Search results for: Victoria Siriaki Jorry

Authors: Victoria Siriaki Jorry, I. S. Mbalawata, Hayong Shin

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The main objective in a change detection problem is to develop algorithms for efficient detection of gradual and/or abrupt changes in the parameter distribution of a process or time series data. In this paper, we present a modified cumulative (MCUSUM) algorithm to detect the start and end of a time-varying linear drift in mean value of a time series data based on likelihood ratio test procedure. The design, implementation and performance of the proposed algorithm for a linear drift detection is evaluated and compared to the existing CUSUM algorithm using different performance measures. An approach to accurately approximate the threshold of the MCUSUM is also provided. Performance of the MCUSUM for gradual change-point detection is compared to that of standard cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart designed for abrupt shift detection using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of the expected time for detection, the MCUSUM procedure is found to have a better performance than a standard CUSUM chart for detection of the gradual change in mean. The algorithm is then applied and tested to a randomly generated time series data with a gradual linear trend in mean to demonstrate its usefulness.

Keywords: average run length, CUSUM control chart, gradual change detection, likelihood ratio test

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Authors: M. Nakkuntod, S. Srinarang, K.W. Hilu

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Water lily (Nymphaea L.) is the largest genus of Nymphaeaceae. This family is composed of six genera (Nuphar, Ondinea, Euryale, Victoria, Barclaya, Nymphaea). Its members are nearly worldwide in tropical and temperate regions. The classification of some species in Nymphaea is ambiguous due to high variation in leaf and flower parts such as leaf margin, stamen appendage. Therefore, the phylogenetic relationships based on 18S rDNA were constructed to delimit this genus. DNAs of 52 specimens belonging to water lily family were extracted using modified conventional method containing cetyltrimethyl ammonium bromide (CTAB). The results showed that the amplified fragment is about 1600 base pairs in size. After analysis, the aligned sequences presented 9.36% for variable characters comprising 2.66% of parsimonious informative sites and 6.70% of singleton sites. Moreover, there are 6 regions of 1-2 base(s) for insertion/deletion. The phylogenetic trees based on maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood with high bootstrap support indicated that genus Nymphaea was a paraphyletic group because of Ondinea, Victoria and Euryale disruption. Within genus Nymphaea, subgenus Nymphaea is a basal lineage group which cooperated with Euryale and Victoria. The other four subgenera, namely Lotos, Hydrocallis, Brachyceras and Anecphya were included the same large clade which Ondinea was placed within Anecphya clade due to geographical sharing.

Keywords: nrDNA, phylogeny, taxonomy, waterlily

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Authors: Siphiwe P. Mandina, Tinashe Shamuyashe

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Tourism has become a topical issue amongst academics and practitioners due to its potential to contribute significantly towards an economy’s GDP. The problem underpinning this research is the fact that the major attraction, Victoria Falls, is being marketed in neighboring countries like South Africa, Botswana and Zambia with tour operators providing just day trips to the Victoria Falls. This has deprived Zimbabwe of income from tourism with tourists making day trips and actually not spending nights in Zimbabwe. This therefore calls for cutting edge marketing strategies that are superior to or inimitable by competing nations such as South Africa and Zambia. This study proposes a shift towards an experience management paradigm in the tourism sector. A qualitative research was adopted for this study, and findings of this study were generalized across different tourism contexts, therefore making the survey based research design more appropriate. The target population for this study is tourists visiting Zimbabwe over the period 2016 and ZTA visitor database acquired from the Department of Immigration will form the sampling frame for the purposes of this study.

Keywords: tourist experiences, Zimbabwe, tourist arrivals, competitiveness

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Authors: Seema Paul, Jesper Oppelstrup, Roger Thunvik, Vladimir Cvetkovic

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Lake Victoria is the second largest fresh water body in the world, located in East Africa with a catchment area of 250,000 km², of which 68,800 km² is the actual lake surface. The hydrodynamic processes of the shallow (40–80 m deep) water system are unique due to its location at the equator, which makes Coriolis effects weak. The paper describes a St.Venant shallow water model of Lake Victoria developed in COMSOL Multiphysics software, a general purpose finite element tool for solving partial differential equations. Depth soundings taken in smaller parts of the lake were combined with recent more extensive data to resolve the discrepancies of the lake shore coordinates. The topography model must have continuous gradients, and Delaunay triangulation with Gaussian smoothing was used to produce the lake depth model. The model shows large-scale flow patterns, passive tracer concentration and water level variations in response to river and tracer inflow, rain and evaporation, and wind stress. Actual data of precipitation, evaporation, in- and outflows were applied in a fifty-year simulation model. It should be noted that the water balance is dominated by rain and evaporation and model simulations are validated by Matlab and COMSOL. The model conserves water volume, the celerity gradients are very small, and the volume flow is very slow and irrotational except at river mouths. Numerical experiments show that the single outflow can be modelled by a simple linear control law responding only to mean water level, except for a few instances. Experiments with tracer input in rivers show very slow dispersion of the tracer, a result of the slow mean velocities, in turn, caused by the near-balance of rain with evaporation. The numerical and hydrodynamical model can evaluate the effects of wind stress which is exerted by the wind on the lake surface that will impact on lake water level. Also, model can evaluate the effects of the expected climate change, as manifest in changes to rainfall over the catchment area of Lake Victoria in the future.

Keywords: bathymetry, lake flow and steady state analysis, water level validation and concentration, wind stress

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Authors: M. Johnson, R. Faggian, V. Sposito

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A participatory and engaged approach is key in connecting agricultural managers to sustainable agricultural systems to support and optimize production in Victoria’s food bowl. A sustainable intensification (SI) approach is well documented globally, but participation rates amongst Victorian farmers is fragmentary, and key outcomes and implementation strategies are poorly understood. Improvement in decision-support management tools and a greater understanding of the productivity gains available upon implementation of SI is necessary. This paper reviews the current understanding and uptake of SI practices amongst farmers in one of Victoria’s premier food producing regions, the Goulburn Broken; and it spatially analyses the potential for this region to adapt to climate change and optimize food production. A Geographical Information Systems (GIS) approach is taken to develop an interactive decision-support tool that can be accessible to on-ground agricultural managers. The tool encompasses multiple criteria analysis (MCA) that identifies factors during the construction phase of the tool, using expert witnesses and regional knowledge, framed within an Analytical Hierarchy Process. Given the complexities of the interrelations between each of the key outcomes, this participatory approach, in which local realities and factors inform the key outcomes and help to strategies for a particular region, results in a robust strategy for sustainably intensifying production in key food producing regions. The creation of an interactive, locally embedded, decision-support management and education tool can help to close the gap between farmer knowledge and production, increase on-farm adoption of sustainable farming strategies and techniques, and optimize farm productivity.

Keywords: agriculture, decision-support management tool, Geographic Information System, GIS, sustainable intensification

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Authors: Ratri Werdiningtyas, Yongping Wei, Andrew Western

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This paper contributes to on-going attempts at bringing together land, water and environmental policy in catchment management. A tension remains in defining the boundaries of policy integration. Most of Integrated Water Resource Management is valued as rhetoric policy. It is far from being achieved on the ground because the socio-ecological system has not been understood and developed into complete and coherent problem representation. To clarify the feature of integration, this article draws on institutional fit for public policy integration and uses these insights in an empirical setting to identify the mechanism that can facilitate effective public integration for catchment management. This research is based on the journey of Victoria’s government from 1890-2016. A total of 274 Victorian Acts related to land, water, environment management published in those periods has been investigated. Four conditions of integration have been identified in their co-evolution: (1) the integration policy based on reserves, (2) the integration policy based on authority interest, (3) policy based on integrated information and, (4) policy based coordinated resource, authority and information. Results suggest that policy coordination among their policy instrument is superior rather than policy integration in the case of catchment management.

Keywords: catchment management, co-evolution, policy integration, phase

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Authors: M. A. Wanzala, L. A. Ogallo, F. J. Opijah, J. N. Mutemi

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The usefulness and limitations in climate information are due to uncertainty inherent in the climate system. For any given region to have sustainable development it is important to apply climate information into its socio-economic strategic plans. The overall objective of the study was to assess the performance of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) over the Lake Victoria Basin. The datasets used included the observed point station data, gridded rainfall data from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and hindcast data from eight CMIP5. The methodology included trend analysis, spatial analysis, correlation analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) regression analysis, and categorical statistical skill score. Analysis of the trends in the observed rainfall records indicated an increase in rainfall variability both in space and time for all the seasons. The spatial patterns of the individual models output from the models of MPI, MIROC, EC-EARTH and CNRM were closest to the observed rainfall patterns.

Keywords: categorical statistics, coupled model inter-comparison project, principal component analysis, statistical downscaling

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Authors: Ranjith Ihalanayake, Lalith Seelanatha, John Breen

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In this study, we explored the current working capital management practices as applied in small businesses in Victoria, filling an existing theoretical and empirical gap in literature in general and in Australia in particular. Amidst the current global competitive and dynamic environment, the short term insolvency of small businesses is very critical for the long run survival. A firm’s short-term insolvency is dependent on the availability of sufficient working capital for feeding day to day operational activities. Therefore, given the reliance for short-term funding by small businesses, it has been recognized that the efficient management of working capital is crucial in respect of the prosperity and survival of such firms. Against this background, this research was an attempt to understand the current working capital management strategies and practices used by the small scale businesses. To this end, we conducted an internet survey among 220 small businesses operating in Victoria, Australia. The survey results suggest that the majority of respondents are owner-manager (73%) and male (68%). Respondents participated in this survey mostly have a degree (46%). About a half of respondents are more than 50 years old. Most of respondents (64%) have business management experience more than ten years. Similarly, majority of them (63%) had experience in the area of their current business. Types of business of the respondents are: Private limited company (41%), sole proprietorship (37%), and partnership (15%). In addition, majority of the firms are service companies (63%), followed by retailed companies (25%), and manufacturing (17%). Size of companies of this survey varies, 32% of them have annual sales $100,000 or under, while 22% of them have revenue more than $1,000,000 every year. In regards to the total assets, majority of respondents (43%) have total assets $100,000 or less while 20% of respondents have total assets more than $1,000,000. In regards to WCMPs, results indicate that almost 70% of respondents mentioned that they are responsible for managing their business working capital. The survey shows that majority of respondents (65.5%) use their business experience to identify the level of investment in working capital, compared to 22% of respondents who seek advice from professionals. The other 10% of respondents, however, follow industry practice to identify the level of working capital. The survey also shows that more than a half of respondents maintain good liquidity financial position for their business by having accounts payable less than accounts receivable. This study finds that majority of small business companies in western area of Victoria have a WCM policy but only about 8 % of them have a formal policy. Majority of the businesses (52.7%) have an informal policy while 39.5% have no policy. Of those who have a policy, 44% described their working capital management policies as a compromise policy while 35% described their policy as a conservative policy. Only 6% of respondents apply aggressive policy. Overall the results indicate that the small businesses pay less attention into the management of working capital of their business despite its significance in the successful operation of the business. This approach may be adopted during favourable economic times. However, during relatively turbulent economic conditions, such an approach could lead to greater financial difficulties i.e. short-term financial insolvency.

Keywords: small business, working capital management, Australia, sufficient, financial insolvency

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Authors: Muhammad Qasim, Laura Minet

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Victoria (BC), Canada, is a major cruise ship destination, attracting over 600,000 tourists annually. Residents of the James Bay neighborhood, home to the Ogden Point cruise terminal, have expressed concerns about the impacts of cruise ship activity on local traffic, air pollution, and safety compliance. This study evaluates the effects of cruise ship-induced traffic in James Bay, focusing on traffic flow intensification, density surges, changes in traffic mix, and speeding violations. To achieve these objectives, traffic data was collected in James Bay during two key periods: May, before the peak cruise season, and August, during full cruise operations. Three Miovision cameras captured the vehicular traffic mix at strategic entry points, while nine traffic counters monitored traffic distribution and speeding violations across the network. Traffic data indicated an average volume of 308 vehicles per hour during peak cruise times in May, compared to 116 vehicles per hour when no ships were in port. Preliminary analyses revealed a significant intensification of traffic flow during cruise ship "hoteling hours," with a volume increase of approximately 10% per cruise ship arrival. A notable 86% surge in taxi presence was observed on days with three cruise ships in port, indicating a substantial shift in traffic composition, particularly near the cruise terminal. The number of tourist buses escalated from zero in May to 32 in August, significantly altering traffic dynamics within the neighborhood. The period between 8 pm and 11 pm saw the most significant increases in traffic volume, especially when three ships were docked. Higher vehicle volumes were associated with a rise in speed violations, although this pattern was inconsistent across all areas. Speeding violations were more frequent on roads with lower traffic density, while roads with higher traffic density experienced fewer violations, due to reduced opportunities for speeding in congested conditions. PTV VISUM software was utilized for fuzzy distribution analysis and to visualize traffic distribution across the study area, including an assessment of the Level of Service on major roads during periods before and during the cruise ship season. This analysis identified the areas most affected by cruise ship-induced traffic, providing a detailed understanding of the impact on specific parts of the transportation network. These findings underscore the significant influence of cruise ship activity on traffic dynamics in Victoria, BC, particularly during peak periods when multiple ships are in port. The study highlights the need for targeted traffic management strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of increased traffic flow, changes in traffic mix, and speed violations, thereby enhancing road safety in the James Bay neighborhood. Further research will focus on detailed emissions estimation to fully understand the environmental impacts of cruise ship activity in Victoria.

Keywords: cruise ship tourism, air quality, traffic violations, transport dynamics, pollution

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Authors: Seyed Mohsen Samaei, Shirley Gato-Trinidad

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A pre-treatment stage prior to reverse osmosis (RO) is very important to ensure the long-term performance of the RO membranes in any wastewater treatment using RO. This study aims to evaluate the application of the Actiflo^® clarifier as part of a pre-treatment unit in mining operations. It involves performing analytical testing on RO feed water before and after installation of Actiflo^® unit. Water samples prior to RO plant stage were obtained on different dates from Costerfield mining operations in Victoria, Australia. Tests were conducted in an independent laboratory to determine the concentration of various compounds in RO feed water before and after installation of Actiflo^® unit during the entire evaluated period from December 2015 to June 2018. Water quality analysis shows that the quality of RO feed water has remarkably improved since installation of Actiflo^® clarifier. Suspended solids (SS) and turbidity removal efficiencies has been improved by 91 and 85 percent respectively in pre-treatment system since the installation of Actiflo^®. The Actiflo^® clarifier proved to be a valuable part of pre-treatment system prior to RO. It has the potential to conveniently condition the mining wastewater prior to RO unit, and reduce the risk of RO physical failure and irreversible fouling. Consequently, reliable and durable operation of RO unit with minimum requirement for RO membrane replacement is expected with Actiflo^® in use.

Keywords: ACTIFLO ® clarifier, mining wastewater, reverse osmosis, water treatment

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Authors: Scott Rawlings

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Victoria’s first State of the Bays report is an historic baseline study of the health of Port Phillip Bay and Western Port. The report includes 50 assessments of 36 indicators across a broad array of topics from the nitrogen cycle and water quality to key marine species and habitats. This paper discusses the processes for determining and assessing the indicators and comments on future priorities identified to maintain and improve the health of these water ways. Victoria’s population is now at six million, and growing at a rate of over 100,000 people per year - the highest increase in Australia – and the population of greater Melbourne is over four million. Port Phillip Bay and Western Port are vital marine assets at the centre of this growth and will require adaptive strategies if they are to remain in good condition and continue to deliver environmental, economic and social benefits. In 2014, it was in recognition of these pressures that the incoming Victorian Government committed to reporting on the state of the bays every five years. The inaugural State of the Bays report was issued by the independent Victorian Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability. The report brought together what is known about both bays, based on existing research. It was a baseline on which future reports will build and, over time, include more of Victoria’s marine environment. Port Phillip Bay and Western Port generally demonstrate healthy systems. Specific threats linked to population growth are a significant pressure. Impacts are more significant where human activity is more intense and where nutrients are transported to the bays around the mouths of creeks and drainage systems. The transport of high loads of nutrients and pollutants to the bays from peak rainfall events is likely to increase with climate change – as will sea level rise. Marine pests are also a threat. More than 100 introduced marine species have become established in Port Phillip Bay and can compete with native species, alter habitat, reduce important fish stocks and potentially disrupt nitrogen cycling processes. This study confirmed that our data collection regime is better within the Marine Protected Areas of Port Phillip Bay than in other parts. The State of the Bays report is a positive and practical example of what can be achieved through collaboration and cooperation between environmental reporters, Government agencies, academic institutions, data custodians, and NGOs. The State of the Bays 2016 provides an important foundation by identifying knowledge gaps and research priorities for future studies and reports on the bays. It builds a strong evidence base to effectively manage the bays and support an adaptive management framework. The Report proposes a set of indicators for future reporting that will support a step-change in our approach to monitoring and managing the bays – a shift from reporting only on what we do know, to reporting on what we need to know.

Keywords: coastal science, marine science, Port Phillip Bay, state of the environment, Western Port

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Authors: Namubiru Zula, Aganyira Kelle, Van der Linden Josje, Openjuru George Laadah

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Learning to know is a key principle to lifelong learning, with self-direction as the cornerstone. This study sought to initiate self-direction for lifelong learning through social constructivism among fishers; with the major goal of creating a community of fishers who continuously learn from each other for sustainable fishing. Government of Uganda has instituted several mechanisms like co-management with Beach Management Unit (BMU) System against illegal fishing. However, illegal fishing persists, there is reduced fish stocks with several outcry on how fishers are handled. Some studies have indicated that it’s the poor orientation of BMU leaders and fishers which are top down. This initial engagement of fishers was conducted through a meeting and use of stake holder’s analysis tool to discuss the relevance of the study; harnessing fishers’ knowledge for sustainable fisheries on Lake Victoria, its objectives, the key stake holders to enable them fish sustainably. It revealed initial attempt to learn from each other and learning to know among fishers, with some elements of self-direction. However, fishers attempt to learning and self-direction are affected by prior brutal enforcement experiences. This meeting led to fishers gain some sense of hope towards enforcement brutality. The key stakeholders highlighted include MAAIF, FAO, UNBS, NaFIRRI, LVFO, BMU, UFPEA, Fishers m employers, Fisheries Protection Unit, GIZ, and any Non-Government organization but declined the Association of Fisheries and Lake Users in Uganda.

Keywords: self direction, lifelong learning, social constructivism, sustainable fishing

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Authors: Ratri Werdiningtyas, Yongping Wei, Andrew Western

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The status quo of social-ecological systems is the results of not only natural processes but also the accumulated consequence of policies applied in the past. Often water management objectives are challenging and are only achieved to a limited degree on the ground. In choosing water management approaches, it is important to account for current conditions and important differences due to varied histories. Since the mid-nineteenth century, Victorian water management has evolved through a series of policy regime shifts. The main goal of this research to explore and identify the stages of the evolution of the water policy instruments as practiced in Victoria from 1890-2016. This comparative historical analysis has identified four stages in Victorian policy instrument development. In the first stage, the creation of policy instruments aimed to match the demand and supply of the resource (reserve condition). The second stage begins after natural system alone failed to balance supply and demand. The focus of the policy instrument shifted to an authority perspective in this stage. Later, the increasing number of actors interested in water led to another change in policy instrument. The third stage focused on the significant role of information from different relevant actors. The fourth and current stage is the most advanced, in that it involved the creation of a policy instrument for synergizing the previous three focal factors: reserve, authority, and information. When considering policy in other jurisdiction, these findings suggest that a key priority should be to reflect on the jurisdictions current position among these four evolutionary stages and try to make improve progressively rather than directly adopting approaches from elsewhere without understanding the current position.

Keywords: policy instrument, policy transformation, socio-ecolgical system, water management

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Authors: Mercy Chepkirui, Reuben Omondi, Paul Orina, Albert Getabu, Lewis Sitoki, Jonathan Munguti

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Globally, the decline in capture fisheries as a result of the growing population and increasing awareness of the nutritional benefits of white meat has led to the development of aquaculture. This is anticipated to meet the increasing call for more food for the human population, which is likely to increase further by 2050. Statistics showed that more than 50% of the global future fish diet will come from aquaculture. Aquaculture began commercializing some decades ago; this is accredited to technological advancement from traditional to modern cultural systems, including cage farming. Cage farming technology has been rapidly growing since its inception in Lake Victoria, Kenya. Currently, over 6,000 cages have been set up in Kenyan waters, and this offers an excellent opportunity for recognition of Kenya’s government tactic to eliminate food insecurity and malnutrition, create employment and promote a Blue Economy. However, being an open farming enterprise is likely to emit large bulk of waste hence altering the ecosystem integrity of the lake. This is through increased chlorophyll-a pigments, alteration of the plankton community, macroinvertebrates, fish genetic pollution, transmission of fish diseases and pathogens. Cage farming further increases the nutrient loads leading to the production of harmful algal blooms, thus negatively affecting aquatic and human life. Despite the ecological transformation, cage farming provides a platform for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals of 2030, especially the achievement of food security and nutrition. Therefore, there is a need for Integrated Multitrophic Aquaculture as part of Blue Transformation for ecosystem monitoring.

Keywords: aquaculture, ecosystem, blue economy, food security

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Authors: Nilda San Miguel, Elymar Pascual

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The main focus of this study is exploring the effective approaches in teaching Mathematics that is being applied in public schools, s.y. 2018-2019. This research was written as connected output to the district-wide School Learning Action Cell (DISLAC) on Math teaching approaches which was recently conducted in Victoria, Laguna. Fifty-four math teachers coming from 17 schools in Victoria became the respondents of this study. Qualitative method of doing research was applied. Teachers’ responses to the following concerns were gathered, analyzed and interpreted: (1) evaluation of the recently conducted DISLAC, (2) status of the use of different approaches, (3) perception on the effective use of approaches, (4) preference of approach to explore in classroom sessions, (5) factors affecting the choice of approach, (6) difficulties encountered, (7) and perceived benefit to learners. Results showed that the conduct of DISLAC was very highly satisfactory (mean 4.41). Teachers looked at collaborative approach as very highly effective (mean 4.74). Fifty-two percent of the teachers is using collaborative approach, 17% constructivist, 11% integrative, 11% inquiry-based, and 9% reflective. Reflective approach was chosen to be explored by most of the respondents (29%) in future sessions. The difficulties encountered by teachers in using the different approaches are: (1) learners’ difficulty in following instructions, (2) lack of focus, (3) lack of willingness and cooperation, (4) teachers’ lack of mastery in using different approaches, and (5) lack of time of doing visual aids because of time mismanagement. Teachers deemed the use of various teaching approaches can help the learners to have (1) mastery of competency, (2) increased communication, (3) improved confidence, (4) facility in comprehension, and (5) better academic output. The result obtained from this study can be used as an input for SLACs. Recommendations at the end of the study were given to school/district heads and future researchers.

Keywords: approaches, collaborative, constructivism, inquiry-based, integrative, reflective

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Triphonia Ngailo

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Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM 2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750 mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny, and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm). The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region (250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended over eastern region.

Keywords: convective parameterization schemes, March-May 2013 rainfall season, spatial variation of parameterization schemes over Uganda, WRF model

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Authors: Breanna Wright, Peter Bragge

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Diagnostic error rates in healthcare are approximately 10% of cases. Diagnostic errors can cause patient harm due to inappropriate, inadequate or delayed treatment, and such errors contribute heavily to medical liability claims globally. Therefore, addressing diagnostic error is a high priority. In most cases, diagnostic errors are the result of faulty information synthesis rather than lack of knowledge. Specifically, the majority of diagnostic errors involve cognitive factors, and in particular, cognitive biases. Emergency Departments are an environment with heightened risk of diagnostic error due to time and resource pressures, a frequently chaotic environment, and patients arriving undifferentiated and with minimal context. This project aimed to develop a behavioural, evidence-informed intervention to reduce diagnostic error in Emergency Departments through co-design with emergency physicians, insurers, researchers, hospital managers, citizens and consumer representatives. The Forum Process was utilised to address this aim. This involves convening a small (4 – 6 member) expert panel to guide a focused literature and practice review; convening of a 10 – 12 person citizens panel to gather perspectives of laypeople, including those affected by misdiagnoses; and a 18 – 22 person structured stakeholder dialogue bringing together representatives of the aforementioned stakeholder groups. The process not only provides in-depth analysis of the problem and associated behaviours, but brings together expertise and insight to facilitate identification of a behaviour change intervention. Informed by the literature and practice review, the Citizens Panel focused on eliciting the values and concerns of those affected or potentially affected by diagnostic error. Citizens were comfortable with diagnostic uncertainty if doctors were honest with them. They also emphasised the importance of open communication between doctors and patients and their families. Citizens expect more consistent standards across the state and better access for both patients and their doctors to patient health information to avoid time-consuming re-taking of long patient histories and medication regimes when re-presenting at Emergency Departments and to reduce the risk of unintentional omissions. The structured Stakeholder Dialogue focused on identifying a feasible behavioural intervention to review diagnoses in Emergency Departments. This needed to consider the role of cognitive bias in medical decision-making; contextual factors (in Victoria, there is a legislated 4-hour maximum time between ED triage and discharge / hospital admission); resource availability; and the need to ensure the intervention could work in large metropolitan as well as small rural and regional ED settings across Victoria. The identified behavioural intervention will be piloted in approximately ten hospital EDs across Victoria, Australia. This presentation will detail the findings of all review and consultation activities, describe the behavioural intervention developed and present results of the pilot trial.

Keywords: behavioural intervention, cognitive bias, decision-making, diagnostic error

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Authors: Arun Kumar R. K. Gothra, Hasan Alhakamy

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With increasing expectations and demands for warehousing and distribution, Warehouse Solution Incorporated in Victoria has been looking at ways to improve on its business processes to maintain the competitive edge. To maintain the provision of high quality service standards at competitive and affordable prices, improvements in the logistics management are necessary. One such avenue is to make efficient use of space available in the warehouse. This paper is based on a study of the collaboration of Warehouse Solution Inc with Dandenong Distribution Centre (DDC) to solve congestion problem and enhance efficiency of the whole warehouse activities.

Keywords: space optimization, optimal utilization, warehouse, DDC

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Authors: Hamid Reza Tabatabaiefar, Bita Mansoury, Mohammad Javad Khadivi Zand

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The current energy and climate change impacts of the residential building sector in Australia are significant. Thus, the Australian Government has introduced more stringent regulations to improve building energy efficiency. In 2006, the Australian residential building sector consumed about 11% (around 440 Petajoule) of the total primary energy, resulting in total greenhouse gas emissions of 9.65 million tonnes CO2-eq. The gas and electricity consumption of residential dwellings contributed to 30% and 52% respectively, of the total primary energy utilised by this sector. Around 40 percent of total energy consumption of Australian buildings goes to heating and cooling due to the low thermal performance of the buildings. Thermal performance of buildings determines the amount of energy used for heating and cooling of the buildings which profoundly influences energy efficiency. Employing sustainable design principles and effective use of construction materials can play a crucial role in improving thermal performance of new and existing buildings. Even though awareness has been raised, the design phase of refurbishment projects is often problematic. One of the issues concerning the refurbishment of residential buildings is mostly the consumer market, where most work consists of moderate refurbishment jobs, often without assistance of an architect and partly without a building permit. There is an individual and often fragmental approach that results in lack of efficiency. Most importantly, the decisions taken in the early stages of the design determine the final result; however, the assessment of the environmental performance only happens at the end of the design process, as a reflection of the design outcome. Finally, studies have identified the lack of knowledge, experience and best-practice examples as barriers in refurbishment projects. In the context of sustainable development and the need to reduce energy demand, refurbishing the ageing residential building constitutes a necessary action. Not only it does provide huge potential for energy savings, but it is also economically and socially relevant. Although the advantages have been identified, the guidelines come in the form of general suggestions that fail to address the diversity of each project. As a result, it has been recognised that there is a strong need to develop guidelines for optimised retrofitting of existing residential buildings in order to improve their energy performance. The current study investigates the effectiveness of different energy retrofitting techniques and examines the impact of employing those methods on energy consumption of residential brick veneer buildings in Victoria (Australia). Proposing different remedial solutions for improving the energy performance of residential brick veneer buildings, in the simulation stage, annual energy usage analyses have been carried out to determine heating and cooling energy consumptions of the buildings for different proposed retrofitting techniques. Then, the results of employing different retrofitting methods have been examined and compared in order to identify the most efficient and cost-effective remedial solution for improving the energy performance of those buildings with respect to the climate condition in Victoria and construction materials of the studied benchmark building.

Keywords: brick veneer residential buildings, building energy efficiency, climate change impacts, cost effective remedial solution, energy performance, sustainable design principles

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Authors: Mekonen Hailu, Liu Liping

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Cage aquaculture is highly preferred due to higher production per unit volume of water, lower costs of investment, and simpler routine farm management procedures compared to pond systems. In the 1980s, cage culture was first used on a trial basis in sub-Saharan Africa. Over the past 20 years, a small number of prosperous freshwater cage culture operations have started to emerge in Egypt, Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Ghana, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Brackish and marine cage culture also offers a lot of potential, although this subsector hasn't seen any significant commercial growth to date. In 2019, 263 cage aquaculture installations on the African inland waters on 18 water bodies within eight countries with an estimated 20,114 cages were reported. The lakes Victoria, Kariba, Volta, and River Volta, which together account for 82.9% of all cage aquaculture installations regarded as sub-Saharan Africa's principal cage aquaculture regions (Fig 1). Except few small-scale trials with North African catfish (Clarias gariepinus), almost all farms in Sub-Saharan Africa and Egypt grow Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). More than 247,398 tonnes of fish are produced yearly from ten African countries through cage aquaculture. The expansion of cage culture in Africa provides job opportunities for both skilled and unskilled workers, nutritious food and foreign currency. The escaping non-native strains of tilapia in Lake Volta and the occurrence of a risky Tilapia lake virus (syncytial hepatitis), which has the potential to wipe out entire populations in both wild and farmed Nile tilapia on Lake Victoria, are threats coming with the expansion of cage aquaculture in Africa. In addition, the installations of 138 cage aquacultures were found in contrary to best cage culture practices. To sustain cage aquaculture development and maintain harmony with other water uses, developers must strictly abide by best practices. Hence, the exclusion of protected areas and small lakes (average depth 5 m or less) should be done, as well an Environmental Impact Assessment should be conducted before establishing the cage farms.

Keywords: Africa, cage aquaculture, production, threats

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Authors: Aspen W. Glaspell, Victoria J. Rouse, Brian K. Friedrich, Kyosung Choo

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Heat transfer of two-phase impinging jet on a flat plate surface are experimentally investigated. The effects of the nozzle-to-surface distance and volumetric quality on the Nusselt number are considered. The results show that the normalized stagnation Nusselt number drastically increase with decreasing the nozzle-to-surface distance due to the jet deflection effect. Based on the experimental results, new correlations for the stagnation Nusselt number are developed as a function of the nozzle-to-surface distance.

Keywords: jet impingement, water jet, air assisted, circular jet

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Authors: Seema Paul, John Mango Magero, Prosun Bhattacharya, Zahra Kalantari, Steve W. Lyon

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The purpose of this review paper is to develop an understanding of lake hydrodynamics and the potential climate impact on the Lake Victoria (LV) catchment scale. This paper briefly discusses the main problems of lake hydrodynamics and its’ solutions that are related to quality assessment and climate effect. An empirical methodology in modeling and mapping have considered for understanding lake hydrodynamic and visualizing the long-term observational daily, monthly, and yearly mean dataset results by using geographical information system (GIS) and Comsol techniques. Data were obtained for the whole lake and five different meteorological stations, and several geoprocessing tools with spatial analysis are considered to produce results. The linear regression analyses were developed to build climate scenarios and a linear trend on lake rainfall data for a long period. A potential evapotranspiration rate has been described by the MODIS and the Thornthwaite method. The rainfall effect on lake water level observed by Partial Differential Equations (PDE), and water quality has manifested by a few nutrients parameters. The study revealed monthly and yearly rainfall varies with monthly and yearly maximum and minimum temperatures, and the rainfall is high during cool years and the temperature is high associated with below and average rainfall patterns. Rising temperatures are likely to accelerate evapotranspiration rates and more evapotranspiration is likely to lead to more rainfall, drought is more correlated with temperature and cloud is more correlated with rainfall. There is a trend in lake rainfall and long-time rainfall on the lake water surface has affected the lake level. The onshore and offshore have been concentrated by initial literature nutrients data. The study recommended that further studies should consider fully lake bathymetry development with flow analysis and its’ water balance, hydro-meteorological processes, solute transport, wind hydrodynamics, pollution and eutrophication these are crucial for lake water quality, climate impact assessment, and water sustainability.

Keywords: climograph, climate scenarios, evapotranspiration, linear trend flow, rainfall event on LV, concentration

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Authors: Marcel Ciesla, Victoria Oberascher, Sven Eder, Stefan Kirchweger, Wolfgang E. Baaske, Gerald Ostermayer

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The omnipresent trend towards sustainable mobility is a major challenge, especially for commuters in rural areas. The use of micro public transport systems is expected to significantly reduce pollutant emissions, as several commuters travel the first mile together with a single pick-up bus instead of their own car. In this paper, different aspects of such a micro public transport system are analyzed. The main findings of the investigations should be how the travel times of commuters change and how many CO₂ emissions can be saved if some of the commuters use public transport instead of their own vehicle.

Keywords: micro public transport, green transportation, sustainable mobility, low-emission commuting

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Authors: Oluwaseun Ijiwade, Chris Davison, Kelvin Gregory

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In Australia, like other parts of the world, the debate on how to enhance teachers using assessment data to inform teaching and learning of English as an Additional Language (EAL, Australia) or English as a Foreign Language (EFL, United States) have occupied the centre of academic scholarship. Traditionally, this approach was conceptualised as ‘Formative Assessment’ and, in recent times, ‘Assessment for Learning (AfL)’. The central problem is that teacher-made tests are limited in providing data that can inform teaching and learning due to variability of classroom assessments, which are hindered by teachers’ characteristics and assessment literacy. To address this concern, scholars in language education and testing have proposed a uniformed large-scale computer-based assessment program to meet the needs of teachers and promote AfL in language education. In Australia, for instance, the Victoria state government commissioned a large-scale project called 'Tools to Enhance Assessment Literacy (TEAL) for Teachers of English as an additional language'. As part of the TEAL project, a tool called ‘Reading and Vocabulary assessment for English as an Additional Language (RVEAL)’, as a diagnostic language assessment (DLA), was developed by language experts at the University of New South Wales for teachers in Victorian schools to guide EAL pedagogy in the classroom. Therefore, this study aims to provide qualitative evidence for understanding beliefs about the diagnostic language assessment (DLA) among EAL teachers in primary and secondary schools in Victoria, Australia. To realize this goal, this study raises the following questions: (a) How do teachers use large-scale assessment data for diagnostic purposes? (b) What skills do language teachers think are necessary for using assessment data for instruction in the classroom? and (c) What factors, if any, contribute to teachers’ beliefs about diagnostic assessment in a large-scale assessment? Semi-structured interview method was used to collect data from at least 15 professional teachers who were selected through a purposeful sampling. The findings from the resulting data analysis (thematic analysis) provide an understanding of teachers’ beliefs about DLA in a classroom context and identify how these beliefs are crystallised in language teachers. The discussion shows how the findings can be used to inform professional development processes for language teachers as well as informing important factor of teacher cognition in the pedagogic processes of language assessment. This, hopefully, will help test developers and testing organisations to align the outcome of this study with their test development processes to design assessment that can enhance AfL in language education.

Keywords: beliefs, diagnostic language assessment, English as an additional language, teacher cognition

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Authors: Brent McKenzie, Victoria Taylor

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The use of QR (Quick Response Codes) codes for customer scanning with mobile phones is a rapidly growing trend. The QR code can provide the consumer with product information, user guides, product use, competitive pricing, etc. One sector for QR use has been in retail, through the use of Electronic Shelf Labeling (henceforth, ESL). In Europe, the use of ESL for pricing has been in practice for a number of years but continues to lag in acceptance in North America. Stated concerns include costs as a key constraint, but there is also evidence that consumer acceptance represents a limitation as well. The purpose of this study is to present the findings of a consumer based study to gage the impact on their use in the retail food sector.

Keywords: electronic price labels, consumer behaviour, grocery shopping, mixed methods research

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Authors: Segun Thompson Bolarinwa, Munacinga Simatele, Adedamola Victoria Adegbuyi

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Using World Bank’s nascent measure of sustainability, this paper examines the relationship between informality and sustainability in selected 7 African and 7 European developing economies. Specifically, the work examines the roles of informality on sustainability, interactive effect of globalisation in the nexus and the threshold of informality on sustainability suing spatial econometric and dynamic panel threshold panel models. Overall, the results indicate mixed effects of positive and negative pf informality on sustainability in Africa and Europe respectively. Recommendations are presented.

Keywords: spatial and dynamic, informality, Africa, Europe, globalisation, sustainability

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Authors: Ramachandran Manivannan, B. Sakthi Swaroop, Selvam Noyel Victoria

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Microbial corrosion of brass gauze by the aerobic film forming bacteria Arthrobacter sulfurous in neutral media was investigated using gravimetric studies. Maximum weight loss of 166.98 mg was observed for a period of 28 days of exposure to the bacterial medium as against the weight loss of 13.69 mg for control. The optical density studies for the bacterial culture was found to show attainment of stationary phase in 48 h. Scanning electron microscopy analysis of the samples shows the presence of pitting corrosion. The energy dispersive X-ray analysis of the samples showed increased oxygen and phosphorus content in the sample due to bacterial activity.

Keywords: Arthrobacter sulfureus, biocorrosion, brass, neutral medium

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Authors: Laura Victoria Vigoya Morales, David Rolando Suarez Mora

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The problem of detecting enterococcus faecalis is receiving considerable attention with the new cases of beachgoers infected with the bacteria, which can be found in fecal matter. The process detection of this kind of bacteria would be taking a long time, which waste time and money as a result of closing recreation place, like beach or pools. Hence, new methods for automating the process of detecting and recognition of this bacteria has become in a challenge. This article describes a novel approach to detect the enterococcus faecalis bacteria in water by using an octave algorithm, which embody a network neural. This document shows result of performance, quality and integrity of the algorithm.

Keywords: Enterococcus faecalis, image treatment, octave and network neuronal

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Authors: Victoria Adikpe

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The ills of the Nigerian public sector have been identified at various fora to include lack of financial accountability and poor reporting of government performance. With the enthronement of democracy, citizens’ expectations from the government are drifting from the mere provision of public services to efficiency and accountability. One of the major challenges to achieving accountability in Nigeria is the capability of the cash basis of accounting to meet the reporting requirements of policies and programmes of the government. This paper discussed the growing trend in the debate about the adoption of private sector financial management processes in the public sector as part of the public sector reform programmes. The paper does not claim the ultimate superiority of accrual over cash accounting but shows how it will help to further strengthen the quality of government accounting and reporting.

Keywords: cash accounting, accrual accounting, accountability, reporting

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Authors: Md. Aftabuzzaman, Md. Kamruzzaman

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Road-related expenditure and building construction activity are two significant drivers of the Victorian economy. This paper investigates the relationship between building construction activity and road-related expenditure. Data for construction activities were collected from Victorian Building Authority, and road-related expenditure data were explored by the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics. The trend between these two sectors was compared. The analysis found a strong relationship between road-related expenditure and the volume of construction activity, i.e., the more construction activities, the greater the requirement of road-related expenditure, or vice-versa. The road-related expenditure has a two-year lag period, suggesting that the road sector requires two years to respond to the growth in the building sector.

Keywords: building construction activity, infrastructure, road expenditure, Victorian Building Authority

Procedia PDF Downloads 128