Search results for: Markov Regime Switching

Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise linear regression models are very flexible models for modeling the data. If the piecewise linear regression models are matched against the data, then the parameters are generally not known. This paper studies the problem of parameter estimation of piecewise linear regression models. The method used to estimate the parameters of picewise linear regression models is Bayesian method. But the Bayes estimator can not be found analytically. To overcome these problems, the reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of the parameters of picewise linear regression models. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of picewise linear regression models.

Keywords: regression, piecewise, Bayesian, reversible Jump MCMC

Procedia PDF Downloads 489

Authors: A. Robbin

Abstract:

In a multilingual setting like Nigeria, the success of service encounters is enhanced by the use of a language that ensures the linguistic and persuasive demands of the interlocutors. This study examined motivations for code switching as a negotiation strategy in bank-hall desk service encounters in Ìbàdàn metropolis using Myers-Scotton’s exploration on markedness in language use. The data consisted of transcribed audio recording of bank-hall service encounters, and direct observation of bank interactions in two purposively sampled commercial banks in Ìbàdàn metropolis. The data was subjected to descriptive linguistic analysis using Myers Scotton’s Markedness Model.  Findings reveal that code switching is frequently employed during different stages of service encounter: greeting, transaction and closing to fulfil relational, bargaining and referential functions. Bank staff and customers code switch to make unmarked, marked and explanatory choices. A strategy used to identify with customer’s cultural affiliation, close status gap, and appeal to begrudged customer; or as an explanatory choice with non-literate customers for ease of communication. Bankers select English to maintain customers’ perceptions of prestige which is retained or diverged from depending on their linguistic preference or ability.  Yoruba is seen as an efficient negotiation strategy with both bankers and their customers, making choices within conversation to achieve desired conversational and functional aims.

Keywords: banking, bilingualism, code-switching, markedness, service encounter

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Diep Thanh Tung, Joachim Aurbacher

Abstract:

This study aims to measure the level of on-farm diversification in Vietnam. The empirical results of the research carried out reflect regional differences in terms of on-farm diversification and its determinants. Households in the northern regions have adapted to the fragmented and small-sized parcels of land held by diversifying their on-farm activities. In contrast, the Mekong delta region in the south of Vietnam is characterized by larger agricultural parcels and a specialization in rice production. Land use fragmentation, as reflected by a large number of plots in a given area, is one of the most important reasons for the high levels of on-farm diversification seen, while the higher share of non-farm income in total income is the reason of lower levels of on-farm diversification. Households have reacted to natural and economic shocks by diversifying their on-farm activities. The non-stationary Markov chain model used here shows various diversification scenarios and trends. In most cases, on-farm diversification generally tends to reduce over the next few years.

Keywords: diversification, simpson index, fixed effects, non-stationary markov chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 459

Authors: Hoa Pham

Abstract:

The literature on language teaching and second language acquisition has been largely driven by monolingual ideology with a common assumption that a second language (L2) is best taught and learned in the L2 only. The current study challenges this assumption by reporting learners' positive perceptions of tertiary level teachers' code switching practices in Vietnam. The findings of this study contribute to our understanding of code switching practices in language classrooms from a learners' perspective. Data were collected from student participants who were working towards a Bachelor degree in English within the English for Business Communication stream through the use of focus group interviews. The literature has documented that this method of interviewing has a number of distinct advantages over individual student interviews. For instance, group interactions generated by focus groups create a more natural environment than that of an individual interview because they include a range of communicative processes in which each individual may influence or be influenced by others - as they are in their real life. The process of interaction provides the opportunity to obtain the meanings and answers to a problem that are "socially constructed rather than individually created" leading to the capture of real-life data. The distinct feature of group interaction offered by this technique makes it a powerful means of obtaining deeper and richer data than those from individual interviews. The data generated through this study were analysed using a constant comparative approach. Overall, the students expressed positive views of this practice indicating that it is a useful teaching strategy. Teacher code switching was seen as a learning resource and a source supporting language output. This practice was perceived to promote student comprehension and to aid the learning of content and target language knowledge. This practice was also believed to scaffold the students' language production in different contexts. However, the students indicated their preference for teacher code switching to be constrained, as extensive use was believed to negatively impact on their L2 learning and trigger cognitive reliance on the L1 for L2 learning. The students also perceived that when the L1 was used to a great extent, their ability to develop as autonomous learners was negatively impacted. This study found that teacher code switching was supported in certain contexts by learners, thus suggesting that there is a need for the widespread assumption about the monolingual teaching approach to be re-considered.

Keywords: codeswitching, L1 use, L2 teaching, learners’ perception

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Shengqi Yu, Jinwei Zhao

Abstract:

This paper presents a kind of analog circuit based temperature control system, which is mainly composed by threshold control signal circuit, synchronization signal circuit and trigger pulse circuit. Firstly, the temperature feedback signal function is realized by temperature sensor TS503F3950E. Secondly, the main control circuit forms the cycle controlled pulse signal to control the thyristor switching model. Finally two reverse paralleled thyristors regulate the output power by their switching state. In the consequence, this is a modernized and energy-saving domestic electric heating system.

Keywords: time base circuit, automatic control, zero-crossing trigger, temperature control

Procedia PDF Downloads 447

Authors: Nikita Koradia

Abstract:

Hyundai Motor Company, which started off as a small fish in a big sea, paved its way out successfully and established itself as an independent group from the conglomerate. Hyundai, with its officious power across the globe and particularly in South Korea in the automobile industry, has one the most complex yet fascinating governance structure. Being the second largest contributor to the Gross Domestic Product of South Korea after Samsung and having a market share of 51.3% domestically in automobile industry, Hyundai has faced its part of criticism owing to its anti-labor union approach and owing to its internalization of supply chain management. The censure has been coming from across jurisdictions like China, India, Canada, the EU, etc. The paper focuses on the growth of Hyundai and its inward and outward investment structure. The paper questions the ability of Hyundai to become a mini-state in itself by focusing on its governance structure. The paper further elaborates on its compliance and disclosure regime in the field of Corporate social responsibility and explores how far the business structure adopted by Hyundai works in its favor to become one of the leading automobile contenders in the market.

Keywords: compliance regime, disclosure regime, Hyundai motor company, supply-chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: William L. Whitehouse, Louisa H. Y. Lo, Andrew B. Kinghorn, Simon C. C. Shiu, Julian. A. Tanner

Abstract:

C-reactive protein (CRP) is an acute-phase reactant and sensitive indicator for sepsis and other life-threatening pathologies, including systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Currently, clinical turn-around times for established CRP detection methods take between 30 minutes to hours or even days from centralized laboratories. Here, we report the development of an electrochemical biosensor using redox probe-tagged DNA aptamers functionalized onto cheap, commercially available screen-printed electrodes. Binding-induced conformational switching of the CRP-targeting aptamer induces a specific and selective signal-ON event, which enables single-step and reagentless detection of CRP in as little as 1 minute. The aptasensor dynamic range spans 5-1000nM (R=0.97) or 5-500nM (R=0.99) in 50% diluted human serum, with a LOD of 3nM, corresponding to 2-orders of magnitude sensitivity under the clinically relevant cut-off for CRP. The sensor is stable for up to one week and can be reused numerous times, as judged from repeated real-time dosing and dose-response assays. By decoupling binding events from the signal induction mechanism, structure-switching electrochemical aptamer-based sensors (SS-EABs) provide considerable advantages over their adsorption-based counterparts. Our work expands on the retinue of such sensors reported in the literature and is the first instance of an SS-EAB for reagentless CRP detection. We hope this study can inspire further investigations into the suitability of SS-EABs for diagnostics, which will aid translational R&D toward fully realized devices aimed at point-of-care applications or for use more broadly by the public.

Keywords: structure-switching, C-reactive protein, electrochemical, biosensor, aptasensor.

Procedia PDF Downloads 24

Authors: P. C. Tewari, Parveen Kumar

Abstract:

The paper describes the availability analysis of milling system of a rice milling plant using probabilistic approach. The subsystems under study are special purpose machines. The availability analysis of the system is carried out to determine the effect of failure and repair rates of each subsystem on overall performance (i.e. steady state availability) of system concerned. Further, on the basis of effect of repair rates on the system availability, maintenance repair priorities have been suggested. The problem is formulated using Markov Birth-Death process taking exponential distribution for probable failures and repair rates. The first order differential equations associated with transition diagram are developed by using mnemonic rule. These equations are solved using normalizing conditions and recursive method to drive out the steady state availability expression of the system. The findings of the paper are presented and discussed with the plant personnel to adopt a suitable maintenance policy to increase the productivity of the rice milling plant.

Keywords: availability modeling, Markov process, milling system, rice milling plant

Procedia PDF Downloads 203

Authors: Festa Shabani

Abstract:

This paper aims at investigating bilingual speech in the International Schools of Prishtina. More particularly, it seeks to analyze bilingual phenomena among adolescent students highly exposed to English with the latter as the language of instruction at school in naturally-occurring conversations within school environment. Adolescence was deliberately chosen since it is regarded as an age when peer influence on language choice is the greatest. Driven by daily unsystematic observation and prior research already undertaken, the hypothesis stated is that Albanian continues to be the dominant language among Prishtina international schools’ students with a lot of code-switched items from the English. Furthermore, they will also use lexical borrowings - words already adapted in the receiving language, from the language they have been in contact with, in their speech often in the lack of existing equivalents in Albanian or for other reasons. This is done owing to the fact that the language of instruction at school is English, and any topic related to the language they have been exposed to will trigger them to use English. Therefore, this needs special attention in an attempt to identify patterns of their speech; in this way, linguistic and socio-pragmatic factors will be considered when analyzing the motivations behind their language choice. Methodology for collecting data include participant systematic observation and tape-recording. While observing them in their natural conversations, the fieldworker also took notes, which helped transcribe details better. The paper starts by raising the question of whether code-switching is occurring among Prishtina International Schools’ students highly exposed to English. The data gathered from students in informal settings suggests that there are well-founded grounds for an affirmative answer. The participants in this study are observed to be code-switching, although showing differences in degree. However, a generalization cannot be made on the basis of the findings except in so far it appears that English has, in turn, became a language to which they turn when identifying with the group when discussing about particular school topics. Particularly, participants seemed to use intra-sentential CS in cases when they seem to find an English expression rather easier than an Albanian one when repeating or emphasizing a point when urged to talk about educational issues with English being their language of instruction, and inter-sentential code-switching, particularly when quoting others. Concerning the grammatical aspect of code-switching, the intrasentential CS is used more than the intersentetial one. Speaking of gender, the results show that there were really no significant differences in regards quantity between male and female participants. However, the slight tendency for men to code switch intrasententially more than women was manifested. Similarly, a slight tendency again for a difference to emerge is on intersentential switching, which contributes 21% to the total number of switches for women, but 11% to the total number of switches for men.

Keywords: Albanian, code-switching contact linguistics, bilingual phenomena, lexical borrowing, English

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Yiqi Wu, Simon Tait, Andrew Nichols

Abstract:

Management of UK railway drainage assets is challenging due to the large amounts of historical assets with long asset life cycles. A major concern for asset managers is to maintain the required performance economically and efficiently while complying with the relevant regulation and legislation. As the majority of the drainage assets are buried underground and are often difficult or costly to examine, it is important for asset managers to understand and model the degradation process in order to foresee the upcoming reduction in asset performance and conduct proactive maintenance accordingly. In this research, a Markov chain approach is used to model the deterioration process of rail drainage assets. The study is based on historical condition scores and characteristics of drainage assets across the whole railway network in England, Scotland, and Wales. The model is used to examine the effect of various characteristics on the probabilities of degradation, for example, the regional difference in probabilities of degradation, and how material and shape can influence the deterioration process for chambers, channels, and pipes.

Keywords: deterioration, degradation, markov models, probability, railway drainage

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Kristiina Teiss

Abstract:

Estonians and children having Estonian as a one of their languages have lately become the fastest growing minority or bilingual group in Finland which underlines the importance of studying this target group. The acquisition of bilingualism by an infant is affected by many different issues like the child’s personal traits, language differences, and different environmental factors such as people´s attitudes towards languages and bilingualism. In the early years the most important factor is the children’s interaction with their parents and siblings. This poster gives an overview to the material and some preliminary findings of ongoing PhD study concerning code-mixing, code-switching and language attitudes of two bilingual 10-11 year old children. Data was collected from two different bilingual families, one of them living in Tampere, Finland and one of them moved during the study to Tallinn, Estonia. The data includes audio recordings of the families’ interactions with their children when they were aged 2-3 years old and then when they were 10-11 years old. The data also includes recorded semi-structured queries of the parents, as well as recorded semi-structured queries of the children when they were in the age of 10-11 years. The features of code-mixing can vary depending on norms or models in the families, or even according to its use by two parents in same family. The practices studied in the ongoing longitudinal case study, based on a framework of ethnography, contain parental conversational strategies and family attitudes as well as CS (code-switching and code-mixing) cases occurring both in children and adult language. The aim of this paper is to find out whether there is a connection between children’s attitudes and their daily language use. It would be also interesting to find some evidence, as to whether living in different countries has different impacts on using two languages. The results of dissertation maid give some directional suggestions on how language maintenance of Estonian-Finnish bilinguals could be supported, although generalizations on the base of case study could not be done.

Keywords: code switching, Estonian, Finnish, language attitudes

Procedia PDF Downloads 341

Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: piecewise regression, bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation

Procedia PDF Downloads 340

Authors: Innocent Pangapanga, Eric Mungatana

Abstract:

Fall armyworm (FAW) (Spodoptera frugiperda), an invasive lepidopteran pest, has caused substantial yield loss since its first detection in September 2016, thereby threatening the farm productivity food security and poverty reduction initiatives in Malawi. Several stakeholders, including households, have adopted chemical pesticides to control FAW without accounting for its costs on welfare, health and the environment. Thus, this study has used panel data endogenous switching regression model to investigate the impact of FAW and the integrated pest management (IPM) –related practices on-farm productivity and food security. The study finds that FAW substantively reduces farm productivity by seven (7) percent and influences the adoption of IPM –related practices, namely, intercropping, mulching, and agroforestry, by 6 percent, ceteris paribus. Interestingly, multiple adoptions of the IPM -related practices noticeably increase farm productivity by 21 percent. After accounting for potential endogeneity through the endogenous switching regression model, the IPM practices further demonstrate tenfold more improvement on food security, implying the role of the IPM –related practices in containing the effect of FAW at the household level.

Keywords: hunger, invasive fall army worms, integrated pest management practices, farm productivity, endogenous switching regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Carmela Perta

Abstract:

Among the studies flourished in the field of historical sociolinguistics, mainly in the strand devoted to English history, during its Medieval and early modern phases, multilingual texts had been analysed using theories and models coming from contact linguistics, thus applying synchronic models and approaches to the past. This is true also in the case of contact phenomena which would transcend the writing level involving the language systems implicated in contact processes to the point of perceiving a new variety. This is the case for medieval administrative-commercial texts in which, according to some Scholars, the degree of fusion of Anglo-Norman, Latin and middle English is so high a mixed code emerges, and there are recurrent patterns of mixed forms. Interesting is a collection of multilingual business writings by John Balmayn, an Englishman overseeing a large shipment in Tuscany, namely the Cantelowe accounts. These documents display various analogies with multilingual texts written in England in the same period; in fact, the writer seems to make use of the above-mentioned patterns, with Middle English, Latin, Anglo-Norman, and the newly added Italian. Applying an atomistic yet dynamic approach to the study of contact phenomena, we will investigate these documents, trying to explore the nature of the switching forms they contain from an intra-writer variation perspective. After analysing the accounts and the type of multilingualism in them, we will take stock of the assumed mixed code nature, comparing the characteristics found in this genre with modern assumptions. The aim is to evaluate the possibility to consider the switching forms as core elements of a mixed code, used as professional variety among merchant communities, or whether such texts should be analysed from a switching perspective.

Keywords: historical sociolinguistics, historical code switching, letters, medieval england

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: S. Arun Prakash, V. Malathi, M. S. Mani Rajan

Abstract:

The analytical bright two soliton solution of the 3-coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equations with variable coefficients in birefringent optical fiber is obtained by Darboux transformation method. To the design of ultra-speed optical devices, Soliton interaction and control in birefringence fiber is investigated. Lax pair is constructed for N coupled NLS system through AKNS method. Using two soliton solution, we demonstrate different interaction behaviors of solitons in birefringent fiber depending on the choice of control parameters. Our results shows that interactions of optical solitons have some specific applications such as construction of logic gates, optical computing, soliton switching, and soliton amplification in wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) system.

Keywords: optical soliton, soliton interaction, soliton switching, WDM

Procedia PDF Downloads 474

Authors: Chiao-Chen Chang, Yang-Chieh Chin

Abstract:

Social media has created a change in the way the network community is clustered, especially from the location of the community, from the original virtual space to the intertwined network, and thus the communication between people will change from face to face communication to social media-based communication model. However, social media users who have had a fixed engagement may have an intention to switch to another service provider because of the emergence of new forms of social media. For example, some of Facebook or Twitter users switched to Instagram in 2014 because of social media messages or image overloads, and users may seek simpler and instant social media to become their main social networking tool. This study explores the impact of system features overload, information overload, social monitoring concerns, problematic use and privacy concerns as the antecedents on social media fatigue, dissatisfaction, and alternative attractiveness; further influence social media switching. This study also uses the online questionnaire survey method to recover the sample data, and then confirm the factor analysis, path analysis, model fit analysis and mediating analysis with the structural equation model (SEM). Research findings demonstrated that there were significant effects on multiple paths. Based on the research findings, this study puts forward the implications of theory and practice.

Keywords: social media, switching, social media fatigue, alternative attractiveness

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Oluwatobiloba Moody

Abstract:

On October 12, 2014, the Nagoya Protocol, negotiated by Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), entered into force. The Protocol was negotiated to implement the third objective of the CBD which relates to the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the utilization of genetic resources (GRs). The Protocol aims to ‘protect’ GRs and traditional knowledge (TK) associated with GRs from ‘biopiracy’, through the establishment of a binding international regime on access and benefit sharing (ABS). In reflecting on the question of ‘effectiveness’ in the Protocol’s implementation, this paper argues that the underlying problem of ‘biopiracy’, which the Protocol seeks to address, is one which goes beyond the ABS regime. It rather thrives due to indispensable factors emanating from the global intellectual property (IP) regime. It contends that biopiracy therefore constitutes an international problem of ‘borders’ as much as of ‘regimes’ and, therefore, while the implementation of the Protocol may effectively address the ‘trans-border’ issues which have hitherto troubled African provider countries in their establishment of regulatory mechanisms, it remains unable to address the ‘trans-regime’ issues related to the eradication of biopiracy, especially those issues which involve the IP regime. This is due to the glaring incoherence in the Nagoya Protocol’s implementation and the existing global IP system. In arriving at conclusions, the paper examines the ongoing related discussions within the IP regime, specifically those within the WIPO Intergovernmental Committee on Intellectual Property and Genetic Resources, Traditional Knowledge and Folklore (IGC) and the WTO TRIPS Council. It concludes that the Protocol’s effectiveness in protecting TK associated with GRs is conditional on the attainment of outcomes, within the ongoing negotiations of the IP regime, which could be implemented in a coherent manner with the Nagoya Protocol. It proposes specific ways to achieve this coherence. Three main methodological steps have been incorporated in the paper’s development. First, a review of data accumulated over a two year period arising from the coordination of six important negotiating sessions of the WIPO Intergovernmental Committee on Intellectual Property and Genetic Resources, Traditional Knowledge and Folklore. In this respect, the research benefits from reflections on the political, institutional and substantive nuances which have coloured the IP negotiations and which provide both the context and subtext to emerging texts. Second, a desktop review of the history, nature and significance of the Nagoya Protocol, using relevant primary and secondary literature from international and national sources. Third, a comparative analysis of selected biopiracy cases is undertaken for the purpose of establishing the inseparability of the IP regime and the ABS regime in the conceptualization and development of solutions to biopiracy. A comparative analysis of select African regulatory mechanisms (Kenya, South Africa and Ethiopia and the ARIPO Swakopmund Protocol) for the protection of TK is also undertaken.

Keywords: biopiracy, intellectual property, Nagoya protocol, traditional knowledge

Procedia PDF Downloads 407

Authors: Ismail Aksoy, Haci Bodur, Nihan Altintaş

Abstract:

This paper introduces a boost converter with a new active snubber cell. In this circuit, all of the semiconductor components in the converter softly turns on and turns off with the help of the active snubber cell. Compared to the other converters, the proposed converter has advantages of size, number of components and cost. The main feature of proposed converter is that the extra voltage stresses do not occur on the main switches and main diodes. Also, the current stress on the main switch is acceptable level. Moreover, the proposed converter can operates under light load conditions and wide input line voltage. In this study, the operating principle of the proposed converter is presented and its operation is verified with the Proteus simulation software for a 1 kW and 100 kHz model.

Keywords: active snubber cell, boost converter, zero current switching, zero voltage switching

Procedia PDF Downloads 995

Authors: Naim Suleyman Ting, Yakup Sahin, Ismail Aksoy

Abstract:

This paper presents a zero voltage transition-zero current transition (ZVT-ZCT)-PWM DC-DC boost converter with direct power transfer. In this converter, the main switch turns on with ZVT and turns off with ZCT. The auxiliary switch turns on and off with zero current switching (ZCS). The main diode turns on with ZVS and turns off with ZCS. Besides, the additional current or voltage stress does not occur on the main device. The converter has features as simple structure, fast dynamic response and easy control. Also, the proposed converter has direct power transfer feature as well as excellent soft switching techniques. In this study, the operating principle of the converter is presented and its operation is verified for 1 kW and 100 kHz model.

Keywords: direct power transfer, boost converter, zero-voltage transition, zero-current transition

Procedia PDF Downloads 786

Authors: V. Makis, L. Jafari

Abstract:

In this paper, we develop an optimal Bayesian chart to control the expected number of defects per inspection unit in production processes with long production runs. We formulate this control problem in the optimal stopping framework. The objective is to determine the optimal stopping rule minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time considering partial information obtained from the process sampling at regular epochs. We prove the optimality of the control limit policy, i.e., the process is stopped and the search for assignable causes is initiated when the posterior probability that the process is out of control exceeds a control limit. An algorithm in the semi-Markov decision process framework is developed to calculate the optimal control limit and the corresponding average cost. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the developed optimal control chart and to compare it with the traditional u-chart.

Keywords: Bayesian u-chart, economic design, optimal stopping, semi-Markov decision process, statistical process control

Procedia PDF Downloads 541

Authors: Jae-Chang Kwak, Yong-Seo Koo

Abstract:

The high efficiency power management IC (PMIC) with switching device is presented in this paper. PMIC is controlled with PFM control method in order to have high power efficiency at high current level. Dynamic Threshold voltage CMOS (DT-CMOS) with low on-resistance is designed to decrease conduction loss. The threshold voltage of DT-CMOS drops as the gate voltage increase, resulting in a much higher current handling capability than standard MOSFET. PFM control circuits consist of a generator, AND gate and comparator. The generator is made to have 1.2MHz oscillation voltage. The DC-DC converter based on PFM control circuit and low on-resistance switching device is presented in this paper.

Keywords: DT-CMOS, PMIC, PFM, DC-DC converter

Procedia PDF Downloads 426

Authors: Hina Munir Abbasi

Abstract:

The current paper examines the relationship and diversification ability of Islamic stock indices /conventional stocks indices and Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs).To represent conditional dependency between stocks and REITs in a more realistic way, new modeling technique, time-varying copula with switching dependence is used. It represents reliance structure more accurately and realistically than a single copula regime as dependence may alter between positive and negative correlation regimes with time. The fluctuating behavior of markets has significant impact on economic variables; especially the downward trend during crisis. Overall addition of Real Estate Investment Trust in stocks portfolio reduces risks and provide better diversification benefit. Results varied depending upon the circumstances of the country. REITs provides better diversification benefits for Islamic Stocks, when both markets are bearish and can provide hedging benefit for conventional stocks portfolio.

Keywords: conventional stocks, real estate investment trust, copula, diversification, risk spillover, safe heaven

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: P. C. Tewari, Rajiv Kumar, Dinesh Khanduja

Abstract:

This paper discusses the performance modeling and availability analysis of Yarn Dyeing System of a Textile Industry. The Textile Industry is a complex and repairable engineering system. Yarn Dyeing System of Textile Industry consists of five subsystems arranged in series configuration. For performance modeling and analysis of availability, a performance evaluating model has been developed with the help of mathematical formulation based on Markov-Birth-Death Process. The differential equations have been developed on the basis of Probabilistic Approach using a Transition Diagram. These equations have further been solved using normalizing condition in order to develop the steady state availability, a performance measure of the system concerned. The system performance has been further analyzed with the help of decision matrices. These matrices provide various availability levels for different combinations of failure and repair rates for various subsystems. The findings of this paper are, therefore, considered to be useful for the analysis of availability and determination of the best possible maintenance strategies which can be implemented in future to enhance the system performance.

Keywords: performance modeling, markov process, steady state availability, availability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Suparman Suparman

Abstract:

A white noise in autoregressive (AR) model is often assumed to be normally distributed. In application, the white noise usually do not follows a normal distribution. This paper aims to estimate a parameter of AR model that has a exponential white noise. A Bayesian method is adopted. A prior distribution of the parameter of AR model is selected and then this prior distribution is combined with a likelihood function of data to get a posterior distribution. Based on this posterior distribution, a Bayesian estimator for the parameter of AR model is estimated. Because the order of AR model is considered a parameter, this Bayesian estimator cannot be explicitly calculated. To resolve this problem, a method of reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is adopted. A result is a estimation of the parameter AR model can be simultaneously calculated.

Keywords: autoregressive (AR) model, exponential white Noise, bayesian, reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Gabriel Woldu, Maria Sassi

Abstract:

Coffee performs a pivotal role in Ethiopia's GDP, revenue, employment, domestic demand, and export earnings. Ethiopia's coffee production and exports show high variability in the amount of production and export earnings. Despite being the continent's fifth-largest coffee producer, Ethiopia has not developed its ability to shine as a major exporter in the globe's green coffee exports. Ethiopian coffee exports were not stable and had high volume and earnings fluctuations. The main aim of this study was to analyze the dynamics of the export of coffee variation to different importing nations using a first-order Markov Chain model. 14 years of time-series data has been used to examine the direction and structural change in the export of coffee. A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was used to determine the annual growth rate in the coffee export quantity, value, and per-unit price over the study period. The major export markets for Ethiopian coffee were Germany, Japan, and the USA, which were more stable, while countries such as France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia were less stable and had low retention rates for Ethiopian coffee. The study, therefore, recommends that Ethiopia should again revitalize its market to France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia, as these countries are the major coffee-consuming countries in the world to boost its export stake to the global coffee markets in the future. In order to further enhance export stability, the Ethiopian Government and other stakeholders in the coffee sector should have to work on reducing the volatility of coffee output and exports in order to improve production and quality efficiency, so that stabilize markets as well as to make the product attractive and price competitive in the importing countries.

Keywords: coffee, CAGR, Markov chain, direction of trade, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: M. Bougamouza, M. Bouhadef, T. Zitoun

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to examine, through experimentation in the laboratory, the supercritical flow in the presence of an obstacle in a rectangular channel. The supercritical regime in the whole hydraulic channel is achieved by adding a convergent. We will observe the influence of the obstacle shape and dimension on the characteristics of the supercritical flow, mainly the free-surface elevation and the velocity profile. The velocity measurements have been conducted with the one dimension laser anemometry technique.

Keywords: experiments, free-surface flow, hydraulic channel, uneven bottom, laser anemometry, supercritical regime

Procedia PDF Downloads 223

Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis, G. B. Akram Khaleghei

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a maintenance model of a two-unit series system with economic dependence. Unit#1, which is considered to be more expensive and more important, is subject to condition monitoring (CM) at equidistant, discrete time epochs and unit#2, which is not subject to CM, has a general lifetime distribution. The multivariate observation vectors obtained through condition monitoring carry partial information about the hidden state of unit#1, which can be in a healthy or a warning state while operating. Only the failure state is assumed to be observable for both units. The objective is to find an optimal opportunistic maintenance policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the partially observable semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm for finding the optimal policy and the minimum average cost is developed and illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, semi-Markov decision process, multivariate Bayesian control chart, partially observable system, two-unit system

Procedia PDF Downloads 436

Authors: Musaab Salman Sultan

Abstract:

The surface and bulk magnetization behavior of template released isolated ferromagnetic Ni₆₀Fe₄₀ nanowires of relatively thick diameters (~200 nm), deposited from a dilute suspension onto pre-patterned insulating chips have been investigated experimentally, using a highly sensitive Magneto-Optical Ker Effect (MOKE) magnetometry and Magneto-Resistance (MR) measurements, respectively. The MR data were consistent with the theoretical predictions of the anisotropic magneto-resistance (AMR) effect. The MR measurements, in all the angles of investigations, showed large features and a series of nonmonotonic "continuous small features" in the resistance profiles. The extracted switching fields from these features and from MOKE loops were compared with each other and with the switching fields reported in the literature that adopted the same analytical techniques on the similar compositions and dimensions of nanowires. A large difference between MOKE and MR measurments was noticed. The disparate between MOKE and MR results is attributed to the variance in the micro-magnetic structure of the surface and the bulk of such ferromagnetic nanowires. This result was ascertained using micro-magnetic simulations on an individual: cylindrical and rectangular cross sections NiFe nanowires, with the same diameter/thickness of the experimental wires, using the Object Oriented Micro-magnetic Framework (OOMMF) package where the simulated loops showed different switching events, indicating that such wires have different magnetic states in the reversal process and the micro-magnetic spin structures during switching behavior was complicated. These results further supported the difference between surface and bulk magnetization behavior in these nanowires. This work suggests that a combination of MOKE and MR measurements is required to fully understand the magnetization behavior of such relatively thick isolated cylindrical ferromagnetic nanowires.

Keywords: MOKE magnetometry, MR measurements, OOMMF package, micromagnetic simulations, ferromagnetic nanowires, surface magnetic properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 215

Authors: J. Hrabovský, M. Chabičovský, J. Horský

Abstract:

Water spray cooling is a technique typically used in heat treatment and other metallurgical processes where controlled temperature regimes are required. Water spray cooling is used in static (without movement) or dynamic (with movement of the steel plate) regimes. The static regime is notable for the fixed position of the hot steel plate and fixed spray nozzle. This regime is typical for quenching systems focused on heat treatment of the steel plate. The second application of spray cooling is the dynamic regime. The dynamic regime is notable for its static section cooling system and moving steel plate. This regime is used in rolling and finishing mills. The fixed position of cooling sections with nozzles and the movement of the steel plate produce nonhomogeneous water distribution on the steel plate. The length of cooling sections and placement of water nozzles in combination with the nonhomogeneity of water distribution leads to discontinued or interrupted cooling conditions. The impact of static and dynamic regimes on cooling intensity and the heat transfer coefficient during the cooling process of steel plates is an important issue. Heat treatment of steel is accompanied by oxide scale growth. The oxide scale layers can significantly modify the cooling properties and intensity during the cooling. The combination of the static and dynamic (section) regimes with the variable thickness of the oxide scale layer on the steel surface impact the final cooling intensity. The study of the influence of the oxide scale layers with different cooling regimes was carried out using experimental measurements and numerical analysis. The experimental measurements compared both types of cooling regimes and the cooling of scale-free surfaces and oxidized surfaces. A numerical analysis was prepared to simulate the cooling process with different conditions of the section and samples with different oxide scale layers.

Keywords: heat transfer coefficient, numerical analysis, oxide layer, spray cooling

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: Leili Nekounazar

Abstract:

Since 2009, when the Green movement, Iran’s most significant political uprising in post-Islamic revolution materialized, the term 'soft war' has become an integral part of the Iranian regime’s lexicon when addressing the media propaganda waged by the west and the regime’s so-called 'enemies'. Iran’s authorities describe soft war as a western campaign aiming at undermining the revolutionary values by covert activities, deploying cultural tools and purposeful dissemination of information. With this respect, Internet and in particular, the social media networks, and oppositional radio-television broadcasts have been considered as the west’s soft war conduits. With the rising of the underground fashion industry in the past couple of years that does not conform to the compulsory dress codes prescribed by the state, the Islamic regime expands the soft war narrative to include any undesired fashion-related activities and frames the rising fashion industry as a cultural war intoxicating the Iranian-Islamic identity. Accordingly, fashion products created by the Iranian fashion intermediators have been attributed to the westerners and outsiders and are regarded as the matter of national security. This study examines the reactive and proactive measures deployed by the Iranian regime to control the rise of fashion industry. It further puts under the scrutiny how the state as a part of its proactive measure shapes the narrative of 'soft war' in relation to fashion in Iran and explores how the notion of soft war has been articulated in relation to the modeling and fashion in the state’s political rhetoric. Through conducting a content analysis of the authorities’ statements, it describes how the narrative of soft war assists the state policing the fashion industry.

Keywords: censorship, fashion, Iran, soft war

Procedia PDF Downloads 321