Search results for: Monte Carlo ray trace technique

Authors: Naime Boudemagh, Zoheir Hammoudi

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The parameters estimation of the K-distribution is an essential part in radar detection. In fact, presence of interfering targets in reference cells causes a decrease in detection performances. In such situation, the estimate of the shape and the scale parameters are far from the actual values. In the order to avoid interfering targets, we propose an Automatic Censoring (AC) algorithm of radar interfering targets in K-distribution. The censoring technique used in this work offers a good discrimination between homogeneous and non-homogeneous environments. The homogeneous population is then used to estimate the unknown parameters by the classical Method of Moment (MOM). The AC algorithm does not need any prior information about the clutter parameters nor does it require both the number and the position of interfering targets. The accuracy of the estimation parameters obtained by this algorithm are validated and compared to various actual values of the shape parameter, using Monte Carlo simulations, this latter show that the probability of censing in multiple target situations are in good agreement.

Keywords: parameters estimation, method of moments, automatic censoring, K distribution

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Authors: G. Medkour Ishak-Boushaki, A. Taibi, M. Allab

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Quantitative environmental radioactivity measurements are needed to determine the level of exposure of a population to ionizing radiations and for the assessment of the associated risks. Gamma spectrometry remains a very powerful tool for the analysis of radionuclides present in an environmental sample but the basic problem in such measurements is the low rate of detected events. Using large environmental samples could help to get around this difficulty but, unfortunately, new issues are raised by gamma rays attenuation and self-absorption. Recently, a new method has been suggested, to detect and identify without quantification, in a short time, a gamma ray of a low count source. This method does not require, as usually adopted in gamma spectrometry measurements, a pulse height spectrum acquisition. It is based on a chronological record of each detected photon by simultaneous measurements of its energy ε and its arrival time τ on the detector, the pair parameters [ε,τ] defining an event mode sequence (EMS). The EMS serials are analyzed sequentially by a Bayesian approach to detect the presence of a given radioactive source. The main object of the present work is to test the applicability of this sequential approach in radioactive environmental materials detection. Moreover, for an appropriate health oversight of the public and of the concerned workers, the analysis has been extended to get a reliable quantification of the radionuclides present in environmental samples. For illustration, we consider as an example, the problem of detection and quantification of 238U. Monte Carlo simulated experience is carried out consisting in the detection, by a Ge(Hp) semiconductor junction, of gamma rays of 63 keV emitted by 234Th (progeny of 238U). The generated EMS serials are analyzed by a Bayesian inference. The application of the sequential Bayesian approach, in environmental radioactivity analysis, offers the possibility of reducing the measurements time without requiring large environmental samples and consequently avoids the attached inconvenient. The work is still in progress.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, event mode sequence, gamma spectrometry, Monte Carlo method

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Authors: M. R. Akbari , H. Yousefnia, E. Mirrezaei

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Range uncertainties of protons are currently a topic of interest in proton therapy. Two of the parameters that are often used to specify proton range are water equivalent thickness (WET) and water equivalent ratio (WER). Since WER values for a specific material is nearly constant at different proton energies, it is a more useful parameter to compare. In this study, WER values were calculated for different proton energies in polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA), polystyrene (PS) and aluminum (Al) using FLUKA and TRIM codes. The results were compared with analytical, experimental and simulated SEICS code data obtained from the literature. In FLUKA simulation, a cylindrical phantom, 1000 mm in height and 300 mm in diameter, filled with the studied materials was simulated. A typical mono-energetic proton pencil beam in a wide range of incident energies usually applied in proton therapy (50 MeV to 225 MeV) impinges normally on the phantom. In order to obtain the WER values for the considered materials, cylindrical detectors, 1 mm in height and 20 mm in diameter, were also simulated along the beam trajectory in the phantom. In TRIM calculations, type of projectile, energy and angle of incidence, type of target material and thickness should be defined. The mode of 'detailed calculation with full damage cascades' was selected for proton transport in the target material. The biggest difference in WER values between the codes was 3.19%, 1.9% and 0.67% for Al, PMMA and PS, respectively. In Al and PMMA, the biggest difference between each code and experimental data was 1.08%, 1.26%, 2.55%, 0.94%, 0.77% and 0.95% for SEICS, FLUKA and SRIM, respectively. FLUKA and SEICS had the greatest agreement (≤0.77% difference in PMMA and ≤1.08% difference in Al, respectively) with the available experimental data in this study. It is concluded that, FLUKA and TRIM codes have capability for Bragg curves simulation and WER values calculation in the studied materials. They can also predict Bragg peak location and range of proton beams with acceptable accuracy.

Keywords: water equivalent ratio, dosimetric materials, proton therapy, Monte Carlo simulations

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Authors: S. Krustev, V. Angelova, K. Ivanov, P. Zaprjanova

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Approximately a dozen trace elements are vital for the development of all plants and some other elements are significant for some species. Heavy metals do not belong to this group of elements that are essential to plants, but some of them such as copper and zinc, have a dual effect on their growth. Concentration levels of these elements in the different regions of the world vary considerably. Their high concentrations in some parts of Central and Eastern Europe cause concern for human health and degrade the quality of agricultural produce from these areas. This study aims to compare the prevalence and levels of the major trace elements in some rural areas of Central and Eastern Europe. Soil samples from different regions of the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece far from large industrial centers have been studied. The main methods for their determination are the atomic spectral techniques – atomic absorption and plasma atomic emission. As a result of this study, data on microelements levels in soils of 17 points from the main grain-producing regions of Central and Eastern Europe are presented and systematized. The content of trace elements was in the range of 5.0-84.1 mg.kg⁻¹ for Cu, 0.3-1.4 mg.kg⁻¹ for Cd, 26.1-225.5 mg.kg⁻¹ for Zn, 235.5-788.6 mg.kg⁻¹ for Mn and 4.1-25.8 mg.kg⁻¹ for Pb.

Keywords: trace elements, heavy metals, agricultural soils, Central and Eastern Europe

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Authors: Yanick Blaise Ketchaya, Taofa Zhou

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The type of primary source of gold deposit can be explored by using the study of trace element analysis of placer gold which is a valuable exploration tool. Au-bearing deposits are investigated through the placer gold, which is an important indicator mineral. The hydrothermal fluid interacting with diverse geological settings exerts an important function on the chemical composition of gold. Consequently, alluvial gold particles from the placer deposits within the Gamba district in northern Cameroon were examined by an electron probe microanalyzer (EPMA) to show discriminant chemical signatures. The gold grains from a different locality show the same trace element composition, which appears to be in a solid solution in Au. These trace element compositions, contained in gold grains, indicate a homogeneous source. The placer gold particles have significant chemical characteristics (low Ag content), consistent with a mesothermal source. The gold particle signatures in the Gamba district, with high Te and Bi contents, reflect the chemical characteristics of the felsic host rock superimposed on the chemical signature of the hydrothermal fluid.

Keywords: hypogene source, Northern Cameroon, placer gold, trace element

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Authors: Ric Joseph R. Murillo, Edna N. Gueco, Dennis I. Merino

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Let F be C or R, where C and R are the set of complex numbers and real numbers, respectively, and n be a natural number. An n-by-n matrix A over the field F is called an α-involutory matrix or an α-involution if there exists an α in the field such that the square of the matrix is equal to αI, where I is the n-by-n identity matrix. If α is a complex number or a nonnegative real number, then an n-by-n matrix A over the field F can be written as a sum of n-by-n α-involutory matrices over the field F if and only if the trace of that matrix is an integral multiple of the square root of α. Meanwhile, if α is a negative real number, then a 2n-by-2n matrix A over R can be written as a sum of 2n-by-2n α-involutory matrices over R if and only the trace of the matrix is zero. Some other properties of α-involutory matrices are also determined

Keywords: α-involutory Matrices, sum of α-involutory Matrices, Trace, Matrix Theory

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Authors: Manish Chand, Subhrojit Bagchi, R. Kumar

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A new dry tube (DT) has been installed in the tank of KAMINI research reactor, Kalpakkam India. This tube will be used for neutron activation analysis of small to large samples and testing of neutron detectors. DT tube is 375 cm height and 7.5 cm in diameter, located 35 cm away from the core centre. The experimental thermal flux at various axial positions inside the tube has been measured by irradiating the flux monitor (¹⁹⁷Au) at 20kW reactor power. The measured activity of ¹⁹⁸Au and the thermal cross section of ¹⁹⁷Au (n,γ) ¹⁹⁸Au reaction were used for experimental thermal flux measurement. The flux inside the tube varies from 10⁹ to 10¹⁰ and maximum flux was (1.02 ± 0.023) x10¹⁰ n cm⁻²s⁻¹ at 36 cm from the bottom of the tube. The Au and Zr foils without and with cadmium cover of 1-mm thickness were irradiated at the maximum flux position in the DT to find out the irradiation specific input parameters like sub-cadmium to epithermal neutron flux ratio (f) and the epithermal neutron flux shape factor (α). The f value was 143 ± 5, indicates about 99.3% thermal neutron component and α value was -0.2886 ± 0.0125, indicates hard epithermal neutron spectrum due to insufficient moderation. The measured flux profile has been validated using theoretical model of KAMINI reactor through Monte Carlo N-Particle Code (MCNP). In MCNP, the complex geometry of the entire reactor is modelled in 3D, ensuring minimum approximations for all the components. Continuous energy cross-section data from ENDF-B/VII.1 as well as S (α, β) thermal neutron scattering functions are considered. The neutron flux has been estimated at the corresponding axial locations of the DT using mesh tally. The thermal flux obtained from the experiment shows good agreement with the theoretically predicted values by MCNP, it was within ± 10%. It can be concluded that this MCNP model can be utilized for calculating other important parameters like neutron spectra, dose rate, etc. and multi elemental analysis can be carried out by irradiating the sample at maximum flux position using measured f and α parameters by k₀-NAA standardization.

Keywords: neutron flux, neutron activation analysis, neutron flux shape factor, MCNP, Monte Carlo N-Particle Code

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Authors: O.M. Agbogidi, I.M. Onochie

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An investigation was carried out on trace metal concentration of soils contaminated with carbide in Abraka, Delta State, Nigeria in 2014 with a view to providing baseline formation on their status relative to the control plants and to the tolerable limits recommended by World standard bodies including WHO and FAO. The metals were analyzed using the Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer which showed an elevated level when compared with the control plots. High level of metals including Fe, Pb, Zn, Cu, Cd, Ni, Cr and arsenic were recorded and these values were significantly different (P<0.05) from values obtained from the control plots. These results are indicative of the fact that carbide polluted soil had higher level of trace metals and because these metals are non-biodegradable elements in the ecosystem, a rise to their lethal levels in food chains is envisaged due to the interdependency of plants and animals stemming from soil-water organisms interrelationship.

Keywords: bio-concentration, carbide contaminated soils, heavy metals, trace metals

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Authors: Adebayo Adewumi

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Emu Dromaius novaehollandiae the second largest bird in the world started its domestication in the United States in the early 1980's and the present trend in the production of emu in the U.S can be compared with cattle industry. As the population of many wildlife species in Nigeria declined due to unsustainable harvest of bush meat, animals like snails, antelopes,Ostrich, Emu and rodents have been domesticated. Although this improved livestock production in Nigeria, the basic physiological parameters of these mini- livestock are not known. Especially the intra-erythrocyte trace elements of domesticated emu, For this study, emu blood was obtained from Ajanla farms, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria. There, 16 emus at age of 20 months were bled through jugular vein in a semi-intensive system for a period of 12 months. The intra-erythrocyte trace elements Cu, Zn, and Mg in healthy Emu were measured. The influences of sex and age on these parameters were investigated. No age or sex differences were observed in intra-erythrocytic Cu levels. Intra-erythrocytic Zn and Mg levels were significantly higher (P<0.05) in young Emu than in adults while males used significantly (P<0.05) higher intra erythrocytic Mg than females. intra-erythrocyte trace elements Cu, Zn and Mg is a good pointer to haemoglobin concentration which determines the state of wellness of an animal. The information from this work has provided a baseline data for further understanding of erythrocyte biochemistry of Emu in Nigeria.

Keywords: intra erythrocyte, trace elements, Emu, biochemistry

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Authors: Omar Alzeley, Sergey Utev

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Minimizing a constrained multivariate function is the fundamental of Machine learning, and these algorithms are at the core of data mining and data visualization techniques. The decision function that maps input points to output points is based on the result of optimization. This optimization is the central of learning theory. One approach to complex systems where the dynamics of the system is inferred by a statistical analysis of the fluctuations in time of some associated observable is time series analysis. The purpose of this paper is a mathematical transition from the autoregressive model of classical time series to the matrix formalization of quantum theory. Firstly, we have proposed a quantum time series model (QTS). Although Hamiltonian technique becomes an established tool to detect a deterministic chaos, other approaches emerge. The quantum probabilistic technique is used to motivate the construction of our QTS model. The QTS model resembles the quantum dynamic model which was applied to financial data. Secondly, various statistical methods, including machine learning algorithms such as the Kalman filter algorithm, are applied to estimate and analyses the unknown parameters of the model. Finally, simulation techniques such as Markov chain Monte Carlo have been used to support our investigations. The proposed model has been examined by using real and simulated data. We establish the relation between quantum statistical machine and quantum time series via random matrix theory. It is interesting to note that the primary focus of the application of QTS in the field of quantum chaos was to find a model that explain chaotic behaviour. Maybe this model will reveal another insight into quantum chaos.

Keywords: machine learning, simulation techniques, quantum probability, tensor product, time series

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Authors: Mathodzi Nditsheni, Olawole Emmanuel Aina, Joshua Oluwole Olowoyo

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The ever-increasing world population is putting extreme pressure on the already limited agricultural resources for food production. Different soil enhancers were introduced by famers to meet the need of the ever-increasing population demand for food. One of the soil enhancers is the municipal waste sludge. This research investigated the differences in the concentrations of trace metals and levels of phytochemicals in four different tomato varieties cultivated on soil treated with municipal waste sludge in Pretoria, South Africa. Fruits were harvested at maturity and analyzed for trace metals and phytochemicals contents using Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP-OES) and a High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) respectively. A one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine the differences in the concentrations of trace metals and phytochemical from different tomato varieties were significant. From the study, Rodade tomato bioaccumulated the highest concentrations of Mn, Cr, Cu and Ni, Roma bioaccumulated the highest concentrations of, Cd, Fe and Pb while Heinz bioaccumulated the highest concentrations of As and Zn. Cherry tomato on the other hand, recorded the lowest concentrations for most metals, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn. The results of the study further showed that phenolic and flavonoids content were higher in the Solanum lycopersicum fruit grown in soils treated with municipal waste sludge. The study also showed that there was an inverse relationship between the levels of trace metals and phytochemicals. The calculated contamination factor values of trace metals like Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn were above the safe value of 1 which indicated that the tomato fruits may be unsafe for human consumption. However, the contamination factor values for the remaining trace metals were well below the safe value of 1. From the results obtained either for the control group or the treatment, the tomato varieties used in the study, bioaccumulated the toxic trace metals in their fruits and some of the values obtained were higher than the acceptable limit, which may then imply that the varieties of tomato used in this study bio accumulated the toxic trace metals from the soil, hence care should be taken when these tomato varieties are either cultivated or harvested from polluted areas

Keywords: trace metals, flavonoids, phenolics, waste sludge, tomato, contamination factors

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Authors: A. Mohammadi, M. Moghimi, S. Mohammadi

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Engineers need computational methods which could provide solutions less sensitive to the environmental effects, so the techniques should be used which take the uncertainty to account to control and minimize the risk associated with design and operation. In order to consider uncertainty in engineering problem, the optimization problem should be solved for a suitable range of the each uncertain input variable instead of just one estimated point. Using deterministic optimization problem, a large computational burden is required to consider every possible and probable combination of uncertain input variables. Several methods have been reported in the literature to deal with problems under uncertainty. In this paper, different methods presented and analyzed.

Keywords: uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulated, stochastic programming, scenario method

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Authors: Rajesh Singh, Kailash Kale

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In this paper, the Binomial process type occurrence of software failures is considered and failure intensity has been characterized by one parameter Rayleigh class Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM). The proposed SRGM is mathematical function of parameters namely; total number of failures i.e. η-0 and scale parameter i.e. η-1. It is assumed that very little or no information is available about both these parameters and then considering non-informative priors for both these parameters, the Bayes estimators for the parameters η-0 and η-1 have been obtained under square error loss function. The proposed Bayes estimators are compared with their corresponding maximum likelihood estimators on the basis of risk efficiencies obtained by Monte Carlo simulation technique. It is concluded that both the proposed Bayes estimators of total number of failures and scale parameter perform well for proper choice of execution time.

Keywords: binomial process, non-informative prior, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), rayleigh class, software reliability growth model (SRGM)

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Authors: Sultan Ben Jaber

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Optical properties of molecules exhibit dramatic changes when adsorbed close to nano-structure metallic surfaces such as gold and silver nanomaterial. This phenomena opened a wide range of research to improve conventional spectroscopies efficiency. A well-known technique that has an intensive focus of study is surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS), as since the first observation of SERS phenomena, researchers have published a great number of articles about the potential mechanisms behind this effect as well as developing materials to maximize the enhancement. Infrared and Raman spectroscopy are complementary techniques; thus, surface-enhanced infrared absorption (SEIRA) also shows a noticeable enhancement of molecules in the mid-IR excitation on nonmetallic structure substrates. In the SEIRA, vibrational modes that gave change in dipole moments perpendicular to the nano-metallic substrate enhanced 200 times greater than the free molecule’s modes. SEIRA spectroscopy is promising for the characterization and identification of adsorbed molecules on metallic surfaces, especially at trace levels. IR reflection-absorption spectroscopy (IRAS) is a well-known technique for measuring IR spectra of adsorbed molecules on metallic surfaces. However, SEIRA spectroscopy sensitivity is up to 50 times higher than IRAS. SEIRA enhancement has been observed for a wide range of molecules adsorbed on metallic substrates such as Au, Ag, Pd, Pt, Al, and Ni, but Au and Ag substrates exhibited the highest enhancement among the other mentioned substrates. In this work, trace levels of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) have been detected using gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) substrates with surface-enhanced infrared absorption (SEIRA). AuNPs were first prepared and washed, then mixed with different concentrations of MDMA samples. The process of fabricating the substrate prior SEIRA measurements included mixing of AuNPs and MDMA samples followed by vigorous stirring. The stirring step is particularly crucial, as stirring allows molecules to be robustly adsorbed on AuNPs. Thus, remarkable SEIRA was observed for MDMA samples even at trace levels, showing the rigidity of our approach to preparing SEIRA substrates.

Keywords: surface-enhanced infrared absorption (SEIRA), gold nanoparticles (AuNPs), amphetamines, methylene dioxy- methamphetamine (MDMA), enhancement factor

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Authors: A. Anastasopoulou, A. Kolios, T. Somorin, A. Sowale, Y. Jiang, B. Fidalgo, A. Parker, L. Williams, M. Collins, E. J. McAdam, S. Tyrrel

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Developing countries are nowadays confronted with great challenges related to domestic sanitation services in view of the imminent water scarcity. Contemporary sanitation technologies established in these countries are likely to pose health risks unless waste management standards are followed properly. This paper provides a solution to sustainable sanitation with the development of an innovative toilet system, called Nano Membrane Toilet (NMT), which has been developed by Cranfield University and sponsored by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The particular technology converts human faeces into energy through gasification and provides treated wastewater from urine through membrane filtration. In order to evaluate the environmental profile of the NMT system, a deterministic life cycle assessment (LCA) has been conducted in SimaPro software employing the Ecoinvent v3.3 database. The particular study has determined the most contributory factors to the environmental footprint of the NMT system. However, as sensitivity analysis has identified certain critical operating parameters for the robustness of the LCA results, adopting a stochastic approach to the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) will comprehensively capture the input data uncertainty and enhance the credibility of the LCA outcome. For that purpose, Monte Carlo simulations, in combination with an artificial neural network (ANN) model, have been conducted for the input parameters of raw material, produced electricity, NO_X emissions, amount of ash and transportation of fertilizer. The given analysis has provided the distribution and the confidence intervals of the selected impact categories and, in turn, more credible conclusions are drawn on the respective LCIA (Life Cycle Impact Assessment) profile of NMT system. Last but not least, the specific study will also yield essential insights into the methodological framework that can be adopted in the environmental impact assessment of other complex engineering systems subject to a high level of input data uncertainty.

Keywords: sanitation systems, nano-membrane toilet, lca, stochastic uncertainty analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, artificial neural network

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Authors: Mudavath Raju, Bhaskar Gugulothu, B. Rajendra Naik

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The rapid advances in Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) technology has resulted in the reduction of minimum feature size to sub-quarter microns and switching time in tens of picoseconds or even less. As a result, the degradation of high-speed digital circuits due to signal integrity issues such as coupling effects, clock feedthrough, crosstalk noise and delay uncertainty noise. Crosstalk noise in VLSI interconnects is a major concern and reduction in VLSI interconnect has become more important for high-speed digital circuits. It is the most effectively considered in Deep Sub Micron (DSM) and Ultra Deep Sub Micron (UDSM) technology. Increasing spacing in-between aggressor and victim line is one of the technique to reduce the crosstalk. Guard trace or shield insertion in-between aggressor and victim is also one of the prominent options for the minimization of crosstalk. In this paper, far end crosstalk noise is estimated with mutual inductance and capacitance RLC interconnect model. Also investigated the extent of crosstalk in capacitive and inductively coupled interconnects to minimizes the same through shield insertion technique.

Keywords: VLSI, interconnects, signal integrity, crosstalk, shield insertion, guard trace, deep sub micron

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Authors: Azmawati Mohammed Nawi, Siok-Fong Chin, Shamsul Azhar Shah, Rahman Jamal

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In recent years, trace elements have gained importance as biomarkers in many chronic diseases. Unfortunately, the requirement for sample volume increases according to the extent of investigation for diagnosis or elucidating the mechanism of the disease. Here, we describe the method development and validation for simultaneous determination of 25 trace elements (lithium (Li), beryllium (Be), magnesium (Mg), aluminium (Al), vanadium (V), chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), gallium (Ga), arsenic (As), selenium (Se), rubidium (Rb), strontium (Sr), silver (Ag), cadmium (Cd), caesium (Cs), barium (Ba), mercury (Hg), thallium (Tl), lead (Pb), uranium (U)) using just 20 µL of human serum. Serum samples were digested with nitric acid and hydrochloric acid (ratio 1:1, v/v) and analysed using inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Seronorm®, a human-derived serum control material was used as quality control samples. The intra-day and inter-day precisions were consistently < 15% for all elements. The validated method was later applied to 30 human serum samples to evaluate its suitability. In conclusion, we have successfully developed and validated a precise and accurate analytical method for determining 25 trace elements requiring very low volume of human serum.

Keywords: acid digestion, ICP-MS, trace element, serum

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Authors: Mohammed El-Arbi Khalfallah, Mohamed Lakhdar Hadji

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Managing and controlling risk is a topic research in the world of finance. Before a risky situation, the stakeholders need to do comparison according to the positions and actions, and financial institutions must take measures of a particular market risk and credit. In this work, we study a model of risk measure in finance: Value at Risk (VaR), which is a new tool for measuring an entity's exposure risk. We explain the concept of value at risk, your average, tail, and describe the three methods for computing: Parametric method, Historical method, and numerical method of Monte Carlo. Finally, we briefly describe advantages and disadvantages of the three methods for computing value at risk.

Keywords: average value at risk, conditional value at risk, tail value at risk, value at risk

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Authors: Yasir M. Alyazichi, Brian G. Jones, Errol McLean, Hamd N. Altalyan, Ali K. M. Al-Nasrawi

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The main purpose of this study is to assess the sediment quality and potential ecological risk in marine sediments in Gymea Bay located in south Sydney, Australia. A total of 32 surface sediment samples were collected from the bay. Current track trajectories and velocities have also been measured in the bay. The resultant trace elements were compared with the adverse biological effect values Effect Range Low (ERL) and Effect Range Median (ERM) classifications. The results indicate that the average values of chromium, arsenic, copper, zinc, and lead in surface sediments all reveal low pollution levels and are below ERL and ERM values. The highest concentrations of trace elements were found close to discharge points and in the inner bay, and were linked with high percentages of clay minerals, pyrite and organic matter, which can play a significant role in trapping and accumulating these elements. The lowest concentrations of trace elements were found to be on the shoreline of the bay, which contained high percentages of sand fractions. It is postulated that the fine particles and trace elements are disturbed by currents and tides, then transported and deposited in deeper areas. The current track velocities recorded in Gymea Bay had the capability to transport fine particles and trace element pollution within the bay. As a result, hydrodynamic measurements were able to provide useful information and to help explain the distribution of sedimentary particles and geochemical properties. This may lead to knowledge transfer to other bay systems, including those in remote areas. These activities can be conducted at a low cost, and are therefore also transferrable to developing countries. The advent of portable instruments to measure trace elements in the field has also contributed to the development of these lower cost and easily applied methodologies available for use in remote locations and low-cost economies.

Keywords: current track velocities, gymea bay, surface sediments, trace elements

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Authors: Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

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Statistical inference of normal mean with known coefficient of variation has been investigated recently. This phenomenon occurs normally in environment and agriculture experiments when the scientist knows the coefficient of variation of their experiments. In this paper, we constructed new confidence intervals for the normal population mean with known coefficient of variation. We also derived analytic expressions for the coverage probability of each confidence interval. To confirm our theoretical results, Monte Carlo simulation will be used to assess the performance of these intervals based on their coverage probabilities.

Keywords: confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, known coefficient of variation

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Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

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Authors: W. Benstaali, A. Belasri

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In this work we study a planar lamp filled with neon-xenon gas. We use a one-dimensional particle in a cell with Monte Carlo simulation (PIC-MCC) to investigate the effect xenon concentration on the energy deposited on excitation, ionization and ions. A Xe-Ne discharge is studied for a gas pressure of 400 torr. The results show an efficient Xe20-Ne mixture with an applied voltage of 1.2KV; the xenon excitation energy represents 65% form total energy dissipated in the discharge. We have also studied electrical properties and the energy balance a discharge for Xe50-Ne which needs a voltage of 2kv; the xenon energy is than more important.

Keywords: dielectric barrier discharge, efficiency, excitation, lamps

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Authors: Gubhinder Kundhi, Paul Rilstone

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It is well established that Instrumental Variable (IV) estimators in the presence of weak instruments can be poorly behaved, in particular, be quite biased in finite samples. Finite sample approximations to the distributions of these estimators are obtained using Edgeworth and Saddlepoint expansions. Departures from normality of the distributions of these estimators are analyzed using higher order analytical corrections in these expansions. In a Monte-Carlo experiment, the performance of these expansions is compared to the first order approximation and other methods commonly used in finite samples such as the bootstrap.

Keywords: bootstrap, Instrumental Variable, Edgeworth expansions, Saddlepoint expansions

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Authors: Yawei Liang

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Threat from cruise missiles is among the most dangerous considerations to a warship in the modern era: anti-ship cruise missiles are fast, accurate, and extremely destructive. In this paper, the goal was to use an object-orientated environment to program a simulation to model a scenario in which a lone frigate is attacked by a wave of missiles fired at given intervals. The parameters of the simulation are modified to examine the relationships between different variables in the situation, and an analysis is performed on various aspects of the defending ship’s equipment. Finally, the results are presented, along with a brief discussion.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, Monte Carlo simulation, naval resource management, weapon-target allocation/assignment

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Authors: Mahdy ‎Esmailian, Mahdi ‎Doostparast, Ahmad ‎Parsian

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‎In this article‎, ‎sequential order statistics (SOS) censoring type II samples coming from the generalized Pareto distribution are considered‎. ‎Maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the unknown parameters are derived on the basis of the available multiple SOS data‎. ‎Necessary conditions for existence and uniqueness of the derived ML estimates are given‎. Due to complexity in the proposed likelihood function‎, ‎a useful re-parametrization is suggested‎. ‎For illustrative purposes‎, ‎a Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted and an illustrative example is analysed‎.

Keywords: bayesian estimation‎, generalized pareto distribution‎, ‎maximum likelihood estimation‎, sequential order statistics

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Authors: M. Sharifi, M. Mirzaii, F. Bolourinovin, H. Yousefnia, M. Akbari, K. Yousefi-Mojir

Abstract:

A multilayer passive shield composed of low-activity lead (Pb), copper (Cu), tin (Sn) and iron (Fe) was designed and manufactured for a coaxial HPGe detector placed at a surface laboratory for reducing background radiation and radiation dose to the personnel. The performance of the shield was evaluated and efficiency curves of the detector were plotted by using of the various standard sources in different distances. Monte Carlo simulations and a set of TLD chips were used for dose estimation in two distances of 20 and 40 cm. The results show that the shield reduced background spectrum and the personnel dose more than 95%.

Keywords: HPGe shield, background count, personnel dose, efficiency curve

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Authors: Muslim Khan, Kenneth B. Jensen, Kevin A. Francesconi

Abstract:

Trace amounts (ca 1 µg/L, 13 nM) of arsenic are present in sea water mostly as the oxyanion arsenate. In contrast, arsenic is present in marine biota (animals and algae) at very high levels (up to100,000 µg/kg) a significant portion of which is present as lipid-soluble compounds collectively termed arsenolipids. The complex nature of sea water presents an analytical challenge to detect trace compounds and monitor their environmental path. We developed a simple method using liquid-liquid extraction combined with HPLC-High Resolution Mass Spectrometer capable of detecting trace of arsenolipids (99 % of the sample matrix while recovering > 80 % of the six target arsenolipids with limit of detection of 0.003 µg/L.)

Keywords: arsenolipids, sea water, HPLC-high resolution mass spectrometry

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Authors: Alexandru George Vaduva, Adriana Vlad, Bogdan Badea

Abstract:

In this research, we conduct a Monte Carlo analysis on a two-dimensional χ2 test, which is used to determine the minimum distance required for independent sampling in the context of chaotic signals. We investigate the impact of transforming initial data sets from any probability distribution to new signals with a uniform distribution using the Spearman rank correlation on the χ2 test. This transformation removes the randomness of the data pairs, and as a result, the observed distribution of χ2 test values differs from the expected distribution. We propose a solution to this problem and evaluate it using another chaotic signal.

Keywords: chaotic signals, logistic map, Pearson’s test, Chi Square test, bivariate distribution, statistical independence

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Authors: Nursen Saklakoglu, Adnan Turker

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to reveal the effect of the Thixoforming process on the microstructure and mechanical properties of the AlSi12 alloy with trace amounts of silver. It is concluded that Thixoforming has an important effect on the morphology of intermetallics and Si formation, as well as globular α-Al morphology. The intermetallics have been fractured during thixoforming. It is believed that the fine distribution of the intermetallics is one mechanism for the improved mechanical properties of Thixoformed alloys. The discrete Si particles have been observed during both isothermal heating to the semi-solid range and Thixoforming, also have an important effect on mechanical properties. The Thixoforming process has a greater effect on hardness than the addition of Ag does.

Keywords: AlSi alloys, intermetallic phases, mechanical properties trace element, silver, thixoforming

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Authors: Milos Travar, Jovana Nikolov, Andrej Vranicar, Natasa Todorovic

Abstract:

Over the years, High Purity Germanium (HPGe) detectors proved to be an excellent practical tool and, as such, have established their today's wide use in low background γ-spectrometry. One of the advantages of gamma-ray spectrometry is its easy sample preparation as chemical processing and separation of the studied subject are not required. Thus, with a single measurement, one can simultaneously perform both qualitative and quantitative analysis. One of the most prominent features of HPGe detectors, besides their excellent efficiency, is their superior resolution. This feature virtually allows a researcher to perform a thorough analysis by discriminating photons of similar energies in the studied spectra where otherwise they would superimpose within a single-energy peak and, as such, could potentially scathe analysis and produce wrongly assessed results. Naturally, this feature is of great importance when the identification of radionuclides, as well as their activity concentrations, is being practiced where high precision comes as a necessity. In measurements of this nature, in order to be able to reproduce good and trustworthy results, one has to have initially performed an adequate full-energy peak (FEP) efficiency calibration of the used equipment. However, experimental determination of the response, i.e., efficiency curves for a given detector-sample configuration and its geometry, is not always easy and requires a certain set of reference calibration sources in order to account for and cover broader energy ranges of interest. With the goal of overcoming these difficulties, a lot of researches turned towards the application of different software toolkits that implement the Monte Carlo method (e.g., MCNP, FLUKA, PENELOPE, Geant4, etc.), as it has proven time and time again to be a very powerful tool. In the process of creating a reliable model, one has to have well-established and described specifications of the detector. Unfortunately, the documentation that manufacturers provide alongside the equipment is rarely sufficient enough for this purpose. Furthermore, certain parameters tend to evolve and change over time, especially with older equipment. Deterioration of these parameters consequently decreases the active volume of the crystal and can thus affect the efficiencies by a large margin if they are not properly taken into account. In this study, the optimisation method of two HPGe detectors through the implementation of the Geant4 toolkit developed by CERN is described, with the goal of further improving simulation accuracy in calculations of FEP efficiencies by investigating the influence of certain detector variables (e.g., crystal-to-window distance, dead layer thicknesses, inner crystal’s void dimensions, etc.). Detectors on which the optimisation procedures were carried out were a standard traditional co-axial extended range detector (XtRa HPGe, CANBERRA) and a broad energy range planar detector (BEGe, CANBERRA). Optimised models were verified through comparison with experimentally obtained data from measurements of a set of point-like radioactive sources. Acquired results of both detectors displayed good agreement with experimental data that falls under an average statistical uncertainty of ∼ 4.6% for XtRa and ∼ 1.8% for BEGe detector within the energy range of 59.4−1836.1 [keV] and 59.4−1212.9 [keV], respectively.

Keywords: HPGe detector, γ spectrometry, efficiency, Geant4 simulation, Monte Carlo method

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