Search results for: Libyan oil and gas scenario

Authors: Ravi Nandu, Anmol Taploo

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As per current scenario, commercial aircrafts have been very well functioning with higher efficiency, but there is something that affects it. Every aircraft runs with the combustion produced by mixture of fuel and air. For example: A flight to travel from Mumbai to Kolkata it takes 2h: 30 min and from Kolkata to Mumbai it takes 2h: 45 min. It happens due to head and tail wind. Due to head wind air craft travels faster than its usual velocity and it takes 2h: 30 min to reach to Kolkata, while it takes 2h;45min vis versa. This lag in time is caused due to head wind that increases the drag and reduces the relative velocity of the plane. So in order to reduce this wastage of fuel there is an optimal flight altitude at which the head and tail wind action is reduced compared to the present scenario.

Keywords: drag, head wind, tail wind, aircraft

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Authors: Sinisa J. Vukicevic

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Edmonton is currently one of the youngest North American cities and has achieved significant growth over the past 40 years. Strong urban shift requires a new approach to how the city is envisioned, planned, and built. This approach is evidence-based scenario development, and an urban growth model was a key support tool in framing Edmonton development strategies, developing urban policies, and assessing policy implications. The urban growth model has been developed using the Metronamica software platform. The Metronamica land use model evaluated the dynamic of land use change under the influence of key development drivers (population and employment), zoning, land suitability, and land and activity accessibility. The model was designed following the Big City Moves ideas: become greener as we grow, develop a rebuildable city, ignite a community of communities, foster a healing city, and create a city of convergence. The Big City Moves were converted to three development scenarios: ‘Strong Central City’, ‘Node City’, and ‘Corridor City’. Each scenario has a narrative story that expressed scenario’s high level goal, scenario’s approach to residential and commercial activities, to transportation vision, and employment and environmental principles. Land use demand was calculated for each scenario according to specific density targets. Spatial policies were analyzed according to their level of importance within the policy set definition for the specific scenario, but also through the policy measures. The model was calibrated on the way to reproduce known historical land use pattern. For the calibration, we used 2006 and 2011 land use data. The validation is done independently, which means we used the data we did not use for the calibration. The model was validated with 2016 data. In general, the modeling process contain three main phases: ‘from qualitative storyline to quantitative modelling’, ‘model development and model run’, and ‘from quantitative modelling to qualitative storyline’. The model also incorporates five spatial indicators: distance from residential to work, distance from residential to recreation, distance to river valley, urban expansion and habitat fragmentation. The major finding of this research could be looked at from two perspectives: the planning perspective and technology perspective. The planning perspective evaluates the model as a tool for scenario development. Using the model, we explored the land use dynamic that is influenced by a different set of policies. The model enables a direct comparison between the three scenarios. We explored the similarities and differences of scenarios and their quantitative indicators: land use change, population change (and spatial allocation), job allocation, density (population, employment, and dwelling unit), habitat connectivity, proximity to objects of interest, etc. From the technology perspective, the model showed one very important characteristic: the model flexibility. The direction for policy testing changed many times during the consultation process and model flexibility in applying all these changes was highly appreciated. The model satisfied our needs as scenario development and evaluation tool, but also as a communication tool during the consultation process.

Keywords: urban growth model, scenario development, spatial indicators, Metronamica

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Authors: Edgard Gnansounoua, Pavel Vaskan, Elia Ruiz Pachón

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This work addresses the economic and environmental performance of integrated biorefineries based on sugarcane juice and residues in the context of Brazil. We have considered four multiproduct scenarios; two from existing Brazilian sugar mills and the others from ethanol autonomous distilleries. They are integrated biorefineries producing first (1G) and second (2G) generation ethanol, sugar, molasses (for animal feed) and electricity. We show the results for the analysis and comparison of the different scenarios using a techno-economic value-based approach and LCA methodology. We have found that all the analysed scenarios show positive values of Climate change and Fossil depletion reduction as compared to the reference systems. However the scenario producing only ethanol shows less efficiency in Human toxicity, Freshwater ecotoxicity and Freshwater eutrophication impacts. The best economic configuration is provided by the scenario with the largest ethanol production. On the other hand, the best environmental performance is presented by the scenario with full integration sugar – 1G2G ethanol production. The integration of 2G based residues in a 1G ethanol production plant leads to positive environmental impacts compared to the conventional 1G industrial plant but proves to be more expensive.

Keywords: sugarcane, biorefinery, 1G/2G bioethanol integration, LCA, Brazil

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Authors: J. S. Savier

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Real power is the component power which is converted into useful energy whereas reactive power is the component of power which cannot be converted to useful energy but it is required for the magnetization of various electrical machineries. If the reactive power is compensated at the consumer end, the need for reactive power flow from generators to the load can be avoided and hence the overall power loss can be reduced. In this scenario, this paper presents a succinct method called JSS method for allocation of reactive power losses to consumers connected to radial distribution networks in a deregulated environment. The proposed method has the advantage that no assumptions are made while deriving the reactive power loss allocation method.

Keywords: deregulation, reactive power loss allocation, radial distribution systems, succinct method

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Authors: Itissam Abuiziah

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This work presents a case study of water-hammer analysis and control for the Oum Azza pumping station project in the coastal area of Rabat to Casablanca from the dam Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah (SMBA). This is a typical pumping system with a long penstock and is currently at design and executions stages. Since there is no ideal location for construction of protection devices, the protection devices were provisionally designed to protect the whole conveying pipeline. The simulation results for the transient conditions caused by a sudden pumping stopping without including any protection devices, show that there is a negative beyond 1300m to the station 5725m near the arrival of the reservoir, therefore; there is a need for the protection devices to protect the conveying pipeline. To achieve the goal behind the transient flow analysis which is to protect the conveying pipeline system, four scenarios had been investigated in this case study with two types of protecting devices (pressure relief valve and desurging tank with automatic air control). The four scenarios are conceders as with pressure relief valve, with pressure relief valve and a desurging tank with automatic air control, with pressure relief valve and tow desurging tanks with automatic air control and with pressure relief valve and three desurging tanks with automatic air control. The simulation result for the first scenario shows that overpressure corresponding to an instant pumping stopping is reduced from 263m to 240m, and the minimum hydraulic grad line for the length approximately from station 1300m to station 5725m is still below the pipeline profile which means that the pipe must be equipped with another a protective devices for smoothing depressions. The simulation results for the second scenario show that the minimum and maximum pressures envelopes are decreases especially in the depression phase but not effectively protects the conduct in this case study. The minimum pressure increased from -77.7m for the previous scenario to -65.9m for the current scenario. Therefore the pipeline is still requiring additional protective devices; another desurging tank with automatic air control is installed at station2575.84m. The simulation results for the third scenario show that the minimum and maximum pressures envelopes are decreases but not effectively protects the conduct in this case study since the depression is still exist and varies from -0.6m to– 12m. Therefore the pipeline is still requiring additional protective devices; another desurging tank with automatic air control is installed at station 5670.32 m. Examination of the envelope curves of the minimum pressuresresults for the fourth scenario, we noticed that the piezometric pressure along the pipe remains positive over the entire length of the pipe. We can, therefore, conclude that such scenario can provide effective protection for the pipeline.

Keywords: analysis methods, protection devices, transient flow, water hammer

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Authors: Hooman Fallah

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Vast amounts of world oil reservoirs are in natural fractured reservoirs. There are different methods for increasing recovery from fractured reservoirs. Miscible injection of water alternating CO2 is a good choice among this methods. In this method, water and CO2 slugs are injected alternatively in reservoir as miscible agent into reservoir. This paper studies water injection scenario and miscible injection of water and CO2 in a two dimensional, inhomogeneous fractured reservoir. The results show that miscible water alternating CO2¬ gas injection leads to 3.95% increase in final oil recovery and total water production decrease of 3.89% comparing to water injection scenario.

Keywords: simulation study, CO2, water alternating gas injection, fractured reservoirs

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Authors: Jaehyung Jung, Kiman Kim, Heesang Eum

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Solar cell is one of the main technologies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG). Thereby, accurate estimation of greenhouse gas reduction by solar cell technology is crucial to consider strategic applications of the solar cell. The bottom-up approach using operating data such as operation time and efficiency is one of the methodologies to improve the accuracy of the estimation. In this study, alternative GHG reductions from solar cell technology were estimated by a bottom-up approach to indirect emission source (scope 2) in Korea, 2015. In addition, the scenario-based analysis was conducted to assess the effect of technological change with respect to efficiency improvement and rate of operation. In order to estimate GHG reductions from solar cell activities in operating condition levels, methodologies were derived from 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories and guidelines for local government greenhouse inventories published in Korea, 2016. Indirect emission factors for electricity were obtained from Korea Power Exchange (KPX) in 2011. As a result, the annual alternative GHG reductions were estimated as 21,504 tonCO2eq, and the annual average value was 1,536 tonCO2eq per each solar cell technology. Those results of estimation showed to be 91% levels versus design of capacity. Estimation of individual greenhouse gases (GHGs) showed that the largest gas was carbon dioxide (CO2), of which up to 99% of the total individual greenhouse gases. The annual average GHG reductions from solar cell per year and unit installed capacity (MW) were estimated as 556 tonCO2eq/yr•MW. Scenario analysis of efficiency improvement by 5%, 10%, 15% increased as much as approximately 30, 61, 91%, respectively, and rate of operation as 100% increased 4% of the annual GHG reductions.

Keywords: bottom-up approach, greenhouse gas (GHG), reduction, scenario, solar cell

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Authors: Subhayan Maity

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Complete scenario of cosmic evolution from emergent phase to late time acceleration (i.e. non-singular ever expanding Universe) is a popular preference in the recent cosmology. Yet one can’t exclude the idea that other type of evolution pattern of the Universe may also be possible. Especially, the bouncing scenario is becoming a matter of interest now a days. The present work is an exhibition of such a different pattern of cosmic evolution where the evolution of Universe has been shown as a cyclic thermodynamic process. Under diffusion mechanism (non-equilibrium thermodynamic process), the cosmic evolution has been modelled as [ emergent - accelerated expansion - decelerated expansion - decelerated contraction - accelerated contraction - emergent] .

Keywords: non-equilibrium thermodynamics, non singular evolution of universe, cyclic evolution, diffusive fluid

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Authors: Kimuli Ismail, Michael Lubwama, John Baptist Kirabira, Adam Sebbit

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This study develops 4 energy scenarios for Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA). GKMA is Uganda’s capital with a population of 4.1million and a GDP growth rate of 5.8 with a nonsustainable energy management system. The study uses TIMES-VEDA to examine the energy impacts of business as usual (BAU), Kabejja, Carbon-Tax, and Lutta scenarios in commercial, industrial, transportation, residential, agricultural, and electricity generation activities. BAU is the baseline scenario with limited CO2 emissions restrictions against which Kabejja with 20% CO2 emissions restriction, a carbon tax of $100/ton imposed in 2050 for Carbon-Tax scenario, and Lutta with 95% CO2 emissions restriction is made. The analysis suggests that if the current policy trends continue as BAU, consumption would increase from 139.6PJ to 497.42PJ and CO2 emissions will increase from 4.6mtns to 7mtns. However, consumption would decrease by 2.3% in Kabejja, 3.4% in Carbon-Tax, and 3.3 % in Lutta compared to BAU. The CO2 emissions would decrease by 8.57% in Kabejja, 55.14% in Carbon-Tax, and 60% in Lutta compared to BAU. Sustainability is achievable when low-carbon electricity is increased by 53.68% in the EMS, and setting up an electrified Kampala metro. The study recommends Lutta as the sustainable pathway to a lowcarbon 2050.

Keywords: Sustainability, Scenario Plannnig, Times-Veda Modelling, Energy Policy Development

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Authors: Elham A. Kwildi, Yahia S. Abugnah, Nuri S. Madi

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This study was designed to evaluate the microbiological quality and safety of two types of salads prepared at a catering center affiliated with Libyan Airlines in Tripoli, Libya. Two hundred and twenty-one (221) samples (132 economy-class and 89 first- class) were used in this project which lasted for ten months. Biweekly, microbiological tests were performed which included total plate count (TPC) and total coliforms (TCF), in addition to enumeration and/or detection of some pathogenic bacteria mainly Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus cereus, Salmonella sp, Listeria sp and Vibrio parahaemolyticus parahaemolyticus, By using conventional as well as compact dry methods. Results indicated that TPC of type 1 salad ranged between (<10 – 62 x 103 cfu/gm) and (<10 to 36 x103 cfu/g), while TCF were (<10 – 41 x 103 cfu/gm) and (< 10 to 66 x102 cfu/g) using both methods of detection respectively. On the other hand, TPC of type 2 salad were: (1 × 10 – 52 x 103) and (<10 – 55 x 103 cfu/gm) and in the range of (1 x10 to 45x103 cfu/g), and the (TCF) counts were between (< 10 to 55x103 cfu/g) and (< 10 to 34 x103 cfu/g) using the 1st and the 2nd methods of detection respectively. Also, the pathogens mentioned above were detected in both types of salads, but their levels varied according to the type of salad and the method of detection. The level of Staphylococcus aureus, for instance, was 17.4% using conventional method versus 14.4% using the compact dry method. Similarly, E. coli was 7.6% and 9.8%, while Salmonella sp. recorded the least percentage i.e. 3% and 3.8% with the two mentioned methods respectively. First class salads were also found to contain the same pathogens, but the level of E. coli was relatively higher in this case (14.6% and 16.9%) using conventional and compact dry methods respectively. The second rank came Staphylococcus aureus (13.5%) and (11.2%), followed by Salmonella (6.74%) and 6.70%). The least percentage was for Vibrio parahaemolyticus (4.9%) which was detected in the first class salads only. The other two pathogens Bacillus cereus and Listeria sp. were not detected in either one of the salads. Finally, it is worth mentioning that there was a significant decline in TPC and TCF counts in addition to the disappearance of pathogenic bacteria after the 6-7th month of the study which coincided with the first trial of the HACCP system at the center. The ups and downs in the counts along the early stages of the study reveal that there is a need for some important correction measures including more emphasis on training of the personnel in applying the HACCP system effectively.

Keywords: air travel, vegetable salads, foodborne outbreaks, Libya

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Authors: Mohamed Abolgasem Arteimi, Ahlam Al-Tajori

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This paper describes an ongoing project at the Libyan Academy. The project aims to build digital library for thesis and dissertations (ETD). The researchers developed a system based on Greenstone open source systems for building ETD digital library. A metadata for theses and dissertations was developed. The paper addresses issues related to project design, development and user satisfaction. Conclusions highlighted some important lessons learned to date.

Keywords: digital library, electronic theses and dissertations, open access, ETD, metadata

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Authors: Tung-Kuang Wu, Hsing-Pei Hsieh, Ying-Ru Meng

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Special Education in Taiwan has been facing difficulties including shortage of teachers and lack in resources. Some students need to receive special education are thus not identified or admitted. Fortunately, information technologies can be applied to relieve some of the difficulties. For example, on-line multimedia courseware can be used to assist the learning of special education students and take pretty much workload from special education teachers. However, there may exist cognitive variations between students in special or regular educations, which suggests the design of online courseware requires different considerations. This study aims to investigate the difference in focus of attention (FOA) between special and regular education students of primary school in viewing the computer screen. The study is essential as it helps courseware developers in determining where to put learning elements that matter the most on the right position of screen. It may also assist special education specialists to better understand the subtle differences among various subtypes of learning disabilities. This study involves 76 special education students (among them, 39 are students with mental retardation, MR, and 37 are students with learning disabilities, LDs) and 42 regular education students. The participants were asked to view a computer screen showing a picture partitioned into 3 × 3 areas with each area filled with text or icon. The subjects were then instructed to mark on the prior given paper sheets, which are also partitioned into 3 × 3 grids, the areas corresponding to the pictures on the computer screen that they first set their eyes on. The data are then collected and analyzed. Major findings are listed: 1. In both text and icon scenario, significant differences exist in the first preferred FOA between special and regular education students. The first FOA for the former is mainly on area 1 (upper left area, 53.8% / 51.3% for MR / LDs students in text scenario; and 53.8% / 56.8% for MR / LDs students in icons scenario), while the latter on area 5 (middle area, 50.0% and 57.1% in text and icons scenarios). 2. The second most preferred area in text scenario for students with MR and LDs are area 2 (upper-middle, 20.5%) and 5 (middle area, 24.3%). In icons scenario, the results are similar, but lesser in percentage. 3. Students with LDs that show similar preference (either in text or icons scenarios) in FOA to regular education students tend to be of some specific sub-type of learning disabilities. For instance, students with LDs that chose area 5 (middle area, either in text or icon scenario) as their FOA are mostly ones that have reading or writing disability. Also, three (out of 13) subjects in this category, after going through the rediagnosis process, were excluded from being learning disabilities. In summary, the findings suggest when designing multimedia courseware for students with MR and LDs, the essential learning elements should be placed on area 1, 2 and 5. In addition, FOV preference may also potentially be used as an indicator for diagnosing students with LDs.

Keywords: focus of attention, learning disabilities, mental retardation, on-line multimedia courseware, special education

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Authors: Petra Gergelova, Sofia Ioannidou, Davide Arcella, Alexandra Tard, Polly E. Boon, Oliver Lindtner, Christina Tlustos, Jean-Charles Leblanc

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Objectives: To assess chronic dietary exposure to food additives in different European countries and population groups. Method and Design: The European Food Safety Authority’s (EFSA) Panel on Food Additives and Nutrient Sources added to Food (ANS) estimates chronic dietary exposure to food additives with the purpose of re-evaluating food additives that were previously authorized in Europe. For this, EFSA uses concentration values (usage and/or analytical occurrence data) reported through regular public calls for data by food industry and European countries. These are combined, at individual level, with national food consumption data from the EFSA Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database including data from 33 dietary surveys from 19 European countries and considering six different population groups (infants, toddlers, children, adolescents, adults and the elderly). EFSA ANS Panel estimates dietary exposure for each individual in the EFSA Comprehensive Database by combining the occurrence levels per food group with their corresponding consumption amount per kg body weight. An individual average exposure per day is calculated, resulting in distributions of individual exposures per survey and population group. Based on these distributions, the average and 95th percentile of exposure is calculated per survey and per population group. Dietary exposure is assessed based on two different sets of data: (a) Maximum permitted levels (MPLs) of use set down in the EU legislation (defined as regulatory maximum level exposure assessment scenario) and (b) usage levels and/or analytical occurrence data (defined as refined exposure assessment scenario). The refined exposure assessment scenario is sub-divided into the brand-loyal consumer scenario and the non-brand-loyal consumer scenario. For the brand-loyal consumer scenario, the consumer is considered to be exposed on long-term basis to the highest reported usage/analytical level for one food group, and at the mean level for the remaining food groups. For the non-brand-loyal consumer scenario, the consumer is considered to be exposed on long-term basis to the mean reported usage/analytical level for all food groups. An additional exposure from sources other than direct addition of food additives (i.e. natural presence, contaminants, and carriers of food additives) is also estimated, as appropriate. Results: Since 2014, this methodology has been applied in about 30 food additive exposure assessments conducted as part of scientific opinions of the EFSA ANS Panel. For example, under the non-brand-loyal scenario, the highest 95th percentile of exposure to α-tocopherol (E 307) and ammonium phosphatides (E 442) was estimated in toddlers up to 5.9 and 8.7 mg/kg body weight/day, respectively. The same estimates under the brand-loyal scenario in toddlers resulted in exposures of 8.1 and 20.7 mg/kg body weight/day, respectively. For the regulatory maximum level exposure assessment scenario, the highest 95th percentile of exposure to α-tocopherol (E 307) and ammonium phosphatides (E 442) was estimated in toddlers up to 11.9 and 30.3 mg/kg body weight/day, respectively. Conclusions: Detailed and up-to-date information on food additive concentration values (usage and/or analytical occurrence data) and food consumption data enable the assessment of chronic dietary exposure to food additives to more realistic levels.

Keywords: α-tocopherol, ammonium phosphatides, dietary exposure assessment, European Food Safety Authority, food additives, food consumption data

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Authors: Savita Tangwongkit, Chittur S Srinivasan, Philip J. Jones

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Thailand has become the world’s fourth largest sugarcane producer and second largest sugar exporter. While there have been a number of drivers of this growth, the primary driver has been wide-ranging government support measures. Recently, the Thai government has emphasized the need for policy reform as part of a broader industry restructuring to bring the sector up-to-date with the current and future developments in the international sugar market. Because of the sectors historical dependence on government support, any such reform is likely to have a very significant impact on the fortunes of Thai cane farmers. This study explores the impact of three policy scenarios, representing a spectrum of policy approaches, on Thai cane producers. These reform scenarios were designed in consultation with policy makers and academics working in the cane sector. Scenario 1 captures the current ‘government proposal’ for policy reform. This scenario removes certain domestic production subsidies but seeks to maintain as much support as is permissible under current WTO rules. The second scenario, ‘protectionism’, maintains the current internal market producer supports, but otherwise complies with international (WTO) commitments. Third, the ‘libertarian scenario’ removes all production support and market interventions, trade and domestic consumption distortions. Most important driver of producer behaviour in all of the scenarios is the producer price of cane. Cane price is obviously highest under the protectionism scenario, followed by government proposal and libertarian scenarios, respectively. Likely producer responses to these three policy scenarios was determined by means of a large-scale survey of cane farmers. The sample was stratified by size group and quotas filled by size group and region. One scenario was presented to each of three sub-samples, consisting of approx.150 farmers. Total sample size was 462 farms. Data was collected by face-to-face interview between June and August 2019. There was a marked difference in farmer response to the three scenarios. Farmers in the ‘Protectionism’ scenario, which maintains the highest cane price and those who farm larger cane areas are more likely to continue cane farming. The libertarian scenario is likely to result in the greatest losses in terms of cane production volume broadly double that of the ‘protectionism’ scenario, primarily due to farmers quitting cane production altogether. Over half of loss cane production volume comes from medium-size farm, i.e. the largest and smallest producers are the most resilient. This result is likely due to the fact that the medium size group are large enough to require hired labour but lack the economies of scale of the largest farms. Over all size groups the farms most heavily specialized in cane production, i.e. those devoting 26-50% of arable land to cane, are also the most vulnerable, with 70% of all farmers quitting cane production coming from this group. This investigation suggests that cane price is the most significant determinant of farmer behaviour. Also, that where scenarios drive significantly lower cane price, policy makers should target support towards mid-sized producers, with policies that encourage efficiency gains and diversification into alternative agricultural crops.

Keywords: farmer intentions, farm survey, policy reform, Thai cane production

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Authors: Sandra Rafael, Bruno Vicente, Vera Rodrigues, Carlos Borrego, Myriam Lopes

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Air pollution is an environmental and social issue at different spatial scales, especially in a climate change context, with an expected decrease of air quality. Air pollution is a combination of high emissions and unfavourable weather conditions, where wind speed and wind direction play a key role. The urban design (location and structure of buildings and trees) can both promote the air pollutants dispersion as well as promote their retention within the urban area. Today, most of the urban areas are applying measures to adapt to future extreme climatic events. Most of these measures are grounded on nature-based solutions, namely green roofs and green areas. In this sense, studies are required to evaluate how the implementation of these actions will influence the wind flow within the urban area and, consequently, how this will influence air pollutants' dispersion. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the influence of a set of urban morphologies in the wind conditions and in the dispersion of air pollutants, in a built-up area in Portugal. For that, two pollutants were analysed (NOx and PM10) and four scenarios were developed: i) a baseline scenario, which characterizes the current status of the study area, ii) an urban green scenario, which implies the implementation of a green area inside the domain, iii) a green roof scenario, which consists in the implementation of green roofs in a specific area of the domain; iv) a 'grey' scenario, which consists in a scenario with absence of vegetation. For that, two models were used, namely the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the CFD model VADIS (pollutant dispersion in the atmosphere under variable wind conditions). The WRF model was used to initialize the CFD model, while the last was used to perform the set of numerical simulations, on an hourly basis. The implementation of the green urban area promoted a reduction of air pollutants' concentrations, 16% on average, related to the increase in the wind flow, which promotes air pollutants dispersion; while the application of green roofs showed an increase of concentrations (reaching 60% during specific time periods). Overall the results showed that a strategic placement of vegetation in cities has the potential to make an important contribution to increase air pollutants dispersion and so promote the improvement of air quality and sustainability of urban environments.

Keywords: air pollutants dispersion, wind conditions, urban morphologies, road traffic emissions

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Authors: Koryukaeva Ksenia, Jinfeng Sun

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Europe has been a traditional importer of Russian natural gas for more than 50 years. In 2021, Russian state-owned company Gazprom supplied about a third of all gas consumed in Europe. The Russia-Europe mutual dependence in terms of natural gas supplies has been causing many concerns about the energy security of the two sides for a long period of time. These days the issue has become more urgent than ever considering recent Russian invasion in Ukraine followed by increased large-scale geopolitical conflicts, making the future of Russian natural gas supplies and global gas markets as well highly uncertain. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to get insight into the possible futures of Russian pipeline natural gas exports by a scenario planning method based on Monte-Carlo simulation within LUSS model framework, and propose Russian pipeline natural gas export strategies based on the obtained scenario planning results. The scenario analysis revealed that recent geopolitical disputes disturbed the traditional, longstanding model of Russian pipeline gas exports, and, as a result, the prospects and the pathways for Russian pipeline gas on the world markets will differ significantly from those before 2022. Specifically, our main findings show, that (i) the events of 2022 generated many uncertainties for the long-term future of Russian pipeline gas export perspectives on both western and eastern supply directions, including geopolitical, regulatory, economic, infrastructure and other uncertainties; (ii) according to scenario modelling results, Russian pipeline exports will face many challenges in the future, both on western and eastern directions. A decrease in pipeline gas exports will inevitably affect country’s natural gas production and significantly reduce fossil fuel export revenues, jeopardizing the energy security of the country; (iii) according to proposed strategies, in order to ensure the long-term stable export supplies in the changing environment, Russia may need to adjust its traditional export strategy by performing export flows and product diversification, entering new markets, adapting its contracting mechanism, increasing competitiveness and gaining a reputation of a reliable gas supplier.

Keywords: Russian natural gas, Pipeline natural gas, Uncertainty, Scenario simulation, Export strategy

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Authors: I. P. Singh, Ajesh Kumar Kapoor

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Rapid globalization have led to a change towards massive uncontrolled urbanization. Whereas during initial years negligence was there in the name of development, growth and vision toward healthier and better tomorrow. Considering the scenario of developing nations (India) where 70% of their population is living on 30% (urban areas) of their total land available. The need of an hour is to consider the ethical values of each and every person living in urban fringes, whereby the sustainable urban development is promoted which encompasses the move toward low carbon developments. It would help reviving a city lung space and reducing carbon credits as per Kyoto Protocol 1991. This paper would provide an overview about Indian scenario of current urban areas, ongoing developments, series of regulatory policy measures, materials innovative use and policies framed and opted for low carbon development.

Keywords: urban sustainability, indicators for sustainable development, low carbon development, Indian Policies toward low carbon development

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Authors: Utkrash Sarkar, Vineet Tiwari, Shailendra Singh

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The development of social media has brought about a tremendous change in the marketing scenario for every industry. It has become a new hybrid element of the promotional mix in the marketing segment. This paper tries to show some light on the fact that in today’s scenario social media is a platform that everyone should take in consideration for any type of marketing campaign. In this paper, we have formulated a questionnaire, and through it, we have tried to gather information from the respondents that how social media is influencing their decision when they choose their travel destinations for tourism purpose, does it help in creating any awareness about places which they don’t have an idea? As a result, guiding the state government and providing them with a marketing strategy that how they can use social media in a better manner so that they could help increase their revenue and can make people aware about the places of the state which the target audience can plan to go for their next vacation.

Keywords: social media, marketing, information, decision making

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Authors: Martha Serrano-Arias, Martha Frías-Armenta

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Significant results have been found both supporting universality of emotion recognition and cultural background influence. Thus, the aim of this research was to test a Mexican version of the MTSI in different cultures to find differences in their performance. The MTSI-Mx assesses through a scenario approach were subjects must evaluate real persons. Two target persons were used for the construction, a man (FS) and a woman (AD). The items were grouped in four variables: Picture, Video, and FS and AD scenarios. The test was applied to 201 students from Mexico and Germany. T-test for picture and FS scenario show no significance. Video and AD had a significance at the 5% level. Results show slight differences between cultures, although a more comprehensive research is needed to conclude which culture can perform better in this kind of assessments.

Keywords: emotion recognition, MTSI, social intelligence, transcultural study

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Authors: Aparna Bhat, Rajeshwari Hegde

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Renewable energy sources also called non-conventional energy sources that are continuously replenished by natural processes. For example, solar energy, wind energy, bio-energy- bio-fuels grown sustain ably), hydropower etc., are some of the examples of renewable energy sources. A renewable energy system converts the energy found in sunlight, wind, falling-water, sea-waves, geothermal heat, or biomass into a form, we can use such as heat or electricity. Most of the renewable energy comes either directly or indirectly from sun and wind and can never be exhausted, and therefore they are called renewable. This paper presents a review about conventional and renewable energy scenario of India. The paper also presents current status, major achievements and future aspects of renewable energy in India and implementing renewable for the future is also been presented.

Keywords: solar energy, renewabe energy, wind energy, bio-diesel, biomass, feedin

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Authors: Ayalkibet Mekonnen, Adane Abebe

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In hydrological cycle there are many water-related human interventions that modify the natural systems. Rainwater harvesting is one such intervention that involves harnessing of water in the upstream. Water harvesting used in upstream prevents water runoff on downstream mainly disturbance on biodiversity and ecosystems. The main objectives of the study are to assess the effects of water harvesting technologies on downstream water availability in the Woreda. To address the above problem, SWAT model, cost-benefit ratio and optimal control approach was used to analyse the hydrological and socioeconomic impact and tradeoffs on water availability of the community, respectively. The downstream impacts of increasing water consumption in the upstream rain-fed areas of the Bilate and Shala Catchment are simulated using the semi-distributed SWAT model. The two land use scenarios tested at sub basin levels (1) conventional land use represents the current land use practice (Agri-CON) and (2) in-field rainwater harvesting (IRWH), improving soil water availability through rainwater harvesting land use scenario. The simulated water balance results showed that the highest peak mean monthly direct flow obtained from Agri-CON land use (127.1 m3/ha), followed by Agri-IRWH land use (11.5 mm) and LULC 2005 (90.1 m3/ha). The Agri-IRWH scenario reduced direct flow by 10% compared to Agri-CON and more groundwater flow contributed by Agri-IRWH (190 m3/ha) than Agri-CON (125 m3/ha). The overall result suggests that the water yield of the Woreda may not be negatively affected by the Agri-IRWH land use scenario. The technology in the Woreda benefited positively having an average benefit cost ratio of 4.2. Water harvesting for domestic use was not optimal that the value of the water per demand harvested was less than the amount of water needed. Storage tanks, series of check dams, gravel filled dams are an alternative solutions for water harvesting.

Keywords: water harvesting, SWAT model, land use scenario, Agri-CON, Agri-IRWH, trade off, benefit cost ratio

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Authors: Gianvito Colucci, Valeria Di Cosmo, Matteo Nicoli, Orsola Maria Robasto, Laura Savoldi

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The hydrogen value chain deployment is likely to be boosted in the near term by the energy security measures planned by European countries to face the recent energy crisis. In this context, some countries are recognized to have a crucial role in the geopolitics of hydrogen as importers, consumers and exporters. According to the European Hydrogen Backbone Initiative, Italy would be part of one of the 5 corridors that will shape the European hydrogen market. However, the set targets are very ambitious and require large investments to rapidly develop effective hydrogen policies: in this regard, scenario analysis is becoming increasingly important to support energy planning, and energy system optimization models appear to be suitable tools to quantitively carry on that kind of analysis. The work aims to assess the competitiveness of hydrogen in contributing to the Italian energy security in the coming years, under different price and import conditions, using the energy system model TEMOA-Italy. A wide spectrum of hydrogen technologies is included in the analysis, covering the production, storage, delivery, and end-uses stages. National production from fossil fuels with and without CCS, as well as electrolysis and import of low-carbon hydrogen from North Africa, are the supply solutions that would compete with other ones, such as natural gas, biomethane and electricity value chains, to satisfy sectoral energy needs (transport, industry, buildings, agriculture). Scenario analysis is then used to study the competition under different price and import conditions. The use of TEMOA-Italy allows the work to catch the interaction between the economy and technological detail, which is much needed in the energy policies assessment, while the transparency of the analysis and of the results is ensured by the full accessibility of the TEMOA open-source modeling framework.

Keywords: energy security, energy system optimization models, hydrogen, natural gas, open-source modeling, scenario analysis, TEMOA

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Authors: Ismail Kimuli

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With a steadfast economic development, the Greater Kampala metropolitan area (GKMA) faces increasing pressures to increasetheshare of low-carbon electricity in the energy balance, abate CO2 emissions and also restructure the transportation sector for a sustainable 2050. GKMA, is Uganda’s commercial, political, social, and industrial hub with a population of 4.1 million, contributing 60% tothe nation’s GDP and accounts for 80% of Uganda’s industrial sector.However, with the rampant anthropogenic interference that causes climate change, CO2 emissions in the metropolitan are contributing to global warming. Many economies across the globe are addressing this challengethrough development and analysis of sustainable energy portfolios.A sustainable energy portfolio is a low-carbon scenario. The study reviews the literature to establish the current energy management situation of GKMA and finds it wanting in addressing the immediate challenges associated with energy management of the metropolitan. Then, the study develops and examines a sustainable energy portfolio for GKMA using TIMES-VEDA and then presents it as an investigative low-carbon energy scenario that could propel the metropolitan sustainably towards 2050.Sustainability is plausible by optimizing the total primary energy supply, generating low-carbon electricity from hydropower and PV-solar renewables, improving heating technologies for residential & commercial sectors, and switching 90% of land passengers from road to a Kampala metro for a sustainable mid-century.

Keywords: GKMA, sustainability, TIMES-VEDA, low-carbon scenario

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Authors: Leila Rashidian, Abbas Ebrahimi

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The development of industrial activities, increase in fossil fuel consumption, vehicles, destruction of forests and grasslands, changes in land use, and population growth have caused to increase the amount of greenhouse gases especially CO₂ in the atmosphere in recent decades. This has led to global warming and climate change. In the present paper, we have investigated the trend of climate change according to the data simulation during the time interval of 2010-2030 in the Fars province. In this research, the daily climatic parameters such as maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and number of sunny hours during the 1977-2008 time interval for synoptic stations of Shiraz and Abadeh and during 1995-2008 for Lar stations and also the output of HADCM₃ model in 2010-2030 time interval have been used based on the A₂ propagation scenario. The results of the model show that the average temperature will increase by about 1 degree centigrade and the amount of precipitation will increase by 23.9% compared to the observational data. In conclusion, according to the temperature increase in this province, the amount of precipitation in the form of snow will be reduced and precipitations often will occur in the form of rain. This 1-degree centigrade increase during the season will reduce production by 6 to 10% because of shortening the growing period of wheat.

Keywords: climate change, Lars WG, HADCM3, Gillan province, climatic parameters, A2 scenario

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Authors: Buruk Kitachew Wossenyeleh

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Groundwater is the largest freshwater reservoir in the world. Like the other reservoirs of the hydrologic cycle, it is a finite resource. This study focused on the groundwater modeling of the Ter Kamerenbos well field to understand the groundwater flow system and the impact of different scenarios. The study area covers 68.9Km2 in the Brussels Capital Region and is situated in two river catchments, i.e., Zenne River and Woluwe Stream. The aquifer system has three layers, but in the modeling, they are considered as one layer due to their hydrogeological properties. The catchment aquifer system is replenished by direct recharge from rainfall. The groundwater recharge of the catchment is determined using the spatially distributed water balance model called WetSpass, and it varies annually from zero to 340mm. This groundwater recharge is used as the top boundary condition for the groundwater modeling of the study area. During the groundwater modeling using Processing MODFLOW, constant head boundary conditions are used in the north and south boundaries of the study area. For the east and west boundaries of the study area, head-dependent flow boundary conditions are used. The groundwater model is calibrated manually and automatically using observed hydraulic heads in 12 observation wells. The model performance evaluation showed that the root means the square error is 1.89m and that the NSE is 0.98. The head contour map of the simulated hydraulic heads indicates the flow direction in the catchment, mainly from the Woluwe to Zenne catchment. The simulated head in the study area varies from 13m to 78m. The higher hydraulic heads are found in the southwest of the study area, which has the forest as a land-use type. This calibrated model was run for the climate change scenario and well operation scenario. Climate change may cause the groundwater recharge to increase by 43% and decrease by 30% in 2100 from current conditions for the high and low climate change scenario, respectively. The groundwater head varies for a high climate change scenario from 13m to 82m, whereas for a low climate change scenario, it varies from 13m to 76m. If doubling of the pumping discharge assumed, the groundwater head varies from 13m to 76.5m. However, if the shutdown of the pumps is assumed, the head varies in the range of 13m to 79m. It is concluded that the groundwater model is done in a satisfactory way with some limitations, and the model output can be used to understand the aquifer system under steady-state conditions. Finally, some recommendations are made for the future use and improvement of the model.

Keywords: Ter Kamerenbos, groundwater modelling, WetSpass, climate change, well operation

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Authors: Ehsan Asgari, Meisam Afazeli, Nezhla Attarchian

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Post-earthquake fire is considered as a major threat in seismic areas. After an earthquake, fire is possible in structures. In this research, the effect of post-earthquake fire on steel moment frames with and without fireproofing coating is investigated. For this purpose, finite element method is employed. For the verification of finite element results, the results of an experimental study carried out by previous researchers are used, and the predicted FE results are compared with the test results, and good agreement is observed. After ensuring the accuracy of the predictions of finite element models, the effect of post-earthquake fire on the frames is investigated taking into account the parameters including the presence or absence of fire protection, frame design assumptions, earthquake type and different fire scenario. Ordinary fire and post-earthquake fire effect on the frames is also studied. The plastic hinges induced by earthquake in the structure are determined in the beam to the column connection and in panel zone. These areas should be accurately considered when providing fireproofing coatings. The results of the study show that the occurrence of fire beside corner columns is the most damaging scenario that results in progressive collapse of structure. It was also concluded that the behavior of structure in fire after a strong ground motion is significantly different from that in a normal fire.

Keywords: post earthquake fire, moment frame, finite element simulation, coupled temperature-displacement analysis, fire scenario

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Authors: Yuan-Lin Liu, Ye Li, Tian Xia

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Taxi-calling APPs have been used widely, while brought both benefits and a variety of issues for the taxi market. Many countries do not know whether the benefits are remarkable than the issues or not. This paper established a comparison between the basic scenario (2009-2012) and a taxi-calling software usage scenario (2012-2015) to explain the impact of taxi-calling APPs. The impacts of taxi-calling APPs illustrated by the comparison results are: 1) The supply and demand distribution is more balanced, extending from the city center to the suburb. The availability of taxi service has been improved in low density areas, thin market attribute has also been improved; 2)The ratio of short distance taxi trip decreased, long distance service increased, the utilization of mileage increased, and the rate of empty decreased; 3) The popularity of taxi-calling APPs was able to reduce the average empty distance, cruise time, empty mileage rate and average times of loading passengers, can also enhance the average operating speed, improve the taxi operating level, and reduce social cost although there are some disadvantages. This paper argues that the taxi industry and government can establish an integrated third-party credit information platform based on credit evaluated by the data of the drivers’ driving behaviors to supervise the drivers. Taxi-calling APPs under fully covered supervision in the mobile Internet environment will become a new trend.

Keywords: taxi, taxi-calling APPs, credit, scenario comparison

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Authors: Amirah Azzeri, Fatiha H. Shabaruddin, Scott A. McDonald, Rosmawati Mohamed, Maznah Dahlui

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Objective: A scaled-up treatment cascade with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy is necessary to achieve global WHO targets for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Malaysia. Recently, limited access to Sofosbuvir/Daclatasvir (SOF/DAC) is available through compulsory licensing, with future access to Sofosbuvir/Velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) expected through voluntary licensing due to recent agreements. SOF/VEL has superior clinical outcomes, particularly for cirrhotic stages, but has higher drug acquisition costs compared to SOF/DAC. It has been proposed that a stratified treatment cascade might be the most cost-efficient approach for Malaysia whereby all HCV patients are treated with SOF/DAC except for patients with cirrhosis who are treated with SOF/VEL. This study aimed to conduct a five-year budget impact analysis from the provider perspective of the proposed stratified treatment cascade for HCV treatment in Malaysia. Method: A disease progression model that was developed based on model-predicted HCV epidemiology data in Malaysia was used for the analysis, where all HCV patients in scenario A were treated with SOF/DAC for all disease stages while in scenario B, SOF/DAC was used only for non-cirrhotic patients and SOF/VEL was used for the cirrhotic patients. The model projections estimated the annual numbers of patients in care and the numbers of patients to be initiated on DAA treatment nationally. Healthcare costs associated with DAA therapy and disease stage monitoring was included to estimate the downstream cost implications. For scenario B, the estimated treatment uptake of SOF/VEL for cirrhotic patients were 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% and 100% for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively. Healthcare costs were estimated based on standard clinical pathways for DAA treatment described in recent guidelines. All costs were reported in US dollars (conversion rate US$1=RM4.09, the price year 2018). Scenario analysis was conducted for 5% and 10% reduction of SOF/VEL acquisition cost anticipated from the competitive market pricing of generic DAA in Malaysia. Results: The stratified treatment cascade with SOF/VEL in Scenario B was found to be cost-saving compared to Scenario A. A substantial portion of the cost reduction was due to the costs associated with DAA therapy which resulted in USD 40 thousand (year 1) to USD 443 thousand (year 5) savings annually, with cumulative savings of USD 1.1 million after 5 years. Cost reductions for disease stage monitoring were seen in year three onwards which resulted in cumulative savings of USD 1.1 thousand. Scenario analysis estimated cumulative savings of USD 1.24 to USD 1.35 million when the acquisition cost of SOF/VEL was reduced. Conclusion: A stratified treatment cascade with SOF/VEL was expected to be cost-saving and can results in a budget impact reduction in overall healthcare expenditure in Malaysia compared to treatment with SOF/DAC. The better clinical efficacy with SOF/VEL is expected to halt patients’ HCV disease progression and may reduce downstream costs of treating advanced disease stages. The findings of this analysis may be useful to inform healthcare policies for HCV treatment in Malaysia.

Keywords: Malaysia, direct acting antiviral, compulsory licensing, voluntary licensing

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Authors: Vishaka Agarwal

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Fashion is a dynamic entity. With globalisation, fashion is being retailed out to every corner of the world, and people are becoming fashion aware and adapting to the latest trends and look. In this scenario, the role of fashion in providing social change in society is strong. Every product that we use has a design element in it, and consumers prefer to buy those products. The aim of the paper is to look at the ways in which social change can be brought into society through ethical designing by designers taking into consideration the IPR issues. Review of research done by earlier researchers in studying the work done by designers to achieve social change in the society and also discussions with designers to understand the future plans looking at changing world scenario would be done. The paper concludes that fashion has a dynamic role to play in achieving social change in society, and designers are virtually controlling what people buy, wear, and consume globally. This paper would be useful to the social planners and designers in planning the future of society.

Keywords: fashion designers, ethics, intellectual property right, society

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Authors: Julio C. Ferreira, Maria T. A. Steiner

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The aim of this work is to present a solution procedure referred to here as the Multi-objective Optimization for Green Vehicle Routing Problem (MOOGVRP) to provide solutions for a case study. The proposed methodology consists of three stages to resolve Scenario A. Stage 1 consists of the “treatment” of data; Stage 2 consists of applying mathematical models of the p-Median Capacitated Problem (with the objectives of minimization of distances and homogenization of demands between groups) and the Asymmetric Traveling Salesman Problem (with the objectives of minimizing distances and minimizing time). The weighted method was used as the multi-objective procedure. In Stage 3, an analysis of the results is conducted, taking into consideration the environmental aspects related to the case study, more specifically with regard to fuel consumption and air pollutant emission. This methodology was applied to a (partial) database that addresses newspaper distribution in the municipality of Curitiba, Paraná State, Brazil. The preliminary findings for Scenario A showed that it was possible to improve the distribution of the load, reduce the mileage and the greenhouse gas by 17.32% and the journey time by 22.58% in comparison with the current scenario. The intention for future works is to use other multi-objective techniques and an expanded version of the database and explore the triple bottom line of sustainability.

Keywords: Asymmetric Traveling Salesman Problem, Green Vehicle Routing Problem, Multi-objective Optimization, p-Median Capacitated Problem

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