Search results for: abnormal returns

Authors: Maria Debora Braga, Luigi Riso, Maria Grazia Zoia

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Risk-based approaches to asset allocation are portfolio construction methods that do not rely on the input of expected returns for the asset classes in the investment universe and only use risk information. They include the Minimum Variance Strategy (MV strategy), the traditional (volatility-based) Risk Parity Strategy (SRP strategy), the Most Diversified Portfolio Strategy (MDP strategy) and, for many, the Equally Weighted Strategy (EW strategy). All the mentioned approaches were based on portfolio volatility as a reference risk measure but in 2023, the Kurtosis-based Risk Parity strategy (KRP strategy) and the Minimum Kurtosis strategy (MK strategy) were introduced. Understandably, they used the fourth root of the portfolio-fourth moment as a proxy for portfolio kurtosis to work with a homogeneous function of degree one. This paper contributes mainly theoretically and methodologically to the framework of risk-based asset allocation approaches with two steps forward. First, a new and more flexible objective function considering a linear combination (with positive coefficients that sum to one) of portfolio volatility and portfolio kurtosis is used to alternatively serve a risk minimization goal or a homogeneous risk distribution goal. Hence, the new basic idea consists in extending the achievement of typical risk-based approaches’ goals to a combined risk measure. To give the rationale behind operating with such a risk measure, it is worth remembering that volatility and kurtosis are expressions of uncertainty, to be read as dispersion of returns around the mean and that both preserve adherence to a symmetric framework and consideration for the entire returns distribution as well, but also that they differ from each other in that the former captures the “normal” / “ordinary” dispersion of returns, while the latter is able to catch the huge dispersion. Therefore, the combined risk metric that uses two individual metrics focused on the same phenomena but differently sensitive to its intensity allows the asset manager to express, in the context of an objective function by varying the “relevance coefficient” associated with the individual metrics, alternatively, a wide set of plausible investment goals for the portfolio construction process while serving investors differently concerned with tail risk and traditional risk. Since this is the first study that also implements risk-based approaches using a combined risk measure, it becomes of fundamental importance to investigate the portfolio effects triggered by this innovation. The paper also offers a second contribution. Until the recent advent of the MK strategy and the KRP strategy, efforts to highlight interesting properties of risk-based approaches were inevitably directed towards the traditional MV strategy and SRP strategy. Previous literature established an increasing order in terms of portfolio volatility, starting from the MV strategy, through the SRP strategy, arriving at the EQ strategy and provided the mathematical proof for the “equalization effect” concerning marginal risks when the MV strategy is considered, and concerning risk contributions when the SRP strategy is considered. Regarding the validity of similar conclusions when referring to the MK strategy and KRP strategy, the development of a theoretical demonstration is still pending. This paper fills this gap.

Keywords: risk parity, portfolio kurtosis, risk diversification, asset allocation

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Authors: Ahmed Ashit

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Image fusion is a significant and efficient image processing method used for detecting different types of tumors. This method has been used as an effective combination technique for obtaining high quality images that combine anatomy and physiology of an organ. It is the main key in the huge biomedical machines for diagnosing cancer such as PET-CT machine. This thesis aims to develop an image analysis system for the detection of the eye tumor. Different image processing methods are used to extract the tumor and then mark it on the original image. The images are first smoothed using median filtering. The background of the image is subtracted, to be then added to the original, results in a brighter area of interest or tumor area. The images are adjusted in order to increase the intensity of their pixels which lead to clearer and brighter images. once the images are enhanced, the edges of the images are detected using canny operators results in a segmented image comprises only of the pupil and the tumor for the abnormal images, and the pupil only for the normal images that have no tumor. The images of normal and abnormal images are collected from two sources: “Miles Research” and “Eye Cancer”. The computerized experimental results show that the developed image fusion based eye tumor detection system is capable of detecting the eye tumor and segment it to be superimposed on the original image.

Keywords: image fusion, eye tumor, canny operators, superimposed

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Authors: Patrizia Bonaventura, Magda Di Renzo

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This project aims to measure and assess the voice quality in children with autism. Few previous studies exist which have analyzed the voice quality of individuals with autism: abnormal voice characteristics have been found, like a high pitch, great pitch range, and sing-song quality. Existing studies did not focus specifically on Italian-speaking children’s voices and provided analysis of a few acoustic parameters. The present study aimed to gather more data and to perform acoustic analysis of the voice of children with autism in order to identify patterns of abnormal voice features that might shed some light on the causes of the dysphonia and possibly be used to create a pediatric assessment tool for early identification of autism. The participants were five native Italian-speaking boys with autism between the age of 4 years and 10 years (mean 6.8 ± SD 1.4). The children had a diagnosis of autism, were verbal, and had no other comorbid conditions (like Down syndrome or ADHD). The voices of the autistic children were recorded in the production of sustained vowels [ah] and [ih] and of sentences from the Italian version of the CAPE-V voice assessment test. The following voice parameters, representative of normal quality, were analyzed by acoustic spectrography through Praat: Speaking Fundamental Frequency, F0 range, average intensity, and dynamic range. The results showed that the pitch parameters (Speaking Fundamental Frequency and F0 range), as well as the intensity parameters (average intensity and dynamic range), were significantly different from the relative normal reference thresholds. Also, variability among children was found, so confirming a tendency revealed in previous studies of individual variation in these aspects of voice quality. The results indicate a general pattern of abnormal voice quality characterized by a high pitch and large variations in pitch and intensity. These acoustic voice characteristics found in Italian-speaking autistic children match those found in children speaking other languages, indicating that autism symptoms affecting voice quality might be independent of the native language of the children.

Keywords: autism, voice disorders, speech science, acoustic analysis of voice

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Authors: Rafael Marinho de Andrade, Elcio Hideti Shiguemori, Rafael Duarte Coelho dos Santos

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Relying on computer vision, many clever things are possible in order to make the world safer and optimized on resource management, especially considering time and attention as manageable resources, once the modern world is very abundant in cameras from inside our pockets to above our heads while crossing the streets. Thus, automated solutions based on computer vision techniques to detect, react, or even prevent relevant events such as robbery, car crashes and traffic jams can be accomplished and implemented for the sake of both logistical and surveillance improvements. In this paper, we present an approach for vehicles’ abnormal behaviors detection from highway footages, in which the vectorial data of the vehicles’ displacement are extracted directly from surveillance cameras footage through object detection and tracking with a deep convolutional neural network and inserted into a long-short term memory neural network for behavior classification. The results show that the classifications of behaviors are consistent and the same principles may be applied to other trackable objects and scenarios as well.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, behavior detection, computer vision, convolutional neural networks, LSTM, highway footage

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Authors: Indu Bala Sethi, Meena Sewhag, Rakesh Kumar, Parveen Kumar

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Field experiment was conducted at Pulse Research Area of CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar during rabi 2012-13 to study the economics of chickpea cultivars as influenced by sowing time and seed rate on sandy loam soils under irrigated conditions. The factorial experiment consisting of 24 treatment combinations with two sowing time (1st fortnight of November and 1st fortnight of December.) and four cultivars (H09-23, H08-18, C-235 and HC-1) kept in main plots while three seed rates viz. 40 kg ha-1, 50 kg ha-1 and 60 kg ha-1 was laid out in split plot design with three replications. The crop was sown with common row spacing of 30 cm as per the dates of sowing. The fertilizer was applied in the form of di- ammonium phosphate. The soil of the experimental site was deep sandy loam having pH of 7.9, EC of 0.13 dS/m and low in organic carbon (0.34%), low in available N status (193.36 kg ha-1), medium in available P2O5 (32.18 kg ha-1) and high in available K2O (249.67 kg ha-1). The crop was irrigated as and when required so as to maintain adequate soil moisture in the root zone The crop was sprayed with monocrotophos (1.25 l/ha) at initiation of flowering and at pod filling stage to protect the crop from pod borer attack. The yield was measured at the time of harvest. The cost of field preparation, sowing of seeds, thinning, weeding, plant protection, harvesting and cleaning contributed to fixed cost. The experiment was laid out in a split plot design with two sowing time (1st fortnight of November and 1st fortnight of December.) and four cultivars (H09-23, H08-18, C-235 and HC-1) kept in main plots while three seed rates viz. 40 kg ha-1, 50 kg ha-1 and 60 kg ha-1 were kept in subplots and replicated thrice. Results revealed that 1st fortnight of November sowing recorded significantly higher gross (Rs.1, 01,254 ha-1), net returns (Rs. 68,504 ha-1) and BC (3.09) ratio as compared to delayed crop of chickpea. Highest gross (Rs.91826 ha-1), net returns (Rs. 59076ha-1) and BC ratio (2.81) was recorded with H08-18. Higher value of cost of cultivation of chickpea was observed in higher seed rate than the lower ones. However no significant variation in net and gross returns was observed due to seed rates. Highest BC (2.72) ratio was recorded with 50 kg ha-1 which differs significantly from 60 kg ha-1 but was at par with 40 kg ha-1. This is because of higher grain yield obtained with 50 kg ha-1 seed rate. Net profit for farmers growing chickpea with seed rate of 50 kg ha-1 was higher than the farmers growing chickpea with seed rate of 40 and 60 kg ha.

Keywords: chickpea, cultivars, seed rate, sowing time

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Authors: Bharati Mehta, Manish Parakh, Bharti Bhandari, Sneha Ambwani

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Speech and language delay (SLD) is seen commonly as a co-morbidity in children having severe resistant focal and generalized, syndromic and symptomatic epilepsies. It is however not clear whether epilepsy contributes to or is a mere association in the pathogenesis of SLD. Also, it is acknowledged that Auditory Brainstem Evoked Responses (ABER), besides used for evaluating hearing threshold, also aid in prognostication of neurological disorders and abnormalities in the hearing pathway in the brainstem. There is no circumscribed or surrogate neurophysiologic laboratory marker to adjudge the extent of SLD. The current study was designed to evaluate the abnormalities in Electroencephalography (EEG) and ABER in children with SLD who do not have an overt hearing deficit or autism. 94 children of age group 2-8 years with predominant SLD and without any gross motor developmental delay, head injury, gross hearing disorder, cleft lip/palate and autism were selected. Standard video Electroencephalography using the 10:20 international system and ABER after click stimulus with intensities 110 db until 40 db was performed in all children. EEG was abnormal in 47.9% (n= 45; 36 boys and 9 girls) children. In the children with abnormal EEG, 64.5% (n=29) had an abnormal background, 57.8% (n=27) had presence of generalized interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs), 20% (n=9) had focal epileptiform discharges exclusively from left side and 33.3% (n=15) had multifocal IEDs occurring both in isolation or associated with generalised abnormalities. In ABER, surprisingly, the peak latencies for waves I, III & V, inter-peak latencies I-III & I-V, III-V and wave amplitude ratio V/I, were found within normal limits in both ears of all the children. Thus in the current study it is certain that presence of generalized IEDs in EEG are seen in higher frequency with SLD and focal IEDs are seen exclusively in left hemisphere in these children. It may be possible that even with generalized EEG abnormalities present in these children, left hemispheric abnormalities as a part of this generalized dysfunction may be responsible for the speech and language dysfunction. The current study also emphasizes that ABER may not be routinely recommended as diagnostic or prognostic tool in children with SLD without frank hearing deficit or autism, thus reducing the burden on electro physiologists, laboratories and saving time and financial resources.

Keywords: ABER, EEG, speech, language delay

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Authors: Wee Tong Liaw, Elaine Wong Yee Sing

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Since 2001, many companies in Singapore have voluntarily participated in the bi-annual Singapore HEALTH Award initiated by the Health Promotion Board of Singapore (HPB). The Singapore HEALTH Award (SHA), is an industry wide award and assessment process. SHA assesses and recognizes employers in Singapore for implementing a comprehensive and sustainable health promotion programme at their workplaces. The rationale for implementing a sustained health promoting workplace and participating in SHA is obvious when company management is convinced that healthier employees, business productivity, and profitability are positively correlated. However, performing research or empirical studies on the impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on stock returns are not likely to yield any interests in the absence of a systematic and independent assessment on the comprehensiveness and sustainability of a health promoting workplace in most developed economies. The principles of diversification and mean-variance efficient portfolio in Modern Portfolio Theory developed by Markowitz (1952) laid the foundation for the works of many financial economists and researchers, and among others, the development of the Capital Asset Pricing Model from the work of Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) and Mossin (1966), and the Fama-French Three-Factor Model of Fama and French (1992). This research seeks to support the rationale by studying whether there is a significant relationship or impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on the performance of companies listed on the SGX. The research shall form and test hypotheses pertaining to the impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on company’s performances, including stock returns, of companies that participated in the SHA and companies that did not participate in the SHA. In doing so, the research would be able to determine whether corporate and fund manager should consider the significance of a sustained health promoting workplace as a risk factor to explain the stock returns of companies listed on the SGX. With respect to Singapore’s stock market, this research will test the significance and relevance of a health promoting workplace using the Singapore Health Award as a proxy for non-diversifiable risk factor to explain stock returns. This study will examine the significance of a health promoting workplace on a company’s performance and study its impact on stock price performance and beta and examine if it has higher explanatory power than the traditional single factor asset pricing model CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model). To study the significance there are three key questions pertinent to the research study. I) Given a choice, would an investor be better off investing in a listed company with a sustained health promoting workplace i.e. a Singapore Health Award’s recipient? II) The Singapore Health Award has four levels of award starting from Bronze, Silver, Gold to Platinum. Would an investor be indifferent to the level of award when investing in a listed company who is a Singapore Health Award’s recipient? III) Would an asset pricing model combining FAMA-French Three Factor Model and ‘Singapore Health Award’ factor be more accurate than single factor Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Three Factor Model itself?

Keywords: asset pricing model, company's performance, stock prices, sustained health promoting workplace

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Authors: Hamed Movahedizadeh, Annuar Md Nassir, Mehdi Karimimalayer, Navid Samimi Sedeh, Ehsan Bagherpour

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The aim of this paper is to evaluate Tehran’s Stock Exchange (TSE) performance regarding with impact of four macroeconomic factors including world crude Oil Price (OP), World Gold Price (GP), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and total Supplied Oil by Iran (SO) from January 2006 to December 2012 that Iran faced with economic and oil sanctions. Iran's exports of crude oil and lease condensate reduced to roughly 1.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, compared to 2.5 million bbl/d in 2011 due to hard sanctions. Monthly data are collected and subjected to a battery of tests through ordinary least square by EViews7. This study found that gold price and oil price are positively correlated with stock returns while total oil supplied and consumer price index have negative relationship with stock index, however, consumer price index tends to become insignificant in stock index. While gold price and consumer price index have short run relationship with TSE index at 10% of significance level this amount for oil price is significant at 5% and there is no significant short run relationship between supplied oil and Tehran stock returns. Moreover, this study found that all macroeconomic factors have long-run relationship with Tehran Stock Exchange Index.

Keywords: consumer price index, gold price, macroeconomic, oil price, sanction, stock market, supplied oil

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Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hosuk Shin, Eun-Hak Lee, Seung-Young Kho

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This study analyzed and visualized the rental and return data of the public bike sharing system in Seoul, Ttareungyi, from September 2015 to October 2017. With the surge of system users, the number of times of collection and distribution in 2017 increased by three times compared to 2016. The city plans to deploy about 20,000 public bicycles by the end of 2017 to expand the system. Based on about 3.3 million historical data, we calculated the average trip time and the number of trips from one station to another station. The mobility patterns between stations are graphically displayed using R and Tableau. Demand for public bike sharing system is heavily influenced by day and weather. As a result of plotting the number of rentals and returns of some stations on weekdays and weekends at intervals of one hour, there was a difference in rental patterns. As a result of analysis of the rental and return patterns by time of day, there were a lot of returns at the morning peak and more rentals at the afternoon peak at the center of the city. It means that stock of bikes varies largely in the time zone and public bikes should be rebalanced timely. The result of this study can be applied as a primary data to construct the demand forecasting function of the station when establishing the rebalancing strategy of the public bicycle.

Keywords: demand forecasting, mobility patterns, public bike sharing system, visualization

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Authors: Moon Jung Kim, Guil Rhim

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The clinical sensitivity of the “VEUPLEXTM TBI assay”, a clinical trial medical device, in mild traumatic brain injury was 28.6% (95% CI, 19.7%-37.5%), and the clinical specificity was 94.0% (95% CI, 89.3%). -98.7%). In addition, when the results analyzed by marker were put together, the sensitivity was higher when interpreting the two tests together than the two tests, UCHL1 and GFAP alone. Additionally, when sensitivity and specificity were analyzed based on CT results for the mild traumatic brain injury patient group, the clinical sensitivity for 2 CT-positive cases was 50.0% (95% CI: 1.3%-98.7%), and 19 CT-negative cases. The clinical specificity for cases was 68.4% (95% CI: 43.5% - 87.4%). Since the low clinical sensitivity for the two CT-positive cases was not statistically significant due to the small number of samples analyzed, it was judged necessary to secure and analyze more samples in the future. Regarding the clinical specificity analysis results for 19 CT-negative cases, there were a large number of patients who were actually clinically diagnosed with mild traumatic brain injury but actually received a CT-negative result, and about 31.6% of them showed abnormal results on VEUPLEXTM TBI assay. Although traumatic brain injury could not be detected in 31.6% of the CT scans, the possibility of actually suffering a mild brain injury could not be ruled out, so it was judged that this could be confirmed through follow-up observation of the patient. In addition, among patients with mild traumatic brain injury, CT examinations were not performed in many cases because the symptoms were very mild, but among these patients, about 25% or more showed abnormal results in the VEUPLEXTM TBI assay. In fact, no damage is observed with the naked eye immediately after traumatic brain injury, and traumatic brain injury is not observed even on CT. But in some cases, brain hemorrhage may occur (delayed cerebral hemorrhage) after a certain period of time, so the patients who did show abnormal results on VEUPLEXTM TBI assay should be followed up for the delayed cerebral hemorrhage. In conclusion, it was judged that it was difficult to judge mild traumatic brain injury with the VEUPLEXTM TBI assay only through clinical findings without CT results, that is, based on the GCS value. Even in the case of CT, it does not detect all mild traumatic brain injury, so it is difficult to necessarily judge that there is no traumatic brain injury, even if there is no evidence of traumatic brain injury in CT. And in the long term, more patients should be included to evaluate the usefulness of the VEUPLEXTM TBI assay in the detection of microscopic traumatic brain injuries without using CT.

Keywords: brain injury, traumatic brain injury, GFAP, UCHL1

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Authors: Malarvizhi Selvaraj, Paul Fergus, Andy Shaw

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Uterine contractions produced during labour have the potential to damage the foetus by diminishing the maternal blood flow to the placenta. In order to observe this phenomenon labour and delivery are routinely monitored using cardiotocography monitors. An obstetrician usually makes the diagnosis of foetus hypoxia by interpreting cardiotocography recordings. However, cardiotocography capture and interpretation is time-consuming and subjective, often lead to misclassification that causes damage to the foetus and unnecessary caesarean section. Both of these have a high impact on the foetus and the cost to the national healthcare services. Automatic detection of foetal heart rate may be an objective solution to help to reduce unnecessary medical interventions, as reported in several studies. This paper aim is to provide a system for better identification and interpretation of abnormalities of the fetal heart rate using RStudio. An open dataset of 552 Intrapartum recordings has been filtered with 0.034 Hz filters in an attempt to remove noise while keeping as much of the discriminative data as possible. Features were chosen following an extensive literature review, which concluded with FIGO features such as acceleration, deceleration, mean, variance and standard derivation. The five features were extracted from 552 recordings. Using these features, recordings will be classified either normal or abnormal. If the recording is abnormal, it has got more chances of hypoxia.

Keywords: cardiotocography, foetus, intrapartum, hypoxia

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Authors: Sara Mouffouk, Fatma Belaid, Asma Hechani, Chaima Mouffouk

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Cancer of the cervix caused by HPV (human papillomavirus ) is for many years a real public health problem, it is ranked 2nd deadly female cancer kills more than 270 000 women each year worldwide. In Algeria, the mortality of cervical cancer decreases with the impact, but the prognosis of these cancers remains bleak: The 5-year relative survival is 60 %. The mode of transmission is usually sexuel. Our study was undertaken to show the link between HPV and cervical cancer and the importance of Pap smear screening in this type of pathology. On the total sample, 76.11 % showed abnormal cervical smears of which 13% have mild cases and hormonal reaction Change, and 44% represent inflammatory smears and normal cases 35%, while long seven years from 2005 to 2012. Thus, 43% of abnormal smear results between ASCUS, AGUS, low and high grade carcinoma and adenocarcinoma and 57 % of other cases of unknown origin. The average age of women at risk of developing adenocarcinoma is 45-50 with a 67% to 33% of the same risk in women of age group 41-45 years although the percentage of cases of HPV infected patients was 2% in the past seven years. We found that with increasing age, the risk is argued. Due to several factors such as multiparty can reduced the resistance of the uterine epithelium and even as the multi that promotes contamination HPV causes repeated infections with HPV.

Keywords: cervical cancer, human papillomavirus (HPV) screening, prevention, vaccines

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Authors: Tsirekidze M., Aprasidze T.

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Introduction: The problem of dissocial behavior is at the heart of the social sciences and psychiatry; however, it should be noted that its psychiatric aspect is little studied, and some issues of the problem are still controversial. This is complicated by the diversity of terminological concepts in defining “dissocial behavior”, “behavioral disorder”, “abnormal behavior”, “deviant behavior”, “delinquent behavior”, etc. In literature, there is no comprehensive definition of the essence of dissociative behavior. Numerous attempts to systematize dissociative disorders should also be considered unsatisfactory, which is primarily related to the lack of solid criteria for defining this group of disorders. According to the clinical classification, dissocial behavior is divided into psychotic and non-psychotic forms. Such differentiation is conditional in nature since it is not always possible to draw precise, clear distinctions between these forms, and in addition, there is a transition of a behavior disorder or so-called intermediate forms. One group of authors distinguishes two main forms of deviant behavior in terms of both theoretical and practical significance - non-pathological and pathological. In recent years, especially, the non-pathological form of behavior disorder has become topical. It refers to a large group of forms of deviant behavior, the emergence of which is associated with psychologically full-fledged reactions of children and adolescents to stressful situations and extreme conditions. According to the authors, its concept is understandable-it is difficult to draw a line between psychologically understandable reactions and psychogenically induced reactive states. In addition, the concept of "normal" child and adolescent is, to some extent, a vague concept, as in medicine, any definition of the norm. From a practical (more precisely, pragmatic) point of view, the term "abnormal behavioral disorder" undoubtedly makes sense, especially for the purpose of forensic psychiatric examination. Non-pathological deviation mainly includes transient situational reactions, microsocial-pedagogical backwardness, and character accentuation.Deviant behavior was predominantly manifested in a non-pathological form, which, in our opinion, is due to the difficult socio-economic situation of the country, moral-ethical deprivation, and expressed frustration. By itself, society is an indicator of deviation. Add to this situation complicated factors such as micro-social-pedagogical leave, unfavorable family environment, and parenting defects. Consideration is also given to the connection of acceptable deviation with the personal structural features of the adolescent. Aim: The topic of our discussion is the dissocial behavior of the non-psychotic register. Methods: We surveyed 120 adolescents with deviant behaviors. 61% of them were diagnosed with various neuropsychiatric disorders. Results: Abnormal forms of deviant behavior were observed in 13%, and non-pathological forms in -69%. A combination of non-pathological and pathological forms was present in 10% of cases. In the case of non-pathological deviation, microsocial-pedagogical acceptance was revealed in 62%, character accentuation in 22%; during the pathological forms, pathological reactions were observed in 21%, and abnormal formation of the person -21%. Conclusion: It should be emphasized that in case of any of the above defects, if the so-called family psychosis, and medical and pedagogical habilitation measures for the adolescent, it is quite possible to prevent the abnormal development of the child's personality, correct his character, regulate behavior and develop positive labor-social relations.

Keywords: dissocial personality, deviant behavior, dissocial, delinquent behavior

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Authors: Handie Pramana Putra, Ani Dijah Rahajoe

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The proliferation of smart devices and advancements in mobile communication technologies have permeated various facets of life with the widespread influence of e-commerce. Detecting abnormal transactions holds paramount significance in this realm due to the potential for substantial financial losses. Moreover, the fusion of data flow and control flow assumes a critical role in the exploration of process modeling and data analysis, contributing significantly to the accuracy and security of business processes. This paper introduces an alternative approach to identify abnormal transactions through a model that integrates both data and control flows. Referred to as the Extended Data Petri net (DPNE), our model encapsulates the entire process, encompassing user login to the e-commerce platform and concluding with the payment stage, including the mobile transaction process. We scrutinize the model's structure, formulate an algorithm for detecting anomalies in pertinent data, and elucidate the rationale and efficacy of the comprehensive system model. A case study validates the responsive performance of each system component, demonstrating the system's adeptness in evaluating every activity within mobile transactions. Ultimately, the results of anomaly detection are derived through a thorough and comprehensive analysis.

Keywords: database, data analysis, DPNE, extended data flow, e-commerce

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Authors: Kamran Baksh Soomro, Amin Talei, Sina Alaghmand

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Due to the declining freshwater availability to agriculture in many areas, the utilization of saline irrigation requires more consideration. For this purpose, the effects of saline irrigation on the economics of crop yield and soil salinity should be understood. A two-year field experiment was carried out during 2017-18 with three replications to investigate the effect of saline groundwater on the economics of bitter gourd production and soil salinity status after harvesting the crop. Two irrigation treatments, i.e., fresh quality irrigation water (IT₁ EC 0.56 dS.m⁻¹ (control) and other is saline groundwater ( IT₂ EC 2.56 dS.m⁻¹) were used under drip system of irrigation. Cost-benefit analysis is often used to assess adaptation approaches. In this study, it has been observed that the salts under IT₁ (fresh quality water) and IT₂ (saline groundwater) did not accumulate in the wetted zone. However, the salts were observed deposited at wetted periphery under both the treatments after the crop end at all the three sampling depths under drip system of irrigation. Moreover, the costs and benefits associated with different irrigation treatments for two consecutive seasons for bitter-gourd cultivation were also investigated, and it was found that the average gross returns per hectare in season 1 were USD 5008.22 and 4454.78 under irrigation treatment IT₁ and IT₂ respectively. Whereas in season 2 the average gross returns per hectare were 3713.47 and 3140.51 under IT₁ and IT₂ respectively.

Keywords: ground-water, soil salinity, drip irrigation, wetted zone, wetted periphery, cost benefit analysis

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Authors: Dina Magnaye

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In the Philippines, the performance of the agricultural sector is gauged through crop productivity and returns from farm production rather than the biodiversity in the agricultural ecosystem. Agricultural development hinges on the overall goal of increasing productivity through intensive agriculture, monoculture system, utilization of high yielding varieties in plants, and genetic upgrading in animals. This merits an analysis of the role of agro-biodiversity in terms of increasing productivity, food security and economic returns from community-based pro-biodiversity enterprises. These enterprises conserve biodiversity while equitably sharing production income in the utilization of biological resources. The study aims to determine how community-based pro-biodiversity enterprises become instrumental in local climate change adaptation and agro-biodiversity conservation as input to local green economic development planning. It also involves an assessment of the role of agrobiodiversity in terms of increasing productivity, food security and economic returns from community-based pro-biodiversity enterprises. The perceptions of the local community members both in urban and upland rural areas on community-based pro-biodiversity enterprises were evaluated. These served as a basis in developing a planning modality that can be mainstreamed in the management of local green economic enterprises to benefit the environment, provide local income opportunities, conserve species diversity, and sustain environment-friendly farming systems and practices. The interviews conducted with organic farmer-owners, entrepreneur-organic farmers, and organic farm workers revealed that pro-biodiversity enterprise such as organic farming involved the cyclic use of natural resources within the carrying capacity of a farm; recognition of the value of tradition and culture especially in the upland rural area; enhancement of socio-economic capacity; conservation of ecosystems in harmony with nature; and climate change mitigation. The suggested planning modality for community-based pro-biodiversity enterprises for a green economy encompasses four (4) phases to include community resource or capital asset profiling; stakeholder vision development; strategy formulation for sustained enterprises; and monitoring and evaluation.

Keywords: agro-biodiversity, agro-biodiversity conservation, local green economy, organic farming, pro-biodiversity enterprise

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Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

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Authors: Sijie Chen, Xiaofang Chen, Juan Wang, Yingying Zhang, Yu Hong, Wanyu Zhuang, Xinxin Huang, Ping Ou, Longsheng Huang

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Purpose: Autistic symptom improvement can be observed in children treated with acupuncture, but the mechanism is still being explored. In the present study, we used scalp acupuncture to treat autism rat model, and then their improvement in the abnormal behaviors and specific mechanisms behind were revealed by detecting animal behaviors, analyzing the RNA sequencing of the prefrontal cortex(PFC), and observing the ultrastructure of PFC neurons under the transmission electron microscope. Methods: On gestational day 12.5, Wistar rats were given valproic acid (VPA) by intraperitoneal injection, and their offspring were considered to be reliable rat models of autism. They were randomized to VPA or VPA-acupuncture group (n=8). Offspring of Wistar pregnant rats that were simultaneously injected with saline were randomly selected as the wild-type group (WT). VPA_acupuncture group rats received acupuncture intervention at 23 days of age for 4 weeks, and the other two groups followed without intervention. After the intervention, all experimental rats underwent behavioral tests. Immediately afterward, they were euthanized by cervical dislocation, and their prefrontal cortex was isolated for RNA sequencing and transmission electron microscopy. Results: The main results are as follows: 1. Animal behavioural tests: VPA group rats showed more anxiety-like behaviour and repetitive, stereotyped behaviour than WT group rats. While VPA group rats showed less spatial exploration ability, activity level, social interaction, and social novelty preference than WT group rats. It was gratifying to observe that acupuncture indeed improved these abnormal behaviors of autism rat model. 2. RNA-sequencing: The three groups of rats differed in the expression and enrichment pathways of multiple genes related to synaptic function, neural signal transduction, and circadian rhythm regulation. Our experiments indicated that acupuncture can alleviate the major symptoms of ASD by improving these neurological abnormalities. 3. Under the transmission electron microscopy, several lysosomes and mitochondrial structural abnormalities were observed in the prefrontal neurons of VPA group rats, which were manifested as atrophy of the mitochondrial membran, blurring or disappearance of the mitochondrial cristae, and even vacuolization. Moreover, the number of synapses and synaptic vesicles was relatively small. Conversely, the mitochondrial structure of rats in the WT group and VPA_acupuncture was normal, and the number of synapses and synaptic vesicles was relatively large. Conclusion: Acupuncture effectively improved the abnormal behaviors of autism rat model and the ultrastructure of the PFC neurons, which might worked by improving their abnormal synaptic function, synaptic plasticity and promoting neuronal signal transduction.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, acupuncture, animal behavior, RNA sequencing, transmission electron microscope

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Authors: Hui Zhang, Sherif Beskhyroun

Abstract:

Structural Health monitoring systems (SHM) are commonly used to identify and assess structural damage. In terms of damage detection, SHM needs to periodically collect data from sensors placed in the structure as damage-sensitive features. This includes abnormal changes caused by the strain field and abnormal symptoms of the structure, such as damage and deterioration. Currently, deploying sensors on a large scale in a building structure is a challenge. In this study, a highly stretchable strain sensors are used in this study to collect data sets of strain generated on the surface of full-size reinforced concrete (RC) frames under extreme cyclic load application. This sensing sheet can be switched freely between the test bending strain and the axial strain to achieve two different configurations. On this basis, the deep neural network prediction model of the frame beam and frame column is established. The training results show that the method can accurately predict the strain value and has good generalization ability. The two deep neural network prediction models will also be deployed in the SHM system in the future as part of the intelligent strain sensor system.

Keywords: strain sensing sheets, deep neural networks, strain measurement, SHM system, RC frames

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Authors: Carlson Murray, Ali Lazrak

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Robust experimental evidence of systematic violations of expected utility (EU) establishes that individuals facing risk overweight utility from low probability gains and losses when making choices. These findings motivated development of models of preferences with probability weighting functions, such as rank dependent utility (RDU). We solve for the optimal investing strategy of an RDU investor in a dynamic binomial setting from which we derive implications for investing behavior. We show that relative to EU investors with constant relative risk aversion, commonly measured probability weighting functions produce optimal RDU terminal wealth with significant downside protection and upside exposure. We additionally find that in contrast to EU investors, RDU investors optimally choose a portfolio that contains fair bets that provide payo↵s that can be interpreted as lottery outcomes or exposure to idiosyncratic returns. In a calibrated version of the model, we calculate that RDU investors would be willing to pay 5% of their initial wealth for the freedom to trade away from an optimal EU wealth allocation. The dynamic trading strategy that supports the optimal wealth allocation implies portfolio weights that are independent of initial wealth but requires higher risky share after good stock return histories. Optimal trading also implies the possibility of non-participation when historical returns are poor. Our model fills a gap in the literature by providing new quantitative and qualitative predictions that can be tested experimentally or using data on household wealth and portfolio choice.

Keywords: behavioral finance, probability weighting, portfolio choice

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Authors: Hanifa Maryani Ahmad, Muslim Yusuf

Abstract:

Background: Unilateral crossbite can be defined as an abnormal transverse relationship between the upper and lower teeth where the mandibular buccal cusp occluding to the maxillary buccal cusp and which involves only one side of the arch. This report describes the treatment of an adolescent female with Class III malocclussion unilateral crossbite resulting from a mildly constricted maxillary arch. The patient had a Class III skeletal relationship, Class III molar relationships, unilateral crossbite on the left side, and deviated midlines. Objectives: The treatment objectives were to correct the abnormal transverse relationship, achieve proper dental inclination, and correct the unilateral crossbites to improve the facial profile. Case management: The treatment protocol was using transpalatal arch with extension arm modification to expand the maxillary arch. Following the levelling and aligning stage of treatment, using a vertical loop while mandibular arch was expanded after getting an end to end relationship on the anterior side. Results: Corrections of the unilateral crossbite were achieved in 4 months. The treatment is still on process because the canines relationship were not corrected. Conclusions: This report highlights a treatment using transpalatal arch with extension arm modification that can be used to expand the transverse width of an arch to correct the discrepancy. Even though the treatment processes were still ongoing, the correction of the unilateral crossbite have been achieved in 4 months by only using the transpalatal arch.

Keywords: crossbite unilateral, late growing, non-extraction, transpalatal arch

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Authors: Li-Hsueh Chen

Abstract:

Efficient operation is more and more important for managers of hotels. Unlike the manufacturing industry, hotels cannot store their products. In addition, many hotels provide room service, and food and beverage service simultaneously. When efficiencies of hotels are evaluated, the internal structure should be considered. Hence, based on the operational characteristics of hotels, this study proposes a DEA model to simultaneously assess the efficiencies among the room production division, food and beverage production division, room service division and food and beverage service division. However, not only the enhancement of efficiency but also the adjustment of scale can improve the performance. In terms of the adjustment of scale, scale elasticity or returns to scale can help to managers to make decisions concerning expansion or contraction. In order to construct a reasonable approach to measure the efficiencies and scale elasticities of hotels, this study builds an alternative variable-returns-to-scale-based two-stage network DEA model with the combination of parallel and series structures to explore the scale elasticities of the whole system, room production division, food and beverage production division, room service division and food and beverage service division based on the data of international tourist hotel industry in Taiwan. The results may provide valuable information on operational performance and scale for managers and decision makers.

Keywords: efficiency, scale elasticity, network data envelopment analysis, international tourist hotel

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Authors: Harshdeep Singh, Kuljeet Singh Anand

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Background: Cerebrovascular Accidents (CVA) cause abnormal or asymmetrical tendon reflexes contributing to motor impairments. Since the tendon reflexes are mediated by the spinal cord, their effects on cognitive performances are overlooked. This study aims to find the contributions of tendon reflexes on the performance of the Flanker task. Methods: A total population of 46 mixed subjects with movement disorders were recruited for the study. Deep tendon reflexes (DTR) of the biceps, triceps and brachioradialis were assessed for both upper extremities. Later, the Flanker task was performed on all the subjects, and the mean Reaction Time (RT) along with both the congruent and incongruent stimuli were evaluated. For the final analysis, the Kruskal Wallis test was performed to see the difference between the DTR and the performance of the Flanker Task. Results: The Kruskal Wallis test results showed a significant difference between the DTR scores, X²(2) = 11.328, p= 0.023 with the mean RT of the flanker task and X²(2) = 9.531, p= 0.049 with mean RT of the Incongruent Stimuli. Whereas the result found a non-significant difference in the mean RT of the Congruent Stimuli. Conclusion: Each DTR score is distributed differently with the mean RT of the flanker task and for the incongruent stimuli as well. Therefore, the tendon reflexes in PD may be contributing to the performance of the Flanker Task and may be an indicator of abnormal cognitive performance. Further research is needed to evaluate how the RTs are distributed with each DTR score.

Keywords: cerebrovascular accidents, deep tendon reflexes, flanker task, reaction time, congruent stimuli, incongruent stimuli

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Authors: Sujata Sethi, Pawan Kumar, Sameer Aggarwal

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Depression and anxiety are of significant concern in youth with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and these are correlated with glycemic control in multiple ways. The extent of depression and anxiety in children with T1DM remains poorly studied in India. The index study aimed to find the prevalence of depression and anxiety and their correlation with HbA1c (glycated hemoglobin) levels in children with T1DM. Material and methods: This study was a cross-sectional study carried out on a purposive sample of 45 children with T1DM. Depressive symptoms were assessed using Children’s Depression Rating Scale-Revised (CDRS-R) and anxiety symptoms were assessed using Spence Children’s Anxiety Scale (SCAS). Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels of all the participants were recorded. Results: 43 out of 45 children were analyzed as HbA1c status for two was not known. 48.8% were females. Mean age was 12.95+2.04. The average duration of diabetes was 3.63+1.82. Mean CDRS-R score was 41.6+12.25 and mean SCAS score was 33.07+12.29. Mean recording of HbA1c level was 7.90+1.51. 27 (62.8%) out of 43 participants had abnormal scores on CDRS-R and 24 (55.8%) out of 43 had abnormal scores on SCAS. The correlation coefficient between HbA1c levels and the CDRS-R score came out to be 0.57 and between HbA1c and SCAS, it was 0.53. Both correlations were significant with the p-value of < 0.02. Conclusion: Children with T1DM have high co-morbidity of depression and anxiety which is significantly correlated with the HbA1c levels. Thus, it becomes important to screen the patients for depression and anxiety for better outcomes.

Keywords: anxiety, depression, HbA1c, T1DM

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Authors: Megha Agarwal

Abstract:

The research paper is an effort to compare the earnings based and cash flow based methods of valuation of an enterprise. The theoretically equivalent methods based on either earnings such as Residual Earnings Model (REM), Abnormal Earnings Growth Model (AEGM), Residual Operating Income Method (ReOIM), Abnormal Operating Income Growth Model (AOIGM) and its extensions multipliers such as price/earnings ratio, price/book value ratio; or cash flow based models such as Dividend Valuation Method (DVM) and Free Cash Flow Method (FCFM) all provide different estimates of valuation of the Indian giant corporate Reliance India Limited (RIL). An ex-post analysis of published accounting and financial data for four financial years from 2008-09 to 2011-12 has been conducted. A comparison of these valuation estimates with the actual market capitalization of the company shows that the complex accounting based model AOIGM provides closest forecasts. These different estimates may be derived due to inconsistencies in discount rate, growth rates and the other forecasted variables. Although inputs for earnings based models may be available to the investor and analysts through published statements, precise estimation of free cash flows may be better undertaken by the internal management. The estimation of value from more stable parameters as residual operating income and RNOA could be considered superior to the valuations from more volatile return on equity.

Keywords: earnings, cash flows, valuation, Residual Earnings Model (REM)

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Authors: Najlae Bendou, Jean-Jacques Lilti, Khalid Elbadraoui

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In this paper, we examine stock market integration of emerging markets around the global financial turmoil of 2007-2008. Following Pukthuanthong and Roll (2009), we measure the integration of 46 emerging countries using the adjusted R-square from the regression of each country's daily index returns on global factors extracted from the covariance matrix computed using dollar-denominated daily index returns of 17 developed countries. Our sample surrounds the global financial crisis and ranges between 2000 and 2018. We analyze results using four cohorts of emerging countries: East Asia & Pacific and South Asia, Europe & Central Asia, Latin America & Caribbean, Middle East & Africa. We find that the level of integration of emerging countries increases at the commencement of the crisis and during the booming phase of the business cycles. It reaches a maximum point in the middle of the crisis and then tends to revert to its pre-crisis level. This pattern tends to be common among the four geographic zones investigated in this study. Finally, we investigate the determinants of stock market integration of emerging countries in our sample using panel regressions. Our results suggest that the degree of stock market integration of these countries should be put into perspective by some macro-economic factors, such as the size of the equity market, school enrollment rate, international liquidity level, stocks traded volume, tax revenue level, imports and exports volumes.

Keywords: correlations, determinants of integration, diversification, emerging markets, financial crisis, integration, markets co-movement, panel regressions, r-square, stock markets

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Authors: Kwaku Damoah

Abstract:

The agricultural sector is characterized by continuous transformation, driven by factors such as demographic shifts, evolving consumer preferences, climate change, and migration trends. This dynamic environment presents complex challenges for key stakeholders including farmers, governments, and investors, who must navigate these changes to achieve optimal investment returns. To effectively predict market trends and uncover promising investment opportunities, a systematic, data-driven approach is essential. This paper introduces the Structural Evolution Index (SEI), a machine learning-based methodology. SEI is specifically designed to analyse long-term trends and forecast the potential of emerging agricultural products for investment. Versatile in application, it evaluates various agricultural metrics such as production, yield, trade, land use, and consumption, providing a comprehensive view of the evolution within agricultural markets. By harnessing data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAOSTAT), this study demonstrates the SEI's capabilities through Comparative Exploratory Analysis and evaluation of international trade in agricultural products, focusing on Malaysia and Singapore. The SEI methodology reveals intricate patterns and transitions within the agricultural sector, enabling stakeholders to strategically identify and capitalize on emerging markets. This predictive framework is a powerful tool for decision-makers, offering crucial insights that help anticipate market shifts and align investments with anticipated returns.

Keywords: agricultural investment, algorithm, comparative exploratory analytics, machine learning, market trends, predictive analytics, structural evolution index

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Authors: Bastola Narayan, Rajeev Ranjan

Abstract:

The morphotropic phase boundary (MPB) in the magnetoelectric (1-x)BiFeO3-(x)PbTiO3 has remained a matter of controversy ever since its discovery in 1964. The nature of the phase stabilized (single phase tetragonal or coexistence of tetragonal and rhombohedral phases) is very sensitive to the slight changes in the synthesis conditions. It thus remained an enigma as to what is the essential physical factor which is controlled by the slight difference in the synthesis conditions that finally determines, whether the phase formed will be single phase or coexistence of phases. In this paper, we demonstrate that the nature of the phase stabilized in this system is uniquely dependent on the crystallite size. The system is shown to exhibit features of abnormal grain growth (AGG) during sintering with abrupt increase in the grain size from ~ 1 micron to ~ 10 microns. The 10 micron grains exhibit pure tetragonal phase while the 1 micron grains exhibit coexistence of rhombohedral and tetragonal ferroelectric phases. The Rietveld analysis of powder neutron diffraction shows a paramagnetic to antiferromagnetic order transition inducing with crystalline size reduction from 10 micron to 1 micron. Since tetragonal phase is known to have paramagnetic order and rhombohedral phase has antiferromagnetic order in room temperature, this further strengthens our argument of size induced structure transition.

Keywords: size driven MPB, size driven magnetic ordering, abnormal grain growth, phase formation in BF-PT system

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Authors: Indira Kothalanka

Abstract:

For individuals born with a cleft palate (CP), there is no separation between the nasal cavity and the oral cavity, due to which they cannot build up enough air pressure in the mouth for speech. Therefore, it is common for them to have speech problems. Common cleft type speech errors include abnormal articulation (compensatory or obligatory) and abnormal resonance (hyper, hypo and mixed nasality). These are generally resolved after palate repair. However, in some individuals, articulation problems do persist even after the palate repair. Such individuals develop variant articulations in an attempt to compensate for the inability to produce the target phonemes. A spectrographic analysis is used to investigate the compensatory articulatory behaviours of pressure consonants in the speech of 10 Telugu speaking individuals aged between 7-17 years with a history of cleft palate. Telugu is a Dravidian language which is spoken in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states in India. It is a language with the third largest number of native speakers in India and the most spoken Dravidian language. The speech of the informants is analysed using single word list, sentences, passage and conversation. Spectrographic analysis is carried out using PRAAT, speech analysis software. The place and manner of articulation of consonant sounds is studied through spectrograms with the help of various acoustic cues. The types of compensatory articulation identified are glottal stops, palatal stops, uvular, velar stops and nasal fricatives which are non-native in Telugu.

Keywords: cleft palate, compensatory articulation, spectrographic analysis, PRAAT

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Authors: Syed Ahsan, Saleh Alshomrani, Ishtiaq Rasool, Ali Hassan

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In this oral presentation, we will provide an overview of the technical and semantic architecture of a desert border security and critical infrastructure protection security system. Modern border security systems are designed to reduce the dependability and intrusion of human operators. To achieve this, different types of sensors are use along with video surveillance technologies. Application of these technologies in a harsh desert environment of Saudi Arabia poses unique challenges. Environmental and geographical factors including high temperatures, desert storms, temperature variations and remoteness adversely affect the reliability of surveillance systems. To successfully implement a reliable, effective system in a harsh desert environment, the following must be achieved: i) Selection of technology including sensors, video cameras, and communication infrastructure that suit desert environments. ii) Reduced power consumption and efficient usage of equipment to increase the battery life of the equipment. iii) A reliable and robust communication network with efficient usage of bandwidth. Also, to reduce the expert bottleneck, an ontology-based intelligent information systems needs to be developed. Domain knowledge unique and peculiar to Saudi Arabia needs to be formalized to develop an expert system that can detect abnormal activities and any intrusion.

Keywords: border security, sensors, abnormal activity detection, ontologies

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