined at various concentrations. A Perkin- Elmer ELAN DRC-e model ICP-MS system was used for detection of Pb. Organic red pepper was used to obtain a matrix for all method validation studies. The certified reference material, Fapas chili powder, was digested and analyzed, together with the different sample batches. Three replicates from each sample were digested and analyzed. The results of the exposure levels of the elements were discussed considering the scientific opinions of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), which is the European Union’s (EU) risk assessment source associated with food safety. The Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) was described by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for the calculation of potential health risks associated with long-term exposure to chemical pollutants. THQ value contains intake of elements, exposure frequency and duration, body weight and the oral reference dose (RfD). If the THQ value is lower than one, it means that the exposed population is assumed to be safe and 1 < THQ < 5 means that the exposed population is in a level of concern interval. In this study, the THQ of Pb was obtained as < 1. The results of THQ calculations showed that the values were below one for all the tested, meaning the samples did not pose a health risk to the local population. This work was supported by The Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit of Akdeniz University. Project Number: FBA-2017-2494.

Keywords: lead analyses, red pepper, risk assessment, daily exposure

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Authors: Matjaž Šraml, Marko Renčelj, Tomaž Tollazzi, Chiara Gruden

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Road safety is a worldwide issue with numerous and heterogeneous factors influencing it. On the side, driver state – comprising distraction/inattention, fatigue, drowsiness, extreme emotions, and socio-cultural factors highly affect road safety. On the other side, the vehicle state has an important role in mitigating (or not) the road risk. Finally, the road environment is still one of the main determinants of road safety, defining driving task complexity. At the same time, thanks to technological development, a lot of detailed data is easily available, creating opportunities for the detection of driver state, vehicle characteristics and road conditions and, consequently, for the design of ad hoc interventions aimed at improving driver performance, increase awareness and mitigate road risks. This is the challenge faced by the i-DREAMS project. i-DREAMS, which stands for a smart Driver and Road Environment Assessment and Monitoring System, is a 3-year project funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program. It aims to set up a platform to define, develop, test and validate a ‘Safety Tolerance Zone’ to prevent drivers from getting too close to the boundaries of unsafe operation by mitigating risks in real-time and after the trip. After the definition and development of the Safety Tolerance Zone concept and the concretization of the same in an Advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) platform, the system was tested firstly for 2 months in a driving simulator environment in 5 different countries. After that, naturalistic driving studies started for a 10-month period (comprising a 1-month pilot study, 3-month baseline study and 6 months study implementing interventions). Currently, the project team has approved a common evaluation approach, and it is developing the assessment of the usage and outcomes of the i-DREAMS system, which is turning positive insights. The i-DREAMS consortium consists of 13 partners, 7 engineering universities and research groups, 4 industry partners and 2 partners (European Transport Safety Council - ETSC - and POLIS cities and regions for transport innovation) closely linked to transport safety stakeholders, covering 8 different countries altogether.

Keywords: advanced driver assistant systems, driving simulator, safety tolerance zone, traffic safety

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Authors: Carol Howells, Edwin Parks

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This paper explores the existing and evolving constitutional arrangements within the United Kingdom and within the wider international context of the EU. It considers the nature of an ‘English’ constitution and internal colonialism that underpins it. The debates over the UK’s exit from the EU have been many however the constitutional position of the devolved nations (Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales) is little understood or explored. Their constitutional position has been touched upon in academic debate (but not widely) and is only now beginning to receive attention. The paper considers the constitutional role of the legislatures within the UK; the UK Parliament Bill for exiting the European Union and provides a commentary on the Brexit process in relation to constitutional arrangements within the UK and EU. Questions arise over the constitutional framework and, whether, having delegated competencies, the UK Parliament can now legislate in relation to delegated competencies without the consent. The Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly are a permanent and a fixed feature of the UK’s constitution, but their position is set within the traditional concept of the ‘English’ constitution. The current situation is opaque and complex and raises significant constitutional questions. In relation to exit from the EU two of the nations did not vote in favour of Brexit and the third is in receipt of an inequitable funding settlement. Questions arise as to whether the work of modernising the UK’s constitution over the past twenty years in recognising the Nations and governments within those nations is now being unpicked and whether the piecemeal and unequal process of devolution and new constitutional arrangements hold weight. Questions of democratic legitimacy arise throughout. An advisory referendum (where no definition of the EU was provided) in which two of the four nations voted to leave the EU and two voted to remain has led the UK Government negotiating a wholesale exit from the EU based on ‘English’ constitutional law principles. Previous constitutional referendums in relation to devolution within the UK have been treated differently. Within the EU questions are being raised in relation to the focus on member states. The goals of the EU mention member countries and its purpose is seen as being to promote greater social, political and economic harmony among the nations of Europe. The emphasis on member states is proving challenging and has led flawed processes. Scrutiny of legislative proposals, historical developments, and social commentary reveal distinct national identities within the UK. Analysis of the debate, legislation and case law surrounding the exiting process from the EU reveal a muddled picture of a constitution in crisis and significant challenges to principles underpinning the rule of law. Suggestions are made for future reforms and a move towards new constitutional arrangements beyond the current ‘English’ constitution.

Keywords: English, constitution, parliament, devolved

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Authors: Adejoke Omowumi Adediran

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The commitment of African states to liberalise civil aviation in Africa through the implementation of the Yamoussoukro Decision of 1999 was reiterated in 2015 at the African Union Assembly meeting. A declaration was made by African Heads of government at the meeting to ensure the immediate implementation of the decision towards the establishment of a Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) by 2017. A SAATM will imply among others, a removal of all commercial restrictions for African airlines in Africa; access to any route in Africa by African airlines without any required permit or authorisation; and a common set of regulations for airlines in African member states. As the envisioned 2017 date for launching the SAATM could not be met, a new date of January 2018 has been set. The lack of political will by African States, however, remains a prominent challenge to the realisation of the SAATM. As at June 2017, only twenty-one states had signed the commitment to actualise the decision creating the SAATM. In actualisation of the SAATM, a regulatory framework has been established to efficiently manage the new African airline industry, and regulatory texts have been adopted as part of the legal regime. This legal regime is to regulate both interstate and domestic operations. Airlines in Nigeria are currently faced with certain challenges which ultimately affect their effectiveness and passengers as well do not enjoy utmost customer satisfaction with services rendered by the airlines. Although Nigeria has demonstrated support for the SAATM since 2015, as Nigeria alongside ten other states, signed the initial commitment, whether or not SAATM will eventually be beneficial to airlines and passengers has become an issue in the light of the challenges of the Nigerian airline industry. Remarkably, the benefit of the SAATM is to a large extent ultimately determined by its legal framework. Using doctrinal research, this paper examines the legal implications of the SAATM on airlines and passengers in Nigeria. This paper analyses the legal framework of SAATM and juxtaposes this with the particular issues affecting airlines and passengers in Nigeria such as financial difficulties on the part of airlines and consumer protection as regards passengers. Among others, it can be asserted that the legal regime affords an opportunity for business expansion and creates a fair environment for competition. This is beneficial not only to the airlines but to passengers as well. In addition, in the interest of passengers, consumer rights are prescribed, and the regulations also cater for situations where airlines interrupt their services, as losses arising from these situations will be mitigated. There is indeed no doubt that the SAATM will be of great utility to both airlines and passengers in Nigeria.

Keywords: airlines, civil aviation, competition, consumer protection, passengers, single African air transport market, yamoussoukro decision

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Authors: Ernest Tambo, Ghislaine Madjou, Jeanne Y. Ngogang, Shenglan Tang, Zhou XiaoNong

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Implementing national to community-based 'One Health' surveillance approach for human, animal and environmental consequences mitigation offers great opportunities and value-added in sustainable development and wellbeing. 'One Health' surveillance approach global partnerships, policy commitment and financial investment are much needed in addressing the evolving threats and epidemics crises mitigation in African countries. The paper provides insights onto how China-Africa health development cooperation in promoting “One Health” surveillance approach in response advocacy and mitigation. China-Africa health development initiatives provide new prospects in guiding and moving forward appropriate and evidence-based advocacy and mitigation management approaches and strategies in attaining Universal Health Coverage (UHC) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Early and continuous quality and timely surveillance data collection and coordinated information sharing practices in malaria and other diseases are demonstrated in Comoros, Zanzibar, Ghana and Cameroon. Improvements of variety of access to contextual sources and network of data sharing platforms are needed in guiding evidence-based and tailored detection and response to unusual hazardous events. Moreover, understanding threats and diseases trends, frontline or point of care response delivery is crucial to promote integrated and sustainable targeted local, national “One Health” surveillance and response approach needs implementation. Importantly, operational guidelines are vital in increasing coherent financing and national workforce capacity development mechanisms. Strengthening participatory partnerships, collaboration and monitoring strategies in achieving global health agenda effectiveness in Africa. At the same enhancing surveillance data information streams reporting and dissemination usefulness in informing policies decisions, health systems programming and financial mobilization and prioritized allocation pre, during and post threats and epidemics crises programs strengths and weaknesses. Thus, capitalizing on “One Health” surveillance and response approach advocacy and mitigation implementation is timely in consolidating Africa Union 2063 agenda and Africa renaissance capabilities and expectations.

Keywords: Africa, one health approach, surveillance, response

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Authors: Hasna Elalaoui Elabdallaoui, Abdelaziz Elfazziki, Mohamed Sadgal

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Outlines: The social economy is a moral approach to solidarity applied to the projects’ development. To reconcile economic activity and social equity, crowdfunding is as an alternative means of financing social projects. Several collaborative blockchain platforms exist. It eliminates the need for a central authority or an inconsiderate middleman. Also, the costs for a successful crowdfunding campaign are reduced, since there is no commission to be paid to the intermediary. It improves the transparency of record keeping and delegates authority to authorities who may be prone to corruption. Objectives: The objectives are: to define a software infrastructure for projects’ participatory financing within a social and solidarity economy, allowing transparent, secure, and fair management and to have a financial mechanism that improves financial inclusion. Methodology: The proposed methodology is: crowdfunding platforms literature review, financing mechanisms literature review, requirements analysis and project definition, a business plan, Platform development process and implementation technology, and testing an MVP. Contributions: The solution consists of proposing a new approach to crowdfunding based on Islamic financing, which is the principle of Mousharaka inspired by Islamic financing, which presents a financial innovation that integrates ethics and the social dimension into contemporary banking practices. Conclusion: Crowdfunding platforms need to secure projects and allow only quality projects but also offer a wide range of options to funders. Thus, a framework based on blockchain technology and Islamic financing is proposed to manage this arbitration between quality and quantity of options. The proposed financing system, "Musharaka", is a mode of financing that prohibits interests and uncertainties. The implementation is offered on the secure Ethereum platform as investors sign and initiate transactions for contributions using their digital signature wallet managed by a cryptography algorithm and smart contracts. Our proposal is illustrated by a crop irrigation project in the Marrakech region.

Keywords: social economy, Musharaka, blockchain, smart contract, crowdfunding

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Authors: Celine Jaspers

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The Belgian legal system is slowly evolving to mandatory mediation to promote ADR. One of the reasons for this evolution is the lack of use of alternative methods in relation to their possible benefits. Especially in divorce cases, ADR can play a beneficial role in resolving disputes, since the emotional component is very much present. When children are involved, a solution provided by the parent may be more adapted to the child’s best interest than a court order. In the first part, the lack of use of voluntary ADR and the evolution toward mandatory ADR in Belgium will be indicated by sources of legislation, jurisprudence and social-scientific sources, with special attention to divorce cases. One of the reasons is lack of knowledge on ADR, despite the continuing efforts of the Belgian legislator to promote ADR. One of the last acts of ADR-promotion, was the implementation of an Act in 2018 which gives the judge the possibility to refer parties to mediation if at least one party wants to during the judicial procedure. This referral is subject to some conditions. The parties will be sent to a private mediator, recognized by the Federal Mediation Commission, to try to resolve their conflict. This means that at least one party can be mandated to try mediation (indicated as “semi-mandatory mediation”). The main goal is to establish the factors and elements that Belgium has to take into account in their further development of mandatory ADR, with consideration of the human rights perspective and the EU perspective. Furthermore it is also essential to detect some dangerous pitfalls other systems have encountered with their process design. Therefore, the second part, the comparative component, will discuss the existing framework in California, USA to establish the necessary elements, possible pitfalls and considerations the Belgian legislator can take into account when further developing the framework of mandatory ADR. The contrasting and functional method will be used to create key elements and possible pitfalls, to help Belgium improve its existing framework. The existing mandatory system in California has been in place since 1981 and is still up and running, and can thus provide valuable lessons and considerations for the Belgian system. Thirdly, the key elements from a human rights perspective and from a European Union perspective (e.g. the right to access to a judge, the right to privacy) will be discussed too, since the basic human rights and European legislation and jurisprudence play a significant part in Belgian legislation as well. The main sources for this part will be the international and European treaties, legislation, jurisprudence and soft law. In the last and concluding part, the paper will list the most important elements of a mandatory ADR-system design with special attention to the dangers of these elements (e.g. to include or exclude domestic violence cases in the mandatory ADR-framework and the consequences thereof), and with special attention for the necessary the international and European rights, prohibitions and guidelines.

Keywords: Belgium, divorce, framework, mandatory ADR

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Authors: Layal Mansour

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The aim of this paper is to identify whether oil price volatility or geopolitical risks can predict future financial stress periods or economic recessions in Kuwait. We construct the first Financial Stress Index for Kuwait (FSIK) that includes informative vulnerable indicators of the main financial sectors: the banking sector, the equities market, and the foreign exchange market. The study covers the period from 2000 to 2020, so it includes the two recent most devastating world economic crises with oil price fluctuation: the Covid-19 pandemic crisis and Ukraine-Russia War. All data are taken by the central bank of Kuwait, the World Bank, IMF, DataStream, and from Federal Reserve System St Louis. The variables are computed as the percentage growth rate, then standardized and aggregated into one index using the variance equal weights method, the most frequently used in the literature. The graphical FSIK analysis provides detailed information (by dates) to policymakers on how internal financial stability depends on internal policy and events such as government elections or resignation. It also shows how monetary authorities or internal policymakers’ decisions to relieve personal loans or increase/decrease the public budget trigger internal financial instability. The empirical analysis under vector autoregression (VAR) models shows the dynamic causal relationship between the oil price fluctuation and the Kuwaiti economy, which relies heavily on the oil price. Similarly, using vector autoregression (VAR) models to assess the impact of the global geopolitical risks on Kuwaiti financial stability, results reveal whether Kuwait is confronted with or sheltered from geopolitical risks. The Financial Stress Index serves as a guide for macroprudential regulators in order to understand the weakness of the overall Kuwaiti financial market and economy regardless of the Kuwaiti dinar strength and exchange rate stability. It helps policymakers predict future stress periods and, thus, address alternative cushions to confront future possible financial threats.

Keywords: Kuwait, financial stress index, causality test, VAR, oil price, geopolitical risks

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Authors: Christopher Pullen

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This paper explores the significance of British cinema in the late 1950s and early 1960s as offering a renaissance of realist discourse, in the representation of everyday social issues. Offering a rejection of Hollywood cinema and the superficially of the middle classes, these ‘kitchen sink dramas’ often set within modest and sometimes squalid domestic and social environments, focused on the political struggle of the disenfranchised examining poverty, the oppressed and the outsider. While films like Look Back in Anger and Room at the Top looked primarily at male heterosexual subjectivity, films like A Taste of Honey and Victim focused on female and queer male narratives. Framing the urban landscape as a discursive architectural arena, representing basic living conditions and threatening social worlds, these iconic films established new storytelling processes for the outsider. This paper examines this historical context foregrounding the contemporary films Beautiful Thing (Hettie Macdonald, 1996), Weekend (Andrew Haigh, 2011) and Pride (Marcus Warchus, 2014), while employing the process of textual analysis in relation to theories of affect, defined by writers such as Lisa U. Marks and Sara Ahmed. Considering both romance narratives and public demonstrations of unity, where the queer ‘affective’ body is placed within architectural and social space, Beautiful Thing tells the story of gay male teenagers falling in love despite oppression from family and school, Weekend examines a one-night stand between young gay men and the unlikeliness of commitment, but the drive for sensitivity, and Pride foregrounds an historical relationship between queer youth activists and the miner’s union, who were on strike between 1984-5. These films frame the queer ‘affective’ body within politicized public space, evident in lower class men’s working clubs, tenement housing and brutal modernist tower blocks, focusing on architectural features such as windows, doorways and staircases, relating temporality, desire and change. Through such an examination a hidden history of gay male performativity is revealed, framing the potential of contemporary cinema to focus on the context of the outsider in encouraging social change.

Keywords: queer, affect, cinema, architecture, life chances

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Authors: Claudia García-García, Catalina B. García-García, Román Salmerón-Gómez

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Much economic-environmental research includes the analysis of possible interactions by using Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA), which is a specific application of multiple linear regression analysis. This methodology allows analyzing how the effect of one of the independent variables is moderated by a second independent variable by adding a cross-product term between them as an additional explanatory variable. Due to the very specification of the methodology, the moderated factor is often highly correlated with the constitutive terms. Thus, great multicollinearity problems arise. The appearance of strong multicollinearity in a model has important consequences. Inflated variances of the estimators may appear, there is a tendency to consider non-significant regressors that they probably are together with a very high coefficient of determination, incorrect signs of our coefficients may appear and also the high sensibility of the results to small changes in the dataset. Finally, the high relationship among explanatory variables implies difficulties in fixing the individual effects of each one on the model under study. These consequences shifted to the moderated analysis may imply that it is not worth including an interaction term that may be distorting the model. Thus, it is important to manage the problem with some methodology that allows for obtaining reliable results. After a review of those works that applied the MRA among the ten top journals of the field, it is clear that multicollinearity is mostly disregarded. Less than 15% of the reviewed works take into account potential multicollinearity problems. To overcome the issue, this work studies the possible application of recent methodologies to MRA. Particularly, the raised regression is analyzed. This methodology mitigates collinearity from a geometrical point of view: the collinearity problem arises because the variables under study are very close geometrically, so by separating both variables, the problem can be mitigated. Raise regression maintains the available information and modifies the problematic variables instead of deleting variables, for example. Furthermore, the global characteristics of the initial model are also maintained (sum of squared residuals, estimated variance, coefficient of determination, global significance test and prediction). The proposal is implemented to data from countries of the European Union during the last year available regarding greenhouse gas emissions, per capita GDP and a dummy variable that represents the topography of the country. The use of a dummy variable as the moderator is a special variant of MRA, sometimes called “subgroup regression analysis.” The main conclusion of this work is that applying new techniques to the field can improve in a substantial way the results of the analysis. Particularly, the use of raised regression mitigates great multicollinearity problems, so the researcher is able to rely on the interaction term when interpreting the results of a particular study.

Keywords: multicollinearity, MRA, interaction, raise

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Authors: Manzoor Ahmad

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The rapid advancement of mobile technology has transformed the way businesses engage with consumers, making mobile marketing a crucial strategy for organizations worldwide. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the adoption of mobile marketing in Pakistan, aiming to provide valuable insights into the current landscape, challenges, and opportunities in this emerging market. To achieve this objective, a mixed-methods approach was employed, combining quantitative surveys and qualitative interviews with industry experts, marketers, and consumers. The study encompassed a diverse range of sectors, including retail, telecommunications, banking, and e-commerce, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of mobile marketing practices across different industries. The findings indicate that mobile marketing has gained significant traction in Pakistan, with a growing number of organizations recognizing its potential for reaching and engaging with consumers effectively. Factors such as increasing smartphone penetration, affordable data plans, and the rise of social media usage have contributed to the widespread adoption of mobile marketing strategies. However, several challenges and barriers to mobile marketing adoption were identified. These include issues related to data privacy and security, limited digital literacy among consumers, inadequate infrastructure, and cultural considerations. Additionally, the study highlights the need for tailored and localized mobile marketing strategies to address the diverse cultural and linguistic landscape of Pakistan. Based on the insights gained from the study, practical recommendations are provided to support organizations in optimizing their mobile marketing efforts in Pakistan. These recommendations encompass areas such as consumer targeting, content localization, mobile app development, personalized messaging, and measurement of mobile marketing effectiveness. This research contributes to the existing literature on mobile marketing adoption in developing countries and specifically sheds light on the unique dynamics of the Pakistani market. It serves as a valuable resource for marketers, practitioners, and policymakers seeking to leverage mobile marketing strategies in Pakistan, ultimately fostering the growth and success of businesses operating in this region.

Keywords: mobile marketing, digital marketing, mobile advertising, adoption of mobile marketing

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Authors: Dennis Kreutzer, Sarah Müller-Abdelrazeq, Ingrid Isenhardt

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Resource scarcity, energy transition and the planned climate neutrality pose enormous challenges for manufacturing companies. In order to achieve these goals and a holistic sustainable development, the European Union has listed the circular economy as part of the Circular Economy Action Plan. In addition to a reduction in resource consumption, reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and a reduced volume of waste, the principles of the circular economy also offer enormous economic potential for companies, such as the generation of new circular business models. However, many manufacturing companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, do not have the necessary capacity to plan their transformation. They need support and strategies on the path to circular transformation, because this change affects not only production but also the entire company. Maturity models offer an approach, as they enable companies to determine the current status of their transformation processes. In addition, companies can use the models to identify transformation strategies and thus promote the transformation process. While maturity models are established in other areas, e.g. IT or project management, only a few circular economy maturity models can be found in the scientific literature. The aim of this paper is to analyse the identified maturity models of the circular economy through a systematic literature review (SLR) and, besides other aspects, to check their completeness as well as their quality. Since the terms "maturity model" and "readiness model" are often used to assess the transformation process, this paper considers both types of models to provide a more comprehensive result. For this purpose, circular economy maturity models at the company (micro) level were identified from the literature, compared, and analysed with regard to their theoretical and methodological structure. A specific focus was placed, on the one hand, on the analysis of the business units considered in the respective models and, on the other hand, on the underlying metrics and indicators in order to determine the individual maturity level of the entire company. The results of the literature review show, for instance, a significant difference in the holism of their assessment framework. Only a few models include the entire company with supporting areas outside the value-creating core process, e.g. strategy and vision. Additionally, there are large differences in the number and type of indicators as well as their metrics. For example, most models often use subjective indicators and very few objective indicators in their surveys. It was also found that there are rarely well-founded thresholds between the levels. Based on the generated results, concrete ideas and proposals for a research agenda in the field of circular economy maturity models are made.

Keywords: maturity model, circular economy, transformation, metric, assessment

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Theofanis Fotis, Nineta Polemi

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The European Union (EU) directive Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act in Article 9 requires that risk management of AI systems includes both technical and human oversight, while according to NIST_AI_RFM (Appendix C) and ENISA AI Framework recommendations, claim that further research is needed to understand the current limitations of social threats and human-AI interaction. AI threats within social contexts significantly affect the security and trustworthiness of the AI systems; they are interrelated and trigger technical threats as well. For example, lack of explainability (e.g. the complexity of models can be challenging for stakeholders to grasp) leads to misunderstandings, biases, and erroneous decisions. Which in turn impact the privacy, security, accountability of the AI systems. Based on the NIST four fundamental criteria for explainability it can also classify the explainability threats into four (4) sub-categories: a) Lack of supporting evidence: AI systems must provide supporting evidence or reasons for all their outputs. b) Lack of Understandability: Explanations offered by systems should be comprehensible to individual users. c) Lack of Accuracy: The provided explanation should accurately represent the system's process of generating outputs. d) Out of scope: The system should only function within its designated conditions or when it possesses sufficient confidence in its outputs. Biases may also stem from historical data reflecting undesired behaviors. When present in the data, biases can permeate the models trained on them, thereby influencing the security and trustworthiness of the of AI systems. Social related AI threats are recognized by various initiatives (e.g., EU Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy AI), standards (e.g. ISO/IEC TR 24368:2022 on AI ethical concerns, ISO/IEC AWI 42105 on guidance for human oversight of AI systems) and EU legislation (e.g. the General Data Protection Regulation 2016/679, the NIS 2 Directive 2022/2555, the Directive on the Resilience of Critical Entities 2022/2557, the EU AI Act, the Cyber Resilience Act). Measuring social threats, estimating the risks to AI systems associated to these threats and mitigating them is a research challenge. In this paper it will present the efforts of two European Commission Projects (FAITH and THEMIS) from the HorizonEurope programme that analyse the social threats by building cyber-social exercises in order to study human behaviour, traits, cognitive ability, personality, attitudes, interests, and other socio-technical profile characteristics. The research in these projects also include the development of measurements and scales (psychometrics) for human-related vulnerabilities that can be used in estimating more realistically the vulnerability severity, enhancing the CVSS4.0 measurement.

Keywords: social threats, artificial Intelligence, mitigation, social experiment

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Authors: Tjipta Lesmana

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Terrorist attacks quickly penetrated Indonesia following the downfall of Soeharto regime in May 1998. Reform era was officially proclaimed. Indonesia turned to 'heaven state' from 'authoritarian state'. For the first time since 1966, the country experienced a full-scale freedom of expression, including freedom of the press, and heavy acknowledgement of human rights practice. Some religious extremists previously run away to neighbor countries to escape from security apparatus secretly backed home. Quickly they consolidated the power to continue their long aspiration and dream to establish 'Shariah Indonesia', Indonesia based on Khilafah ideology. Bali bombings I which shocked world community occurred on 12 October 2002 in the famous tourist district of Kuta on the Indonesian island of Bali, killing 202 people (including 88 Australians, 38 Indonesians, and people from more than 20 other nationalities). In the capital, Jakarta, successive bombings were blasted in Marriott hotel, Australian Embassy, residence of the Philippine Ambassador and stock exchange office. A 'drunken Indonesia' is far from ready to combat nationwide sudden and massive terrorist attacks. Police Detachment 88 (Densus 88) Indonesian counter-terrorism squad, was quickly formed following 2002 Bali Bombing. Anti-terrorism Provisional Act was immediately erected, as well, due to urgent need to fight terrorism. Some Bali bombings criminals were deadly executed after sentenced by the court. But a series of terrorist suicide attacks and another Bali bombings (the second one) in Bali, again, shocked world community. Terrorism network is undoubtedly spreading nationwide. Suspicion is high that they had close connection with Al Qaeda’s groups. Even 'Afghanistan alumni' and 'Syria alumni' returned to Indonesia to back up the local mujahidins in their fights to topple Indonesia constitutional government and set up Islamic state (Khilafah). Supported by massive aids from friendly nations, especially Australia and United States, Indonesia launched large scale operations to crush terrorism consisted of various radical groups such as JAD, JAS, and JAADI. Huge energy, money, and souls were dedicated. Terrorism is, however, persistently entrenched. High ranking officials from Detachment 88 squad and military intelligence believe that terrorism is still one the most deadly enemy of Indonesia.

Keywords: counter-radicalization, de-radicalization, Khalifah, Union State, Al Qaedah, ISIS

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Authors: Shoaib Alvi

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Mahatma Gandhi was said “Man becomes great exactly in the degree in which he works for the welfare of his fellow-men”. Labor welfare is an important fact of Industrial relations. With the growth of industrialization, mechanization and computerization, labor welfare measures have got the fillip. The author believes that Labor welfare includes provisions of various facilities and amenities in and around the work place for the better life of the workers. Labor welfare is, thus, one of the major determinants of industrial relations. It comprises all human efforts the work place for the better life of the worker. The social and economic aspects of the life of the workers have the direct influence on the social and economic development of the nation. Author thinks that there could be multiple objectives in having, labor welfare programme the concern for improving the lot of the workers, a philosophy of humanitarianism or internal social responsibility, a feeling of concern, and caring by providing some of life's basic amenities, besides the basic pay packet. Such caring is supposed to build a sense of loyalty on the part of the employee towards the organization. The author thinks that Social security is the security that the State furnishes against the risks which an individual of small means cannot today, stand up to by himself even in private combination with his fellows. Social security is one of the pillars on which the structure of a welfare state rests, and it constitutes the hardcore of social policy in most countries. It is through social security measures that the state attempts to maintain every citizen at a certain prescribed level below which no one is allowed to fall. According to author, social assistance is a method according to which benefits are given to the needy persons, fulfilling the prescribed conditions, by the government out of its own resources. Author has analyzed and studied the relationship between the labor welfare social security and also studied various international conventions on provisions of social security by International Authorities like United Nations, International Labor Organization, and European Union etc. Author has also studied and analyzed concept of labor welfare and social security schemes of many countries around the globe ex:- Social security in Australia, Social security in Switzerland, Social Security (United States), Mexican Social Security Institute, Welfare in Germany, Social security schemes of India for labor welfare in both organized sector and unorganized sector. In this Research paper, Author has done the study on the Conceptual framework of the Labour Welfare. According to author, labors are highly perishable, which need constant welfare measures for their upgradation and performance in this field. At last author has studied role of trade unions and labor welfare unions and other institutions working for labor welfare, in this research paper author has also identified problems these Unions and labor welfare bodies’ face and tried to find out solutions for the problems and also analyzed various steps taken by the government of various countries around the globe.

Keywords: labor welfare, internal social responsibility, social security, international conventions

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Authors: Margarida Porfírio Tomás, Paula Pereira, José Manuel Palma Oliveira

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The decline in employment rates across sectors like industry and construction is exacerbated by an aging workforce. This has far-reaching implications for the economy, including skills gaps, labour shortages, productivity challenges due to physical limitations, and workplace safety concerns. To sustain the workforce and pension systems, technology plays a pivotal role. Robots provide valuable support to human workers, and effective human-robot interaction is essential. FORTIS, a Horizon project, aims to address these challenges by creating a comprehensive Human-Robot Interaction (HRI) solution. This solution focuses on multi-modal communication and multi-aspect interaction, with a primary goal of maintaining a human-centric approach. By meeting the needs of both human workers and robots, FORTIS aims to facilitate efficient and safe collaboration. The project encompasses three key activities: 1) A Human-Centric Approach involving data collection, annotation, understanding human behavioural cognition, and contextual human-robot information exchange. 2) A Robotic-Centric Focus addressing the unique requirements of robots during the perception and evaluation of human behaviour. 3) Ensuring Human-Robot Trustworthiness through measures such as human-robot digital twins, safety protocols, and resource allocation. Factor Social, a project partner, will analyse psycho-physiological signals that influence human factors, particularly in hazardous working conditions. The analysis will be conducted using a combination of case studies, structured interviews, questionnaires, and a comprehensive literature review. However, the adoption of novel technologies, particularly those involving human-robot interaction, often faces hurdles related to acceptance. To address this challenge, FORTIS will draw upon insights from Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH), including risk perception and technology acceptance models. Throughout its lifecycle, FORTIS will uphold a human-centric approach, leveraging SSH methodologies to inform the design and development of solutions. This project received funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020/Horizon Europe research and innovation program under grant agreement No 101135707 (FORTIS).

Keywords: skills gaps, productivity challenges, workplace safety, human-robot interaction, human-centric approach, social sciences and humanities, risk perception

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Authors: Xiaoyu Shen, Fang Fang, Chujun Qiu

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Herewith we present a Fourier method for credit risk quantification and allocation in the factor-copula model framework. The key insight is that, compared to directly computing the cumulative distribution function of the portfolio loss via Monte Carlo simulation, it is, in fact, more efficient to calculate the transformation of the distribution function in the Fourier domain instead and inverting back to the real domain can be done in just one step and semi-analytically, thanks to the popular COS method (with some adjustments). We also show that the Euler risk allocation problem can be solved in the same way since it can be transformed into the problem of evaluating a conditional cumulative distribution function. Once the conditional or unconditional cumulative distribution function is known, one can easily calculate various risk metrics. The proposed method not only fills the niche in literature, to the best of our knowledge, of accurate numerical methods for risk allocation but may also serve as a much faster alternative to the Monte Carlo simulation method for risk quantification in general. It can cope with various factor-copula model choices, which we demonstrate via examples of a two-factor Gaussian copula and a two-factor Gaussian-t hybrid copula. The fast error convergence is proved mathematically and then verified by numerical experiments, in which Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and conditional Expected Shortfall are taken as examples of commonly used risk metrics. The calculation speed and accuracy are tested to be significantly superior to the MC simulation for real-sized portfolios. The computational complexity is, by design, primarily driven by the number of factors instead of the number of obligors, as in the case of Monte Carlo simulation. The limitation of this method lies in the "curse of dimension" that is intrinsic to multi-dimensional numerical integration, which, however, can be relaxed with the help of dimension reduction techniques and/or parallel computing, as we will demonstrate in a separate paper. The potential application of this method has a wide range: from credit derivatives pricing to economic capital calculation of the banking book, default risk charge and incremental risk charge computation of the trading book, and even to other risk types than credit risk.

Keywords: credit portfolio, risk allocation, factor copula model, the COS method, Fourier method

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Authors: Enes Huylu, Sude Erkin, Nur A. Özdemir, Hatice K. Güney, Cemre S. Atılgan, Hüseyin Y. Altıntaş, Aysemin Top, Muammer Yılman, Özak Durmuş

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Remanufacturing (reman) applications allow manufacturers to contribute to the circular economy and help to introduce products with almost the same quality, environment-friendly, and lower cost. The objective of this study is to present that the carbon footprint of automotive spare parts used in vehicles could be reduced by reman applications based on Life Cycle Analysis which was framed with ISO 14040 principles. In that case, it was aimed to investigate reman applications for 21 parts in total. So far, research and calculations have been completed for the alternator, turbocharger, starter motor, compressor, manual transmission, auto transmission, and DPF (diesel particulate filter) parts, respectively. Since the aim of Ford Motor Company and Ford OTOSAN is to achieve net zero based on Science-Based Targets (SBT) and the Green Deal that the European Union sets out to make it climate neutral by 2050, the effects of reman applications are researched. In this case, firstly, remanufacturing articles available in the literature were searched based on the yearly high volume of spare parts sold. Paper review results related to their material composition and emissions released during incoming production and remanufacturing phases, the base part has been selected to take it as a reference. Then, the data of the selected base part from the research are used to make an approximate estimation of the carbon footprint reduction of the relevant part used in Ford OTOSAN. The estimation model is based on the weight, and material composition of the referenced paper reman activity. As a result of this study, it was seen that remanufacturing applications are feasible to apply technically and environmentally since it has significant effects on reducing the emissions released during the production phase of the vehicle components. For this reason, the research and calculations of the total number of targeted products in yearly volume have been completed to a large extent. Thus, based on the targeted parts whose research has been completed, in line with the net zero targets of Ford Motor Company and Ford OTOSAN by 2050, if remanufacturing applications are preferred instead of recent production methods, it is possible to reduce a significant amount of the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of spare parts used in vehicles. Besides, it is observed that remanufacturing helps to reduce the waste stream and causes less pollution than making products from raw materials by reusing the automotive components.

Keywords: greenhouse gas emissions, net zero targets, remanufacturing, spare parts, sustainability

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Authors: Anila Hayat

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Pakistan is one of those developing countries that are least involved in emissions but has the most vulnerable environmental conditions. Pakistan is ranked 8th in most affected countries by climate change on the climate risk index 1992-2011. Pakistan is facing severe water shortages and flooding as a result of changes in rainfall patterns, specifically in the least developed areas such as Tharparkar. Nagarparkar, once an attractive tourist spot located in Tharparkar because of its tropical desert climate, is now facing severe drought conditions for the last few decades. This study investigates the present socio-economic situation of local communities, major impacts of droughts and their underlying causes and current mitigation strategies adopted by local communities. The study uses both secondary (quantitative in nature) and primary (qualitative in nature) methods to understand the impacts and explore causes on the socio-economic life of local communities of the study area. The relevant data has been collected through household surveys using structured questionnaires, focus groups and in-depth interviews of key personnel from local and international NGOs to explore the sensitivity of impacts and adaptation to droughts in the study area. This investigation is limited to four rural communities of union council Pilu of Nagarparkar district, including Bheel, BhojaBhoon, Mohd Rahan Ji Dhani and Yaqub Ji Dhani villages. The results indicate that drought has caused significant economic and social hardships for the local communities as more than 60% of the overall population is dependent on rainfall which has been disturbed by irregular rainfall patterns. The decline in Crop yields has forced the local community to migrate to nearby areas in search of livelihood opportunities. Communities have not undertaken any appropriate adaptive actions to counteract the adverse effect of drought; they are completely dependent on support from the government and external aid for survival. Respondents also reported that poverty is a major cause of their vulnerability to drought. An increase in population, limited livelihood opportunities, caste system, lack of interest from the government sector, unawareness shaped their vulnerability to drought and other social issues. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that the local authorities shall create awareness about drought hazards and improve the resilience of communities against drought. It is further suggested to develop, introduce and implement water harvesting practices at the community level to promote drought-resistant crops.

Keywords: migration, vulnerability, awareness, Drought

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Authors: Mirjana Dokmanovic

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The paper will introduce main findings of the research of the responses of the Central European and South Eastern European (CEE/SEE) countries to the global economic and financial crisis in 2008 from human rights and gender perspectives. The research methodology included desk research and qualitative analysis of the available data, studies, statistics, and reports produced by the governments, the UN agencies, international financial institutions (IFIs) and international network of civil society organizations. The main conclusion of the study is that the governments in the region missed to assess the impacts of their anti-crisis policies both ex ante and ex post from the standpoint of human rights and gender equality. Majority of the countries have focused their efforts solely on prompting up the banking and financial sectors, and construction business sectors. The tremendous debt which the states have accumulated for the rescue of banks and industries lead to further cuts in social expenses and reduction of public services. Decreasing state support to health care and social protection and declining family incomes made social services unaffordable for many families. Thus, the economic and financial crisis stirred up the care crisis that was absorbed by women’s intensifying unpaid work within a family and household to manage household survival strategy. On the other hand, increased burden of the care work weakened the position of women in the labour market and their opportunities to find a job. The study indicates that the artificial separation of the real economy and the sphere of social reproduction still persist. This has created additional burden of unpaid work of women within a family. The aim of this paper is to introduce the lessons learnt for future: (a) human rights may not be derogated in the times of crisis; (b) the obligation of states to mitigate negative impacts of economic policies to population, particularly to vulnerable groups, must be prioritized; (c) IFIs and business sector must be liable as duty bearers with respect to human rights commitments.

Keywords: CEE/SEE region, global financial and economic crisis, international financial institutions, human rights commitments, principle of non-derogability of human rights

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Authors: Stefanie Behncke

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This paper analyses the effects of different macroprudential policy measures that have recently been implemented in Switzerland. Among them is the activation and the increase of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) and a tightening of loan-to-value (LTV) requirements. These measures were introduced to limit systemic risks in the Swiss mortgage and real estate markets. They were meant to affect mortgage growth, mortgage risks, and banks’ capital buffers. Evaluation of their quantitative effects provides insights for Swiss policymakers when reassessing their policy. It is also informative for policymakers in other countries who plan to introduce macroprudential instruments. We estimate the effects of the different macroprudential measures with a Differences-in-Differences estimator. Banks differ with respect to the relative importance of mortgages in their portfolio, their riskiness, and their capital buffers. Thus, some of the banks were more affected than others by the CCB, while others were more affected by the LTV requirements. Our analysis is made possible by an unusually informative bank panel data set. It combines data on newly issued mortgage loans and quantitative risk indicators such as LTV and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios with supervisory information on banks’ capital and liquidity situation and balance sheets. Our results suggest that the LTV cap of 90% was most effective. The proportion of new mortgages with a high LTV ratio was significantly reduced. This result does not only apply to the 90% LTV, but also to other threshold values (e.g. 80%, 75%) suggesting that the entire upper part of the LTV distribution was affected. Other outcomes such as the LTI distribution, the growth rates of mortgages and other credits, however, were not significantly affected. Regarding the activation and the increase of the CCB, we do not find any significant effects: neither LTV/LTI risk parameters nor mortgage and other credit growth rates were significantly reduced. This result may reflect that the size of the CCB (1% of relevant residential real estate risk-weighted assets at activation, respectively 2% at the increase) was not sufficiently high enough to trigger a distinct reaction between the banks most likely to be affected by the CCB and those serving as controls. Still, it might be have been effective in increasing the resilience in the overall banking system. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that targeted macroprudential policy measures can contribute to financial stability. In line with findings by others, caps on LTV reduced risk taking in Switzerland. To fully assess the effectiveness of the CCB, further experience is needed.

Keywords: banks, financial stability, macroprudential policy, mortgages

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Authors: Anjula Negi, D. T. V. Raghu Ramaswamy, Rajneesh Sareen

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Road infrastructure is emphatically one of the top most critical infrastructure to the Indian economy. Road network in the country of around 3.3 million km is the second largest in the world. Nationwide statistics released by Ministry of Road, Transport and Highways reveal that every minute an accident happens and one death every 3.7 minutes. This reported scale in terms of safety is a matter of grave concern, and economically represents a national loss of 3% to the GDP. Union Budget 2016-17 has allocated USD 12 billion annually for development and strengthening of roads, an increase of 56% from last year. Thus, highlighting the importance of roads as critical infrastructure. National highway alone represent only 1.7% of the total road linkages, however, carry over 40% of traffic. Further, trends analysed from 2002 -2011 on national highways, indicate that in less than a decade, a 22 % increase in accidents have been reported, but, 68% increase in death fatalities. Paramount inference is that accident severity has increased with time. Over these years many measures to increase road safety, lessening damage to physical assets, reducing vulnerabilities leading to a build-up for resilient road infrastructure have been taken. In the context of national highway development program, policy makers proposed implementation of around 20 % of such road length on PPP mode. These roads were taken up on high-density traffic considerations and for qualitative implementation. In order to understand resilience impacts and safety parameters, enshrined in various PPP concession agreements executed with the private sector partners, such highway specific projects would be appraised. This research paper would attempt to assess such safety measures taken and the possible reasons behind an increase in accident severity through these PPP case study projects. Delving further on safety features to understand policy measures adopted in these cases and an introspection on reasons of severity, whether an outcome of increased speeds, faulty road design and geometrics, driver negligence, or due to lack of discipline in following lane traffic with increased speed. Assessment exercise would study these aspects hitherto to PPP and post PPP project structures, based on literature review and opinion surveys with sectoral experts. On the way forward, it is understood that the Ministry of Road, Transport and Highway’s estimate for strengthening the national highway network is USD 77 billion within next five years. The outcome of this paper would provide an understanding of resilience measures adopted, possible options for accessible and safe road network and its expansion to policy makers for possible policy initiatives and funding allocation in securing critical infrastructure.

Keywords: national highways, policy, PPP, safety

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Authors: Harneet Walia, Morteza Zihayat

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Customer acquisition has become one of the critical issues of any business in the 21st century; having a healthy customer base is the essential asset of the bank business. Term deposits act as a major source of cheap funds for the banks to invest and benefit from interest rate arbitrage. To attract customers, the marketing campaigns at most financial institutions consist of multiple outbound telephonic calls with more than one contact to a customer which is a very time-consuming process. Therefore, customized direct marketing has become more critical than ever for attracting new clients. As customer acquisition is becoming more difficult to archive, having an intelligent and redefined list is necessary to sell a product smartly. Our aim of this research is to increase the effectiveness of campaigns by predicting customers who will most likely subscribe to the fixed deposit and suggest the most suitable month to reach out to customers. We design a Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) using two different approaches, with an aim to find the best approach and technique to build the prediction model. TAUPF is implemented using Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA) and Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA). We also address the data imbalance problem by examining and comparing different methods of sampling (Up-sampling and down-sampling). Our results have shown building such a model is quite feasible and profitable for the financial institutions. The Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) can be easily used in any industry such as telecom, automobile, tourism, etc. where the TAUPF (Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA) or Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA)) holds valid. In our case, CUPA books more reliable. As proven in our research, one of the most important challenges is to define measures which have enough predictive power as the subscription to a fixed deposit depends on highly ambiguous situations and cannot be easily isolated. While we have shown the practicality of time-aware upsell prediction model where financial institutions can benefit from contacting the customers at the specified month, further research needs to be done to understand the specific time of the day. In addition, a further empirical/pilot study on real live customer needs to be conducted to prove the effectiveness of the model in the real world.

Keywords: customer acquisition, predictive analysis, targeted marketing, time-aware analysis

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Authors: Hila Levi

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Respect for human rights is a fundamental element of the European Union's (EU) identity and law. Surprisingly, however, the protection of human rights has been significantly restricted in the austerity programs ordered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Commission (EC) (often labeled 'the Troika') in return for financial aid to the crisis-hit countries. This paper focuses on the role of the ECB in the crisis management. While other international financial institutions, such as the IMF or the World Bank, may opt to neglect human rights obligations, one might expect a greater respect of human rights from the ECB, which is bound by the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights. However, this paper argues that ECB officials made no significant effort to protect human rights or strike an adequate balance between competing financial and human rights needs while coping with the crisis. ECB officials were preoccupied with the need to stabilize the economy and prevent a collapse of the Eurozone, and paid only marginal attention to human rights concerns in the design and implementation of Troikas' programs. This paper explores the role of Organizational Culture (OC) in explaining this marginalization. While International Relations (IR) research on Intergovernmental Organizations (IGOs) behavior has traditionally focused on external interests of powerful member states, and on national and economic considerations, this study focuses on particular institutions' internal factors and independent processes. OC characteristics have been identified in OC literature as an important determinant of organizational behavior. This paper suggests that cultural characteristics are also vital for the examination of IGOs, and particularly for understanding the ECB's behavior during the crisis. In order to assess the OC of the ECB and the impact it had on its policies and decisions during the Eurozone crisis, the paper uses the results of numerous qualitative interviews conducted with high-ranking officials and staff members of the ECB involved in the crisis management. It further reviews primary sources of the ECB (such as ECB statutes, and the Memoranda of Understanding signed between the crisis countries and the Troika), and secondary sources (such as the report of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights on Austerity measures and economic, social, and cultural rights). It thus analyzes the interaction between the ECBs culture and the almost complete absence of human rights considerations in the Eurozone crisis resolution scheme. This paper highlights the importance and influence of internal ideational factors on IGOs behavior. From a more practical perspective, this paper may contribute to understanding one of the obstacles in the process of human rights implementation in international organizations, and provide instruments for better protection of social and economic rights.

Keywords: European central bank, eurozone crisis, intergovernmental organizations, organizational culture

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Authors: Beata Lachtara, Renata Szewczyk, Katarzyna Bielinska, Kinga Wieczorek, Jacek Osek

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Listeria monocytogenes is an important human and animal pathogen that causes foodborne outbreaks. The bacteria may be present in different types of food: cheese, raw vegetables, sliced meat products and vacuum-packed sausages, poultry, meat, fish. The most common method, which has been used for the investigation of genetic diversity of L. monocytogenes, is PFGE. This technique is reliable and reproducible and established as gold standard for typing of L. monocytogenes. The aim of the study was characterization by molecular serotyping and PFGE analysis of L. monocytogenes strains isolated from fresh fish and fish products in Poland. A total of 301 samples, including fresh fish (n = 129) and fish products (n = 172) were, collected between January 2014 and March 2016. The bacteria were detected using the ISO 11290-1 standard method. Molecular serotyping was performed with PCR. The isolates were tested with the PFGE method according to the protocol developed by the European Union Reference Laboratory for L. monocytogenes with some modifications. Based on the PFGE profiles, two dendrograms were generated for strains digested separately with two restriction enzymes: AscI and ApaI. Analysis of the fingerprint profiles was performed using Bionumerics software version 6.6 (Applied Maths, Belgium). The 95% of similarity was applied to differentiate the PFGE pulsotypes. The study revealed that 57 of 301 (18.9%) samples were positive for L. monocytogenes. The bacteria were identified in 29 (50.9%) ready-to-eat fish products and in 28 (49.1%) fresh fish. It was found that 40 (70.2%) strains were of serotype 1/2a, 14 (24.6%) 1/2b, two (4.3%) 4b and one (1.8%) 1/2c. Serotypes 1/2a, 1/2b, and 4b were presented with the same frequency in both categories of food, whereas serotype 1/2c was detected only in fresh fish. The PFGE analysis with AscI demonstrated 43 different pulsotypes; among them 33 (76.7%) were represented by only one strain. The remaining 10 profiles contained more than one isolate. Among them 8 pulsotypes comprised of two L. monocytogenes isolates, one profile of three isolates and one restriction type of 5 strains. In case of ApaI typing, the PFGE analysis showed 27 different pulsotypes including 17 (63.0%) types represented by only one strain. Ten (37.0%) clusters contained more than one strain among which four profiles covered two strains; three had three isolates, one with five strains, one with eight strains and one with ten isolates. It was observed that the isolates assigned to the same PFGE type were usually of the same serotype (1/2a or 1/2b). The majority of the clusters had strains of both sources (fresh fish and fish products) isolated at different time. Most of the strains grouped in one cluster of the AscI restriction was assigned to the same groups in ApaI investigation. In conclusion, PFGE used in the study showed a high genetic diversity among L. monocytogenes. The strains were grouped into varied clonal clusters, which may suggest different sources of contamination. The results demonstrated that 1/2a serotype was the most common among isolates from fresh fish and fish products in Poland.

Keywords: Listeria monocytogenes, molecular characteristic, PFGE, serotyping

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