Search results for: age-structured forest population

Authors: Uttam Kumar Sahoo, K. Lalhmingsangi, J. H. Lalremruati

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Non-timber forest resources particularly the high-value, low volume NTFPs has drawn interest as an activity all over the world during the past three decades that could raise standards of living for the rural folks while being compatible with forest conservation. This is particularly true for the people living in and around or fringes of protected areas. However, the economics that plays between resources’ stock and its utilization by the humans is yet to be validated and evaluated logistically. A study was therefore designed to understand the linkages between resource (especially NTFPs) availability and their utilization, existing threats to this biodiversity conservation and the role of NTFPs within the livelihood systems of those households that are most directly involved in creating conservation threats. About 25% of the households were sampled from the two sites ‘resource-rich’ and ‘resource poor’ area of Dampa Tiger Reserve (Western boundary). Our preliminary findings suggest that the collection of relatively high-volume and low value NTFPs such as fuelwood, fodder has caused degradation of forest resources while the low-volume and high-value NTFPs such as wild edible mushrooms, vegetables, other specialty food products, inputs to crafts, medicinal plants have resulted into species promotion/conservation through their domestication in traditional agroforestry systems including home gardens and/or collateral protection of the Tiger Reserve. It is thus suggested that proper assessment of these biodiversities, their direct and indirect valuation, market and non-market profits etc be carried out in greater details which would result in prescribing effective management plans around the park.

Keywords: household economy, livelihood strategies, non-timber forest products, species conservation

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Authors: Sadixa Sanjel, Ahmed Sadek, Naseef Mansoor, Zelalem Denekew

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Collegiate ice hockey (NCAA) sports analytics is different from the national level hockey (NHL). We apply and compare multiple machine learning models such as Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Neural Networks to predict the win ratio for a team based on their statistics. Data exploration helps determine which statistics are most useful in increasing the win ratio, which would be beneficial to coaches and team managers. We ran experiments to select the best model and chose Random Forest as the best performing. We conclude with how to bridge the gap between the college and national levels of sports analytics and the use of machine learning to enhance team performance despite not having a lot of metrics or budget for automatic tracking.

Keywords: NCAA, NHL, sports analytics, random forest, regression, neural networks, game predictions

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Authors: Medani Prasad Rijal

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Forest itself is a factory as well as product. It supplies tangible and intangible goods and services. It supplies timber, fuel wood, fodder, grass leaf litter as well as non timber edible goods and medicinal and aromatic products additionally provides environmental services. These environmental services are of local, national or even global importance. In Nepal, more than 19 thousands community forests are providing environmental service in less economic benefit than actual efficiency. There is a risk of cost of management of those forest exceeds benefits and forests get converted to open access resources in future. Most of the environmental goods and services do not have markets which mean no prices at which they are available to the consumers, therefore the valuation of these services goods and services establishment of paying mechanism for such services and insure the benefit to community is more relevant in local as well as global scale. There are few examples of carbon trading in domestic level to meet the country wide emission goal. In this contest, the study aims to explore the public attitude towards carbon offsetting and their responsibility over service providers. This study helps in promotion of environment service awareness among general people, service provider and community forest. The research helps to unveil the carbon pool scenario in community forest and willingness to pay for carbon offsetting of people who are consuming more energy than general people and emitting relatively more carbon in atmosphere. The study has assessed the carbon pool status in two community forest and valuated carbon service from community forest through willingness to pay in Dharan municipality situated in eastern. In the study, in two community forests carbon pools were assessed following the guideline “Forest Carbon Inventory Guideline 2010” prescribed by Ministry of Forest and soil Conservation, Nepal. Final outcomes of analysis in intensively managed area of Hokse CF recorded as 103.58 tons C /ha with 6173.30 tons carbon stock. Similarly in Hariyali CF carbon density was recorded 251.72 mg C /ha. The total carbon stock of intensively managed blocks in Hariyali CF is 35839.62 tons carbon.

Keywords: carbon, offsetting, sequestration, valuation, willingness to pay

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Authors: Rajendra Kumar Pandey

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Forest genetic resources not only represent regional biodiversity but also have immense value as the wealth for securing livelihood of poor people. These are vulnerable to ecological due to depletion/deforestation and /or impact of climate change. These resources of various plant categories are vulnerable on the floor of natural tropical forests, and leading to the threat on the growth and development of future forests. More than 170 species, including NTFPs, are in critical condition for their survival in natural tropical forests of Central India. Forest degradation, commensurate with biodiversity loss, is now pervasive, disproportionately affecting the rural poor who directly depend on forests for their subsistence. Looking ahead the interaction between forest and water, soil, precipitation, climate change, etc. and its impact on biodiversity of tropical forests, it is inevitable to develop co-operation policies and programmes to address new emerging realities. Forests ecosystem also known as the 'wealth of poor' providing goods and ecosystem services on a sustainable basis, are now recognized as a stepping stone to move poor people beyond subsistence. Poverty alleviation is the prime objective of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, environmental sustainability including other MDGs, is essential to ensure successful elimination of poverty and well being of human society. Loss and degradation of ecosystem are the most serious threats to achieving development goals worldwide. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA, 2005) was an attempt to identify provisioning and regulating cultural and supporting ecosystem services to provide livelihood security of human beings. Climate change may have a substantial impact on ecological structure and function of forests, provisioning, regulations and management of resources which can affect sustainable flow of ecosystem services. To overcome these limitations, policy guidelines with respect to planning and consistent research strategy need to be framed for conservation and sustainable development of forest genetic resources.

Keywords: climate change, forest ecosystem services, sustainable forest management, biodiversity conservation

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Authors: Songul Cinaroglu

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Machine learning regression methods are recommended as an alternative to classical regression methods in the existence of variables which are difficult to model. Data for health expenditure is typically non-normal and have a heavily skewed distribution. This study aims to compare machine learning regression methods by hyperparameter tuning to predict health expenditure per capita. A multiple regression model was conducted and performance results of Lasso Regression, Random Forest Regression and Support Vector Machine Regression recorded when different hyperparameters are assigned. Lambda (λ) value for Lasso Regression, number of trees for Random Forest Regression, epsilon (ε) value for Support Vector Regression was determined as hyperparameters. Study results performed by using 'k' fold cross validation changed from 5 to 50, indicate the difference between machine learning regression results in terms of R², RMSE and MAE values that are statistically significant (p < 0.001). Study results reveal that Random Forest Regression (R² ˃ 0.7500, RMSE ≤ 0.6000 ve MAE ≤ 0.4000) outperforms other machine learning regression methods. It is highly advisable to use machine learning regression methods for modelling health expenditures.

Keywords: machine learning, lasso regression, random forest regression, support vector regression, hyperparameter tuning, health expenditure

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Authors: Ayuko Itsuki, Sachiyo Aburatani

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Soil neutral sugar contents in Kasuga-yama Hill Primeval Forest (Nara, Japan) were examined using the Waksman’s approximation analysis to clarify relations with the neutral sugar constituted the soil organic matter and the microbial biomass. Samples were selected from the soil surrounding laurel-leaved (BB-1) and Carpinus japonica (BB-2) trees for analysis. The water and HCl soluble neutral sugars increased microbial biomass of the laurel-leaved forest soil. Arabinose, xylose, and galactose of the HCl soluble fraction were used immediately in comparison with other neutral sugars. Rhamnose, glucose, and fructose of the HCl soluble fraction were re-composed by the microbes.

Keywords: forest soil, neutral sugaras, soil organic matter, Waksman’s approximation analysis

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Authors: Smitha Haridasan, Zelalem Demissie, Atri Dutta, Ajita Rattani

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Aided by the wind, all it takes is one ember and a few minutes to create a wildfire. Wildfires are growing in frequency and size due to climate change. Wildfires and its consequences are one of the major environmental concerns. Every year, millions of hectares of forests are destroyed over the world, causing mass destruction and human casualties. Thus early detection of wildfire becomes a critical component to mitigate this threat. Many computer vision-based techniques have been proposed for the early detection of forest fire using video surveillance. Several computer vision-based methods have been proposed to predict and detect forest fires at various spectrums, namely, RGB, HSV, and YCbCr. The aim of this paper is to propose a multi-spectral deep learning model that combines information from different spectrums at intermediate layers for accurate fire detection. A heterogeneous dataset assembled from publicly available datasets is used for model training and evaluation in this study. The experimental results show that multi-spectral deep learning models could obtain an improvement of about 4.68 % over those based on a single spectrum for fire detection.

Keywords: deep learning, forest fire detection, multi-spectral learning, natural hazard detection

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Authors: Guntur Bagus Pamungkas

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As part of a tropical country that is normally rich in forest land areas, Indonesia has always been in the world's spotlight due to its significantly increasing process of deforestation. In one hand, it is related to the mainstay for maintaining the sustainability of the earth's ecosystem functions. On the other hand, they also cover the various potential sources of the global economy. Therefore, it can always be the target of different scale of investors to excessively exploit them. No wonder the emergence of disasters in various characteristics always comes up. In fact, the deforestation phenomenon does not only occur in various forest land areas in the main islands of Indonesia but also includes Java Island, the most densely populated areas in the world. This island only remains the forest land of about 9.8% of the total forest land in Indonesia due to its long history of it, especially in Central Java Province, the most densely populated area in Java. Again, not surprisingly, this province belongs to the area with the highest frequency of disasters because of it, landslides in particular. One of the areas that often experience it is Banjarnegara District, especially in mountainous areas that lies in the range from 1000 to 3000 meters above sea level, where the remains of land forest area can easyly still be found. Even among them still leaves less untouchable tropical rain forest whose area also covers part of a neighboring district, Pekalongan, which is considered to be the rest of the world's little paradise on Earth. The district's landscape is indeed beautiful, especially in the Dieng area, a major tourist destination in Central Java Province after Borobudur Temple. However, annually hazardous always threatens this district due to this landslide disaster. Even, there was a tragic event that was buried with its inhabitants a few decades ago. This research aims to find part of the concept of effective forest management through monitoring the presence of remaining forest areas in this area. The research implemented monitoring of deforestation rates using the Stochastic Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (SCA-MC) method, which serves to provide a spatial simulation of land use and cover changes (LULCC). This geospatial process uses the Landsat-8 OLI image product with Thermal Infra-Red Sensors (TIRS) Band 10 in 2020 and Landsat 5 TM with TIRS Band 6 in 2010. Then it is also integrated with physical and social geography issues using the QGIS 2.18.11 application with the Mollusce Plugin, which serves to clarify and calculate the area of land use and cover, especially in forest areas—using the LULCC method, which calculates the rate of forest area reduction in 2010-2020 in Banjarnegara District. Since the dependence of this area on the use of forest land is quite high, concepts and preventive actions are needed, such as rehabilitation and reforestation of critical lands through providing proper monitoring and targeted forest management to restore its ecosystem in the future.

Keywords: deforestation, populous area, LULCC method, proper control and effective forest management

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Authors: Zina Nasr, Faiek Errouissi

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Forest ecosystems are known for its ability to contain a large diversity of fauna especially insects that represent a huge taxonomic group. A portion of forest insects are recognized as saproxylic including the group of organisms that ‘depend on dead or dying wood’ about them, 20% are beetles. We focused our study on saproxylic beetles in an old urban park ‘the park of Belvedere’, located in the north west of Tunis (36° 49'21’ N 10°10'24’ W). The vegetation is dominated by old trees (Eucalyptus, Olea, Aberia, Pinus) and many fallen wood exist. Saproxylic beetles were collected using three interception traps set in the park over one year (from June 2014 to May 2015) and recovered monthly. In total, we collected 189 beetles belonging to 20 families and 57 species. Several saproxylic families (Bostrichidae, Cerambycidae, Curculionidae, Melyridae, Nitidulidae, Staphylinidae), and well known genus (Rhizopertha, Thrychoplerus, Otiorhychus, Dolichosoma, Epuraea, Anotylus) are recorded. We have retained the largest activity of beetles in spring and a very low richness in winter with zero insect per traps. This result was certainly caused by the variation of meteorological factors that mainly influenced the activity of these organisms. Therefore, we were interested on the saproxylic diversity in an urban ‘forest’, and these results will be more interesting when they are compared in the future with other works from natural forest.

Keywords: saproxylic beetles, seasons, urban park, wood

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Authors: Melis Inalpulat, Levent Genc

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Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes due to human activities and natural causes have become a major environmental concern. Assessment of temporal remote sensing data provides information about LULC impacts on environment. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is one of the important components for modeling environmental changes in climatological, hydrological, and agricultural studies. In this study, LULC changes (September 7, 1984 and July 8, 2014) especially in agricultural lands together with population changes (1985-2014) and LST status were investigated using remotely sensed and census data in South Marmara Watershed, Turkey. LULC changes were determined using Landsat TM and Landsat OLI data acquired in 1984 and 2014 summers. Six-band TM and OLI images were classified using supervised classification method to prepare LULC map including five classes including Forest (F), Grazing Land (G), Agricultural Land (A), Water Surface (W), and Residential Area-Bare Soil (R-B) classes. The LST image was also derived from thermal bands of the same dates. LULC classification results showed that forest areas, agricultural lands, water surfaces and residential area-bare soils were increased as 65751 ha, 20163 ha, 1924 ha and 20462 ha respectively. In comparison, a dramatic decrement occurred in grazing land (107985 ha) within three decades. The population increased % 29 between years 1984-2014 in whole study area. Along with the natural causes, migration also caused this increase since the study area has an important employment potential. LULC was transformed among the classes due to the expansion in residential, commercial and industrial areas as well as political decisions. In the study, results showed that agricultural lands around the settlement areas transformed to residential areas in 30 years. The LST images showed that mean temperatures were ranged between 26-32 °C in 1984 and 27-33 °C in 2014. Minimum temperature of agricultural lands was increased 3 °C and reached to 23 °C. In contrast, maximum temperature of A class decreased to 41 °C from 44 °C. Considering temperatures of the 2014 R-B class and 1984 status of same areas, it was seen that mean, min and max temperatures increased by 2 °C. As a result, the dynamism of population, LULC and LST resulted in increasing mean and maximum surface temperatures, living spaces/industrial areas and agricultural lands.

Keywords: census data, landsat, land surface temperature (LST), land use land cover (LULC)

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Authors: Ayuko Itsuki, Sachiyo Aburatani

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We assessed the ecology of the organic and mineral soil layers of laurel-leaved (BB-1) and Cryptomeria japonica (BB-2 and Pw) forests in the Kasugayama Hill Primeval Forest (Nara, Japan). The soil respiration rate was higher in the deeper horizons (F and H) of organic layers than in those of mineral soil layers, suggesting organic layers may be where active microbial metabolism occurs. Respiration rates in the soil of BB-1, BB-2 and Pw forests were closely similar at 5 and 10°C. However, the soil respiration rate increased in proportion to temperatures of 15°C or above. We therefore consider the activity of soil microorganisms to markedly decrease at temperatures below 10°C. At a temperature of 15°C or above, the soil respiration rate in the BB-1 organic layers was higher than in those of the BB-2 and Pw organic layers, due to differences in forest vegetation that appeared to influence several salient soil properties, particularly pH and the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content of the F and H horizons.

Keywords: forest soil, mineralization rate, heterotroph, soil respiration rate

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Authors: Mohammed Sghir Taleb

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Located at the northwest corner of the African continent between 21 ° and 36 ° north latitude and between the 1st and the 17th degree of west longitude, Morocco, with a total area of 715,000 km², enjoys a privileged position with a coastline of 3 446 km long opening to the Mediterranean and the Atlantic Ocean. Its privileged location with a double coastline and its diverse mountain with four major mountain ranges: the Rif, Middle Atlas, High Atlas, and Anti Atlas, with altitudes exceeding 2000 m in the Rif, 3000 m in the Middle Atlas, and 4000 m in the High Atlas. Morocco is characterized by an important forest genetic diversity represented by a rich and varied flora and many ecosystems: forest, preforest, presteppe, steppe, Sahara that spans a range of bioclimatic zones: arid, semiarid, subhumid, and humid. The vascular flora of Morocco is rich and highly diversified, with a very significant degree of endemism. Natural flora and ecosystems provide important services to populations represented by grazing, timber harvest, harvesting of medicinal and aromatic plants. This work will be focused on the Moroccan biodiversity and natural ecosystem services and on the interaction between local populations and ecosystems

Keywords: biodiversity, forest, ecosystem, services, Morocco

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Authors: Todor Nickolov Stoyanov

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These factors appear as a reason for difficulties in financing from programs for rural development of the European Union. Credit conditions for commercial banks are difficult to implement, and its interest rate is too high. One of the possibilities for short-term loans at preferential conditions for the small and medium-sized agricultural and forest owners is credit cooperative. After the changes, occurred in the country after 1990, the need to restore credit cooperatives raised. The purpose for the creation of credit cooperatives is to assist private agricultural and forest owners to take care for them, to assist in the expansion and strengthening of their farms, to increase the quality of life and to improve the local economy. It was found that: in Bulgaria there is a legal obstacle for credit cooperatives to expand their business in the deposit and lending sphere; private forest and agricultural owners need small loans to solve a small problem for a certain season; providing such loans is not attractive for banks, but it is extremely necessary for owners of small forests and lands; if a special law on credit cooperatives is adopted, as required by the Cooperatives Act, it will allow more local people to be members of such credit structures and receive the necessary loans. In conclusion, proposals to create conditions for the development of credit cooperatives in the country are made and positive results expected from the creation of credit cooperatives, are summarized.

Keywords: cooperatives, credit cooperatives, forestry, forest owners

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Authors: Ana Paula Mousinho, Ronaldo D. Mansano, Nelson Ordonez

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Carbon nanotubes are one of the main elements in nanotechnologies; their applications are in microelectronics, nano-electronics devices (photonics, spintronic), chemical sensors, structural material and currently in clean energy devices (supercapacitors and fuel cells). The use of magnetic particle decorated carbon nanotubes increases the applications in magnetic devices, magnetic memory, and magnetic oriented drug delivery. In this work, single-walled carbon nanotubes (CNTs) forest decorated with chromium were deposited at room temperature by high-density plasma chemical vapor deposition (HDPCVD) system. The CNTs forest was obtained using pure methane plasmas and chromium, as precursor material (seed) and for decorating the CNTs. Magnetron sputtering deposited the chromium on silicon wafers before the CNTs' growth. Scanning electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy, micro-Raman spectroscopy, and X-ray diffraction characterized the single-walled CNTs forest decorated with chromium. In general, the CNTs' spectra show a unique emission band, but due to the presence of the chromium, the spectra obtained in this work showed many bands that are related to the CNTs with different diameters. The CNTs obtained by the HDPCVD system are highly aligned and showed metallic features, and they can be used as photonic material, due to the unique structural and electrical properties. The results of this work proved the possibility of obtaining the controlled deposition of aligned single-walled CNTs forest films decorated with chromium by high-density plasma chemical vapor deposition system.

Keywords: CNTs forest, high density plasma deposition, high-aligned CNTs, nanomaterials

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Authors: Bartosz Osiecki, Jane Liu

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Pollutants emitted from forest fires such as PM₂.₅ and carbon monoxide (CO) have been found to impact the air quality of distant regions through long-range transport. PM₂.₅ is of particular concern due to its transport capacity and implications for human respiratory and cardiovascular health. As such, significant increases in PM₂.₅ concentrations have been exhibited in urban areas downwind of fire sources. This study seeks to expand on this literature by evaluating the impacts of long-range forest fire emission transport on air quality in Toronto, Ontario, as a means of evaluating the vulnerability of this major urban center to distant fire events. In order to draw correlations between the fire event and air pollution episode in Toronto, MODIS fire count data and HYPLSIT trajectories are used to assess the date, location, and severity of the fire and track the trajectory of emissions (respectively). Forward and back-trajectories are run, terminating at the West Toronto air monitoring station. PM₂.₅ and CO concentrations in Toronto during September 2017 are found to be significantly elevated, which is likely attributable to the fire activity. Other sites in Ontario including Toronto (East, North, Downtown), Mississauga, Brampton, and Hamilton (Downtown) exhibit similar peaks in PM₂.₅ concentrations. This work sheds light on the non-local, natural factors influencing air quality in urban areas. This is especially important in the context of climate change which is expected to exacerbate intense forest fire events in the future.

Keywords: air quality, forest fires, PM₂.₅, Toronto

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Authors: Elena Listo Ubeda, Miguel Marchamalo Sacristan

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The demand for water doubles every twenty years, at a rate which is twice as fast as the world´s population growth. Despite it´s great importance, water is one of the most degraded natural resources in the world, mainly because of the reduction of natural vegetation coverage, population growth, contamination and changes in the soil use which reduces its capacity to collect water. This situation is especially serious in Central America, as reflected in the Human Development reports. The objective of this project is to assist in the improvement of water production and quality in Central America. In order to do these two watersheds in Costa Rica were selected as experiments: that of the Virilla-Durazno River, located in the extreme north east of the central valley which has an Atlantic influence; and that of the Jabillo River, which flows directly into the Pacific. The Virilla river watershed is located over andisols, and that of the Jabillo River is over alfisols, and both are of great importance for water supply to the Greater Metropolitan Area and the future tourist resorts respectively, as well as for the production of agriculture, livestock and hydroelectricity. The hydrological reaction in different soil-cover complexes, varying from the secondary forest to natural vegetation and degraded pasture, was analyzed according to the evaluation of the properties of the soil, infiltration, soil compaction, as well as the effects of the soil cover complex on erosion, calculated by the C factor of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). A water balance was defined for each watershed, in which the volume of water that enters and leaves were estimated, as well as the evapotranspiration, runoff, and infiltration. Two future scenarios, representing the implementation of reforestation and deforestation plans, were proposed, and were analyzed for the effects of the soil cover complex on the water balance in each case. The results obtained show an increase of the ground water recharge in the humid forest areas, and an extension of the study of the dry areas is proposed since the ground water recharge here is diminishing. These results are of great significance for the planning, design of Payment Schemes for Environmental Services and the improvement of the existing water supply systems. In Central America spatial planning is a priority, as are the watersheds, in order to assess the water resource socially and economically, and securing its availability for the future.

Keywords: Costa Rica, infiltration, soil, water

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Authors: Amina Beldjazia, Djamel Alatou, Khaled Missaoui

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The forest of Mahouna is a part of the mountain range of the Tell Atlas in the northeast of Algeria. It is characterized by a significant biodiversity. The management of this resource requires thorough the understanding of the current state of the vegetation (inventories), degradation factors and ongoing monitoring of the various long-term ecological changes. Digital mapping is a very effective way to in-depth knowledge of natural resources. The realization of a vegetation map based on satellite images, aerial photographs and the use of geographic information system (GIS), shows large values results of the vegetation of the massif in the scientific view point (the development of a database of the different formations that exist on the site, ecological conditions) and economic (GIS facilitate our task of managing the various resources and diversity of the forest). The methodology is divided into three stages: the first involves an analysis of climate data (1988 to 2013); the second is to conduct field surveys (soil and phytoecological) during the months of June and July 2013 (10 readings), the third is based on the development of different themes and synthetic cards by software of GIS (ENVI 4.6 and 10 ARCMAP). The results show: cork oak covers an area of 1147 ha. Depending on the environmental conditions, it rests on sandstone and individualizes between 3 layers of vegetation from thermo-mediterranean (the North East part with 40ha), meso-Mediterranean (1061 ha) and finally the supra-Mediterranean (46ha ). The map shows the current actual state of the cork oak forest massif of Mahouna, it is an older forest (>150 years) where regeneration is absent because of several factors (fires, overgrazing, leaching, erosion, etc.). The cork oak is in the form of dense forest with Laburnum and heather as the dominant species. It may also present in open forest dominated by scrub species: Daphne gniduim, Erica arborea, Calycotome spinosa, Phillyrea angustifolia, Lavandula stoechas, Cistus salvifolius.

Keywords: biodiversity, environmental, Mahouna, Cork oak

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Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

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The machinability of workpieces (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron) in turning operation has been carried out using different types of cutting tool (conventional, cutting tool with holes in toolholder and cutting tool filled up with composite material) under dry conditions on a turning machine at different stages of spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). Experimentation was performed as per Taguchi’s orthogonal array. To evaluate the relative importance of factors affecting surface roughness the single decision tree (SDT), Decision tree forest (DTF) and Group method of data handling (GMDH) were applied.

Keywords: decision tree forest, GMDH, surface roughness, Taguchi method, turning process

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Authors: Ahmed A. A. Fadol, Guangji Tong, Wlaa Mohamed

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This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of food insecurity in Sudan, focusing on consumption patterns and their implications, employing the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) assessment framework. Years of conflict and economic instability have driven large segments of the population in Sudan into crisis levels of acute food insecurity according to the (IPC). A substantial number of people are estimated to currently face emergency conditions, with an additional sizeable portion categorized under less severe but still extreme hunger levels. In this study, we explore the multifaceted nature of food insecurity in Sudan, considering its historical, political, economic, and social dimensions. An analysis of consumption patterns and trends was conducted, taking into account cultural influences, dietary shifts, and demographic changes. Furthermore, we employ logistic regression and random forest analysis to identify significant independent variables influencing food security status in Sudan. Random forest clearly outperforms logistic regression in terms of area under curve (AUC), accuracy, precision and recall. Forward projections of the IPC for Sudan estimate that 15 million individuals are anticipated to face Crisis level (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity conditions between October 2023 and February 2024. Of this, 60% are concentrated in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, and Khartoum State, with Greater Darfur alone representing 29% of this total. These findings emphasize the urgent need for both short-term humanitarian aid and long-term strategies to address Sudan's deepening food insecurity crisis.

Keywords: food insecurity, consumption patterns, logistic regression, random forest analysis

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Authors: Orkan Ozcan, Nebiye Musaoglu, Murat Turkes

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Climate change is largely recognized as one of the real, pressing and significant global problems. The concept of ‘climate change vulnerability’ helps us to better comprehend the cause/effect relationships behind climate change and its impact on human societies, socioeconomic sectors, physiographical and ecological systems. In this study, multifactorial spatial modeling was applied to evaluate the vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest ecosystem to climate change. As a result, the geographical distribution of the final Environmental Vulnerability Areas (EVAs) of the forest ecosystem is based on the estimated final Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) values. This revealed that at current levels of environmental degradation, physical, geographical, policy enforcement and socioeconomic conditions, the area with a ‘very low’ vulnerability degree covered mainly the town, its surrounding settlements and the agricultural lands found mainly over the low and flat travertine plateau and the plains at the east and southeast of the district. The spatial magnitude of the EVAs over the forest ecosystem under the current environmental degradation was also determined. This revealed that the EVAs classed as ‘very low’ account for 21% of the total area of the forest ecosystem, those classed as ‘low’ account for 36%, those classed as ‘medium’ account for 20%, and those classed as ‘high’ account for 24%. Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected future climate indicators, both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier, hotter, more continental and more water-deficient climate. This analysis holds true for all future scenarios, with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030. However, the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become a semiarid climate in the period between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. All the observed and estimated results and assessments summarized in the study show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site, which is characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and the maquis vegetation, will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation, climate change and variability.

Keywords: forest ecosystem, Mediterranean climate, RCP scenarios, vulnerability analysis

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Authors: Katherine Arquio

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Community-based Forest Management (CBFM) is one of the integrative programs that slowly turned the course of forest management from traditional corporate to community-based practice resulting to people empowerment. As such, one of its goals is to promote socio-economic welfare among the people in the community in which social equity is included. This study aims to look at the equity aspect of the program, particularly if there are equity differences between two CBFM sites- Matikiw in Pakil, Laguna and Minayutan and Bacong Sigsigan in Famy, Laguna. Equity indicators were identified first, since these will be the basis of the questions that will be asked on the survey, after this, the survey proper was conducted, and finally, the analysis. Two tailed t-test was used as statistical tool since the difference between the two sites is the focus of the study. Statistical analysis was done through the use of STATA program, a statistical software. There were 32 indicators identified and results showed that, out of these indicators, only 13 were found significantly different between the two. The 13 indicators were significantly observed only in Matikiw; the other 19 indicators were commonly observed in both areas and are conducive as equity indicators for the CBFM program.

Keywords: social equity, CBFM, social forestry, equity indicators

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Authors: Yusuf Jundi Sado

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Changes in land use are mostly credited to human actions that result in negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functions. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of land use and land cover changes for sustainable natural resources planning and management. Chilalo-Galama Mountain Range, Ethiopia. This study used Thematic Mapper 05 (TM) for 1986, 2001 and Landsat 8 (OLI) data 2017. Additionally, data from the Central Statistics Agency on human population growth were analyzed. Semi-Automatic classification plugin (SCP) in QGIS 3.2.3 software was used for image classification. Global positioning system, field observations and focus group discussions were used for ground verification. Land Use Land Cover (LU/LC) change analysis was using maximum likelihood supervised classification and changes were calculated for the 1986–2001 and the 2001–2017 and 1986-2017 periods. The results show that agricultural land increased from 27.85% (1986) to 44.43% and 51.32% in 2001 and 2017, respectively with the overall accuracies of 92% (1986), 90.36% (2001), and 88% (2017). On the other hand, forests decreased from 8.51% (1986) to 7.64 (2001) and 4.46% (2017), and grassland decreased from 37.47% (1986) to 15.22%, and 15.01% in 2001 and 2017, respectively. It indicates for the years 1986–2017 the largest area cover gain of agricultural land was obtained from grassland. The matrix also shows that shrubland gained land from agricultural land, afro-alpine, and forest land. Population dynamics is found to be one of the major driving forces for the LU/LU changes in the study area.

Keywords: Landsat, LU/LC change, Semi-Automatic classification plugin, population dynamics, Ethiopia

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Authors: Amritansh Agarwal, Tejaswi Agarwal

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Forest ecosystem plays very important role in the global carbon cycle. It stores about 80% of all above ground and 40% of all below ground terrestrial organic carbon. There is much interest in the extent of tropical forests and their rates of deforestation for two reasons: greenhouse gas contributions and the impact of profoundly negative biodiversity. Deforestation has many ecological, social and economic consequences, one of which is the loss of biological diversity. The rapid deployment of remote sensing (RS) satellites and development of RS analysis techniques in the past three decades have provided a reliable, effective, and practical way to characterize terrestrial ecosystem properties. Global estimates of tropical deforestation vary widely and range from 50,000 to 170,000 km2 /yr Recent FAO tropical deforestation estimates for 1990–1995 cite 116,756km2 / yr globally. Remote Sensing can prove to be a very useful tool in monitoring of forests and associated deforestation to a sufficient level of accuracy without the need of physically surveying the forest areas as many of them are physically inaccessible. The methodology for the assessment of forest cover using digital image processing (ERDAS) has been followed. The satellite data for the study was procured from USGS website in the digital format. While procuring the satellite data, care was taken to ensure that the data was cloud and aerosol free by making using of FLAASH atmospheric correction technique. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been used as a numerical indicator of the reduction in ground biomass. NDVI = (near I.R - Red)/ (near I.R + Red). After calculating the NDVI variations and associated mean we have analysed the change in ground biomass. Through this paper we have tried to indicate the rate of deforestation over a given period of time by comparing the forest cover at different time intervals. With the help of remote sensing and GIS techniques it is clearly shows that the total forest cover is continuously degrading and transforming into various land use/land cover category.

Keywords: remote sensing, deforestation, supervised classification, NDVI change detection

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Authors: Sunny Arora, Meghal A. Desai

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An impetus towards green consumerism and implementation of sustainable techniques, consumption of natural products and utilization of environment friendly techniques have gained accelerated acceptance. Butein, a natural colorant, has many medicinal properties apart from its use in dyeing industries. Extraction of butein from the flowers of flame of forest was carried out using ultrasonication bath. Solid loading (2-6 g), extraction time (30-50 min), volume of solvent (30-50 mL) and types of solvent (methanol, ethanol and water) have been studied to maximize the yield of butein using the Taguchi method. The highest yield of butein 4.67% (w/w) was obtained using 4 g of plant material, 40 min of extraction time and 30 mL volume of methanol as a solvent. The present method provided a greater reduction in extraction time compared to the conventional method of extraction. Hence, the outcome of the present investigation could further be utilized to develop the method at a higher scale.

Keywords: butein, flowers of Flame of the Forest, Taguchi method, ultrasonic bath

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Authors: Muhammad Nur Haniff Mohd Noor, Rokiah Kadir, Suriyani Muhamad

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Sustainable forest management and forest protection can be hampered by illegal logging. Illegal logging is not uncommon in many wood-producing countries. Hence, law enforcement, especially in timber-producing countries, is crucial in ensuring compliance with forestry related regulations, as well as confirming that all parties obey the rules and regulations prescribed by the authorities. However, enforcement officers are encountering various challenges and difficulties which have undermined the enforcement capacity and efficiency. The appropriate policy responses for these issues are important to resolve the problems in the long term and empowering enforcement capacity to meet future challenges of forest law enforcement. This paper is written according to extensive review of the articles and publications by The International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL), The International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), Chatham House and The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Subsequently, various books and journal articles are reviewed to gain further insight towards enforcement issues and challenges. This paper identifies several issues which consist of (1) insufficient enforcement capacity and resources (2) lack of coordination between various enforcement agencies, (3) corruption in the government and private sectors and (4) unclear legal frameworks related to the forestry sector. Next, this paper discusses appropriate policy responses to address each enforcement challenges according to various publications. This includes specific reports concerning forest law enforcement published by international forestry-related organizations. Therefore, lack of resources, inadequate synchronization between agencies, corruption, and legal issues present challenges to enforcement officers in their daily routines. Recommendations regarding proper policy responses to overcome the issues are of great importance in assisting forest authorities in prioritizing their resources appropriately.

Keywords: corruption, enforcement challenges, enforcement capacity, forest law enforcement, insufficient agency coordination, legislative ambiguity

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Authors: Sarah Ekuwo Okende, Armand Lokolo

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Gradually, the recognition of wild bees in processes affecting ecosystems and as major components of biodiversity has led to their protection as well as their areas in Kinshasa. And despite their decisive role in the well-being of men, the general public and decision-makers know nothing of the consequences of the loss of these, which are nevertheless of considerable magnitude. On this, they provide the pollination of sexual plants, and they also provide us with a number of goods that have a direct economic value, such as food, medicines, etc. And yet today, more than half of these wild bee species are threatened in Kinshasa. The causes of this phenomenon are largely unknown to the general public in the Kinshasa region. The objective of this study is to find the causes leading to the disappearance of wild bee species in Kinshasa. Also, this research contributes to current knowledge of the biodiversity of wild bees in the Kinshasa region and helps the authorities to develop a good policy for the conservation or safeguarding of this biodiversity, which plays a key role in maintaining the integrity of our ecosystems. We carried out field surveys using interview sheets in the forest areas of Kinshasa where wild bees populated them. To achieve this, an interview sheet was made, and it included questions on the causes of the disappearance of wild bees and the destruction of forest areas. The interviews were carried out with the natives of these forest areas. The results of this study show us that the destruction of habitats or natural areas and the use of pesticides are the causes of the disappearance of these wild bees.

Keywords: wild bees, pollinisation, forest, biodiversity, habitats, ecosystem, destruction, pesticide

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Authors: Pager Mansaram Pandit

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The present paper aims to changing trends of population in Nashik district. The spatial variation of changing trends of population from 1901 to 2011. Nasik, lying between 19° 33’ and 20° 53’ north latitude and 73° 16’ and 75° 16’, with an area of 15530 Sq. K.M.North South length is 120 km. East West length is 200 km. Nashik has a population of 6,109,052 of which 3,164,261 are males and 2,944,791 and females. Average literacy rate of Nashik district in 2011 was 82.91 compared to 80.96 in 2001. In 1901 the density was 52 and in 2011 the density was 393 per sq. km. The progressive growth rate from 1901 to 2012 was 11.25 to 642.22 percent, respectively. The population trend is calculated with the help of time series. In 1901 population was 45.44% more and less in 1941 i.e. -13.86. From 1921 to 1981 the population was below the population trend but after 1991 population it gradually increased. The average rainfall it receives is 1034 mm. In the present times, because of advances in good climate, industrialization, development of road, University level educational facilities, religious importance, cargo services, good quality of grapes, pomegranates and onions, more and more people are being attracted towards Nashik districts. Another cause for the increase in the population is the main attraction of Ramkund, Muktidham Temple, Kalaram Temple, Coin Museum, and Trimbakeshwar.

Keywords: density, growth, population, population trend

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Authors: Marcelo Araujo da Nóbrega, Ariel Moura Vilas Boas

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This study aims to characterize the physicochemical aspects of the soils of southeastern Chapada Diamantina - Bahia related to the phytophysiognomies of this area, rupestrian field, small savanna (savanna fields), small dense savanna (savanna fields), savanna (Cerrado), dry thorny forest (Caatinga), dry thorny forest/savanna, scrub (Carrasco - ecotone), forest island (seasonal semi-deciduous forest - Capão) and seasonal semi-deciduous forest. To achieve the research objective, soil samples were collected in each plant formation and analyzed in the soil laboratory of ESALQ - USP in order to identify soil fertility through the determination of pH, organic matter, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, potential acidity, sum of bases, cation exchange capacity and base saturation. The composition of soil particles was also checked; that is, the texture, step made in the terrestrial ecosystems laboratory of the Department of Ecology of USP and in the soil laboratory of ESALQ. Another important factor also studied was to show the variations in the vegetation cover in the region as a function of soil moisture in the different existing physiographic environments. Another study carried out was a comparison between the average soil moisture data with precipitation data from three locations with very different phytophysiognomies. The soils found in this part of Bahia can be classified into 5 classes, with a predominance of oxisols. All of these classes have a great diversity of physical and chemical properties, as can be seen in photographs and in particle size and fertility analyzes. The deepest soils are located in the Central Pediplano of Chapada Diamantina where the dirty field, the clean field, the executioner and the semideciduous seasonal forest (Capão) are located, and the shallower soils were found in the rupestrian field, dry thorny forest, and savanna fields, the latter located on a hillside. As for the variations in water in the region's soil, the data indicate that there were large spatial variations in humidity in both the rainy and dry periods.

Keywords: Bahia, Brazil, chapada diamantina, phytophysiognomies, soils

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Authors: Sri E. Wati, D. Roswidyatmoko, N. Maslahatun, Gunawan, Andhika B. Taji

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Natural resource is the main sources to fulfill human needs. Its utilization must consider not only human prosperity but also sustainability. Balance of natural resources is a tool to manage natural wealth and to control land use change. This tool is needed to organize land use planning as stated on spatial plan in a certain region. Balance of natural resources can be calculated by comparing two-series of natural resource data obtained at different year. In this case, four years data period of land and forest were used (2010 and 2014). Land use data were acquired through satellite image interpretation and field checking. By means of GIS analysis, its result was then assessed with land use plan. It is intended to evaluate whether existing land use is suitable with land use plan. If it is improper, what kind of efforts and policies must be done to overcome the situation. Subosukawonosraten is rapid developed areas in Central Java Province. This region consists of seven regencies/cities which are Sukoharjo Regency, Boyolali Regency, Surakarta City, Karanganyar Regency, Wonogiri Regency, Sragen Regency, and Klaten Regency. This region is regarding to several former areas under Karasidenan Surakarta and their location is adjacent to Surakarta. Balance of forest resources show that width of forest area is not significantly changed. Some land uses within the area are slightly changed. Some rice field areas are converted into settlement (0.03%) whereas water bodies become vacant areas (0.09%). On the other hand, balance of land resources state that there are many land use changes in this region. Width area of rice field decreases 428 hectares and more than 50% of them have been transformed into settlement area and 11.21% is converted into buildings such as factories, hotels, and other infrastructures. It occurs mostly in Sragen, Sukoharjo, and Karanganyar Regency. The results illustrate that land use change in this region is mostly influenced by increasing of population number. Some agricultural lands have been converted into built-up area since demand of settlement, industrial area, and other infrastructures also increases. Unfortunately, recent utilization of more than a half of total area is not appropriate with land use plan declared in spatial planning document. It means, local government shall develop a strict regulation and law enforcement related to any violation in land use management.

Keywords: balance, forest, land, spatial plan

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Authors: Marie Madeleine Sarzi Inacio, Ligiane Carolina Leite Dauzacker, Rodrigo Henriques Lopes Da Silva

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The climate changes resulting from human activity have increased interest in more sustainable production practices to reduce and offset pollutant emissions. Brazil, with its vast areas capable of carbon absorption, holds a significant advantage in this context. However, to optimize the country's sustainable potential, it is important to establish a robust carbon market with clear rules for the eligibility and validation of projects aimed at reducing and offsetting Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, our objective is to conduct a feasibility analysis through a case study to evaluate the implementation of an urban forest credits standard in Brazil, using the Urban Forest Credits (UFC) model implemented in the United States as a reference. Thus, the city of Ribeirão Preto, located in Brazil, was selected to assess the availability of green areas. With the CO2 emissions value from the metalworking industry, it was possible to analyze information in the case study, considering the activity. The QGIS software was used to map potential urban forest areas, which can connect to various types of geospatial databases. Although the chosen municipality has little vegetative coverage, the mapping identified at least eight areas that fit the standard definitions within the delimited urban perimeter. The outlook was positive, and the implementation of projects like Urban Forest Credits (UFC) adapted to the Brazilian reality has great potential to benefit the country in the carbon market and contribute to achieving its Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction goals.

Keywords: carbon neutrality, metalworking industry, carbon credits, urban forestry credits

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